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Dan Williams
Bloomberg
David Gura
Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News welcome to the Bloomberg this Weekend podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini and Lisa Mateo. Thanks for joining us for today's selection conversations from the show.
David Westin
You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on the podcast, but also make sure to join us live every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7am Eastern.
Lisa Mateo
We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle and culture. The US Push to quickly begin high stakes negotiation with Iran well, it hit snag Friday. Talks on a permanent deal scheduled for Switzerland were delayed after Israel and Iran backed Hezbollah militants. They clashed Lebanon. A renewed cease fire was later agreed upon, but according to a post on X from the Lebanese army, Israeli attacks on Lebanon are ongoing. Now, despite the setback, President Trump said ships are flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz.
David Westin
Actually there were a lot of about
Dan Tenenbaum
700 of them and they're pouring out.
Raphael Warnock
The oil is all over the place. You're going to see oil drop so low. I hope the companies are happy about it, but we have a lot of victories.
Lisa Mateo
The president was speaking during the unveiling of the new Air Force One at the Joy Andrews base yesterday, but there's still no indication of a new start date for the discussions. Axios reporting US Special envoy Steve Witkoff is heading to Switzerland and Trump's envoy Jared Kushner is already there. Iran's foreign minister also reportedly planning to travel to Switzerland as well. Now meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reporting that the US Is working with Qatar on a plan to give Iran access to to billions of dollars in frozen funds for humanitarian spending. Under the deal, Qatar would allow purchases of food, medicine and other goods ordered by Iran's central bank. Iran has an estimated $100 billion in cash frozen worldwide.
David Westin
David and Christina, Lisa, thank you very much. You've laid the groundwork for us beautifully set the table. We're going to go now to Jerusalem. Reporter Dan Williams joining us again this morning. And Dan, pick up on what Lisa was talking about there. The state of plays as you understand it, of course, what's happening in Lebanon, certainly scuttling the start of these talks in Switzerland. What's the latest that you've heard about that ceasefire, that fragile ceasefire that went in place yesterday?
Dan Williams
Well, to judge from that News Summary, it would appear that US Envoys, albeit not the vice president one tier below, are headed out to Switzerland, a venue for those planned talks, as well as potentially the Iranian foreign minister. So it would appear that rather than scuppering this entire diplomacy, what we had for Iran yesterday was a shot across the bow, if you like, not a parting shot, a warning shot. It would appear that the Israelis stayed put in Lebanon. It would appear that the Americans are not yet ready to insist that the Israelis move out of Lebanon, something that would really unleash a crisis, perhaps an unprecedented crisis, recent years between the allies. So I expect that in the coming hours, perhaps by the close of the weekend, those talks in Lucerne will have started out at some level.
David Gura
Dan, I also want to ask you about the rhetoric we talked when you were with us last hour about this interesting turn in the U. S. Israeli relationship. But you also have your national security minister giving this kind of extraordinary tweet on Lebanon where he wrote, with all due respect to the all of Lebanon must burn. Exclamation point. With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. That, of course, was responded to by the Iranian foreign minister saying, essentially this is not a rant by a random lunatic, you know, this is a public post by the national security of Israel's regime. Talk to us about the feelings inside the Knesset, inside Israel. Is this causing further divisions within Netanyahu's own party as to what to do following this mou? Where do folks stand?
Dan Williams
Well, I think the Israeli minister you cited, he's the far rightest he's given to such rhetoric. In fact, it's come to be expected of him. And it's worth remembering that Israel's in an election year, there's an election form and so on. So he could actually have his eye on his constituency when he makes those threats, although I think many Israelis would share that opinion. Now, if you get past the rather baroque rhetoric, what he's referring to is Israel's delimitation when it comes to actions against Hezbollah, specifically avoiding Beirut, generally avoiding inland areas except the Bekar Valley which was bombed by Israel yesterday, and restraining those attacks to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, where Israel has created this 6 mile deep buffer zone. Some in the Israeli firmament think that shouldn't be the case. They think Hezbollah is not only undeterred, but it would have been emboldened by this MoU, which has basically been a lifeline for its sponsor in Iran and stands to bring funding new weaponry to Hezbollah. Hezbollah, until very recently was on the ropes in, in Lebanon, indeed within Israel. There is a great sense of shock and disappointment in this turn of events. Over the last week or week and a half, Trump plowing ahead effectively trying to get the Americans, the United States out of this war that he launched together with Israel in full concert. If I'm not mistaken, there was full parity in terms of the number of air force sorties carried out in Iran between Israel and the United States. But all of a sudden in the last two weeks, Israel has not only not been included in those talks with Iran, it hasn't always been briefed on those talks with Iran. So the Israelis feel they've been given short shrift there in the Middle East. They'll remain in the Middle East. They took quite a bit of the brunt of the Iranian missiles during that attack. There were 26 people killed in Israel during that war by Iranian missiles. And yes, Israel expects a potential potentially generational face off with Iran, its arch foe, and more immediately, more pressingly with Hezbollah, which is Iran's vanguard in Lebanon. So what you have is a very delicate, very unwieldy triangulation here of these peace talks. Iran will never make peace with Israel. It doesn't even like saying the word Israel. It generally prefers to call it the Zionist entity or such like. And at the same time, the Israelis are being called upon while not being part of the MoU, to abide by the MoU in terms of what Iran, their arch enemy, would like to see them do or not do in Lebanon. It's very unwieldy. The Iranian, the Israelis are basically laying down their battle lines. They're saying with bombs, with bullets, and with blood, Israeli and Lebanese blood. They're willing and they must stay in southern Lebanon for the protection of their northern communities.
David Westin
Dan, quickly, before we let you go, what is your latest read on the status of the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu? I should say, notably, we haven't heard from Prime Minister Netanyahu. He hasn't outwardly criticized what's happened here to the degree that his cabinet members have, be they on the far right or otherwise. What do you make of that? We heard the president saying to Axios in recent hours that he keeps Bibi sane in his words. We had Sarah Eisen of CNBC traveling to Jerusalem where she asked the prime minister just about the status of that relationship on the heels of a call in which he was cursed at by the president of the United States. What is your read in the minute we have left with you just of the status of that relationship?
Dan Williams
This is extraordinarily embarrassing for Netanyahu. He's also running for reelection. He's really branded himself as not only Mr. Security for Israel, but Mr. Statecraft, especially when it comes to handling the United States massaging U.S. public opinion. Whoever's in the Oval Office, he's made very few, I think only twice appeared in public since this MOU was signed. He has also said in those statements that it's time to work on re establishing replenishing the US Israeli relationship. However, I think what he's really hoping for is for this to blow over, for the US President to find another focus for his vitriol. It's clear that Trump feels bruised by this war in Iran. It didn't go the way he had hoped. Perhaps he didn't go the way he had been promised or reassured by Netanyahu. There is some bad blood that there clearly, however, we've seen Trump is transactional and frankly, he can turn on a dime, including on very recent critics or subjects of his criticism. I imagine there will be a restoration of those ties. The question is whether it will be enough to salvage Netanyahu's career and his reelection prospects.
David Gura
All right, Daniel Williams for us in Jerusalem. Thank you so much, Dan.
David Westin
So from one day into another, we're going to go to Dan Tenenbaum now. He's a partner with Oliver Wyman, senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Economic Statecraft Initiative, and somebody who has a host of experience when it comes to sanctions policy. And that's right where I want to go with you, Dan. Part of this memo of understanding has to do with the relaxation of sanctions that have been put in place on Iran for many years now. And I'm curious at a very granular level what that means, logistics of removing those sanctions and what it's going to mean for the Iranian economy if in fact that happens.
Dan Tenenbaum
Yeah, thanks, David. I think it's important to note, obviously Iran's been under significant sanctions for years. Some of these sanctions, including Inara, actually require congressional notification or verification. So there's a bigger question in terms of what type of sanctions relief can happen. It should be reminded to the viewers that when the JCPOA was enacted and went into effect in 2016, it took six months before sanctions relief kicked in. We've been hearing rumors that a general license was actually due to be released yesterday to begin allowing Iran to trade their oil without fear of consequence. Almost immediately. Immediately. But a big part of where Iran got the short end of the stick in the JCPOA was global banks wouldn't touch Iran even once secondary sanctions were lifted. And European and Asian firms could touch Iran without fear of consequence from the US hopefully they remember that. But I do think it's important to note that businesses are not clamoring to get back into Iran and these sanctions are going to take time to be lifted ultimately.
David Gura
There's also a bit of a sequencing issue here. Right. Because in that MoU, there's two things. There's a potential release of funds and there's sanctions relief. But if the funds were to be released before sanctions relief, those funds could only be used in line with the standing sanctions. Correct. They would have to be used for humanitarian purposes and fitting within those rules.
Dan Tenenbaum
That's correct. And there's also no guarantee that their money is good with the type of places they may want to buy humanitarian aid from. That is a bit of the challenge is Iran is radioactive from not just a sanctions standpoint, but a money laundering standpoint. And obviously the broader state of the regime makes it less desirable. The real question is that those mechanics, you've also got to remember Iran is a state sponsor of terror, which creates a whole other bunch of sanctions related issues that are lifted in a slightly different way. So this is not as simple as the Vice President may say. And simply Flipping a switch and lifting things. This should be done methodically. I mean The JCPOA took 20 months to negotiate. We're talking about a 60 day MOU that's already off to a pretty bumpy start.
David Gura
I hadn't realized that. So there is this group of sanctions, but you're saying even if they lift these, those terror supportive terror DOJ sanctions may not be part of that, they may be a separate issue.
Dan Tenenbaum
That's correct. So the state sponsor of terror designation is a separate regime that requires a different lifting process. And if you'll note, Syria for instance, is still deemed a state sponsor of terror even though we're relatively in good standing between the new Syrian government and the US but they're still deemed an sst. So it's not quite that straightforward for this lifting. There's a lot of unanswered questions going forward and will Iran comply with the terms of this? That toll free point was only good in their eyes for 60 days of this MoU and then they may begin charging tolls again.
David Westin
Dan, help us understand how you're thinking about the efficacy of sanctions in this environment. So I know that a criticism during the Biden administration for instance, was too many sanctions have been applied, they're losing their efficacy, they're being used too punitively in this world in which they are removed more quickly perhaps than they were slapped on to begin with. What does that say about the degree to which they work, that they can compel a country to do something or another?
Dan Tenenbaum
Look, sanctions helped force Iran to the negotiating table in 2015. I do think the efficacy of sanctions has been degraded over time. And if you look at this conflict, sanctions were largely abandoned in favor of kinetic warfare, which the President seems to be wildly supportive of. The sanctions are a little bit of a complexity here. Because you can take sanctions off the table, it doesn't mean businesses are going to want to touch a market market. And that's a bit of the challenge that Iran needs to balance if they really are eager to re engage in the global economy. And I'm not sure that's necessarily the top of their agenda. They're kind of a ways off. Senator Kennedy said it best. You mean you'd have to be homeschooled by a day drinker to think that Iran can actually do anything here. Meaning will they comply with the terms of this agreement, like demining the strait? I think there's a lot of pre steps that have to happen before the sanctions can truly be lifted. But that's the question of what this administration is going to do classic Kennedyism there, 100%. His words.
David Westin
Yes, of course.
David Gura
Of course. When you look at private sector reticence, even if these sanctions were nominally lifted or some of the sanctions were lifted, what are the big issues? Is it just what you were just talking about, instability and not being confident that the state of play is going to hold? Is it the Iranian currency and its negligible value on the market? Is it all of the above?
Dan Tenenbaum
And you think the simplest way, the plumbing, the economic plumbing isn't there? Are there correspondent banking relationships to allow free trade to occur? And the answer is no. Most global banks will not touch this business, nor do they have any interest in the near term in re engaging with Iran. We Learned this in 2015 with the JCPOA. A number of large European energy, automotive, aviation companies announced deals to reenter the market. But they actually couldn't make good on those because they couldn't finance anything. They couldn't find a bank to actually move capital around. That's very likely what will end up happening again. The private sector is really not interested in Iran right now.
David Westin
Funny thing happening now, Dan. We've got Vice President JD Vance on Fox News saying we're going to give this negotiation a chance. We're going to go after the enriched uranium stockpile. Then on the other side leaving sometime soon. Yes. All that update you have tasked in one of the semi official news agencies in Iran saying the Strait of Hormuz has been closed once again. So I think speaking to what you're talking about here just a moment ago, the lack of clarity, the amount of confusion that all parties, including businesses, face here, and that's where I want to go lastly with you if I could, Dan. What's it going to take businesses what's it going to take for businesses to become interested in or able to do business in Iran once again, I know that the Russia parallel isn't a great one here, but there was all of this talk, you know, a year into that conflict that maybe the appetite was changing and if things were to be relaxed, US Companies, global multinationals would be interested in getting into that market once again. What's the threshold, Dan, at which a company, a Western company would want to do business with Iran again?
Dan Tenenbaum
I mean, realistically, you're talking major Western companies being out of this market for 50 years. The likelihood of an about face in an environment where, especially in this Trump administration, the geopolitical winds can change so quickly. I know none of my larger clients that are interested in making a decision in an environment where you lack that predictability. For everything you just mentioned, we saw seven vessels transit the strait on Wednesday, six in and one out of the Strait of Hormuz. There really is no commerce happening here. That predictability needs to come back and you need evidence and time to demonstrate that predictability. But I don't see businesses is being interested in Iran in the foreseeable future. It's not that ripe a market and the risks are still too great that you can end up losing out if you attempt to go in putting people, putting capital on the ground.
David Gura
All right, our second Dan of the morning, Dan Tambaum, who is with Oliver Wyman, also a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Economic Statecraft Initiative. Thank you so much.
David Westin
Coming up here, my sit down interview with the Georgia senator Raphael Warnock, his comments on faith, on the state of democracy and on Elon Musk. That conversation coming right ahead here on Bloomberg this weekend on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television, bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business app. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend right after this.
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David Gura
of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com. Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock says democracy expands and contracts. This is it. Right now we're in a contraction moment. The Baptist pastor doesn't like to be called a politician. He prefers public servant. And he sat down with Bloomberg this weekend and our own David Gura to talk about America as we near its 250th birthday.
David Westin
Yeah, it was a great conversation. We spoke about a number of things, including Elon Musk and his trillion dollar wealth. We talked about Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who she is from Georgia. And we talked about voting rights as well. But we started off by talking about scripture and its lessons for our national character, which he writes about in his new book, the Crooked Places Made Straight.
Raphael Warnock
These are my reflections on the moral meaning of America. But Isaiah is central to that conversation. The prophet Isaiah, you know, is so important to my own Christian faith. And all the New Testament writers, all the gospel writers in some way quote this text that I lift up. And so it's a vision for the land. I call it a moral topography, reimagining who we can be together. And he says it in the poetic language of the prophet, you know, that every valley would be exalted, the mountains and hills made low. I use that to talk about equity, a leveling of the playing field, taking the low place, bringing them up a little bit higher in this moment of wealth inequality. And then he says, the crooked places shall be made straight. And when you listen to Isaiah, this righteous anger, you see, it begins even in chapter one where he says, he says that your princes. Thank you, politicians, your princes are rebels. They are companions of thieves. Everyone chases after a bribe. They do not fight for the widows or the orphans. Isaiah could have been talking about dark money in American politics in the 21st century.
David Westin
You're having this meditation on the meaning of America at a moment when I think a lot of Americans are. We're approaching the 250th birthday of this country. What does that anniversary mean to you? How do you intend to market?
Raphael Warnock
Well, I'm a proud American. I love this country. But there is no doubt that we are going through a dark moment. There are moments in the history of our country where, quite frankly, the democracy, this grand idea of government, of, by, and for the people. There are moments when the democracy expands and then there are moments when it contracts. We're in a contraction moment. They are those who are literally trying to squeeze the voices of ordinary people out of their democracy. And people, ordinary folks, I'm not talking normal people outside of Washington, D.C. they feel it, and they feel it on the left and on the right. They may have different perspectives on it, but they. But this sense that something is awry, something is broken. I think people feel that you write
David Westin
about gun violence, mass incarceration. Inequality is another subject in the book, something that you also talk about and preach about a lot as well. I imagine your draft was due before we learned that the world would have its first trillionaire in Elon Musk. How does that change your sense of inequality? Yes, in the US but around the world. And indeed, how worried are you that you have an individual who's added three additional zeros to his net worth?
Raphael Warnock
I think news of the first trillionaire in the world is not good news. I think that's bad news. It is. It is a bright indication of growing wealth inequality in this country. You know, I'm pro business and I'm pro worker. These crazy distinctions, these dichotomies that we build between the dichotomy between, you know, being pro worker, pro business. Workers need a business to work in. So. But workers ought to be able to enjoy at a reasonable level the prosperity that they are creating. And what we're seeing is that in our rigged and corrupt system, where we have the best politicians that money can buy, the tax system is structured for people like Elon Musk. He's not a trillionaire by accident. This is a structural issue. This is structural inequality. If the average person in Georgia right now that I represent, who's struggling to buy groceries, for whom gas is too high, that poor working class person that needs a little bit of support, and they're those who feel like, well, they're living on the government. Know if they had the subsidies that Elon Musk has enjoyed, they'd be a billionaire, too.
David Westin
I want to get your perspective on the health of the U.S. economy today. And you have an informed sense of that from being a politician, talking to your constituents.
Raphael Warnock
Don't call me a politician. That's a dirty word. I am an elected official. I'm a public servant in politics.
David Westin
Now, Mayor Culpa, you're also on The Banking Committee and the Finance Committee. And in the book, you, counsel, look at gdp, don't look at the nyse, that the stock market and the gains that we've seen. Give you a limited view of the health of this country today from an economic vantage. What are your thoughts on sort of how the US Economy is doing today?
Raphael Warnock
Well, you know, going back again, first trillionaire in the world, he's done pretty well as an immigrant, I should say, by the way. So I guess this administration doesn't have it out for all immigrants. But I think that the issue is not how well Wall street is doing, it's how well Main street is doing. And I'm paying close attention to the evolution of this economy. One of the things that we ought to be working about, working on is AI. We ought to be thinking about the perils and the promises of AI. I'm very concerned about the implications for the labor market. And I think we can't just sit by passively and let it happen. We need to figure out what is the correct regulatory structure for AI for all of these new technologies you mentioned. I'm on the Banking Committee, so I'm actively engaged in this conversation around cryptocurrency. Clearly, it's not going anywhere. It is a part of the economy. What are the appropriate guardrails that at the same time protect consumers, but at the same time will not stifle innovation? And, you know, these are concerns that I think about every day.
David Westin
There are regulators across the city that aren't staffed the way that they used to be. At the highest level, you look at the sec, there aren't. It's not a full commission there anymore. Kevin Warsh has just started at the Fed, and we're waiting on this decision from the Supreme Court on whether the president can fire Lisa Cook. You praised her as a fellow Georgian when she was nominated for that position. Noted. She is the first HBCU graduate to be nominated to the first black woman as well. Depending on how the Supreme Court rules, what will that say to you just about the integrity of regulation, the independence of these institutions in the country today?
Raphael Warnock
Well, I think there's a sense in which the Trump Vance administration is at war with our own government and with these civil servants and these commissions. I might also point out that, you know, he has not even committed to appointing both Republican and Democratic commissioners to a lot of these commissions. And that does a lot of damage when you're trying to figure out the regulatory structure of something like cryptocurrency. Trying to figure out a Way forward. In order to have sustained rules and understandings of how things will operate, it needs to be bipartisan. But Donald Trump, bar none, is the most gifted politician in my lifetime when it comes to dividing the people. He talks about being better than everybody else on a whole range of things. That is the one thing that he is, without a doubt, without a peer.
David Westin
You write about voting rights in this country, and I'll quote a bit here, the protection of our democracy hinges on voting rights because the right to vote is preservative of all other rights. You saw what the Supreme Court did just a couple of weeks ago, talked a lot about the ramifications of that at a very granular level. How do you pick up the pieces after a decision like that? For those who are outraged by what happens, what are the next steps that they should be taking? What would you counsel them on?
Raphael Warnock
Well, let's be clear. They're trying to take us back. They're trying to take the country back to a place that looks more like 1956 than 2026. And we have to say with a clear voice, we will not go back, that we are moving forward. We the people, as one country, one nation, even with our differences, we will move forward. And so I'm deeply disheartened, heartened by this wholesale attack on voting rights that we've seen from the Trump administration and his enablers, including those on the Supreme Court. This decision in the Louisiana case is deeply consequential, and it is deeply dishonest about the reality of partisanship and race in our country, particularly in the South. This idea that you can disaggregate partisan gerrymandering from racialized gerrymandering in our country is deeply, deeply dishonest. Basically, the court said you can draw a circle around black voters and figure out a way to diminish their voice. You just can't admit that race is driving it. Well, in a real sense, at the most fundamental, in the most fundamental way, it's power. That's right. Politicians who are craven, who want to stay in power, they do whatever is necessary to stay in power. And it's important to point out, because people see my face, and here I am, a United States senator, got elected statewide. But the reality is, or the other side of that reality is that the racial voter turnout gap has gotten wider since 2013. And in the states that used to be under the supervision, the preclearance requirement of Section 5, that racial turnout gap has doubled. So the outcome that we're seeing right now in the wake of this latest decision was wholly predictable.
David Gura
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David Gura
of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms at Mintmobile do. Another earthquake this week in UK politics, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing renewed calls to resign after the election of Andy Burnham to Parliament. Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, is expected to challenge Starmer as Labour Party labor leader, which would of course force him out of the job.
David Westin
Starmer has so far resisted calls to step down. Joining us now from London is James Wilcox, Bloomberg UK's politics reporter James Great to speak with you and put this into some context for us here. So this was a thumping, I think we could call a sizable victory that took place in this part of England. What's the path forward now? What should we be watching for next?
James Wilcox
I mean, that's such a good question. It is like I don't cover by elections like this because it is totally unprecedented. You don't get a sitting government going into a special election, increasing its majority by 23% and then doing so on a pitch of let's get rid of the current leader. But that is effectively what Andy Burnham has done. This is where it get mess, it gets messy. David, we don't know how Keir Starmer goes at this point. We are reporting this morning that 15 of his own cabinet ministers privately think it's inevitable that he will go. But he is publicly telling people that he wants to stay, that he wants to fight. And so probably there are three ways this goes out. Keith Dahmer steps down, which seems unlikely, but it might happen. He might set a path out. There is a formal leadership challenge, which would be sort of extremely messy and difficult, or there is some kind of form of contested leadership contest or even like a vote of confidence. We don't yet know. We are in kind of the calm before the storm at this point.
David Gura
You kind of answered my next question for me. But we have some sound from Starmer that I want to play for you. Just about saying that he would in fact run in that league leadership contest.
James Wilcox
There isn't a leadership contest when there is.
David Westin
There is one at the moment, but
James Wilcox
as I've said on many, many occasions, I don't think that's a good thing for the country to punch us into chaos. I would also add that now that Andy's won, which is really important, really good, is a huge asset to us. The now will inevitably be a Manchester mayoralty by election starting straight away. So it's important that we pull together for that. But if there is a contest, just to be clear with you, then yes,
David Westin
I will run, I will stand.
James Wilcox
And I've said repeatedly I'm not going to walk away from that.
David Gura
Why isn't he going to walk away? For all the reasons we've been talking about, momentum is really not in his favor, even within his own party. One of the things I've always admired about British politics is this kind of, you know, resignation of folks when they see that the room is not with them. Is this a departure from that? And what does he think he has to gain by trying to dig in here.
James Wilcox
So you could take it a couple ways. I think obviously you've got to say ego, you're in charge, you want to stay, keep the job. I mean, London property prices right now are killer, I can tell you. And finding a new house, that's a number 10 Downing street but right on the other side of this, Kirstan was elected after three Conservative Prime Ministers stepped down in one parliament. And he built his whole pitch on, I am going to be stable, we're going to have no more of that nonsense and I'm going to be in charge for five years and run a government. And so his genuine fear, I believe, from like talking to people inside the party is this would encourage some form of Labour Party internal divisions that would not be recoverable from. So he's like, if I step aside, what is the democratic process here? Like, look, Andy Burnham has won this incredible win in a by election and it really is not anything like anything I've covered, But that's only 70,000, 80,000 voters of the sort of one in 650 areas in the UK. It's not winning general election. And so Starmer's kind of point of view is, I did win a general election. That gives me five years to do what I want. Why should I give that up without a fight? That's anti democratic. That would be his view. Now, the Burnham view, they also look at the Conservatives and they go, please don't make this vicious, please don't make this messy. We have the votes. We will engage in a policy of everyone publicly calling for you to go if we have to. But we would much rather this be a bloodless coup. Andy Burnham gets signed in sort of office. There is a coronation, effectively what we call it in the uk, mirroring our sort of royals, and that is kind of the safest, most stable path. They are this weekend, behind the scenes, basically trying to argue this out and we'll see if they manage to sort of reach an agreement.
David Westin
James, I'm reading up on this and I see the names of a lot of graybeards, Jim o' Neill among them. Andy Haldane, another one. And I'm seeing reference to the UK fiscal rules circa 1997 for our US audience, our global audience, our non, and
David Gura
for your co anchor who did not read up on whatever this is.
David Westin
Yes, help us understand the significance of the UK fiscal rules and Mr. Burnham's propensity, if he has it, to kind of bend those going forward.
James Wilcox
I love it. First it's the algae and now it's the fiscal rules, David, you have such a hint of that. So unlike the us, the UK is really not trusted by foreign investors. It borrows at more than it puts away in tax revenues. And so it has a fiscal rule which is after we get to five years, the government says in that five year forecast it has to bounce the books. And although it's kind of just a rule that the Chancellor made up and the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, it has become something the markets treat as like this quite totemic. Labor is committed to not borrowing a ridiculous amount. It's kind of a vibes based thing. So look, Andy Burnham could come in and tweak the fiscal rules. And the reason why my great colleagues, UK government team Jacob Reed wrote this piece is because if you look at the people who are backing Andy Burnham, like you said, these are serious people. The likes of Richard Hughes used to run the Office of Budget Responsibility, which is the independent forecast that he's taken very seriously by Jim o', Neill, Lex Goldman, Andy Haldane. They are all very serious economists. The bond markets trust, as economists, they think this rule cuts off long term investment. They think it's short termist. But people are concerned in the markets about Andy Burnham. They are concerned he's more left wing than Keir Starmer. They're concerned he's promised to end 40 years of neoliberalism, as he calls it, and so he might have quite limited room to maneuver. I have to say the dog that has embarked on our coverage so far is this election happened Friday morning. The results came in guilt, market sterling were remarkably muted. And so I suspect what we're all watching for here is A how this contest plays out, which is still not a formal contest, I should say, but it is clearly going on. B, what Andy Burnham, who Andy Burnham picks to be his Chancellor, that is the big signal markets want to watch. And it's possible if he can win the market's confidence, he might be able to tweak the fiscal rules a bit. But currently they are seen as like this big totemic symbol that the government is committed to not spending ridiculously.
David Gura
James, we've only got about a minute left but a couple of headlines this week and a big one in Reuters talking about how London, for the sixth year in a row, I got to pull this up, did maintain six year in a row, did maintain its status as the top financial center in the world, ahead of New York and just ahead of Singapore coming up third. Is that something that's in the back of the minds of all of these parties as they try to maintain, maintain some sort of stability because you were just talking about how, you know, uncertainty breeds chaos in markets and people like predictability. Is that something that everybody has to think about London's reputation as a whole as his bastion of, of finance and he needs to have a government that is able to support those systems.
James Wilcox
I mean, it's not going to be Nancy Runner like Christine. No, sadly, I think when you talk to quite sensible people in these parties, and I do, they do care about this. They look at Brexit and look at the damage it's caused. They wonder how long London can keep that crown in the city. But Andy Burnham won in the north of England talking about rolling back the pitch to London, getting regions having better growth. So I'm not sure that's what they're thinking about at all.
David Westin
James Wolcott, great to speak with you. Thank you very much. Appreciate that perspective here on this Saturday morning.
Lisa Mateo
Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
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David Gura
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James Wilcox
Because nobody Plans, anything, bro.
David Westin
Good thing the Rogue's ready like that for real. Rain, dirt, whatever Available, all wheel drive, five modes. We still outside. And they got some kick, too.
Ryan Reynolds
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David Westin
The most in its class.
Dan Williams
It moves, moves.
David Westin
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Raphael Warnock
Load up.
Ryan Reynolds
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James Wilcox
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James Wilcox
class, excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
David Westin
Well, it's that time for this weekend's point of news quiz. I'm excited for it, having taken off a couple of days this week where I have not been reading the news
David Gura
and I was working but not focused on doing my usual studying. Angers you and makes you accuse me of cheating every time I do. So let's see how this goes. Lisa Mateo is here to explain.
David Westin
Lisa.
David Gura
And embarrass us both on television as we do and on radio and all the streaming platform.
David Westin
Yes, well said. Cross platform promotion set up guy.
James Wilcox
Hi.
Lisa Mateo
We're setting the bar high.
Raphael Warnock
Okay?
Lisa Mateo
So if you're playing along with us at home, please do. Because I don't know how well they're gonna do today.
David Gura
They have 30 chips.
Lisa Mateo
Okay, 30 chips they do have. They're gonna place their bets depending on how comfortable they feel across each category.
David Westin
Yes.
Lisa Mateo
We have some great categories for you today.
David Westin
Okay.
Lisa Mateo
Are you ready?
David Westin
I'm ready. What do we got?
Lisa Mateo
First category is bonds.
David Westin
Perennial.
Raphael Warnock
Perennial.
David Westin
Bloomberg category. Yes. Okay.
David Gura
I'm the David Gura category. All right.
Lisa Mateo
Feeling good. Feeling good already. The next one is streaming. Not too bad, right?
James Wilcox
Okay.
David Westin
Okay.
Lisa Mateo
And the last one is yogurt.
David Westin
You just talk about yogurt. We talked about yogurt.
Lisa Mateo
So you talk about. So now think about it.
David Westin
I'm going to think about it.
Lisa Mateo
How confident are you feeling about bonds?
David Gura
I'm not feeling great about 0% confident on bonds.
Lisa Mateo
So what are we doing?
David Westin
Berry Bonds. Yeah. Okay. Was that right there?
David Gura
Yeah. Okay, I'm going to.
Lisa Mateo
Oh, you're changing up the strategy, Christina.
Christina Raffini
Nope.
David Westin
She's doing three.
David Gura
No, no, no. You made me doubt myself. Now I'm doing it now. I'm sick of those three, three and three. I will just give you my bonds chips now. We can all move on.
Christina Raffini
All right.
Lisa Mateo
All right, David, we're going to the first one. So you're putting nothing on bonds. Okay, here we go.
David Gura
This is like your.
David Westin
That's my mo.
David Gura
You're married. All right, anyway.
David Westin
All right.
Lisa Mateo
Here's your question. If you're playing along. Scotland plans to issue bonds. The securities were given which nickname playing on UK Bonds and Scottish heritage. Think about it. Scottish heritage.
Raphael Warnock
Yeah.
Lisa Mateo
Now I'm going there.
David Westin
I didn't know that always stinks. Can I revalue yourself?
Lisa Mateo
No, you cannot touch your chips.
David Gura
Chips.
Christina Raffini
I have no idea.
Raphael Warnock
All right, I put.
Lisa Mateo
Are you ready?
David Westin
Tartan.
Lisa Mateo
Tartan. No, no, I put kilt.
David Westin
Oh, well, glad I put nothing down.
Ryan Reynolds
I'll take.
David Gura
I thought you guys chatted.
Lisa Mateo
I was so, so close.
David Gura
For our audio listeners, I need to understand the glee with which David Gura grabs my chips, thrust them in.
David Westin
I just want to make sure that Lisa has them in the bank of Mateo.
Lisa Mateo
But, yes, the Scottish National Party. They are hoping that they. Kilts. Encourage investors and bankers to deal directly with Scotland.
David Gura
So that's got a cute name.
David Westin
Kilt.
Lisa Mateo
Okay.
David Westin
Tart would have been good.
Lisa Mateo
Tartan. That was a good. That was good guess.
David Gura
I think they need another half point.
Lisa Mateo
That was a good guess.
David Westin
Okay.
Lisa Mateo
All right. Streaming.
David Westin
Yep.
Lisa Mateo
Feeling better about this one?
David Westin
Yes, I am.
Lisa Mateo
You have 20 down.
David Westin
Well, I, David, also spend a lot on streaming.
Lisa Mateo
You do? Christina has drank my coffee.
David Gura
Okay, what's up?
Lisa Mateo
Here's your question. Fox has agreed to acquire streaming platform Roku. So roku is a Japanese word for which number? Oh, different twist to this question. I like this. And I did not know this.
David Gura
I would have.
David Westin
Okay.
Lisa Mateo
What is a Japanese word?
David Gura
Zero idea.
David Westin
Yeah.
David Gura
Roku.
Dan Tenenbaum
All right.
David Westin
I said one.
Lisa Mateo
Japanese number one. Okay.
David Gura
I can only count to three.
Lisa Mateo
Five. Close six.
David Westin
Oh. The answer is because it's exciting.
Lisa Mateo
It was a 6 startup by founder Anthony Wood.
David Westin
Of course. Of course. I thought.
Lisa Mateo
I am doing fantastic. Look at all these chips in front of me. Because I get yours.
David Westin
I like how the dealer feels like pizza.
David Gura
It's not your money.
David Westin
Was that just the Google Translate that was up on the screens?
Dan Williams
Was it?
David Westin
That's amazing. I like that.
David Gura
All right, good job. Control room.
David Westin
Good job.
Lisa Mateo
Next category, Yogurt.
David Westin
And our last category.
Lisa Mateo
Yes. One of my favorites. Yogurt.
David Gura
I lose this category, I'm crawling out of the table.
David Westin
All right, yogurt.
Lisa Mateo
Let's start with Dannon or Danone. Yes, Whichever. Okay. Is suing which yogurt rival, claiming that it exaggerates the amount of protein in its products.
David Westin
I think that they do.
James Wilcox
I don't know.
Dan Tenenbaum
You do.
David Westin
I'm not going to wait into that.
Lisa Mateo
I have to compare protein now back and forth on both of these.
David Westin
Okay. And see, I'm just. What are the yogurt brands.
Lisa Mateo
I know. So who is den?
David Gura
And that's what. I can't decide if it's the fancy one or the regular one.
David Westin
Yoplait.
Lisa Mateo
And do you spell it correctly?
Christina Raffini
Oh, Lord.
Lisa Mateo
Okay.
David Westin
I wrote Chobani.
David Gura
I also wrote Chobani.
Lisa Mateo
Very good. You guys got it.
David Westin
Feels like a tie right here.
Lisa Mateo
So they're looking over, you know, the, the mislabeling of the products, how much protein. I have to actually compare labels now. Now I'm curious.
David Westin
Are you a protein? Your yogurt.
Lisa Mateo
I'm. I'm always looking at the protein. How much is in it now?
David Gura
Right, but that's. Are they adding protein to what naturally occurs?
David Westin
Absolutely.
Lisa Mateo
This is all in. In the milk. In the. The milk. The.
David Gura
No, I know, but I didn't know if they were like, you know, upping the number by adding more protein than naturally occurs.
Lisa Mateo
Like, I don't know. That's extra lawsuit, isn't it?
David Westin
Protein milk in a coffee at like Starbucks. You don't have.
Lisa Mateo
I do not. I just drink it black.
David Westin
There are limits. Okay.
Lisa Mateo
No milk in my coffee.
David Gura
It's protein shortage.
Lisa Mateo
You gotta do it. I think, I think we need a bonus.
David Westin
I think we do because it's actually a tie.
David Gura
All right.
Lisa Mateo
Definitely need the bonus.
David Gura
Okay.
Lisa Mateo
Oh, you're gonna like this. The bonus is social media.
David Westin
Ah, yes, yes.
Lisa Mateo
Okay, here we go. What country is restricting the telegram app after a major leak on a national medical exam? So what country is restricting the telegram app? Yeah, there was this big leak on the national medical exam. Not good news there, but trying to think of countries.
David Gura
Heavily used telegram.
David Westin
Just think of countries.
Lisa Mateo
I have no idea. Pick one.
David Gura
All right, It's a tough one.
Lisa Mateo
Germany.
David Gura
You pick Spain.
James Wilcox
India.
David Gura
That's a better guess.
David Westin
All right, I guess we've just tied as losers because I get those.
David Gura
We are equally. No, there's a bonus.
Lisa Mateo
You don't get those.
David Gura
It's a bonus.
David Westin
Wasn't that the bonus?
Lisa Mateo
Yeah, yeah, that was a bonus.
David Westin
So we just tied.
Lisa Mateo
I'll give it to you.
David Westin
I appreciate that. It's the way they should be. Peaceable.
Lisa Mateo
But there was a problem. No, in India. That's the problem. No, I was going to give you
David Gura
a little, little data point here. I was thinking China, because I was thinking national medical exams, but that's happening. Is not used there. So that's why I couldn't come up.
David Westin
India or Telegram. As the question was.
David Gura
Oh, shush. Telegram. That's what I meant. Thank you, pedantic co host.
Lisa Mateo
But people were cheating and that was the whole thing behind it.
David Gura
So during the exam or they got
Lisa Mateo
it beforehand and were shooting no, no, no, no questions. Questions had leaked out before. That's what happened. So that's how the cheating took place in India.
David Westin
You can test your knowledge on all 10 questions. The remaining seven point of news quiz multiple choice bloomberg.com/pointed do you play after the show? Do you go and do the other seven?
David Gura
No, I go to the park and then go to sleep.
David Westin
Fair enough.
David Gura
Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg this Weekend podcast. Don't forget to tune in live for the show every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7am Eastern.
David Westin
We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle and culture.
Christina Raffini
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Episode Title: Iran Says Hormuz Is Closed Again; Sit-Down with Sen. Warnock
Date: June 20, 2026
Hosts: David Gura, Christina Ruffini, Lisa Mateo
Key Guests: Dan Williams (Jerusalem reporter), Dan Tenenbaum (Oliver Wyman & Atlantic Council), Raphael Warnock (U.S. Senator, Georgia), James Wilcox (Bloomberg UK Politics)
This episode of Bloomberg This Weekend centers on three major topics:
The episode weaves together urgent international affairs, deep dives into democracy and equity, and vibrant discussions on global politics—with the hallmark Bloomberg mix of intelligence, nuance, and sharp wit.
Throughout, the tone is urgent, authoritative, but conversational—balancing hard news, analysis, and touches of humor or informality. The interviews are probing but personal, especially the sit-down with Warnock, which blends introspection with policy critique.
This episode provides in-depth context on:
It’s a comprehensive update from the global front lines—essential listening for anyone hoping to “make sense of the world.”
End of Summary