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- [00:00]
David Gura
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- [01:32]
David Gura
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News welcome to the Bloomberg this Weekend podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini and Lisa Mateo. Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from the show.
- [01:51]
Christina Raffini
You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on the podcast, but also make sure to join us live every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at at 7am Eastern.
- [01:59]
David Gura
We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business app bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle and culture. And we're start with some breaking news this morning. Senator Lindsey Graham died last night from what his office says was a quote, brief and sudden illness. He was 71 years old. The senior senator from South Carolina was one of President Trump's closest congressional allies and had just returned from a trip to Ukraine. There he met with President Zelensky on Friday.
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Christina Raffini
On Saturday night, emergency personnel responded to a call for cardiac arrest at Graham's home in Washington. That's according to NBC News which obtained police scanner audio. President Trump leading the tributes, posting this overnight. Quote, Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the greatest people and senators I've ever known, is dead. He was always working and was a true American patriot. Lindsey will be greatly missed. Details and arrangements to follow. So sad. Joining us now is Bloomberg congressional reporter Eric Watson. And, Eric, I want to start with this dynamic that was really kind of characteristic of Lindsey Graham at a time of great isolationism in the Republican Party. He was an avowed interventionalist traveling around the world, as Christina just mentioned, most recently in Ukraine. His passion was that. And I wonder if you could talk a bit about the role that he played in the US Senate over his four terms in the Senate.
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Eric Watson
Yeah. First of all, I just want to say I'm shocked by this news. He was a very nice person in the hallway, very personable and friendly, and I'm very surprised and saddened by it. He was an interventionalist, much in the mold of Mitch McConnell and the late John McCain, a breed of Republican that seems to be phasing out in the America first era. He just announced the Russia sanctions bill that he's going to try to push in the Senate on Friday after a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in Ukraine. Very much an interventionist, very much a warhawk. You know, he was very much in favor of the bombing of Iran, of trying to replace the regime there. Just a very assertive foreign policy voice that's going to leave that faction of the party without a very, very clear champion right now in the debates to come, someone also a senior appropriator, someone who, you know, fought to increase the military budget as well as, you know, leading one of the leaders on the massive Republican cuts that that went through. So, you know, this is going to lead an opening in the Senate. I'm hearing from a source that Joe Wilson, the representative, senior representative on the House side, is very much interested in running for this seat. It'll be a special primary and could be appointed by Governor McMaster in the coming days. You know, it's hard to see who else from the delegation could really unite the group. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman or two other Republicans that are prominent in the delegation. They ran against each other for governor. So, you know, it's a very much a developing story. But this is, this is someone, one of the biggest personalities, biggest characters in the Senate. And he's going to be going to be missed by his colleagues, I think.
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David Gura
And Joe Wilson, for those who are not familiar with him. I remember I wrote a piece back in 2009, he was the gentleman who shouted out, you lie during Obama's joint address to Congress, which at the time was controversial for heated political rhetoric. How the ball has moved in that time. But I first met Lindsey Graham, and
- [05:12]
Eric Watson
his son is likely to be the next governor. Alan Wilson won the JP So it's the rise, potential rise of the Wilson dynasty.
- [05:19]
David Gura
Be something to watch there. I mean, we were talking before we came on the air. I first met Senator Graham in 2016 when he was endorsing Jeb Bush for president and fighting very strongly against a candidate he didn't believe in, and that was Donald Trump. I have pulled some quotes from him this morning in that era saying that Trump was reckless and he says things that don't make sense. Sense. Can you talk a little bit about Graham's political evolution and his evolving friendship with President Trump? Trump is quoted as saying he's one of his best friends. How did we get there?
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Eric Watson
You know, it's been up and down their relationship. Certainly Graham, early on, I remember being at a big gala dinner in Washington where he was on C Span, where he made fun of President Trump. You know, then he became a backer. And then after the January 6 riots, he was very critical, even saying he's done with the president. I'm very upset with the way that that was handled. This is the January 6th riot protesting Biden's victory that resulted in the beating up of cops. And then Graham went back into the fold. I think Graham always wanted to be in the mix, wanted to be influential, and he felt, you know, it was his duty, especially given the views he had on Israel, strong supporter of Israel, Iran and rest of the foreign policy portfolio, to be influential and be close to the president. So I think, you know, and he continued to push, even out to his last dying breaths here, pushing this Russia sanctions bill that had been stalled for years, but saying that it was going to move forward on Friday to sort of try to force Vladimir Putin to make a peace in Ukraine.
- [06:52]
Christina Raffini
Eric, last question here, Christina, asking about that friendship, the evolution of that friendship. He was also a very useful person for President Trump to have in the US Senate. He chaired the Judiciary Committee for many years and really worked quite ardently to enact what President Trump wanted. To see a lot more judges confirmed by that committee. Talk a bit about that, if you would. Just the way that he executed the policy vision of this president.
- [07:15]
Eric Watson
Oh, I know. I think, you know, he was chairman during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings, very much defending Kavanaugh, came under attacks for his behavior as a teenager, you know, and, and that really set him up to be an ally again of President Trump. So I think he's always, you know, he's a traditional conservative in many, many ways. You know, having fought for the tax cuts, even though he once was a deficit hawk and these tax cuts cost $4 trillion, he, he quickly got behind them and made them happen, you know, by adjusting the way that they are accounted for. So, you know, he was obviously someone who always fought to be at the center of everything. And I would say someone who actually believed in the free media. He was someone who talked to reporters, who believed, you know, that we're not the enemies of the people. And I did appreciate that.
- [08:02]
David Gura
All right, Eric Watson, thank you so much for joining us. I know it was an early phone call from us, but it was quite a surprise. Overnight, Lindsey Graham, the senator from South Carolina, dead at 71. Thank you so much.
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Christina Raffini
More breaking news overnight, the US military hit 140 targets in Iran. New video released by CENTCOM showing dramatic explosions saying it struck missile and drone sites, naval assets, ammunition storage facilities. And more is coming after it says the Iranian navy attacked a merchant ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
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David Gura
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards are fighting back this morning, saying they've targeted American assets across the Middle East. Abir Abu Omar is a Bloomberg Release correspondent. She's joining us now from Dubai. And Shannon Kingston is ABC News State Department reporter. She is joining us from Washington. Aberra, I want to start with you. Do we have any kind of idea of what was hit overnight? I was seeing reports as we were coming in this morning of possibly the death of a child in Qatar, also strikes in Oman and elsewhere, maybe Jordan throughout the region. What is the damage report as everyone's waking up to day?
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Abir Abu Omar
Yeah, good morning, guys. So we're hearing of these explosions happening across the Middle east and these tit for tat attacks continue to happen. They started at the beginning of this week or the past week, should I say, when Iran targeted a Qatar flagged ship in the Strait of Hormuz and then the US Went on to attack Iran military targets there for two straight days. Now. It seemed to have calmed down throughout the, the end of last week at least, especially after President Trump came out during the Naito summit and said that as far as he's concerned, the ceasefire is over. But then we heard some caveats from the people around him, but also from the Middle Eastern part of the world where we heard the talks are set to continue despite that very strong escalation in the rhetoric. But then over the weekend and especially today, this Cyprus flagged ship was hit by Iran. We're hearing it just at the top of your show. I was just following the news. We're seeing headlines across the Bloomberg terminal saying that Aman, which is which works alongside Iran to sort of monitor the Strait of Hormuz, said that it rescued 23 crew members of the GFS Galaxy after the incident. This is the Cyprus flagged ship. And so the US as David had mentioned, targeted 140 targets across Iran, most of those military targets earlier in the week it had targeted bridges, some does a dozen people or so were killed in Iran. Some 78 people were injured. And just this morning we're hearing these sirens across the Middle east in the uae, in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Christina, as you've mentioned as well, Qatar saying that three people were injured, including a child. And so we're seeing this escalation in the rhetoric quite a bit this morning. It's still unclear if we're going to see a return to diplomacy, a return to those technical talks that were taking place up until a couple of weeks ago in Doha. But it seems that the situation is slightly, a little bit more complicated, especially with Texas saying that Iran will pay and this is a quote from him, will pay for the damage that it had ensued on on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran for on its own saying that the Strait of Hormuz is shut and that no ships can make movements. So we're back to, I don't want to say square one because we're not seeing a kinetic sort of warfare similar to what we've seen in March, but we're going back to a place that we didn't think we would be at after that MOU was signed just three, three and a half weeks ago.
- [11:30]
Christina Raffini
Shannon, let me pick up on that point about these talks, the technical talks that were supposed to be underway this weekend. We know the Iranian foreign minister traveled to Oman. Seems unclear if there were any US Representatives who were there as well. What is your sense of the status of those looking at the backdrop to all of this, the wide geography that you just mentioned a moment ago that's been hit overnight, you know, what grounds for optimism are there here that these technical talks are to continue as we look at the end of that 60 day period, not too far off?
- [11:56]
Shannon Kingston
Well, David, one of the reasons that the events of the last 12 hours or so have been so head spinning is that there was at least a brief moment yesterday where it seemed like diplomacy had a chance at least to win the day. We did see those high level talks between mediating powers and an Iranian delegation of negotiators. The US Was not directly involved, but they were closely monitoring the play by play from afar. And sources say that during that high level meeting, the Omanis laid out a plan to fully open both lanes of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iranians indicated that maybe this was something that could work for them. But they said they had to go back to their country first to talk to the highest levels of leadership and see if they could get buy in. Well, it wasn't long after that delegation landed back in Iran that we did see the IRGC navy come out and say that it was fully closing the strait and that it had hit that commercial vessel in the waterway, hitting another commercial ship yet again. So that was a very clear answer and very far away from what the Trump administration was hoping to accomplish. But we have seen through the conflict that U.S. officials have said that there are these more moderate factions within the Iranian government now that are willing to listen, that they can negotiate with. But what the events overnight prove is that so long as that there are these hardliners within the Iranian government and so long as those hardliners are willing and able to pull the trigger on military action, on maximalist stances, that those are going to be the voices that are much louder at the end of the day.
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David Gura
And there was some reporting from our colleagues at CBS yesterday that Iran had possibly said we shouldn't have done those strikes. That was a bit of one of those factions you mentioned kind of getting out over ahead of where we wanted to be operationally. Shannon, I want to follow up with you as well because I'm wondering if we've heard any more about these US Installations throughout the region and if it's changed the force posture of any of the embassies. I know some of the embassies, embassies there have been on authorized departure, ordered departure for months now. Friends in the, in the embassy in Israel have not been able to leave that embassy for months and months. I'm wondering if you've seen any of those alerts go out or warnings to citizens in the region. What is the status of diplomats and what are the warnings for Americans who might be in harm's way?
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Shannon Kingston
That's a great question. And we have seen that the security posture at embassies, many on ordered or authorized departure, largely hasn't changed the one difference at the embassy in Kuwait, that was the only one where operations were fully suspended during the hottest days of the conflict that was recently reopened. The secretary of state, Marco Rubio, he took a trip there, attended the flag raising himself. But there is no question that this in person diplomacy has been degraded somewhat because the US Diplomats just can't have the same, same position that they did have before this conflict. That was one of the reasons that Secretary Rubio did travel to the region. He wanted to meet with Gulf allies. He wanted to assure them that their security was of the utmost importance to the Trump administration. Now, officials do say that that was a successful mission. But clearly these widespread strikes by Iran overnight, even though they are largely expected, when we see incidents like this, it's clear that from the Gulf allies, Gulf partners are saying this really can't be the new normal. It's been bad enough, but if it continues unchecked, there are going to be some very real consequences for their economies appear.
- [15:26]
Christina Raffini
I want to pick up on that and just go back to what you mentioned a moment ago. All of the places that have been hit overnight. So we're looking at an air base in Jordan, attacks on Qatar, Kuwait, communications array, radar installation, Bahrain as well. Shannon mentioning a moment ago, just sort of the way that these Gulf allies are watching all of this unfold and I'm curious, sort of among them, is there much coalescing in terms of encouraging these talks to continue, stressing the importance there being some resolution to this? Again, we're kind of focused on this binary between the US And Iran. Yes. With the help of Pakistan and with other nations kind of trying to force those, those conversations to take place. Are we seeing a wider movement to kind of convey the seriousness of this kind of push for some resolution here?
- [16:07]
Abir Abu Omar
Yeah, David, look, Qatar is one of them. Right. Qatar is one of or has emerged as one of the key mediators over the past few weeks or so to try to bring a resolution to this. But even Qatar today was attacked. And again, we mentioned the three people injured in Qatar. And so it does seem like there is some kind of, you know, lack of communication within Iran's own leadership. For example, we've seen, we haven't seen at all Mushaba Khamenei, who is the current supreme leader. But we've seen a post of him on X saying that Iran must seek revenge for the killing of his late father, whose funeral was taking place last week where the suspended talks were happening because of that mass mourning. But when it comes to GCC nations, yes, behind the scenes, what we've reported on multiple times is that they're really pushing for an end to this war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz simply because for the time being, it is still the waterway where the majority of their crude exports go through. Now, again, we've reported that Saudi Arabia, the uae, have been doubling down on other routes to try to get their shipments across. But realistically, that's going to take a year to 18 months to start working. And then for Qatar's LNG shipments, we reported when the MOU was signed that Qatar will start ramping up production of its LNG shipments. And then just last week, we reported that actually they're going to pause that because of the skirmishes that we're seeing across the Strait of Hormuz. But when it comes to officials from the gcc, we heard last week from Anwar Gargach. He is a senior adviser to the UAE's president, essentially calling Iran a rogue player, saying that these skirmishes that, that are happening in the Strait of Hormuz just proved that it doesn't want an end to the war. And just now we're hearing from Saudi officials saying that what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz also prove that it really doesn't want an end to the war. So the question here really is what does Iran want and how can we arrive at those concessions that they agreed on with the United States? It does feel for the time being that the nuclear component of that MOU, that 14 concession MRU, David, that we've reported on, it does feel like the nuclear component has taken a backseat. It does feel like the Strait of Hormuz is front and center. And those attacks that are happening there are everyone's concern at the time being.
- [18:26]
David Gura
Well, that's true. I mean, we've talked about how it's such an easier trigger for them to pull and it has almost an instantaneous reaction from the world, whereas the nuclear threat is just, it's more amorphous and it's, it's not, it's not impacting your day to day, not at the moment. Shannon, before we let you go, I do want to ask you about Senator Lindsey Graham, who we found out overnight has passed away because I know we've traveled together on State Department trips. And it's always so funny to me that Lindsey Graham is one of those people that world leaders have met almost as often as the US President. He seems to always be everywhere and almost a de facto Secretary of state. Can you talk about the role Graham played internationally and kind of what his standing was in these countries, especially countries that are closely allied with the US when it comes to military cooperation.
- [19:12]
Shannon Kingston
That's right. And many world leaders have met with him more times than they have the sitting president of the United States. You don't have to go back very far. In fact, it was just this last week that Senator Graham traveled to Ukraine. He made that long, arduous, sometimes dangerous journey to go to Kyiv and meet with President Zelensky, sat down with him face to face for his 10th wartime visit to Ukraine. He has, of course, been a major supporter of that country throughout its war with Russia and has been pushing for harsher sanctions against Russia to try to bolster Ukraine. He said just before he died that finally a Trump administration agreement had been reached with a bipartisan group of senators to push forward his package of sanctions and that they were looking forward to doing that in the coming weeks. It's very likely that we'll see those sanctions, that new package pushed forward in his honor because that is something that he would want his legacy to reflect.
- [20:10]
David Gura
All right, Shannon Kingston joining us from ABC News. And our colleague Abir Abu Omar is joining us from Dubai. Thank you both so much.
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Abir Abu Omar
Thank you both.
- [20:19]
Christina Raffini
Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
- [20:25]
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Christina Raffini
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- [22:59]
Christina Raffini
Joining us now is former U.S. ambassador to NATO, former U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations, Kurt Volker. Ambassador Volker, great to have you with us. And I want to start with Lindsey Graham and just give you the opportunity to talk about the relationship that you had with him over the years. I know that the work you were doing with NATO with Ukraine, these were issues that Senator Graham cared deeply about. And I'm wondering how you're processing the news of his death on this Sunday morning.
- [23:23]
Kurt Volker
Well, thank you very much. It's really shocking to hear. He was just so vibrant, such a big figure. I've known him really since the 90s when I worked one year as detail in Senator John McCain's office and I met him then. I traveled with him many times, including the Munich Security Conference as part of the U.S. delegation there. And then on Ukraine, Senator Graham called me very early on after Russia's full scale invasion, wanted to talk to me about what was happening and then invited me to brief the Senate Republican Conference to talk about what was happening in Ukraine. So he really played a major and very direct role. And it's really shocking and saddening to hear the news of his passing.
- [24:06]
David Gura
I do want to ask you, given your background as former U.S. ambassador to NATO, about this Ankara summit we just had. Everyone was given a gun by the president at the end and yet no one shot each other. It seemed to have been pretty amicable. What is your take out of that summit?
- [24:22]
Shannon Kingston
We, we, we use this word very
- [24:24]
David Gura
sparingly on this show, but the vibes seem pretty positive considering how worried folks were going into it. Do you think there was a bit of a sea change? Just give us your outlook.
- [24:34]
Kurt Volker
Yeah. Well, first off, I agree. I think it was a very positive summit and very good for President Air to work, who was hosting, but also very good for President Trump and for NATO. And we can just tick off all the things that happened or didn't happen. President Trump came out of the meeting and said, we had a great deal of unity. I don't think he's ever talked about the word unity with respect to NATO before. We had a lot of NATO unity, a lot of love in that room, he said. We had statements about freedom of navigation and support for the United States on Iran, something that I think President Trump wanted to hear. We had that meeting with President Zelensky, also very positive. You had the president making an announcement that we're going to allow Ukraine to use Patriot missiles or to build Patriot missiles under a license in Ukraine. That's a very big step, very important, very good for Ukraine. Very tough messaging for Putin in that respect. You had the decisions on continued inconsistency increases in defense spending by European allies, something President Trump has been pushing for. Some of that is going into defense industry development in Europe, which they desperately need. So this all around, this was a very positive meeting and a very strong message to Vladimir Putin.
- [25:50]
Christina Raffini
What do you attribute that to? So for many NATO summits, and the peculiarity of these summits is they happen every year and they're pretty short. But at the most recent one, the president has really hammered on this funding issue. He did that at this one, but it seems like perhaps he's moved on from that. I think also of what Congressman Michael McCaul told us yesterday from Kiev when we spoke to him on the program, that President Trump likes a winner and the fact that kind of the way that this war is being waged in Ukraine, how it's changed, how Ukraine is kind of has the upper hand now, may have had President Trump come around to this. I'm curious how you see it, why you think the rhetoric, why the president's position seems to have changed as much as it has.
- [26:25]
Kurt Volker
Right. Well, with respect to NATO, I would not say that President Trump has moved on from pushing allies on defense betting. He's going to do that every time somebody pushes his NATO button. He's going to say Europe has to do more. That's just a given. And I think he's happy because they are doing more. So he's getting what he wanted, but he's going to keep pushing them as well. So that's one part. The other is the war against Iran doing come out, at least not yet the way that President Trump wanted. And I think you only want a certain number of problems at a time So I think he wants to stabilize the war against Iran, keep oil and gas prices down. You don't need a problem with NATO at the same time. So that's a part of it. And also he didn't want to do anything to embarrass President Erdogan, who was hosting the summit. So for a number of reasons, this was going to be a good NATO summit. It turned out to be a very good, good one. Now, with respect to President Zelensky, I think that's part of it. He does respect a winner. Remember a year and a half ago when President Zelensky was in the Oval Office and President Trump said, you don't have any cards? Well, that is not true. It wasn't true then, but it's certainly visibly not true now. President Zelensky has an advantage over Russia when it comes to drones, counter drones, electronic warfare, defense technology and innovation, logistics, many things that he is doing that Putin is not able to do. And by bringing the long range strikes into Russia and hitting Russia's source of money, which is the oil and gas industry and their ability to refine, to provide fuel, both for the Russian people, but also for the military, this is having a real impact on the finances and the military of Russia. So it is changing the dynamic there. And I think President Zelensky himself also has learned a lot about how to deal with President Trump in that meeting again a year and a half ago, seemed like he was trying to argue and convince President Trump and J.D. vance that he's right. That's, that's not something that you want to do and not something you certainly don't want to do on camera and disagree in public with President Trump. This time it was clear that he was disciplined. He didn't want to talk too much in public. They were going to have their private meeting. He wanted it to be a positive tone. He joked a little bit. That's the right way to handle things.
- [28:44]
David Gura
And possibly due to some coaching by some NATO allies, including Margaret, who got some flack from a reporter asking how he maintains his self respect by this, you know, appeasement policy. But to your point, it does seem to be working. I want to ask you about those cards that Ukraine now feels it has. There's a very interesting video this week of a multimillion dollar Russian tank abandoned by its crew, hatches Left open and $150 Ukrainian drone flying in and destroying it. When you look at the asymmetric cost of this warfare, I'm wondering how long that's sustainable for Russia and The other part of this is, of course, the hits on the oil refineries and the gas lines in Moscow. Because Russia has been able to insulate itself pretty well from the impact of those sanctions and being kicked off swift, possibly better than people expected. Is this really where we're going to start to see an impact on the economy?
- [29:32]
Kurt Volker
Yes, you're absolutely right. So those are the factors. The, and you put it the right way, it's how long can Russia do this? It is not sustainable. You can't lose more people on the battlefield than you can recruit. You can't spend more money than you have. At some point this is going to be, you know, this is, this is going to have to stop. What Ukraine is doing is trying to accelerate the timeline and say we've got to get Russia to the point of decision where they say, okay, we have to stop this. Russia's not there. Putin is not there. Putin really wants to continue the war. He really wants to subjugate Ukraine to Russia. He's going to keep fighting. He probably wants to have another shot at the winter. Remember last winter they tried to, to shut off Ukraine's electricity. They probably want to do that again and see if they can bring Ukraine down. It's not going to work. I think Ukraine's in a stronger position this winter than last winter. But Putin may want to try that. The idea is shortening the timeline and this is why. Measures, steps, decisions, such as letting Ukraine produce its own Patriot missiles, such as the European Union giving them a 90 billion billion euro loan for defense. Those things are signals to Putin that the future is going to be worse, not better for Russia.
- [30:50]
Christina Raffini
We have about a minute left. I just want to ask about the council you'd give the president on engagement with, with President Putin. In the run up to this summit, he had an 85 minute phone call with Vladimir Putin. Would you counsel more, engagement less, or how do you see this kind of ending if in a diplomatic space?
- [31:06]
Kurt Volker
Right. Well, President Trump told talks to Vladimir Putin, you know, that's a choice. He thinks it's important to have a channel of dialogue. I think he has begun to realize that Putin lies to him all the time. That Putin says one thing about the battlefield, it's not true. He says he wants peace, but then he goes and kills Ukrainian civilians. So he says he wants to negotiate, but then you try to create a negotiation and he won't meet with Zelenskyy and he won't give up anything. He just wants even more in the negotiations that he has on the ground. So I think President Trump has gotten very frustrated with Putin for really not playing it straight.
- [31:40]
David Gura
All right, Ambassador Kurt Volcker, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate your insight on this Sunday. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
- [31:53]
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Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on Public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public
- [32:49]
Christina Raffini
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisors complete
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Kurt Volker
disclosures available@public.com disclosures
- [33:05]
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- [34:03]
Volvo Advertiser
The Volvo XC60 is designed to help keep you safe with an advanced system of features that feel like an extension of your own. Like another set of eyes when you're backing out of the driveway, an extra hand on the wheel helping you stay in your lane or the sound alerting you about something ahead. Just in case you missed it, discover the Volvo XC60 safety. That's more than a feature. Visit volvocars.com US driver is responsible for safe operation at all times.
- [34:42]
Christina Raffini
Well, five of the largest US Banks are set to release earnings on Tuesday. On a day so busy, even Mike Mayo, Wall street swollest bank analyst is skipping the gym. Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citi will all release their earnings within the same hour.
- [34:57]
David Gura
I feel like this is an inside joke to which I'm not. For which I'm not ready. All right, all right, all right. And let it in the week for more for the more sedentary among us later in the week, Netflix is going to kick off tech earnings streaming platform is struggling with slowing growth and increasingly fragmented industry. Joining us now are Bloomberg intelligence senior analysts for US Banks Herman Chan and the editor of Investopedia, Caleb Silver.
- [35:18]
Christina Raffini
All right, Mike Mayo, known weightlifter, lobbyist.
- [35:22]
David Gura
So it's the fact that he's skipping the gym. It's a big indicates how big this is. Do we.
- [35:26]
Christina Raffini
Herman is a very muscular, the second smallest on Wall Street.
- [35:30]
Herman Chan
I'll take that. Yes, please. Thank you very much. I'm going to Barry stories after the family show.
- [35:36]
David Gura
I'm going to take a nap. All right. But you go work out. Do we always get these all at once? And I was reading some analysis from Bloomberg which I do now breed bank analysis saying that it's expected to be good but not amazing. Why is that?
- [35:50]
Herman Chan
Right. So banks typically try to stagger their earnings but for some reason this earnings calendar, there's five in one day and bank of America and JP Morgan have competing earnings call times at the same time. So yeah, it's great for US bank analysts trying to listen to two earnings calls at the same time. But we're expecting really strong results overall for the banking sector this quarter. The banks have really shrugged off some of these geo economic issues and the K shaped economy that we continue to hear about. There's really strong earnings power both on the trading side, the investment banking side and on the lending side. You're typical bread and butter. Commercial lending is really strong. So about 20% year over year growth. So yeah, we're looking for really good results overall.
- [36:34]
Christina Raffini
Okay, let me ask you just about the role that Space X is going to play in all of this. So for so many weeks we were focused on Space X's debut on Wall street now that Goldman and Morgan were kind of running that ipo. But I don't think that there was a major firm on Wall street that wasn't involved somehow. Is that going to be manifest in these results as we see the them?
- [36:51]
Caleb Silver
Yeah, everyone has a piece of it. And that's just some of the activity that went on that's going to help their bottom lines. The the M and A activity, just the trading activity, which has been pretty robust among institutions, that's going to be good for banks too. I think what we want to hear is how healthy is the Consumer bank of America? Citi will give us a pretty good window on that Wells as well. But also the net interest margins. We know where interest rates are, we know where they're probably going to be for the next few months. What does that mean for bank profitability and overall what is the health of businesses and borrowers?
- [37:20]
David Gura
Herman, what are some of the concerns folks have with these larger banks? I was reading this morning that investors want assurances they can kind of keep this momentum going in light of valuations, higher gas prices. And also we had this big kerfuffle about private credit. Did that not turn. Are we not worried about that anymore? I still so much time learning about private credit.
- [37:41]
Herman Chan
It's something that's still lingering on the sidelines. So it's something that it's a big growth driver. I mentioned the commercial lending growth. The private credit side of things is driving a lot of that. That being said, banks gave really heavy assurances in the prior earnings earnings season that they're very comfortable with their exposure to private credits. They've underwritten it very conservatively and it would take a lot of of decline in the overall market and you would be more concerned about the overall economy rather than their private credit exposure. So, so we have that going on. The other risk that we're looking at is really on the deposit side given the fact that there's expected so much robust lending, that deposit competition has really intensified. So their funding costs would would presumably increase given the fact that we're not really expecting expecting any more interest rate cuts over the back half of this year. That really contrasts expectation heading into 2026 where there was two rate cuts baked in. So there's an evolving interest rate backdrop that could affect banks net interest margins going forward.
- [38:50]
Christina Raffini
We want to get into Netflix, but before we do that, I have a question for, for each of you. I'd love each you to answer and that is we get to hear from these bank executives over a speakerphone onto day and Wednesday. Yes, with, with Morgan. But Caleb, what do you take away from that? I mean what are you listening for when you hear these executives talk? Do you appreciate kind of their, their vantage, their perspective on geopolitics broadly? Do you want to hear more granular information about the banks? What do you want to hear from these executives? On Tuesday.
- [39:14]
Caleb Silver
Yeah. Some CEOs are more candid than others, Jamie Dimon among them, notoriously candid. And he will tell you exactly what he thinks and exactly how the bank sees things. I heard him at the Reagan Economic Forum a few weeks ago. Super candid, but also saying America needs to be strong defensively. We also need to make sure we are taking care of our people. So he cares about both of those things. There's also rumblings about who the succession plan at JP Morgan. I don't think we're going to hear anything about that this week. He's still got some time in the seat, so he's a little bit more candid. But again, we want to know how strong are their customers, how robust is the lending going to be, as Herman mentioned, But also how strong is the US Economy, especially when it comes to consumers and their spending?
- [39:53]
Christina Raffini
Herman, how about you? What are you listening for?
- [39:54]
Herman Chan
Yes, that's right. Jamie Dimon's always been sort of the spokesperson for the industry. We'd love to hear more about the evolving backdrop, given the fact that we still have geopolitical tensions, where the economy is going forward and then the succession issue there. Marianne Lake recently stepped away from the bank and there's two new co presidents. So. And then really the eyes are on Troy Vorbaugh, who is going to lead the consumer operations going forward. Is he going, Is he viewed as the heir apparent in Jamie Diamond's minds? I'm sure a lot of analysts will probe that.
- [40:30]
Christina Raffini
Just to interject quickly here, I mean, this is like the longest running parlor game on Wall street right now. When is Jamie Dimon going to step down? And does this latest move give you any indication of how much closer we are to that point? I mean, he is often asked about this Jamie Dimon, and he is very quick to demure and say how much he loves his job.
- [40:44]
Herman Chan
Right. I would assume that we'll have more of that same refrain where he's going to say he's in that for the next foreseeable future. That being said, succession planning is something that the board and the bank takes very seriously. And I think the two co presidents really speaks to that.
- [41:01]
David Gura
All right, Caleb, I do want to get to Netflix.
- [41:02]
Christina Raffini
Yes.
- [41:03]
David Gura
It's usually the start of tech earnings seasons. How is Netflix doing? Because as a consumer, I feel like they're having a bit of an idea identity crisis. Right. When I think of like really prestige streaming, I don't think of them. When I think of like the CSI audience that my parents watch, I don't really think of them either. I don't really know what their brand is and I wonder if that's part of the problem is they're struggling to maintain consumers, to stop Churn and to come out where investors want them to be.
- [41:26]
Caleb Silver
Yeah, things have been anything but chill with Netflix and its investors.
- [41:30]
Erin Lyle
Well done.
- [41:30]
Caleb Silver
Stock is down 20% year to date, down 40% over the past year. Not magnificent, magnificent by any means anymore. But it is changing the way it runs its programming. It's got some challenges in that it's got competition. But it also is now has introduced that advertising platform. How much is that growing? They're expecting some $3 billion from that. That costs about, I think 8 or $9 if you want the ad tier program. They're able to raise prices. They have that pricing elasticity. They're able to raise prices pretty much a dollar every year and not much Churn, probably the lowest among the streamers. And now they're introducing a lot of short form programming. They're no longer really just a streamer. They are a global media platform and they're trying to compete with YouTube.
- [42:08]
David Gura
But do you feel like they have enough of a strategy or do you feel like they're just throwing things at the wall at this point?
- [42:13]
Caleb Silver
Well, over the last couple of weeks we've learned more about that strategy. They've, they've started short form programming. They started a bunch of deals with very popular podcasters. The Bill Simmons Ringer universe is in there as well. Hot ones is there as well. They signed some chefs to do some short form content. So they want to make sure they are not losing viewers who want that shorter form snackable content. And they're still building their library. They have a big slate coming out, including Narnia coming out later this year and a bunch of other big ticket movies. So they're trying to be everything, spending a lot of money doing it.
- [42:45]
Christina Raffini
What to ask you about their strategy toward acquisitions. So it wasn't long ago they were making a go for Warner Brothers discovery. Of course, that fell apart. We now see the spin up of NBC Universal and Comcast. I mean, they didn't make a play for Roku. I mean, how do you see their interest in expanding the business through mergers and acquisitions, if at all? I mean, once that deal fell through, I think there was some relief among shareholders, among many shareholders. What did it say to you about their kind of longer term trajectory?
- [43:10]
Caleb Silver
Well, the good news is that Netflix executives give long video interviews every earnings report. So I listened to it again last night from the last quarter. They said it didn't work out, but they learned a lot about M and A and how disciplined they want to be and what matters to them when it comes to making big investments. They have a lot of cash on hand right now and they need to do something beyond adding these creatives and adding the short form programming. I wouldn't be surprised to see an acquisition in the second half of this year or early next year because investors want to see really what's next beyond short YouTube clips and adding podcasting to
- [43:41]
David Gura
the platform Herman to bring it back where we started. And when we get these earnings reports, we usually get a macro look when you go through them. When we get Big Bank Day and none of us are working out, we're all on these calls. And by we, I definitely mean you guys. What are you going to be looking for? Anything specific that we should be watching for that I can steal later in the weekend to make it sound like I'm smart.
- [44:00]
Herman Chan
Right. So a lot of it's going to be what they say about the economy. Right. Heading into this quarter, there's a lot of enthusiasm into the earnings. But one of the pieces of that enthusiasm is that the credit quality performance of the banks will be very stable. How that really shapes up going forward. A lot of the analysts will probe about that given the fact that there is still a lot of risk. Energy prices are still high. You've had companies talk about consumers pulling back in certain areas of discretionary spending because of the high energy prices. How does that flow through into the banks in terms of customers and consumers paying back their credit cards and their mortgage? So we'll be looking forward to that.
- [44:40]
Christina Raffini
Last question to you, Herman. Picking up on what Caleb was saying a moment ago. We're talking about prospect for mergers and acquisitions. We've had the Space X ipo, SK Hynix had its listing on NASDAQ on Friday. Both of those are seen as kind of litmuses for how the market would be for, for offerings.
- [44:57]
Herman Chan
Right.
- [44:57]
Christina Raffini
What's your sense of the verdict on that? I mean there are, there are a lot of questions. Companies here waiting in the pipeline.
- [45:01]
Herman Chan
Yeah, I think that's one of the areas of enthusiasm for the banks in particular where banks are playing the AI and infrastructure side of things through their equity offerings, through their capital markets businesses and debt underwriting and bonds and securitizations, cmbs. So these data center financing that needs to happen and the capex that needs to be spent to build out the data centers, the banks are playing that by helping these companies with raising money. So so the theme is a big part of the capital markets story and we'd expect more commentary on that in the second quarter as well.
- [45:38]
Christina Raffini
Before we thank you, we need to get a shot of Caleb's I was going to do really for our radio listeners. Caleb wearing socks are with Bloomberg Terminal Terminal on them accompanying his Vans, which is a classy, very stylish combination.
- [45:53]
Public.com Advertiser
You can't get these?
- [45:54]
David Gura
No. Gura has great sneakers too. I'm always telling him wear sneakers.
- [45:57]
Christina Raffini
Well, I'm going to covet these socks from here on out and find find in which closet they're hidden here and pull them out.
- [46:02]
David Gura
We don't want you to feel left out. You guys are both great. Herman Chan, he's our senior analyst for US Banks and Caleb Silver from Investopedia.
- [46:08]
Christina Raffini
Great to see you here.
- [46:11]
David Gura
Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend right after this.
- [46:18]
Public.com Advertiser
Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, Putting on a hedge on Public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market market paid for by
- [47:14]
Kurt Volker
Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to
- [47:16]
Christina Raffini
the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
- [47:29]
Wise App Advertiser
if you sometimes turn down the podcast just to hear the hum of your engine, then Shell has the fuel for you. Shelby Power Nitrogen Nitro Plus Fuels every drive from the Pacific coast to the high desert with a fuel like no other. It contains active coating ingredients that clean and protect for longer lasting engines. Because your car's engine matters, that means more protection with active ingredients for longer lasting engines. Shell V Power Nitroplus Premium Gasoline Engine Performance that lasts Chances are you're not far from a Shell station. Find it using the Shell app formulation unique to Shell compared to minimum Detergent Gas Gasoline with continuous use of Shelby Power Nitro plus and gasoline direct injection engines. Actual effects and benefits may vary. See Shell Us More Protection for more information.
- [48:28]
Volvo Advertiser
The Volvo XC60 is designed to help keep you safe with an advanced system of features that feel like an extension of your own. Like another set of eyes when you're backing out of the driveway, an extra hand on the wheel helping you stay in your lane, or the sound alerting you about something ahead. Just in case you missed it, discover the Volvo XC60 safety. That's more than a feature. Visit volvocars.com US driver is responsible for safe operation at all times.
- [49:06]
David Gura
Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend. I'm Christina Raffini alongside David Gura. Around the world, numerous wars and conflicts are destroying the day to day lives of many civilians. And one blog has gone to try to unite what pulls us all together in these hard times. What is that force? Well, it's food.
- [49:23]
Christina Raffini
Food Under Fire is a blog dedicated to the proposition that amazing food can be found on the road even in the farthest flung, craziest corners of the world. We sat down with the creator of Food Under Fire, that's Erin Lyle, to ask her how she came up with this idea for a blog.
- [49:36]
Erin Lyle
Well, I've been long obsessed with food, obviously, and I moved to London 12 years ago for CBS and started covering conflicts once I moved here. And one of the first conflicts I went to was in Ukraine. It was 2014 and the revolution was happening in the Maidan. And what was amazing about it was it was, it was freezing outside. All these people were out there kitted out and colanders on their head and mattresses as sort of shields. And there were little old ladies wandering around the square, pushing around carts of hot soup, handing out hard boiled eggs, dishing out big bowls of grains. And I was going, oh my God, like this is how you feed a revolution. And it's as fascinating as the actual revolution that we're watching here. So I started this food blog because I just think, I think people generally find it fascinating how we feed ourselves, how we bring ourselves comfort, how we survive in areas that are under siege, that are difficult to live in. And so I started about 12 years ago and now every time I travel, I try to find a very specific moment to blog about that will sort of shed a bit of light on something we don't actually get to cover as we're telling news stories.
- [50:46]
Christina Raffini
So we've been talking about Ukraine. Give us a favorite moment or meal that you've had elsewhere in the world.
- [50:52]
Erin Lyle
Elsewhere in the world. I mean, I've had some amazing experiences in Gaza back in sort of 2014, 2019, before this current conflict where we got invited into people's homes and all the women cooked for days, you know, giant platters of meat and rice, and they took us to their watermelon farm and we cut open a fresh watermelon and we ate it with sort of those big tins of salty white cheese that you'll find in kind of Arabic markets, and some mint and some fresh bread. And, you know, you sit in these environments having this shared experience with people and just go, oh, wow. You know, like life is happening all around. It's not just war all the time. It's not just destruction. You know, people are sharing themselves, sharing their love. And I've been lucky enough to sort of stumble into those kinds of experiences. Experiences in most of the places we go.
- [51:41]
David Gura
Do you find that some of the poorest, most destitute places, they are the most generous with what they do have to offer. I'm always surprised by when you go to really wealthy countries, that's not the case. And when you go to places where you think people are just surviving day to day, they're almost always the first ones to invite you into their homes.
- [51:57]
Erin Lyle
Yeah, I mean, the Anglo Saxon world is probably the worst at this kind of hospitality. But the Middle East, Ukraine, will go to these places where people have lost so much and it doesn't even have to be war. It could be a natural disaster, it could be Haiti. And suddenly they're cooking everything they have, they're inviting you to sit at the table and they're giving everything they have, even if it's not a lot. And I mean, it's such a privilege to get to experience those kind of moments. And when I was in Ukraine, when the city of Kherson was liberated from Russian occupation, and we were trying to get into the city, we got as far as the city limits and then they wouldn't let us in. And it was too far to drive back. So I just stopped this old man in the street and said, you know, is there a guest house in this village that we can stay at? And he said, well, you're staying at my house. Obviously. We have food, we have blankets, and we have lady wine for you.
- [52:52]
Shannon Kingston
What is lady wine?
- [52:53]
Erin Lyle
I mean, I'm sold at wine, but what is lady wine? And he's like, well, it's slightly softer for the ladies, so it's not too hard for you. I said, great. So we went to their house and this little old couple cooked everything they had in their kitchen, like giant bowls of pasta, canned marinated tomatoes and peppers, big bowl of pickled cabbage, little toast with pork fat on them and sliced sausage and more pickles and then giant jugs of homemade lady wine and vodka and male wine, I guess. And it was just, it was such an experience because also for them to be able to host people after six months of occupation, to be able to unload the trauma that they had lived through and have this captive audience sharing the moment with them and sharing the joy and I mean, it was one of the highlights of my life, not to mention my work.
- [53:45]
Christina Raffini
You've been doing this for more than a decade and I'm curious what you've learned about your readers. Who's coming to you? What kind of interactions have you had with folks who are reading your updates and your dispatches on your blog?
- [53:56]
Erin Lyle
I get readers from all over the world, mostly America, UK because I write in English. But I think people really connect to these stories in a way that they don't connect to sort of a television package about what's going on in a war zone because they can put themselves in it. You know, there's a real empathy driver there. When you're reading about what it's like in some someone's home or even house, soldiers are living on the front line. You know, they're living in a trench, but in that trench they've got a makeshift kitchen, they've got soup on the stove, they're ladling out grains. And you can like really imagine what it's like to be in the situation. So I do get a lot of feedback where people just go, wow. And also in the same vein, as you just said, people are continually impressed with the generosity and hospitality that we stumble into around the world. It's beautiful.
- [54:46]
David Gura
Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg this Weekend podcast. Don't forget to tune in live for the show every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7am Eastern.
- [54:54]
Christina Raffini
We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle and culture.
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David Gura
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Erin Lyle
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