Bloomberg This Weekend – April 12, 2026

Episode: “Trump Says US to Blockade Strait of Hormuz”

Hosts: David Gura, Christina Raffini, Lisa Mateo
Key Guests: John Bolton (former National Security Advisor/US Ambassador), Axios’ Dave Lawler, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone, Jeff Mason (White House reporter), Alicia Diaz (Congressional reporter), Derek Wallbank (Bloomberg Editor)

Episode Overview

This episode is shaped by late-breaking news: President Trump’s announcement—via Truth Social—that the United States will imminently impose a blockade on shipping to and from the Strait of Hormuz, in response to Iran’s mine-laying and tolling of the strait. The show swiftly assembles political, military, and economic analysts to discuss the ramifications for US foreign policy, global oil markets, and domestic politics. The back half shifts to lifestyle topics, including a segment where Bloomberg’s Derek Wallbank experiments with using AI to train for a marathon.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Breaking News: US to Blockade Strait of Hormuz

[02:16–03:44]

• Christina Raffini relays President Trump’s post: The US will begin a blockade and destroy Iranian mines. “Any Iranian who fires, the US will be, quote, unquote, blown to hell.”
• David Gura underscores this is a unilateral announcement from Trump, not from the Pentagon or CENTCOM.
• The blockade intends to halt Iranian oil shipments and remove Iran’s leverage over global oil transit and prices.

Notable Quote

“Iran will not be allowed to profit from this illegal act of extortion. They want money and more importantly, they want nuclear.”
— David Gura quoting President Trump [02:50]

2. Interview: John Bolton on Iran, Regime Change, and Blockade

[03:44–14:49]

Bolton’s Perspective

• Believes true Middle East peace requires regime change in Iran.
• Blames Trump for lifting US sanctions on Iranian oil weeks prior, arguing it emboldened Iran.
• Supports the blockade: “No Gulf Arab oil gets out, no Iranian oil gets out. Let’s see how they feel about that in Tehran.” [04:40]

On Regime Change and Internal Opposition

• Dismisses claims that regime change has already occurred:

"That's ridiculous. We're dealing with religious fanatics… there are signs of fracture at the top, but the last thing you want is to let up before the regime collapses internally." [05:18]

• Bolton: No real moderates remain in Iranian leadership; opposition is broad but disorganized.

On US Endgame and Patience

• Advocates for patience:

“A little patience is required here... If we cannot show today that we can open the strait, what happens three years from now?” [07:52]

• On the political cost: “Consider the cost of not succeeding. I think the president could make a very effective case…” [13:02]

On Nuclear Program & Policy

• Insists dismantling Iran’s nuclear program is only possible with regime change:

“If you cannot change a regime’s behavior and you don’t want to live under an unacceptable threat... then the answer is change the regime.” [14:20]

Memorable Moment

• Bolton calls for possible US combat forces on Gulf islands claimed by UAE to secure maritime lanes, stressing the complexity and risk inherent in the operation. [10:07]

3. Reporter Analysis: US Allies, War Powers, and Execution Logistics

[17:24–29:17]

Military Coalition & Execution

• Dave Lawler (Axios): European allies reluctant due to risk of Iranian fire; Gulf states and Israel might play support roles but lack major naval assets. Trump’s approach has gone from dismissing the need for allies to embracing a US-led blockade. [18:01]
• Imposing a full blockade is “very, very difficult,” especially without firing on violators. US forces and equipment are already stretched due to multiple operations. [23:39]

Congressional Response

• Alicia Diaz:
  • Upcoming War Powers vote will be largely symbolic, as the President can veto.
  • Congress’ only real check is control of funding.
  • Political tightrope for lawmakers: support the President or align with anti-war constituents as midterms approach. [22:16]

Domestic Political Impact

• Both parties face internal pressures as the conflict and associated economic costs become potential election issues.

4. Market Impact: Oil, Inflation, and Energy Geopolitics

[31:49–41:00]

Oil Prices & Economic Consequences

• Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence): Expects oil and energy prices to spike, stock market to dip. “Just the fact that there’s aggression from Iran and we haven’t been able to secure the strait, maybe this will help make it happen—but the unknown rules markets.” [32:07]
• Notes risk of a US export ban to cap domestic fuel prices, which may not help global consumers but could temporarily shield American consumers. [33:12]
• Inflation concerns dominate; McGlone predicts demand destruction if fuel prices spike, with possible knock-on effects for recession:

“I do think by the end of the year crude oil… more likely to go to 50 than 100 right now. ...That’s part of the stock market dropping 10–20%.” [39:10]

Safe Havens & Asset Shifts

• Gold has shown surprised volatility and may not provide expected stability.
• “Overweight Treasuries, hide from the market. If you’re not long energy, it’s not the time because energy goes up and then it makes it go back down.” [40:28]

Broader Takeaway

• The US, as a net oil exporter, faces unique dilemmas in shaping global prices; unconventional US action in the Middle East equals further uncertainty for world markets.

5. Lifestyle Feature: Running a Marathon with AI Coaching

[43:36–49:53]

• Derek Wallbank shares his experiment using ChatGPT to train for the Paris marathon. San Francisco’s optimism around AI inspired the strategy.
• The AI-generated training plan was highly structured and more responsive than any human coach, quickly adapting to injury feedback, energy levels, and schedule changes.
  • AI’s shortcoming: “At some point my AI started hallucinating…[it] doesn’t really know what’s important and what’s not.” [47:16]
• Verdict: Use both human and AI guidance, not just AI.

“Technology alone is not going to get you there. ...It can help though, and this increase in AI technology is going to maybe make some of this a little bit more accessible.” [49:14]

Memorable Quotes (by Timestamp)

• Bolton: “You can negotiate all you want [with Iran], it’s not going to change anything.” [03:44]
• Bolton, on internal collapse: “There will be a lot of turmoil. That’s what happens after a 47-year long dictatorship begins to collapse.” [06:33]
• McGlone: “If we see some—we’re seeing demand destruction, it’s early days... To me, the key trigger is consumer sentiment.” [34:29]
• McGlone (on crude): “I do think by the end of the year crude oil… more likely to go to 50 than 100 right now. ...That’s part of the stock market dropping 10–20%.” [39:10]
• Lawler: “The person who called [Trump] was reality, as Jeff put it so eloquently.” [27:57]
• Wallbank: “There’s a little bit of optimism in San Francisco that all things are possible with AI... I was just curious what I could do with it.” [45:47]

Key Timestamps

• [02:16] Breaking news: US declares blockade of Strait of Hormuz
• [03:44–14:49] Interview: John Bolton on blockade, regime change, and nuclear issues
• [17:24–29:17] Analyst Panel: Military, Congress, and execution complexities
• [31:49–41:00] Mike McGlone: Oil prices, market reaction, and the macroeconomic impact
• [43:36–49:53] AI in lifestyle: Derek Wallbank’s AI marathon training experiment

Summary Takeaways

• The US, led by President Trump, is rapidly escalating its confrontation with Iran by announcing a naval blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz.
• John Bolton offers strong backing to both the blockade and the ultimate goal of Iranian regime change, expressing impatience with attempts at diplomacy and emphasizing military solutions.
• Military and Congressional experts highlight the formidable logistical and political challenges of executing a blockade, noting a stretched US military and a potentially risky stance should domestic and allied support wane.
• Oil markets and global economics are bracing for shocks—analysts caution on volatility, potential export bans, spikes in prices, and even prospects for a recession.
• In lighter fare, the show ends with a look at AI’s surprising (and at times frustrating) ability to personalize marathon training.

Episode in Three Sentences:
President Trump’s sudden announcement of a US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz triggers urgent analysis of military, political, and economic fallout around the world, with former advisor John Bolton advocating for regime change and rapid military action. Markets face renewed uncertainty as analysts warn of potentially dramatic oil price spikes and broader inflationary effects, while Congress and global allies maneuver to assert their influence. The episode ends on a human—and technological—note with an exploration of AI’s limits and power in everyday life.