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Congressman Michael McCaul
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Christina Raffini
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Christina Raffini
Right now, Iran's foreign minister is in Oman to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz as US Officials are demanding Iran guarantee the waterway open and that the attacks stop.
David Gura
Joining us now are Bloomberg Economics Defense lead Becca Wasser and Bloomberg Economics Middle East Geo Economics lead Denis Fandiari. She's the author of the book Triple Iran's Relations with Russia and China. So great to have both of you with us on this Saturday. I'm going to read here from the President of the United States one of his recent posts. The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue talks in quotation fingers. Quotation fingers. I'll do them there. We've agreed to do so, but the United States, I've stated to them in no uncertain terms that the ceasefire is over. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Both of you write in a recent note here that this is a familiar pattern, what we've seen play out over these last few days, strikes interspersed with talks, and this lower intensity conflict is going to be a feature, not a bug, as we move forward here. Dina, let me start with you, if I could. What do you make of the moment that we're in? We mentioned that there are technical talks supposedly underway. Where are we as the conclusion of this 60 day period isn't too far off?
Dina Esfandiary
Well, I think we are where we're going to be basically for the foreseeable future. I don't think these talks are going to make that much progress. Both sides, red lines are still too far apart and neither side has really shown any willingness to move towards the other. And in the meantime, what they're doing is they're really trying to shape the negotiations, shape the ceasefire. Iran, for example, with its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, is really trying to claim ownership over the Strait of Hormuz and demonstrate that ultimately, you know, it's king there and the rest of the world has to recognize it. And the US Is trying to get Iran to climb down from that position. So I don't think things are going to change. I think this is literally what it's going to look like for the foreseeable future.
Christina Raffini
So, Becca, what does that mean? Because you guys write in your latest piece is a ceasefire over what the strikes mean. Now, Iranian officials believe that pressure and especially bullying works with the Trump administration and they're doubling down on that tactic. You go on to talk about how nobody has claimed responsibility for the attacks in the Red Sea, but it could be an effort to show that Tehran still has other pressure options it hasn't yet pursued.
Becca Wasser
Yeah, and I think that's kind of where we find ourselves in a really tricky position because Iran has a great deal of levers that it hasn't yet pulled. The Red Sea being a great example of that. But we see that kind of bullying tactics also taking place from the Trump administration administration with the President routinely tweeting that, you know, American missiles are locked and loaded on Iranian targets. And so both sides are trying to retain the threat of force to achieve their more geopolitical and geo economic aims. And so I think, you know, to Dina's point, this is going to play out over the long term. We are looking at the potential for a protracted conflict, a long conflict where you do have these cycles of fighting and rest and reconstitution in order to build up, to get ready for the next round of potential attacks.
David Gura
Dina, on the plasticity of the policies surrounding these meetings. We had the White House putting this waiver in place that allowed Iran to sell oil on the open market on Tuesday of this week. They reversed course on that. And I'm just genuinely curious, sort of, were I in Tehran, how I, what signal that would send to me about the U.S. s openness to come to a deal here. So, you know, perhaps, perhaps the whole game here is just to attenuate this as much as possible, to push this to the midterms, etc. Etc. But, but if there is to be an effort here at some sort of negotiation, what would I make of the US Reversing course on that so quickly?
Dina Esfandiary
I mean, as you said, nothing good from Tehran's perspective. Keep in mind that they have been negotiating with the United States now for over a year. Every time they have found themselves in negotiations with the United States, they've either been bombed. So. So over the course of the last two wars that the US Started, or in this case, made promises that the US did not keep in the end. Now, to be fair, of course, it was the Iranians that shot at the ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which is why the US Reversed wars on sanctions. But at the end of the day, I think the problem that we're facing in the talks is that the two sides have signed this MoU, but are not interpreting it in the same manner. They don't see it unfolding in the same way, which is why we keep going back to these cycles of violence.
Christina Raffini
Yeah, a lot of that language was left, I think, specifically vague so that they could get both sides to sign onto it. But things like Iran agrees not to charge a toll for 60 days. Immediately to me said, well, then after 60 days they will. But of course, you heard from Washington, they were interpreting that a different way. And I think it's one of the reasons we got to where we are. Becca, I also want to ask you, I want to follow up on the oil question, because the other debate was whether or not that sanctions waiver really made a difference. Right. Whether it was more than symbolic and the symbolism, diplomacy does matter. But when you look at who is buying Iranian oil, who their big clients are, who is buying this, are they able to sell it, and is it when I think about Russia and their, their oil shortage at the moment due to that conflict, is that related here? Are they a better or worse client for Iranian oil at this time?
Becca Wasser
Well, I mean, I think Iran hasn't relied solely on Russia for a little bit. I think there's also been conversations that were taking place from India about buying Iranian crude. So there's a lot of options that Iran has had. But again, this has now been revoked. And for Iran, it was an incentive, a carrot to try and get them to the negotiating table and to shape that next round of talks for the MoU that now is no longer there. And so there's probably going to be another round of carrots and sticks. And where that ends up, you know, we'll see how it goes. But at the end of the day, it's not just about oil for now. It's about who controls the strait and is the strait open? And you see from the US Side, a continued push to make sure that it is open in their terms. But right now they're trying to rely on Iran to at least issue a statement. But talk is cheap and actions are the things that actually matter here.
David Gura
You know, you watched as we all did, the period of mourning that preceded the funeral for the late Supreme Leader in Iran. And obviously there were masses in the streets. And I'm wondering sort of what you took away from the way that that unfolded, the degree to which that conveyed unity or not among leadership in Iran. So what we can take away from that huge ceremonial event that just concluded.
Dina Esfandiary
Well, I think what the leadership tried to do with this week long funeral procession was to demonstrate unity, was to demonstrate that it still had support inside the country. Despite everything that we've seen. The, the protests in January, this was their moment really, to show that the Islamic Republic still has support inside Iran. And to a certain extent, they were able to show that. There were a lot of people that showed up. The funeral procession even went all the way to Iraq. There were many foreign dignitaries that showed up last weekend at the beginning of the procession. So in some ways they were successful. But the issue for the Iranian leadership right now is that this war is buying them a little bit of time. People's attentions are distracted. They're focused on the war, they're focused on that ending. Once it's over, the Islamic Republic is really going to have to take whatever gain it manages to make as a result of these negotiations and start to use them to rebuild domestically to sort out its economic issues. And there are many to sort out and really try to overcome some of the crises that it's been facing over the course of the last few months.
Christina Raffini
And, Becca, President Trump has had to deal with a little bit of Pottery Barn rules here, which is if you break it, you bought it, especially when it comes to the strait. He's been very frustrated that American allies, especially NATO allies, have not been willing to come in and help secure passage and solve some of these issues. And we expected those frustrations to play out at this recent NATO summit in Ankara. And I know you've written about kind of the dynamics there. NATO leaders trying to prove to the president, show the president they are increasing defense spending, they are good allies. It's worth it for America to stay in that alliance. And one of the prominent kind of leaders trying to sell himself there was the host, Erdogan, Turkey's president, who's trying to put Turkey in a position to be a really strong defense partner for the US And I think of Turkey, I immediately think of that spat a little while ago with the Russian S400 missiles they wanted to buy. Patriots wouldn't let them, that they ended up reversing course the F35 program. Where does Turkey stand as far as defense manufacturing for the US and where does Europe stand as far as defense contributions coming out of that NATO meeting?
Becca Wasser
Well, Turkey emerged as a big winner. Erdogan had a huge win, which is, you know, Trump saying that he would reverse capsa sanctions on Turkey and allow Turkey to purchase the F35. We'll see how that actually plays out, because it all comes down to implementation. But right now, Turkey is very much positioning as though it's going to happen. And so Erdogan came out a big winner, even if it meant that some of the guns that he gifted to NATO leaders as a thank you actually remained in Turkey for a variety of different reasons. But for Europe, I think also the NATO summit was pretty much a net win for them. They heard a lot of the similar upset from President Trump, not helping enough when it came down to the Iran war, not increasing defense spending fast enough, not buying enough American equipment, and Trump doubling down on his desire signs on Greenland. But overall, it seemed as though it was fairly steady with a reinforcing of the US European relationship, as well as America's commitment to continue to sell very critical arms to Europe, including potentially moving into having Patriot production in Ukraine and also selling Germany Tomahawk missiles. That was previously going to be reversed. So the NATO summit, I would put in the relative positive column that said, you know, I do think that, that doesn't mean that tensions don't remain and they won't boil to the surface yet.
Christina Raffini
David Gura, when we go to summits together, you never give me handguns like the Turkish president did.
David Gura
Tell the natives President Trump kept the
Christina Raffini
gold revolver you've never handed me. I'm very upset by the lack of revolvers in our, in our summit relationship.
David Gura
I should know. We're going to talk to Congressman Michael McCaul here in a bit about his recent trip, trip to Ukraine. And he's somebody who's been really pushing for them to have more missiles, more access to missiles on air defense, especially on the battlefield. Dina, let me just end with you. We mentioned these technical talks and I'm curious what we know of what at a granular level is being discussed at this point in time. And I wonder what you make of just the focus there on the technical side of things, given what we know of how much effort and time went into securing the JCPOA the first time around. When you hear that the talks are technically focused, is that a positive sign that they're getting down to brass tacks here or is it perhaps alternatively a sign that because they can't agree on broader issues, there's, there's ample room here to haggle over over smaller things? How do you read just sort of where we are in terms of the
Christina Raffini
talks right now and who is there?
David Gura
Yes. Who's participating?
Dina Esfandiary
So, no, I do think it's a positive that there are technical talks going on and that there are kind of lower level talks. They're really focusing on the details. I think that's what was lacking in the mou. The MOU was like a one page broad strokes document where even the language was very vague and look where we are now as a result of it. So the fact that they're having technical talks, detailed talks on very specific issues, that's a good thing. I suspect the bulk of that will be focused on obviously Iran's nuclear program, the status of Iran's enrichment. Once the final deal is agreed to, will there be enrichment on Iranian soil? Won't there, will there be a moratorium? How long will that last? What will happen to Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium which disappeared after the last war. All of these things are things that they're going to be focusing on. They're also the issues on which neither side can really agree on. They were some of the sticking points that were there in the last few rounds of negotiations. So I think there is a little bit more willingness to compromise on these issues right now. The sticking point today, though, remains the strait, the sanctions and also the sequencing of the implementation of the MOU and also the final deal. So there's a lot of material to cover. There's a lot of sticking points to unstick, basically. And I think that my fear is that neither side really right now has the patience to do it. The critical issue is neither side wants to return to war. They're prepared to, but they don't want to. And that in itself is also good news.
Christina Raffini
All right, Dina and Becca, it's so nice to have you both. Lots of great bylines from the two of you in the terminal, and let's do it again soon. Thank you very much.
David Gura
Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
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Christina Raffini
All right. Right now, President Vladimir Zelinsky's top priority in the war with Russia is obtaining those Patriot missiles. Writing on social media in part, Patriots are number one. We are grateful to the United States and to the Europeans who have helped us with these systems. But with Patriots, it's a matter of time. Production is very limited and the waiting lists are very long.
David Gura
This week, the Ukrainian president went from the NATO summit in Turkey to meeting with several US lawmakers, including Republican Michael McCaul of Texas, who joins us now live from Ukraine. He serves on the Foreign affairs and Homeland Security committees. I should say he was just recognized by the president of Ukraine with the Order of Merit, 2nd Class. Congratulations on that. Great to speak with you from Ukraine.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Medal Freedom, Medal of Freedom.
David Gura
Thank you very much.
Congressman Michael McCaul
No big deal.
David Gura
No big deal. An accolade. Nonetheless, pick up from what we were just talking about with Colin. There's this promise from the president that they're going to be able to build Patriot missiles. What did you hear from the press and what does that look like in real terms if Ukraine's able to do that?
Congressman Michael McCaul
Well, if I could put the threat landscape in picture for your audience. There are a lot of shellings where I'm sitting right now in Kiev of ballistic missiles. I just came back from the front lines. It's heavy drone warfare on the front lines. They're actually winning on the front lines right now. They're actually capturing Russian territory, which is hugely significant. I think in President Trump's eyes. Seeing them as a winner has been helpful in his discussions with Zelensky. But where they're vulnerable right now is they have no way to defend themselves. There's no air defenses with respect to ballistic missiles. I've been in some very intense briefings here. Russia is able to build well over 60 ballistic missiles a month. The ones that we were hit with last night were not intercepted. So they do not have interceptors. That's a Patriot battery. Patriot interceptor that they need to arrange for the licensing agreements to be either sold or given to Ukraine is a major step forward, both politically as a showing of support, but also allowing Ukraine to use its amazing innovation. I've seen over here with drone manufacturing to now manufacturing this Patriot interceptor. They have a very short window of time. In fact, I would say because the missiles are hitting now, normally it would be the wintertime, but it's hitting now. They can move this a lot faster than, say, Lockheed can in the United States. I hope this can be done in short order.
Christina Raffini
Chairman, do you think Lockheed is going to play ball? I mean, they do have to agree to give Ukraine the license. And so far our reporters and other reporters have not gotten an official comment from Lockheed as to whether or not they're going to be willing to do that.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Right? It's a good question. I think it's in their best interest to do so for many factors. Their whole business model relies on defense contracts with the United States government, our military. If the President wants this done, it's in their best interest to comply with that. But in addition, Christina, I think we have a lot to learn from the Ukrainians. I've learned a lot on this trip in terms of the innovation and the drone technology. I think Ukrainians can build this thing faster and maybe even better. So Lockheed could learn something from the Ukrainians about their own interceptors, how to improve them, how to manufacture them more quickly. One of the biggest problems you heard from your previous guest is our defense industrial base and our inability to manufacture these faster in the current threat environment, not only here on the eastern flank of NATO, but also in the Indo Pacific and as we're seeing playing out in the Middle East.
David Gura
Talk a bit, if you would, about kind of formalizing what you're mentioning here, which is kind of learning from what's happening in Ukraine. You've introduced this legislation, the Strategic Unmanned Systems Partnership act, with the gentleman from Ohio, Marcy Kaptur, and I'm curious, do you see a lot of support within Congress to establish a more formal tie between these two countries when it comes to unmanned weapons in particular?
Congressman Michael McCaul
I do, because it's in our best interest. This is a laboratory that I'm in right now, and I've visited all the drone manufacturers here. There are some American companies here, a lot of Ukrainian, you know, companies that are manufacturing this new, the new Innovation of technology, of modern advanced warfare systems. We'd be really. It'd be foolish not to be a full participant in the experiments going on in this laboratory where I'm sitting today. There are some European NATO countries here. I think we would be a loser to not be a participant. So what the bill essentially does within the National Defense Authorization bill is to say, you know, we need to cooperate with Ukraine and and co produce. Co production of these advanced weapons systems in Ukraine and and near the eastern flake of NATO. I did the same thing with Aukus in Australia to call where there were five eye nation to defend against China and Indo Pacific. It's an exemption, what's called itar, the international regulations on weapons and weapons systems using AI and quantum to to build out advanced weapons systems. We have an amazing opportunity to work with the Ukrainians to advance our weapons systems in a faster, more innovative way, I think. And it's a wonderful idea that I think has broad based bipartisan support.
Christina Raffini
Chairman, you mentioned that you have been traveling around and you've been on the front lines. We actually have a pretty amazing photo that I think your colleagues sent over for us. It's very top gun. You've got the aviators and the flak jacket on. But this is, I mean this is serious stuff. And since you are there, how is morale? How are those Ukrainian soldiers feeling? Because they do have momentum. It does seem like these strikes in the interior of Russia are making a difference. We are seeing these lines at petrol stations. But Putin is an entrenched individual. I don't know if anything even, you know, popular sentiment is going to move him. Do they feel like they have traction? Do they feel like there's a sea change in this conflict and where do we think this goes?
Congressman Michael McCaul
Those are all great questions, Christina. Let me say, number one, morale is high on the Ukraine side of this war. I was on the front line and one of the most fiercest fighting areas, you know, in the Donbas region. Morale is high because they're winning. And they were showing me the square miles that they've taken back from the Russian occupations because of their innovation, you know, with the drones. I think that that coupled with the news coming from the NATO summit, I was literally with the Ukraine frontline soldiers when that news broke. That was a major morale boost for not only the fighting forces on the ground, but President Zelensky himself when I met with him, because it's showing a sign of support from the United States from the President and also showing a support on these Patriot interceptors that they so desperately need. And so, you know, I. Morales, I forgot the second part of your question, if you wouldn't mind repeating.
Christina Raffini
I did, too. That's okay. Oh, no, I was wondering. We were thinking through this.
Becca Wasser
Sorry.
Congressman Michael McCaul
I've been going kind of. I've been in these underground bunkers. Just to give you a little taste of where I've been in these underground bunkers that are camouflaged where I'm watching this drone activity on these video screens as we're seeing drones being hit out of the sky. You know, these gas stations that we drove past within the last week have been blown up by shahed drones. Just, you know, really amazing. Last night I was at their central Special Forces command, if you will, where their major drone operations are outside of Kiev. And fascinating. This is the bottom line, the cost benefit ratio to take a drone that's worth about $25,000 and take out $100 million infrastructure facility in Russia. This is how they win, because Russia can't afford it. And now I do remember your question. It has to do with Putin.
Christina Raffini
Yeah, it did come back to me as you were talking about the trenches, but go ahead, sir.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Putin is feeling the pain. He's getting more desperate, and that's why the ballistic missiles are coming in. He does see a vulnerability he's taking advantage of, but he's also feeling the pain. The average lifespan of a Russian soldier in the front line is a matter of hours to days. They don't last very long. And that's how effective the Ukrainians are right now. The morale of the Russian Federation soldier is way down. The population is feeling the pain now not only with. With gasoline prices, but of the. The carnage taking place on their side of the front line. So I think Putin, Putin's, I know for a fact is very angry at the outcome of the NATO summit meeting with the showing of support by the president, President Trump to President Zelensky and reinforcing that with, we understand you need better air defenses. We're going to help you with the Patriot interceptor. That was a. A very strong message to Moscow and to Putin, and I believe he's losing a lot allies as well. Remember, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran are all under threat. And I think Putin is feeling backed against a wall. We don't want him to get too desperate and use tactics that would be unconventional. But I do think, who thought, well, I was told four days this conflict would be over. And here we are four years later. And I'm proud to say after the investment I was able to get with the emergency wartime Supplemental bill, they are now winning.
David Gura
I want to get a read from you of the President's engagement with this conflict. So you talked about him making that commitment of patriots and what he said at the NATO summit. Of course, that was Preceded by this 85 minute long phone call that he had with President Putin. And I'm curious what you observed of him at the NATO summit in terms of engagement with the conflict in Ukraine and indeed what the President of Ukraine said to you about the status of their relationship and his confidence in the support that he has from the U.S.
Congressman Michael McCaul
well, remember, morale is already high because they're winning. But the message at the NATO summit is I'm a winner. And President Trump likes winners. And President Trump now has decided to. To go. We'll see if it's all in. But he certainly was a strong showing of support for the President of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. I think that was the right decision. I think the moral clarity is there. I think being on the right side of history is there. And the more pressure we can put on Putin, the closer we are to a peaceful negotiation. Remember, Zelensky is the one who has said, yes, I will agree to a ceasefire. The one who has not agreed to that is Putin. So you don't get them to the table by being nice to him. You get them to the table by putting leverage on them. Peace through strength works. And so the more strength we can show on the Ukraine side and the more pain we can put on Russia and Putin, then the closer we are to negotiated, peaceful resolution of this conflict.
Christina Raffini
I do worry about a hubrisic factor here. And to quote Mark Twain, you know, the reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. There, there is, there are some warning signs that, yes, Ukraine has momentum, but this isn't over. And Russia can come back very strongly. Are you worried that people are giving the win too early and that it will lose momentum or even lose interest with some of the allies? Or do you think that this really is a turning point in the conflict?
Congressman Michael McCaul
Yeah, I think the turning point started a year ago. They are winning on the drone warfront. Where they're vulnerable are the air defenses for the ballistic missiles. And Putin knows that. That's why you're seeing the shelling taking place where I'm sitting today in Kiev. Every night they're getting pounded here with ballistic missile attacks. They're trying to hit their energy infrastructure here. They have fired over a dozen hypersonic weapons into, into Ukraine. Those are the fastest velocity, most difficult missiles to stop. And, and the last piece that I worry the most about is, would be the tactical nukes. That would be a real act of desperation by Mr. Putin. I think his calculation, however, has guided him against launching those because he knows that that would galvanize the Western world against him. And he would also has been warned by President Xi in China that that his support from China could wane if he goes down that road.
David Gura
Let me ask you lastly about the other big conflict that of course, what's unfolding in the Middle East. And the President in recent hours has said the ceasefire is over. He's willing to let talks continue, but it doesn't seem like he's fully engaged with them. Steve Witkoff can go do them, Jared Kushner can do them, but he's not evincing a kind of rigorous engagement at those talks as they're taking place. What's your sense of the White House strategy going forward? Here again, the clock is now ticking. Once again, the future funeral for the late Supreme Leader has ended. How much optimism do you have that there'll be some resolution or progress toward a more permanent deal at the end of that 60 day period?
Congressman Michael McCaul
Well, I hope there is. I hope we can get the Straits of Hormuz open. Iran is. They're not stupid. I don't trust them. I don't think they negotiate in good faith. They know the midterm elections are coming up. They know that if energy prices escalate, that's going to hurt my party at the election ballot. I think, you know, when you make a decision to go in like this, you got to go all in. And we had a historic opportunity to go in, including regime change. You know, when you do something like this, our military is the greatest and they've achieved a lot of their objectives. The thing we weren't able to achieve was regime change. And we're still stuck with the same regime, essentially without the Ayatollah, we're stuck with the irgc. And they have also found a new found power or weapon that's they can close the streets of Hormuz. Going in, you needed leadership, weapons and you needed communication, open communications. I am concerned about this. And the worst thing that could happen is we negotiate a really bad deal for political reasons. Before the midterm elections, now that we're in and we seem to be all in, we need to do this correctly. But, you know, I don't think the American people have a lot of patience, to be honest with you. And when they fill up their gas tanks, I mean, I filled mine up when I was home in Austin. And you know, it was a hundred dollars and and so the American people are fatigued with wars in the Middle east as well. But it is very important that we succeed in this. I just don't have a lot of confidence in the negotiations really. You have to have a real big stick to get a good negotiation.
Christina Raffini
Congress, we're gonna have to leave it there. Congressman Michael McCall, great state of Texas. Please thank your team. We know Leslie Shedd, friend of the show, is with you as well. Thank you guys for figuring out the legitimate logistics and stay safe and we'll see you back here soon. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
Show Producer/Announcer
Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English, like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public
Congressman Michael McCaul
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
Optum Representative
let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling the system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system. So care is connected, not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person. From primary care doctors to mental health support and even in home care. And then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients and those prescriptions. Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how.
IBM Representative
So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.
David Gura
We live in a world where loud is equated with fun. But for hundreds of millions of people, they're paying a high price for that. They have tinnitus. Bloomberg Pursuit staff writer Hannah Elliott warns that someone you know has it and that it's a ticking time bomb.
Christina Raffini
The American Tinnitus foundation says over 50 million people are suffering. That's 15% of the population. And it's so bad for about 2 million Americans, they're actually debilitated by it. Veterans, musicians, people who love concerts and motor sports are all at an increased risk. And for Hannah, writing the story was deeply personal.
Hannah Elliott
My husband has it, and the funny thing is, my husband's a car guy, and as you know, job is mostly writing about cars in the car world. And I started to realize that when you're in a group of car people, the minute you mention tinnitus, everyone starts to come out of the woodwork and says, I have it, or my buddy has it or my brother has it or my dad has it. And I just started to realize, oh, in this tiny segment of car people, it's very prevalent to. And then it started to spill out into, oh, my motorcycle friends talk about it. Oh, my musician friends talk about it. And it became this thing where it's like, wow, this seems to be very common, but no one's really talking about it because some people can kind of live with it and others don't want to talk about it because it's so frustrating that there's no cure. So they don't talk about it at all. And it just got me very, very curious about what's really going on, who's affected, and why. That's kind of how I came into it.
David Gura
So you talked to folks who are suffering from this. You talked to doctors, other experts. You had a suspicion that it was widespread. Just how widespread Is it? How big a problem is this when you look at the world?
Hannah Elliott
Yeah. So tinnitus, and I think we should say it's correct to say tinnitus or tinnitus, both are correct, is basically the perception of a sound in your head or your ears that is not coming from an external source. So that could mean ringing, buzzing, whooshing, a scratching or static sound. It can be very isolating because it's difficult to be in environments that you can't control sound wise. If your ears are really sensitive to sound triggers and also just having this noise in your head that no one else is can hear, it's really, really. It can be really debilitating.
Christina Raffini
I remember when I was a kid, my dad asked me, we were out camping and it was really quiet and I remember him asking me if I could hear silence. And I said, yeah, can't we all? And he said no because he'd been a tank commander in the military and he always had a constant ringing in his ears. He never hears silence anymore because there's always something there, but it's not. I always thought it was hearing loss. You said it's not a disease and it's not hearing loss. Do they know what causes it?
Hannah Elliott
That's exactly right. And that has been a really big sort of misconception about tinnitus. It can be related to hearing loss because noise exposure is the biggest known cause of tinnitus, which is just being exposed to loud, too loud noises. But tinnitus and hearing loss are two separate things. And a lot of the people that I spoke with, including my husband, who is how I first became aware of it, have excellent hearing. Tinnitus is a separate thing. And that has really gotten in the way of some of the research. Every audiologist and clinical technician and medical professional who I spoke with said tinnitus is so under researched and underfunded. Exactly. Because of what you're describing, which is that it's usually lumped in with hearing loss and hearing damage.
David Gura
Somebody you spoke with was John Ginty, Grammy nominated organist, drag racer in Sarasota. He compared it to phantom limb syndrome. I'll just quote a bit from your piece. You take somebody whose arm has been amputated and they wake up with pain in their hand. Well, the hand's not there, but the pain is real. That's how it is with tinnitus. It's something that your brain is making up. But it was almost giving me panic attacks.
Christina Raffini
Crazy.
David Gura
Talk a bit about the effects this has. You alluded to this just a moment ago with the difficulty of suffering with this. What does that mean in terms of mental health? Again, not acknowledging the fact not everybody would have the same kind of effects broadly. But what's it mean for folks who do have this?
Hannah Elliott
Of course, there is a really big connection between poor mental health and tinnitus. And there are a lot of. There's a lot of research and there are a lot of studies that link anxiety with tinnitus, both as a trigger and as a result. It's sort of this very sad cycle of tinnitus can cause depression, anxiety, isolation, but also those things can lead to increased tinnitus triggers. So it is all linked. Just the fact that when people are told by their medical providers that there's no cure and there's really nothing we can do about tinnitus, about this thing that is really affecting your daily life, that would be depressing for anybody. So there tends to be a sense almost of despair for a lot of people, that there's no cure, there's nothing we can do. You have to live with this. You know, some people describe it to me as a jet engine roaring in their head. Of course, that causes. Causes extreme mental anguish, and that, in turn, can just lead to really a poor quality of life. And even worse, of course, there have been even cases of suicide related to tinnitus. Multiple people I spoke with for this piece told me that they had felt, I can't live like this anymore. They really got to a very dark place about their tinnitus.
Christina Raffini
So now that people are becoming more aware, I mean, I just keep going back to 50 million people, 15% of the population. That's a lot of people. I'm wondering if doctors and audiologists are starting to take it more seriously. And if you think in the next couple years they're making any progress or they're working towards possible solutions.
Hannah Elliott
Yeah, that's a great question. And I really think the time is right to be talking about tinnitus, because as we all know, everybody is obsessed with youth and longevity and trying to. To basically health max ourselves into somehow living forever as very hot, sexy people. The thing is, tinnitus is connected to brain health, which is connected to even cognitive decline and even dementia. So there are strong links that indicate we need to be paying attention to this. And I think as a broader culture, as millennials, I'm an older millennial, as boomers sort of realize we need to be taking care of our bodies and our minds so we can have the best life as we get older. This. This issue of protecting your hearing, taking care of your hearing, which is linked to your brain health, which is linked to your cognitive health. That is only going to increase. The other great thing to know is that in 2023 the FDA did finally approve one treatment for tinnitus called Lenire, which is a device that combines sounds and tiny electrical pulses that you put on your tongue as a way to sort of retrain your brain. That was approved in 2023 and I spoke with many people who have used the device and say that it helps. And I've talked with technicians who think that it's very promising and hopefully will help lead this surge into more research, more funding, more treatment.
David Gura
Hannah Elliott, our colleague and fellow Elder Millennial Hannah, thank you very much. Appreciate it.
Lisa Mateo
Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
Show Producer/Announcer
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Congressman Michael McCaul
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
Optum Representative
let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling the system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in home care. And then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients and those prescriptions. Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how the
IBM Representative
thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.
David Gura
It's time for my favorite part of the show. That, of course, is this weekend's pointed news quiz.
Christina Raffini
What's your favorite part when you win?
David Gura
I feel good about it today.
Christina Raffini
Yeah, I'm feeling good about your championship.
David Gura
Odds are good. Lisa Mateo tied again last week, right, Quizmaster? We did tie last week.
Lisa Mateo
Okay, first of all, for those of
David Gura
you playing, for those who are new
Lisa Mateo
to the show, what is pointed? What are they talking about? This is a show. Okay, so it's a game. You can play it, of course, online, you can play it on the business app as well. So they each have 30 chips. Online, you don't have chips. You have multiple choice questions, but they have chips in front of them. So they're gonna place their 30 chips and figure out how confident they are on these three categories that I'm gonna tell you about. Okay, so think about it. Our first category is Italy.
David Gura
Italy.
Lisa Mateo
Second category is reptiles. And third category is Beauty.
David Gura
Beauty.
Lisa Mateo
So how do you wager? How would you like to wager your bets?
Christina Raffini
I'm split. But if you embarrass me on a question about Italy, we're gonna have words in the background after this.
David Gura
So I'm gonna put.
Christina Raffini
I know which parking garage you use. I will follow you.
David Gura
All right, I'm gonna put.
Lisa Mateo
Wait, where are you doubling down?
David Gura
10 on Italy. Okay, 20 on reptiles. Nothing on beauty.
Lisa Mateo
You're going all in on reptiles?
David Gura
Why not?
Hannah Elliott
What is going on?
Christina Raffini
Do you remember reading a single story about reptiles?
David Gura
Absolutely not. Okay, but I do know a few.
Christina Raffini
Oh, I did remember one.
Lisa Mateo
Okay.
Christina Raffini
I've met a few snakes in my life, too. All right, Lisa, let's see how we are in Italy.
Lisa Mateo
Okay. Italy. Italy's.
David Gura
Italy.
Lisa Mateo
Brasale. I hope I said that right.
David Gura
I hope so the spelling. It's like the spelling bee.
Lisa Mateo
It was founded in the Asiago plateau. Okay. They recently secured a loan of $11.4 million using what product as collateral? Okay, so it's founded in the Asiago.
Christina Raffini
Yeah, yeah, yeah, we got it.
David Gura
It was a very heavy handed vehicle.
Christina Raffini
As collateral. Yeah, except my dyslexia. I'm flipping the letters. Okay, here we go.
Lisa Mateo
We got this. Okay. That was very quick. Okay.
David Gura
I like cheese.
Hannah Elliott
Cheese.
Lisa Mateo
Cheese.
Christina Raffini
Asiago cheese.
Hannah Elliott
Very good.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Very good.
Lisa Mateo
Yeah. They borrowed money against cheese still maturing in its warehouse.
David Gura
I love an Asiago.
Christina Raffini
These like big wheels of Parmesan, they're like a commodity. You can do futures on them, you can trade on them. It's very interesting.
Hannah Elliott
I digress. Yes.
Lisa Mateo
Yes.
Christina Raffini
All right. I'm gonna keep my chips.
Lisa Mateo
You guys are doing well.
David Gura
10 to 10.
Lisa Mateo
We're off to a good start.
Christina Raffini
From David Gura.
Lisa Mateo
Okay.
Show Producer/Announcer
All right.
Lisa Mateo
Shall we go to reptiles?
Christina Raffini
I'm concerned about this.
Lisa Mateo
Reptiles. I remember this story too. Okay. Clinics were set up for bite victims after flooding in China caused a mass escape of which kind of reptile this was in China.
Christina Raffini
How specific do we have to be?
Lisa Mateo
What's the name of the rep. What type of reptile? Name a reptile, Any reptile. If you can't think of it.
David Gura
Okay, okay, I'm gonna.
Lisa Mateo
And flooding causes. So we mass escape.
David Gura
I wrote snakes, but then cobras in parentheses. But I actually didn't write that. I just wrote snakes. I just wrote snakes. I knew we could go broad. I was giving you more than I needed to.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Lizard it.
David Gura
Snakes.
Congressman Michael McCaul
David.
David Gura
So glad Lisa had the foresight to clarify my answer.
Lisa Mateo
And the nose.
Christina Raffini
That seemed unfair.
David Gura
There we go.
Lisa Mateo
But hundreds of snakes actually escape from pictures.
David Gura
Do we have pictures?
Lisa Mateo
No, we don't. But unfortunately.
Christina Raffini
Sorry, David put me on the spot there.
David Gura
Should I draw it? There's water. They're like, we're poking up out of the water like that.
Christina Raffini
Welcome to insanity.
David Gura
Yeah, that was very crazy.
Christina Raffini
They were captive and then they flooded.
Lisa Mateo
They were in breeding farms. And because the flooding happened, they all escaped. And that was the craziness of it. So hundreds of them. People started getting bitten. It was.
Christina Raffini
It was quite a Covered floods. The worst thing about covering floods is that water is so dark and you can't see it and you just. You can't think about what is in that water.
David Gura
I'm stuck on breeding floor.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Farms.
David Gura
There's an old country song called Snake farms. Is there snake farm? It's a reptile house.
Christina Raffini
I think you should come and play that. For us.
David Gura
I've been asking the rights. Great song. Who sang that? Robert Earl Keane, maybe?
Christina Raffini
Do you want to sing along for us?
David Gura
No, he's good. I'm good. I'm just so good because I'm winning with 30 Lisa, chips on the table.
Lisa Mateo
But don't worry, don't worry, don't worry. We still have a bonus, but we got to get through the third category. Okay. Beauty. This is where Christina's making up for it. CoverGirl is pivoting its marketing towards which generation that's expected to be the highest spending for years to come. So what generation are they now targeting after all this time? CoverGirl we're talking about. Okay. David thinks. Yes, Alpha. Alpha. Gen. Alpha. No. Gen X. Hello, It's Gen X. Yes.
David Gura
No sweat off my back.
Lisa Mateo
Women in their 40s, 50s, early 60s, 60s, they think they're going to be spending a lot.
Christina Raffini
They're saying they're going to continue to market to us, that we need to not age, and we will therefore be spending more and more on beauty products.
Lisa Mateo
If you want to take it that way.
David Gura
Things are getting heavy. This is a weekend show. Let's keep it light, please.
Show Producer/Announcer
How many do you have over there?
Christina Raffini
Oh, Christina, I feel very betrayed. You've let the sister have a chance. It's okay.
Lisa Mateo
It's okay. I have your chips. Okay, let's go to the bonus, because if you. If you get the bonus, I'll give you the 20 back.
David Gura
I don't think so.
Lisa Mateo
Okay, Here's a bonus.
Hannah Elliott
Oh, you're gonna love this.
Lisa Mateo
Sports.
IBM Representative
Sports.
Christina Raffini
All right. A hive excuse.
David Gura
We love it.
Lisa Mateo
Australia is financing a sports team in Papua New guinea to combat Chinese influence. What sport will they play? So what sport are they gonna play?
Optum Representative
Australia.
Lisa Mateo
New Guinea. To combat combat Chinese importance wrote rugby. We wrote rugby.
Christina Raffini
I wrote handball.
Hannah Elliott
You.
Lisa Mateo
Rugby is correct.
David Gura
This is the best day.
Optum Representative
This is the best game.
David Gura
I'm so excited. Can I just have her 20 chips Add to it?
Lisa Mateo
This is my first.
David Gura
Cash them in. Dealer's choice. What a day.
Lisa Mateo
She has never ended with zero chips.
Show Producer/Announcer
No.
Christina Raffini
This is the worst performance I have
David Gura
ever, ever done to zoom in on that stack of 30 before me. Lisa, thank you very much. Pointed. Always the highlight for me of our show. Oh, my God. You'll have to clean this up all over.
Christina Raffini
Test your knowledge and see if you could do better than me, which is not a high bar. This week, all 10 questions are on the Pointed News Quiz@Bloomberg.com pointed and the Bloomberg. Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg this weekend podcast. Don't forget to tune in live for the show every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7.
David Gura
We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business app, bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle and culture.
Optum Representative
Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more@business.optum.com this episode is brought to you by Bobcat.
Congressman Michael McCaul
They started the compact equipment industry through grit, determination and a whole lot of think we can't do that?
David Gura
Watch us.
Congressman Michael McCaul
They set standards, broke records, empowered people to build bigger and higher, to dig deeper, to make the impossible possible. We've all been there with doubters telling us what we can't do. Who cares what they think? We don't need their permission or forgiveness. We just get things done. So go ahead and doubt me. Judge me. Challenge me. But when the time comes, watch me. Bobcat
David Gura
it's called soccer.
Congressman Michael McCaul
It's called football.
David Gura
Soccer. Foot ball. Domino's Best deal ever. Lets you get any pizza, including stuffed
IBM Representative
crust with any toppings for 9.99.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Okay, we can agree on that. Yeah, fully.
Show Producer/Announcer
So pineapple.
Congressman Michael McCaul
Don't ruin it.
David Gura
Get any pizza, including stuffed crust with any toppings for $9.99. Finally, something everyone can get behind. And if the rest disagree, that's between them and Domino's. Which means the only thing left to
Congressman Michael McCaul
fight over is who's ordering. Dom on Mino.
David Gura
Price is higher for some locations. Excludes XL and specialty pizzas. Select this offer from 6:15 to 7:26 online only. Size availability varies by crust. Tank max 7 toppings 6 for pan and New York style crust. Minimum purchase required for delivery. Prices, participation, delivery area and charges may vary.
Episode: US Demands an Open Strait; Russian Forces Strike Kyiv
Hosts: David Gura, Christina Raffini, Lisa Mateo
Featured Guests:
This episode focused on two major global flashpoints: mounting tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S. demands for open passage, and the evolving battlefield in Ukraine as Russian forces strike Kyiv. The hosts led timely, in-depth conversations with analysts and a U.S. lawmaker to dissect the geopolitical landscape and U.S. policy strategies. The episode also touched on public health (tinnitus prevalence) and concluded with a spirited news quiz.
Timestamps: [02:22]–[15:30]
Guests:
Diplomatic Stalemate:
Both Esfandiary and Wasser underscored that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are stuck. Both sides' “red lines are still too far apart and neither side has really shown any willingness to move towards the other.” (Dina Esfandiary, [03:27])
Iran’s Tactics:
Iran seeks to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, using attacks as leverage in negotiations:
"Iran... is really trying to claim ownership over the Strait of Hormuz and demonstrate that ultimately, you know, it's king there and the rest of the world has to recognize it." (Dina Esfandiary, [03:27])
U.S. Approach:
The U.S. wants Iran to “climb down from that position,” and uses military signaling and policy reversals (like oil sanction waivers) as carrots and sticks:
“Talk is cheap and actions are the things that actually matter here.” (Becca Wasser, [07:37])
Cyclical Conflict:
The current pattern—strikes interspersed with talks—is “going to be a feature, not a bug, as we move forward.” (David Gura, [02:32])
"We are looking at the potential for a protracted conflict, a long conflict where you do have these cycles of fighting and rest..." (Becca Wasser, [04:36])
Interpreting U.S. Policy Swings:
Esfandiary highlighted Tehran’s distrust after U.S. reversals on oil sanctions waivers:
"Every time they have found themselves in negotiations with the United States, they've either been bombed... or, in this case, made promises that the U.S. did not keep in the end." ([06:01])
"This is literally what it's going to look like for the foreseeable future."
—Dina Esfandiary, [03:27]
On technical talks:
"The MOU was like a one page broad strokes document where even the language was very vague and look where we are now as a result.... The fact that they're having technical talks, detailed talks on very specific issues, that's a good thing."
—Dina Esfandiary, [13:43]
On Iranian leadership:
"What the leadership tried to do with this week long funeral procession was to demonstrate unity..." (in reference to the Supreme Leader’s funeral) ([08:59])
Timestamps: [10:11]–[12:44]
Guests:
NATO Alliance Management:
President Trump is frustrated by the uneven burden-sharing among NATO allies:
"President Trump, not helping enough when it came down to the Iran war, not increasing defense spending fast enough, not buying enough American equipment..." (Becca Wasser, [11:15])
Turkey’s Strategic Position:
"Turkey emerged as a big winner. Erdogan had a huge win, which is, you know, Trump saying that he would reverse CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and allow Turkey to purchase the F-35." ([11:15])
Arms Sales and Defense Production:
The U.S. is reinforcing its commitment to arming European allies, considering “Patriot production in Ukraine and also selling Germany Tomahawk missiles.” (Becca Wasser, [11:15])
Underlying Tensions:
"That doesn't mean that tensions don't remain and they won't boil to the surface yet." —Becca Wasser, [12:44]
Timestamps: [18:24]–[34:47]
Battlefield Situation in Kyiv:
“There are a lot of shellings where I'm sitting right now in Kyiv of ballistic missiles... They’re actually winning on the front lines right now. They're actually capturing Russian territory, which is hugely significant.”
—Rep. McCaul, [19:21]
The Patriot Missile Urgency:
Ukraine’s acute need for Patriot missile systems is clear, both as a battlefield necessity and for morale.
“Where they're vulnerable right now is they have no way to defend themselves. There's no air defenses with respect to ballistic missiles.” ([19:21])
U.S.–Ukraine Weapons Cooperation:
McCaul discusses his bill—the Strategic Unmanned Systems Partnership Act—to formalize drone and weapons co-production with Ukraine:
“We’d be really...foolish not to be a full participant in the experiments going on in this laboratory...” ([22:50])
Morale and Momentum:
“Morale is high on the Ukraine side of this war... because they're winning.” ([25:06])
“The morale of the Russian Federation soldier is way down.”
Putin’s Position:
“Putin is feeling the pain. He's getting more desperate, and that's why the ballistic missiles are coming in. ...The average lifespan of a Russian soldier on the front line is a matter of hours to days.” ([27:25])
Concerns about Escalation:
McCaul warns about Russia’s potential for desperation, cautioning on tactical nuclear threats and stressing the importance of “peace through strength.”
“The last piece that I worry the most about is... the tactical nukes. That would be a real act of desperation by Mr. Putin.” ([31:12])
White House Engagement:
President Trump signaled robust support at the NATO summit, especially with an “85 minute long phone call” with Putin:
“You don’t get them to the table by being nice to him. You get them to the table by putting leverage on them. Peace through strength works.” ([29:36])
Middle East Cross-Reference:
McCaul also touched on the administration’s posture in the Middle East, expressing skepticism about progress with Iran:
“The worst thing that could happen is we negotiate a really bad deal for political reasons.” ([32:56])
Timestamps: [37:54]–[45:29]
Guest: Hannah Elliott
“There is a really big connection between poor mental health and tinnitus... There have even been cases of suicide related to tinnitus.” (Hannah Elliott, [42:11])
“Many people who have used the device say it helps... technicians think that it's very promising and hopefully will help lead this surge into more research, more funding, more treatment.” (Hannah Elliott, [43:58])
Timestamps: [48:29]–[54:47]
On Iran-U.S. Diplomacy:
“Both sides, red lines are still too far apart and neither side has really shown any willingness to move towards the other.” (Dina Esfandiary, [03:27])
On Ukraine’s Morale:
“Morale is high because they're winning. ...Morale of the Russian Federation soldier is way down.” (Rep. McCaul, [25:06])
On U.S. Geopolitical Leverage:
“You don’t get them to the table by being nice to him. ...Peace through strength works.” (Rep. McCaul, [29:36])
On Health and Tinnitus:
“Tinnitus is connected to brain health, which is connected to even cognitive decline and even dementia.” (Hannah Elliott, [43:58])
This episode painted a picture of a world still shaped by intractable geopolitical crises—in the Middle East and Ukraine—where high-stakes diplomacy, military innovation, and the psychology of war define the global order. It also reminded listeners of less conspicuous but significant challenges, like the mental and public health burden of tinnitus. Through smart analysis, vivid anecdotes, and the hosts’ lively chemistry, “Bloomberg This Weekend” offers a balanced and engaging look at the news shaping our world.