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- [00:00]
IBM AI Representative
So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need.
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David Gura
Now a global workforce of 300,000 can
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Chris Kennedy
use AI to fill their HR questions,
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IBM AI Representative
resolving 94% of common questions, not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Lets create smarter business.
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Optum Healthcare Representative
IBM Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more@business.optum.com Support for the show comes
- [01:01]
IBM AI Representative
from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full, read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC SEC registered advisor complete
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Chris Kennedy
disclosures available at public.com disclosures
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Christina Raffini
Bloomberg Audio
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Optum Healthcare Representative
Studios Podcasts Radio News welcome to the
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Christina Raffini
Bloomberg this Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini and Lisa Mateo. Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from the show.
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David Gura
You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on the podcast, but also make sure to join us live every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7am Eastern.
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Lisa Mateo
We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business App bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle and culture.
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David Gura
This morning, the New York Times reporting on concerns within the White House about another escalation with Iran that would put U.S. gulf, U.S. and Gulf allies at risk.
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Christina Raffini
That's right. The Times is reporting that President Trump could be holding off on a larger, a larger strike, in part due to a low supply of anti missile defenses. Now, U.S. ambassador to the UN Mike Walz is on NBC right now or will be soon. It looks like this was a prerecorded interview pushing back against that report, saying the US has all the equipment it needs. So to help us break this down, we've got Becca Wasser, she's Bloomberg Economics defense lead, and Chris Kennedy, he is the lead for economic statecraft. Becca, I want to start with you because I know you've been covering this stockpile and its depletion and where we are with these numbers. How real is the concern over the defensive missile supply for the US it seems interesting, if these reports are accurate, that the US Is now prescribing policy based on the integrity of the supply.
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Becca Wasser
Yeah, I think we're at a really interesting inflection point where right now, in the course of the conflict, there is a huge strain on US Air defense interceptors. That's not to say that the US does not have any left, but rather that there's a clear strain on the existing stockpiles, which are running low after this extended conflict with Iran, in part because of the sheer need not only from the United States States, which is trying to protect bases and troops, and some US Allies in the region, but also the allies themselves, who have depleted most of their air defense stockpiles and have been asking the United States for more. So at the end of the day, it's a pretty stark place to be in, but it's not necessarily the only thing that is dictating U.S. military policy. We've seen this song and dance before where President Trump has threatened high escalation, only to step back at the last moment to leave some room for diplomacy. We've also seen President Trump enter into feints in the past where he said that there will be no strikes, only to go ahead with that large operation. However, from my experience, if I'm looking at things right now, the US does not have sufficient defenses to weather the blowback that would likely come from Iran if the US Were to rapidly and extremely ramp up this conflict.
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David Gura
Get to Chris Kennedy here in just a minute. Becca, one more question to you as I look at your most recent piece for Bloomberg on all of this. You write the US Lacks the munitions depth to bomb Iran in perpetuity. The bigger risk is the US May run low of the right kinds of missiles. Help me understand what we know and what we don't know. My understanding is the size and scale of these arsenals is classified. We have some sense of what the US Has. How blind are we when it comes to kind of assessing what, what the US has at its disposal?
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Becca Wasser
We're pretty blind. But I think there are a few different rules of thumb that we can always rely on. We've seen, at least in the initial fighting during operation Epic Fury, US officials said that there were over 13,000 munitions that were expended and most of those were some of these higher end long range missiles that are in demand all over the globe. And so the US Is likely having wound down some of its stockpiles for those critical munitions, which means that it is either likely going to need to pull some of those missiles from other regions like the Indo Pacific, which could leave a potential gap for others to exploit, or try and find ways to bolster the production of munitions, which the US Is doing. But that's a slow moving effort. We are talking months, if not years to try and just produce a few more of some of those most advanced missiles and munitions.
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Lisa Mateo
Wow.
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Christina Raffini
Chris Kennedy, thank you for hanging in there. We do want to ask you more about the economic impact of all this. Because oil hit $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks, we now have concerns not only about what's going on in the Strait as it seems to drag on and just the cost of doing business with this level of instability, but now you have these threats from the Houthis, which is compromising exports not only in the Red Sea, but possibly production within Saudi Arabia. You know, they can and have before hit refineries and facilities there. What is your take on that second front? And if we're going to see that, if we have seen that start to price in, in the markets.
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Chris Kennedy
Yeah. So it's, it's definitely a challenge. So the Red Sea is now been the subject of several different attacks by the Houthis. Looking I just looked at the recent tanker traffic through, through the Red Sea and it is dropping over the past few days. Of course, many ships might be traveling without their transponders on. So it'll take a few days to really see what the impact has traffic. But we are getting anecdotal reports about ships turning around, having to traverse the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. And that just adds time to get oil to market. You know, on top of the the Middle east conflict, we've also seen Ukraine ramp up its attacks on Russian oil export infrastructure tankers. And so that's another bit of pressure that's been growing in the background as this conflict has continued.
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David Gura
Becca, you gamed out sort of what the President, his team might be thinking about when it comes to the future of this war. And you came up with three options. The US could continue to bomb Iran, could intensify the blockade and guidance of ships, or could launch an operation to forcibly reopen the Strait of of Hormuz. I wonder if you could kind of put those in order of likelihood as you see it, maybe order of difficulty as well. And where you think the administration might be, might be headed right now, I
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Becca Wasser
think the administration is firmly in that first bucket. They're looking at ways to potentially intensify the air war, to launch additional air and missile strikes against Iran, because that's the playbook that the President has relied upon. But at this juncture in the conflict, the President is starting to feel pressure where he probably needs to do something different, in part because some of those economic pressures that Chris has mentioned. So if that's the case, there's the two additional options. One would be to try and enforce the blockade even further, but really with that, try and make it so that the US can get more ships to through the Strait of Hormuz, which is becoming even more of a choke point than it already was. That means that the US Military would need to shift to a direct escort mission, which is something that is incredibly resource intensive and may not necessarily be on the table at this point in time. And then the last one is a operation to open the Strait, and that requires putting boots on the ground in Iranian soil. It is high risk. It is resource intensive. And once that happens, the escalation in this conflict is likely to go sky high. And that's where the conversation that we've been having about air defense interceptors is so important, because those troops would need to be protected as best possible, as well as other U.S. forces and allies across the region. In addition to that, the US could also potentially look at entering the fray in the Red Sea. That would further overstretch US Forces and assets, particularly some of those air defense missiles, too.
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Christina Raffini
Chris, we also have another front that is really impacting the price of oil, and that's the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Russia and how Ukrainian drones are penetrating Russian defenses and getting to hit these manufacturing and refining facilities. But now also you have reports potentially of Ukraine going after An Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Everything is connected when you look at global economies, but also when you look at politics. And as the economic statecraft lead, those seem to fold in nicely together. What is your take on how these two conflicts are antagonizing each other and working together to kind of make it at a hard time for oil prices kind of even more difficult. Where do you see this going?
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Chris Kennedy
Well, yeah, as you mentioned, the Iranians did not respond well to Ukraine's targeting of this particular ship, which I believe Ukraine said that it was involved in the transfer of weapons between the two countries, Russia and Iran. I do think what we're seeing is this, this pressure building on the global energy system. So just stepping back, you know, the US Publishes weekly updates on energy inventories, oil inventories. We're probably going to see a 16th straight week of oil stocks falling in the United States. We had a little bit of respite from this MOU period. We saw commercial stockpiles rise a little bit. But these releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have continued unabated. So we're estimating that those releases will essentially run out by October. It's possible the US could offer another release, but these, these stocks are limited. And so the additional pressure, you know, Russia has banned the export of diesel because of these attacks. Russia historically has provided about 10% of the global exported diesel supply. So that's a pretty significant hit. It hits the real economy everywhere. You know, another unknown is how long China can continue to effectively pause many of its oil imports. And we don't really know what's going on in China, but they've certainly helped to act as a buffer for the global energy system over the past five months by essentially dropping off, you know, 40% of their imports from the, from, from the world. So, you know, there are all of these different variables. Some are uncertain. Many of them are outside of the control of this president, certainly, and they're going to be adding pressure to his decision making.
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David Gura
Beck, as I'm listening to, Chris, I'm still stuck on something you said, which is about the US Kind of engaging with the Houthis. And my mind wanders back to April of 2025, when we saw the US do that. And there was that moment when I think a Super Hornet fell off the USS Harry Truman into the ocean. It was a difficult fight that they were waging there. And I wonder sort of what that portends about the US Kind of reengaging in that way. How difficult would it be for the US to fight the Houthis who have kind of reared their heads here several months into this conflict.
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Becca Wasser
That's a great question. Let's think about what happened last time. You mentioned that there were aircraft that rolled off the deck of a carrier and were lost at sea. But there was also over a thousand US Airstrikes on Yemen at that time, which ate into munitions stockpiles. Additionally, U.S. air and naval forces shot down over 480 Houthi drones and that left stockpiles pretty low for some of the important air defense interceptors as well, with U.S. navy officials saying that they cost in the billions of dollars and that stockpiles were nearly depleted. And that was just from some of these one off attacks from the Houthis during that time period. Right now, if the US Were to enter the fray, it would be like that once again. But that also means that that's occurring at the same time that the US Is prosecuting a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and using munitions and equipment and readiness to conduct that, as well as continuing its air campaign against Iran, which has been paused for two nights but could pick up at any moment, which again is depleting critical readiness, using US Forces and using up some of the most important munitions that the US Might need in a potential future conflict.
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Christina Raffini
And Chris, it's not just complicating supplies of munitions and oil, but other commodities as well. I see you retweeting friend of the show Stephen Shakinski, who we had on yesterday, him talking about lng. He said a global fight for LNG is brewing and Europe is losing. Europe's strategy of delaying LNG purchases until Hormuz reopens is backfiring, threatening efforts to refill storage for winter. What is going on there and how critical is this?
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Chris Kennedy
This is a really serious issue for Europe. Of course, the US Is in pretty good shape for LNG and if we could export more, but we're really capped out at how much we can export right now and help to backfill for Europe and other economies. I think the challenge right now is that Europe is competing with Asian economies that are also trying to ensure that they have sufficient supplies of lng, which goes into everything from power generation to petrochemical manufacturing. So, you know, Europe is, is in a position where they need to start resupplying their stocks before the winter. They can't count on Russia, of course, and there's limited amounts of export from the U.S. so if this conflict doesn't resolve, if we don't get these LNG supplies coming out of the Gulf again, it's going to cause some pain in Europe. And I'll also note that we saw early in the war that Iran targeted some of Qatar's LNG facilities. And these are very sensitive facilities. And if they are subject to significant kinetic attacks, that can cause long periods of them being offline. So that's, I think, one of the bigger risks of further escalation at this point.
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Christina Raffini
There's only a couple of seconds. But before we go, is it we can't export more because we lack the trains or the facilities to convert it into a movable quantity, or is it shipping or where is the, where's the rub?
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Chris Kennedy
There it sees export facilities, these LNG export terminals. So between now in the next five years, we're expecting to be able to double our export capacity. But right now the US Is drowning in LNG and we just can't get it out.
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Christina Raffini
That's really interesting.
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David Gura
Two of my favorite people at Bloomberg Economics, that's Chris Kennedy, Becca Wasser joining us this morning, Becca the defense lead at Bloomberg Economics, Chris, the economic statecraft lead, and whenever I'm in the D.C. bureau, always fun to wander over to
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Christina Raffini
their massively smart department. Thank you guys so much.
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David Gura
Thanks again. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
- [16:35]
IBM AI Representative
Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English, like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures quick one before you jump back in, you're listening for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions and turn scattered context into work they can use ChatGPT for business can help ChatGPT for business gives teams a shared workspace with admin, controls, permissions and access to work. And Codex and ChatGPT. This means your business can move from question to answer and code to rollout quicker. Join over 10 million business and enterprise users worldwide already using ChatGPT for work. Download the ChatGPT desktop app or contact sales to learn more.
- [18:19]
Optum Healthcare Representative
Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling the system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system. So care is connected, not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in home care. And then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients and those prescriptions. Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how.
- [19:28]
David Gura
Russia, famously known for its vodka and its culture of extreme intoxication. But just as vodka is central to the lives of many Russians, it is also central to understanding Russian history and politics.
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Christina Raffini
That's right. In the book Vodka, Politics, Alcohol, Autocracy and the Secret History of the Russian State, author Mark Lawrence Schrod explores original documents and archival evidence to analyze how vodka is hardwired into the Russian political system. System And Mark joins us now live on set. You are also an assistant professor of political science at Villanova. We are so happy to have you here. I stumbled across this book a couple weeks ago. It's absolutely fascinating. But you. You preface it by saying this is not about an ugly stereotype. This is not. And that's almost led to why people don't dive into how much of an issue this has been for decades, from czars to Medvedev, people have tried to tackle this problem and come up short. What's going on here?
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
Right. And thank you for having me. This is a fascinating topic and obviously something that's observed a lot of my time since I was a student back in Russia in the 1990s when the economy was in the Tank and, you know, and just living there for a long time. You're just like, okay, well there's something about this stereotype and we've all heard the stereotype, but then you're sort of living it. You're like, okay, there's a lot of alcohol going on right now, a lot of vodka. And so I kind of wanted to hammer at why, you know, rather than just sort of avoiding the unpleasantness, diving into it, you know, And a lot of the times it's just prefaced as some sort of cultural stereotype. Oh, Russians just love it and they don't. Right. I mean, it's not like they're just like sipping a vodka and then going, oh, what a great aroma.
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Lisa Mateo
No.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
Having a hard time choking down just like anybody else. But actually, I think it has to be more of a legacy of political and economic decisions that are at the heart of autocratic statecraft. Kind of putting the interests, the financial interests of the autocratic state ahead of the well being of their own people for generations upon generations, through the czars, through the Soviets, and unfortunately straight on through the present day.
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David Gura
Explain that a bit more. So the level of consumption is huge, 15 to 16 liters per person per year, I think is what I read. So people are consuming an incredible quantity of hard alcohol in another country. That might be seen as kind of a public health issue or concern there. It's not.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
It was so during a period of time between Putin's first two terms and then there was that interregnum where Dmitry Medvedev swapped positions for four years briefly.
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David Gura
Yes.
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Mike McGlone
Yeah.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
Well, one of his big initiatives was an anti alcohol campaign because he acknowledged that this is horrible, this is decimating our society, it's decimating our ability to field troops, it's decimating our tax base and all those sorts of things. So they tried to clamp down beginning about 2009 on alcohol consumption, using what I would say are fairly progressive policies informed by public decision or by public health professionals around the globe. And, you know, very incremental approaches, very well thought out. Little did he know though, perhaps that on the other side was that his president, Vladimir Putin, had actually been buying up and taking control of personally a very large percent of the, the Russian vodka market. And so a lot of those public health initiatives ended up focusing in on putting higher taxes not on vodka, but on beer, which is lower alcohol, probably better than vodka. So it's just completely upside down. So even the public health initiatives were pushing more vodka on people, which is just bizarro land. It's topsy turvy.
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Christina Raffini
But that almost kind of fits with what you talk about in the book. And that's throughout its history, kind of due to the way this was set up with grain production and with the advent of a tavern, vodka was used as a tool of the state. It was a big financial boom. Can you explain how that works? I mean, so much so that Tolstoy was a teetotaler, which I didn't know. And the Bolsheviks were vehemently anti booze because it was such a weapon of the state.
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David Gura
Right.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
And this is something, actually, is not. It started, you know, my interest started in Russia, but kind of expanded out globally in subsequent research. But it's fascinating how many people throughout history, including American history, are noteworthy prohibitionists. So Tolstoy, Lenin in the United States, Frederick Douglass, I would say Abraham Lincoln, you could say Thomas Jefferson was America's first prohibitionist. So it's fascinating because ultimately, the key to understanding that anti alcoholism, and you definitely saw it in the autocratic regimes in Russia, was that this is how. And it didn't take like a rabid Marxist to point this out. This is how the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. And so it was very.
- [24:28]
Christina Raffini
You couldn't trade for it.
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Optum Healthcare Representative
Right.
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Christina Raffini
You had to pay for vodka in hard currency.
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David Gura
Right.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
You had to. And it was strictly forbidden to make your own outside. This was part of the czar's monopoly on the tavern trade. And so the tavern keepers were known as tseluvalniki, which means the kissers. They kissed across to vow that they would not dilute, that they would not interrupt the revenues of the state that were going to the tsar. And so they were sort of the main interference points, or point of interface, I should say, between sort of Russian society and the Russian government. And that's essentially how you paid money into this whole system.
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David Gura
You wrote this book before Russia's first incursion into Ukraine, and some years have passed since then. And here we are in the middle of this war. And I'm curious, through the prism through which you've written this book, sort of how you're looking at this current conflict and the difficulty that we've seen reported that Russia has kind of fielding its army to continue to fight this war through this lens. What can we glean or what can we learn just about the kind of state of the conflict itself and the way that they're able to recruit people to fight in it?
- [25:37]
Mark Lawrence Schrad
Right. And it's been interesting to kind of sort of watch it through that particular Lens in the early years of the conflict, the Donbas War in particular, you had the Euromaidan revolution in Kyiv and then obviously the annexation of Crimea and sort of this low scale war in the Donbas region. It was sort of a study in contrast, because the Ukrainian side, which also has afflictions with alcohol and sort of vodka as part of that historical trajectory, but also has a lot more sort of European cultural influences, historical influences from the Austro Hungarian Empire and the areas around Lviv and so on. The protests that were going on there were very orderly. In fact, they had areas that were self sufficient policing in terms of making sure that we have sobriety, we don't want anything going wrong here. By contrast, the sort of inauguration of these rebels republics in the Donbas region by these pro Russian separatists were just drunken bacchanals, you know, and you had, you know, reporters on the scene reporting how everybody's drunk, everybody's falling apart on these sorts of things. And so, yeah, it was kind of an interesting contrast. It's like, all right, we've got it very clearly here that these are not the same protests and they're bringing different sort of historical baggage in those cases.
- [27:01]
Christina Raffini
But at some point, I mean, it impacts the functioning of the state because when you look at a military, it's got to impact readiness. And when you talk about historically, even the function of the Soviet state, you write about these insane dinner parties that Stalin used to have in which he used to insist his ministers who had work to do would stay very late in the. To the night. They would fake drunkenness early so they could try to go home and salvage the rest of their day. Talk about the, the work of this as almost a statecraft and an internal monitoring system. Because what was the goal? Getting people drunk enough that they would spill their secrets or they would tell them if they were spy.
- [27:35]
Mark Lawrence Schrad
Yeah, there was certainly an element to that. And I remember, David, don't do this to me.
- [27:40]
Christina Raffini
I'm not telling you my secrets.
- [27:41]
David Gura
If we go drink water in that.
- [27:42]
Christina Raffini
I don't know. I don't know.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
Yeah, no, like the, the opening scenes of the movie Death of Stalin.
- [27:47]
Christina Raffini
That's kind of what I was thinking
- [27:49]
Mark Lawrence Schrad
when I saw that movie. I was like, did they read like the first chapters of this book? Because it was. But literally, I talk about it in the book. It was, it was like a, you know, like a frat party with the devil. I mean, he's forcing everybody to drink with the intention of maybe divulging some secrets if they were secretly plotting to Overthrow, you know, sort of loose lip sync, ships kind of thing. So, yeah, so there was kind of this idea of keeping one's potential opponents off bay, whether that's off base a little bit, whether that's in the Kremlin, but also if you want to project that out in terms of sort of state society relations, there's something to be said about keeping the people sort of drunk and off base and unable to sort of mount a challenge to your own authority in that way. So it works a little bit both ways.
- [28:34]
David Gura
In the last few minutes we have here, let me just take advantage of you being a scholar of Russian politics and just to ask you how you're thinking about or viewing Vladimir Putin at this moment in time. I think there are a lot of folks who see him as maybe getting closer to having his back up against the wall. And I'm curious, looking at that kind of in the compliment of history, how you're thinking about him in this moment.
- [28:52]
Mark Lawrence Schrad
Yeah, it's, you know, it's. I can't claim to have a direct line to Vladimir Putin, and I'm very suspicious of anybody who does claim to have that. But one of the things I constantly notice, especially in sort of Western media coverage is, is this notion of I'm calling, it's like a village literature on sort of the beginning of the end of Putin.
- [29:13]
David Gura
Interesting.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
And I wrote a piece, I think, for Foreign Policy a number of years ago, kind of tracing these, and I was finding beginning of the end of Putin stories going back to the kursk disaster in 2002. So you can go all the way back. Oh, Covid, this is the beginning of
- [29:27]
Christina Raffini
the reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. The second time we've used that this hour.
- [29:32]
Mark Lawrence Schrad
But my position was always like, well, as a betting person, you can always say, well, this is the beginning of the end. This is the beginning of the end. Well, every time you're going to be wrong, except for once. So it's better to take the opposite approach and say this is probably not the end of Putin, and that way you can only be wrong once, which is the one way to look at it there.
- [29:52]
Christina Raffini
But as you look at the drivers that have fermented change in the past, what finally gets it to that breaking point? There's so little opposition left in that country. Even if Putin falls, what replaces him? And could that be worse?
- [30:05]
Mark Lawrence Schrad
Right. And that's, that's the key, I think, to a lot of this, is that I think we take, especially in the west, we kind of project our notions of popular sovereignty. The sovereignty lies with the people. And then we have to keep the people placated, at least, you know, some degree of public approval, maybe not, you know, expressed through, you know, direct democratic initiatives or whatnot. But there still is a sense that, well, you know, if we can't push the Russian people too far or else they're going to rebel. I think we've passed that point where we're that sovereignty is linked to the will of the Russian people. So nowadays you're seeing these lines of cars, you know, lining up, queuing up for gas and now the attacks on other ones, and everybody's just saying, well, where's the Russian people's breaking point? I don't think the Russian people are going to break anytime soon.
- [30:52]
Christina Raffini
All right, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you so much. The book is Vodka Politics. Mark Laurentrod, thank you so much for driving in. We appreciate. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend, right after this.
- [31:06]
IBM AI Representative
Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English, like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by
- [32:08]
Chris Kennedy
Public Advisors, LLC SEC registered advisor complete
- [32:12]
IBM AI Representative
disclosures available@public.com disclosures quick one before you jump back in, you're listening for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use. ChatGPT for Business can help ChatGPT for Business gives teams a shared workspace with admin controls, permissions and access to work and codecs in ChatGPT. This means your business can move from question to answer and code to rollout quicker. Join over 10 million business and enterprise users worldwide already using ChatGPT for work. Download the chatgpt desktop app or contact sales to learn more.
- [32:51]
Optum Healthcare Representative
Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling the system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system. So care is connected, not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person. From primary care doctors to mental health support and even in home care. And then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients in those prescriptions. Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how,
- [33:59]
David Gura
For the first time on record, the city of Miami, the metropolitan area more expensive than than greater New York City. I'm going to repeat that again. Miami more expensive than New York City.
- [34:08]
Christina Raffini
For our radio listeners, my face is not buying.
- [34:10]
David Gura
Stupefied with South Florida's consumer price index jumping 36% since the year 2019. And according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Miami's cost of living has surpassed New York's with private school tuition, insurance costs, and restaurant spending higher than they were one year ago.
- [34:28]
Christina Raffini
All right, for more on how Miami allegedly got so pricey, we're joined once again by our resident Miami and Miami.
- [34:35]
David Gura
And that's the right demonym.
- [34:36]
Christina Raffini
You can correct me if I'm wrong. Senior commodity status, Mike McGlone. Mike, you used to live in New York, right? Are you these people who defected to Florida? What is your take on all this?
- [34:46]
Mike McGlone
Well, the bottom line is from the top down in New York, if you get $100,000 bonus, the state of New York and the city of New York off the top take 16%. In Miami, it's zero. That's an unstoppable force. So everything else is kind of catching up to that.
- [35:02]
Christina Raffini
Okay, but there's other. I'm sorry, go ahead.
- [35:04]
David Gura
No, you go ahead.
- [35:05]
Christina Raffini
I was just saying there's other costs associated with living with Florida. Like our reporter found, you got to think about things like property insurance. And also you have to have cars and you have to have multiple cars because you can't get away, get around anywhere else. And if you're trying to be cool, you're probably spending a lot on cars.
- [35:19]
David Gura
You got a nice car.
- [35:20]
Christina Raffini
Aren't there all these other little expenses that add up?
- [35:24]
Mike McGlone
Well, I think you nailed it there. If you're trying to be cool, it's expensive. But if you're like me and just try to go under the radar and you commute on a bike to the office, that's nine miles on bike paths, it's ideal. You don't have to pay tolls, you don't have to worry about traffic. And you get to look at all those people sitting in traffic, say, yeah, sucks to be you. I'm good and I'm not in traffic. But the key thing is, bottom line though, it's also, it's the weather for six months a year is nice. But one thing I think is really happening in Miami is, and I noticed it's really catching up, obviously there's the traffic. But one thing also I've heard from a real estate standpoint, looks like we somewhat peaked here and starting to head lower. And I had lucky enough Bloomberg let me come here in 2021. The thing is we're expanding. But the bottom line also from our standpoint is this is where a lot of sales are. We're getting more and more sales there. And the reason is things like Ken Griffin county is because the tax treatment's better.
- [36:13]
David Gura
I look here at the cost of insurance, a huge consideration as well because of hurricanes there. And in this piece, the highest home insurance premiums in the nation, an average of $8,292 last year. That's according to Insurify estimates. Mike, I know you're very familiar with Coral Gables in South Miami and Pine Crest, all the high tone neighborhoods in Miami. He bikes around, all bikes around property. But what are your observations? Just about how much property prices have skyrocketed here. I saw an analogy in the piece here that if you're buying one of those houses on a square foot basis now, it is kind of comparable to what you might pay here on the Upper east side in Manhattan.
- [36:51]
Mike McGlone
The quote I heard from a prominent real estate person I heard is his quote was, if I could short Florida real estate, I would. I think it's very peakish. The one thing you also notice, the construction cranes are everywhere. I noticed that I travel a lot lately to Chicago and Philadelphia and there's no construction crates. But here they're everywhere. That's usually a classic sign about pink. So I think We're Z. It's near very peak type activity. But also key thing is, remember Miami and Florida kind of leads the country. If it starts heading lower, it's a high beta. The rest of the country heads downward. But for now it's also summer. It's not the time to be here. Come to when the weather gets bad like it did last winter in New York, people flock down.
- [37:33]
David Gura
The snowbirds will flock down.
- [37:34]
Christina Raffini
Christina, I mean I'm kind of arguing against myself here as I look at some of these numbers because I having just moved to New York from D.C. which I thought was a fairly expensive city, I grew up in Colorado. The, the price of things here has just really caught me off guard. But when you look at what Miami is now charging, I mean the CPI in Miami has jumped 36% since 2019. When you look at, you know, home falls, this article says until recently if you moved like Mike did from New York to Florida, you could expect this huge windfall from selling whatever your property here was and investing it down there. But that's getting harder and harder to do because you're getting premiums on these Florida, Florida real estate. The one thing I will say though is you get more square footage still in Miami for the price. And if you are trying to afford New York, even if you own your place, you are still paying these astronomical condo fees. I mean I know somebody who owns their place outright but their condo maintenance fee is like 5k a month, which is insane to me. Is that still the case in Miami? You still are not dealing with, with homeowner fees? Well, homeowner fees, yes, but I mean what Mike, form words, I'm clearly not forming them. But like what's your take on that? Is it still better to get an apartment in Miami? It's cheaper or it's not.
- [38:48]
Mike McGlone
I like the year round fact that I can, I can live by a beach and commute nine miles and year round I don't have to wear like boots and a hat and gloves all the time. But one thing that happened right away, anecdotal is I did get hit with assessment the first we moved in partly because of what happened in Surfside, fully expected that. But now it's like where do we go from here? And I think one thing is, the thing is we've leveled out and the bottom line is where's the migration most that's happening in this country? It's not just New York. I'm you know, actually originally from Chicago. It's a migration away from high tax states towards Lower tax states. To me that's an unstoppable force. It looks like Miami somewhat probably peaked for a while at such high levels.
- [39:26]
David Gura
Mike, let's talk about food. In this piece on the terminal there's a great line. It's either carbone or a cubano that there's not much in the way of kind of mid grade options here when it comes to food. So as you've kind of navigated your new city, do you find that to be true? Have all the ancillary things kept up with the building of residential towers and commercial towers?
- [39:49]
Mike McGlone
I think so. I have never had a problem getting good food at a decent price. Now everything's gone up. But I guess I'm kind of lower end. I don't wait in line at restaurants typically if I have to make a reservation, my wife does that. But no, I'm good with that. I haven't found a major difference and it's just the. I don't find that much difference. Also depends on your level. If you're not trying to be cool, which I'm not, I find no problem with the food.
- [40:15]
Christina Raffini
I just, I love that you ride a bike. I would not have had that on my, on my pegboard for you. I'm wondering, it is a fun story, but I'm wondering what this rise and gentrification is almost the wrong word. But these high rises and this higher standard of living in Miami, just urban growth. Yeah, urban growth. It has done for. We're talking on a very high end here. I'm wondering if this is putting the squeeze even more on medium income and lower income families and communities that make Miami kind of what it is.
- [40:41]
Mike McGlone
It certainly is. One thing that's fairly clue in Miami that I actually love is I am a gringo in many parts of Miami, I mean language, the first language is Spanish. Now you go to Fort Lauderdale, the first language is English. But I do enjoy that. I enjoy the multicultural environment. But it's getting much harder for your average person if they don't own a place, if they owned a home that's from 20 years ago, those homes have gone up a lot. But if you're just renting, yeah, they're starting to fall behind. It's getting more and more difficult.
- [41:07]
Lisa Mateo
Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend right after this.
- [41:15]
IBM AI Representative
Support for the show comes from public.com. if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my Direct Index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
- [42:24]
Optum Healthcare Representative
let's talk about health care for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling the system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in home care. And then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients and those prescriptions. Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how the
- [43:24]
IBM AI Representative
thing about AI for business, it may
- [43:26]
Chris Kennedy
not automatically fit the way your business works.
- [43:29]
IBM AI Representative
At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT
- [43:36]
Chris Kennedy
and procurement processes, we've reduced cost by millions, slashed repetitive tasks, and freed thousands
- [43:42]
IBM AI Representative
of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business IBM.
- [44:03]
Christina Raffini
Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend, or BT Dubs. I'm Christina Rafini with David Gura, and Lisa Mateo is here to run you through some of the stories you might have missed this week. Lisa, what you got for us?
- [44:13]
Lisa Mateo
All right, so what Age did you guys start putting into retirement?
- [44:16]
Christina Raffini
I was not where I thought that question was going. My goodness.
- [44:18]
David Gura
Let's keep it light.
- [44:19]
Christina Raffini
Okay. Happy Sunday. I'm gonna drink my coffee. David, you wanna, you wanna take this one?
- [44:23]
David Gura
No, I bought one.
- [44:24]
Christina Raffini
Was it like 30?
- [44:25]
Lisa Mateo
20s?
- [44:25]
David Gura
20s.
- [44:26]
Lisa Mateo
20s. Okay, 20s.
- [44:27]
Christina Raffini
20s. When I got my first full time job at my old network, one of the old guys said, you will max out that 401k contribution. And he was right. And so I've done it since my 20s.
- [44:38]
Lisa Mateo
Excellent. Well, this is the topic of our latest Bloomberg article. It's called Gen Z's Retirement Maxers.
- [44:43]
Mike McGlone
Yes.
- [44:43]
Lisa Mateo
Two X's. Two X's.
- [44:45]
Christina Raffini
Yes.
- [44:45]
Lisa Mateo
Choosing savings over doom Spending. So a lot more Gen Zers. They're putting away half their income and they're living cheaply.
- [44:52]
David Gura
Half their income?
- [44:53]
Lisa Mateo
Half their income, I'm telling you. And you know what?
- [44:55]
Christina Raffini
They are not paying New York rents.
- [44:57]
Lisa Mateo
I will say they're starting at 19. Wow, this is. What age is it because so many
- [45:01]
Christina Raffini
of them are living at home.
- [45:02]
Lisa Mateo
It's because a lot of things, they think Social Security is going to run out. They think that AI is going to take over a lot of their jobs. So they want to be financially secure. So maybe they don't have to take a job they don't want and stick with it just because they need the money. So they want to have the money started and banked away now.
- [45:16]
Optum Healthcare Representative
So.
- [45:16]
Lisa Mateo
So it's something that they're doing with
- [45:19]
David Gura
the level of determinism. Maxing.
- [45:20]
Christina Raffini
Maxing.
- [45:21]
Lisa Mateo
It is. It is.
- [45:22]
Christina Raffini
I'm getting tired of that word. But I'll allow it here.
- [45:25]
David Gura
Wow, that's. So this must be a change. This hasn't been happening for a long time.
- [45:28]
Lisa Mateo
It's part of a movement. Okay. It's called fire, which stands for financial independence. Retire Early.
- [45:33]
Christina Raffini
There's always an acronym.
- [45:34]
David Gura
Yes, there's always an acronym of some adherence to this.
- [45:37]
Chris Kennedy
The only.
- [45:38]
Lisa Mateo
Oh, really?
- [45:39]
David Gura
But it's not even. I think it's like they really want to retire extremely early. Like in their 40s. Early 40s.
- [45:45]
Lisa Mateo
That's early.
- [45:45]
David Gura
Yeah.
- [45:45]
Christina Raffini
Oh, wow.
- [45:46]
David Gura
What are you gonna do with your stuff? I mean, the world's your oyster if you've saved like what, like 80% or something like that.
- [45:51]
Lisa Mateo
It's tough. It's tough. But the only thing they're doing wrong, which experts are saying is that they're focusing so much on the saving is that they're not paying their debt, their credit cards.
- [46:00]
David Gura
Oh, not focusing enough on the living. They're focusing on the saving but not on the living.
- [46:04]
Christina Raffini
That's the other thing is, like, you're only young once. Like, I do think you shouldn't spend recklessly. But there are some things. Times where you should just buy that ticket and go. Like, life is short and it is hard to plan, especially in the world we are in today. So you just never know.
- [46:15]
David Gura
All right.
- [46:16]
Christina Raffini
Balance is okay. All right.
- [46:17]
Lisa Mateo
As a kid, did you get allowance?
- [46:19]
David Gura
Yes.
- [46:20]
Lisa Mateo
Yes. All right. Were we always fighting with mom and dad for this allowance? Okay.
- [46:24]
Becca Wasser
Because.
- [46:24]
Christina Raffini
No, it was a set amount. I got it and didn't get it.
- [46:27]
Lisa Mateo
You get what you get and you don't get upset.
- [46:28]
David Gura
If I were young now, I'd be putting it in my 401.
- [46:30]
Lisa Mateo
See? Exactly. This one is from New York magazine. Okay. This is from New York. When it's barely enough money for Boba, New York City parents and teens tussle over how much allowance is enough.
- [46:43]
David Gura
It's definitely not enough for Boba.
- [46:45]
Lisa Mateo
In New York City, it's not enough for Boba. And kids are having to struggle. They're struggling. They can't get their Boba because they're getting $5 a week.
- [46:52]
David Gura
In a lot of the radio audience, we're seeing video here of Mimi's, which you'd brought up in a previous segment, which is like $30. Frozen yogurt.
- [46:58]
Lisa Mateo
Very expensive frozen yogurt. But they're getting five. Some kids are, though, getting like $200 a week. So it's putting a lot of stress on the kids. Parents experts are saying stress on the
- [47:09]
David Gura
kids getting 200 a week.
- [47:11]
Lisa Mateo
Well, think about it. You know, you're going out and you're going for your Boba, and then you have a kid next to you who gets 200 bucks a week, and you're sitting there with your measly five. So it's putting.
- [47:19]
David Gura
Not able to get the Laurens, not
- [47:21]
Lisa Mateo
to mention the parents. I mean, the parents hope to fork over the money. Just saying it's a big fight in our house.
- [47:28]
David Gura
I've been talking about.
- [47:28]
Christina Raffini
About Boba.
- [47:29]
Lisa Mateo
I think my daughter gets about 15 a week, but she's. A week.
- [47:33]
Christina Raffini
No, $15 a week.
- [47:36]
David Gura
Big tapioca fee.
- [47:39]
Christina Raffini
Okay.
- [47:40]
David Gura
Wow.
- [47:41]
Lisa Mateo
All right.
- [47:41]
Christina Raffini
I do like Boba, but I don't like paying for it.
- [47:43]
Lisa Mateo
Yes.
- [47:43]
Christina Raffini
Yeah.
- [47:44]
Lisa Mateo
Okay. Company retreats, right? If some companies do that, you go on the picnic or whatever. Would you like a. Btw,
- [47:52]
David Gura
we need
- [47:52]
Lisa Mateo
to do one because it's a hot new thing. Okay? This one is in the Wall Street Journal. Don't kill corporate retreats. Make them more like a kid's. Birthday party. So instead of doing these things.
- [48:01]
Christina Raffini
Really my nightmare, but. Okay.
- [48:03]
Lisa Mateo
You don't like the Natsap Wraith or the egg things? No, all those.
- [48:08]
Christina Raffini
Yes.
- [48:09]
David Gura
The orange beneath your neck.
- [48:10]
Lisa Mateo
Three days in Cape Cod. Okay. You're roasting marshmallows. You're potato sack racing. You're building human pyramids. Okay. You're doing all the fun things like kids do. And crossfalls. Exactly.
- [48:20]
David Gura
Do we do it right now, kids?
- [48:22]
Lisa Mateo
Do you.
- [48:23]
Christina Raffini
How do you think that will end for you, David Gura?
- [48:25]
Lisa Mateo
Well, so they're saying forget the lunches, forget the dinners with the cocktails. People get out of hand and people don't know how to behave. Do something like this and then, you know, you can have a good time and you can bond with your coworkers.
- [48:36]
Christina Raffini
I say we do it adult summer camp. I mean, we talked about adult summer camp. Like I'm happy to go do some potato sack races. Potato sack races.
- [48:43]
Lisa Mateo
Potato sack races. Golf and ski trips are. Sometimes they try to do those, but they're not good because some people are not good at golf. I would not be good at that at all.
- [48:50]
Christina Raffini
I'm not good at skiing, but I'm really good at. After skiing. I'm really good at like the chalet.
- [48:54]
Mike McGlone
Yeah.
- [48:54]
Christina Raffini
I'm a pro at.
- [48:55]
David Gura
Okay.
- [48:56]
Christina Raffini
Yeah, real good at it.
- [48:57]
Lisa Mateo
All right. Big movie weekend. Okay, so movie theaters is from the New York Times. They're embracing the lucrative business of buckets. We're talking about the popcorn buckets. Okay. And they're these big things. Sometimes they're designed for major movies. They can sell as much as $70. Okay, I'm sorry, there's a couple behind you have the replica of IMAX of director's Imax camera for 50 bucks.
- [49:19]
David Gura
These are like not just your cardboard.
- [49:21]
Lisa Mateo
No, these are like high tech. This is a 22 inch rendering of the Trojan horse for $70 filled to the brim with popcorn.
- [49:29]
David Gura
Epic.
- [49:29]
Lisa Mateo
And they're collecting people collect them. So it's. It's a clean.
- [49:33]
David Gura
They're so greasy.
- [49:34]
Lisa Mateo
They're very.
- [49:34]
David Gura
Aren't they? You've got that kind of fake butter.
- [49:36]
Christina Raffini
Do you not own like some soap and a sponge?
- [49:39]
Lisa Mateo
What do you do with it after?
- [49:40]
David Gura
Not dishwasher.
- [49:41]
Mike McGlone
I don't know.
- [49:42]
Lisa Mateo
But it's. There's a few companies, actually three that make these different buckets. So it's a little bit of competition there. But they're making good money. I'm telling you. I don't. I would not fork over the popcorn,
- [49:54]
David Gura
but I guess maybe the popcorn's not the point.
- [49:55]
Christina Raffini
When was the last time you guys went to a movie theater? Recently?
- [49:57]
David Gura
A few months ago.
- [49:58]
Lisa Mateo
I'm going this week.
- [49:59]
Christina Raffini
Are you the Odyssey finally.
- [50:01]
David Gura
The Odyssey.
- [50:01]
Christina Raffini
I'm not getting the Trojan horse.
- [50:03]
Lisa Mateo
Not buying the Trojan horse.
- [50:04]
Christina Raffini
I'm not doing it.
- [50:05]
David Gura
Put it on the company card. I'd like to see that. I'd like to see how it looks.
- [50:08]
Christina Raffini
If someone were to sneak into your house using a Trojan horse style object, what would trick you?
- [50:13]
David Gura
I guess that would be popcorn bucket, maybe giant popcorn bucket.
- [50:17]
Christina Raffini
Lisa I feel like it'd be some sort of like expensive workout equipment.
- [50:19]
David Gura
David maybe somebody's in the treadmill hiding away.
- [50:23]
Christina Raffini
Oh gosh. Just a really large giant handmade tie. Bring that right in your house.
- [50:27]
David Gura
Leave you with that amazing image. Although some basic images
- [50:32]
Christina Raffini
thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg this Weekend podcast. Don't forget to tune in live for the show every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7am Eastern.
- [50:40]
David Gura
We're on Bloomberg Television Radio and the Bloomberg Business app, bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle and culture.
- [50:50]
Optum Healthcare Representative
Health care doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more@business.optum.com these days it seems like
- [51:21]
IBM AI Representative
AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust those serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, Secure any agent Okta secures. AI Wise is the smart way to manage the currencies you need around the globe. When you send money abroad using your bank, you could get hit with hidden fees and exchange rate markups. There's a better way.
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Mark Lawrence Schrad
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IBM AI Representative
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