Breaking Beauty Podcast: "Beauty Math 101: Shop Smarter, Not Harder – How-to Get Real Value from Your Beauty Buys"

Date: October 29, 2025
Host(s): Jill Dunn and Carlene Higgins
Guest: Rachel Wiseman (Investment banker turned beauty creator)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into “beauty math,” a practical framework to help consumers get real value from their beauty purchases. Hosts Jill and Carlene welcome Rachel Wiseman, a former investment banker and current beauty creator, celebrated for her viral “Beauty Math” series. The trio unpacks how to analyze product value, the phenomena of price hikes and “shrinkflation,” whether refills actually save money, and how to spot marketing tricks ahead of major shopping events like the Sephora Sale.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Rachel’s Background & The Rise of “Beauty Math”

• Rachel’s Journey (08:00–10:27)

  • Studied finance at Queen’s University; completed a two-year analyst program in investment banking post-grad.
  • Transitioned into tech startup world, blending love for beauty with analytical expertise.
  • “I truly wouldn't be able to do what I’m doing now ... without having that experience.” — Rachel Wiseman (08:54)

• How Beauty Math Began (11:10–12:49)

  • Rachel noticed the lack of a practical value framework for beauty shopping.
  • Began with product-by-product price/volume comparisons, formalized into spreadsheets.
  • “People spend so much money on beauty and at the same time there’s so much noise and hype cycles and marketing gimmicks…There wasn’t really any way to navigate it.” — Rachel (12:32)

The Beauty Math Method: How-to Shop Smarter

• Breaking Down Purchases (15:12–15:57)

  • Rachel’s rule: Buy jumbo sizes for products you love and finish; minis for products you’re merely sampling.
  • “There’s not a right or wrong. You have to ask yourself: What do I actually use? What am I going to finish? And what is worth it in that sense?” — Rachel (15:53)

• Using Price Per Unit (16:58–17:27)

  • Hosts explain grocery store “price per unit” labels and wish for the same in cosmetics.
  • Rachel’s spreadsheets fill that gap: accessible via her Linktree, by category, free for all (17:30).

• How the Spreadsheets Work (17:56–19:36)

  • Covers most products at Sephora and Ulta; compares by product category.
  • Intentionally does not mix drugstore with prestige items for apples-to-apples value.
  • “It’s impossible to be all encapsulating because I’m only one human... That’s why I haven’t ventured into drugstore yet.” — Rachel (17:56)

Pricing Tactics: Sales, “Anchor Price,” & Shrinkflation

• Median as “Anchor Price” (25:12–26:47)

  • Rachel uses the median price per mL/gram in each category as a benchmark (not mean, as outliers skew).
  • “So that’s really what the anchor price is—the going rate in terms of price per unit of measurement.” — Rachel (25:12)
  • Helps shoppers judge if a product’s price is justified by performance, packaging, etc.

• Sale Strategies and “Sneaky” Price Hikes (27:05–29:14)

  • Some retailers raise prices right before big sales, so the “discounted” price is basically what it was before.
  • It’s legal unless making a false price reference.
  • “I feel like brands somewhat time their annual price increases with pre-Sephora sales events. It's kind of in a gray area…” — Rachel (27:37)

• Shrinkflation & Sneakflation (29:28–33:30)

  • Shrinkflation: downsizing product without lowering price (e.g. Milk Makeup blush stick shrunk to a fifth of its size, price unchanged).
    • “These contour sticks got five times smaller and no cheaper.” — Jill summarizing Rachel’s earlier viral post (33:51)
    • Rachel notes most buyers never finished the original jumbo blush sticks, so utility may not be diminished.
  • Sneakflation: formula or ingredient changes with no label clarity.
    • “It’s so hard as a consumer to track that... especially with amount of actives in certain skincare.” — Rachel (31:01)

• Formula Changes—When Rebrands Hide Cost Cuts (31:01–32:00)

  • Brands sometimes reformulate under the guise of "new & improved," sometimes just to reduce costs.
  • Skincare is most prone, as subtle ingredient swaps are easy to miss.

Transparency & Brand Practices

• Shout-Outs to Transparent Brands (39:25–43:16)

  • High-value brands Rachel admires: Tower 28 (affordable, high-quality, multi-use makeup), Saie (multi-use glow products), The Inkey List (great cleansing balm), drugstore classics like CeraVe.

  • Brands like The Ordinary and ELF praised for open pricing and small, transparent increases due to tariffs.

  • “They posted on Instagram and said ‘We will be raising our prices by this amount due to tariffs’…honestly respect.” — Carlene (42:07)

  • The Ordinary’s Manhattan store “egg stunt”—highlighting inflation—serves as awareness marketing rather than pure commerce.

  • Brand Moves in Tough Markets

    • Smaller brands are reducing SKUs rather than hiking prices across the board (e.g. Renee Rouleau discontinuing less popular items).
    • “I think that’s a smart tactic, because rather than raising the price of people's favorites, you let them know, hey, we’re taking away these ones...” — Rachel (45:01)

The Refill “Revolution”: Savvy or Scam?

• Examining Refill Economics (46:48–51:38)
  • Refills often don’t save much money ($8 off a $100 product).
  • “The reality is for them to fully end-to-end produce the full product and then to only give you an 8% discount… the packaging costs more than 8% of the product. So you’re technically paying more for the refill than the full size product.” — Rachel (47:53)
  • Caudalie is one brand that gives a ~20% discount on refills—Rachel considers that threshold “worth it.”
  • Perfume is an example where meaningful refill savings (especially in multi-year collectible packaging) would make sense.
  • Some luxury brands (Lisa Eldridge, Louis Vuitton, Chanel) have refillable lipstick systems, though discounts vary.

Holiday Shopping Advice: Advent Calendars? Gift Sets?

• Advent Calendars: Not Worth It (55:06–55:48)

  • Rachel: “I hate Advent calendars...It feels like they just put their leftover minis in... It’s just a random collection of things you don’t really want.”
  • Only exception: La Mer’s, as every single product is truly luxe/travel-usable.

• Gift Sets: The Real Value (56:35–57:44)

  • “If I’m wanting to give somebody a really good value item, I love the gift and value sets... The trick is making sure it’s something you’ll actually use.” — Rachel (56:55)
  • Minis can represent good value when full-size use is unlikely (e.g. Makeup Forever artist pencil minis).

• Application to Real Life

  • “I love that you’re kind of like cost per wear, like the way that we are with clothing. It’s all about utility.” — Carlene (57:44)
  • Rachel applies this logic to beauty: know your true usage rate, stay honest about “how much you really use.”

Hot Take: Where to NEVER Splurge

• Rachel’s “Not Worth It” Category (58:22–59:07)
  • “Fancy sunscreen is a no. Even if it’s infused in your skin tint or your foundation... you should always just use a good proper SPF no matter what.”
  • Plug for Beauty of Joseon and accessible K-beauty from YesStyle (08:39).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I’ve never met a single person who’s able to go into Sephora and leave feeling like they didn’t just get robbed. Except for me.” — Rachel (14:49)
• “People spend so much money on beauty and... there’s so much noise and hype cycles and marketing gimmicks… there wasn’t really any way to navigate it [until now].” — Rachel (12:32)
• “Shrinkflation is specifically the product size decreasing and price either doesn’t decrease or... maybe increases.” — Rachel (29:33)
• “For them to fully end-to-end produce the full product and then to only give you an 8% discount to buy what’s inside... you’re technically paying more for the refill than the full-size product.” — Rachel (47:53)
• “Fancy sunscreen is a no for me... The value is so effective, and they’re so good.” — Rachel (58:22)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | 08:00 | Rachel’s background and how “Beauty Math” started | | 11:10 | Explaining the birth of Beauty Math and value spreadsheets | | 15:12 | Rachel’s practical shopping and “finish rate” strategy | | 17:30 | Spreadsheets: what’s tracked, how to access them | | 25:12 | “Anchor price”: using the median as a rate for comparison | | 27:05 | Pre-sale price hikes and retailer strategies | | 29:28 | Shrinkflation and sneakflation in beauty | | 33:01 | The Milk Makeup blush stick shrinkflation case study | | 39:25 | Brands consistently delivering value (Tower 28, Inkey List) | | 41:21 | The Ordinary’s egg pricing stunt/inflation awareness | | 46:48 | The economics (and ethics) of refills in beauty | | 55:06 | Advent calendars: value or waste? | | 56:35 | Why gift/value sets are often the smartest buy | | 58:22 | The one thing Rachel never splurges on: fancy sunscreen |

Final Takeaways

• Shop for what you use. Be honest about your finish rate; the bigger is not always the better buy.
• Look beyond flashy “deals.” Know the anchor price, compare price per unit, and don’t fall for pre-sale markups.
• Refills may not actually save you money. Pay attention to the math and seek at least a 20% price break.
• Brand transparency matters. Support brands open about pricing shifts and rationale.
• Don’t fall for “value” in holiday calendars unless you love the gamble. Target gift sets and minis you’ll genuinely use.

”At the end of the day, beauty math isn’t about never splurging or having fun—it’s about having a framework and shopping with intention.” — Synthesis of Rachel's insights

For more details, product links, and guest info:
Visit breakingbeautypodcast.com
Rachel’s spreadsheets: via her LinkTree (see her bio)