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Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
Saagar Enjeti
Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
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Learn more at AMU Apus Edu Steady through every mission hey guys, Sager and Krystal here.
Saagar Enjeti
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
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This is the only place where you.
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Can find honest perspectives from the left.
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And the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
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We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we.
Saagar Enjeti
Hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Friday. How's everybody doing?
Ryan Grim
How you doing?
Saagar Enjeti
Excellent. Bunch of interesting stuff this morning. We've got Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded not totally to Trump but like kind of low key a little bit to Trump.
Krystal Ball
So that's really to Marco Rubio to.
Ryan Grim
One of his lieutenants, John Bolton.
Saagar Enjeti
Marco Rubio. Many people who who get to have the benefit of this particular Nobel Peace Prize. We also have the ceasefire officially in effect. We're going to take a look. We're going to rekindle Ryan's feud with Jesse Waters. So you guys definitely want to check that out. All kinds of stuff going on in terms of Trump and Chicago, etc. That we want to check in on as well. But wanted to start with the fact that that cease fire in Gaza is officially in effect. Ryan, like what do we know about what's actually going on there and how things are looking?
Ryan Grim
Yeah, it went into effect at what, 5am our time, I believe. Israel says that it has redeployed its troops to the lines that they have agreed upon, but they will continue to carry out operations basically in self defense. Like if they feel like they're being threatened, they will continue to attack Palestinians. I think in the last 24 hours, at least 17 Palestinians were, were killed. But they also can.
Saagar Enjeti
That's not really my understanding of a ceasefire.
Ryan Grim
No. Well, that is the understanding that the Israeli government usually brings to a ceasefire. They reached a ceasefire many months ago with Lebanon and have been striking Lebanon on a weekly or almost daily basis. So the level of the strikes, the number of strikes will certainly reduce. But Israel is suggesting that it won't reduce down to zero. Now that they have officially agreed to it. It'll be time to, you know, go try to find all of the captives that need to be released and then also try to find the bodies. Meanwhile, Israel is then supposed to begin the process of releasing its 250 lifetime. You know, what they call lifers, these Palestinians serving life sentences, as well as what it's 1700 people who, that they, who they basically were holding as hostages, men, women and children that they had picked up in Gaza after October 7, who they say have nothing to do with October 7, but have been in detention anyway. So they're going to release some of those now.
Saagar Enjeti
Is Marwan Barghouti going to be part of that prisoner release? Because I know that had been a point of contention.
Ryan Grim
No, I, I don't, I have not seen whether, you know, the word is that, you know, Palestinians are pushing very hard for him and the Israelis are resisting very hard. As I understand it, he's currently not in Marwan Barghouti, interestingly is. No, he's Fatah, which is the rival of Hamas yet. Yet Hamas. Yet he is Hamas's number one priority because he is the basically the only figure capable of really unifying Palestinians into a national coalition, which is Precisely why the Israelis don't want him released. So it does not. So our understanding at this point is that no, that he will not be, he will not be released.
Krystal Ball
And Ryan, just in the next like 48 hours, let alone weeks and months into the future, are there some tripwires that are like particularly obvious from the 20 point deal or are there places where this is like very, very fragile going forward?
Ryan Grim
Well, the circumstances of the exchange, right. The condition of the captives when, when they're in exchanged will certainly inflame tensions. There's been a siege on. Yet when Israelis have seen previous captives released, they've said how, you know, how, how dare you, how could you treat the, the hostages this way? And Palestinians look around at that. They're like, this is what we look like too. Like what are you, what are you talking about? So, but that, that, so that could, that could inflame the situation. You know, I just geopolitically curious for your guys take. It just feels very difficult for Israel to restart this war. I know there's gonna. Netanyahu will be under a lot of pressure from his right flank to do it. He himself has very clearly said that he wants to continue this war. But I can't think of a faster way to flush what remaining credibility the US and Israel have down the toilet then to get the, to get what you said you wanted and then immediately restart it. So I don't know, we'll see. So Hamas is taking a gamble, but it's, it's basically their only option. And, and it's a huge relief for Palestinians in Gaza. It'll be cause for immense celebration to finally open up the crossings because there's five or six crossings are going to open up. And explicitly as part of the deal, they're going to surge in humanitarian aid, which is another admission that they were withholding humanitarian aid for military purposes, which is a war crime. But we knew that. But it will be very beneficial. It'll be life changing for people who are on the brink of starvation, life.
Saagar Enjeti
Preserving for people who were on the brink of starvation and being bombed and slaughtered on a routine basis. Also interesting that GHF apparently is done moving forward. I know you guys have been reporting previously that Israel was really trying to keep GHF in place. So that seems, you know, quite significant. GHF of course was the site of those routine or outside of their sites was the, where there were these routine aid massacres committed by IDF troops, where we had doctors saying, you know, every time there's a ghf, a Distribution. We have mass casualty events show up at, at our hospitals. So of course, very noteworthy that that's going to be gone. The other worthy thing and Griffin, I don't know if you can pull this up or a news article to this effect, but they're talking about an international force on the ground to police the ceasefire deal. And as part of that, the US will be sending some 200 troops to Israel. So American boots on the ground here to make sure that our ally upholds their end of the ceasefire deal. At least that's the idea here.
Krystal Ball
The point that Ryan and, and Jeremy have made in the reporting at dropsite that I find very interesting is how the pressures applied to the Arab world in Egypt were really consequential. The appli. I'm sorry, the pressures applied by the Arab world to the Israelis in Egypt. I'm sorry, one of those warnings to the Palestinians in Egypt were utterly consequential. And what's interesting to me about that, Ryan, is you guys have mentioned that for Palestinians, it was important that Trump sort of put his own credibility into the negotiation by being the head of the board, the committee that's supposed to oversee the peace process and the plan in Gaza. And I guess this, this question about troops or how it's, you know, how, how these tripwires or how Netanyahu could violate the terms of the peace plan. At this point, I was wondering if you had any more thoughts on how, like, Kushner and Witkoff and Trump himself have, like, put themselves on the line. Does that make it, does that make any sort of betrayal from Netanyahu even riskier from his perspective? Like, what could go wrong there?
Ryan Grim
Yeah, the Palestinians, like, major insistence was that any deal be personally guaranteed by Donald Trump. They wanted him to put his name on it and announce it publicly. And from, from an outside perspective, a lot of people are like, what are you talking about? You trust Donald Trump. He's, that's like, that's not exactly the guy that you would, you know, really want to ride or die with that you're on his word. But from their perspective, he's it like, he's the guy like, there's nobody else in the world who is capable of restraining Israel. But, but he is.
Saagar Enjeti
True.
Ryan Grim
So, and which actually goes to this thing where everybody thinks that Israel controls, like, the American government. It's not. They have enormous amount of influence. The United States is more powerful. If the United States actually exerts itself as it has in the past in almost, in ending almost every other war that Israel was Involved in, like, that's how those wars end. An American president calls up, whether it's Reagan or Biden or Obama or Trump and says, it's, that's it, you're done. I'm yanking the leash. Your Runway's over. Whatever phrase they use, you're like, it's done. And so they were, I think, waiting for Trump to do that or Biden to do it. And so Hamas is saying, you, you've got that. This is all we have. We absolutely do not trust Netanyahu. And so if you put your credibility on the line, that's at least something. And they didn't really want, like, that he created a board of peace that was going to have him and Tony Blair on it because that meant there'd be no sovereignty in the redevelopment for Gaza. But the fact that he was putting a stamp on it was, I think that was kind of Trump's expression of that, of that desire. And Trump, you know, he announced it publicly, he spoke about it publicly, he's taking full credit for it. That is what they wanted because so now Trump is on the line. What that's worth, we'll find out.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
Crystal Ball
I got a question for you, Ryan. Go for it.
Ryan Grim
Crystal.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, it's. I was just going to say, I mean, to your point, it's not about Trump being a trustworthy character. It's about the reality of the situation, the power dynamics, the fact that he's, he is literally the only person in the world that can actually tell Israel and enforce Israel stopping the genocide. So you have no choice but to hope that he follows through on the deal. And, you know, Jeremy laid out like there's some, I mean, it's disgusting, right. But that there's some sort of, like, business dollars and cents logic for it. I think he, you know, Gaza lago is still the goal in the dream.
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
You know, we should probably play Candace Owens talking about how disgusting that is because she hit the nail on the head with it. But that is effectively what they're relying on. And not just in terms of Gaza lago, but also, you know, he has all these desires and business development deals in the, with the Gulf Arab states in particular. And so he doesn't want to piss them off. Now, I don't know if that's realistic. They're so compliant and so like, focused on the money too, that they, you know, they don't actually care about the Palestinians. The, all the pressure comes from below with regard to them. So I don't know how, you know, how much screwing up this deal would really hinder his business ambitions in the region, but perhaps there's a perception there.
Ryan Grim
Well, I think that's where the strike in Doha actually played an interesting role, because I think that the Emiratis and the Saudis and Qataris all called up Kushner and Trump and were like, hey, hey, guys, like, all your money's over here. They're bombing your money now. And Trump's like, oh, yeah, they kind of are bombing my money. We can't have that because you don't know how this spirals. And also their economies, such that you can even call them economies, are. Are built on this, you know, international, you know, business. These international business relationships, which are based on the idea that they are not Syria, they're not Iraq, like that. It's a perfectly safe place. So to have, you know, smoke plumes rising from their downtown right next to, like, the Chinese Embassy is not good for business.
Saagar Enjeti
Down the street from the school that Sager went to, the American school that is backstage. Yes, Griffin, go ahead.
Krystal Ball
No House Sagar.
Crystal Ball
So, Ryan, for people who haven't been paying attention to all the ins and outs of this deal, where does this leave Hamas in terms of leadership or in terms of being in charge of Gaza? Because I have a clip here I want to play for you to react to from an Israeli ambassador that seems to suggest something slightly different than the deal that was just signed. Why don't we take a listen?
Ryan Grim
You mentioned earlier, you see this deal as leading toward the destruction of Hamas. Tell me more about that. Because Hamas has not agreed to disarm. They've not agreed to leave Gaza, as Israel has insisted in the past. The agreement, the 20 point plan, is very clear on the disarming of Hamas. And it's also very clear that if they do not disarm that we're going to go back into military confrontation. They have to disarm. Hamas cannot remain standing in Gaza. That's the. That's the plan, and that's what has to be implemented. This plan is basically ensconced with the government's directives for completing this war, and that's the disarming of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza. If that doesn't happen, then this peace plan is not going anywhere.
Crystal Ball
So the peace plan is not going anywhere unless Hamas demilitarizes de arms. Now, is that part of the deal? Ryan, break that down for us.
Ryan Grim
It was part of the 20 point plan. It was. But Hamas did not accept the 20 point plan. Hamas accepted the first part of it. And then said that they looked forward to discussing, you know, what a future, you know, Palestinian run, technocratic administration would look like. And, and they have said we will relinquish power to a pal, you know, technocratic committee of made up of Palestinian experts. But they have basically said they wouldn't disarm until there's a state in place and then they would disarm as part of that evolution into statehood. So, yeah, this remains the thing that is outstanding. So if Israel believes that it's going to have the ability geopolitically and to cover from the United States to get the hostages back and then go in and saying that they're doing it because they need to disarm Hamas, which again, a lot of their weapons are unexploded ordinance and it'll take 20 years to get all the unexploded ordinance out of there. So I don't quite see how they physically, literally can disarm if those are the weapons we're talking about. So. Yeah, but that's where the, to Emily's point about the tripwires, like, that's, that's a pretty big, that's a pretty big gulf, you know, will Trump sign off on restarting the war for that aim with no hostages left? Well, I guess we're going to find out.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, indeed. I just out of curiosity, because I, I noticed that guy that we were just listening to, the Israeli ambassador to the US Seemed to have American accent. He is indeed from Scranton, Pennsylvania. And not only that, according to Haaretz, was affiliated with that Rabbi Kahane who was, is, you know, was this incredible extremist who thought that any non Jewish, any non Jewish person in Israel should either be deported or serve as a slave. So, you know, just to give you a sense of the type of characters that are in this government and what, what their ideology are. Yeah, he's, you know, moderate compared to some who are in the coalition. Ultimately, I guess he thinks they should just be deported, not actively murdered.
Crystal Ball
So, and, and Ryan, after you're reporting this week in drop site about a certain ghostwriter for an Israeli ambassador. Is this, is this one of the ambassadors that's getting some ghostwriting done by our friend Douglas Murray?
Ryan Grim
We don't have any evidence of that. The, the guy whose speeches they were writing is now the Israeli ambassador to Germany actually, which is a pretty, pretty plum posting. Yeah.
Crystal Ball
Well, Crystal also flagged this that, you know, we've gone through two years of, of this Israeli Gaza genocide, but there's been some reveals about some of the 3D modeling that's been occurring over these last two years. Of course, everyone remembers the famous 3D rendering of the Al Shifa hospital. Was that the one that they did the breakdown of? And so I wanted to put this up on screen for a second. Some of these elements here. So it looks like, I mean, crystal, can you explain what we're seeing here?
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. So basically the idea is that they did this analysis and tracked a bunch of these images that they used to claim, you know, whether it was tunnel systems or to show their targeting, etc. They tracked it back to this, this one guy and, you know, elements reused very. It looks very video game, but basically just exposing the level of fabricated propaganda that was going on here. And in the specific case of the Al Shifa hospital, I'm sure you guys remember this was early in the genocide when they still felt the need to justify their attacks on hospitals. And we're subjected to this, you know, 3D modeling of this elaborate lair that was supposedly under the hospital where Hamas's headquarters was located, et cetera. Came in for a lot of mockery at the time. Well, turns out they had actually recycled some previous propaganda of an alleged Hamas tunnel underneath of a UN school. They just pulled that and repurposed it to be like, no, actually the Hamas layer is under the hospital now. So I just. Even for us, people who have been very skeptical, to say the least, of Israeli government claims, and you know, very attuned to the amount of hasbara and the amount of, you know, money that's spent to pay, to pay influencers and all of that that's been reveale. I think even to me, it is stunning the amount and the scope and the brazenness of the lies and the propaganda that we have been fed, not just over these two years, but long before that, by the way.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, really impressive reporting here.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely. Yeah.
Krystal Ball
One point that the person who broke this down made is that it's intentionally done to amplify media coverage because the, the strategy is to say if you give the media a visual, it will end up more likely covered on the news because they have something they can.
Saagar Enjeti
Visually show people they can pull an element. Yeah, right.
Krystal Ball
They can pull an element. They can D4.
Ryan Grim
But yes, they're right.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's. But like the. The person who reported this out had examples of that having worked pretty, pretty effectively.
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Saagar Enjeti
Ugh. Come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
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Saagar Enjeti
Whoa, this thing moves.
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Crystal Ball
So you know, Trump is celebrating. He's excited for his Nobel Peace Prize. But then, plot twist. Someone else got the Nobel this morning. Ryan, can you explain who this person is that brought all this piece together? For those just listening on the podcast, I'm throwing up an Image here. The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize when awarded to Maria Carino Machado for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, her. Her efforts to bring democracy to Venezuela involved being a leader of the 2002 coup and then signing a decree to dissolve, basically the Constitution. That coup was short lived and Chavez came back to power. And you know, since then, you know, she's been in, she's been an opposition leader. She was banned from, from running for president because of her involvement in this, in this coup and in other irregularities in the way that. And, and, and basically being allied with the United States and trying to overthrow the Venezuelan government. She, you know, celebrated you know, Trump's coup attempts in his first term. She has celebrated his bombing of the, of all the narco. The narco boats or the fishing boats, whatever they are. She has urged the sanctions that have, you know, crushed Venezuela. She has even asked Benjamin Netanyahu to please come liberate Venezuela. Netanyahu has not taken them up on that request yet, but that's, that's who she is. So just kind of an incredible decision by the Nobel Peace Prize Committee. It's like, I guess the Gaza Humanitarian foundation wasn't available because they were ousted as part of this ceasefire deal.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I will, I will say I don't. I forget why I had occasion to do this. I went through the election certifications for the last, the. When Machado was on the ballot the last time. I imagine one of the reasons she got this, because there's a pretty decent case that she actually won. It's very, very hard to know because of all the irregularities, but I think there's a pretty.
Ryan Grim
Well, they kicked her off the ballot.
Krystal Ball
Her proxy.
Ryan Grim
But her, her party. Her proxy. Yes, it, yes, it does. It does appear like that, like Maduro rigged that election and, and the reason we're stopping the steel. Yeah. And the re. Interestingly, the reason that we, that Emily can look into it and be pretty confident that, that he did rig it is that Chavez himself put in place this. These kind of very transparent systems that everybody can check. So you can, you can check it at the local and the regional level and, and match it against what's being said nationally. And because of those Chavez reforms, you can actually see like, oh, yeah, it does look like the opposition party was. Probably did win this election and, and, and, and Maduro stole it.
Krystal Ball
Right. Or like they're not even cooperating with those systems and it's like. Oh, that's interesting.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, they just. Yeah, they. Yes. So maybe that's. But, but they also did.
Krystal Ball
They were able to track. Because of the system, actually. Yeah, Ryan, that's exactly. Like, because of that system, they're able to see what the tallies were in certain areas and all of that. And like, oh, looks like he probably lost.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. Yes. And so he's.
Krystal Ball
But the Nobel Peace Prize, I mean, I don't think any of us take it particularly seriously. I just reported out a. Who. It's like, maybe not worth dwelling too long on, but Trump is, like, so desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize and at the same time, so obviously aware he's not going to get a Nobel Peace Prize.
Ryan Grim
I don't know. I feel like giving it to her is a signal from the committee that they're open to giving it to Trump. Because this is like, if you're going to give it to a American president's coup plotter, like, why wouldn't you give it to the American president, too?
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, yeah, yeah. He can definitely, can definitely claim a piece of that prize, even if he didn't get the whole thing this time.
Ryan Grim
That's true.
Krystal Ball
Well, I was, I was talking to, like, Nobel historians who were like, they just see it because this is Norwegian. Like, they see it as so uncouth for anybody to campaign for themselves to get the Nobel Peace Prize. So it's not even like the, the people I talked to is like, it wouldn't even be ideological. It's just this idea that, like, he's out there begging for it, and people are like, well, that is.
Saagar Enjeti
Wasn't this part of. You guys. Gotta refresh my memory. Wasn't this part of why Bill Gates maintained his relationship with Epstein because Epstein was telling him, like, he could get him the Nobel Prize? Wasn't that part of.
Crystal Ball
Oh, my God, Really?
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean, I mean, it sounds right.
Ryan Grim
And reading through Epstein's emails and such, it wouldn't be hard to believe that he would have that kind of pull, but he knew everybody and he was able to make things happen.
Crystal Ball
We're going to start our own peace award. That's going to start to be a competitor with a new list of candidates who deserves a peace award right now?
Ryan Grim
Ryan? I mean, I would think, like, doctors in Gaza, like doctors and nurses in Gaza, like the ABS or the civil defense, like the people who, knowing that there's going to be a double tap strike, still rush to the building to pull people out of it like that. Those. Those are the. That's the best of humanity under the worst conditions, selflessly putting your. Your body on the, on the line to help others that you don't know. You know that. That should be what the Nobel Peace Prize is for.
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Crystal Ball
Well, do you want to move to Chicago?
Krystal Ball
Well, I was gonna say, Crystal, I think your. It sounds like your memory is correct. That is. That's actually what happened.
Saagar Enjeti
I thought so. Yeah. Yeah. And I. Talking about that one wild.
Ryan Grim
All right.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, every aspect of that is wild.
Crystal Ball
Moving on to Chicago, Kristi Noem is doubling down and looking to get more office space here in Chicago. Let's take a listen.
Saagar Enjeti
Word is we're purchasing more buildings in Chicago to operate out of. We're going to not back off. In fact, we're doubling down and we're going to be in more parts of Chicago in response to the people there. And then I was there a few days ago and looked at some facilities that we can deploy more law enforcement out of because what they're trying to do with these riots and violence is distract us and keep us from going after those murderers and rapists that are out on the streets. And. And then I was in Portland, went out and back on.
Crystal Ball
All right, so more offices. We also do have a video here outside an elementary school that I wanted to play just at the top. This was from a recent ICE raid on an elementary school where they grabbed the mother out of the car as she's picking up her child.
Saagar Enjeti
And just so people know as they're watching this, at least according to the reporting I saw, this woman that you'll see here is a DACA recipient and they actually had to release her. So after she's there picking up to pick up her kids from elementary school, something a lineup many of us will be familiar with. And they follow her, they forcibly pull her out of the car. She's screaming again right outside of this elementary school where her children and other children are. And according to what I saw, like I said, she had legal status, so they ended up having to release her. So all of this, you know, show of force with these dudes, most of them again, masked up etc and terrorizing an entire elementary school population for someone who in, in the end turns out has legal status. And, and by the way, is a mom, like, this is not some violent criminal gang member, Trenderagua, whatever. This is like a mom who's going about her life trying to pick up her kids from school. And I don't know what happened to those, you know, those kids when they're waiting for mom and mom's just been snatched off the street by Trump's thugs.
Krystal Ball
I think an important point in that, Crystal, is they purport to be targeting people with some measure of intelligence. And we've already seen that there's a surveillance apparatus being built in order to target people. And this is a just staggering, not shocking, but staggering display of incompetence. When you are building these, you are, you're paying all of this money, taxpayer dollars to surveil and you're picking up a daca, someone who is here with, with legal status. And doing it like this is just. I know we're going to talk about this later, but they are, they're squandering any squandering, certainly any, like, public opinion that was in their favor for sure at this point.
Ryan Grim
And immigration officials, immigration attorneys that I've spoken to have said that this, this phenomenon of DACA people getting, getting swept up is, is fairly widespread and oftentimes they don't get out very quickly. The, the administrator, the administration is reinterpreting all because immigration law is, like, extraordinarily complicated and based on, you know, decades of stitched together precedents. And you can be in deportation proceedings but still have legal status. And then the administration will say, well, we reject this legal status. And it all goes back to these quotas that Stephen Miller has put into place. So they are basically just sweeping up as many brown people as they can and then asking questions later and seeing who they can kind of make the deportation stick and also who they can persuade to kind of give up the fight. Because you put them, you know, you put them in these, like, deplorable conditions and you can end your suffering at any minute by saying, okay, fine, I will go back to El Salvador. Even though you have a, you know, legal status and you can stay here, but it could take you weeks or months or even years. They don't know. So a lot of people just give up in the face of that, that raw power.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And I think, I mean, so I, I kind of reject the idea that it's incompetence because I, like, I think this is all part of the, the plan of, I mean, it, it genuinely is like a mass terror campaign to scare people into either leaving or to chill descent. I mean, we have increasing numbers of American citizens who have been either injured or illegally detained, arrested by ice, held without the ability to make phone calls for hours, if not days at a time. Of course we saw the apartment raid. It doesn't surprise me that Kristi Naum is saying we're going to double down on Chicago. Because in my view, what they're also courting is some grand confrontation that they can use in order to justify Trump invoking the Insurrection Act. And there's reporting to that regard.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I think that's true.
Saagar Enjeti
They've gotten, and they've gotten more. You know, the community in Chicago is very upset. And so you have a lot of activists who are, you know, following ICE around and honking horns to let immigrants know that they're coming. You know, the, the atmosphere Appears I'm not there on the ground, but appears to be somewhat charged. And so I think that they believe that Chicago is their best bet with a Democratic mayor and a Democratic governor who may be a presidential contender to get this grand confrontation that they want to just further consolidation of their power. And as I said, in invocation of the Insurrection act, which would mean that they could deploy National Guard much more readily and that the National Guard that's deployed would not be subject to the limitations that they currently are. Namely, you know, in D.C. we saw national Guard was mostly like kind of assisting ICE to the extent that they're, you know, sort of even colorably able to, but also just like standing around and picking up trash. If you have the Insurrection act, then you no longer have those same restrictions on what the National Guard can do. So I think that's, you know, part of what's, of what's going on here. I, I covered and I just think it's worth emphasizing you've already had people. You had one person who was shot and killed, an immigrant who was shot and killed by federal agents in or around Chicago, and you had this other woman that I covered on the show who they claimed had rammed them with her car and then brandish a semi automatic weapon. At least the semiautomatic weapon part of that has already turned out to be just a complete and utter fabrication. They sh her five times. Okay, American citizen, immigration activist, but American citizen. She, her lawyer now says that their body camera footage reveals they actually ran into her. The agent in question who shot her five times said do something and then jumped out of the car with his weapon and began firing. So we already, already we have incidents like this and this is still very much in the early phases. One thing that is noteworthy and somewhat hopeful if, I mean, if it's enforced, if it's not overturned on appeal, etc. There have been some significant limits put on the federal government in Chicago, specifically some court rulings that have come down. We just got one where they're saying, no, you can't, at least temporarily, for now, it's a temporary restraining order. You cannot send the Texas national guard. Meal Team 6 is not allowed to come into Chicago. They said, you know, basically like it's ridiculous, there's no insurrection. And the judge in their ruling said it it on the cont like it's the exact opposite of what you're saying. Not only is there not chaos and insurrection sufficient to justify this, but you are the ones trying to stoke the chaos, which I think many reasonable people looking at the situation would agree with, especially after we know that in Portland, the government's, the federal government's own internal assessment said that those protests were, quote, unquote, low energy before Trump came in and said, oh, war ravaged Portland, and we got to send it in the National Guard and we got to do all of this. There was also another decision that may lead to the release of hundreds of the immigrants that they've detained that says they're in violation. The federal government is in violation of a consent decree with regard to how they pick up these immigrants and the way that they're using widespread warrantless arrests of immigrants, which is illegal. And then you had also a decision that came down that was related to their indiscriminate use of chemical weapons. We all saw the priest who got shot in the head with a pepper ball, or pastor or, you know, religious figure. I'm not sure what his exact designation was. And we've also seen reports about them pepper spraying. They pepper sprayed the freaking Chicago Police Department. They pepper sprayed outside of an elementary school so the kids couldn't go outside for recess. You know, we've seen activists, journalists, anyone who's just there, like, recording, getting sprayed directly in the face. And so there was also a decision that came down that was like, you can't do that. You can't just spray, you know, journalists and activists. You're violating their First Amendment rights by using these riot control weapons in such a widespread and careless manner.
Krystal Ball
Well, and I just want to say the. Because I don't disagree that what you just laid out, there's a broader effort to chill the, like, the. Any migrants who may be here to encourage what they call, like, self deportation. Like, I don't, I don't disagree with that. The incompetence, to me, reminds me a lot of the reason I invoked that description is because it reminds me of what happened with Mahmoud Khalil and Ramessa Ozturk, where they're relying on, like, what Canary Mission. And they get these, like, lists of people who are apparently support. Giving material support to terrorists. And then just to. In Chicago, it may be literal, but metaphorically shoot first, ask questions later. And I do think that's strategic. I think they're. They're sort of like that. That's their strategy. I just think that strategy is, like, politically morally ridiculous. And so that's the, where the incompetence came. Like, that's where I was using that description. Because it's like, I'm saying this as a conservative. Again, I know we're going to talk about this, but like I'm, I'm watching all of this happen and I'm like, they think they have this mandate. They think they have the wind at their back, all of this political capital. And they don't because what they're doing is absurd. And so it's just like, it's so stupid all around.
Crystal Ball
I think that leads nicely to this next clip where it seems like, yeah, most people are kind of aware of what the government is trying to do with all this. Let's take a listen to our favorite. I guess he's a priest now. Did he convert? Y' all seeing.
Saagar Enjeti
I was wondering what is going on with that, too.
Crystal Ball
Yeah, this is he doing a Russell Brand moment here. We'll have to see. We'll have to look into that later. But let's take a listen to Rogan here on these faucets.
Joe Rogan
Let's just talk about the, the immigration thing. The way it looks is horrific when you're just arresting people in front of their kids and just normal, regular people that have been here for 20 years, that everybody who has a heart can't get along with that. No, everybody who has a heart sees that and go, that can't be right. They can't be right. That can't be the only way to do this.
Crystal Ball
Right.
Joe Rogan
Because you have to think, look, yeah, we have to have a border. Yes, it should have been secure. Yes, they should make sure you know who everybody is before they get in.
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
Joe Rogan
But when people been here for 20 years, like, come on, come on. That's crazy. Like, yeah, let's find a way. If they've been productive members of society for 20 years, no criminal record, they work the entire time. They paid taxes. Find them a pathway to citizenship. Find a way where you can do this thing that you want to do, which is keep terrorists and cartel members from getting across the border with drugs that kill a hundred thousand people a year. Okay. But also have a heart because if you don't, you're not going to get anybody on your side if you're doing this stuff publicly. Throwing women to the ground, handcuffing people just for existing on the wrong side of the dirt.
Crystal Ball
Yeah.
Joe Rogan
Not a criminal. Not. The only crime they ever committed was coming over here as a kid.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Joe Rogan
They probably didn't even know what the was going on.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Crystal Ball
Yeah.
Joe Rogan
You know, a lot of kids got snuck across when they were already born in Mexico and they've grown up their entire life in America. They can't even speak Spanish.
Krystal Ball
Well. I mean, Part of that is rich dude wants to pass the citizenship for millions and millions of people. But I will set that aside and say he is. That is a perception that most average normie Americans are going to have and they're not wrong to have that perception either. And Zach Brian, I think we have this. Who he's been on Rogan, I think he's like just again, normie veteran, super popular with young like white dudes. I like Zach Brian, I think he's pretty good. And he has this new snippet of a song. He previewed one of his new songs and it's about like ice banging down your door. And John Rich from Big and Rich called for him to be Dixie Chicks and said like Bud Light should sponsor his tour or something like that. It's just like again, there's, there's always this.
Saagar Enjeti
I saw someone say, you know, what a shock that liberals are getting beer, country music and football in the national divorce.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's so funny. But this is the thing. There's the right was always criticizing the left for being in bubbles and I think we all know that that's true. But now the right has the reins of power and the, they're putting themselves, they're ensconcing themselves in this thick bubble now too by saying anybody who disagrees with us is a lib. Anybody who disagrees with us is basically like pro Kamala. And that just means you tune out all of the like just well intentioned feedback that you're getting when people see clips like the one that we just played on the show. And you have influencers following Kristi Noem around acting like this is some generational political genius. Like this, this entire master plan is some generational political historic stroke of genius. And they're just isolating themselves from like normie people who are looking at this and being like, this is not. Of course there are some people who say this is exactly what I voted for. But that's definitely not most of the country. And so they're, they're isolated, I think, from all of that.
Crystal Ball
Let me read this lyric for a sec from Zach Bryan, one of the biggest musicians on the planet. It says his lyric is, I heard the cops came cocky MF's ain't they ice is gonna come bust down your door try and build a house no one builds no more But I got a telephone. Kids are all scared and all alone. Then a response from the dhs. Stick to pink skies, dude, says Department of Homeland Security assistant secretary Trisha McLaughlin in a response.
Saagar Enjeti
So, yeah, I hate these people so much.
Ryan Grim
It does, it does feel like they're pushing it too far. Like. Yeah, well.
Saagar Enjeti
And Ryan, I want to ask you that, I actually want to ask both of you guys this, all three of you this because Sagar and I have been like having a little bit of a debate about whether they think this is, they genuinely believe this is politically advantageous for them or whether they don't care because they're not that interested in whether they're going to have to face voters and they don't think it's going to be that consequential whether they have to face voters. I did note Dominion Voting got sold to some like Republican Stop the steal apparatchik. So that's a little ominous. Gotta look into that more to find out what that means. But I mean that is my, that is my concern is that as much as they are in a bubble and I think they are in a bubble that they, it's not, they're not doing these things because they think they're popular. They're doing it because they want a one party state. They're doing it because they're really going for it and trying to consolidate power so that future elections are more or less meaningless. Now Sagar disagrees with that. He thinks they genuinely believe that this is like based and popular and that this is a good political trajectory for them. So I'm, I'm curious what you guys, you know, what you guys thoughts are on that.
Krystal Ball
I'll just say super quickly. I agree with Sagar. Like we obviously know some of the players in this personally and they do My, my take on this is like pretty firmly they genuinely think that this is popular. Now there may be some people in the mix like Stephen Miller, who I don't really know personally who maybe they, it's a combination of both. Like they think it's super popular and based and they also don't care if it's not. But a lot of them like genuinely think that this is the will of the American people and that normal people see these videos and are like, hey, had to happen at some point. Too bad.
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Saagar Enjeti
Ugh. Come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
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Ryan Grim
Yeah, my my take. I'm curious if this accords with what Emily thinks. That Stephen Miller is a hardcore ideologue. Like he has a worldview, he has the power, he has the time in power and he's going to execute it. And he's, he's also like a disturbingly young guy. Like he's going to be around for, for a very, very long time and, and who knows if he ends up staffing like every coming Republican administration, but that he thinks that he can basically create new realities by reshaping the country and that old ideas about, you know, how this particular issue polls week to week are will be out the window because he's so thoroughly revolutionizing what's happening inside the United States and it's driven by this like end, end goal ideology that is as extreme as being.
Saagar Enjeti
What is that end goal ideology? What are the realities that he thinks he's changing?
Ryan Grim
Well, as Trump, as Trump said it, he said if Stephen Miller had his way, there'd be a hundred million people in this country, and they'd all look like Stephen Miller. Like, that's. That's what Donald Trump said about Stephen Miller.
Crystal Ball
This 100 million number has been coming up a lot in memes lately. The Department of Homeland Security has been doing these, like, fan cams where they're like, these edits where it's like, America if there was only 100 million people in it. And it's. And it's just all white people frolicking around. They, like, use old, like, 90s TV. Yeah, they use, like, old 90s TV shows where the cast is all white and stuff. It's like, oh, like every show will be like Friends again. Or it's just white people. I don't know.
Krystal Ball
That.
Crystal Ball
That. That's. This 100 million number is starting to really come up.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, I mean.
Krystal Ball
They started in 2024. I'm sorry. When they came into office in 2025, the Biden administration had just brought in what, like, 8 to 10 million people in the period of three years who had precarious legal situations. Some of them. And this is like the healthcare debate with the shutdown, Some of them are perfectly here legally because Biden expanded the pathways. And that's true of many, many people. Some of them are here illegally without documentation. And so they did have this, like, big. And most of the country wanted some solution to this precarity, mass precari among all of these migrants. They wanted the border closed. The Trump administration has basically closed the border, but they took that and have now said it's, like, permission to expand this police state and to militarize the operation in what, like, Elgin, Illinois, as I think we talked about last week, a suburb of Chicago. And these are very, very different things, not just politically, but also morally. And the idea that they have permission to, like, do helicopter immigration enforcement, again, politically and morally in Elgin, it's just, I mean, like. And to detain American citizens. All these are. These are very, very different things. And they don't seem to. I think they genuinely are not aware of that because they've put themselves in this, like, trench mentality where it's like, you're with us or you're against us completely, and you're with the trend Aragua cartel. It's just. Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Anyway, well, and I think Ryan's point is important one, because there may be people in the Trump administration that think this is politically beneficial. And then. But the person who really matters the most, I would say, at this point is actually Stephen Miller, because he certainly seems to be running the show. And so, you know, my sense is the same as Ryan's that and I don't think anyone would disagree, this is a die hard ideologue who does not believe in America as a diverse society. He doesn't believe in the idea of a melting pot. He believes in a white ethno, a blood and soil white ethno state. And he wants to make it so that the people he doesn't count as American don't get to have a say in the future of the country. So whether that's, you know, through, you know, the, the terror campaign that, you know, both effectuates deportations but also effectuates a mass exit of people who no longer feel comfortable in this country. Because remember we now have the Supreme Court says, hey, you can do Kavanaugh stops. You're allowed to just harass people because they're brown and at a car wash or whatever. So that plus and Griffin, maybe you can pull this about the, the latest, you know, reporting on NSPM 7 and the way they're going after Act Blue and you know, anything linked to George Soros whatsoever indivisible and pretending these are part of some like antifa terror network and targeting them through the FBI, through the irs, through the whole of government. So his idea is basically the people who oppose me and the, you know, black and brown people that I don't consider to be quote, unquote, real Americans, we're gonna make it so they don't really have a say, so they don't really count in the future. And you know, all of these escalatory steps which are intentionally provocative, which every time you see these raids, they got camera guys falling behind so they can publish them, so they can further inflame and advertise their, you know, fascist tactics so that every time they do that, they are courting this broader confrontation that will allow them to grab even more power. And I just don't think it's deniable at this point that that's the plan because they're already well along the plan. I mean they practically announce it out loud. So that's what we're in the midst of. And what I struggle with is, is, is articulating both the, the grave seriousness of that where he truly, you know, we are already in a different country than we were before Trump 2.0 came into office. Like we'd been sliding in this direction. But now we are in a different country than we were previously. That is a very grave situation. And then also a bunch of these people are like utterly clownish buffoons. You know, the National Guard Meal Team six is like a perfect example of this. Or you know, RFK up there like oh, you know, circumcision and Tylenol and autism, whatever. So it's, it can be hard to wrap your head around people who are idiots and clowns, but who also are ideologues and are, are very effectively implementing an extreme and radical plan to turn this country into something that it was not previously.
Crystal Ball
Yes, there's been a lot of crackdowns. Trump actually name checked DSA as one of the groups that he is going to be looking to as well. And yeah, it does seem like they are trying to define what antifa means and who antifa is still. Which I think leads us perfectly to our final segment. We wanted to get on the public half here.
Krystal Ball
We should, I was gonna say we should get some like, like Julio or Andy. No, to come on and debate antifa when it, we'll, we'll, we'll set something like that up.
Crystal Ball
Let's get it. That sounds like an after party booking. I love it. Let's do it. Let's get, let's get them on here. All right, well, I think this leads us perfectly to our last segment. Really important here about Jesse Waters and antifa. Yes, cr. So I'm going to pull this up if you can break it down. We have.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
Krystal Ball
Do we have the guests?
Saagar Enjeti
So he's, he's accused Jesse Waters of. He, he likes to use these masked guests. And so we had one here. The most recent is like some antifa guy, that's the one on top who looks remarkably similar to a previous masked guest who he had who was supposedly like a Mexican cartel member, something like that.
Crystal Ball
We've got ex gang members.
Krystal Ball
They're all just.
Saagar Enjeti
Ryan looks remarkably similar to this guy on the bottom who, I don't know, was this guy supposed to be like Hamas or something like that?
Krystal Ball
You know, it's like it's always sunny. The Gango's jihad. That's what this looks like.
Saagar Enjeti
That bottom one. It looks like almost like a filter. Not even like real things. Anyway, people are noticing that this character appears to be the same character. If you listen to them, they sound similar. They have the same mannerism. People are speculating that it might be this, you know, this Robert o' Neill guy. I don't know if that's true. They actually denied it. They, Fox News did deny that it was Robert o'. Neill.
Crystal Ball
Nevertheless, we're not claiming that either on the show.
Krystal Ball
It doesn't look like him. Yeah, but.
Crystal Ball
Yeah, no, we're not claiming that.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, I really. I do think it looks like him.
Crystal Ball
Crystal, Crystal, we're not claiming it. We don't know. We. This is all, as far as we know, on the record. These are all different guys. Let's take a quick listen to them recruiting, working with youth.
Ryan Grim
Getting, you know.
Joe Rogan
And just going out, spitting out the message. And the thing is too, you know, a lot of people get into it because that. I kind of laughed when I saw two things. I saw that he had allegedly stated that one of his motives or reasons was to support Black Lives matter at.
Ryan Grim
About 9th grade or so.
Joe Rogan
Get on.
Ryan Grim
A few years growing up in Seattle, we had those.
Joe Rogan
The riots in 99.
Crystal Ball
All right, so those are all the different gentlemen that Jesse has had on the show recently.
Ryan Grim
Antifa people really call them riots. Yeah.
Krystal Ball
Don't tell me this doesn't look.
Crystal Ball
Don't tell me that. That looks similar. So, Crystal, we, we.
Saagar Enjeti
I was able. Yeah, I was able to get. I did a little bit of, you know, know of investigative journalism here, guys, and I wanted to talk to someone who's known Jesse for a long time, who could speak to his character and whether or not he would be the sort of person who would, you know, put the same guy on TV three times in three different bandanas and claim he was totally different people and, you know, try to sell this to the public. So I was.
Krystal Ball
You pre taped. You pre taped this and, and Ryan and I have not. We have not seen this. We're.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, you told us about. It works. We're excited.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So. So let's go ahead. Griffin, if you can pull up this interview, I was able to get with Jesse Waters, frat brother, who also happens now, very relevantly, to be the grand dragon of the Antifa Global Jihad Network and also serves as Gavin Newsom's comms director. So a lot that he. A lot that he brings to the table here. Quite a noteworthy gift. Guest Griffin, if you could go ahead and play this. Joining us now, we have Jesse Waters, former frat brother. He now serves as grand dragon for the Antifa Global Jihad Network and also as Gavin Newsom's comms director from an undisclosed location for the purposes of this interview, we'll call you. Let's say Lyle. Welcome to the show, Lyle.
Ryan Grim
Hey, thanks for having me.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, of course. Anything you could tell us about. About Jesse, his character, what he was like when you knew him in college. Yeah, he was.
Ryan Grim
He was a terrible guy.
Crystal Ball
Chronic liar, smelled really bad. He's smug, full of himself. Me and him actually played Division 1 bocce ball together, and the team had a nickname for him. We called him Tadpole because when we saw him in the shower, me and the guys were like, damn, that guy's hung like a tadpole.
Saagar Enjeti
Wow, that's. That's a lot of information. That's, that's maybe more than, than what I was really looking for. But I appreciate that. The disclosure. Anything that stood out to you about him, anything that was, like, odd or weird that he did in college that might inform our understanding of who he is today.
Crystal Ball
Well, I mean, there was that time he cheated on his girlfriend with Bill O'Reilly. That's how he got the spot on Bill O'Reilly show. They used to.
Ryan Grim
They used to rub falafels all over each other.
Joe Rogan
O'Reilly was into that.
Saagar Enjeti
That. I've heard that actually, before. I had heard something about that previously. So that does add up with some of the information that's already publicly on the record. I guess my final question for you, Lyle, is just what do you think of this new scandal that he's embroiled in? He stands accused of having phony people come on the show, pretend to be people that they are not whatsoever. You know, what do you think of the type of person who would do such a thing?
Ryan Grim
I mean, that's, it's.
Crystal Ball
That's disgusting, frankly. I mean, I think it should probably. It should be at least a misdemeanor. It should probably be a felony, if you ask me. I think probably at least 20 years.
Ryan Grim
In prison if you do something like that.
Crystal Ball
I don't know.
Ryan Grim
I don't know.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, Pretty disgusting. Pretty disgusting. I'll agree with that. All right, well, thank you for that information, Lyle, and good, Good luck with the, with the Terror Network. I hope you. Hope you, you know, do well there. Evade the authorities or whatever. You're up to you.
Krystal Ball
Thanks for having me.
Crystal Ball
Okay. I have to say, as the producer, you know, I'm not.
Ryan Grim
That was a very.
Crystal Ball
This. I, I haven't fact checked any of this.
Ryan Grim
Well, that was a very risky interview because there are not many comms people for Gavin Newsom. So I think that our viewers are probably going to be able to narrow down the identity.
Krystal Ball
Do not dox of that do not that guest.
Ryan Grim
Do not not do not dox. Because, you know, this is somebody who took a personal risk to come out and in. In the public interest.
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
Ryan Grim
To reveal what he knows. So, yeah, I would discourage people.
Saagar Enjeti
Share his lived experience.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, it was brave. I told Lyle I Told Lyle how brave it was of him to come forward in that way. I will, I will reach out to you.
Ryan Grim
I noticed that you used a voice distorter. I noticed you used like an AI voice distorter to make him sound like somebody we're all familiar with. That was very clever.
Saagar Enjeti
Just to throw people off. Just to throw people off the scent, you know.
Krystal Ball
But, you know, the broader problem here is that it is important for responsible journalists to vet their sources and to vet the people who are coming on the air to shed some light on these important questions about public affairs. And so that was crystal. I think that was excellent. Maybe Nobel Peace Prize worthy.
Ryan Grim
I think. Nobel Prize, yeah. Next year.
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, I, at least a spent. I spent a lot of time with this individual before the interview. I can tell a lot. Like an extraordinary amount of time with this individual before then.
Ryan Grim
Did you let him run?
Saagar Enjeti
I certainly did my homework. I mean, I, I would. Yeah, absolutely. I would. I would. I trust him on that level. That's how. That's how deep. Would you let him share your streaming equipment?
Krystal Ball
Do you think he would let him share your streaming equipment? Like, would you ever share, like, a microphone?
Crystal Ball
All I have to say is he has beautiful eyes.
Saagar Enjeti
Share my streaming equipment later.
Crystal Ball
He is. He has a striking, beautiful eyes. And I did reach out to Jesse Waters, a request for comment on the Tadpole issue. They responded saying that he is a grower, not a shower. So I think we're. So I just wanted to say we covered all of our bases here, but again, if there are lawsuits, I, I was not involved with the segment.
Krystal Ball
It's a family show.
Crystal Ball
Anyways, thank you to the Grand Dragon, Gavin Newsom. Watch out. You can't be this affiliated with these types of characters.
Ryan Grim
It's true.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Good advice, good advice.
Krystal Ball
Beautiful, beautiful journalism. Well done all around.
Crystal Ball
On that note, after that Pulitzer winning piece of journalism, we're gonna move on to the second half of the show where we'll be doing other, other segments with the grand dragon. So. So breakingpoints.com if you want to see that, if you want to be able.
Ryan Grim
To, if you want to support our.
Crystal Ball
Journalists, if you want to support more interviews like that. BreakingPoints.com we can do that once a week if we want to. Yeah, that guy's available.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, that's right. Ryan's not the only one out here with sources, you know, doing hard legal protection for lies.
Crystal Ball
Okay. And we'll see you all in that second half in just a second.
Saagar Enjeti
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Is an I Heart podcast.
Date: October 10, 2025
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti, Ryan Grim, Crystal Ball
Podcast: Breaking Points (iHeartPodcasts)
This episode dives into a series of urgent and controversial topics: the fragility of the new ceasefire in Gaza; Trump’s surprising centrality in the peace negotiations; scrutiny of Israeli propaganda; Nobel Peace Prize drama; Trump-era immigration policy escalation in Chicago; and closes with a satirical exposé on Fox News host Jesse Watters’ questionably sourced guests. As always, the hosts bring their signature cross-ideological, confrontational-yet-humorous energy, holding both the establishment and media accountable.
[02:16–08:35]
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Tripwires & Fragility:
[08:35–13:55]
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[14:06–16:57]
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[18:10–20:14]
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[23:07–27:46]
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[29:21–38:54]
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Legal and Political Pushback:
[40:10–46:01]
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[46:01–55:20]
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[55:40–end]
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The episode is a punchy, info-rich investigation into why public trust is collapsing—whether in international peace efforts, domestic law enforcement, or media institutions. The hosts blend first-hand reporting, sharp analysis, and gallows humor to illuminate the stakes for American democracy and global stability.
For more coverage and unedited content: breakingpoints.com.