← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
10/1/25: Gov Shuts Down, Portland Invasion, Hegseth Slams Fat Generals. Venezuela Coup & MORE!
02:08:00
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Saagar Enjeti
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Josh Clark
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- [01:34]
Krystal Ball
Hey guys. Sagar and Kristal here.
- [01:36]
Maggie Freeling
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:43]
Krystal Ball
This is the only place where you.
- [01:44]
Saagar Enjeti
Can find honest perspectives from the left.
- [01:46]
Krystal Ball
And the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important.
- [01:50]
Maggie Freeling
To you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access.
- [01:54]
Saagar Enjeti
To our full shows unedited ad free.
- [01:57]
Krystal Ball
And all put together for you every.
- [01:58]
Maggie Freeling
Morning in your inbox.
- [02:00]
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the.
- [02:01]
Krystal Ball
Future of independent news media and we.
- [02:02]
Saagar Enjeti
Hope to see you@breakingpoints.com all right, good morning and welcome to Breaking Points. We have a government shutdown.
- [02:11]
Krystal Ball
That's right. Welcome to the government shutdown.
- [02:13]
Saagar Enjeti
With our colleagues over at the Ditch, this Irish news outlet, we've been tracking US and global weapons shipments to Israel. And so now with the government shut down, those could be in serious jeopardy, right?
- [02:25]
Krystal Ball
I mean, no. Essential. Essential services are in.
- [02:29]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm joking.
- [02:29]
Krystal Ball
Weapons remain.
- [02:30]
Saagar Enjeti
Weapons will continue to flow.
- [02:32]
Krystal Ball
Yes, until morale improves.
- [02:34]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, yes, they will. So midnight 1201, government shut down. So this will be, this is our first one since what, 2018, 2019, when Trump wanted some border wall money back when he wasn't just moving actually, and then he lost that and then just took the money anyway. And since then it's been like, oh, I can just do whatever I want.
- [02:56]
Krystal Ball
That is really the big distinction between other shutdowns in this one. So we'll get to that, break down all of the details. We actually have Democrat Jeff Merkley joining the show to give the Democrats perspective on the shutdown. Then we have Representative Ben Klein of Virginia, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, coming in to give the Republican perspective on the shutdown. So we will have all of our bases covered as we discuss what I think is actually going to be a pretty long haul.
- [03:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I think so too, because. Yes, and we can talk about this more when we get to it. But yeah, I don't think either side really has much incentive to get moving. Over at the Pentagon, Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth spent many millions of dollars flying in a bunch of fat generals, as Pete Hegseth put it, and ordered them to do physical therapy. Fat for now and not be such wimps, be better war fighters. Classic mid level officer, just cranky about everything, just yelling at a bunch of generals. Meanwhile, they're ramping up hostilities with Venezuela, with Iran.
- [04:03]
Krystal Ball
Big New New York Times report on the intentions in Venezuela. And also we had a little bit of movement on the Iran situation yesterday. So we're going to dig into the details of that. Ryan, the flotilla, there's some interesting developments there.
- [04:19]
Saagar Enjeti
The most interesting development is that there were not really major developments overnight. They were expecting to get intercepted. They're at a place about maybe they're at about 80 nautical miles at this point from Gaza, by which point all previous flotillas have been raided. They have not yet been. We're in regular touch with Alex Colson, drop site reporter who's on that flotilla. Will also have updates about the state of the Palestinian response to the Trump Netanyahu offer yesterday.
- [04:50]
Krystal Ball
Excellent. And finally, we will be joined by our new friends at the Grain Markets podcast.
- [04:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Grain markets podcast. Love them.
- [04:57]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, this soybean fight you have to hear about, it's challenging the right in a lot of different ways. The Argentinian bailout is pitting, as Matt Stoller puts it, two of Trump's key constituencies, hedge funds and soybean farmers, against one another. So important fight, obviously for the American, but also for the Politics of what's happening in the conservative movement.
- [05:18]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, indeed.
- [05:19]
Krystal Ball
All right, let's get to the government shutdown. This happened at 12:01. Predictably, the impasse was reached. Any efforts to seriously come to an agreement yesterday, especially after the Monday talks fell apart, those efforts were obviously doomed last night. There's sort of some theater happening, but there's little hope right now, I would say for immediate resolution on the political side. A shutdown. Ryan, we talking about this just as we introduced the show is probably good for the grassroots of both parties and that's probably why we think this is going to be kind of a long haul shutdown.
- [05:58]
Ben Klein
Yeah.
- [05:58]
Saagar Enjeti
So from the Democratic side, they have demanded. So during the pandemic there was an expansion of Obamacare subsidy benefits. So 20 million people who are on the exchanges started seeing their eye popping monthly costs for their premiums in Obamacare go down to something quite reasonable. And that was actually when Ezra Klein and other people were selling Obamacare at the beginning and people like me were saying this is terrible, this sucks, this should be much better. They would say get it in place and then continue to improve it. Because if you have genuinely fully subsidized, almost fully subsidized healthcare through these exchanges and you get fired, you get laid off and you can then move into those exchanges, that's genuinely night and day compared to the barbaric system that we had for most of my life, which was if you got fired and let's say you have cancer like you're sol, like you cannot get new insurance because now you have this pre existing condition and so the insurers don't have to take you and if you can get anything, it's ungodly expensive. Obamacare changed that. Said no, you cannot discriminate against people for having pre existing conditions, but it's going to be kind of expensive. And it's called the Affordable Care act, but it's not really affordable.
- [07:19]
Krystal Ball
The affordable.
- [07:21]
Saagar Enjeti
But then during the pandemic they changed that and made it genuinely affordable. Like we have a relatively humane system in place at this, at this point. Republicans took that out in the big beautiful bill to pay for, you know, more coal subsidies, tax breaks for corporations and the rich. And so that expires at the end of this year. Democrats looked around, decided what do we want to, what do we want to demand in order to go along with this government staying open. And they, and they settled on these health care subsidies. Now Republicans, why do they feel like this is in their interests?
- [08:03]
Krystal Ball
So because this is what Democrats have chosen to focus on health care. And we have, we're going to bring Marjorie Taylor Greene a post from her into this in just one moment. I'm going to read from the Wall Street Journal that summarizes the Republican perspective. They say, quote, Democrats are trying to reverse all health policy changes enacted by the GOP's tax law, including provisions that limited federal funding for immigrant health care. Democrats are seeking more than a trillion altogether in health care funds, including for the ACA subsidies and Medicaid over 10 years. Are unauthorized immigrants eligible for ACA subsidies and Medicaid? The Journal goes on to say migrants in the country illegally aren't eligible to enroll in the ACA Marketplace, which you probably have heard Democrats pointing out in the last few days. They say the GOP's new tax law, the Journal signed by Trump in July, revoked eligibility from, quote, lawfully present immigrants. So that would include refugees and what truly were millions of asylum seekers who came into the country under the Biden administration are backlogged in the system. So that would also include some visa holders. According to the Journal, Democrats proposal would restore their eligibility. So for Republicans, they feel like that's a gift. And it's probably telling Ryan that Republicans latched onto that rather than 10 years ago. The battle of the decade was Obamacare itself.
- [09:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
- [09:21]
Krystal Ball
Republicans aren't even fighting over the Obamacare extension. I mean, fiscal hawks obviously are, but, but they're overwhelmingly focusing on the eligibility for the, quote, lawfully present immigrants.
- [09:33]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. Well, which, which they refer to in their talking points as illegal immigrants, which.
- [09:38]
Krystal Ball
Is actually a distinction with a huge difference. And this has been, I think, a problem with a lot of the Republican arguments on the Biden immigration wave. These are in many cases not people who are in the country illegally. They may be people who entered the country illegally and then claimed asylum, which means that you're allowed to claim asylum. It ends up, you know, you might cross through a wall and then go to cross their wall across the barrier of the border and go to border patrol right away and make this asylum claim. But the problem, and this is a tangent, but it's useful in this case, is that what the Biden administration did was massively expand, from a conservative perspective, massively expand the legal pathways. This was the entire argument. So yes, in many cases, in most cases, as we discuss these subsidies, these are for people who are here legally. You just don't think they should be here legally.
- [10:33]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. Exactly. Yeah. To boil down the right wing argument, correct me if I'm being unfair here, but they would say Democrats would Say, but they're not here illegally. And Republicans say, yeah, but they should be illegal.
- [10:45]
Krystal Ball
Screw em again. Which is a massive distinction because the Biden administration, and this actually in a sort of normal debate setting would be helpful to the Republican argument to. Because the Biden administration didn't go through Congress expanded the pathways through just executive, the executive branch, basically. And that's what their argument was for the four years of the Biden administration. That's what Republicans were saying was wrong. So these are people who are technically here legally in probably almost all cases, if they're taking the insurance here.
- [11:15]
Saagar Enjeti
And I would love to hear Trump try to say that somebody disrespected Congress hasn't been collaborative enough in its governing approach.
- [11:24]
Krystal Ball
Speaking of Congress and speaking of Donald Trump, we have some sound from lawmakers just yesterday. Let's go ahead and roll. 8 2.
- [11:33]
Saagar Enjeti
They are shutting it down. We're not shutting it down. We don't want it to shut down because we have the greatest period of time ever. I told you, we have $17 trillion being invested. So the last person that wants to shut down is us. Now, with that being said, we can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them, like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like. And you know, all, you all know Russell vote, he's become very popular recently because he can trim the budget to a level that you couldn't do any other way. So they're taking a risk by having a shutdown because, because of the shutdown, we can do things medically and other ways, including benefits. We can cut large numbers of people out. We don't want to do that, but we don't want fraud, waste and abuse. We rolling the greatest hits on our social media.
- [12:26]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I'm just saying that the point about giving people who are here illegally healthcare is not exactly what is in their proposal.
- [12:32]
Saagar Enjeti
It is 100% what they're proposing.
- [12:34]
Krystal Ball
Immigrants who have legal status. And you're just referring on who's eligible. I looked at it actually, because I was curious about your argument yesterday.
- [12:40]
Saagar Enjeti
You should study the CBO's analysis that they just put out a few weeks ago.
- [12:43]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I saw that. About the 1.2 million people. You're basically arguing about who has legal status. People who are seeking refuge here or.
- [12:49]
Saagar Enjeti
No, I'm making sure that we are making sure in our provisions that we sign into law have ensured that health care benefits go only to eligible US Citizens. Chuck Schumer's proposal, federal law was not being enforced. That's the whole point. We had to fine tune that so that we could strengthen the health care program. That's what we did.
- [13:06]
Krystal Ball
A response to Republicans like House Speaker Mike Johnson and others who say the subsidies don't expire until the end of December. We have time to negotiate on those and we could find some common ground.
- [13:15]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, for a stock. Common ground, really. They have had months and for the first time in modern history, they have not sat down. What has always happened. It's a majority. You know, he talks about how 13 occasions they worked with the Democrats. It's true, because the Democrats in that case sat down with them. So what you need is a bipartisan solution. What these guys have said, it's my way or the highway. This is the way it's going to be. And that's kind of what Trumpism is about. That's that authoritarian tendency that we're seeing in America right now.
- [13:46]
Krystal Ball
So are you telling me you're willing to vote no every time? Leader?
- [13:49]
Saagar Enjeti
Damn right. I am not going to allow. Let me be clear. All right. You can quote me on this. You can quote me on this. We say in Vermont, till the cows come home, I will not let tens of thousands of fellow Americans die because they're thrown off of health care.
- [14:02]
Krystal Ball
I love saying you could quote me on this while you're on camera. But Ryan, that Bernie Energy is exactly what Hakeem Jeffries lacks.
- [14:10]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. He also got on the line. He said, as we say in Vermont, until the cows come home. As we say, we'll give him that because Vermont has a lot of cows.
- [14:19]
Krystal Ball
Sure.
- [14:20]
Saagar Enjeti
But come on. Like everybody says, as cows, until the cows come.
- [14:22]
Krystal Ball
He can't claim that.
- [14:24]
Saagar Enjeti
But like I said, special exemption for Vermont. They got an awful lot of cows. So fine, we'll let them have that other separately. If you'd have told me 10 years ago, I'd be looking at the government getting shut down by Donald Trump with RFK Jr. And Dr. Oz standing behind him.
- [14:39]
Krystal Ball
Yep.
- [14:39]
Saagar Enjeti
Like, what is. Where did we go wrong? What happened?
- [14:43]
Krystal Ball
You would think you were tripping.
- [14:44]
Saagar Enjeti
What is going on here?
- [14:45]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [14:46]
Saagar Enjeti
Dr. Oz chuckling about Russ Vogt in the back there. So and so. That's the key point, though. The substance here is Russ Vogt is the Mastermind of Project 2025. He is one of them. A key thought leader.
- [15:00]
Krystal Ball
Absolutely. Yeah.
- [15:01]
Saagar Enjeti
When it comes. He was the OMB director under Trump 1, he dulled his hatchet just by slashing through everything he possibly could. Learned A lot of lessons spent the next four years sharpening that thing. And now he's back there and he knows what he's doing and he believes, and we could get into the laws or whatever, what's the point? Because that's besides the point in a political era where power is everything, he believes that in a government shutdown, he can destroy the government much faster.
- [15:35]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I have an article pulled up actually from you mentioned the sharpening of the hatchet. This is from Eric Teitzel, who's the executive director of the center for Renewing America. Very much like movement conservative, but the center for Renewing America is where Russ was before going back into the White House. And Eric writes, until this year, conservatives have opposed crs. They wanted to use the annual appropriations process to cut spending and eliminate woke wasteful and weaponized federal programs, eliminate annual deficit spending and reduce the national debt. Then goes on to say, however, President Trump and his director of OMB, Russ Vott, came into office in January 2025 with a plan to revive lawful authorities of the President in spending that had long lay dormant, namely the powers of impoundment and rescission. And if you've been watching this show for the last several months, you know that we've covered their claiming of the impoundment and rescission powers. Impoundment, disagreement on impoundment goes back to Nixon. The Russ vote and the Trump administration have an ideological belief that is obviously also convenient for the sake of power, but it is an ideological belief that is powers that should lie in the hands of the executive. And so Eric goes on to say, in short, these powers allow the President to decline to spend money that Congress has appropriated, sending it back to the treasury. This means that conservatives in Congress no longer bear the sole weight of cutting spending. The President can do it, too. Suddenly, a CR that merely keeps funding flat from previous years is both a cut in real terms with inflation and nominally, and an opportunity for the President to make additional cuts. And let me read one more line. Eric says, that's juicy, but here's where it gets even better. If there is a government shutdown due to a lapse in congressional authorization, the President and his team, led by Russ Boat, must decide how to prioritize whatever federal revenues are received. So Eric compares that to like a man, a family managing their household budget, and says the President decides whether to pay the credit card bill or cut the cable only. The options are keeping national parks open or funding research for transgender hormone therapy in mice.
- [17:28]
Jeff Merkley
But.
- [17:28]
Krystal Ball
But that's on the table, right? Now as are potentially mass layoffs.
- [17:33]
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
- [17:33]
Krystal Ball
Which is where Democrats were genuinely fearful of what would happen with the shutdown. Ryan at the same time, though, that in their corner politically, they're being asked to blank check the Trump administration.
- [17:48]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. Yeah. Democrats are in a tough spot because they're, they. Well, because they're mostly out of power, but their base wants them to fight. They're sick of the sternly worded letters. They don't have a lot of power and they don't have any. I think if Democrats had charisma and a message that they were regularly delivering on television and on social media, Democrats would then forgive them for doing nothing in Washington because, like, look, okay, they're inspiring. They have a message. They're rallying the country against what's being done. They're not remotely doing that. We've got Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. Embarrassing. Democrats are embarrassed by their leadership.
- [18:33]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [18:34]
Saagar Enjeti
So then they're like, well then do something like shut the government down. So you've got Indivisible and these other grassroots organizations that are pressuring Democrats. Show us you have some spine. But absent a message and any charismatic leadership, it's just kind of like just do something in order to just do something. And then meanwhile, Republicans, I feel like actually want a government shutdown so that Russ Vogt can do this thing.
- [19:02]
Krystal Ball
Absolutely.
- [19:03]
Saagar Enjeti
That he wants to do further savage the government. And I think Democrats in Washington are like, well, long term, strategically this is a bad idea because it's going to lead to a lot of people getting fired and the government getting destroyed. But we kind of have to do it because our base wants us to.
- [19:19]
Krystal Ball
Do something because our base hates us.
- [19:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [19:22]
Krystal Ball
And they're not wrong because this is like Hakeem Jeffries versus Bernie Sanders is like the stark contrast there tells you what you need to know.
- [19:35]
Maggie Freeling
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- [20:34]
Saagar Enjeti
Hi there, this is Josh Clark from.
- [20:35]
Ben Klein
The Stuff youf Should Know podcast.
- [20:37]
Saagar Enjeti
If you've been thinking, man alive, I.
- [20:39]
Jeff Merkley
Could go for some good true crime podcast episodes, then have we got good news for you.
- [20:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Stuff youf Should Know just released a playlist of 12 of our best true crime episodes of all time.
- [20:48]
Ben Klein
There's a shootout in broad daylight, people.
- [20:50]
Jeff Merkley
Using axes in really terrible ways, disappearances, legendary heists, the whole nine yards.
- [20:56]
Saagar Enjeti
So check out the Stuff youf Should Know true crime Playlist on the iHeartRadio.
- [20:59]
Jeff Merkley
App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:07]
Saagar Enjeti
All I know is what I've been.
- [21:08]
Josh Clark
Told and that's a half truth is a whole lie.
- [21:12]
Maggie Freeling
For almost a decade, the murder of an 18 year old girl from a small town in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved until a local homemaker, a journalist, and a handful of girls came forward with a story.
- [21:28]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.
- [21:30]
Maggie Freeling
We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigator on national tv.
- [21:39]
Saagar Enjeti
Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.
- [21:46]
Maggie Freeling
My name is Maggie Freeling. I'm a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist producer and I wouldn't be here if the truth were that easy to find.
- [21:56]
Saagar Enjeti
I did not know her. I did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other.
- [22:00]
Krystal Ball
Stuff that y' all said.
- [22:02]
Saagar Enjeti
They literally made me say that I.
- [22:03]
Maggie Freeling
Took a match and struck and threw it on her.
- [22:05]
Saagar Enjeti
They made me say that I poured.
- [22:07]
Jeff Merkley
Gas on her.
- [22:09]
Maggie Freeling
From Lava for good. This is Graves County, a show about just how far our legal system will go in order to find someone to blame.
- [22:20]
Jeff Merkley
America, y' all better wake the hell up.
- [22:22]
Saagar Enjeti
Bad things happens to good people and small towns.
- [22:29]
Maggie Freeling
Listen to Graves county in the Bone Valley feed on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.
- [22:51]
Krystal Ball
Hakeem Jeffries I don't know, Ryan. I'm curious what you make of this. I just think his Schumer is Schumer and he's sort of a creature of Washington. But Hakeem Jeffries tries really hard to seem like something else. He tries really hard to feel like he's a grassroots populist almost in his presentation of leadership talking points, but it really seems to me like it falls flat. Maybe we can roll this Trump meme you may have caught. This is a four. We can't play the music, but you can see this on your screen. Trump tweeted out again. Another meme on Hakeem Jeffries. Another joke on Hakeem Jeffries. Yeah, this is a vo. We can play it while I'm talking here. So Trump posted this again. It's a clip of Hakeem Jeffries on MSNBC talking about how Trump putting the sombrero and mustache and mariachi garb on Hakeem Jeffries is racist, as he's saying that Trump posts a video that puts the sombrero and mustache and has Trump playing mariachi music in the background. And Ryan, I know it's.
- [23:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Is that racist? I mean, it's insensitive.
- [24:00]
Krystal Ball
I don't know.
- [24:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Hakeem Jeffries is not Mexican.
- [24:03]
Krystal Ball
No, he's not Mexican. And it wasn't like.
- [24:06]
Saagar Enjeti
It's childish. It's juvenile.
- [24:07]
Krystal Ball
I was just gonna say. Yeah, I know that this is Donald Trump's boomer memeing, but that tells you something about how pathetic Hakeem Jeffries is.
- [24:15]
Saagar Enjeti
It is an interesting contest between two parties who are in different worlds. And Trump seems to believe that the world that he's creating and then occupying is the one where power is going to reside in a country and in a world in which people are fed up with the old system, whereas Hakeem Jeffries is just clinging to some type of bygone values. And he even referenced. And I might have even been in that interview. All of a sudden, they're in this Oval Office, meaning a bunch of, like, Maga 2028 hats.
- [24:50]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [24:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Show up on the coffee table, and.
- [24:53]
Krystal Ball
The White House takes pictures and puts them out.
- [24:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And Jeffries says that he said to J.D. vance, you okay with this? And he says that J.D. vance said no comment, which is Jeffrey's like, reaching back for some type of comedy and civility.
- [25:13]
Krystal Ball
Right, Right.
- [25:14]
Saagar Enjeti
And implying then to the audience that J.D. vance secretly pines for that as well.
- [25:19]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [25:20]
Saagar Enjeti
And probably does.
- [25:21]
Krystal Ball
Maybe.
- [25:22]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [25:22]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. I mean, I don't know. But like, Hakeem Jeffries, wasting any breath calling a meme from Trump racist during this shutdown fight, when they have the political gift of talking about health care is insane to me and just so indicative of where their heads are at. Like, he should be. Yes.
- [25:43]
Saagar Enjeti
It's just. I sympathize with him, cuz, man, Trump is a lunatic. What Are you supposed to do so say that it's like Trump pull, let's say, pulls up to the meeting in a clown car and you're not supposed to point out that he and J.D. vance and all these other clowns are stumbling out of a clown car. Like, it's hard. I get why you should stay focused on the health care, but it's like, he's in a clown car. Does everybody see. Does everybody else see this?
- [26:09]
Krystal Ball
You just don't have to call the clown car racist because then it becomes an entirely. Like, he should know this media ecosystem and he should know that voters, many of his own voters, are sick of these invocations of racism when they feel like their material world is crumbling in front of them. Health care prices are about to go up and are going up, actually. So I just think it's crazy for him to waste a breath on it. And on the other side of that, Marjorie Taylor Greene, let's put up 8th. Had some criticism for her own party. This is. She posted this yesterday.
- [26:40]
Saagar Enjeti
Fifth squad member.
- [26:42]
Krystal Ball
The fifth squad member. Americans are getting crushed by health insurance with monthly payments of 1500, 1700 and over $2000 per month. Instead of a revolving door of foreign government leaders to the White House, I'd like to see health insurance CEOs in there getting chewed out on live television. Health insurance is out of control. So that was again posted the day before the government shut after. The day after Netanyahu was at the White House. And Ryan, she's cooking.
- [27:11]
Saagar Enjeti
She is. If I had unlimited amount of time, my next book, I think, would just.
- [27:16]
Krystal Ball
Have to be about MTG.
- [27:17]
Saagar Enjeti
What a fascinating good idea. ARC. She's taken, and she is correct. Monthly payments of 1500, 1700, 2000 per month. When the subsidies go away, are going to be a bloody nose to a middle class that is already suffering under the weight of everything going up. Groceries are up like 50% or something year over year.
- [27:42]
Krystal Ball
It's insane.
- [27:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Like, and people know, like, wait, how much am I paying for just two bags of groceries? And then at the same time, this. The insult to the injury of your coffee is $4 extra because of tariffs. Because Trump is trying to encourage a domestic coffee production industry. Where are we gonna plant Coke? Where are we gonna plant. How are we gonna get coffee in the United States?
- [28:05]
Krystal Ball
No, seriously, how are we gonna do that? Yep.
- [28:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Greenhouses. And I think it's gotta be drier than that. So I don't even like, why are we just. Because he doesn't understand things like, you have to pay more at the grocery store. And then right. Who rolls in and out for the fourth time, Netanyahu rolls in and out of the oval office. So MTG's like, how about we bring in the insurance CEOs? And now, yeah, good. Crack down. Go MTG.
- [28:35]
Krystal Ball
And to answer her rhetorical question of why not, it's because they're all big donors. The same goes for Democrats, by the way. And the reason part of what we're dealing with, Affordable Care act wise, is that the bill was this hulking mess that had all kinds of. It was in some ways this compromise between. And in some ways an understandable compromise between industry. You were covering this at the time between industry and the sort of idealism of Obama about bringing health care prices down. But they compromised with industry in a lot of different ways. And that's not completely what we're dealing with now is not completely downstream from that. But for Marjorie Taylor Greene, I think to be jumping in and criticizing Republicans for health care for, I mean, an obvious blind spot. Republicans for a decade campaigned on health care, did nothing about it, and now never even talk about it unless it's in reference to what they say are, quote, illegal immigrants just covered. But it's just a massive blind spot that is maybe one of the biggest holes and sources of anxiety in the average American's daily budget. And they've got nothing.
- [29:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And just briefly want to keep people updated on the fight over electricity bills, we could put up a five new research from Bloomberg here showing that that as you suspect like that your intuition is correct in areas where there have been data centers built, electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago. That's near quadrupling. That's insane. And it's only getting worse as they continue to build these and as both parties are supportive of these big tech sweetheart deals that basically require ratepayers, consumers to subsidize the production of these AI in these data centers. And do not ask Grok about that because then you're just. You think it's free. Every time you ask him if this is true, you're paying. Stop.
- [30:53]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Thanks to everybody for all their questions.
- [30:55]
Saagar Enjeti
To Although Sager roasted us for yesterday. Yeah, I don't want to encourage it. Like the whole carbon footprint was a neoliberal, like ridiculous attempt to make something that is system wide a personal responsibility question. The same thing with recycling, which is fake, which is almost entirely fake. So I don't want to like shame people for using AI or Grok or whatever as if you have some like grok footprint.
- [31:26]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [31:26]
Saagar Enjeti
And that if you use less grok that your electric bill will go down because it's a systematic problem, as if.
- [31:32]
Krystal Ball
You have any agency.
- [31:32]
Saagar Enjeti
But also stop with this other than voting in order, you should just stop because it's like an insult to all.
- [31:37]
Krystal Ball
Of our intelligence just to wrap a bow on everything we've alluded to a bit. Why this is probably in both parties political interest even if it's not in the American people's interest to have a shutdown government. But for both parties coming to an impasse on this, I don't, they just don't have many incentives. Democrats are reportedly hopeful right now that actually Donald Trump is the one who will come to the table on the ACA subsidies or the ACA expansion because he's someone who wants to be able to say I gave you your health care cheaper. I gave you your health care, I fixed the problem with your health care. Now you can thank me for the health care because of the shut down aversion or ending the shutdown. I Donald Trump ended the shutdown. So I think we can expect this to go on for a long time. That probably they're probably correct that that's their best bet at this point because Donald Trump can basically tell congressional Republicans what to do and they'll follow him, no question about it. But if they let it go on for a few days at least they'll already start, Bethey'll already start experimenting with some of these long term cuts that they want to do. And finally, Ryan, this is a point that we haven't talked about, but it's what most of the media coverage focused on. I'm thankful that this isn't what most of our coverage is focused on because it's kind of a secondary story. But in prior shutdowns there's just this finger pointing game that gets played in the media. Everyone seeing it, is it Republicans fault, is it Democrats fault? And when we were reading the op ed earlier about Russ Boat saying, well previously Republicans have opposed these CRS and have opposed, you know, all the way that we're funding the government. Well, there are arguments that you can, there's always a partisan argument for who actually shut down the government. Republicans can say, well Democrats wouldn't come to the table and Democrats can say, well Republicans are the ones who won't give us the votes. This time it's the Democrats who will not give Republicans the vote. And Rand Paul, they need seven because Rand Paul is out. So I'm curious if we'll be able to look back on the media coverage of this one as an instructive example as to who gets the blame when they're not giving the votes.
- [33:40]
Saagar Enjeti
We'll see. These are called process arguments.
- [33:42]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [33:43]
Saagar Enjeti
And the public does not care about process. Does not care. And parties in general also do not care about process. They invent concerns about process to justify whatever their substantial or political demand is. So nobody should really waste much time thinking about that. Last thing on this we have a little scoop. Attorney General Pam Bondi just before 5 o' clock last night sent out a memo to the Department of Justice which we obtained and which one of the attorneys there sent to me flagging it as a flagrant, what they call a Hatch act violation, which was a law that is still on the books, which was a law but does not actually get enforced anymore which says that the federal government cannot be used for partisan political purposes. That's illegal. Yesterday if you went to hud.gov during the day it gave you a giant banner that said sorry that you're coming here but radical Democrats have ruined the world.
- [34:42]
Krystal Ball
Still there. It's still up right now.
- [34:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Go to hud.gov so that the memo she sent out Attorney General Bondi. Unfortunately Democrats are blocking this CR in the US Senate due to unrelated policy demands. If congressional Democrats maintain their current posture and refuse to pass a clean criminal to keep the government funded before 12:00am on October 1, federal appropriate funding will lapse. The department has contingency plans in place, et cetera. This is the kind of thing that would have been a five alarm scandal even just ten years ago. Now the full politicization of the federal government has taken hold as it's just weaved into this otherwise bureaucratic sounding memo sent to thousands of lawyers.
- [35:30]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, like they that's an extra bold.
- [35:33]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, yeah. What does she care anyway?
- [35:36]
Krystal Ball
Well let's go ahead Ryan and bring in Representative Ben Klein of Virginia who will be followed by Senator Jeff Merkley.
- [35:41]
Saagar Enjeti
You brought in Klein. He's a Freedom Caucus.
- [35:44]
Krystal Ball
Right. Freedom Caucus.
- [35:45]
Saagar Enjeti
So he'll tell us what the right flank of the House is thinking.
- [35:48]
Krystal Ball
Well and that's especially interesting giving the Marjorie Taylor Greene. She's not in the Freedom Caucus anymore. She's still roughly Freedom Caucus.
- [35:53]
Saagar Enjeti
She booted out being too based.
- [35:54]
Krystal Ball
Yes. And she criticizes them a lot now. But to have a kind of populist perspective on a health care fight is always I think useful, especially since it's been such a blind spot for Republicans. So we're going to talk to Representative Klein in Virginia. And then we're going to bring in Senator Jeff Merkley who can I think give us some insight into how prominent Democrats are thinking about this.
- [36:15]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And Merkley, first elected in 08, represents Oregon. So we'll ask him about the federal war that Trump declared on Oregon yesterday as well. Plus, he was he and Chris Van Hollen were actually they tried to go to the Gaza Humanitarian foundation sites pretty recently. So we can ask Merkley about that too.
- [36:36]
Krystal Ball
And just before we toss them, they're just the real world consequences of a shutdown. As many as 4 million federal employees, I'm reading yes, those reading from ABC right now. But people have been through it now. They sort of know what to expect. So that includes some service members could go without a paycheck. That actually includes some of the National Guard people who were deployed to places like Washington, D.C. potentially to Chicago or Memphis. Hundreds of thousands, including airport security officers, air traffic controllers and certain members of the military will be deemed essential workers and told to come to work anyway. So if you have a flight, you don't have to worry too much. Except last time when there was a shutdown, you just get a lot more call outs of TSA people who are calling in sick because they don't know whether they're going to get paid. If this lasts particularly long, national parks could close. The Smithsonian could. It's staying open till Monday so far.
- [37:23]
Saagar Enjeti
But and like apparently in the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for instance, apparently about roughly one person is deemed essential. Which means if this goes on for a long time, the already somewhat unreliable data that we're getting out of the BLS will become that much more unreliable because you don't have time because you need the workers to be collecting the data on a daily basis. Otherwise you are flying blind in the economy. So stuff like that too, we'll see.
- [37:51]
Krystal Ball
And then broke this morning that BLS nominee EJ and Tony's nomination has been withdrawn.
- [37:56]
Saagar Enjeti
Right this they'll find some other bows though.
- [37:59]
Krystal Ball
All right, let's get to it.
- [38:04]
Maggie Freeling
Let's be real. Life happens, Kids spill, pets shed and accidents are inevitable. Find a sofa that can keep up@washablesofas.com Starting at just $699, our sofas are fully machine washable inside and out. So you can say goodbye to stains and hello to worry Free living. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics, they're kid proof, pet friendly and built for everyday life. Plus changeable fabric covers let you refresh your sofa whenever you want. Neat flexibility. Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa anytime to fit your space, whether it's a growing family room or a cozy apartment. Plus, they're earth friendly and trusted by over 200,000 happy customers. It's time to upgrade to a stress free mess proof sofa. Visit washablesofas.com today and save that's washablesofas.com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.
- [39:03]
Ben Klein
Hi there, this is Josh Clark from the Stuff youf Should Know podcast.
- [39:06]
Saagar Enjeti
If you've been thinking man alive, I.
- [39:08]
Jeff Merkley
Could go for some good true crime podcast episodes, then have we got good news for you.
- [39:12]
Saagar Enjeti
Stuff youf Should Know just released a playlist of 12 of our best true crime episodes of all time.
- [39:17]
Ben Klein
There's a shootout in broad daylight, people.
- [39:19]
Jeff Merkley
Using axes in really terrible ways, disappearances, legendary heists, the whole nine yards.
- [39:25]
Saagar Enjeti
So check out the Stuff you Should.
- [39:26]
Ben Klein
Know true crime Playlist on the iHeartRadio.
- [39:28]
Saagar Enjeti
App, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. All I know is what I've been.
- [39:37]
Josh Clark
Told and that to have truth is a whole lie.
- [39:41]
Maggie Freeling
For almost a decade, the murder of an 18 year old girl from a small town in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved until a local homemaker, a journalist and a handful of girls came forward with a story.
- [39:57]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.
- [39:59]
Maggie Freeling
We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigator on national tv.
- [40:08]
Saagar Enjeti
Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.
- [40:15]
Maggie Freeling
My name is Maggie Freeling. I'm a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist producer and I wouldn't be here if the truth were that easy to find.
- [40:25]
Saagar Enjeti
I did not know her and I did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other stuff.
- [40:30]
Krystal Ball
That y' all said.
- [40:31]
Saagar Enjeti
They literally made me say that I.
- [40:32]
Maggie Freeling
Took a match and struck and threw it on her.
- [40:34]
Saagar Enjeti
They made me say that I poured gas on her.
- [40:39]
Maggie Freeling
From Lava for Good. This is Graves County, a show about just how far our legal system will go in order to find someone to blame.
- [40:49]
Saagar Enjeti
America, y' all better wake the hell up. Bad things happens to good people and small towns.
- [40:58]
Maggie Freeling
Listen to Graves county in the Bone Valley feed on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.
- [41:20]
Krystal Ball
We are joined now by Congressman Ben Klein, Republican representing Virginia's 6th district. Congressman, thank you so much for joining us.
- [41:28]
Ben Klein
Good to be with you.
- [41:29]
Krystal Ball
Okay, so you are a member of the Freedom Caucus and somebody who, you know, used to be pretty close with Freedom Caucus world, this Rush vote. And I'm curious, Congressman, if you could talk to us a little bit about how this shutdown, how Republicans are looking at the possibilities of this shutdown empowering from their perspective. The Russ vote and Donald Trump efforts to actually make significant cuts while the government is shut down to go on impoundment rescissions and potentially even layoffs of federal workers. Is that a significant part of the plan that people could expect to see in the coming days?
- [42:04]
Ben Klein
Well, the administration has its priorities. Our priorities in the House and in the Senate with Republicans are to get the government back on track. You know, this is we passed regular order continuing resolutions to keep the government running. We've done our job. The Senate is trying to, I mean, the Democrats are trying to attach extraneous provisions, but we will hopefully be back up and running. And you know, in the meantime, if the administration is going to pursue their priorities of streamlining government, then, you know, then I think that's something Republicans are generally in favor of. We hope that they are targeted and that they are in areas where we need streamlining. But, you know, I think that Russ Vote has done a fantastic job as OMB director. And I think we look for him to make decisions that are going to help improve, improve efficiency and reduce bureaucracy.
- [43:04]
Saagar Enjeti
And so the big beautiful bill which Democrats are kind of making this shutdown fight about included significant tax cuts tilted towards the wealthy. And to pay for some of that, there were significant cuts to Medicaid and then to Obamacare subsidies, which Democrats say, and I think there's actually a lot of data to back this up, is going to be really brutal for hospitals in particular in rural America. Are you seeing any pressure from your constituents who are concerned about hospital hospital closures?
- [43:38]
Ben Klein
Well, my district voted for President Trump, voted for the Trump agenda, voted for Republican control in the House and in the Senate. So, you know, what we are doing is delivering on the agenda that the voters voted for. And so when we passed the big beautiful bill we passed included language that would eliminate waste, fraud and abuse in Medicaid by putting in place common sense work requirements, by streamlining SNAP benefits, make sure that there's not duplication, that there's not people who shouldn't be on food stamps, getting food stamps. All of that is the Democrats are seeking to roll back the election of last November and say it didn't really happen. Our agenda is the agenda that people voted for and won. So we want more bureaucracy, more waste, fraud and abuse and More excess spending on pet projects like health care funding in California for illegal immigrants.
- [44:34]
Krystal Ball
Well, yeah, I was just gonna ask. So if Democrats dropped, and that seems right now to be a big if, if Democrats dropped, they're part of these negotiations that would apply to the quote like lawfully present immigrants, which could include people who came over and claimed asylum. Even if they crossed illegally and then claimed asylum. If they dropped that part of this. Do you think there would be a pat way to an agreement to reopening the government if they just got rid of would Republicans come to the table if they just got rid of the tax care, the health care, I'm sorry subsidies for people who are not U.S. citizens?
- [45:11]
Ben Klein
You know, that's not the only problem with the Democrats demands. It is one of the most egregious. But the health insurance subsidies, let's remember Obamacare broke the health insurance marketplace so that all the health insurance policies are now out of reach for low income and middle income earners. And so to to actually afford these Obamacare policies, Democrats have put in place subsidies and want to keep the money train going to the insurance companies. Republicans don't think we should be subsidizing insurance companies with $40 million, $40 billion, excuse me, to in additional money to pad their balance sheets. So we need to put more competition in the marketplace, put more low cost health insurance options for working families. That's how we're going to address the problems that started long, long ago. And putting it into a continuing resolution just is malpractice on the part of the Democrats. We can talk about ways to reform health care once we get the government back up and running, but we have to do that first.
- [46:20]
Krystal Ball
If you don't mind, I just wanted to this post from Congressman your colleague Marjorie Taylor Greene who said yesterday on Twitter Americans are getting crushed by health insurance with monthly payments of 1500, 1700 and $2000 per month. Instead of a revolving door of foreign government leaders to the White House, probably referring to Benjamin Netanyahu there. I'd like to see health insurance CEOs in there getting chewed out on live television. Health insurance is out of control. And I thought that post was really interesting because it reflects the sentiment that I could hear maybe people in your district or just average Trump voters who might see their premiums sp saying yes, we all agree that we should fix the health care system, but you're asking me to wait for a massive political project that might or might not ever happen because of the state of Congress. So doesn't that, I mean how would you address somebody who says, look, I'm being raked over the coals every month. I can't afford this. This is out of control. Please just do something. I can't wait for Republicans to undo ACA with some grand solution in the future.
- [47:22]
Ben Klein
Yeah, Republicans agree, which is why we oppose what the Democrats want to attach to the cr, which is such a rollback that millionaires and billionaires are going to qualify for these subsidies that they currently receive. That's outrageous. And as to the health care locations, the hospitals and other health care facilities, those are going to be benefiting from the 50 billion that is in the big beautiful bill that goes to rural health care. And that's something that Democrats want repealed. They want all of big beautiful bill repealed, including 50 billion for rural health care, including putting back in place tax subsidies extended for millionaires and billionaires. It doesn't make any sense. It shows the, the lack of focus on the Democrats part. We have three Democrats, two Democrats and an independent who voted with Republicans last night for the continuing resolution for a clean cr. So it's clear that they're breaking and we just need to keep the pressure on and hopefully they'll come around and vote for a clean CR and then we can talk about how to resolve the spending for the next fiscal year.
- [48:32]
Saagar Enjeti
Let's talk about that $50 billion number, though. So Republicans in the big beautiful bill cut about a trillion dollars from Medicaid, Medicare and the Affordable Care act, aca.
- [48:43]
Ben Klein
Obamacare, Psychotic waste, fraud and abuse.
- [48:44]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly right. So let's. Because we have a wasteful. We have a wasteful system and a lot of it goes to health insurance executives, a lot of private equity executives who own a lot of our providers. Let's say that even half, let's say half of that trillion dollars is just siphoned off by profiteers. I don't think it's 500 billion, but let's just say, let's just say it is probably closer to say 200 billion. Let's say that means $500 billion is being stripped out of the health care system. Money that's not going to go now to providers and to community health care systems. I was looking it up. Lee County Community Hospital in your district is saying that it might close. So you've got a. Conservatively, you have a $500 billion gaping hole blown in the healthcare industry by this bill. And Republicans, because they understood the political risks of that, came back in with, with a $50 billion kind of backstop. So I hope for your constituent sake that Lee County Community hospital does manage to win the fight in the snake pit to get that money from that $50 billion pot. But don't the numbers just not add up there? Like if you're taking 500 to a trillion out, but only putting 50 billion back in, aren't we going to see some significant bankruptcies among hospitals and providers?
- [50:11]
Ben Klein
Well, Lee county is not in my district, but we do have a lot of rural hospitals in my district. And what they are saying is that, yes, that because we expanded Medicaid to cover working adults, that putting in place work requirements is going to put the responsibility on them to actually qualify for Medicaid and stay qualified for Medicaid. And then the increased reporting requirements is going to again put it on them and on the hospitals to make sure that only those who are qualified are going to receive Medicaid. So these common sense measures are going to make sure that more money is available for rural hospitals. And then you add on the 50 billion that's going to flow back only to rural hospitals. You know, rural hospitals really only use about 5% of Medicaid funding. And for them to actually get this directed money without the big hospitals and the big competition for those funds, since it's just going to rural hospitals, you're going to see them benefit directly and hopefully our constituents in rural areas will too.
- [51:22]
Krystal Ball
Last question for me, Congressman, is just how far are House Republicans willing to push this? And maybe you have insight into the Senate side and President Trump as well. But consensus here in Washington is that this is a shutdown will probably, I mean, it may even challenge the record long shutdown from President Trump's first administration because of what the incentives look like for both parties here. And I tend to, even as rarely as I agree with the Washington consensus, that does feel right to me this time. So what's your take? I mean, how far are House Republicans willing to hold out if Democrats don't add their votes to the, to the, in the Senate side?
- [52:01]
Ben Klein
If Democrats weren't in existence in the Senate, we would have a continuing resolution. It would be business, you know, continuing in the, in the federal government because Democrats are refusing to provide those seven votes. That's why we have a shutdown. So it's on them to come back to the table. Three have come back. We need four more. I anticipate that by the time we get back to Washington next week, after the Jewish holiday and after the weekend, we are going to be ready and the Democrats will probably be ready to get this thing resolved and open the government back up again.
- [52:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Emily and I were talking earlier in the program about how it's interesting that Republicans now when they're opposing these Obamacare subsidies, have done it in the context of whether or not the money the subsidies are going to illegal immigrants, rather than kind of challenging the subsidies ideologically as they did for many years. Does that. I know Freedom Caucus is pretty still squarely against those types of subsidies, but are you noticing an ideological shift among Republicans that they're in a populist sense more open to these government subsidies and that's why they're looking for this angle of well, they might accidentally benefit illegal immigrants, so that's why we're against them. But for American citizens, okay with it?
- [53:30]
Ben Klein
No, I think for multiple reasons, you see Republicans explaining to the American people why these subsidies distort the marketplace and are wrong for health care. And maybe a temporary solution for folks right now. But long term, the money that is being asked for will go directly into the pockets of insurance executives. They'll keep premiums high and they won't provide any kind of relief for working families. We have to long term solve the problem that Obamacare broke broke when it destroyed our health insurance system. But short term, we do have to address high health insurance costs, but we have to do it without making sure that millionaires and billionaires benefit from these subsidies. And the Democrats, that's what they want in order. That's what they're holding the government hostage to get an extension of these subsidies to every income earner, including illegal immigrants and taking away 50 billion for rural health care. It doesn't make any sense. And I'm hoping that Democrats can to their senses and reopen the government soon.
- [54:35]
Krystal Ball
Congressman Klein, thank you so much for joining us here on Breaking Points this morning. We appreciate it.
- [54:40]
Ben Klein
Thanks guys.
- [54:41]
Krystal Ball
Thank you.
- [54:44]
Maggie Freeling
Life's messy. We're talking spills, stains, pets and kids. But with Annabe, you never have to stress about messes again. At WashablesOfAs.com, discover Annabe sofas, the only fully machine washable sofas inside and out. Starting at just $699. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics, that means fewer stains and more peace of mind. Designed for real life, Our sofas feature changeable fabric covers allowing you to refresh your style anytime. Need flexibility? Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa effortlessly. Perfect for cozy apartments or spacious homes. Plus they're earth friendly and built to last. That's why over 200,000 happy customers have made the switch. Upgrade your space today. Visit washablesofas.com now and bring home a sofa made for life that's washablesofas.com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.
- [55:44]
Ben Klein
Hi there, this is Josh Clark from the Stuff you Should Know podcast.
- [55:47]
Saagar Enjeti
If you've been thinking, man alive, I.
- [55:49]
Jeff Merkley
Could go for some good true crime podcast episodes, then have we got good news for you.
- [55:53]
Saagar Enjeti
You, Stuff youf Should Know just released a playlist of 12 of our best true crime episodes of all time.
- [55:58]
Ben Klein
There's a shootout in broad daylight, people.
- [56:00]
Jeff Merkley
Using axes in really terrible ways, disappearances, legendary heists, the whole nine yards.
- [56:06]
Saagar Enjeti
So check out the Stuff youf Should.
- [56:07]
Jeff Merkley
Know True Crime Playlist on the iHeartRadio.
- [56:09]
Saagar Enjeti
App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [56:17]
Jeff Merkley
All I know is what I've been.
- [56:18]
Josh Clark
Told and that to have truth is a whole lot.
- [56:22]
Maggie Freeling
For almost a decade, the murder of an 18 year old girl from a small town in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved until a local homemaker, a journalist and a handful of girls came forward with a story.
- [56:38]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.
- [56:40]
Maggie Freeling
We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigation on national tv.
- [56:49]
Saagar Enjeti
Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.
- [56:56]
Maggie Freeling
My name is Maggie Freeling. I'm a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist producer and I wouldn't be here if the truth were that easy to find.
- [57:06]
Saagar Enjeti
I did not know her and I did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other stuff.
- [57:11]
Krystal Ball
That y' all said.
- [57:12]
Saagar Enjeti
They literally made me say that I.
- [57:13]
Maggie Freeling
Took a match and struck and threw it on her.
- [57:15]
Saagar Enjeti
They made me say that I poured gas on her.
- [57:20]
Maggie Freeling
From Lava for good. This is Graves County, a show about just how far our legal system will go in order to find someone to blame.
- [57:30]
Saagar Enjeti
America, y' all better wake the hell up. Bad things happens to good people and small towns.
- [57:39]
Maggie Freeling
Listen to Graves county in the Bone Valley feed on the iHeartRadio radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.
- [58:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Joining us now is Senator Jeff Merkley, Democrat of Oregon, to talk about the Democratic posture when it comes to the shutdown and also update us on his recent trip over to the Gaza attempt to visit the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Senator Merkley, thanks so much for joining us.
- [58:21]
Jeff Merkley
Good to be with you.
- [58:23]
Saagar Enjeti
So when it came to the Democratic decision making on how to confront Republicans on this shutdown, how was it that party leaders wound up settling on, on kind of health care subsidies as the thing that you were going to make this fight about.
- [58:41]
Jeff Merkley
Well, if you compare March 15th and as Shakespeare said, we wear the ides of March and now here we are a number of months later. What has happened in the intervening period? Well, the big factor was passing what we refer to as the big ugly betrayal bill that what did it do the bub. It savaged Americans health care. And that factor is coming due here in the coming months because in November people will be signing up for healthcare again and they'll be discovering double digit increases. In many cases they'll be paying twice what they paid the previous year. And in some cases, families in Oregon will be paying 8 to $25,000 more and they simply won't be able to afford it. You go without health insurance, you don't go to the doctor. Health conditions get worse. When you do go, you go to the most expensive version, the emergency room. When you can't pay the bill because you don't have insurance, then the revenues decrease for our clinics and our hospitals, many of which are already on edge. And so Republicans are shutting down the government in order to cut health care. And why did they do this? To fund tax breaks for billionaires. Wow, this is a families lose, billionaires win direction and healthcare touches every family in America.
- [60:08]
Krystal Ball
Are Democrats willing to come to the table on the key issue that Republicans have been talking about, which is health care for noncitizens? It's for people who are lawfully present. Republicans are saying illegal immigrants. The truth of that is people who are like lawfully present may have claimed asylum in the big wave of migration that we saw over the last few years. So if Democrats are willing to, I'm curious under, are Democrats willing to come to the table and drop health care that would cover non citizens for the sake of getting the government back open for US citizens?
- [60:39]
Jeff Merkley
Listen, the Republicans are engaged in a big lot because no one who is here undocumented is eligible for Medicaid. No one who is here undocumented is eligible for Medicare. And so that big lie is an effort to distract from what they did, which was to savagely cut health care for working Americans and struggling Americans across the spectrum. This bill that they passed was rolling out the red carpet for billionaires and rolling out the red tape for struggling families who are trying to get on their feet. And so the vision that is different here is that we want to make America work for everyone to be able to succeed. And I must say, the reason we call this often their bill an Ugly betrayal is because President Trump campaigned on helping families. But then when you saw in the rotunda, he's being sworn in and I'm about 20ft away from him, second row back, and who's standing behind him? Not champions for health care or housing or education or good paying jobs or investment in infrastructure or equality of opportunity or making our planet healthier. None of that. No, no, it's billionaires day. One of his administration was dedicated to making billionaires even wealthier and doing so at the expense of everyone else. And wasn't just cutting health care in their bill, it was cutting child nutrition and it was creating 30 trillion in additional debt over 30 years. Why? To fund tax breaks for billions of winners. So certainly when you get in the room, there's going to be a lot of discussions over the, over details. But that's the key is Republicans said, we are not even going to talk to you. The president, when he was non President back in 2013 said, the President has a responsibility to bring everyone together. If there is a shutdown, it's on the President's head. So this is Trump's Republican shutdown. But he wasn't willing, now that he's president, he wasn't willing to meet with our team until essentially were, you know, we're approaching midnight, if you will, and he instructed the speaker of the House, you don't talk to Democrats either. And the majority Leader in the Senate didn't talk to Democrats. In other words, it was like, okay, well, let's talk about this because we are not going to just say that this horrific assault on families in America is okay. We're not going to say it's okay. We are not going to support them that come talk to us. And they were unwilling to do so.
- [63:19]
Saagar Enjeti
So in a moment we're going to be talking about Trump and Pete Hegseth appearing at the Pentagon yesterday. And while there, Trump talked about how, you know, he wants the military to start using American cities as training grounds. And he has said that he's going to send, or I guess is sending the military into Portland. As a senator from Oregon, what have you seen so far? And, and how do you respond to Trump's proposition here?
- [63:50]
Jeff Merkley
Yeah, a week ago Thursday, he announced he's going to, quote, do a number on Portland. He said, I'm going to have the Secretary of War deploy the troops and I'm going to authorize them to use full force and we're going to do a number on Portland. So we held a press conference and I called it the don't take the bait press conference. And we had all the local leaders, the mayor, our congressional delegation, the local city council members. Don't take the bait. What the president is up to is he wants to create riots in Portland. And so by sending an influx of federalized troops, while he's hoping there will be conflict, and then conflict justifies more authoritarian power. Power. So understanding this, our reaction has to be, don't take the bait. And so this is the. The message we're giving to people. Yes, protest, but don't protest by getting engaged directly with any of these officers. Now, it turns out that some things have developed in that instead of sending a whole bunch of different forces from different organizations the way he did in 2000, right now, what a 2020, what he's planning to do now is to federalize 200 of our Oregon National Guard, send in leadership. So it basically decapitates the leadership that's in Oregon and sends in separate leadership. They're going to go through a couple days of training. There is a hearing this Friday for a stay. And why. Why is that stay being considered? Because the power that the president's using, the authority he's using, is called title to 10, and it says the president can send in troops when there is an invasion or a rebellion. And this is very important because our founders were terrified of a standing army. They had seen dictators create an authoritarian state by using the power of an army. So they didn't want a standing army. They didn't trust it. And then 150 years ago, we had a general agreement that troops, and it's called Posse Comitatus law, that troops would never be used inside our cities, this exception being invasion or rebellion. So I'm hoping that we'll hear from the district judge, an injunction saying there's nothing that qualifies as an invasion or a rebellion. I went past the ICE headquarters, which is what Trump has focused on a couple times this last week, and I saw three women standing out with signs that had flowers on them. And are you kidding me? That's a rebellion. That's called an American protest. That's called freedom of speech. That's called free of assembly. That's as American as apple pie. There have been a few conflicts, kind of like the equivalent of a bar fight over the last couple months, but well within the ability of local police to tackle nothing that would constitute a rebellion. Think about a rebellion. What's a rebellion like? Civil war. That's a rebellion. Shays rebellion. That's the founding of our republic. That was A rebellion where you had a mob seeking to tackle the local armories, grab guns. But so what we feel what Trump is doing is very much out of the authoritarian playbook, extremely dangerous. And then he followed up, as you mentioned, by talking to the generals yesterday morning, and he says, you know, first of all, it's a loyalty test. You all don't like what I'm doing, leave the room. But you will be. You probably lose your rank. Okay, so loyalty to the Constitution is the oath they took, but Trump wants loyalty to presidents. Very dangerous. They said a group of you are probably going to be in charge of this strategy of sending troops to cities and making it a training ground. A training ground for what? For how troops are deployed across America. Folks have been coming to my town halls and saying, and I've done 36 of them this year saying, we are really worried that the president is going to create some emergency power, is going to say as emergency power hour. It's going to postpone elections. People are going to basically protest against that, and it's going to send in the troops. Is this what he's planning? Is this training so that troops will be prepared to go into cities? Once you go across this threshold and you do it repeatedly, it becomes easier and easier to repeat the precedent. I think this is an extraordinarily dangerous moment for us with an authoritarian president who's violating the Constitution left and right, and now talking about developing a hack of putting the military into our cities.
- [68:24]
Krystal Ball
If we take Trump out of the picture for a moment, what do you think needs to happen in Portland? I'm curious about that. You can correct me. I mean, there have been obvious, as you just mentioned, instances of political violence in Portland, more than less than, I should say, social bar fights, for example, but bar fights maybe with some political animus behind them. So what has to happen in Portland? And I ask that as somebody who, who doesn't like the expansion of government power, particularly in law enforcement, particularly domestically, but is it possible that there's this giant opening for Trump to seize on disorder in Portland as Democrats have let political violence fester in some cases in the city.
- [69:08]
Jeff Merkley
There's been very little violence in Portland. If you walked through Portland, you would just go, this is a city on the rebound. Of the 65 largest cities in America had the biggest decrease in murder rates year over year, year at 20%. In fact, it was cut in half. It had one of the largest 20% decrease in violent crimes. You see, the city has been rebuilding from COVID rebuilding from the 2020 conflicts with Trump and his first administration, things that have been closed down are starting to open back up. We see the impact, of course, homelessness and drug use. And those impacts are legal, less visible now as programs have ramped up to provide alternatives and assistance. Portland's been on the rebound. You would not recognize it as looking anything like what Trump has described. And if you have a few people who want to create disturbances and they've been coming late at night and throwing some stones in a very small number, that's where the local police arrest them. And that's a local police function. You throw a stone under federal building, you put off a fireworks aimed at a local building, even if it's not an ICE building, any building, that's a local police response. So there's nothing here that comes close to justifying federalization of the National Guard or sending in troops of any kind.
- [70:33]
Saagar Enjeti
We don't have much time left, but I did want to just get your quick perspective on your trip over toward the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's sites. Over there. One of the few American non mercenaries was able to get close. How close were you able to get and what was your interaction with kind of GHF officials and what was your takeaway as you and Senator Chris Van Hollen had made a trip there?
- [70:59]
Jeff Merkley
And the trip was much broader than just trying to get into Gaza, though that was a goal. We were turned down by the Israeli authorities. We then arranged to speak in a Jordanian overflight where they drop humanitarian aid. The Israelis canceled the flight. I mean, we were in Jordan with the C130 cargo planes all getting ready to take off and Israel canceled the flights. They didn't apparently want an American observing Gaza from the air. But then we were able to go to the border at Rafah gate, where we'd also been in January of 2024. But this time we were able to go through the transition area, area between Egypt and Gaza because the gates shut down. And at the far end we were able to climb an outside fire escape to the roof of a three story building, stand on the ledge and look out over Gaza and just see. Or over Gaza, but over the city of Rafah and just see everything reduced to rubble. It's one thing to see the satellite photos, it's another thing to stand there and just see that every building blown up. This was, it was stunning because it was just such visible evidence of the strategy, a twofold strategy of ethnic cleansing. The first strategy was destroy all the homes. Not just that they're empty and the city's been emptied out and there's shell holes or guns, no, everything blown up so you can't return. And the second strategy of deprivation, deprivation of food and clean water and medicine. And now we have a famine for the most vulnerable populations inside of Gaza. We have horrendous impact on children. Can you imagine two years of bombs falling, your family members dying, you've moved five or six or sometimes 10 times. No place is safe, no school can be held. Malnutrition rolls into famine. And it's just, it's the international workers say, worst hellhole in the world. As a result of this strategy designed to drive people out of Gaza, that was very powerful. We met with so many groups. We met with the families of the hostages. We met with soldiers who had served in Gaza, we met with international workers who had been inside. We met with World Food Program workers who had been inside. We learned about all the strategies to block, block the regular delivery of food that are constantly being used to extend this famine. What the same values that made me a passionate supporter for Israel are the same values that say what the Netanyahu government is doing is horrifically wrong. It's a violation of international law, it's a violation of every humanitarian or religious creed. It is just horrific. And America's complete implicit because of our close relationship. And we haven't used that close relationship to say hell no to this strategy of ethnic cleansing.
- [74:01]
Saagar Enjeti
And for people who don't know, Rafa is a city that dates back to the second, at least the second millennium bc. You know, Alexander the Great was there continuously occupied basically for something like 4,000 years. What was it like to see this, one of the most ancient cities on the planet, just reduced to non existence.
- [74:29]
Jeff Merkley
You couldn't recognize anything because it's all just rubble. So you see no signs of, you couldn't make out if you will, oh where was something that was ancient significant? It's all just rubble. But what really struck me was to recognize that six months earlier a million people were in that city. And just as in Gaza City a few months ago, a million people were in Gaza City. And now Gaza City is being raised and blown up in the same fashion. If this proceeds, you will find that you have 2 million people crowded into a small area on the very southwest corner of Gaza, which Gaza is already a very small place. And where are they going to to go? Well, the goal is to make life so miserable that they will self deport. It's American government's called it voluntary departure. There's nothing voluntary when you're being starved to death and indiscriminately bombed. So this is not all that's going wrong. You have on the west bank another strategy, which is that green light has been given for settlers to engage in massive harassment of Palestinian villages, cutting the villagers off from their, from their olive orchards, cutting them off from their vineyards, cutting them off from their springs or their wells, proceeding to run livestock right up into and often through these villages, and then assaulting the villagers when they, they leave the village itself to check on their lands or so forth. And it's. That also is to drive everyone out of Area C, basically a de facto takeover of the West Bank. That is wrong as well. 1947 vision was two nations for the two people. The world supported and endorsed and made happy happen the Israeli nation. But we never solidified a Palestinian state. This is why I introduced a resolution, the first of its kind, saying to the President of the United States, we should be recognizing a Palestinian state. The failure to do so has been a festering wound that's contributed to the cycle of violence in the Middle East. And I was pleased that nine other senators joined me. So 10 senators did something that hasn't been done before, and that is to speak up and say we've made a mistake, whether it was through Camp David and Oslo and all time since we never actually recognized the legitimacy of a Palestinian state. And it's time to make that happen. I do want to say that in the peace plan the President just put forward, there's a lot of elements that are the best step I've seen this administration make towards a fast, hopefully a fast ceasefire and the start of something new and better. We need a ceasefire. We need a massive influx of humanitarian. We need the return of all the hostages. We needed to break this ethnic cleansing strategy. It's better for Israel to break that strategy, it's better for the Palestinians. But let's build on a ceasefire to create a prosperous, peaceful future rather than have this haunting cycle of violence infect the decades to come.
- [78:04]
Saagar Enjeti
And we'll talk more about that plan later in the program. Up next, we'll be talking about Trump and Pete Hexith at the Pentagon now. Senator Jeff Merkley, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it, appreciate it.
- [78:16]
Jeff Merkley
A pleasure to be with you. Ryan and Emily, take care.
- [78:20]
Krystal Ball
Thank you.
- [78:22]
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- [79:23]
Ben Klein
Hi there, this is Josh Clark from the Stuff youf Should Know podcast.
- [79:26]
Saagar Enjeti
If you've been thinking man alive I.
- [79:28]
Jeff Merkley
Could go for some good true crime podcast episodes, then have we got good news for you.
- [79:32]
Saagar Enjeti
Stuff youf Should Know just released a playlist of of 12 of our best true crime episodes of all time.
- [79:37]
Ben Klein
There's a shootout in broad daylight, people.
- [79:39]
Jeff Merkley
Using axes in really terrible ways, disappearances, legendary heists, the whole nine yards.
- [79:45]
Saagar Enjeti
So check out the stuff you should.
- [79:46]
Ben Klein
Know true crime Playlist on the iHeartRadio.
- [79:48]
Saagar Enjeti
App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All I know is what I've been.
- [79:57]
Josh Clark
Told and that's a half truth is a whole lot.
- [80:01]
Maggie Freeling
For almost a decade, the murder of an 18 year old girl from a small town in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved until a local homemaker, a journalist and a handful of girls came forward with a story.
- [80:17]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.
- [80:19]
Maggie Freeling
We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigation on national tv.
- [80:28]
Saagar Enjeti
Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.
- [80:35]
Maggie Freeling
My name is Maggie Freeling. I'm a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist producer and I wouldn't be here if the truth were that easy to find.
- [80:45]
Saagar Enjeti
I did not know her and I did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other stuff.
- [80:50]
Krystal Ball
That y' all said.
- [80:51]
Saagar Enjeti
They literally made me say that I.
- [80:52]
Maggie Freeling
Took a match and struck and threw it on her.
- [80:54]
Saagar Enjeti
They made me say I did a poor guest on her.
- [80:59]
Maggie Freeling
From Lava for good. This is Graves County, a show about just how far our legal system will go in order to find someone to blame.
- [81:09]
Jeff Merkley
America, y' all better wake the hell up.
- [81:11]
Saagar Enjeti
Bad things happens to good people and small towns.
- [81:18]
Maggie Freeling
Listen to Graves county in the Bone Valley feature feed on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.
- [81:40]
Krystal Ball
Well, last week you may have been worried, as even some people from home that I grew up with were texting me if I had any idea about what the this mysterious meeting, this gathering of generals at the Pentagon was all about. You may have been concerned that we were going to war Secretary of War, as we're now calling it. I think Ryan, that moniker is more accurate anyway, left news consumers and military leaders fairly uncomfortable after he abruptly announced that they were planning this massive meeting of generals from around the world. Flew everybody in here to D.C. where we headed into war. What was it, this grand PR exercise, you guessed it, we talked about on last Friday's show, what it could be. I speculated if it was war, maybe it was in our own hemisphere. We'll get to that in just a moment. Actually, towards the end of the show, what we could be seeing in our own hemisphere.
- [82:29]
Saagar Enjeti
But it was my source at the time, remember, he said, this is just a giant Trump. He was like, yes, stupid exercise.
- [82:35]
Krystal Ball
He nailed it.
- [82:36]
Saagar Enjeti
He did nail it. And my life is filled with regrets, of course, but one of them is that I had multiple sources over the the last seven months telling me Hegseth keeps saying he wants to change this to the Department of War.
- [82:48]
Jeff Merkley
Oh my gosh.
- [82:49]
Krystal Ball
You ignored it.
- [82:49]
Saagar Enjeti
And I was like, that's too stupid to report. I'm not saying I don't believe you, but make me look like a moron.
- [82:56]
Krystal Ball
Who cares?
- [82:56]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, float that. He's talking about that. No, he actually did it.
- [83:01]
Krystal Ball
He did it. He did it anyway. So War Secretary Pete Hegseth, you're going to want to see some of these clips, because what Hagseth did basically was gather everyone for a pep talk that doubled as him making different points about, like, DEI stuff and also rules of war. We're gonna get into that in just a moment as well. And also a photo op for the military to, you know, sort of like the parade that happened in the summer look on the global stage and nationally, like it's putting its best foot forward, which I won't deny is I actually think that's important. But this was something else. Let's go ahead and roll our first clip here.
- [83:46]
Ben Klein
Very much value the impact of female troops.
- [83:49]
Saagar Enjeti
Our female officers and NCOs are the absolute best in the world, but when it comes to any job that requires physical power to perform in combat Those physical standards must be high and gender neutral.
- [84:05]
Ben Klein
If women can make, make it excellent.
- [84:07]
Saagar Enjeti
If not, it is what it is.
- [84:10]
Ben Klein
If that means no women qualify for.
- [84:12]
Saagar Enjeti
Some combat jobs, so be it. That is not the intent, but it could be the result.
- [84:18]
Josh Clark
So be it.
- [84:20]
Saagar Enjeti
This also means grooming standards.
- [84:22]
Ben Klein
No more beards, long hair, superficial individual expression.
- [84:27]
Saagar Enjeti
We're going to cut our hair, shave.
- [84:29]
Ben Klein
Our beards and adhere to standards.
- [84:32]
Saagar Enjeti
Because it's like the broken windows theory of policing. It's like when you let the small.
- [84:36]
Ben Klein
Stuff go, the big stuff eventually goes.
- [84:38]
Saagar Enjeti
So you have to address the small stuff. This is on duty, in the field and in the rear.
- [84:43]
Ben Klein
If you want a beard, you can join special Forces.
- [84:47]
Saagar Enjeti
If not, then shave. We don't have a military full of.
- [84:50]
Ben Klein
Nordic pagans, but unfortunately, we have had.
- [84:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Leaders who either refuse to call BS and enforce standards standards or leaders who.
- [84:59]
Ben Klein
Felt like they were not allowed to enforce standards. Both are unacceptable. And that's why today, at my direction, the era of unprofessional appearance is over. No more beardos. It all starts with physical fitness and appearance.
- [85:16]
Jeff Merkley
If the Secretary of War can do.
- [85:18]
Saagar Enjeti
Regular hard pt, so can every member of our Joint force. Frankly, it's tiring to look out at.
- [85:26]
Ben Klein
Combat formations or really any formation and see fat troops.
- [85:32]
Saagar Enjeti
Likewise, it's completely unacceptable to see fat generals and admirals in the halls of the Pentagon and leading commands around the country and the world. It's a bad look. Every member of the Joint force at.
- [85:42]
Ben Klein
Every rank is required to take a PT test twice a year.
- [85:46]
Krystal Ball
I mean, he also said, Ryan, more seriously, quote, we unleash overwhelming and punishing violence on the enemy. We also don't want to fight with stupid rules of engagement. We untie the hands of our war fighters to intimidate, demoralize, hunt, and kill the enemies of our country. No more politically correct and overbearing rules of engagement. Hexif has been a supporter of people who have been accused of violating laws related to war crimes.
- [86:07]
Saagar Enjeti
He was a big advocate for Eddie Gallagher.
- [86:10]
Krystal Ball
Right? Not accused. He was openly an advocate of Gallagher.
- [86:13]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, War criminal. Like convicted war criminal who all of his comrades called a complete sociopath, who stabbing and shooting people like innocent civilians. And so, like, if your bar is Eddie Gallagher, then you are lifting and removing what so many people take pride in when it comes to the US Military, which is this idea that you actually do protect civilian lives.
- [86:47]
Krystal Ball
What did you think of this line?
- [86:48]
Saagar Enjeti
That's what separate separates the US Military. Obviously, I have my criticism of the US Military, but that is a sacred belief that people have. And he's saying, forget that, spray away.
- [87:00]
Krystal Ball
The new compass heading is clear. Out with the Kiarellis, the Mackenzies and the Millies, and in with the Stocksdales, the Schwarzkopfs and the Pattons. Did you catch that one?
- [87:09]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And Patton famously got in trouble for slapping a private, I think in Italy Right. During that campaign. Yeah. So, yes, he's, when he was talking, I was like, wait a minute, is he coming after the special forces here? Because the guys with the tattoos and the beards are in the special Forces. And then he carves them out.
- [87:37]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [87:37]
Saagar Enjeti
Like, what are we doing here?
- [87:38]
Krystal Ball
Well, he says you can go to Special Forces if you want your beard. So Donald Trump also joined the gathering as well. Well, let's go ahead and roll B2.
- [87:47]
Jeff Merkley
We should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military National Guard, but military, because we're going.
- [87:55]
Krystal Ball
Into Chicago very soon.
- [87:57]
Saagar Enjeti
That's a big city with an incompetent governor. Stupid Governor Stupid. I thought would be met with fury on the left, but they're sort of giving up. I must be honest with you. They've had it. They've had it with Trump. I really thought that we were going.
- [88:11]
Jeff Merkley
To have to sort of fight it for through.
- [88:13]
Saagar Enjeti
There's been no fight. There's been no fight. Don't laugh, don't laugh.
- [88:17]
Jeff Merkley
You're not allowed to do that.
- [88:19]
Saagar Enjeti
You know what? Just have a good time. And if you want to applaud, you applaud. And if you want to do anything you want, you can do anything you want.
- [88:26]
Jeff Merkley
If you don't like what I'm saying, you can leave the room.
- [88:28]
Saagar Enjeti
Of course, there goes your rank, there goes your future.
- [88:32]
Jeff Merkley
And I'm not a fan of some of the ships you do.
- [88:34]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm a very aesthetic person and I.
- [88:36]
Jeff Merkley
Don'T like some of the ships you do.
- [88:39]
Saagar Enjeti
Aesthetically, they say, oh, it's stealth. I said, that's not stealth. An ugly ship is not necessary in order to say you're stealth.
- [88:49]
Krystal Ball
What you're missing is Ryan.
- [88:51]
Saagar Enjeti
This guy. This guy. Unbelievable.
- [88:55]
Krystal Ball
Take a look at this picture. Let's put this element up on the screen. This is B3. Doug Mills in the New York Times snapped a picture of military leaders after Trump's speech. Look, looking ashen, stone faced. Any other descriptions come to mind?
- [89:08]
Saagar Enjeti
Ryan, you know, questioning their life choices.
- [89:12]
Krystal Ball
Nonplussed.
- [89:13]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [89:16]
Krystal Ball
You know, it was at least we're not going to war, this one.
- [89:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. It was not a war meeting.
- [89:23]
Krystal Ball
It was not. We probably are still going to war. But we didn't announce some type of like, major World War III operation yesterday, so. So that's the silver lining, I guess.
- [89:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Trump, like, talking about we're gonna make major American cities training grounds for the American military. Like, that's just an incredible place for us to be as a country. Like, if you said that that was what Trump was planning to do a year ago, you would be accused of inciting violence against Republicans for blaspheming their good patriotic. And here he is. No, that's. That's actually what we're going to do.
- [90:00]
Krystal Ball
Let's put B4 up on the screen. This is about a report in the Daily Mail. This is Daily Beast covering the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail report is suggesting that Pete Hegseth, according to leaks, has been especially paranoid after Charlie Kirk's death, which is completely understandable, I think, but that he and his wife are at least seeming to be sort of even deeper entrenched mentality. And it's a tabloid story, I think, worth keeping in mind. We've seen the rebranding as Department of War, which I think happened actually right before Charlie Kirk died, maybe the day that Charlie Kirk died, if not a couple of days before. But also this new, this high profile meeting and tensions in Venezuela are heating up. So the leaks aren't good either. The leaks are going to fuel that sense of paranoia. If this makes it into the Daily Mail in a meta sense, that's going to make the Secretary of War, Ryan, even more paranoid.
- [91:00]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And so Pentagon insiders tell of explosive tantrums and erratic behavior, quote, crawling out of his skin. What the Daily Mail and people were saying, like, oh, it sounds like he's on the sauce again. That's not how I read it. I read it as this is a dry drunk who is going through basically untreated withdrawal. If you are a serious alcoholic and you just go cold turkey, this type of crawling out of your skin behavior can be a thing. Somebody was saying that he was seen drinking a Bud Light at a football game or something, but I don't know, maybe that doesn't even count.
- [91:44]
Krystal Ball
I don't know. I mean, I think, honestly put all of everything that's been reported about Pete Hegseth, which I'm pretty skeptical. I've met Pete Hegseth a couple of times. I don't necessarily think that he has a drinking problem right now. But put all of that aside because I'm sure there are people who have different stories, whatever. But I mean, I guess a lot of them were from the past either way. Way. All this to say what happened to Charlie Kirk, we covered it at the time. The ramifications, we're not even talking about a Charlie Kirk related story here, but the ramifications on the right are going to be significant in ways that aren't always obvious. And some of that might be just stoking intense paranoia about personal security in ways that can push people in dangerous directions, I think, Ryan, I mean, because when your paranoia, a lot of paranoia becomes irrational, it can start in a rational place. I think it's rational for public figures right now to be paranoid after the cold blooded assassination of somebody. So. Yes, but that can have consequences just on a personal psychological level. So I don't know if that's what's going on. But this meeting, I guess I'm just grateful was not some major war announcement. And that's a low bar perhaps and.
- [93:04]
Saagar Enjeti
We'Ll get to that later in the show.
- [93:05]
Krystal Ball
Yes, that might not be announced. It might just happen. It sure as hell won't be voted on.
- [93:10]
Saagar Enjeti
No, it won't.
- [93:11]
Krystal Ball
If you thought that Congress needed to take us to war, boy, have you been proven wrong, Ryan. Let's go ahead and get to the flotilla.
- [93:19]
Saagar Enjeti
So we had planned to make this segment about the potential interception of the Samud flotilla that is heading to Gaza. That was expected to come overnight because the flotilla has now entered the nautical mileage space space at which each flotilla before them has been intercepted by Israeli navy. But still smooth sailing. Fascinating.
- [93:44]
Krystal Ball
Literally smooth sailing.
- [93:45]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, smooth sailing. Well, I think rough seas, but otherwise smooth sailing headed towards the Gaza shores. So we will keep you updated as that unfolds. But instead, let's talk about what else we were going to talk about in this segment, which is updates on the Trump Netanyahu take it or leave it offer that he made to the Palestinians. But also incredible developments when it comes to the kind of propaganda side. So recently you had Netanyahu meeting with a bunch of influencers and he said the way that we're going to respond to the problems that Israel's image is facing worldwide is we're going to have our influence influencers go out there and make the case on TikTok. And he also said the most important thing to do is to purchase TikTok. Like that was his word. And Larry Ellison, a close ally of Israel through Oracle is indeed doing that. But incredible discovery in a FARA filing by Quincy Institute researcher Nick Cleveland Stout. And put this C1 up on the screen. New document reveals the Israeli government paying a copy of cohort of 14 to 18 social media influencers between $6,100 and $7,300 per post.
- [95:08]
Krystal Ball
The show is now fully in support of Israel. Our coverage will only be supportive of Israel. $7,000 a post every time we post about it.
- [95:15]
Saagar Enjeti
So if we do, let's say if we do a 15 minute segment that's slobbering about Israel and then we cut it up into to like 15 different.
- [95:25]
Krystal Ball
Clips, we'd be so rich.
- [95:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Can we cash 7,000 each?
- [95:29]
Krystal Ball
We're leaving a lot of money on the table.
- [95:31]
Saagar Enjeti
That is big money. That is a lot of money. So we don't yet know the identities of these 14 to 18 on social media influencers.
- [95:39]
Krystal Ball
We can guess.
- [95:40]
Saagar Enjeti
We can certainly guess.
- [95:40]
Krystal Ball
That'd be a fun game.
- [95:42]
Saagar Enjeti
It's a game show, I think. A week ago Brianna Wu announced that she'd be going to TikTok to start doing pro Israel content. Content. I don't know if she's getting paid or not, but interesting guess.
- [95:52]
Krystal Ball
The pro Israel influencers.
- [95:54]
Saagar Enjeti
It's like interesting timing, amazing. $7,000 per post. And so we've seen some of the, I don't know if it's these are the influencers getting paid, but we've seen, you know, you see a lot of posts that have started to circulate. I'm curious for your take on this. I think that they are now they have endless amounts of money and also dropsite as drop site reported, citing Haaretz actually that Israel just approved another $40 million boost to their global propaganda budget. This is on top of $150 million increase over what they had already been doing. $24 million of that is for quote, global influence campaigns. And $16 million is to finance international delegations visiting Israel. So these are the, whether it's lawmakers or influencers, they fund your trip. Flights from New York to Tel Aviv, nice hotels, good free food and drinks, travel. Your entire trip is paid for for they send, you know, good looking IDF soldiers around with you. It's like this whole shtick Hest type of soldier. Yeah, exactly. Yes, BMI is appropriate for that. Hegseth would be not ashamed. No beards, no beardos. And try to give them a good time. And then they go back and they have warm feelings and they have, and they meet people who dangle, you know, future opportunities. This is much more direct, like here's $7,000 to say something nice about us on TikTok. And then they have the problem of oh, but nobody wants to hear that. So then they take over TikTok and juice the algorithm so that you have to hear it like it's just going to show up in your for you page.
- [97:53]
Krystal Ball
Well, that's an important point. So this is something that Nick Cleveland Stout reports over at Quincy, which is I actually think gaming getting under reported. This is coming from Brad Parscale, also.
- [98:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Former Trump campaign manager.
- [98:09]
Krystal Ball
Right, right. And part of this is also about. I'm trying to find the exact part where Nick mentions this, but part of it is also about gaming, ChatGPT and AI search engine. It's like specifically in what Nick reports on he has a new this is what it is. So he did a up follow follow up and it outlines the Brad Parscale of it all. And Brad Parscale is also. This is, this is coming to Salem Media Group. Did you, did you catch this part of it? So Clock Tower, I think that's Parscale's group will integrate its pro Israel messaging into Salem Media Network Properties, a conservative Christian media group that boasts a vast radio network and produces high profile shows such as Hugh Hewitt, Larry Elder, right View with Lara Trump. In April, the conservative media network announced Donald Trump Jr. And Lara Trump as significant stakeholders in the new company. Salem Media Network did not respond to a question clarifying whether it would be compensated by Clock Tower for promoting messages on behalf of Israel or how these messages would be integrated. That is American media.
- [99:09]
Saagar Enjeti
Right?
- [99:10]
Krystal Ball
That's, that is actually some like conservative news outlets that could be then infiltrated by paid, paid propaganda. There's a difference and that's not a distinction without a difference. Propaganda is propaganda. Yes. When people are actually getting paid by a foreign government to do propaganda in a sensible news age outlets, that's a completely different ball game.
- [99:29]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. So. So follow the money here. So well, I guess the money starts in the United States, so it is American taxpayer money. But so then we, we subsidize Israel. Israel uses the money then to send to Brad Parscale, the Trump campaign manager, who then gives it to Lara Trump and other people, presumably in order to foist Israeli propaganda into these media propaganda properties. Because ChatGPT is trained to believe that these media properties have some level of reliability and substance to them. ChatGPT is probably told don't just scrape things from government propaganda websites and then believe it to be the case. It's more reliable to trust news sources rather than direct propaganda. So you pay to have the propaganda then smothered in into the news properties, these right wing news properties. And then ChatGPT absorbs it into its code and Then when you ask ChatGPT Is Israel good? ChatGPT responds based on the raw material that it's producing from these news shows, which then also can. Then they have Wikipedia articles armies that then try to edit Wikipedia articles, sourcing to these news shows that they have fought internally inside Wikipedia to get labeled as credible news sources. And then you tilt Wikipedia and then Wikipedia becomes raw material for ChatGPT and other other AI as well too. Because within a few years, everyone's understanding of reality will be shaped by whatever these AIs tell them is the real reality. So there's this massive arms race to shape what that reality is going to look like.
- [101:20]
Krystal Ball
And by the way, this happened right after Nick mentions this. We probably mentioned this on the show, but the SKDK Knickerbocker campaign to run a bot farm for the Israeli narrative.
- [101:32]
Saagar Enjeti
Group thing that we reported on.
- [101:34]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, right. Yeah, exactly. So this is coming. Lest you think it is just conservative media that's being infiltrated, Democrats are taking money to infiltrate social media with these narratives as well, which is man, no.
- [101:49]
Saagar Enjeti
And it can't happen a moment too soon for Israel, because let's take a look at the trash that they're currently putting out. We put up C2. So Israeli Ministry of Foreign affairs yesterday put out this post saying, exposed official Hamas documents. And that's when everybody is like, oh my God, official Hamas documents. Yeah, sure. Found in the Gaza Strip, now revealed for the first time. Turns out they tried to reveal these exact same documents in June and they think we all forgot about it. Prove Hamas's direct involvement in the funding and execution of the Samud flotilla to Gaza. Huge news if true. You then poke a little bit further into it and it turns out none of this is remotely true. But they write Hamas documents that were discovered in the Gaza Strip and are being revealed for the first time, again, not true. Show a direct link between the flotilla leaders and the Hamas terrorist organization. The way they try to put this together, they say the Palestinian Conference for Palestinians Abroad was established in 2018 and functions as Hamas representative body abroad, operating, operating de facto as Hamas embassies. The organization operates under the pretense of civilian cover and is responsible on behalf of Hamas for mobilizing actions against Israel. Then it says, first official Hamas document was found in the Gaza Strip. A letter from 2021 signed by Head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, directly and explicitly calling on the PCPA chairman for unity. So let's pretend. And I posted this on Twitter and said this should be a critical Thinking test for, like, students in a class on propaganda. So let's pretend for a second that all of this, everything that they're saying within the four corners of this is true. Huge, gigantic if. But let's just pretend. Let's say they have a letter from Haniya, who they assassinated in Tehran in his bedroom, that is calling on the PCPA chairman for unity in 2021. So here, put on your critical thinking hat. If, If Haniyeh has to ask the PCPA for unity, does Hamas run the pcpa? Think that one through. If they're not happy with whatever the PCPA is doing, why are they out there asking for unity separately? This is 2021. Was this Samud flotilla class organized in 2021?
- [104:20]
Krystal Ball
Anyway, so if you're just listening to this, you're missing Ryan's facial expression.
- [104:25]
Saagar Enjeti
So anyway, Israeli Ministry of Foreign affairs is in desperate need of help. So this $40 million boost couldn't come a moment too soon. And Good Lord, these 14 to 18 TikTokers are going to have their work cut out for them. Can you imagine being fed this stuff? Like, all right, for $7,000, make a post about how they're. This is true. And let's imagine for a second that you have critical thinking skills and you read this and you're like, oh, my God, this is what you're going with. And I haven't even mentioned yet that they put up some documents, they put up some photos with Greta and then circled a guy in red. The guy in red is George Galloway, who's a British citizen and former. Yeah, inform. Former member of Parliament, who in Israel's defense is pretty like Hezbollah and Hamas, sympathetic like he will. Like he look up any interviews with him. He's fun to watch. Very, like, articulate and passionate defender of armed resistance to colonialism all over the globe. But he's not the guy they're saying he is.
- [105:35]
Krystal Ball
Right, getting it wrong.
- [105:36]
Saagar Enjeti
You're getting it wrong here. And also it's George Galloway. So what's your point? You found Greta in a picture with George Galloway. This is your evidence. And again, like I said, this is pretending that all of this is actually authentic and true, which is a gigantic if. Why it's serious is that these are the kinds of things they do before they take violent action against, in this instance, the flotilla, to try to say, like, actually the flotilla is Hamas.
- [106:08]
Jeff Merkley
Right.
- [106:09]
Saagar Enjeti
And that's why we had to blow it out of the water. Let's hope that this is not the case.
- [106:13]
Krystal Ball
Priming the pump. Yep.
- [106:15]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. So anyway, And a quick update as well on the savage attacks on Palestinians inside Gaza. If you thought that they were going to abate while, while the final discussions around the take it or leave it offer from Trump and Netanyahu are being considered, you would be wrong. We put up this next element up on the screen. There was another double tap strike, this one in Gaza City's Al Zaytun neighborhood where they hit a school and then waited until paramedics and civil defense, whose job it is to get people out of the rubble, showed up at the site and then hit it again. If you want more details on what's been going on the last 48 hours, I would just suggest you sign up for Dropsite Daily. This is our new morning newsletter, which really goes into, into detail what's going on there. And then when it comes to the negotiations, two pieces of, two pieces of news there we have, you can put up C4. Trump was asked, how much time does Hamas get? And he, he said three or four days. Al Jazeera now reporting that officials from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey met in Doha on Tuesday with the Hamas negotiating delegation to go over the 20 point ceasefire plan. Hamas said it will study it with, quote, with great responsibility, which is, you know, that's not an outright rejection. And I do think, I think they're under enormous pressure to say yes to this and we can put up C5. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is kind of the second largest resistance faction in the coalition, initially came out with a pretty blunt, not rejection, but condemnation of it. I think nobody wants to say that this is going to be good because if it does go into place, Palestinians will be living with the consequences of it for years to come. And they don't want the, to say, to endorse it, but that's different than trying to find a way to accept it. And so a PIJ spokesperson is out again, kind of condemning it, but also saying that, you know, they want Palestinian unity and they want the Palestinian Authority to agree to it. This is a kind of hold hands and jump type of statement. So they're, you can read it here, very critical of it. And they're trying to get the Arab countries, they say if Arabs have a real role, they must pressure Trump to adopt their statement because the 21 point plan that the Arab leaders agreed to became a 20 point significantly edited plan after he met with Netanyahu. They're saying, can we at least go back to that initial one? I doubt they'll be able to do that. So they'll have a couple different days before they respond. But I've asked a whole bunch of different Palestinians in Gaza what their, what their take is on this. And to a person, they say like, we just want this to end. Like it doesn't this terrible deal, but we just want this to end.
- [109:30]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [109:30]
Saagar Enjeti
Under any circumstances, under, under any condition. People are just, people are starving to death and living in tents if they're lucky.
- [109:37]
Jeff Merkley
Right.
- [109:38]
Saagar Enjeti
Like it's actually pretty hard to get it tent, let alone food and water and access to medical care. So people just want this to stop. And so I think you're. So I think that Hamas will come back with some type of. Yes, with some tweaks.
- [109:53]
Krystal Ball
Right, with some tweaks.
- [109:54]
Saagar Enjeti
And we'll see if Netanyahu uses the attempt to get some tweaks to then just restart the war.
- [109:59]
Krystal Ball
It's all. Yeah, and it's very possible, obviously, as you guys have reported, that it was a giant pretext because Donald Trump and Netanyahu, I was at the press conference, made a point of emphasizing we can do this the easy way or the hard way, and that Netanyahu will be able to, as they said, Israel will be able to take care of the rest itself. So not an unfair reading of the agreement they worked on.
- [110:26]
Saagar Enjeti
So meanwhile, let's get to the soypocalypse hitting American farmers.
- [110:31]
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- [111:31]
Ben Klein
Hi there, this is Josh Clark from the Stuff youf Should Know podcast.
- [111:35]
Saagar Enjeti
If you've been thinking, man alive, I.
- [111:36]
Jeff Merkley
Could go for some good true crime podcast episodes, then have we got good news for you.
- [111:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Stuff youf Should Know just released a playlist of 12 of our best true crime episodes of all time.
- [111:46]
Ben Klein
There's a shootout in broad daylight, people.
- [111:48]
Jeff Merkley
Using axes in really terrible ways, disappearances, legendary heists, the whole nine yards.
- [111:54]
Saagar Enjeti
So check out the stuff you should.
- [111:55]
Jeff Merkley
Know true crime Playlist on the iHeartRadio.
- [111:57]
Saagar Enjeti
App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All I know is what I've been.
- [112:06]
Josh Clark
Told and that to have truth is a whole lie.
- [112:10]
Maggie Freeling
For almost a decade, the murder of an 18 year old girl from a small town in Graves County, Kentucky went unsolved until a local homemaker, a journalist and a handful of girls came forward with a story.
- [112:26]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm telling you, we know Quincy killed her.
- [112:28]
Maggie Freeling
We know a story that law enforcement used to convict six people and that got the citizen investigator on national tv.
- [112:37]
Saagar Enjeti
Through sheer persistence and nerve, this Kentucky housewife helped give justice to Jessica Curran.
- [112:44]
Maggie Freeling
My name is Maggie, I'm a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist producer and I wouldn't be here if the truth were that easy to find.
- [112:54]
Saagar Enjeti
I did not know her and I did not kill her or rape or burn or any of that other stuff.
- [112:58]
Krystal Ball
That y' all said.
- [112:59]
Jeff Merkley
They literally made me say that I.
- [113:01]
Maggie Freeling
Took a match and struck and threw it on her.
- [113:03]
Saagar Enjeti
They made me say that I poured gas on her.
- [113:07]
Maggie Freeling
From Lava For Good. This is Graves County, a show about just how far our legal system will go in order to find someone to blame.
- [113:18]
Jeff Merkley
America, y' all better wake the hell up.
- [113:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Bad things happens to good people in small towns.
- [113:27]
Maggie Freeling
Listen to Graves county in the Bone Valley feed on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to binge the entire season ad free, subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.
- [113:50]
Saagar Enjeti
So last week the treasury department announced a $20 billion bailout of the chainsaw wielding Argentinian libertarian President Javier Milei, which actually turned out to be a backdoor bailout of American hedge fund funds and China. Meanwhile, it is driving soybean farmers in the United States absolutely mad. Let's roll. JD Scholten, lawmaker from Iowa, talking about the effect of this trade war on soybean farmers in Iowa. Trump's illegal terrorists have single handedly destroyed.
- [114:26]
Josh Clark
The US Soybean market.
- [114:28]
Saagar Enjeti
As of yesterday, the price of Soybeans.
- [114:30]
Josh Clark
Is about $9.34 here in Iowa.
- [114:32]
Saagar Enjeti
Iowa, the cost of production is anywhere from $11 to $11.50. So per bushel of soybeans, it's about a two dollar loss. And when you add the fact that it's about 50 bushels in an acre of soybeans. Here you can do the math to see how bad things are. Historically, 60% of Iowa soybeans have gone to China. With Trump's trade wars from his first administration, the US has become an unreliable supplier. So instead of, instead of these soybeans.
- [115:00]
Josh Clark
Going to China, it's soybeans from South.
- [115:02]
Saagar Enjeti
America, like places like Brazil and Argentina.
- [115:05]
Josh Clark
That leads to more grains going to.
- [115:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Be left in the bin, which means to oversupply, which means to lower prices. So here's what we need to do. We need to demand trade, not aid. Farmers don't want a bailout, they want markets. The second thing we need to do is push for competition, both on the.
- [115:20]
Josh Clark
Market side and especially on the input side with seed and fertilizer cost.
- [115:24]
Saagar Enjeti
All right, so that's J.D. scholten, an Iowa Democratic lawmaker who's actually a former minor league pitcher.
- [115:28]
Krystal Ball
Really?
- [115:29]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And he's a big antitrust guy. But you don't have to take it from the populist left Chuck Grassley, if you want to call him a populist. I don't know. Iowa senator had one of his classic no punctuation, random caps, tweets where he says farmers very upset about Argentina selling soybeans to China. Right after USA bailout. Still zero USA soybeans, Soybeans sold to China. Meanwhile, China is still hitting USA with 20% retaliatory tariff. Need China trade deal now. Farmers need markets to boost farm economy. He still uses number two because he doesn't know that you can actually just Tweet past the 1. Probably know about the 140 character limit. So basically what's going on is that as JD Scholten said there, China buys more than half of Iowa's soil beans every year. In 2017 and 18, Trump started a trade war with China and China retaliated by at the time building relationships with a bunch of Brazilian soy farmers. What they also did is they started investing in Brazil because Brazil didn't have the infrastructure and the export technology and the on site storage to really meet Chinese demand. And they don't have the economic base to do it on their own own. So China was like, oh, United States is going to play games. Well, why don't we invest in Brazil and make it so that they are a more stable partner? So now Brazilian Soybean production since 2018, when Trump first started his trade war with China has almost doubled. So Brazil now can feed China a lot more effectively than they could nearly 10 years ago when Trump started this. Argentina is the Other big player.
- [117:13]
Krystal Ball
Which, by the way, that is a preview of what could potentially come 10 years after this current trade war on different issues. Not even just soybeans.
- [117:19]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly. Yes. We think that with this trade war that we're positioning America for this renaissance. In fact, we're just encouraging other countries to figure out ways of existing without us, which is.
- [117:33]
Krystal Ball
I mean, there are circumstances where that may be fine, but in this case.
- [117:38]
Saagar Enjeti
When you're a soybean farmer, not soybean farmer.
- [117:40]
Krystal Ball
Right, exactly. And I think, Grant, it speaks to the level of strategy that's actually at play as opposed to just like slapping crazy numbers out there or on different countries, slapping these numbers on there. But, like, there was obviously not a lot of thought about what was happening with Argentina and soybeans when the bailout happened. It was, hedge fund guys are freaking out and we, like Milei, it wasn't, what are they going to turn around and do with soybeans in China? And I think that's actually an important insight into the process.
- [118:13]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, yeah, exactly. And in a moment, we'll be joined by Joe Vas from the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast, which I love that they describe themselves as the biggest grain market podcast in the world on planet Earth.
- [118:26]
Krystal Ball
Love it.
- [118:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Gotta love that. So they'll talk to us about what the effects have been on the grain market. But yes, the hedge funds. And Scott Besant, former hedge fund guy. Are you ever a former hedge fund guy?
- [118:38]
Krystal Ball
It's like CIA.
- [118:39]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly. American hedge funds, when Milei was elected were like, oh, this is great. We're going long on our Argentina because Milei is going to do the thing we love. He's going to brutalize the unions and the poor and cut the government spending. And as a result, foreign capital is going to flow into Argentina and the economy is going to grow. So they put all their chips in on Argentina, doing great. Instead, what everybody else predicted is what happened. The economy further deteriorated and fell apart. And so now these hedge funds were looking at huge losses on their stock. Stupid bets. Turns out they were smart because they got the economics wrong, but they got the politics right. And Besant is coming in and bailing out all of these hedge funds. Now, at the same time that Argentina is getting this $20 billion bailout, they announce that they are cutting their export tariffs for soybeans, which slashes the cost of soybeans and chunks. China instantly buys enormous amounts of Argentinian soybeans. But don't take it from me, because who wants to believe me? So Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins Trump's Ag secretary texts Scott Besant and somebody named jg. And we know this because a photographer, Jameson Greer, I think it's Jeffrey Goldman.
- [120:05]
Krystal Ball
He said he is in the chats.
- [120:06]
Saagar Enjeti
He's still getting in the chats.
- [120:08]
Krystal Ball
Probably ustr.
- [120:09]
Saagar Enjeti
Probably Jameson Greer, the US Trade Representative. That would make a lot of sense. But making sense is not always what drives these things. So let's just pretend it's Jeffrey Goldberg. I actually texted Jeffrey Goldberg yesterday. I was like, look, you're still in these chats. He did not respond, so maybe he is. So anyway, she texts Scott Besant and jg, which we assume is green. And so she writes, so this is Besant getting lit up in the meeting and letting somebody photograph it.
- [120:40]
Krystal Ball
An Associated Press photographer got a snap on his phone.
- [120:43]
Saagar Enjeti
So the text says, I'm getting more intel. This is Brooke to Besant and jg. I'm getting more intel. But this is highly unfortunate. We bailed out Argentina yesterday. Parentheses Besant.
- [120:54]
Krystal Ball
Besant.
- [120:55]
Saagar Enjeti
So just to him, so that James and Greer doesn't catch any or Jeffrey Goldberg doesn't catch any strays in his text message chain. And in return, the Argentines removed their export tariffs on grains, reducing their price, and sold a bunch of soybeans to China at a time when we would normally be selling to China. Soy prices dropping further because of it. This gives China more leverage on us on a plane. But Scott, I can call you when I land.
- [121:22]
Krystal Ball
Did nobody think about this? It's a rhetorical question.
- [121:25]
Saagar Enjeti
No, clearly nobody thought because they don't care. The hedge fund guys were looking at losses and Milei and Besant said in his public statement when he made the bailout that the reason he was doing it is that Milei has an upcoming important election.
- [121:39]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [121:39]
Saagar Enjeti
And he wants Milei to win the election because then that will bring more investment into Argentina. So he is out loud saying that the United States is using American taxpayer money to intervene in Argentina's election, saying.
- [121:53]
Krystal Ball
It out loud and to undermine then American soybean farmers. We have a lot of different. I have a lot of question questions for our guests about Matt Stoller's analysis of this and what the Trump administration is doing to help maybe assuage concerns of farmers and people in the ag industry overall. But that is the text message is such a great insight into the illusion of grand strategy. Right.
- [122:18]
Saagar Enjeti
And again, geopolitically, would you call it very unfortunate? Highly unfortunate.
- [122:23]
Krystal Ball
Geopolitically, they did it.
- [122:24]
Saagar Enjeti
It's not like a flood.
- [122:25]
Krystal Ball
Right. Argentina is from the Trump administration's perspective, geopolitically a very important ally when you have Venezuela, when you have Colombia and what are perceived of, like, anti American administrations, especially like, as we've covered before, the pink wave taking over some of those countries. They want to keep Argentina happy, obviously, because they want to have that, what do we even call it, like a bastion of pro American allyship in a big country in the middle of South America. So geopolitically you see where they're coming from, like why they're doing what they're doing. But obviously they didn't. Even Argentina would take the bailout if the condition was soybean. Like if the condition was not selling, was not undercutting Americans.
- [123:16]
Saagar Enjeti
You can't screw us.
- [123:17]
Krystal Ball
Yes, they would take the bailout.
- [123:19]
Saagar Enjeti
We didn't even think to ask them not to screw us because we don't care. But also, can you imagine if Democrats had this type of solidarity instead of viciousness towards south and Central America, if Biden had offered a $20 billion line of credit to, instead of sanctioning Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba, you would not have had the migration crisis. Like Biden drove the migration crisis with his policies towards Central America, Venezuela and Cuba, which then helped bring Trump back to power. If they had done something like this. Instead, people would still be in their homes and in their neighborhoods in Cuba and Venezuela and Nicaragua and elsewhere. Anyway, so let's bring in Joe from the Grain Market podcast. Let's do it and get some details on how this is playing out. Joining us now is Joe Vaclavic from the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast. Joe reached out yesterday saying he'd seen some of my coverage, I guess on TikTok or whatever. I don't think we had covered it here yet and offered to provide some of his expertise because this is really your area. So, Joe, thanks so much for being here. Really appreciate it.
- [124:36]
Josh Clark
Yeah, I'm happy to be here. I'm a big fan of the show. I've been watching Breaking Point since the very beginning.
- [124:41]
Saagar Enjeti
I love it, love it. So I don't know if you were able to see the beginning of the show, but you've seen my shtick on this already. Tell us, what is the effect of Trump's trade war generally so far on. And we'll start at that high level on the American soybean market.
- [125:00]
Josh Clark
If we want to do high level, I'd like to backtrack a little bit just to give you kind of an overview of what's going on the U. S. Farm economy as it relates to our big cash crops, corn and soybeans and the farmers that grow those crops. We are in now what I would argue is the third year of a farm economy recession. A lot of this goes back to Covid and the inflation that occurred in the post Covid environment. So we know that everything on the planet repriced in the years following Covid. Right. We know that to be true. The government number CPI would, would all indicate that that is true.
- [125:31]
Jeff Merkley
True.
- [125:32]
Josh Clark
The very same thing has happened to farm inputs. The things that farmers have to buy to grow their crops, whether it's seed, fertilizer, machinery, all of those things are up. Corn production costs jumped 26% from 2021 to 2022. So we're in the backdrop here of, of this big inflation event. A lot of that is just generalized inflation. A lot of it's because the government threw billions and billions of dollars at farmers during and following following Covid.
- [125:58]
Saagar Enjeti
So you've got all that and it's a low margin business. Right.
- [126:01]
Josh Clark
If you're a corn farmer historically always a low margin business, highly cyclical, you go through years where you're break even to negative in terms of profit margins and then you go through a couple of boom years. We had a couple of boom years, 2021 and 2022 were really good. Remember we've been through this trade thing, trade war thing before and the last go around was rough. 1819 were rough. China signs the phase one trade deal in 2020. And they did as a matter of fact come in and they bought a whole bunch of US corn and a whole bunch of US soybeans in late 2020, into 21 and into 22. And everything that happened in 2022 was crazy. We had Russia, Ukraine, big commodity price blow up and everything just fell apart after that. Mainly because we just, we had big production, we had good weather in the US we had good weather in Brazil. And these markets, the commodity markets that we deal with, they're generally speaking, they're weather derivatives. If the weather's good, the prices go down. If the weather's bad, the prices go down, go up. So that's, that's the backdrop. The trade war with China is, is icing on the cake here in terms of the farm economy and how bad it is and how much money farmers are going to lose. Last year China accounted for 19% of all demand for soybeans grown in the United States. About 55% of it is our beans that we crush. Domestically there's about 40ish percent that's exports and of that 40ish percent. China's, you know, roughly half of it, basically, pardon my math if it's not perfect, but China is a big soybean buyer, or was. Now we're into a new marketing year. Farmers in the US have begun soybean harvest. China has not bought a single bushel of US soybeans for current marketing your delivery. And therein lies the problem.
- [127:35]
Krystal Ball
Now talk to us about how significant what happened with Argentina in the last couple of days is for soybeans. I mean, everyone on the surface looks at that and it's like, this is. This is insane. This bailout is insane. What Argentina does is insane. But how significant is it from the perspective of soybean farmers?
- [127:52]
Josh Clark
Optically, it's an absolute disaster for the Trump administration. It looks. It looks very, very, very bad. So the $20 billion in question, it hasn't happened yet. And it's supposed to be a swap line, meaning that we're going to give Argentina 20 billion in dollars, they're going to give us 20 billion in pesos. We assume a whole bunch of currency risk, but we get political influence in Argentina. Right. So as this was happening, these are all like, like simultaneous events. Advance. Argentina dropped its export tax on soybeans and corn, and China came in and bought a whole bunch of like, 40 cargoes of soybeans out of Argentina during that tax holiday. It just, it looks very bad optically, fundamentally. You know, it's a couple million metric tons of business that in all likelihood would have gone to the United States almost certainly this time of year. The time of year that we ship the most soybeans out of the United States is immediately post harvest. Like, call it October 1st, first through maybe mid January, and after that, the Brazilian crop comes online, China buys from them. So it's. It's a very bad look optically, and it doesn't help in terms of dollars and cents either.
- [128:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And you and I were talking briefly about this last night, and that really struck me. So it's because of the cycles of harvest, Brazil and us, different hemispheres, so different cycle harvest cycles. And so typically the fall, we'd be moving north to. To China. So if China can make it through the fall into the winter, when Brazil really fully comes online, they might be able to wait us out the whole time and buy nothing. Is that possible? Like, is there enough. Are there enough soybeans in the world for them to buy elsewhere through the fall?
- [129:32]
Josh Clark
Yes, there are. What could happen, though, is.
- [129:35]
Saagar Enjeti
Is.
- [129:36]
Josh Clark
Is ch. China prefers to keep healthy stocks of soybeans on hand. They don't want to draw down their stocks. Brazilian supplies this time of year kind of become exhausted. They've, they're already through their big shipping window. China's bought a little bit from Argentina. This is a debate in the grain industry right now. Can China actually make it to the Brazilian harvest without any U.S. soybeans? And if so, what's the impact? Are they going to draw down stocks? Are they going to risk drawing down stocks? We don't know. At, at this point, I think it's safe to say that if China does buy US Soybeans, beans, it's going to be in a reduced manner. You got to keep this in mind. China is, is avoiding US Soybeans as its way of fighting the trade war. China's imposing the, the tariffs on its own soybean buyers.
- [130:16]
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
- [130:17]
Josh Clark
So if China wants to waive the tariffs and say, we're going to buy US Soybeans and US Soybeans are cheap right now, just for. So we're clear, they're competitive, they can do it. They just don't want to because this is, this is one of the few bullets that they have to, to fight the trade war with the U.S. now.
- [130:31]
Krystal Ball
Matt Stoller wrote on Sunday. He says there is another set of announcements in which, quote, Trump sought to mollify his frustrated farmer base. Trump said he wants to use tariff revenue to bail out farmers. Stoller says it's possible, but could require Democrats in Congress to go along. Trump is also bragging about new international trade deals, though China is conspicuously absent, and he is trying to bring down interest rates, which will help farmers. Also, another announcement was that the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins and antitrust chief Gil Slater announced they would be looking, looking at the rising cost of crop inputs like seeds, chemicals, fertilizers and machinery. So there are three different things there. Really. What do you make of that kind of slate of potential Trump administration actions to try to mollify, as Stoller says, farmers.
- [131:16]
Josh Clark
There is almost certainly going to be some sort of farmer bailout. There was last time around it was called mfp, the Market Facilitation Program. And because of the trade war that occurred in 2018 and 2019, 19, the previous Trump administration sent farmers tens of billions of dollars as its way of making up for the lost sales via the trade war. In all likelihood, they're going to do the same thing. Something's probably going to be announced here in the coming weeks. And to be clear about what this does and who likes it and who doesn't, a Lot of farmers are not a fan of this. To go back to what I mentioned earlier, these payments that go out directly to farmers have directly influenced the inflation factors that I talked about earlier, earlier. High fertilizer prices, high seed prices, high machinery prices. A lot of studies have shown that the vast majority of these direct farm payments don't really end up in the pockets of farmers. The farmers are essentially a mechanism by which these payments flow through back to the fertilizer companies and the seed dealers and the machinery companies and the banks.
- [132:16]
Krystal Ball
Which are big corporations. Right?
- [132:18]
Josh Clark
Big corporations. And these are the corporations that lobby for the farm payments. It's not necessarily the farmers that are lobbying for the farm payments or the farm groups. It's the people who want their money back or want to continue to be paid or continue to make money. That's a huge, huge part of it that I don't think that the public understands is that so much of this money is just it's flow through money. The farmers, a mechanism so that the big banks get their money back. The seed dealers, the fertilizer, they want their money back. They want to keep their stock prices high. That's, that's a huge piece of this.
- [132:47]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. God forbid any of our companies suffer for any, any penalty. So if China does successfully stiff arm us, where else can the US sell soybeans? Like, who out there in the world is hungry enough for this amount of soybean harvest?
- [133:03]
Josh Clark
Nobody. In terms of soybean importers, China is head and shoulders above any other global importer. That being said, we have had other global buyers step up and export sales. Sales to this point for this marketing year, which just began a month ago, to non China destinations are elevated, but they're just. I don't think there's a scenario in which non China destinations make up the entirety of what China won't buy. Put it that way.
- [133:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I could, I can imagine Trump, you know, telling like Ghana, you want to, you know, you better buy up a bunch of our soybeans. Ghana's like one of.
- [133:40]
Josh Clark
Yeah. Nobody else has the appetite. I mean, China is just such a huge country.
- [133:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Want these? Yes.
- [133:44]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [133:45]
Saagar Enjeti
What about India? I mean, they got a lot of people, they want some soybeans.
- [133:50]
Josh Clark
I don't think so. We may sell some corn or some ethanol to India. They're, they're in the midst of a big ethanol push. I just, I don't know. I don't know exactly what the quantities are going to be. As with all these trade deals, you know, I kind of go back to the phase one trade deal that was signed in 2020, it's like the trade deals are, are almost like ceremonial in some way, shape or form. And really what happens is the trade deal gets signed. Does it mean anything when it's signed? I mean, publicly or optically? Yeah, it does. But in terms of our markets are concerned, the, the market, the soybean market, soybean traders, the guys trading soybeans with big money, they're not going to care till we actually see the export sales. In the case of the phase one trade deal, it was signed, I believe, on January 15th of 2020. It wasn't till six or seven months later that China came in and began to buy US Products aggressively. And they did, but it took a long time. So I think that with these trade deals like we saw the, the one with Taiwan announced a week and a half ago, I mean, whatever, it's, it's good press, but until they come in and start doing the business and we see an acceleration in the actual stuff that's being announced by usda, which is now shut down, by the way. But that's, that's what we need to see.
- [134:59]
Saagar Enjeti
All right, so anyway, if, if you're watching this program and you need a few billion tons of soybeans, America's selling, we are Joe Vaclavic with the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast. Really, really appreciate the insight here.
- [135:12]
Krystal Ball
Thank you.
- [135:13]
Josh Clark
Thanks, guys.
- [135:14]
Krystal Ball
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly in the process of a regime change effort against Nicolas Mazuro in Venezuela. That's according to a long new report in the New York Times. The military, according to this Times report, as well as also readying operations on narcotra traffickers inside Venezuela. So that's part of this big New York Times report. I'm going to read a quote from it here. The push by top aides to President Trump to remove Maduro as the leader of Venezuela has intensified in recent days, with administration officials discussing a broad campaign that would escalate military pressure to try to force him out. US Officials say it's being led by Marco Rubio, who is also nsa, by the way. And that comes into play a little bit here, too. Rubio argues that Maduro is an illegitimate leader who oversees the export of drugs to the United States, which he says poses a, quote, imminent threat. But Mr. Rubio is shaping a more aggressive strategy using intel provided by the CIA, the official said. And the Pentagon has built up a force of more than 6,500 troops in the region. Another key part of this article, John Ratcliffe. So that's the head of the CIA and Stephen Miller, obviously the chief domestic policy adviser close to Donald Trump, both support Mr. Rubio's approach, the officials added. Again, according to the Times, the US Military has been planning potential military operations targeting drug trafficking suspects in Venezuela as a next. As a next phase, although the White House has not yet approved such a step. Current and former military officials say there was actually another story, I think it was in the Washington Post ran just a couple of days ago, about how there's disagreement between the Pentagon and the White House regarding whether it's appropriate to start readying a military operation in South America. And I think Mexico as well, was part of the disagreements. Just finally from the Times, those operations would be aimed at interfering with drug production and trafficking in Venezuela as well as tightening a vice around Mr. Maduro. TRUMP Admin officials have not yet confirmed whether have been such exchanges and the White House did not provide comment on the matter. So this was a big New York Times piece basically reporting out, Ryan, what we knew was happening or what we all suspected was happening. There have been leaks to this effect, but this put it pretty clearly, I think, about what's happening inside.
- [137:19]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And I'm surprised he's not going for Cuba because the situation in Cuba, even though it doesn't get anywhere near the attention it should, is catastrophic. You know, people losing significant amounts of weight. The outflow of it's lost like a third of its population over the last like five years. Years or more. Crime is rising. It feels like the embargo with the tightening sanctions might actually finally do what it's been trying to do, which is topple the government and we'll get a failed state in its place. So for Rubio, who wanted nothing more than to topple that government his entire life, it's interesting that he's doing kind of Venezuela first.
- [138:10]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [138:12]
Saagar Enjeti
And it at least is pushing some Democrats to start to come out publicly against regime change in Venezuela. Representative Don Beyer, he posted Donald Trump's quote, special military operation in Venezuela is a terrible idea. He's going from murdering people on boats without charges or due process to what sounds like regime change by military force. A president, a quote, president of the peace, doesn't start new, unwise and unnecessary wars. This would be something that Democrats could follow Buyer's lead on and really push Trump on because outside of South Florida, nobody voted for this and half the people in South Florida don't want this. It's basically just using the US Military to, to play act this counter Revolution that these, that the South Florida Cuban population has wanted for 50 plus years.
- [139:08]
Krystal Ball
Well, I mean we have reminders that are still downstream of the Cold war in our foreign policy every day about how easily these types of operations can go wrong. Iran being one of them. An ally of Venezuela's by the way, in Venezuela clearly of interest to the United States. Venezuela's oil reserves are not unimportant. The United States interest in Venezuela, of course. And so these are incredibly kinetic situations, risky situations, explosive situations. And so if the US right now is readying, which clearly I think it is, precision targeted strikes on narco traffickers in Venezuela. And by the way, I read the entire, I think it was SDNY indictment of Maduro the other day and it's not insane. Like there are actually some pretty credible connections between Maduro and, and Cartel of the Suns and over the last, I mean I think it goes over like the last 10, 15 years. So some of it's going back pretty far. It's not insane that Maduro to say that Maduro as Rubio does. It's not insane to say that Maduro may have had something to do with narco trafficking. Again, he's the leader of Benazir.
- [140:14]
Saagar Enjeti
All governments are involved with drug trafficking.
- [140:16]
Krystal Ball
So Ryan wrote a book on what's it called? This is your brain on drugs.
- [140:20]
Saagar Enjeti
This is your country on drugs.
- [140:21]
Krystal Ball
This is your country on drugs. Yes. So anyway it's not an insane indictment but as a predicate for military operations, it's completely for military operations that are. Let's just say it would be a bit of a stretch to call Democratic because nobody's going to vote on this. Of course there's talk of actually using the AUMF earlier was that it was one of the Venezuelan boat strikes where people were throwing out that maybe it was covered by the aumf. Do you remember that? Like the anti terrorist AUMF after 9 11. Yeah. So just the ways that this could go wrong. We have had what, 50 plus years to learn from and especially as the right started re exploring a lot of this during the Biden administration and the first Trump administration about how intelligence agencies are undergoing these regime change and propaganda operations that then are anti democratic and trickle into as much as you may disagree with communism and see the dangers of communism and understand as a conservative, let's say that you share all of those perceptions as I do. This is crazy. This is crazy.
- [141:36]
Saagar Enjeti
If I were the lawyer for the Trump administration, the way I would tell them that you could use the AUMF is to say, because AUMF's says basically you can use force against like Al Qaeda and people involved in 9 11. I would say, okay, here's how you make the argument. The CIA helped to create Al Qaeda. The CIA helped to create a lot of these drug trafficking operations.
- [141:58]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [141:59]
Saagar Enjeti
So therefore there's a connection between the CIA and 911 and drug trafficking. And the AMF allows that's violence against, against anybody involved in 9 11. And so there you go.
- [142:12]
Krystal Ball
I was gonna say that's insane, but that is not insane. What's insane is the actual case that you make. The fact that that's real is like actually completely.
- [142:19]
Saagar Enjeti
It's all wrapped up, it's legal. Yeah. Because it's all CIA operation. Yeah, they all are. Yeah.
- [142:24]
Krystal Ball
And well, John Ratcliffe is reportedly on board.
- [142:27]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And then real quickly, the war, war with Iran keeps inching closer. Two interesting developments on that. We put up this next element. Trump administration reached a deal with Iran where they're sending a planeload of Iranian deportees. This is not the thing that's pushing us closer to war. Just kind of fascinating that like for the. And I don't quite understand it for. Because the United States has always said, oh, we will give asylum to these Iranian dissidents because Iran is terrible and it's the evil multiple mullahs and anybody who stands up to the evil mullahs is a friend of the United States. So what's going on here? Why, why are we like, actually. Never mind. Go back to the evil mullahs.
- [143:13]
Krystal Ball
I like, genuinely don't know. Probably espionage charges.
- [143:18]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't think it's too. Way too. This seemed just like standard migration situation.
- [143:25]
Krystal Ball
I don't know. I mean, maybe that's happened.
- [143:27]
Saagar Enjeti
We wouldn't send them back back. If they were spies, we wouldn't maybe.
- [143:31]
Krystal Ball
Send all of them back.
- [143:32]
Saagar Enjeti
But yeah, bizarre. But in another ominous development, this Amwaj media reported yesterday that the. So the French negotiations are ongoing around these snapback sanctions and the nuclear deal. French apparently came to a deal with the Iranians that would involve Iran basically giving everything up when it comes to its nuclear program again in exchange for some sanctions relief. US came in and basically vetoed that and told Iran, if, you know, stop enriching. You have to give us all of the enriched uranium. Because in the past, like you would store it somewhere or you would give it to Russia or wasn't like it wasn't. You would give it to the United States. You have to give us all of your enriched uranium. You have to stop your enrichment. And in exchange, we will give you a delay of like three months or six months or nine months of these snapback sanctions. So no sanctions relief, but just a delay of some further sanctions. And the Iranian government was like, wow, this is like insulting. It's so absurd. And so the sense among, among people watching this is like, that this is just a pretext for more strikes coming pretty soon.
- [144:54]
Krystal Ball
Yes. And Iran, by the way, has a lot of, like, oil property in Venezuela. And this goes back to what we were talking about earlier in the show with Argentina and soybeans, just in the last block about why Besset might be so interested in bailing out Argentina.
- [145:07]
Saagar Enjeti
So, yeah, and if we wanted, if the, if the US Government wanted prices to be lower for the American people, like, there are ways you could do it by not doing needless wars, for instance, with Venezuela and Iran, but that getting prices down for the American people is not remotely a priority, apparently.
- [145:30]
Krystal Ball
Well, that does it for us today. Ryan, Big show, big news cycle shutdown news isn't going anywhere. Crystal and Sagar will be back here tomorrow and we'll see everyone on Friday.
- [145:40]
Saagar Enjeti
Indeed.
- [145:41]
Krystal Ball
All right, see you guys then.
- [145:59]
Saagar Enjeti
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