Donald Trump (clip) (3:02)

And let me also convey my tremendous appreciation for all of the nations of the Arab and Muslim world that came together to press Hamas to set the hostages free and to send them home. We had a lot of help. We had a lot of help from a lot of people that you wouldn't suspect. And I want to thank them very much for that. It's an incredible triumph for Israel and the world to have all of these nations working together as partners in peace. And it's pretty unusual for you to see that, but it happened in this case. This was a very unusual point in time, a brilliant point in time. Generations from now, this will be remembered as the moment that everything began to change and change very much for the better. Like the USA right now. It will be the golden age of Israel and the golden age of. Of the Middle East. It's going to work together.

Krystal Ball (4:00)

Okay? So he also said that Marco Rubio would go down as the greatest secretary of state in history, as we mentioned earlier. And one of the points people have made throughout the war the last two years is that Netanyahu's incentive to end the war hinged, at least in some small part, on charges against him. Donald Trump weighed in on that as well. Let's go ahead and roll this clip.

Donald Trump (clip) (4:23)

I have an idea, Mr. President. Why don't you give him a pardon?

Krystal Ball (4:31)

Give him a pardon.

Donald Trump (clip) (4:35)

By the way, that was not in the speech, as you probably know. But I happen to like this gentleman right over here. And it just seems to make so much sense, you know, whether we like it or not, this has been one of the greatest wartime presidents. This has been one of the greatest wartime presidents. And cigars and champagne. Who the hell cares about that?

Krystal Ball (5:01)

So Trump is now on his way to Egypt for a ceremony that Crystal and Sagar will surely cover tomorrow with Arab leaders. But before Crystal, we get to that. I just want to get to what's happened in Gaza since. I just want to mentioned this quote from Steve Bannon this morning. He said the president, reacting to the speech, had his game face on when he showed up. Bibi clearly was icy. This is a catastrophic defeat for the Israel first crowd. And Tel Aviv Levin. I think he's referring to Mark Levin there. I'm sure they're banging their heads on the wall. It's a catastrophic defeat because they overreached, they pushed this Greater Israel Project and it came crashing down around them. Now, I have seen a dynamic like that between Trump and Netanyahu before where you can tell that in his like, Trumpian way, he's in public trying needle Netanyahu. I think there was a little bit of that with the length of the speech this morning. But I actually crystal don't see that Trump feels this is a catastrophic defeat. For the, quote, Israel first crowd in Tel Aviv Levin. I feel like he's of the impression that everyone is really happy with him.

Saagar Enjeti (6:02)

Yeah, that is definitely.

Krystal Ball (6:04)

I mean, the reception he got at Knesset was praiseworthy.

Saagar Enjeti (6:07)

Yes. Jeremy Scahill tweeted. The scene in the Knesset with Trump is like watching the inverse of a war crimes tribunal. The leaders and facilitators of the Gaza genocide are congratulating each other and applauding their crimes. And I think that's well said. And look, there's so much to say about this. Number one, this deal was always available, always. All it took was an American president, whether it was Biden or Trump, saying, we're done, you're done, we're done. This is ending. Very similar deal has been on the table from Hamas from the early phases of the war. So let's be clear about what has been done to these people over two years time, and we'll show you the homes that they're returning to, which in many cases are just simply rubble. The amount of death and destruction and disease and horror that has been enabled now by two successive American administrations is something that none of us should ever forgive. And there remain a lot of questions about what exactly happens going forward, because it's very possible that we look back on this speech as a sort of mission accomplished moment for Trump. He will have to again assert himself in order for anything, for the ceasefire just to be maintained. You already have Netanyahu and the President of Israel indicating that they're not done, that they want to go back in once they've gotten their hostages, their captives back. So just to maintain the ceasefire is going to continue to take presidential will and certainly any sort of rebuilding, reconstruction, anything that even approaches looking like peace or justice will require intensive attention from this precedent. And the initial 20 or 22 point plan, or whatever it is that he laid out, which envisioned him running a board alongside Tony Blair, does not even come close to approximating Anything like justice or peace, which is what is required in order to actually have coexistence and an end to the cycle of violence that has gone on for years and years and years. We are a long, long way away from that. But, you know, thank God that the people in Palestine, that people in Gaza are today able to. Able to live, able to eat, able to survive onto those next battles. I think, you know, we have to live in that duality of like, this is a horrible deal. There is nothing good that is on the table for Gaza coming forward. President Trump certainly doesn't care about their humanity and also that it is such. It's just, you know, watching these little kids with joy on their face that they're able to, you know, get, get some food and be able to go back to whatever remains of, of where they're from. You know, it's been, I think, very. It's been a lot emotionally.

Krystal Ball (8:47)

I mean, these videos that we're about to show everyone are like, incredible in a lot of different ways and incredible. You look at the just utter abject devastation and then incredible. When you look at people immediately rebuilding. When you look at people, the resilience.

Saagar Enjeti (9:03)

Is like, I can't even imag the tears. I cannot imagine it.

Krystal Ball (9:07)

I mean, it's just. Yeah, it's. It's one of the things I've seen that just one of those moments that makes you realize how siloed we are and like living in different universes you are. It's that, like, I've seen some people on the right saying, why are none of the ceasefire now? Why is none of the ceasefire now? Crowd celebrating the end of the war. And I mean, there's two things. On the one hand, I actually have seen a lot of people celebrating how beautiful it is to see videos coming out of Gaza where people realize that they are not under fire literally every single day. I've seen plenty of that. So it's just, it's there. It's obviously there. And on the other hand, it's like, well, how much of that can you do when there are also so many tripwires in this potential peace plan that is so obviously so, so fragile? So there's two things happening right there. But also it's impossible. It's impossible. It would be impossible for anyone not to watch these kids dancing and celebrating, realizing that they're not literally having to try to just survive every single day anymore.

Saagar Enjeti (10:14)

Yeah. And I think the other piece of that is, like, it feels very hard to celebrate something when you see people returning to Just rubble, you know, when, you know that the. We'll cover this, the one, you know, wastewater treatment plan in Gaza City has been destroyed. So there's just like no, you know, no sanitation, no civilian infrastructure, no schools, no mosques. The hospitals have been hit. Like there's. It's hard to. Hard to celebrate, you know, two years of utter destruction and horror and the, you know, the knowledge that lives are gonna continue to be difficult even as we are definitely relieved that the immediate assault is at least by and large over, at least for now. Let's go ahead and take a look at some of these images and I think that'll encapsulate better than my words could what this actually looks like. If we can put this up on the screen, guys, and I'll explain. You can see these are people, you know, returning to what remains and along the road. And this is what it looks like, you know, this is what remains. It's just an unbelievable scene of devastation. And if you're still telling me like this was self defense, that Hamas was in all of these buildings, residential buildings, you know, markets, bakeries, everything, then I don't know, you're insane if you still are believing that line. And here we've got body bags lined up. This is an inspirational one. Sky returns to his bombed out apartment and sets to work right away putting it back together. This woman, same thing. Clearing out the rubble, trying to reclaim some sense of, you know, normal life and dignity. And that's what I was saying. Just like the amount of resilience. These are some absolutely extraordinary people. You can see the earth movers here cleaning out the rubble, trying to make the roads more accessible for people. Here we have Palestinian twins who are reunited, who are just embracing each other, tearfully hugging, just overjoyed to be able to see each other again. There was a video we didn't include in the montage, but one that really particularly got me. Cause I love cats. Of a little boy holding his little kitty. Simba happens to look exactly like my cat Salem. That many will, I thought that will have seen.

Krystal Ball (12:30)

I thought that.

Saagar Enjeti (12:31)

Yeah, big boy. He was a big boy like Salem. And he's holding and he's like, Simba and I are gonna get to go back and we're gonna get to play together and like just, you know, live life. And it's what we have robbed. I mean, we have robbed two years of the. The children who managed to survive. We have robbed them of two years of their childhood. I mean, just endless trauma and suffering and, you know, lack of food and Lack of medical care. The largest amputee population of children in the world. You know, the family members that have been lost. You cannot possibly imagine what these little kids have been through, what they have seen and experienced things that most of us. That no human should ever have to. And that most of us will never see in an entire lifetime.

Krystal Ball (13:18)

The kids are just normal kid stuff, like playing with your cat, being excited to play with your cat because you don't have to worry about just the incredible. You know, this is the other thing. It's like these kids, if you're five years old, I mean, so much of your life has been consumed in these formative years by.

Saagar Enjeti (13:34)

This is all, you know, a raging war.

Krystal Ball (13:36)

Yeah, it's all, you know, so this is a generation. And the very reason that some people on the Israeli far right and the American far right are unhappy with this deal is the very reason that continuing the war all along without other plans was. I mean, it just the idea that Hamas has been eradicated. It's the exact same reason why the Israeli far right is upset about the deal, because they're like, well, Hamas will just reconstitute. And it's like, well, yep, yep.

Saagar Enjeti (14:08)

Some of us have been saying from the beginning, yep.

Krystal Ball (14:10)

And these.

Saagar Enjeti (14:10)

This was never a goal that was achievable and would just be used for immiserating the entire population.

Krystal Ball (14:16)

And none of these. So these kids, none of whom did anything wrong, they're five, they're six. They now have a situation where Hamas is probably, in the long term, going to be Hamas or whatever comes after Hamas is going to be more powerful. And these little kids grow up in that world. Not only do they grow up in the world where they were raised in these years of abject destruction, literal rubble and starvation, but then their future is actually probably darker in the long run. I just don't see any other way. I mean, listen, I think I'm really hopeful. I think this is the best version of. It's probably, well, Tony Blair aside, but just actually having the framework of a deal, I don't think Joe Biden could have done it. I don't think Kamala Harris could have done it. I don't, love.

Saagar Enjeti (15:05)

Well, they could have.

Krystal Ball (15:06)

Well, they could have done a lot of things.

Saagar Enjeti (15:08)

It was not hard to achieve. What changed is the politics. Yeah, I genuinely believe. I don't even think it was the politics. Ryan said this, and I think this is right. Like, Israel bombed Trump's money in Qatar. Like, they. When they bombed Qatar and the, you know, they came to Trump and were like, these people are out of control. Like you are invested, like you are making money here. And they're bombing that. And they failed. They were trying to kill the Palestinian negotiators and they failed. So Israel was trying to make it impossible to have any sort of negotiation in the near term. Now there would have been new negotiators and down the line, et cetera, et cetera. But that's what they were trying to achieve. They failed to achieve that. And they pissed off Trump by threatening what he cares about most, which is his money. And I think that's what changed the dynamics. But it was not hard to achieve this deal. All he had to do was decide, no, you're done. And you know, and that's the risk is there is no doubt we could put D3 up on the screen. Like there's no doubt. Netanyahu has said that. He says we've achieved tremendous victories. The campaign is not over. Part of our enemies are trying to recover. Like when they see Hamas back in operation, which is already starting to happen, he's gonna be making a push for, you know, to break the ceasefire and to pull out of this deal and to go forward with the new military operation. The President of Israel has said we gotta go in and blow up the tunnels. Blowing up tunnels has always been an excuse to like murder a bunch of civilians. So they're going to be pushing and it will require Trump to hold firm and say, no, I said the war is over, you're not doing this, I'm not supporting it, we're done here, that's what will be required.

Krystal Ball (16:48)

And again, like for business reasons, I actually think, and it gives me no pleasure to say, but for business reasons, I actually think there's an argument that Trump is more likely to hold firm than another American politician would. And again, I don't think that's the ideal situation at all. But I do think that Trump sending his son in law, who has all kinds of business interests in the region, Steve Witkoff, who previously has done all kinds of business deals in the region, his friend basically plucked out of New York real estate world and put into these deals, I mean, I think that's, it's a, that is the way Trump realized a lot of the Arab world is going to trust your deals.

Saagar Enjeti (17:27)

That's the best hope.

Krystal Ball (17:29)

The best hope, right, is that he.

Saagar Enjeti (17:30)

Sees it in his financial interest to maintain the deal.

Krystal Ball (17:34)

And in some respects, like they have been screwed by like neoliberal Western deal making over the last half century. So like there's all kinds of stuff that's going on here. But all that is to say, as long as the war is over right now and these kids are going back to their lives, I mean, yes, that's great, that's wonderful. It's just the long term situation. I don't know anybody other than maybe Trump and his closest deputies who feel a lot better about that situation because, I mean, maybe I'm hopeful that's the best we can have is hope and optimism in any situation. Of course, it's just hard because it does look like Hamas is already reconstituting and long term solution is elusive.

Saagar Enjeti (18:18)

Some more good news though, we can put D4 up on the screen. GHF, the Gaza humanitarian foundation done wrapped up operations. This is one of those quote, unquote aid sites that had been constructed with those big earthen mounds. And these were the sites outside of these sites, these regular aid massacres were occurring. Some Palestinian journalists have gone in and found some of the signs of that, the spent shells and whatnot, outside of these aid sites. And there's a tacit admission in here that, number one, GHF was never necessary. Number two, it was in fact, this was obvious to all of us, but it was in fact Israel that was blocking aid from coming in. And now you have, you know, UN trucks and additional aid trucks beginning to flow into the Gaza Strip. There is an overwhelming need for all sorts of things. But, you know, you continue to have, I actually just saw yesterday one of the girls that had become known in a lot of Western media is a 12 year old girl, just died of starvation. So the need continues because once your body gets to that point, you require not just food of any sort, but you require specific specialized medical care and nutritional supplements. And so hopefully some of that is coming in as well. But you know, clearly it was always, it was always Israel blocking the amount of aid that needed to come in from coming in. And now that those blocks are lifting or easing, a lot more aid is flowing in, which is another really great thing to see. Let me put this next piece up. I'm not sure where this stands right now. D5 There were early indications that these two Palestinian doctors were not going to be released. Then I saw some indications that there were still negotiations going on and maybe they were going to be released. So that one is still a question mark for us to keep an eye on. D6 is what I referenced before. This is President Israel Katz saying Israel's great challenge after the phase of returning the hostages will be the destruction of all of Hamas's terror tunnels in Gaza directly by the IDF and through the international mechanism to be established under the leadership and supervision of the US Primary significance of implementing the agreed upon principle of demilitarizing Gaza, neutralizing Hamas of its weapons. I've instructed the IDF to prepare for carrying out that mission. So, you know, using this as a way to say, oh, well, we have to continue to operate because we have to destroy these terror tunnels. Look, you guys saw the images of Gaza at this point. If you didn't get the fricking tunnels at this point, I don't know what you've been doing, because there is, like, nothing left in the Gaza Strip. And then great reporting here from Dropsite about how on their way out, Israeli soldiers made a point of torching food homes. They also torched a critical sewage treatment plant, the last remaining really even semifunctional wastewater treatment plant in Gaza City, which of course was the main city inside of Gaza. We've got a bunch of images of this. And this was, you know, they were doing this, they were celebrating it, they were posting it. They were leaving these like, you know, fake Airbnb type reviews. And here they are torching that wastewater treatment facility, which obviously is really critically important for maintaining the sanitation and health of the population there. So, you know, not content with what they'd already done, they had to torch everything they could on their their way out as well. And then this last piece, let me go ahead and put D8 up on the screen. So there are these armed gangs that were backed by Israel, ISIS linked, by the way, armed Palestinian gangs that were backed by Israel. And, you know, now Israel's like, basically abandoned them to their fate. And. And you won't be surprised that there's a lot of Hamas taking retribution on them for their collaboration with the enemy in the context of this genocide. There's also some indications that those armed gangs continue to operate and continue to kill and harm Palestinians. So there's gonna be this low level fighting. Actually, Trump was asked about this, about some of these images of Hamas, you know, settling scores with these armed gangs and whatever. And he was like, yeah, they're allowed to do it for a time, basically.

Krystal Ball (22:50)

So it's just like what we were saying earlier. Like, it's amazing to watch people go home and realize that they're not in survival mode every single day. To the extent that people aren't right now, as you mentioned, people still are at risk of starvation, but to the extent that, you know, people are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. It's completely understandable, but it's hard to have long term hope. Last thing I want to say, Crystal, is my God, the hostage families, what they've been through the last two years, it's just unthinkable. So hopefully some relief for them. I think I forget the exact number, but mostly we're talking about bodies that have been returned. So just hopefully this is closure of a chapter and relief for all of the suffering those people have been through. I mean, and they've been, we've covered them a number of times. They've been really brave to stand up politically in the war torn or in the middle of wartime to the leader of the country under certain circumstances. So it's just been unimaginable couple of years for the hostage families.

Saagar Enjeti (24:02)

Yeah. It was interesting at the rally that Witkoff and Jared Kushner spoke at. First of all, Kushner was like you, you met the, the moment with, what do you say? Like it was incredible and your values and blah, blah, blah. And it's. Meanwhile we're looking at the pictures of the rubble. Witkoff tried to talk about Netanyahu and couldn't get his words out because Netanyahu was getting booed so aggressively by the audience there. I wanted to update. Ryan just posted that the. One of those doctors that I mentioned before is on the list of the hostages to be released by the Israel, the Palestinian hostages to be released by the Israelis. And then one final note. One of the individuals killed by those ISIS linked Israeli backed gangs was a notable journalist who, you know, I mean, it's just so heartbreaking. Salad Jeff. Frowy. I'm sure I'm butchering that name. I'm sorry guys, but he was kidnapped by gunmen working with the Israeli army. And so he made it through all of these two years of genocide only to be killed by these Israeli backed gangs that they end. So there you go.

Krystal Ball (25:07)

Such a. It's a. Just a mess obviously. And just the victory lap juxtaposed with all of that. Yeah, it's, it's a sight.

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Krystal Ball (26:55)

The.

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Krystal Ball (27:26)

Crystal let's talk about Qatar because Donald Trump is headed to literally as we as we tape this, he's headed to Egypt. He is meeting with Arab leaders and I would imagine if he talks to press, this question might come up about what's exactly going on with the Qatari air base. We're going to break down whether or not there is a Qatari air base. Let's go ahead and roll E1. This is the original announce announcement from Secretary of War, which by the way, we use Secretary of War Hygseth's preferred moniker here because Crystal, I think Secretary of War is a much more honest actual label than Secretary of Defense.

Saagar Enjeti (28:05)

It is. Yeah. And I don't want to miscabinet label him, I guess. I don't know.

Krystal Ball (28:10)

You don't want a dead cabinet name. Yes, it's important. I do think it's more honest. So here we go. This is Pete Hegseth making the original announcement.

Pete Hegseth (28:18)

And I'm also proud that today we're announcing, we're signing a letter of acceptance to build A Qatari Emiri Air force facility at the Mountain Home air base in Idaho. The location will be host to contingent of Qatari F15s and pilots to enhance our combined training, increase lethality, interoperability. It's just another example of our partnership and I hope you know your excellency that you can count on us.

Krystal Ball (28:46)

Okay, so then came a clarification Tweet. This is E2, we can put it up on the screen. Hegseth then posted on Friday, the US military has a long standing and actually he used the language quote important clarification. The US Military has a long standing partnership with Qatar, including today's announced cooperation with F15QA aircraft. However, to be clear, Qatar will not have their own base in the United States nor anything like a base. We control the existing base like we do with all partners. And actually I'm going to do something that we don't do very often. But let's roll back the original clip crystal just to compare the language. Let's play E1 again.

Pete Hegseth (29:23)

I'm also proud that today we're announcing or signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emiri Air force facility at the Mountain Home air base in Idaho. The location will be host a contingent of Qatari F15s and pilots to enhance our combined training, increased lethality, interoperability. It's just another example of our partnership and I hope, hope you know your excellency that you can count on us.

Krystal Ball (29:50)

Okay, so what he said, there is a Qatari facility at the air base.

Saagar Enjeti (29:53)

Qatari Amiri Air force facility at the air base.

Krystal Ball (29:57)

So he didn't say air base but he said air Force facility at the air base. Yeah, so it's like assistant regional manager versus assistant to the regional manager. I suppose. I'm read a little bit from the Associated press coverage here. They say when hyksosl announced Friday morning that the federal government had reached an agreement with Qatar to build a facility at an Air force base in Idaho, media posts began popping up online, blah, blah blah. But the facility being built at the Mountain Home Air Force base in Idaho isn't a separate base at all. It is a group of buildings that will be built to handle training and maintenance for Qatari troops. And the agreement with Qatar has been in the works for years. So there's a little bit of additional context here. But even in the additional context from the reporting, it says it is a group of buildings that will be built to handle training and maintenance for Qatari troops. They say in fact on signing on site training agreements with allies are common in the US The Republic of Singapore squadron had been hosted at the base since 2008. German forces trained at the Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico for decades. New facilities to train F35 fighter pilots were completed at Ebbing Air Force Base in Arkansas last year. But again, Crystal, obviously this is Qatar. It's different than. It's completely different than Germany, it's different than Singapore, different than all of that.

Saagar Enjeti (31:11)

So, yeah, it's different for Trump because they, like, give him money and stuff.

Krystal Ball (31:15)

I was just going to say it's the timing of Hegseth making that announcement that people are like, wait a second, what's going on here?

Saagar Enjeti (31:24)

Yeah, well, also, I mean, this may be another instance of why Pete Hegseth has been relegated to, like, just lecturing generals about being too fat and shaving their beards or whatever. Because we covered earlier how apparently Rubio and Stephen Miller are the ones who are actually really running the Department of War policy at this point. So, anyway, the fun part of this was Laura Loomer crashing out. We can put E3 up on the screen. She went on like a multi dozen long tweet tirade about this before the clarification. She says, never thought I'd see Republicans give terror financing Muslims from Qatar, a military base on US Soil, so they can murder Americans. By the way, that line from her, that was Trump's line back in the first administration, which again, shows you just how arbitrary, like, even the label of terror ultimately is. I mean, Syria is the perfect example of that. But in any case, she says, I don't think I'll be voting in 2026. I cannot in good conscience make any excuses for the harboring of jihadis. This is where I draw the line. We've got another one here from Laura Loomer. We can put up what the hell is going on? Why are we trying to train more Muslims how to fly planes on US Soil? Didn't we already learn our lesson? Why are we encouraging more Islamic infiltration of our country by the funders of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood? This is very bad for our national security. Qatar is one of the largest funders of Islamic terror. Now they're being rewarded by getting a Qatari air force base in Idaho. This is outrageous. We're allowing the Islamic enemy to gain so much ground in our country. I will never support this. And I mean, Loomer is just like, brazenly, outwardly, unapologetically Islamophobic, which certainly comes out in this particular message on it.

Krystal Ball (33:00)

I think she would actually describe herself?

Saagar Enjeti (33:02)

Oh, I don't think she would object to that characterization.

Krystal Ball (33:05)

No, no, I don't think actually. I don't know. I'd have to look it up, but I don't think that she would. Would be my strong assumption. But, yeah, I mean, so as the Associated Press reports, this has been like, they say it's been in the works for a while, but I think it's pretty obvious that the Trump administration's timeline here has to do with negotiations just in general. And so, yeah, it's different than Germany. It's obviously different than Germany for many reasons. But there you have it. You can see where the Laura Loomers of the world are like, hey, wait a second, wait a second. I mean, the sort of. This is going to be an interesting thing for Trump down the road because the Israel hawks, who are very supportive of Donald Trump, bitterly hate Qatar and see Qatar obviously in one way the.

Saagar Enjeti (33:54)

Way Laura Loomer does.

Krystal Ball (33:55)

Yeah, exactly. And so Trump is extremely close to the Qataris. Steve Wyckoff is extremely close to the Qataris. They're going to be instrumental in executing any. I mean, if you want this peace deal to stick and you really want Netanyahu not to go back into Gaza and make this conflict kinetic again, they're gonna need the Qataris. Probably why this was partially sealed when it was sealed. So that's gonna be a problem for him.

Saagar Enjeti (34:25)

They're the ones that gave Trump his jet.

Krystal Ball (34:28)

Yeah.

Saagar Enjeti (34:29)

Air Force One.

Krystal Ball (34:30)

Yep. And so this is gonna be a problem for Trump long into the future. Like this doesn't stop with this controversy.

Saagar Enjeti (34:36)

It's always just interesting to see what issues too are like a red line for people. You know, that's kind of funny. All of the other shit he you're cool with and then this weird Air Force partnership, whatever. That's the thing where you draw the line. So that's always fascinating to me.

Krystal Ball (34:56)

I mean, isn't the Trump Organization. I feel like they have a. It's hard to keep track of all of the deals. But I thought they were doing something in Doha. I thought they had just done something in Doha for the Trump Organization, which is led by Eric Trump, which is.

Saagar Enjeti (35:16)

Let'S see, very likely.

Krystal Ball (35:21)

Yeah, yeah. They're building a luxury golf resort.

Saagar Enjeti (35:23)

Trump Organization signed a deal with Qatar's government.

Krystal Ball (35:25)

Yes.

Saagar Enjeti (35:26)

For a luxury beachside resort. 18 hole golf course north of Doha. Value in the billions, includes villas. Has drawn ethics scrutiny from watchdogs. Call it a potential conflict of interest. G. Do you think it's like so obvious.

Krystal Ball (35:39)

G, this is Ryan's point about when does the deal happen?

Saagar Enjeti (35:44)

It's when the Israelis bomb his money in Doha.

Krystal Ball (35:48)

Trump, like a principal, if you get called into the principal's office, makes Netanyahu call his parents, like makes Netanyahu call Qatar and apologize in front of Donald Trump. I'm not speaking from experience. I never had to call my parents in the principal's office because I punched someone. That did not happen. But it's exactly what Trump was doing. That like, I'm gonna watch you tell Qatar that you're sorry.

Saagar Enjeti (36:09)

Right, well, and, yeah, exactly. And look, look, the Israelis, I mean, they had gotten away with literally everything. Nothing had been too far. I guess it's another example of like, this was your red line. But from Trump, it makes sense that this would be the issue. That would be like, nope, we're done here. But that being said, if they had pulled off the operation and successfully murdered the Palestinian negotiators, then they would have been able to forestall a deal into the future. You know, additional length of time, which was certainly their goal.

Krystal Ball (36:43)

So just final point, that golf resort deal was struck in April. So as the Trump administration was negotiating for an end to this war and the Trump administration was negotiating an end to this war, the Trump Organization was negotiating a golf resort in Qatar. And Eric Trump at the time said, at the time said, we are incredibly proud to expand the Trump brand and to Qatar through this exceptional collaboration with Qatari doctor and Darwin Global. So if you think these things are completely disconnected, if you think Jared Kushner having backing from the Saudi government, the Saudi royals, if you think these things are disconnected, I mean, obviously that is untrue. You know, there' sit's all blended together at this point. Obviously, yeah.

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Krystal Ball (39:06)

The.

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Saagar Enjeti (39:39)

Let me let you set this one up. I mean, I'll give you the bare bones. Let's put this up on the screen. From the Washington Post. So Peter Thiel, we all know and love, he gave this series of four private lectures, like two hours each. You had to agree that they were off the record and not to record, blah blah blah. Well, they got leaked. The audio got leaked. The Washington Post. So they wrote up this piece, they say inside billionaire Peter Thiel's private lectures. Warnings of the Antichrist and US Destruction. Tech billionaire, they write. Peter Thiel recently warned that Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and critics of technology, or AI, are quote, legionnaires of the Antichrist in private lectures on Christianity that connected government oversight of Silicon Valley to an apocalyptic future. In the four roughly two hour lectures which began last month, Thiel laid out his religious views to a sold out audience. Told to keep the contents off the record, according to an event listing, he argued those who propose limits on technology development not only hinder business but also threatened to usher in the destruction of the US in an era of global war, totalitarian rule, according to the recordings. Now for a guy who, you know, helped found Palantir and invested in this whole world, very convenient that he sees any sort of infringements on technological development as helping to usher in the Antichrist. And there's also, I mean There's a lot that's really noteworthy about this too. I mean, the fact that he, like, it's explicitly religious and Christian in a Silicon Valley setting where that hasn't always been the association. And I know from listening to some of the other things that he said publicly, you sent me some of the lectures that he'd given or the talks that he'd given previously that he also likes to connect it to. Okay, well, even if you're not religious, like there's a secular concern about the end of the world. You can think about nuclear weapons, you could think about climate crisis, you could think about AI. But he believes that while AI development is dangerous, that the risks of not developing AI are more dangerous and will lead you potentially down the path as legionnaires of the Antichrist to an era of totalitarian rules. So a very convenient set of beliefs for him to hold.

Krystal Ball (41:51)

Right. So Peter Thiel has started over the last year framing this in explicitly biblical Christian theological terms by focusing in on the catacomb, which is from 2nd Thessalonians. I'll get into that a little bit more. We can put F1 up on the screen. This is the Washington Post article on a sort of leaked lecture, leaks from a lecture that Thiel gave in San Francisco. But he has been doing these lectures in multiple different places. And one of the interesting parts, parts of this Post article, there's been a Wired article on some leaks that came out. You're seeing this drip into the media in recent months. He did this long interview with Ross Douthat. We're going to get into that as well. In fact, we actually already covered this too, because as you said at the top of Show Crystal, anytime someone with the power that Peter Thiel has starts talking like this, you have to pay attention. So he's saying the same thing over and over again. Every time you see a new article or a new interview, he is making the same pitch over and over again. And he's doing it as there's this kind of Christian revival happening in Silicon Valley, like a real. The vibe shift that's happening nationally. There's a real, not even an undercurrent anymore of that happening in Silicon Valley. You see it in people like Nicole Shanahan. You see it in an organization that Thiel is involved with that's bringing in a lot of powerful people in Silicon Valley. And you hear it a lot, a lot, a lot in the conversation about generative AI, large language models and that sort of thing. A pretty representative encapsulation of the Thiel argument. We can go ahead and roll F2 and then we'll do some more breakdowns.

Pete Hegseth (43:26)

I think it was Ivan Illich who said that in the time before Christ, there were many forerunners to Christ. In the time after Christ, there'll be many forerunners of the Antichrist. So in some sense it's a type. So Nero was a type of the Antichrist, or maybe Napoleon was a type of the Antichrist. And it's sort of a, you know, it's someone who aspires for world domination, creation of this sort of one world state. In some ways, Alexander the Great was sort of a pre Christ prototype of the Antichrist. It's very parallel to Christ. They both die at 33. Alexander conquers the world, Christ saves it. So it's sort of a compare and contrast. But in some sense the Antichrist as an idea is something that really comes into being in the world after Christ. And then there's a lot of things about it that are mysterious. In some ways, the Antichrist copies Christ, the Antichrist pretends to be greater than Christ, hyper Christian, ultra Christian, and then maybe only ultimately deeply, deeply anti Christian. You can think of it as a system where maybe communism is a. A one world system. So it can be an ideology or a system. And then of course, you can also think of it as Newman did, where it's sort of the final dictator of the one world state, where it's still, you stress it more as a person. You can think of it as a type, a system, a person. How does a sort of world takeover actually happen? And it's kind of not a deus ex machina, but it's like a daemonium ex machina. It's like, like the Antichrist just gives these hypnotic speeches where nobody can remember a word and then sort of just swindles people's souls out of them and they submit to this totalitarian state or something like this. And I think if we were to speculate on how to solve that plot hole, we have an answer. In the world after 1945, that people are in 1900, 1940, early 20th century people were not yet scared of apocalyptic weapons. They could not imagine anything of the scale that we'd have by the second half of the 20th century. And so the Antichrist takes over by talking about Armageddon.

Krystal Ball (45:49)

The Antichrist takes over by talking about Armageddon. Now, Ross Douthit, in his interview with Peter Thiel, which we covered earlier, picked up on what many of you are picking up on after hearing Peter Thiel say the Antichrist talks a lot about Armageddon while he's been on a year long tour talking about Armageddon. Let's roll the next clip. Wouldn't the Antichrist be like, great, you know, we're not gonna have any more technological progress. But I really like what Palantir has done so far. Right? I mean, isn't that a concern? Wouldn't that be the, you know, the irony of history would be that the man publicly worrying about the Antichrist accidentally hastens his or her arrival.

Pete Hegseth (46:29)

They're all, look, there are all these different scenarios. I obviously don't think that that's what I'm doing.

Krystal Ball (46:36)

To put it terribly, that was a pregnant pause after Ross Dawson basically asked, are you the Antichrist? Are you any of this in the mirror? Well, it's giving Antichrist well.

Saagar Enjeti (46:47)

And this is the thing. It's like, okay, if your fear is a totalitarian one world government.

Krystal Ball (46:52)

Yes.

Saagar Enjeti (46:53)

Nothing creates a possibility of that more than the technology that like a Palantir is developing. And we see this right now in our country, like part of the threat of the Trump administration's, you know, fascist tactics and goals is that the technology is there now like in a way that it wasn't after 9 11. You know, there were incredible like, like owner's restrictions, like assault on civil liberties, that was all there. But we did not have the level of tech that we have now to actually be able to sweep up all of our social media communications and give us all credit scores and put us all on the list of, oh, you don't like Trump so you might low key be a terrorist. That all exists now in a way it didn't before, in part because of, of someone like Peter Thiel. So that's one part of it that is just like glaringly obvious. And then the part that I mentioned before about how incredibly convenient it is that you would see the people who oppose any sort of restrictions on unfettered AI development as a true threat to the world. And legionnaires of the Antichrist in his language. So that's one piece of it. And then just to flesh onto Leon a little bit more of what his argument is, cause he says, okay, yeah, there's dangers of AI development, but the danger of not doing it is even more so. He believes we're in this period of stagnation and that if people aren't able to, if there isn't enough growth and people aren't able to satisfy their own material needs, then you're going to have greater peril and greater dangers. And there's a part of that that's true. And I certainly think that growth is important, et cetera. I'm not a degrowth or here. But he completely ignores the distribution of wealth, which AI is only set to further consolidate all of that growth in the hands of an already wealthy elite. And there's a complete blind spot, as is true, I would say, of a lot of libertarians, which is what he is. There's a complete blind spot around how that wealth is distributed. And the fact that the technologies you're pushing are going to make us even more wildly unequal and deny people. I mean, the goal of this tech is to make it so that human labor is basically irrelevant, so that people don't have jobs. Like, how do you think that is going to go for society? What sort of peril do you think that creates for society?

Krystal Ball (49:23)

This is the big question. I mean, a lot of the libertarians who accuse everyone else of being degrowthers say that what we need is a democratized AI marketplace where you can have small AI and big AI, big tech getting challenges from small tech. But then that's not at all what's poised to happen. What it looks like, and this is break down some of the theological stuff coming out here, because a lot of the coverage refers to Peter Thiel as like a devout Christian or dedicated Christian or something like that. And he's very eccentric. I mean, he may be devout in his own ways. He does think very deeply and often about Christianity, and he does apply a Christian framework, but his Christian framework is not orthodox, lowercase O orthodox Christianity at all. He's very inspired by Rene Girard. He's has almost a. I was gonna say Petersonian, but like Jordan Petersonian belief in the mimetic power and the mimetic roots of Christianity. Again, like this is not lowercase O orthodox Christianity at all. But I think there's an undertone here of him trying to make this argument palatable to more lowercase or O Orthodox Christians, as this more lowercase Orthodox Christianity Christian revival happens in Silicon Valley and in other places. And what he's talking about is this. So the verse of the catacomb is in Second Thessalonians, where Paul writes, don't you remember that when I was with you, I used to tell you these things? And now you know what is holding him back? Referring to the Antichrist so that he may be revealed at the proper time, for the secret power of lawlessness is already at work, but the one who now holds it back will continue to do so. Till he is taken out of the way. And so Carl Schmitt, who is infamous, very influential in like new right circles, infamous for being, becoming a Nazi, basically.

Saagar Enjeti (51:12)

And then providing a lot of the intellectual sort of architecture, like moral architecture for Nazism.

Krystal Ball (51:17)

Friend, enemy, distinction, right? Carl Schmitt read a lot into this question of the catacomb because he saw one world communism, which Peter Thiel just used that exact same phrase as the potential Antichrist. So what Ross Douthat was getting at is you say that this is holding back the Antichrist. This is that what would hold back the Antichrist would be this open marketplace of AI technology and little tech or whatever it is. Because maybe Greta Thunberg is the Antichrist, this degrowther. He seriously does that. Maybe these degrowther environmentalists are the Antichrist. Because this gets into the very famous verse from Revelation describing the Antichrist. And it is eerie. I understand why people right now have of their sort of the goosebumps when you read this because this is from Revelation. It says the beast also forced all people, great and small, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their foreheads so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name. So Revelation is really, again, it's the sort of dream prophecy and you can project a million different things onto it and you can. People take really literally certain things out of it and say, this is what's happening right now. World is ending right now. It's about to be the Rapture. Even the Rapture itself is something that you can take really literally. And not everybody believes in. But this is a very specific prophecy. They could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, receive a mark on their right hands or their foreheads. So they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark. You can again understand why people right now look at crypto potential. Tucker just had a podcast where he was talking about potential verification processes that you would have to go through once everything moves to crypto and digital currency as a literal mark to prevent you from buying or selling, unless you can verify that this is your wallet or something like that. So again, people have read this into everything over the process of industrialization. But what Thiel is pitching here is kind of what we saw as Cold War anti Communism, that communism is reflective of the Antichrist, that the Antichrist is something where you see this. So this says the second beast was given power to give breath to the image of the first beast so that the image could speak and cause all who refused to worship the image to be killed, exercise all the authority of the first beast on its behalf, and made the earth and its inhabitants worship just goes on great signs, causing fire to come down from heaven and earth in full view of the people. So this idea that there's a wonderful utopian Antichrist that speaks in ways that are very seductive to modern people and then stamps you with a mark basically where you can't buy or sell. Teal sees the catacomb as something that is holding that back. And so he is now pitching AI, which of course he's heavily invested in as the catacomb that holds back the Antichrist. And again, is it sincere? Is it a defense of his business and his worldview? I mean, Thiel is somebody who. I'm curious if you agree with this, Crystal. I think whatever you think of Peter Thiel, the man does have a very coherent libertarian ideological commitment. Like his whole career is about what he sees as this American dynamism powered by libertarianism. And I don't know if this. I've listened to just about everything he's done, both of those Peter Robinson lectures. I don't know how sincere it is. It's obviously awfully convenient. My suspicion is that he is trying to make generative AI palatable to skeptical Christians like the Tucker Carlson's of the world.

Saagar Enjeti (55:27)

Yeah, I don't know if I could say that Peter Thiel has been ideologically consistent in his libertarian values. When I see the Trump administration infringing gravely on any sort of civil liberties and JPEGs, but he's never been a civil libertarian.

Krystal Ball (55:45)

He pitches himself as a civil libertarian. That was the, the whole investment.

Saagar Enjeti (55:49)

Right. And I mean, Palantir is like directly contrary to civil liberties and J.D. vance is his guy also. He talks about how he thinks nationalism, which is, you know, anti libertarian. He thinks that's like the direction to go in. But. So I'm not sure that I could say he's been faithful to his libertarian values. But what I. And whether or not it's his genuine held view or his business, you know, or his business alignment or whatever, or those two things sort of mesh in a way that he couldn't possibly untangle them, which I think is most likely the case, I can see why he would be concerned about Christians looking at this tech, which is frightening on any number of levels, which, you know, Naomi Klein and I brought this up many times, describes as anti creation because you're basically sucking up the energy and water resources and land resources in order to create this sort of like robotic mirror world, like twisted mirror world, feeding into it all of humanity's greatest works.

Krystal Ball (56:57)

Right. Operating on inertia and not human energy.

Saagar Enjeti (57:01)

Yes. And if you read these Silicon Valley AI guys who are all about it, they are creating it is like its own religion. I mean, it is complete with its own redemption, arc and creation myths. And some of them actively see themselves as creating a kind of a God in a machine that's going to save us all. So I could see, I'm not Christian, but I could imagine some Christians looking at and being like, I'm not so sure about that. That doesn't feel right to me, in line with my religious beliefs and my teachings and my belief in humanity, et cetera. So there is very much a possibility, and this again touches some of the AI conversation we had in the first block. There really is a possibility of a sort of like pro human procreation, cross ideological alignment against this stuff, both because of what it's doing to our minds, what it's doing to our world, what it's doing to our futures, what it's doing to our job market. Those effects are already starting to be seen. What it's doing to consolidate wealth and power in the hands of a very few number of people, Peter Thiel being among them. You can imagine you have a very unique coalition coming together that includes a lot of Christians to deeply oppose that. So in that vein, just from a political perspective, as like a political operator. Oh, yeah, I understand why he's trying to make this pitch and make this appeal to this one particular community.

Krystal Ball (58:29)

And the CIA basically invests originally in Palantir because Thiel, as a civil libertarian, was pitching it as a way to surveil without infringing on civil liberties. That's what the pitch was. And that's where the CIA people don't know this has a venture capital fund. I don't even know. It sounds so crazy to say it's true. And that's where the seed money or some of the earliest big injections of capital into Palantir come from, because Thiel was able to. So that's where I think it's been consistently inconsistent. To your point, can he even disentangle these things from each other? Because he is fundamentally like, he has this idea that he can make the deep state work with civil liberties, which is not true. I mean, it's just not true. I just don't buy it. Never have.

Saagar Enjeti (59:15)

Well, a lot of libertarians think if you just take it outside of government, then it's not oppressive.

Krystal Ball (59:19)

That's exactly right. And of course, a CIA investment. This is like saying Milei with his IMF handouts. Yeah, like libertarian experiment. Like. Like these two things are not compatible. It is a spoiled experiment. Your lab conditions are imperfect. But we've all seen examples of LLMs doing extremely dark, having extremely dark consequences, saying extremely dark things, pushing other people to do extremely dark things. This is a huge question with Elon Musk, for example, how he is now using S. Elon Musk, who is flirting with becoming a Christian at Charlie Crick's memorial. And all of this creating bots that are hypersexual. This is a man who's concerned about the birth rate and is giving more people incentives for more people to just be behind their computer screen and not get out there and actually have to, you know, find other humans. Yes, exactly.

Saagar Enjeti (60:18)

Kind of a necessary ingredient for procreation, at least to this point, right?

Krystal Ball (60:21)

Yes. So Thiel is saying this is an obvious. Like, there's this Christian revival happening. Is that gonna push Silicon Valley? Because we have seen so many concerns from people who have been deeply involved in LLM world developing LLMs. Godfather of AI. How many times have you seen headlines about people who have been deeply involved in the creation of LLMs saying this technology is going to destroy humanity, it could destroy civilization. It is literally demonic is another thing that people have said who are involved in this part. So he realizes that's a problem and it's like, okay, well, maybe we can work more on this catacomb idea, the Schmidt idea, and maybe there's a case that opening up AI is what holds back the Antichrist, and hard to say if it's sincere. I've listened to him do this for hours. So I think he actually is probably sincere. But whether he's sincere because he was trying to get from point A to point B or because it was just organic, like, oh, yes, this is the catacomb is a different question.

Saagar Enjeti (61:17)

High IQ people can be very slippery because they can talk themselves into things.

Krystal Ball (61:21)

Exactly.

Saagar Enjeti (61:22)

And really convince themselves of things. And so I don't really. It doesn't really matter whether he's sincere or not. Like, the impact is the same.

Krystal Ball (61:28)

And it's not gonna work. It's not gonna work on Christian. Like most Christians. I mean, this is the fundamental battle over J.D. vance. If you listen to, like, how Nick Fuentes, for example, talks about JD Vance, there's this deep suspicion that he is an anti growth, anti creative, anti human, and he is indebted to them in some ways because Peter Thiel was so instrumental in his career.

Saagar Enjeti (61:49)

He's also just like racist and hates his Indian wife, too.

Krystal Ball (61:52)

Nick Fontas. Yeah, of course. Yes, of course. But I'm saying, speaking politically of the divide on the right now, it's even with Trump, he becomes fully pro crypto after being anti crypto. This is the signature divide on the right and Peter Thiel is recognizing it before other people are. It's anti human versus pro humanity.

Saagar Enjeti (62:09)

In basically, where does Marjorie Taylor Greene fit into that?

Krystal Ball (62:12)

I'm sure she's anti teal at this point. I'm sure she would be against all of this. And I don't know, but we should ask her. Come on the show. Come on, let's go.

Saagar Enjeti (62:24)

Yeah, I wonder, has she said, what has she said about crypto? Is she a crypto?

Krystal Ball (62:27)

She is very worried about crypto. She actually was against the crypto bills because of them creating a the ones that over the summer because of them creating a digital currency, which is a good reason to be frightened about crypto.

Saagar Enjeti (62:44)

Interesting. All right, Well, I learned a lot from that. Emily, thank you for breaking all of that down for me and thank you guys so much for watching supporting the show. We're going to go do our AMA live. If you want to take part in those in the future, sign up@breakingpoints.com and Sagar and I will see you back here tomorrow.

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Krystal Ball (63:58)

This is Bone Yang from Las Culturistas. And I'm Matt Rogers, also a host of Las Culturistas. Big news to share. Do you know what the perfect thing to bring to any party is? But when we talked about this, I'm a person, not a thing. Oh, I didn't mean you. I meant Casamigos. Okay, Chic. And honestly, the only other correct answer, a casamigos Margarita. That's a sleigh. Ah, Casamigos. Anything is a sleigh. Because anything goes with my Casamigos. Anything goes with my Casamigos. Beau, you're a poet. Please drink responsibly. Imported by Casamigos Spirits Company, White Plains, New York. Casamigos Tequila. 40% alcohol by volume. This is an I heart podcast.