10/9/25: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Explained, Travel Delays Amid Gov Shutdown

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: October 9, 2025 — Gaza Ceasefire Deal Explained, Travel Delays Amid Gov Shutdown

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Main Theme & Episode Overview

In this episode, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti provide a deep dive into two headline-grabbing developments: the new ceasefire deal in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian factions, and the wide-ranging fallout from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, including its impact on travel and healthcare. The show features detailed analysis with guest Jeremy Scahill, who brings extensive knowledge of Middle East dynamics and the ceasefire’s behind-the-scenes developments.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Gaza Ceasefire Deal: Content, Consequences, and Reactions

[05:28–36:34]

a. The Deal’s Fundamentals

• Structure: The deal centers on releasing all Israeli hostages in exchange for a mass release of Palestinian prisoners, partial Israeli military withdrawal (about 70% of Gaza), with 30% remaining under occupation, and significant humanitarian aid provision.

• Withdrawal: Israel is not required to fully withdraw from Gaza at any phase of the deal as currently outlined.

• Phases: This is just “Phase One.” There is skepticism over whether subsequent phases (including disarmament or further withdrawal) will ever materialize.

  “The entire ‘peace deal’ as envisioned does not require Israel to completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip at any point. So that is...an extraordinary concession on the part of the Palestinians.” — Krystal (06:40)

b. Hostage Exchange & Humanitarian Context

• All Israeli hostages and the bodies of the deceased would be returned; in exchange, thousands of Palestinians—mostly women and children arrested post-October 7th—would be released.

• The Rafah crossing into Egypt will reopen, allowing crucial aid.

  “Any progress whatsoever is great, in particular in releasing the hostages as well as just ending the hostilities in the immediate term.” — Saagar (08:14)

c. Political Realities and Risks

• Israeli internal politics remain volatile; the deal still needs Cabinet approval, and previous agreements have collapsed after initial steps.

• For years, the official war aim was hostages’ release and destruction of Hamas—neither achieved militarily, now being brokered diplomatically.

  “This deal really validates so much of the criticism of this near two year long war, because for the entire war, the purpose has been release the hostages. And now the vast majority...will have been released through a diplomatic solution, not through military means.” — Saagar (10:41)

d. Palestinian Perspective

• Guest Jeremy Scahill details major Palestinian concessions but says “core red lines” around the right to armed self-defense remain intact.

• Skepticism abounds about Donald Trump and Netanyahu’s reliability, with fears the process could devolve into endless negotiations or worse.

  “They realize we just have to take a risk and trust Donald Trump...they know that's a huge risk. They recognize that he's erratic.” — Jeremy Scahill (21:14)

e. International Mediators & Prospects

• Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey played key mediation roles; their continued engagement is crucial should Israel breach the deal.

• There’s debate over who will represent Palestinians in the next governance phase—whether Hamas, the unpopular PA President Mahmoud Abbas, or another coalition.

  “Palestine consists of a diverse array of political parties that...want Palestinian independence, but they have disputes among themselves. So who is going to serve on any kind of an interim committee of independent technocrats is one issue.” — Jeremy Scahill (25:32)

f. What Broke Trump’s Resistance?

• Scahill theorizes that Israeli military stalemate, global and domestic opposition, and Trump’s personal ambitions (even, perhaps, Nobel Peace Prize hopes) led to his decision to force Israel’s hand.

  “I think Trump genuinely wants the Nobel Peace Prize...He really thinks he can do this thing and make like the grandest of grand business deals.” — Jeremy Scahill (31:12)

g. Reactions from Gaza

• There are scenes of celebration but also immense grief due to massive losses, especially among journalists and civilians.

  “Message after message from Palestinian friends in Gaza, just saying, praise God that this is going to end...but also a sense of immense sorrow for all of the loved ones who have been lost.” — Jeremy Scahill (32:30)

h. Future Risks

• The deal’s long-term success depends on continued American pressure on Israel and on Trump’s unpredictable follow-through. Other regional powers may re-evaluate ties with the U.S., depending on how this arrangement plays out.

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2. U.S. Government Shutdown: Political Stakes and Real-World Fallout

[39:04–54:58]

a. Status Update

• The shutdown continues with little movement toward resolution despite some expectations of mass layoffs or dramatic government restructuring, neither of which has occurred yet.

  “For all the pre-shutdown bluster...we have not seen mass layoffs, we have not seen massive restructuring of the government.” — Krystal (39:04)

b. Political Calculations

• The Trump administration has lost enthusiasm for deep cuts, recognizing they would bear the brunt of service failures.

• Legal constraints also limit the administration’s ability to lay off government workers during a shutdown.

• Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to pass a standalone bill to pay military service members, a break with past practice—meaning troops will miss paychecks if the shutdown drags on.

  “Typically in a shutdown, there's a separate standalone bill...He's saying, I'm not gonna budge on that...[by] October 15th, people are gonna start missing paychecks. That’s just a few days away.” — Krystal (45:12)

c. Democratic Messaging Success

• Democrats are seizing the moment, especially on healthcare, highlighting how the GOP’s plans will end ACA (Obamacare) subsidies and drive premiums up—disproportionately impacting red-state voters.

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s forceful speech underscores the Democratic stance.

  “No way. It's literally life or death. We will not let Republicans blow up our health care system.” — Chuck Schumer (46:29)

d. Economic and Social Ripple Effects

• The impacts are growing: delays in air travel due to air traffic controller shortages, backlogs at the IRS (affecting tax returns), and significant economic drag as federal workers go unpaid.

  “Travel delay is one of those things. I think it's something like 40 million people fly around the Thanksgiving holiday season...that could be directly affected by this.” — Saagar (49:11)

e. Partisan Dynamics

• The Republican base seems less energized about the shutdown, while Democrats are unified and confident.

• The structure of ACA subsidies expansion—doubled during Biden—means millions more, particularly in red states, rely on premium assistance.

  “So now you have some roughly 24 million people who are getting their health insurance through these exchanges who will be impacted if these subsidies are not expanded...The big dynamic is those red states that did not expand the Medicaid.” — Krystal (54:02)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Role:

  • “America can stop this at any point that they possibly want to. And that's exactly what happened.” — Saagar (10:58)
  • “If Trump had just been committed to his original first agreement...they never would have gone back to the genocide after he took office.” — Krystal (11:20)

• On Palestinian Concerns:

  • “It's a big gamble to trust Trump. And these Palestinian negotiators could either in the end be looked at as having engaged in a genius risk move, or they could end up looking like fools.” — Jeremy Scahill (22:25)

• On the Nature of the Deal:

  • “On paper, the Trump plan is very bad for the Palestinian people. These negotiations are being viewed as a decisive Crossroad in the 77 year history of this major battle since Israel was imposed on the region and the Nakba began.” — Jeremy Scahill (28:40)

• On U.S. Political Messaging:

  • “Obamacare has exploded under Biden. The number of people in the exchanges and that benefit from these subsidies…more than doubled.” — Krystal (54:07)

• On Demographics & Irony:

  • “Those people are overwhelmingly in red states. So Republicans know that they have an issue with this…” — Krystal (51:30)
  • “This does not seem to me a core issue for a lot of the [GOP] base. It doesn't seem to be something that's, like, dominating Fox News.” — Saagar (52:36)

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Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |------------|-----------------------------------------------| | 05:28-13:00| Gaza ceasefire: news, details, initial analysis| | 13:00-14:00| Trump’s statement and transition to Scahill | | 16:09-36:34| Jeremy Scahill deep-dive on ceasefire framework| | 39:04-50:01| U.S. Government shutdown: update & politics | | 50:01-56:10| Travel delays, tax impacts, ACA, polling |

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Tone and Language

The conversation is frank, nuanced, and emotionally engaged. Krystal and Saagar maintain their signature anti-establishment viewpoint, challenging government narratives and emphasizing the real-life impact on ordinary people. The discussion with Jeremy Scahill is substantive, with careful acknowledgment of Palestinian suffering and political landmines for all sides.

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Conclusion

This episode delivers authoritative analysis on the historic Gaza ceasefire—its terms, risks, and broader implications—augmented by Jeremy Scahill's deep reporting. It also offers a timely breakdown of how the U.S. government shutdown is reshaping policy, politics, and everyday life, especially as it intersects with health care, travel, and partisan messaging. For listeners seeking balanced, detailed, and thought-provoking coverage, this installment is essential.

Transcript

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[A]

Moves Easy Choice hey guys, Sager and Krystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

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[E]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?

[A]

Indeed we do. Looks like we have some sort of an Israel Gaza deal present heading to the Middle East. Jeremy Scahl is going to join us to break down everything we know about that. So of course very lucky to be joined by him since he has all of the details. Probably knows more about this than literally anyone else that we could possibly get. Shutdown continues. What's going on there? How are things looking? We'll give you an update. I'm beginning to warm a little bit on the Democrats health care strategy seems to be paying some dividends to them. But we can discuss Trump is threatening to arrest JB Pritzker and also the mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson. There's also some major court cases going on there that we need to update you on. We have an alleged arsonist who was arrested, allegedly committed that, or started that Palisades fire. Some extraordinary details there. You know, originally the thought was just basically climate change or a lightning strike or something like that. Now the government is saying that this guy was part of starting these horrific fires, incredible damage, loss of life, et cetera. So that's a very important one to get to. Gold is hitting new heights. Never a great sign. And Matt Gaetz is spilling the tea on his AIPAC experiences.

[E]

He is indeed. Thank you to everybody who's been supporting us. BreakingPoints.com if you are able to sign up as a premium subscriber and if you can't afford it, no worries. Just please go ahead and hit subscribe on our YouTube channel. And if you're listening to this on a podcast, please please go ahead and rate us 5 stars or send your favorite episode to a friend. Now, before we begin, I do have to issue a correction to something that I said on our Tuesday show. Guys, let's go ahead and put this up here on the screen. I previously in our October 7th show said that Olivia Rheingold, who works over at the Free Press, had not written a story before that was incorrect. Turns out she actually has. When I had said it, I actually had looked for some of her previous work on the Politico website. I asked ChatGPT and other aggregators to find them. They were unable to. It was an honest mistake. Nonetheless, I will read her statement here in full. She says, quote, hi E. Sagar, I caught a snippet of your recent segment correcting two things. Quote she never wrote a effing story. You said on yesterday's show. Allow me to direct you to two, including one that appeared on the top of the Politico homepage on election day 2020. QUOTE I was previously a podcast producer and radio reporter. This is my first writing job. I worked nights and weekends to write those stories on top of my podcast producing duties. I also wanted to share my B for The Free Press. I think you mentioned it overstated my print experience. I did not say that, but nonetheless, quote, I hope you find it more transparent upon closer read her full bio reads. Olivia Rheingold is a staff writer at the Free Press. She co created, executive produced Matt Iglesias podcast Bad Takes. She got her stare in public radio, regularly appearing on NPR for reporting on indigenous communities in Montana. Previously worked produced podcasts at Politico where she shaped conversation with world leaders like Jens Stoltenberg. I have won a regional award from the Associated Press for my reporting on opioid clinics in rural Georgia. Graduated with honors at Columbia Journalism School. All good. But I would appreciate if you could please do what you can to make your audience aware of these facts. And so please, audience, be aware of these facts. I regret the error. I apologize for it as well. And so with that, we can go ahead and get into the show.

[A]

Indeed. So, big news yesterday. Of course, we've been tracking the possibility of a deal being struck between Israel and Hamas and the other Palestinian facts. Yesterday, President Trump received a note during this antifa roundtable situation. We'll talk about that more later in the show indicating that such a deal was on the verge of being consummated. Let's go ahead and take a look at that moment. Criminal conspiracy.

[F]

Okay, I'm just giving, yeah, I was just given a note by the Secretary.

[A]

Of State saying that we're very close.

[F]

To a deal in the Middle east and they're gonna need me pretty quickly.

[A]

So he says they're pretty close to a deal. They're gonna need me quickly. I believe, Sagar, that photographers were able to zoom in on that and it said basically, we need you to approve a truth social post so that you can be the first to announce it. We'll let Jeremy lay out all of the details here, but there are some similarities between the ceasefire deal that Trump was able to strike at the beginning of his term in office. In that you'll require he you'll remember that he presented this as a sort of comprehensive PE deal that would lead to some lasting settlement involving him and Tony Blair running the Gaza Strip, et cetera. From what we can tell, it appears those pieces have been pushed off, including the incredibly tricky and controversial piece of Hamas completely disarming and laying down their weapons along with other Palestinian resistance factions. It looks like predominantly what they have come to a deal on. And again, this hasn't been officially announced, so we don't have all of the details yet, but is on the hostage exchange and the lines that Israel would withdraw to. Now, the initial phase of this deal does not require Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip entirely. In fact, the entire quote, unquote, peace deal as envisioned, as presented to the American public does not require Israel to completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip at any point. So that is an obviously extraordinary concession on the part of the Palestinians that Israel continue to occupy in large part the Gaza Strip. They also would be giving up all of the Israeli hostages and the bodies that they keep. In exchange, Israel will be releasing thousands of Palestinian hostages, most of whom are individuals that they have picked up post October 7th, including all of the women and children that they have been holding as hostages would be released as part of this deal. Aid would be allowed to flow at the rates that were present during that initial cease fire during Trump's, you know, the early days of Trump being in office as well. So. So those are some of the broad strokes of what we know at this point.

[E]

Yeah, I mean, the most significant is the hostages. Of course, we're happy to see all of them come home, as well as the release of the Palestinian prisoners. They say here the IDF will withdraw from some 70% of the Gaza Strip. Of course, as you said, there's still quite a bit more to go for any sort of future negotiation. And the Rafah crossing with Egypt will actually open, as you said, for aid deliveries. First and foremost. Just want to say any progress whatsoever is great, in particular in releasing the hostages as well as just ending the hostilities in the immediate term. We actually have some video of people in Gaza celebrating that. A4, please just. We can go ahead and show everyone. This is from the streets of Gaza outside. Does that look like a hospital area? So you can see lots of people celebrating. And of course, much of the population just been decimated through this near literally two year long war now at this time. So I'm happy for them. They've been through hell. We've covered it now for over two years and it genuinely feels like almost a lifetime ago. But at the very least, some people can breathe for a period of time. Some of the hostages can come home. The Israeli hostages, they can go. And from here, there's still a lot of different ground to cover. Right. We have 30% still that will remain is occupied. I will note in all Israeli statements they are making very clear it's only phase one that we are agreeing to, which, if we'll recall, we had previous hostage releases where phase one was agreed to. We had some hostage. But then eventually, phase two was never eventually carried through this deal. Does need to go through the Israeli Cabinet. The cabinet has made many statements, previous elements of the Netanyahu coalition, they will not agree to a withdrawal of the Gaza Strip. So we'll see very clearly what they actually agree to, what the internal strife politics of Israel will look like. But I think, finally, I think it's important to say, bring Jeremiah in. I think that this deal really validates so much of the criticism of this near two year long war, because for the entire war, the purpose has been release the hostages. And now the vast majority of the hostages will have been released through a diplomatic solution, the absolute vast majority, not through military means. The other one is that they said that they were doing it to destroy Hamas. If phase two is carried through, it is a tacit admission of failure. Because in that phase two deal, part of the framework is that all remaining Hamas fighters will have to lay down their weapons, but they will receive amnesty. And so you didn't accomplish really either of those goals. You did cause a tremendous amount of human suffering. And then finally, on the American side, just from ours, this is the most validating thing. Where Israeli critics would often say, America can't just force Israel to do a deal. Yes, we can. It just happened. I don't know why. I don't know why Trump finally broke, you know, I hope some reporting and all that eventually does come out. But eventually it all just became too much. And he snapped at him. He forced him to read an apology to the Qatari prime minister. And he said, we're done. We're done. This could have happened under Biden. It could have happened in the interim, nine months. A lot of lives, A lot of lives could have been saved. We're glad to see it now. But it does show you that America always had the cards. It validates all the critics who always said, America can stop this at any point that they possibly want to. And that's exactly what happened.

[A]

That's right. And if Trump had just been committed to his original first agreement, you know, they never would have gone back to the genocide after he took office. He sort of just allowed them to breach the cease fire and to never be serious. From the beginning with that deal, we covered the fact that Netanyahu was broadcasting to his own public. I have no intention of going past this initial phase. So the only thing, and we said this at the time, that could have kept them in that original deal is if Trump had forced the issue. He didn't. And so the same questions remain. Now it will be up to Donald Trump, Trump to decide whether he is going to keep his eye on the ball with this thing, whether he's actually committed to moving beyond this initial phase of hostage exchange and relief and, you know, a temporary ceasefire to actually strike some sort of a lasting deal. And you know, listen, we should not sugarcoat it. This is a horrible deal. It's a horrible deal for Palestinians. There's no doubt about it. However, these people have been bombed, starved, tortured, tormented, surveilled, displaced God knows how many times. So many of them just want to be able to survive, just want anything to make the bloodshed stop. And last thing before we bring Jeremy. And it's also worth noting that, you know, in the waning hours right now before the ceasefire deal is officially struck and the vote goes through the Israeli Knesset and Trump travels the Middle east, et cetera, and Israel took the opportunity to ramp up the bombing in Gaza City overnight. So, you know, they continue to bomb and torment here to the last moment.

[E]

Yeah. And did we read a three, please, just to give everybody the full announcement here, this is from the president last night. Quote I am very proud to announce Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first phase of our peace plan. This means all of the hostages will be released very soon and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agreed upon line. As the first steps toward a strong, durable and everlasting peace. All parties will be treated fairly. This is a great day for the Arab and Muslim world, Israel, all surrounding nations and United States of America. We thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey who worked with us to make this historic and unprecedented event happen. Quote Blessed are the peacemakers. Donald J. Trump, as you said, he will be traveling there to the Middle East. But why don't we go ahead and bring Jeremy in to get his analysis. In particular, just really interested about what eventually brought Hamas here to the table. A lot of assurance here, assurances apparently from them from President Trump. So very curious to see what that looks like and what they see the future of some sort of deal is going to be. Let's get to Jeremy.

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[A]

Ugh. Come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

[B]

Still using yesterday's tech upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 carbon ultralight. Ultra powerful and built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance that keeps up with your business, not the other way around.

[A]

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[B]

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[E]

Joining us now is the co founder of Dropsite News, great friend of the show, Jeremy Scahill. It's good to see you Jeremy. Thanks for joining us.

[F]

Good to be back Jeremy.

[E]

You might as well be a regular here on the show and at this time you certainly are. So we have major breaking news guys. We can go ahead and put a two up here on the screen. Jeremy's immediate analysis. Hamas and Palestinian factions have agreed to the Gaza ceasefire. Trump confirms a deal was reached. So Jeremy, give us some of your immediate reaction to the framework of the deal. We noted in our introduction that everyone is emphasizing phase one. What exactly does that mean? Why did Hamas agree to the deal and what can we expect in the future?

[F]

Yeah, Hamas really came to what they felt was a realistic conclusion that the only path to a diplomatic resolution of this war, the only way to end this genocide without fighting Israel to a stalemate and forcing them to withdraw, the only path to that was through Donald Trump. And so the Palestinian negotiators from Hamas and Islamic Jihad consulted with all these other Palestinian factions and they embarked on a mission to try to negotiate as ferociously as they could to try to hold the red line on what they felt were issues that would dramatically impact the very existence of the Palestinian struggle for self determination, national liberation and statehood. They did make some major concessions. They had insisted for months since Israel blew up that original January ceasefire deal, that they were not going to release any more Israeli captives unless there was a firm commitment and a timeline for total withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces. Now, what they have agreed to is that after they return the 20 living Israeli captives, and they haven't located yet, I understand, all of the bodies of deceased Israeli captives, but that is sort of being deferred. But once they hand those 20 Israeli captives over, there is going to be an Israeli pullback that I am told is pretty much in line with the map that Donald Trump released as part of his 20 point plan. It's not that big of an Israeli troop withdrawal. They're going to get a very large number of Palestinians that are going to be freed from prison during this exchange. As we're speaking right now, negotiations are still going on even though they both sides have said that they're going to accept this deal. There's a major battle going on over which Palestinian prisoners are going to be released by Israel. Hamas is saying that they want some of the most high profile Palestinian political prisoners freed. Marwan Barghouti, who many believe would be the logical and popular choice for president of an independent Palestine, he's serving five life sentences right now. He's not even from Hamas. He's from Fatah, the political opponent party of Hamas. Ahmed Sadat, who is from the pflp, the left wing Marxist party in Palestine. He's serving multiple life sentences. Abdullah Barghouti, who was a Qassam Brigade's commander in the west bank, they want these guys out. A major point of their attack on October 7 was to free Palestinian prisoners. There's also a question of whether Palestinian fighters who participated in the October 7th attacks are going to be released as part of this deal. Israel does not want to release them. So there is still fighting going on. But the basic architecture of this is they release all of the Israeli captives. There's a large number of Palestinian captives that are going to be freed. A ceasefire is in the process of taking hold right now. Israel is not going to fully withdraw. They're going to pull back to lines that that President Donald Trump had wanted. Aid is going to be resumed at levels that are similar or equal to the January ceasefire deal, which is around 600 trucks. Significantly, for the Palestinian side, the Rafah border crossing is going to be opened in both directions. According to the deal. Israel is not necessarily going to be pulling out of that area, but the crossing is going to be open. The maps that Trump put out show the Israelis still firmly entrenched in the south, but you're going to have equipment that's supposed to start coming in to clear rubble. Gaza humanitarian foundation is done is what I'm told that the Palestinian negotiators were assured that they are no longer going to be operating inside of Gaza. What Israel did not get out of this first phase were huge things that Israel had demanded. Hamas is not agreeing to any disarmament or demilitarization. Donald Trump has been clear that Palestinians are not going to be expelled from Gaza. They deferred all of the major questions about governance in Gaza going forward. Trump's 20 point plan had sweeping ideas for this. Now, it doesn't mean they're going away. It means that they were able to achieve a ceasefire and freedom for many, many Palestinian captives without giving up what they had said is their ultimate red line. And that is that Palestinians have the right to armed self defense against Israeli occupation.

[A]

Jeremy, what are the areas that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and any other factions that were involved in these discussions, what are the things they're most nervous about in accepting this deal?

[F]

Well, you know, look, Mousa Abu Marzouk, who's one of the longest members of Hamas, I spoke to him this week and he said it all boiled down to, we realize we just have to take a risk and trust Donald Trump. And they know that that's a huge risk. They recognize that he's erratic. They recognize that he said he was engaging in diplomatic negotiations with Iran and then used that as cover to bomb them. So on the one hand, you know, they're nervous because Donald Trump can flip the script and say one thing on Tuesday and another thing on Wednesday. That's a major concern. But even more than the Donald Trump risk that they're taking, it's the wild card of Benjamin Netanyahu. This man has a PhD in violating ceasefires. He has maintained that Israel is really not going to end its war, that it's going to continue on until it achieves all of its goals of total victory. And let's be clear, you know, Netanyahu really does want to eliminate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. So there is concern on the one hand, and I think it's, you know, this would be the extreme scenario that this is sort of a trick, a setup, that once they give all of their leverage back, which is the Israeli captives, that Trump will allow Netanyahu to somehow justify continuing the genocide. You know, that is the, you know, that would be the most extreme concern. But I think on a more practical level, the fear is that they hand over all of these captives. They do have aid that comes in, which everyone wants, they have an end to the massive bombing campaign. But then Israel goes into a stage of constantly so called mowing the lawn that they're regularly striking in Gaza, that the second and third phases of negotiations start to go nowhere, world attention starts turning away, and then Netanyahu is able to sort of set Israel up to continue on with its maximalist agenda of a war of annihilation. I think those are the biggest concerns. You know, look, one, one source that I talked to who's very close to the Palestinian negotiating team said, you know, it is a big gamble to trust Trump. And these Palestinian negotiators could either in the end be looked at as having engaged in a genius risk move, or they could end up looking like fools. You know, in the broader, epic historical sense, I think a lot of Palestinians fear that this could then transform into some kind of Oslo process where, you know, it's just a kind of slow death or killing of all of these Palestinian aspirations and it gets mired in endless negotiations. And I think that's the longer term fear. But there's Palestinian sources I'm talking to are saying that they feel that they made big concessions in the name of their people, but that they have not conceded any of their core red lines. Now, you know, Israel, of course, is not happy if Donald Trump does enforce this in the way that he's going to, and you're going to see a big fight on the part of the Israelis. To try to roll back some of the rhetoric from, from Donald Trump about this final note, I'll just say is it was interesting last night when Trump sort of candidly was, you know, was, was preparing the public for a deal that was coming down the pipeline. You know, he said, oh, we have really good negotiators. And he said an unfort. Unfortunately, they have really good negotiators on the other side too. And he was referring not only to the Palestinians, but talking about some of these Arab countries. And I think it's a risk that the Palestinians are taking because they're going to have to hope that Egypt and Qatar and Turkey and other Islamic countries that are involved with this are not going to just sit by passively and that if Israel does start violating the terms of the agreement, that their word is going to matter with Donald Trump. Those are very big questions up in the air right now.

[E]

Yeah, that was really my question here about phase two, or whatever you want to call it, Jeremy, about this eventual coalitional provisional type authority over Palestine. How is Hamas viewing that process? Is it something that they want to address in the future? Do they have confidence in it? What's their view there?

[F]

I mean, I'm told that what the American mediators, or the Americans, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told these delegations last night is that they want to immediately go into those negotiations that Donald Trump really want. He doesn't want a delay in it. That creates a complicated situation, because at that point, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have given up all of their captives, and the plan says that Hamas is going to relinquish authority in Gaza. They've told me numerous times that they want to do that. The question then becomes, what Palestinians are they negotiating with? Is there going to be an increased role for Mahmoud Abbas, the. The unpopular president of the Palestinian Authority, who is going to be empowered to make a deal on behalf of the Palestinians? This is not as simple as Donald Trump and his people have made it out to be. Palestine consists of a diverse array of political parties that are united under one large umbrella, that they want Palestinian independence, but they have disputes among themselves. So who is gonna serve on any kind of an interim committee of independent technocrats is one issue. The other issue is, is Tony Blair going to essentially be in charge of Gaza? What kind of an international force is going to go in? Is the United nations going to actually be given a legitimate role, given that the United States and Israel both have basically said they don't even recognize the United nations anymore. So there's a lot of discussion happening among Palestinian factions. And I have to say, I think there's a lot of unity, actually among those factions. So if it was a matter of the Palestinians coming up with. With who's your delegation going to be from across the political spectrum, I think they would be able to answer that within days. The issue is if Israel and the United States are going to recognize them as speaking for the Palestinian people, or they're going to try to railroad this into just a malleable creature in the form of Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas says that they would support the Palestinian Authority because they want Palestinian unity. The question is, though, if Mahmoud Abbas and his people would even be capable of making an agreement that preserves the rights of the Palestinians.

[A]

So, Jeremy, we of course previously had a different deal at the beginning of the Trump administration, similarly, a phased deal, similarly, the first phase was arrived at and then Israel violated the ceasefire. Trump didn't keep his eye on the ball, didn't, you know, didn't require Israel to stay in that deal. Do you have a sense that the dynamics are different this time, such that the result will be different?

[F]

I can't answer that question and claim to say that I know what's going to happen, Crystal, but the track records are not good of Donald Trump and Netanyahu. I mean, Trump just allowed Netanyahu to totally blow up that deal, reimpose a full spectrum blockade, resume a sustained terror bombing, invade Gaza City, try to displace a million people from the largest population center in Gaza, all while claiming that he was the president of peace. So, you know, we have to be very realistic about it. On the other hand, you know, we've talked about this before. Trump sees huge dollar signs, real estate development, all kinds of investment that would also benefit directly his family members, also possibly even Steve Witkoff's son. And I think Trump genuinely does want to cash in as much as he can with these Arab Gulf nations of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates. So, you know, capitalism at the end of the day, greed at the end of the day, ego at the end of the day. Those are unfortunately the dynamics that I think Palestinians are going to have to rely on in hoping that Trump does keep any kind of a deal in place. On paper, the Trump plan is very bad for the Palestinian people. These negotiations are being viewed as a decisive Crossroad in the 77 year history of this major battle since Israel was imposed on the region and the Nakba began. So, you know, I think the Palestinians recognize they're going into existential negotiations against an adversary that has just unfurled a neocolonialist plan for Palestine.

[E]

Jeremy, what do the Palestinians do think broke Trump and what's your own personal view? Trump has had this ability. I mean, we were talking before you came in. This does validate a lot of the criticism that we've said here on the show for two years that an American president can end this at any time that they want. And somehow, some way, Trump just came to the point where he said, no, done, we're done. It is all ending now. And of course, immediately. At least something progresses. What happened inside of either the Trump delegation, the Trump White House that caused him to force Israel here to the table Force the Bibi apology. It just seemed like a complete about face from previous US Policy of the last nine months.

[F]

I think there's a couple of dynamics. Some have to do with domestic politics in the United States, internal dynamics of Trump's movement and his base. But let's just start at the very top level. For two years, a nuclear power backed by the United States States has tried to destroy a guerrilla insurgency movement in the form of Qassam Brigades and Sarai Al Quds that largely manufacture their own weapons. And Israeli troops are still being killed. They have failed to eliminate and crush the Palestinian armed resistance. In that sense, even though Israel has succeeded in killing enormous numbers of Palestinians, they have not achieved a military victory, despite the fact that that the foe that they're fighting is engaging in guerrilla warfare, largely with homemade weapons. I think that that fact, combined with the massive outpouring of opposition to Israel around the world, combined with the fact that people within Trump's own base are starting to turn on Israel. You see the public polling, but it also applies to within his MAGA movement. And those sentiments are just growing and growing. I think he started to view this entire war as a liability. I think that he was frustrated and feeling like the Israelis just kept singing the same song. We need more weapons, we need more time. I think Trump got tired of them. I think Trump is increasingly hearing from people that he listens to. Netanyahu is bad news. And I do think Trump genuinely wants the Nobel Peace Prize. I don't think that that is just some kind of joke. I think he really thinks he can do this thing and make like the grandest of grand business deals. That's how he's talking about it. So I think it's a combination of, despite, you know, Israel matter, managing to mass murder all these Palestinians to level Gaza, they didn't achieve a military victory. The Palestinian resistance did fight them off. And so I think that it's all of those factors combined. And I think Trump basically, at the end of the day, is just like, this is getting too annoying to me to have to deal with you. And I want to take some big W's here. You know, I want to start winning again. And I think it's all those factors combined.

[A]

And lastly, Jeremy, we played this before, but I want to put it back up on the screen. A four guys, just some of the Palestinians in the street in Gaza celebrating upon news reaching them that some sort of a deal had been struck. What are you hearing? What are you seeing in terms of reaction from ordinary Palestinians, like living in Gaza who have been subjected to just horrors beyond belief that none of us could possibly imagine over these past two years.

[F]

I mean, the first thing is I just was getting message after message from Palestinian friends in Gaza, just saying, praise God that this is going to end. And then sentiments of recognizing all who have been lost. And a lot of journalists that I know in Gaza were sending videos of the most famous journalist from this Gaza war, Anas Al Sharif of Al Jazeera, who famously, the last ceasefire that was announced on live television took off his flak jacket with the word press on it and his helmet, and he really was the one that broke the news of the celebrations inside of Gaza for the world. And he was, of course, assassinated by Israel. You know, 240 plus Palestinian journalists and media workers have been murdered during this genocide. And a lot of Palestinian journalists are expressing sorrow that those heroes, those journalistic heroes are not here to see the day and to report on the day. So I think it's a mixture of immediate relief and joy, but also a sense of immense sorrow for all of. Of the loved ones who have been lost.

[E]

And then, Jeremy, what's your final assessment? You were talking there about Egypt, Turkey, all of them. What do you think that their commitment is here to some sort of deal? I know that many Palestinians were very frustrated with the way that they have diplomatically handled the situation over the last two years, although they did at least play some part in this. What is their kind of affirmation? Red line, if you will, for what the future may hold?

[F]

It's a great question. You know, I think that, you know, let's take Turkey as an example. You know, Turkey really started to get deeply involved in this in a more intense way over the last couple of weeks. And the head of Turkish intelligence made the extraordinary move of actually going and directly meeting with Hamas as they deliberated how to respond to Trump's plan. I think Erdogan is an incredibly crafty political leader who wants to be close to Trump, but also have the kind of relationship where he's able to maneuver for his own power and influence in the broader Islamic world. Turkey, of course, is between the Islamic world and broader Europe. And I think Erdogan views this as a moment for Turkey to really rise and shine by having a complicated but close relationship with Trump. I think that's true of a lot of these other Arab and Gulf nations. I think Sisi of Egypt is also very concerned about his own survival and the stability of his own government. He came to power in a coup, overthrowing A democratically elected government. I think many Egyptians are very angry at the posture Egypt has taken during this genocide. So, you know, there's, there's, there's a fifth dimensional chess game that is going on behind the scenes with all of these countries and their relationship with Donald Trump. The question is if they are actually reconfiguring their relationships with the United States or this is essentially the Trump show. That's what's gonna be very interesting to see once, once Trump is no longer president. What is the legacy of what took place here? Was it just a series of business deals that Donald Trump made? Is there going to be a totally different then relationship between the Arab Gulf countries, Turkey and the United States? Or is this a sort of new era that's coming on in the relationship between the United States and all of these countries? It's gonna boil down a lot to what happens and what Trump does with this Gaza agreement. And if Israel is allowed to just full blown resume the genocide again, I think it's going to be very difficult to sustain. I think the world is done with this. The overwhelming majority of people in the world want this done. The overwhelming majority of countries want this done. But you're asking a complicated question and I think it boils down to are they making a deal with Trump the man or Trump as the representative of the U.S. government?

[G]

Yes.

[A]

Can be very hard to tell, very difficult to parse those things. Jeremy, I feel like we've had a cheat code by being able to rely on your reporting and your analysis. It's been extremely extraordinarily valuable and we're so grateful to you for that reporting and also for joining us this morning.

[E]

Good to see you man. Thank you.

[F]

Thank you guys for the space that you've given this because, you know, sometimes we get into the weeds. But I think, you know, I think this audience that you guys have built wants to be able to make up their own minds. And the best way to do that is giving people primary source information. And I know you all have a.

[A]

Commitment to that, no doubt about it.

[E]

Thank you.

[D]

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[A]

As you guys may know, the government continues to be shut down. There does not appear to be a lot of movement towards the deal. So a little bit of signs here and there, but not a lot of movement towards a deal. We can put this up on the screen though, from Jake Sherman. This is kind of interesting. So you require you'll recall going into the shutdown, the White House was really posturing that they were going to use the shutdown as an excuse to have mass layoffs of federal government workers to exact more pain on the federal government workforce with the understanding that that would be something Democrats would be upset about and would oppose. And so far we actually haven't seen that. So Jake Sherman saying here, for all the pre shutdown bluster out of the House, we have not seen mass layoffs, we have not seen massive restructuring of the government, benefits have not been cut as Trump suggested. And Sara, I actually think it's worth kind of thinking about this a little bit because obviously this administration came in, Russell Vogt being head of the omb, you know, with a lot of ambition around Cutting the government. They have done a lot of that. I mean, some agencies, like the Department of Education even exist anymore. Really. USAID totally slash all of that. But the enthusiasm for that project seemed to have waned because there's also recognition, like, ultimately, this is your government that you guys are running. And so if it sucks and if it's unable to function, then you are going to bear some of that cost. So the idea that it would only be Democrats who would suffer and be upset if you're having these mass layoffs, I think there was some reaction, evaluation of that. And also, we'll recall, even after some of the Doge layoffs, some of the people they cut they had to bring back just in order to keep the government functioning at some sort of a basic level. And then they also didn't want to be seen, like they were just delighting and firing workers and imposing this kind of cruelty across the workforce.

[E]

Yeah, a couple of things. Number one is that, remember, hundreds of thousands of people, or at least a minimum of 100,000 people, were already gone because of the fork in the road. And there have also been some firings. But two is they're also looking at this economic data. You know, I'm increasingly clear, if you consider, you know, the local economy, let alone the national economy, the federal government is the largest employer in the United States, which means that even if you had a modest amount of layoffs, it's gonna have a significant economic impact on the entire country. Even while you have a government shutdown, there's, like, necessary government services and others that are not just going through. So all of that is gonna start to have a constraining effect, and they don't want that. So I think it's both that they'd already fired a lot of people. They already wanted to, and then when they looked at the rolls, they're like, well, guys, if we do fire these people, like the National Weather Service, for example, they're like, well, we can't cut it anymore. If we do, we're gonna get blamed for something. It's October. Like, it's literally going into hurricane season. You don't want any of that to be. You don't want any of that to come blow back on you. We're gonna talk about air traffic control already. We're seeing issues on that. But finally, really, I think this is a problem for Trump himself, where he. The biggest mistake he made is he validated the Democratic frame of the shutdown, specifically because he keeps saying, yeah, maybe we should get a deal done on healthcare We've had Marjorie Taylor Greene, who we're gonna mention here in a little bit. But Trump has dramatically undermined Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thune, who are like, we've already voted for the government. This is how it's going to get funded. And Trump is validating the framework that the Democrats have risen it on, which kind of takes away a lot of their power. That is not how it previously was in the 2018 shutdown or the 2013 shutdown. Both Obama and Trump in 2018 completely rejected the Democratic view. Here he embraces it in the very first week. Kind of takes some of the teeth away from wanting to fight it. That's why it's both a very low key shutdown, but also one where the Democrats feel more dug in ever than before. And that's not really where you want things to be nearly a week on into this because they're holding the line.

[A]

As of right now. It's also worth noting, I know these things are quaint, but there's actually, so there's been this, this public perception pushed by the White House that a shutdown would give them a freer hand to lay off workers. And in terms of the legal landscape, the opposite is actually true. There are very limited circumstances which do not really apply here that would allow you to actually lay off workers during a shutdown. So listen, not that they care all that much about the law, but that would be a hurdle. It would certainly face legal challenges as well if they were to mass lay off workers. You know, we're starting to get to the point now here, whatever day number we are at in this shutdown where you are starting to see some consequences and having to worry about things like, hey, are military service members going to get paid? You'll also recall Russ Vogt put out that memo saying, you know, we're actually not going to give furloughed workers back pay, which again is in violation of a law that was passed during the first Trump administration. In any case, this question of military service member pays has really come to the forefront in previous shutdowns. They have passed standalone measures to make sure that even if no one else is getting paid, that service members are getting paid. This time that has not happened. And Speaker Mike Johnson is saying he has no intention of bringing such standalone legislation to the floor. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

[G]

And I think it is statutory law that federal employees be paid. And that's my position. I think they should be, they should not be subjected to harm and financial dire straits because Chuck Schumer wants to play political games with regard to paying the troops. I want everybody to listen to me very carefully. Hakeem Jeffries and the House Democrats, as leaders said so well, are clamoring to get back here and have another vote, because some of them want to get on record and say they're for paying the troops. We already had that vote. It's called the C.R. we did have that vote. The House. I keep saying the House did its job. We did that almost three weeks ago. And every Democrat in the House, except one, voted against it. They voted that they did not want the troops to be paid. They did not want TSA agents to be paid. They did not want air traffic controllers, border patrol agents, and all the rest. They. They live with that vote. They made that decision. The House is done. The ball is now in the Senate's court. It does us no good to be here dithering on show votes.

[A]

So he's saying that the bill, the cr they already passed. He's saying that is the bill to pay the TR Troops. As I said before, typically in a shutdown, there's a separate standalone bill that says, okay, while we're shut down, we're still gonna pay the troops. He's saying, I'm not gonna budge on that. Democrats missed their chance to vote on paying the troops. And so you're coming up on here on October 15th. People are gonna start missing paychecks. That's just a few days away.

[E]

Yeah. It's not paying troops and specifically troop families. That is where things start to get very dicey, which is why nobody has ever done it before in a shutdown. You could look at it two ways. This is posturing ahead of some sort of negotiation for potentially caving by October 15th to make sure that paychecks grow through. I also know that the Pentagon had made. They had claimed in the past they could move funds around and they might be able to do it. But all of that obviously becomes very complicated nonetheless. You know, both sides are really digging in here, and we've already seen some of the Democrats here. I mean, they smell blood in the water because of Trump's state about health care. So they're using that to circumvent Mike Johnson and John Thune over in the Senate. Let's go ahead and play Leader Schumer's statement before, please. Let's take a listen.

[H]

So Democrats have three words for this. No way. It's literally life or death. We will not let Republicans blow up our health care system. And this isn't the first time they've tried to do this total repeal of the Obamacare bill, or the second repeal of Obamacare, or even the third. You get the point. If Republicans are consistent about anything, it's about taking away health care from as many of you as possible. Let's dive into the facts. The so called big beautiful bill, which is really a big ugly betrayal, cuts a trillion dollars from health care and causes the ACA credits to expire. Insurance premiums will go up 93% as a result. 22 million people pay more, 4 million lose coverage altogether. And even if you don't have ACA, your premiums are going up also. Bottom line, Donald Trump and the Republicans have chosen to shut down the government rather than work with us to defuse the ticking time bomb that will blow up health, health care for millions of Americans. Congressional Democrats are on the side of the American people and together we will fight to make this right.

[E]

So there you go. No effing way. He's got his little whiteboard and everything that he's pointing to.

[A]

They're trying, you know, I mean, I.

[E]

Know you're giving a lot more credit. I thought it was cringe as hell. It's very old man meets TikTok type energy.

[A]

Yeah. But you know, maybe that is the lane for him.

[E]

You think?

[A]

So embrace being this sort of like grandpa, awkward grandpa, that is who you are. And like him with the whiteboard like that, kinda, you know, I can see.

[E]

That it seems so calculated, you know, like, let's take Bernie, right? Bernie's huge on TikTok. There's no affectation for Bernie whenever he's being Bernie on his social media, you know. Cause he's been the same person for four. This is just so, to me, very, very calculated nonetheless. The statement itself, of course, right now, at least from we can see, is making inroads in the White House with MTG with a few others. And so I don't know, I really don't know where things are gonna go from here. It does seem very noteworthy that some of the effects of the shutdown are such that people are gonna start to feel it. So for example, can we put B5 up on the screen? This is just about flight delays and others in major airports across the country. This is specifically from the government shutdown of the federal. What is it? The air traffic control. And there have been previous. There have been shutdowns or delays specifically because of air traffic control in a few airports. I mean, it's October, we're going into. I mean, nobody knows how long this is going to last. The Last one lasted 35 days. 35 days from now is around the time of Thanksgiving holiday season. That is the busiest travel of the entire year, literally. And so you could see how if it were to continue in that, it could really affect the national mood on the shutdown. That's something that, I mean, I remember flying. I think it was in the last shutdown as well. And there were some minor delays because it was more early on. But it's still, it was certainly something that people felt. I know in 2013 as well, one of the most high profile things was like the shutdown of the National Park Service or the closure that was so viral. I remember at the time, this one, again, I haven't seen anything like that. But travel delay is one of those where I think it's something like 40 something million people fly around the Thanksgiving holiday season. So I mean, that's what, 1/5 or something of the entire country that would be taken to the air and could be directly affected by this.

[A]

We're coming up on fall breaks for schools, both in college and primary school. You know, that's around the corner. And you also for people who filed extensions on their taxes, those have to be in soon. And you have like nobody at the irr us to answer your questions, process your tax returns, process your refunds, et cetera. So, you know, the longer these things go on, yeah, you start to really notice an impact. And it does have an impact on the economy as well, because whether or not like, even if federal government workers do eventually get their back pay, in the meantime, they're not getting paid. And that is a massive chunk of the workforce. There's a large swath of the economy that does depend on the federal government and on federal government workers. So you're taking a hit there as well. I think Democrats feel like they have a, they feel very confident in their messaging on healthcare. There is an irony here because disproportionately the number of people who are on the, who use the ACA exchanges are actually in red states. And that's a function of the fact that there were still some, I don't know, maybe like 11 states that did not go forward with the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. And so you take that together with some of the demographic realities of red states as well, and you end up with a large amount of the ACA subsidy receivers who are going to be crushed by these skyrocketing premiums. And I mean, it's gonna be dire. We're talking thousands of dollars that their premiums are gonna go up. Those people are overwhelmingly in red states. So Republicans know that they have an issue with this thing. And their message is, well, we'll negotiate with you on that, but not right now, not as part of this. And I think people who are just, like, not political or engaging with this at all is like, well, why not just negotiate with them now on it then? Like, why not just come to the table, figure this thing out? And of course, Democrats have zero confidence that if they were to accept such a like, oh, we promise in the future, pinky promise that we're gonna negotiate on this, that they would actually come back to the table. Democrats have no confidence that that would be the case. So, you know, you've had a rash of polling coming out that says people are blaming the Republicans more than Democrats. I think Democrats feel good about that. That certainly overwhelmingly, including majorities of Republicans, think that these subsidies for the ACA should be extended. You have Trump himself indicating that he wants something to be done on healthcare. The fact that you have Marjorie Taylor Greene out here saying, come on, what are we doing? That all gives them confidence. And of course, their base really wants them to put up a fight here and not give in. So I don't know. I don't know where this thing is headed.

[E]

The other thing is, for the Republicans, I don't see people in the as activated about the shutdown. Like, this does not seem to me a core issue for a lot of the base. It doesn't seem to be something that's, like, dominating Fox News.

[A]

This is not more energy forward on the Democratic side than on the side 100%.

[E]

And that's just like the 2013 shutdown where the White House was kind of. They didn't really know how to act, but the Republican base was totally united. So it is definitely interesting seeing where things are to your point. Can we put B, please, up on the screen just to show people there's a map. You can see here where the health care subsidies under the Affordable Care act are and specifically where the new signups are from 2020 to 2025. So it is quite a lot of red states and 24 million people are relying on the exchange. So, yeah, we talked previously about that. A lot of it actually is the Republican coalition, literally, because it's like you and I are a perfect example. Small business owners, people who don't have employer sponsors sponsored healthcare. And then on the other side. So that is like the most traditional Republican base of all time, the small business guy. And Then flip it. And you also have people who largely make under $100,000 a year, predominantly who voted for the Republican Party or at least Trump in the 2024 election. And those people are much less likely to have employer sponsored healthcare work on a contract basis or something, have to purchase it on the exchange. So they're gonna be the most effective people over 100. Much, much more likely to have employer sponsored healthcare wouldn't be as affected by it.

[A]

And the big dynamic is those red states that did not expand the Medicaid.

[G]

Exactly.

[A]

And it's also worth noting here two other things that I'll say about the health care messaging. So first of all, Republicans tried to make up this talking point about like Democrats are trying to get illegals to get health care, which was a lie. But in any case, it doesn't seem to have really landed with the public. That messaging didn't really seem to stick that effectively. People were more focused on the ACA subsidies, et cetera. And, and the other piece to understand is that the number of people that use that are in the exchanges and that benefit from these subsidies and that are on some sort of ACA plan exploded under the Biden administration. It doubled, or more than doubled, depending on where you're counting from. So now you have some roughly 24 million people who are getting their health insurance through these exchanges who will be impacted if these subsidies are not expanded. And the reason that it did, you know, expand at this rapid rate is because of these subsidies, which were first put in place as part of the American Rescue plan. Was that an American Rescue act, whatever that one was, the COVID beginning of the Biden administration, and then they were extended as part of the inflation Reduction Act. So that is what drew a lot of people into these exchanges. Because suddenly it was, you know, I wouldn't call it affordable, but it was more affordable than what it had been before. So you now have a program that really touches a whole lot of people across the country, and particularly in red states. So, you know, I think, yeah, I think Democrats, between the pressure from the base, the sense they have that there are some cracks in the Republican coalition, the sense they have from polling that they're kind of winning the messaging battle at this point, you know, against the odds of Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries being terrible at messaging, I don't see them. They are not on the brink of folding. That's what I would say. They are definitely not on the brink of folding. And so the ball is in Republicans court of how far they want to push this and to see who's going to buckle first. I think they expected like we kind of did, that the Democrats would be a lot weaker need and would be looking for an out and an exit from the beginning of this thing.

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Yes, it is certainly very, very interesting.

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