← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
11/11/24: Trump Bans Nikki Haley From Admin, Tucker Rages On McConnell Coup, The View Blames Kamala Loss On Racism, Trans 2024 Importance Debate
01:08:38
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Krystal Ball
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- [01:39]
Krystal Ball
We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that. Let's get to the show. Good morning everybody. Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have? Crystal?
- [01:59]
Sagar
Indeed we do. Lots of big developments. We're going to take a look at some of the Trump Cabinet picks which are coming into view. In fact, we just got some updates last evening that we can share with you and Sagre will spend some time breaking down some of these fights within. I'll explain the Republican Party. Yeah, he can explain to me and everybody else what exactly is going on there. We also have some election updates where the Senate finally landed, where things are with regard to the House and Some interesting media reaction that we can talk about as well. Big fight breaking out between Bernie Sanders and Nancy Pelosi. She fired shots at him. He's taken some shots back. So we'll break all of that down and what it could mean for the future of the Democratic Party. We're gonna break down this pogrom hoax. Sorry, that's what it is. That is unfolded in Amsterdam. The way the media reacted, the truth of what actually unfolded, give you all of those details and also some deeply disturbing news. Statistics released from the UN that reveal at least 70% of those who have been killed in Gaza by the IDF were women and children. So we'll show you those numbers. Sagar's gonna take a look at the media and how this election unfolded and what it means going forward. And I'm gonna take a look at the pod save bros Revealing Biden had polling internally that said he was on track to lose 400 electoral college votes at a time when him and his aides were still insisting that he was the best possible candidate that Democrats could put forward. What it says about the Democratic Party and also the indications that, you know, as poor as this election went for them, things could get a lot worse. Things. If they don't change course, things could get a hell of a lot worse for them. So that's what I'm taking.
- [03:36]
Krystal Ball
I'm excited to hear that.
- [03:37]
Crystal
It is, actually.
- [03:38]
Sagar
I'm sure you are.
- [03:39]
Krystal Ball
It's just. What a beautiful statistic. 400 electoral votes.
- [03:42]
Sagar
Unbelievable.
- [03:43]
Krystal Ball
Before we get to that, just thank you so much to all of our premium subscribers. You guys made our election night possible. I mean, we had Logan here, we had our partnership with Decision Desk hq, and we're still going to be utilizing some of that in the show. And it was really amazing just to not be able to provide, like, full coverage, but also just see the way that you guys reacted to it. A big part of my monologue is actually about how many Americans, hundreds of millions or tens of millions of people, spent their night on election night, not just with us, but with other people online. And it was the lowest ratings ever for election night in mainstream media. That is literally possible because of people like you. It was our biggest week literally ever in the history of the show, downloads, views, and all of that. So just thank you to all of you. And we've got. Don't worry, we still got big things planned. 2026 is not yet upon us. I'm joking. I'm joking. We'll get there. We'll get there. In terms of 2026. No, I actually think, I think it'll be an interesting year. If we think back to it, it may be some of the most policy focused show's ever been. If we think back to the first year of the Biden administration spent a lot of time talking about bbb, about COVID vaccine mandates, et cetera, this really is traditionally the first hundred days and the first year is the real time when any of the landmark stuff usually does get passed. It happened in 2017 with Donald Trump. So if you like policy gear up, we'll definitely have a lot. We'll have a lot more room, we'll have time. We can bring in some analysts and some other people and really dig into. So I'm excited about that for the next year. So sign up breakingpoints.com if you want. It's gonna be a very different show, but a good show. You know, we'll stick with the news and in some ways, you know, honestly, that's what I prefer to talk about anyways. It's not just the damn elections all the time. So I'm excited.
- [05:19]
Sagar
Yeah, the horse race definitely sucks up a lot of oxygen. So. And listen, I mean, one thing you can say about Trump, he certainly, it'll be a lot of intrigue.
- [05:27]
Krystal Ball
He will create a lot of conflict, I'm sure.
- [05:28]
Sagar
I have no doubt there will not be a dearth of things for us to discuss here and get into exactly.
- [05:34]
Krystal Ball
Already the show is too damn full. So that's where we're at. Okay, let's. So let's start with the Trump personnel and how the transition and the cabinet is beginning to shape up. So we're starting to get some interesting signals. Put this up there on the screen. This is hands down the most important one from Donald Trump. He says, quote, I will not be inviting former Ambassador Nikki Haley or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to join the Trump administration, which is currently in formation. I very much enjoyed, appreciated working with them previously. I would like to thank them for their service to our country. Make America great again. So obviously those are two of the most prominent neocons who previously worked in the Trump administration who had not yet, I guess, denounced Donald Trump. You know, it's like there were many other much worse ones. People like John Bolton.
- [06:16]
Sagar
Yeah, we already knew Bolton wasn't coming back.
- [06:18]
Krystal Ball
Right? Bolton's not coming back. Who did he. I think he wrote in John McCain or something like that for president, according to him, in his latest CNN interview.
- [06:27]
Sagar
So he wrote in someone who was deceased.
- [06:29]
Krystal Ball
I think he might have. It was either McCain or Paul Ryan or something like that. It was ridiculous.
- [06:34]
Sagar
I didn't think of Paul Ryan.
- [06:35]
Krystal Ball
Oh, no, sorry. I'm thinking of Jonah Goldberg who wrote Paul Ryan. Very serious, intellectual, everyone should definitely spend their time listening to. Anyways, so this is important because this was a big fight in turn of the transition. There was a lot, that was a lot of ammunition against Haley. It was a lot easier because there's quite a bit of bad blood inside the Trump team over Haley in that last week of the campaign where she denounced Trump.
- [07:01]
Sagar
I don't think anyone really expected her to be in there, right?
- [07:03]
Krystal Ball
They didn't. But it was one of those where I honestly think she might have had a chance if she had not gone on TV the week before to criticize the campaign over MSG and to very publicly kind of make a bet that she thought that the campaign was gonna fail. Cause there's no reason to do that unless you thought that the campaign was gonna lose. If you did genuinely have a concern, you'd pick up the phone. Pompeo is honestly that shows a real victory, I think for the online right in particular. Cause there was a very coordinated campaign by a lot of the MAGA America first types online who were like, Mike Pompeo cannot be picked. He's somebody who he never like. He never went as far as Haley. He had little signals that he would give about how he didn't necessarily support Trump. But he attended the rallies. Trump shouted. Ben Shapiro actually gave an interview a couple of weeks ago. He's like, I have absolute assurance Mike Pompeo will be in the next administration. So that is the most high profile pick off for the neocons. I don't want to get too carried away. There's still quite a bit of people that need to get picked and we are going to get into some of this. But in terms of the most influential positions, I think we say relative confidence. These people not only are not going to be back in the admin, but being a neocon specifically, very, very, very hawkish on the outer bounds on Ukraine, that is going to be a bit of a problem. So that's one thing we can say with relative confidence. Let's move on to the next one. This was an interesting choice and announcement as well. This was the first one on November 7th. So a two please. We'll put it up there on the screen. Trump announced that Susie Wiles will be appointed the White House Chief of Staff. So Susie Wiles is very much like a kind of a non ideological, just like campaign operative. She has an interesting history, actually. So she ran the Trumpet Florida operation in 2016, then she joined Ron DeSantis campaign in 2018. But then DeSantis fired her and kind of made it created a jihad against Susie Wiles. What was.
- [08:55]
Sagar
I sort of forgot the details.
- [08:57]
Krystal Ball
I don't remember the exact details. I think there was a lot of beef around the narrow margin of victory for his campaign and whether Trump was whatever. There's a lot of personalities involved here. And so the point is, is that after DeSantis jettisoned Wiles from his campaign, she then decided to go and join the Trump and Trump. Obviously she worked for Trump back in 2020. And then from that point forward, she also had a real jihad against Ron DeSantis, her former boss. And so there's quite a bit of beef and stuff like that behind that. I would not read all that much into this in terms of ideology from those who I have spoken to. Susie Wiles is a person who is very much a behind the scenes hatchet person in terms of execution. So you're like, hey, I want this to be done. She'll be like, okay, Mr. President, sounds good. That's generally what it seems to be. She doesn't really bring a lot of her own thoughts to the table. She's very much just an organized. Make sure the flow chart and all that other stuff is working. That's how she appeared to operate on the campaign. And by all accounts, she has good rapport with Trump, enough to be like, hey, you need to cut some of this shit out now. We're also talking about Donald Trump. So it's not like anybody can control him, but people around him are very happy with. They've got a good rapport from the successful campaign. Some of you may have seen Suzy on the election night around like 2 or 3 in the morning. He was like, suzy, come up here, come take the mic. And she was like, no, I'm not taking the mic. She was like, let Chris Lacivita, the other campaign manager, take the mic.
- [10:20]
Sagar
I mean, this is a very like, you know, standard, longtime GOP apparatchik.
- [10:25]
Krystal Ball
Works for Bush.
- [10:26]
Sagar
Worked for what? McCain?
- [10:27]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [10:28]
Sagar
She, you know, was a corporate lobbyist, bunch of like pharma clients, et cetera. So that, that's, you know, she comes from a very establishment GOP background. I was just looking up what caused the split with her and DeSantis. It says they began to fracture because the speculation ranges from her taking too much credit for DeSantis victory. That would be a big problem for Trump. Speaking too freely to reporters. And another concern, she was too close to her former client, Rick Scott. And then I think apparently she also didn't get along with Casey DeSantis and his chief of staff. So there were just some, like, interpersonal issues there as well. So anyway, that seems to be the. Of the split, whatever that is, with her and desantis. Yeah, I mean, as I'm looking at all these Trump Cabinet and personnel pics or whatever, one of the things I'm thinking about is how many of these people are going to end up denouncing him leaving the White House, joining the anti Trump side. She seems like one that could be possible just because she is such a kind of standard GOP figure.
- [11:29]
Krystal Ball
Only if he humiliates her, which, by the way, is very possible. I would not say.
- [11:35]
Sagar
I think it's the only reason I.
- [11:37]
Krystal Ball
Say that she's already rode the campaign.
- [11:39]
Sagar
The only reason I say that is because we can queue up this thought and we'll come back to the element before this, the A2B. But apparently she's telling people like she's gonna keep the clown car away from Trump or whatever. It's like, good luck. You know, how many people, how many people have thought they were gonna be able to control this person, keep them on the rails, keep them from doing the most insane things, like, that's not gonna happen. So I still think that there are a lot of people who delude themselves into thinking that if they're there, they can keep things headed in whatever direction they think is productive. Here's Laura Ingraham. This is A three, I think, talking to Tulsi Gabbard about those comments from Susie Wiles.
- [12:18]
Krystal Ball
Congratulations to Susie Wiles. She is fantastic. I've so enjoyed working with her. She is a straight shooter and I'm looking forward to seeing her as Chief of staff. Well, her source was quoted as saying the clown show is basically not going to have access to the Oval Office. Essentially, I'm paraphrasing, but the word, the word clown show was used. Is that a good thing? Yeah. You know, she works very well with President Trump. I think she did. She is of great credit to winning this campaign and being able to make sure that, that the train didn't go off the rails. And so, you know, I think she's going to do a fantastic job as White House Chief of Staff. President Trump seeks counsel from those that he wants to, but Susie Wiles will provide great leadership on his behalf.
- [13:08]
Sagar
Yeah, I have to think that those comments are specifically about people like Laura Loomer, well, for whom there was like a, like, you know, fight that she waged to try to keep Laura Loomer, to remove Laura Loomer from the Trump inner orbit.
- [13:21]
Krystal Ball
It does appear that she was successful. She, after Laura made it on the plane, she was able to offer offload her from the plane. Now, you know, who knows how that will work out? Look, I tend to agree. Trump is a figure who is on the phone basically all day long to whoever he wants. And when he wants something, and especially whenever he feels like his advisors are keeping him from something, it's almost like childlike, where he's like, well, then I need to see that person, I need to elevate that person. I need to get them in here to the White House. I really saw this in the latter days during Stop the Steal, when a lot of his advisors would not give him what he wants. Then he was like, okay, I'm just gonna invite them privately or through the campaign. And they would end up in the Oval Office. A lot of these crackpots who eventually pled guilty were literally in the Oval with Sidney Powell, Mike, Linda, despite the efforts of the White House counsel, Pat Cipollone, who tried desperately to keep them out. So in general, Trump is, look, he's a seven year old man, he's gonna do whatever he wants to do. I guess the real question is how much interest that Trump even has on policy. Because if he doesn't have as much interest on policy and he just leaves it to Susie Wiles and the people who he honestly, it could be a good thing. But the other side of that is that if he does decide to intervene, it can really throw an entire wrench into the process. So look, it very much remains to be seen. Continuing on the personnel front. Let's go to the next one. A 2B, please. Trump has offered Elise Stefanik the job as US ambassador to.
- [14:44]
Sagar
Love that.
- [14:45]
Krystal Ball
The United Nations. Yeah, I mean, look, it's a coalition party, Crystal. And Pro Israel is definitely a mute part of the coalition.
- [14:51]
Sagar
I mean, that's the thing is she won this position by being the chief instigator of the campus. Antisemitic.
- [15:01]
Krystal Ball
Like, yes, the freak out.
- [15:02]
Sagar
The freak out, yes. Which makes her one of the most woke people in the coalition actually worried about microaggressions, wanting safe spaces for these students. But I mean, it says a lot that the chief qualification she has here is that she stoked this whole antisemitic panic thing and is super pro Israel. And I'm sure she'll be there at the UN to give lots of COVID to Netanyahu and back him up. So basically Israel now has as two UN representatives. Of course they already do.
- [15:30]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, they already did. But yeah, in this case, I mean, look, there's good and there's bad. Good is UN ambassador is one of the dumbest jobs in the entire United States government. You're technically part of the cabinet, but you know, whatever, you live in New York, you get to live in some fancy thing. And what's the only thing Nikki Haley did in office? This. She's raised her hand a couple of times and it's like very high profile.
- [15:49]
Sagar
Kind of like glamorous bullshit, right?
- [15:50]
Krystal Ball
But it's bullshit. You don't do anything. It's like you literally read from prescriptive remarks that the Secretary of State gives you. So you have very little power. On the other hand, you can have a lot of power, especially this time. And this is one where I am almost betting the farm that the pro Israel donors really boosted her. And the other thing to understand about Stefanik is not only did she gain a lot of. She came like more nationally prominent with this whole Israel thing, but prior to that she was a big Trump loyalist. She made her bones on the second Trump impeachment and she made her speeches for him. She went all in on defending Trump. So much so I thought she was a real contender for vice president because Trump loved her and he would always bring her to Mar A Lago. And I remember it was like 2022 or something. He's like, this lady's gonna be president. So as usual with Trump, as long as you're personally very. If you are willing to defend him, then that's the thing that matters the most. So that's one where at least Stefanik we can learn again, she's not gonna have a lot of power, but she will probably be high profile, especially with respect to anything Israel related. And this is almost 100% a big. What is it like an olive branch to the. For what they want? It could be right, hopefully in my estimation that they give it something like this to her. It's like a meaningless position, but it's something in the un but then the more important ones like Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense, you pick somebody who is gonna be less hawkish. All of that very much remains to be seen. I wanna be very, very clear about that.
- [17:18]
Sagar
Who do you think was most influential in spiking Mike Pompeo? Cause Pompeo was like traveling with Trump. At the end of the campaign, Trump was Talking him up on Joe Rogan, et cetera. Who do you think was most influential?
- [17:27]
Krystal Ball
It's Don Jr. So Junior has. It's very interesting. Junior has taken a major interest in the transition this time around. And actually, Junior, unlike most of the people around Trump, and very specifically like Jared Kushner, is ideological in a much more America first way. So, for example, if you look at his Twitter feed, Dave Smith put out a clip and he's like, let's make sure Pompeo's first. Let's keep all the neocons out. Don Jr. Was like, I'm on it. Don't worry about it. Previously, Junior was very impactful on picking JD Vance as the Vice president. He also is a major player in nuking all of the people who worked on Project 2020. One of the people who's taken a real interest in the transition. Trump and him appear to have become closer, at least, like, politically this time around. And Don Jr. Also kind of keeps his finger on the pulse culturally. In fact, I would be remiss if I didn't point this out. It's really because of Don Jr and his friendship with Dana White and UFC and all these comedians that a lot of this podcast stuff even kicked off. Don Jr. Has been at these UFC fights for years now. He's somebody who's already friends with Dana White. Cause his dad was. But he, you know, I mean, Andrew Schultz has talked about him, and Schultz were friends. He met Rogan. I mean, if you check out his Instagram feed, like, he's Tony Hinchcliffe. And all these, they're all swimming in the same ether.
- [18:42]
Sagar
So Baron was apparently influential too.
- [18:45]
Krystal Ball
Barron was more the Gen Z, the.
- [18:46]
Sagar
Aiden Ross Nug boys, those types.
- [18:48]
Krystal Ball
Exactly. But Junior is like, he's the bridge to the millennial comedians, I guess. And so I think he was probably the most influential on that and as being very influential in terms of the trans. So, you know, I take some heart in that. Because if again, if you literally just look at his own public remarks, I don't think he would deny any of this. He is somebody who is very ideological on the subject of Ukraine and also on the subject of, at least as far as I can tell, on terms of war with Iran. I mean, anybody Republican figure who's engaging with Dave Smith, I mean, we all know Dave is as legit as he gets on this subject. So that seems to be a positive indicator. But let's put the Reuters piece up on the screen. This floats some other names that are in there in terms of the Secretary Treasury Secretary. It's almost certainly gonna be some Wall street figure. Trump is obsessed with this idea that you need to have a billionaire like Wall street financier as head of the Treasury Secretary because he remembers the Reagan Times and he wants to bring some of that back. So people like John Paulson, Scott Besant.
- [19:52]
Sagar
I saw Larry Kudlow still getting a mention in here.
- [19:54]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I don't think Larry would get it just because it seems. I mean, no offense to Larry, but. But treasury sector is a real job. It's like you're not just on TV talking. You actually have to really know what you're doing and be a very high competent figure. Say what you want about Steve Mnuchin, but when time came, he actually did a pretty decent job, at least in terms of the Small Business Administration stuff. During COVID Robert Lighthizer, it appears, has been tapped as a U.S. trade representative. Lighthizer is very, very strong on tariffs. He was the architect of the Trump. Trump tariff policy. I thought, hey, he might be in charge in the running for Secretary of State, but we don't have any of that right now. But I can tell you, Lighthizer, very legit guy. Not only in the subject of China terrorists, but he designed USMCA with Mexico. Him and Trump have a very, very strong relationship. Trump strongly trusts Bob Lighthizer and actually would empower him. Usually the trade representative does not have quite a lot of power. And also the best thing for Lighthizer this time around is that Jared Kushner is not coming into the administration. And last time around, he would do all these ad hoc negotiations which would undercut him.
- [21:00]
Sagar
I saw Vivek is potential for Secretary of State. Do you buy that?
- [21:04]
Krystal Ball
It's difficult to believe simply because we're about to talk about the Senate math. I don't see it for Vivek. I just don't see how you could take somebody who is not. I'm not saying he would be a bad secretary. Actually, they'd be good. But the issue is gonna be, do you really think John Thune's gonna vote for him? Do you really think John Cornyn. Do you really think. I don't know. I'm trying to think Lisa Murkowski. I don't think Lisa Murkowski would vote for Vivek or Susan Collins.
- [21:27]
Sagar
They have a three vote. Well, first of all, I mean, they're talking about doing recess appointments anyway.
- [21:31]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, we're about to be able to.
- [21:32]
Sagar
Get people through even who wouldn't be able to garner the majority. But I don't see Vivek failing a confirmation.
- [21:41]
Krystal Ball
It would be difficult just because he's an unknown figure and these people are Washington creatures.
- [21:46]
Sagar
Somebody's gonna get who Trump wants.
- [21:47]
Krystal Ball
So somebody I spoke to yesterday said that internally that there is a real graybeard like bias for the big four. And the big four are like Secretary of Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State and Chief of Staff. And then all of those in general. Look, the average age in The Senate's like 65. Vivek is what, like 43? You know, it's like to get somebody through like that is gonna be hard.
- [22:08]
Sagar
I don't know.
- [22:09]
Krystal Ball
I mean, don't get my hopes up. I would listen. I think he would be the best.
- [22:12]
Sagar
Candidate out of all of them. But why don't we talk about the next part and then we can continue this conversation in there because it has, you know, relates to this like Senate leadership fight and all of those things.
- [22:21]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's a good point.
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- [24:06]
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- [25:07]
Krystal Ball
So let's move there to the big standard leadership fight. So there's like a big war going on right now over who should be the next GOP leader leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell is retiring and stepping down from leader. And so the three candidates are Rick Scott, John Thune and John Cornyn. So John Thune and John Cornyn are more establishment types. They were already number two and number three in the Republican conference. Rick Scott has become like a MAGA rallying cry. So let's put this up there on the screen. For example, from Tucker Carlson, the most prominent to tweet this out. He says, what the hell is going on in the US Senate? Hours after Trump wins the most conclusive mandate in 40 years, Mitch McConnell has engineered a coup against his agenda by early leadership elections. Two of the three candidates hate Trump and what he ran on. One of them, John Cornyn, is an angry liberal whose politics are indistinguishable from Liz Cheney's. The election is Wednesday. It's by secret ballot and it will determine whether or not the new administration succeeds. Rick Scott of Florida is the only candidate who agrees with Donald Trump. Call your senator and demand a public endorsement of Rick Scott. Don't let McConnell get away with it. Again. That is honestly the big question is why Rick Scott? And I gotta be honest, I don't get it at all. For example, because Rick Scott was the guy who was in charge of the Senate leadership campaign. What is it, the NRSC. He was the head of the NRC in 2022, which was a disaster. Remember, he went to the Amalfi coast on a yacht.
- [26:30]
Sagar
He put out that whole policy blueprint that called for Medicare and Social Security to be sunseted every, what, like, three years and have to be revoted, which.
- [26:39]
Krystal Ball
The Biden campaign ran on and was a huge boon. Remember, whenever Biden. Biden gave his. The only frankly good speech he gave as president, whenever he was giving his State of the Union, and he was like, oh, so you agree we're not gonna cut Social Security? Got it right.
- [26:51]
Sagar
No, it was a real outlaw. It was a layup around Republicans next.
- [26:54]
Krystal Ball
It was a huge problem.
- [26:55]
Sagar
Democrats across the country ran on that plan. Because when you have the guy who's running the Republican campaign putting out like, hey, we're gonna get rid of Medicare in a couple years, that's such a slam dunk.
- [27:04]
Krystal Ball
So everybody was furious with him.
- [27:06]
Sagar
Like political acumen, I guess we would say.
- [27:09]
Krystal Ball
I don't get it. I'm. I mean, I'm assuming there must have just been some behind the scenes deal with Trump and Rick Scott, where Rick was basically like, yes, sir, I'll do whatever you want. You know, Whereas John Thune and Cornyn. I'm not saying they won't do it, but it's just different. Like, these guys are Washington creatures. They've been in office since George W. Bush. They've seen presidents come and go. They know how to slow shit down. They know how to do things if they need to, to obfuscate or to stop things from coming to the floor. And traditionally, this is something about the Senate as an institution. Traditionally, the Senate as an institution reveres its own independence. And so what they are very. What they love more than anything is their ability to do and take as much time as they want to get what they see as important done, whether it be confirmation, legislation, et cetera. That's literally their role in the democratic process. And so it's understandable. But the Senate always chafes at presidential control. The other thing about Rex Scott is, last time I checked, and Michael Tracy flagged this. Let's put this up there on the screen. Rick Scott is a fricking Ukraine megahawk. I mean, quote from Tracy, Rick Scott has consistently denounced the administration for not arming Ukraine aggressively enough. His argument is that Biden has imposed excessive constraints on Ukraine and their ability to defeat Russia. As Tracy says. I've interviewed Scott myself multiple Times and he's never been anything but consistent on the subject. So when Mag has declared that Scott and Trump are in firm agreement, Ukraine would presumably have to be one of them. Correct. I mean, look, as usual with all these actual parsing the details is very inconvenient. But that's an important thing. You know, in terms of Ukraine. That's one of those. That Trump has made a flagship promise to end the war in Ukraine. He's spoken now with Vladimir Putin and with Zelensky. We'll maybe talk a little bit more about it tomorrow. But if he does end up approving more weapons to Ukraine and continuing this war and not bringing it to a close like he did with Afghanistan despite his promise, that would be a huge betrayal, honestly, of a lot of the promises that he made. So, open question. That Senate race is on Wednesday. It's actually by secret ballot, so that's kind of interesting. And also the battle lines are very odd. So like I'm pretty sure Josh Hawley has not supported Rick Scott this time around.
- [29:20]
Sagar
But I mean anytime in one of these bodies you're gonna have things that are non ideological that are just like personal beefs. Yeah, there's so and so didn't respond to so you know, I mean, so you just don't know who's, who's done a better job like making friends and being nicey nice.
- [29:34]
Krystal Ball
Well, see, that's one reason I think Rick Scott may have a problem is he pissed a lot of people off last time because he ran against McConnell. Yes, he's not particularly popular, at least as I understand it within the conference. You know, Thune and Cornyn, look, I don't agree with these guys on basically anything. They're as like opposite as me as it gets on like every subject and even on America First. But there is a real bias in the Senate to just being around forever, knowing everybody, having everybody's phone number. They've been the whip and the number whatever. The whip and the, what's the number leader or something for you know, over a decade. So they've been on the phone, they know what pet issue. Oh, Susan Collins wants a bridge in fucking Maine or whatever.
- [30:13]
Sagar
Yeah, I raised money for you. I showed up, I called in this favor, I got this donor to whatever.
- [30:17]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, Cornyn, I mean he controls a ton of oil money in terms of the donors. Thune, he's also very popular on the big donor circuit and a lot of these establishment types. That's a big question for Rick Scott. I mean, can he raise money? Like I said, he didn't do a very good job last time. One of the reasons McConnell had such a stronghold on the conference is he was kind of like Pelosi. He was the conduit for billions of dollars that were flowing from him. So it is a big question. I have no idea how it will go. I. I guess it's. I mean, it's possible Rand Paul has come out for Rick Scott, but there's enough of them that are silent that I'm wondering whether they go in a different direction.
- [30:50]
Sagar
To be honest with you, I don't think it really matters. I think Trump has thoroughly bent the party to his will. I mean, as evidenced by. We're about to talk about. Trump is saying, hey, anybody who's gonna be majority leader, they gotta do recess appointments, which basically means that you are giving up. If you are the Republican majority leader, a big part of what your power and prestige is, which is to oversee these confirmation hearings. And all three of them instantly were like, yep, we'll do that, no problem. So I don't know that. I mean, I just think it's probably, at this point, a distinction that doesn't really make a difference. Yeah, they're gonna do what Trump wants them to do because they see where the party is. Like, there is no room for bucking this man when he decides that he really wants something done. I guess the case, the opposite case, is that there are many things that Trump doesn't really engage on, and that's where perhaps it makes a difference. But I just. I don't know that this fight is ultimately that important.
- [31:41]
Krystal Ball
In my opin, the case where it really matters is stuff like when Trump, remember, pressured Mitch McConnell to nuke the filibuster to get the border bill through. Stuff like that. Right. Where I think Thune and Cornyn would be much more in an institutionalist and be like, we're not gonna touch it. Whereas I think Scott, at least from what I can tell right now, I mean, clearly he's made a deal with Trump, and he's like, I'll do whatever you want. It'd be an interesting thing, though, actually, if he does. This would be the first Senate leader to really be in subservience to the president in a long time. You know, if we think. I'm trying to think back, I think it would have to be back in the Reagan era. Maybe it's been a while since you've had somebody totally in lockstep. Let's go to the next part here. Yeah, this is Jonathan. Everybody will love this. He was on cnbc and he's like, you know, Trump, I think he needs to stay out of the race. He shouldn't endorse at all. Let's take a listen.
- [32:31]
Sagar
Is President Elect Trump involved? Does he have a chosen preference in the Senate? Do you know, Senator? And will that come into play?
- [32:42]
Krystal Ball
I don't. Well, I don't know that he does. I stay in regular contact with him and with his team and, you know, obviously if he wants to, he could exert a considerable amount of influence on that. But honestly, I think my preference would be, and I think it's probably in his best interest to stay out of that. These secret ballot elections are probably best left to senators and he's got to work with all of us when it's all said and done. But whatever he decides to do, that's going to be his prerogative, as we know how many others. We're going to have that election next Wednesday and we'll have a new leader, right? So he's like, I should stay out of it, you know, just for everybody's best. Now this gets to what Crystal talked about. Let's put this up there on the screen. Trump tweeted yesterday, any Republican senator seeking the coveted leadership position in the US Senate must agree to re recess appointments, without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner. Sometimes the votes can take two years or more. This is what they did four years ago. We cannot let it happen again. We need positions filled immediately. Additionally, no judges should be approved during this period of time because the Democrats are looking to ram through their judges as the Republicans fight over leadership. This is not acceptable. Thank you. Now, as Crystal said, all three of the candidates said that they agreed, but you know, there's a lot of logistical hurdles that can come in, and I'm not exactly sure how it would all work because Schumer still does technically, like, control this Senate and for now, so he would have to acquiesce. There's no way the Democrats are gonna let that go through. Right? They wanna approve as many of these federal judges as possible. This is game time for them. I also, this is very nerdy, so I apologize. But there's something called like pro forma session, which they're in right now, which specifically prevents recess appointments. So you would have to get the Senate majority to agree to change the parliamentary rules. I mean, look, it's theoretically possible. I guess if Rick Scott did win the election, maybe he could do a deal with Schumer. I don't really know. Why Schumer would do it. But anyway, Elon.
- [34:38]
Sagar
Well, previously Obama used the recess appointments powers and it was deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court the way that he executed it. So I mean, listen, it's a different Supreme Court now. So who knows, they may well be like, whatever Trump wants to do, we can basically do. But to me, it was also like you have a 53, 47 majority. Like, who is it exactly that you don't think that you want that isn't going to get confirmed because I just think he has such a grip on this party now. You know, maybe Lisa Murkowski votes against our Susan Collins, but he's two votes now. You only have to still have a three vote margin. So I think it's, I don't think he's going to have any problem getting wild cards.
- [35:19]
Krystal Ball
People like, people that nobody's ever heard of. Todd Young, right, The guy who voted for impeachment, you know, from Indiana.
- [35:24]
Sagar
I don't know, it's just, he's so like at this point, it's just so great clear where the party is.
- [35:28]
Krystal Ball
I don't disagree with you, but that's, look, the Senate, this is part of the reason people have hated the Senate for two centuries because they're annoying. Like, who else? Who's the doctor? The one who also voted for impeachment. What's his name? The guy from Louisiana. I can't even remember. So the doctor, however the doctor votes, Haggerty, I think is his name. I'll remember it in a second. But there's wild cards all over in terms of who they are. Barrasso, right? You got folks like that who sometimes they're maga, sometimes they're not. They all have their own individual constituencies. So I would not bet 100% that Trump is able to get everybody who he wants. I mean, for example, from the reporting I've read, like Trump wants to appoint RFK junior to HHS secretary, but he's like, I don't know if he'll be able to make it through confirmation. So that is one too where you could see, right? You could almost see like a weird right wing case against ARK where they're like, oh, he's just liberal and like.
- [36:20]
Sagar
Oh, that's the other thing is that he's done before is then okay, if they can't get confirmed, he'll just make them acting secretary and just basically leave them their apartment building.
- [36:27]
Krystal Ball
He can, but it has a lot of legal problems in terms of their authority and all that. You can try and get around it. No I'm saying in terms of the agency, it causes real chaos and there's a reason why people want it to get done. But we will see. Look, if they do go with Rick Scott, I think it's a very positive sign for exactly what you're saying in terms of Trump being able to get who he wants through. And a lot of personnel decisions will flow from that and also will flow in terms of whether they do recess approval, appointment or not and all of that. So everybody stay tuned. This stuff I know can get a little in the weeds, but it's very important because this is how the government's actually gonna get run. Yeah.
- [36:58]
Sagar
And notably you could put a 9 up on the screen. Elon coming in for Rick Scott.
- [37:02]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [37:03]
Sagar
For Senate Majority Leader. But yeah, so, I mean, a lot of people closing ranks. The one thing that the other guys have going for them is that it's a secret ballot. So anybody who votes against the will of Trump and Musk, as long as it doesn't get out, they won't necessarily be punished. But like I said, my assessment is basically these guys have already all been like, okay, we'll do recess appointments, no problem. So I just think they're gonna do what Trump wants anyway. Any of the three that gets put in there.
- [37:30]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, very possible.
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Krystal Ball
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- [38:02]
Crystal
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- [39:14]
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- [40:15]
Krystal Ball
At the same time, there's still quite a few people in the media who are trying to grapple with the election results. One of them, Sunny Hostin over at the View. Her explanation for the big Latino shift to the right. Misogyny, Racism. Let's take a listen. What is wrong with this country that they would choose a message of divisiveness, of xenophobia, of racism, of misogyny over a message of inclusiveness? A message for the people, by the people, of the people. That is what the problem is. He won the popular vote. The Democrats have always been for the working people. Exactly. And the Republicans.
- [40:52]
Sagar
Sounded elitist. You don't have value in the society.
- [40:56]
Krystal Ball
But when you look at the proof.
- [40:58]
Sagar
But joy, it's condescending.
- [41:01]
Krystal Ball
There is a. There is a condescending the way that.
- [41:04]
Crystal
The left speaks to its voters.
- [41:05]
Krystal Ball
It really is a message of joy and inclusiveness.
- [41:08]
Crystal
No, the message of not being educated, being dumb.
- [41:11]
Sagar
And what's wrong with America?
- [41:12]
Krystal Ball
Who said that?
- [41:13]
Sagar
Sonny just did.
- [41:14]
Krystal Ball
What is wrong with America? My point here is that's not what Kamala Harris said.
- [41:18]
Sagar
No, no, no. My point is I Don't blame Joe Biden. I don't blame Kamala Harris.
- [41:23]
Krystal Ball
Go back as far as you want.
- [41:25]
Crystal
I believe I blame a messaging within the Democratic Party.
- [41:28]
Krystal Ball
You don't blame the Republican. Can I just finish my point, please?
- [41:30]
Crystal
I obviously have a problem.
- [41:32]
Krystal Ball
Anyone has a problem with Donald Trump, the bigger question should be, yes, Sonny.
- [41:35]
Crystal
Why did they vote for him in sweeping?
- [41:38]
Krystal Ball
They need to be introspective.
- [41:38]
Crystal
No, no, we need to be introspective.
- [41:41]
Sagar
If we voted for Kamala Harris, we.
- [41:43]
Crystal
Need to say what didn't resonate with the voters.
- [41:45]
Krystal Ball
So that's what we're currently at. And that's just one of many clips that we could have shown you about where things are right now.
- [41:51]
Sagar
There's been a competition to figure out. I don't know if you guys saw. There was actually an Onion video about, like, the race to figure out which minority group to blame for Democratic laws. And I was like, wow, you guys really are meeting the moment with that one. And there is a whole context. Like, white people obviously voted for Trump by the largest margin. So they could be to blame. Latino men could be to blame. Young men could be to blame. And it's like, I think it's reasonable to suggest, in fact, I think it's true that gender in particular plays a real role in electoral politics. But if you are just. If your instinct is to blame the voters and not do any sort of reflection on, like, the multibillion dollar consultant grift complex, that fails, or the Democratic leadership, which has consistently failed, or the people who circled the wagons around Joe Biden even though he was on track for a 400 electoral college vote defeat. Like, if that's your instinct, just get out of politics. You're not. If you think you're helping the Democrats, you are not helping the Democrats just by being like, it's because Latinos are sexist. Some of those same Latino men who voted for Donald Trump probably voted for Hillary Clinton back in 2016.
- [43:04]
Krystal Ball
No, not only. Not some of them, almost all of them did vote, especially in those, like, one of the places that she shouted out where Hillary won by 50 and Trump won by now 75 in 2024, literally voted for Hillary, and they actually voted for even higher margins for Barack Obama. So it's like, come on, man, what are we doing here? The whole thing is ludicrous. And it's like you said, this is just a way of not even look at a certain point. Sunny is a pundit, right? So maybe that's just like, how she. That's how she Sees the world. And I guess like, okay, fine, but it's something. Because that is a obviously ingrained part of the analysis of a lot of the Democratic Party elite. And it's also deeply convenient to the grift complex, to the leadership and to others, because then it's the voters fault and it's not our fault.
- [43:49]
Sagar
It's not common for why we're Biden. It's. It's not Pelosi, it's not Schumer, it's not Jaime Harrison. It's the voters. And like I said, in a sense, I'm sympathetic because I understand that a lot of women looking at the policy landscape and of course, Kamala Harris herself being a woman, and people like Nick Fuentes out there being like, yay, your body, my choice forever. I understand that sense of like, wow, maybe this country just hates women. Maybe they just don't really like women. And like I said, I'd be lying if I said that I didn't think gender played any role in this. But you also have to really think about what moves us forward, who is actually to blame for this state of affairs. And if you're just voters are irredeemably sexist and racist, then you may as well just throw your hands up and give up. Because in the Sunny Haas and worldview, those are immutable characteristics that can't be changed no matter what. So what are you gonna do?
- [44:44]
Krystal Ball
I agree. And look on the gender coin, like you just said, for anybody out there who's like, they just hate women, it's like, no, it's like they think about things very differently than you. And then maybe you need to do a better job of understanding. I mean, I felt that way right, going into 2022. And I go, who out there is number one issue is abortion. I was like, you know, what world are we living in? Well, there are a lot of people, okay. So clearly I'm like, okay, as a man, you know, whatever. For all these people, not really something that I get. So that's not something like, oh, these people only care about themselves. I'm like, all right, I could emotively understand that. Well, you should think about the other way. For people out there who are like, well, you know, I don't necessarily. One third of the people who voted for Donald Trump are pro choice. A full 30 something percent of the people. He won the popular vote in a country where there's some 60, 85, 70% approval for Roe versus Wade as the consensus. So how did that happen? Is that because people hate women or are they multifaceted and they make choices based on the hierarchy of needs and about which in a way that they think is most important and what's gonna be the most impactful. And so your job is to flip it around and say here's why this is important. Anyway, let's get to the congressional map and let's put this up there on the screen because wanted to give everybody an update. So this is currently where things stand right now. The projected number of seats is 220seats for repub. 215seats for the Democrats. This honestly might be the most interesting result because it does show Republicans only won a two seat majority there. That's kind of a nightmare considering what's been going on right now all the Mike Johnson, the Speaker election, which was crazy, and Matt Gaetz and this gives a lot of power to the Marjorie Taylor Greenes of the world. It also actually gives quite a bit of power to some of the swing state rep. Republicans in New York and elsewhere who barely hung on because they are gonna. The reason why I'm saying this is when the policy fights come, this is where you are going to see that flex. So for example, the salt tax and the salt cap and all that, New Jersey, New York, people who, let's be fair, you know, Trump just ran the ballot up dramatically in all of the New England states. Like they're gonna have a big bargaining chip for them. They're like, hey, you gotta give us something to go back to our people. You're gonna see the same in any of the swinging districts. I think, I think in, what is it in Orange county and elsewhere in California where you saw some swing state races, you're gonna see that in Nebraska. I bet you that Don Bacon guy who held on, he's gonna whatever he wants in Omaha, I guarantee you he's gonna get. So there's gonna be quite a bit of jockeying and stuff like that in the House. And it also will be very precarious for the way things look policy wise because even though they do technically have a united government, it will not, it will not be how it traditionally is, which is very narrow Senate margin, very big House margin. It's actually me flipped. And that has very interesting dynamics because the House is also where all the revenue stuff has to originate from. So you're going to see taxes, House Ways and Means Committee where you have a very, very narrow margin. It will look differently. And a lot of the fights and the choke points are going to be more in the House this time around.
- [47:42]
Sagar
Let's go and put up the Senate projections. We got some final calls in these races. So we now know for sure what the Senate map is going to look like. So in particular you have Ruben Gallego, who was able to hold on, narrowly win that Arizona Senate race over Kari Lake. You also have Jackie Rosen over. I always forget the name of her frickin opponent.
- [48:02]
Krystal Ball
Sam Brown.
- [48:03]
Sagar
Sam Brown. I always wanna say Scott Brown, that guy from Matt. Jesus.
- [48:07]
Krystal Ball
Anyway, whatever do you mean Biden's ambassador to Australia.
- [48:11]
Sagar
Is that what he ended up?
- [48:13]
Krystal Ball
He ended up in Australia.
- [48:13]
Sagar
He didn't remember that. Anyway, whatever. So Jackie Rosen wins the narrow victory in Nevada, which means that outside of Pennsylvania, which was very close and I think headed to a recount with Bob Casey, but I mean it looks like McCormick was able to defeat.
- [48:27]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean the AP called the race for McCormick already.
- [48:30]
Sagar
Right. I think it is close enough though that it triggers a recount.
- [48:32]
Krystal Ball
Very little if they want to, because KC basically refuses to concede. And so yeah, there's some beef going on with a lot of the Republicans right now because Josh Shapiro, I think it's up to the governor's discretion too because it costs like $2 million if they do want to do a recount. So there's a lot of pressure on KZ to concede. I mean, he doesn't have to if he doesn't want to, but it could be a while until they call.
- [48:52]
Sagar
Yeah, but it looks like McCormick is the one Republican who was able to flip a swing state. Now Republicans picked up in West Virginia, no surprise, picked up in Montana and obviously blocked any Democratic. Texas, Florida, Nebraska, sort of dreams. But when you look at this, the one thing that could be helpful for Democrats and a warning sign for Republicans is Trump doesn't have a lot of coattails. Republicans narrowly hold onto the House, make only one very close gain in terms of a swing state in the Senate. And the people who, like Carrie Lake, who were the most Trumpian in their approach to politics, they haven't fared particularly well. He is a singularly unique figure. And now assuming that there isn't a constitutional amendment, this will be his last term. So one of the questions for Republicans is if this politics holds up post Trump. And there are some parallels with Democrats under Obama.
- [49:52]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [49:52]
Sagar
So a lot. There were a bunch, I'm talking hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Donald Trump and then just left the rest of the ballot empty. Which is how people like Jackie Rose and Ruben Gallego are able to get over the top is basically people who voted Only for Trump and no one else. Democrats faced a similar dynamic under Obama where you'd have people who were like, yes to Barack Obama, and I don't care about anything else. And we know that with Obama, while he was very good at getting himself elected and had some coattails as well, especially in 2008, he had huge coattails. He ultimately ended up being very damaging for the Democratic Party. That's when you saw massive losses in rural districts and areas. They lost the House, they lost the Senate, and of course, they hand the presidency over to Donald Trump post Obama. So I don't want to do my monologue today is about how doomed Democrats are. So I'm not doing a cope here. But there is a question mark about how much this politics translates into the future when you do not have the singularly charismatic figure of Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. I think he outperformed every Republican Senate candidate in the country, save for Larry Hogan in Mary.
- [50:58]
Krystal Ball
Yes, it's correct.
- [50:58]
Sagar
I was the only person, I think, that outperformed him.
- [51:00]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's right. Which makes sense. And, you know, he's a Republican running in a blue state where he's already popular, so it's pretty different.
- [51:06]
Sagar
But he was governor of the state. He really tried to, like, be very moderate, et cetera, et cetera.
- [51:11]
Krystal Ball
Which, by the way, how did that work out for him? Didn't work out well.
- [51:13]
Sagar
He outperformed Trump.
- [51:14]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. I guess.
- [51:15]
Sagar
Still lost. I guess.
- [51:18]
Krystal Ball
I am fascinated to see this in 2026. Cause that is where usually thermostatic public opinion. You have a big shift against the ruling party, and you're gonna have a blowout election when you already have what, the House right now, where it is. It will be almost. I mean, I wouldn't say. Certainly nothing is certain, but, you know, it looks likely that the Democrats would be able to reclaim it. From what? This map I looked at. The Senate is not in danger of flipping right now. In 2026. Some truly crazy stuff would have to happen. That said, crazy stuff has happened. Let's think back. Two Democrats from Georgia. That's never gonna happen. Right. Well, what's the world that we're living in right now? So, of course things can change. Everybody said in 2004 that the Democrats were dead, they'll never win again. 2006 was a fricking blowout election. So you never know.
- [52:03]
Sagar
Well, and everybody said Republicans were dead after 2008.
- [52:06]
Krystal Ball
Right. And I mean, to be fair, they kind of were dead for a while, but then they came back.
- [52:09]
Sagar
It was such a massive victory for Barack Obama. I mean, you won fricking Indiana.
- [52:14]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [52:14]
Sagar
North Carolina. Huge cote. There were all kinds of Democratic candidates who were running like totally obscure long shot campaigns with basically no funding. And then suddenly it's like, oh my God, I won. What the hell?
- [52:27]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it was Imperiallo.
- [52:29]
Sagar
That was exactly what I was thinking about in Virginia, representing like the Charlottesville area. And it was people like that, Glenn. And I was another one in Virginia. I just happen to know the Virginia ones well. But down in Virginia Beach. But yeah, then 2010 was, in Obama's words, a shellacking. So we'll see. I'll save some of my commentary also for. It's in my monologue. Whatever. I'm not saying Democrats are electorally doomed. I think they can. I think there's a chance that you have. I think there's a good chance you have a backlash to Trump in 2026, 2028, who knows? TRUMP won't be on the ballot, so we'll see what approach they take. But they also, the alarm bells are really ringing loudly because there's been such huge demographic shifts against them. And if they don't stop the bleed, they will be in a position of being basically a permanent minority. Because if you're only winning college educated voters, that's only a third of the country.
- [53:24]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's a disaster.
- [53:24]
Sagar
You're fucked.
- [53:25]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, absolutely. I will say again, in terms of the popular opinion and all, things change a lot. So I just looked at 1982 was the popular vote margin of Democrats, 11.8%. So in 1982, that's crazy. In terms of.
- [53:40]
Sagar
Well, they were in the House every.
- [53:42]
Krystal Ball
Day with Tip O'Neill and all that.
- [53:44]
Sagar
I mean, look, it was only when Gingrich came in that they lost the House. That's right. Even throughout the entire record Reagan administration, they held onto the House.
- [53:50]
Krystal Ball
Right. So everybody just needs to remember, like, things are not as clean as they may seem in retrospect, and that people in this country can change their mind a lot and wildly. And in fact, you know, the whole divided government thing, which I think is dumb, but there are a lot of voters who like it. Right. Because voters are like, well, I like checks and balances. Like, well, if you're gonna vote for a president, don't you want the president to be able to do whatever they want to do, but whatever. People like the idea that not very much is gonna change. Like a steady hand on the wheel, but not too much. You know, it's just somebody in the other side, so we could see a swing in that direction. I will say if 2026 does go the way that you were talking about or are gonna talk about in your monologue, that is a whole other story. And that would be time for some serious retrospectives as well. So it's possible. It certainly is. I mean, if you don't screw up the economy, if the economy starts doing really well within two years, we have no war, Ukraine gets wrapped up, hostilities in Gaza go down and you see gas prices tick down and you see the Fed, which is naturally gonna cut rates anyway. I could see a GOP victory that time around. Anything is on the table.
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- [57:38]
Krystal Ball
Let'S move on to another part of this. There's been a lot of discussion about some of the issues that swung people to Donald Trump. Obviously the economy and immigration are there, but some interesting new analysis says that also it could be cultural issues, specifically transgender issues, that had a major impact on swing voters. We had a clip here from CNN we wanted to play that kind of highlights this fight within both elite media and elsewhere and how the issue may be talked about now in the future. Let's take a listen. I think there are a lot of families out there who don't believe boys should play girls sports. They're not boys. I'm not going to listen to transphobia at this table. I am not going to listen to call a trans girl a boy when you use a word.
- [58:23]
Sagar
I'm going to interrupt.
- [58:24]
Krystal Ball
That's not how it is.
- [58:25]
Sagar
They're not boys.
- [58:26]
Krystal Ball
They're not boys. They're not playing girls. I'm not going to sit there. Let's reset for a second because, because.
- [58:32]
Sagar
Look, this is a really heated issue, right?
- [58:35]
Krystal Ball
And Cher, Michael, I know you.
- [58:37]
Sagar Enjeti
I know that you understand that people.
- [58:39]
Krystal Ball
Have different views on this.
- [58:41]
Sagar
I think out of respect for Jay, like, let's try to talk about this.
- [58:46]
Krystal Ball
In a way that is respectful. Okay, so let me rephrase this. Since I'm being targeted here.
- [58:51]
Crystal
I don't think, to be clear, you are not being.
- [58:53]
Krystal Ball
But I am. But it's okay. I'm specifically saying that I know that.
- [58:56]
Crystal
You are not intending to be transphobic.
- [58:59]
Krystal Ball
He should know that I'm not. But he wants to say I want you to call you transphobic, but I want you to. I want to give you an opportunity. Regular people interpret it. That's not regular people. That's not regular people. There's no consensus that these are actually Boys. This whole thing about trans girls is a canard. We're talking about a tiny, tiny sliver of the population, and we're using that. My point, in terms of healthcare for thousands.
- [59:23]
Sagar
Hold on.
- [59:23]
Crystal
Just get to your point.
- [59:24]
Krystal Ball
My point in terms of its effectiveness. Regular people with children look at these things, and they say, you know what? This is a bit too far. I do not agree with this. I don't like this. I think Democrats are going way too much to the left on social issues. They're uncomfortable with it. A lot of people believe that. A lot of families believe that. You may disagree with that reality, but that's why Republicans kept running those ads over and over and over again, because they saw the metrics, suggested that they were working those ads over and over again and using rhetoric like you just used, saying, this is boys playing girls sports. First of all, we're talking about. We're talking about trans girls playing. Being allowed to play with the people who are in their gender. And if you don't believe, you don't have to listen to me. Listen to the American Medical association, the American Psychological association, the American Medical Association. All right, so preview of what culture war 2.0 looks like now that this has happened. Let's put this up there on the screen. This is really the genesis, I think, of why this is even worth discussing. So this is from blueprint, and this is. We've used some of their polling and stuff before, and they show the different issues that have animated different types of voters. So, for example, if you look, look. Reason to not choose Kamala Harris. The number one issue for all voters was inflation was too high under the Biden administration. Number two was too many immigrants illegally crossed the border under Biden and Harris. So that makes sense. But actually, along the swing voters, this was. Honestly, I was shocked by this. It says all swing voters, but specifically all swing voters who chose Trump. It said Kamala Harris is more focused on cultural issues like transgender issues, rather than helping the middle class. That was a plus 28 score on Blueprint. Now, look, let's be clear. People are not always the best in terms of why they vote, and I'm the most consistent messenger on that. So I'm not gonna say that this is the number one reason. But, I mean, I do think this is a vindication, at least somewhat of that ad, the they them ad that they blanketed the entire state of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin for. Considering the margin and also considering that we have some of this data here and also even some of the reaction within the Democratic Party. So I'm curious what you think.
- [61:34]
Sagar
So I think that this type of analysis, which I have myself engaged in, which is basically like, let's focus group and poll test and get the voters to tell us in this paint by numbers way what we should believe in. I think it is worse than worthless. I think if you look at the campaign that the Kamala Harris team actually put that chart back up on the screen, they basically ran the campaign designed, custom, like, platonic ideal of the campaign that would be designed to try to deal with these exact poll numbers. Inflation was too high. Okay, let me talk about my price gouging plan. Let me say, I feel your pain. Too many immigrants illegally cross the border. Oh, don't worry. I'm hawkish on the border. Now. Those other things I said in the past, like, forget all about that. Actually, I really. I really am, like, more aggressive and hawkish on the border than Donald Trump is transgender. Too focused on cultural issues like transgender issues, rather than helping the middle class. I am not even going to say the word transgender in my entire campaign.
- [62:38]
Krystal Ball
Is that true? I didn't know that.
- [62:39]
Sagar
I mean, not that I remember. Maybe once, but not that I recall. Okay. It was certainly not. I'm not gonna talk about my race. I'm not gonna talk about my gender. I'm gonna run around the country with Liz Cheney and try to persuade you that actually, I'm just, like, basically a Republican. The only way I'm different from Biden is I'm actually further to the right. I'm gonna put Republicans in my cabinet. Like, this is the campaign that Democrats ran. And it was an objective, clear cut, demonstrable failure. Because as much as I would like politics to actually work this way, because I have a bunch of poll numbers I could put up there about how popular Medicare for all is and how popular minimum wage is and how popular unions are, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. If that was the way politics actually, Kamala Harris would be headed to the White House right now.
- [63:24]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I think that's fair.
- [63:25]
Sagar
Donald Trump ran around talking about Arnold Palmer's dick. The idea Democrats are the two divisive ones. Are you kidding me? Trump is the most divisive figure in modern American politics. The lesson is not to be less divisive. The lesson is actually to be more divisive, but around the correct lines. So what is Trump's division and what does he feed the division and the world view that he feeds into? The narrative that he feeds into with everything he does, the litmus test for being part of Donald Trump's party is the problems in your lives are because of immigrants, Democrats, cultural elites. I will say I will fix it. Right? Those are the litmus tests within the Republican Party. That is the worldview. It's one I disagree with. I've talked a lot about it, but that is the worldview and is very clear cut worldview. So when you're talking about things like transgender issues, that fits into this idea from him. Cultural elites are trying to change you, indoctrinate your kids, take over your life, preach to you about what your values should be. When we're talking about the border, when we're talking about immigrants, these immigrants are gonna come into your town, they're gonna steal your jobs, they're gonna drive up housing again, I think all of this is incorrect. But it's clear, right? It is clear cut and it is extremely divisive. So the problem is not the Democrats were too talking about. I don't even remember the last time Democrats talked about transgender issues at all. And it's not that Democrats were too far right or too far left or whatever. The problem is they have no narrative. They do not have a divisive politics, at least not one that actually works. This is where Bernie Sanders was on the money, okay, Occupy Wall Street. What's the division there? The 99 versus the 1 Bernie Sanders, what's the division? The people broadly versus the millionaires and the billionaires. That's what they need. And so the guy who was like arguing with Scher Michael on there, who I'm not really familiar with, Jay Michaels, the part that he said that was the most important and that should be coming out of Democrats mouths when they're being pressed on transgender athletes or whatever, whatever is. He said this is a canard. And that's the important point. How does the five transgender athletes in the country, how does that impact you, your ability to have a good life, earn a good wage, etc. It's a distraction. It's a distraction from billionaire elites who want another tax cut, or in Elon Musk's case, want another government subsidy, taxpayer subsidized contract. That is what Democrats should be leaning into. They shouldn't be running away from it. They need their own divisive politics and they need to throw out this focus group poll tested bullshit. Because the paint by numbers way of. Let me just poll test my way into what I think is a popular program. Utter and complete rejected failure.
- [66:24]
Krystal Ball
So I don't think that any of that is necessarily wrong in terms of the focus group. But on The. I mean, look, I mean, I do think it is clear that there is a reality problem the Democrats face. So what you were saying in terms of, oh, Kamala didn't run on it. It's like, yeah, but in 2019, she literally did say she taxed her dollars to have gender transition surgery for illegal immigrants. That's objectively an insane thing to believe. These people ran around all throughout the.
- [66:49]
Sagar
Trump administration too, by the way.
- [66:51]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, okay, well, I hope he bans it right now. And by the way, it looks like that's gonna be a day one agenda. And so if anything, he's too much an idiot not to follow through. So that's something. But really what it. And also, that was Kamala's response. It didn't work. People get tagged because of the cultural milieu. You can, for example, in 2022, if Republicans did not say the word abortion, would that not mean that they still get tagged? And rightfully so. With the issue of abortion, Democrats basically completely changed their views on gender after Obergefell and tried to shove it down the mouths of American citizens. Dominated cultural elites have tried to normalize this transgender ideology, legalize it in terms of plugging little children full of castration drugs and puberty blockers. And then they say that it's a canard. It's not a canard. Like, thousands of children been chemically castrated in this country. That is crazy. Now, is it the number one issue? No. But clearly a lot of people are very concerned about it. And I think at this point, there is a bit of a mandate on the issue because it's one of those where it gets to the fact that multiracial groups, men, women, young, et cetera, do feel as if these issues have more of an importance in the Democratic mind. And what I would. What I mean by that is I remember I had this big fight with some progressive on rising back in 2019, and I was like, look, simple question. Could you ever support Medicare for All if it didn't include transgender surgeries and they wouldn't answer the question? And like, I think that says the whole ball game. Could you ever support Medicare for All if it did not cover abortion? That's again, the same thing. So if that's true for you, then you don't support, you know, or then you do think cultural issues are the most important. If you would deny healthcare, you know, to what, 99.9% or whatever, the US population, and put it at risk because it doesn't support gender transition, surgery or abortion, it's like, well, Then you do care more about the cultural issue than you do the so called economic issue.
- [68:44]
Sagar
But you're actually in a sense making my point because I do think that should be flipped. So I think the litmus test in the Democratic Party should be things like billionaires should not exist. We should tax the rich more. Right? They should be clear, like economic populist, class war. Those should be the litmus tests. And then outside of that, there should be a lot more flexibility on everyone. There's zero soccer. I'm not talking about what is. Okay, sure, I'm critiquing what is. I'm saying it is the opposite of what it should be because instead it's we're gonna be the coalition of Dick Cheney and Mark Cuban and Taylor Swift and Bernie Sanders. And that doesn't make any God damn sense. Okay? That is not a. There is no division in there that makes any kind of rational or electoral sense. So on the specific question of like transgender issues, a couple things I would point to. Number one, in the states where those they them ads ran and they were head to head, you know, these are the battleground states where the campaigns were spending all of their money and commerce was running this actually like pretty good class. Trump's a billionaire, doesn't look out for you message. She narrowed the gap significantly. She outperformed in those states where the they them ads were being run versus the rest of the country. So there's that. And the other piece is Democrats ran around this whole country this whole year castigating college students as too woke and too out of touch, et cetera. I just am not sure that there's any more to be gained from that sense of politics sort of politics, because ultimately there's always gonna be some pink haired college kid out there who's saying like, you know, they're introducing themselves with their pronouns and doing a land acknowledgement to be like, see, the wokeism got them again. Kamala ran the platonic ideal of the campaign that the popularists who say, just avoid this stuff altogether, that they would suggest, I've been saying the same thing on immigration. I think it was a dramatic political immoral, but political failure for them to just cede the ground to the Republican worldview and say, you know what, you're right about everything. Immigrants actually are bad. Because guess what? If that's the worldview, Republicans are going to win every single time. If the worldview is actually transgender issues are the number one issue and cultural elites are trying to trans your little boy. If you accept that framing, guess What Republicans are going to win every single time. How about instead saying, you know what? Just like it shouldn't be the state telling women what they can do with their bodies. It shouldn't be the state telling transgender people what they can do with their bodies.
- [71:20]
Krystal Ball
What about children? No, but the children is the main question, and that's families, doctors, nobody out there.
- [71:24]
Sagar
Complicated.
- [71:25]
Krystal Ball
Is saying that.
- [71:26]
Sagar
I don't think that Donald Trump. Yes, they. Yeah, actually, they are.
- [71:29]
Krystal Ball
Maybe Matt Walsh.
- [71:30]
Sagar
Actually.
- [71:30]
Krystal Ball
They are actually a few fringe characters, but even Trump.
- [71:33]
Sagar
Even Trump. Now, one of his first executive orders he says he's gonna sign is making sure that all federal government forms just reflect male, female, and it's your biological sex. What I'm saying is that's not just about kids. That's about saying, basically, the message there, and I don't think it's, like, all that important, but the message there is that trans people are not real. They don't exist.
- [71:52]
Krystal Ball
No, it's that your biological sex is assigned at birth. Transgender people. What are the trans people? What do the trans propagandists always tell us? Transgender people have existed forever. Well, you existed whenever the male, female form was on there. Is it so important for you to.
- [72:03]
Sagar
Have a form that says it's not.
- [72:06]
Krystal Ball
Actually that they're the crazy people?
- [72:07]
Sagar
It's not that critical of an issue. There should be flexibility on it within the Democratic coalition. But what I will not abide is people like Seth Moulton and Tom Suozzi, who came out immediately, were like, actually, I'm on the side of the Republicans when it comes to who just their immediate instinct is to throw transgender people under the bus. Now, think of how convenient that is for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris herself, the entire Democratic consultant grift complex. Think of how convenient that is. It does not hurt a single single donor to throw transgender people under the bus. It does not hurt a single Democratic elite. They've been throwing transgender people under the bus for years now at this point. Does not hurt them one bit at all. So, listen, I am all open to having more. I don't think we should be doing the word policing. I think there should be more flexibility on cultural issues. I think the litmus test should be around economic populism. That's where the divide belongs. But, no, if. If your first reaction is to throw some of the most powerless people in the country under the bus, you have no spine, no character, and you are running cover for the current status quo of the Democratic Party. And nothing will ever Change.
- [73:18]
Krystal Ball
I just disagree with that completely. I mean, the idea that trans people are the least powerful. I mean, they're the most powerful. Kidding.
- [73:23]
Sagar
Are you?
- [73:24]
Krystal Ball
Ruled our politics for years. I mean, these people are not forcing their fringe ideology on all of us.
- [73:30]
Sagar
That's tyranny. Look at their income, look at their health outcomes. Look at their life expectancy, look at their suicide rates. Like, that's a preposterous view of the world.
- [73:39]
Krystal Ball
Preposterous. Well, first of all, a lot of that whole. A lot of those stats around that population changes because the population has dramatically increased. And there's quite a lot of people who are either autistic or mentally ill or somehow convinced that they're trans. So that's number one. So actually, I'm very curious to see how the rates go whenever we actually get this stuff out of schools. My prediction, it'll be just like anorexia. It'll be a social contagion phenomena phenomenon is gonna plunge, which means it was all bullshit and fake in the first place. But second is that if you look at this whole, like this transgender of people under the bus, I mean, same thing. It's like, is it really, quote, unquote, throwing people under the bus to say that biologically, however sex you're born in, that's the league of sports that you have to play. Like, how is that throwing people under the bus?
- [74:16]
Sagar
Because you know what? Putting the. How you feel about the issue aside, because I don't even. This is my point. I don't give a shit about the issue. I genuinely don't. I don't think it's important. Important at all. Which is why, if you are making that your main analysis of what went wrong here, for Democrats, it is wildly dishonest and lacking in any sort of courage or moral character. So Seth Moulton put out his little statement and one of his staffers resigned.
- [74:44]
Krystal Ball
I think we have B7, please. We'll put it on the screen.
- [74:46]
Sagar
And you know what? That staffer is correct to resign not because of the specific position that he took. They are correct to resign because it's displays such a lack of courage and character to go to the easiest, easiest target here, who has no defense against you. You don't have a word to say about Jaime Harrison. You have a word to say about the $2 billion that are now lining the pockets of the consultant grift complex. You don't have anything to say about that. So that's why I find this despicable. It's not even about the issue. I don't give a shit about that issue. That's what. And that's what Democrats should be saying. That's what they should be saying. But it has to be a part. So I'm not even saying that transition had nothing to do with this, because Trump had a coherent frame, and transgender issues and the border and all of these other things that were part. That was part of the frame. Kamala Harrison. Democrats have a laundry list of issues that no one remembers and no one gives a shit about because they don't believe they're actually going to do anything with regards those issues. They need a divisive politics. They need to be more aggressive in fighting and laying out their worldview. Because if you're constantly just capitulating to the Republican worldview, guess what? People are gonna vote for Republicans. If you are not credible that you are going to go after the economic elites who are actually responsible for so much of the pain and the misery of this country, then, yeah, they're going to vote for the side that actually does have a narrative. So that's why I say, just to go back to the original chart we put up on the screen. I am someone who. I have been that person who's been like, guys, look at how popular progressive policy issues are. You just need to talk about Medicare for all. You just need to talk about these things. And that is not enough. It has to fit into a clear, credible narrative with heroes and villains. And that is where the real problem is. It's not like people said woke stuff back in 2020. We should have tacked a little bit this way on that issue or whatever. No, you are lacking a story that makes any goddamn sense to anyone in this country. That's what has to be fixed.
- [76:55]
Krystal Ball
I think I understand a bit better. Yeah, I get what you're saying in terms of if you're gonna say this as respect to. Yeah, I mean, it would be like if the Republicans lost and they're like, well, Trump is the only reason that we lost. And I'm like, well, I think abortion would have been a pretty big one. It would be like the idea of trying to preserve unpopular parts of a coalition without blaming any of the people who are really responsible. So I do understand it. I don't know. I'm curious because I'm not sure if any of this exists within the party, which is a good segue to the next part about Bernie Sanders versus Pelopsi. But for right now, I don't see a single. Well, the other problem is, before we even get to the whole Bernie thing. One of the things Matt Karp keeps talking about is that Democrats performed, what is it better with households over 1 100k as opposed to households under 100k that voted for Trump. I mean, then the truth is that people who make over 100k are predominantly well educated and have more far left to views on immigration transition. In fact, they think those are the most important stuff and they don't want to hear nothing about taxation or any of that. And so that actually might be one of the bigger coalitional fights.
- [77:56]
Sagar
Of course. Yeah, of course. If Democrats are going to win again, they have to go to war with their donor base. And we all know how likely that is to happen.
- [78:14]
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