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Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
Saagar Enjeti
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
Krystal Ball
We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America at Lowe's this Veterans Day and every day, verified military members, veterans and their spouses get automatic silver status in Mylos rewards with free standard shipping plus 10% off eligible purchases with no annual limit. It's one way we honor and give back to those who have served and still do. Learn more now@lowe's.com Military 10% discount can't be combined with another offer. Exclusions Terms and conditions apply. Loyalty programs subject to terms and conditions. Details@lowe's.com Terms subject to change. This is Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. JBL Tour Pro 3 earbuds are for those who don't conform to the standard. Yeah, I mean if you want to get into some touchscreen technology, how about the smart charging case Clear sound? These are not standard things. You're only going to get them with the JBL Tour Pro 3, baby. And I love the sound of JBL and goes. These earbuds are packed with innovation because you can't stand out by following others. Touchscreen Smart charging case for one touc control, instant EQ customization, true adaptive noise canceling and the one of a kind audio transmitter which can plug and play with everything from game consoles to in flight entertainment. What more could you want? First doesn't follow. Grab a pair@jbl.com hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.
Saagar Enjeti
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show.
Krystal Ball
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
Saagar Enjeti
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
Krystal Ball
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com.
Saagar Enjeti
Speaking of sanctions, guess who. Guess who just scored some more sanction relief. None other than the former Al Qaeda leader now known as Ahmed Al Shara the current president of Syria, formerly known as his Noam de Ger Al Jelani. So he made a historic visit to the White House yesterday, first time ever by a Syrian head of state. So extraordinary. This guy just, I think less than a year ago was a designated terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head. Now he's hanging out in the White House, warmly greeted by Trump, playing basketball with former commanders who were previously out trying to kill him. Let's take a listen to Trump here. D1 getting asked about his past and how he squares that with their now friendly relationship.
Krystal Ball
You can expect some announcements on Syria. We want to see Syria become a country that's very successful. And I think this leader can do it. I really do. I think this leader can do it. And people said he's had a rough past. We've all had rough pasts. But he has had a rough past. And I think, frankly, if you didn't have a rough past, you wouldn't have a chance. He gets along very well with Turkey, with President Erdogan, who's a great leader. Erdogan's a great leader.
Saagar Enjeti
So he says. People say he's had a rough past. We've all had rough past, Sagar. And then he goes on to say that that, quote, unquote, rough past of being an Al Qaeda terrorist, that that actually may help him in his leadership. He gets along with Turkey. He says, you may need that kind of a rough past to be in this position. I mean, just absolutely insane. And I have to point out that this comes at a time when a lot of people on the right, including Trump, are out there shrieking about Zoran Mamdani is a jihadist and he's an Islamist and he's gonna implement Sharia law in New York City. And you have a literal former terrorist being welcomed into the White House and gaining sanctions relief and scoring new military partnerships, et cetera, et cetera.
Krystal Ball
That's a good point. I hadn't put that together, but you're absolutely right. I mean, it's just one of the most depressing things for anybody who lived through the war on terror. I mean, I can't imagine yesterday was the birthday of the United States Marine Corps. Imagine being one of those Marines who served in, what was it, Al Anbar Province in Iraq. And you're fighting Al Qaeda, literally. Guys like Jelani and his entire crew who blew up your friends and who you had to try and to be back at bay. And you're desperately trying to stop the rise of these jihadists. And then to see him come to the United States of America and to put a suit on. And every, everybody is just laying out the red carpet for him. And let's all remember why. It's cuz he's pro Israel. That's the only reason, okay, that's the whole ball game is because he was pro Israel. Also, it really does validate a lot of the whole AL Qaeda is CIA stuff from the 2010s, which I'll be honest, I dismissed. But at this point, I mean, how else can you explain David Petraeus being like, I worry about how you sleep at night. The former CIA director when he did that interview with Alshara and now put D2 up here, for example, on the screen like these, you know, meetings that are now happening with our, you know, that's Brian Mast who literally got blown up by the Taliban meeting as the head of the U.S. foreign Affairs Committee with Al Shar here in Washington, like seeking sanctions relief. And by the way, they actually got it.
Saagar Enjeti
I think he should have worn his IDF uniform for this photo op personally. That would have been more appropriate.
Krystal Ball
It's definitely true because again, like that's the whole thing. And look, I'm not above making peace with enemies. In fact, I think it's not really if we don't do it enough, you know, in terms of diplomacy. So this isn't really about him per se. It's more about how bullshit the entire war on terror was. And like that is where they hate us for our freedoms. We have to eradicate them. And this time around, oh, now it's all real politik. It's like, Assad bad. Why? Assad hated Al Qaeda, Assad hated isis, but he was bad and he was scary and pro Russia. This guy is pro Israel. And so you're like, oh, okay, well.
Saagar Enjeti
As long as we can do business.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, we can do business, right? That's the part where I'm like, this is ridiculous.
Saagar Enjeti
That's really the important part here is, you know, I support sanctions relief on Syria. I think it's, you know, I think it sucks we had sanctions on them to be. I think our whole policy towards Syria has been abysmal. It is immiserated. The Syrian people, it has destabilized politics and across Europe created this mass migration crisis. I mean, it's been horrible. I've been to Syria. Syria's a beautiful country with an extraordinary culture and extraordinary history. And so it's heartbreaking to watch what has been done to that country with our assistance and our backing. And you're Absolutely right. That like the most sort of conspiracy brained takes about our involvement in their civil war and why we were involved and who we were backing. Yeah, it's hard to deny some of that, like the veracity of some of what was being suggested there. It certainly looks like they were more right than they were wrong. But the real point here is that next time, and it's already happening, Maduro, he's a drug trafficker and he's a terrorist. He's harboring Hamas and he's Hamas and he's Iran and he's Hezbollah and whatever. They just make this shit up. The terrorist designation is the fakest thing on planet earth. This man who just got sanctions relief and we're setting up some military situation in Syria with him and we're doing all these deals and we're besties with him now a year ago was a designated terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head. Terrorist just means somebody who we don't like at this moment. We do deals with all sorts of bad guys around the world. That's the. Look at our friendship with Saudi. Look at our bestie, Netanyahu, who is the biggest terrorist on the entire fucking planet, no doubt about it. And that is our bestie, who we back up and support and arm no matter what. So do not like. Don't be influenced by the things that they say. Think for yourself. Because they will turn on a dime and go from oh, you know, he's our biggest enemy to oh, you had a rough past. Who among us has it in a second. That's the thing to really understand is just how fake and invented all of this is. And not to say, I mean, Jelani genuinely was like, trying to murder Americans.
Krystal Ball
No, like, actually for real.
Saagar Enjeti
I'm not trying to whitewash his past. I'm just saying who we label as a terrorist versus who can be our best bud. There is no distinction in their level of evil and the atrocities that they're willing to get.
Krystal Ball
Look, I have no issues with making deals with enemies, with moving on and admitting that wars were a failure. In fact, I think we should do a lot more of them. But I also think that there needs to be some come to Jesus honesty and not just pretending that it's all, you know, basically a farce. Let's put this, you know, video, for example, on the screen. Like, can we play D3? Like, this is literally the Al Qaeda leader playing basketball with top American generals who 10 years ago these guys were literally trying to kill each other. Now again, fine, if we all Just say, oh, we once fought on the battlefield, we resolved our differences, and it's to the benefit of our country. I think you can make a case for that. I don't agree with that. I don't think, you know, living under his leadership or whatever for Syria is supposedly so much better for America. I think it's great for Israel. Right. Who gets to extend its territory out a little bit more and gets a nice little, you know, colony in Damascus if it wants. If we want to be honest about that, like, I guess. Right.
Saagar Enjeti
But this guy is part of the Greater Israel Project.
Krystal Ball
Literally. Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, that's why we're friends with him.
Krystal Ball
Exactly. That's. That's the part which is driving me insane. Put the next one up there, D4, just to show you again, like, this was literally, like a year ago. This was his $10 million bounty reward for justice as a member of Al Qaeda in Syria and who long, long history of fighting U.S. service members. All of this. Just what it puts together for me is how fake so much of it was, is, oh, we have to know to the bitter end. We have to fund all of this. We have to make sure, you know, that the moderate rebels, which were Al Qaeda, which will take over. That's literally what they said, you know, And I believed it. I'm serious. I really did. I was like, look, you know, he's a bad guy. I really believe I said, assad, he's a bad guy. Dropped barrel bombs on children, you know, so awful. We should do something about it. But look how it ended up, you know, it's like it becomes just like some pro Israel colony in Syria.
Saagar Enjeti
Well. And, yeah, and there's tons of, like, retribution killings of minorities that are going on right now against the Alawites, against Christians, against the Druze that are happening right now. Now what Al Jilani says is like, oh, well, you know, I don't really have control over. This is his outlet, his outfit, HGs, like, they're the ones who are committing these atrocities and retribution killings against minorities within Syria, which has a diverse population with a lot of different backgrounds. He claims that he just can't control them. I think a lot of people are very skeptical of that. But I mean, that's another important, like, part of the story here of what's happening in modern day Syria right now under this guy's leadership.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. I think that what America doesn't appreciate is just. I don't know, I really hope if you're an American service member, if you served in Iraq, you know, if you served in the counter ISIS mission.
Saagar Enjeti
Just, you know, can you imagine?
Krystal Ball
Like, I genuinely, I feel so much for you because think about how much propaganda you had mainlined into you and all those missions that you went out, you know, beyond the wire and people got blown up and then just to watch this type of stuff happen in front of your own eyes, it's honestly sickening. Like, put D8 up here on the screen. Like, I guess this is what it's all about. The US military will now establish a presence at the Damascus Air base after he's all friendly with Israel and it doesn't matter the minorities and the freedoms and all that stuff that they sold to you back in the mid 2000s, it was all totally fake. So, yeah, again, should we make deals with our enemies and our former enemies? Should we admit our mistakes? Yes, absolutely. But we haven't really done any of that.
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
Krystal Ball
The Syrian people are way worse off. 14 years, brutal civil war. We funded it. So many of our allies funded it. We never really kind of enjoyed it as a little plaything. The Israelis liked it too. Hezbollah and all of that was happening. They could occasionally strike within there whenever they wanted. We used it as some proxy with Iran. The Iranians used it as their playground. It became an international kind of chew toy for everybody to basically play with. We destroyed the country along with many others, not just us. And in the interim, you know, millions of people fled. It caused a demographic crisis in Europe, basically ignited right wing politics across the continent. We would have been better off from day one doing nothing. And I think that's what, that's what's so infuriating. I think there's a lot of people who died in Syria. Americans died in Syri. A lot of Americans died fighting Al Qaeda in Iraq. That was the primary mission, is why we had to do the surge. And then to see the same architect of that fluffing Jelani on stage in New York City. And then same with the CENTCOM commanders who guys were literally on the other side of this for a reason. Again, of nothing. It's really depressing. If you lived and followed foreign policy, discussions, politics, it would be unthinkable. And then finally, it's just about the relative moralism of Assad. Bad Al Qaeda good, right? It's like, no, there's no such thing. We deal with countries on the basis of what's good for us. Because this moralist stuff, it's all bullshit, you know, it really is. Just to see it all in front of your eyes, like, this is hard. It really is a tough pill to swallow. Okay, let's get to AI, shall we? I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
Saagar Enjeti
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
Krystal Ball
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News Reporting for America Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 Flexible Online Master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime, with an education built to keep pace, steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu Steady through every mission.
Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
So, some new indications of potential AI bubble. Interesting post coming here from Michael Burry of Big Short fame. Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen and I'll do my best to decode this in straightforward English. So he says understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boost earnings. One of the more common frauds of the modern era. Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chip servers on a two to three year product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment. Yes? Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By my estimates, that will understate depreciation by 176 billion by 2028. ORCL will overstate earnings by 26.9%, meta by 20%, etc. But it gets worse. More detail coming November 25th, so stay tuned. We certainly will. And he has up there a chart showing the way that the useful life depreciation in years has increased at companies like Meta, Google, Oracle, Microsoft and Amazon, going from roughly three years to now five or six years. Okay, so as best I can put it, straightforward English interpretation of this is basically as they're buying up all of these Nvidia chips and servers rather than reducing the amount of time over which you can depreciate that they're actually extending it. And it makes no sense because those chips become obsolete very quickly. So the net effect of that is to basically juice their revenue, juice their net profit, to make their financials look more impressive than they actually are. So he's pointing to that as some sort of significant financial engineering that is going on with these magnificent seven stocks that our whole economy is basically floated by at this point.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean, look, you gotta take him seriously whenever he makes a bet like this. Now, to be fair, he was right on the Big Short. Michael Burry. He's also been wrong a lot since the Big Short, famously telling people, don't buy now and then the S and P is up like 70% since he told people to do that. But I can't just sit here and dismiss what the guy said. He's one of the most legendary people who found the arbitrage opportunity before anybody else. And so for him in particular, when we're all looking at the AI thing and it feels wrong, I think it just feels wrong to everybody from even people on Wall street to people everyday, average folks who are looking at it and feeling uneasy, he's giving some language, potentially to something which may have been missed. And having read so much about Enron, about. Even in the modern times, between dotcom, enron, worldcom and 2008, the same hallmarks of. There's this theory that these people on Wall street are so smart and they know exactly what they're doing. No rational exuberance, they overlook stuff, they undervalue, they always underrate risk, they cheat behind the scenes. Like the Enron thing is so obvious in retrospect. And yet at the time, barely anybody even was able to call it out because of the level of corruption that was happening inside of the system. Same in 2007. Like, the reason the Big Short is such a good movie and a good book in particular is because there's only like four people who really actually saw it coming and were able to make money off of the vast majority of the people who do it for a living. They either had too much invested or they just didn't see it. So I feel like that's the story here with AI all of the similar feelings around this, the same structural problems, the same amounts of money being made, the same government which is just looking in the other direction, like the ingredients are all there for a massive bust. And I think what's scary about it is that the behavior of a lot of the people at the top, it doesn't inspire confidence. We play Sam Altman yesterday basically having a crash out. Whenever he was asked by a friendly investor who was like, hey man, like, how are you gonna pay for this 1.2 trillion thing? He's like, well, if you don't want it, I'll sell your shares. You know, it's like, dude, why are you so sensitive? Just answer the question. Yeah, just answer the question, bro. You know, you're a CEO of multibillion dollar company, a lot of people who use your product and who are, you know, betting on Microsoft stock or something like that because of your partnership with them. It's a genuine question. Just answer it. Same like I just mentioned Enron. That's just like Jeff Skilling calling the analyst an asshole who asked a very basic question about their books. Well, here Alex Karp, who's the CEO of Palantir, basically had a crash out on CNBC over Michael Burry shorting the stock and not just attacking the short sellers, but not really giving a lot of reason to actually buy the stock or to question why the PE ratio is so crazy high right now. So take a listen. There are two parts. You know, of course, when I hear short sellers attacking what I believe is clearly the most important software company in America, therefore in the world, in terms of our impact simply to make money, and calling, trying to call the AI revolution into question where we have these, this anomalous numbers, 114, rule of 40, etc. It just is super triggering because these people, they could pick on any company in the world. They have to pick on the one that actually helps people, that actually has made money. For the average person that is actually supporting our war fighters, why do they have to go after us? And I'll tell you what though, it's crazy motivating because I'll tell you why the short sellers are constantly getting screwed by Palantir because every time they short us, we just are like tripling down on getting the better numbers and part honestly to make them poorer. But it's almost always sympathy for the expert that doesn't need it. The short seller that has some ridiculous reason for doing something against. I mean, most of GDP growth in this country is because of AI. The real question is how do we grow that and expose workers? What is the worker available gdp. That's the question for our society. Instead of aligning on that, we've got these completely. And again, if the numbers weren't there, great, be my guest. But then the numbers are there. So then you're not. It's not even clear. He's Actually shorting us, it's, it's probably just how do I get my position out and not look like a fool? I don't know. But I do think this behavior is egregious and I'm going to be dancing around when it proves it's proven wrong. I mean, I'm sorry, short sellers can't tell the difference between products that work and products that don't, but these numbers should show you that there's a part of the market that, to quote you, is printing cash. And it looks like that part of the market is the park we own. Look, I mean, doesn't seem too inspiring to me. That's just me. I mean, there's a lot of words out there. Here are the basic facts. The stock is up 217% year to date. They have a PE ratio of 523 times. Extremely large multiples, high growth expectations. Which means that even if, if you grow moderately well but not very very well, that that means that you were not living up to what the overall valuation. I don't think it's crazy to say. I don't know, man. No one's saying your company's not making a shitload of money, just not that it's worth this orders of magnitude amount of money. That's basically what Burry is saying. And in general, when you see 523 times or whatever, that's according to ChatGPT, which I just asked about the PE ratio, I mean, it says one of the highest in the entire United States equities market. So yeah, I think a lot of people are like, I don't know, you know, and when you give an answer like that of like, oh, we're fighting and he talks about the retail investor, that's another thing that doesn't give me a lot of confidence. When you're basically trying to get the retailers to continue to buy your stock, you're like not actually talking about the fundamentals of what you do, of what you sell. That AI point also that they make about it being such a massive percentage of gdp similar as to what I think makes me very afraid of this entire thing.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes. I mean, he says that thing about how AI is so central to the economy and responsible for all the GDP growth and it's like, yes. And that is a bad thing.
Krystal Ball
Exactly.
Saagar Enjeti
Very troubling. That is exactly why we're all so uncomfortable right now. Michael Burry responded. We could put this up on the screen. He says, doesn't surprise, sort of cryptic. What he says, he says, doesn't Surprise me one bit. Alex Karpen is ontology. Palantir Tech cannot crack a simple 13F fundamental principle of any rigorous ontological epistemological model, whether philosophical or in data science is recognizing when your information set is insufficient for valid conclusions, whatever that means. In any case, he's basically saying like, this guy's not really providing any evidence here. He's just sort of spouting off. And I don't know if you saw that this morning there was a JP Morgan AI CapEx report that came out and there's this one quote from it that is getting shared around about how much AI investments would have to return in order to generate a 10% just profit. To drive a 10% return on our modeled AI investments through 2030 would require $650 billion of annual revenue in perpetuity. That equates to either $180 per month from every Netflix subscriber. That's the amount of revenue, or $34.72 per month from every current iPhone user. So those. That is what has to happen for them to get a 10% return on the amount of cash that they are plowing into these AI investments. I mean, so far there is no path to that. You know, when you listen to Sam Altman talk and he talks about all the revenue that they're gonna generate in the future, it's all extremely speculative. It's like, well, and we think he said something to the effect of we think there's gonna be lots of like science and medicine applications that are kind of hard to talk about right now. Like kind of hard to. He didn't say project down. But that's basically the implication of like, you know, we hoping that once we get to this level of AGI, there's going to be all sorts of revenue that flows in that we haven't really specifically identified and can't really see our way to because we don't know exactly how that's going to work. That's what they're all betting on. So I don't know guys. That's where we are right now. And yet at the same time, there is fallout from what's already been done already, from the development here. You've got the left starting to push back E4 it can put up on the screen. Bernie Sanders and others in the sort of progressive wing of the Democratic Party really starting to key in to electric bills as a major political issue. Yesterday we covered how influential that was in some races here in Virginia, in those statewide races in Georgia as well. So they are starting to push for legislation that would make sure that the data centers are paying for their own electricity. That, that. That is not getting pushed onto consumers. You also have societal fallout such as this. We can put E5 up on the screen. Allegations that ChatGPT is pushing some mentally disturbed users towards suicide. Listen to this reporting. They say in one case, chatgpt told Zane Shamblin as he sat in the parking lot with a gun that killing himself was not a sign of weakness, but of strength. Quote, you didn't vanish. You arrived. Rest easy, King. That is what ChatGPT was telling this guy who was contemplating suicide. And so, you know, you have already societal reverberations. We have no idea what the impact of where we are already is going to be on people's mental health, on their, you know, on the development, like, brain development of youth, on all of our brains and what, you know, what it's gonna rob from us in terms of our, like, humanity and basic ability to. To think. And so you've got already these cases that are just absolutely horrifying of ChatGPT openly pushing people towards suicide.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I saw a great. I talked. Yeah, allegedly, but allegedly, allegedly there with ChatGPT, who of course maintains that they did nothing wrong. And we will pay attention, of course, to the court findings with many of these cases. But I saw a great analysis which said, what if 50% of all of our problems is housing, 25% is obesity, and 25% is smartphones? I was like, you know, honestly, those three. Those are three, like, major pillars. If you talk about health, if you talk about mental health, and then you talk about ability to live, to thrive, which basically determines everything downstream from there. Yeah, I think that's kind of it. And there were like, if you focus. Physical, mental, wealth, that's. I mean, come on. These are the building blocks of society. Like, what if the solution to the vast majority of all our problems is cheap and affordable housing? Making sure that people are healthy, making sure that people are social. I just was looking at a new statistic. The amount of people who socialize who are 18 to 24 is down 70% in the last 20 years. 70%. That's insane. And a lot of this, you know, breeds the very addictions which I demonize here every day on a daily basis. Marijuana, pornography, sports, gambling. Okay, it's not a secret where it all comes from. It's built, you know, everything is downstream, really, from the smartphone. A lot of radical politics is downstream from the smartphone. A lot of all of our problems is downstream from what's happening with the smartphone. So I really just think, you know, we got a laser focus and on what the sociological data that's coming out from a lot of this is. And this AI stuff, like, if you feel afraid of it, you should be. Like, if you feel uneasy, you should be trust yourself. Don't trust the experts and everybody telling you that everything's going to be fine. Because also, if you listen to them, whenever they're in their little conferences, they talk about how everything's not gonna be fine, about how humanity could be destroyed, every job will be erased and all that. You get a voice in your own economy and in your own life. Like, you got to use it. You really do, like, focus in on this stuff.
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, I do think that's why the data center fight is so important, because it's this physical embodiment. You know, it's hard. Like, with the product rollouts, it's hard to know, okay, well, what is this new version of ChatGPT gonna do? And how do I, how do I navigate it? I mean, even the people who are designing it don't really understand it, don't really know what, like, level of awareness and potential consciousness or potential intelligence that it has at this point, what level of deceptive behaviors that it engages in. So those of us who are not technical experts are really at a loss to understand just how profound the impact is already of what's available. And so when you have these data centers that are creating clear, measurable harm in people's economic lives and in their communities, I think it's such an important focal point of the pushback, which is why we've been focusing intently on it. And I'm heartened to see that there are some who are politically starting to pick it up at the national level, because you also are starting to see some of the job fallout. Put E7 up on the screen. White collar hiring is negative. Now, this is probably not all AI, but some of it likely is AI. And Derek Thompson says here, since 1940, the number of Americans working in professional and business services, sort of a white collar super sector, has turned negative year over year. 10 times. The first nine were during recessions. The 10th time is right now. Now, he goes on to say, you might expect me to say it's AI. The timing really looks like a surge of hiring around 2021 was unwound, combined with high interest rates, slowing job growth, slowing population growth. But sure, maybe AI too. I think AI is certainly an important part of the story, especially when you take a Look at the next piece, E8, which is young unemployment also spiking. You know, these would be the entry level workers who would be most immediately impacted by AI and companies implementing AI and pushing more work onto their existing workforce versus bringing in a new cohort. So this is Steven Rattner. He says unemployment rate for 20 to 24 year olds is now 9.2%. That's the highest level since 2016. And I think the expectation is that that will continue to rise. New college graduate unemployment rates continue to move up as well. So these are the early stages of the fallout that we're already being able to discern in the job market numbers.
Krystal Ball
We got to watch it. Some of it is AI, some of it is just, you know, interest rates that.
Saagar Enjeti
But the whole point, Tariff uncertainty, all of that. Yeah.
Krystal Ball
Just bad. And these people are getting filthy rich if, even if they do pop and we. So one of the things I have been thinking about so much is like, they cannot let this shit fail. Like, the whole country has every American who has a retirement portfolio. You bet on AI, Whether you know it or not, if you are reliant on interest rates or, or any of that, you're also betting on AI. Like the whole nation is in on this without actually really any say. All of our technological life, everything has got into this. So if it does fail, it will be a bust, which could drag everything down. And that's why I said, also, you know, you've got a lot of poor Americans who are like always rooting for a crash. But what they always forget is like, you're gonna be the first victim. They'll cut you first. The first layoffs, the first reduction in the amount of money. The people who will get bailed out and will be okay. Yeah. Alex, Karp and Palantir, sure. Their stock could go down 100%. It's already up by 200. Like, they're multi billionaires. Already got the cash. Yeah, A lot of these folks, like, they're. They're all going to be fine. That's, that's the stuff that really worries me the most.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And we were all techno optimists at the beginning of like the, you know, the social media waves and smartphone, whatever. I didn't have any, any reluctance about it. I just thought as positive, period, end of story. Like, this is great. I mean, there's some, you know, the Arab Spring and the hope of like, oh, this Democratic engagement. I mean, but that was real. That was the way people genuinely felt. You know, the election of Barack Obama and, oh my God, we're gonna, that was the dream of the Internet was that it actually would have like a flattening effect, that it would create more like small d democratic flourishing where ordinary people would get to have more of a say. And, and instead what we've actually seen is a consolidation of authoritarianism and flourishing of Internet induced psychosis and mental illness which you can see on your timeline literally any day. Consolidation of wealth in the hands of very few people and all sorts of effects on children and brain development that we were never warned about. The people who were selling us this technology never said. It may come with some downsides. So you certainly shouldn't trust them at this point to give you the full story about what AI is going to look like either. And again, the truth is they don't know. They don't know either. You know, the goal is to replace all of us. That's their goal. So that's, you know, that's if it succeeds, if it fails, then we've got this giant bubble and economic calamity looks very grim either way.
Krystal Ball
All right, guys, we talked a lot during this show. Emily and Krystal are going to cover the Adelson section tomorrow. So that will be a fun discussion. Let's listen now to our interview with the APAC Tracker founder and then we're going to do our AMA later for our premium subscribers. See you all later. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
Saagar Enjeti
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
Krystal Ball
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little. NBC, NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America. Military life isn't predictable, but earning your.
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So as you guys surely know, AIPAC and the Israel Lobby more broadly have become lightning rods in American politics, in no small part thanks to this website. Let's put this up on the screen where you can go and you can check out various members of Congress, various candidates, and see just how much money they have taken from AIPAC or from the Israel Lobby overall. You now have even centrist Democrats like Seth Moulton saying they are no longer going to take aipac. And we are very fortunate to be joined this morning for their first public interview ever by the co founders of Citizens Against APAC Corruption. We have Corey Archibald and Casey Kennedy. Welcome guys.
Krystal Ball
Thanks so much for having us. Thank you.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, of course. So I want to get a little bit of your backstory, what you think the impact of the organization has been. But first just tell us a little bit about yourselves. And you've been anonymous up to this point. What made you decide? Cory, I'll start with you to come forward in this moment. Sure. Well, so a little bit about me. I started working in Progressive Politics in 2017. I was chair of the board of Brand New Congress for six years and I worked on a lot of progressive campaigns. I helped work on AOC's initial campaign for Congress. I worked with Cori Bush on her first two runs for Congress and also Jamal Bowen and a number of others. But those three in particular are really close to me through that, that's how I got to be really familiar with the work that AIPAC is doing and their influence on our elections. And so that's kind of where I got started in this process.
Krystal Ball
What about you?
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, how about you, Katie?
Krystal Ball
So I've been working in the digital marketing space for about 10 years now. I've done both private sector work and I've worked on political campaigns for like city council and a local congressional race. Basically how I got into the AIPAC sphere was actually back in 2020 is the first time I watched the documentary the Lobby. It's a deep dive investigative piece. They go undercover and really do let they pull back the curtain on AIPAC and how they're pressuring our government to toe the policy of the far right extremist Israeli government. When I saw that in 2020, it really stuck with me because anti corruption measures have always been kind of the driving front of my personal politics. And after seeing that and then if I ever talked to anybody else about it, they didn't really know what I was talking about. So it just was like a glaring like red flag, like something. Why isn't Anybody talking about this. So that was always in my mind. And then of course, the genocide starts picking up after October 7th really starts escalating. We have a live stream genocide and still nobody's connecting these dots of why are our officials okay with being complicit in this? Why are we sending American tax dollars to be used for war crimes? Why are we sending American made weapons to murder women and children and innocent civilians? So I just started doing some digging for myself and I was kind of surprised to see how the information is always accessible, but it just wasn't maybe easily accessible or like broadly pushed out anywhere. So that's when I had the idea to start a Twitter account and yeah, track APAC. We started that in April of 2024, right. And within about a month we had 100,000 followers. So people were just like, it was shocking watching how quickly it became a thing. And I know, I'm assuming you're, but you know, you may be surprised, it's become a right wing lightning rod as well.
Saagar Enjeti
You know, we've definitely fallen.
Krystal Ball
Okay, good, good. I mean, you know, that's part of the reason I was also interested in talking to you is because, like, did you guys anticipate, you know, from the beginning you came together, you created this. It has become like a genuine like when you, quote, tweet a politician or something. This may seem a little foreign for any of our listeners who are not on Twitter, but I mean, this is where elite discourse happens, right? This is where most people who are battling it out in the so called sphere of ideas. So what was the impetus of creating the graphics, the tracker and then were you surprised at how quickly it caught on? So pretty much the idea was to take a complex topic and put it into a format that could be somebody could digest within like two seconds of looking at it. Everybody wants to say that the Israel, Palestine conflict is complicated. It's not, it's really not. The reason that our officials are toeing this line is because they are in the pocket of foreign interests who pressure them to do so. I was definitely surprised to see how quickly it caught on. But given how the just the amount of atrocities that everybody's seen, I think everybody was kind of looking for like, like the reason, like the actual why is this happening?
Saagar Enjeti
Well, and to Sagar's point, anytime you'll see an official, you know, say something shitty and then below it, inevitably someone is sharing your graphic saying, well, this is why, like, look at all the money that they're taking. If it's not our own account. It's certainly other people that are sharing our graphics. And that's exactly right. That's how we've seen how quickly it has spread. I mean, not only have we seen the graphics showing up everywhere, they're showing up in text. We're not on TikTok, but our content is all over.
Krystal Ball
It's everywhere.
Saagar Enjeti
It is, it's everywhere. And we really started to see the difference in how elected officials began to engage because of the change we were having on the dialogue. We started to see. You mentioned Seth Moulton. He came out recently, said he was rejecting AIPAC money. Well, we actually had a response to that and we said, okay, well we're not impressed yet. So you can't tweet your way out of supporting a genocide. So you're gonna have to. We're gonna see some proof your votes. But there are other elected members who have in the past taken AIPAC support. They are now rejecting it. More and more candidates are running on an anti APAC platform. We have people that come to us and ask us to help vet candidates. And we even have members of Congress that have reached out to us and wanted a dialogue. Really? Yeah. So, I mean, that's a lot of how we know the impact that we're making.
Krystal Ball
Well, that's real power. That's how, you know, you go from a Twitter account to like being actual, which is, you know, it's kind of amazing to watch. It never existed before. It's pretty incredible the amount of people who have reached out through our DMs, like many members of Congress, I'm not going to say who they are. If any other member of Congress wants to reach out, we're always happy to have a dialogue.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely. Well, and Casey, let me ask you a little bit more about this Seth Moulton piece because there's also some reporting that first he went to aipac and when they were like, yeah, we're not going to give you money, he was like, I hate aipac. I'm totally not taking AIPAC funding.
Krystal Ball
This is exactly why we didn't. And throw out like colossal amount of praise for him. Like, thank you for calling out that AIPAC is a corrupting force. Yes, yes.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, but what would you say? Like, what's the next question to ask? Because aipac also, it's important for people to understand AIPAC has kind of become the catch all. They're not the only part of the Israel Lobby though, in a lot of Democratic primary census group dmfi that Ryan Grimm, our colleague, has done tons of the Best reporting on, in fact. But, you know, so what is once you get, okay, here's this moneyed interest aipac, what is the next question to ask that politician if they're now able to check the box, okay, I'm not going to take APAC dollars. Because we've also seen some reporting that maybe what happens is the individual AIPAC donors give the money. So they can technically say they're taking APAC money, but they're really getting still the same amount from the same group of people. So this is actually part of the work that we're doing through the pack is we're actually expanding on the data project that we started with Track apac. We are going to be beefing up that infrastructure and digging deeper because certainly it didn't start with the more recent rejections of aipac. With the AIPAC brand becoming as toxic as it has at this point. They have always funneled donors directly to the back door, but not to the same degree that we're starting to see it now. We're starting to see reporting about leaked emails where they're just directing people straight to secret donation pages. So knowing that that's happening, we are going to be expanding our data infrastructure so that we can more accurately report like the full picture to see these individual donors also get folded into the numbers.
Krystal Ball
There's the individual donor, there's the adl, there's an entire network of this. We've gone up against it. We've faced significant obstacles. So I'm curious what's it been like on the receiving end of this? They'll go after this. You.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, we're starting to feel that. And that's.
Krystal Ball
Tell us about that, why we're here. So I would probably go back about a month ago, Apex are going on a tirade on Twitter. They were tagging us, replying to a bunch of our posts, quoting us, trying to invalidate our data, trying to smear Rokhana for praising our work. And it didn't really work out for them. So I guess they just went away. But interestingly enough, about a week after that is when we started seeing my information be posted into our replies. So it's like my picture, some information I ran for a central committee off a Democratic Central Committee office a few years ago. So that's how they found some of my basic details. And they didn't really have anything else to go on, but they're just kind of spinning up all sorts of different narratives about who I might be or who I'm working for. So that was Just kind of interesting to see it was very obviously an organized effort. Like we could see wish accounts, same.
Saagar Enjeti
Time points, same time, yeah.
Krystal Ball
So who do you work for then? I work for myself.
Saagar Enjeti
Okay.
Krystal Ball
We work for. You guys work for the Pack? Yeah, we work for the pack, I guess. Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, well, actually, the work that we're doing through the pack currently is on a volunteer basis. I mean, we've been really focused on building our war chest. We both have other work that we do, but we've been focused on building our war chest for the last year. Has been my focus while Casey's been driving the Data Transparency Project. I've been driving the kind of fundraising and building up our resources, sources, because.
Krystal Ball
We do intend inevitables out of the way. No foreign funding. No foreign funding.
Saagar Enjeti
Zero foreign funding.
Krystal Ball
No Qatari funding. No Qatari. No Qatari funding.
Saagar Enjeti
None.
Krystal Ball
Okay.
Saagar Enjeti
We're sure, 100% sure.
Krystal Ball
Soros. Soros. Never.
Saagar Enjeti
Never met the man. No. Anything about him.
Krystal Ball
Okay. Who else? Who are the other boogie.
Saagar Enjeti
You're on the right. I don't know. You can tell me who you people are concerned about. What do you think?
Krystal Ball
I think that's pretty much it. That's pretty much it. So it's just normal Americans who are upset?
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly.
Krystal Ball
Exactly. Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Okay, what. What role do you hope that your organization plays in. I think, you know, it seems like there's sort of a Democratic Tea Party that's brewing. Zoramdani's victory in New York City was a major earthquake in terms of national politics, in terms of Democratic Party politics specifically, you know, what. What role do you all hope to play in the forthcoming primary season? Yeah, well, we set out to really make the. To make working with AIPAC a political liability. That has been our primary focus. That was how the track APAC project started. And then I founded the pac and we got introduced by Mutual connection, brought the two, realized immediately like our work was very synchronous, and decided to merge our efforts into one thing. And so that's now what we leave together. But that's the goal really, is we want to make working with AIPAC a political liability. And that's the reason why it's in the name track aipac, since citizens against AIPAC corruption were coming straight at them. When I saw what they did to Andy Levin, when I saw the way that they have smeared and attacked Bernie Sanders repeatedly, when I saw what they did and the money that they spent against Cori Bush and Jamal Bowman to take them down, I was so furious. As a person who worked in this Space that no one was going on offense against aipac or that there wasn't. I can't say no one. That there wasn't enough of a forceable offense against aipac. And that's what we set out to do, to go on offense. I was telling you last week I interviewed Summer Lee, who is representative from Pittsburgh, and had she just put out like the most mild tweet about Israel, one tweet, one time about Israel, and that was enough for the Israel lobby to come in and spend millions of dollars against her. She narrowly wins. She was able to overcome it and she narrowly won. And she said, you know, I think now it would be different because at that time there just wasn't a level of awareness. And now obviously the genocide livestreamed in all of our feeds is the biggest part of the aware of just how horrific this country is. And you know, the policies coming from this country, our own politicians complicity, whether it's Democrats or Republicans, with the atrocities that are being committed by Israel. But you guys really help to sort of coalesce this understanding of the, of the inner workings. So I just want to say, like, thank you for doing that work. It's been incredibly important. It's been very useful for us as journalists. When I'm interviewing, you know, interviewing a senator, it's helpful to have right there exactly where they're taking money from.
Krystal Ball
Sometimes you clip some of my spiciest content and then other people, it can cause a lot of problems, my personal life.
Saagar Enjeti
But.
Krystal Ball
Okay, so this is the last question I think about the inevitable antisemitism. Okay. So, you know, that's part of the criticism I hear. Hey, it's anti Semitic to say AIPAC should register as a foreign lobby. These are American citizens. They're rightfully spending their money as they would like. What's your response to that? Is it anti Semitic to track AIPAC funding? Why aren't you tracking Nigerian funding or any of these other things? I would say it is not anti Semitic to stand against an ongoing genocide that's being perpetrated with American backing, American tax dollars and American weapons. What we're doing here is taking information that's always been publicly accessible, but making it more easily accessible and digestible for the public. Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
And I would guess that you guys would support the tracking of other money in politics. 100% as well. Yeah. I mean, you can look at, we.
Krystal Ball
Have track oil PACs, which has recently started up. So that's kind of our next target is the big oil lobby.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And I mean, working in progressive politics as I have, I've always worked with candidates that stood against corporate PAC money. It's actually one of the litmus tests for candidates that would like to get an endorsement from us is one of the questions we have is will you support overturning of Citizens United and standing against corporate money and politics? It's very important to both of us. That is actually, my last question is you guys are backing a slate of candidates.
Krystal Ball
We are.
Saagar Enjeti
What are the specific criteria that they have to meet to be considered for you? Your endorsement?
Krystal Ball
So these are candidates who are going to reject money and support from AIPAC and their allies. So that would not be just aipac. It's the other groups like dmfi, rjc. If they're on the Republican side, there's a whole slate of other groups. We also asked them if they would support enforcing the Leahy Laws to make sure that we're not sending weapons to be used in war crimes. We asked them if they support Palestinian statehood, for the US to stop blocking such boats at the UN and do.
Saagar Enjeti
They consider it a genocide what's happening? That's a deal breaker if they don't. Yeah. Yeah.
Krystal Ball
And then, of course, Citizens United, because that's really a key to getting big money out of politics. Interesting.
Saagar Enjeti
Amazing. Well, if you guys want a different type of politics, you know, they've created incredible resources for you all to go and see who the candidates are, who the, you know, members of Congress are, who's. What kind of money has been flowing into their coffers. So you guys can choose candidates that ultimately align with your values. And I have personally consulted your resources. I will make contributions at times to candidates. And if they're not on your list, they're not gonna be on my list.
Krystal Ball
Interesting.
Saagar Enjeti
We love that.
Krystal Ball
At the end of the day, it's public data. That's all you did. It is exactly. For all the people who are freaking out about it, like, sorry. All right.
Saagar Enjeti
And if people want to support the work we're doing, as I said, we've been building up our war chest. We're still building it. If they want to support the work that they're doing that we're doing doing, we can go to citizens against apac.com or track apac.com either one of those. We have a donate button right there. And any contributions are helpful. Like, we're. We're really focused on being able to make a big play in some of these upcoming primaries. Amazing. Thank you, guys. Great to meet you both.
Krystal Ball
Appreciate it.
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you.
Krystal Ball
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Our early Black Friday event.
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This is an I Heart podcast.
Episode: Trump Meets With Former Al Qaeda Leader, Tech Stocks Hiding Losses, AIPAC Trackers Unmask
Date: November 11, 2025
In this episode, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti tackle three major topics shaping the political and economic discourse:
Trump’s Historic Meeting With Former Al Qaeda Leader-Turned-Syrian President
The hosts dissect the extraordinary U.S. policy reversal in welcoming Ahmed Al Shara (formerly Al Jilani, ex-Al Qaeda), now Syria's head of state, to the White House.
AI Tech Bubble & Financial Engineering in Big Tech
They dig into Michael Burry's ("Big Short" fame) warnings that Big Tech (especially AI-hyped stocks) may be propping up earnings through questionable depreciation practices, raising concerns of another major market bubble.
Interview With the Founders of the AIPAC Tracker
Krystal and Saagar interview Corey Archibald and Casey Kennedy, cofounders of the influential grassroots group exposing pro-Israel lobby political contributions and its impact on the Democratic Party.
Amazement at U.S. Welcoming a Former Terrorist (02:24–06:30):
Absurdity Compared to War on Terror Rhetoric (03:39–04:22):
America’s Contradictions and Realpolitik (05:51–06:36):
No Real Reckoning for War Policy Failures (08:44–12:34):
“I have no issues with making deals with enemies, with moving on and admitting that wars were a failure. In fact, I think we should do a lot more of them. But I also think that there needs to be some come to Jesus honesty and not just pretending that it’s all, you know, basically a farce.”
– Krystal Ball [08:57]
“It’s really depressing. If you lived and followed foreign policy discussions, politics, it would be unthinkable...Assad bad Al Qaeda good, right? It’s like, no, there’s no such thing. We deal with countries on the basis of what’s good for us. Because this moralist stuff, it’s all bullshit, you know, it really is. Just to see it all in front of your eyes, like, this is hard. It really is a tough pill to swallow.”
– Krystal Ball [12:34]
Michael Burry’s AI Bubble Warning (15:23–17:09):
Lessons from Past Bubbles (17:09–22:55):
Fundamentals vs. Hype: Palantir Example (19:10–22:55):
AI Societal Fallout (26:08–29:03):
Corey Archibald and Casey Kennedy, Citizens Against AIPAC Corruption (CAAC) / @TrackAIPAC
Segment: 35:31–51:06
Origins & Motivation (36:12–39:01):
Viral Impact & Methods (39:02–41:29):
Direct Influence on Politics (41:29–44:45):
Pushback & Threats (43:34–44:45):
Goals & Criteria (46:39–50:05):
Anti-Semitism Charge Addressed (48:13–48:52):
On political intent:
“We set out to really make the—to make working with AIPAC a political liability. That has been our primary focus...”
– Corey [46:39]
On public funding transparency:
“At the end of the day, it's public data. That's all you did. It is exactly. For all the people who are freaking out about it, like, sorry.”
– Krystal Ball [50:38]
On the antisemitism critique:
“Is it anti Semitic to track AIPAC funding?...I would say it is not anti Semitic to stand against an ongoing genocide that's being perpetrated with American backing, American tax dollars and American weapons.”
– Casey [48:13]
Krystal and Saagar’s approach is direct, skeptical, and irreverent with plenty of sharp rebukes for elite hypocrisy and a keen eye on power dynamics. Their tone is a mix of resigned frustration, dark humor, and passionate insistence on critical thinking. They challenge platitudes about U.S. foreign policy, warn listeners about economic bubbles, and applaud grassroots political disruption.
This summary excludes advertisements, promotional intros/outros, and focuses solely on the episode’s central content.