11/12/25: Jon Stewart Shreds Dems For Cave, Economy Bleeding Jobs, MAGA In Shambles Over Economy

Summary

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Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar – Episode Summary

Date: November 12, 2025
Episode: "Jon Stewart Shreds Dems For Cave, Economy Bleeding Jobs, MAGA In Shambles Over Economy"
Hosts: Krystal Ball and Sagar Enjeti | iHeartPodcasts

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Overview of the Episode

The November 12, 2025 episode of Breaking Points dives into the political tumult surrounding the recent government shutdown, the heated backlash faced by Democratic leadership—especially Chuck Schumer—for what many see as a “complete cave-in” with no gains for the party, and the broader sense of economic frustration rippling through the country. The hosts examine fresh jobs numbers, alarming trends in the labor market, and growing discontent among both progressive Democrats and the MAGA right over the faltering U.S. economy and stagnant politics. Notable guests and media clips (including Jon Stewart and analysis from major networks) provide context, while the episode maintains Breaking Points’ trademark mix of candor, skepticism, and sharp populist critique.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Democratic Infighting and Chuck Schumer's Leadership at Risk

[02:26–18:45, 21:17–36:28]

• Shutdown "Cave" and the Jon Stewart Takedown

  • The episode opens with the impending end to the government shutdown and the enormous frustration among Democratic voters, especially with Senate leader Chuck Schumer. Krystal highlights that even Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries are upset with Schumer’s handling of negotiations ([02:26]).
  • Jon Stewart mocks Democratic leaders for their lack of backbone (see Notable Quotes).

• Grassroots Revolt and Shifting Dynamics

  • Krystal emphasizes: “You did the longest shutdown in history to get literally nothing right after you had some of the most decisive electoral results that I've seen in my lifetime. What are we doing here?” ([09:13]).
  • CNN’s Harry Enton reports Schumer’s historic unpopularity among his own party (“least popular Dem Senate leader ever… underwater with Democrats –4 points,” [11:46]).

• Impending Primary Challenges

  • Both hosts predict a generational shift, with progressives like AOC potentially poised to challenge Schumer:
    • Krystal: “I think if AOC runs against him, she would destroy him. I don't even think it would be close at this point.” ([13:25–13:31])
    • Sagar: “As the shutdown ends, Chuck Schumer is in more trouble now than when it started.” ([13:31])

• Disconnect Between Electeds and Base

  • The hosts argue that traditional leaders see themselves as deal-makers and fundraisers, but “the base…wants Democratic leadership…leading a public effort, a public fight.” ([15:05])
  • Krystal: “The Democratic Party has a democracy problem. They do not feel that they need to listen to their voters at all.” ([17:00])

Notable Quotes:

• Jon Stewart, mocking Dems’ capitulation:
  “‘Democrats, you sold out the entire shutdown not to get what you wanted, but for a promise to not get what you wanted later.’” ([08:06])

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2. Media, Base Criticism, and the "MSNBC Revolt"

[21:17–28:44]

• Sagar notes that criticism of Schumer is so mainstream, “When you’ve lost The View, Crystal…Chuck Schumer is seriously in trouble, and the Democratic establishment is seriously in trouble.” ([23:23])
• Krystal details how even typically loyal MSNBC hosts (e.g., Rachel Maddow) are furious, while only Lawrence O’Donnell defended Schumer.
• Krystal counters O’Donnell’s claim Schumer is irreplaceable: “I could pick a random person off of the street and would do a better job at this point…” ([26:59])
• Summer Lee (previous guest): “We need a new model of leadership that is in touch with the grassroots base.” ([15:48])

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3. Role of Corporate Lobbying and the Airline Industry

[28:44–33:44]

• Sagar and Krystal discuss reporting (The Lever, Politico Influence) showing airline lobbyists swarmed Congress, and that “seven out of the eight [Democrats who voted to end the shutdown] have taken large sums from the [airline] industry.” ([31:04])
• Krystal: “People forget how powerful the airline lobby is in D.C.… The money is influential, impactful in terms of their thinking.”

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4. Filibuster Debate: Real Excuse or Structural Problem?

[31:04–36:28]

• Krystal pins blame for inaction on Dems’ reliance on the filibuster as an excuse: “These corporate type Democrats…love having an excuse for why they can’t deliver.”
• Sagar notes ending the filibuster would bring “more direct consequences of our votes… helpful at this point,” compelling senators to actually vote and be held accountable ([33:44]).
• Both agree the filibuster is part of the reason Congress cedes power to the presidency, feeding into executive overreach.

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5. Bleeding Jobs, Economic Angst, and Illusions of Prosperity

[39:24–58:01]

• ADP Data and Economic Malaise

  • New ADP jobs data shows possible private sector job losses; with government statistics unavailable, private sources are more relied upon ([39:24]).
  • Krystal: “People in their own lives are experiencing a lot of economic hardship… used to be, the general sense was, okay, if corporate America is doing well, then Americans are probably doing pretty well too. Those two things have become completely disconnected.” ([39:56])

• Consumer Sentiment vs. Corporate Sentiment

  • Sagar: “Consumer sentiment is at historic lows… corporate sentiment is near all-time highs. That tells you everything about the tale of two economies.” ([39:56–42:15])

• Ghost Jobs Phenomenon

  • “Ghost jobs” (job postings never meant to be filled) muddy the real jobs picture:
    • Krystal: “For a lot of people who’ve been in the job market, it will probably ring very true that this is what's going on.” ([56:03])
    • Sagar: “Experts here don’t exactly know what the real story is… let alone with changes in immigration enforcement and artificial intelligence.” ([57:24])

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6. Republican Policy Vacuum: No Real Answers on Health Care or Affordability

[44:18–49:12]

• Sagar mocks Speaker Mike Johnson’s “notebooks full of ideas” on health care as vaporware: “If they had notebooks, we would probably expect to hear a little bit more about what’s in those notebooks.” ([44:40])
• Krystal: “The truth of the matter is Republicans have given up on healthcare... Democrats also had kind of given up... the Republicans have a point when it comes to the subsidies just going straight to the health insurance companies... but zero indication that Republicans want to do that at all.” ([44:53])
• Sagar: “There is no Republican plan waiting in the wings that Trump could shepherd through like a good old tax cut bill. And you know what? It matters to every single American family…” ([47:32])

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7. MAGA Backlash and Fraying on the Right

[60:39–78:39]

• Trump Administration Under Fire from MAGA Base

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Besant’s testy CNN interview regarding the Argentina “bailout” highlights elite defensiveness ([61:22]).
    • Krystal: “He thinks he’s got such a gotcha there, but in reality, I mean, it is a bailout… That is an appropriate term.” ([62:07])
  • Sagar discusses the uproar over Trump’s floated Argentinian beef imports, which angered both traditional beef industry and “small American farms that have put some stock in MAGA.”
  • A contentious Trump–Ingraham exchange over H1B visas reveals tension between Trump’s policy and MAGA's populist base ([64:45]).

• Viral Social Media Dissent

  • Savannah Hernandez’s widely shared social media lament encapsulates MAGA frustrations: “We voted for home affordability and we were given 50 year mortgages and debt slavery…” ([66:50])
  • Krystal: “Her point...was basically, ‘I see what you’re doing and I see that you’re trying to play us. You’re trying to substitute in this show for the actual things that we thought we were voting for.’” ([70:42])

• Voter Disaffection

  • Sagar: “Independents, 63% disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president… In any presidential election, independent voters are absolutely crucial...” ([75:35])
  • Krystal: “Every single demographic group in the country shifted away from Donald Trump and/or the Republican Party… In particular, the largest shifts came from… young men, Hispanic voters, Asian voters.” ([71:49])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jon Stewart, on Dems and the shutdown:

  “Democrats, you sold out the entire shutdown not to get what you wanted, but for a promise to not get what you wanted later.” ([08:06])

• Krystal Ball, on Schumer's future:

  “If AOC runs against him, she would destroy him. I don’t even think it would be close at this point.” ([13:25])

• Sagar Enjeti, on the “poetry” of establishment troubles:

  “As the shutdown ends, Chuck Schumer is in more trouble now than when it started.” ([13:31])

• Krystal Ball, on Dems’ disconnect from their base:

  “The Democratic Party has a democracy problem. They do not feel that they need to listen to their voters at all.” ([17:00])

• Sagar Enjeti, on the Republican health care ‘plan’:

  “If they had notebooks, we would probably expect to hear a little bit more about what’s in those notebooks. And all we can hear about is the notebooks now.” ([44:40])

• Krystal Ball, on the present economy:

  “Corporate America’s fortunes are now inversely related to the fortunes of ordinary Americans…that is the reality of where we live now.” ([39:56])

• Savannah Hernandez (quoted by Sagar), channeling MAGA frustration:

  “We voted for home affordability and we were given 50 year mortgages and debt slavery…” ([66:50])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Shutdown Drama / Schumer Backlash: [02:26–18:45], [21:17–36:28]
• MSNBC/Media Criticism of Dems: [21:17–28:44]
• Airline Lobby & Influence: [28:44–33:44]
• Filibuster Debate: [31:04–36:28]
• Bleeding Jobs/Economic Trends: [39:24–58:01]
• MAGA Backlash/Open Dissension on the Right: [60:39–78:39]
• Notable viral moments—Jon Stewart, Savannah Hernandez, Trump–Ingraham Exchange: [08:06], [66:50], [64:45]

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Conclusion

This episode captures a pivotal moment of volatility and discontent in U.S. politics, with hosts Krystal and Saagar offering a frank account of public frustration at both party establishments. From fierce base critiques (left and right), to the realpolitik of corporate lobbying, to the urgent disconnect between economic statistics and lived reality, the conversation paints a picture of institutional weakness during a time of acute public need—a pressure cooker scenario with major implications for both political parties and for working-class Americans across the country.

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Transcript

[Ad Host]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Krystal Ball]

I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Don'T trust much of anything.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

It's the rage bait.

[Krystal Ball]

It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.

[Krystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Sagar Enjeti]

This is the only place where you.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Can find honest perspectives from the left.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Krystal Ball]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Morning and welcome to Breaking Points. You just got a lonely studio camera shot. That's because Ryan is traveling today. So I'm very happy to be joined by the one and only Crystal Ball. Crystal Good morning. How are you?

[Krystal Ball]

Good morning. How's it going?

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's going great, but we were just talking before the camera started rolling that actually it doesn't seem to be going well for literally any anyone in the country right now because we're about to talk about how Democrats are furious with Chuck Schumer. And Republicans maybe are getting increasingly impatient with the Trump administration on a couple of different fronts. We're going to break that down. Might have something to do with the jobs numbers we're going to cover in the show as well. But we're going to be starting with the shutdown, which is set to end with a House vote today. Obviously, the shutdown has Democrats enormously frustrated with Chuck Schumer and party leadership. Actually, even party leadership like Hakeem Jeffrey Freeze is reportedly annoyed with Chuck Schumer. So whether Chuck Schumer can withstand this wave in future leadership votes, that's going to be a serious question on the table going forward. Chris, we've got some jobs numbers from ADP because the government's not putting them out, don't we?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. So those numbers have become increasingly important, the ones that are put out by private outfits like adp. So we'll take a look at those. Not looking great in terms of the economy not feeling that golden age so much. I think most of America also not feeling that golden age. And that is fueling some of the MAGA revolt, the early, early stage signs of MAGA revolt as well. We have some indications ICE might be leaving Chicago and also DHS is going after me. So that's a fun one. Ben Shapiro has thoughts on affordability and you have thoughts on Ben Shapiro thoughts. And I have thoughts on your thoughts on Ben Shapiro thoughts. So we'll get that one. And then of course, since it's a ladies show or a hoe show as we like to call it, we had to dig into this trend of mar a lago face. So DC Plastic surgeons are saying that more and more people, men and women, by the way, this is equal opportunity, are coming in looking for a, a look where it's like used to be the thing that if you got work done, you don't really want people to notice. You want it to look natural. They're overtly like, no, no. I want people to know that I got massive amounts of things injected into my face and like, I want that to be advertised. So it's an interesting trend. Like, it's very actually fascinating development.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I like how you said we're going to dig into it. We read a story about it and we're going to talk about the story.

[Krystal Ball]

The breaking points, investigative journals, mostly what we do on the show.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I love the idea of the shoe letter.

[Krystal Ball]

I actually have been doing some of my own journalistic observations on this as well. So, you know, I'm not just going to go by what was put in the story. That's just an excuse to talk about something I've actually been thinking about for a while.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's going to be good. So make sure you stay tuned for that. And Katie Wilson. Right, Chris, we have an interview towards the end of today's show.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, so I recorded this with her yesterday at a time when. So this is the sort of progressive insurgent candidate for mayor in the city of Seattle. When I talked to her yesterday, she was up in the vote count by 91 votes. 91 votes. Now we've had another mail ballot drop yesterday evening after I spoke with her. She's now up by, I think between like a thousand and two thousand votes. And the later mail that's coming in now because Washington state voters, all of the voting is actually cast by mail. And the later ballots tend to be more progressive younger voters who wait till the last minute. So as those drops have come in, she's taken more and more of a lead. So it was now like pretty fully assumed she's going to be the next mayor of Seattle. And it's really quite fascinating because Seattle obviously progressive city and they prior to leading into 2020, they had quite a progressive city council. Then you had 2020, you had black Lives Matter. Seattle was a really focal point there. You also have issues with homelessness, rising crime, coming out of COVID all of that. So there was some backlash elections that led to some more sort of centrist candidates, right wing in the context of Seattle being put on the city council and also in the mayor's office. So with Katie Wilson's apparent victory here, it really sort of sweeps that slate of more centrist candidates out of office and brings back more progressives. And in fact, you know, Katie, I think is one of the more progressive people to ever hold the, the office of the mayoralty. Just as one little tease for the interview, which I really think you guys will, I think you'll enjoy. I think you'll, you know, it's, it was very interesting speaking with her and her perspective on what it would take for her to deliver in that office. And she said, look, I think I'm be judged by improvements in quality of living, in, you know, reducing chronic homelessness and in public safety. So that was very much, very much her focus and looks like the message that she brought won the day there. So excited to share that interview with you guys today.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, looking forward to that. Crystal, make sure you go to breakingpoints.com to sign up for a premium subscription to the show. If you haven't done that yet. You get the show early. And also access to the second half of the Friday shows, which Krystal, they've been pretty lit, I have to say. Recently. They've been.

[Krystal Ball]

If you're not getting the second half of the Friday show, you're missing some of the best content of the week. There's no doubt about it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's for sure.

[Krystal Ball]

Ryan. Ryan unleashed in the second half of the Friday shows.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Grim, unfiltered. Yeah. All right, let's go ahead and start with the shutdown potentially coming to an end today. So the House of Representatives is going to vote on that bill where Senate Democrats joined with Senate Republicans to pass the continuing resolution to fund the government that has the left. As Crystal is going to walk us through. Absolutely. Furious with Senate Democratic leadership, Chuck Schumer in particular is understandably bearing the brunt of the backlash. Jon Stewart addressed this on his show. Let's go ahead and take a look here at A zero.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Tonight's show will be brought to you by. I can't believe it. It's literally life or death. So Democrats have three words for this. No way. Excuse me, cave on the shutdown. Not this forceful, young, authentic Democratic party that hangs out down by the river. Democrats, you sold out the entire shutdown not to get what you wanted, but for a promise to not get what you wanted later. Where in the Art of War where.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Hold on, Crystal. This has. I mean, the criticisms of Chuck Schumer are just blanketing American airwaves. It's like impossible to get away from. We actually have some more to show, folks. But quick reaction there to Jon Stewart. No real surprise.

[Krystal Ball]

No. And I mean, what he's saying is he puts it in a comedic way, but it's incredibly obvious. You did the longest shutdown in history to get literally nothing right after you had some of the most decisive electoral results that I've seen in my lifetime. What are we doing here? And so, yeah, I mean, the insanity of it is obvious on its face. And one quick note before we play Harry Enton talking about Chuck Schumer's numbers and how historically unpopular he is with his own party. They're trying to sell. And Schumer's, I'm sure staffers were leaking to the press like, no, he didn't want the shutdown and he was totally in it for the fight. And I think it's a sign of how it is a different day in the Democratic Party and with the Democratic base. That Democratic base voters were like, that's bullshit. Like we're not stupid. We know that this deal was at least tacitly supported by leadership. Your number two guy, Dick Durbin literally voted for it. So they're not, you know, they're not gonna be snowed by these nonsense talking points. And this is really the sort of crystallization. I hate using that word because of my name, but whatever. It's the crystallization of the boiling rage that has really been simmering with the Democratic base during Trump 2.0 in general where they have felt that Democratic leadership is weak. They have felt they don't know how to fight. They have felt they don't understand the moment. You know, there was a lot of disappointment, sense of betrayal when they just for, they just didn't even bother to try to use the leverage they had earlier during the administration. You know, they've been very, you know, they, they told Jasmine Crockett basically to like sit down and shut up and stop being so outspoken. They've been extremely reluctant to go after Trump on immigration abuses and ICE and National Guard abuses in cities. They've just been incredibly lame, cringe and tepid. And the Democratic base is done with it. So that's really, and to connect this to Zoran's win and what's going on in Maine with Graham Platner and the types of candidates that are succeeding right now, there is a sense, I think an accurate sense from Democratic leadership. They've lost control of the base of the party in a way that we've really never seen before previously. If they said it wasn't us, it was who. It was the Republicans. It was these few rogue bad senators like Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema. The base largely bought that those days are over, which is why you now see this historic unpopularity for Chuck Schumer. Let's go ahead and play CNN's analysis on that front.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Least popular Dem Senate leader ever. I looked at all of the polls going all the way back since 1985. The one who has the lowest rating among Democrats is in fact Chuck Schumer. Look at this. He's underwater with Democrats. His own party. He's underwater. He's at minus four points. That makes him the least popular guy for a Dems Senate leader going all the way back since the mid-1980s at least Dems in Congress do too little to oppose Trump during the first term. It was just 46% in 2017. That's the percentage of Democrats who said that the Dems in Congress are doing too little to oppose Donald Trump. Look at where we are now 69%. That is a increase of, get this, 23 points. The super, super duper majority of Democrats believe that the Democrats in Congress are not doing enough to oppose Donald Trump. And that of course is a big, big, big, huge criticism of Chuck Schumer and that is why he is underwater. But of course, the ultimate way to get Chuck Schumer out of office is to beat him in New York State. So how do New York state Democrats feel about Chuck Schumer? And take a look here, the net favorable among New York Democrats. Chuck Schumer is above water with the Democrats in his home state, but just by 16 points. Look at Alexandria Ocasio Cortez running way ahead. If she decides to challenge Chuck Schumer come 2028, she's got a real leg up on the competition. I dare say at this point she would be the favorite to beat him, which would be something that would just blow my mind even just a few years ago, given that Chuck Schumer, of course, is a New York born bred type of guy.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So Kristen, this is, there's nothing poetic.

[Krystal Ball]

I think if AOC runs against him, it's, it's like there's, she would destroy him. I don't even think it would be close at this point.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You know, I was going to ask you that. And when I look at this, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries were persuaded into this shutdown because they're actually trying to do what Nancy Pelosi sort of successfully did in Trump 1.0, which is kind of put the lid on the simmering pot of populist anger. It's not even just populist anger. It's like anger across the board among average Democrats and people in their own caucus. And that's what they were trying to do here. They were trying to like head off the potential problem of a revolt and give the base what they wanted so that they would kind of calm their criticism. And the poetry of it is that as the shutdown ends, Chuck Schumer is in more trouble. He's in more trouble now than when it started. I mean, I think that's pretty obvious at this point that the, the leadership is unsuccessfully tried to stave off the revolt by going into the shutdown and by then ending the shutdown a week after those election wins in particular with no real commitment from Republicans on a real problem for Republicans, by the way, which is heading into a midterm year having many people's premiums spike with the expiration of those Biden ERA credits. They Got nothing out of it. They got some fundraising out of it. I'm sure they got some energy from organizing and all of that out of it. Sure. But people wanted a whole lot more and now rather than staving that off, it stoked the fire even more.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's exactly right. No, I mean Demti Party is fully here, fully here. And I'm going to make a prediction. There are going to be some Democratic incumbents who are primaried, who lose to random, in their view, nobodies who have never held political office, never been in the political fray. You're gonna see some come out of nowhere surprises from, you know, from just everyday people who are disgusted with the failures of Democratic leadership. And you know, one thing I was thinking about, because it doesn't appear that like Chuck Schumer's leadership role is gonna be threatened in any way by the elected Democrats at this point. You have had a number of people in the House led by Ro Khanna, kudos to him for understanding the moment, who have come out and said Schumer should go. Not a single Democratic senator though, to include Bernie Sanders, who got asked about it and was basically like, yeah, well what are you gonna do? You know, this is just how it is. So I don't see Democratic electeds in the Senate making any moves to toss him out of leadership. However, you know, and I think it comes in part from, look, their comfort with the status quo, whatever. I also think it comes in part from an old fashioned view of what Senate or House leadership should be. So sort of the classic role is this very insider role, right? You're fundraising, you're handling the legislative like the strategy, and you're whipping helping to whip votes. That's this sort of internal role. And the frustration with the Democratic base is they want Democratic leadership in the House and the Senate to be leading a public effort, a public fight. They want them to be sort of activist leaders in the streets, fighting in a visible way. And Summer Lee made a comment to this effect when I spoke with her last week, when I interviewed her last week, she was like, they need to understand that we need a new model of leadership that is in touch with the grassroots space that is leading the charge in terms of movements and activism on the ground. And so I don't think that, you know, a lot of the senators in the Democratic caucus, many of whom are old, including Bernie, who's, you know, quite elderly at this point. I don't think they really understand why people are so frustrated in the and the role they actually want A Chuck Schumer to be able to fill. Because if you're a Democratic senator, you know, with that class like traditional status quo model, you're like, well, he fundraises well and he does okay in the like legislative whatever. And the base is like. But that's, we don't care about that. That is not what we want to see. We want to see you guys fighting. And if you have appointed someone, you're claiming this person is a leader, we want to see them actually leading. So I think that's part of the disconnect between where the people are and where the Democratic Party elected are. Another thing I would say, and this has been abundantly clear for a while, something we've been talking about for a while, the Democratic Party has a democracy problem. They do not feel that they need to listen to their voters at all. If anything, their instinct is always to go against their voters. Especially if you're talking about the progressive wing. But now you have basically the entirety of the base that is increasingly, increasingly sort of radicalized, increasingly aligned very closely with the progressive wing of the party. And so they're still in this outdated model of like, well, we always gotta punch left. And if it's something that, you know, that our like progressives want, then it has to be something that we oppose. But what do you do when it's not just the progressives, it's the whole party that is like, you guys are screwing up big time.

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[Krystal Ball]

I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Don'T trust much of anything.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

It's the rage bait.

[Krystal Ball]

It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And this is where Chuck Schumer could actually be in trouble is when you have Graham Platner and a new generation coming in. If that happens on a populist wave, that's basically what ended up pushing John Boehner and Paul Ryan ultimately. And then I guess ultimately you could argue Kevin McCarthy as well out of office. But let's roll this clip because I think to the point you just made, Crystal, if you are Chuck Schumer, you should take a look at or you're at the DNC or the dsc. You should take a look at this clip of John Fetterman getting grilled by Sunny Hostin of the View, who I joked yesterday is like going full Jennifer Welch here about the shutdown. This is a Three Democrats had big wins last week, so you had momentum. Why give in now? Why bring a butter knife to a gunfight? Are you willing to gamble that the GOP will negotiate on health care in good faith once the government reopens? Because if that gamble is wrong, half a million Pennsylvanians that you represent, their health care costs will skyrocket. If you are wrong, and I believe you are wrong.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Well, first of all, MTG is quite literally the last person in America that I'm gonna take advice or to get their kinds of my leadership and values from. And now if Democrats are celebrating crazy pants like that, then that's on them. And now I don't need. And I don't need a lecture. I don't need a lecture from whether it's Bernie or the governor in California because they are representing very deep blue, blue kinds of populations. I promise you, this isn't a political game. It is viewed by that, by many of us. But the reality is 42 million Americans now not sure where their next meal's gonna come from. And because we vote like that, vote like that, or people that haven't been paid for five weeks now, and that kinds of chaos, those workers borrow more than half a billion dollars from their credit union just to pay their bills now. So for me, we're in the middle of this.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Senator, when you've lost the view, Crystal. But, like, actually, seriously, the view is sort of. I don't know the best way to describe it, but maybe center left is one way. They're just kind of like the most moderate Democrat. That's probably a suburban, moderate, affluent Democrat viewership. And if that's what you're seeing, if that's what the kind of average suburban leans left mom is watching in the middle of the day, fiery rants at John Fetterman. Chuck Schumer is seriously in trouble, and the Democratic establishment is seriously in trouble.

[Krystal Ball]

I think it's the beginning of the end for Schumer. I don't know if it'll be in a primary in 2028, to be honest with think if AOC jumps in that primary fight, I don't even know if he. He may just retire because it would be embarrassing, obviously, to lose to her and I.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, you'd think that about Andrew Cuomo and you think you would. Joe Biden.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Well, he just seems to have a humiliation fetish. So that's a different psychology that we'll have to analyze there. But in any case, with Schumer, assuming he doesn't have a humiliation fetish, which, you know, we don't know yet. But. But, you know, I think certainly AOC would take him out in a primary, and there's probably other New York, New York State candidates who could easily take him out in a primary as well, she's just the. The best known and the one that people love to, you know, love to, to analyze. And I think she's certainly thinking about it. You know, indications are she and her team are debating do I run against Schumer or do I actually run for. For president? And I don't think that they've come to a decision in that regard. Personally, I think she'd be a fantastic senator from New York. And again, it would be a cakewalk to defeat him if he even bothers to try. And then, you know, in terms of the next leadership elections, you are going to have a real revolt on your hands. There is going to be mass pressure put on these Democratic senators to go in a different direction. And, you know, on msnbc, I've been watching it some these past couple of days because it's been kind of interesting to see where they land. And the vast majority of them are furious as well. You know, they are disgusted. They are shocked that, you know, that they caved at this moment. I talked yesterday about how Rachel Maddow did her whole opening rant on like, guys, we just had the no kings protest. Largest action literally in history. You had these election results, and now is the time you cave when you literally got nothing for it. Like, what the hell? And she, I don't know that I've ever really seen her criticize the Democratic Party. Certainly not in that forceful or forthright a way. She's one to sort of like, hint in a direction, but that fully take a stand. Somewhere here she was taking a stand, and then she had Bernie Sanders on as her guest to back it up. But there was one MSNBC host, Lawrence o', Donnell, who comes on right after Rachel Maddow, who did actually defend Chuck Schumer.

[Sagar Enjeti]

A lonely voice crying out in the wilderness.

[Krystal Ball]

Very courageous of him at this point, actually, in a certain way. Let's go ahead and take a listen to the. The case that he was making for Schumer. This is a four.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

It might be easy to criticize Chuck Schumer. It is easy to criticize Chuck Schumer. It's easy to make fun of him. You can wish he were smoother. You can wish he had all the smoothness of Barack Obama. It's easy to criticize, but it is not easy to replace him. It might be easy to call for his resignation, but it is not easy to say who with a name could do a better job.

[Krystal Ball]

It actually is easy to say that I would say Chris Van Hollen or Chris Murphy. Either one of them would do a better job. I mean, Chris Van Hollen has really. He, in a certain way, is this kind of unifying figure because he's this very mainstream Democrat, you know, in the firmament of the establishment of the party. But he also was quite courageous and clever too, by the way, and creative when it came to Kilmar Abrego Garcia and leading the charge there. When it's come to Gaza and, you know, going there and looking at, okay, they're lying when they say that the, you know, that the problem for aid distribution is the U.N. the problem is the Israelis. And he's been very, you know, he's been very outspoken in that regard and I think has earned a lot of respect from progressives and liberals who see him as someone who has stood up against the Trump administration. But, you know, he's going to be able to do the fundraising and do the party insider stuff as well. So personally, I think he would be a fantastic choice. Now, he's another one who may be sniffing around at potentially running for president. I believe he had either a New Hampshire or an Iowa trip or something in that regard. In my opinion. You know, he's, he's the type, he's not like a super charismatic figure, but he seems to be clever and principled and have some decent strategic instincts. So to me, that would be, you know, his, his best use would be in something like leadership in the Senate. So the idea that Chuck Schumer, I mean, it's just farcical on its face that Chuck Schumer is so, so exceptional. How could we possibly replace him? It's like, literally, what planet do you live on? I could pick a random person off of the street and would do a better job at this point with the role of leadership that the base actually wants their party leaders to serve at this point.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, right. And I mean, part of. I'm just again, thinking back to Tea Party shutdowns. Leadership never really wanted Tea Party shutdowns. Like, they were dragged into it by Ted Cruz and whomever else. But they didn't have all those, like, specific attainable goals outlined in a lot of cases. It was kind of just for the purpose of causing trouble and getting, like, throwing a wrench into the gear of Washington. And what's interesting about this is Democrats created a pretty specific benchmark that they wanted to achieve with the shutdown, which was health care. And there's nothing that Democrats have more of an upper hand on than health care because Republicans have nothing in terms of note. What is Mike Johnson saying right now? Like, we have notebooks full of plans or something like that. They got nothing. And after all of that, concepts of a plan, concepts of a plan. After all of that, they get like, when you, when you set that specific of a benchmark and you walk away like for really no. Like the timing makes no sense. It's not as though, you know, the credits were on the table. Again, it's not until the end of the year. They expire at the end of the year. That's why this is coming up right now. So it's not like it was within a couple of days or anything like that. Speaking of the timing, let's try to figure out what it might have been because the Lever has some reporting about the airline industry which has swamped Washington, D.C. over the last couple of weeks. The next element up on the screen, just going to town lobbying people. And this was a report in the Lever that found correlation between airlines, favorite Democrats and who voted to end the shutdown. Crystal and Politico Influence had a great report last week as well about the airline industry. Just like as soon as Duffy announced the flight reductions or requested the flight reductions, that sent the lobbyists for the airline industry into overdrive. And I think that probably is as good of an explanation as any for why they voted pretty randomly on Sunday. I mean, it seemed as though even Democratic insiders were surprised. Maybe not Schumer himself, but it didn't seem like anyone actually realized this was about to be on the brink of Dems siding with Republicans. And that's exactly what happened. Seems like maybe it was the airlines.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, people forget how powerful the airline Lobby is in D.C. you know, anytime. Remember during COVID like, they always got their custom bailouts. You know, they, they're always in the ear of legislators. And then what Sirota and his team at the Lever did is just to literally look at, okay, let's take a look at the FEC contributions. Let's pull up the history. And lo and Beh, seven out of the eight of them in particular have taken large sums from the industry, which means that you're going to be in constant communication with them. And then one in particular, Jackie Rosen of Nevada is one of the largest recipients of airline lobby cash. So there's no doubt that money is influential, impactful in terms of their thinking. The other thing that I've been pointing to that I really think it's important for people to keep in mind is Trump's threat to nuke the filibuster. Republicans hated that. But these type of corporate Democrats also hate that because even if they've publicly claimed they want to get rid of the filibuster, the truth of the matter is they love having an excuse for why they can't deliver and the filibuster is the best excuse they've ever had. It is, in a sense, existential for them in order to maintain this pretense that they would love to deliver for working people, they would love to deliver for Americans, but they just can't because of this terrible rule called the filibuster. And therefore, we can never actually achieve the things that we totally promise you we actually want to achieve. So I think that was the other piece, because that likely was the other way that this ends, where Trump puts enough pressure on the Republicans, where it's like, no, you are going to get rid of the filibuster. They cave to Trump and nuke the filibuster. And in my opinion, that's a better outcome. And in my opinion, and I think the base of the Democratic Party would have accepted that too, because then it's like, okay, you fought, you did everything you could, and even if they ended up with nothing on healthcare, it's like. Like you took it as far as you possibly could. You did not give up the fight, and you pressed the case, you put health care on the table. You really put the Republicans in a difficult spot. And now the filibuster is gone. And guess what? If Democrats take back power, which is increasingly possible, at least in the Senate, in the next elections, then you're gonna be able to pass some of your priorities that in the past, you've always said you could never achieve. You could get Puerto Rico as a state, you could get D.C. as a state, you could pack the Supreme Court, you could pass legislation that actually will benefit working people. So I think that filibuster threat is another thing that freaked them out, because these corporate type Democrats need that, existentially need that as their excuse for why they can never actually really do anything big with the power that they have.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I mean, that's exactly right. I think, because you know what's made me come around on the filibuster, even recently? I always kind of go back and forth on the filibuster, but what's made me come about coming around on it recently is that it's actually healthy for the country to see more direct consequences of our votes. And I don't mean consequences in a negative way, but actually it could be positive, could be negative, that when you vote on something, you see it happen. The filibuster is not like in the Constitution. It's not like part of the. Part of the system that the framers designed. And so if you have a majority of the House and The Senate and a president to sign a piece of legislation, then the country feels what they voted for as opposed to, you know, feeling that, like constantly getting thwarted. Now, there are a lot of other things that I would, you know, do in addition to Newgie, the filibuster, to make sure that the country was running. If I could wave my magic wand in a way that I think made sense and was helpful. But that one in particular, that means people would actually have to face votes. So they would have to face votes on the floor of the Senate, the senators would have to face votes on the floor of the Senate for things that they said they would support. Medicare for all being a pretty obvious example. And then they would have to face votes from their voters who say, you told us you were going to vote for. I mean, John McCain is the best example. You told us you were going to repeal and replace. How many times?

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Times.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And then you voted no on the repeal and replace those. Actually having those votes and actually seeing more, feeling more, putting less of a buffer between what people vote for and what the country looks like is probably helpful at this point.

[Krystal Ball]

I agree completely. And the other piece is because you have a legislature that really is not interested in governing that has helped to help to create the dynamic of an executive branch that just then does everything. And so it creates. I mean, Trump is responsible for the consolidation of power and the insane ways that he uses and abuses his power. But one of the things that sort of greases the skids in that direction is if you have a filibuster that makes it impossible for Congress to do anything, then increasingly you have presidents reaching for the pen using executive power, and Congress just sort of like, I mean, they just, they just cede their power completely to the president. And they're happy. Yeah, they like have any, yeah, they're happy to not have any actual legislative responsibility. That's easier for them, that's more comfortable for them. So. So I do think that the filibuster has sort of been an under discussed part of why this thing came to an end, the way that it, in the, in my opinion, ridiculous, pathetic way that it ultimately did.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Gang of Eight. Then you have Obama doing DACA with executive order. This is. It happens all of the time. And the senators then escape the backlash. So we may have gotten something good out of it. If Dems had continued to hold out, maybe Trump would have had them nuke the filibuster. I don't know. I'm skeptical. Senate Republicans were so, so averse to that for the reasons we just discussed.

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[Krystal Ball]

No.

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[Krystal Ball]

I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Don'T trust much of anything.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

It's the rage bait.

[Krystal Ball]

It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Crystal. Let's talk about jobs. We have new job numbers from ADP. We can go ahead and put B1 up on the screen. The tear sheet from the Wall Street Journal, which is relying on the ADP numbers as well. The headline here, ADP Estimates Estimates private sector was losing jobs in October. Although we don't totally know whether this is an accurate reflection because we don't have government numbers right now. Crystal reaction to these ADP numbers, I'm not particularly surprised by them. What do you make of it?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, you know, we've been seeing things trending in this direction for a while. And I think the, that Trump has thought that he could. Look, Trump is a master at bending reality, like bending perceptions of reality. And I think he believed that he could do that with the economy as well. He could point to the stock market. We've had the government shutdown, so we're not getting government numbers. So we have to rely on numbers like adp. And we've been tracking here how people feel about the economy. Some 70% plus say that the economy is poor. That is a total reversal of where things were in Trump's first term, where they had all sorts of issues with Trump. His approval rating was underwater, but they still felt like the economy was really good. And I think that is like the central reason ultimately that he ends up back in the White House. So you have a complete flip of that. People in their own lives are experiencing a lot of economic hardship. And then we've also been tracking this slew of corporate layoffs that have been coming down the pike. And you know, it has been, we have been moving in this direction for a while. But I really think it's coming to a head now. Where it used to be, the general sense was, okay, if corporate America is doing well, then Americans are probably doing pretty well too. Those two things have become completely disconnected. The best thing you can do as a corporate boss is fire a bunch of people. Your stock price is going to go up. And so the fortunes of corporations are actually now inversely related to the fortunes of ordinary Americans. You know, that is the reality of where we live now. And so yesterday, Sagar and I covered how consumer sentiment is at historic lows. Historic lows. And as we go into the Thanksgiving and the holiday season, et cetera, you know, really bad place to be. Meanwhile, corporate sentiment is near all time highs. I mean, that tells you everything about the tale of two economies and about the way that now what benefits corporate America is directly advantageous for them and disadvantageous for your average American. So I don't think, you know, whether these adp numbers are exactly precise. I think they are probably directionally correct that there was either very little job growth or actual job losses. This is also for the time period when the government was shut down. And the government is a huge part of our economy as well.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, yeah. And so the ADP numbers, I mean it's crazy right now the way that we are trying to understand what's happening without the usual information. So payrolls firm. So ADP is estimating the private sector, according to the journal was shedding 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks through October 25th. Now it also says last week in a separate data series, ADP estimated that the private sector added 42,000 jobs jobs in October. But that figure uses a different methodology intended to replicate the government's monthly jobs report more closely. So it's just, it's, it's a mess. Just trying to understand even what's happening in the economy. But the consumer sentiment versus corporate sentiment marker is a pretty good, good one. And the, the, well, it's a good one in terms of taking the temperature of the public and in terms of Trump not, not understanding, not being able to explain away consumer sentiment or assuage consumer sentiment. I think that's really, really true, Crystal. It's a problem that the Biden administration had and they kind of went for greedflation for a little bit, but in a very half hearted way to say we understand, like yes, we're in charge of the economy, but we understand to the extent any government is in charge of the economy or any president, president's in charge of the economy, but we understand what's going on, like find another scapegoat, etc. But it was half hearted. And now for Trump, it's like he's not even looking for escape a scapegoat other than Biden. You keep saying we inherited a bad economy. Once you're a year into your presidency, which he almost says, you really have to stop saying that line about the economy you inherited because people are, it's just going to piss people off. Not only does it stop working, but it's also just going to piss people off. So here's how House Speaker Mike Johnson talked about the idea, the all the ideas that Republicans have to reduce health care costs which are going up, up, up for Americans. This is B2.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Subsidizing the insurance companies is not the answer because it just drives the cost up even further. So we need to look at the root causes. The Republican Party is the party that is working on that has been working on it and has more ideas going forward. We've got to bring down the cost, and you can do that in a responsible way that also increases access and quality of care. And we've got notebooks full of ideas on how to do that. We've got to build consensus around it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's news to me. They have notebooks of ideas of how to do this, Crystal. Because if they had notebooks, we would probably expect to hear a little bit more about what's in those notebooks. And all we can hear about is the notebooks now.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right. I'm having major flashbacks to Mitt Romney and his binders full of women. But we'll never know whether he really had those binders or not now, I guess. But, yeah, with the notebooks of ideas, it also hearkens back to Trump saying, you know, we've got a concept of a plan on healthcare. The truth of the matter is Republicans have given up on healthcare, and they just decided the best thing to do is to just hope that nobody talks about it. Like, no. And you know what? That's why they're mad at Mike in 2024. It worked, right? Kamala didn't really bring it up because Democrats also had kind of given up on health care. You know, Biden's theoretical plan was a public option, which I do think would be a significant improvement over the system that we have. Of course, I support Medicare for all. You know, I think that's the direction that we should go in. But, you know, the Republicans have a point when it comes to the subsidies just going straight to the health insurance companies. They have a point about that. I mean, that's been my criticism of Obamacare from the beginning, is you actually have to confront the health insurers. You have to confront Big Pharma. You have to confront the hospital system and the private equity barons that are rolling up those hospital systems. Like, you actually are going to have to confront capital if you're gonna deal with this thing. And there is zero indication that Republicans want to do that at all. So to the extent they ever float anything, it's like price transparency. Sure, fine. Does anyone believe that that's gonna solve the problem? The thing that Trump floated of, okay, well, instead of giving the subsidies to the health insurers, we're gonna give it to you guys in your health savings account. Okay, fine. But the reality of what's gonna happen there, that doesn't deal with prices at all. It doesn't deal with the underlying problems at all whatsoever. And what you likely end up happening, happening then is even fewer people inside the health insurance marketplace, which leads again to this death spiral situation. The people that are still there are older and sicker. And guess what? That raises premiums for everyone. So it could actually accelerate the collapse of the system we have. Which, look, maybe that's something we should be cheering for at this point. Like, I'm not really, you know, I'm not an accelerationist typically, but something apparently catastrophic is going to have to happen before legislators are really willing to confront Capitol and deal with the system. But yeah, I mean, you listen to Mike Johnson talk and I'm just hearing Marjorie Taylor Greene in my head saying, why do I have to be in like a skiff to, you know, to even stiff what a Republican healthcare plan is? And I think it was again, the ladies of view that were like, well, maybe there's not one. And she said, I think that's the real truth. And of course, obviously that is the real truth. They are not going to do anything to try to tackle healthcare. They're just gonna try to change the subject again. That is the actual strategy.

[Advertisement Voice]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

They got nothing. It is the biggest failure of the conservative project in the last, what, 15 years when they could run on repeal and replace. It became a replacement in and of itself for an actual policy because it was such a useful political bludgeon and hammer for so long that by the time they had the power to actually repeal and replace, it was abundantly obvious. There was no consensus plan and there was no good plan. There was no consensus plan because there actually was no good plan that people agreed on. And to your point about the Trump idea of giving subsidies directly to people, that's basically what we do rather to insurance companies. That's basically what we do with college tuition. And I know we're going to talk about this a little bit later in the show, just on the general question of affordability, but that has not brought down the cost of college, college tuition in any way whatsoever. So it's not a long term solution. I don't know how interested Donald Trump is in a structural long term solution. I don't think anybody is under the illusion or is under the illusion or delusion, you could probably call it that. Donald Trump wants to do like a structural long term fix to the health care system. He's never run on some type of comprehensive fix to Obamacare. Just repeal, replace, everyone will have health care. So there is no Republican plan waiting in the wings that Trump could like shepherd through like a good old tax cut. Bill, there's nothing like that for health care. And you know what? It matters to every single American family, normal American family, not ultra wealthy American family, on a monthly basis, even if you're upper middle class, your health care costs are out of freaking control.

[Krystal Ball]

That's exactly right. Yeah. No, I mean Trump, all he knows how to do is like brand plays and gimmicks. That's it. So, you know, someone brings him 50 year mortgage and is like, and with a meme that appeals to his ego and he's like, yes, let's do that. And everyone absolutely hates it because he never thinks beyond like, this compares me favorably to FDR. Let's do it. The, the fake, you know, $2,000 stimulus checks that he's, you know, claiming he's going to send out, which is 100% never ever going to happen. And already his officials are like, well, what we really mean by that is the theoretical savings that you achieved through lowering the price of avocados or whatever. It's like, you know, so I mean that's, that's really all he knows now. He's good at that branding and those gimmicks. Right? No tax on tips. I think that was very appealing in the election. You know, I think people liked that idea. But if you're actually going to govern and deal with complicated entrenched systems and entrenched interests, you're going to need a little bit more. You're going to need an ideal, an ideology. You're going to need some backbone and some will to do it. You're going to need some actual like policy knowledge. And that is never ever going to be this man who is so stupid that he would float something like a 50 year mortgage, which literally enraged absolutely everyone, as an actual plan for affordable housing.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, we're going to get to that in just one moment. Let's take a listen to Kevin Hassett here, who is the director of the National Economic Council, talking about if the shutdown had continued, he was on Face the Nation over the weekend. There would have been a negative quarter. Well, that I guess may still happen.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Here's B3, Goldman Sachs, they have a top economic team and they're estimating that we've already knocked about one and a half percent off of gdp. I think that number is probably low if we keep going even a couple more weeks because there's going to be a massive amount of air disruption, especially around the holidays. And one of these things every now and then when we're talking economics, you and I, we talk about seasonal Adjustments and things like that. But the fact is, is that Thanksgiving, that Thanksgiving time is one of the hottest times of the year for the economy. It's, you know, Black Friday and all that kind of stuff. And if people aren't traveling at that moment, then we really could be looking at a negative quarter for the fourth quarter.

[Sagar Enjeti]

All right, and here's a.

[Krystal Ball]

Why is he smiling when he says that?

[Sagar Enjeti]

I don't know. Here's a tear sheet from Reuters. The headline is US 4th quarter GDP could be negative if Shutdown Drags On. White House Economic advisor says just about what he mentioned there on Face the Nation. So I guess, Crystal, some of this could be getting at the pressure that Democrats were under hearing from. I mean, he's citing Goldman Sachs there. I'm sure Democrats were hearing from some of their friends at places like Goldman Sachs about some of those very same numbers. And, you know, we were talking about the airlines pressuring Dems to cave on the shutdown. I'm sure this worked its magic with some of those Democrats as well.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, no doubt about it. And you know, for a top White House official to be saying we could be looking at negative GDP growth in the fourth quarter is pretty stunning. We also had Scott Besant previously saying, effectively admitting that some sectors of the economy are already in a recession. So even this administration, which is happy to spin and to lie about, you know, basically everything, is having to acknowledge some measure of reality because it's just becoming too obvious to whether you're someone who's on Wall street looking at the numbers, looking at activity, whether you're a regular person just going about your life. It's becoming too obvious to deny. And it's worth saying in terms of the shutdown impact, first of all, the government is still technically shut down. Right now. I live in a town where most of the economic activity is centered around this naval base that does a lot of civilian research. A lot of people have been furloughed. There's. I'm getting questions at gymnastics about like, so when are we getting paid again? When is that happening? I don't know. I have no idea. So in any case, it'll be a while even before things are back up and fully running. And then the impact, and Sean Duffy admitted this, the impact of the airports is going to be long lasting. We were already in a dire situation with a lack of air traffic controllers. Now you've had people who couldn't go this long without a paycheck and they left and they're gone or they're just sick of being treated in this way. Like, you know what? I thought working for the government meant that I had a steady and reliable job and clearly I don't. So I'm gonna go and do something else with my life. Those are going to be long lasting impacts that are going to, I think, bleed over into holiday, Thanksgiving, travel. It's just right around the corner. So, you know, for HACCP to be sounding the alarm here about negative GDP growth I think is quite exceptional. And the last thing I'll say about that is we've of course been tracking how almost all of the GDP growth anyway has just been this giant bet, giant speculative bet on AI has been the entirety of GDP growth anyway that has been covering up a lot of other underlying problems in the economy, including in other corporate stocks, consumer centered stocks in particular, all of which are underperforming stock indexes in, you know, in Europe and other parts of the world. So, you know, if even with the AI hysteria, you are having negative GDP growth, that's a really ugly place to be.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And I wonder actually if we do see that they blame the shutdown, if that's what looking back on it, if that becomes the line for the administration is, you know, they're looking to either say we inherited this economy, it's such a mess, but there's, there's so much going on in this economy that you and Sagar have covered recently. Let's go ahead and put this next element up on the screen. This is a CNBC report on ghost job postings, which the headline here says are adding another layer of uncertainty to the stalling jobs picture. Since the beginning of 2024, job openings have outnumbered hires by more than 2.2 million a month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That points to ghost jobs that never seems to get, that never seem to get get filled. This is a really shocking report, Crystal, because it's one of those things you just, it's not even on your radar. And then when you look at it, this is part of the article, Job openings have generally been on the decline since peaking above 12 million in March 2022, when opportunities outnumbered available workers by better than 2 to 1. In August, latest month for which data is available because of the government shutdown, openings totaled more than 7.2 million, while hires were just 5.1 million. The ratio of vacancy to workers was about even. What did you make of this, Crystal? Because to me it just seems to be another wrinkle in the enormously complicated picture of an economy that feels like a total bubble Right now?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it feels fake in a lot of ways. And so ghost jobs make sense as part of that picture. You know, we covered statistics about how many more job applications new college graduates are having to put out just in an astonishing number. And then for even with that additional effort, put in for worse results where they're not getting as many jobs. The unemployment rate for new college grads is going up. And so, you know, people who are going on, whatever the, the resume, what does it indeed do? What are the resume websites now? I forgot when I was coming out of college, it was Monster, I think was the one we went to. But in any case, they're looking at these job openings and it's like, okay, I've applied for a million of these. Who is even getting these jobs? And apparently in some significant number, the answer is no one. These are just sort of hanging out there in the ether, fake job postings that never get filled. So you have this perception of like, oh, there's all these, you know, job openings and you know, surely one of them, surely one of them will be interested in me at least for a callback. But the reality is that they're, they're actually, I don't know, just, they're just been hanging out there and no one bothered to delete them. They like to keep them out there to have resumes coming in in case at a, you know, last minute notice need to bring in someone for some purpose or other. But I think for a lot of people who've been in the job market, it will probably ring very true to them that this is what's going on.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I think that's right. And this is also part of the data package that economists use to understand where the economy is going. And some of the reactions in the CNBC story here are like, well, that's not helpful because right now we're trying to actually understand where things are going, what the real story is. And it's a reminder that honestly, the experts here don't exactly know what the real story is, let alone with changes in immigration enforcement and then changes in artificial intelligence, how rapidly that is sweeping different professions. So things do not feel good, that is for sure.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, indeed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And maybe that explains the MAGA revolt we're about to cover for period protection.

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Don'T trust much of anything.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

It's the rage bait.

[Krystal Ball]

It feels like it's trying to divide people.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There are rumblings of impatience with the Trump administration here in Washington D.C. among some people. Now, of course, there's always going to be some rumblings of discontent with any political party, but I'm just here to convey this is getting to be a little bit louder by the day. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant was on Morning Joe yesterday and asked about that Argentinian beef Bailout. Dare we call it a bailout? Not the. Not the beef bailout. I'm sorry, there was the beef bailout. This is the. The market bailout. Here we go. This is Scott Besant responding to some questions. Listen to exactly the language that he uses and doesn't use.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

How does a $20 billion bailout of Argentina help Americans? Do you know what a swap line is? It's currency swap. Yes, yes, but what is that? You're the Treasury Secretary. Yes, but why would you call it a bailout? That is how, in most bailouts, you don't make money. The US Government made money. We used our financial. We used our financial balance sheet to stabilize the government, one of our great allies in Latin America during an election. The president there won in a landslide. The government's going to make money. And I would rather use peace through economic strength than have to be shooting at narco boats coming offshore if the government collapsed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

All right, well, there were some, you know, friends of.

[Krystal Ball]

Bitchy. He's so bitchy there. Right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, he's.

[Krystal Ball]

Do you even know what a swap line is? Why would you call that a bailout? Define it. Define swap. Like, he thinks he's got such a gotcha there, but in reality, I mean, it is a bailout. That is an appropriate term to use.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, Both can be true. You can make money on a, quote, bailout. Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. Even if your technical, financial engineering, you know, has a different term as well. That doesn't change the dynamics. Dynamics. Okay. You have a swap line for that. Do you have a swap line for other countries? No. You don't. Right. Because you specifically wanted to prop up this country because you, Scott Bessant, have, you know, your buddy's money is on the line with regard to these hedge funds that had bet big on Argentina. And by the way, you wanted to intervene in their upcoming elections, which you did successfully and helped to forestall what looks to be incoming electoral losses for Javier Milei. So, like, no one is. No one is buying this bullshit.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, yeah, and the reason that slipped up and said beef bailout as I was setting up the segment is that that was also part of this, right? Is people were annoyed with the use of fungible taxpayer dollars going specifically to Argentina. But then when Donald Trump mentioned potentially starting to import some modest amount of Argentinian beef, Maga was furious. Maha was furious. I wrote a story about it over at Unherd, just tracking everyone who had come out and was just completely beside themselves with this. What they saw as a betrayal of particularly small American farmers. Now, obviously the American beef industry was annoyed by that period, but there are a lot of small American farms that have put some stock in maga and the Trump movement hoping to get a little bit of help out of it and were just completely caught off guard by that proposal to import any Argentinian beauty beef, period, because they see themselves as being in need of help from the US Government and getting basically nothing. Now, Donald Trump was also grilled by Laura Ingraham in what was obviously a pretty tough interview and actually a contentious interview at certain points, like this one, maybe the most contentious point of the interview on H1B visas. This has set off another firestorm on X. And again, this is just social media where a lot of the elite discourse happens. So does it trickle into polling soon? Maybe, maybe not. We'll have to see. But this is what Trump said about H1B visas.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

C1, there's never going to be a country like what we have right now. And does that mean the Republicans have to talk about it? And does that mean the H1B visa.

[Krystal Ball]

Thing will not be a big priority for your administration?

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Because if you want to raise wages.

[Sagar Enjeti]

For American workers, you can't flood the country with tens of thousands or hundreds.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

Of thousands of foreign workers. Also do have to bring in talent when talented people. No, you don't. No, you don't. We don't have talented people. No, you don't have, you don't have certain talents. And you have to, people have to learn. You can't take people off an unemployment, like an unemployment line and say, I'm going to put you into a factory, we're going to make missiles or I'm going to put, how do we ever do it before? Well, let me, I'll give you an example. In Georgia, they raided because they wanted illegal immigrants. They had people from, from South Korea that made batteries all their lives. You know, making batteries are very complicated. It's not an easy thing and very dangerous. A lot of explosions, a lot of problems. They had like five or six hundred people, early stages to make batteries and to teach people how to do it. Well, they wanted them to get out of the country. You're going to need that, Laura. I mean, I know you and I disagree on this. You can't just say a country's coming in, going to invest $10 billion to build a plant plant and going to take people off an unemployment line who haven't worked in five years and they're going to start making missiles. It doesn't work that well.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So that's happening. As people are also like the interviews airing as people on the right are also furious about the proposal for 50 year mortgages which Donald Trump had to defend to Laura Ingraham in that interview as well. And he did basically defend it in that interview to Laura Ingram as well. At one point he said it's not a big deal, we're going for from 40 year to 50 year mortgages. And Ingram jumped in and said no 30 year mortgages to 50 year mortgages.

[Krystal Ball]

On a touch.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And so here's a post that I just noticed pinging around some group chats yesterday. This is from Savannah Hernandez who is a contributor with Turning Point usa. She posted this long x almost essay. It's that long. She says I'm tired.

[Krystal Ball]

Ackman esque. Yes.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, an Ackmanesque. She pulled an Ackman and she wrote I'm tired of based social media videos and big talk from the admin with zero follow through. First thing she cites we voted for home affordability and we were given 50 year mortgages and debt slavery at one point. She then goes on to say people are being arrested for quote anti Semitic attacks. Meanwhile it's Christian children who are being targeted and killed in the middle of mass and it's mobs of violent leftists who continue to scream kill white people with zero repercussion. That is a recurring theme in her post. She goes on to say American students are drowning in debt and the admin has responded by making them compete with 600,000 Chinese students. Oh, and if you're lucky enough to get a degree, you're still going to have to compete with a Republican promoted H1B visa hire that will work for half your pay. She goes on to say this is why the right wing is divided. She says every time Americans or because Americans voted to feel safe, prioritized and protected and every time we try to voice our concerns we are labeled as anti Maga, anti Israel or anti Trump for bringing forth substantial criticism of the direction of the party. She says she's watched the quote right wing implode over the last two weeks and by the way goes on. And the reason we are is because many are afraid to legitimately criticize the administration. That is absolutely true Crystal. And I think she's directing this at those quote based social media posts from Maga world. So she seems to be especially upset with like her fellow influencers who say, you know, if there's a little bit of breadth of criticism, it becomes a pile on over someone being anti Maga or having their Like MAGA Bonafides Challenge, which has definitely happened to Marjorie Taylor Greene. And Marjorie Taylor Greene, you know, whatever you want to say about her going against the team during the shutdown. Marjorie Taylor Greene is as MAGA as it gets. Like, true MAGA as it gets. This is a person who is like organic, grassroots maga and is represents that sort of. I always put around 30 to 40% of the Republican Party. That's the type of MAGA that actually goes to rallies, buys merch, that sort of thing. Marjorie Taylor Greene represents those people who were inspired by Donald Trump's drain the swamp message. And you and I could disagree or could debate whether or not people were right or wrong to put their hopes in Drain the Swamp Donald Trump. But people feel like they were out of options, and they did. And that's the bottom line. And a lot of the people who were brought into the conservative movement, brought into the broader right on those promises are now seeing second administration Donald Trump and second administration Donald Trump is a legacy building. Donald Trump, who has been laser focused on foreign policy and now is. What did he say last week, Crystal, after the Tuesday elections? Like, they have this new word, affordability. That was a good one.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, my God. Which is a con, which he describes as a con job by the Democrats, which is like, oh, my God. And by the way, speaking of honor touch, guess who he's hosting at the White House today? Jamie Dimon and a bunch of other Wall Street CEOs. So really, finger on the pulse there, brother. I'm sure you can walk them around your new gilded ballroom and, you know, you can all marvel at the splendor of your Home Depot. So disgusting gold interior of the White House. You know, I mean, listen, obviously I think part of what this lady said was insane about like, whatever her, you know, whatever her right wing hysteria is and her critique that basically like, oh, they're not being fascist and like the theatrical part.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I too, am frustrated that you're not in prison yet.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, exactly. I mean, it's understandable. Right? We're all disappointed by that. Right. I, you know, you should have been.

[Sagar Enjeti]

In secret months ago.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, Ghislaine looks like she's having fun in prison, so.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You could get a service puppy maybe.

[Krystal Ball]

In any case, I don't think I'd be getting that kind of treatment. Unfortunately, I don't have the goods on Donald Trump the way she does. In any case, putting that aside, her point that she makes about. I'm tired of the base social media videos. The sense is basically, I didn't take that as actually a shot at other influencers. I took that as a shot at the administration which loves to create this fascist content. Their ASMR deportation videos and their, you know, set to music rating of the sandwich guy's apartment and all this kind of bullshit. Right? Or staging this, oh, we're going to march all the horses through the park where children were playing and record it. Even though, like, we're literally doing nothing other than posturing for the cameras. We showed many times, obviously what is happening in Chicago has been extremely real and extremely violent and horrifying for the communities there. But also it was meant for the theater. Every single action they took, when you see people recording them, they've got tons of cameramen, people recording on iPhones and actual, like, you know, real legit cameras so they can package it up and produce it for mass content. You see the DHS Nazi posting on a daily basis. And I think that they believed, and I think up to this point, in a large part, it has been that that would be enough because that's. That's like they're triggering and owning the libs. Right? Right. And they're like, that's what you people want, right? That's all you really need from us. And so what Savannah is saying is like. And again, I think part of what she says, completely insane and outrageous, but she's saying, no, actually, that's not enough. I see what you're doing and I see that you're. You're trying to play us. Like, you're trying to play us. You're trying to substitute in this, you know, this show for the actual things that we thought we were getting and we thought we were voting for. Now, I don't think she's reflective of. Of the. Her specific disappointments I don't think are reflective of the overall population. I think most of the population is pretty horrified by the level of authoritarianism, does not agree with the way that the deportations have been accelerated or the show of force. And we can see that if we look at C3 in these last elections, every single demographic group in the country shifted away from Donald Trump and. Or I should say from the Republican Party. But I'm like, you know, those two things are one and the same. And in particular, the largest shifts came from some of the groups that were really heralded as a new part of the Republican coalition. You're looking at young people, young men in particular. You're looking at Hispanic voters, you're looking at Asian voters. Those groups fled. The Republicans in these elections. So, you know, when you have that sort of an undeniable national record, and even the people who are coping and saying, oh, these were blue states, and it's not a big deal, they know the truth. And this sense of, we have a new coalition, and we're gonna be ascendant forever, you know, demographics is destiny. The way that Democrats thought back in 2008, that has just run smack into an actual reality. So not surprising that you have more and more voices on the right who see the writing on the wall, recognize that Trump is wildly unpopular and will not be alive, let alone in power forever, and are starting to feel more emboldened to make some noises. Emily, I do want to just say about that H1 visa, which I find incredible. So, first of all, I think the H1B visa program sucks. I support bringing. I'm very pro immigration, but it does create a situation of basically indentured servitude. I think it needs to be wildly refor. Think that the immigration status should be attached to the employer. So I have my issues with H1B. Okay. Putting that aside, the thing he said about Georgia was so fascinating because he's like, he's 100% correct about, look, they're building out this battery plant. Hyundai has their own people who know how to do this. We literally don't have workers who have this specific skill for how to build these batteries by this particular company. Like, we just don't have that. And so, yes, we need some people here to train up our workers so that maybe in the future they can hold those jobs. And he said something to the effect of, like. And they wanted them out. Well, the they is Stephen Miller. Like, this is his administration that conducted this raid. And he's acting like, I can't believe this was done. It's like, dude, these are your people that, you know, that went in and did this and created this whole diplomatic crisis and did again, the base social media video show of force, put them in shack. Shackles. These South Korean workers who were legitimately here, put them in shackles and arrested all of them and deported them back to their country. So it also showed just a level of disconnect between what he was willing to say in this interview and what the actual policy and direction of his administration has been.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that is a really good point. So I'm looking right now at a new Economist YouGov poll on approval for Donald Trump. If you look at people who voted For Trump in 2024, only 16% disapprove of the way he's handling his job as president now. But we should also look at this. I mean, it's at 18% among conservatives. So by ideology, 18%, that's almost one in five. And then by party ID, independents, 63%, 63% of independents disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president. In any presidential election, independent voters are absolutely crucial, as they were in 2024. So when you have 63% disapproval with independence, it's just going to depend on how much Donald Trump values. I mean, he's doing the legacy building. He wants that Nobel Peace Prize for a reason, because he wants history to see him as an enormously consequential figure and one who sort of, who completely, what's the best way to put it, Completely outperformed the expectations of the elite. I think that's what he wants people to see him as. And that's where he's willing to cut deals with different countries and do all of these like, big foreign policy kind of moonshot type negotiations. But at home, that question is going to hinge on independence. And one of the gripes that you've heard from people in Magaworld recently is that he's been too focused on foreign policy and not focused enough on affordability, on domestic policy, questions that matter like homeownership, student loan debt, price of college, just cost of living stuff, which crystal, his political instincts, whatever you think of Donald Trump, he has better political instincts than a lot of people in the party leadership because he was out there talking about things like the price of eggs and the price of gas and gas prices all are roughly down. So he's got that going for him. But what, the price of beef is still over like six bucks a pound? When I checked last week. Yeah, and he talked about that. So he knows that it's a problem. The question is whether he has the sort of will to tackle some of these problems in a way that really does make a difference. Because I think what we're starting to see as he approaches the one year mark of his second term, which most people assume will be his final term, we still don't quite know whether that will be the case, but which most people assume is his final term, people are not interested in the bullshit anymore. It's just not going to work. Because when you're looking at the post Trump era, a lot of the Trump era politics fade away. Not all of them, but a lot of them. Which is to say the specific debate about Trump himself, when that fades away, you're left with way more nuts and bolt.

[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[News Clip / Guest Speaker]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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