Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode Date: November 20, 2025
Major Topics: Dems Shatter Polling Record, Trump Prosecutor Bungles Comey Case, NYC Mayor-Elect Zoran Preps for Trump Meeting
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti, Ryan Grim
Guest: Ross Barkan (NY Magazine columnist)

Episode Overview

This episode of Breaking Points dives into the significant shift in national polling favoring Democrats, Trump’s plummeting approval ratings, and the administration’s mishandled case against James Comey. The show also explores sweeping changes in New York politics with incoming mayor Zoran Kwame Mamdani, his controversial strategic moves, and a wave of progressive primary challenges across the city. The tone throughout is blunt, analytical, and laced with skepticism about both major parties and the state of U.S. politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historic Polling Shift Toward Democrats

[02:17 – 05:47]

• Marist Poll Outlier:

  • Democrats lead by 14 points on the 2026 generic ballot—“highest…deficit they’ve registered for the Democrats in I don’t know how many years” (Krystal, 02:21).
  • Briefing on other polling and off-year elections showing similar trends (e.g., Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, Mississippi).

• Trump’s Approval Hits New Low:

  • FOX News poll: Trump’s approval at 38%, “lowest it’s been in his second term” (Ryan Grim, 03:37).
  • Disaffection spans independents and even some Republican voters.

• Key Voter Concerns:

  • 57% say priority should be “lowering prices” (04:15), reflecting severe discontent over inflation, cost of living.
  • “This sense that…you’re building yourself a ballroom and you don’t really seem to give a shit about the fact that I can’t afford enough food…” (Krystal, 05:15)

Quote:
"Grocery prices are up 37% since 2017…that is an additional $250 in monthly expenses for a family of four."
— Ryan Grim, [05:47]

Memorable Moment:
Ryan jokes about steak prices: “Have you walked by the steak section in the grocery store lately? … might as well be a pass. Good luck at Christmas.” [06:40]

2. Issues Driving Disaffection with Trump

[08:30 – 12:07]

• Marquette Law School Poll:

  • Dems +5 on generic ballot; Trump approval at 43%, disapproval at 57%.
  • Only “above water” issue for Trump: Israel-Hamas ceasefire (+).
  • Deeply underwater on most issues:
    • Economy: -28
    • Inflation and cost of living: -44
    • Info about Epstein: -48
    • Federal government shutdown: -50

• AI & Economic Anxiety:

  • Krystal argues AI will worsen unemployment/layoffs as part of “the goal of their policy approach.”

• Failed Redistricting Gambits:

  • Trump-driven redistricting in Texas facing court challenges that could boomerang in Dems' favor.

Quote:
"The whole goal of AI is to make that so much worse for you…it means layoffs. What that means is people coming out of college not being able to find work.”
— Krystal Ball, [10:38]

Quote:
"They are kind of playing with fire with that…when you redraw these maps, you make some of the districts…closer."
— Krystal Ball, [13:25]

3. Gerrymandering and Electoral Volatility

[12:07 – 16:12]

• GOP’s Risky Redistricting:

  • Could backfire if voter swings reverse—historical anecdotes of big midterm/partisan shifts.
  • “If it’s a Tea Party style wave that’s coming…these districts…could see 2, 5, 10, 15-point swings.” (Ryan Grim, 13:38)

• Democrats’ Potential for House Control:

  • Even with gerrymandering, a big enough Dem win may be “too big to rig.”
  • “Given the disgust and dissatisfaction with the Trump administration…it’s looking like a pretty, pretty heavy reckoning is headed for the Republican Party.” (Krystal, 15:04)

4. Trump Prosecutor Bungles the Comey Case

[19:41 – 28:15]

• What Happened:

  • Lindsey Halligan, a Trump loyalist with no criminal case experience, botched the indictment presentation to the grand jury (didn’t present the revised version after one charge was rejected).
  • Judge Nakmanoff called out these irregularities, hinting at prosecutorial misconduct.

• Vindictive Prosecution Evidence:

  • Trump openly said he wanted Comey prosecuted.
  • Halligan’s inexperience and the process failures may meet the high bar for “vindictive” prosecution.

Quote:
"This was a vindictive prosecution...supposedly a very high bar to meet...But it’s looking increasingly like even that high bar, they're likely to meet."
— Krystal Ball, [23:56]

• Prosecutorial Incompetence & Fallout:
  • Repeated pattern of Trump’s allies bungling high-profile cases.
  • Even those critical of Comey (the hosts themselves) say this makes him look “more innocent than he actually looked before.”

Quote:
"Somebody called it…the authoritarian of dunces…I actually thought that was very apt."
— Ryan Grim, [24:58]

5. New York Politics: Zoran, Trump Meeting, and DSA Tensions

[31:08 – 45:29]
With guest Ross Barkan

• Zoran’s Incoming Mayor Moves:

  • Meeting requested with Trump; strategic decision akin to Gov. Hochul’s “inside/outside” play.
  • Debate: Is meeting prudent or a risk to his credibility with leftists?
    • “I think it makes sense. He is the incoming mayor...I think one of the ways to deal with Trump is to really hit him head on.” (Saagar, 32:20)

• Primary Challenge Dynamics:

  • Zoran opposes DSA endorsement of Chiyose Osei’s challenge to Hakeem Jeffries, calls for strategic targeting and not “wasting energy” on likely unwinnable races.
  • Argument over whether such challenges are necessary for moving Democratic leadership leftward regardless of their winnability.

Quote:
"You have to use the power that you have to effectively sort of like coerce and bully these people, because they will stab you in the back the moment that they have the chance."
— Krystal Ball, [39:15]

Quote:
"Politicians respond to power. That is true."
— Saagar Enjeti, [41:48]

• DSA Staffing and Coalition-Building:
  • Zoran brings in moderates (Jessica Tisch), progressives, and DSA loyalists to avoid the pitfalls of ideological purity or incompetence.

Quote:
"All eyes across the country and world will be on him. So it’s very important to avoid scandal…The left has had very few chances at executive rule."
— Ross Barkan, [43:26]

6. The “Zoran Effect” and Progressive Momentum in NYC

[45:29 – 51:03]

• Primary Wave:

  • Multiple high-profile primary challenges stemming from Zoran’s win. Especially notable: likely win for Brad Lander against Dan Goldman; others viewed as more difficult but evidence of renewed leftist energy.

• Cameron Caskey’s Run in NY-12:

  • Stakes for progressives running in crowded fields—impact on splitting moderate vote, local roots, and outsider challenges.
  • Caskey anchors his campaign on policies like “Medicare for All” and social housing.

Quote:
"The rest are trickier and more long shot. That's how I would describe them right now."
— Ross Barkan, [47:23]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Economic Discontent:
  “Same now with Trump, right? When Trump is like, oh, well, they recently did this thing with gas prices. They're like, look, gas is $3 a gallon. It's 5 cents lower than it was last year. I'm like, you're expecting me to celebrate here, right? Come on.”
  — Ryan Grim, [05:47]

• On Prosecution Bungling:
  "You can't fuck things up with basic rudimentary errors which literally make it beclownish..."
  — Ryan Grim, [26:08]

• On Leftist Governance:
  "When it's the left, if they fail, and especially with Zoran being so high-profile, then it's, oh, see, you can't trust these people with power. And this is an indictment of the entire political project."
  — Krystal Ball, [44:04]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Democrats' Historic Polling Lead: [02:17 – 05:47]
• Trump's Approval & Voter Discontent: [03:33 – 08:30]
• Gerrymandering and Party Volatility: [12:07 – 16:12]
• The Comey Prosecution Debacle: [19:41 – 28:15]
• NYC Mayor Zoran's Trump Meeting/Dem Tactics: [31:08 – 45:29]
• NYC Primary Challenges—Progressive Wave: [45:29 – 51:03]

Conclusion & Takeaways

This episode paints a picture of a political landscape in flux: Democrats benefit from a collapse of confidence in Trump’s leadership, catalyzed by economic stress and perceived elite detachment. The Trump administration’s attempts at political retribution are hampered by incompetence. Meanwhile, New York’s left explodes with new energy, but internal debates over strategy—pragmatism versus confrontation—remain unresolved. All eyes will be on how outsider progressives manage the burdens of power and whether they can sustain momentum beyond symbolic wins.

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