Sagar Enjeti (8:57)
Yeah, exactly. The chips angle to this, the OpenAI angle, and also just the monopolistic one. I think this is the one I want to spend more time on because it's not just search, it's Google Chrome, it's Gmail, it's YouTube. Google had already built, you know, the perfect search engine, the perfect YouTube recommendation. I mean, the truth is, is like we owe right to YouTube recommendation algorithm. A lot of other people do. You go on YouTube and it's the best at being able to find something else that you want to watch. Now YouTube TV is one of the major players in the cable replacement Space. They've got all this stuff going on with culture. They own all these massive like troves of data. You have the Android operating system, which is global. So they know more about human behavior than anyone else already before LLMs. And then you roll that all up into Sundar Pichai, who apparently made this the single priority inside of Google. Very recently I was reading some background from my friend Alex Kanchowitz, he's a tech reporter, on how they revamped the Gemini product. And they said this will be the preeminent one in the space. So it shows the monopolistic benefits to a Google and it also shows you some of the dangers here with OpenAI specifically and what that means for our overall economy. And that's probably what we want to spend the most time on here. Let's go to A three. I flagged this specifically because it goes back to our interview that, that we did last week specifically about when will we know that we're gonna start having issues with AI in terms of it starting to leapfrog. Google is actually having Gemini build the user interface in its latest Gemini update. So the AI is already doing some of the tasks around the AI itself. This is what I say is super interesting, I think about how they're not only having the monopoly, having the monopoly to benefit its current product, but now having the AI not just train the AI, but build some of the user interface of AI. So it demonstrates what they have long promised as the productivity benefits again for themselves, not necessarily for all of us. Now with OpenAI, what Wall street is beginning to notice, and you're gonna start probably seeing this in stock price soon, is how much this kind of screws over a lot of their growth plans. So let's put the next one up here on the screen. So this was from CNBC and what they say is that Google's new AI model puts OpenAI, the great conundrum of this market, on shakier ground. I do want to say this was written by Jim Cramer, so, you know, take it with a grain of salt. That said, you know, every once in a while, you know, broken clock is right twice a day. And what he does say is that if you look at this in some of the promises of the market, specifically around these vendor finance deals and OpenAI, while openly acknowledging that they're going to have some $78 billion or whatever in losses by 2028, everything is built on exponential growth and their ability to maintain the leading and bleeding edge for exponential growth. The best in consumer facing AI. What this does Makes it is so that it calls into question their competitive edge that they've long had by being one of the first movers with one of the best user friendly chatbots. And it makes it so that that could be challenged which would decrease its growth, which would of course not have them be able to fulfill all of the trillion dollar deals, which would mean that the market valuations of all these companies, save for Google, would start to go down and Nvidia in particular. Go to the next one please. This is from the Information, a tech focused outlet. And they got their hands on this new memo that forecast quote, rough vibes due to a resurgent Google. Now I don't love using the word rough vibes in internal company memos, but what we say is that this November memo and leaked a couple of days ago says that the rough vibes and potential revenue growth toward 5% which would be a collapse inside and that was actually written before Gemini 3 actually launched on November 18th. Altman praised Google's excellent work where he declared a shift to a wartime fund footing inside of the company. Now remember, they're valued at 500 billion. Their annual revenue needs to exceed some 20 billion this year. Their cash burn surpasses already 8 billion in 2025. Cumulative losses of 115 billion potentially up to 2029 forward sales needs some 25 times. Now currently, meanwhile, Google has $100 billion in cash. They have 4 billion users, they have an incredible competitive edge. And so you could see very quickly how this company is. Even if it maintains some good growth and it continues to have large user base, 20 billion and all that, it's going to be very, very hard to reach some 25 times expected growth and keep that exponential edge. And this is really what all these AI guys, people like Meta and Google have been kind of telling everyone behind the scenes, they're like, yeah, look OpenAI is great but we actually make money. We make a shitload of money and we have this monopolization, let's say in social media and or in Google search and we can use that to prop up our trillions of dollars that are being spent here. OpenAI is kind of the cornerstone of a lot of the stock growth for some of the other, you know, some of the other areas like data center, Nvidia and others. And I think that's where a lot of the concern comes from, from a potential collapse at the very least from OpenAI that wouldn't bring down the entire economy but would pump the brakes. And pumping the brakes, as we've said, is Potential enough to already see a major decline in a lot of stock indices and potentially also even a modest decrease in the amount of data center growth would mean that GDP itself would begin to put us into recession territory.