← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
11/3/25: Trump Says Maduro Is Hamas, Trump Billionaire Party As SNAP Expires, Welfare Queen AI Slop Videos
01:05:38
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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- [01:16]
Krystal Ball
More terms apply. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I.
- [01:22]
Saagar Enjeti
Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
- [01:28]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [01:32]
Saagar Enjeti
If we got clear facts, maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News Reporting for America. Hey guys, Sager and Krystal here.
- [01:49]
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:56]
Saagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [02:02]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:13]
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
- [02:25]
Krystal Ball
Indeed we do. Sager and Ryan with some new bombshell reporting about Venezuela. You definitely want to stay tuned for that one. A lot of moving pieces there and fantastic reporting on your part and Ryan's part. We also have updates with regard to the shutdown down. Trump partying away at a Great Gatsby themed party while food stamp benefits run dry. A judge is intervening and saying that they do have to tap emergency funds to pay out those benefits. So that remains in limbo as we speak. This morning we got a bunch of stuff going on with Cash Patel over at the FBI under fire once again, this time for flying around in a taxpayer funded private jet in order to see his girlfriend. He is speaking out, responding in a relatively both humiliating and entertaining way.
- [03:06]
Saagar Enjeti
So yeah, humiliation first. Entertaining for the rest of us indeed.
- [03:11]
Krystal Ball
We're also taking a look at Fox News and a bunch of conservative influencers fell for these rage bait Welfare Queen AI videos. We'll break that down for you. We are quite cooked when it comes to AI. These videos are getting very believable. Apparently also a wild story out of Israel. I'm not even sure how to characterize this one, but you guys remember the whole right to rape riots that unfolded in Israel? Well now the society's in uproar, furious at the person who leaked the video of the Palestinian being raped by the idf. There's a lot going on here, so we'll bring you all of the details. There also have a bunch of updates in the whole Fuentes Tucker Carlson Heritage foundation fallout. Conservative world is really experiencing quite a schism over the issue of antisemitism and over the issue of Israel. I have thoughts. I want to hear Sagar's thoughts as well, so that'll be an interesting one. We're also going to do our AMA live today. If you want to be part of those, make sure you sign up@breaking points.com Become a Premium Subscriber. And also we have some amazing holiday merch, guys. By popular demand, the holiday sweater and socks are back.
- [04:21]
Saagar Enjeti
That's right. Let's put them up on the screen.
- [04:23]
Krystal Ball
Yep, there they are. If you're a premium member, you get 20% off. Check your for for those of you who are premium subscribers, check your email. It should have the discount code.
- [04:31]
Saagar Enjeti
That's right, the code will be in there. It is made in the USA and UN okay, so not like everybody else out there hawking you stuff from China. And I can personally attest to the quality of the socks who, as I said, the shoe salesman tells me are incredibly size.
- [04:45]
Krystal Ball
He wouldn't lie, genuinely loves these.
- [04:47]
Saagar Enjeti
For he would not lie. He would not lie to me about how awesome these socks are. Definitely not trying to sell me a pair of shoes. But nonetheless, I appreciate his compliment. It is great, by the way, to be back on standard time. The sun did rise again. And so it's beautiful. Beautiful this morning. It was a gorgeous morning here in Washington. All right, let's go ahead and start with Venezuela. President Trump sat yesterday with 60 minutes after the Buffalo Bills game, and here's what he said about Nicolas Maduro saying his days are numbered. Let's take a listen.
- [05:17]
Krystal Ball
That is the world's largest aircraft carrier on the way to the Caribbean. Are we going to war against Venezuela? I doubt it.
- [05:25]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't think so. But they've been treating us very badly. Not only on drugs. They've dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country that we didn't want. People from prisons. They emptied their prisons into our country.
- [05:37]
Krystal Ball
They also, if you take. Take a look, they emptied their mental.
- [05:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Institutions and their insane asylum into the United States of America because Joe Biden was the worst president in the history of our country. But I just want to talk about.
- [05:50]
Krystal Ball
The scale of the military operation around Venezuela because it has been described in 60 minutes as using a blowtorch to cook an egg. Is this about stopping?
- [06:00]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't think so.
- [06:01]
Krystal Ball
Look, is it about. Let me ask you, though. Is it about stopping narcotics or is this about getting rid of President Maduro?
- [06:08]
Saagar Enjeti
No, this is about many things.
- [06:10]
Krystal Ball
This is a country that allowed their.
- [06:12]
Saagar Enjeti
Prisons to be emptied into our country. To me, that would be almost number.
- [06:16]
Krystal Ball
One, because we have other countries.
- [06:18]
Saagar Enjeti
Mexico has been very bad to us in terms of drugs, okay? Very bad. We have a closed border right now. You probably noticed that for five months in a row, they have zero. Think of this. Zero people coming into our country through our southern border on Venezuela in particular.
- [06:35]
Krystal Ball
Are Maduro's days as president numbered?
- [06:38]
Saagar Enjeti
I would say, yeah, I think so. Yeah.
- [06:40]
Krystal Ball
And this issue of potential land strikes.
- [06:42]
Saagar Enjeti
In Venezuela, is that true?
- [06:44]
Krystal Ball
I don't tell you that.
- [06:44]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, I'm not saying it's true or untrue, but I, you know, I wouldn't.
- [06:48]
Krystal Ball
Why would we.
- [06:49]
Saagar Enjeti
I would be inclined to say that I would do that, but because I don't talk to a reporter, I would say, yeah, in terms of his days being numbered, we're not gonna go to war with Venezuela, but Maduro's days are numbered. By the way, that's just from Donald Trump, who is probably the least belligerent member of his White House on Venezuela, if you can believe it. So we have compiled a number of comments and setting the ground for any potential invasion, regime change, strike, CIA, operation assassination, et cetera, the craziest one so far is you will be shocked to learn that Maduro is now Hamas and in fact is pro terrorist. This is from the White House counterterrorism advisor, Seb Gorka in an interview from the White House lawn. Let's take a listen. And it is primarily about the drugs, Rob, but it's not just about the drugs. I can't talk about the classified aspects of this, but in open source. Right now your viewers can go online and they can search for the connections of that regime, the Maduro regime, to other bad actors, other states, other nations, who, for example, have been plotting to target members of this administration, including the president. Iran's tentacles into this hemisphere go straight through Caracas. Iran's tentacles wrap through Caracas, and you can't even make this shit up honestly. And by the way, that's not even the craziest part. We'll get to in a little bit about how they're pro Iran, they're pro Russia, they're pro China, they're pro Hamas, they're terrorists, but they're drug traffickers. Yeah, they're everything under the sun that you need to facilitate a violent regime change in Venezuela now, currently. And I think what I'm just the most galled by is, again, the level of seriousness which I do not think that the mainstream media is taking this. So the strikes, the land strikes, that remains a possibility. We'll get to that in a moment. But the simple fact is, is, you know, you can look, the State Department on the record, gave Ryan and I a statement saying Maduro is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela. It's one of the craziest things I've ever read. You know, literally a total declaration from the United States government. And on the record statement from spokesperson to Marco Rubio declaring this person illegitimate, said, we have a $50 million bounty. Something that many sources and I have been speaking to is that 50 million. You know, the impetus behind that is basically to get every mercenary under the sun to mount some violent operation against Maduro. And so there are all kinds of sketchy Blackwater style guys who are flooding the Caribbean, Guyana and Colombia, buying all sorts of weapons because they want their payday. And so that's the type of thing that we're endorsing. Who knows what will if this regime completely collapses and everybody's just acting like it's just pie in the sky and democracy will prevail on day one. I think the opposite's gonna happen. And all signs currently point in that direction.
- [09:42]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, well, to your point about the mainstream press, What I saw written up in the New York Times this morning about that 60 minutes clip we showed you from Trump is, oh, he says we're not gonna be at war with Venezuela.
- [09:53]
Saagar Enjeti
What?
- [09:53]
Krystal Ball
No, that's not what he said is, he said Maduro's days are numbered.
- [09:57]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly.
- [09:57]
Krystal Ball
Now maybe he doesn't wanna come out and be like, oh yeah, we're going to war tomorrow. But we already know from the New York Times reporting, by the way, backed up by Sager and Ryan, that he has greenlit these CIA operations. We see what's happening with our own eyes with striking these random drug boats with the bounty that's put on him, with the massing of military assets in the region. We know about the internal push. I can't even call it a tug of war. It's just an all out push towards war and regime change operations in Venezuela. So when I hear the President of the United States say, yeah, his days are numbered. Well, how do you think that, you think it's just gonna, an organic uprising of the people in Venezuela? No, that is not remotely what we're talking about here with regard to the migration piece as well, it's complete insanity. First of all, his whole they opened up the insane asylums. I continue to believe that he actually thinks the asylum process is the same as opening up insane asylums. But you've had actually bipartisan project in the US which has pushed a lot of people out of Venezuela to migrate to other countries, including our own. I mean Marco Rubio and those types, they have been the ones that have welcomed Venezuelans into the country. Now I support migration, but I also support people being able to live in their own country and have it not be wrecked by sanctions, onerous sanctions, which are part of what has created the economic misery in that country as well. So in any case, if you have a failed state there and chaos, guess how many people are going to want to leave that country. You're very likely to have an increased migration crisis which is going to be obviously first and foremost a problem for those individuals who have to flee the area. You're gonna have fallout, spillover effects for countries in the region and also for our own country as well. So the whole thing is completely insane. But my mind was blown by the framing from the mainstream press of like, oh, he says he's not going forward with invader. Everybody calm down, there's not gonna be a war, it's gonna be fine.
- [11:48]
Saagar Enjeti
What they mean by that is that they're not gonna be a full scale invasion. And yeah, maybe there Won't be a full scale invasion. They don't think that they need to. They think they can militarily pressure him to step down or cause some sort of CIA internal coup ins. By the way, that's way worse. Right, because if you're gonna do it, then you need to do it, you need to do it properly and you need to occupy the country for some 20 odd years. I don't support that, just to be very clear. But that's pretty much the only way that it would ever work. In the meantime, we've got our CIA backed people like Maria Machado, who has recently been given the Nobel Peace Prize and is a 100% US backed like there's no other way to describe it. I'll get to my reporting in a bit about some of the details. I have the exact numbers on the number of dollars that flew into her coffers and the entire Venezuelan opposition over the last five years. But listen, this is a very sophisticated political actor. She's now giving interviews saying that Maduro is tied to Hamas, to the Palestinian resistance, he's a terrorist, she supports the land strikes. She has been behind the scenes. I can tell you all in a little bit about the level of support that she's given to the trende Aragua accusations of the drug trafficking accusations. She is the number one force in Washington and around the Western world to push violent regime change so that she herself can assume the presidency and has hundreds of millions of dollars at her disposal. Here's the interview she gave. I mean, it's again a parody, literally a parody. Let's take a listen. For years we were, you know, asking the world to understand the degree of the threat and this devastation the Maduro regime was building in Venezuela. I mean, Venezuela has been turned into the safe haven for the activities of all criminal international networks from the drug cartels to the Colombian guerrilla to those groups that smuggle gold and destroy communities of our indigenous people and the ecology to red works that smuggle arms and even human trafficking and child prostitution. This is horrible what we're leaving. Russian agents, Iranian agents freely operating in Venezuela, Hezbollah and Hamas being located in our country. And we have asked for years international community to cut these sources that come.
- [14:19]
Krystal Ball
From drug trafficking and other criminal activities. Finally this is happening.
- [14:24]
Saagar Enjeti
So you think those killings are justified then?
- [14:27]
Krystal Ball
That's what I really want to understand.
- [14:30]
Saagar Enjeti
Or are they, as the UN would say, extrajudicial killings? This is about saving lives.
- [14:36]
Krystal Ball
And Maduro is absolutely conscious and he has been warned what not to do.
- [14:43]
Saagar Enjeti
These deaths are the Responsibility of Nicolas Maduro. What about the rights to do process of the people who were on those boats? I certainly defend the rights of everyone, not only Venezuelans. That's my.
- [14:57]
Krystal Ball
Why my voice has been, you know.
- [14:59]
Saagar Enjeti
Loud all along this process. But you need to understand all the international community to understand that this is a very cruel war. It was Maduro who turned this into an international conflict.
- [15:13]
Krystal Ball
Look, when you.
- [15:15]
Saagar Enjeti
That's really what I'm wondering.
- [15:17]
Krystal Ball
Are those people expendable on the boats?
- [15:19]
Saagar Enjeti
It was Maduro who insisted on maintaining operations that have consequences.
- [15:25]
Krystal Ball
Maiduro is not a conventional dictator.
- [15:29]
Saagar Enjeti
We're facing anarcho terrorist structure. So that's the lady pro Hamas, Maduro's Hamas, Maduro's Iran, Maduro's Russia, Maduro's anybody bad. You joked the ghost of Bin Laden is in Venezuela too. And let's also just take this on a very basic level level. Do you think that let's say I don't know if Maduro is popular or not. I have no idea. There's a lot of propaganda and all that out there. I will say this. If you're another country and if you are Venezuela and the United States sanctions you to death for the last five to 10 years, you have a huge migration crisis which I'll also get to in a little bit in terms of the US role in some of that. And now the opposition leader who you may have had some sort of democratic faith in is on the supporting strikes against your countrymen in addition to being CIA and US backed in some sort of a literal coup that has been acknowledged by the president. Would you, even if you hate Maduro, would you accept that person as your new leader solely as a democratic polity with people, you know, tens of millions of people who live in that country, very oil rich, an explicitly stated goal of wanting to take advantage of your mineral resources, would you allow that person to assume the mantle of your. Why? What self respecting person could do that? Imagine the United States. You don't like Trump. Okay, well if the Chinese or some other country came in, deposed that person explicitly to try and steal our oil, do you not think that even a lot of Democrats and other people who don't like Trump would be like, yeah, I don't know about this, I don't know about all this. If some KGB style assassination explicitly stated out there, I think most Americans would be like, listen, I'm not so thrilled with my president and all that, but I'm not dealing with whatever this is. That's. What do you think is more likely to Take up arms against somebody like that. Who do you think is gonna meet? Perhaps let's say violent resistance or anti democratic nature. She's openly supporting the strikes here which is dramatically unpopular in Venezuela.
- [17:37]
Krystal Ball
She's openly supporting, let's be clear about what this. She is openly supporting the murder of random Venezuelans with no evidence or due process. This, that's what she's. And she's calling for direct US action in Venezuela. Like that's insane. And this is the lady that you know, Ms. Nobel Peace Prize. This is the lady that you think is going to be able to unify the country and bring everybody together in this theoretical post Maduro world. Insane. And I'm so insulted by the how like stupid they think we are with their propaganda. Like you know, Maduro's Hamas, Maduro's Hezbollah, Maduro's Iran, it's Russia, it's the ghost of Bin Laden, it's the ghost of Adol. I mean just like you know, at least in the past there was some effort for a full sail like propaganda effort to convince the American people of the goodness of our various wars here they just slap together, okay? Drug trafficking, terrorism, Hezbollah, Hamas. Okay, we gotta do it guys. Let's do like, don't ask too many questions. We're just gonna be off to the races here. And look at this lady, isn't she amazing? Our new Ahmed Chalabi ready to go. It's so insane to me the just how easy they think we are to manipulate and unfortunately for a lot of people apparently it's true. They just buy it.
- [18:53]
Saagar Enjeti
We don't live in a democracy anymore. We live in a. Look, I mean maybe we never did, but the point is that we have always been ruled and governed by elites. The elites who are in power are Marco Rubio and in a cabal of South Floridians who have taken over the White House that Trump is somehow susceptible to and has been convinced of this violent takeover for his benefit. He has been convinced that we can get more oil from Venezuela if we overthrow the regime. As opposed to Maduro who literally is telling us take whatever you want. This is the thing people don't understand about Maduro. He does not actually care that much about Russia and China. I was not a Latin American expert, but I've now spent literally hours on the phone talking to people who have met him recently. I've talked to, spoken with 10 people who have met Nicolas Maduro in the last six months. All of them tell me the exact same thing. Maduro does not care about this he's absolutely willing to sell oil, minerals, gold. He just wants to survive atop his thing. He's even willing to, let's say, step aside in some sort of deal in 20, 20, 2030. Well, he'll go, you know, he'll step aside from the government and you know, you can have a win win type situation, but the regime that he has will remain in power. That is literally what's on the table. We're saying no. We're doing this violent drug trafficking narrative instead, which is totally fake. It's fake.
- [20:05]
Krystal Ball
Busy work weeks can leave you feeling drained. Prolon's five day fasting mimicking diet works at the cellular level to rejuvenate you from the inside out out providing real results that include fat focused, sustainable weight loss with no injection needed. NextGen builds on the original Prolon with 100% organic soups and teas, a richer taste and ready to eat meals. Developed at USC's Longevity Institute and backed by top medical centers, Prolon supports biological age reduction, metabolic health, skin appearance, fat loss and energy. Get 15% off plus a $40 bonus gift when you subscribe at prolonlife.com iheartra that's prolonlife.com iheart I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I.
- [20:53]
Saagar Enjeti
Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
- [20:59]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [21:03]
Saagar Enjeti
We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reports starting let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America. Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24. 7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medications for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care. Let's go and put Ryan and I story please up on the screen just so I can kind of go through all of it. This is from Ryan. He got the big scoop here is that the US expanded drug cartel target list to include Colombian sites amid the Rubio push for Venezuelan regime change. That was from Ryan. Is that what they did? Is that they have expanded the strike list to include on the border with Venezuela and Colombia in addition to Mexico. And that Lindsey Graham is going all over Capitol Hill urging people to support some sort of strikes not only on Venezuela for regime change, but all across Latin America. But here's a portion that I really want everyone to sit with. I got my hands on a bunch of these internal USAID documents, okay, from the last five years. And I just want to read to you all the colossal amounts of money that have flown into the. Flowed into the Venezuelan opposition. $213 million over the last five years. This is per internal USAID assessment that I was able to get my hands on just into the Venezuelan opposition for Machado. 18 million last year alone, including global travel of this recent Nobel Peace Prize tour. This was just 2024. So this is under the Biden administration in the more recent times, by the way, after Trump disbanded USAID, they redirected $400 million just in September of to combat ideologically opposed governments in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. 400 million. So add all that up, we're talking about 6, 700 million dollars. In addition. By the way, by the way, what did Ryan and I find in the middle of the appropriations bill? Let me read it to you. Specifically, of the funds appropriated by this act, under the heading of economic support fund, 50 million shall be made available for democracy programs in Venezuela. That is an increase of 10 million from just the last year. So add all. Almost a billion dollars that I can verify of just over the last five years flowing into Venezuela. Maria Machado, this whole Nobel Peace prize thing is 100% orchestrated by the United States. And this is part of the bipartisan narrative. Yes. Rubio and Trump are the ones who are taking it a step further. Biden pumped hundreds of mills into the Venezuelan opposition. This whole Juan Guaido regime op that's been going on since 2000, what is it, 2019, has been flowing now for years to the point where the entire bipartisan machine just seems to agree that we need to pump all this money into Venezuela. And that regime change itself is an effort which will be successful. It will not be. We learn nothing.
- [24:19]
Krystal Ball
We literally never learned.
- [24:20]
Saagar Enjeti
And again, just to stick with this is Maduro himself. And look, I'm not pro Maduro. I think he's a bad guy, okay? I'm not saying I'm sure he stole an election. At the end of the day, I don't really care if he's willing to sell us oil. Whatever, okay? There's a lot of bad people all around the world who sell us oil. Saudi Arabia, Shocker. Well, it's really funny. Maduro has been telling anybody who Will listen. He'll go. By the way, he's like, I didn't invade you. You destroyed my country with sanctions. And what I uncovered was a USAID contract for September 2023 to July of 2024. I literally got to read the contract to a large Colombian newspaper called El Pais. And this newspaper was being funded billions of Colombian pesos to run ads about a, quote, new narrative about the Venezuelan migrant population. To document and make visible success of stories of migrants accessing the formal market in Colombia using formats and media regularly consulted by business groups. The justification of that contract was to say that Venezuelans should stay in Colombia. Now, what do the critics of that campaign say is that we funded. This is just one of many contracts all across Latin America which basically encouraged Venezuelans to leave Venezuela. And then once they got to Colombia, they were like, well, maybe we'll try and do this ad psyop to make them stay there. No, what it did is it sucked even more people out of Venezuela to Colombia, Guyana, all of these other neighbors throughout Latin America. And then they came here for dps using the border under Biden. I mean, over a million people came here from Venezuela just under Joe Biden. Just to point out, like, he. And by the way, not just him, leftists and other people who are currently in power in Colombia have been screaming this from the rooftops. Is. They're like, look, we agree the border situation and all that is out of control, but you cannot absolve yourselves of literally funding a. A group funding huge ad campaigns across our countries, basically encouraging Venezuelans to leave. Well, okay.
- [26:18]
Krystal Ball
Sanctioning the shit.
- [26:19]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly.
- [26:20]
Krystal Ball
And then make ads so they cannot benefit from the vast mineral and oil wealth that they actually have, engaging all these multimillion dollars of, you know, USAID democracy, regime change funds, the whole Juan Guaido thing. And then the ad campaigns actively, effectively encouraging.
- [26:37]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [26:37]
Krystal Ball
Venezuelan migration.
- [26:38]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [26:39]
Krystal Ball
So, you know, I mean, and this is where, again, the bipartisan aspect of it, you know, Rubio, everything I just.
- [26:45]
Saagar Enjeti
Said happened under Biden.
- [26:46]
Krystal Ball
That was Biden. But all Rubio and all the South Florida people, like, they support all of that. Right? And so. And that's the other thing about all of this. We talked about the mainstream press dropping the ball here, but, like, the supposed opposition party, largely quiet. You got, you know, Mark Pocan, you got Ro Khanna, you got a few lonely voices out there, but you asked yourself, where is the. Where is the fury? Like, where is them taking them to task over there? Where is them explaining to the American public what is going on here and how they're being lied to and how they're being snowed. And the reason they're so quiet is because a lot of them kind of sort of agree with it. They're okay with it, or they think, oh, this is not the political place to fight or whatever, which to me is insane. But there is a lot of support, a lot of bipartisan support for this insane leftover Cold war mentality and, and this fantasy belief that somehow this time the regime operation is gonna be different.
- [27:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Why can't we just say that opposing regime change in Venezuela is not an endorsement of Nicolas Maduro? Why is that so difficult? It's not like, yes, he's a bad guy. There are bad people all over the world. We make deals with them on an everyday basis. He's willing to sell us a shit pot of oil and gold.
- [27:56]
Krystal Ball
We're living with the frickin kinda guy.
- [27:58]
Saagar Enjeti
Syria, I was gonna say, if we can live with a guy who literally slaughtered US soldiers in Iraq. Iraq as in Syria? Because he's pro Israel, we can live with anything. Same like he stole an election. They don't have elections in Saudi Arabia or in Qatar. Guess what? We buy shit tons of LNG and oil. It's not my problem. What, in Turkey? Yes, Turkey. Erdogan. I'm sure he's stolen multiple elections or whatever at this point. Yeah, well, Incirlik Air Force Base is really important. We have nuclear weapons there. Deal with it. Okay? We've had military coups and military dictatorship there since the 1970s. Whatever. Okay? This is the point. The inconsistency around all of this is so insane. And now it's about drugs? Like no, this is 150% bipartisan regime change. USAID, CIA. It will end in the same way that it always does. You really think the Venezuelans are going to accept this CIA funded woman who encourages and wants the murder of her own countrymen? How can you possibly think that that is going to go over well? You know, let me tell you a little story about Lula. Lula not doing so well down in Brazil, actually, before Trump came in. Then what happened? Trump slapped the shit out of him with sanctions. And what he. Lula's more popular than ever. Okay, he's more popular than ever.
- [29:17]
Krystal Ball
Now look at Canada.
- [29:18]
Saagar Enjeti
Little story I heard about Colombia is that Petro is desperate for Trump to sanction him because he wants to get reelected. He's not actually doing so well down in Colombia. Part of the reason he's been mouthing off so much is he wants Trump, Trump to come in and to sanction him. Because the populations around Latin America are sick of this. They can see it and they're watching what's happening. You know, that's final thing in terms of the whole Monroe Doctrine. I strongly believe in the Monroe Doctrine. But part of that is also that increasingly engaging in the same bipartisan regime change throw ops over and over again has dramatically undermined US Security in Latin America. It has mass encouraged violent migration other to the United States would cause a demographic and political crisis here. Put that all together. It's like, how can you possibly say that that's successful?
- [30:08]
Krystal Ball
Can you talk, Sagar, a little bit about you and Ryan's reporting with regard to the target bank, including targets in Colombia and targets in Mexico as well? Because effectively what you and Ryan reported is since they're using this whole pretext of drugs and there isn't a lot of actual drug trafficking in Venezuela at all. When they were, when people were tasked with coming with, okay, we'll find us some targets, they were like, well, there's.
- [30:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Not a whole lot.
- [30:31]
Krystal Ball
There's no targets in Venezuela, but we do have. So we have some in Colombia. So can you talk about that aspect of and what that means?
- [30:37]
Saagar Enjeti
Totally, yeah. This is a hilarious little side story as well, is that Trump has recently found out there is no fentanyl in Venezuela. And so even though he's apparently okay with these strikes. What him? Actually, let's put this next one, please, on the screen. This was about the US Poised to strike military targets in Venezuela and escalation. This was a Miami Herald report. The administration denied it, just to be clear, but clearly Miami Herald, they've got some good sources down there in South Florida. The story, as I understand it, is that there was like a go, no go situation. It did eventually calm down over the weekend, but in the next few days to a week, you can definitely watch. One of the reasons is that a lot of those warships do eventually need to return to port or where they came from. So they're on actually a limited timeline for the amount of time they can stay out there, absent some crazy circumstance if they want to keep them there. But to your point about what you were saying, the reason why Colombia and Mexico have now increasingly been extended in the target is there is no fentanyl or cocaine that's really coming from Venezuela. There's just not a lot that comes from there. It's like 6, 7%. This is from the DEA's own 2025 report. I tweeted it. You can go Read it for yourself if you want to. It's publicly available. It's pretty hard to find the point that you read from the document, though. And the reason why many of the more recent strikes from the US have shifted to the Pacific Ocean is those actually are cocaine routes from Colombia to Mexico. Now, a lot of the cocaine will come from Colombia to Mexico. Mexico is where the fentanyl comes in. They use the precursors from China, and then the absolute vast majority of it crosses the US Mexico border, not by sea. It almost all comes by land. Now, in terms of the strike packages that have been prepared, a lot of them, the fact that, you know, any cocaine which is moving from Colombia to Venezuela is happening on that border, a lot of it has nothing to do really with Maduro. This is like some guerrilla, you know, this is jungle, stuff like that. It's kind of hard to explain explained for a lot of people, but it's effectively like a lawless, no man's land down there. And that is where, to the extent you can find a Venezuelan connection, it's there on the border, and it's a lot more with the Colombians. Now, internally, what I'm told is that Mexico and Colombia, even though they're the most legitimate strike targets for the US you would cause huge political problems. So, as I just explained, Trump does not want to sanction Petro. Why? He doesn't want him to get reelected. He doesn't want the leftist to win. If we strike Colombia, it's game. It's gonna be a socialist takeover down in Colombia. Sheinbaum is massively popular. She's actually playing ball right now. If we strike Mexico, first of all, economic consequences could be a disaster because of NAFTA and the amount of trade that we do down in Mexico. They could cripple our economy if they wanted to. But two is that it would solidify the Sheinbaum regime even more than it already is and make the leftist parties even more popular. Popular down in Mexico. So the administration is aware of this to a certain extent. Brazil massively backfired on them. They did not expect Bolsonaro dip, the Bolsonaristos to dip in popularity and for Lula's popularity to go up as a result of the sanctions. So I don't think it's gonna happen. Personally, I do think if anything does happen, it'll be in Venezuela. But the Venezuelan regime change thing, it's here. I mean, Trump is now saying his days are numbered. He seems to believe, leave all of this. We potentially maybe have one or two more off ramps. But I'm not feeling very good about it. I think we have maybe 14 days. Right now is a very critical time. That's why we're spending a lot of time on this right now.
- [33:57]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Let's take a look at a six. This was an important report from the Washington Post about the legal justification. So the headline here, Trump administration tells Congress war law does not apply to cartel. So effectively they say the President needs lawmakers approval for sustained military action under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which was passed in the wake of the Vietnam War. A 60 day clock started ticking after the administration informed Congress on September 4 that it conducted a strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean two days earlier. It's followed that with other strikes, has killed dozens of people. That 60 day window closes and until now it'd been unclear what the administration would do. And so basically the administration is saying, we don't have to follow that law, we don't have to notify you. We don't classify this as meeting the requirements under this War Powers Resolution. So they continue to claim the ability to do all of these, like random extrajudicial assassinations with no due process, indefinitely without having to go to Congress whatsoever. However, Congress is probably not all that upset about it because of the reasons that we just were mentioning that they don't like to have to make difficult decisions and have their fingerprints on this. There is a more or less bipartisan acceptance of the general thrust of hey, let's get rid of Maduro. So they're probably not gonna protest too much. There are a couple other interesting notes in this piece. I mean, number one, what the administration is actually claiming here, which is something I've been saying for a while, file, is that they can assassinate any person that they claim to be tied to the drug trade. Okay, that's what they're claiming. And not just at sea. Like, what they're asserting is that they can murder anyone they want domestically here in the US with no due process, as long as they say, oh, but they were related to drug trafficking, they were related to a drug cartel. They had were giving material support to drug cartels. That's their view of their legal abilities, which is insane. Also, just a little nugget in here. There was supposed to be a briefing where the military lawyers come in and sort of like brief Congress on the legal rationale. That didn't happen. And originally Congress felt like, oh, they're just stonewalling us. But the reality was that the legal experts were not comfortable with the legality of it and didn't want to have to go and do this briefing. So to give you a sense of how much tumult there is in terms of the, the career officials and lawyers who've been involved in this process. And of course we saw one high up military commander who was pushed down over his objection to some of these things as well. So I mean what they're claiming here is absolutely insane. Even putting the Venezuela piece aside and focusing here domestically.
- [36:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely, you're absolutely right. Ryan had some stuff on that as well by the way in the report. So look, that's where things are as of right now. We really don't know yet where things could go. It's still possible we could reopen been some talks with Maduro. I think it's gonna be very difficult. You can see it as a massive pressure campaign, but every single day that this goes on, it just gets more dangerous. Who knows what kind of crazy black ops mercenary thing is gonna be happening inside Venezuela right now. I have no clue. Yeah, exactly. I mean on the Venezuelan side too, for ostensibly anybody who cares about the opposition, as I've explained, you know what Maduro says Maduro is doing backflips when we do the CIA announcement because then anyone opposes him is this is who CIA. This is what the Iranians did after the Mossad targeted assassinations. Any person in Iran who spoke out against the regime, now they're Mossad and they literally just kill him. That's what Maduro is doing is throwing them all in jail. He's gonna kill him. This is the best gift you've ever given for the regime. He's also coup proofing himself. Increasingly most of the people around him at this point have been so tested and I mean there's a recent story where he tried to buy off his pilot to try and fly him to the United States States from the CIA. And the pilot was basically playing them off trying to get some cash. But he eventually told Maduro they saved him. So he has a pretty good cocoon around him to protect himself at this point. And I don't think he's going anywhere personally. So we'll see. All right, let's get to the shutdown.
- [38:07]
Krystal Ball
Trump disagrees with you, so we'll see how that goes.
- [38:09]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, I don't think he's going anywhere voluntarily.
- [38:11]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, indeed.
- [38:12]
Saagar Enjeti
Is he going to die? Very possible.
- [38:15]
Krystal Ball
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- [38:59]
Saagar Enjeti
Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
- [39:05]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [39:09]
Saagar Enjeti
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- [40:15]
Krystal Ball
One more time, call 844-844 IHeart and.
- [40:19]
Saagar Enjeti
Get podcasting working for you.
- [40:26]
Krystal Ball
Meanwhile, the government remains shut down. You'll recall Republicans were trying to deny everyone SNAP benefits. As of now, the November 1st EBT refill has not happened. I'll get to more on that in a moment. But while all of that is going on, Trump was partying down at Mar a Lago. We can put these images up on the screen. Throwing a Great Gatsby themed Halloween party. The title was A Little Party Never killed Nobody. You can see here's a lady, scantily clad dancing in a rotating champagne glass. Ban it. Lots of scantily clad sequin clad women and opposite opulence at this party. You can only imagine if any other president threw a party like this at any point, let alone at a time when the economy is cratering and people are being denied Basic food benefits, and the government remains shut down. So very, very Gilded Age, I would say literally, very Gilded Age feeling. You can recall the images of people having these opulent parties and people's noses pressed down on the glass. That is kind of the vibe that it's giving right here. At the same time, Marjorie Taylor Greene continues to be outspoken against her own party and their failures with regard to health care specifically. Here she was on Bill Maher's program. Here's why I'm angry. The Democrats passed Obamacare, but yet the Republicans have never done anything to correct.
- [41:49]
Saagar Enjeti
The problems that exist with it.
- [41:51]
Krystal Ball
And I blame my own party. That's absolutely wrong. And I don't think it's an easy thing to fix. However, it's something that we should have a plan for. And Mike Johnson, for a month now, cannot give me a single policy idea. And I'm angry about that.
- [42:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Is this your understanding of Obamacare?
- [42:10]
Krystal Ball
So she says, Mike Johnson cannot give me a single policy idea. Right now. The shutdown appears to continue to be at a full impasse. There are no ongoing negotiations that we are aware of. I think Democrats feel very secure in their political position, and Trump is feeling no real pressure to cave here. He. He thinks that he can continue to sort of like exact pain on Democrats via the American public. And as we get into holiday season and Thanksgiving travel and all of that, the level of pain is only going to increase.
- [42:44]
Saagar Enjeti
The theory I have heard is both parties want to keep it shut down until Thanksgiving so that people have horrible travel experiences, and then they blame either side. That's basically the gamble that's now currently happening. It's been basically a month now since the government has been shut down. A lot of people, I mean, put the furloughed employees, all of that aside, the point is, is that at a certain point for the tsa, you know, they're not getting paid. A lot of them are showing up voluntarily. And so how many of them are just gonna start calling out sick and they don't have to come to work, and especially for Thanksgiving, they might have.
- [43:14]
Krystal Ball
To get another job. So they can.
- [43:15]
Saagar Enjeti
They might have to get another job. Exactly. I mean, look, I don't particularly blame anybody paid for a month, you know, not why would you necessarily have to work? But the point is, if you were one of those people, you would also maybe strategically wanna call out sick, especially if you're air traffic controllers and others whenever it comes to the shutdown, because you have air traffic control, tsa, a lot of other employees. But if you're Being required to work. And there's a lot of contingency funds. For example, you know, the paying the troops thing. You had that donor, the billionaire mega donor who paid the. Which, by the way, still insane.
- [43:45]
Krystal Ball
Completely insane.
- [43:46]
Saagar Enjeti
That's like some literally Gilded age thing from J.P. morgan back in the early 1900s. Not joking. You can look it up, that incident if you're interested. But the point actually just remains around the shutdown itself is, look, I think it's crazy because it's such an impactful story story, especially maybe more of a Washington bias, because I know so many people who have been furloughed, but it still doesn't feel like the number one story yet in the country. And I really wonder if so many people now have given up at all in the government and just don't care. They just kind of move on with their life. Like a number one story in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, everywhere else. None of it is about the shutdown. I literally just checked this morning. A month into the last government shutdown, which lasted only 35 days, the amount of pressure, pressure on the Trump administration was unbelievable, which is part of why Trump caved so quickly initially in that one. And so I really have no idea where this will go. Both feel pretty comfortable in where they are right now.
- [44:38]
Krystal Ball
So let me give an update on the SNAP benefits because we covered this extensively last week, Republicans decided they were going to cut off SNAP funds, which would run out at the end of the month. Now, previously, they had indicated there was an emergency fund to allow those things, those benefits to continue. 42 million Americans are beneficiaries of SNAP funds disproportionately. Families with children, so obviously really critical program for people. So there was a lawsuit and you had two federal judges on Friday say that the Trump administration must tap into contingency funds. I'm reading from a CBS News report. To make payments for SNAP during the government shutdown. Ruling against the government, a pair of suits over the imminent benefits of lapse. And they mentioned as well, roughly 42 million Americans rely on SNAP to help buy food. In a case that was brought by a coalition of states in federal court in Massachusetts, Judge Indira Talwani ruled that the government is required by law to tap into the emergency money to make at least partial payments and gave the administration until Monday to tell the court whether it planned to do so. In a separate decision in Rhode Island, Judge John McConnell Jr. Granted request for a temporary restraining order from a group of municipalities and nonprofit profits that sued to block the imminent funding freeze. The ruling was made from the bench and entry on the case. Docket said the court orders the USDA to distribute contingency funds and report back to the court again by noon today. So two courts that are saying, no, you, you have to tap these emergency funds, you have to continue paying out benefits. So far, those funds have not come through. They're still frozen. Big question mark over what is exactly going to happen, whether there's going to be an appeal, et cetera, whether it's going to be a full or a partial payment, how long it will take to effectuate those payments. All of that is incredibly unclear. And so in the meantime, you know, SNAP benefits, especially with how costly groceries are at this point, they don't usually make it. It's not usually nearly sufficient to actually make it to the end of the month. So people are really waiting for that first of the month to be able to replenish their grocery supplies. And everyday delay is, you know, really painful for a lot of people. I'm sure we're going to be seeing images of the food banks, as we already have, with, you know, lines around the world block, both from food stamp beneficiaries who have now been cut off, also from furloughed workers, have no idea when they're going to be able to be getting their, their next paycheck. And there are some indications that this is starting to hit Trump's approval rating we can put before up on the screen. This again speaks to the political dynamics and why Democrats feel they're on somewhat solid ground here. So his approval rating is 43%, disapproved, 55%. But even more significant in this NBC News poll poll, they tested the generic ballot for the midterm elections. You know, okay, Republic, are you going to vote for a Republican for Congress or a Democrat for Congress? And they found the Democrats leading on the generic ballot by eight points. Now, that is the largest generic ballot advantage that NBC News has found for Democrats in years. It comes at a time also, interestingly, where the Democratic Party approval rating is still complete and total garbage. It's actually lower than the Republican Party Party approval rating. Part of that is because you have so many Democrats who are disgusted with the Democratic Party but are still gonna vote for them over the Republicans. So it's not like Democrats are, like, making the most of the situation and really providing a glowing, optimistic path forward for the country. But you do start to see some real fallout from Republican single control leadership in the House, in the Senate, in the presidency. I think the awareness of the Shutdown. The way the shutdown is starting to hit a lot of families across the country and a variety of other issues that people have with this administration as well is beginning to take its toll. And just for perspective, look, caveats, polls, other polls show different blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. An 8 point popular vote win in the House, that's a landslide. That's like bigger than the margin in 2010, 2008, the years we think of huge wave elections, eight polls points would be among the largest popular vote victories for either party in recent years. So all of the Republican gerrymandering stuff that they would do is kind of moot if you have that large of a victory for the Democrats.
- [48:57]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, that's one of the warnings I've given is a lot of these gerrymandering in Texas are like 52, 48 seats. And I'm like, yeah, well considering how.
- [49:03]
Krystal Ball
Democrats are rolling the dice for me.
- [49:05]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm like, look, Texas, the Texas I know which has dramatically changed demographically with all of these Californians, urbanization and the education gap in addition to some of the price increase who are drawing in some more educated liberals, I wouldn't be so comfortable 5248 if I were you Texans, especially from what I've seen in terms of the voter data. But you do you, I guess, you know, you can, you can try and go for it. I again, I don't know where things will go because at the same time the frustration may be building. How much of it is shutdown based? You know, it's one of those where it seems to me a lot more people who are upset with people Trump have reasons to do so. They have a lot more to do outside of the shutdown. Part of the reasons why the Republicans themselves, they feel pretty comfortable right now. Like I'm not seeing a lot of discomfort in the overall GOP ranks to the extent that there is, it's from Marjorie and others. But that's not really about the shutdown. That's about healthcare. Right. That's not about SNAP or anything. It's really about healthcare premiums. By the way, I can report I did check my Obamacare premium. It'll be up 17% this is year. So it'll be about $12,000, $15,000 deductible. So thank you President Obama, thank you President Trump and all of the interim.
- [50:13]
Krystal Ball
Political leaders, everyone who's been involved being serious.
- [50:17]
Saagar Enjeti
If I didn't have a kid, I'm rolling the dice. All right. I'm going to pay cash and just hope I Don't get hit by a bus. There's only one reason that I'll ever literally sign up for usery. You're 25 grand in the hole before you even get to anything.
- [50:29]
Krystal Ball
I haven't checked my price increase.
- [50:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Open enrollment here. What a great time. What a great season.
- [50:35]
Krystal Ball
Lowest level, the bronze.
- [50:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, me too. Trust me. All right. Yeah. This is literally. I'm doing the same thing. That's why my deductible is so high. That's even more. If I had, if I had a high premium. I don't know, man. I just have no idea how this is possible. Did we do the show together where we put up that guy who was a Solopreneur, father of four. $42,000 with a $10,000 deductible. 50,000 bucks. If you ever get into a serious crisis. What's the point at that point?
- [51:06]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, seriously. Well, and this is where, you know, I mean, Democrats have. There was not really a health care conversation that was going on at all. It was completely absent, effectively from the 2024 election. And so they did with the shutdown. I mean, the reason Marjorie's talking about healthcare is because of the shutdown, you know, because of the conversation that they forced on it. So, I mean, I, you know, I got my issues with their strategy, whatever, but they did accomplish kind of shifting the conversation in that direction. Now, that may have happened organically because of the way people are getting hit with these premium price hikes, but they certainly help to sort of focus the national media on that. Let's go ahead and put the next numbers up on the screen. I think you're right, Sagra, that, you know, I also am not sure that a lot of the deterioration in the Republican position is really related to the shutdown. In a lot of ways that's a bigger problem for them, though. Cuz if it's just about the shutdown, then they open the government back up and everybody kind of forgets about the shutdown. I think the problems do actually go deeper than that. But here you can see they asked this question, has the Trump administration lived up to your expectations or has it fallen. Fallen short on these issues? The place where they're doing the best is still border security and immigration. 51%. So a majority say that Trump has lived up to his promises there. 44% say fallen short on foreign policy. You've got him underwater. 4453 changing business as usual in Washington. This is kind of actually a low key, devastating number for Trump because that's Kind of his whole brand is like doing things different, upending the status quo, et cetera. And you have only 40% percent saying that he lived up to the expectation to change business as usual. A strong majority, 56% saying that he's fallen short. But his numbers on the economy are the worst. Only 34% feel he's lived up to his expectations on the economy. Only 33% on looking out for the middle class, and only 30% on inflation and the cost of living, which was essential an issue in this last election as absolutely any anything. So taking on more and more water with regards to the economy, of course, we've been covering here. The AI in part spurred layoffs which are accelerating very little job creation. Yes. The stock market continues to soar basically on the back of AI and data center build outs. And that's effectively it. So not something that a lot of Americans are benefiting from in a real intangible way in their day to day prices are still very high. Healthcare prices are accelerating and just becoming wildly, wildly unaffordable. And people really feeling the pinch at this point. As you know, Trump is there doing his whole Great Gatsby thing. Not a great image. That's another thing too, in the ballroom. Not great images for him.
- [53:39]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't disagree. I just wonder how much of the stuff even penetrates at this point. Trump is in a different universe.
- [53:46]
Krystal Ball
I think if anything penetrates, it's the economic stuff.
- [53:49]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't disagree. But I mean, the Gatsby thing or the ballroom, I mean, I know the ballroom was like a, a meme actually. It's of course, you know, some dumbass segment about the ballroom gets like 200,000 views and becomes the thing that people ask me about in public.
- [54:01]
Krystal Ball
It's like, what do you think about the ballroom that did kind of go off.
- [54:04]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't know why it's the stupid shit is the stuff that penetrates. But you know, I'm always like, yeah, but how much of this is just like a funny meme? Is this something that actually is going to hit home? Like what? I don't know. You know, I do this for a living and I still have never been able to figure out like what actually gets people to vote.
- [54:20]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, well, here's what I would say is, you know, his brand is a few. Was a few things, right? The appealing part of his brand was like, he's a businessman, he's going to make the economy good and he's going to be, you know, and he is pro working class, right. He's going to be fighting for the working class and he's going to upend business as usual. He's going to be this renegade outsider, overturn the system, etc. And I think Epstein was a devastating blow on the, like, upending the status quo thing. I think certainly, you know, people are disgusted with his handling of the economy from the tariffs and just there's been no addressing of their inflation issues. Feels very chaotic, layoffs accelerating, et cetera. So you have the businessman thing not working out and then the Gatsby stuff and the constant surrounding yourself with these oligarchs and catering to them and the east wing and the parties and all of that visual grammar of luxury and optimism. I think that gets to this, you know, oh, is he gonna fight for the working class? And now at this point, you just look like a fool if you really continue to believe that that's where his heart and soul is.
- [55:29]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't know. I still wonder how much of it was economic. I really just don't know. It was a very strange election. So much of it was economic. But then, remember, we had the culture war midterm election of 2022. Democrats sweep in despite crippling inflation in the mid. Not sweep in, but they did dramatically better based on issue of abortion. I kind of think immigration might actually have been more number one than anything else. Obviously not in a vacuum outside of the economy. I also think Biden's age was the huge superseding thing on top of Kamala's trust. Kamala's inability to speak. Right. No, it's literally like you put all that stuff together. That's why there's no grand kind of thing that comes out of it. And there are disparate coalitions for various reasons that support him.
- [56:12]
Krystal Ball
Have you seen his numbers with young people?
- [56:13]
Saagar Enjeti
With young people, yeah. And that's. That's what I mean. And look, if anything, that's probably the people I care about the most most. Just not about the Republicans. I don't care about that. It's just in terms of, like, who literally the future of the country is. And for them, like, it's pretty obvious that nihilism. I'll save some of this for our last block. But a huge reason why politics are the way they are right now is because of a pervading sense of crippling nihilism. Because of the basic fact that you will not do better than your parents today unless you are extremely lucky or if your parents give you some of the their money. That is a gerontocracy that is a system of aristocracy, of the bourgeoisie, of the early Gilded Age period in the United States and of the House of Lords period in the uk Literally the opposite of what we were all supposed to be. And that's basically who we've become again. So, of course you're going to have violent politics basically rise up, and you shouldn't be so surprised. The people. You can do two things in moments like this. You can blame the voters for being bad, for being naughty, or you can blame the leaders who architected that system. I'm always gonna choose the latter one.
- [57:19]
Krystal Ball
Can we do both?
- [57:20]
Saagar Enjeti
No, we can't.
- [57:22]
Krystal Ball
I think we could.
- [57:22]
Saagar Enjeti
We could blame the voters.
- [57:23]
Krystal Ball
I think we can. I think we can. Sometimes their personal agency. Come on. People have responsibility for their own, like, views.
- [57:30]
Saagar Enjeti
You know, I hold the voters often in a form of, like. It's not hatred, but I'm just like, what? What are you people doing? Like, it's. It's like a scorn. This is a very elitist mentality, and I'll put that on this board. Sometimes it's like, bro, what are you doing? It's almost like the what's the Matter with Kansas? Book. You know, you see people. Somebody recently who frankly, like, doesn't make that much money, was complaining to me about the estate tax, and I was like, do you even know what the estate tax is? It's like $28 million. I'm like, you're never gonna get there. Shut the fuck up. But that's. I'm like, I don't know where that comes from.
- [58:03]
Krystal Ball
I guess I have evolved on this issue. I would have previously said 100%. You can't blame the voters. You gotta look at the elites. But you know what? You gotta. First, the most important thing is to blame the elites. Figure out what went wrong, trying to fix the system. But you know what? At this point, I've lost some pain. I'm done coddling some of these people. Figure out what's going on. You're getting lied to multiple times. You're just accepting it. I mean, going back to the Venezuela drug boats, you're just accepting these stupid low. Maduro's, Hamas. I'm sorry, I'm done coddling these people. At a certain point, I'm feeling more like you. You got to take some personal responsibility for yourself.
- [58:37]
Saagar Enjeti
I feel. Look, I agree. Personal responsibility. I guess I'm more talking about political. So you and I are commentators, and we have the luxury, like, I can just openly be like, boomers. I think you should be Kicked out of your houses for the property tax. I'm going to say it, all right, that nobody will ever get elected. I think property taxes should go higher on you. And yes, if you live in a four bedroom house, sorry, you got to go. And somebody younger should be able to live there. You'll never get elected based on that message. So when I say stuff like this, it's more of like how I think politically it should be. But yeah, no, you're right, personally. I mean, sometimes you look at some of the choices that individual voting blocs make in America and you're just like, what are we doing here? It's like, is this an IQ problem?
- [59:13]
Krystal Ball
Probably, yeah. Education problem, whatever. Well, I just wanted to say. Cause I mentioned the young people numbers with Trump and I think this is the place where you can say most clearly the economy is the problem.
- [59:28]
Saagar Enjeti
I agree.
- [59:28]
Krystal Ball
And he now has an approval rating of 20% among voters under 30, according to YouGov, 20% disapproval is 75%. That is an increase in disapproval of 38 points since February and in a decline in approval rating of 22 points again since February. So used to be, you know, as relatively even between approve and disappointment, approve. Now you only have 20% of young voters who say they approve of Donald Trump. And so, you know, there was a lot of talk and understandably. So we did some of it here as well about the way young voters were shifting. Right. And whatever like that. I think there's a called for a total reassessment of how voters, young voters are thinking about the political landscape at this point.
- [60:16]
Saagar Enjeti
That's fair.
- [60:18]
Krystal Ball
I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I.
- [60:22]
Saagar Enjeti
Don'T trust much of anything.
- [60:24]
Krystal Ball
Anything.
- [60:25]
Saagar Enjeti
It's the rage bait.
- [60:28]
Krystal Ball
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [60:32]
Saagar Enjeti
We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America. Run a business and not thinking about race. Radio. Think again. Because more people are listening to the radio and iHeart today than they were 20 years ago. And only iHeart broadcast radio connects with more Americans than TV, digital, social, any other media, even twice as many teens than TikTok. And that reach means everything. Just think about the universal marketing formula. The number of consumers who hear your message times the response rate equals the results. Now let's get those results growing for your business. Radio's here now more than ever. And iheart's leading the way. Think radio can help your business. Think IHEART streaming, podcasting, and radio where the reach is real. Let us show you@iheartadvertising.com that's iheartadvertising.com or call 844-844-iheart one more time, just call 844-844-Iheart and get radio working for you.
- [61:48]
Krystal Ball
Here we go.
- [61:50]
Saagar Enjeti
Hey, I'm Cal Penn, and on my new podcast, Here We Go Again, we'll take today's trends and headlines and ask, why does history keep repeating itself? You may know me as the second hottest actor from the Harold and Kumar movies, but I'm also an author, a White House staffer, and as of like 15 seconds ago, a podcast host. Along the way, I've made some friends who are experts in science, politics and pop culture. And each week one of them will be joining me to answer my burning questions, like, are we heading towards another financial crash? Like in 08, is non monogamy back in style? And how come there's never a gate ready for your flight when it lands like two minutes early? We've got guests like Pete Buttigieg, Stacey Abrams, Lilly Singh, and Bill Nye. When you start weaponizing outer space, things can potentially go really wrong. Look, the world can seem pretty scary right now because it is. But my goal here is for you to listen and feel a little better about the future. Listen and subscribe to Here We Go Again with Kal Penn on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [62:58]
Krystal Ball
All right, let's get to this very dystopian segment, frankly. So there were a bunch of videos that went viral that purported to show show black women who are moms doing the whole like the most caricature ish welfare queen shtick you could possibly imagine. All of them turn out to be AI. AI generated total bullshit, made up, invented out of whole cloth. The number of conservative influencers and outlets that fell for this crap should make you despair for society, period. So here is Brett Cooper, who is very, you know, has a large channel, very popular, it's et cetera. Here is Brett Cooper falling for one of these AI videos. There are bad actors who have abused the system time and time again. And now that benefits might be cut off next month, they are lashing out to say the least. Just watch.
- [63:50]
Saagar Enjeti
It's been day five and I have.
- [63:52]
Krystal Ball
Not received no food stamps.
- [63:54]
Saagar Enjeti
My disability checks is on hold. My cash benefits is not coming no more. They're still pending. It is the taxpayers job job to.
- [64:04]
Krystal Ball
Pay for my kids to eat and.
- [64:05]
Saagar Enjeti
For my kids to be taken care of. I have over 2000 followers on TikTok.
- [64:11]
Krystal Ball
And I can't get not one person to send me 50 cents. If you're watching video and you can't.
- [64:17]
Saagar Enjeti
Send me nothing, I'm blocking you.
- [64:19]
Krystal Ball
Now let me say in fairness to Brad, if you guys are just listening to this, looking at the video, I.
- [64:24]
Saagar Enjeti
Think it was like to me it looked 100% hard to tell. It looked absolute. Maybe I'm reaching boomer levels of my inability to parse AI, but like that's pretty much what's it called, like the realistic standard. I forget the uncanny valley that's outside the uncounting valley. To me it looks 100% like from what I could tell.
- [64:44]
Krystal Ball
And that's not to excuse Bruck because we, yeah, you should always tell you.
- [64:48]
Saagar Enjeti
Guys and we do it here all the time.
- [64:49]
Krystal Ball
We really try because we realize at this point we can be fooled. In fact, there was an element we didn't throw to in the segment before because we weren't 100% sure that it was real. So you know, you have a responsibility to check these things out. And what I will say too, just as like a user guide, especially if something is just tailor made to fit one political your particular political perspective and it feels a little too much on the nose. Those are the ones you need to be the most suspicious of. In any case, it wasn't just that one video. Apparently this one account created a bunch of these just like racist AI welfare queen slop videos. Here's a TikTok breaking down this one creator and what they're up to.
- [65:30]
Saagar Enjeti
This is AI. Here's how we know and why it matters. It's made by Impossible ASMR1 who after after 8 failed slot posts and a 3 month break, decided that SORA could finally make their dream content videos of black women trying to use EBT in places it's not accepted. True creativity unleashed by AI. The shutdown created an opportunity to have them yell at the camera. But it's not until the whole family is back there that the full racist stereotype is fulfilled. This is rage bait and will get angry commenters who when they learn it's AI will say oh, but it's true anyway. Which of course it's not. And that's cope for being played. They were so played they didn't notice the kid missing half an arm while the other kids are frozen in place for no reason. And these down here are warping together. They were too focused on this fake AI person cramming in a script that they used 3 other times for their other fake AI people. I will gladly knock down AI rage bait of all kinds and from anywhere on the spectrum, because it's part of the same problem. Problem? Casually letting our feed slip into fake parallel AI universes that exist only to divide us.
- [66:37]
Krystal Ball
All right, so it's not just random online influencers, however, who were tricked by this stuff. It was also fox news ago, b8 guys up on the screen that shows you the new and the old headline. And this is so. This is so sleazy too. So the first headline is, snap beneficiaries threaten to ramp ransack stores over government shutdown. One mother claims taxpayers must feed her children as SNAP benefits face cuts. That's the video that Brett Cooper played. They wrote this up as a genuine story. Like, look at these women and what they're saying. My God. I mean, total classic throwback Ronald Reagan era politics, right? Let's use a few bad examples to like, you know, smear everyone who benefits from this whole program in an effort to cut the program. That's what they were going to for here. Then they find out, oops, all those videos were AI and so they totally rewrite the article, Same lady here, same byline. And reframed it as, oh, AI videos of SNAP beneficiaries complaining about cuts go viral and put B7 now up on the screen. So this is the new way that they rewrote it. They rewrote the whole article to be like, oh, we totally knew that it was AI. Don't worry, you know, we totally get it. It's just this phenomenon of AI videos. The only disclosure they gave was this tiny editor's note at the bottom that said this article previously reported on some videos that appear to have been generated by AI without noting that this has been corrected. Like, that is so incredibly sleazy that they got tricked by the AI videos, wrote a whole, like, welfare queen scare scary article, and then had to rewrite it once they got caught and realized it was AI. And they only put that little editor's note at the bottom. Bottom, like, absolutely disturbing. And you know, this is. This is the landscape we exist in now. This isn't coming like, this is here. And I think SORA has been probably a jump forward in the level of accessibility of high, like, pretty convincing AI creation that can now just be fed into your political feed. You've already got campaigns like Andrew Cuomo's campaign put together AI attack videos against Zoron and Curtis Lewa in the final days of the campaign. Trump of course, is using all sorts of AI stuff. And the other thing that I've noticed, Sagar, too, is, like, some of the videos, even the ones that are completely obviously AI people will still be fooled by it.
- [68:59]
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, yeah, I'm looking at it right now. I just opened Sora just to see. I haven't actually checked beforehand. I mean, if you look at some of this stuff, I mean, it looks real, right? It kind of does look real.
- [69:09]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [69:09]
Saagar Enjeti
We could put some of these in here. I think that might literally be something. But this is the genre of, like, what?
- [69:14]
Krystal Ball
Okay, that one doesn't look real. That one.
- [69:15]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it could be real.
- [69:19]
Krystal Ball
You know, Mac was saying that I'm sure you guys probably. We all get served all these, like, adorable animal videos, and I get lots of cat videos and whatever. And he was saying that in these TikTok compilations that he'll get served. Some of them will be real and some of them will be AI. And so it's all mixed in together, and it becomes impossible to tell reality from complete fiction. And so now we're at a point where, you know, I mean, not that Fox News has the highest of standards here, but they have a massive audience, are incredibly influential, continue to be in the conservative space, and they're just getting wholesale, taken in by some garbage AI videos that you can see that only took, like, 10 minutes to create.
- [69:57]
Saagar Enjeti
You could see this happening a million times. Right. Look at any. Anybody. And this is part of the problem with confirmation bias and part of why it's so important, you know, to hear it from here. Like, if you're left. Right, whatever. If it's too good to be true, it almost certainly is. Now at this point, this is a problem on Twitter, by the way, with their verification policy where anybody can just. Just buy a blue chick. There is literal fake news BS that pervades all of Twitter, and apparently a huge number of these accounts are from abroad because the payouts, I guess, are, like, meaningful enough for them. As a side note, anybody who spends their life trolling for Twitter payouts, you are stone cold loser. The amount of money that I have made off Twitter in the last year would not be enough to turn the lights on in this studio for, like, three days. Like, just so you're all aware of, like, with the amount of money and.
- [70:46]
Krystal Ball
You have a big account, it's, like, fine.
- [70:48]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, it's like a couple hundred thousand followers.
- [70:50]
Krystal Ball
It's a lot of people.
- [70:50]
Saagar Enjeti
Sure, yeah. But it's not like, you know, I'm not only have Millions of followers or whatever. But my point is, I literally went to go look, it's like less in a month than what you would make in YouTube from a day. So anybody out there, you're wasting your time. You should just spend your time on YouTube, like, wherever. Podcasts, that's a much higher ROI platform. But the point is, around this is with AI, if it's limitless in terms of the friction to create these types of videos and to get the amount of views, which, whatever, then that money starts to add up in the aggregate. And if you have an entire farm, let's say in Bangladesh or China or wherever, where these types of dollars can go a much farther way, then, yeah, it might actually be worth it for them. But just please, like, for real, everybody out there, if it seems too good to be true, you have got to make sure. And this happens with everything. I mean, on the Israel conflict, right? You know, remember the Israelis were always like, oh, that's a Pallywood fake video. Right? I mean, it's hard, right? We're here. We're thousands of miles, miles away. We're trying to suss out what's real and what's not. You have no idea. I mean, you know, me chasing this whole Venezuela thing, you haven't. I mean, the amount of bullshit which is out there and trying to get to the stores, it is not easy right now. And people will lie and they'll use AI. Like you said, they're currently. There's a lot of that in Latin America, right? Because there's a huge amount of, like, shorts usage down there. There's tons of slop in terms for propaganda purposes. So everyone just be careful.
- [72:09]
Krystal Ball
Everybody knows we are not ready for this. Everybody knows that. Then you can't find a single person who's like, oh, yeah, we'll be able to handle this. Well, like, look at how fucked up the political landscape already is. We can't handle this. This is insane. I've got one more piece for you. This is B9. This AI this clanker, quote unquote. Artists. We got to come up with another word because if you're AI, you cannot be an artist. But in any case, we have the first AI AI song making an appearance on Billboard's radio chart. Zenya Monet debuts on the adult R and B airplay chart with How Was I supposed to Know? We listened to it this morning. It's fine, it's fine.
- [72:51]
Saagar Enjeti
It's not my personal favorite, but it's pretty good. If you told me it was AI, there's no way I would know.
- [72:55]
Krystal Ball
I just wouldn't. I actually am pretty attached to humanity. I like the idea of art having human sense, sentiment and emotion behind it and connecting to some real experience, not some amalgamation of farmed experiences from the Internet that no robot could ever truly understand or relate to. So I find it disturbing.
- [73:22]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I think most people do. I've been on a big post AI apocalyptic movie kick and Elysium. Tell me Elysium Hits. It was not that well received at the time, but I increasingly think is one of the most accurate films made. It's one of It's a Matt Damon film from back in the day. Again, not very well critically reviewed, but I just watched it the other day. I think that's where things are trending. Ah, greetings from my bath festive friends. The holidays are overwhelming, but I'm tackling this season with PayPal and making the most of my money, getting 5% cash back when I pay in four. No fees, no interest. I used it to get this portable spa with jets. Now the bubbles can cling to my sculpted but pruny body. Make the most of your money this holiday with PayPal. Save the offer in the app ends1231 see paypal.com promoter points can be redeemed for cash and more paying for subject to terms and approval. PayPal Inc. And MLS 910457 this time of year, most of us are checking off our holiday gift lists, but identity thieves have lists too, and your personal information might be beyond them. Protect Your identity with LifeLock LifeLock monitors millions of data points every second and alerts you to threats you could miss. If your identity is stolen, LifeLock will fix it, guaranteed, or your money back. Make this season about joy, not identity theft. With Lifelock, save up to 40% your first year@lifelock.com iheart terms apply. This episode is brought to you by PBS, home of Ken Burns. Burns his newest film, the American Revolution, reveals untold stories of people, some familiar, many forgotten, who risked everything to change the course of history. It's the story of a war that was bloody, complex and profoundly consequential. Ken Burns and his co directors Sarah Botstein and David Schmidt shine a light on how this historic fight for independence lit the spark for freedom that still burns today. The American Revolution premieres Sunday, November 16th at 8.7Central on PM PBS and the PBS app Don't miss it. This is an iHeart podcast.