← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
11/4/25: Trump Threatens NYC Voters Over Zohran, Saagar Rips Boomers Avoiding Taxes
01:21:55
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A
This is an iHeart podcast.
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B
This is Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. JBL Tour Pro 3 earbuds are for those who don't conform to the standard. Yeah, I mean if you want to get into some touchscreen technology, how about the smart charging case Clear sound. These are not standard things. You're only going to get them with the JBL Tour Pro 3 baby. And I love the sound of JBL and goes. These earbuds are packed with innovation because you can't stand out following others. Touchscreen Smart charging case for one touch control, instant EQ customization, true adaptive noise canceling and the one of a kind audio transmitter which can plug and play with everything from game consoles to in flight entertainment. What more could you want? First doesn't follow. Grab a pair@jbl.com I turned off news altogether.
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C
I hate to say it, but I.
- [00:56]
B
Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
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C
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
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B
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.
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D
NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
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B
At Lowe's this Veterans Day and every day verified military members, veterans and their spouses get automatic silver status in Mylo's Rewards with free standard shipping plus 10% off eligible purchases with no annual limit. One way we honor and give back to those who have served and still do. Learn more now@lowe's.com Military 10% discount can't be combined with another offer. Exclusions Terms and Conditions apply. Loyalty Program Subject to Terms and conditions details@lowe's.com terms subject to change hey guys, Sager and Krystal here.
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C
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
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B
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
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C
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
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B
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.
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C
What do we have?
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B
Crystal?
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C
Indeed we do. It is election day 2025. Lots of interesting races to dive into with our friend Logan Phillips. Also taking a look at the New York City mayoral race. Trump is intervening in a big way. Lots of questions about what all of this means for the future of the Democratic Party. So, of course, fascinating one to watch there. We also have some new dire warnings coming from the CEOs of Kraft Heinz and also Chipotle about consumer spending as AI increasingly dominates the economy. That will flow right into a segment on AI. Elon Musk is saying that no one's going to work in the future. So is that the future you guys are excited about? Is that in fact what's coming? We will take a look at the indications. Prince Andrew officially stripped of all of his titles. And some new revelations coming out there with regard to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. And we are digging into Trump's pardon of cz, founder of Binance. Emily and I talked about this previously, but Trump got asked about it on 60 Minutes and claims he doesn't really know anything about the guy. He doesn't have any idea what's going on. So pretty revelatory there in and of itself.
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B
Yeah, that's right. Before we get to that, thank you to everybody who's been subscribing breakingpoints.com especially on election night. It means a lot. We're gonna be doing a stream later tonight, so it's gonna put that graphic up here on the screen. We will have a live coverage the elections in Virginia, in New Jersey and New York City. Ryan and Griffin will be on the ground there to bring us all of the exclusive stuff that they can get from the Zoran Mamdani hq. And also just to see what the vibe is and whether he will break the coveted 50%. That is indeed the big question I think of tonight.
- [04:02]
C
They'll be in New York. I will be at home holding down the fort and, you know, parsing other election results. Dave Weigel is going to join us. And Emily, I think, is actually going to be at a winsome Sears.
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B
Exactly.
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C
Victory party.
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B
We'll just call it a party.
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C
We'll party. Yeah. So we'll get the vibe from Republicans as well. One more thing before we bring in our guest. Dick Cheney is dead at age, what, 83?
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B
84.
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C
84.
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B
Yeah.
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C
That's about all we have to say about that.
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B
Yeah. Yeah. They say if you have nothing nice to say, then just don't say anything at all. So there you go. Okay, let's get to the show.
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C
All right, guys. We are joined in studio today by our great friend Logan Phillips. From Race to the White House to break down the big races that are happening today. Great to see you, Logan.
- [04:46]
E
Hey, great to be here.
- [04:47]
B
Good to see you, man. It's been a year, crazy year.
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C
It's been what, a year? It feels like it's been a decade in my personal opinion. But in any case, let's go ahead and take a listen to Harry. Anton did a breakdown of the big races and where the polling stands and we can get into your analysis out of that.
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F
Democrats lead all the key races. You go to New Jersey, Governor. That's really the only close one. Mikey Sherrill, the Democrat up by six points. Abigail Spamberger in Virginia, up by talent. Zahra Mandani up by 16 points in New York City. The bottom line is this. Yes, there are ideological differences between the Democrats, but the key common component is they are all going after Donald Trump and all the Democrats lead. From New Jersey to Virginia to New York City, they all lead the Republican and independent opponents. Donald Trump is a huge, huge drag in all of these races. Look at his net popularity ratings. In New Jersey, he's 11 points underwater. Virginia, 14 points underwater. Not much of a big surprise. In New York, he's 35 points underwater. And I will note nationally in my aggregate polls, he's about 13 points underwater. In our CNN poll, he's way below that, which looks a lot like New Jersey, a lot like Virginia. So these races in my mind could be huge bellwethers going into next year to understanding how Donald Trump is impacting these races. Look at what has happened when Democrats sweep New York City, New Jersey and Virginia, Governor, they won the U.S. house the next year five out of five times in the last 90 years. You go all the way back to the FDR administration. So the bottom line is this. When Democrats do well in these off year elections, when they sweep New Jersey, Virginia and New York City, historically speaking, that means they go on to win the US House of Representatives the next time around.
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C
So reacting to that, you know, the sort of broad national scene is your assessment line up with Harry Enton's. Do you see Trump as being a major factor in all of these races as well?
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E
Yeah, Donald Trump's definitely a major factor and he's at the low point of his popularity in his first year of the second term, which is bad timing for Republicans. That being said, what I'll disagree with Harry is how much we can take those combinations because Virginia used to be a very red state for a big slice of those years. At times, New Jersey was a red state too. And so that combination was probably a lot more powerful in the past than it is right now.
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C
May not have the same predictive. That's a very good now that it used to.
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B
Right. Because Virginia is just a blue state. It's more about the question of margin. I mean I guess New Jersey does.
- [07:06]
C
Have a Republican governor. Yeah, yeah, definitely swimming. But even that it's like a little more Democratic.
- [07:11]
B
It's a little weird. Right? I mean. Okay, let's get into your, some of your projections. So we have a two please. Let's put the New Jersey governors race to me maybe the most interesting one. So you have Mikey Sheryl, some 92% chance of winning Chitterelli at 8% and a projected margin of victory of around 6. I do believe the RCP polling average is only around 3% in. There's been some Logan that have shown some closer races like maybe like 1% or so for Cittarelli. And you know, allegedly according to some of their own internal polling they even have a potential chance of being up by one and it could indeed be close. What are the dynamics of this race that make it the so called closest race? I think of tonight there's a tendency.
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E
Among northeast voters in New England but also it carries over to New Jersey where if it's the right kind of Republican, you're going to see a lot of voters that are going to cross over. Ciatrelli, even though he's been linking with Trump a lot more this time, is a lot more moderate and he's a really good campaigner. It's why managed to do so well last time and overperform expectations. So CHL is probably putting a race in play that with a weaker Republican, especially one that might have been more closely linked to Donald Trump's brand and might not be in play at all. But it's still just really tough to win a blue leaning state even if it's gotten more competitive lately in a midterm with a Republican president, especially one that's unpopular.
- [08:23]
C
Yeah, yeah, let's, let's put up the A3 guys. If you have just the New Jersey ones or we can cycle through all of them. But these are the poly markets odds of, you know, for each of these races. New York City mayoral race, you know, Zoron is at 91%.
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B
Go to Jersey.
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C
Personally think Cuomo is probably a little overrated at 9% at this point, but we'll see. Put the next one up on the screen. We've got Virginia Abigail Spanberger, basically a lock 99% chance according to Again to Poly Market. And then the last one here, New Jersey, Mikey Sheryl, though, I mean, even though we've had polling that's pretty close and Republicans seem to feel at least somewhat bullish on this race, she's still got an 87% chance of victory according to Polymarket anyway, according to what the odds are. So what are people seeing that are making them feel so confident that she's likely to prevail ultimately?
- [09:13]
E
Yeah, well, I think part of it's just the history of the state. There's only been one time in like the last 30, 40, 50 years where it didn't vote against the party that was in power again. You know, so New Jersey and Virginia just have this strong tendency and it just doesn't feel like with Donald Trump, who is such a polarizing president at such a polarizing time, that this is the time when New Jersey is going to break away from that pattern that makes sense.
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B
I think that, that, that, that broadly just seems to be the general bet. And so like you said, with the margins, I think here are more what's interesting. Let's put your Virginia prediction, the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial race you have from your own polling model here we have some 98.7% chance of, according to your model, of a Spanberger win with a 1.3% chance of win some Sears. I guess the more interesting question then is the projected margin of victory. Your projected lead is some 10.1%. How would that align historically? Is that a blowout in historical terms for the gubernatorial race? I guess the similar one that we could Compare to is 2017, the Ed Gillespie race, I think. What was it? Ralph Northam. Right. And that was kind of a precursor to the 2018 Democratic victory. What do you think?
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E
Yeah, well, there's contrast between New Jersey. Right. New Jersey, you have two candidates that look highly competent that both parties are investing heavily in. I think Republicans feel that their odds in New Jersey, I mean, in Virginia are kind of a long shot. The candidate that's been pretty unpopular, it's been tarnished by her past statements and aggressive ads. The Democrats heavily out fundraising here. And honestly, above all else, I think what made Virginia so hard for Republicans to win is there have been so many jobs that have been lost in Virginia that if you're in Northern Virginia, either you lost your job, one of your friends lost your job, or one of your friends friends lost your job. Right.
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B
And so, and right now, you know, probably 15, 20 people who are furloughed.
- [10:59]
E
Exactly.
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C
Yeah.
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B
The shutdown does not help the shutdown is not good, I think, for the Northern Virginians.
- [11:05]
E
Yeah. So that's not going to affect the mindset of everyone in the state, but it's going to heavily affect a huge part of the state that has a very large population. Places where Glenn Youngkin did much better than expected four years ago. And so they're going to swing hard, likely back in the other direction.
- [11:19]
B
That's very true. I think it's an important point. So, like where I live in Alexandria, Virginia, you know, traditionally a very, very blues place, but I mean, you know, Glenn Youngkin won like 30% of the vote there, which I know it's not a lot, but that's for us. That's crazy, right? It's absolutely crazy. This time around, you don't see anything. I remember the Youngkin election. You actually saw Youngkin signs. I haven't seen any winsome Searside nothing. Spanberger ads are everywhere. Absolutely. Blanketing the entire area. Similarly to kind of what you're saying. So what margin of victory would be an over performance, do you think, for Abigail Spanberger today? So you have her at 10%, but what would send a statement, she ends.
- [11:57]
E
Up winning by like 14 plus, I think would be a big statement win.
- [12:00]
C
Yeah.
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B
Okay.
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C
I think I was looking it up. Ralph Northam won by roughly. It was like just under 10, I think.
- [12:06]
E
Yeah.
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C
And so people are looking at that as kind of like a marker, you know, if she's able to beat that, that would be the strongest performance for a Democrat in kind of like recent years. So I think that's what a lot of people are looking at. What about down ballot in Virginia? I know the attorney general has been embroiled in controversy because of these violent text messages that were released. That seems to be the race, at least the statewide race. That's the closest. You know, what do you see for the lieutenant governor and the attorney general races here?
- [12:32]
E
Yeah, that's going to be decided probably by the reluctant J. Jones Democratic voters, the ones who desperately don't want to vote for someone that says the things that he says, but also desperately don't want a Republican as Attorney general. Some of those voters will probably leave the ballot but blank. Some of them will cross over. I suspect most of them will end up voting for Jay Jones. And I think this is. This is part of being in such a polarized time that it's very easy to find an excuse to vote for someone that maybe isn't the best person.
- [12:59]
C
To be, that maybe you're not in love with. But partisan feeling Trumps whatever concerns you may have about that individual. Let's put a seven up on the screen. This is a map of the early turnout in Virginia thus far. The darker blue are the places that have seen a higher percentage come out to vote already. And you know, if you have even a, you know, a basic grasp of Virginia geography, you can see Northern Virginia is turning out Richmond and Richmond suburbs, turning out some in the Chesapeake Bay area, Norfolk area, over in Roanoke as well. But you know, those areas, the Richmond suburbs, Northern Virginia, those are the places Democrats want to come in strong. So far it looks like, you know, that is panning out. Although, you know, it all comes down to who actually shows up on election day. I personally have not yet cast my ballot. I gotta get on that.
- [13:46]
B
Yeah, I need to do it today as well.
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E
Yeah, yeah. And I think above all else. Right. It's really hard to measure how much that turnout is going to help one side or the other just because we don't have a good model to do this based off the past because turnout dynamics have switched so much that Democrats are voting early in way higher numbers. However, like I think you'd want to see something with that race in particular for Republicans. That was saying this is different than you expect because the expectations are really bad for them going into the race.
- [14:10]
B
See, yeah, I think that's the key is as you said, and I'm glad you're giving the caveats, early turnout models have basic. I wouldn't say bunk exactly, but they have really not been all that predictive over the last five years, especially with COVID Can we put a six on the screen? Crystal, you flagged this. This is from a Virginia analyst and what he said, which is kind of interesting, is that with early vote now we have our first solid data. Democrats are overperforming previous numbers in urban, suburban, exurban and rural precincts. Chances are very good Dems will have their biggest margin win for Gov in modern VA history. This also means probably a comfortable win for Democrats in the LG race. The numbers indicate a favorable playing field for the AG but the Dems, but not certainly a lock at all. Meanwhile, Democrats in the House are looking at a minimum 6 peat pickup with double digits within reach. If we went by early mail in voting, Democrats would win greater than a super majority in the House. Obviously Election day is more Republican friendly, so that's why things will come back. He says if you nailed me down to a specific number, I would say 60, 61, 39, a 10 seat pickup. I think there would be Massive in Virginia. I mean that does sound massive. Right. Cause it's historically kind of been 50, 50 for what we've seen in the state.
- [15:20]
E
Yeah. Well these are the elections where you are able to pick up those big advantages. Think about it this way, right. Like it basically whoever is the president is going to give the out of power party a huge edge relative to how they would normally do. And so this is kind of similar to Glenn Youngkin just winning the race. And the state House being so close last time around is Democrats are going to similarly perform in a state that from the very beginning is now blue leaning.
- [15:44]
C
Let's take a look at the New Jersey turnout. Even though we just said that the early turnout is not all that predictive. This is information we've got.
- [15:51]
B
Everybody forgive us.
- [15:52]
C
Put a eight up on the screen. This is from election analyst who's been taking a look at New Jersey says GOP hit 70% of their 2024 in person early numbers in just two counties. Meanwhile, 14 out of 21 counties have Dem turnout greater than 70% of their 2024 in person early numbers would seem to indicate, you know, again in the early votes Democrats are turning out at a higher percentage than Republicans. You know, Democrats also their coalition has shifted much more towards the type of voters who vote in off year elections, who vote in midterm elections. Who are those reliable? If there's an election, they're showing up to cast their ballot. So that does tend to be a benefit as well in these odd year elections.
- [16:34]
E
Yeah, I mean we've been seeing this in special elections to a crazy level. Right?
- [16:37]
C
Yeah.
- [16:38]
E
If you were to see how much each one of these individual districts vote Democrat or Republican on average, it would suggest a D +13 national environment.
- [16:46]
C
Wow.
- [16:47]
E
Right, Right.
- [16:48]
C
So you're talking about just with the.
- [16:50]
E
Special election, for all the special elections we've had this year.
- [16:52]
C
That's crazy.
- [16:53]
B
Okay, so extrapolate that to the House. What does that mean?
- [16:56]
E
Well, if you do that in the House, I mean, oh my God, you're going to win the House and you have a shot at the Senate. Yeah, probably won the Senate. Now I don't think you're going to say that we can plug that into next year's election in 2026, but it's a really good sign for Democrats. It won't be as big as that, but it does suggest their energy is really high. And if you have another sign where to keep over if they overperform all their metrics in this election.
- [17:15]
C
Yeah.
- [17:16]
E
And win these races easily, we'll talk.
- [17:18]
C
A little bit more about that. How predictive are the margins in these? You know, because Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states that do their full elections in these off years. How predictive has that been of, you know, national performance in the past?
- [17:34]
E
It's a little helpful. It's a good, like general trajectory of this is better than expected. But don't read too much into it because voters opinions do change over time and they have a year for things to feel differently.
- [17:45]
C
Yeah, well, for example, I mean, Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia. Big upset. Pretty surprising for a lot of people, especially because the narrative had been basically like, oh, Virginia is just a blue state now. And then the midterm elections come around and Republicans dramatically underperform. So it didn't end up being all that representative of what was gonna happen a year from then.
- [18:02]
B
But also the special elections, if we stick on that in 2022, ahead of the 2022 midterms, they were doing quite well. Even though red wave was the narrative. I mean, we covered it here live and it ended up being one of the most, you know, determinative factors in terms of looking instead of the polling was actually a lot of the actual votes that were cast where there was huge Democratic over performance in some of those races.
- [18:26]
E
Yeah. And I think that 2022 is a perfect example because people's opinion changed. It changed after Roe v. Wade. All of a sudden, the special election started going wildly different. Republicans were doing great at first.
- [18:37]
C
Yeah, I was just looking yesterday at these numbers. I didn't pull this element, but I thought this was fascinating. So back in November of in Trump's first term. So the same time in Trump's first term, people had an overwhelmingly positive opinion of the economy. 68% said it was good, 30% said it was poor. And still in 2018, his party did not do well. In the midterms. This time around, those same, that same poll, Those same numbers, 72% of people say that the economy is poor and only 28% say that it is good. You know, how much has the economy. I know we talk about Trump is like looming large over these races, but how much also is, you know, affordability, cost of living and just general economic sentiment being negative impacting these races as well.
- [19:20]
E
Yeah, I think there's a huge switch in terms of how people view Donald Trump. Last time they didn't always like him as a person, but because they liked him on the economy, people stayed with him. This time around, it seems like it's almost reversed. That People who are with him like him anyway, but they have some concerns about how he's handling the economy.
- [19:34]
B
That's smart.
- [19:35]
E
And it helps because you can so clearly link the tariffs that almost every American, including a huge slice of Republicans, disagree with. But he keeps going all in on. And I think there's something to watch in the future. Right. The storyline, which is justifiably so, is that Donald Trump supporters are going to stick with him no matter what. But there's a big slice of his voters. When you ask them, like, not just do you approve or disapprove, but do you strongly or somewhat approve, there's a huge slice over 20% that say they somewhat approve. So there's some soft support that if the economy really starts to struggle, that might actually abandon him.
- [20:07]
B
Well, I've made this point the entire time. Everyone says Trump supporter. It's like, well, there's a big difference between somebody who's quote, a Trump supporter and self identified MAGA and somebody votes for Trump in the 2024. Right. That's like what tens of millions of people who are self identified, like Trump, curious or voted for Trump, but they don't self identify as MAGA in the race, which is literally the swing part of the election that everyone's always talking about for independence, like going into these, these types of elections who certainly might vote Democrat or they may just not turn out. I mean, that's what I think a lot of the story could be as well.
- [20:38]
E
Yeah, yeah, I think so too. I mean, the only problem, the problem for Dems, right, is that they're not particularly popular either.
- [20:43]
B
Yeah, right.
- [20:44]
E
So they have this amazing potential to pick up especially of these young voters that might have wandered away. But while they might not like what Republicans are doing, they only slightly like Democrats more. So if they can change that, like they could potentially get a huge advantage with them again, maybe it even endures, which is the trajectory they seem to be on a few years ago. But that's not going to happen automatically. Now, I don't know if you can do that in a midterm, but by 2028, that seems to me the most important thing for them to be able to take back the White House to.
- [21:12]
B
Increase their own popularity.
- [21:13]
C
Well, and speaking of young voters, we're going to dig more into the dynamics of the New York City mayoral race in a bit and you know, take a look at what this means for the future Democratic Party, Trump intervening, all of that. But we can put a 5 up on the screen because it certainly looks like Zoran is once again remaking the electorate in New York City and, you know, a much younger electorate than we've seen in the past. We saw this in the primary as well. So far, 18 to 29 year olds have voted at a rate of 130% of what their turnout was back in 2021. So already before election day comes, they have surpassed the, you know, the numbers that they put up in 2021 for the entire election. And you can kind of see, you know, as you, as you get older, as the demographics get older, they're voting at lower percentages compared to what they did in 2021. Now, again, election day will be ultimately determinative, but, you know, not a lot here to give hope to the Cuomo stands that there's going to be some, you know, shocking upset, some secret hidden Cuomo vote here at the end of the night. Unless there's just way more 18 to 29 year olds who are excited about the disgraced former governor than we really anticipate.
- [22:27]
E
Yeah, I think you're spot on when you said the 8% was a little too high for him. Yeah, it's like $3 for 92 cents.
- [22:33]
C
Yeah, yeah. I mean, you don't see. Is there anything in the data there that would indicate anything weird happening? Yeah.
- [22:40]
E
I'll give you one thing. I mean, yeah, I'm stretching here a little bit. There was a massive polling miss in the primary.
- [22:47]
C
Right.
- [22:47]
E
Mayor races are a little weirder to pull. It's a three way race.
- [22:50]
C
Yeah.
- [22:50]
E
So I feel like there's more room for things to go awry. That being said, there's considerably more polls. It's not a primary anymore. And like, I'm just not seeing the signals. Cuomo clearly is not the same type of campaigner he was when he was running for governor and Zoran is. I mean, the 130% is just incredible that he's able to do that before you do that.
- [23:10]
B
Also, in an era of negative polarization, if Donald Trump and Stephen Miller endorse you, how could that possibly be to your benefit?
- [23:18]
C
And Elon Musk too, by the way.
- [23:20]
B
It's like just from a pure politics point of view, I mean, look, I guess what Trump did okay in New York, in the state, not really in the city, we did okay. Right. In New Jersey as well, I think he lost it by five points or so. There is the whole Staten Island, Long island conservative, you know, kind of Trump Republican, which is certainly like an understudied demographic. But you know, broadly in terms of this election. And considering who the electorate is, it doesn't seem like it would be all that helpful to try and drive your turnout.
- [23:53]
E
Yeah, I think it's clear that Cuomo didn't want this because Trump didn't make this announcement until the last night, even though he's been passionately following this race and talking about all the time. So this suggests to me that he just couldn't help himself. It was just the night before and he just felt he had to get.
- [24:06]
C
Way in, had to do something.
- [24:07]
E
Yeah, I don't think it's going to be helpful.
- [24:09]
C
Lastly, we can put a 9 up on the screen here. This is Boltz Magazine breaks down, which by the way, great, like, great coverage. They go in depth on like if you are an election nerd. Bolts magazine is where it's at because Daniel Nishanian goes into literally everything that's going to be on the ballot, from the candidates to, you know, undercovered races to ballot initiatives and all of that. And, you know, a few other things to highlight here. You've got some Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices that are up, I believe there's in Georgia, utility commissioners are on the ballot. You've got mayoral races in Albuquerque, Detroit, Jersey City. Minneapolis is one that's kind of interesting. And Seattle, of course, you also have that California ballot proposition that to determine whether or not they're going to be able to redraw their maps. I mean, that one looks like a sure thing as well. Any other key races that you're taking a look at that you think will be interesting for for people tonight today to follow?
- [25:04]
E
I hate to disappoint you, such a vanilla answer, but you covered all the ones I'm following.
- [25:08]
C
Okay, well, there you go.
- [25:09]
B
Okay, but so what? Just lay out the consequence. We talked about gerrymandering. Why does the Supreme Court case matter? The Pennsylvania Supreme Court one?
- [25:16]
E
I think it matters in part because that's how Democrats are able to ensure that they have, from their perspective, fair maps potentially in the future. It's also a huge bellwether signal about how they might do in the next election. And also this has become a recent advantage for Democrats post Roe v. Wade and especially all these Midwestern states that while they're really, really competitive, are very, very pro choice, that Democrats have been dominating a lot of these court cases.
- [25:45]
B
Well, it's not given just on abortion, but as I understand it, it's also election law because the high IQ version of the stop steal movement, if there even is one, was focused on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and its decision to Allow mail in balloting extension. And so that seems to be kind of the flashpoint, I think, for election law as it would be decided in some potential 2028 race.
- [26:06]
E
Yeah, I think you're right. I also think that for Republicans in Pennsylvania, they probably have forgotten about that. So it's not going to still be the rallying turnout message that will get them to care and go vote when they might.
- [26:17]
B
Otherwise, I haven't seen much Mastriano and all. It was, it was a total disaster. Right. And Josh Shapiro is like pretty popular. Yeah. Governor.
- [26:24]
C
Well, the other, the Georgia Utility Commission, those are also state wide races. Yes, that was another sort of like indication of, I guess, excitement there. Last question for you. You know, if you're Democrats, you're looking at these results, you're feeling pretty good that you're going to be able to prevail in New Jersey, in Virginia, you know, what kind of margins do you think is the benchmark where they can feel like, oh, man, we really, we really crushed it. We're in good shape right now.
- [26:45]
E
I think if you win by 10% in Virginia and 6% in New Jersey, you're feeling pretty good. Now, I know that kind of lines up with expectations, but honestly, those expectations are a good sign for the future. You want to be winning the races that you're supposed to win. Most midterms go the way of the party out of power, and so carrying along that path is a good sign for them.
- [27:03]
B
All right, good flag. Thanks. Logan. Logan, good to see you, man.
- [27:06]
C
Great to see you. Thank you.
- [27:07]
E
Great to see you guys.
- [27:11]
A
I turned off news altogether.
- [27:13]
C
I hate to say it, but I.
- [27:15]
B
Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
- [27:20]
C
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [27:24]
B
We got clear facts. Maybe we could calm down a little.
- [27:30]
D
NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
- [27:40]
A
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ads supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers are into, true crime, sports, comedy, culture, they'll hear your message. Plus, only Iheart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. And all this reach means everything. Just think about the universal marketing formula. The number of consumers who hear your message times the response rate equals the results. Now let's get those results growing for you. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart streaming radio and podcasting. Let us show you at iheartadvertising.com that's iheartadvertising.com or call 844-844-IHEART. One more time, call 844-844-iHEART and get podcasting working for you.
- [28:36]
C
You.
- [28:40]
A
Here we go.
- [28:43]
D
Hey, I'm Cal Penn, and on my new podcast, Here We Go Again, we'll take today's trends and headlines and ask, why does history keep repeating itself? You may know me as the second hottest actor from the Harold and Kumar movies, but I'm also an author, a White House staffer, and as of like 15 seconds ago, a podcast host. Along the way, I've made some friends who are experts in science, politics and pop culture. And each week one of them will be joining me to answer my burning questions, like, are we heading towards another financial crash? Like in 08, is non monogamy back in style? And how come there's never a gate ready for your flight when it lands like two minutes early? We've got guests like Pete Buttigieg, Stacey Abrams, Lilly Singh, and Bill Nye.
- [29:27]
E
When you start weaponizing outer space, things can potentially go really wrong.
- [29:33]
D
Look, the world can seem pretty scary right now, because it is. But my goal here is for you to listen and feel a little better about the future. Listen and subscribe to Here We Go Again with Kal Penn on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [29:51]
C
So, as we were saying, today is also election day in New York City. The mayoral election there, of course, hotly anticipated Zoran Mamdani looking like he has a strong lead here going into. But we do have a last minute intervention in the race from the President of the United States who is basically threatening New Yorkers to vote against to vote for Cuomo and vote against Zoran to avoid his retribution against the city. We can B4B up on the screen. This is Trump's truth that he put out yesterday evening. He says, if communist candidate Zoran Mandani wins the election for mayor of New York City, it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing federal funds other than the very minimum as required to my beloved first home. Because of the fact that as a communist, this once great city has zero chance of success or even survival can only get worse with a communist at the helm. I don't want to send as president good money after bad. It is my obligation to run the nation. It is my strong conviction that New York City will be a complete and total economic and social disaster. Should Mamdani win, his principles have been tested for over a thousand years and never once have they been successful. I would much rather see a Democrat who has had a record of success win than a communist with no experience and a record of complete and total failure. He was nothing as an assemblyman, ranked at the bottom of the class, and as mayor, potentially again, the greatest city in the world, he has no chance to bring it back to its former glory. We must also remember this. A vote for Curtis Levois, who looks much better without the beret, is a vote for Mamdani. Whether you personally like Andrew Comer or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it. Mamdani is not. So Andrew Cuomo on a local radio show was actually asked about Trump's support for his campaign, and he literally hangs up the phone in response to the question. This is before, guys, let's take a listen.
- [31:41]
B
Your boy was just on 60 Minutes. Cuomo saying that you're his guy. No, first of all, Trump said you're his candidate. If he had to pick a bad Democrat. Or what did he say? Or Communist. Or a communist, he's picking you.
- [32:04]
C
Hello?
- [32:05]
F
I think that he was.
- [32:06]
D
They cut him off. I think he had to.
- [32:08]
B
That he had to rap. He just get. Oh.
- [32:13]
C
I really wanted to hear that answer. That's what I was gonna ask you. Pretty wild to just hang up. To not have a response to what is an incredibly obvious question that you're gonna get asked by anybody, you know, radio or political media in this final stretch. And he also tweeted out yesterday, Andrew Cuomo did. If you want President Trump to try to take over the city, National Guard on streets choking federal funding, vote for Zoran Mandani. Because Trump just said he will be coming and this poser Zoran won't be able to stop him. This is a fact. The next may to be able to get us more, not ensure our demise. I'm the only person in this race who can do that. So basically acting like a mob boss here, like threatening the city if you don't. Trump saying, if you don't vote the way I want you to, then there's gonna be hell to pay. And Cuomo just playing right into that, say, hey, look, Trump's threatening you guys. You're gonna just. You gotta go with me or else there's gonna be all these horrific consequences brought to you by the President of the United States in the city.
- [33:09]
B
Yeah. This is the Argentina strategy of telling voters that if you want your money, I actually not realize this. Just looked it up. Some 8.3% of the total New York City federal budget actually relies on federal funds that is slated to drop to some $7 billion this year because of some pandemic related stuff, which is winding down. They say though, that the federal government provides a suite of New York City funding from residents, agencies, nonprofits, public housing, healthcare providers. Over 100 billion in federal funding flows to the city of New York almost every year. Which again, I had no idea. Guess it kind of makes sense. It is the largest city in the state or, sorry, in the. I guess the question comes down to how these New York City voters are gonna respond. I mean, this is one where I have been mystified by the Republican response. It's like they don't understand negative polarization. It's like you people are not popular in the City of New York. And if anything, by the way, I think they're giving Zoron a lot of COVID Remember when we were always talking about sanctions? You know, one of the things that we could say for Venezuela, for Iran, and for many other opponents of the United States, whenever things go badly, what do they say? It's America's fault because they've sanctioned us. So let's say a lot of the Zoran programs don't work out, fail, and he's not able to accomplish them, which I think is the most modal scenario. Well, in that, what can you be like, oh, it's Trump's fault, right? He can actually resuscitate his own popularity. So if things go to complete shit in the city, which, look, if you cut 8.3% of the federal of the budget, let's say you even cut half of that and you have a significant funding shortfall and you see problems start to manifest, Republicans will be like, that's on Zoran Mamdani. But he can just easily say, no, that's on Donald Trump, and actually make it so that nobody will ever really know. A lot of Democratic voters in particular will also just say, yeah, Trump is the one who declared war on him. So I think they're actually saving him politically, making it so that there's no real test of anything that he's gonna be able to do. And they're handing him like some great gambling in particular. Also just politically like Stephen Miller endorsed Andrew Cuomo yesterday. In what world do you think that that is politically smart, right? Like, if you wanted Cuomo to win, I would do something along the lines of saying, I'm the Most scared of Andrew Cuomo. Right. I would make it so that because you want people who don't like you to negatively polarize and actually vote for the person who is perceived as your biggest enemy. I just don't get it.
- [35:38]
C
I mean, the thing is here, there's nothing Trump can do to change New Yorkers minds at this point. You know, I mean, if he'd stayed quiet, that would probably be a little better for Cuomo, but it's not like that was gonna rescue him. He tried to intervene and get Curtis Lewa out of the race. All the billionaires, I mean, it was wild to watch all of these billionaires just out in the open. Like, we cannot accept the Democratic result here. We must intervene. We will spend whatever it takes to make sure that our guy is propped up and becomes mayor in New York City. And ultimately, I mean, look, the votes aren't cast yet, you know, the votes aren't in yet. So we don't wanna be too premature here, but certainly looks like all of those efforts were for not. I mean, it does bear remarking on how insane and how truly like unprecedented it is for the President United States to threaten a city with consequences. All the New Yorkers like, we're not talking about threatening Zorin. I think Sagra's right that in some ways this will be beneficial to Zoron and his popularity in the city. You're not threatening Zorin, you are threatening the lives and the livelihoods of New York City residents. These are people you are supposed to, as President of the United States, you are supposed to represent them. A lot of them voted for you. Right? You didn't win the city of New York, but you actually did better than previous Republicans had in the past. Zorin launched his campaign going out and talking to residents who were saying, yeah, I voted for Trump because I thought that he would do better on the economy, I thought he'd bring cost of living down, et cetera. I mean, that informed a lot of how Zorin actually structured his campaign. So not only do you have Trump threatening the city, you have Andy Ogles and some other Republican representatives in the House threatening to try to keep Zorin from taking office, saying there's some 14th amendment way that could allow Congress to block New Yorkers from being able to pick the candidate of their choice, you have Randy Fine and others who are threatening to denaturalize him and deport him to Uganda again just because they don't like him and they don't like his politics. And a lot of this comes down to Israel, by the way. Certainly for Randy, fine. It comes down to Israel. Just complete and utter insanity. Like New Yorkers are allowed to elect the mayor that they want to elect and they shouldn't be faced with retribution from the President of the United States. So completely wild. I think you're right. Even on the political impact short term. I lived in New York for five years. I have a little bit of a sense. I'm married to not a New York City resident, but a New Yorker. So I have a sense of the New York vibe. And they're gonna say, fuck you, you don't want me to vote for Zoron. I'm voting for him even harder now. I'm showing up early to vote for this guy again in on Sunday. They are gonna do whatever they can to tell Trump, screw you, you don't get to mess in the affairs of our city. So it's grotesque the way this guy operates and it is truly a break from the way we've seen anyone. I mean, I can't think of a single. Can you. Historical precedent for like, I'm going to come in, I'm going to threaten to withdraw funding and send in likely federal mass agents into your streets to wreak havoc and cause chaos if you don't vote the way.
- [38:33]
B
Well, I don't think that's a Zoron thing. I think that we're gonna do that regardless. But you know, in terms of. I'm trying to think, I guess Ford, Ford telling the city to drop dead. That was in the 1970s. That was more.
- [38:44]
C
But that was. He wasn't gonna. Rusty.
- [38:45]
B
It was like a bailout thing. Yeah, it was like. I'm trying, honestly, I have to rack my brain.
- [38:49]
E
It's been a while.
- [38:50]
B
It's. It's not exactly usually said this explicitly, although I guess it does technically take some precedence. I mean, look, I. I just continue to sit on the politics of it. I just think it's incredibly stupid because I think. I think one of the things is, as you and I know, New York City is going to be one of the most closely watched places in the entire country now for any signs of potential failure. But if you give them the excuse that it's because the feds screwed it up, I mean, that's basically on you. On the point about ice and all that, though, I mean, don't you think they've already been doing ice raids in New York City? Like, I don't know why it would be any potentially different. They did it in Chicago, they did it in Los Angeles. They They've done Seattle. I mean, there's a recent one here in Houston. I mean, it's. I don't think that really has much to do with Zora. I mean, maybe, you know, and potentially to invite a fight with NYPD and his own political commissionership, but, I mean, that's. That one, I would say, is probably more to the benefit of the Republicans, at least politically, to pick a fight there. So. I don't know. I mean, I don't know how this is all gonna work out.
- [39:50]
A
I turned off news altogether.
- [39:53]
C
I hate to say it, but I.
- [39:54]
B
Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
- [40:00]
C
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [40:04]
B
If we got clear facts, maybe we can calm down a little.
- [40:10]
D
NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
- [40:20]
A
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ads supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers are into, true crime, sports, comedy, culture, they'll hear your message. Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. And all this reach means everything. Just think about the universal marketing form. The number of consumers who hear your message times the response rate equals the results. Now let's get those results growing for you. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart streaming radio and podcasting. Let us show you at iheartadvertising.com that's iheartadvertising.com or call 844-844-IHEART. One more time, call 844-844-iHEART and get podcasting working for you. Here we go.
- [41:22]
D
Hey, I'm Cal Penn, and on my new podcast, Here We Go Again, we'll take today's trends and headlines and ask, why does history keep repeating itself? You may know me as the second hottest actor from the Harold and Kumar movies, but I'm also an author, a White House staffer, and as of like, 15 seconds ago, a podcast host. Along the way, I've made some friends who are experts in science, politics, and pop culture. And each week, one of them will be joining me to answer my burning questions, like, are we heading towards another financial crash? Like in 08, is non monogamy back in style? And how come there's never a gate ready for your flight when it lands, like, two minutes early? We've got guests like Pete Buttigieg Stacey Abrams, Lilly Singh, and Bill Nye.
- [42:07]
E
When you start weaponizing outer space, things can potentially go really wrong.
- [42:13]
D
Look, the world can seem pretty scary right now, because it is. But my goal here is for you to listen and feel a little better about the future. Listen and subscribe to Here We Go Again with Kal Penn on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [42:30]
C
At the same time, we could put B1 up on the screen. This is how Zoron was closing on his campaign while Andrew Cuomo was threatening New Yorkers. Here you have Zoron on walking across the Brooklyn Bridge and, you know, out of clubs, dancing with everybody and being out and about with taxi drivers and really just trying to be, you know, in the streets with the people. At the same time, you had Hakeem Jeffries, you know, continuing to be asked about Zoran and whether he sees him as the future of the party. Hakeem Jeffries did very belatedly and very begrudgingly endorse Zoron in this race and get behind him once the writing was on the wall and it was absolutely inevitable. Let's go ahead and take a listen. What Hakeem Jeffries had to say. This is B2 about Zoran and the future of the party.
- [43:16]
B
Do you see Mamdani as the future.
- [43:17]
F
Of the Democratic Party? No. I think the future of the Democratic Party is going to fall, as far.
- [43:25]
B
As we're concerned, relative to the House.
- [43:28]
F
Democratic Caucus and members who are doing.
- [43:32]
B
A great work all across the country.
- [43:34]
F
As it relates to our need to.
- [43:36]
B
Both take back control of the House.
- [43:38]
F
But in doing so, make sure that.
- [43:40]
B
We'Re communicating to the American people like, we understand you deserve better than the.
- [43:46]
F
Country that you have received.
- [43:48]
C
This guy is just so lame. He's just so bad at this.
- [43:51]
B
Yeah. But the sad thing is, you know, he's gonna be the major beneficiary of a lot of this because it'll look like the midterm. I mean, unless there's some anti Hakeem Jeffries movement in the House of Representatives amongst the Democrats, and they actually would pick a new leader, which I obviously think that they should. I don't think they will, unfortunately, does. I think he's going to get away with this. I don't know if Schumer will, because he could gab a primary challenge against him, and he may also just may not run again for reelection. Signs currently point in that direction. But Jeffries, I mean, there's no organic movement against him. And I honestly think he's going to get away with it.
- [44:26]
C
You don't think there's an organic movement.
- [44:28]
B
Against him, against Hakeem Jeffries?
- [44:29]
C
Yeah, there definitely is. I mean, he may even have a primary challenge against him for his own seat in the House.
- [44:36]
B
Well, I was talking about in the House caucus right now. There's not a single organized, like, anti Jeffries movement, obviously. Look, you're right. Things can change.
- [44:42]
C
I mean, I think the base is very disappointed with him. And I think there will be a lot of pressure on Democrats to choose someone different for leadership. And you'll also have these primaries playing out where I do think some incumbents will probably, you know, I think you're going to have some dumb Tea Party vibes and some incumbents taken out and new renegades coming in who will be like absolute fucking lutely not. Am I voting for Hakeem Jeffries or in the Senate, am I going to vote for, you know, Chuck Schumer?
- [45:10]
B
I hope so. I would love to see.
- [45:13]
C
You know, I do think that his position, both as a member of Congress, but also as leader of the Democratic Party, given how lame he's been and how trashed the Democratic brand is and how disgusted the Democratic base is with him and, you know, how poorly he's been able to stand up in Trump 2.0. I definitely think that his, not that there's any guarantees, but I definitely think that his leadership is at risk here. And the way he's played the Zoron thing has been pathetic. And I mean, that actually in and of itself tells you something about his concerns. Concerns, because part of why he didn't want to endorse Zorin appears to have been that he wanted to get a guarantee from Zorin that he would not back a primary challenger to Hakeem Jeffries. And as far as we know, he never secured that commitment from Zorin. But it tells you he's looking over his shoulder, you know, towards the left of the party, too, and worried that he could be taken out in a primary challenge, which I do think is a distinct possibility. Abigail Spanberger was also asked about about Zoron. And Spamberger is the consummate centrist national security Dem of Rahm Emanuel's dreams, former CIA, blah, blah, blah. After Trump gets elected, she did a lot of this is all the left's fault. So we can put this next element up on the screen to see her reaction. So Ken Klippenstein tweeted this out and said, abigail Spamberger takes a swipe at Mamdani when she got asked about, about him and his impact, she said maybe he should be a Democrat, which I don't even know what she means by that. Like he, he literally won the Democratic primary. So, lady, what are you talking about? In any case, acknowledging when pressed that Mamdani is in fact the Democratic nominee, Spanberger said that for all the talk, including from within the DSA itself, about the DSA's growing power, she doesn't see Democratic socialism on the rise. She argues there's a level of dishonest dishonesty in some of the big promises Mamdani is making that she's worries could hurt Democrats with voters long term. Saying the reason she doesn't have a Mamdani style proposal for government run grocery stores is because I couldn't ever pass it. People do want us to be aspirational and dream big. They also don't want us to lie to them. She told cnn. When you have a party that makes promise after promise and then say we pass it in the House, it's not our fault. Vulnerable people believed you. Maybe he's going to get Albany on board with totally refinancing public transportation, but there's a lot of people who believe him. And so, I mean, this is kind of standard centrist ideology of like, well, big things aren't possible, so we shouldn't even put them out there. We're gonna nibble around the edges. And I just think, you know, this is a country that just elected Donald Trump, who was, you know, a bomb to the system. Like that is the whole purpose of electing a Donald Trump is that people are disgusted with it. The way things are, are they don't want you to just like manage the status quo and take around the edges. They want something that is more transformational. And so even if you feel like it's gonna be a difficult fight or it may even be impossible, you have to at least offer people some sort of aspirational vision for how you're gonna do more than just, you know, like palliative care and manage the decline of the empire at this point.
- [48:21]
B
Well, part of the fight, which I think is always missed by a lot of people, is not all Democrats have to be the same. A Democrat who's gonna win the Northern Virginia electorate should not look like Zoran Mamdani. And Zoran Mamdani or the New York City Democrat should obviously not be the person who was gonna be running, let's say, in the Midwest, right? That's why not all of these people can or should be the Same. That's the entire point of living in a pretty diverse and very different country locally. You can nationally stand for semi sort of principles on the point about like promising things. I don't know, I mean, to be honest, I'm seeing a lot of opium that's being being drank by I think a lot of the progressive left and I do think they're in for a rude awakening. I mean the vast reality is that he does not have the significant amount of power to enact the most the biggest promises of his campaign. Like even in terms of freezing the rent, part of the cope is always like, well he's not gonna freeze it for everybody. It's just gonna be on rent controlled apartments. It's like, yeah, well unfortunately, because you don't. I mean the system of New York is so governed by all of these various different councils, neighborh and other like, you know, NIMBY style stuff that's built into it that the net result is probably going to be some sort of, you know, organic market increase in the rent. I don't even think it's necessarily his fault. The rent's been going up for every single year, you know, since that happened. But that's, you know, I don't think it's particularly a good look same, I mean free buses and mta. The vast majority of the funding from that comes from Albany and the upstate. Like, you know, why would they necessarily want to play? All the feds are saying that they're gonna cut the amount of city services to you. The truth is I think that the mayor in New York has the absolute most control and even then not a ton when it comes to crime. That's basically it. And in a lot of ways Eric Adams most well understood the job because it was schools and it was also kind of just being a hype man for New York. I'm not saying he's a good person, but that's all he really focused his time doing was being a commercial sales for the city. But yeah, I mean I kind of.
- [50:28]
C
Think he, I don't think New Yorkers would say he understood the job since he ended with the lowest approval rating of any mayor in history.
- [50:33]
B
Sure. But whenever it comes to like what do you actually have power over picking up trash and crime policy, like that's basically it. Like you don't. And schools. Okay, I'll give them that. Which by the way, Zoron wants to do away with some gifted and talented schools.
- [50:44]
C
So I think the bet is that like you got a taste of the strategy when Hochul had to bend the knee to Zoran and came to his rally and was met with chance of taxation.
- [50:56]
B
Rich.
- [50:57]
C
And Hochul is facing a primary challenge.
- [50:58]
B
She's the person who could actually do that.
- [51:00]
C
Hochul is facing a primary challenger from the left. So that's where. That's where the, you know, the hope that you can actually push Albany to enact the policies that. Yes or on. Would need enable to deliver. Now, some of the things, I mean, the grocery stores he will be able to deliver on. He's actually already identified the funding.
- [51:19]
B
Right.
- [51:20]
C
The rent freeze is, you know, something that, like, through the Rent Stabilization Board, he should be able to accomplish. Now they're trying to stack the board with opponents of it, et cetera. But I, I mean, that is something else that is within the power of the New York City mayor, has been done in the past, and should be something that he can accomplish. The childcare is probably the biggest and most challenging one that does require action from Albany. And so, yeah, that's part of why. What happens in the election tonight, Look, Zorin looks very certain to win, but his margin and how strong of a victory, that's where those things start to matter. Because he needs not only to win, he needs to send a message that I have a powerful coalition behind me. And you, Kathy Hochul, are put on notice that if you don't, you know, if you don't tax the rich and bend to our program, then you're gonna face political challenges. And that, you know, I mean, we just talked about, like Hakeem Jeffries worrying, very likely Richie Torres is gonna face a primary challenger. You know, Dan Goldman, who's another one who wouldn't get behind Zoron is. I mean, that guy Brad Lander is gonna challenge him, Brawley, and he's. He's gonna have a very difficult time.
- [52:26]
B
I would love to see Mr. Levi Strauss forged.
- [52:28]
C
Yes, indeed. And you know, the question whether you have two progressives that split the vote. But I think if you get just Brad Lander in against him, he's basically toast. So those all send a real, very strong message to cynical political actors that you'd better work with these people and not be the roadblock to their ambitions. That's where the bet is now, is it easy to. No, of course it's not easy. What he signed up for is incredibly difficult. I think your point about Trump, in some ways, like kind of bailing him out and giving him.
- [52:57]
B
I think he is gonna bail out.
- [52:58]
C
Excuses for things that won't go. Cause there will be things that don't go the way he wants them to go. There's no doubt about that. And so having a narrative about why it hasn't lived up to the aspirational promises that are being put out there on the campaign trail, I think that will be actually significant benefit to him as well, and is a good point.
- [53:14]
B
Well, that's part of what's annoying is I don't think this guy's gonna succeed. I mean, I hate to piss in everybody's cornflakes, but, like, New York State's legislature has the total, total authority to raise taxes also. You know, this is part of the thing. I have a very limited experience with the state of New York, but as I understand it, the tension between upstate and the city is like the central thing in Albany. And in particular, the New York State legislature, because of the representative system in the Senate and with the governor from where they are, they do not like to not just bail out the city per se, but they in particular don't want to be seen as acting entirely on their benefit. There's an entire, like, white working class constituency outside of the city of New York, which the state politicians, people like Chuck Schumer, Kathy Holmes, they don't spend most of their time in New York City. They spend it in Buffalo or, I don't know, Plattsburgh or whatever, like, way up in the north, near the Canadian border. And the reason why is there's a ton of votes out there that have a very distinct set of, like, wants, circumstances, population, just totally different. Right. These are like rural areas. And so they have competing interests a lot of times with the city. And there is kind of a rivalry within. Again, I'm just relaying kind of what I understand the people who have worked in New York State politics, like, generally. So from that point of view, I mean, I mean, look, the net result is he has the most control over the cops, he has the most control over city services, over schools. And like, yeah, sure, I'm sure he can throw some culture war. You know, he'll create a transgender transition fund, which, you know, I guess is democratically representative of that population. But for the New York City state or for New York City, like, generally, he can do some virtue signaling on ice, but he doesn't have a ton of power, like, at the end of the day, day with nypd. And yeah, I mean, you know, you can end gifted and talented. Congratulations to the Asians of the city of New York. Like, that seems to be it. Like, to be honest, I really don't see very much now can he be a spokesperson and use it as a bully pulpit? Yeah, he absolutely can. And that has power. How can we deny that? But I mean, I don't know, I just think a lot of people in the city of New York, and I hate to be cynical but listen, you know, I've seen too many people get their hopes up around certain types of politicians when to speak crash and burn. Like the truth is, is that we live in a deeply corrupt, entrenched system. New York State is probably one of the most corrupt states in the entire country. The reality that you're going to raise tax and in particular you're going to lower rent in one of the most like cartel controlled cities in the world where the global super elite rich all have been flocking to for the last 30 years. It's fantastical. I mean even freeze raising rent control. Again the probably net market result is going to be a net result or net increase in rent generally in the city. You're also going to see you have huge tax problems. In New York you have a significant portion of the tax base which is reliant on the super rich. They're going to leave and you're going to find yourself in a huge budget shortfall. Like if you lose even 25 billionaires from the city, it's going to significantly hurt your coffers. I don't think it should be that way. I don't think they should, shouldn't have, I don't think you should have that sort of tax system. I've always warned that it's a huge problem. A lot of businesses and others, the city, employers, like there's a reason that he's been cozying up to these people in some ways because he knows like they can destroy your life. Like all they have to do is pull 8, 10,000 employees out. You lose a huge portion of the tax base. The developers, I mean this is just the reality. I think of what it means and I don't want to take anything away. I'm happy that people have some hope like left in politics but just seeing all of the different roadblocks that you face, I mean think about this. If you got your hopes up about the president, that's the most powerful man in the world and 90% of the time they can't get shit done whenever it comes to what they want. And this is a local politician with no statutory authority, no veto capacity, no taxation, no foreign policy, nothing.
- [56:57]
C
The alternative view, which is that Zoron has a much better relationship with Kathy Hochul than Bill de Blasio. Had with Cuomo.
- [57:05]
B
Yeah, that's fair.
- [57:05]
C
They hate him. Each other. Cuomo, I mean, legendarily hated each other. And Cuomo did everything he could to fuck de Blasio. Everything he could. And de Blasio made a big promise in his campaign. He said, we're gonna do universal preschool. Big promise. And Cuomo tried to block him at every turn. And even with that incredibly aggressive adversarial relationship and a lot less of a mandate and a movement behind and political power that Zoron has, he was able to do it. He was able to accomplish his goal. And now you do have universal pre K in New York City. It's a fantastic success. It's been incredibly important. You know, it's, you know, one of the, like, most impressive things that a local city government has been able to accomplish in recent years. So if de Blasio can pull that off with, again, much less of a mandate, much less of the sort of, like, political power and movement that he can wield, he didn't have any ability to threaten primary challenges against anyone. No one was looking over their shoulder because Bill de Blasio was gonna endorse against them. And you had Cuomo is just like, a legendary asshole trying to stand in his way. If he can pull that off, then, yeah, I think Zorin can pull some things off as well.
- [58:18]
B
And here's the question. Did he get any real benefit from that? Everyone hated Bill de Blasio. And the problem in New York City is soccer.
- [58:24]
C
It's an expensive shithole, but soccer, yeah. The residents in New York City did get universal pre K. Okay.
- [58:29]
B
But they didn't appreciate it all.
- [58:30]
C
De Blasio didn't. Was not, you know, particularly popular, but this program has been extremely impactful. So Zoran, I think, has a lot more going for him than de Blasio does. And we're gonna see. You know, that's. Like I said, the real question for him is gonna be, how big of a mandate does he have tonight? How much does he transform the electorate, you know, and what does that mean for a youthful energy around him and his administration? How's he able to get govern, and is he able to apply pressure to Kathy Hochul, to Albany, and is he able to sort of set the agenda, in a sense, where people's political benefit is to work with him rather than try to stop him? And to my mind, you already have seen that. I mean, even the fact Hakeem Jeffries felt the need that he had to endorse him is very telling. Kathy Hochul being at the rally with Bernie and aoc. Very telling. So, you know that's it's definitely gonna be difficult. You are absolutely right about that. But I have much more hope than you do that he's gonna be able to accomplish some key parts of his promises. And I don't think voters are stupid. Like, I don't think that they believe any one politician is just gonna like wave a magic wand and make everything perfect in the city. But they wanna see you out there fighting for the things that you claim to believe in and that you stood under.
- [59:51]
B
Well, I guess my worry is that a lot of these young people, part of the reason they're disillusioned with the system and that they think that stuff is going to work because they actually do think that he can do them. And I mean, he's not dishonest. I guess by saying he wants to do them. I believe him in what he wants to do. But I think they're incredibly naive as to the level of corruption and systems of politics and like how the balances in our system make it nearly impossible for a local politician to be able to deliver any of that. I mean, even the pre K thing like New York is not better because of it, is it? I mean, otherwise people would, would be super happy and be like, oh, what a great place to raise a family. No, it's a horrible place to raise a family. That's why a huge number of people who have kids left the city because they're like, this is a disaster after 2020. If Universal pre K was so attractive for children and for families in the city of New York and you have a net increase, instead you've had a net decrease of the level of people with children. New York is basically a playground for the rich. Their entire tax base revolves around.
- [60:48]
C
Well, and that's, that's. How can you possibly reverse that of Zoron and is. You're right. New York City has been run largely, especially by Giuliani and Bloomberg and Eric Adams as a playground for the.
- [61:00]
B
That has been, that is what it.
- [61:01]
C
Is who the policy has been catered towards. And so that is the true promise of Zoran's campaign is what if we actually ran the city for its like working class residents? What if we actually oriented policy to try to make it so that families can live here and they can survive and it's not so expensive that they, you know, that they can't continue to stay in the city because you know, there's all this talk about, oh, rich people are gonna flee the city, which I don't believe by the way, but in any case.
- [61:26]
B
But it doesn't.
- [61:27]
C
But the people who've been actually leaving the city are its working class residents. Like those are the people who are actually fleeing the city. And the city cannot survive without them. Like it will be a hollowed out husk without people, you know, working middle class people able to live and thrive in the city. And so that is truly actually the most difficult thing for him to accomplish is to reorient the city around the needs of the workers who actually make it run.
- [61:53]
B
I just again, I don't see how it literally is impossible considering the way that their progressive tax system is structured in the state of New York. The entire thing revolves around big businesses and extremely wealthy people Putting up with 50%, 60% net tax in order to go to Carbone at night, which, look, I think it's a degenerate and a stupid lifestyle, but you guys do what you want to do. You live there. My only point is just, just that the net benefit, let's say, of trying to orient around working class residents would require a top to down reformation of their entire financing structure. Like there is a reason that New York is the playground for the rich, because of the businesses and others that attract them. Like if you want to try and have some redistributive policy, people are going to make individual choice. I'm not defending it. I think it's a horrible system. But I think that to reform that system, again, it wouldn't even just take the state. I think that would have to be national policy. Considering where things are today. Like the net way that has been designed, I would say what since the 1980s, since Rudy Giuliani and all them came in, was let's make it a playground for Wall street and let's make it so that we can tax a certain percentage of all of these global super elites that love to hang out here. And that's effectively like where the city has gone, which I think is bad. I don't think it's a good thing for the, the people who live there. But I almost think it's at a point now where by trying to accomplish any of this, I mean, let me ask you this, what is success for Zoron? Like what is it? To me it would be, he needs to be popular at the end of his term. And two, let's say if we take him at his word, then the city actually does need to be affordable for the normal, let's say, let's call it 100,000 for a middle class worker, I just don't think, I think there is literally no way that that's going to happen.
- [63:36]
C
I think that is probably setting the bar too high. I think that he's popular and that he accomplishes, you know, let's say three out of five of his key goals, you know, affordable childcare being I think the most transformational one. So you know, if he's able to freeze the rent on rent controlled apartments and he's able to do the free buses, I mean the grocery stores are going to have him.
- [63:59]
B
This is my thing with the rent control. How can, why is that a win? So that people will get rent control?
- [64:03]
C
He promised it.
- [64:04]
B
Okay, great. But if everybody, everybody else's rent has to go up as a result of that, I'd be pissed off. His these people are paying 4800amonth for a two bedroom apartment.
- [64:12]
C
His policy though is like, that's like the catchiest part. But he has a whole housing policy that's very abundance pilled, by the way.
- [64:20]
B
Yeah, but I mean, what's the reality of happening? Zero.
- [64:23]
C
And so, you know, there's a lot more to what he's, you know, what he's wants to do on housing than just freezing the rent. But yeah, for those people who are in those apartments that's going to make a big difference. But that's a lot of people who are in those, in those apartments.
- [64:36]
B
There's 8 million people who aren't in those apartments and their rent is probably not sure.
- [64:40]
C
So are you basically arguing like you shouldn't try, you shouldn't promise anything, like why bother? Because that's what it feels like. You're prom. I mean if anyone has a chance of success, it's this guy who comes out of nowhere who's got a clear vision, clear promises he made to people that people like New Yorkers are excited about and who has the force of a political movement behind him to put pressure on the political powers to be, to actually effectuate that outcome. Like if anyone has a chance of success, it's him. Now is it easy? No. But yeah, I do believe in a politics where you try to do things that make people's lives better. And I think it's sad to just have a nihilist view of like, well it's not gonna fucking work anyway, so why bother getting people's hopes up?
- [65:20]
B
Well, I guess. No, I mean, I just think it's more about, look, if you live through Obama, I don't know how you can't be, you know, where I am right now in terms, especially with this stuff.
- [65:28]
C
So where are you, though?
- [65:30]
B
What do you mean with Zoron?
- [65:31]
C
Like, you think people shouldn't campaign on doing positive things? Like, what is your position here?
- [65:37]
B
Well, what did we talk about yesterday with voters? I mean, just a lot of voters are just literally just huffing a bunch of bullshit. Like they have no idea the reality of the city and the state that they actually live in. And so, yeah, I think they're in for a very rude awakening. I think that New York will be vastly more expensive in five years. Not necessarily as a result of Zoron, but just organic. And that's probably going to be a net failure. And if you live through that and you vote for that, that will continue down a dark path. You can fight for it if you like.
- [66:03]
C
So then what? Yeah. So what are the politics that you would support in that case then, for Zoron?
- [66:08]
B
Is that what you're saying?
- [66:08]
C
Yeah. Like, if you don't think that politicians should be trying to improve, like making promises about here's my plan to improve people's lives. If you think that's like getting people's hopes up, like, what kind of politics do you support?
- [66:22]
B
No, I support realistic politics in local, state and local. And state elections in particular, because that's part of what I'm saying is like the reality of affordable New York is something that you actually just don't have control over. And it's one of those where I think you could run for it as president and I think you should. You have a much, much better chance and much more statutory authority power to actually get a lot of that stuff done. That's kind of what I think.
- [66:42]
C
We identified five things that are doable. Difficult, sure, but doable. So what's wrong with that?
- [66:50]
B
I just said with freezing rent, I mean, you're running on affordability. You're not actually going to address the market rent system system of New York. You actually don't even have the power because of the ability with the boards and all those are currently being stacked. So, look, it's up to you. If you want to vote for him and you want to go through that, that's on you. You can have it if you would like. But it's just, I don't know, I want people's eyes to be open.
- [67:13]
C
I mean, I just see the. I don't know, I think it's funny. I'm gonna see it reverse. Like, he set out five. Not like easy slam dunk, but five things that are actually concrete and achievable so it seems like the opposite of the like pie in the sky. We're gonna have a socialist utopia.
- [67:32]
B
I've never said that he's promising pie in the sky. That's what I'm saying. Is that even the stuff that he's trying to promise. I mean, he even talked about taxation. You literally have no statutory authority to tax anybody. Literally zero. You can make a recommendation, you know, if you want to, but you do nothing in terms of taxes. You pick up the trash, you run the schools, you run the cops. And yes, you can occasionally like stack various boards which vote for, you know, based on corrupt interests as to whether to greenlight certain projects.
- [67:57]
C
So if he's able to accomplish a majority of the five key promises that he made, would you see that as success?
- [68:03]
B
Absolutely. Yes, I absolutely would. I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think he is in a chance in hell of even maybe like one out of five. And I do think that running on affordability and ultimately noting that it will probably. I mean, does anybody disagree with me that the New York's will probably be more expensive in five years today, even if he is mayor? Like, does anyone disagree with that? Well, then, you know, you're kind of selling a false bill of goods here. And I think that the reality. It's like you pointed to universal pre k. Like there's a lot of multifactorial things that go into making the place extremely expensive. No one person has any real power over that. It's a broad system thing. I guess the point could be I just signal to the system that people should change. That's a little different.
- [68:42]
C
Like I don't think people.
- [68:43]
B
Well, just yesterday you were saying that we should blame bodo.
- [68:45]
F
I don't blame people.
- [68:46]
B
I think a lot of markets stupid.
- [68:47]
C
I don't think we should think that voters believe he can just magically transform everything. I think that they believe that. You know, what if we have someone who in general is trying to orient policy more towards our needs, that's going to be to our benefit. I think they believe, hey, if we had access to free public transportation, that would be helpful. Right? Which again, he has no control over affordable child care. That would be helpful if we, you know, and they like the idea of an optimistic politics that experiments with things like, okay, we're gonna, you know, the grocery store. No one's saying it's gonna like transform everything. But hey, let's try some things and try to make life a little bit better for people in the city. I Think that's the idea. I don't think anyone's like, you know, he's gonna fix the cost of living crisis, and it's gonna be, you know, it's gonna be miraculous, and I'm gonna have an apartment for $800 a month or whatever. Like, I don't think anyone. I don't think anyone really believes that. But he's made a series of concrete promises, and so we'll be able to assess whether or not he's able to. To achieve them or how close he comes to being able to achieve those concrete promises.
- [69:46]
B
You may be right. My fear is that with Obama, I mean, look, I was young when Obama was elected. I actually thought that they would solve the financial crisis. I thought that the wars would end. It was a huge mistake, right, to believe any of that. And a lot of my current orientation is built on that. And then, by the way, in my adult life, had multiple campaigns, including in which you knew the people in power and you believed some of those people, and then they fucked you whenever they came into power. If you live through that.
- [70:13]
C
I don't know.
- [70:14]
B
I mean, look, that's my own orientation. You're catching me at a unique moment of time. But like, any time that I've even had an inkling, even with a ton of realism and all of that, to see the falsehoods and the fakery that you end up getting, it's a difficult pill to swallow. And I guess that's just where I'm coming from. And I do think that a lot of those 18 to 29 year olds have not been burned. Burned yet in that type of system. And considering where the Obama Generation went from 2008 for a lot, a lot of people were my age and your age as well, who lived through that, that level of lack of delivery and of failure left like a searing, searing thing at the heart of a lot of the way that we look at politics. And that is how I view Zoran Mamdani. And I think a lot of the people who support him are. I think they believe him. I think you're wrong. I think a lot of them actually believe that. That their rent is gonna go down. I think a lot of them actually believe that he will have the ability to have. I mean, how many people in the city of New York are sitting around talking about MTA funding? Like, it's just not a lot of people. How many people even know that, you know, the various boards and other people that set the. Which projects get to be greenlit and the stories and I mean, I could go on forever. Do you know about the scaffolding thing in the city of New York and the scaffolding cartel? Like, most people just accept it. They're like, oh, that's ugly. We just walk underneath. They have no idea the very various.
- [71:28]
C
You know, Byzantine's gonna try to tackle.
- [71:31]
B
Yes, I know. It's funny, I remember looking at that, I'm like, yeah, good fucking luck, man. I mean, the scaffolding cartel in the city of New York alone is one of those where that has been a problem for like 30 years. Unsolvable. Do I think that he's gonna do it? No, I don't. I think there's probably still gonna be scaffolding there. Like, there's all these various things from the. The city is designed to basically protect itself from Zoron. I think in general, the financial system broadly of that entire place is designed again to protect itself from any sort of democratic input. I don't think that's good and I think it's bad. I don't think that it could really be reformed until it's really at the federal level. Like, there's such a level of incentive and all that built in to keeping these types of places the way that they are that any one like local mayor, even though we may want to believe that, I just, I don't see the evidence for it. Like, yeah, I think New York is going to be more expensive whether or not is elected or not. And if anything, I think Trump is bailing him out because I don't think he'll deliver on basically much. Yes. If he accomplishes even three out of the five, I'll be honestly stunned. I would say he was one of the most successful New York City politicians literally ever. But the days of like, if. And even if we judge the great mayors or okay, fine, not the great mayors, maybe in our view, but the good mayors in the voters view is always what. It just comes down to crime. That's what they're like, oh, he lowered the crime rate, he cleaned up the city. They don't ever stay really ever much about anything else. Like, it doesn't. You only have a significant amount that you can actually control. And to be clear, President is very different, but in a lot of ways the same dynamics I'm talking about, they exist at every level of the political spectrum. And that's not to poison the. Well, I guess I just want people's eyes to be open for the reality of what you're not even what you're signing up for. But of what it even means to really participate, like at a local level. You don't have nearly as much control as you think you do. And I think it's sad. I wish you had more. I don't.
- [73:22]
C
Don't hope people don't. Don't. Don't believe in anything. Don't hope.
- [73:26]
B
You can believe. You can believe. You can believe what you want. Whether you will get any of what you want, I'm not so sure about that. Or if you do, it'll be very, very unique circumstances.
- [73:42]
A
I turned off news altogether.
- [73:45]
C
I hate to say it, but I.
- [73:46]
B
Don'T trust much of anything. It's the rage bait.
- [73:52]
C
It feels like it's trying to divide people.
- [73:56]
B
We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little.
- [74:01]
D
NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the Facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America.
- [74:11]
A
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers are into, true crime, sports, comedy, culture, they'll hear your message. Plus, only I, iheart, can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. And all this reach means everything. Just think about the universal marketing formula. The number of consumers who hear your message times the response rate equals the results. Now let's get those results growing for you. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart streaming radio and podcasting. Let us show you@iheartadvertising.com that's iHeartadvertising. Or call 844-844-IHEART. One more time, call 844-844, iHeart and get podcasting working for you. Here we go.
- [75:14]
D
Hey, I'm Cal Penn, and on my new podcast, Here We Go Again, we'll take today's trends and headlines and ask, why does history keep repeating itself? You may know me as the second hottest actor from the Harold and Kumar movies, but I'm also an author, a White House staffer, and as of like 15 seconds ago, a podcast host. Along the way, I've made some friends who are experts in science, politics and pop culture. And each week, one of them will be joining me to answer my burning questions, like, are we heading towards another financial crash? Like in 08, is non monogamy back in style? And how come there's never a gate ready for your flight when it lands? Like two minutes minutes early? We've got guests like Pete Buttigieg Stacey Abrams, Lilly Singh and Bill Nye.
- [75:59]
E
When you start weaponizing outer space, things can potentially go really wrong.
- [76:05]
D
Look, the world can seem pretty scary right now, because it is. But my goal here is for you to listen and feel a little better about the future. Listen and subscribe to Here we go Again with Kal Penn on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [76:22]
B
You want a good transition as to why I'm talking about the stuff that I'm and the people who rule us and the level of systems and the baked in assumptions that make it so that your life isn't going to be affordable. Let me all enlighten you about a little thing that's going on in my home state of Texas. Let's go and put this up here on the screen. Okay. This is like the hidden gerontocracy that rules all of us. So the Texas voters today will take to their ballot box to vote on a little proposition. Now that proposition is worded in such a way for property tax relief. Now who could be against property tax relief? Right? Nobody likes paying property taxes. It's horrible. Everybody wants to vote to cut them. But here's the little thing that they decided to hide inside of it. What they decided to hide is that actually what a lot of Texas voters are almost certainly decreasing green light is something called the Texas older adult homestead exemption, which would not only will the state pick up the tab for homeowners under age of 65, but those 65 and older would gain an extra benefit if the new property tax bills are approved by the voters. The current homestead exemption would be increased from current homestead exemption for those 65 or older is 110,000. That's already an increase from 50,000 two years ago. The exemption would then jump to 160,000 and a total of 200,000 would combine with thousand the two new thing what that means is that you get to write off a significant portion of your overall property value whenever it comes to the your actual property tax. 2 million Texas state residents would actually be affected by this. And what it would also do is cut the school taxes that people who are 65 and up would pay by up to 50%. So the way that this is worded is basically and by the way again, I'm under no illusions this shit's gonna pass 100% because everybody doesn't to want want to pay property tax. Well, and this gets to what we were talking about earlier. What most people in Texas love is usually like oh, we have no income tax. Well, okay, that's great. But it means that property tax is going to finance the vast majority of local services. Well, who wants to pay for those local services? Well, the people who benefit from those local services, let's say emergency services and others. And they're all financed, and this is a little reductive, but elderly people, by and large, you know, consume a large amount of those, those services. But what they have decided to do is to rig the property tax system such that they will get their school taxes cut. And the justification is that they don't have children in schools anymore, so they should not have to pay for it. Now, let's all just sit with that is that even though older people in the past had to pay for their children's schools, their decision is that because they don't use the schools, they shouldn't have to pay for them anymore. And what the net result means is that people who are using younger, who don't get a property tax homestead exemption, even though their property values are also exploding, not only will have to pay property tax, they will have to shift the burden of school taxes onto them. This is the type of hidden nonsense which makes it so that being young and having a family in this country becomes unaffordable. And these are the types of people who vote. And it's like, I'm so enraged by it because I'm watching this happen in every state across the country. New York state, by the way, very similar homestead exemption. This elderly exemption tax is built on this idea of so called fixed income. And the theory behind it is that people who are on Social Security should not be, quote, forced out of their homes. Now, first of all, they get a cost of living adjustment from the Social Security administration of inflation. That's number one. Number two is, at the end of the day, who is the state supposed to to serve? What is Texas so proud of? All of these millions of people moving from across the country for affordable housing to send their children to school, they're now gonna have to be stuck with more of a bill because these elderly people don't wanna pay for their children's school. We all live in a society. And just by the way, you know, in terms of this whole like, well, we don't use the schools, so we shouldn't have to pay for them. I'm not morbidly obese. I don't go on diet dialysis. 1% of the whole federal budget is for dialysis. I am not a Medicare recipient, a Social Security recipient. I don't get Any sort of exemption. I can't opt out. By the way, do you know how many childless people I know I lived where I currently live now for years with no children and didn't use the schools. I still had to pay the school tax. Childless people all over the country have to pay school tax if they're under the age of 65. I just think it's totally absurd the way this is happening. And this is again a nationwide thing which is gaining steam in particular in areas where a lot of younger people are moving. So let's put B8 please up on the screen because there's a similar measure down in Atlanta and in Fulton county where they similarly want to do some sort of cap for property tax and schools specifically for people who are 65 and above. This by the way, is only an expensive expansion of what is already the case in almost every state in the country which is adopting these 65 plus property tax exemptions for people who are on so called fixed income. And what it does is it locks elderly people into their homes. And you basically are supercharging the whole nation as California, where when people in California, you know, they bought a house at 200,000, they lock the increase in the amount of their property tax such that they don't have to pay the actual market, but when they sell the house, the person who buys that house still has to pay the property tax of the newly assessed market value. And what it means is that boomers never leave a shit ton of housing stock. So this is kind of what I'm talking about, about the hidden, you know, things underneath that make it completely unaffordable and that frankly, like it's not even a political. There's no politician that can just wave a wand and do away with it. Because here in tech, in Texas, where I'm from, this is massively popular. The way they phrase it is for elderly people. Most people are like, I want property tax relief and they don't even look at it well. They don't even understand what the benefit, like what the impetus behind it is.
- [82:24]
C
What I would say is this is actually part of a political vision that is being effectuated, which is there's a number of parts to this. I mean, number one, Republicans have long had a war on public education effectively. And you know, this is the point. Push for vouchers and against teacher unions. And all of you know, you see lots of anti teacher rhetoric coming from the right and you long have. And so that's one piece of this, like the excuse to cut the budget for the schools is something that Republicans are always excited to take up. That's number one. Number two, you have in the type of voters you're talking about, they're very politically powerful because I. They vote yes, they vote, they contribute to politicians, they do the volunteer work, they show up. And so, yes, they've amassed a large amount of political power. And so politicians very much cater to them. So then you have the long term national bipartisan project of inserting sort of like this hyper individualism where it's everybody up by their bootstraps, every man for himself. And so it manifests in ways like this, where you said this comment about like, they have to live in society, like, we all have to live in society.
- [83:38]
B
They don't belong in society.
- [83:39]
C
Well, and that's the thing is that is an ideology that has been perpetuated in this country for decades now of basically, like, who cares about society? You get yours. And I think we're at the like, extreme, like, tail end of that ideological project of where it feels like the economy is very uncertain, AI is coming, climate crisis, like existential politics, all of this, these sort of, you know, all of these sort of crises that are mounting and right in front of our faces. And so you have more and more people who are in a mentality of like, I'm just gonna get mine. You see that? All the way up to the White House, by the way, of like, you know, I'm gonna get mine with my, my crypto deals and building out my ballroom and doing whatever the hell I want while I can. So I think that ideology also infects the public. And not to make too much of it, but as you know, this is like one small instance of the way that that plays out in the public policy.
- [84:31]
B
But see, I don't think it's small because Florida is about to try and abolish all, all property tax that is the one of the oldest states in the country. Like, do we all understand that is that these places, which are zero income tax, are now going after property tax to make it so that all of the people who are young, who move to those states for affordability get the entire tax burden shifted onto them.
- [84:52]
C
It's deeply regressive. It is not only deeply regressive.
- [84:54]
B
Think about this. I mean, look, you know, I'm gonna sound like a uber lib now. At this point, who do you think is floating the state of Florida literally whenever it comes to hurrying relief? The federal government, who pays the vast majority of the income for a lot of their residents. The Federal government and all of us via Social Security. Who's the one paying for all their healthcare? All of us via Medicare. This is the stuff that drives me crazy. They have no qualms lobbying for their, you know, their tax free Social Security, every tax benefit in the world. They are the wealthiest generation in the entire country. They make it so they lock up the housing stock, increase vastly the amount of wealth that they have, and then lobby to make it so they don't have to pay very much for any of it on a tax level and shift the burden to people with young children. All of society is basically structured this way. I was talking recently about the health insurance thing. And the thing is if you look at the overall increase right now for not just Obamacare, but in general some 50, 15%. Well guess what, you know, we are paying hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. The average person who has, let's say two children, people on Medicare, you know, they're always complaining cause they have to pay one or two hundred bucks a month. It's like what a joke. And the theory is that, oh, that they paid into it. No, the vast majority of Medicare recipients receive vastly more dollars from the federal government than they ever paid into the system. And I just think what it does is that they're privatized. They're basically, basically we have socialism for the old and we have rugged individualism for the young. And they like it this way. This is part of the issue where the shifting tax burden and in terms of the cost of living crisis is dramatically affecting family formation, marriage, the entire American dream. And at the very same time, the states which have the most elderly influence are actually making it to shift even more of the tax burden on the people who are, who are younger. You even see it here in the, in the federal government who got the best tax cut, people who are old, Social Security, you know, there's no organized effort for anybody who's young. Like I've been thinking about an aarp, one of the most lob, you know, successful lobbying organizations literally ever. And of course nobody can crosswise them as politicians. Why don't we have that for people who are like 35 and under? Like why don't we have, you know, Anyway, hell like 65 and under. There's no like unity or there's no unity, sympathy or general consensus for a lot of people. So I guess it's a long way winded way of saying what you're backing up your point about society. People genuinely, especially the wealthiest and the elderly here seem to actually believe that they made it on their own and not because of a variety of structural factors which were societally based. And they're now telling the young people, screw you. Like, make it on your own. And I think that's sick.
- [87:41]
C
If you have, if you, you know, give up on, like, living. We live in a society and we're kind of all in this together. I mean, the country literally doesn't work. I mean, even if you think about right now we were talking about. Trump is threatening New York City funding, right? Yeah. Californians and New Yorkers are looking at how much they send to the federal government and how much they get back and are going, fuck you, fuck you.
- [88:07]
B
I feel that way right now.
- [88:08]
C
We float the rest of the country.
- [88:09]
B
It's true.
- [88:10]
C
You look at your Mississippi's and your Arkansas, you're nothing without us. New York and California and these blue states that have massive job creation and wealth and send more tax revenue or net have. Send more to the federal government than they're getting back. And so when that logic starts to take hold, you start to get, I've seen people calling for, hey, you know what? We're not sending our tax revenue in the federal government. We will send it to a trust to be held. And then when you give us what we're supposed to get, then we'll send you the tax revenue. That's the sort of thing that it leads to on a national level when you lose the idea of this is a society and we're all doing this thing together. And there's been a lot of bricks laid on the path to that place. But Trump, as with many things, is accelerating in that direction. When he's explicitly, he is explicitly withholding billions of dollars, dollars from states that he doesn't like. The politics.
- [89:06]
B
I mean, don't you feel that way?
- [89:07]
C
Openly threatening New York City right now because they're voting for someone that he doesn't like?
- [89:12]
B
I mean, don't you feel that way? I do. Like with this bailout to Argentina and every time we have to pay our quarterly taxes, I'm just like, oh, man, I guess it makes me happy. It's one of those where, look, you know, I don't want to fall victim to the same sense of the boomers. Like, but when you see what actually gets prioritized at the federal level, I just, why focus on the, on the, the, on the property tax thing? That is, the one which will. Has the most impact on your actual life is schools. If you're young is schools. And the fact that these People want to opt out because they, quote, don't use it anymore, while at the same time taking the socialized benefits that all of us are paying into and floating them makes. It's infuriating to a level that not nearly enough people have bought into. And what's even worse is a lot of people are like, oh, well, why would you ever want to tax anybody? I'm like, well, do we have schools or not? Like, we have to have a school.
- [90:03]
C
You want to live in a society where people are just, like, completely uneducated and illiterate and only the rich can send their kids to private schools, and that's the society you want to live in.
- [90:12]
B
We've already lived in that society, and we all collectively decided we're not doing that anymore. And now there's like this new war, basically, to say that public education. And I'm not some free college guy, okay, that's about higher education. I'm talking about K through 12. Did we not all have some sort of a consensus whenever it came to that? And we have a lot of local input. I think it's great that everybody fights about what's happening in schools. It's good that because it means you care about your education, you should have a say. But the point actually comes back to the reason you have a say is because you pay into it. And then these people don't even want to pay for it because they're not using it. They want some a la carte system for it. And this is the reason I'm raising the alarm, is that as they amass more wealth, more political power, this is now happening in almost every major state in the country. California has it for boomers now. Texas is going to expand it. Florida literally wants to eliminate it. If you are under the age of 35, if you have children, you are the person who is massively going to see your property tax bill. And it has to increase from somewhere. And in a lot of these, in a lot of cases, they're making it so that the burden. And again, you're already paying extraordinary amounts for health care, for basic costs of living. This is a singular part where public education, something we used to be able to rely on, is now actually going to be made more expensive for the actual families, for people who are going to be the future, which I think is totally wrong.
- [91:45]
D
This episode is brought to you by pbs, home of Ken Burns. His newest film, the American Revolution, reveals untold stories of people, some familiar, many forgotten, who risked everything to change the course of history. It's the story of a war that was bloody, complex and profoundly consequential. Ken Burns and his co directors Sarah Botstein and David Schmidt shine a light on how this historic fight for independence lit the spark for freedom that still burns today. The American Revolution premieres Sunday, November 16th at 8, 7 Central on PBS and the PBS app.
- [92:19]
A
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B
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A
This is an iHeart podcast.