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Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
Saagar Enjeti
Guaranteed Human.
Spencer Graves
A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers. But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught. The answers were there, hidden in plain sight. So why did it take so long to catch him? I'm Josh Zieman, and this is Monster Hunting the Long Island Serial Killer, the investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since the Son of Sam. Available now listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. A man with down syndrome tries the impossible, the grand slam in turkey hunting. 4:53 hits. We're legal, shooting light. And he gives us this one last chust.
Saagar Enjeti
Ow.
Spencer Graves
And he pitches off. And when he pitches off, he flies right into the gun barrel. I said to the cameraman, do you have him? He said, shoot him. I said, justin, shoot. You can download this episode and others from lines and tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Krystal Ball
You know, we always say new Year, new me, but real change starts on the inside. It starts with giving your mind and.
Saagar Enjeti
Your spirit the same attention you give your goals.
Krystal Ball
Hey, everybody, it's Michelle Williams, host of Checking in on the Black Effect Podcast Network. And on my podcast, we talk mental health, healing, growth, and everything you need to step into your next season whole and empowered. New Year. Real you listen to Checking in with Michelle Williams from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, guys. Sager and Krystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show. This is the only place where you.
Saagar Enjeti
Can find honest perspectives from the left.
Krystal Ball
And the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important.
Saagar Enjeti
To you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become.
Krystal Ball
A member today, and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the.
Krystal Ball
Future of independent news media, and we hope to see you@breaking points.com.
Saagar Enjeti
Good morning and welcome to Breaking Points. So, Emily, we have a plug off the top here.
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Subscribe to the show.
Krystal Ball
Subscribe if you're. If you're listening to this on podcast, you're watching us on YouTube and you haven't subscribed. It does help us a ton, right?
Saagar Enjeti
Just A button. We don't mean the, like, 10 bucks a month. Yeah, yeah, let me do that, too.
Krystal Ball
If you can subscribe to the channel.
Saagar Enjeti
Right. Like, the way the thing works, we try to get the biggest audience possible. Right. Because we want people to hear our, like, wise thoughts. Right. And then you got that giant audience, and then some of those are going to then end up paying for it and making the show possible, which makes it independent. It's like the. Like, the giant audience isn't what makes it independent. It's the people who pay that makes it independent. Because then we can, like, tick off some of our audience.
Krystal Ball
Right.
Saagar Enjeti
Tick off, like, the people who might say, you know what? Hey, YouTube, don't put our ads against this show. It's bad for us. Fine. Don't we have premium subscribers?
Krystal Ball
Also helps with the algorithm, too. If you subscribe to the channel, hit that button. Yeah. So that's a big, super easy way to help. If you want to make sure you're getting our independent news in your feed.
Saagar Enjeti
It's coming from our analytics. It has come to our attention that a lot of you watch this show but have not hit that button. Just hit that button.
Krystal Ball
Hit that button. Because we're gonna have more big guests coming down the pipeline. Just today's show alone, we have Senator Elizabeth Warren and we have Representative Thomas Massie. So huge show today. We're going to try to be as concise as we possibly can. It's not either of our strength, but we will do our. We'll do our very best.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And the world is not cooperating because it's not giving us a simple show to get through. We're gonna talk about the kind of fading protests in Iran and what seems to be the fading threat from Trump to bomb Iran, although the Israeli drive to push him to do that is just as strong as it was before. So I think we should know in the next day or two whether or not we're going to get war number two on Iran from Trump. We have a lot of different updates from Minnesota and from ICE around the country. We're also. We talked about the fact that we. Because there's always something kind of that breaking that gets in the way. We haven't really done enough in covering the conflict in Sudan, also the Horn of Africa, and the real tensions that are bubbling up in the Middle east that are related to the Horn of Africa, particularly. You've got the UAE and Saudi Arabia breaking into, like, a hot war over the last few days. Like, it's kind of a seismic regional event. So we're going to try to at least once a week put a segment together on Sudan to keep people up to date because there are millions of lives at risk. There are millions of people who are alive as we speak whose lives could be saved if there's enough attention on this and who will be slaughtered if. If that's allowed to happen.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. So for the near future, we'll be for sure doing that on Wednesday. Something to stay tuned for. We have Elizabeth Warren after she's recently had a call with Donald Trump. We have Thomas Massie as he is at the middle with, of course, a.
Saagar Enjeti
Friend of the show Roku, not talking to Trump.
Krystal Ball
Not talking to Trump at all, but, well, talking to Trump through social media. But frequent, frequent breaking points.
Saagar Enjeti
It is amazing that Trump is more likely to call Elizabeth Warren at this moment than Thomas Massey.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. So we will be talking.
Saagar Enjeti
The Clintons are right.
Krystal Ball
Exactly.
Saagar Enjeti
Looking to do abandon.
Krystal Ball
Epstein News. The Clintons are looking to do abandon, meaning they are not replying to a subpoena. They put out a big. They replied, well, not complying would be the correct.
Saagar Enjeti
They replied with a no.
Krystal Ball
The correct word would be yes. Not complying with a congressional subpoena. So big news on that front. We will obviously get Congressman Massie's take on that, but we are going to break down the new developments as well. Ryan, let's start with Iran, where as we were putting the show together yesterday, there was genuinely a question as to whether we would wake up or stay up all night watching a kinetic conflict with the US And Iran break out. It seems like the potential for that to happen at any moment very much is looming over the news cycle right now.
Saagar Enjeti
Let's watch his interaction with CBS News, Tony Dokupil, and we could kind of pick apart how we read this language and body language. Let's play. Tony, Americans woke up this morning and they saw that you said help is on the way. Yeah. What do you mean by that?
Tony Dokoupil
Well, there's a lot of help on the way and in different forms, including economic help from our standpoint and not going to help Iran very much. And you know, we put Iran out of business with their nuclear capacity. And now depending on what's actually happening, nobody has been able to give us accurate numbers about how many people they've killed on that point. Looks like it could be a pretty substantial number. And that's going to be a lot of problems.
Saagar Enjeti
A lot of problems on that point. You did say the US Would get involved if Iran started killing protesters. They have by the Many thousands, according to reports.
Tony Dokoupil
We'll see what that is. I've heard two numbers, but we'll see what that is.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, now we're hearing that they're going to start hanging protesters tomorrow. So it comes back to the question, have they crossed your red line or has the line moved?
Tony Dokoupil
I haven't heard about the hanging. If they hang them, you're going to see some things that I don't know what your. Where you come from and what your thought process is, but you'll perhaps be very happy.
Saagar Enjeti
What do you mean by that?
Tony Dokoupil
We will take very strong action if they do such a thing. We will take very strong action.
Saagar Enjeti
And this strong action you're talking about, what's the end game?
Tony Dokoupil
The end game is to win. I like winning.
Saagar Enjeti
How do you define that in Iran?
Tony Dokoupil
Well, let's define it in Venezuela. Let's define it with Al Baghdadi. He was wiped out. Let's define it with Soleimani. And let's define it in Iran, where he wiped out their Iran nuclear threat in a period of about 15 minutes once the B2s got there. And that was a complete obliteration, as it turns out, which is what I said initially. Then some questioned it and they said, you know, Trump was right. So we've been right about everything. We don't want to see what's happening in Iran happen. And, you know, if they want to have protests, that's one thing. When they start killing thousands of people and now you're telling me about hanging. We'll see how that works out for them. It's not going to work out good.
Saagar Enjeti
So a couple of things there. Trump clearly thinks that Tony Dokupil wants him to attack Iran and will be very happy if he does attack Iran. If he thinks that, he probably also knows that Tony would be upset at the original answer. So what kind of help are you going to be providing? He says this is all economic help. And for Lindsey Graham and those who are calling for war on behalf of the protesters, like, whoa, whoa, economic help. I thought we were going to do a regime change war here. Economic help. And then he. Then he's like, but it's not gonna help them, it's gonna help us. Which is like.
Krystal Ball
And Trump is reportedly being pulled in different directions by his own advisors. And so that's where the point in that interview, actually, where Trump questioned Dockerbell's numbers, so dokable as the newsman is giving the numbers to Donald Trump and Trump is saying, well, I've heard two numbers and we know that from reporting, if you believe it. But the reporting is that Rubio world and Vance World are pushing for some type of indirect right. Like you would know, like you would know this better than Ryan. But some type of like American version of Havana syndrome type activity in Iran rather than kinetic.
Saagar Enjeti
Do a little hack. Hack him a little bit. Yeah. And he also pushed back against some other reporters. You want to roll a two?
Krystal Ball
Let's do it.
Saagar Enjeti
So put. Yeah, here he is again quibbling with the, the casualty figures.
Krystal Ball
11 killed in Iran.
Tony Dokoupil
Nobody's been able to give me an accurate number. I have heard numbers from. Everything's a lot. One is a lot. But I've heard numbers much lower and I've heard numbers much higher. We'll be knowing. We're probably going to find out over the next 24 hours. I think it's a lot. It's too many, whatever it is.
Saagar Enjeti
So the context here is that there was an Iranian government source who gave some news outlets a number around 2000 that appeared to include also security services deaths because at least hundreds, it seems like hundreds of police officers and others were killed as well. That number is far from verified. But then you had CBS News come out and say they'd heard 20,000.
Krystal Ball
Right.
Saagar Enjeti
And if you peeled back the sourcing on their 20,000, they probably did hear 20,000. They definitely heard 20,000. The sourcing was like somebody called them from Iran and said that that was the number they'd been hearing. It's like, all right, that's interesting. But you can't. That's not a number you put in print and circulate.
Krystal Ball
Right.
Saagar Enjeti
That a person we heard from in Iran who said that was the rumor. Like that's not that. Maybe it is. We don't know. Like the Internet's been shut down for days, but like that, you can't report it like that. And Trump is like, I think, rightly skeptical there.
Krystal Ball
Well, you know, what you could report is that somebody in Iran is trying to push a number that seems suspiciously high. If you were going to report that number at all. There's one way to report it and it might be, wow, this source is connected to this government or that government. Now, of course, I'm just speculating here, but that is, you know, one of the ways that you could actually report it is with that it's not crazy.
Saagar Enjeti
To think that there would be a high number of casualties. Imagine if here in the United States, 100 plus police officers were killed in protests. How many Americans do you think would be killed in response to that? More than 100, that's for sure.
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
You can put up the next element to your point here about how close the war is. Israel's Channel 12 is reporting the assessments within the defense establishment indicate a US Attack on Iran is closer than ever. Security sources say that in light of recent developments, the question is no longer whether the United States will act militarily, but only when in response. Israel has been placed on a particularly high security alert in recent hours following President Trump's dramatic statements. All of that is true, that that is Israel's impression. It does seem like Trump is easing off a little bit and that this may be some wish casting on the part of the Israeli sources. We don't know. We'll see over the next few days. Witkoff, inflaming the situation a little bit, put up a 4 here meeting with Reza Pahlevi secretly. This is the kind of guy who wants to be reinstalled as king, but who has mismanaged this strategically. And up and down, up and down, left and right. He was asked about the high number of deaths among protesters on cnn. Did you see his response to that, Pahlavi? Yeah, he said this is war. People die in war. Like he might as well have been an Iranian regime source at that point.
Krystal Ball
Right.
Saagar Enjeti
It's like, well, if this is war, you have just, you have just completely stripped yourself of all of the leverage that you had, which is that this is not okay. It's not war. That these are peaceful protests by civil society that are trying to like, pressure the government.
Krystal Ball
Right.
Saagar Enjeti
It's war.
Krystal Ball
He's the son, of course, of the toppled Shah.
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
Krystal Ball
And that's where people haveyeah. I mean, that's a really significant question. And Wyckoff, obviously this is part of the situation in Venezuela and you know, part of the problem with regime change operations is that you need a new leader and you need a new leader that, let's just charitably take the US Explanation for now. Someone who would have democratic traction, that would have democratic clout, credibility, viability and, and even in a transitional process. And so Wyckoff, obviously meeting with Pahlavi, who, I mean, the odds that Pahlavi is able to lead Iran into a new era or even a return to an era of democracy, Ryan, seem short, but it may be all they have. And the fact that you have Witkoff, who is one of Trump's, obviously this goes without saying, top, top deputies, most trusted deputies meeting with him and then this getting leaked to Barack Ravid, whose sour, sourcing this looks like he's sourcing this to the Trump administration. He's sourcing it to a senior US Official. So it looks like they intentionally leaked it. Quite interesting.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And as people are noticing, it's also incredibly difficult to figure out what's going on inside Iran because all of the sources pretty much across the board are biased in one direction or another. The one that is used by the media, the most you can put up a six here, and I had reported on this right after the 12 Day War is this, this organization, Human Rights, I think it's called Human Rights in Iran. And then they've created the Human Rights News Agency. They are heavily funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, which is a CIA linked kind of us back thing. Now the AP and others have found.
Krystal Ball
That which just got a fat check in the new omnibus minibus proposal that Thomas Massie's fighting. We'll ask him later in the show.
Saagar Enjeti
Now, their numbers were not way out of line from what other sources were during the 12 day war. And the AP relies on them and they're way under what CBS News is out there claiming. But even they people are like, we want a reliable source, but what's your methodology? What's your funding? And it's all quite opaque. And so it's difficult to, for people to have any confidence. And so Trump may end up hanging a decision not to attack on that. Say, you know what? We don't, we don't know.
Krystal Ball
Right.
Saagar Enjeti
Unless they start like swinging hundreds of people from ropes in the streets then. And that gets out.
Krystal Ball
Right. So. Well, actually on that point, let's put the next element up on the screen here. This should be. Yeah, we can see a 7. This is just looking at Barack Ravid and there's this really funny video, right. I don't know if you remember it, of Zelensky singling out Barack Ravid and saying, you seem to be listening to all of my phone calls. That's from like a year or two ago. This is a post mentioning Barack Ravid, the former IDF intelligence officer, writes for Axios, had this to say about Iran International a few years ago, quote, and the Mossad is using this media outlet quite regularly for its information war.
Saagar Enjeti
It is. Yeah, it's an anti regime. Yes.
Krystal Ball
And here you have a former IDF intel officer noting that.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean it's true.
Krystal Ball
If anyone would know.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, Iran International is extremely suspect. You're like, you're not necessarily going to find credible source now. It's from 2022, speaking of suspect sources, but delivering interesting information. You put up this next element. This is. Yeah, so we were. It's the. It reads, we reported Tonight on channel 14. This is Israel's channel 14. Foreign actors are among the protesters in Iran with live firearms, which is the reason for the hundreds of regime personnel killed. Everyone is free to guess who is behind it. And so clearly implying here that the Israelis have armed the protesters. Now, what the. What the Iranian foreign minister did recently was call in European and also regional ambassadors to watch videos that they had been collecting from the protests of armed protesters. Call them whatever you want. Insurgents at that point, firing methodically at security personnel and operating with what looked like some level of training, like, not just like, you know, boom, boom, boom, like running, like running through, like showing some tactical sophistication. And so. And they. A few of those clips have been circulated, but they presented a much broader compilation of those to these. To diplomats from around the world to say, look, this is not just us doing a massacre. The bullets are flying in both directions. Now, it does appear like Iran's crackdown has been quite severe.
Krystal Ball
Absolutely.
Saagar Enjeti
We'll learn more about that. But their argument is we are not battling protesters in the streets, simply complaining about inflation or the collapse of the currency. These are people who are armed by foreign governments to overthrow the government. And you have to take that into consideration.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean, we're obviously in the middle of the fog of war, which is a very dangerous position to be. And we've seen it time after time in the last 100 years since you have the ability to get information from around the globe at any given moment, especially now, it feels like the theory would be there's more transparency than ever. And we remember this during the early days of the Arab Spring, go back to 2009, when Twitter was bringing us on the ground and helping the pro democr democracy forces. But actually, all of that, quote, transparency can muddy the water so much more because it's being spun very cleverly by as propaganda as anybody in the middle of a war would do or of a conflict would do. That's their opportunity to try and sway the west in one direction or the other. So that's obviously what's happening. It's just a question of getting with rational minds and cooler heads the actual facts.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And as our viewers may have noticed, I'm curious for your thoughts on this. Whenever there are protests in Iran, the American media and the Western media, you know, really hypes them up, like, very energetically. Very energetically. You would have noticed that we did not do that here. Now, there's a couple of reasons for that. One, they broke out right after we went down for like two weeks. We're not yet a 367 day a week, 24 7, 365 day, you know. News program Anchorman 2 yes. These, these anchor people needed a little bit of a break.
Krystal Ball
Yes.
Saagar Enjeti
So part of it was just coincidental, but part of it also then when we came back was we've seen this before. This may have been the bloodiest crackdown we've seen in a long time, but we've seen this before. And there isn't a, there isn't a serious kind of opposition that is organized with a plan to take power and run Iran. Like, that doesn't exist. And the Shah does not, the Shah's son does not seem like remotely serious. He claimed that he had 50,000 regime defectors ready to go. That clearly was a complete lie because they have basically, that movement has basically said that they will execute anybody that was complicit with the regime. So that's probably going to make it more difficult for you to get defectors right over your side. And it's also like, defectors over to what? Like, you need, like, if you were a regime defector at this moment, let's say you're a top IRGC commander or something, what do you defect to?
Krystal Ball
Right?
Saagar Enjeti
Like, who's, like, what's the organization? Who's the leader that you call? So there's no organization with any ideology or leader and the shot doesn't really count. So who do you call and say, like, I'm with you. Let's do this together. And also it's do what together? Like, what is the what besides the fact that the protesters don't like the regime? And so all of these things suggest to, like, just a casual observer even, like, that they're not going to overthrow the government. And so the more you hype it up here in the west, the more you encourage those demonstrations. If they fail and thousands of people are killed, you have blood on your hands. Like, you push those people into the, into the fire and they died. Lindsey Graham out there telling people, help is on the way, please get out in the streets.
Krystal Ball
Well, Trump is doing it.
Saagar Enjeti
Trump's saying, take, take your institutions. Help is on the way. And then you're like, oh, what kind of help? Oh, economic help.
Krystal Ball
Economic.
Saagar Enjeti
You're getting, you're asking people to get, to put their lives on the line with no plan to actually win.
Krystal Ball
So as this is, we can put this back up on the screen. This is A five as Barack Ravid reported, quote, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in door meetings in recent days that at this stage the administration is looking at non kinetic responses to help the protesters. According to a source with direct go.
Saagar Enjeti
Seize the streets, hold the, hold the town centers and we will have a non kinetic response.
Krystal Ball
Some days Trump had implied that there would be some type of strikes and he has obviously openly flirted with that idea. And to Ryan's point, the goal from the Lindsey Grahams of the world is to create a self fulfilling prophecy and to kind of will something into action. And it's obviously entirely possible that ends up up with people being crushed and no US strikes in response. If that's what people are betting on. It's possible that's not what's happened because even Rubio is According to this report from Barack Rabid, which again I would imagine was placed by Rubio, World is counseling against direct intervention. Vance World is reportedly doing that as well. Speaking of propaganda, let's finish here with A8AIPAC already in the ad game here. AIPAC already running ads about Iran where you can see Ro Khanna up on the screen.
Saagar Enjeti
This is catching from the tech oligarchs from apac.
Krystal Ball
While the Iranian people risk their lives for a better future. Ro Khanna has his head in the sand. That is an ad on X about Ro Khanna from APAC already in action. Boy do they want to take down roe.
Saagar Enjeti
They sure do. They're not not big fans of roe. And then yeah, final point, even if they do end up in the next few days launching airstrikes on Iran, there's no path. There's no theory of change, there's no path. There's no idea of how those airstrikes are going to dislodge the regime and replace it with another regime. I don't blame Israel for that. Israel doesn't actually want another regime in power. What they want is a fractured Iran that is a bunch of little statelets that are at war with each other and they can fund proxies like they do in Syria and Lebanon and Yemen and wherever else Libya. But the US pretends to want a stable world. And so we have no theory of how airstrikes are going to lead to the Shah taking power again, how that would actually even be a good thing.
Krystal Ball
What it would look like the next steps. And it's like you see in Venezuela, how ill considered I suppose different than 2019. Like they tried to have more of a off ramp plan post regime change than they did in 2019. But you see right now, even with all of the considerations that were already made in Venezuela, what that looks like Iran, different ball game as well, Right?
Saagar Enjeti
And Alashia had real charisma. People say, like, he had Riz. He had Riz rza. And he was still overthrown for a reason. Like, people hated him and hated the authoritarianism.
Krystal Ball
Well, they didn't love the encroachment on their sovereignty by his relationship with the West. And that's, again, something we've been talking about in Latin America. It's at issue when you have someone who's, whether forced or doing this willingly and eagerly making all of these deals, selling Iranian or Venezuelan assets and minerals, oil, whatever it is, to the US In a way that feels to people like it's exploitive. That's a powder keg. It's a powder keg. And they don't have a plan to deal with that.
Spencer Graves
Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app is a podcast designed for hunters and fishermen to enjoy success.
Ed Helms
I like the idea of like, hey, put me on a big deer. You know, hey, there's a big deer out here. He's doing this. Be looking for this deer. But I also love doing it on my own. I love going out there and saying, running my cameras. I love patterning the deer. I like showing up at the right time, checking the wind, knowing what stand I need to be in. And then whenever it all comes together and it happens, that's the most satisfying thing ever. So when you do it on your own, it's like, I then can hang my hat. But if I had somebody say, hey, pull up on these dots and catch them right here and you're going to win. And then when I go in, it's like, yeah, it's cool, I won the tournament. The ultimate goal is done. But it's like, dude, I. When you find them and you make them bite, that's the puzzle.
Spencer Graves
I love it. Listen to Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone, it's Ed Helms and I'm.
Saagar Enjeti
Cal Penn, and we are the hosts of Earsay, the Audible, and iHeart Audiobook Club.
Spencer Graves
This week on the podcast, I am talking to film and TV critic, radio and podcast host and Harry Potter superfan Rhianna Dillon to discuss Audible's full cast adaptation of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. What moments in this audiobook capture the feeling of the magical world best for you? Or just stood out the most.
Krystal Ball
I always loved reading about the Quidditch matches. And I think the audio really gets it because it just plunges you right into the stands. You have the crowd sounds like all around you is surround sound, especially if you're listening in headphones.
Spencer Graves
Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audio Book Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Saagar Enjeti
All right, son, time to put out this campfire.
Krystal Ball
Dad, we learned about this in school.
Spencer Graves
Oh, did you now?
Saagar Enjeti
Okay, what's first?
Krystal Ball
Smokey Bear said to first drown it.
Saagar Enjeti
With the bucket of water, then stir it with a shovel. Wow, you sound just like him. Then he said, if it's still warm, then do it again. Where can I learn all this? It's all on smokeybear.com with other wildfire prevention tips. Because only you can prevent wildfires brought.
Spencer Graves
To you by the USDA Forest Service, your state forester, and the ad Council.
Saagar Enjeti
Back here in the United States, you know, President Trump had said, 1, 1 protester death is too many in Iran. Maybe that's not the case here in the United States. Stephen Miller came out forcefully. They call him what, Prime Minister or whatever. Prime Minister Stephen Miller came out forcefully in defense of the absolute immunity of DHS officials. Let's roll. His aggressive defense of them to all ICE officers. You have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties, and anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to.
Spencer Graves
Stop you or tries to obstruct you.
Saagar Enjeti
Is committing a felony. You have immunity to perform your duties, and no one, no city official, no state official, no illegal alien, no leftist agitator or domestic insurrectionist can prevent you from fulfilling your legal obligations and duties. And the Department of Justice has made clear that if officials cross that line into obstruction, into criminal conspiracy against the United States or against ICE officers, then they will face justice. Okay, well, that is certainly one way to respond to the kind of national outrage at the killing of Renee Goode, which new polls show. Democrats obviously overwhelmingly believe it was an improper, illegal shooter. Independents overwhelmingly believe that. And only. I think. What was it? I think I saw two polls, but roughly 60% of Republicans said that it was appropriate. So that's. You got a majority, even a super majority of almost a super majority of Republicans, but still, only 60 is awfully low. If you're going to then come out this aggressively and say, ice agents, if you're watching this, you have complete immunity to do whatever you're doing out there in the streets.
Krystal Ball
Overall, it's been broken down into, like, roughly this is, again, it's an approximation, but you're seeing like a third, a third, A third of people who say absolutely not. Yes, it was supportive and people who are kind of up in the air and polls. But to Ryan's point, when you break that down, bipartisanship, independence, not great for the administration. Serious for the administration and for Republicans that are up in the midterms and obviously helpful to Democrats that are using this energy politically. But the politics aside, I do want to make a point because you and I and Crystal and Sager have disagreed on the circumstances of the good killing and people can go watch last Friday's show to see more of that. But even so, what Stephen Miller just said is arguably dangerous for the ICE agents themselves because he said absolute federal immunity and he said it with such gusto. It is technically correct.
Saagar Enjeti
I believe it to be true.
Krystal Ball
Well, it's technically correct because he said federal and they are currently in charge of the federal government, meaning that it is almost a zero percent chance.
Saagar Enjeti
Right. He'll pardon you, basically.
Krystal Ball
Right. States can prosecute in these cases. They are doing it in the Renee Goode case, in fact. And the federal government appears to be making that work harder and is intentionally not cooperating with the state investigation, but saying absolute federal immunity as though you are covered, which is the clear implication of what Stephen Miller just said. It's dangerous for reasons that you and I would agree on, which is that you have, you know, a lot of new ICE officers out in the streets with the bravado coming from the administration and actual threats, you are asking for danger. And secondly, dangerous, but then potentially as well, because people have this overconfidence that could be literally dangerous for protesters and the agents themselves by stoking the flames, and then could be legally dangerous for the officers who can be prosecuted by the states.
Saagar Enjeti
That's a very good point. And so when we have a decent sized law enforcement audience here at Breaking Points. And so if you're in that segment, and particularly if you work for ICE or cbp, take note of what Emily just said. You don't have state level immunity. Federal immunity is debatable, but the administration will probably pardon you even if by some chance you don't end up with that. And also, what federal prosecutor at this point is going to try to take up the case when it's so clear? When the administration is making it so clear, they're not interested in doing that. They're not prosecuting John Ross, not investigating him. Instead, they're investigating his wife, saying that she may have committed a whole bunch of felonies out at that scene. So, yeah, okay, maybe you're okay for the next several years federally. But Emily's point is key. The fact that he added that in. He's trying to play you. He's tricking you. He's trying to make you think that you have overall total immunity. You do not. There are states that will come after you and the statute of limitations on murder is the rest of your life. So bear that in mind and also then process that for a second and think, wait a minute, this person just lied to me basically to try to get me to carry out his agenda. He created this 3,000 person a day or whatever it is. Insane quota that could never be reached without violating the Constitution. Now he needs people to go out and break the law so that he can cash checks that he didn't have the balance to pay for when he first wrote them. And he's going to then hang me out to dry. He's going to lie to me to get me to be as aggressive as possible. And then when the pendulum swings back, I'm going to be the one that is left hanging out to dry.
Krystal Ball
And I actually do want to correct what I just said about the 30, 30, 30. When you look at polling, it's actually in multiple polls here, over 53% of people who say it was unjustified. So that's a, that's according to quinnipiac. There's a YouGov poll and then there's a. I think it's data for progress via Zetao that did a poll on this. And so those numbers for the administration, like, that's, I was misremembering. That's actually very like negatively for the administration to lean into this, which is what they've done. We see Stephen Miller out there tripling down.
Saagar Enjeti
Something like 75% of people say they've seen the video. So, like saturation.
Krystal Ball
J.D.
Saagar Enjeti
Vance can say whatever he wants about it. People have seen it.
Krystal Ball
Right?
Saagar Enjeti
So, yeah, so, yeah, it's wild that they're really leaning into this. Leaning in further, Donald Trump, you put this next element up on the screen. Donald Trump said, do the people of Minnesota really want to live in a community in which there are thousands of already convicted murderers, drug dealers and addicts, rapists, violent released and escaped prisoners, Escaped prisoners, what? Dangerous people from foreign mental institutions and insane asylums and all on and on and on. He finishes at the end. Fear not great. People of Minnesota. The day of reckoning and retribution is coming. And so he is surging more federal resources and federal troops kind of into, not military troops, but security services into Minnesota. And the videos that just continue to come out of there, the reporting on the ground, just continue to get to the place where, like, normies are, like, what is going on here? Like, you had this one, I don't know if you saw this one, where a woman is, she comes across a protest and she says to the cops, like, I'm disabled. I have a doctor's appointment right over here. I have a doctor's appointment. And there's some yelling and shouting. They open the door, they rip the disabled woman out of the car. Rather than just unbuckle her seatbelt, they come in with a box cutter and just like, slice the seatbelt, drop her on the ground, pick her up. Everybody's screaming. There's still the case of the guy who was picked up at the gas station and carried away unresponsive, who has not been heard from since. And the protests are going from morning until night. Looks like smoke grenades. It's just total chaos.
Krystal Ball
It's really frustrating because for me, two things can be true. And what we disagree on is that I vehemently oppose people obstructing ice. I also, though, vehemently oppose ICE encroaching on American civil liberties. I vehemently oppose. And that would be. I mean, we could have a longer conversation about whether ICE in and of itself is an encroachment on American civil liberties, but that's for another day. And I vehemently oppose the security theater. And it goes into, obviously very dangerous places. And that's why I'm genuinely not trying to deflect. But it's why, during the Biden administration, you and I talked about this several times. Like, you create a situation where Bill Milugian of Fox News posted these names of genuine convicted violent criminals, people who haven't been convicted of immigration crimes, but who have been convicted of violent crimes, who are in Minnesota right now because they came over the border during the Biden administration. He posted a full list of all of these different people. And that is a real thing. And it makes me furious at the Biden administration. The Trump administration is going to lose public support. They're calling Ryan right now to say who's calling me. But they're going to lose public support for any immigration enforcement, which is roughly what happened during their first term as well. Yeah, polling went in the other direction. Biden then over overreacted to the polling. Going against Trump on immigration basically opened up the border and didn't enforce it because they thought that was most politically viable. And it was a wild overcorrection.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, Trump took. Trump had the American people on his side. Not a huge majority, but he had a majority of the people on his side. When it came to immigration, he has completely lost it. And he's turning people against all of his immigration policy, all of it. And so instead of taking the billions of dollars that he added to immigration enforcement and hiring detectives and other officers to go and find these people who he says are escaped prisoners and criminals, dangerous people escaped from asylums, like, instead of going to find them, he's just doing this thing where they're going around saying papers please to like American citizens, like show us your id.
Krystal Ball
But that's why I get pissed.
Saagar Enjeti
Going to like Uber lines.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, but that's why I get pissed also at obstruction of ice. And even the people who have done some of the trainings have said, always comply. This is civil disobedience. Just comply with the officers, which I think is important. But even then, Jonathan Ross was dragged in June in the arrest of a convicted sex offender. Non citizen convicted sex offender. So.
Saagar Enjeti
Right. So those are the people there should be. The focus should be on American citizens do not have to give immigration authorities who are just wandering the street their papers. Like that is a. It's fourth Amendment right and a fifth Amendment right. Fundamental basic rights of a citizen in this country. If they say, sit papers please. No, you do. You do not have to give them. Now maybe you could say that we should all say, yes, sir, here's my papers.
Krystal Ball
Digital id. That's what they're doing in the uk, partially to crack down on the immigration that they let in. This is what Keir Starmer is doing right now.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And right. And so the right has been against the digital id. The right has been against the right has been for liberty. And now having them be on the side of the papers, please, folks, is crazy. And also what Miller wants to do is not what he ran on. Right. They ran on going after the criminals. Now it was pretty clear what they were actually really going to do, I think you could say. But this, like, we're going to find 3,000 people a day and get rid of them. That's not actually. And we're going to do that by going to Home Depot and going to Uber lines and raiding farms and hotels and construction sites. That's not what people voted for. And that matters because now you have lost the public and now the public is out blowing whistles in their face everywhere they go.
Krystal Ball
Let's talk about this next case, Ryan, of the agent. This is going to be. Before you were posting a bit about this. Why don't you tell us about what's happening here? This is also in, this is also in Minnesota, right? So we can go roll the video. You'll be able to see it on your screen.
Saagar Enjeti
So this, so this is, this is a 17 year old target employee who's an American citizen telling these ICE agents, including Bovino, to F off. And he's like walking away from them and they're walking after him. People say that they saw some evidence of him making contact with the ICE agents. I, I have, I've seen this a whole bunch of times. I've never seen it. This is, here's the ICE agent hitting him, throwing him down on the ground, putting his knee on his head. You then later, see, there he goes, you hear him say, who should we call? Like in another video from a Target employee's perspective, he says, call my mom, call my mom. He then shows up. So here he is, they dumped him miles away in a Walmart parking lot after they realized that he's a citizen. So he's bleeding, he's all messed up, he's clearly struggling. And DHS came out and said, this.
Krystal Ball
Individual, this is the quote from DHS, on January 12, this individual is arrested for assaulting federal law enforcement officers under 18 USC 111. Assaulting, resisting or impatient. Impeding federal officers.
Saagar Enjeti
Right. And he wasn't like he was picked up, he was brutalized and then he was dumped out like.
Krystal Ball
Well, legally they're gonna have to make a case based on impeding, but.
Saagar Enjeti
Okay, but they said they charged him, they didn't.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Where's the charge?
Krystal Ball
Well, that's what I'm saying. They're gonna have to rely on a very. Based on the video at least. Your point?
Saagar Enjeti
There's no evidence that they actually arrested him. They picked him up, dumped him. When did they arraign him? When did they take him to jail? When did they do the things that they're claiming they did? If he violated federal law, why was he dumped in a Walmart parking lot a couple hours later?
Krystal Ball
Well, I mean, we've seen cases like this. There have been cases where US Citizens.
Saagar Enjeti
Don'T you have to at least take them in if you're gonna charge them? ProPublica charge them in the car.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I would think so. ProPublica did a long rundown. What was this a couple of months ago? Now, on the cases that have involved U.S. citizens and as of then it was a little database basically where you could go through and check. And a lot of the cases, cases were people who genuinely had been. You could make a pretty obvious case that they were, quote, impeding or getting in the way, that type of thing. Not just, you know, swearing or cussing or whatever or illegally filming that sort of thing. On the other hand, there were at least a handful of cases that I found extremely disturbing at the time. We've covered many of them of US citizens who did get unduly detained or arrested or whatever it was. And that's what I think is really like the numbers are what they are. Not just because there was all of this polling over the last year showing people actually were pretty supportive of quote, mass deportations. Even like six months into the Trump administration. People were still fairly supportive of that.
Saagar Enjeti
It was gonna look like.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, well, no, but even as it was happening, people were fairly supportive of this idea that yes, there are people who are here in this country who are not violent criminals who may have to go. On the other hand, when you start seeing ICE with masks on doing this to US Citizens more than once, that's I think explains the numbers are where they are right now. We can roll here Bovina on Hannity. So he went on Hannity. He is obviously what is his position is like regional. He's a regional CBP commander. Yeah. So let's roll this clip of him on Hannity a couple nights ago.
Saagar Enjeti
Now, is that justified use of force? To me that it's not even a close call.
Spencer Graves
Sean.
Saagar Enjeti
We call that means intent and opportunity.
Spencer Graves
Did that individual have the intent?
Saagar Enjeti
Look at those minutes leading up to the shooting and we will see what.
Spencer Graves
I would consider some pretty important intent.
Saagar Enjeti
Did that individual have the opportunity?
Spencer Graves
Yes.
Saagar Enjeti
Did that individual take that opportunity? Yes.
Spencer Graves
A 4,000 pound missile is not something.
Saagar Enjeti
Anyone wants to face, especially in a.
Spencer Graves
Split second decision making process in a very already inhospitable environment. Hats off to that ICE agent. I'm glad he made it out alive.
Saagar Enjeti
I'm glad he's with his family.
Krystal Ball
So that was Bovino on Rene Goode, of course. And go ahead, Ryan.
Saagar Enjeti
I think it was Stephen Lockjaw with some vocal fry. Right. Doesn't it look like Lockjaw?
Krystal Ball
Except someone tweeted that he sounded like a Red Scare host.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, but looks like Lockjaw.
Krystal Ball
It is an unsettling combination.
Spencer Graves
It is Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app is a podcast designed for hunters and fishermen to enjoy success.
Ed Helms
I like the idea of like, hey, put me on a big deer, you know, hey, there's a big deer out here. He's doing this. Be looking for this deer. But also like love doing it on my own. I love going out there and saying, running my cameras. I love patterning the deer. I like showing up at the right time, checking the wind, knowing what stand I need to be in. And then whenever it all comes together and it happens, that's the most satisfying thing ever. So when you do it on your own, it's like, I then can hang my hat. But if I had somebody say, hey, pull up on these dots and catch them right here and you're going to win. And then when I go in, it's like, yeah, it's cool, I won the tournament. The ultimate goal is done. But it's like, dude, when you find them and you make them bite, that's the puzzle.
Spencer Graves
I love it. Listen to Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey everyone, it's Ed Helms.
Saagar Enjeti
And I'm Kalpen and we are the hosts of Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club.
Spencer Graves
This week on the podcast, I am talking to film and TV critic, radio and podcast host and Harry Potter super fan Rhianna Dillon to discuss Audible's full cast adaptation of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. What moments in this audiobook capture the feeling of the magical world best for you or just stood out the most?
Krystal Ball
I always loved reading about the Quidditch matches and I think the audio really gets it because it just plunges you right into the stands. You have the crowd sounds like all around you. It is surround sound, especially if you're listening in headphones.
Spencer Graves
Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Saagar Enjeti
Everyone needs to take care of their mental health, even running back Bijon Robinson. When I'm on the field and feeling.
Spencer Graves
The pressure, I usually just take a deep breath.
Saagar Enjeti
When I'm just breathing and seeing what's in front of me, everything just slows down. It just makes me feel great before I run the play.
Spencer Graves
Just like Bijan, we all need a.
Saagar Enjeti
Strong mental game on and off the field.
Spencer Graves
Make a game plan for your mental health at loveyourmindplaybook.org Love youe Mind Brought.
Saagar Enjeti
To you by the Huntsman Mental Health.
Spencer Graves
Foundation, the Arthur M. Blank Family foundation, and the ad consultants.
Krystal Ball
To use the word unsettling one more time, let's Go ahead and roll this clip of Joe Rogan, who had Rand Paul on for a very interesting edition of the Joe Rogan experience, himself expressing this sentiment of being unsettled about what he has seen from ice. And remember, obviously, Rand Paul is libertarian. He's Republican, member of Congress, but he comes from the libertarian branch of the Republican Party and the broader conservative movement. So questions about ICE weigh heavily on the libertarian mind always and have for a long time. How did Rand Paul respond to Rogan? Let's take a look.
Spencer Graves
You don't want militarized people in the streets just roaming around, snatching people up, many of which turn out to actually be U.S. citizens that just don't have their papers on them. Are we really gonna be the Gestapo? Where's your papers? Is that what we've come to? It's also very ugly to watch someone shoot a US Citizen, especially a woman, in the face, where it's like, I'm not. I'm not that guy. I don't know what he thought. And again, this is a guy who had almost been run over, but it just looked horrific to me. I mean, when people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was kind of turning the car away. I think you could make an argument.
Saagar Enjeti
When you're working right along the border.
Krystal Ball
Or at night with large groups that.
Spencer Graves
There'S a lawlessness to the cartels that.
Saagar Enjeti
Hiding the identities of ICE along the.
Krystal Ball
Border, it's a little harder to make the argument.
Saagar Enjeti
And I saw this image in a.
Krystal Ball
Courthouse in Chicago where it's a big.
Saagar Enjeti
Elevator and the ICE agents all have masks on and they're arresting people, and it's all women and children in a.
Spencer Graves
Big elevator in a courthouse.
Saagar Enjeti
It's like, really, I don't think you really need to be wearing a mask.
Spencer Graves
They're worried about being doxed. And, you know, I'm finding that happening.
Saagar Enjeti
But our local police have to do.
Spencer Graves
That, and they don't wear masks.
Saagar Enjeti
You see what I mean? The local police go to the courthouse to arrest somebody or the bright lights.
Krystal Ball
Of the city or during the day.
Spencer Graves
But again, the local police have to state their name and badge number. The local police have always been here.
Krystal Ball
Right.
Spencer Graves
The ICE element is completely new.
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
Spencer Graves
I'm saying, or at least at this.
Saagar Enjeti
Scale, I'm saying that for most of.
Tony Dokoupil
The regular arrests, you probably don't need.
Krystal Ball
To have them wearing masks. That's what I'm saying. So Rand Paul offered some defense of ice, but what you heard him saying in that clip was Right, right. As Rogan was talking about the optics of watching a woman be shot in the face, and I don' mean just the optics of that for the administration politically. But what that does viscerally to people to watch a woman be shot in the face, and that's where you're seeing this polling come from. We can put the next element up on the screen. This is a YouGov poll from January 9th through 12th. So that was conducted from last Friday to this Monday. So in the wake of what happened to Renee Goode, and you see a net abolishing ICE has received net positive support in this poll. So for support for abolishing, ICE is at 46%, opposition is at 43%. I would imagine that's in the margin of error. So either way, it's basically split. And again, Ryan, this is what we said earlier in the show, that's what happened in the first Trump administration. I mean, not at this level, of course, and immigration enforcement wasn't at this level, but the numbers were going exactly in this direction. And it's why Democrats hopped on politically, the abolish ICE train, and why people like AOC and other squad members were getting a lot of traction with the Abolish ICE movement at the time. And now the public is like really moving along with it.
Saagar Enjeti
Not according to Third Way, which is the kind of like centrist Democratic news organization. Bad timing for them for this memo that they put out. You can put this next element up. They said they implore Democrats do not use the term abolish ice. Quote, the impulse is emotional, the slogan is simple, but politically it is lethal. And we had Chris Van Hollen on the program Monday and asked him about this. He was sort of almost there, but he, what he was saying, you don't want to imply that some of the necessary functions that are carried out by ICE would, would also be abolished. And I don't think. And some people want that to be the case, but that's not what most people mean when they say abolish ice. When I say abolish ice, I mean it is a rogue, ungovernable agency. And when you have a government, you need everything in it to be responsive to the government and to the people. Like, you can't have rogue agencies. You can't. Like that's, that's antithetical to the notion of self government. And these guys were already rogue in 2019, 20, 20, 20. 50% of their officers have been hired in like the last year.
Krystal Ball
They're not rogue from this administration. I mean, they're very, very responsive.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, we'll see.
Krystal Ball
Duly elected president right now. That's.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, we'll see like if, yeah, we'll see what happens if they try to. You always think that, you always think that your attack dog is under control, that maybe they are. And that's a very good point.
Krystal Ball
I just mean right now.
Saagar Enjeti
Right? That's a very good point. I wonder if the administration wanted to change tactics if they get them under control. I don't know, maybe they could could a Democratic government. I highly doubt it.
Krystal Ball
I think that's a great point. But that's why again, like libertarians and we'll ask Thomas Massie about this later in the show. And if you want all these videos, make sure to subscribe to the channel. We've learned lately that if you haven't subscribed yet, it helps us a lot to subscribe on the channel itself. Not even a premium subscription. Just hit subscribe on the channel. So you see the videos in your feed or your podcast network because we do have Thomas Massie coming up later on today's show. And I'm very curious to get his take on this because Rand Paul, I don't know, I heard him kind of conflicted and I think a lot of people are conflicted, but not like this. This ice polling from YouGov that we just put up on the screen is pretty interesting because what you see among independents, so people who describe themselves as moderates are almost 45% in the strongly support or somewhat support category when it comes to abolishing ICE. Independents 47%. So independents and moderates, self described independents and moderates are almost at a 5050 split on supporter opposition to abolishing ICE.
Saagar Enjeti
And what's the Republican number?
Krystal Ball
The Republican number is only about so among Trump voters, only about 15% support.
Saagar Enjeti
That's a lot.
Krystal Ball
Among Republicans, 14%. It actually is. I was thinking that when I said.
Saagar Enjeti
That think about that 15% of Trump supporters, Trump voters want to abolish ICE.
Krystal Ball
Well, the reason that that a lot is because I mean first of all I'd like to see that number broken down regionally. But it's also important because on the margins that makes a big difference when Trump is already has a somewhat fragile coalition of people who basically need to think the left is worse in order to vote for Donald Trump in any given moment. And so that's a genuinely a, you know, it sounds like a small number. It is compared to the moderates and independents. I mean that's huge for the, for Republicans right now. But that's tough.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And ICE doesn't seem to have much to worry about in the near future. You put up B9. Democrats don't. There's been a real push by some Democrats to make the next funding fight around ICE funding and shut and shut either the government or shut DHS down. There's some hope that they could and Van Hollen was talking about this, some hope that they could pass other appropriations bills so that only DHS would be shut down. I think they're dreaming. I think they'll have to shut the entire government down. And according to this reporting, not a whole lot of appetite among Schumer and other leaders. We'll find out. We'll see for that kind of fight.
Spencer Graves
Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app is a podcast designed for hunters and fishermen to enjoy success.
Ed Helms
I like the idea of like, hey, put me on a big deer. You know, hey, there's a big deer out here. He's doing this. Be looking for this deer. But I also love doing it on my own. I love going out there and saying, running my cameras. I love patterning the deer. I like showing up at the right time, checking the wind, knowing what stand I need to be in. And then whenever it all comes together and it happens, that's the most satisfying thing ever. So when you do it on your own, it's like, I then can hang my hat. But if I had somebody say, hey, pull up on these dots and catch them right here and you're gonna win. And then when I go in, it's like, yeah, it's cool. I won the tournament. The ultimate goal is done. But it's like, dude, when you find them and you make them bite, that's the puzzle.
Spencer Graves
I love it. Listen to Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you go, get your podcast. Hey everyone, it's Ed Helms and I'm.
Saagar Enjeti
Cal Penn and we are the hosts of Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club.
Spencer Graves
This week on the podcast I am talking to film and TV critic, radio and podcast host and Harry Potter super fan Rihanna Dillon to discuss Audible's full cast adaptations of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. What moments in this audiobook capture the feeling of the magical world best for you or just stood out the most?
Krystal Ball
I always loved reading about the Quidditch matches and I think the audio really gets it because it just plunges you right into the stands. You have the crowd sounds like all around you is surround sound, especially if you're listening in headphones.
Spencer Graves
Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audio Book Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Saagar Enjeti
Everyone needs to take care of their.
Spencer Graves
Mental health, even running back Bijon Robinson.
Saagar Enjeti
When I'm on the field and feeling the pressure, I usually just take a deep breath. When I'm just breathing and seeing what's in front of me, everything just slows down. It just makes me feel great before I run the play.
Spencer Graves
Just like Bijan, we all need a.
Saagar Enjeti
Strong mental game on and off the field.
Spencer Graves
Make a game plan for your mental.
Saagar Enjeti
Health at loveyourmindplaybook.org Love your mind. Brought to you by the Huntsman Mental.
Spencer Graves
Health foundation, the Arthur M. Blank Family foundation, and the AD Council let's move.
Saagar Enjeti
On to Sudan, UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Krystal Ball
Let's do it.
Saagar Enjeti
So incredible kind of crack up between the Saudi and UAE coalition happening over the past several several days and weeks and accelerating in recent days. Start with C2 here. This is a story that we published over at Dropsite by Iona Craig that I would highly, highly recommend. I want to highlight two parts of her story. She writes here without the UAE's command structure and without air cover from their patrons in the flat desert landscape of eastern Yemen, the Southern Transition Council's collapse in the first week of January was as precipitous as its gains had been a month before. Further waves of Saudi airstrikes quickly routed STC forces. As one sec fighter put it in a video posted on social media, we went to Hudramat and Al Mara with a large force and high end equipment and returned on buses. That's about as dramatic a turnaround as you can imagine. What she's talking about here is that for the last 10 plus years, or going back more than 10 years ago, the UAE and Saudi Arabia were collectively fighting against the Houthis. They were a coalition against the Houthis with the United States supporting them against the Houthis. In recent years the UAE and Saudi forces became became rivals but had some sort of a detente with the Houthis being the main aggressor. Recently, Saudi Arabia has has clearly decided that the UAE has gotten way too aggressive in the region and in Africa and pushed back and bombed a shipment of arms that were coming in to the UAE's fighters, which has then which then caused the UAE forces to just basically completely unravel. What took them 10 years to build collapsed in 48 hours. An incredible Mohammed bin Salman moment then unfolded this Is the guy who mbz, the head of the UAE was warned, the guy that you're trying to put in the throne here in Saudi Arabia. And he effectively did put MBS in the throne is impulsive. You're not going to be able to control him. MBZ said, no, no problem. I got him. What has he done since? Well, he started out. He brought a bunch of super rich Saudis into the Ritz Carlton, tortured them, took their money. He then coaxes Khashoggi into Jamal Khashoggi into a consulate in Turkey, butchers him. He invites the Lebanese prime minister to Riyadh for a meeting, kidnaps him, forces him to resign. On video, you remember this several years.
Krystal Ball
Ago, if this man asks you to attend a meeting, my recommendation is not to go, don't go.
Saagar Enjeti
So the guy, that prime minister went back to Lebanon and took it back. He's like, I don't resign. I only resigned because he made me to. He made me so. Yes. So he invites. So MBS invited 50 plus leaders of the Southern Transition Council to come to Riyadh. It's going to be good. We'll talk about our differences. The head of it, Al Zubaydah, said he would come, did not get on the plane. Instead got on a boat and went across the Red Sea to Africa. Let's test his judgment. 50 plus of the other STC leaders went to Riyadh. We can put up C3. This is also from Iona Craig. She writes a delegation of more than 50 flew from Aden to the Saudi capital on January 7. Instead of joining the group, the group Adara Salzubaida instead secretly left by both to Somalia. Meanwhile, the delegation in Riyadh is believed to be being held incommunicado. STC officials in Aden say they have been unable to contact any of the group since they traveled. Dropsite News called several of the STC leaders held in Saudi Arabia but could not reach any of them. Family members of the delegates have similarly been unable to speak to the party since they left Yemen on January 7. An STC official still in Yemen told Dropsite that communication with the leadership in Riyadh had been cut off. And there are strong indications they are under immense pressure. To your point, if you get an invitation to Riyadh, do not go, do.
Krystal Ball
Not go, do not go.
Saagar Enjeti
What are you doing? Immense pressure. Is probably doing a lot of work there. Like, I can only imagine the immenseness of the pressure that they're currently under if we put up C4. This is from friend of the show Sami Hamdi this is the guy who actually was arrested in Sacramento or Northern California by the Trump administration.
Krystal Ball
We had him on. You can go check out that interview.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Held for a couple weeks. You want to do this one or.
Krystal Ball
Well, he posts here that MBZ is, quote, reeling from MBS's sweeping onslaught of his empire. Somalia cancels its contracts with the UAE and turfs MBZ's bases. So that is something that's happened and important to keep in mind here. Erdogan is close to establishing a defense pact with Riyadh and is conferring with the emphatically resurgent Crown Prince of Yemen on Yemen, Somalia, the Red Sea and Sudan. India is avoiding antagonizing Saudi Arabia and has strayed from the UAE by refusing to recognize Somaliland. And NBZ's STC proxy in Yemen has dissolved. Plus, MBZ, as Sami Hamdi puts it, quote, is struggling to find a single regional power to lend support or mediate or stop the unraveling of his empire. Ryan, the theory, and I saw this from actually Quincy Institute and Enel Shaleen, who we've had on before, just writing that the MBZ strategy is a chaos strategy. It is to foment chaos in the region rather than the preference of mbs, which is the exact opposite of that, to try and get everybody in lockstep with mbs, rather than having total chaos consume the countries in that area.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, I think, and I think that's. That's well said. And it's. The UAE and Israel are very tightly aligned at this point. And Israel has a very similar approach to the region, which is that you want to empower kind of proxy groups and separatists in every country that you can to then minimize the power of the central government of that country so that you then, by comparison, have more freedom to operate. Israel's goal, obviously, lock down its territory and expand where it can uae. And we can put up this map here so people can understand exactly what's going on here. So the UAE's goal. So if you look at the UAE, they're up here over in the Persian Gulf. So if you just study this map, everything will start to start to come into focus of like, exactly what they're doing. So look at southern Yemen there, Gulf of Aden. So the Houthis have most of Yemen, but what the UAE and the Saudis control is the part that's just along the Gulf of Aden and just along the Red Sea, right across from them there is Somaliland. So they're trying to break away this little piece of Somaliland and then if you look at Sudan, you've got ports all along the Red Sea there. If you look just to the west of Egypt, there is Libya, which the UAE is Now practically, the UAE's factions are practically in control of. And so what you see right in the middle of all that, Saudi Arabia, they feel like they have been, while they weren't paying any attention, completely encircled. Now, if you have a lot of oil that you're pulling out of the ground in Saudi Arabia, but you look around and every point that you have to just to ship that oil out is controlled by your rivals, the uae, the value of your oil has just gone way down. Like the part what the UAE is trying to do is control the flow of commodities and ports.
Krystal Ball
And I was going to say, meanwhile, if we put the map back up on the screen, one thing that you should take a look at here is just the size of Sudan, because Ryan mentioned commodities. Sudan is massive and it's a huge, huge proportion of the world's gold. So gold prices, on the other hand, have been up.
Saagar Enjeti
Surging.
Krystal Ball
Yes, have been surging. And so to your point about controlling commodities, the Sudanese element of that is not insignificant for NBZ at all.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And so where this matters in, so why this matters for Sudan is that the UAE is the main backer of what's called the rsf, which is the faction that is fighting there that is actually, that is kind of surging at the moment. And the UAE has the Saudi and Egypt kind of back the Sudanese armed forces, who are by no means angels. So this is not like some type of conflict between good and evil here. But the UAE has funneled extraordinarily advanced technology to the rsf, which the RSF has used to recently turn the tide in the war. Now the collapse of the UA's mini empire threatens the supply lines of the RSF. So I think we're likely to see some type of reversal if we don't. What matters here is the city of El Obeid. So in October, the city of El fasure, after a 18 month siege, and we covered this earlier 18 month siege, fell to the RSF. There were estimates of about 250,000 people in that city. Something like 150,000 of them remain unaccounted for and are presumed to be dead. That would be twice as many of the confirmed killed in Gaza, and that happening just in a matter of weeks to months. Hopefully the experts are wrong about that and maybe they snuck out somehow and went somewhere else. But that does not remotely appear to be the case, there appears to have been a massacre of just absolutely biblical proportions. The burning of bodies to cover it up, as well as the digging of extraordinary numbers of mass graves. El Obeid has people think maybe half a million people, but because of the conflict, there could be as many as up to a million people who have come to the surrounding area. It's surrounded on three sides by the rsf. You can still get out to the east, but if that city fell, there is real fear and forecasts by the people who've been following this that you could see another massacre of hundreds of thousands of people at the hands of the UAE's proxy forces here in Sudan.
Krystal Ball
It's so ugly and to your point. I mean, the reason we're doing this, because it's happening in the shadow of public attention.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And these are people who are alive who could be saved if the international community somehow can just put a stop to this. One way that it could be stopped is that the weapons flow stops. So if you put up C6, there is real evidence here. And here's another kind of useful map there of the UAE's encirclement of this region. This is from organization Critical Threats, they say. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have reportedly withdrawn overflight permissions for arms flights from Abu Dhabi to eastern Libya, while Somalia has banned Emirati military flights and expelled the UAE from Bosaso, a key transit hub. The disruption comes as RSF offensive end offensives intensify and as Saudi Arabia is reported to be brokering a $1.2 billion arms deal for Sudan's army. So there is hope that the RSF is going to lose access to the weapons that it needs to carry on what is just an absolute, like, cataclysmic slaughter of people. The problem, If Sudanese armed forces then gets this $1.2 billion, we could be looking at a slaughter in the reverse fashion as the revenge is carried out for what happened in El Fashur and elsewhere.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. And a lot of it's happening in Darfur, right?
Saagar Enjeti
Yes. Which we were paying attention to 20 years ago. Meanwhile, so the politics here, the US basically will not admit that the UAE is doing this. Here's a clip from recently of Representative Sarah Jacobs pressing the State Department to just acknowledge that it's actually the uae, our ally, that is doing this. And watch him kind of dance around the question of just saying the letters UAE play C7.
Krystal Ball
Do you agree that the UAE continues to provide material support to the rsf?
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you, Ranking Member Jacobs. I would again refer back to the Secretary's comments on the critical role of ending external support and our continued efforts to work with all actors on that front.
Krystal Ball
Okay. And what is the department doing to utilize its significant leverage in the form of arms sales, including a $1.4 billion sale of helicopter and F16 fighter jet parts that President Trump circumvented Congress on to push the UAE to stop its support and hopeful prevent another mass atrocity.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, thank you. As far as broader arms sales issues and those relationships, I'd have to refer to my colleagues either in our political military bureau or our Near Eastern affairs bureau. It's not something that I'm directly involved in for a sense of what this. What a conflict like this is like. We did want to play one footage with a little viewer discretion advised. It's not remotely gory or anything, but it is.
Krystal Ball
It's jarring.
Saagar Enjeti
It's. Jarring is. Yeah. Emily has a good word for it. It's jarring. We put up C1 here. So this is a. This is a group of RSF fighters who are getting trained. And you can see the kind of instructor. Wow, that happened even faster than I was ready for. You can see the instructor there talking to these recruits. And there's a drone overhead and just in the blink of an eye, the entire. The entire group, platoon, whatever, is just gone.
Krystal Ball
Nobody's alive.
Saagar Enjeti
Which raises all kinds of questions about the nature of war today and how you can move if both Saudi Arabia and the rsf, I mean both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are putting billions into this and sending drone technology across this kind of barren landscape. It's just going to be a robot fueled killing field. And it could. We talked about Angola. We got a wrap because we got Elizabeth Warren coming in a minute. We talked about last week about the Angolan civil war, which unfortunately you had to miss. But that was a case where even after the US and others and South Africa withdrew their support for Jonas of Imbi, so like rebellion, he just refused to put down his guns. There was even a UN negotiated US backed everything election and he got like 40 plus percent of the vote or something. He could have had like a bunch of members of parliament and like, could, like. He just refused, said no, and went back into the bush for another 10 years of war. And so I worry that, like, I'll have a lot more grays. You'll have some grays, and we'll be here 20 years from now still talking about this. If we don't. I don't know what.
Krystal Ball
Well, as Ryan mentioned, we're going to be doing this on Wednesdays in the near future just to provide updates on.
Saagar Enjeti
And we can talk about the famine conditions next week and the yeah, oh.
Krystal Ball
It'S dire on a week by week basis. So make sure to subscribe if you want those videos in your feed. And we will be heading into our interview with Elizabeth Warren now.
Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Spencer Graves
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Saagar Enjeti
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Krystal Ball
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Spencer Graves
A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers. But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught. The answers were there, hidden in plain sight. So why did it take so long to catch him? I'm Josh Zeman, and this is Monster Hunting the Long Island Serial Killer, the investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since the Son of Sam. Available now listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A man with down syndrome tries the impossible, the grand slam in turkey hunting. 4:53 hits. We're legal. Shooting light. And he gives us this one last chust.
Saagar Enjeti
Ow.
Spencer Graves
And he pitches off. And when he pitches off, he flies right into the gun barrel. I said to the cameraman, do you have him? He said, shoot him.
Saagar Enjeti
I said, justin, shoot.
Spencer Graves
You can download this episode and others from Lines and Tines with Spencer Graves on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
Saagar Enjeti
Guaranteed Human.
Episode: 1/14/26 – Trump Threatens Iran, Miller Says ICE Has Immunity, Rogan Rips ICE, Saudi UAE Hot War
Date: January 14, 2026
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti
This episode of Breaking Points delves into a volatile week in global and domestic affairs: the looming possibility of U.S. military action against Iran, unrest and propaganda war around Iranian protests, Trump’s shifting rhetoric and advisors, the political and ethical storm around ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) after the Renee Goode killing, and the eruption of open conflict between Saudi Arabia and the UAE with massive implications for Sudan and across Africa. The hosts pull apart government statements, media narratives, the difficulty of knowing facts on the ground, and shifting public opinion. Notable moments include exclusive interviews, analysis of polling, political infighting, and a rare moment of bipartisan skepticism towards heavy-handed law enforcement.
(03:47–25:54)
The Current Situation:
Trump’s CBS Interview (06:40–08:48):
“We will take very strong action if they do such a thing [hang protesters]. ... The end game is to win. I like winning.”
– Donald Trump, interviewed by Tony Dokoupil (08:00)
Media Credibility Crisis:
“That’s not a number you put in print and circulate. ... You could report that someone in Iran is trying to push a number that seems suspiciously high.”
– Saagar Enjeti & Krystal Ball (11:04–11:57)
Regime Change & Opposition Leadership:
Skepticism of U.S. and Israeli Sources:
“Iran International is extremely suspect. ... You’re not going to find a credible source.”
– Saagar Enjeti (17:14)
Dangers of Western Hype:
AIPAC’s Involvement:
Concluding Doubts:
“There’s no path, no theory of how those airstrikes are going to dislodge the regime...”
– Saagar Enjeti (24:38)
(29:16–57:41)
Stephen Miller Declares “Absolute Immunity” for ICE Agents (29:16–33:17):
“You have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties ... no city official, no state official, no illegal alien ... can prevent you from fulfilling your duties.”
– Stephen Miller (29:49)
Public Opinion Shift:
Escalating Incidents:
ICE Overreach and Civil Liberties:
Specific Minnesota Case (42:17–45:56):
Media on ICE: Joe Rogan & Rand Paul’s Concerns (50:13–51:45):
“Are we really gonna be the Gestapo? Where’s your papers? ... It’s ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. Citizen ... in the face.”
– Joe Rogan (50:13)
Abolish ICE Movement Gains Steam:
“When I say ‘abolish ICE,’ I mean it is a rogue, ungovernable agency.... You can’t have rogue agencies.”
– Saagar Enjeti (54:28)
“Independents and moderates are almost at a 50-50 split on support or opposition to abolishing ICE.”
– Krystal Ball (56:07)
(60:18–76:54)
Saudi Arabia vs. UAE:
MBZ (UAE) and MBS (Saudi) Power Struggle:
“If you get an invitation to Riyadh, do not go.”
– Krystal Ball (63:02)
Impact on Sudan and the Horn of Africa:
U.S. Denial and Arms Sales:
Modern Warfare:
| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|--------------| | Show start, intro to today’s topics | 02:16–03:47 | | Iran: Trump’s “red lines”, media spin | 03:47–11:57 | | Regime change, propaganda, AIPAC ads | 12:17–25:54 | | ICE immunity & the Renee Goode case | 29:16–35:36 | | ICE abuse, polling, civil liberties concerns | 35:36–51:00 | | Rogan/Paul on ICE militarization | 50:13–51:47 | | Polling: “Abolish ICE”, movement rise | 53:13–56:57 | | Saudi-UAE hot war, Yemen, Sudan | 60:18–76:54 |