Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar: Trump Steamrolls Bibi, Netanyahu Sabotages Gaza Deal
Release Date: January 16, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts

Introduction

In the January 16, 2025, episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, hosts Krystal Ball and Sagar Enjeti delve into the intricate dynamics surrounding the recent Gaza ceasefire deal. The episode titled "Trump Steamrolls Bibi, Netanyahu Sabotages Gaza Deal" offers a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical maneuvers involving the United States, Israel, and Palestinian factions. The discussion is further enriched by insights from esteemed guests Dr. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Shael Ben Ephraim, host of "Israel Explained" and "History in the Land of Israel."

Gaza Ceasefire Deal: Phases and Implications

Krystal Ball initiates the conversation with a full breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire deal, outlining its phases and the underlying political tensions.

Phase One: Immediate Cessation and Hostage Releases

• Duration: 42 days
• Key Actions:
  • Hamas to release 33 hostages, including women, children, and soldiers.
  • Israel to release 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier hostage.
  • Cessation of all fighting.
  • Israeli forces withdraw from populated areas, maintaining a perimeter around the Gaza Strip.
  • Return of displaced Palestinians and increased humanitarian aid.

Krystal emphasizes, "This phase is set to go into effect Sunday if Bibi Netanyahu doesn't blow up the deal." ([02:29])

Phase Two: Sustainable Calm

• Duration: 42 days following Phase One
• Key Actions:
  • Hamas to release remaining male hostages.
  • Negotiation for the exchange of deceased hostages.
  • Full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
  • Implementation of a reconstruction plan in Gaza.

Phase Three: Long-term Reconstruction and Governance

• Key Actions:
  • Exchange of bodies between Israeli and Palestinian fighters.
  • Reopening of border crossings for movement in and out of Gaza.
  • Establishment of governance structures for Gaza.

Krystal highlights the complexities, stating, "There are still major question marks in terms of how that will work and who will govern in Gaza." ([05:03])

US Political Dynamics: Trump's Role vs. Biden's Approach

The episode contrasts Donald Trump's strategic intervention with Joe Biden's previous attempts to secure a ceasefire.

Trump's Strategic Influence

• Mediation Efforts: Incoming US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz played a pivotal role in persuading Netanyahu to accept key compromises.
• Pressure Tactics: Trump applied pressure differently than the Biden administration, who Krystal and Sagar argue were ineffective.

Sagar remarks, "They [the Biden administration] say in this article from the Times of Israel... Witkoff has been in Doha for the past week to take part in those hostage negotiations as mediators try to secure a deal before Trump's January 20th inauguration." ([11:00])

Biden's Previous Failures

• Lack of Pressure: Biden's administration is criticized for not applying sufficient pressure on Israel, leading to prolonged conflict.
• Failed Negotiations: Efforts to secure a ceasefire under Biden stalled, resulting in continued carnage.

Krystal asserts, "They actually admit that they never applied any pressure whatsoever." ([06:00])

Israeli Domestic Politics: Netanyahu's Struggles

The Israeli political landscape is fraught with internal tensions that threaten the stability and implementation of the ceasefire deal.

Coalition Instability

• Key Players: Netanyahu relies heavily on hardline right-wing parties led by Betsalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.
• Pressure to Resume Conflict: These factions demand assurances that Israel can resume military actions if necessary, undermining the ceasefire's sustainability.

Shael Ben Ephraim explains, "Smotrich has been under so much pressure from his own party and from his own... constituency, that the deal is being frayed." ([44:50])

Potential Backtracking

• Netanyahu's Dual Pressures: Balancing demands from right-wing allies and Trump's diplomatic pressure creates a precarious situation.
• Risk of Breaking the Deal: Netanyahu may exploit any pretext of Hamas reneging to resume hostilities, as indicated by recent statements from his office.

Krystal notes, "His office put out a statement saying Hamas is reneging on the understandings and creating a last-minute crisis that is preventing an agreement." ([51:26])

Guest Insights: Dr. Trita Parsi and Shael Ben Ephraim

Dr. Trita Parsi's Analysis

Dr. Parsi commends the ceasefire as a necessary respite amidst prolonged conflict but remains skeptical about its sustainability without genuine commitment from leadership.

• Historical Context: He criticizes the Biden administration's approach, highlighting missed opportunities for earlier engagement.
• Future Implications: Dr. Parsi warns of a "multipolar world" where US influence is waning, necessitating a return to leveraging international law for geopolitical stability.

Notably, Dr. Parsi states, "If you center your policy on American interests, you're going to get a much better outcome than if you essentially abdicate your responsibility to the American people and defer to foreign leaders." ([34:45])

Shael Ben Ephraim's Perspective

Shael delves into the internal dynamics of the Netanyahu coalition and the potential outcomes for Israeli politics.

• Coalition Maneuvering: Netanyahu's efforts to expand his coalition to buffer against extremist parties have led to temporary stability but ongoing fragility.
• Long-term Survival: Shael posits that Netanyahu may survive the immediate crisis by securing concessions from Trump and reassembling his coalition, albeit with significant challenges.

Shael remarks, "His best chance for reelection might be to stay with Trump, stay with this deal, get as much as he can from Trump, improvise through the first stage, and hope that he can either get Hamas to break it in a way that can convince Trump." ([50:24])

Key Takeaways and Conclusions

• Fragility of Ceasefire: While the immediate ceasefire offers hope, its success hinges on Netanyahu's ability to maintain internal political support and Trump’s continued diplomatic backing.
• US Influence: Trump's hands-on approach contrasts sharply with Biden's perceived ineffectiveness, showcasing the impact of US leadership on Middle Eastern geopolitics.
• Israeli Political Unrest: Internal pressures within Israel may undermine the ceasefire, with hardline factions pushing for renewed conflict to assert their dominance.
• Strategic Recommendations: Krystal and Sagar advocate for recognizing and leveraging Trump's role in securing the deal, suggesting that public acknowledgment could reinforce the ceasefire's legitimacy.

Sagar advises, "If you guys want Trump to go in the direction... give him credit... Be like, thank you Donald Trump, for actually getting this done." ([25:49])

Notable Quotes

• Krystal Ball on Ceasefire Phases: "This phase is set to go into effect Sunday if Bibi Netanyahu doesn't blow up the deal." ([02:29])

• Sagar Enjeti on Biden's Failures: "They say, no, it's not happening, and then it won't happen." ([23:03])

• Dr. Trita Parsi on US Policy: "If you center your policy on American interests, you're going to get a much better outcome than if you essentially abdicate your responsibility to the American people and defer to foreign leaders." ([34:45])

• Shael Ben Ephraim on Netanyahu's Strategy: "His best chance for reelection might be to stay with Trump, stay with this deal, get as much as he can from Trump, improvise through the first stage..." ([50:24])

Final Thoughts

The episode underscores the precarious balance between diplomatic negotiations and internal political strife within Israel. While the ceasefire marks a significant step towards halting immediate violence, its long-term viability remains uncertain amidst shifting alliances and strategic interests. The insights from Dr. Parsi and Shael Ben Ephraim provide a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted challenges ahead, emphasizing the critical role of US leadership in shaping Middle Eastern stability.

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