Sagar (2:04)

All right, you've just been listening to the once and future President Donald Trump once again assuming office. That's right, the once and current president. Sagra, let me turn to you for your initial response. And you know, we've been sort of underscoring some of the contrast between this Trump presidency versus the first Trump presidency. And to me, a lot of those were evident in the, you know, the tone and the approach to this speech versus the 2016American carnage speech.

Krystal (2:32)

This was really a blend. I thought of the two speeches and it reflects the victory that Trump has now won as opposed to the underdog kind of surprise status that he had the first time. American carnage. And the themes of that speech were present, I would say, in about the first 10 to 12 minutes, where it was really a searing indictment of the Biden presidency, from foreign chaos to inflation to an overall indictment of, like, cultural liberalism and the left. So the way that the speech was structured was really interesting. It began both with the Golden Age of America starts right now, if we think about it almost like a college paper. The second paragraph then was one which laid out his theory of what went wrong in America, from immigration, chaos at the southern border, inflation, cultural liberalism. And then it came to his solutions. What was interesting, actually, was to hear many of the concrete proposals. That was the big thing that was very different from the first time around, the specific executive orders. This was also tonally, you know, this is State of the Union Trump. This is his most disciplined. He only went off script one or two times. There was a weaving in of some of the most famous moments in American history, from the call to put a man on the moon by John F. Kennedy to we will plant the Stars and stripes on the planet Mars. He's talked specifically, I have here in my notes, about many of the things that he ticked off from foreign chaos. But actually, what's really interesting to me about the speech was this was only about 36 some minutes, I think, here as an inaugural address, relatively average in the number of time, but spent significantly less time on foreign affairs than I thought. And that is interesting to me because it is clear from what I could see with Trump's speech that this was all about politics here at home. So if we think about some of the previous big speeches by American presidents, the inaugural address is very often, famously, in 2009, Barack Obama extends his hand into, or, sorry, his fist into a hand to the country of Iran, which led to the Iran deal. President Reagan spent huge portions of his speech speaking about the Soviet Union, about communism, similarly to George W. Bush. A lot of people will not remember, or, yeah, George H.W. bush, many people may not remember, but Bill Clinton spent a significant amount of time kind of thinking about the post Cold War era. This was a speech about America and its problems. And to the extent that the foreign affairs were weaved into it, it was about our spirit of national unity. And I will win to achieve the peacemaker unifier status. So I was really interested to see that tonally and just how strikingly different that is than a lot of inaugural addresses that are often given. But, yeah, overall, I would say it was A blend of the original 2016American carnage. We had the, you know, your wealth has been taken from you. A really an indictment of the bipartisan elite of the Biden presidency, but then bringing it all really to a source of cohesive unity in America, and that from that will flow prosperity both at home and abroad. So interesting for me to watch it, actually. I thought he did a pretty good job. Both he stuck to his overall text, which is difficult for him, tonally hit all of some of the most popular parts of his campaign promises, and also that have been polling, as we've seen in some recent stuff I'm sure we'll discuss in our shows going forward. So overall, this is a speech that very much fits in the spirit of American carnage, but represents him coming into his second term. I will note there was not calls for unity, quote, unquote, in terms of working with the Democrats. This was a defiant Trump, a popularly elected Trump. That I thought was interesting also to see from him very much in terms of the lessons that he's taken over the last four years linking his own persecution and his legal indictments from the Biden administration to how he was able to overcome that in the spirit of the American people, kind of fusing those two things. So very interesting speech, I thought, overall, and I think it's quite effective in terms of him delivering his message.

Sagar (7:10)

Emily, what were your thoughts?

Emily (7:11)

Well, I think what we're seeing a lot of his advisors or his operatives tweet in unison is golden age, golden age. He, whoever wrote that speech was talking about sunshine pouring all over the world. And I think there was a really intentional effort to blend, as Sager says, American carnage and optimism in a way that the original make America great again, never like that original catchphrase, was not always forward looking in terms of the tone that Trump leveraged it in. Reagan is very different than that. Reagan was much more forward looking whenever he talked about making America great again, which he literally used the same line that was from Reagan. And I think what Trump did was move a little bit more in that direction and try to use the aesthetic, conjure the aesthetic of sunniness, golden, sunny. We're hearing this over and over again. I think that's what they wanted to be. The number one takeaway from the speech was the tone of, like, literally, sunshine and gold.

Sagar (8:14)

Yeah, yeah. Well, and that's why I actually didn't think that it bore much of any resemblance to American carnage speech, because that one really went deep on not only painting a dark portrait of America, which, you know, many Americans agree with, and I also agree with painting that picture in a way that was an indictment of both party establishments. This is a much more partisan speech. But in addition, you know, the, the line in the speech that actually stood out the most to me as such an encapsulation of the difference between that speech and that moment and this moment is when he was talking about the LA fires and he says, many rich and powerful people's homes burned down and many of those rich and powerful people are with me here right now. So different from the theme of American carnage was I'm for the forgotten man and the forgotten women. And now the optics are I have all of my billionaire buddies here with me ready to run the government. If I could just. I'm just going to read a portion so people can recall the American Carnage speech and what the tone was. And to me, how different it was from this almost felt like, to your point, like a State of the Union. It was like a laundry list of organizations and that executive orders, blah, blah, blah. But he said in that speech, which really painted the vision, the sort of ideological orientation of Trumpism, at least, is the way it was sold to the public. We can talk about the differences between how it was sold and what it really was, but in any way it was more of a sort of like, let me lay out my vision, my view of the world. Whereas this was more of sort of like a laundry list of policy. But in that original speech, he said, for too long, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. The people who are sitting with him there on the dais in front of the Cabinet members, the Elon Musks and the Jeff Bezos and the Mark Zuckerbergs of the world, they're the people that he was indicting in that original American Carnage speech. And now they are giving him a million dollars or more for his inauguration. They're his best buddies, they're hanging out at mar a lago, etc. So to me, that was what was most noteworthy about that speech. And actually, Lee Fung, he had tweeted, over the next decade, Silicon Valley will replace blue and white collar workers with AI and outsource more jobs overseas. So the people that are standing around Trump, they're going to be there on a mission to do that. Truckers, designers, engineers, lawyers, and far more power will flow to the dozen tech overlords standing next to Trump at his inauguration. Ominous optics. And for me, that's sort of the biggest takeaway from this entire dynamic. And Lee made another great point, which was at Trump's rallies, he really went out of his way to have regular working people. I remember him going to McDonald's and driving the garbage truck, et cetera, et cetera. And now, and I think it was Stoler who said this, those people are literally out in the cold while the tech oligarchs are there warmly, you know, warmly snug in the embrace of the Capitol, standing there behind Donald Trump.

Krystal (11:40)

Yeah, it is. I mean, look, Crystal, what you're describing is the fundamental tension of the overall Trump movement, which is one both that is backed by an establishment consensus, most of it really freaked out by the popular vote victory mandate, that Donald Trump was then delivered on the backs of working people of the United States. If we think about the working class coalition that delivered the popular vote here to Donald Trump, the swing state victory, all seven. Exactly right. Those are the people. And I see all of those people walking about the city, as you said, bundled up. Some of them not bundled up too much. You guys didn't listen, but it's okay. That. Yeah, well, that's a whole other thing.

Sagar (12:19)

Which we'll get into that, by the way, in shorts for the inauguration of our president wore a suit for BB Netanyahu's visit.

Krystal (12:27)

Wow. Great, great call out, Crystal. I love that. Very. That is fantastic. Okay, I'm gonna, I'm banking that one up there. I'm gonna steal that one from you just a little bit more on the speech. What is so, you know, dynamics wise too, I have to say. We should never have these in the Capitol again. I hate the applause lines in terms of pausing, Just like a State of the Union inaugural addresses, both delivered outside with the magisterial view of the Capitol. Are those, like you said, Crystal, which focus on the masses and the hundreds of thousands of people. All of the Inaugural tickets, some 200,000 were given away. Right. So the expected crowd was hundreds of thousands of people to attend this inauguration because it is the people's president. When you keep it inside, just generally, I don't think it's great optics specifically for what you're saying. I do think it's a very important call out, the one that you just made. But I also think that this is a natural extension of Donald Trump becoming the Republican Party. Right. Because when you are the leader of the Republican Party, you can't indict the Republican Party. So if I'm looking through all of my notes, we just see Trump's conquering of the Republican Party and hence why it was much more, quote, unquote, partisan speech. So he began his first priority was immigration. Today I will declare a national emerging emergency at the southern border. Flowed from that was drill, baby, drill. Inflation and energy prices. What came after that was about Doge, then bringing back free speech to America, then DEI ending those policies, then eventually transitioning to the military. And of course, some classic Trump giveaways. We're taking back the Panama Canal. We are changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

Sagar (14:17)

Well, I think that part is actually worth dwelling on a little bit because we've talked about this a little bit on the show, and I do think what, you know, Russia invading Ukraine and getting away with it, but even more so Israel doing, committing a genocide in Gaza and getting away with it. This has really solidified a new era in foreign policy that Trump is seizing on. And so he is in the speech, really overtly announcing a new American imperialism. I mean, he even uses the term manifest Destiny.

Emily (14:51)

Yeah.

Sagar (14:52)

Goes on and on about seizing the Panama Canal. Right. Talks about renaming various things. And, you know, it really is quite assertive. And also, I would add into that, you know, as part of the immigration portion, he says he wants to declare the cartels foreign terrorist organizations. That'll be one of the original executive orders. That means that he can go to war with Mexico with zero congressional input, using the authorization for the use of military force that was put in place for the war on terror post 9 11. So again, another, like, quite imperialist, militaristic direction that he feels, you know, that he is obviously unafraid of embracing and putting out there as part of his project for, for this term in this administration. And one more thing before I get you guys both to weigh in on that saga. You mentioned how little there was on foreign, like Ukraine. I don't think you mentioned Ukraine.

Krystal (15:54)

No, he did not say the word.

Sagar (15:55)

There's just sort of an illusion of like, oh, the wars that wouldn't have happened if, if I had been there. There was one mention of the Gaza at least temporary cease fire deal that's in effect right now, which was all, we're happy the hostages are coming home, and that was it. So nothing broader about the end of the war, the end of the suffering of the none of it just a one liner about the hostages. And that was also. That was noteworthy to me as well.

Krystal (16:19)

Yeah, you're absolutely right. And, you know, it's interesting. So this is where the vagueness of Trump, he often weighs for himself. Right. So what he does is by not by just saying, I'm the peacemaker, then the conditions of peace itself, it's like, okay, well, we'll figure it out in time.

Emily (16:33)

Same partially because he's not a hardened ideolog. That's like, like, in some sense he is.

Sagar (16:38)

Right.

Emily (16:39)

Like on trade, he is a hardened ideal. Like, but there's something like, o, oh, the Panama Canal. Oh, I remember the Jimmy Carter thing. Yeah, let's get that. Let's get that shit back.

Krystal (16:47)

I mean, I do want to stick on this because it's actually important because at a big level. Let's zoom out. I've got a bunch of these books behind me. And when we think about when the Trump book is here and there's multiple other presidents and we're looking past 30, 40 years behind us, what we will see is a collapse, effectively, of much of the liberal world order under the Biden administration, both from Israel and from Ukraine. Afghanistan was also a significant part of that. We are now fully back in the era of great power competition. And so that's why invoking President McKinley and the Theodore Roosevelt era of the early 1900s brings us back spiritually in his speak of Manifest Destiny and others, back to that moment over 100 years ago where the United States is in open and vigorous competition with German, with the uk, the expansionist powers and the imperial powers of Europe. Now we have both China, Russia, there's various world orders and other things that are emerging. And it's actually a sign of that return of geopolitics that probably we could take the most from it. I mean, Donald Trump will be the very first American president in 75 years to declare an open policy of expansionism in his inaugural address. We really should consider that the phrase Manifest destiny and others has been uttered in terms of looking back to the founders. This is the first time in the post World War II era that an American president taking the oath of office openly announces an expansion both from the Panama Canal. He didn't mention Greenland, but obviously Mexico there, while phrasing it similarly in terms of the peacekeeper. How would all that work out? I have no idea, obviously, and there's some huge questions. But spiritually, that's very important. And it actually, it fuses well, I think, with a lot of the politics and that's why I often tell people, you know, when you read a book, so much of our politics rhymes with that era of we have huge questions about immigration hyphenation. What do we do about this with our society? We have big questions about our global do we want to be a global power? Do we want to just be a, you know, a nation of farmers? Tariffs is the same thing. That was a huge question. As the United States becomes rapidly industrializing and we became an exporting nation, how should we raise this? And then also the Gilded Age, and that's where we can also use that. And I think bring this full circle where we have this extraordinary separation of wealth and of workers. And so, you know, bringing all of those themes together, I just feel like, yes, look, nothing changes on a dime. But, you know, we've known a lot of this for quite sometime, but it does feel really, it hits home to me just it's very rare you get to live through a complete paradigm shift. And I think that this will be the beginning truly of that paradigm shift. And it raises a lot of really interesting questions about the United States, our role in the world, really who we are at home. We all get to decide that. And it was, it was, it was messy and it was brutal and there was a lot of arguments that happened then. And yeah, so that, that's, that's really like my big macro takeaway from the speec.

Emily (20:02)

Well, in soccer, one thing I think useful that frames it is we haven't mentioned he is now the oldest man to take the oath of office. Donald Trump is so obviously truly like at the time of him taking the oath of office, he is 78 years old. And that, I think is a huge fact given the amount of time we've poured into discussing it in the context of Joe Biden, but also in the context of why Donald Trump has this sense that Manifest Destiny is what will return America to pride. This is make America great again again, to return to Manifest Destiny, to the Monroe Doctrine, to totally owning the hemisphere and not having China come into Panama as he talked about, he said in a section on Panama, who did we, we didn't give it to China, we gave it to Panama. So now we're taking it back. And that is really interesting. The other thing, I'll add, Sagar, both of you, Crystal, I think said something really, really wise about how it's a tide shifting moment, it's a paradigm shifting moment, but there's still so much unsettled and in reference to the Lee Fong post that Crystal brought up. I just want to say we know we have all talked to a lot of the people who spent the last half, half decade of their work in the Republican Party and the quote, unquote, broader conservative movement focused on antitrust and on the concentration of power in the hands of the people who are now at that stage, who are now sitting behind Donald Trump in front of some of the cabinet secretaries. And I'm pessimistic just by nature and I think Donald Trump is making all of these signs that he is, you know, siding with, with Ellen and Bezos and he thinks that he has truly co opted them because the culture war has sort of loosened up. Republicans feel like, you know, they spent years saying the cultural problems like dei, whatever, are downstream of economic concentration, but now that they feel like they've won the culture war, they're not so much concerned about economic concentration for all of the reasons that they should be. Even though the culture stuff feels to them like it's soft. There are people going into this administration who do care. And I just want to say I think part of what will be settled is going to be concentrated in this boring, wonky policy battle, specifically over antitrust behind closed doors in the next several months. I think we'll get an idea of what's about to happen when it comes to how much power those oligarchs actually have versus the 30 something, 40 something year old staffers, law school graduates who are now roaming the halls.

Sagar (22:34)

Yeah, that's a good point. I think we probably know the answer to that if past experience of DC holds. Emily, I know you gotta jump. Thank you as always.

Krystal (22:43)

Thank you Emily.

Sagar (22:44)

Great insights. We love you and everybody. Emily will be on Counterpoints Wednesday like normal with Ryan. All good stuff. We'll see you then.

Emily (22:52)

See you guys.

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Sagar (24:25)

I think Emily makes a very important point there about the. I mean, you know, I'm cynical and I think most of the people on the right, not all, most on the right who postured as caring about concentration of wealth and power really only cared about the cultural domination and Wokeism and, you know, censorship that they perceived as going disproportionately against conservatives. And we're right about it that at times. And once that's done, and you could see this with like the Elon Musk takeover of Twitter, right? Well, now that is our billionaire that owns Twitter and it's censoring in the way that we want him to, then we're comfy with it. And I think Trump has sort of, you know, he's embraced that. And that's why there was a significant portion of the speech that was about Wokeism and DEI and in the military and all that sort of stuff. Censorship too, because, I mean, the censorship. He's full of shit on censorship, but whatever. But you know, those are pieces that the entire coalition can agree with. And all of the talk of, you know, Matt Gaetz is a LENA Conservative and J.D. vance is gonna be on board with, he likes Lina Khan, blah, blah, blah. Well, Lina Khan is out of the job now. Like, that's done, it's over. And I fully expect these guys to get what they effectively paid for. So, I mean, it's a two way street, right? It's beneficial for Trump. So in that way, he loves having them there, having bent the knee, all that sort of stuff. But they also are going to get quite a lot out of the deal. And, you know, got quite a lot on the Biden administration too. Like all of those men are wildly wealthier now than they were before the Biden administration. They're wildly wealthier now than they were even when, you know, Donald Trump won the election just a few months ago. This, to me is one of the central issues of our era. And that's why, you know, especially as crypto takes off and is one more vehicle for a massive upward transfer of wealth, AI takes off is another vehicle for a massive upward transfer of wealth. And the guys who have their hands on the controls are the beneficiaries of that, you know, massive heist from the American public and the global public too.

Krystal (26:40)

What you'll find interesting, Crystal, is the talk of the town right now from over the weekend is not just about antitrust. It really is actually about AI. And I'm glad that you brought that up because one of the under noticed stories of the last couple of days is that Sam Altman actually briefed Donald Trump's incoming advisors about an alleged breakthrough in ChatGPT technology to establish PhD level intelligence. Now, Sam Altman has tried to pour cold water on this, but you know, crypto is nothing compared to artificial intelligence. And then the leaps in that and that because all of those men that were behind Donald Trump, I guess, kind of with the exception of Elon, are deeply invested and have poured billion tens of billions into artificial intelligence.

Sagar (27:32)

Well, Elon, Elon's in that world too with grok. I mean, he's clearly making it quite the same. Well, and he started open AI with Sam Altman and is now trying to make his play to be a competitor to him. So I would put him in the same camp.

Krystal (27:45)

Yes, but it's not, it just to me, it's just not industrial as much. Like, look, Grok, it's fine, but like it's not chatgpt, it's not Claude, it's not perplexity. Right. It's not like one of these big players, not Google, it's not Facebook. All of those companies have gone so hard with AI that what they're the most fearful of is actually government policy around that. And that's why I think a lot of eyes should be on David Sachs, Sriram Krishna and others who are working with the White House under Michael Kratzios around the policies surrounding AI about questions in terms of open source and also in terms of what the standards will be in interpretation of data. Trump did not use the phrase AI, but he did make some allusions to technology. It could be, you know, in the way that we look back on the Clinton era, what's the one thing that sticks out? The Internet. Right. I was at the White House recently and There was photos of Clinton sending his very first email. And I think that that's very possible. You know, a photo or a, you know, a visual of Donald Trump chatting live or something with AI. And by the end of these four years, it could look totally different technologically in the way that 96 was an Internet revolution compared to 92. Focusing specifically on what those guys want. With the heavy level of investment from Amazon, Google and others, the potential questions about breakup is really important, I will say. Like I said, I alluded to. Steve Bannon is really been the person on the outside to take that dissonant view Crystal of these technology oligarchs against Elon, against Mark Zuckerberg. And look, there's there, as we also can see here, things change with Trump all the time. It only. You're only one tweet away, as Vivek can show us from being shunted to the gubernatorial race in Ohio. I don't think the same will apply to Elon per se, but Trump enjoys toying with Mark Zuckerberg and Bezos. I have no idea yet, you know, what that policy will look like and even if what the Department of Justice policy on antitrust, as you said, will be, because the explicit ones will be, and they have real binary choices to make. Do we pursue this, continue to pursue this case against Google or not? Do we continue to pursue this case against Facebook or not? Now, obviously, they are all praying that they don't. Many of them were started under the first Trump administration, and many of those lawyers are now back working under Donald Trump. Equally distrustful and hateful of those technology figures who were there and embraced by Trump. Now, Trump is a decider. We have no idea which way it will go in that direction, which is why I think there's still so many major open questions right now.

Sagar (30:30)

Yeah, I mean, I think the AI guys and the crypto guys, like, basically bought both parties and won like there was. So with regard to crypto, and these things are kind of tied together, some of the same cast of characters. But you're right, the AI is the bigger deal and it doesn't get talked about nearly enough. The amount of resources that all of these companies are, you know, flowing into AI, the amount of data centers that are being the amount of compute. I mean, and this is also massively impactful in terms of carbon emissions and that as well. But and the US Government being a major player in this and the Chinese government being a major player, there is an ongoing massive arms race in AI development. And effectively, I think that the people who want by and large unfettered AI development have won. I think they, I think Kamala was going to go in the same direction. This isn't even a partisan point, but you know, Trump with all of these guys behind them just really underscores that that's the era that we live in now. And the you're right about. I actually think perhaps the better comparison isn't to the 90s and the development of the Internet, it's more to the industrial revolution. Hey, my correct and how disruptive that is a very live possibility that the level of disruption that we saw in like an industrial revolution where you truly have people, you know, leaving the farm, surging the cities and all of this new like low paid, exploited, all that chaos that was generated by that shift to industrialization, that's what we're looking at in a blink of an eye, like in a much shorter time period. And what's disturbing to me is that there is no even semblance of a democratic process around that. Right. It's a handful of people who even know what's going on, even know what sorts of decisions are being made and the types of people who are techno optimists who by and large see the upside and aren't really weighing the downside risk. And that I think is, you know, to me as I'm watching these players and these characters and who Trump is listening to and all of that and you know, David Sachs and Mark Andreessen and Elon himself, like that's the part that I am maybe most concerned about in the Trump administration. And it's the battle that is playing out under the surface that gets almost no talk time from him or any of the other politicians. And it's deeply, it's deeply anti populist, it's deeply elite because these are truly a small group of like masters of the universe types who are making decisions that will have massive reverberating consequences for all of us. Just to give one more example, the Sam Altman thing is really important. And you know, for people who don't know the backs like he and elon, they started OpenAI together and they had a falling out and they're rivals and they sort of like hate each other. But then they're kind of like friend me, I don't know, whatever. Anyway, Sam was always a big Democratic giver. He also gave a million dollars and was at the Trump inauguration as well. So he wants his seat at the table too. But you know, in any case, the chat GPT development is really important, but there's also been research that has come out that has already shown ChatGPT and a bunch of these other LLMs engage in what's called scheming, where if you try to say, okay, well, now you're going to have a different goal, they will lie to you, they will sandbag, they will copy themselves onto a different server to try to protect themselves. Like, that's already the level that we're at. And I don't feel like anyone is really grappling with that. So that's one of the things that I'm very, you know, concerned about. Not just because it's Donald Trump in office, but because these guys have so much money and so much influence that they basically have already won the war and are going to get everything they want.

Krystal (34:22)

Right. And that's the point, right, is not only about, well, just like the Industrial Revolution, there was no conscious policy about it. We react to it after it already happens. And I think that's probably basically the case here. And that's where those fights inside of the admin and the theories about setting a baseline or even thinking about economic concentration and others are going to be the biggest questions for them to handle. And, you know, just kind of wrapping generally. Like my overall thoughts with the inauguration and with the set policies put forward, I think what I'm struck most is by how much the Republican Party has changed is not just to see J.D. vance, who was outsider, now the Vice President of the United States. After just two year stint in the United States Senate, he went from writing a book and hanging out with idiots like me to literally being the Vice President.

Sagar (35:12)

And now while being vetted by CNN and the New York Times as well.

Krystal (35:17)

No, you're not wrong. You're not wrong. And then he changed his, you know, completely. And now he has become a Trump warrior and the inheritor of. I think we'll see. Maybe Trump Jr. Wants it. Well, I'm sure that'll be a fight later, but probably the inheritor of the Trump coalition, he's the first, by the way. We've explicitly moved over Gen X, so thank God for that. We went straight from boomer to millennial and I think that's great. I hope that the Democrats don't choose. No, no, no. Yeah, we're millennials, Crystal. You have to stand up for our cohort. We're just as big as the boomers and we deserve power. Gen X, you suck. All you gave us was friends. Anyways, moving past that, what we see with the Republican Party is that there's no Jeff Flake. There's no John McCain. There's no Paul Ryan. This is Speaker Maga, Mike Johnson. This is John Thune, who, yes, has his more establishment ties. I watched an interview that he gave this morning, and it was totally in support of Donald Trump. Mitch McConnell is gone, then no votes are gone. And the unanimity which where they will be able to govern is going to be, in my opinion, their greatest strength and their greatest weakness. So when they hit it out of the park and they're going to be able to actually pass things, it will be good. However, all presidents, especially those in Trump's position, overreach, and they end up finding themselves in big problems. So, for example, George W. Bush comes into office. Let's be honest, it was because people were afraid of 9, 11 and Iraq. And he's like, you know what? The American people have given me a mandate to privatize Social Security. Insane. Goes for it. Disaster. Kristal is a huge part of why he lost a 2006 midterms. FDR, same thing, 1936. People think he's a king. He thinks he's a king, and he's like, I'm going to reform the Supreme Court. Boom. Total backlash towards that one. And Trump is very much in that position right now. So his ability, actually, just like those two presidents who had popular mandates and to then use that mandate, but instead misinterpret it, possibly, which most do, can often lead to big thermostatic changes in public opinion. And that's why, in my opinion, the most important thing for Trump and them is don't misread the mandate. And second is competence. The reason he lost the oval office in 2020 was the feeling of chaos with COVID He barely lost 40,000 votes, right? So this time around, if you have the same shit show feeling, it will be detrimental to Republican chances going forward into his overall popularity.

Sagar (37:57)

Well, because there's a dichotomy right now. And Ezra Klein actually wrote, I thought, a pretty good piece on this in the New York Times. You probably saw it as well, where, you know, on the one hand, it's like Trump won one of the most narrow popular vote victories in history. It was a point and a half, Right? So by historical standards, not a landslide. We're not talking about, you know, Reagan's reelect or anything like that. On the other hand, the vibe shift.

Krystal (38:22)

Yes.

Sagar (38:23)

Has been definitive, right? I mean, just look at those people sitting on the stage, right? All the young bros, like the, you know, the cultural figure, Carrie Underwood up there singing after he Gives his speech. The vibe shift has been incredibly significant. So you're left with this sense of an I can do anything, overwhelming mandate. And the Supreme Court has said, like, criminally, you can basically do anything, and there's no checks in place and nobody wants to stand up to him. Even the Democrats don't really want to stand up to him this time. So you've got, on the one hand, all of this power, and on the other hand, the country is still quite narrowly divided and it can go in the other direction very, very quickly. So, you know, it really is quite an fascinating political moment, you might say, in terms of, you know, what, what it's going to mean and how this is going to look like moving forward. And even on things like, you know, he thinks, and there's a lot of data to support this, that his immigration, you know, very, like, hardline immigration policy has been embraced by the public. And if you ask the public, like, we'll probably cover the polling tomorrow, mass deportation, they're like, yes, let's go. But then if you ask them more details about how that looks and you know, how that goes, there's a lot more trepidation about what that actually looks like in real life. When you are dealing with, not just theoretical, sure, get the bad guys out, but the reality of, like, people who are sympathetic or who have been here for a long time or deploying the military to the border and having this, you know, militarized situation, it gets a lot dicier. So there is a danger for Republicans of overreaching and overreading the mandate. One last thing, point I wanted to make about Biden and the corporate concentration and the antitrust and stuff like that. And it's, you know, it's both a compliment and a criticism of Joe Biden and that administration. There were things that were done that were genuinely good, right? Lena Khan, Jonathan Kanter, actually being serious about antitrust, actually being serious about labor. And, you know, the. Some of the things that were done at the National Labor Relations Board, those things were genuinely good. However, because you have a president in Joe Biden who is so aged and so unable to articulate or understand basic things, there is never an even an effort made to enlist the American public in a story of why those actions are important. So, you know, like, they successfully sued Google. There's now an open question of Google could be broken up. Like, that is monumental. Have you heard Joe Biden say anything about that until his last, his last speech? He's like, oh, I'm concerned about Oligar. He's like, well, what did you do? You know, I'm concerned about these tech, tech giants. It's like, okay, but any. And you know what, you have some credibility. You, your administration did do some things in that regard, but you ended up with the worst of all worlds because now all the tech billionaires hate you and are going to do everything they can to make sure you're out of office. And the public was never enlisted in this project and never understood what you were even doing, let alone how it could better their lives. And also, by the way, you can't just do that, which is a longer term project. You also have to deliver for people materially in the short term. So that's part of how these tech billionaires won such an overwhelming victory and why, if Kamala had been elected, I think the policies would have looked similar to what Trump is ultimately going to do here. But you know, Trump, with the embrace of all these guys, it's like very clear is this attempt to, you know, if you come at the king, you best not. Ms. Biden came at these kings and was not forceful enough, was not able to enlist the American public in this project, and now the project is basically dead.

Krystal (42:24)

Yeah, I mean, I could write an entire book about the failures of Joe Biden. I think that's a good point. I mean, basically one of the problems with having unpopular presidents for various reasons is that all of the other stuff attached to them dies as well. I know a lot of people who supported many things actually know a lot of evangelical Christians who will tell you that George W. Bush is the worst thing that ever happened to them because his disastrous war in Iraq sank many of the Christian right policies that they supported. Now, I disagree with them, but politically I think that they're correct. That's a huge reason. Exactly like you said. And then there's also a big question here. What does victory look like? I mean, the thing is Trump's cultural and vibe, victory, specifically over young guys, has been so extraordinary, so overwhelming, and so different than last time around. I'm still honestly, like, coming to grips with it. I still don't even know what it really means, what even victory is to them. All they care about is when he owns libs. Right. There is, though. There is a lot of people, though. It's not just vibe. There's a lot of people, though, who did vote on material grounds. There's a lot of people who do pay attention. And those people also, I think, will be the great swing voters of America. I think the BRO Coalition will always stick With Donald Trump, I mean, he is like this uber mentioned figure. If you think like philosophically and just like fight, fight, fight is going to endure with that generation, I think forever. In the same way, Reagan was a cultural icon more than a political figure to an entire generation of guys. But what you watch is how quickly that can dissipate and be destroyed under George H.W. bush. So victory for Reagan is not victory for the Republican Party and vice versa. I guess just thinking broadly here about Trump and about the first hundred days will be the ultimate test of all of these questions. It's not just going to be about technology, of course, which is very important. Immigration will be the big test for them as well. Will the public support endure and go and go along with. We have immigration raid scheduled for tomorrow in Chicago and elsewhere.

Sagar (44:24)

This will be, apparently they pulled back from Chicago after the details leaked, but I think the expectations are still there will be some significant immigration raid somewhere.

Krystal (44:33)

There will be an immigration raid somewhere in this country and there will be, you know, right along and media appearances and things like that which will dominate our news waves. Let's see, you know, we, I, I, look, I have beliefs, obviously. We've hashed it out a million times. I'm curious too. I'm like, let's see it. Let's see what happens. We've still got big question marks here about who's going to take over Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr. In terms of their confirmation hearings. And there could be fights about that. So I believe that these first hundred days will be a big test for thermostatic public opinion. And I have very close eye on the Democratic Party and then also on the Democratic voters. The resistance was a natural phenomenon last time. It doesn't exist right now. I'm curious to see if it can reform and what the general theory of opposition to Donald Trump and the various forms that it will take. So it's a crazy moment here in Washington. That's all I could really say.

Sagar (45:32)

Yeah, no, in terms of the resistance, the, the liberals are really, they really are in disarray. I think they feel, many feel betrayed by some of the elite, especially media figures that they trusted. I mean, you mentioned before, Sagar, Joe Biden being like, welcome home, Trump. I mean, they, Joe Biden may not have really believed he was a fascist and a democracy, but the liberal base really did and really does. So they feel betrayed on a lot of levels. And I was mentioning before, you know, I think part of why the Democratic Party feels less inclined to resist and fight. There's a variety of factors, but one of them is they're kind of comfy with this like oligarchy thing. They've been cozying up to these billionaires the same way you had the lead candidate for DNC chair Ken Martin be like, well, yeah, we're going to still raise money from the, our good billionaires. We're just going to stay away from the bad billionaires. Which is like, of course, his definition of a good billionaire is one that gives to the Democratic Party versus you know, maybe the country and the party should not be owned by billionaires whatsoever. Maybe that's ultimately the direction to go in. So I think that there's going to be a reckoning which will probably occur bits and starts over the next four years, but certainly in the next Democratic primary presidential contest that's really a fight for the, the soul in the direction of the, the Democratic Party. And you know, in terms of the, like, whether some similar resistance is going to arise. They're figuring out who they trust, what they believe, what view of politics makes sense because, you know, the, the version that was sold to them of like resist on the grounds of Russiagate and you know, the, the high minded democracy talk, which I don't personally disagree with the, you know, the threat that Donald Trump poses, but this was clearly inadequate to the task. The legal cases were clearly inadequate to the task. So they're kind of regrouping and figuring out, okay, well if that didn't work, what could work to, you know, to fight back against this political force that we're opposed to. So, Sagar, I don't know if you, I think we lost Sagar. So in any case, we were coming to wrap here in any way. But in any case, thank you guys so much for watching us on this live stream today as we watch President Donald Trump retake the Oval Office, what extraordinary times that we live in. It's going to be very interesting. Sagar and I are going to be back to cover. We're going to do another live stream tomorrow just because the news is coming in so fast and furious. So we want to make sure that we're as current as we possibly can covering all of this raft of executive orders that are going to be issued both today and tomorrow. So we'll be doing that live show again for you tomorrow just so we can make sure that we are on top of all of the news. But we appreciate you guys and it's certainly going to be an interesting four years. See you soon.

Brandon (48:45)

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Krystal (49:38)

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