12/10/25: Josh Shapiro War On Kamala, Newsom Dodges AIPAC Questions, Corporate Lobbyist Vs The Rich

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: December 10, 2025 – "Josh Shapiro War On Kamala, Newsom Dodges AIPAC Questions, Corporate Lobbyist Vs The Rich"
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Ryan Grim (sitting in for Saagar)
Guest: Sam Godaldig (Republican lobbyist)
Date: December 10, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into three key topics dominating U.S. political discourse as 2025 closes:

1. Kamala Harris’s 2028 ambitions and the backlash from establishment voices like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
2. Gavin Newsom’s careful sidestepping of AIPAC lobbying questions—and the broader shifting politics around Israel
3. “Class Dismissed” and the political realignment’s impact on how wealth, class, and race are perceived on Capitol Hill, with insights from Republican corporate lobbyist Sam Godaldig

The hosts offer unfiltered perspectives from both the left and right, mixing snappy banter, fact-checking, and a willingness to scrutinize the new power realignments in D.C.

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Segment 1: Kamala Harris—A 2028 “Historic Figure” & The Shapiro Backlash

(Start: 02:17)

Key Discussion Points

• Kamala Harris’s Media Profiles: Recent prominent coverage in The New York Times and The Atlantic signals her ongoing presidential ambitions and campaign repositioning.
• Book Sales and Public Interest: The hosts admit they underestimated Harris’ memoir, which reportedly sold 600,000 copies—a top seller for the year. Krystal speculates much of this could be from corporate bulk buys, but concedes public interest appears substantial.
• Shapiro’s Candid Critique: The Atlantic profile of Josh Shapiro includes blunt comments he made about Harris' narratives, sparking debate.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Kamala’s self-assessment:

  • "There will be a marble bust of me in Congress. I am a historic figure like any vice president of the United States ever was."
    (Krystal Ball quoting Harris, 02:27)

• Josh Shapiro on Harris (04:34):

  • "I mean, she's trying to sell books and cover her ass. Sorry."
  • "She's trying to sell books, period. What were you trying to signal in that moment, sir?" – Response to Simone Sanders’ question.

• Ownership of words (04:58, Sam Godaldig reading Shapiro quote):

  • "There's no parsing. Look, I stand by what I said... The words are mine and I stand by them."

• Hosts’ Take:

  • Ryan Grim (05:32): "It’s pretty funny. So, yeah, I mean, he's like, look, I said what I said."
  • Krystal: "Josh Shapiro, love him or hate him, feels a lot more like the future of the Democratic Party than Kamala Harris does." (08:55)

Humorous Aside

• The hosts riff on obscure vice presidents, discussing how Harris will join their ranks in Capitol statuary:
  • “These are the esteemed ranks of men Kamala Harris will join with her bust in the Capitol.” (Krystal, 08:14)

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Segment 2: Gavin Newsom, AIPAC, and the New Litmus Test

(Start: 09:12)

Key Discussion Points

• Gavin Newsom Questioned on AIPAC: Newsom claims never to have accepted AIPAC money, grouping it with tobacco and oil.
• Parsing Newsom’s Language: The hosts dissect whether Newsom has actually committed to refusing AIPAC money in the future or left himself an out.
• Context: Democratic candidates are facing increased grassroots pressure to reject support from pro-Israel lobbies, reflecting shifting party dynamics.

Notable Quotes & Analysis

• Newsom’s ambiguity (11:39, paraphrased):

  • Ryan: "Notice the change in tense... He said, 'I don't take tobacco money or oil money, and I've never taken AIPAC money.' Not that he won't take it in the future."
  • Krystal: “It's slick in the like—did he get you?—a legalistic sense... sometimes you have to see the transcript.”

• Potential for Change (13:00):

  • Ryan: "If the leading establishment candidate for the Democratic nomination just straight up said 'I'm not taking AIPAC money', that would actually be a seismic shift."

• Relevance for Democratic primaries: Upcoming Texas primary between Jasmine Crockett and Tallarico will test the salience of these litmus-test questions.

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Segment 3: “Class Dismissed”—The Corporate Lobbyist’s View on Class Realignment

(Start: 17:25)

Key Discussion Points

• Introducing Sam Godaldig: Decades-long lobbyist who’s authored “Class Dismissed”, documenting elite bias toward wealthy districts and representatives in Congress.
• Class & Representation in D.C.:
  • Lobbyists and D.C. elites unconsciously valorize members from wealthier (often whiter) districts as “reasonable” and dismiss those from poorer (often nonwhite) districts as “problems.”
  • Structural inequalities: Poorer districts see worse health, shorter life spans, higher military service, and less access to influence.
• Quantitative Shifts:
  • Of the 30 wealthiest congressional districts: 23 are Democratic, 7 Republican.
    (Krystal Ball, 22:14)
  • The 30 poorest: 18 Democratic (almost all Black or Hispanic Caucus), 12 Republican (mainly white).

Notable Quotes & Analysis

• On K Street/classism (18:25):

  • Sam: "You realize that members that represent wealthier congressional districts have the best reputations in DC... there’s this unconscious bias... and after 20 years you start, like, holy shit, everyone here is a classist."

• On populism and realignment (23:12):

  • Sam: "The Republican rank and file... represents constituencies that have had a really tough go of it. Those voters... are not as reflexively, ideologically pro-business as the party was... Politics has evolved."

• On internal bias (34:59):

  • Krystal: "...there’s populism, whether it’s Democratic populism or Republican populism. There's a class-based populism that's emerged as a pattern, as a trend."
  • Sam: "Some of this stuff makes sense, but it has to break a frame of how you were raised, how you were... what situation you grew up in."

• On lessons for corporate clients (37:21):

  • Sam: "If you show them the path to success, whatever it might be, they’ll get there... But again... most people don't have that luxury where they can pop into a congressional office and get a real taste of America…"

Memorable Exchanges

• On shifting nostalgia (oligarchs vs. corporate dominance):
  • Ryan: "Compared to the oligarchs that are now kind of the dominant power structure in the U.S., I'm almost, like, wistful for the time of the corporate capture of America." (37:41)
  • Krystal: "Wistful for the Chamber of Commerce." (37:43)
  • Sam: "Yeah, it's careful what you wish for. That happens in Washington a lot." (37:46)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Kamala Harris’s Media Moment & Shapiro Clash: 02:17 – 09:12
• Gavin Newsom & AIPAC: 09:12 – 15:07
• "Class Dismissed" & the New Political Geography: 17:25 – 38:26

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Final Thoughts

This episode of Breaking Points exposes the ongoing realignment of American partisan politics around class and wealth, highlighting the simultaneous divides and overlaps between race, party, and elite perception. The debate over AIPAC money and scrutiny of establishment figures like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom show both a generational and ideological shift, with growing demand for authenticity and clarity. The lobbyist’s perspective on class divides suggests that the most significant battle in U.S. politics might now be within, not between, America's parties.

The hosts maintain their signature mix of skepticism, humor, and candor, taking aim at both sides of the aisle and the D.C. establishment.

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Listen to the episode on BreakingPoints.com
For the full “Class Dismissed” report, visit CGCN’s website.

Transcript

[Sophie Cunningham]

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[Sam Godaldig]

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[Ryan Grim]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Ryan Grim]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

I O this is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or osa, in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don't sleep on osa.com this information is provided by Lilly, A Medicine company.

[Sam Godaldig]

Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.

[Krystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive.

[Sophie Cunningham]

Role in this election and we are.

[Krystal Ball]

So excited about what that means for.

[Sophie Cunningham]

The future of this show.

[Sam Godaldig]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

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[Sam Godaldig]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see [e-mail].

[Krystal Ball]

Kamala Harris seems to still be set. Oh yeah, running for president again. Still someday. The New York Times had a very, very splashy profile of her. Let's put up D2 on the screen. Actually, all kinds of interesting stuff in this profile, but her profile recently in the Atlantic caused some trouble. We're going to talk about that in a bit. First in this New York Times piece, Kamala Harris seems to be pretty eager to run again. She made all kinds of news for a particular quote which where she told Shane Goldmacher, I understand the focus on 2028 and all of that, but there will be a marble bust of me in Congress. I am a historic figure like any vice president of the United States ever was. Goldmacher followed Harris around to different book tour stops and really does some, some, I don't know, does her some favors in this piece by making it sound as though everywhere she went, everyone was clamoring to see Kamala Harris. Young black women in particular, Goldmacher reports were delighted to see Kamala Harris are big fans of Kamala Harris. I'm just skeptical that that's any significant portion of the country in terms of the numbers. But she's getting in trouble. Her profile with the Atlantic, she. I'm sorry, the Josh Shapiro profile in the Atlantic saw him responding to something in her book 107 Days, which I might have to eat crow on because I was like, this book's not going to sell anything.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, yeah, we both were wrong about that.

[Krystal Ball]

Compared to what books used to sell didn't sell that many. But 600,000 copies, according to the Times profile, makes it like the bestselling memoir of the year. Some of that could be big corporations having Kamala come speak and buying books, but it's still a big lot of books. Yeah, people, people. Maybe people are clamoring for Kamala Harris. Right. And we were wrong the whole time. Let's play this clip, though, of Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, responding. Little fun 2028 preview here to Simone Sanders of En Mass. Now, I need to correct myself here, asking him if he really said, if he really called some of Harris claims bullshit. Here's a quote, and you are describing.

[Sophie Cunningham]

Former Vice President Kamala Harris.

[Krystal Ball]

Here.

[Sophie Cunningham]

It says, I mean, she's trying to sell books and cover her ass. Sorry. With standards, Shapiro snapped. I shouldn't say cover her word. I shouldn't say on standards. I think that's not appropriate, Shapiro said. His tone was suddenly collected. She's trying to sell books, period. What were you trying to signal in that moment, sir? You want to parse this out for us?

[Sam Godaldig]

There's no parsing. Look, I stand by what I said. I think the way in which the author described my emotion, frankly, was not accurate. But the words are mine and I stand by them. I think what was relayed to me by that author that the vice president had written about me just simply wasn't true. And, you know, I, I think the vice president. I had very and continue to have very candid conversations.

[Ryan Grim]

And I think the way in which it was articulated to me, what was said was.

[Sam Godaldig]

Was certainly not accurate.

[Krystal Ball]

Shapiro owns it. What do you think, Graham?

[Ryan Grim]

It's pretty funny. So, yeah, I mean, he's like, look, I said what I said.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And, yeah, she was doing a little cya. Like, I don't think anybody is going to disagree with that. On the point of Kamala Harris being a historical figure, I was just looking up some of the other historical figures that she'll join.

[Krystal Ball]

I see Wikipedia up on your laptop.

[Ryan Grim]

Do you watch Miracle on 34th street every year?

[Krystal Ball]

Not every year, no.

[Ryan Grim]

I just learned something right now. One of the iconic scenes in Miracle on 34th street turns out to be incorrect. When Santa is doing the wellness check, like the cognitive test that Donald Trump famously aced. Remember, they're giving him the psychiatric evaluation and they ask him who is the.

Vice president under John Quincy Adams? Because they're trying to get him to fail. And he says, Daniel D. Tompkins. It's his. One of this classic scene. Turns out that's not true. And I just realized that right now, just now, which actually I should have known because Quincy Adams Calhoun was his vice president. It looks like what happened is this is before Google and Wikipedia. And so The Miracle on 34th street writers said, who was the sixth vice president, and the sixth vice president was Daniel D. Tompkins, sixth president with Quincy Adams.

[Krystal Ball]

Sure.

[Ryan Grim]

So they were like, oh, they must have been together.

[Krystal Ball]

They put it in ChatGPT.

[Ryan Grim]

They didn't have a book on hand that they could look for. They just had a chart or something of who this. Or maybe they just sat around and who knows the six.

[Krystal Ball]

Anyway, maybe it's a deep joke for people like you.

[Ryan Grim]

Maybe it is a deep joke. Wow, that is.

That is wild. It might be. There's a little Easter egg in Miracle. 34th Street.

[Krystal Ball]

Ryan Grimm just discovered this.

[Ryan Grim]

And maybe this is a widely known thing among Miracle and 34th street heads. But anyway, so Daniel D. Tompkins, Martin Van Buren, he became president. Richard Mentor Johnson, Vice president. George Dallas, Millard Fillmore.

[Krystal Ball]

He's a classic.

[Ryan Grim]

Billy King, John Breckenridge, Hannibal Hamlin.

[Krystal Ball]

This is fun.

[Ryan Grim]

Abraham Lincoln's vice president, Skyler Colfax also has a bust in the Capitol, as does Henry Wilson, William Wheeler, Rutherford B. Hayes, vice president.

[Krystal Ball]

There you go. Kamala Harris. What more could you ask?

[Ryan Grim]

Chester Arthur Garfield, he became president.

[Krystal Ball]

Are you watching the new James Garfield series on Netflix? It's fantastic.

[Ryan Grim]

I didn't even know there was one. I'M very excited for that.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes. You'll love it.

[Ryan Grim]

Garrett Hobart.

[Krystal Ball]

These are the esteemed ranks of men Kamala Harris will join with her bust in the Capitol.

[Ryan Grim]

Maybe she'll be right next to Garrett Hobart.

[Krystal Ball]

She might. And that again. What more could you ask for?

[Ryan Grim]

Or maybe Chuck Fairbanks.

[Krystal Ball]

Maybe Chuck Fairbanks.

[Ryan Grim]

Jim Sherman. So do you, Tom Marshall. I know a lot of history. I got like half these people. I'm like, Wikipedia could be totally lying to me.

[Krystal Ball]

It seems so. Yeah. That's true. We could have just done a lot of fake news.

[Ryan Grim]

Charles Dawes.

[Krystal Ball]

It seems so obvious that Calvin Coolidge.

[Ryan Grim]

Is vice president for. Those are not up on there.

[Krystal Ball]

It's like what we're going to be saying about that was Joe Biden's vice president. You know, 200 years from now, someone's going to be explaining that to someone. Kamala Harris. That was Joe Biden's vice president.

[Ryan Grim]

They'll be failing to pronounce it accurately.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, but Josh Shapiro, love him or hate him, feels a lot more like the future of the Democratic Party than Kamala Harris does.

[Ryan Grim]

And also the past, which is also.

[Krystal Ball]

Impressive because he's Obama. Right. Same cadence. Should we move on to Gavin Newsom?

[Ryan Grim]

I think we might as well.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's do it. All right, so, Ryan, Gavin Newsom got a question about his relationship with aipac. Let's go ahead. This is from Jack Coccurella. Do you know who Jack Coccurella is? Mm. Mm. I don't either. He follows me, so maybe he watches. Okay. Shout out to you, Jack. Good question. Let's roll the clip.

[Ryan Grim]

A little bit ago, you did an interview, higher learning. And the question of. Well, the question of AIPAC came up. Oh, yeah. And it wasn't really necessarily a question of aipac. It was just a random. And thought about aipac, which I've never received any money from aipac. I was sort of curious, kind of raised aipac, dmfi, the Israel lobby at large. This has become a big conversation. Someone like myself, and I think at this point, a broad majority of Democrats are saying, we don't want candidates who are taking money from aipac. We don't want candidates who are beholden to the Israel lobby. When you look at what you were able to accomplish with the groundswell of support financially from people who said, I want to back this. I want to back fighters. I want to back people who are independent of an establishment. How do you think about AIPAC now? And maybe someone like Seth Moulton who said, I want to return this money, I'm not taking it anymore. How do you think that AIPAC should be involved or shouldn't be involved? Well, they've never been involved with me. I've never received a dollar from them in my entire political career. So that, that's sort of absolute. So I've had opinion on that going back decades now. I don't take, you know, tobacco money, oil money. I've never taken APEC money. I mean, there's, there's certain absolutes that are the lines that have been drawn for decades for me, and those will continue and to the extent they need to evolve because of the devolution of certain interests, and we're experiencing that in real time along the lines of what we've been talking, perhaps that will even grow. But the small dollar is become just the lifeblood for me.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay, Ryan, Sign of the times for sure. We can also put this next element up on the screen. Marjorie Taylor Greene, let's run this. Yeah, this is the Marjorie Taylor Greene with the track APAC graphic saying, I am America First. Thank you for your attention to this matter. It shows her taking $0 from a pack and Trump taking. What is that, 230 million. Upwards of 20. $230 million from APAC. So Gavin Newsom has landed on this answer. What does that tell us, Ryan?

[Ryan Grim]

And what was the answer that he might in the future, that he's never taken AIPAC money and he might not take it going forward? Is that the.

[Krystal Ball]

He said this is a line he has drawn and he will continue not to take money from aipac.

[Ryan Grim]

I thought he was saying the line that he drew was on tobacco and that he might draw a line.

[Krystal Ball]

That's how you interpret it?

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. In the future, if he feels that that's necessary. Should we run it again? If you're watching this, you're in luck. You can just scroll back and listen to go listen to him again. I thought he left himself a little bit of wiggle room.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, that wouldn't be out of the question for Gavin Newsom. He said, I don't take tobacco money, oil money, and I've never taken APAC money.

[Ryan Grim]

Notice the change in tense, right?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Don't take this. I, I don't take that, and I've never taken that.

[Krystal Ball]

And to your point, here's the next sentence. There are certain absolutes that are the lines that have been drawn for decades. Because of the passive tense.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And then he says, and it might, in the future, that line might have to change to include aipac. God, this guy's slick.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, he is.

[Ryan Grim]

So yes, what he is saying is that he's never taken it before.

But he doesn't have a policy against taking it yet he does have a policy against taking tobacco money and this other stuff. But in the future if he's under enough pressure he might draw a policy that says I will not take it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

Which would actually genuinely be a remarkable political development. If the like a leading like establishment candidate for the Democratic nomination just straight up said I'm not taking AIPAC money, that would actually be a seismic shift. So the fact that he's like leaving open the door for it even and trying to make you. And I think that he said it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Ryan Grim]

He almost got us.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, it's slick in the like. Did he get you a legalistic sense? Like how the language is slick? It's not slick in a sense that I think a lot of people see that and they're like just say no, just say no.

[Ryan Grim]

But let's do a survey in the comments like did he get you? Did you think that he said he was not gonna take AIPAC money?

[Krystal Ball]

You always gotta see the transcript. Sometimes you have to see that to be like what's he doing here? And we'll also see how this plays out. We talked earlier in the show about the Texas Democratic Senate primary. I'm very curious to see how the AIPAC questions play out given Jasmine Crockett and Tallarico both. Tallarico has an existing relationship with Miriam Adelson and said basically about gambling by the way, which is another thing that's.

[Ryan Grim]

Funny is that I took Miriam Adelson money to support her gambling empire, not her.

[Krystal Ball]

And yeah. And also by the way I am the evangelical Christian, which is true in this race, which is insane. Another reason.

[Ryan Grim]

And he did vote to support the gambling stuff. So like.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

That it all checks out.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, a little transactional there. But yeah, I mean that's another. Again just another reason that when the D.C. people see him referencing scripture it doesn't. It's not going to land with evangelical Christians because it's a totally different language. The way that he frames his faith based approach to politics like evangelical Christians are still like the readouts. That is like the holdout in gambling. That is one area of the culture where there's a gambling holdout. So anyway, we'll see how all of this plays out in that primary. I think it'll be very interesting. We were talking about Goldman and Lander will also be the Israel question to.

Policy towards Israel. That'll be interesting. In that race as well, because I'm sure it's going to come up.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. Yes, indeed.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, well, let's go ahead and get to Sam Gadaltig. Ryan, this is going to be pretty interesting.

[Ryan Grim]

Excellent.

So you're telling me that the AI that's meant to make everyone's job easier to manage just adds more to manage on top of the thousands of apps the IT department already manages?

[Krystal Ball]

Funny how that works.

[Ryan Grim]

Any business can add AI. IBM helps you scale and manage AI to change how you do business. Let's create Smile to Business. IBM.

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[Sophie Cunningham]

This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or osa, in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don't sleep on osa.com this information is provided by Lilly, a medicine company.

[Ryan Grim]

Joining us now is Sam Godaldig, a big shot Republican lobbyist here in Washington with the firm cgcn who has focused for decades now on the class divide when it comes to.

Advocacy around Congress and the divisions between and within the parties. Sam's firm has a fascinating New report out, so we're excited to welcome him back. Sam, how you doing?

[Sam Godaldig]

Doing great. Good to see you guys.

[Ryan Grim]

Excellent. So the new report is called Class Dismissed and there's a lot of kind of interesting insights about our current politics that we want to walk through here. But sketch out for us like, like where this comes from. And people are going to be like, already asking themselves, why is a lobbyist like care about this? Like, how is this, how is this useful to advocacy for the corporate clients that you have here in Washington?

[Sam Godaldig]

So.

We'Ve known this for a long time because we go into a lot of offices and it's kind of instinctual. Once you start visiting with members of Congress in your head, you kind of characterize a Freedom Caucus member, a problem solver member, a Black Caucus member, a, a Hispanic Caucus member. And the, the feel in every meeting is a little different. And you walk out after, you know, for me now, 20 years in the business, thousands of meetings, and you can start to see a pattern. There's like a pattern recognition that goes along with it. And you realize that the members that represent the wealthier congressional districts also have the best reputation in Washington D.C. among think tanks, journalists, other lobbyists. So there's this unconscious bias towards calling the people that represent the wealthier parts of the country reasonable, thoughtful, productive. And there's the same pattern recognition when it comes to members of the Freedom Caucus, the Black Caucus, the Hispanic Caucus, and there's a caucus that is not as well known called the Anti woke Caucus. And that pattern recognition leads you to believe that those members are destructive problems, not, not productive in any way, not worth lobbying. They're crazy. They're, you know, whatever the word might be that, you know, and I'd love to see like a grouping of focus group boards amongst like the elites in Washington, how they describe the members that come from the poorer parts of the country. And you know, after 20 years you start like, it opens your eyes and you're like, holy shit, everyone here is a classist. So you ask why a Republican lobbying firm went to the effort to document all this. And it's honestly because we're trying to teach our corporate clients like, what they're dealing with and how to be successful in Washington. It also is meant to get them to reframe an unconscious bias that they have against those members. Those members are dealing with horrible issues. And we documented in class dismissed too. They're more likely to die of opioid deaths. They're more likely to serve in the military. They're more likely to be unemployed, they're more likely to live less long than the wealthier constituents in wealthy districts. So, you know, it kind of makes sense. It's like, why is everyone hating on these people that have such a, such a sorry story to tell? And.

Once you look at it that way, you can't unsee it. It's almost like you go to Spencer Gifts as a kid and they put one of those posters in front of you and they tell you to unfocus your eyes and you can see it. And it's like once you see it, you can't never see it again. So I feel like a little bit like we're screaming into a void just telling everyone what we see. And more and more people are starting to see it. Trump certainly awakened that, like pundits and the way mainstream news media cover Trump's win in 2024, they're starting to recognize it. But class dismissed, like, walks you through just how hard it is for a lot of constituencies in America, Dem and Republican, and why their representatives might be framed as not productive because their voters are angry and they want change right.

[Krystal Ball]

In Washington, it's strange to see people come to town acting like their hair is on fire, whether they're from the Freedom Caucus or their aoc. But what your report shows is that they're coming from places where their hair should be on fire. It would be irrational for them to not be furious at the system and focused on.

Overturning it or fixing it or changing however you want to say. But let's put this graphic up on the screen. You found the 30th, the 30 wealthiest districts. Seven of them are GOP representatives, are representative by. Represented by Republicans, and 23 are represented by Democrats. Similar breakdowns just in other metrics that you guys looked at. Sam, but this is kind of the. You're putting numbers to the realignment. What has kind of, maybe Trump was the first to really recognize it in modern political history, but the underpinnings, quantitative underpinnings of the ideological realignment. Do you see it that way? Is that how you talk about this when you're going into meetings with people who. Corporate clients that may have been used to sitting down and having a pretty open ear in Republican offices, and that's not always going to be the case this time around?

[Sam Godaldig]

Yes, 100%. That's the purest distillation of the data. And we go really deep into other metrics. But the 30 poorest and 30 wealthiest proves the point that there's an old conventional wisdom that Republicans will reflexively help the business community and maybe specifically the Fortune 500. And more and more, the Republican rank and file, the meat of the Republican party represents constituencies that have had a really tough go of it. And those voters in those congressional districts are not as reflexively, ideologically pro business as the party was, say, during the George w. Bush years, 20 years ago. So politics has evolved. Republican voters have evolved, Democratic voters have evolved. And what's very interesting is the fact that, you know, the Democrats have not lost their anger or heat towards corporate America, but Republicans now are fighting for the same constituencies that Democrats once completely commanded a long time ago. And I've never seen it in the 30 years I've been here. I was a staffer for about 12, and now I've been lobbying both parties consider working class voters the base of their party. And I'm not sure who's right. I mean, maybe we'll find out in the midterms. Maybe we'll find out in the 2028 election. I think they're almost completely up for grab. And if you look at how Trump did with Hispanic men, he won 52% of Hispanic men nationally. That's an insane progression from the Bush years when we thought we reached the pinnacle of success when we had marginal success with Hispanic voters. So I feel like the mainstream media, the people that cover Washington, whether you're a professor or a journalist or a think tank fellow, they kind of resort back to this lazy conventional wisdom that's definitely not true anymore. And I think it's our job to tell our clients how to successfully win and how to frame up arguments that used to work but no longer do.

[Ryan Grim]

So let me get this straight. Your company has data here, there, and everywhere, but your AI can't use the data because it's here, there, and everywhere? Seems like something's missing.

[Krystal Ball]

Every business has unique data.

[Ryan Grim]

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[Sophie Cunningham]

E I O this is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or OSA in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snore loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don'tsleep on osa.com this information is provided by Lilly a medicine company.

[Ryan Grim]

And so then if you look at the 30 poorest districts, the breakdown is a little more even. You have 18 of those districts represented by Democrats and 12 of them represented by Republicans.

There's also like a stark racial divide there. The Democratic districts are going to be, you know, in general black caucus or Hispanic caucus members. And then the Republican districts are going to be overwhelmingly, you know, white districts, poor white districts. If you expand it out to like the hundred poorest, do you even get closer to parity? Like let's say about 50, 50 almost.

[Sam Godaldig]

Or yeah, I think like the Republicans and I don't have the data in front of me and I apologize. But I think what if you really took a deep dive look into the middle. The Democrats kind of dominate both ends of it. So the poorest districts in the country are almost exclusively black and Hispanic caucus and they're all Democrats that represent those districts. The wealthiest are almost exclus white Democrats. And then the middle is a huge chunk of Republicans that skew poorer than wealthier. So I think the middle would be like a lot of Republicans, more Republicans than Democrats. And those Republicans are probably representing less wealthy districts. And if you broke it down into the caucuses, you would find that the Republicans from the wealthier districts join moderate mainstream. Again, these are very nice words. Moderate, mainstream, centrist. They join caucuses that reflect those viewpoints. And the people from the poorer districts, their caucuses are not described quite as kindly.

[Ryan Grim]

And when You. No, they're not at all. So when you would have started, you know, 30 years, you know, 25, 30 years ago, and you looked at the top 30, they would have been overwhelmingly Republican, probably still at that point. So as you, as you watched this unfold, like, what did you see happen? Like, how did those districts.

You know, start to go Democratic? And what effect do you think that has had on the kind of middle districts as you have this, like, then polarization between the haves and have nots?

[Sam Godaldig]

I think a lot of things happened over the last 10 years. Notably the most was Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton in 2016, which was kind of a continuation of the Tea Party that started in 2010 when you had Republicans challenging. So, like my favorite example is Marco Rubio was like, tried to be. They tried to run him out of a primary against now Democrat Charlie Crist, who was a popular Republican. Governor Mitch McConnell opposed Rubio running. I don't know if you remember that. He was dead set against Rubio jumping in the race. And, you know, now he's a fantastic, you know, maybe you disagree, Ryan, but he's certainly a competent Secretary of State.

[Krystal Ball]

And arguably a populist.

[Sam Godaldig]

Right. Like, all it proves to me is like the conventional wisdom and the smartest people in the room get shit wrong all the time. Like, Marco is wonderful for our party. And now I just think the Democrats are like on a lag behind that Tea Party. And I think we're starting to see it. And nobody documents it better than Ryan Grim on the left. And I wouldn't pretend to know as much, but Jasmine Crockett challenging Talarico in Texas, their dream candidate to take a very traditionally red state. They're going to come up with a lot of reasons why she's not productive, she's not helping. She could go on to be a Secretary of State. I've seen her on tv. They platform her all the time. She's in a voting rights district in the House. And here's the other thing that we've noticed. There is a glass ceiling on black and Hispanic senators and governors moving up into statewide positions. They're very well represented in the House. And a lot of that is because of the Voting Rights act, which creates minority majority districts. The states don't have any such governor. So I can't for the life of me think of a reason why black and Hispanic politicians who represent the base of the Democratic Party have had such a difficult time fracking into statewide elected positions in the bluest of states. I remember when we were talking A long time ago, Ryan, I wrote a check to Donna Edwards to prove a.

[Ryan Grim]

Point, and she was running for Senate against Chris Van Hollen. Right?

[Sam Godaldig]

Correct. Correct. And I guess the point is everyone has to play their role according to this town. And again, the town being think tank fellows, journalists, lobbyists, the smart people. And they put people in these boxes that are. I think it's racist. Like, I'd love to hear a Democrat pundit explain to me why Jasmine Crockett shouldn't run. Like, I'd love to just let them just go explain it.

[Ryan Grim]

We talked about that earlier in the show, and she actually is kind of a perfect K Street candidate in that sense. Had pledged, had, you know, had bragged about not taking corporate PAC money since. Has taken enormous amounts of corporate PAC money, has taken.

Millions in support from crypto, has been, you know, pretty, you know, went on an APAC trip to Israel. So I think some people are going to have some arguments around substance when it comes to Crockett. But your point is a legitimate one, that for all of their talk, when it comes to a. Then the Maryland case is a good example. When it comes to a blue state where the Democrat is going to win, there often is not support for black candidates.

[Sam Godaldig]

Now.

[Ryan Grim]

Who are the two senators now from?

[Sam Godaldig]

Also Brooks.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, so, yeah, so also Brooks. Did. Did finally break through. But it. But nowhere near, you know, nowhere near where it should be.

[Sam Godaldig]

No, not. Not for a party that has weaponized race or. And again, I don't want to make it about parties. I want to make it about this city. Washington, the city we all live in, the city we never leave. They do. Politicians come and go. They serve an average of, you know, 10 years in Congress generally, and then they leave. I've been here 30, I don't know how long. Ryan and Emily, you've been here. But, like, we don't leave. We're Washingtonians. We make a living here, and we set the stage. And I just think that conventional wisdom is completely lopsided, upside down, broken, not relevant. You know, choose the term you want. But, like, maybe we're not so smart. Maybe Marco Rubio was one of the best things to happen to the Republican Party. Maybe Jasmine Crockett might be. Who knows? Like, who are we to say we've been proven wrong so often it's not funny.

[Krystal Ball]

My last question, Sam, is if your corporate clients have started to realize this is not a flash in the pan, because one of the things this data, I think, makes clear is that it's not a flash in the pan. That it's too deeply rooted to suddenly change, that there's populism, whether it's, whether it's Democratic populism or Republican populism. There's a class based populism that's emerged as a pattern, as a trend.

Do you think Washington is realizing, is coping with that? Do you think they're just. Because I think actually Crockett and Talarico are kind of good examples. Oh, here's your populist messaging. But neither of them is like a populist candidate, truly, at least from what we can tell so far. Is that sinking in.

[Sam Godaldig]

So you guys have a beef with corporate America? I kind of don't.

I just don't. I get that you're upset about them and I'm not, but whatever, we can have a nice conversation. I think they're like water. Like if you show them the path to success, whatever it might be, they'll get there. Maybe not quickly. It's not easy to see the image in the poster that we talked about, but increasingly more and more people are starting to see the image. And some of this stuff makes sense, but it has to break a frame of how you were raised, how you were, what situation you grew up in. We've talked about this in class Dismissed. One, the first document we did talks a little bit about the unconscious bias of wealthier suburban kids moving to Washington and the world as they understand it might not be the same as the way, you know, other, other Washingtonians moved here. And, and I think Washington happens to be corporate America too, dominated by people that, you know, went to a four year college, grew up in a wealthy, you know, a wealthy suburb of a major city, have been urbanized a touch. But you know, it, it's, I'm not ashamed of that way of thinking. And, and I grew up that way too. But like again, going to every congressional office or, or a lot of them over 20 years has opened my eyes. And going to their fundraisers and hearing them explain why they're so mad and what it's like when they go home and what they have to hear and what their constituents are upset about, it breaks the frame. And most people don't have that luxury where they can pop into a congressional office and get a real taste of America. I've lived here for 30 years, but I kind of understand it because I've listened to them honestly speak about struggles they have when they go home. So it's made me more open minded. I'm proud to be open minded. And that's kind of why we write the memos to explain what 20 years of talking to members of Congress has revealed to us.

[Ryan Grim]

And I will say on your point about your love of corporate America that you kind of only know what you had until it's gone. Like, compared to the oligarchs that are now kind of the dominant power structure in the U.S. i'm almost, like, wistful for the time of.

The corporate capture of America.

[Krystal Ball]

Wistful for the Chamber of Commerce.

[Ryan Grim]

Can we go back to that?

[Sam Godaldig]

Yeah, it's careful what you wish for. That happens in Washington a lot.

[Ryan Grim]

At least they had some, like, nominal connection to the United States and some, like, connection to the national interest. Not so much with these new guys.

[Krystal Ball]

This is called Global.

[Sam Godaldig]

I'm not going to get myself in trouble. Ryan, you go on and rail about them, and I'll keep representing them. And it'll be like the Sheepdog and, you know the famous Looney Tunes cartoon where we can grab a beer after.

[Ryan Grim]

Work and come back at it. Sounds good.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, folks can read this report. We'll put the report in the video link, but they can also read it on the CGCN website. Sam, this was really interesting. I appreciate you coming on.

[Sam Godaldig]

Thank you for having me, guys. Always great to see you.

[Krystal Ball]

Of course.

[Ryan Grim]

See you later.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, that does it for us on today's edition of Breaking Points. Ryan, it was great to have Godalting on.

[Ryan Grim]

Indeed. And we'll see everybody at the Miracle Theater. Everybody, tonight.

[Krystal Ball]

You will all be there?

[Ryan Grim]

I'll be there.

[Krystal Ball]

You can still get tickets on the Reason website and. Or you can just Google. I think it's Reason versus. And Ryan and I have the links on our X accounts as well. We'll put it in the video description, I think, too. So you have plenty of places to find it. No.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Really want every single one of you to be there.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, that's right. We'll be hanging out afterwards. There's like, a post.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes. I can't see it.

[Ryan Grim]

You'll be there for, like, five minutes.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, because then I have to go do After Party Live, Emily's Day on Wednesday.

[Ryan Grim]

Like, very early morning all the way debate. And then After Party Live.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it's a lot.

[Ryan Grim]

People should probably watch that. It's probably gonna be a disaster.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm gonna have, like, Gatorade on stage. I'll be wearing one of those backpacks with, like, the hydration straw. It'll be good. All right, everyone, thanks so much for tuning in. We'll see you tonight and we'll see you Friday.

[Sophie Cunningham]

This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or osa, in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at. Don't sleep on OSA.com this information is provided by Lily, a medicine company.

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Sam Godaldig]

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