← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
12/10/25: Trump Bends Knee To China, NYT Demands War, Jon Stewart Rips Trump, Trump Gives Economy A+, Dem Landslides
01:16:12
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
New York Times Editorial Board
Guaranteed Human.
- [00:06]
IBM Advertiser
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- [00:28]
Lets create smile to business IBM.
- [00:35]
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- [01:04]
Sophie Cunningham
I O this is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or OSA in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don't sleep on osa.com. this information is provided by Lilly a medicine company.
- [01:43]
Krystal Ball
Hey guys. Sagar and Krystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you.
- [01:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Can find honest perspectives from the left.
- [01:55]
Krystal Ball
And the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access.
- [02:04]
Sophie Cunningham
To our full shows unedited ad free.
- [02:06]
Krystal Ball
And all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com.
- [02:17]
Saagar Enjeti
All right. Good morning and welcome to Breaking Point. So if this two hour program is not enough Ryan and Emily for you today, you can see us what tonight at what's the theater?
- [02:27]
Krystal Ball
The Miracle Theater.
- [02:28]
Saagar Enjeti
The Miracle theater in Washington D.C. we will be debating some reason bros who are gonna be defending Big Tech apocalypse or something.
- [02:36]
Krystal Ball
Robbie Soave and Elizabeth Nolan Brown. The resolution is Big Tech does more good than harm. Ryan and I are obviously arguing that big Tech does more harm than good.
- [02:46]
Saagar Enjeti
We can put the details down in the show notes and comment and all.
- [02:50]
Krystal Ball
That, but that's where we'll be.
- [02:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Still a couple seats left.
- [02:52]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, there are seats left. So come join us if you're interested.
- [02:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Right now, seats left on the day. That's outrageous. I would have thought this would be sold out.
- [03:00]
Krystal Ball
Ryan is disappointed in all of you.
- [03:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Very disappointed.
- [03:03]
Krystal Ball
Every single one.
- [03:03]
Saagar Enjeti
It's going to be incredible.
- [03:04]
Krystal Ball
Every single one of you. Yeah, it's going to be fun. All right. So today's show, Donald Trump sat for an interview with Dasha Burns of Politico that has just spawned several different news cycles because he said all kinds of things like the economy is an A plus plus plus plus plus but also just called European leaders weak and has a new national security strategy that is circulating. It's a PDF etf. You could read it yourself. So we're going to dive into that. Jon Stewart went deep on the Venezuela crisis and it's a, it's a masterpiece. It's pretty good. It's pretty good. And then we're going to talk about a little bit about tariffs. Trump's thoughts on where the economy stands heading into a midterm election cycle. And some elections last night, Ryan, that had interesting results. Miami in particular.
- [03:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. Some huge over performances around the country for Democrats. And then we've got Brad Lander jumping into the race in Manhattan against Dan Goldman, much to the chagrin of aipac. You have some consolidation around Lander already. Zoran Mamdani endorsing him. Bernie Sanders endorsing him. You Lynne knew candidate dropped out to encourage some consolidation, much to the delight of Republicans. You've got Jasmine Crockett announcing her run down in Texas for Senate to talk about all that.
- [04:23]
Krystal Ball
Yes. And Kamala Harris is getting into another war of words with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who was asked about it on Ms. Now, that clip you're going to want to stick around for. But Kamala Harris got a splashy profile in the New York Times this week which has some pretty interesting details and it sounds a whole lot like she wants to run for president again. Gavin Newsom was flailing to try to answer for his relationship with AIPAC as well. We're going to break that down and Sam Godalzig is going to join us, his firm, cgcn. Sam, you may remember from a segment we did with Brody Mullins and Sam himself talking about sort of the dirty secrets of lobbying here in D.C. sam's firm put out a really Interesting report that put some numbers on the realignment phenomenon and the class based element of the realignment phenomenon. So we're excited to have him here.
- [05:23]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes, indeed.
- [05:24]
Krystal Ball
All right. Well, let's get started with Donald Trump's comments on NATO as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine, though it seemingly has no end in sight at this moment. Let's go ahead and roll this part of Donald Trump's interview published yesterday with Dash Burns of Politico. This is going to be a one. How involved are you going to get? I mean, could we see you getting involved in European I want to run the United States.
- [05:48]
Donald Trump
I don't want to run Europe. I'm involved in Europe very much.
- [05:52]
Krystal Ball
Might you endorse?
- [05:53]
Donald Trump
NATO calls me Daddy. I mean, I have a lot to say. I just think he's doing a very good job in a different sense on immigration. His country's landlocked. You know, he's got a different kind of a country. He doesn't have the sea, so he can't have ships coming in with energy. He's got a big pipe coming in from Russia. They've had it for a long time. It's a different situation. He's got.
- [06:11]
Krystal Ball
So would you consider some financial assistance there?
- [06:14]
Donald Trump
He's really gotten right is the immigration because he allows nobody in his country. And Poland has done a very good job in that respect, too. But most European nations.
- [06:26]
They'Re decaying. They're decaying.
- [06:30]
Krystal Ball
Those landlocked comments were about Hungary and Poland in particular. But this is another part of the interview where Donald Trump talked about negotiations in Ukraine. Let's roll a two here. On Sunday, your son, Donald Trump Jr. Responded to a reporter's question about whether you will, quote, walk away from Ukraine. And your son said, I think he may. Is that correct?
- [06:53]
Donald Trump
No, it's not correct, but it's not exactly wrong. We have to, you know, they have to play ball.
- [06:59]
Krystal Ball
That's a great line. It's not correct, but it's not exactly wrong. Ryan Zelinsky, meanwhile, just in the last day or so has said they are not giving up territory and he's doubling, tripling, quadrupling down on this. So no closer at all to an end of the war there.
- [07:18]
Saagar Enjeti
So it's a little bit right. It's a little bit schizophrenic where he's saying on the one hand he doesn't want to run Europe. On the other hand, NATO calls me daddy, which anyway actually true. His son, his son says that he's going to walk away from Ukraine. He Says that he's not, but that's not necessarily wrong.
- [07:41]
So, you know, it's difficult to read exactly, you know, where he is at this because he seems to kind of be flailing. Meanwhile, you're getting more and more reports that.
- [07:54]
A massive portion of the Ukrainian soldiers who are on the front lines at this point are there as a result of what they call. What do they call it? They were busified or they were bused. Basically, it means they were forcibly inscripted that you have these buses that go around Ukraine and they see somebody of fighting age. And fighting age can now be up to like 64 or something like that.
- [08:23]
And they grab them and throw them into the bus. And there's a lot of videos that are going around of, you know, passersby or family members shooting footage of this happening with just some absolutely, you know, heartbreaking stuff with like, you know, two little girls in the backseat of the car and their father, like, gets yanked out of the front seat of the car and then. And thrown into a bus. And Reuters did a, did a report recently where they followed, I think, like a dozen men who went to the front lines and over a period of months, and none of them are there anymore. Like, either. They're either awol, injured, or dead. And a lot of those were just forcibly sent there. So to me, it'd be, it would be one thing if the Ukrainian people were like, enthusiastically, you know, rushing to the front and saying the beginning of the war. Right. For the first. Yeah. For the, for the beginning, they were. If that was the case, then you could say, okay, the free world, whatever that is, free world, needs to defend people who are, like.
- [09:31]
Willingly, like, throwing themselves into this conflict.
- [09:35]
But to give Ukraine a whole lot of money so they can fund the forcible grabbing of men and then putting a gun in their hands and sending them to the front against their will.
- [09:50]
That can't be the right side. Doesn't mean there is a right side of it. But that certainly is not the good guys.
- [09:59]
Krystal Ball
And Putin obviously has been forced to change recruitment methods as well. I mean, it's just been a meat grinder for years and years, right?
- [10:07]
Saagar Enjeti
At least, what, 10 times bigger or whatever, right?
- [10:09]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, exactly. And so it's obvious that European leaders are also getting frustrated with Zelenskyy. That New York Times expose on the corruption and the mismanagement. I mean, that's an understatement. The willful mismanagement might be a better way to put it, of tons of.
- [10:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Looting is the other word.
- [10:32]
Krystal Ball
Looting of tons of Funds as a, that has been propped up by its European neighbors, by the United States over the last several years. And the money is turning into just a graft for elites of the well connected. It's like a spoil system for well connected Ukrainians. And so the incentives to end the war if you're somebody like Zelensky or if you're them, they're not aligned right now with the people who are just getting pulled off the streets.
- [11:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
- [11:02]
Krystal Ball
And so, yeah, completely tragic situation. And we're now coming up on a year from when Trump took office and said he would have this ended in 24, 48 hours. And if other people are starting to get irked with Zelenskyy, if other European leaders are really starting to get irked with Zelenskyy, his time's running out on these negotiations. But then again, what can you do, right?
- [11:26]
Saagar Enjeti
And the Europeans seem, they seem, they continue to seem to be all in on this conflict. It seems like in the beginning on the corruption point, that the US.
- [11:38]
Sort of hoped that vibes would override the underlying structure that like your country is under mortal existential threat from this Russian invasion. And the vibes from that are going to produce a level of patriotism that is, that is going to stigmatize and suppress the endemic corruption that, that was central or that is central to the Ukrainian political economy. And that just, that never happened. And I don't know why it would. Like, if you look at the US during the Civil War, you look at the US during World War I, US during World War II, there are always people that are profiting off of war in corrupt ways by selling and the British Empire, every, like every conflict you have.
- [12:31]
Scam artists and massive corporations who will like sell substandard equipment to the troops or no equipment at all and just invoice for it and keep the money like that. It's just endemic. When you start with an underlying higher level of corruption.
- [12:49]
This is, this is what you're gonna, this is what you're gonna wind up with when it's also.
- [12:52]
Krystal Ball
Not their money, it's coming from other countries. And that's what I mean, a lot of it coming from us. And I think that's also what's going to test the patience of European leaders the more, I mean, kind of everybody knows this, but when you're able to start putting investigative reporting to the question, like the New York Times did, actually running down some of these trails, that I think is obviously going to start to test the patience of more and more people. We could put the Next element up on the screen. Trump wading back into these negotiations comes as their national security strategy. The Trump administration national security strategy document was released. There is a classified version of this as well, that one outlet I've heard the name of it has a look at. But here we like this piece from Compact, which pointed out the first. So it has shocked in two ways. According to Compact, this is about the document. The first lies in its surprisingly dovish stance toward China. Those hoping for a grand strategy to confront the People's Republic are thereby disappointed. The second shock lies in the brusque assessment of the existential risks facing Europe. According to the document, the continent faces the stark prospect of a civilizational erasure. Now, the classified version of this, by the way, says that Trump wants to create a new group without any Western Europeans. And it'd be called, like, the core five. So Russia, India, Japan. I'm forgetting who else I'm doing Rick Perry, but. And the United States.
- [14:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Russia, India, Japan, China might have been China, Brazil.
- [14:22]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, almost like a BRICS rival.
- [14:25]
Saagar Enjeti
But he wants to do brics, but with us in it.
- [14:28]
Krystal Ball
With us in it. Yeah. He's like, let us in. Now, this Compact piece goes on to say, but those stances are connected. They come from the conviction that whatever challenges the US faces from China in the 21st century returning rerunning the paradigm of the Cold War with a traditional European allies and China in lieu of the Soviet Union is the wrong way to do it. And it says not only is this paradigm inadequate to grasping the nature of the challenge from China, it is also dependent on a coherent concept of Western civilization that no longer reflects existing conditions in Europe. So, Ryan, the political question this raises is, as Trump struggles to end the conflict in Ukraine, it looks like his national security grand strategy is also to move away from alliances with Western Europe. Now, he's likely only in office for another three years. So how much of this can be accomplished, I think is a pretty open question.
- [15:23]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. If it's J.D. vance. True. He believes this. And then some as, as he never hesitates to, to point out. Right. He's, he's much more explicit about seeing Europe as kind of a vassal situation.
- [15:35]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [15:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Than as, than as anything of an alliance. And the Europeans have just kind of allowed it to happen.
- [15:40]
Krystal Ball
They have, they have. And I don't know what option that, what else is on the table for them.
- [15:46]
Really? I mean, the, the leverage that they have compared to, obviously compared to China, I mean, it's just night and day.
- [15:53]
Saagar Enjeti
They could also, I mean, they could stop undermining themselves economically constantly. Like coming out of the financial crisis, Germany insisted that it lead the way when it came to austerity. Like the US had an insufficient stimulus in response to the financial crisis. But ours looked like the New Deal compared to what Germany insisted that Europe do. And so if you look at the divide in GDP per capita between the United States and Europe, it begins in, like 2008. That's the great divergence. And Germany did that to Europe.
- [16:35]
Now they're kind of de. Industrializing themselves in order to basically just appease the United States. And it's not going well because basically what they're doing is they're there. They gave up cheap energy from Russia. The cheap energy was fueling their manufacturing base. And so now their manufacturing base is collapsing as. As is Ukraine. So, yeah, yeah. And they. Anyway, they're giant mess.
- [17:02]
Krystal Ball
It really is a giant mess. And let's also put a 4 on the screen. This is speaking of China. The New York Times headline here is, China's access to Powerful Nvidia Chips comes at quote, critical moment subhead. President Trump said Nvidia can export some chips, but years of US Restrictions have propelled China to make everything it needs for advanced AI. And so the Trump administration is trying to walk this tightrope when it comes to Nvidia, to kind of make sure that the United States is on the forefront and that China doesn't fully develop its own alternatives, which is a case that you can make if you're Jensen Huang and you want to keep that money coming, but also please the hawks who say, what the hell is this policy? So another tightrope for the administration.
- [17:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. So basically, Trump is saying that he's going to allow some of these most sophisticated chips that the Biden administration and previous US Administrations, including Trump, had been keeping from China because the belief is that China will do what China often does, which is take US Technology and kind of reverse engineer it and make their own one, you know, New Nvidia. New Nvidia. And so I have not found anybody who thinks that from a US Perspective, this is like a good thing.
- [18:28]
You know, we're objective here. We don't care about the US Perspective alone. Right. So maybe if this moves us further away from war. Well, yeah, better thing.
- [18:37]
Krystal Ball
I mean, I think that's the. The gloss that Jensen went. Who wasn't he on Joe Rogan this week, too? I think that's what he can put on this, which is. It's possible, I mean, that that is possibly an answer that if you keep China Addicted to US Tech, it's less and less likely that you end up in a kinetic conflict. So I.
- [18:56]
Saagar Enjeti
Actually, that is a good theory. Maybe, except we have now made it so clear to them that we are not a reliable ally. We're not a trustworthy business partner by being as reckless as we are. That's mutual and sure, but that. That. We were never expecting that. Really.
- [19:14]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's right. Yeah.
- [19:15]
Saagar Enjeti
And so they are full steam ahead trying to build an economy that is.
- [19:22]
That is not dependent at all on the United States.
- [19:24]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. As they should be. I mean, if you're from their perspective. As they should be. Yes. And how long.
- [19:30]
Saagar Enjeti
Meanwhile, we need, like all of their stuff to make our weapons.
- [19:33]
Krystal Ball
Exactly.
- [19:34]
Saagar Enjeti
How's that going to work out?
- [19:35]
Krystal Ball
And we need Taiwan.
- [19:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [19:38]
Krystal Ball
And what I was just going to add to that is the administration's rationale for this Nvidia decision. We are talking about the, like, strategic possibilities. I'm sure it had a whole lot to do with Jensen Huang kissing the ring and Nvidia kissing the ring and not this, like, grand. Because that's how the Trump Foreign Policy 2.0 has essentially been conducted is by Trump himself making deals. So we can put that rationale on the. We can use that sort of like substantive meat on the bones. But that doesn't mean it's the reason, the real reason, at the end of the day, the administration made the decision. It might just be a strategy that makes them feel more comfortable with the decision. But I think your point is right. Even if they're dependent on Nvidia chips now, it doesn't mean that they're actually going to be dependent on Nvidia chips long into the future.
- [20:36]
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- [21:03]
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- [22:03]
Sophie Cunningham
Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, or osa, in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don'tsleep on OSA.com this information is provided by Lilly, A. Medicine Company.
- [22:43]
Saagar Enjeti
The New York Times is quite concerned that, and actually I think reasonably so, that the Chinese would actually whoop us if we got into an actual conflict with them, which should make really avoiding war with China probably like the highest priority of the United States if we might actually lose it. It's a very long New York Times opinion video that is worth watching just for a look into the mindset of the kind of military industrial complex as reflected through the Times opinion page. And it's looking bleak for them. Let's roll a little bit of this Times Op Ed.
- [23:25]
New York Times Editorial Board
America must prepare for the future of war.
- [23:30]
This is the opinion of the New York Times editorial board.
- [23:35]
You might be thinking America should focus on peace, not war. But one of the most effective ways to prevent a war is to be strong enough to win it.
- [23:45]
That's why it's imperative that we change. The US Must reform not just its military, but also the political processes for funding it and the industrial base that supports it.
- [23:58]
For decades, our military has been built around the idea that more sophistication is better. This made sense during the Cold War, when the west could outspend Russia. But today, our reliance on expensive and exquisite systems has become a vulnerability. In war games, large ships like the USS Gerald R. Ford are often destroyed. Still, the Navy plans to build at least nine additional Ford class carriers in the coming decades.
- [24:24]
America must embrace new and more nimble means of warfare. This means simultaneously winning the war to build new autonomous weapons and leading the world in controlling them. Doing so will require challenging the status quo for how weapons are designed and manufactured.
- [24:43]
Defense spending is routinely steered towards the five major defense contractors who have become experts at navigating thousands of pages of regulations. But they're both slow and costly. To jumpstart new technologies, the Pentagon must relax its byzantine rules for buying weapons and make bets on young companies that show promise to get results.
- [25:05]
Congress needs to stop getting in the way. Each year, the United States spends billions of dollars that the military didn't ask for often so that lawmakers can make their districts happy. Let's focus on winning wars, not elections.
- [25:21]
We also have a workforce problem. In the next decade, the US will need to add 140,000 shipbuilders to its workforce. And that's just to meet the demand for submarine construction. We should intensify recruiting and training programs for manufacturing trades. And we should focus on recruiting young people interested in software and technology.
- [25:41]
In long wars, the countries that can manufacture the most win. America now makes just 17% of all manufactured goods, while China makes almost twice as much. And their lead is growing. It's only by partnering with allies that the US can match China's manufacturing capabilities. So rather than slapping our allies with tariffs, we should be partnering with them.
- [26:05]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, what, I mean the last point that they're making there, that we just should just be partnering with a lot more people. Okay, that's good. Diplomacy is good. The part about we shouldn't focus on peace, let's focus on war. It's like, well, I don't know, we've been focusing on war pretty hard here in the United States for 250 years. And this is where we are now. The context, to put some context on this, a couple days ago there was news report that China is now able to produce hypersonic missiles at about $100,000 apiece.
- [26:40]
There are Ford F150s that cost more than that.
- [26:44]
And so they showed that image of the Gerald Ford getting hit. The massive aircraft carrier that is now in the process of like, you know, trying to overthrow Maduro.
- [26:53]
Krystal Ball
They said over the course of the next decades, the US is trying to build nine more carriers.
- [26:58]
Saagar Enjeti
Nine more of those decades.
- [26:59]
Krystal Ball
Decades.
- [27:00]
Saagar Enjeti
And so if you have, let's say you have 10 hypersonic missiles that you spent a million dollars to build, like the chance that, let's say you have 100 of them, spend $10 million, which is nothing compared to the cost of a multi billion dollar aircraft carrier. You send 100 hypersonic missiles at an aircraft carrier, they're not going to block every single one. And so that's why they say in the war games these ships are sitting ducks. And yet here we are. We're gonna go spend enormous amounts of money to make nine more of them over decades. Decades which will take, which they can all be sunk in the first week.
- [27:39]
Krystal Ball
I was gonna say we'll still be making them after everything is like you don't even need them anymore. We'll still be making them.
- [27:45]
Saagar Enjeti
Right? So you can, you can very easily see the history being written down after, after a conflict like the US did this. They spent all the times is right. They spent all this money on these like hyper expensive things that enriched the donor class and the billionaires. The Chinese built cheap and effective things like hypersonic missiles and drones.
- [28:10]
Hacked all our systems and we lost in a week.
- [28:13]
Krystal Ball
Well this is what was so confusing to me about the video. I mean on the one hand they're making a lot of extremely important over long overdue points. I mean the point about breaking up the monopolies in the defense industry is like very obviously true. And that's while we were watching it, I was like what is this sponsored by Anduril and Palmer Luckey because he has a great point about the industry and that's all true. It just framing it in this big picture context about how we need to be focused on winning wars. You have to get into wars to win the wars. And the whole point of shaking up the defense industry, let's take it at face value from people like Palmer Luckey is the piece through strength line which is that you don't actually get into the wars because your tech is better.
- [29:06]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. Except the problem. And Palmer Lucky is a good example. He's building these multimillion dollar drones that just keep crashing.
- [29:15]
China's building much cheaper drones that work. We're giving Palmer Lucky millions for drones that don't work.
- [29:20]
Krystal Ball
Well we aren't just giving it to him, he's trying to sell it to us. That's the difference.
- [29:25]
Saagar Enjeti
But we're already, we are buying a lot.
- [29:27]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, we're buying but like I think.
- [29:29]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm a billionaire, you know.
- [29:30]
Krystal Ball
Well we'll see. I'm not a Palmer doomer. I think, I think there's something pretty interesting happening there. But we'll see. I mean there's. You could break up the monopoly and then end up creating new monopolies so that can easily take the place and we'll see about that. So our system we can't do even when we do industrial policy, we can't do it. Right.
- [29:52]
Saagar Enjeti
So speaking of war, Jon Stewart went Daily show old school. Let's watch this. A little bit of this masterpiece of a segment from him. Go watch the whole thing. But here's a clip of it on the parallels between Venezuela and Iraq.
- [30:05]
Donald Trump
But I know what MAGA is doing. They're convincing us that Iraq was an entirely different set of circumstances. That country was led by a sword wielding, mustachioed madman who held an iron grip on his people and his power. Nicolas Maduro is nothing like, oh shit.
- [30:24]
Saagar Enjeti
That drugged out dinghy was a floating weapon of mass destruction. Every boat carrying fentanyl and drugs in this country is a weapon of mass destruction.
- [30:33]
Donald Trump
Are you kidding me right now? You guys have the balls to tell us that the pretext for Iraq was bullshit and that war was a mistake and we're not like that. And also Venezuela has weapons of mass destruction and we have to stop them. For those of you who are like, oh my God, I didn't even realize that all the fentanyl in the US comes from Venezuela. That's because it doesn't. Like almost none of it. Like none of it. Because as much as you say war with Venezuela would be so different from, from Iraq, it seems like you may be using the neocons sales manual. Like other than WMDs, why was it so important to take down Saddam Hussein? His regime has an active support for and cooperation with terrorist networks. Terrorist networks. That's the worst kind of networks. Well, you'll never guess where the terrorists are now.
- [31:30]
Saagar Enjeti
Iran, its IRGC, and even Hezbollah. They have planted their flag on Venezuelan territory with a full and open cooperation of that regime.
- [31:38]
Donald Trump
Wow. So if you're saying we go to war with Venezuela, we're also getting into a proxy war with Iran, I'm sold. Now if I remember correctly though, Iraq lasted until still.
- [31:53]
And what did they say about that? I think it would be a cakewalk.
- [31:56]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't think it would be a that tough find.
- [32:02]
Donald Trump
I think the saddest part of getting into a war of choice in 2025.
- [32:09]
Is that Dick Cheney won't be around to see it.
- [32:15]
Saagar Enjeti
Later. He goes into the question of how you can square America first with this, with the circle of this intervention. He plays this great clip of my friend Jesse Waters saying it's South America. America is right there in the name. It's obviously America First.
- [32:35]
Krystal Ball
It's obviously America First. Well, that's the line that, that's the line that Rubio has been using, is that if you are America first, this is our hemisphere It's a less sophisticated rendering of the Rubio line, but it's also our world.
- [32:46]
Saagar Enjeti
Like, how does that not apply to the world?
- [32:49]
Krystal Ball
They're trying to.
- [32:49]
Saagar Enjeti
We're world power. America first. It's our world.
- [32:52]
Krystal Ball
It's our world.
- [32:53]
Saagar Enjeti
So everything in the world is ours.
- [32:54]
Krystal Ball
There you go. If it identifies as America.
- [32:59]
Saagar Enjeti
Ye, that it's America says it right there. The Americas.
- [33:02]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [33:03]
Saagar Enjeti
Like, what part of this is confusing to you?
- [33:05]
Krystal Ball
But this is where we talked in the last block about how the Trump national security strategy that was released is a literal PDF titled National Security Strategy is trying to move away from the Cold War coalitions with Western Europe. But this is still all entirely Cold War rhetoric. It's not even Iraq. It's Marco Rubio talking about, you can substitute Iran and Hezbollah for Soviet Union. It's exactly what we were doing in South America and Central America during the Cold War is exactly the same playbook and the same regime change playbook. And they're using, I mean, if you were trying to sell this word to the American public, saying these are legit weapons of mass destruction is about the dumbest way you could do it. That is the quickest way that you can get distrust about the legitimacy of this war is to say, say, what did Jesse Waters say? Those boats are 3D weapons of mass destruction. Like that. Yeah, like that is the quickest way you can make people be like, whoa, hold on. Yeah, let's, let's go easy on this one.
- [34:06]
Saagar Enjeti
Like that. I mean, in his defense, claiming weapons of mass destruction. Destruction worked last time.
- [34:14]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [34:14]
Saagar Enjeti
They don't care that the war didn't go well. They got to do their war. So in that sense, they're like, oh, let's do the WMD playbook again. But to, to your point about Rubio, for that reason, Dropsite News is actually, we're launching a Latin American desk for this reason because, like, it's clear that as the, based on this national security strategy, what Trump is saying about Europe and China, there is a recognition that American global hegemony is at the beginning of the end, at least. And what that's going to mean is that our friends closer buy are going to get a lot more attention. Jon Stewart defined America first as, we're not going to kill people over there, we're going to kill people here.
- [35:00]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [35:02]
Saagar Enjeti
So we're going to have to beef up our coverage of that.
- [35:05]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. But I mean, also, let's say you, let's just say you buy into that strategy. Their plan. They point constantly to Panama, but their Plan has not worked elsewhere. Give them that. Give them that.
- [35:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Also, we had a map, massive military base in Panama already, and Manuel Noriega was a CIA asset. So, like, fire, like firing your own asset and replacing them.
- [35:34]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [35:35]
Saagar Enjeti
Is not as impressive a feat as going into a hostile place where you don't have a military base and trying to completely revolutionize the political structure.
- [35:47]
Krystal Ball
Well, we did revolution. I mean, originally, Panama exists because we were revolutionizing and we created it, Right? Yes. And so if you again, keep going back to these examples.
- [36:03]
Best example is right now you have a Sandinista president, like, how has this worked for you all in the arc of history? How have these regime change operations backing militants against alleged communist or Hezbollah sympathizers, which. Which he's of course correct. And this was the point that you were gonna make or that you were making, which is that, yes, Iran and China are going to get footholds in Venezuela, and to some extent, they already do have them. It's because of the regime change wars that many people in those countries have been open, have been open to embracing these different countries because some people there really don't like the United States. I wonder why.
- [36:46]
Saagar Enjeti
I wonder. Can't imagine why. One example of. Of why they might not is Pete Hegseth being on a serial killer spree around the Caribbean. Trump was asked in this interview whether or not he'd be okay with Hegseth testifying. And if you're Hegseth, you'd probably like to see a little bit firmer defense than the president offered him right here.
- [37:11]
Krystal Ball
Should he testify, Pete Hegseth under oath before Congress about that controversial second strike on the alleged drug boat on October 2nd. I don't care if he does.
- [37:19]
Donald Trump
He can if he wants. I don't care.
- [37:21]
Krystal Ball
Do you think he should?
- [37:23]
Donald Trump
I don't care. I would say do it if you want. He's doing a great job.
- [37:27]
Krystal Ball
Have you watched the video stopping?
- [37:30]
Donald Trump
I watch everything. Yeah, I watch everything. I see a lot of things.
- [37:34]
Krystal Ball
And do you believe that that second strike was necessary?
- [37:38]
Donald Trump
Well, it looked like they were trying to turn back over the boat, but I don't get involved in that. That's up to them.
- [37:43]
Saagar Enjeti
I don't care. It's not exactly what you want when you're facing war crimes allegations. Speaking of war crimes, he was also asked about, and this was the story that Sager and I had reported earlier, that he was given a bunch of targets in Mexico and Colombia by his intelligence community when he asked for targets connected to the drug trade in Venezuela because there Isn't much in Venezuela connected to the drug trade except a little coca leaf off in the jungle. And so he's now got his eye on Colombia and Mexico. Let's roll that one.
- [38:16]
Krystal Ball
Would you consider doing something similar with Mexico and Colombia that are even more responsible for fentanyl trafficking to the us?
- [38:22]
Donald Trump
Sure, I would.
- [38:23]
Saagar Enjeti
We put up before here, Daily Mail reporting Trump sending shockwaves through Latin America. They should be watching Breaking Points or reading dropsite. They would not be shocked.
- [38:33]
Krystal Ball
No.
- [38:34]
Saagar Enjeti
Learn ahead of time what's going on by getting some actual news. Don't just wait for it to spill out of Trump's mouth.
- [38:42]
Krystal Ball
Save yourself the shock waves. But I actually don't even think many people in Latin America are at all surprised by this, to be honest, because.
- [38:49]
Saagar Enjeti
Daily Mail might be sensationalizing that a little bit. You think? Shocking.
- [38:53]
Krystal Ball
If they would, they wouldn't do that. But, yeah, he's sort of been telegraphing a willingness. Speaking of Cold War 2.0 with Trump, you genuinely do not know. I don't know whether he knows if this is serious, if he's serious about this, or if he's posturing, because he does so much posturing, he's comfortable with pushing the limits on what typical politicians are comfortable threatening. And so it's. It's hard to say how serious that is, but because the President United States said it, you have to take it seriously. Of course you have to take it seriously. So we'll see. You would certainly have a better justification for striking targets in Sinaloa. For example, if you're trying to stop fentanyl overdoses in the United States, fentanyl trafficking into the United States, that justification would be a whole lot easier than boats that are going to Suriname, off the coast of Venezuela.
- [39:50]
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- [40:18]
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- [41:18]
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- [41:58]
Saagar Enjeti
We do have some good news on the economy. So a lot of you out there may think that rents and home prices are through the roof and becoming unaffordable. You might think it's really tough to get a decent job. You might think it's tough to keep the job you have and that your manager lately is feeling pretty good and not treating you quite as well as he or she was in like 2021 or 2022. You might get a bag of groceries and be like, excuse me, how much for that? You would be wrong. Fortunately, yeah, this is the good news. This is the great news. Luckily for you, the economy has never been better. Trump was asked about it and celebrated his tremendous success in the interview with Politico.
- [42:46]
Krystal Ball
But I do want to talk about the economy, sir, here at home. And I wonder what grade you would give a economy. A plus, Yeah. A.
- [42:55]
Going to pick a new Fed chair soon. Is it a litmus test that the new chair lower interest rates? Rates immediately, yes.
- [43:03]
Donald Trump
Oh, this guy too.
- [43:04]
Saagar Enjeti
So the economy is a plus plus plus plus. But the Federal Reserve needs to be lowering interest rates. I don't know if you're economically literate or not. If you are, that's a contradiction. But never mind. Forget it.
- [43:21]
Krystal Ball
The good news is everyone's fallen for a hoax, so it's actually all fine. You've Fallen for a hoax. This is the midterm message test. Trump gave a speech last night in Pennsylvania where he.
- [43:34]
He'S not supposed to talk about affordability being a hoax. He was like, I was told to.
- [43:38]
Saagar Enjeti
Stop saying this like tone deaf thing.
- [43:40]
Krystal Ball
Yet of course he did it. This was like, I think a 97 minute speech. I think he said at one point also that they told him not to talk about immigration. Talked about immigration.
- [43:50]
Saagar Enjeti
I just find it hard to believe they told him not to talk about immigration. What does he mean by that?
- [43:54]
Krystal Ball
I think he was supposed to, it was supposed to be focused on affordability.
- [43:57]
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, I see.
- [43:58]
Krystal Ball
It was a speech that was supposed to start undermining the Democratic Party.
- [44:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Recognize that it's a serious issue that people are concerned about. About stop calling it a hoax.
- [44:06]
Krystal Ball
And political reports. Yes, there are, there were lines in this 97 minute speech in Pennsylvania where he talked about, you know, affordability being a problem. It's like your point on this paradox of saying the economy is an A plus plus plus plus but the Fed needs to lower interest rates because people are dying out here.
- [44:28]
And at the same time you also then have to.
- [44:33]
As the Trump administration say, yes, we've had a year in office, but if you're feeling badly about the economy, that's Democrats fault for the Biden administration creating a bad economy. And it's also Democrats fault for making you think the economy like there's so many paradoxes in this.
- [44:48]
Saagar Enjeti
It's Democrats fault for creating the A economy.
- [44:52]
Krystal Ball
Right. The Biden economy was. So this is what they're going to, this is what you have to say, that the Biden economy was so bad that the economy is still bad, but also the economy is great. Those things cannot all be true.
- [45:05]
Saagar Enjeti
I've seen them talking about rates of growth and improvement and so maybe they'll start to say it's really great just for, just not for you. And that's kind of a you problem.
- [45:15]
Donald Trump
Yeah.
- [45:15]
Saagar Enjeti
It seems like everybody else is doing great. I don't know why you're feeling so badly. Let's look at the broader economic data. Oh, they're not rolling out the economic data. So they're major price indexes are not going to be coming out anytime soon. So they're delaying a lot of different data that the Fed would like to see and replacing it with Trump telling you that it's A plus plus plus plus plus.
- [45:40]
Krystal Ball
So he also called affordability a hoax twice and then said he's no longer quote, allowed to use the phrase, as we mentioned. And he whipped out this old style where he says, you don't need $37 for your daughter. Two or three is nice. Which, by the way, I agree with. It is a politically disastrous message, though, for a billionaire to be making on the campaign trail in a midterm season when people are broadly dissatisfied with the economy. So that's going to be a brutal messaging effort. They're hoping that tax cuts kick in and by the time summer rolls around, people are feeling better. But like broadly right now, people are unhappy with the tariff policies and businesses are unhappy with the tariff policies, saying that the tariffs are causing price hikes. So we're going to like. I think what we'll see is some holes poked in the tariff policy. Big picture tariff policy. I would expect, like coffee, bananas, those sorts of things to have some deals made going forward.
- [46:44]
Saagar Enjeti
I think we tried to encourage our local banana growers to increase production and encourage our American coffee producers, but apparently only the Hawaiians were willing to step up and nobody else here in the continental US And Alaska basically has produced zero coffee despite all of the tariffs.
- [47:07]
What is wrong with them? And so I think at some point you just have to recognize that the American people just aren't up to snuff when it comes to, you know, growing coffee beans. So at that point, you're going to have to back off the tariffs. But he is willing to increase tariffs on some goods. He said if we can roll this.
- [47:24]
Krystal Ball
Next one, consider more carve outs on other goods that Americans find too expensive.
- [47:28]
Donald Trump
Well, some carve outs. You mean from tariffs?
- [47:30]
Krystal Ball
From tariffs, yeah. Like coffee, like bananas.
- [47:33]
Donald Trump
And I've done that already with coffee. They're very small carve outs. It's not a big deal.
- [47:37]
Krystal Ball
So would you rule out reducing tariffs on any more goods?
- [47:42]
Donald Trump
On some and then some. I'll increase tariffs because, you know, what happens is because of tariffs, all of the car companies are coming back.
- [47:49]
Saagar Enjeti
So meanwhile, he says he's going to increase tariffs. Car companies all coming back. Manufacturing jobs have collapsed faster than any time since the financial crisis under Trump. It's actually rather shocking.
- [48:07]
The manufacturing jobs exploded under Biden and are collapsing under Trump. So.
- [48:15]
Apparently there's $20 trillion flooding. And I saw Batya saying that on the network she's on now. $20 trillion is flooding in because of tariffs. What are they doing with this $20 trillion if they're actually firing.
- [48:30]
Tens of thousands of manufacturing workers every month? Month.
- [48:34]
Krystal Ball
So reason had a good roundup. And obviously reason libertarians, you know, like tariffs, right? Hate, detest tariffs, but they had a good roundup of just the big, like the aggregate picture right now, looking at surveys of business owners and the data overall. And so that's where I think, as sympathetic as I am to the point that Batya is making, that some of this is necessary and some of this, you know, in the long term, if done correctly.
- [49:03]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. We're both sympathetic to the idea that we need a manufacturing base 100% and that we should have federal policy to encourage it 100%, including tariffs.
- [49:11]
Krystal Ball
Right. And so I'm not completely close minded to the possibility that if this continues, if these policies continue and are done really strategically in a year or two years, that the costs are worth the benefit, worth the benefits. But, but right now, these tariffs have been haphazard. The haphazardness has continued since the Liberation Day period. And that is creating an environment I don't even think is a fair test of industrial tariff, industrial policy, because.
- [49:46]
Saagar Enjeti
No, it's not.
- [49:47]
Krystal Ball
On the one hand, yes, there is some leverage for Trump being the kind of madman Nixon figure where you don't actually know what he's going to do. You just hope that different companies are betting on the U.S. they got these big tax breaks for manufacturing and all of that, but that actually has to work in the long term. And so far, prices are higher and manufacturing jobs are continuing to slip and manufacturing is part of GDP, is still not going.
- [50:16]
Saagar Enjeti
Right.
- [50:16]
Krystal Ball
So.
- [50:17]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. And it seems like the main reason for that is that if you manufacture something here in the United states.
- [50:25]
There'S a 99% chance that significant amounts of your inputs come from overseas.
- [50:32]
And there was no accounting made for that in the tariff policy. So the idea would be, okay, well, then you're going to encourage domestic manufacturers to make those inputs, but in the meantime, the American companies are just going out of business. And so then there's no incentive to have the inputs made domestically because your customers are out of business.
- [51:03]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [51:04]
Saagar Enjeti
Or they moved overseas where they don't have to pay the tariffs.
- [51:07]
Krystal Ball
So Jameson Greer, obviously the Trade Representative, U.S. trade Representative, and this is, I'm reading from the Eric Bain piece in Reason that I just referenced, referenced, said he gave two points or two ambitions of the tariff strategy, two metrics by which you could judge the tariff strategy. He says the trade deficit needs to go in the right direction and manufacturing as a share of GDP needs to go in the right direction. Now, you may agree or disagree with those as metrics, but they're what the administration has set for itself. Boehm notes. From January through July, America's trade deficit was 840 billion. So it was about 23% larger than during the same month, months in 2024. And now he's saying. Also Boehm is arguing, and I think these are pretty persuasive numbers, the manufacturing sector is being crushed by tariffs. He says monthly surveys by the Institute for Supply Management show that overall manufacturing activity has declined for seven consecutive months through September. So that's brutal for the aggregate picture because the administration has listed all of these examples of manufacturing being brought back to the U.S. the Wall Street Journal highlighted this fascinating example of Sharpie, which bet on the US Opened this factory in Tennessee, brought new jobs to Tennessee. But then you have the separate survey that Bain points out. This is from the Dallas Federal Reserve in August found just 2.1% of business owners believe the tariffs had a positive impact. And in manufacturing, 70% of firms said they had negative impacts. 70% of firms said they had negative impacts from the tariffs. So the aggregate picture as of right now, December 2025, what, eight months after liberation Day, is not what the administration would want to see. It's not meeting their own goals at this point at all. And so they're going to have to in the new year, I would think, Ryan, make sharp, significant, dramatic changes to their policies.
- [53:00]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, and I think I might have said a year ago that one guess I had is that he might just tank the economy for a year and then lift the tariffs.
- [53:12]
With enough time into the midterms that you've got the economy growing again.
- [53:15]
Krystal Ball
And it feels like he did it.
- [53:17]
Saagar Enjeti
He'S on his way. So we'll now.
- [53:18]
Krystal Ball
No, no, but like it would feel to consumers like this was a Trump.
- [53:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Because it felt like, yeah, like things are getting better, prices are going down. Because he lifted the tariffs.
- [53:25]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [53:26]
Saagar Enjeti
That'd be really funny. And then he puts them right back on in like January.
- [53:31]
Destroys the economy for another year, and then heading into the presidential election, lifts them again.
- [53:35]
Krystal Ball
Can.
- [53:37]
Saagar Enjeti
And can just do his own. It's a way of doing your own kind of economic policy without having to deal with Congress the same way. He's like taking tariff money and.
- [53:48]
His tariff policy is destroying the farms, and then he's giving the farmers a giant bailout. Meanwhile, he's betting the entire House on AI and so let's take a look from more perfect union of what, what AI is doing with the money that we're funneling to them. Walk into any grocery store and on average, everything is about 30% more expensive than it was in 2020. Inflation, supply chains, tariffs. We've Heard it all. But what if something else is happening, Something intentional?
- [54:19]
Krystal Ball
What if someone has charged $2 for.
- [54:21]
Donald Trump
These eggs, but another person has charged.
- [54:23]
Saagar Enjeti
$240 at the same exact store and it's pushing prices up. Five months ago, a researcher reached out to me about Instacart. She'd been studying their Washington D.C. workforce. Different pay for nearly identical work.
- [54:37]
If they do this to workers, what about consumers? Five months of digging, what we found is bigger than Instacart. Yes, inflation is real, but something else has been pushing prices higher this whole time. There's a system, one that grocery stores and tech companies built together.
- [54:52]
Krystal Ball
It.
- [54:53]
Saagar Enjeti
So you, you're an Instacart user?
- [54:56]
Krystal Ball
I am sort of ashamed to say that, but yes, I use Instacart way.
- [54:59]
Saagar Enjeti
More than tens of millions of people are using Instacart.
- [55:01]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean they definitely maybe, you know, they mess with the prices. Yeah. But it's, it's, it's a little bit embarrassing because I'm trading the convenience of having the groceries delivered to my door for in some cases definitely higher prices than if you actually just walked into the store.
- [55:15]
Saagar Enjeti
So you think they are doing this dynamic pricing? Quite clearly, yeah.
- [55:19]
Krystal Ball
I think it's pretty obvious that they are. I saw Robby tweeting in response to that this some person on the left was posting the More Perfect Union video and Ravi said, hilarious. Watching a lefty discover that the labor theory of value is indeed wrong. Price is determined by what you're willing to pay, not what it costs to make news. You can use Rabi Suave, of course, of Reason and the Hill and it's like, yeah, yes, of course that's what's happening here. Doesn't mean that it's moral or good if they are price gouging. I mean, price gouging is, you know, is not defensible after a certain level and on certain goods. I mean, like I would pay Martin Shkreli my life savings for a life saving treatment. Doesn't mean he should be able to charge me 3,000% of what it costs to make that life saving treatment or that he should do it.
- [56:13]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. Basically what Robbie wants is the entire global economy to operate like a Bangkok market for tourists, where the tourists come in there and the price you pay is based on what the seller thinks he can extract from you and what your ability to kind of fool them and your desperation level. They want to take, take mass surveillance so that they can figure out how desperate you are for whatever particular product or service is on offer and how much money you can pay toward that, how much credit you have, how much willingness you have to lay out that credit, throw that into their algorithm, and then produce the maximum price that they think they can extract from you. You. That is a libertarian dream.
- [57:11]
Krystal Ball
Yes, truly.
- [57:12]
Saagar Enjeti
And we're living in that nightmare.
- [57:15]
Krystal Ball
I mean, yeah, the instacart and dynamic pricing is testing the libertarian dream in real time. I sent a story to you guys the other day. We didn't verify it's accurate, but it sounds very accurate. But take this for what you will. It was like one of the D.C. local blogs. Someone pulled into a parking garage and the dynamic pricing had the charge at $28 by the time they left. And I don't know how that worked, if they. If it was the price was in flux when you pulled in or whatever. But the dynamic pricing stuff happening in real time is going to suck so hard. Suck so hard. Because if you're organizing your life around particular prices, which is what people who live paycheck to paycheck, which is most of the country actually do. For example, this part of my routine, I go to Wendy's for coffee and breakfast because it costs X amount of money that I've budgeted. Well, if Wendy's does dynamic pricing and changes that part of your budget, yes, you're going to have to change. But it's just going to piss people off. Like, I mean, talk about class consciousness. That's going to spark some real backlash.
- [58:25]
Saagar Enjeti
Yep. And put up C4 here. Despite the economy cruising at this A.
- [58:35]
Rating, the bankruptcies are at their highest rate since the great financial crisis, which is weird. That must be poor personal decision making on the part of a lot of Americans, given that Trump has gifted you with this incredible economy.
- [58:53]
So a lot of people participating in this hoax here.
- [58:57]
Krystal Ball
The politics of this, obviously, the administration is realizing, are a nightmare. And that's why they sent Trump to Pennsylvania last night to deliver the speech where he said he wasn't allowed to call affordability a hoax and has did it multiple times. So they're going to have to put their heads together in the new year about this midterm cycle, because this, you know, when you have something like Jake Sherman reported, maybe 20 House members, Republican House members, contemplating retirement.
- [59:26]
They could be. They could be looking at a bloodbath.
- [59:28]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And Matt Van Epps, who beat Afton Bain recently, basically almost never talked about Trump. Like, if one thing you're noticing in a lot of these elections is that Trump is where he used to be helpful, and having him on the ballot was useful. That's not that Republicans don't take it from me, take it from Republicans. Republicans don't think that's the case anymore. But Susie Wiles. So I have bad news for those Republicans. Suzy Wiles went on, what is this, the mom view? She's the, I think, soon to be former White House chief of staff saying that he's gonna party like it's 2024.
- [60:06]
Krystal Ball
Typically, in the midterms, it's not about who's sitting at the White House. It's, you localize the election.
- [60:14]
And you keep the federal officials out of it. We're actually going to turn that on its head.
- [60:18]
Saagar Enjeti
Good.
- [60:19]
Krystal Ball
And put him on the ballot. Because so many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters. Yes, they are. And we saw a week ago Tuesday what happens when he's not on the ballot and not active. So I haven't quite broken it to him yet, but he's going to campaign like it's 2024 again for all these people that he helps. He doesn't help everybody. But for those he does, he's a difference maker and he's certainly a turnout machine. So the midterms will be very important to us. He'll work very hard to keep the, keep the majority and he'll use himself and he'll use his money that he's raised, probably his money too. And, and, and nobody can outwork him. So there's every reason to be confident, but we have to actually get it done.
- [61:08]
Saagar Enjeti
So I think Democrats are pretty excited at the idea that Trump will be out on the campaign trail constantly saying that affordability is a hoax. However, can we confirm that that's even a show? What is this mom view thing?
- [61:19]
Krystal Ball
I like how they're like permanently stuck in 2002. It seems like they're trapped in 2002.
- [61:24]
Saagar Enjeti
Including with their audio.
- [61:25]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that was rough. I don't know what that is. But for Susie Wiles, I think the strategy of sending Trump everywhere during the midterms is because you can see the wisdom in that Trump motivates a section of the GOP base to vote. And without him on the ballot, Republicans really suffer. And a lot of people took that as a lesson from what just happened in the off year cycle. Now, that happened in 2018. It's happened consistently since Trump has been the leader of the Republican Party, that midterm elections, off year elections are real struggles for Republicans. So the wisdom of having Trump on the campaign trail is that you're motivating the Trump coalition, which other candidates have still never figured out how to replicate. The only person who really has is maybe Glenn Youngkin in Virginia in a very particular, a very particular time. But without Trump, you have this massive advantage for Democrats because their coalition votes in midterms and off your elections. We're going to talk about this later in the show because it's increasingly affluent and increasingly motivated to vote. And the opposite of true is true of Republicans. So if you have the affluent voters who are highly motivated, highly plugged into the news cycle coming out during the midterms, they're going to be more likely to vote for Democrats now and the Republicans who like Trump but don't like the Republican Party. On average, those types of voters that you need to make up the difference in the middle, they're not going to come out for your average Joe Chamber of Commerce.
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- [65:19]
Saagar Enjeti
We have some evidence of that last night. We have some good news for Republicans yesterday we'll get to in a second, but some bad news as well. We can put up C6 here. So Trump won Miami by like 21 or 22 points or something like that. A real blowout in the exact same area. Democrats won in a landslide. I think it was like a 22 point swing or something.
- [65:47]
Trump is plummeting with young people, plummeting with Hispanic voters.
- [65:54]
Including in Miami, which is sometimes, which is a different set of Hispanic voters than the rest of the country. You put up C7. There were also elections elsewhere around the country. So you had a. Throughout Florida, you had the old villages.
- [66:15]
Krystal Ball
Brian's old stomping grounds.
- [66:17]
Saagar Enjeti
You had in each of these special elections, you had.
- [66:22]
15 to 20 point swings.
- [66:26]
While you're chatting, I can pull up a couple others because there were other elections that had everywhere from 10 to 30. They flipped. One in a very rural district with a candidate who had lost by like 20 plus points. He won yesterday in like a House, you know, state House, like special election.
- [66:49]
So the same pattern we're seeing.
- [66:53]
The same pattern we saw in Tennessee and that we've seen in other special elections can continue.
- [66:58]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, absolutely. It feels a lot like 2018 doesn't feel new, but it does feel a lot like 2018 for Democrats. Now they were on actually it might even be a more powerful cycle for Democrats because then we'll remember those campaigns were so focused on Russia, collusion and Russia in general and trying to kind of muster this resistance spirit to the question of Trump, like shattering norms and all of that. What we're going to talk about now.
- [67:28]
Saagar Enjeti
I think, oh, it was Georgia, by the way, Georgia.
- [67:31]
Krystal Ball
And you know those we talked about.
- [67:33]
Saagar Enjeti
Trump +12 district and Democrats flipped it.
- [67:36]
Krystal Ball
About a month ago. We were talking about these random down ballot races, local elections in Georgia where because of data centers, in some cases Democrats were winning. It's now a pattern, obviously now a pattern, which is why Susie Wiles is talking about how Donald Trump is going to campaign like it's 2020 in the 2026 midterms. But in 2018, Democrats had this like, they had this plan to campaign almost. I don't want to call it fully cultural, but it was kind of this cultural question of rejecting Trumpism and rejecting collusion with Russia, rejecting what Trump stood for. And that helped motivate the base. It didn't help in presidential cycles. I mean, I guess it helped in 2020, although I still think that it's kind of difficult to say what really like, in terms of what put Biden over the edge. There's the COVID question, of course. Would Trump have won if it weren't Covid? I don't know. But all that is to say Trump comes back after the lawfare and claims this bigger victory than before in 2024. And the problem for Republicans isn't that Trump can't get elected. It's probably his last term. The problem is none of the.
- [69:01]
Other Republicans are Trump. And that's where, for example, we can put C8 up on the screen. This is a report from notice the nrsc, so the National Republican Senatorial Committee, according to notice. And I confirmed this actually this morning, ran a, quote, astroturf recruitment process to push Jasmine Crockett into the Texas Senate race. Ryan, you said they robocalled high propensity. Democrats urged them to call Jasmine Crockett's office, then connected the caller to the office. They pushed polls suggesting that she would win. Crockett believed this hype and then launched her run, which is completely predictable. It's why the NRC was like, this is going to be super cheap and will give us Jasmine Crockett to run against in all of these different races around the country. It's not just about Texas where they feel fine about John Cornyn. I'm sure they'd rather. I'm sure they would rather run with Cornyn than ken Paxton.
- [69:54]
Saagar Enjeti
They 100% want Cornyn, but he's losing now, right?
- [69:58]
Krystal Ball
Well, we'll see. I mean, there's a question of whether Crockett getting in makes Paxton's life easier because he can say character is probably not going to be on the ballot.
- [70:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, yeah, because Paxton can win.
- [70:08]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, he might say something like that. But either way, Republicans feel pretty comfortable in Texas is my sense of it. You know, they've never been last 10 years super comfortable, but they feel pretty comfortable.
- [70:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Were they nervous if it was going to be.
- [70:24]
The, like Colin, all right, the little white guy or Colin Allred.
- [70:27]
Krystal Ball
Oh, Talarico. I think Talarico makes them nervous for sure. I don't know that. I haven't confirmed that, really. It's just. I know it's crazy. I think that maybe they're buying into the hype of Talarico. Going on.
- [70:39]
Saagar Enjeti
But him against Paxton. Cornyn wins, I think, easily, right?
- [70:42]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I think so. Talarico against Paxton would be really interesting because Talarico could plausibly make a character argument against Paxton, who has character. Character scandals in his past.
- [70:56]
Saagar Enjeti
He's a character. But you're a Christian. Does the fact that, like.
- [71:00]
Krystal Ball
Absolutely not.
- [71:02]
No.
- [71:03]
Saagar Enjeti
He feels like a Democrat's version of a, like, Christian.
- [71:07]
Krystal Ball
That's exactly right. Of an evangelical Christian. Yeah, that's exactly right. He doesn't speak the language of evangelical Christianity. He speaks the language of. Of, like, which of my kind.
- [71:15]
Saagar Enjeti
Like the social justice. Like.
- [71:18]
Krystal Ball
I mean, I would of course argue that Christianity is predicated on social justice. But what you're saying is this, like this kind of niche, politicized social justice. And I don't mean politicized in a pejorative sense. I mean that it has a political connotation. The language has a political connotation. And it's a very different language than what your average Texas evangelical speaks. And so. So the media sees Talarico and D.C. people see Talarico talking about scripture and they're like, oh, do we have something here? This guy could really give conservative Christians a run for their money. And it's like, nobody is buying that as their own, like, one of their own. So it's. Yeah, I think it's kind of a D.C. phenomenon. But Republicans are not immune to that at all. You know, people sitting at the nrsc, I definitely would find that compelling, I think.
- [72:09]
Saagar Enjeti
And so Crockett announced that she was running yesterday in her announcement speech. She said that she saw the poll. She saw herself rising in the polls.
- [72:17]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [72:17]
Saagar Enjeti
And so let's linger for a second on what the Republicans pulled off here. And that's interesting that you were able to confirm it. I'd be curious if you get from your source whether they also ran a, like, bot reply campaign. Like if, like, oh, interesting. If I were them, what I would do is every time Crockett would tweet.
- [72:34]
Krystal Ball
Because, you know, she's online.
- [72:35]
Saagar Enjeti
You know, she's online, hyper online, checking her replies. Just reply, you need to run for Senate. Run for Senate. This brilliant tweet. Go get him now. Run for Senate. So what they did, Crockett was not in the polls that were comparing the. That were in the Democratic polls or the head to heads. So the NRSC ran a poll asking, you know, putting Crockett in.
- [72:57]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [72:58]
Saagar Enjeti
It's clever. Nobody had been talking about it.
- [73:00]
Krystal Ball
It was like, nobody nrc.
- [73:02]
Saagar Enjeti
And she's popular, like, among the Democratic Base. And so polls showed, oh, wow, she's looking actually pretty good. So they pushed that poll to all the. All the press, and they get some coverage around it. And then future pollsters said, well, okay, well, now Crockett's in the press. Right. We'll include her in our poll, too. And so she consistently performed well.
- [73:21]
Krystal Ball
And her name recognition is way higher than random state. Right. Assembly number.
- [73:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Totally. And so then. And there's this technology, you've maybe been on the receiving end of it, where you robocall. You get a voter file with like. And you can say, like, who are the big Democratic activists in this? Give me 100,000 democratic activists. You robocall them and say, you know, we're from X sounding nice group.
- [73:49]
Jasmine Crockett should run for Senate. Like, if you agree, press one, press one. Would you like to call Jasmine Crockett's office and urge her to run for Senate? If so, press 2 or whatever. So you press 2, and then right there on the phone, they connect you with the office. And so the office is talking to a genuine human being who genuinely wants Jasmine Crockett. But they were never going to call if the NRC hadn't reached out and prodded them to do it. So then at the end of every day, Crockett and I sympathize with her on this front. She's getting these reports from her staff. Like, we're getting flooded with phone calls from constituents who really say that you should run for Senate. Now, Democrats have done this Pied Piper type stuff to Republicans, and sometimes it works, and they get a terrible candidate in there. Well, Democrats push Trump, for example, and sometimes it backfires. And sometimes, even when it doesn't work, you increase the nastiness and the polarization by cementing a particular type of. By artificially cementing a particular type of candidate. Because now Crockett will have the support of her own base, plus she'll have Republican support out there, because then the Republicans have said that they're going to fund some independent expenditures.
- [75:13]
So outside groups are going to be out there attacking Talarico.
- [75:22]
And boosting Crockett. Paid for by Republicans.
- [75:25]
Krystal Ball
Right, right. I mean, the point of running Jasmine Crockett or the point of nudging Jasmine Crockett into the race isn't even just about Texas. It's about having this worked really successfully for Republicans in 2010 when it came to Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi. It's kind of laughable to, again, like, Beltway types. Like, oh, really? You're running fire Pelosi ad campaigns. But when you're tying a San Francisco liberal to, let's say, a Talarico type candidate in a red state, that's actually pretty effective. And so if you're going to tie Jasmine Crockett, who has said that, what was it? Latinos who vote for Trump have a slave mentality. I mean, she said all kinds of just reckless stuff because she reminds me of Jennifer Welch in this sense. There's this vacuum of Democrats willing to break rhetorical norms in the same way that Trump does. And so they stepped into that void. But they're not necessarily, like, going to be persuasive figures to swing voters. And so Democrats lack the person that can do both. Both. They lack the person that's willing to violate rhetorical norms, like Trump has done, and like voters are happy to see them do, but then also be appealing to swing voters. I think Graham Platner is the best example of somebody who actually does that very well.
- [76:38]
Saagar Enjeti
He's doing that now. AOC in 2018 did that in the way that Bernie does that for sure. In 2020. The way that she would with, like, her, like, constant presence on Instagram and her Twitter clapbacks.
- [76:50]
Krystal Ball
Yes.
- [76:50]
Saagar Enjeti
When that was a thing. Yeah.
- [76:52]
Krystal Ball
Although that. Crockett takes that to another level and Walsh takes that to another level. And I think Welch isn't running for anything. So it's apples and oranges in that case, but I just think they're. Crockett is the Crockett rhetoric when it's. If it were, I think, clever and smart, which it often isn't when you're just accusing people of taking money from Jeffrey Richardson.
- [77:13]
Saagar Enjeti
But it's well done.
- [77:13]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [77:14]
Saagar Enjeti
Like the butch thing that she rolled out mtg, I couldn't pull that off. No, it was masterful.
- [77:21]
Krystal Ball
You believe. She believes what she says when she's talking about some of that stuff now when she's talking about crypto. Ryan, you reported this in your book. I don't know that she really believes anything.
- [77:30]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, the substance doesn't match the rhetorical norm breaking. She. And also in 2020, she celebrated herself for not taking corporate PAC money compared to her opponent. Within months of that, started taking corporate PAC money. Has taken like over 300,000 now in corporate PAC money since she's been in Congress. Yes. She's gotten millions in support from. From, from crypto. Yeah. In my book, I reported that basically the, the campaign was like, look, we might get attacked by these crypto people. How should we handle this? She's like, well, what's what are the options? They're like, well, if here's the crypto plank, like, here's. Here's what they want you to say.
- [78:10]
Krystal Ball
She was like, how much does it cost?
- [78:11]
Saagar Enjeti
If you say this, like, they will support you and give you money. If you don't say this.
- [78:17]
They will come after you. And she's like, she's a very much what do I have to do? Kind of candidate. She's like, okay, fine, I'm not running. And to give her, like, the steel man on this, it's like, she doesn't care about crypto, right? And a lot of people don't, right? It's like, so she's like, whatever. Like, who cares?
- [78:34]
Krystal Ball
How much does it cost?
- [78:35]
Saagar Enjeti
Just sign the. Whatever they say they want. Just because if I don't sign it, they're going to nuke me. Because they were going around nuking everybody, right? That was like. Like remotely like questioning crypto so you can justify it to yourself, well, I'll never get into Congress to do the good things I care about if I take a stand on this thing that I frankly, honestly don't care about.
- [78:55]
Krystal Ball
No big deal.
- [78:56]
Saagar Enjeti
She also does similar on Israel, like, 2023, took an AIPAC funded trip, has consistently voted to send weapons to Israel, and there's some clips going viral now of defending our allyship with Israel. So. So you get the kind of squad like rhetoric.
- [79:17]
But it's not matched with any type of policy that would challenge corporate power.
- [79:24]
Krystal Ball
For more, check out Ryan Groom's TikTok.
- [79:26]
Saagar Enjeti
There you go.
- [79:26]
Krystal Ball
So we'll be remiss if we didn't play a little snippet here from Brad Lander's announcement video. He is challenging Dan Goldman. Let's take a look.
- [79:39]
Hi, Brad. Good morning.
- [79:42]
Saagar Enjeti
Great to see you.
- [79:45]
This community means everything to me. It's where Meg and I raised Marek and Rosa and where we've worked together for years to make life better for our neighbors.
- [79:55]
Krystal Ball
Brad rooted out waste and corruption, divested billions and fossil fuels, built housing New.
- [80:00]
Saagar Enjeti
Yorkers can afford, saved 50,000 families from.
- [80:04]
Donald Trump
Being kicked out of their homes.
- [80:05]
Saagar Enjeti
When Donald Trump. Trump and Elon Musk tried to steal $80 million from New York City, Brad caught it. And when ICE agents started kidnapping our neighbors, I fought back.
- [80:19]
Donald Trump
Keep fighting, Brad.
- [80:23]
Saagar Enjeti
Take a look at this video. It's Brad Lander being arrested by ice. I've always believed that you fight for.
- [80:30]
Krystal Ball
The things you love. And I love this city.
- [80:34]
Saagar Enjeti
I love the streets where I walked my kids to school, the public schools that nurtured their Curiosity the fields in Prospect park where I coach their little league games. But most of all, I love the people who make this city what it is. So I'm running for Congress because the.
- [80:54]
Krystal Ball
Challenges we face can't be solved with.
- [80:57]
Saagar Enjeti
Strongly worded letters or high dollar fundraisers and not by doing Apex bidding. In a district that knows our safety, our freedom, our thriving is bound up together. Our mayor can have an ally in Washington instead of an adversary in his own backyard. At a moment of dark oppression, we can shine.
- [81:20]
Krystal Ball
Ryan, you know brand Brad Lander, we had him on the show actually not too long ago. What do you make of this announcement?
- [81:26]
Saagar Enjeti
This is a very welcome announcement to the kind of Mamdani coalition. Mamdani immediately endorsed Bernie Sanders has endorsed Yulin Nu who came within like a point or two of beating Dan Goldman the first time he ran. Was running again and she dropped out and she put up a heartfelt thread that I encourage people to go find where she said, look, we lost last time because the left did not consolidate. You had Mondair Jones build a Blasio which a lot of people forget.
- [81:59]
Krystal Ball
I totally forgot.
- [82:00]
Saagar Enjeti
And you, Lynn knew all splitting the vote and it allowed Dan Goldman, Levi Strauss heir to spend his own fortune and kind of stumble to victory with like 30 what you know, because it's first past the post, you don't have to do a runoff. So he. So with a divided opposition, Goldman was able to get in. And so what you and new is signaling is that everybody should get out and let this be a one on one Goldman versus Lander. And if Goldman can spend an enormous amount of money because he has it and can raise it. But Lander's going to be able to raise small dollars too from the Bernie wing of the party. So I think this is Lander's to lose.
- [82:45]
Krystal Ball
Man, this is going to be one to follow a couple. Yeah. I think Crockett vs Talarico is also just an interesting test of the different strands. And Democratic Party right now you have Talarico running sort of Biden with maybe a slightly more Bernie aligned. I don't even know if you can say that because he's also a big APAC guy. He took money from Miriam Adelson, I believe. I don't know the particulars of the APAC connection, but yeah.
- [83:07]
Saagar Enjeti
And when it's Goldman's, his move would be to say that criticism of his support for Israel is anti Semitic.
- [83:15]
Krystal Ball
Oh, he'll definitely do that.
- [83:17]
Saagar Enjeti
Telling that to Brad Lander, the highest ranking Jewish elected official in New York supported by Bernie Sanders, the most famous Jewish elected official from New York, isn't going to land the same way it's going to land against Imam Dani.
- [83:29]
Krystal Ball
It's just not especially post Sauron. Yeah, and with Tahriki you have this almost Biden style. We will restore norms and civility and Crockett is the opposite. It but their populism is reversed. Like you have this interesting if these are the two character traits you have kind of populism, at least Talarico kind of runs and tries to make people think he's populist. We would probably disagree with that characterization and love of norms versus non populism and hatred of norms. You're sort of switching. It's like a little bit of an interesting role reversal. So these are some really interesting tests coming up for Democrats.
- [84:22]
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