12/11/25: Trump Seizes Venezuela Tanker, Trump Voter Rebellion Over Failures

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: 12/11/25 - Trump Seizes Venezuela Tanker, Trump Voter Rebellion Over Failures
Date: December 11, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into two main stories shaping U.S. political discourse:

1. The Trump administration's dramatic escalation in Venezuela, marked by the first U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker in over a decade, and the broader regime change ambitions underlying this move.
2. Growing dissatisfaction among Trump’s own base, particularly in response to economic struggles and unfulfilled policy promises, as reflected in new polling and anecdotal evidence.

The show weaves these headline stories into wider issues of foreign policy, economic reality for regular Americans, and the bipartisan consensus—or complicity—that underpins U.S. actions abroad.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Tanker: Context and Implications

• [09:29–15:12] Saagar & Krystal contextualize the U.S. military’s seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker bound for Cuba.

  • Saagar breaks down the action’s magnitude: “It is the first oil tanker seized by the United States in 11 years, since 2014… just to contextualize again how crazy it is to actually do something like this.” (10:50)
  • Trump’s rhetoric is explicit about escalation: “President Trump saying that we will potentially actually keep the oil. All of this is part of a concerted effort to cut the Maduro regime off from any of its oil revenues and to continue the sanctions pressure.” (11:14)
  • The action is positioned by the hosts as the overt start of a regime change campaign—one in which military, economic, and covert means combine.

• Threats to Colombia and regional escalation

  • Trump issues a warning to Colombia’s President Petro: “He better wise up or he'll be next too.” (12:22)

• Maria Machado’s dramatic escape

  • Krystal relays reporting on opposition leader Maria Machado’s heavily U.S.-supported secret exit: “She was provided U.S. military escort. Two fighter jets actually came closer to Venezuelan airspace than ever before…” (13:18)
  • This timing suggests coordination and escalatory intent from the U.S.

2. Motivations and Hypocrisy in U.S. Foreign Policy

• Ideological, not practical, motivation:

  • Krystal criticizes the lack of pretext: “We’re finally abandoning the pretense of drug trafficking. This is 100% ideological. This was a Venezuelan oil tanker bound for Cuba. It’s like a Miami neocon wet dream.” (17:17)
  • Saagar and Krystal point out U.S. hypocrisy: “We would consider that an act of war…certainly the Venezuelans will consider this an act of war.” (13:39)

• Monroe Doctrine Misapplied

  • Krystal on D.C. foreign policy thinking: “The vast majority of these Trump people who are like, the Monroe Doctrine—you learned about it in AP US history at age 16. You don’t know anything about the Monroe Doctrine.” (19:20)

• Economic interests vs. ideological wars

  • Saagar: “Maduro goes, ‘I don’t care about Russia and China, man. This is out of convenience. They’re willing to buy my oil. If you buy it, I’ll sell it to you, no problem.’” (21:21)

3. Escalation Risks & D.C. Consensus

• Both parties complicit:

  • Krystal: “This is a bipartisan story and any honest telling of it ignores that…Chuck Schumer, all these people, they buy the fundamental premise of regime change in Venezuela.” (26:32)

• Systemic hypocrisy and risks of escalation:

  • They repeatedly highlight how U.S. leaders would never tolerate such actions if done to America (34:13); how “bipartisan elite support” ignores public dislike for endless war (38:28); and how this could spiral into another Iraq or Libya-style disaster (36:14, 39:04).

• Danger of public apathy and media distraction

  • Krystal: “Unfortunately it’s not receiving nearly the amount of attention it deserves. They are counting on everyone to just look the other way...and then it’ll explode out on this.” (39:35)

Notable Quotes

• On U.S. foreign policy arrogance:
  Saagar: “People in D.C. just never learn from the mistakes of the past. They still have in their head, like, oh, we’ve got a 50 day plan and we know what to do and it’s gonna go so easily and it’s gonna be mission accomplished.” (22:11)
• On the elite-vs-people divide:
  Saagar: “This is why I am fundamentally a populist. Because look at where the elites are and the insane shit they talk themselves into…And then look at the polls…majority of Americans…not on board with Venezuela regime change. We don’t want any of this. What are you doing?” (38:28)
• On the bipartisan war machine:
  Krystal: “Anytime people on both sides of the aisle are all standing up to cheer something…we’re in trouble.” (26:32)

4. Economic Reality and Voter Discontent

• Trump’s economic promises vs. reality

  • Trump touts falling prices and “unleashing American energy...clean, beautiful coal” (46:14), but Krystal and Saagar eviscerate these claims.

• Fed Rate Cut: A Weak Signal

  • Krystal and Saagar analyze the Federal Reserve’s modest quarter-point rate cut, interpreting it as a move under pressured, ambiguous data (49:16).

• Cost of Living Crunch

  • Saagar: “Nearly half of Americans said they find groceries, utility bills, health care, housing and transportation difficult to afford. The number one issue...was actually groceries.” (53:03)
  • Over a quarter have skipped medical care due to cost (53:41).

• Travel and the shrinking American Dream:

  • “46% say they can’t pay for a vacation that involves air travel” (54:17)
  • Krystal: “It is cheaper to go to...Tokyo Disney than it is to go to Disney World…you are, it is orders of magnitude cheaper to go to Tokyo Disney.” (60:56)

• Trump base dissatisfaction—Trump Voter Speaks Out

  • A Trump-supporting woman (Jones), struggling with rising daycare and basic expenses, says: “He has simply failed to keep his promise to lower the cost of living. I’m very let down by that...I feel like it’s only gotten worse.” (65:54–66:32)

Notable Quotes

• On economic disconnect:
  Saagar: “Trump is trying to sell the American people...the economy’s A plus plus plus plus plus…but their experience of it is wildly, dramatically divergent from that sentiment.” (62:26)
• On the universality of economic frustration:
  Krystal: “You can never convince somebody who is financially struggling that they’re actually doing better than they are. They have to feel it. And that comes from a vibe.” (50:58)

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Notable Segments & Timestamps

• [09:29] Venezuela Tanker Seizure— Context, Action, Trump’s Statement
• [15:12] U.S. and Maria Machado’s Secret Escape, U.S. Financing Opposition
• [22:11] Saagar on Pattern of Foreign Policy Arrogance, Resulting Instability
• [26:32] Bipartisan Buy-in for Regime Change, Democratic Complicity
• [34:13] Risks of Escalation—Perspective on How U.S. Would Respond
• [38:28] Populist Critique—Elite Support vs Public Opposition
• [46:08] Trump Economic Speech—Promises vs. Reality
• [48:17] Fed Rate Cut & Analysis
• [53:03] Affordability Crisis—Poll-Driven Breakdown
• [65:54] Trump Voter: Personal Testimony on Betrayed Economic Hopes

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Krystal on U.S. hypocrisy:
  “Part of this is also, we’re finally abandoning the pretense of drug trafficking…this is 100% ideological. This was a Venezuelan oil tanker bound for Cuba…it’s like a Miami neocon wet dream.” (17:17)
• Saagar on the elite/public gap:
  “This is why I am fundamentally a populist. Because look at where the elites are…and then look at the polls…and in spite of all the…propaganda…majority of Americans…are not on board.” (38:28)
• Trump voter on failed promises:
  “He has simply failed to keep his promise to lower the cost of living. I’m very let down by that…feel like it’s only gotten worse.” (66:19)

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Takeaway

Krystal and Saagar deliver a scathing, detail-rich critique of bipartisan American foreign policy, highlighting the mounting human and geopolitical costs, and connecting these imperial maneuvers directly to failing economic realities at home. The episode stands as both a warning and a call for scrutiny, with hosts highlighting how actions abroad are not only ideologically driven and hypocritical, but are ignored or accepted by establishment politicians and the public—until, inevitably, the consequences land on American doorsteps.

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For a full experience, explore the in-depth discussions starting at [09:29] for the Venezuela segment and [45:56] for the economic deep dive.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

Hey guys, Sagar and Kristal here.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Krystal Ball]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media. And we hope to see you@breaking points.com.

Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday, right? Thursday.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Indeed we do. That's how that goes. We seized a Venezuelan oil tanker and Trump is promising more to come. So lot to dig into there. Also we got the announcement for from the Fed. They are cutting rates a quarter of a point amidst other economic fallout. We also have Republicans in complete disarray on health care, very messy situation. And some interesting bullet points that they released about some of the various ideas that they are considering amidst a bit of a like, I guess moderate or centrist Republican revolt over a desire to extend those ACA subsidies. Sam Altman is apparently using ChatGPT to raise his baby. That doesn't seem like a great idea to me. Got some other AI news as well. The Washington Post is launching a new AI podcast feature. So future is here, guys, whether we like it or not. New details have emerged about Jeffrey Epstein's relationship with Les Wexner and with Israel as well. This is more great reporting from Dropsite, from Ryan and Maz over there. And we've got a political sea change in Miami. Juan David Rojas is going to join us to talk about that. That one was really interesting to me. I'm talking about the Miami mayor's race because Miami has become such a sort of like epicenter of right wing tech and even the podcast world. It was really emblematic of this right wing shift, especially among Latinos. And so you now have a Democratic flip by quite a considerable margin. So I'm really interested to hear from Juan about what this all means.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, especially in the context of Venezuela and everything else that's going on. We had a.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He's very insightful.

[Krystal Ball]

First, Miami Democratic governor, governor, mayor of Miami in 30 years is pretty astounding, really. And he lives there, so he'll break all of that down for us. Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing BreakingPoints.com for our premium members. We have some exciting holiday content that all of us are filming right now. I believe I have previewed this, but this week officially we'll be filming and it'll be released over the holidays. First, for our premium subscribers, I will be doing with Griffin a review, a full review, professional review of Reefer Madness, how it holds up nearly 100 years later, perhaps one of the most influential films of the 20th century. So excited to do that. Crystal, you've got an interview.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Line up. Yeah, we Also have some non weed content. Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

It's not just.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We've got that. That'll be. I'm looking forward to that. I actually recorded an interview yesterday with the author of a book called Gilded Rage, Elon Musk and the Radicalization of Silicon Valley. I think that's the full title. And obviously what could be more pertinent to the moment that we're living through right now, both in terms of how we got here and where we may be going. So that was really good. And Emily and Ryan interviewed each other.

[Krystal Ball]

Personal favorite.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. So which I'm definitely excited like digging into their backgrounds and I don't know, I haven't watched them yet but I think pushing them on different issues and really trying to get to the core of their political ideology. They did be really fun.

[Krystal Ball]

Confrontational interviews of each other took turns separately. It's exciting. It's exciting.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Definitely. They also little update dominated the big tech debate yesterday. The reason big tech debate overwhelming victory even on the libertarians home turf for the side that big tech is in fact net bad. I don't know.

[Krystal Ball]

I have the vote on the other.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Side at this point but the vote.

[Krystal Ball]

Margin was 51.3% does more harm, 38% does more good. And undecided. Undecided 10.7%. So we're sorry for anybody debate like.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That and not pick a side, you're a loser.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, I'll say it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Anybody put those in Emily Ryan's.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, exactly. 100%. That's, that's, that's in our. So that means we dominated by two thirds. That's what we do over here. So thank you all very much. Breakingpoints.com if you can't, no worries. Please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to this on a podcast, send an episode to a friend or rate us 5 stars. Really helps other people find the show. And it is always fun to see all the data, all the. I think we charted in like 91 different countries, which is amazing to me.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, that's incredible.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it's crazy. I'm like, wow, you know, you have people in Finland or whatever listening to the show. So cool. We're happy to have you.

Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I recently sat down with IBM's chairman.

[Krystal Ball]

And CEO Arvind Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side, for example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

All right, let's go ahead and start with Venezuela. As Crystal said, huge, huge ramping up of action from the Trump administration. I'm going to put all of this in context because when I lay it out in context, you to see this not as a single One off. But as Trump said, one of many things in a regime change operation that could potentially be very, very soon to come. So first, let's go ahead and start with this. This is video released by the United States Attorney General Pam Bondi. What you guys are all seeing in front of you is a sanctioned US Is a sanctioned oil tanker which was bound for Cuba from Venezuela. This is an unflagged, uninsured tanker. It has kind of operated in the midst of Russian oil sanctions and others been previously sanctioned by the United States of regarding the IRGC and Hezbollah. But to be very, very clear, this has no connection whatsoever to those regimes. This is a oil tanker bound from Venezuela to Cuba operating under the so called U.S. sanctions regime. You're all watching there. Armed United States Marines and U.S. coast Guard Board this oil tanker and seize it. It remains unclear actually today what will happen to said oil tanker. President Trump saying that we will potentially actually keep the oil. All of this is part of a concerted effort to the Maduro regime off from any of its oil revenues and to continue the sanctions pressure. It is the first oil tanker seized by the United States in 11 years, since 2014. Just to show you how extraordinary that is and that was in the Middle east, had no connection whatsoever to Venezuela. Just to contextualize again how crazy it is to actually do something like this. And this was supported, these operations by United States aircraft carriers. So even though they're framing this as a Coast Guard mission, this is the United States military. United States Marines were up on board and were part of the boarding party. And all of this is being supported, supplanted there as part of regime change. Here was President Trump's immediate comments about the news. Let's take a listen. Well, thank you very much. It's been an interesting day from the standpoint of news. As you probably know, we've just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, large tanker, very large.

Largest one ever seized actually. And other things are happening. Have you considered talking to the president of Colombia who you call a drug leader? No, I haven't really thought too much about him. He's been fairly hostile to the United States.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I haven't given him a lot of thought.

[Krystal Ball]

He is, he's going to have himself some big problems if he doesn't wise up.

Colombia is producing a lot of drugs. A lot of they have cocaine factories that they make cocaine as you know, and they sell it right into the United States. So he better wise up or he'll be next. He'll be next too.

I Hope he's listening. He's going to be next, Mr. President, because we don't like people when they kill people and they sell drugs, they kill them in the United States. And Colombia is a major manufacturer of drugs, meaning cocaine in particular. So that was also a threat to President Petro over at Colombia. Now, again, I just want to contextualize much of this in what's happening. Let's put a six, please, up on the screen. The Wall Street Journal, Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal with a harrowing account here of Maria Machado, the Nobel laureate recipient. Yeah, Opposition leader of Venezuela who traveled covertly to Oslo. Now let me tell you about her harrowing escape there from Venezuela where she wore a wig, went through 10 police checkpoints, boarded a boat. Here's where it gets interesting. Called the United States of America to inform them that she would be on said little boat headed to Curacao. Why did she do that? Number one, she was provided U.S. military escort. Two fighter jets actually came closer to Venezuelan airspace than ever before to make sure that the Venezuelans didn't do anything. Two, they wanted to make sure her boat was not blown out of the water and mistaken for a drug trafficker, just so we're all very clear.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And three, I don't think the time is an accident of her leaving the country, being escorted out of the country, and then this incredibly dramatic escalation. And I know we're all used to the US Doing whatever the hell we want to whoever the hell we want around the world, but I do want you to imagine that someone did this to us, seized one of our tankers, one of our flagged ships. And you know, in this brazen act, we would consider that an act of war. And certainly the Venezuelans also will consider this an act of war. In fact, the President Maduro of course came out and called this barefaced robbery and an act of international piracy. And of course we can all recall that we launched an entire like multi state war against the Houthis because of their actions in support of Palestinians and trying to, you know, trying to end the genocide in Gaza where they were blocking certain ships in waterways. So I think it's incredible, I think it's important to keep in mind what a truly extraordinary action this is. And also as Sager was saying, this is not a one off. We know there is a huge push within the Trump regime for this regime change operation. We know that plans have been greenlit for regime change operations, whether it's direct invasion, whether it's regime destabilization through deep state actors. We know that is all going on. And so when Trump comes out and says, hey, this is the first thing that you're finding out, but there are more things that are happening that you're gonna learn about. We all have to take that incredibly seriously.

[Krystal Ball]

Right? So the Maria Machado thing is important for a couple of reasons. Number one is that they didn't want retaliation on Maria Machado. The opposition leaders, truly the anointed one from the United States. I mean, don't forget Ryan and I reported I had those, my exclusive documents. This was, what was it, a month or so ago? I'll just read from the report I did for drop site quote, mountains of money sent to Venezuelan opposition groups. 213 million in the last five years. The documents note that the US spent 18 million alone in 2020 on Maria Machado's recent global travel. Who. Of course, this is the thing about Maria Machado. And look, I'm not gonna just say she's only a puppet of the United States, she is certainly one. But that's not her only thing. Like what the Venezuelans have told me is it would be ridiculous to deny that she doesn't have some domestic actual support in the country. I'm not even gonna sit here and say Nicolas Maduro is wildly popular or stolen election or whatever. She clearly has a constituency. But what has happened is that prior to Donald Trump's election and since, she has worked hand in glove with Donald Trump and with Marco Rubio to orchestrate this entire thing. So, for example, what she has done is she is actually the one who put it in the heads of the Trump administration, Rubio, that this whole drug trafficking thing was real. She actually bolstered those claims and has since is actually facing a lot of pushback inside of Venezuela. Cause they're like, hey, you are supporting this Maduro narco trafficking thing, which is leading to the murder of many of our countrymen. So it's actually diminished some of her support. The reason she left the country to Curacao and is now in Oslo. She claims she's gonna come back. Now, here's the thing is, does it not seem like the perfect set of circumstances? Seizing an oil tanker, we've got these B52s on the coast. You got the aircraft carrier, you've got the whole US Military thing. And then you happen to have the chosen recipient of hundreds of millions of dollars from the United States over the last five or so years, who is now finally out of the country. Can you not think? I mean, look, it doesn't take a genius to put the pieces together here. Part of this is also, we're finally abandoning the pretense of drug trafficking. Like, now, at least we don't have to debate fentanyl. Although I'm sure they'll come up with some BS justification, like, actually there was fentanyl in the fuel or something like that. This is 100% ideological. This was a Venezuelan oil tanker bound for Cuba. It's like a Miami neocon wet dream, depriving the Cubans, depriving the Venezuelans. Now, you could say, well, they're under sanction. Yeah, there's a lot of countries under sanction. Russia's under sanction. You see us going around with United States Marines boarding Russian oil tankers, although I'm sure Lindsey Graham wants us to, which he. He tweeted this morning. He said, I applaud President Trump's boarding now. We should do it to Russia. Right. This is the logical. And that shows you, just shows you, like, the level of insanity of what this looks like. And that's what I want to hammer home for everyone, is they're trying to claim, as this is some routine. It is not routine. Again, the last time the United States boarded an oil tanker was 2014. It was about some Libyan rebels and was involved United States Navy SEALs. That's the last time. I also want to say that when the Houthis or others board a other, then they're like, this is a flagrant act of war that violates international law, the law of the sea. By the way, oil futures went up. So if you're surprised about that. And I also just want to sit with the sheer stupidity and ridiculousness of all of this, because at this very moment, the United States is buying oil from Nicolas Maduro via Chevron. In fact, oil analysts were like, yeah, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to board a Venezuelan Cuban oil tanker when Chevron has a special license from the Trump administration to continue to buy oil. And there's all this talk right now about the Monroe Doctrine. Now, again, this is infuriating because I tweeted this morning, the vast majority of these Trump people who are like, the Monroe Doctrine, you learned about it in AP US history at age 16. You don't know anything about the Monroe Doctrine. What does the Monroe Doctrine actually say? It says the United States should be the sole and or guarantor of the region of the Western Hemisphere. What it was designed to say is to keep the European great powers out of the Western Hemisphere. Now, what is consistent Actually with the Monroe Doctrine, overthrowing a regime purely for ideological reasons or ensuring the, quote, security of your region in the Western hemisphere, so called US neighbors, not just through tranquility, peace or whatever, but through making sure that things are beneficial. Let's say to the United States, Nicolas Maduro, and let's say we're talking about oil and gold and minerals. Nicolas Maduro has offered the United States gold, minerals and access to his country. He is happy to do business as long as he gets to remain the figurehead. Why not take him up on it? What's such a big deal about that? And you know, I mean, same thing here with Cuba. What? I as an American can't sleep until casinos are back in Cuba. I mean, I'm sorry, I don't care who rules Cuba. It's been 60 years. Not my problem. Maybe it is the grandfathers or whatever down in Miami Dade. Not mine and definitely not the rest of the people left in the US if you look also at the reasoning, cuz everything is about resources. He is offering the resources. What are the things through a Trump America first lens that we would want from Maduro? Or say we don't want you to do as much business with Russia and China. Maduro goes, I don't care about Russia and China, man. This is out of convenience. They're willing to buy my oil. If you buy it, I'll sell it to you, no problem. I won't sell it to them anymore. He said that Trump himself said, quote, he offered everything and then migrants. Okay, Maduro today, today is still accepting United States migrant deportation flights. He is open to accepting said deportation flights. People blame him for the migrant crisis, to be honest. And I am not one of those people who blames problems on America. The Biden administration and the Trump administration kept extraordinary sanctions and as I reported with Ryan, we spent a hell of a shitload of money encouraging a lot of these Venezuelan migrants to come to Colombia and to come here. We wanted them to leave because we wanted to destroy the country and point it or paint it as some destroyed political project. We can't just say in a vacuum. Now, look, many of those people did leave because, you know, they were fleeing, whatever. And I'm not going to say that that isn't like all that. Maduro bears no responsibility. But it's complicated. We want a stable Venezuela. Who governs it, I don't care. Especially if we get oil, gold and he'll take his migrants. I mean, come on, what are we doing here?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, our actions dramatically undermine regional stability, dramatically Undermine regional security. And if you want to know why Venezuela or any other nation would turn and be interested in relationships with China and Russia, I mean, our actions are aggressively pushing them into the arms of the people that people here in D.C. see as our adversaries. So it's counterproductive all the way around. I mean, the Cuba, like the Cuba is the perfect example of this. How many years have we had sanctions there? It hasn't worked. It's immiserated the people. It has pushed people out of Cuba and created refugee crises. There it is. I mean, Cuba's in a horrible condition right now. May actually be on the verge of for real collapse, but that's what we're talking about here. I mean, they're so delusional. We literally never learn. People in D.C. just never learn from the mistakes of the past. They still have in their head, like, oh, we've got a 50 day plan and we know what to do and it's gonna go so easily and it's gonna be mission accomplished. And then we'll be able to just take whatever oil and whatever resources we want. Completely egotistical, narcissistic and utterly delusional and devoid of learning any of the lessons of the past. You know, it's funny because you were saying that all these people wanna portray the seizing of the oil tankers. Oh, this is just like some normal shit, no big deal, whatever. The person who actually didn't frame it that way was Trump. He was like, this is the biggest we've ever done. He wanted to brag about it and be like, this is an extraordinary action that we're taking. And you know what? He's right. He's right. And so you've got. Let's go ahead and play cnn. This is A four. Talking about how absolutely normal this action is and nothing to see here. And this is what is so where we truly have a democracy problem in this country is when it comes to foreign policy. Because the American people do not want this. Do not see it as normal, do not see it as a priority. Want this administration and other politicians to be focused on how they can afford health care, how they can afford groceries, how they can afford housing. And instead here we are bombing random people in the Caribbean, seizing a drug boat and preparing for yet another regime change war. This is A four, let's play it.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm seizing a tanker. How could this escalate the conflict with Venezuela? Well, you know, we've had sanctions on Venezuelan oil since the first Trump administration and, and Biden kept them, kept Them. Yeah. So to me, this is absolutely normal. I mean, seizing an oil tanker.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, yeah, we've been seizing Iranian oil.

[Krystal Ball]

Tankers in the past.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We also, according to the law that.

[Krystal Ball]

I've read, we can.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That oil is up for forfeiture.

[Krystal Ball]

So we could keep that. We've kept Iranian oil in the past.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So I actually think that this is less controversial in terms of law and.

[Krystal Ball]

Sanctions and what has been, you know, disputed or not disputed.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Like, I think this is actually a pretty, you know, check the box case.

[Krystal Ball]

Now, you know, what will this mean.

[Saagar Enjeti]

In terms of escalation?

[Krystal Ball]

You know, what is he going to do?

[Saagar Enjeti]

What is Maduro going to do?

[Krystal Ball]

Is he going to step aside because.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We'Re sanctioning this oil? I mean, you know, we pick up.

[Krystal Ball]

This oil tanker, it's one oil tanker. Probably not.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And this is the thinking in D.C. i mean, in a way it's a very useful segment. Cuz this is actually the bipartisan thinking in D.C. don't take it from me. Take a listen to Chuck Schumer talking about, you know, he's being asked about Venezuela and regime change and he refuses to object straightforwardly to it. He's got, oh, Trump doesn't have a plan and it's gonna be incompetent. The regime changed operation. That's his beef with it. Let's take a listen to a three.

[Krystal Ball]

Do you disagree with President Trump's ultimate goal of regime change in Venezuela? Look, the bottom line is President Trump throws out so many different things in so many different ways, you don't even know what the heck he's talking about. You know, obviously if Maduro would just flee on his own, everyone would like that. But we don't know what the heck he's up to when he talks about that. So it's very, very. You cannot say I endorse this, I endorse that when Trump is all over the lot. Not very specific and very worrisome at how far he might escalate.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yes. Actually, you can say I endorse this or I endorse that. It is not hard to say. I do not support a regime change war in Venezuela. But the truth is Schumer and other Democratic leaders as well, they are on board with this. I mean, they were all behind the whole Juan Guaido attempted coup and Biden.

[Krystal Ball]

This is why I can't.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We can't.

[Krystal Ball]

This is a bipartisan story and any honest telling of it ignores that. Right. Is that Donald Trump? Yes, the Juan Guaido situation supported by Marco Rubio, but also by the Democrats. Don't forget, he was at the State of the Union. They all stood up for him. Nancy Pelosi, I covered that with you. And I remember saying, I go, man, anytime he's see two people standing up at the State of the Union, if it has nothing to do with like a veteran or a gold star widow, it's like we're in trouble. Like we're in trouble. Anytime people on both sides of the aisle are all standing up to cheer something, that's what happened. Chuck Schumer, all these people, they buy the fundamental premise of regime change in Venezuela. And just to again sit with this, this is an action genuinely extraordinary. She talked about Iran. She's totally wrong. What I have, you know, I did my research in terms of the oil tankers. Here's how it usually goes. We issue a threat. We say, you need to transfer the cargo. The United States Justice Department is going to seize this based on xyz sanctioned. Endorsed by the United States Congress. We do not like, As I said 2014, last time we physically boarded a vessel, she said, we do this to Iranian oil tankers all the time. Completely false. Now, do we run up on them and say, hey, you need to surrender and all that? Yes, but by force like this? No, no, no. Like this is serious down from hell. I mean, this is serious shit. And beyond that, the United States Congress has never once declared, never once war on Venezuela, has not endorsed regime change on Venezuela. And at this point I would say, I'd be like, okay, now I think it's a horrible idea, but if you're gonna do this, you need to go to Congress, the majority, and I want their asses on the line. I want everybody to vote for us. If this shit ever backfires, I wanna hold you accountable. But they don't wanna do that. They wanna hold behind the cameras in D.C. and Chuck Schumer can sit there and say, Donald Trump doesn't know what he's doing, but at the end of the day he's doing it incompetently. But I still kinda support it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right? Yeah. Well, you can't really endorse or un. Yes, actually, no, you can, you can. It's not all dependent on Donald Trump. You could have your own view of things, but the truth is he does. And he like low key or high key, supports it. I wanna give a shout out to RO gave excellent comments on the floor yesterday. Chris Van Hollen gave excellent comments on the floor yesterday. So there have been some, you know, really powerful but potentially minority voices from the Democrats on this. But in terms of the leadership, you know, they are very reluctant and it's, it's, I don't even understand it because it's not like Democrats win in Florida anymore. You know what I mean? Like Florida's not a swing state anymore. You don't have to do this shit anymore. Like you could just oppose this and join with the, where the American people are and say, no, we don't want a war for oil, we don't want a war for these South Florida neocons. We are not on board with this whatsoever. You could just do that, even if you're just reading the cynical political calculus. But even that is beyond them because they are so ideologically committed to these global regime change operations.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. And considering what else is going on, I do at least wanna highlight there are rumblings in Congress and some of this was sent to me by Eric Sperling. He's over at Just Foreign Policy. This is pointing out that even a guy like Ryan Zinke, he was a Trump cabinet official, he's one of the most hawkish members of Congress even. He is going on CNN and he's like, look, we may need to pump the brakes here. They don't have unlimited powers to launch war in Venezuela. A8, please. Let's put it up on the screen. The President have powers, has powers, but.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He doesn't have unlimited powers when it.

[Krystal Ball]

Comes to using force against another country of action. Is that. This is why we have Article one and Article two. He has to present a case to the Congress. Congress is the only body that declare.

[Saagar Enjeti]

War should the US go to a land war in Venezuela over this.

[Krystal Ball]

Venezuela. You know, I am an advocate of the Monroe Doctrine.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You can't have a drug dealing country.

[Krystal Ball]

Like Venezuela in the soft underbelly of the United States, which is the Caribbean. You can't have a country that's run.

[Saagar Enjeti]

In narco, terrorist and drug boats by.

[Krystal Ball]

Air, sea and land constantly running against US policy and the policy of being a safe, secure Caribbean.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Is that a yes?

[Krystal Ball]

I would say. I would leave that up to Congress. See, I would leave it up to Congress also. Yeah, again, Monroe. Oh, Monroe Doctrine. It's like Munich, you know, whenever we have to talk about it. You don't know anything about the Monroe Doctrine. You literally don't know. It was designed, as I said in the 1800s, to keep the European powers out of Latin America and the Western Hemisphere then. And probably you don't even fucking know this. There's something called the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which Says the United States has a right to intervene in Latin America. Also designed at the time of European monarchies to say that if Germany, for example, was going to intervene or invade Brazil, I think it was Argentino. It was one of those countries at the time that. No, the United States instead has a right to do so. None of this has to do with an ideological war, again, inspired by emigres, mostly rich emigres, let's be honest. Of the Venezuelan and Cuban emigre population to Florida, who now literally are occupying our government. If we do this, we will never.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Let the Cold war die. It's just cold War.

[Krystal Ball]

It's like they're again, like, who rules? Venezuela is not our problem, period. Especially if they're gonna give us oil and they'll accept the Maya. I mean, what else could you want? Why do I care? Oh, he stole an election. You know, how many people stealing elections around the world? How many dictators we just received the Saudi monarchy, right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Literally a literal Al Qaeda terrorist.

[Krystal Ball]

Al Qaeda terrorist.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He's the president of Syria and we're. Oh, we're dropping sanctions on them.

[Krystal Ball]

And Crystal, he sees his country by military force. Right. Oh, those spooky and bad. Right, though. So, I mean, this is what I'm saying. It's preposterous. We deal with bad people all over the world.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Not to mention that our sanctions and our program against Maduro and also against the Cubans, it's part of what helps prop up these. Because Maduro can blame all of the problems of Venezuela on us, even when some of them are his doing. I mean, I think it also contributes to the authoritarian bent because you're under so much, much pressure and have so much pressure coming externally. It makes you. It makes you want to and need to rule with an iron fist. This is not an excuse or anything like that, but it's just to explain how incredibly stupid and counterproductive damaging our foreign policy has been and our sanction policy has been, especially with regard to these countries. So, yeah, so, I mean, here we are.

Sagar, what's your estimation of like, are we. Is this, this is just happening? Is that where we are? This is the decision has been made because seems like there's been waffling in the past number of weeks.

[Krystal Ball]

They continue to believe that Maduro will just step down. Like, that's really what this is about, is this is about a military pressure campaign. There is one saving grace to this, which is that they are still terrified of us boots on the ground. Now, I'm not saying that can't happen because here's, I mean, look, if the United States oil tanker, I mean, fricking Captain Phillips, who was like a merchant marine captain who was seized by Somali Pirates, we sent three US warships, dropped 100 Navy SEALs and sniped three of them in the head in the little of moving waters just to protect the primacy of the American flag on the high seas. It's an act of war, right? I mean, that's why we treat it the way that it is. This is one of the, I mean literally the point of the United States Navy is to guarantee the seas, you know, for commerce for the United States. This is something we would never tolerate. We would absolutely go to war over something like that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And we should, frankly. We should.

[Krystal Ball]

We should. Okay. And so my point is. But, yeah, but even the Houthis never fly on a US ship.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's right. That was all on behalf of Israel.

[Krystal Ball]

That's what I'm trying to say is like if this was actually a United States oil tanker and another country, oh my, even I would tell you, I'd be like, blow their asses out.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We said they were terrorists for what they were doing. And it wasn't even to us. It was to Israel, right?

[Krystal Ball]

Or to a British ship or you know, whatever, like some other US ally ship, which again, I don't know why that's my problem. Last time I checked, the British Navy's their pride and joy. Let them deal with it. But you know, we could step back. The point remains solely that they are still afraid of actually putting troops on the ground. But how quickly could all this all spiral out of control? What if one of those guys fired at a U.S. what if a U.S. marine, God forbid, was killed in this action? Can you imagine that? And then the bloodlust here in this country. And this is why this is just like Iraq. It was an ideological project from the beginning. WMD was a pretext. That's why I've been screaming so much about fentanyl. It's bullshit. It's complete bullshit. It's literally fake. Fake. And it's faker than wmd, to be honest. You know, they had much more of a case that time around. Jon Stewart did a good job of breaking all that down. But it's like the fentanyl thing, you know, created this thing where the narco terrorist is now in the lexicon. And now that's all over Fox News. And the brain dead MAGA people, they believe it. And now the oil, they're like, well, you know, just like overthrowing Saddam it's like, well it was about wmd, but that's why we need to replace him and de bathify like it's all part of the next logical conclusion. This has all been part of regime change from the beginning. Now the final thing is we should be at least assured they are still afraid of a Libya style situation. They want Maduro to just hand power over. But let me just even say that is even, you know, look at Libya. Let's say even militarily we don't strike Venezuelan land. And Maduro just goes, you think like he's the Chavez people have been in power now for like 20 some years just cause he goes, what? You think that the people who have a monopoly on the use of force are just gonna be like here Maria Machado, here's my rifle, right? No, that's not how it works.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Or that the people of Venezuela are just gonna accept like oh yes, thank you for our US puppet regime. We accept this and are happy about it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean pro.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Probably not.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay, maybe some, but maybe not other. Like what does the history of that tell what? Iraq, Saddam was a bad guy, okay? He killed hundreds of thousands of his own people, literally gassed women and children. Well guess what? After he left it was way worse. And you have to just be honest about that. That's maybe what happens in Venezuela.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And created new terrorists. And created new terrorists and security threats.

[Krystal Ball]

To the U.S. i mean look, you got Venezuela, which they claim is a drug capital. And it's like oh, let's just plunge the country into civil war. I' that won't be to the benefit of the guerrillas, right? Oh, civil war in Latin America has never been exploited by drug traffickers. Colombia. Oh right. You know, read a fucking book. I mean this is where you don't even have to read. You could watch Clear and present Danger like you know, some movie from 1990. This is, this was long held as some sort of wisdom. Wisdom post 1980s, 1960s to 1980s, like direct meddling in Latin America which did not work out to the benefit of US interests. Almost everyone in hindsight is like yeah man, that was crazy, right? The Sandinistas and I mean even going back to the whole Banana Republic stuff, like most people look at that as a pretty shameful part of US history, which again, beyond that, like did it work out to us? Like no, it certainly didn't. And that's why putting this all full circle, the press, I mean that absolutely normal clip, that should live in infamy for real. It really should. You can't say that like it's not true. And people just don't have the requisite knowledge base or they don't either read or they don't. They're not skeptical of the government's claims. And we have a bipartisan wish for expelling Maduro. Again, why? Because he stole an election? Maybe. I mean, can anybody even prove maybe he did? Maybe. Okay. And by the way, even if he did, who cares? There's very same way.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He's willing to leave too, by the way. He just wants to, just not on the same timeline. He wants to do it on his terms.

[Krystal Ball]

Right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, to your point about like, you don't even have to have read a book. You just have to have like existed in the United States for the past number of decades. This is reminds me of why I am fundamentally a populist. Because look at where the elites are and the insane shit they talk themselves into and think they're so much smarter than the population. And then look at the polls. And in spite of all the like frankly half assed propaganda efforts, you have a majority of Americans who are like, no, not on board with this random like alleged drug boat murders, not on board with Venezuela regime change. We don't want any of this. What are you doing? So it only takes some sort of like lived experience, frankly and basic common sense to understand what a terrible direction this is. And yet you have so much bipartisan elite support, including on networks like cnn, including from Chuck Schumer and of course from the Trump regime and the, you know, the Miami occupied government, as you put it, that, you know, where in spite of the public being adamantly opposed to this and wanting their politicians to refocus on domestic issues and actually deliver and make their lives better, instead we're doing this bullshit.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes. And again, unfortunately it's not receiving nearly the amount of attention it deserves. They are counting on everyone to just look the other way. Oh, it's just another Trump thing. And then it'll explode out on this. I mean, you know, if we think back to Libya. Were you on msnbc?

[Saagar Enjeti]

I had MSNBC then, yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

What was it like? Like was it really the headline every day? Because from what I remember, Gaddafi was gone. And then after that, when did people start to pay attention? Chris Stevens, you know, after Benghazi. Yeah, but there was a nine month period where shit was going bad.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And that was more, I mean, certainly MSNBC was covering that, but that was more a partisan, like on FO News. They were on it all, you know, every day.

[Krystal Ball]

But my Point is, just like most, we don't remember, like, even in the midst of a lot of. Even Iraq. I lived through Iraq. That's when I really became cognizant of the news. You know, for a while there after O3, you didn't pay much attention.

[Saagar Enjeti]

There were years that, where there was very little, there was nothing.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, I remember isis, for example, right? The Caesar of Mosul. Nobody in America had thought about Iraq for three years. We left in 2011, and then we just woke up three years later and they took over the city. If you were paying attention, you know, maybe you would have learned. But, like, that's my biggest fear with Venezuela, is we'll just do something. They'll declare victory and then nine to 10 months, that's how this stuff, you know, nothing happens like this. Right. Like, it's a slow burn, but the results are very predictable. So I don't, I wish I could say call your congressman, but, you know, the truth is they probably support it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, I will say, I will say that, remember, there was, they were pretty close to some sort of a resolution, and then the White House basically lied to them and went, oh, we're not gonna do anything. This isn't necessary. You don't have to pass this. And then they backed away from it. So there is at least some support for War Powers Resolution, some sort of a check on this administration. But I would bet on the side of cowardice. They don't wanna be on the record. They're happy to. Even the Republicans. Exactly. Even the ones who are leery of the action. They would rather just be able to blame Trump if it goes wrong and not have their name on a yes or a no, up or down vote. So, you know, I think, look, I am really, really pessimistic. Cause the other piece is by painting this as like, oh, Monroe Doctrine and narco terrorist. And as Jesse Waters said, America's literally in the name of south and Central America.

[Krystal Ball]

Wait, what? Did he say that?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yes, so of course it's America first. He literally said that. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, I mean, you don't have the same.

Same level of dissident voices on the right that you had in the buildup to the Iran strikes, for example, or people with access and power and influence and sway who are in the White House trying to make an opposite case or on the airwaves trying to make an opposite case. And, you know, I mean, the Trump administration doesn't give a shit of what lefties like me have to say or any other Democrat for that matter. And so the fact that you don't have really any competing pressure saying, no, we shouldn't do this to me is why we're in a very.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, they don't care about me either. The only person who maybe I. I wouldn't say he could have stopped it, but he would have been influential on this is Charlie Kirk.

[Saagar Enjeti]

But, you know, but I, I mean, even if they. I don't know if he would have opposed it because so many mag voices are on board with it. You know, I mean, who says he's on board with it? Like, yes, he is on Venezuela. Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

Wow. Okay.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, no, it's bad.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay.

Wow. Just.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Wow.

[Krystal Ball]

Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast smart talks with IBM.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I recently sat down with IBM's chairman.

[Krystal Ball]

And CEO Arvind Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smart talks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

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All right.

[Krystal Ball]

Let'S get to econ.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So speaking of those things that Americans would actually like us to be doing rather than new regime change wars, Trump gave a big speech this week trying to tout.

And also giving us some advice about how to navigate the current economic waters. Let's take a listen.

[Krystal Ball]

Our economy is unbelievable. There's never been anything but the Democrats go out. Prices are too high. Yeah, they're too high because they caused them to be too high. But now they're coming down. One of the most important ways we're defeating inflation is by unleashing American energy, including oil, gas and clean, beautiful coal right here in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. They gave you the highest inflation in history and we're giving you, we're bringing those prices down rapidly. Lower prices, bigger paychecks, you're getting lower prices, bigger paychecks. We're getting inflation, we're crushing it. And you're getting much higher wages. I mean, the only thing that you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It'S really going up big.

[Krystal Ball]

It's called the stock market. And your 401ks, you can give up certain products. Products.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You can give up pencils.

[Krystal Ball]

That's under the China policy. You know, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need one or two. You know, they don't need that many. But you always need, you always need steel. You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three is nice, but you don't need 37 dolls.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Throw back to some of the Liberation Day rhetoric about like, ah, your kids don't need that many dolls. You don't need that many pencils. I think he's used both of those. Ex also love that. Of course the prices are high, he says. But then in that previous interview with Dasha Burns, he was saying, oh, the economy's a plus, plus, plus, plus.

[Krystal Ball]

Also as a father of a just not Even one year old girl. They do need a lot of dolls. There's like each doll is a very specific purpose. Okay. In terms of terms of when specifically and what mouth feel the infant is looking for. So sorry President Trump. We do in fact need lots and lots.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He's the expert on parenting. I'm sure it's true. Very involved in raising all of those children. Other big economic news. Yesterday everybody was watching this closely. The Fed announcing that they are moving forward with a quarter point rate cut. Let's take a listen to a little of that.

[Krystal Ball]

Total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. And excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%.

These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs.

In the near term. Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals. A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short, long lived, effectively a one time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to lower our policy rate by a quarter percentage point.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So a quarter rate point cut is a very modest, you know, modest cut less than what certainly President Trump is looking for. All expectations are Jay Powell's term expires in May. Either then or even before then, Trump will be putting in his own person. He has said explicitly that what he wants from that person is for them to cut rates aggressively. Powell seemed to be indicating hesitation and nervousness and I think the Fed was divided in terms of even this quarter rate cut because you've got those competing pressures he's talking about. On the one hand you have inflation concerns continuing. That would argue against a rate cut. On the other hand you have unemployment concerns increasing. So, so that would argue for a rate cut. So that's why they took this sort of middle ground. But signaling that future rate cuts are not a guarantee whatsoever. So what do you make of this move and how Trump will feel about it, what it'll do with the economy?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, he's already gone after the Fed chairman. But I mean I think what it definitely shows you. First of all for the Fed, this is part of the danger is because they have more unreliable data that they have because of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Then because of the government shutdown that previously happened. But beyond that, what Trump and them are doing right now is just so Biden esque to me because very recently on their affordability tour. So he went to Pennsylvania. I believe the Vice President will go to Allentown, Pennsylvania very soon. Is all built on from what I remember the first Trump administration doing on the Tax Cuts and Jobs act is they would be like, well, remember I told you that story about Paul Ryan was like well over a year. It should save you enough to buy a new sink from Ikea or something like. That's basically what they' they're like a Costco membership. Yeah, Costco membership.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That was right.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, Costco membership. Love Costco. I don't wanna shit on Costco. But the point is just that they're trying to find these like little things and statistics which even if they may be true, don't really fit with inflation and are very much Bidenesque in terms of, well, we saved this amount of jobs. People do not need to hear about whether they're doing well or not. They just don't. You can never convince somebody who is financially struggling that they're actually doing better than they are. They have to feel it. And that comes from a vibe. It also just comes from basic like facts. And if you look at the balance sheet of the everyday American, it does not comport with what Trump is saying. That's why I think it's such a failed strategy. I mean beyond the look, maybe the MAGA folks will buy it. You know, there's a lot of evidence around economic sentiment that people feel better who are Republican voters about the economy when a Republican as president and vice versa with Democrats. But I still think that much of that is beginning to erode because the economic picture of fundamentals is getting so bad. And we're about to talk about health care. I mean it's look, ACA premiums and all of that aside, even employer sponsored health care, which the vast majority of Americans have, is way too expensive and it's bad and most people know that. And it goes way up. Health care, education, you know, I was doing the 529 math recently for my daughter and I was looking and using ChatGPT to track education inflation and it was, it's like, you know, I mean I'm pretty wedded to in state tuition because I just don't think there's that much of a difference. But even that when you look at it, you're like, like when you're looking at 17, 20%, you're like, so I'm going to need 200 grand. This is going to outpace the S&P 500 just to send your, your child to a state school and just track if things don't change. And I mean, would anybody take the bet that things are going to change in higher education? No. It's the most corrupt industry in the world. So everybody can feel that. Everyone. And groceries, I mean, don't we have some of the polling about how people are feeling? I mean, we do that flight vacation one really stuck out to me.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, we can go through that. Let's put B7 up on the screen. And by the way, I don't think we pulled this, but in this affordability polling that Politico did, they found that a majority of Americans say the cost of college is not worth it. Now, if you still look at the wage premium that you achieve with a college degree, it is quite significant. It's actually growing. But that is the sentiment among the American people increasingly is like this level of debt that I have to take on, it's not worth it for college anymore. And listen, I have a daughter who's going to college next year. So I'm looking very closely at all of these things. I said the same thing to her. I'm like, we have good in state colleges here in Virginia. Virginia. Why would we, why would we even look anywhere else when the tuition is so incredibly. This is insane for an in state school, but it's utterly insane to go out of state in any case. Okay, here are some of the findings here. They say that nearly half of Americans said they find groceries, utility bills, health care, housing and transportation difficult to afford. The number one issue that people had affordability wise was actually groceries. And I think that's because, you know, that pain point is there every single week when you're going to the grocery store and trying to figure out how you're gonna feed your family that is with you every single week. And it is so in your face. And you know, it's so in recent memory, you can. You are connected to how much cheaper groceries used to be. Let's put B8 up on the screen as well. 27% say that they have skipped medical check because of costs within the last two years. So a quarter of Americans saying, you know what, I just can't go in and get a checkup. We all know what that leads to when you delay care. Then you end up in the emergency room getting the most expensive care. And it's obviously much worse for your health. So this is A little window into why we have. We spend the most on healthcare and get the worst results. Let's put the next piece up on the screen. This is the one you were referring to, Sachs. However, 46%. So almost half of Americans in what is supposed to be this wealthy, glorious country say they can't pay for a vacation that involves air travel. And I couldn't help but think about Sean Duffy telling us all we gotta dress up. And the improving the flight experience starts with you. Just imagine how galling that is for 50% of Americans who are like, fuck you. I can't even afford. I can't even conceive of going on a vacation that involves air travel. And you want me to, like, show up at the airport, you know, and you're lecturing me about how I should be dressed in this theory, Theoretical air travel that I can't even afford to partake in. And then the last one we have here is food. Half of those surveyed said they find it difficult to pay for food. Majority, 55% blame the Trump administration for the high price. So half of Americans saying they find it difficult just to pay for food. And people, of course, are not buying anymore, that it's all Biden's fault. Which is the two lines that Trump has are basically like, the economy's amazing. A. I think he actually believes that.

[Krystal Ball]

He does.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think he believes that because all he really looks at is the stock market, and he's like, what? The stock market is up and I'm doing all these deals and all these CEOs are coming and kissing my ass and telling me how great everything is. I don't know what's wrong with you people. I think that that's what he actually believes. And then when he's sort of cajoled by his aides into talking about affordability, he calls it a con job. Or if he's gonna acknowledge anything like he did in that clip we showed, he'll say, oh, well, any problems are Biden's fault. Right. People just aren't buying that anymore. And it's two things. Number one, look, you're the president. You've been the president for a year now. We're on your watch now at this point. But number two, he has been so extraordinarily active himself directly over and beyond going, going over the heads of Congress with his tariff policy. He has been so actively messing with the economy that, of course, that's going to land in your bucket. Not to mention all of the destruction of the federal government, all of those layoffs which do have a significant impact.

[Krystal Ball]

On the economy as well, I think the air travel. Yeah. First of all, as I said, I do agree with the secretary, but have you seen his most recent gambit where he wants to put pull up bars?

[Saagar Enjeti]

So you're gonna be in your suit doing pull ups.

[Krystal Ball]

The last thing on earth you want when you're at an airport is more performative, antisocial behavior. Anybody who wants to do air pull up in an airport, you are a fucking loser. Okay? 100%.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Now can I be honest with you?

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, go ahead.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I actually wished at times when I have like a long way. There is a gym at the airport.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, no, that's. That's not the same thing.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Okay. A random pull up bar that you're doing. Yeah, but like to have a gym at the airport where you can actually work out and take a shower, like. Yes, I actually.

[Krystal Ball]

How many people have that long a layover? I mean, who's laying over for multiple. Unless you're flying international, you have never more than a two or three hour layover.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, sometimes you fly international.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, but then you're going to be international. You're not going to be in America, so it doesn't even apply to us. You're probably going to be in Europe on your. Wait somewhere else. Okay, whatever.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I'm saying there have been times where I've let. All right, I've thought, like, I wish there was a gym here because then I. Could you just feel better after you work out and get a shower.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes. As long as the shower is involved.

[Saagar Enjeti]

To like dress up and do some pull ups. Who else is.

[Krystal Ball]

But I'm saying, who's gonna do that? I mean, who's actually gonna shower? Have you been on an airplane? You ever been on a flight to Florida? People don't even wear deodorant. Okay. They wear those cut shirts down here with fucking flip flops and your disgusting smelly toes. All right. So yes, he's correct about the. About the.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Did you watch the Tim Dillon bit about.

[Krystal Ball]

No. What did he say? Oh, it was hilarious.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, definitely. Check it out.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, let's bring it back. I have very strong feelings on air travel. All of that said you are correct in that when you can't look vacation and air travel actually is a current proxy for the current US Economy because if you saw this, you would think that air travel is very cheap right now. It's actually not. It's very expensive. Part of the reason it's very expensive is because the top 10% of Americans are Actually flying and vacationing more than ever. The luxury resorts and all that are booming, booming internationally off of the backs of rich Americans. But the poorer America, and this is the thing about democratized air travel itself. It's supposed to exist for everyone. That's actually one of the coolest parts of the United States is almost a third of people go on an airplane every year. And it's because of vacation to visit family. I mean, that's the purest form of like democratized travel. And to the extent that we defend budget travel, that's why people are always like, oh, Spirit Airlines. And listen, I'm, I mean, I wouldn't, I don't want to fly it or any of that. I hate Southwest, you know, if I'm ever forced to fly it. But it's good that it exists because it exists so that someone can go visit their sister on the other side of the country. Right? And if you can't do that, you're really robbing people of a lot of experience. So 2000, Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving was the most amount of people this year on the road since like the year 2000, right? Yeah, 20 years or something like that. And mostly people can't afford to fly. And people were afraid also of the whole government shutdown TSA situation. I just think when you put that all together, when you have to make trade off choices about things that you, which look, you know, nobody deserves to be able to go on a European vacation, for example, but somebody deserves to be able to fly to the funeral of a family relative or to visit their. At least in my opinion. In my opinion, I think that that's part of the foundation of being able to look, live in this great big country of ours.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So just like, I mean, I feel like there used to be a real sort of aspirational celebration of like, you know, the ability for families to take the vacation. And that was understood as part of just like living, you know, that you're not just surviving. You're able to live this like fulfilling life and complete life. And so, yeah, now people are just increasingly priced out of the possibility of that. Not to mention, if you're actually, I mean, God forbid you want to, to go to Disney World, forget about it. You better be like, have saved for years. You know, I've done the math.

[Krystal Ball]

It is cheaper to go to, to Japan and to go to Tokyo Disney.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Than it is to go to Disney World.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, to the high price. Like if you want the full fledged experience you are, it is orders of magnitude cheaper to go to Tokyo Disney to fly to Tokyo and to go to Tokyo Disney than it is to go to Florida and to some grand Florida.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And there's, there's no little undiscovered, cheap beach town. Everything is multimillion anyway, we're getting, getting. But in any case, let's go ahead and take a listen to Kevin Hassett who was asked by, actually, interestingly, a number of hosts, but Laura Ingraham was kind of pushing him in particular. And remember she did that interview with Trump that was kind of tough as well, where she was like not really impressed with what he was selling her. And he says, well, you know, these bad numbers that are coming out, maybe the reports are wrong, maybe the reports are off. Maybe that's the real problem here. This is B3. Take a listen. Layoffs reach 1.9 million billion.

[Krystal Ball]

That's the highest since 2023. So what is that? Is that a I, is that migrants leaving the country? Is that, you know, automation? We still have to get like the government data that we lost because of the shutdown. And one of the things we're seeing is that payroll surveys where they call up firms and say, hey, do you have how many people do you have working with you that they're showing much lower growth, growth than household surveys where we ask people, do you have a job? And so it could be that what's going on right now is that there's a problem with the way the surveys work. And I'll be able to talk to you in a week or so when we finally get the data. We need to assess that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Incredible. So blaming, oh, maybe the surveys are wrong. Maybe that's the real problem here. She also asked him about the president's comments that the economy is a plus plus plus plus would which I really think that comment Sagar is gonna live in infamy because talk about being out of touch. I mean, as much as the Biden administration tried to sell the economy as being better than ordinary people are feeling, no one there ever said, oh, we give ourselves a beyond perfect score. It's amazing, it's spectacular. And yet that's exactly what Trump is trying to sell the American people when their experience of it is wildly, dramatically divergent from that sentiment. So let's take a listen to how Hassett handles that question.

[Krystal Ball]

President gave the economy an A plus plus plus plus plus plus but you know this, I know this.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The November Fox News national survey found that 76% of voters still view the economy economy negatively.

[Krystal Ball]

And that's up from 67% who said.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The same thing in July. So you've watched these trends over the years.

[Krystal Ball]

You've seen the ups and downs. What explains that in particular? Particular? Well, first of all, don't forget that because of Joe Biden, then a typical family buying a typical home would have to spend twelve hundred dollars a month more on their mortgage because of Joe Biden. You know, groceries went from $400 for the typical family for a month to $525. And we're making an enormous amount of progress. People's purchasing power has gone up by twelve hundred dollars already this year. But there's still room to go. And the fact is that Joe Biden dug a big hole and we're filling the hole really fast.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Biden. Biden. Biden. Biden. Biden. I mean, good luck with that. That might sell on Fox News, but not many other places.

[Krystal Ball]

I didn't try to. Biden tried it a year in, we covered it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Right here. He was like, oh, Donald Trump, Donald Trump's economy, we inherited a mess. It's December 11th, bro. People don't want to hear it. This is exactly when it is amazing how quickly stuff, everything just repeats. Like that Mark Twain quote about history rhyming. Like almost exactly four years to the day, the Biden administration was doing the exact same thing. This is when Bidenomics and all of that was born. Right now, when their approval was in the shitter after Afghanistan post October, that's when things flipped. The vibe was totally nuked. Okay. It's like all the ingredients are all right there.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, and let's think too about, like, what was the central promise of the tariff policy? Right. I mean, a big part of that was rich. Yeah. Was manufacturing jobs. There's gonna be, you know, companies are gonna be back jobs. There's going to be this incredible manufacturing surge. Instead, we are seeing a dramatic. We've now had nine straight months of manufacturing decline. It's been a complete reversal of any of the gains that were made during the Biden administration in terms of manufacturing. It's just been completely destructive in that regard. So whatever the promise was of the tariffs, you could say, okay, well, we didn't completely nuke the entire economy, but it certainly hasn't delivered on any of the promises that were made as part of that policy. And to the point about whether this is even selling on Fox News at this point. I have seen polling that of course, the majority of Republicans still support the president, still support his economic approach as well. But there is starting to be some significant slippage on some of these issues on healthcare in particular on inflation, on just the sort of focus where he's placed his time and his attention. Let me play for you an interview with actually a Trump vote, talking about the, the struggles that she is having in this economy. This is B5.

[Krystal Ball]

My kids daycare went up, can't afford.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The cost of food.

Using credit cards for everyday expenses.

[Krystal Ball]

No money left after their bills were paid. Pretty much just a whole bunch of financial mess. We changed presidents at the beginning of the year. We did.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And the guy who moved into the.

[Krystal Ball]

White House said that he was going to fix it several times. He said it would be easy.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Absolutely.

[Krystal Ball]

Has he fixed it?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Absolutely not.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm definitely waiting for him to fix it. Jones is a three time Trump voter, but she says he has simply failed to keep his promise to lower the cost of living. I'm, I'm very let down by that. Very, very let down because it's, I.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Feel like it's only gotten worse. And like this lady, I don't know, you know, if she's going to vote for a Democrat, but is she going to like enthusiastically show up to vote for a Republican again in the midterms? And maybe she is going to vote for, I don't know. But, but it doesn't take a lot of slippage with your own base to have a real political problem and also to have a real problem with apathy where people are like, yeah, you're telling me to go vote for these people. My life hasn't gotten better. I'm busy that day, sorry, I'm not gonna be bothered with it. And that's a lot of what they're facing politically is there is increasingly a reckoning that is happening, certainly among independents and among Democrats. In fact, the people whose sentiment has shifted the hardest against Trump are Latinos who we have found, you know, are a key swing block and are very economy sensitive, tend to be, you know, strong economy voters and also young people who are, you know, trying to, trying to get their foothold in the world, trying to establish themselves, trying to imagine a future for themselves potentially, you know, get married, have kids, like, imagine that life for themselves. And they're just getting hammered and hammered and hammered and their whole future is being sold out to these tech oligarchs too, by the way.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it's not. It is certainly not. And look, voters, they're paying attention, convincing them otherwise. It never, ever works.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea or OSA.

[Krystal Ball]

In adults with obesity, they may be.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly, or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration.

[Krystal Ball]

Issues, it may be due to osa.

[Saagar Enjeti]

OSA is a serious condition where your.

[Krystal Ball]

Airway partially or completely collapses during sleep.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at. Don't sleep on OSA.com this information is.

[Krystal Ball]

Provided by Lily, a medicine company. It's football season and now you can get anything you need for game day delivered with UberEats. Well, almost. Almost anything. You can't get a running back, but baby back ribs? Yes. Uber Eats Official on demand food delivery partner of the NFL.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Sometimes you just need to be comfortable, you know? But that doesn't mean you don't want to look good too. Well, Old Navy the Kings of Cozy have done it again with Bounce Fleece. It's soft, stylish, and comes in elevated colors that look good anywhere. Basically, it's fleece reimagined for real life, made for moments when you want to be cozy but still need to look good. Call it airport chic. Call it errant elegance. Either way, Bounce Fleece nails it. Find Bounce Fleece and other holiday goodies [e-mail] this is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.