Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: 12/12/25 – Trump SHOOK After Indiana Loss, Beef Price Fixing EXPOSED, Iranians BRACE for New Attacks

Date: December 12, 2025
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti (absent), Ryan Grim, Emily Jashinsky, Griffin Davis
Guests: Brock Rehore (The Lever), Hind Hassan (Al Jazeera)

Episode Overview

This episode takes on a jam-packed agenda with an anti-establishment tone as the team dissects major political and economic headlines:

• Trump’s failed redistricting effort in Indiana and what it says about his waning grip on the Republican Party.
• An exposé on beef price fixing, exploring how industry collusion and algorithms may be driving up burger prices.
• Reporting from Iran, as the country picks up the pieces after Israel’s unprecedented 12-day bombing campaign, with civilians fearing another attack. The episode includes in-depth interviews with investigative journalist Brock Rehore and documentary filmmaker Hind Hassan. Throughout, the hosts bring their signature mix of sharp analysis, bemused commentary, and political skepticism.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump’s Setback in Indiana: Redistricting Blow and Weakening Party Control

[04:30–21:53]

What Happened?

• Trump pushed aggressively for red states such as Indiana to gerrymander congressional districts even more, aiming for a complete Republican sweep.
• Despite threats (including pulling federal funding and orchestrated grassroots pressure), the Indiana Senate (dominated by Republicans) rejected Trump’s map outright.
• This signals a sharp crack in Trump’s influence over the party machinery at the state level—especially notable in a deep-red, traditionally obedient state.

Key Analysis

• Krystal Ball: Highlights how Trump’s tactics included “individual threats, swatting, and pizza sent to lawmakers’ houses”—a full-bore pressure campaign. But traditional conservative and local interests pushed back, unwilling to let national figures dictate politics.
  “There’s a natural human reaction of like, ‘Don’t tread on me… who are you to tell us how to operate in our state?’” [06:58]

• Emily Jashinsky: Emphasizes that state lawmakers bristled at a federal, bullying approach—especially from Trump.
  “The worst way to try to get them to do something is to be a federal government national pressure campaign ... it makes them look terrible to their constituents ... and they hate it so much.” [08:01]

• Ryan Grim: Notes that Trump is suffering these setbacks with no external crisis to blame, making the moment even more “artificial and self-inflicted.”
  “He has done this to himself. There’s no external pressure driving his approval rating into the ground.” [15:32]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “Trump getting told no by state senators. Brutal.” – Ryan Grim [16:39]
• “Wasn’t really that big a deal. Didn’t really try that hard. That’s the cope.” – Emily Jashinsky on Trump’s efforts to save face [07:55]
• “His overall approval on the economy is now 31%. 31%. That’s going to be a disaster for any president, but this president in particular.” – Crystal Ball [17:46–18:10]

Timestamps for the Segment

• Trump’s failed strategy & Indiana GOP culture clash: [04:30–09:54]
• Trump’s current standing, approval ratings, and “self-inflicted wounds”: [14:16–18:10]
• Polls showing voters prioritize the economy, not immigration or foreign adventures: [21:53]

2. Beef Price-Fixing Exposé: Why Your Burger Costs $20

[32:01–52:19] | Guest: Brock Rehore, The Lever

Core Story

• Brock Rehore details a sustained, largely hidden pattern of price fixing in America’s meat and poultry industry.
• At the heart: a company called Agristats, which aggregates and shares sensitive industry information, allegedly helping meat processors collude on both pricing and wage suppression through “algorithmic price fixing.”
• Recent lawsuits and settlements haven’t changed the incentives—settlements cost less than profits, and the mechanisms for collusion mostly remain intact.

How It Works

• By sharing detailed production, wage, and price data through Agristats, major companies (e.g., Tyson) can collectively restrict supply and inflate prices, even in the era of digital “smokescreen” collusion.
• Consumers face higher prices, while ranchers get squeezed out, unable to profitably maintain herds.
• A recent example: Tyson’s plant closure in Nebraska (15% of state’s beef processing, 5% nationally) devastates local economies while decreasing supply, thus driving prices further up.

Key Analysis by Hosts

• Crystal Ball:
  “For so many Americans now, the prices are just so out of control that [steak] is just not even remotely a possibility...who is screwing you over?” [49:29]

• Ryan Grim: On Republican candidate Pete Ricketts treating the Tyson closure like a “natural disaster”:
  “Amazing. Like a natural disaster. Yeah, exactly. An act of God because he sees these CEOs as gods and so the acting together, they've brought about a natural disaster on this town.” [41:59]

• Brock Rehore:
  “The settlement isn’t actually going to change anything substantive in the industry...It’s perfectly rational for these companies...to continue price fixing.” [32:53–36:32]

Notable Quotes

• “There’s something incredibly undignified about paying like $16–17 for a McDonald’s combo.” – Griffin Davis [51:04]
• “It is such a salient issue on both sides of the aisle.” – Brock Rehore on rural anger [44:34]

Timestamps for the Segment

• How Agristats enables meat industry collusion: [32:53–39:42]
• The Nebraska Tyson plant closure and rural impacts: [41:11–44:31]
• Broader political implications—anger is bipartisan, Trump cashes in with rhetoric but not action: [44:31–47:49]

3. Aftermath in Iran: Survivors Cope, Bracing for New Attacks

[52:57–75:45] | Guest: Hind Hassan, Al Jazeera

What Happened?

• Hind Hassan reports on the devastating human toll of the June 2025 Israeli military campaign against Iran (“Operation Rising Lion”), with the US joining in airstrikes.
• Hundreds of civilians killed, including children; residential neighborhoods and nuclear sites targeted; trauma and fear remain.

Key Findings and Journalism Mechanics

• The reporting brings home the civilian cost: mothers grieving, children lost, widespread destruction.
• “In Iran’s largest cemetery, mothers cry out for children who will never answer...The US backed Israel’s war, joining the offensive on the 10th day by striking Iran’s nuclear sites with some of the biggest bombs in the world.” – Documentary narration [53:48–54:50]
• Hassan and her team—hardened by previous reporting in war zones—were especially moved, as were their local Iranian partners, by the grief and trauma experienced by ordinary people.
• Coverage included victims’ families, bomb sites, and even a rare interviews inside government facilities—including an Iranian prison hit during the bombing.

On Access and Reporting Challenges

• Access to Iran and key sites is time-consuming and difficult. Some families are reluctant to trust foreign media, fearing their stories will be misrepresented.
• Yet many ultimately open up. “We had some who said, ‘I don’t know that telling my story will change anything,’—but also an urge to have the reality shown.” [62:21]

How Iranians Feel Now

• Hassan:
  “Talking to people ... it was like a psychological defense; they don't want to accept that [another attack] is happening again... [Their hope is] diplomatic solution, not further bloodshed.” [71:17]

• Across the political divide, Iranians are now more united than divided, with nearly everyone opposing the outside attack—even regime critics.

• On daily life and personal freedoms after the crackdown and war:
  “In Tehran, most of the women either wore the hijab loosely, wore it around the neck, or didn’t wear it at all... a woman was walking in a crop top.” [67:25]

• Hassan notes that the crackdown after protests and now the war led to an easing of previously strict social rules.

Notable Quotes

• “Regardless of what people think in terms of politics and ideology, the victims of war are always the most vulnerable in society... always the children.” – Hind Hassan [56:14]
• “That illusion [that big companies would protect small communities] has been completely destroyed at this point.” – Crystal Ball (echoing views on meatpacking, also applicable to geopolitics) [47:49]

Timestamps for the Segment

• Hind Hassan sets the stage, plays doc clip: [52:57–54:50]
• Emotional toll & team reactions: [55:10–58:09]
• Access and trust-building in Iran: [61:50–66:50]
• Interviews about daily life, social changes, and unifying effects of attack: [66:50–70:16]
• Iranians’ mindset about potential future conflicts: [70:16–74:38]

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps and Attribution)

• “There’s a natural human reaction of like, ‘Don’t tread on me… who are you to tell us how to operate in our state?’” – Krystal Ball [06:58]
• “The worst way to try to get them to do something is to be a federal government national pressure campaign...it makes them look terrible to their constituents...and they hate it so much.” – Emily Jashinsky [08:01]
• “He has done this to himself. There’s no external pressure driving his approval rating into the ground.” – Ryan Grim [15:32]
• “His overall approval on the economy is now 31%. 31%. That’s going to be a disaster for any president, but this president in particular.” – Krystal Ball [17:46]
• “There's something incredibly undignified about paying like 16, $17 for a McDonald's combo.” – Griffin Davis [51:04]
• “The settlement isn’t actually going to change anything substantive in the industry...It’s perfectly rational for these companies...to continue price fixing.” – Brock Rehore [36:32]
• “Regardless of what people think in terms of politics and ideology, the victims of war are always the most vulnerable in society... always the children.” – Hind Hassan [56:14]

Flow and Tone

The conversation is brisk, irreverent, deeply anti-corporate, and anti-establishment in trademark Breaking Points style. The hosts share laughter and dark humor, but the underlying focus is squarely on holding power (political or corporate) to account. Whether lampooning Trump's “vibe checks” or getting emotional with Hind Hassan about Iranian war casualties, the show remains accessible and deeply engaged with the real-world impacts of elite decision making.

Additional Segments and Miscellanea

• Hints of future interviews (e.g., Brock Rehore’s continued investigative journalism, Hind Hassan’s work on prisons in Brazil).
• Brief allusions to AI, Disney characters in Sora AI, and Time Person of the Year (not covered deeply in the main sections).
• Marijuana news: Brief mention of weed being rescheduled, access to banking for dispensaries, and possible market corruption angles. [76:00]

Conclusion

This episode is essential listening for anyone trying to make sense of America’s fracturing political coalitions, the real reason food costs are spiking, or the fearful mood in Iran after the US-Israeli bombing campaign. It is a vivid, detailed survey of power, profit, and pushback, delivered with intelligence and wit—whether you care about gerrymandering, the price of burgers, or the cost of war.

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