12/2/24: Biden Pardons Hunter, Trump FBI Director Deep State Destruction, Trump Says 100% BRICS Tariffs

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar – Episode Summary (December 2, 2024)

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, hosted by Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti, delves into the most pressing political developments with a fearless, anti-establishment lens. In the December 2, 2024 episode titled "Biden Pardons Hunter, Trump FBI Director Deep State Destruction, Trump Says 100% BRICS Tariffs", the hosts dissect significant actions by President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, exploring their implications on American politics and international relations.

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1. Biden Pardons Hunter Biden

Overview: The episode kicks off with Krystal and Saagar discussing President Biden’s unexpected decision to pardon his son, Hunter Biden. This move has ignited a firestorm of debate, especially considering Biden’s previous assurances to maintain a non-interfering stance with the Justice Department.

Notable Discussion Points:

• Contradiction with Previous Statements:

  • Sagar (08:51): "President, I've been very clear. The president's not going to pardon me."
  • This statement highlights Biden’s earlier commitment against pardoning his son, making the actual pardon appear contradictory and raising questions about presidential integrity.

• Public and Political Reactions:

  • Krystal comments on the dissonance between Biden’s image as a law-abiding leader and this act of nepotism, expressing confusion over the relatively muted public outrage compared to other presidential actions.
  • Krystal (11:18): "Pardoning his son for some low-level charges does not rise nearly to the level of outrage of many other things that he has done."

• Comparison with Trump’s Pardons:

  • The hosts draw parallels between Biden’s pardon and Trump’s extensive use of presidential pardons to favor allies and associates.
  • Sagar (10:03): "Every president has abused it. Every president enjoys doling out political favors."

Implications: The pardon not only undermines Biden’s previous stance on upholding the rule of law but also provides political ammunition for critics who argue that nepotism and corruption are rampant in the highest offices of the U.S. government.

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2. Trump Appoints Cash Patel as FBI Director

Overview: Transitioning to former President Donald Trump’s actions, the hosts analyze his appointment of Cash Patel as the new Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This move is portrayed as part of Trump’s broader strategy to dismantle what he terms the "deep state."

Notable Discussion Points:

• Profile of Cash Patel:

  • Sagar (22:13): "Cash Patel is a brilliant lawyer, investigator, America first fighter... runs his own media empire."
  • Patel is characterized as a staunch Trump loyalist, with significant influence in the MAGA sphere.

• Patel’s Platform:

  • Cash Patel (22:13): "I'd shut down the FBI Hoover building... send 7,000 employees across America to chase down criminals."
  • His aggressive stance on dismantling parts of the FBI is seen as an attempt to repurpose the agency to serve Trump’s interests.

• Potential Challenges:

  • Krystal and Sagar discuss the likelihood of Patel facing resistance within the established FBI structure and the Senate during confirmation.
  • Krystal (27:30): "It's very clear he's not gonna fully achieve his goals... he doesn't know his way around this agency."

Implications: Patel’s appointment could lead to significant institutional conflict within the FBI, potentially undermining the agency’s traditional role in law enforcement and intelligence without adequately experienced leadership.

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3. Trump’s 100% Tariffs on BRICS Nations

Overview: A major focus of the episode is Trump’s announcement of imposing 100% tariffs on BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The hosts examine the rationale behind this threat and its potential impact on global trade dynamics.

Notable Discussion Points:

• Understanding BRICS:

  • Sagar (51:09): "BRICS was a theory that these nations would rise up as global GDP increased and would challenge US hegemony."
  • The composition and purpose of BRICS are clarified, emphasizing the bloc’s aim to create an alternative to U.S. dominance in global economics.

• Economic Implications:

  • Interconnected Economies:

    • Sagar (55:33): "40% of all US trade is Mexico and Canada... tariffs will be most consequential there."
    • The deep economic interdependence between the U.S. and BRICS countries, especially Canada and Mexico, is highlighted, suggesting that tariffs could disrupt critical supply chains.

  • Impact on Supply Chains and Prices:

    • Krystal (59:24): "Auto parts cross the border multiple times in production—tariffs will significantly increase production costs."
    • The imposition of tariffs could lead to immediate price hikes in consumer goods, energy, and critical manufacturing sectors.

• Diplomatic Repercussions:

  • Responses from BRICS nations and their leaders, particularly Mexico and Canada, demonstrate the potential for escalating trade tensions.
  • Krystal (53:01): "Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico says there will be no tariff war after discussions with Trump."

Implications: Trump’s tariff threat signifies a potential pivot towards protectionist policies that could isolate the U.S. economically and diplomatically, while possibly hastening the formation of alternative economic alliances and reserve currencies among BRICS nations.

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4. Other Foreign Policy Developments

Ukraine and Syrian Rebels:

• The hosts touch upon Zelensky’s possible negotiations to cede territory to end the war, indicating significant shifts in Ukrainian strategy.
• Sagar (04:20): Mention of Syrian rebels making moves to retake Aleppo amidst global distractions.

Marc Andreessen’s Debanking Controversy:

• A segment covers Marc Andreessen’s contentious appearance on Joe Rogan discussing debanking, with Matt Stoller joining to provide deeper insights.
• The debate centers on the influence of large financial institutions and anti-establishment sentiments within technological sectors.

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5. MSNBC’s Influence in the Democratic Party

Overview: Krystal analyzes MSNBC’s ongoing efforts to marginalize Bernie Sanders and exert influence over the Democratic Party’s direction.

Notable Discussion Points:

• Media Strategy:
  • Krystal (05:26): "MSNBC’s war on Bernie Sanders is part of their broader strategy to shape the Democratic narrative."
  • The network’s role in shaping public perception and policy direction within the party is critiqued.

Implications: MSNBC’s influence may further entrench establishment politics within the Democratic Party, sidelining progressive voices and fueling internal conflicts over the party’s future direction.

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6. Conclusion and Future Outlook

Krystal and Saagar conclude the episode by reflecting on the shifting political landscape, underscored by actions from both Biden and Trump administrations. They emphasize the erosion of institutional norms and the rise of personalized power dynamics within American politics. The hosts call for vigilance and support for independent media to counterbalance established political narratives.

Final Thoughts:

• Sagar (65:50): "It's Washington at its finest in terms of what can actually happen and what can't."
• The episode underscores the precarious state of American democracy, highlighting the need for accountability and transparency amidst unprecedented political maneuvers.

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This detailed summary encapsulates the core discussions of the episode, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the critical political developments and their broader implications. Through incisive analysis and timely commentary, Krystal and Saagar navigate the complexities of modern American politics, urging their audience to stay informed and engaged.

Transcript

[Crystal Ball]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Hey guys, Sager and Crystal here.

[Crystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show.

[Sagar Enjeti]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Crystal Ball]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see [e-mail] Good morning everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have? Crystal?

[Crystal Ball]

Yes we do. Cyber. Welcome back.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Thank you. I appreciate it. Had an amazing trip. Love Japan. Ohai Gosaimasu as they say in Japan in terms of good morning, very difficult language and incredible country for everybody out There. If you have the opportunity, please do. Especially if you live in California. It's the same flight time to Europe. What are you doing? Why are you flying to Paris or London? Go to Tokyo, Same flight time.

[Crystal Ball]

I would love to go to Tokyo.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It is hands down my favorite country I've ever visited. I think I'm gonna do a monologue tomorrow about everything that they do correctly and everything that we do wrong. So.

[Crystal Ball]

And you saw some breakers in Tokyo, right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

I met some breakers. I met Tokyo. Yeah. Thank you. Arigato. So it's. Yeah. About really showing off my conversational Japanese that I was able to pick up. But no, it is one of the most stunningly beautiful countries I have ever visited. Unique culture, cuisine, history sites, everything about them. I love the way that they live life. So thank you, Japan. Thank you for having me.

[Crystal Ball]

Amazing. Well, we missed you while you were gone. I'm glad, wonderful, happy as well.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Thank you.

[Crystal Ball]

All right, well, there's a lot to talk about this morning. So we got the news last night. Hunter Biden is going to be pardoned by his father. That has sparked quite a lot of conversation here in D.C. so we'll get into all of that. We've also got some new updates for you with regard to people that Trump is putting in positions of power. Cash Patel at the FBI in particular has been quite noteworthy. So we'll tell you what you need to know about that. He has also issued a new raft of tariffs threats, this time against a so called brics country. So that one is quite significant. We also have a bunch of foreign policy news for Zelensky seeming to float for the first time, potentially potentially ceding territory in order to end that war. We have Syrian rebels coming out of nowhere to take back Aleppo. As you know, multiple powers are distracted whether in Ukraine or with regard to Israel and Gaza. So we'll break that down for you. Incredibly significant development there. Marc Andreessen sparked quite a controversy about debanking when he went on Joe Rogan. Our own Matt Stoller is in the mix with that whole debate. So he's going to join us to break all of that down. And I am taking a look at MSNBC's continuing war on Bernie Sanders and their pernicious influence in the Democratic Party in general.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's always. That seems to be a never ending discussion.

[Crystal Ball]

That's an evergreen conversation, isn't it? Yes, that's right.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Thank you by the way, to all of our premium subscribers. We have a fun ask of everybody today. So what is going to happen is that Tomorrow, Chris will be doing a sit down with Pod Save America's Jon Favreau about the conversation about the future of the Democratic Party, especially in the aftermath of that incredible interview that they had. Even I had to take time of my vacation.

[Crystal Ball]

You watched it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I mean, I was up in the middle of the night and I was like, well, you know, you gotta check in every once in a while. And I was stunned. It was an incredible. Just you gotta put it in a history museum, honestly, for one of the worst campaigns in modern American history. But Crystal will be speaking with Jon Favreau about that. So for our premium subscribers, we are going to ask John some of the questions that you guys come up with. So on locals, we're gonna make a post and you can ask some suggested questions. So that's to all of our premium subscribers. It will also drop early for those as well. So breakingpoints.com if you wanna take advantage. It's gonna be a really interesting conversation and hopefully we'll make some news and it'll get some virality and all that whenever it is released publicly. So thank you guys so much for supporting our show, making things like that possible. If you wanna participate in that interview, breakingpoints.com, you can sign up.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, I'm really looking forward to that conversation because I think Pod Save has been very influential with liberals, oh, big time, in helping them understand the world around them and what to do next. I think they will probably continue to be very significant in that space. So I really want to understand what, you know, Favreau is taking away from some of these conversations that they're hosting on the platform. So definitely looking forward to that. And if you're not able to become a premium subscriber, if it's too much money for you, totally get it. No worries. If you could help us out just by liking and sharing our videos on YouTube, that also is a tremendous benefit to the show. At a time when I think a lot of people are adjusting their news consumption habits. We would love to be part of everybody's news diet.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Thank you. You're absolutely right. Not even on that. Even sending the podcast episode. One of our episodes in the last several weeks went extraordinarily viral. I'm talking like 4 or 500% more downloads than.

[Crystal Ball]

No idea why.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We have no idea why. All we can surmise from looking at it is that it's because so many of you guys share the podcast literally just by texting it. So if you do that. Thank you. Seriously, five star review, all of that, I mean, I know it sounds trite, but honestly, word of mouth is the greatest marketing you can ever get.

[Crystal Ball]

Oh, no doubt about it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's incredible to see in action in the numbers and all of that. So just thank you to everybody for spreading the good word. Let's go ahead then and start though, with what Crystal teased shocked the world last night wasn't so shocking. President Biden issuing a pardon for his son Hunter. Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. Honestly, you should put this one in a museum. Statement from President Bide Today I signed a pardon for my son Hunter. From the day I took office, I said I would not interfere with the Justice Department's decision making. I kept my word even as I watched my son being selectively and unfairly prosecuted without aggravating factors like use in a crime. Multiple purchaser buying a weapon of the straw purchaser. People are almost never brought to trial on felony charges solely for how they filled out a gun form. As he continues, the charges in his case came about only after several of my political opponents in Congress instigated them to attack me. Then a carefully negotiated plea deal agreed to by the Department of Justice unraveled in the courtroom, with a number of my opponents in Congress taking credit for bringing political pressure on the process. Let's go to the next slide, please, because this is the perfect one. No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter's case can reach any conclusion other than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son. And that is wrong. There have been an effort to break Hunter, who has been five and a half years sober, even in the face of unrelenting attacks and selective prosecution in trying to break Hunter, they have tried to break me, and there is no reason to believe it will stop here. Enough is enough. For my entire career, I have followed a simple principle. Just tell the American people the truth. They will be fair minded. Here's the truth. I believe in the justice system. But as I have wrestled with this, I also believe raw politics has infected this process and it led to a miscarriage of justice. You could almost take that straight out of a Donald Trump press release, couldn't you? And it also flies a little bit in the face of some past comments from the White House. White House spokesperson Karine Jean Pierre said on multiple occasions the president will never issue a pardon for Hunter Biden. And Biden himself saying on tape on multiple instances that he would not do so. Let's take a listen.

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First briefing since Hunter was indicted again in Los Angeles, why doesn't President Biden just pardon him?

[Sagar Enjeti]

President, I've been very clear. The president's not going to pardon me.

[Ad Voiceover]

As we sit here in Normandy, your son Hunter is on trial. And I know that you cannot speak about an ongoing federal prosecution, but let me ask you, will you accept the jury's outcome, their verdict, no matter what it is?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Ad Voiceover]

And have you ruled out a pardon for your son?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes. Okay, so here's. Here's the thing.

[Crystal Ball]

Pardon got ruled back in, apparently.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, yeah, it's ruled back. Here's the thing about it. If he had just said, I'm doing this because I can, and if we're honest, any parent would do the same thing, I'd be like, yeah, all right. I mean, let's be real. Would I do it too? Absolutely. Most people would. But. But the preening, the states, you know, there's viral tweets going around, John Harwood being like. People cannot conceive of what it is like to have a president who is so morally righteous and puts the law above his own personal interests. And then to reverse. And it just turns out you're like everybody else when you use power to further your own personal ends. Again, fine. You know, the idea of presidential pardon is already an insane thing. Why it's exactly in the Constitution. Basically has to do with monarchical traditions of the early 1700s. It's an insane tradition in the. Late. In 2024.

[Crystal Ball]

And abused by basically every president.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Abused by every president, literally ever. I mean, Bill Clinton partering, Roger Carter and his brother. I could go on forever, okay? In terms. Look at the number of insane pardons that Trump put through. And just in the modern era, even George W. Bush, Obama, I mean. Go on. The point is that every president has abused it. Every president enjoys doling out political favors and all of that. So fine, whatever, Biden, you're just like everybody else. But he literally said that the whole. His role raison d'etre was that he is not Donald Trump, is that he respects the rule of law, is that he will respect the jury's decision. So the little juxtaposition there, especially in light of what is very obviously to come with Donald Trump, just makes it seem a little bit. I'll just put it this way. Now the Democrats are in a tough bind because they made this whole rule of law. Trump is. It's ridiculous. Miscarriage of justice, et cetera. So when Trump comes in, he's gonna pardon all these January 6th people and all these other folks politically who are beneficial to him or who he's decided. What are they gonna say? It's like, you're full of shit and you always were, so that's fine. I actually appreciate the nakedness of all of it. But I'm sure this is a moral crisis for the New York Times reader and for a few others. They're like, wait, that's not who you told me it was.

[Crystal Ball]

And see, that's the part that it's very hard for me sometimes to wrap my head around, D.C. morals, because I do see a lot of liberals who are shocked and appalled by this Biden decision. And I mean, I don't think people. I don't think he should have lied to the American people about this. Like, I'm not saying that's a good thing that he did that, but I've watched this man facilitate a genocide for a year, like pardoning his son for some low level, probably bullshit charges that I think he's probably right. If its name wasn't Hunter Biden wouldn't have been pursued. I'm just, to me, does not rise nearly to the level of outrage of many other things that this man has done. So that's part of what often confuses me about some of the DC brained morality. And then the other piece of this is I do think it's kind of an acknowledgement, in a sense, of the era that we now live in, because Democrats did just run a whole election that, especially towards the end of the Kamala campaign, was all about the norm.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Crystal Ball]

Literally, it's all about democracy.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That was their whole case.

[Crystal Ball]

And voters were like, yeah, we don't really care. Like, Trump is himself a convicted criminal. He's going to get out of a bunch of his other charges because, you know, now he's ascended to the presidency, he used the pardon powers in utterly grotesque ways, including pardoning Charles Kushner, who was convicted not only of tax fraud, but also. And this man is now about to be ambassador to France as well, by the way. Was also convicted of setting up his own brother in law, who was participating in the tax evasion, like, with the federal government, was cooperating with them, so set him up with the problem. Prostitute recorded it, sent the resulting footage to his own sister in order to intimidate these people. That guy got a pardon from Trump. And the American people were like, yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We'Re cool with that.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, exactly, though. So I can't really be mad at Biden for being like, okay, that's the country we live in, apparently. I'm certainly not gonna send my son to the slaughter in Defense of some norms that have just been thoroughly rejected by the American public. So that's kind of how I feel about it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I think it's a fair point. But my point is more about Biden. It's just like, dude, that liter was your whole. Cause I was elected to stop Trump. I am physical embodiment of being anti Trump. And so.

[Crystal Ball]

And that whole project completely and totally failed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Look, I agree with you. And again, if he had been honest about it, I would think it would have been fine. But it's just hilarious to watch. In just a one month span, literally one month ago, we were having the norms election and the no one is above the law. And even to besmirch the Department of Justice, my God, to imply the politically motivated prosecution, that is a Donald Trump talking point. And now all of a sudden they're like, yeah, no reasonable person can look at this. And it's like, okay. And in a sense it does just return things to normal where everybody, most Americans are very clear eyed, as I think they were with a lot of the norms. They're like, this is bullshit. Doesn't have any impact on my life. You guys are not talking about the things that I actually care about. And so the presidents are just going to be like, okay, I'm just going to do whatever I want to do. And I could probably get away with it. Which obviously, you know, especially Biden who's basically on his way out forever. It doesn't really matter.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, he doesn't care.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, he doesn't care.

[Crystal Ball]

But it's just not gonna be here to view the wreckage that he has.

[Sagar Enjeti]

For me with Biden, it just highlights the clear image of who he always was to people like us. But to Washington could never accept his decision to not step down from the presidency much earlier in Ohio primary is one of the most selfish decisions from a party level in modern American history. Yeah, he is a villain. If we look at his foreign policy, if we look at his sole purpose was to defeat Donald Trump. It didn't work. He decided to appoint Kamala Harris. He didn't back a primary even though he personally knew and probably thought she would never win. He did it anyways. Every single decision he's ever made has been selfish. That his entire record. So if you were watching this show, no, this wouldn't surprise you. But I think again, for the New York Times liberals, for the congressman, for the people, some of these people, they believed it, right? And they voted for him per se for exactly why, especially back in 2020. And it's like O dude, you're just like everybody else. So anyway, welcome to Washington. It's exactly the same as it always was.

[Crystal Ball]

I remember all the glowing statements about what a hero he was when we.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Were at the dnc. It was nauseating, et cetera. The greatest American who's ever lived, Abraham Lincoln apparently.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean that's really how they portrayed him. And it was so dissonant to look at the actions that he's actually taken. And I think to me Gaza is the most clear cut horror that he has been not only complicit in, but I think at this point we have to say he's let it all hang out more than ever. That no, this is actually the policy that I really wanted to pursue and all of the feints in the other direction of I really wanna cease fire, that was actually the political manipulation. But in any case, I think we've been very clear eyed on the show about who he really is. And I do think that after the Kamala Harris campaign failure, I think among a lot of liberals there has already been a reassessment of the character of this man because you can't help but place a lot of blame at his feet. He indicated that he would be a one term president. He never came out and outright said it, I'll give him that. But he really led people to believe that he would be handing the torch to the next generation. And then once he got in there out of selfishness and narcissism and arrogance and a lot of people, yes men around him, et cetera, he decides, no, I want to hang onto power blocks. The Democratic primary stays in as long as he possibly can and does end up hobbling Democrats and then to add insult to injury, locked them into Kamala Harris as the choice. His endorsement of Kamala Harris really forced her on the party and made so there was no other option. And we all knew the weaknesses of her as a candidate going in. So you know, it's, he is right up there towards the top of the list if you want to look at, you know, who is most responsible for failing to end the Trump era. So you know, I thought Dave Weigel made an interesting point over on Twitter. He said, yep, Biden wanting to uphold the norms, agreed to keep on a Trump appointed prosecutor is probing his son create a special counsel to probe his own post. VP document retention kept on Durham so he could finish a Trump order probe of 2016. What did he get? Nothing. So here he goes. And I do think that sort of gets to my sense that this is the era that we're in now. And it's like, okay, Democrats apparently embracing that as well. So there you go.

[Sagar Enjeti]

All right. Well, I guess it was all a lie this entire time. Cool. Really enjoy. I mean, look, it's always been that way in a sense. Again, it's actually very gratifying to be like, finally people can just see it, you know, the people who've been shoving this down. Oh, he's such a hero. He's above the law. He's the most moral man who's ever lived. Does Abraham Lincoln reincarnate such an amazing person? It's like, no. He's just like everybody else. He's a political egomaniacal narcissist who cares more about himself and his own family than he does about the United States. And in a certain sense, that's always been the case with most of these presidents, will continue to be the case. And that's just how it is. So in a way, thank you, Joe Biden, for just showing us the truth and for that. So much of this was BS the entire time.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Let'S move on to Donald Trump. As you said, a very consequential appointment. Man, I was really sad to miss the Matt Gaetz dropout. I will say that was what a whiplash that that happened. Just woke up one day and I was like, wow, it's already over. That was it, that's all.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, I was kind of surprised that they didn't fight more for it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I was too, especially. Yeah, I don't know, we could talk about it a bit. It probably had to do with the ethics thing and all that. Whatever. Let's put this up there on the screen. Arguably the most consequential appointment and one that he's made since Gates in this regard. Donald Trump says. I am proud to announce that Cash Patel will serve as the next director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Cash is a brilliant lawyer, investigator, America first fighter, spent his career exposing corruption, defending justice and protecting the American people. Cash Patel is a very interesting figure. He's been around Washington now since the beginning days of Donald Trump. He's kind of flitted around, I think as an actor, deputy Director of National Intelligence. I remember him in the White House. He took a big role in the early days of the Trump admin, from what I remember in the declassification drive before eventually leaving the White House. Since then, he's kind of become a MAGA star online on podcasts, appearing on Steve Bannon as well. He runs his own kind of media empire, I guess you could call it. We'll get to some of the things that he's selling in a bit, but he has and this something is nice with the podcast election because so many of these people have now been on podcasts. They've just spoken for hours about the type of things that they wanna do. So he' given us a little bit of a preview. Let's take a listen.

[Cash Patel]

The FBI's footprint has gotten so freaking big and the biggest problem the FBI has had has come out of its intel shops. I'd break that component out of it. I'D shut down the FBI Hoover building on day one and reopening the next day as a museum of the deep state. And I'd take the 7,000 employees that work in that building and send them across America to chase down criminals. Go be cops. Your cops. Go be cops. Go chase down murderers and drug dealers and violent offenders. What do you need 7,000 people there for? Same thing with DOJ. What are all these people doing here? Looking for the next government promotion. Looking for their next fancy government title. Looking for their parachute out of government. So while you're bringing in the right people, you also have to shrink. We need a 247 declassification office.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Cash Patel]

Rolling papers out 24 7. And not just like ticker Tay. And not just 9 11. You're talking to the guy that's read the whole 911 report and those seven pages that people talk about. But I believe as like the guy who is an intel guy who believes wholeheartedly in the classified system of information. I believe that it has been over abused by these corrupt officials in government to hide the truth and the and enact more corrupt activities. We will follow the facts and the law and go to courts of law and correct these justices and lawyers who have been prosecuting these cases based on politics and actually issuing them as law fare. We will go out and find the conspirators not just in government, but in the media. Yes. We're gonna come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections. We're gonna come whether it's criminally or civilly. We'll figure that out.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So there you go. He's also been selling books. Let's put this on the screen. He's got a children's book currently out, the Plot against the King, written by Cash Patel, which details the actions against Donald Trump. I mean, look, let's not sugarcoat it. Cash is a loyalist. That's pretty much what he is. Yeah. And I think that's. Whatever, it's fine. I guess especially in the context of what we just talked about with Hunter Biden, he will face some difficulty in confirmation. So just to explain the FBI director, their term is actually basically, Chris Wray is set to serve three more years after his confirmation. What would have to happen? Donald Trump, of course, as the president, has the prerogative to fire Christopher Wray as the director of the FBI, this indicates that he will on day one and then put forward Cash Patel as the nominee. Now, whether his confirmation goes through is a very open question. But at the very least, he would have the ability to serve as the acting director of the FBI for 210 days after his appointment. It's possible that, I mean, look, it's certainly, certainly possible he get confirmed, right, that he actually could get 50 some senators. I personally think it will be as difficult as the Matt Gaetz and the RFK junior ones, just because of the certain makeup of the justice, the Oversight Committee in the Senate, and people like Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, people like John Cornyn as well, who has the senior position in that. But if Trump wants it to happen, it's very possible that it could happen. I mean, it seems likely right now that Bobby Kennedy and Pete Hexath are gonna make their way through. They seem to have the votes from the people that I've spoken to. And one of the reasons that Matt Gaetz dropped out is he was the one person where, even after JD took him to the Senate and they had all the meetings, they were like, it's not gonna happen. So Cash, it certainly looks possible he would, I believe, be one of the first directors of the FBI to not actually have previously served as an agent where all previous ones had a long career in the Bureau. But to be honest, I view. I mean, last time I was here, what I kept saying is, I think people should get what they voted for and should get and actually get to see what act Trumpism in practice looks like. It's about blowing shit up. And that's what Cash Patel is. So I say confirm him. Let's see it. I mean, he wants to blow up the FBI, declassify all this stuff. He genuinely is, I think it's fair to say, like an actual enemy of at least quote, unquote, the deep state, et cetera. He's for declassification, transparency. I say, great, as a member of the media, I think it'll be fantastic. So I hope he gets confirmed. I'd like to see it.

[Crystal Ball]

So Ken Klippenstein, our friend, wrote a report about. He read Cash's book and watched a bunch of his appearances and whatever. And what he points out is, while the language is very sort of adversarial to the deep state, even in that clip that we played where he is like, take the 7,000 people here, and it's not fire them or fire some portion of them, it's send them about the country. So keep it in place, just not in D.C. and what he gleaned from his book was that, and this won't be a surprise to anyone, he doesn't actually want to blow up the deep state. He wants to weaponize it against. Against Trump's adversaries, which is part of what he talks about there. I mean, I think this is a pick that says, yes, all of the things that I said about retribution, I mean, and this is going to be one of my weapons in the arsenal for fulfilling that campaign pledge. So I think people should be clear eyed about, you know, it's not like this is gonna be some wholesale FBI reform. It's just instead of, you know, and FBI already does plenty of surveillance of, like, you know, like pro Palestine protesters and lots of lefties already. But I'm going to make sure that the FBI is a consistent weapon against Donald Trump's adversaries. I think that would be the goal of Cash Patel. Now, whether he's even able to fully achieve that goal is another question, because he doesn't know his way around this agency, as you point out.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Look, these people have a career. I mean, the FBI as an institution's entire career is built on insulating itself from political pressure going back to the days of J. Edgar Hoover. And for somebody like Cash Patel and others, they're gonna fight with everything they possibly have against you. So he's got his work cut. I mean, I will say, for what you said, though, I think it's viewed a little bit differently for what he said. It seems to be the correct thing. Why are we not spending more resources on, like, what, prosecuting murderers? I mean, the Larry Nassar case is the perfect example.

[Crystal Ball]

I've got no problem with that. I've got no problem with that. But I don't think that we should, like, be. I think it's quite clear that the direction he wants to take the FBI in is not, like, to dismantle the agency in some way that, like, a leftist would want. He wants to use it in an aggressive way, but against Trump's adversaries and leftists. And I fully expect surveillance of social justice organizers or pro Palestinian protesters or whatever to continue apace. So that's my goal.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Fair enough. But I mean, Republicans won the election, so they get to govern the way that they want. Right? I mean, it's not gonna be a leftist fantasy. Anybody who has ideas is ridiculous.

[Crystal Ball]

There's a lot of misleading talk about how he's just against the deep state.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I see.

[Crystal Ball]

And that is not accurate. So I'm just trying to give an accurate interpretation of what his goals will be in that election.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Is he going to be the person who's gonna stop surveilling Palestinian Activists? No. Okay, Republicans won the election. They have the ability to govern. They're gonna do what they said that they're gonna do. I think the best case actually would be the decentralization of the agency. Also, by the way, this is a very intra DMV beef, but the Biden administration illegally shafted Virginia out of FBI headquarters and sent it over to Mar. I hope that he reverses that and he can give it to the state of Virginia. This is a big economic development thing, which is. It's an interesting DMV beef, but actually billions of dollars are at stake. The interesting thing, too, behind it is around what he was talking about with the Hoover Building and headquarters with the FBI. The question about why there are all these bureaucrats here. This has actually been a longstanding kind of question inside the agency. One of the things that he is correct about is that post 911 and post Patriot act, the FBI, the counterintelligence, and they're fusing with the CIA and other of the Intelligence Bureau has effectively turned it from a law enforcement organization into an international surveillance organization on US citizens. Now, even if you don't believe in making sure that, like you said, dismantling the deep state or whatever, simply decentralizing and getting all those people out of Washington would itself be a major net benefit. Because again, the centralization of power here in Washington has basically created all of these arms of the Bureau, which did not even exist since 2001 prior. The other thing that really annoys me are all of these MSNBC preening legal anthro. You can't inject politics into the FBI. I'm like, does anyone wanna know the history of the FBI? Shut up. All right? And first of all, they're the ones who made themselves, quote, unquote, political in 2016 with Russiagate. So it's like, you can't have it both ways. There are consequences to elections, especially one in which you had a president who's like, basically ally completely against this very quote, unquote law fare, et cetera, which is based upon him. Will it be, quote, unquote, leftist principle? No, it won't. It's Donald Trump, he won the election, right?

[Crystal Ball]

But the Republicans posture like, we want to depoliticize this agency. They don't want to depoliticize this agency. They want to politicize. Of course you could. I mean, ideally, yes, you would, but.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It'S never happened in American history.

[Crystal Ball]

But the ideal would be that you're not spying on American citizens and infiltrating and doing like, cointelpro type bullshit against American citizens. Okay? That would be the ideal. And Republicans posture like that's the direction that they would like to go in, that they would like to make the agency neutral, that they would like to depoliticize it. And that is a lie. They want to politicize it on behalf of Donald Trump. That's the plan.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I think that's fair. Again, they won. He's the party, talked this way pretty openly about what he wanted and people seem to be totally okay with it. Will there be backlash, et cetera? We'll see. I mean the real backlash I think will come from the actual agency. I would never underestimate these people. They're some of the most powerful people in America. They can, I mean in terms of the leaking operation for what they can do and all of that against you, their knowledge of bureaucracy, the law, being able to sue, et cetera. Get ready folks. Because it actually, if you even try to implement 10% of this, you will see one of the biggest freak outs in modern like Washington history.

[Crystal Ball]

I think the other thing people are delusional about is the idea that what get some fulsome accounting of like Epstein just given the fact that Trump himself has been like, I don't know about that. And multiple times when he. Declassification, I didn't know that. And yes, and I mean Trump was Epstein's best friend for a decade, so I wouldn't hold your breath on that one. Maybe some other declassification potentially. Hey, listen, that would be a positive.

[Sagar Enjeti]

If it's on the ufo. Look, JFK alone, I would be happy ufo. I'm ecstatic. Epstein, I mean it'd be great. But at this point, as you said, there's probably still too many people to actually get it out there. It'd be great if we could though. I mean, listen, again, again, the other fun thing with a 24.7declassification or whatever is almost certain that they wouldn't actually be able to do it in their traditional way where they cover up everything. And so we may get some very inadvertent and good details about some things that were happening, which I would love to see.

[Crystal Ball]

The other thing, and this will help us transition to the next pieces that we can roll through, is Trump is kind of testing the limits of how effective basically media influence can be in real positions of power. That's a good point because I mean that's effectively what Cash Patel is. He's out there selling like children's books and also these weird supplements that he claims falsely can reverse the impact of the COVID vaccine. Like Hawks merchandise, all this sort of stuff. And obviously, as you pointed out, going on all these various podcasts and being really a MAGA world influencer, Pete Hegseth obviously Fox News personality, similar, sort of like MAGA influencer, influencer RFK Jr kind of a similar deal. Obviously Matt Gaetz was kind of a similar deal even though he was a member of Congress. So there are a number of these picks that you know, their primary credential is like their notoriety or their influence within the magasphere and how that translates into actually being able to effectuate the changes that they are promising will also be interesting to watch.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So I'm trying desperately to find what is in a quote unquote novo code here. I've got the supplement back in front of this is the supplement that he has there. It says chromium, magnesium, selenium, vitamin D and zinc. Okay. I mean it's not gonna hurt you. So you know, why not?

[Crystal Ball]

Assuming that's actually what's in it. Because none of these things are actually.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Really regulated by the fda. That we gotta get Bobby on that. Right? We gotta get Bobby Kennedy on that.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

All right, let's put the next one up there on the screen. This is wild. Getting around this one. This is absolutely insane. So a New York Times has obtained an email showing Pete Hagseth's own mother sent him a scathing email in 2018 calling him, quote, an abuser of women. I mean, there's no getting around. This is one of the most insane things I have ever. If my mom ever said this to me, I don't even know. I know there's no coming back from it.

[Crystal Ball]

As a mother, I cannot imagine writing this to.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You're an abuser of women. That is the ugly truth. I have no respect for any man that belittles, lies, cheats, sleeps around, and uses women for his own power and ego. You are this man and have been for years. As your mother, it pains me and embarrasses me to say that, but it is the sad, sad truth. Continues on for a while. The mom says she immediately regretted it, and then she no longer stands by it. So, okay, that's. That's what it is.

[Crystal Ball]

But you don't send this out of nowhere.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I wonder how they got this email. My theory is she probably cc'd the ex wife who hegseth deleted, and I guess the ex wife then, you know, is leaking this, I guess fairly in terms of retribution against Pete Hegseth. He's no. What did Bobby say to me? Bobby Kennedy? He said, I have a lot of skeletons in my closet. Something along the line.

[Crystal Ball]

Didn't you say, like, I had a rambunctious youth?

[Sagar Enjeti]

I had a rambunctious youth. I think we could have said when.

[Crystal Ball]

The allegation went, he was like 46 years old or something when that particular allegation occurred.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He's a seven year old man, so 46 year old.

[Crystal Ball]

I just turned 43, so I appreciate that definition.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There you go. You are. You're the prime of your life.

[Crystal Ball]

Forgive me my youthful indiscretion in the.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, we. We could forgive everybody of our youthful indiscretion. So there it goes. Now, in terms of its Overall effect I. For everyone I've spoken to, and I just checked in yesterday, I think Pete's got the votes. From what I can tell, he's got. At the very least, he's got majority of the defense hawks on his side. He has made a lot of the phone calls. He's playing ball, it seems with most people in Washington and most of the Senators seem. I feel like Gaetz, they personally really detested. It wasn't about policy, it was really just personal. Whereas here with Hexaf, they don't know him on a personal level. They may not like him or anything, but the vendetta.

[Crystal Ball]

I bet he's a good schmoozer too.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Look, exit these guys, you don't become a TV star and nationally famous MAGA icon from nothing. You gotta be at least somewhat good at this. So I think he's probably got it going. I also think what Ruddy really has on his side right now is this gets to the Cash thing. There is something really interesting about the fact that these people just. Even the Shawn Ryan Show. How many of these nominees for immense power have appeared on the Shawn Ryan show in the last, what, 12 months? That's kind of astonishing if you think about it. They have laid out very clearly their view. They actually have genuine Democratic constituencies, which is really interesting to me because it's very rare to have people who are like FBI Director or even Secretary of Defense. I mean, Mark Esper was Secretary of Defense. Does Mark Esper have a fan club in Spokane, Washington? No, but Pete Heckseth, he actually does. Millions of people love Pete Heckseth. He. His book was number one in the whole country. Cash Patel is a MAGA star. If you are a MAGA memaw, who is out there? You know who Cash Patel is? Those are the people who are buying his books and his T shirts and all that stuff. So it is fascinating to me to watch these people become and actually see what it will look like in power. Whether it will work out, I have no idea. I mean, in general, the biggest problem that these people, always outsiders always face this when they come into Washington is Washington is a machine. It knows exactly how to deal with outside. It's like, oh, you wrote a book, that's cute. You know, I'm gonna fuck you sideways because I know exactly, you know, where all the bodies are buried, et cetera. I can drag this shit out as long as possible. That's why in general, a little bit of experience and also being an outsider, those two things are the things that really can make you successful, but, you know, I don't wanna speak too soon. It's still certainly possible that something could happen.

[Crystal Ball]

I think the other question with Pete Hegseth is if there's any other shoes to drop. You know, that's true. Obviously these allegations emerged against him claiming that he raped a woman at this like Republican conference and further emerge that he had paid her off. Something reportedly the Trump people were pissed off at him. Not that like the allegations existed, but that he wasn't upfront with him about all of that and especially the payoff details which, you know, obviously like no admission of guilt, but it doesn't look that great. Then, you know, I don't think the mom email is probably gonna be a game changer, but also doesn't look great or speak like to your character if your mother is writing things like this about you. So I think that's one of the questions is if there is potentially another shoe to drop with Pete Hegseth in terms of, of his confirmation. Another one that is interesting, which speaks to some of the potential policy direction of the Trump administration, which really does have a lot of contradictions within it at this point. You can put this up on the screen. We've got the Ag Secretary nominee and this is a bit of a rebuke to RFK Jr. Effectively, the person that Trump has picked here, Brooke Rollins, she's considered to be more sort of like corporate friendly. I'll let Sager speak to the specifics of her. But RFK Jr they write in this piece, had spent weeks lobbying Donald Trump to nominate an ag secretary who'd be his ally in a war with the sugar, soybean, corn and other farm commodity interests he argues are poisoning Americans. He meticulously vetted and put forward his own list of candidates. But Trump went in a different direction, making a wild card pick. A former White House aide with little formal experience in ag policy, no record on public health concerns driving Kennedy's agenda. That choice would be Brooke Rollins, who co founded the Trump aligned think tank America First Policy Institute. And so she's seen as being much more likely to be attuned to the concerns of industry. And this is very significant because if you actually want to, I mean, first of all, if you actually want to pull the subsidies from like the corn lobby, good luck. Incredibly powerful interest here in Washington and, you know, very important in a lot of farm states, including places like Iowa. And it's the reason, the fact that we subsidize corn so much is part of the reason why you have, you know, High fructose corn syrup.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Crystal Ball]

In all of our foods, et cetera, et cetera. Why, if you go in the grocery store, the center aisles are just basically like recombinations of corn. So having someone in this slot who is not aligned with what RFK Jr wants to see is a quite significant development in terms of his goals with maha.

[Sagar Enjeti]

As I have been trying to tell people, it's a coalition. And if you think that you, you know, RFK Jr. Let's, let's. I think he's responsible for Trump becoming president. I will say that. So he's got a lot of power and he got himself hhs. That's a big deal. But let's be honest, it's a big tent. Right. And Brooke Rollins is the former Rick Perry staffer. She created America first policy. People will remember I was talking about her before the election because I said she was a potential in the running for chief of staff. She's a very powerful woman here in dc. She's played her car perfectly in terms of getting a lot of corporate money. Larry Kudlow and all these other people behind her organization. And she was gonna get something. In fact, I'm surprised that she got something as a, quote unquote, low as agriculture. But as you said, agriculture, especially for what RFK wants to do is very, very important from the usda. But the other thing that many people don't understand is that the SNAP program, otherwise known as food stamps, is under the purview of the Farm Bill. It's actually attached to the farm bill. A major MAHA priority is to SNAP EBT dollars to be applied to junk food, things like Coca Cola, cereal, et cetera. This is something I've seen Callie Means and others in the MAHA movement talk about. I actually think it's totally reasonable. But the point is that you will need the cooperation of the Agricultural Secretary in negotiating the Farm Bill. If you want some policy like that to happen now that will have one of the most titanic lobbying campaigns in American history, if that actually ever. You guys did a segment about this, I think about how all of these food companies are just about to pump billions into propaganda for. Oh, here's why it's very important to be able to use food stamps to buy 711 pizza and coca Cola or something like that. That is going to be insane, especially. And look, there's also gonna be an organic pushback. Remember, Mike Bloomberg tried some of this stuff and people didn't like it. There's a very libertarian streak. If you drink a lot of Coke and one day you can, and you can use your food stamps to buy it, and one day it gets taken away. It might make people angry. It'd be interesting to see. And on top of all of the dollars that will be spent on the lobbying campaign, this is very, very consequential.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. In fact, I think, to be honest with you, if what you care is the food supply, I think you have a lot more power as Ag Secret than you do as HHS secretary. Because so much of the food dollars and the farm policy, I mean, that all runs through Ag Secretary. So it definitely curtails what that what the MAHA goals are going to be, what they're going to be able to look.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It will be as I thought it would be. There will be. This is not coherence. If anybody's looking for that, you are further with the wrong people. This will be the same as it was last time. There are internal constituencies now. Don't get me wrong, they have a lot more power this time. Let's be honest. You have a lot more power if you're. You have a chance at getting, you know, some of what you want. But this is government, and especially in a Republican Party, the way that it's currently constituted, where big corporations and RFK junior have to subsist in the same administration with the same lobbying powers under the same umbrella, it will be Washington at its finest in terms of what can actually happen and what can't. And this is an indication that this is reality. People who have immense influence, billionaire backers and others, they're not gonna go silently into the good night. They know how to work the system, and so that's what will happen. Again, let's go to the next part. This is equally hilarious in the context of the pardon discussion. Trump has now appointed Charles Kushner, Jared's father will be the U.S. ambassador to France. The good news for us is that the US Ambassador to France is a meaningless position. It's basically you get to be a playboy and you get to hang out and throw great parties abroad. They're usually reserved for billionaire donors. So in a certain sense, it is a change from the status quo.

[Crystal Ball]

Charles Cush nepotism instead of.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's nepotism instead of Bill oligarchy. So, you know, it's a nice little throwback.

[Crystal Ball]

Well, and I said this in the last segment just to remind Charles Kushner was the recipient of a Trump pardon in the first term. What did he do, you ask? Well, first of all, tax fraud. Second of all, he set up his own brother in law who was participating in the tax investigation with a prostitute, recorded that interaction, sent it to his sister to use as, like, blackmail and to intimidate them out of cooperating with the feds. That's what he was found guilty of and was pardoned for. And now he is ambassador to France. So there you go.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There you go. All right.

[Crystal Ball]

And we got one more say.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He said he's like one of the most venal characters he's ever.

[Crystal Ball]

Prosecutor went after him. He's the one who prosecuted him. And that's why Jared Kushner always had a vendetta against Chris Christie. When we go back to, like, 2016, after Trump wins and Chris Christie's supposed to be involved in the transition, Kushner ices him out anyway. That's who Charles Kushner is. And then we have a little more nepotism for you. We'll put this one up on the screen. So this is Tiffany Trump's father in law. So the father of Tiffany Trump's husband, Mossad Bolos, is going to serve as senior advisor to the president on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs. He's an accomplished lawyer, highly respected leader, blah, blah, blah. As far as I could tell, we don't know a lot about what his actual ideology is. He's a Lebanese Christian with respect to the Middle East. There was some reporting that he had sought a position in the Lebanese Parliament at some point in 2009, but then he disputes that. So anyway, we'll see what we get with him. But, you know, in fairness, it can't be worse than the advisors that Biden has had when it comes to the police.

[Sagar Enjeti]

In a certain sense, Trump is returning to the monarchical traditions of the American presidency. You appoint your family members as a part of the imperial family to be your ambassadors. When I was Japan, I started, I was reading a lot of books on Japan. Actually reminds me a little bit of all of that. So, anyway, there you go. Things certainly are the same here in Washington, aren't they?

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[Sagar Enjeti]

At the same time, there's been a major effect in tariff policy. Let's go and put this up there on the screen. Arguably the most consequential tariff argument that Donald Trump has made since he won the election. Trump is threatening 100% tariffs on the BRICS nation. BRICS nations the Brazil, India, China and South Africa. It's a term that was coined by Goldman Sachs in the mid 2000s. It's not really all that useful because all of these countries aren't exactly all allies, but it is important. Sorry, Russia also is the one who.

[Crystal Ball]

Is our it's also expanded and now also includes Iran, Saudi Arabia, uae, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, so I mean basically BRICS was a theory that these the quote unquote BRICS nations would rise up as global GDP increased and would challenge US Hegemony in the global banking system and in trade. So it's not about the BRICS itself. It's the idea. And the idea is basically true. Especially in 2030, 50% of global GDP will be in Asia. It will not be in Europe and the United States. So the point is that there are alternative rising sanctions centers of power. Another very important thing within the BRICS framework has been the US Insane sanctions regime on Russia, which obviously, number one, has not worked and has basically created an alternative global financial system which allows the Indians, the Chinese and the Russians to all transact. I was just reading yesterday about how the Chinese have been deeply studying how the Russian economy has been able to evade U.S. sanctions. And they're like, oh, this is a very easy playbook. And frankly, I mean, China is 10 times more powerful than Russia. So their ability to evade would be even easier than anything we have done. One reason perhaps the Russian sanctions were a dumb idea in the first place. But the point being that clearly Donald Trump has a very old school mercantilist view, especially when it comes to the dollar. He wants a strong dollar. He wants people using, transacting upon the dollar. And with the brics, we talked previously there had been an introduction of a resolution about perhaps creating their own BRICS currency. That's what this was really aimed against. And especially because it has come on the heels of Trump is currently down in Mar a Lago. He's receiving foreign dignitaries to come and to pay homage to the new king. And one of the things that has been mentioned to him obviously is the potential rise of brics.

[Crystal Ball]

I mean, those are all great points. I think this is basically a gamble that the US still has a level of influence in the world that frankly, I'm not sure that it does. And it could potentially hasten the move towards an alternative, you know, reserve currency or competing global reserve currency. Because to your point, Siren, this is kind of a long time coming. The US not just with regard to Russia, but when you look at Cuba, Venezuela, any number of other nations around the world, and actually Jeff Stein has done incredible, incredible work tracking the ever expanding US sanctions versus regime countries got smart and said, hey, we need to have our own systems in place so that the US cannot just at will destroy our economy. And so China and Russia in particular have been working to kind of sanction proof their economy. And obviously we see with Russia that paid a lot of dividends when the Biden administration decided to really drop the hammer on them. They are now the most sanctioned nation in the entire world and and yet wasn't great for their economy, but they've been able to survive and in some ways even thrive under that incredible sanctions regime. So that was a real thwarting and undermining of US power. They kind of called our bluff. And China has been working to set up those alternative banking structures so that they've helped to facilitate Russia and these other allied nations to also undercut that sanctuary sanctions regime. So yeah, this is Trump trying to throw the US Weight around. How much weight do we still have, though, is kind of an open question here. So that's why this is so incredibly, incredibly significant. There's always talk about Saudi Arabia flirting with undermining the petrodollar and these sorts of things. So it's possible that this threat works. We've already seen Justin Trudeau. We're gonna get to that. And Claudia Sheinbaum kind of talking to him like, let's try to work together. Let's try to short circuit whatever tariff regime you're thinking of putting on us. So it'll be very interesting to see how these allied nations respond because they do represent a kind of alternative already power structure within the global system.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I don't want to overstate or understate it. To understate it would say that these are not powerful and you should not consider it. To overstate it would also be like they're totally independent. Bullshit. Okay. Other than Russia, the vast majority of these countries rely all on the United States as their number one trading partner, especially China. I mean, that's why tariffs on China are so effective. Import the vast majority of their goods now though that doesn't mean that they could move to an alternative system.

[Crystal Ball]

But the other thing, I would say this, I'm curious your thoughts on this. Like, I think that people in other nations are more willing to accept pain in service of a national project than we are. Like, I think the idea that Americans trust me, you know, I mean, if you look at these nations, Brazil is a significant trade. China obviously massive trading partner. When you add to that Canada master, Mexico to top trading partners and already sanctions are threatened against all of these. Like this would definitely in the short term increase prices. We are going to cover probably tomorrow. Retailers are also just like they did during the COVID supply shocks, etc. They're going to use the excuse also to further jack up prices. And I just don't know that the, you know, American consumer, like our whole social contract is basically built upon. You're going to get low price. So there's an expectation here that maybe doesn't exist in other places around the world.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You're absolutely right. Definitely in homogenous, more nationalistic countries, they're much more willing. That said, economic stagnation and issues does not come at no cost. So in Russia, the Putin regime has survived. That said, people in Russia, they're suffering. Let's be honest. I mean, look, their economy has been able to survive, but basically it's a wartime nation Everybody relies on the state. Inflation is totally out of control. They've lost a lot of connections to the West. I don't think average daily life in Moscow has gotten better as a result of the war in Ukraine. It's possible, right, things could move on. Now that doesn't mean that they're not gonna have a revolt like Americans want them to. But it's not like it hasn't come at zero. Now remember too in China, there's a real social contract too with them. They give up all their freedoms and they get to get rich. And the Chinese oligarchs saw plenty of them in Japan having a great time. They get to roll around the globe and stay at all these fancy hotels. The middle class gets to have Huawei phones that are nice. They get to live in apartments. If you take that away. One of the reasons that there's been some issues in China is he went from 8% economic growth a year to 6%. You drop 6 to 4, suddenly you get to around 2. Like in America, things are not accelerating the same way and the social contract changes. So it's just, it's different. But you know, again, don't overstate, don't understate. Now in the Canada, Mexico case, I actually think it's totally different. And that is because Mexico, Canada and the United States, we all rely on each other. 40% of all US trade is Mexico and Canada. I mean, Texas in particular, my own home state, that place runs on Mexican goods. Like if you look at NAFTA and all that, I don't think it should be that way, but that's the reality that NAFTA created either Mexico or Canada, I believe. Believe you sent us a map. I don't think we cut it. But what is it? 40 something? 40 out of 50 states. Our top trading partners, either Mexico or Canada. Canada, especially if you live in the north, that Canada exports so many goods to the United States. It's also a major trans shipping hub, both Mexico and Canada, of Chinese goods in order to evade tariffs and other trade policy. So that is where the tariffs will be most consequential.

[Crystal Ball]

The auto industry alone. There are some auto parts. Oh, they're literally there cross the border eight separate times, back and forth in the course of production before finally, you know, coming typically to the US for assembly or. I mean, Mexico has a significant number of auto assembly plants at this point as well. So if you're thinking about every time that part crosses the border, it's going to get, you know, tariff, tariff, tariff, tariff, tariff. Yeah, that is going to add significant cost to the price of production. And that's just one example. Obviously, we get a lot of crude oil from Canada. Tons as well. So, you know, if there wasn't an exemption for oil, then you're talking about immediate spike in gas prices, especially a lot of that crude oil goes to Midwestern refineries. So in the Midwest, you would see an immediate, you know, gas price spike. So those would be some of the immediate consequences if this actually comes to.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. So Canada is lumber, oil, milk, a lot of.

[Crystal Ball]

A lot of building goods like lumber. Yeah, exactly.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. I mean, that's literally. Calgary exists. This basically is an alternative, like a US Province, effectively. But the point is that our economies, we are all very interrelated. That is a result of NAFTA and of now the usmca. Let's put this up there on the screen. This is from Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican president. She says, quote, there will be no potential tariff war with the US After a call with Donald Trump. This came their phone call after Donald Trump, I think you guys covered it, said that he would impose a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods as long as they continue to allow illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling into the United States. That immediately set off a diplomatic crisis in Mexico and in Canada. Both of those leaders reaching out to Donald Trump almost immediately. Trump effectively declared victory in Mexico or with Mexico, and he said they have agreed to stop all illegal immigration. Claudia Sheinbaum's like, well, not really, but we had substantive discussions or whatever on the subject. Both sides are declaring victory and kind of trying to cool down the temperature. Basically the same thing happening now with Canada. Let's put B3, please, up on the screen. Justin Trudeau, he came, he was summoned to meet with the monarch. With the king as part of the American. It's like when the Roman emperor would summon the governors of the provinces. And so Justin Trudeau has been spotted down in Mar a Lago. He says, thanks for dinner last night, President Trump. I look forward to the work that we can do together. Again, a source in Canadian media. Let's put this on the screen. Gave some of the details of the meeting. He says, quote, no guarantee. Trump tariffs are coming off. Trump didn't specifically say, I need X, Y and Z to drop tariff. Both sides see a solution as attainable. The key. Trump needs to be able to start his presidency by saying, I have taken steps to save American lives. He wants. This is what he wants. The fentanyl thing is huge. Quote, despite Canada's Minor role in it. Justin Trudeau told Trump he would be happy to step up helicopter patrols at the border, quote. That said, incoming Trump team likes tariffs. They will raise again and again trade deficits as a reason for them. Canada will need to be pointing out the reason the US Has a trade deficit is its oil. So there could be a solution to this one threat, but that doesn't mean that it will not pop up again. I think the tldr of it is that this is the Trump reality, is that there will be a ton of negotiation on Internet international trade. One of the reasons that Canada and Mexico are uniquely vulnerable, as I said, is all of our economies are so deeply intertwined also on oil and specific types of goods. Trump has better use of the national security designation under the Commerce Department to be able to impose tariffs on those certain goods. And he also has frameworks within usmca, which was the framework which replaced national nafta that was negotiated by Bob Lighthizer, that gives them accelerated adjudication and tariff imposition. But that said, it will be a legal mess in terms of our courts, their courts, World Trade Organization. There's intra adjudication processes and all of that. But this is the course that Donald Trump wants to take. It's very clear he was serious. He actually wants to do it. So we'll see how it actually works out in terms of manufacturing and in terms of what it will actually look like for our trading relationship with these two nations.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, and that was part of what was noteworthy about his framing this as being about fentanyl and migration, because that fits into that, like national security.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It only makes sense in Mexico. That's what the ir. I mean, look, I'm not a Canada, Stan, but like, we don't have a ton of illegal drugs coming across the Canadian border. There are a lot of trade beefs with the Canadians. They take us to the cleaners on milk and car parts and a lot of oil and a lot of different stuff. But like, that has nothing to do with fentanyl. But the reason why he's saying fentanyl is like you just said, you have specific national security designation to protect the United States of America, where if you classify it under that, you can impose certain.

[Crystal Ball]

It can't just be like, we're not happy with this trade relationship because that's not a national security emergency. And so I think they feel they have broad latitude. And I think my understanding is in the past the courts have granted broad latitude. A president gets to decide what is a national security emergency and what's not. So if he says it is, then I think it's unlikely the courts are going to be like, no, it's not really. I think he probably does have broad latitude. I think the assumption should be he probably does have broad latitude to implement across the board tariffs effectively wherever he wants to. And so that's part of the power that he's wielding here. I was curious, Sager, for your reaction to this next part. Let's put this up on the screen. You just mentioned Bob Lighthizer, who negotiated that revamped now nafta and he has been iced out so far of this administration. Reportedly, according to Axios, Trump thought he was too scared to go big. You know, he's seen as one of the more sort of like serious thinkers when it comes to tariff and trade policy in general. I know he's someone that you appreciated in the first administration. Frankly, I did too. You know, I supported the Trump tariffs against China and Biden's continuation of those as. So I wonder what you make of him being left off the list.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I think it's all personality based. I mean, the truth is that Lighthizer is his own person. He had a very successful tenure as the USTR previously. He doesn't need Donald Trump and he's not a loyalist in the same way. He's his own man. And I think, look, I think I was telling you guys on the phone, I vividly remember there was a big meeting on China tariffs and Lighthizer basically corrected Trump in the Oval Office office because he didn't want markets to crash because Trump had understated or whatever the deal was with our trade deal with China. And Trump was furious with him over that. So I think a lot of this is personality based in terms of Lighthizer was always a realist. He would tell the president, he'd be like, look, you can do X, Y and Z on soybeans. He negotiated usmca. He was a very serious negotiator in his ability to actually get a real trade framework through. Trump wants somebody who's like, yes, Mr. President, that's what we're gonna do and we'll try and figure it out. That's not Lighthizer's deal. He was a serious guy. He was always willing to push back if he needed to. But I'm personally saddened by it. I thought he would be a great pick. Frankly, I thought he'd even better pick. I thought he could be the US Secretary of State. But it's also clear that Trump may have asked for some loyalty pledge and be like, you need to pledge to me that you will always carry out whatever I say. And lighthizer again, because he literally had the job, was probably somebody who was like, I can't make you that promise. That's not how international trade works.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, well, and also works with Trump in the past, so he knows what that could entail. It's like, I'm not sure that I'm down for all of that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Absolutely.

[Crystal Ball]

Anyway, we'll be interesting to see how all of this pans out.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I'm excited to see it, personally. I really am. Especially who doesn't want to see Canada put in this place.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

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