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Kyle Kulinski
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com all right, let's talk about Ukraine. This is very consequential. President Zelensky now giving an interview with Sky News, the first time that he has said that he would accept some loss of Russian territory if he says he also gets NATO membership. Let's take a listen. No one has offered us to be in NATO with just one part or.
Crystal Ball
Another part of Ukraine.
Kyle Kulinski
That's for once the fact is that it is a solution to stop the hot stage of the war because we can just give the NATO membership to.
Crystal Ball
The part of Ukraine that is under our control.
Kyle Kulinski
Yes, it could be possible, but no one offered. But the invitation must be given to Ukraine within its internationally recognized border. You can't give invitation to just one part of a country. Why? Because thus you would recognize that Ukraine.
Crystal Ball
Is only that territory of Ukraine and.
Kyle Kulinski
The other one is Russia.
Crystal Ball
So legally, by law, we have no.
Kyle Kulinski
Right to recognize the occupied territory as territory of Russia. And here we must not make any mistake. But if we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. That's what we need to do fast. And then Ukraine can get back the.
Crystal Ball
Other part of its territory.
Kyle Kulinski
Got it. Okay. So first of all, I was told that that's Russian propaganda to accept or even be told that you're allowed to have some sort of diplomatic solution that would not require Zelenskyy to give up some territory. But the other part of this that I'm not gonna let slide because this is very obviously his bid for peace deal will look like is that is a perfect articulation of why they should never get membership into NATO. Because as he said, it would be ridiculous to recognize, quote, unquote, NATO nuclear umbrella over the currently recognized areas of control of the Russian of the Ukrainian country and then say that it doesn't apply to Crimea or the other internationally recognized border. Letting a country that is literally in the midst of a war into NATO is insane because it allows the revocation of the invocation of article and the ability and the necessity of the United States and NATO allies to come to their military defense. Also, Putin invaded Ukraine over NATO, so giving them NATO membership would be the exact impetus to Putin to say, no, you should not take a deal and you should keep fighting the war. So it doesn't make any sense on either side. If we need to give Ukraine some fake security guarantee that doesn't actually require us to go to war, fine, I will. You know, I'll allow it even though I don't want it. But NATO membership, absolutely not. So, like, anyways, this is the opening ground from Zelensky. This is how it always looks. You make a maximalist demand and all of that. I'm very curious for how it will all play out. To be honest, things not looking too fantastic in terms of who Donald Trump appointed. He's appointed General Keith Kellogg as the, quote, unquote, special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, who has previously appeared multiple times on Fox News as very pro Ukraine, even including supplying them with whatever weapons they want. We have a taste pulled by Michael Tracy from one of his Fox News interviews. Let's take a listen. Bottom line, the Ukrainians want to fight. They don't want US Troops, they don't want NATO troops. All they want is equipment, and they're going to fight this to the end. It's very clear to them that this is a very aggressive Russia move. It's targeted on civilians, it's targeted on infrastructure. You know, we went out pretty far to the northeast, and we saw some absolute, incredible destruction out there by the Russians. And it was targeted on infrastructure, it was targeted on hospitals, it was targeted on schools. In fact, the mayor of Kyiv told later that this is genocide. And I think when we look at what's going to happen over there, I believe it's very important we get them the equipment to fight. They have no intention to negotiate. They want to eject Russian forces from Ukraine. I don't care if it's a Donbas. I don't care if it's Crimea. And they're committed to it. And I talk to a lot of government officials, military officials, civilians that are out there. It's a very committed nation. If anybody doubts their loyalty to Ukraine, they're badly mistaken. And again, as I said, I think it's a fight to the finish. Yeah. I mean, might as well work for Joe Biden, you know, like, what are you doing here?
Matt Stoller
This is to the right of Joe. I mean, he's more hawkish than Joe Biden. He would be the type that we haven't done enough. We haven't shipped quickly enough. We haven't given them what they needed soon enough. You know, and to be honest with you, that actually is a more logical position than the Biden. Let's just like, dribble it on over time.
Kyle Kulinski
Yeah. I guess the only defense that I've been given on Keith Kellogg is he's a good soldier and he takes orders from Trump. I mean, okay, fine. Yeah.
Matt Stoller
But then you also have to reckon with Marco Rubio, Mike Wal.
Kyle Kulinski
That's what they say about all these guys. Don't worry.
Matt Stoller
You got a bunch of neocons in there who are all, like, very hawkish when it comes to Ukraine and other conflicts around the globe, by the way.
Kyle Kulinski
And that's the problem is that in this case, appointing personnel who again, even if Donald Trump says, go get a peace deal with Russia, if you have been on television and you previously advocated for full scale war with Russia, why would the Russians listen to you? They're going to be like, hey, you advocated for war with us. I'm not listening to you. Absolutely not with Trump, I mean, or J.D. vance, any of these figures. They have way more credibility to be able to go to Moscow and to actually talk to these guys and get something done. Nobody's gonna like it, but that's what an actual successful end to the war would look like.
Matt Stoller
Did you see the comments from Seb Gorka, who also now has a. Yeah.
Kyle Kulinski
Oh, yeah, we're sorry. Prominence in the national security adviser.
Matt Stoller
He went on probably Fox News, I can't remember, and said Trump's plan to end the war is to threaten Russia with, we're gonna give Ukraine everything they want.
Kyle Kulinski
Right.
Matt Stoller
He said, the words. He said is what Biden gave them is gonna look like peanuts compared to what Trump is gonna promise them. And that's what's gonna force the Russians to the negotiating table. And I mean, he's claiming to speak for Trump. Who knows if he's really gonna speak for Trump. Who knows if Trump doesn't change his mind. That's also a possibility, if you floated that at one point. But he's actually gonna do something different. But that kind of made sense to me and kind of squares the circle of how you end up with all of these extremely pro Ukraine, very hawkish figures throughout his government. We're not talking about just one or two. We're talking about almost every key position of power at this point. And Trump claiming that he's going to bring this war to, you know, claiming that he's going to bring it to a swift conclusion. So he's got to kind of like escalate to de escalate mentality, potentially.
Kyle Kulinski
Good luck with escalation. Right, because who's going to pull the trigger? Put this up on the screen from the Financial Times. Their own people are deserting the military en masse. They can't even find anybody to recruit. Go read their own papers. They're talking about, look at this, 60,000 cases of troops abandoning positions in 2024, double the number of the past two years. The latest Pew Research polling shows that half the population is willing to enter peace negotiations. So at this point, you can give them all the long range missiles that you want. They can't even hold the territory. I mean, go to the next part, please. It is sad, I agree. I mean, you basically wiped out an entire. It's literally like World War I for the British, the Germans and others. You took the greatest generation, some of the most patriotic folks who believed in the project and all that, and you slaughtered them en masse. And now you have to deal with the consequences. Ukraine has now lost 40% of the land that it seized in the quote, unquote, Kursk region of Russia. A literal invasion of Russia, by the way, of which we're giving them weapons to. To defend themselves. Makes a lot of sense in a war about territorial integrity. The entire thing just is ridiculous. And in terms of how this all works out, and Zelensky himself, I don't underestimate him. I think Zelensky knows exactly how to play Donald Trump. Zelensky, even though he way overplayed his hand and he attacked JD Whenever he was here on his little campaign stop for Kamala Harris, he knows at this point about how to frame negotiation to play to Trump's ego. He will be appearing, it appears, on the Lex Friedman podcast. Let's put that up there on the screen.
Matt Stoller
That'll be very interesting, actually. And I thought it was a mistake for Rogan to say no to him, because that would have been an interesting.
Kyle Kulinski
I would have taken it, too. I agree. I think it would have been a good idea, especially, I mean, at this point, so many of these leaders and whatever are going on on Rogan. So you might as well at least hear what he has to say.
Matt Stoller
Absolutely.
Kyle Kulinski
And the thing is, with Zelensky, as we just learned from the Sky News interview, this guy, when you push him a little bit, you sometimes get interesting answers. We saw this even in the past with NBC News and others, and he would give away little tidbits about how he views negotiation and trut. Or. And what it actually would mean, you know, or even when he. If he's still sticking to the maximalist position. That's equally interesting, too. I'd also like to hear his version of the 2022 invasion, because remember, he was the one saying, don't freak out. I'm not worried about an invasion. Also, you know, in terms of NATO, like, what he actually still thinks, what his, you know, historical version of the war and all of that would look like. So I'm glad Lex is gonna do it. Congrats to him for securing the interview. What I'm interested in, too, though, is how the Trump administration, its very first day in office, approaches the war, because you have two options you can continue doling out the billions that currently have been authorized by Congress at the discretion of the president. If they continue to do that, that's a sign. If they pull it away, that's also a good sign. I wanna see whether Keith Kellogg is even received by Putin or even received by the Russian government, whether Lavrov himself will be allowed back into the United States. Maybe he'll have another Oval Office meeting with Donald Trump. Frankly, I think it would idea, you know, actually have some exchange. But I want to see the level of emphasis that will be interesting about what level these negotiations take place, whether Zelensky himself is immediately here in Washington, which I'm sure he will be, to try and get a meeting with Donald Trump, how he's received and what the communiques and all of that start to look like. But escalation through de escalation is a nonsense policy.
Matt Stoller
Correct?
Kyle Kulinski
It has never worked under Joe Biden. It would make America way less safe. And that is the problem with Donald Trump appointing a lot of these folks is there is immense danger. And frankly, if he or Putin, you're just gonna be like, okay, if that's how you're gonna play it, then I'm gonna play it too. I've got all these North Koreans at my back. I got a lot of ammo, some nice suicide drums from Iran. Let's go. We can just keep going.
Matt Stoller
And Trump is very easy to manipulate. So it really matters who he puts around himself and who has his ear ultimately. One last thing that I'll say on this is I do think, and one of the parts of conventional wisdom that was proven wrong in this election was that voters don't care about foreign policy. And it's not gonna be consequential. Now. You have very few people like to play devil' very few people who said that foreign policy was the number one reason why they were voting. But when Griffin went and interviewed those aoc Trump voters, in other interviews I've seen with people who flipped to Trump, one of the main things that we hear over and over again is about Gaza and is about Ukraine and the sense that the Biden administration, the Biden Harris administration was more concerned about this foreign conflicts and endlessly shipping money and weapons to these other countries and in Israel's case, country that is perpetuating committing a genocide, that they seemed more concerned about that and more committed to that than they were to delivering for people here at home. I think that Trump's ability to convince people falsely, but ability to convince people that he would be anti war that he would bring these conflicts to a close. I think that was a very potent part of his appeal. I'm not going to say it was the only part of his appeal, but I think it was undersold part of his appeal and his ability to win a convincing victory, including winning the popular vote, which is something that Republicans have long struggled to do and which he's never been able to accomplish. So he does have a mandate from the voters to try to bring this conflict to a close. And I think they will hold him accountable if he doesn't do what he promised to do.
Kyle Kulinski
I certainly hope so. I mean, he won't get reelected, but whoever takes his mantle, if you want to. J.D. if you're listening, if you actually want to run, to be able to run on a successful foreign policy of bringing this horrible war to a close is something that I think American people actually want to see. And especially a lot of these disaffected working class voters disgusted by watching millions and billions of their taxpayer dollars being sent abroad and all this care and concern. You know, we literally have civil society programs paying yarn salary shops in Kyiv must be nice. I know a lot of people who live in Asheville, North Carolina who got their shops blown apart. Nobody's paying their salary. And, and that's the point where everyone says that that's a ridiculous comparison. But at a deep level, Americans do know it's true. They know it's true that when your prices went up and the grocery store just did my big grocery haul after a long time when you got to stock up your fridge and you're like, how is this even possible when you look at the bill for just basic stuff. And then I went back and reordering stuff from Amazon, I encourage people to go look at what you were paying for paper towels or other basic five years ago. It's crazy. You're selling that 100, 200% increase in price wasn't that long, you know, that we all remember. And then meanwhile, we've got all the money in the world for foreign conflicts. So that is something where I think it hits home to every American. And I think you're right. I think the voters would actually punish him. The question is whether we can have somebody on the Democratic side who could successfully prosecute an argument about that, which I would hope to see as well, because I think it's important to keep these things in check.
Matt Stoller
I think Gaza and Ukraine really undercut Democratic arguments when it came certainly to being any sort of moral force.
Kyle Kulinski
Yes.
Matt Stoller
And also when it came to saying this guy is chaotic and it's too much chaos when he's in office and they're looking at these foreign wars. And also I think that fueled this sense that you don't really care about me. You're not gonna really deliver for me. So I think in a certain way, even though again, very few people would say foreign policy was their number one issue, I think it was very central to the case that Donald Trump successfully prosecuted against Kamala Harris and the Democrats and it would behoove him to keep in mind as he moves forward with his registration. Hopefully.
Kyle Kulinski
Hopefully.
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Matt Stoller
Speaking of foreign conflicts and wars, this was quite a stunning and unexpected development. We can put some of these images up on the screen. The Syrian rebels have now retaken Syria's largest city of Aleppo. This is as of Saturday. That's according to, you know, groups that are on the ground. You can see some of these images. Apparently these fighters faced pretty small, limited resistance in Aleppo. I think they themselves were surprised at how easily this went. The pro Assad, the government forces that were there basically scattered. Apparently even the retreat was quite chaotic and they've continued to advance since then. So, you know, this obviously the Syrian civil war has been ongoing for quite a number of years at this point, beginning really under the Obama administration. The Obama administration famously really backing and going all in with these rebel forces. And just to keep everybody in mind at this point in particular, the main faction here at this point is effectively an Al Qaeda offshoot.
Kyle Kulinski
No, it is an Al Qaeda.
Matt Stoller
No. They have put out new rhetoric to try to be like, oh, we're different now, like we're more moderate, et cetera. But the rebels here are basically Al Qaeda. So that's who has been able to effectively retake Aleppo. And let's put this tear sheet up on the screen from the Wall Street Journal. That helps to explain the timing of why this is happening now when this group of rebels, they've continued to be able to hold a certain amount of territory within Syria even as the government has retaken a lot of the territory that had previously previously been claimed. But you have, you know, Hezbollah has really been dealt a serious blow by Israel. And so they were sort of out of, on a commission to be involved here. You have to back the Assad government. You have Iran also distracted. You have Russia distracted in Ukraine. So a bunch of the significant backers of the Assad government are kind of either under my undercut, have been dealt devastating blows or they're distracted in various other conflicts, in particular with regard to the Middle east and Ukraine. And so that created the opening here that the rebels were able to seize.
Kyle Kulinski
It's crazy to watch. I mean, you know, been covering these conflicts since my very beginning of journalism. And to see, you know, Aleppo back in the conversation is wild, especially for those of us who remember the Gary Johnson. Oh, God, what is Aleppo? One of the great moments in television history. Yeah. Like you just said, though, let's all be very honest, we've got straight up Al Qaeda aligned rebels who are the ones who have taken over control of this city. How that will play Out. Interesting to watch. It's honestly kind of terrifying because really, what we have seen, first of all, also, I can't forget this either. There are thousands of American soldiers who are in Syria illegally for no reason, who are now in the or basically in the middle of a major conflict zone. Are they going to be attacked? Last time I checked, Al Qaeda doesn't like us. And so there were actually just airstrikes yesterday from the United States and A10s that were deployed apparently against Iranian proxies. But then that gets to a bigger question. Who do we even want to win in this war? Previously, these Al Qaeda rebels were the ones who the United States backed. It's very clear. It was clear by, like, 2015 that all of the quote, unquote, moderates were dead. They had no chance. The Islamists were the only ones who had an effective fighting force, except for the Kurds, who we backed and then decided not to back. But a complicated story. The whole point, though, is that it's a mess. And what has happened here with Russia involved in Ukraine, with Iran, basically all eyes on Israel. Hezbollah, of course, has now been decimated in this war. They are no longer serving Syria as a majorly important battleground. The Assad government has lost a lot of the people who are its most effective, either fighters, funders, you know, people who would pay it a lot of attention. And they've been very weak for many years now. So they can't rely on Russian barrel bombs to bail them out of the city of Aleppo this time. Or maybe they can. I don't know.
Matt Stoller
Well, another thing that was really significant that was noted in that Wall Street Journal piece, is the Wagner paramilitary group now defunct, because you remember they were headed by Prigozhin, and he tried to do the coup against Putin, and then, oh, it turns out his airplane. Something happened. Groups. So Wagner paramilitary group was really critical in Syria, very important for backing Assad, and they're now, you know, defunct. So that may have been the most significant backer for the Assad regime, although I think Hezbollah was also incredibly important based on the reporting here as well. So the fact that Hezbollah has dealt such a significant blow by Israel, and I think your question of, like, who do we. Who would we even want to win? Is an important one because we shouldn't be left out of this equation either, because even though we aren't as engaged in backing the rebels and arming them, at least not that we know as we once were, we've continued our policy of really trying to sort of isolate and sanction Damascus and the Assad regime, which has left them also incredibly weak and helped to create this vulnerability and what is now a hot war and additional instability in the Middle east as well. So we have our hands in this conflict, obviously, as well.
Kyle Kulinski
Our hands are all over this thing. We're literally the reason this country basically burned to the ground. I mean, and no one here is.
Matt Stoller
Saying Assad is a good guy either. Or, like, there's no one, like, no good guys to choose for in Wisconsin.
Kyle Kulinski
Oh, he's a hero or whatever. You're like, okay, we have to pick between Al Qaeda and we have to pick Al Qaeda, Iran, and Assad. It's like, all right, well, it's a tough, tough choice in terms of, like, what we want. What we really want out of Syria is some sort of, you know, regional stability. Do you think Al Qaeda can deliver, you know, real regional stability or whatever to the people of Syria? Good luck. That'll be an interesting one for a lot of the religious minorities who live in Damascus and elsewhere throughout the country. So the likelihood of this just accelerating even more conflict over there is a huge problem. That's literally how ISIS was born in terms of the vacuum of the Syrian civil war. And so now we're back into this, and it's just another great example of the 40th order consequences of American foreign policy. Thank you.
Matt Stoller
One of the leaks that came out in the 2016 era was Jake Sullivan to Hillary Clinton.
Kyle Kulinski
We're on the side of Al Qaeda.
Matt Stoller
We're on the side of Al Qaeda in Syria. So don't take it from me, take it from him. And with regard to Israel, they love to see this too, because it just means that their adversaries are further distracted with another hot conflict that they now have to deal with. Keep in mind, we haven't talked about it as much, but Israel's been bombing in Syria as well. They've been upset because they felt that Syria was a hub for various weapons transfers to their enemies, including Hezbollah. So they're, you know, very. They're also delighted with this chain of events. So, you know, if Saad is able to regroup or if the rebels continue to take ground regardless, what had been a sort of tenuous stability in that country has now definitely been broken.
Kyle Kulinski
Definitely.
Matt Stoller
All right, all right, let's go ahead and get to Matt Stoller. And this whole debanking conversation sparked my. By Marc Andreessen on the Joe Rogan podcast.
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Kyle Kulinski
Good to see you man.
Crystal Ball
See you.
Matt Stoller
All right, so let's take a look at these comments that Andreessen made which sparked this whole conversation. Here we go.
Kyle Kulinski
So like for example, we have this thing called the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, cfpb, which was the it's sort of Elizabeth Warren's personal agency that she gets to control. And it's an independent agency that just gets to run and do whatever it wants, right? And if you read the Constitution like there is no such thing as an independent agency. And yet there it is. What does her Agency, do whatever she wants.
Crystal Ball
What does it do, though?
Kyle Kulinski
Basically, terrorize finance. Terrorize financial institutions, prevent fintech, prevent new competition, new startups that want to compete with the big banks.
Crystal Ball
Really?
Kyle Kulinski
Oh, yeah, 100% just by terrorizing anybody who tries to do anything new in financial services.
Crystal Ball
Can you give me an example?
Kyle Kulinski
Debanking. This is where a lot of the debanking comes from, is these agencies. So debanking is when you as either a person or your company are literally kicked out of the banking system. Like they did to Kanye. Exactly like they did to Kanye. My partner, Ben's father has been debanked. Really? We had an employee for what? For having the wrong politics. For saying unacceptable things under current banking regulations. Okay, here's a great thing. Under current banking regulations, after all the reforms of the last 20 years, there's now a category called a politically exposed person pep. And if you are a pep, you are required by financial regulators to kick them out of your bank. You're not allowed to have. What? What if you're politically on the left? Well, that's fine. No, because they're. Because they're not politically exposed.
Crystal Ball
So no one on the left gets debanked.
Kyle Kulinski
I have not heard of a single instance of anybody on the left getting debanked.
Sager Anjar
Can you tell me what the person.
Crystal Ball
That you know did what they said.
Sager Anjar
That got them debanked?
Kyle Kulinski
Oh, well, I mean, David Horowitz is a right wing, you know, he's pro Trump. I mean, he said all kinds of things. You know, he's been very anti Islamic terrorism. He's been very worried about migration, these things.
Crystal Ball
And they debanked him for that?
Kyle Kulinski
Yeah, they debanked it. So you get kicked out of your.
Matt Stoller
Bank account just so people understand why Andreessen is so significant. I mean, this is one of the most influential Silicon Valley venture capitalist funders. So what he say is quite consequential, has a lot of sway with the Trump administration. Talk to us about that.
Crystal Ball
Yeah, yeah. So this is a con, right? And it's important to distinguish between two things. Right. One is, is if you say something or you make a political statement that people don't like, can you lose access to your bank account? And that is a real problem because it does happen, and it happens to people on the right and it happens to people on the left. It's not that common. But you saw it with, in Canada, you saw it with Canadian trucker protests. You've seen it. You saw it with WikiLeaks. You saw it with a lot of pro Palestinian Advocates, they lose their Venmo accounts. 2021 PayPal said, We're concerned about people who might be spreading misinformation. So we're going to implement new policy. You do see this fear on the part of financial institutions, financial censorship. It's a real thing. The other side, though, is that you have people that are engaged in what regulators see as potentially risky activity. So this would be things like crypto. If you're using crypto and you're engaged in things that look a little bit like money laundering, or if you're doing things like taking $10,000 of cash and depositing into a bank account every day for a month, banks are going to be suspicious and they are going to file suspicious activity reports.
Matt Stoller
They're required to.
Crystal Ball
They are required to. And our banking system works by saying if a bank is suspicious of you for engaging in all sorts of activities, mostly money laundering and fraud or other forms of scams, they are required to take action. Action. Now, those are different things, right? Those are very different things. And we do know that debanking for political purposes happens, but we also know that banks are required to actually implement law enforcement and to be a little bit suspicious. It's a little bit like you go to a stop sign, right? There's no due process at a stop sign. Even if running the stop sign, it doesn't cause any problems. You still have to stop at the stop sign. So that's the way our banking system works. Now, what Marc Andreessen is doing is he's conflating these two things intentionally. And the reason he's doing that is because he has specific investments in companies. Two of them that I can think of, one called Lendup and one called synapse, that have both been put out of business by the Consumer Financial Protection Agency for stealing from customers. All right. Or for collapsing and costing people their life savings. These are not crypto companies. One of them is a payday lending lender. The other one is a fintech firm that connects people to. From apps to their bank accounts. And it was just forms of fraud. And the CFPB went after his investments, and he's mad about that. Now, the CFPB is a consumer financial protection agency. They don't actually do the things that they don't go to banks and say, we're really nervous about you having these people banking. Those are other agencies. The CFPB is the one that protects consumers. And it's also one that in the past couple of years has actually tried to say as part of their regulatory authority. We don't want debanking based on race, religion, political views, et cetera, et cetera. And they've been stopped by Trump judges from actually trying to prohibit those forms of debanking. So that's what's going on.
Kyle Kulinski
Full disclosure, I consider Mark a friend, but the actual defense of this that I have seen. Let's put the next part up there on the screen. This is from a pro crypto advocate, Nick Carter, and he writes here about, quote, Operation Chokepoint 2.0, crypto in its crosshairs. As I understand it, the defense that Nick and others have put forward on Andreessen's comments is that the FDIC and the US Government have put in place very onerous regulations, basically disallowing crypto companies to be able to do business, allowing an effective monopoly to the banks. And so what Andreessen there is talking about is about this US Government regulated SEC FDIC initiative which allows him, under this, quote, unquote, Operation Chokepoint 2.0 to basically disincentivize crypto, other fintech or whatever, innovation. So what's your response to Nick?
Crystal Ball
Well, that's not what he said. I mean, that's, you know, if Marc Andreessen is going to say, I don't like what the FDIC is doing and I don't like what they're doing to prohibit crypto businesses from operating, he should say that. But he didn't say that. He said, I don't like the cfpb. Right. Which isn't doing any of the things that he suggested.
Matt Stoller
Right. And which this person doesn't even claim they are.
Crystal Ball
Right, right. And he didn't.
Kyle Kulinski
To be clear, Nick has been like, I think he misspoke. And this is what he was talking about. Okay, well, I'm just saying I'm getting there.
Crystal Ball
Yeah, no, fair enough. But I'm only taking his comments. I mean, and he spent a while on Joe Rogan saying they're terrorizing financial institutions for political speech. Right. And then they're kind of like, well, he didn't really mean it. All right, well then don't say it. Right. I mean, the point here is if you want to have a debate about crypto and we can have a discussion about crypto and the banking system, and that's fair. But the point here isn't to have that discussion. The point here is to say if policymakers are going to regulate crypto in a certain manner, it means that if you say something that they don't like, that they can debank you. And that's a con. It's not true. What they should be saying is they should keep those two things separate and say, we want to have a debate about whether you should be able to do your crypto thing, which. And we're gonna have a discussion about debanking because you say political speech. But I think it was pretty clear in that clip that Marc Andreessen put out to millions of people that he was saying you could be debanked because of what you say. Right.
Matt Stoller
And that it's the CFPB that's doing it.
Crystal Ball
Yeah, exactly. That's right. It's the CFPB doing it. And he didn't say, by the way, I have these investments that. And ended up hurting a lot of people. And the CFPB for deception. Not like. And the CFPB came in and said, you can't do that. Right. He didn't say that either. So it's like, I'm not inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. And with someone like Nick Carter, I mean, fair enough, the guy misspoke. But you can't just say, well, yes, there are these massive conflicts of interest and he didn't mean what he said, even though he said it to millions of people. And then I'm gonna talk about the thing I wanna talk about. It's like, you can't. That's not a form of fair politics.
Kyle Kulinski
I think that's fair. I think what. As I understand it, there are two things happening. There's this conversation about the debanking for political purposes. And I do think it's pretty clear the cfpb, Rohit Chopra in particular has spoken out against debanking. So we gotta give him that benefit of the doubt. On the crypto side, I think what it is, a lot of regulatory fear. I mean, let's be honest too. There's a big right wing kind of, you know, like marriage, I guess, now with the crypto industry. And so that is the lens through which they're looking at it about quote, unquote, being debanked for these purposes. I do do think it's an interesting conversation. For example, I saw David Marcus, who previously led the Libra project over at Facebook, or I guess Meta now talking about being debanked. And I was like, well, you know, to be honest, I think that was a good thing. I don't really want the global financial system to be run also by. By Meta. So there are, there is also.
Crystal Ball
I think Meta still has a bank account.
Kyle Kulinski
Yeah, Meta still has a bank account, but the point was Actually, you and I talked about Libra a lot at the time because Libra, for people who don't remember, is what was it? It was basically like a platform for global financial transactions that would be run by Meta. And I'm getting a lot of this technologically incorrect, but it was effectively.
Crystal Ball
No, they kept changing it.
Kyle Kulinski
Meta blockchain, which they would adjudicate and run to get around the global financial banking system and effectively allow them to control payments, which has been very profitable for Visa and for all these other places. I would be very concerned about that. So I think it's a fair conversation around regulation. And I guess I'm not giving Mark, quote, unquote benefit of the doubt or whatever, but that does seem to be like the high IQ version, I guess, of what's happening.
Matt Stoller
It's just hard for me to accept that when that's not remotely what he said. He didn't even talk about crypto, does he? I mean, he's talking about political speech. Later, okay, later on he gets a crypto. But the other piece about it that irritates me is his characterization of this agency, which was inspired by Elizabeth Warren, but Obama wouldn't even put her in as the first head of the cfpb, cuz he was, I don't know, afraid. And then it's portrayed as just like her personal governmental arm and they have.
Crystal Ball
The authority to do anything, including terrorize people. I mean, he's talked about that, he consistently said they terrorize and it's unconstitutional. And all of these like ideological freighted arguments about how we never had an administrative state, which is not true. I mean, that's just not a real reading of history. I think there's a broader point here though, which is that the Trump administration is coming in on a populist wave that is different, I think, than the traditional Republican Party. And we all know people on the New Right, they have different views about how to regulate the relationship the government and the state, sorry, the government and private interests. And one of the things that's happening is there's this attempt to kind of subvert the New Right within the Republican Party by conflating legitimate points of disagreement like crypto policy with this other thing, like should we have an administrative state that could protect people? And I can guarantee you that the CFPB can be a super useful tool, tool for Trump to protect his new working class voting coalition. But it is also something that I think a lot of the billionaires that are backing him really would prefer out of the way so they can steal from that working class coalition. Right. And that's the tension. And I think the danger here among populists on the right is that they fall for the cultural arguments that are, I think legitimate, but are conflated and I think dishonestly with the broader attack on the administrative state. So that's what I worry about here.
Kyle Kulinski
What do you mean when you say how Trump could use it? Like, could you give an example?
Crystal Ball
Well, I mean, yeah, you know, Synapse is a good example, right. Synapse is a, is a company that, you know, connects. It connected new finance, Fintech, you know, apps to a bank account and they had a dispute with the bank that they were working with, which is called Evolve Bank. And there's hundreds of millions of dollars that are caught in the middle. No one knows what happened to the money. And now a lot of people are missing their life savings. I don't know if those are Trump voters or if they're Biden voters. My guess is it's probably both. And the CFPB came in and is investigating and trying to get some of the money out and get some of the money back. That would be an example. But there's a ton of other examples, from payday lenders to just Wells Fargo with the bank accounts, opening up, fraudulent bank accounts. Just anything that banks can do to screw you over or Venmo or any of these payment apps or the new big tech payment systems. There is supervision that is coming from the cfpb. All of that stuff can be really useful. Think about all the surveillance that these companies can engage in over over your payments and how they can manipulate what you pay. All that stuff can be overseen by the CFPB or by other administrative agencies, or it cannot be right. Or you can just have let Meta and Walmart and whoever just kind of work together to charge you more when they know you'll pay versus not. And I think that's kind of the open question, right, is where is Trump going to go? And we can see that this is a move from Marc Andreessen, who's a very smart guy, to push the Trump in a certain direction.
Matt Stoller
As another example, just last year they returned $140 million to consumers who were hit by illegal junk fees and banking, auto loans, remittances. Over its lifetime, it's returned $19 billion to consumers. Kyle actually was hit with some of these illegal fees that he was a beneficiary of consumer financial protection. And I think your point, which has helped me understand what's going on here, is that it's very easy to be like, Elizabeth Warren's associated with it. You don't like her. Right, right. She's this political villain, or I'm trying to create her as this political villain. Ergo, this agency that she's somewhat associated with must be part of the bad administrative state that you wanna just get rid of. When in reality this is probably one of the parts of government that has been most effective in actually protecting and delivering for, for regular people.
Crystal Ball
That's exactly right. And I would say, like another example that is not, you know, poor put upon consumers, but is maybe more what Marc Andreessen is talking about, which is competition. They just implemented what's called an open banking rule. Right. Where they said your data at your bank account. Right. Is yours. And if you want to take it somewhere else, you can. They have to make it easy, easier to switch bank accounts with all of, you know, your bill pay and all the rest of it. And that, you know, one of the reasons. So I got screwed by Capital One. They, they said, oh, we're going to pay you a certain interest rate. And then a few years later, I was on my bank account, I was like, oh, I'm not getting what happened. They're like, oh, you, you know, there's some technical.
Kyle Kulinski
I read about this.
Crystal Ball
I know what you're talking about. And then there was a class, actually they lost because they. Right. But I wanted to switch and it was. It's a pain in the ass to switch bank accounts. Right.
Kyle Kulinski
So.
Matt Stoller
Absolutely.
Crystal Ball
So this open banking rule, which, which was put into statute in 2010 and Rohit Chopra finally implemented it, is going to go into effect and that's going to allow new companies, new banks, new fintechs to come in and compete for your business. It's going to help innovation and it's going to threaten the big bankers. Well, the big bankers are really mad about it and are suing the CFPB about it. That's a big fight. Now, if you accept Marc Andreessen's argument that the CFPB is this Elizabeth Warren agency that's just out for terrorizing financial institutions and doesn't like competition, then why are the bankers suing to block the CFPB from forcing the banks to allow competition? That's kind of the question here. And I think we have to move beyond these old kind of hoary arguments about the administrative state and get to the point, which I think Trump is gonna realize, which is that this is a complex society. You have to figure out how to govern it. Right. And I don't think Biden figured that out. I don't think we've had effective governance for a long time and we need it. And they're going to have to figure out something, Right? And I think if you listen to Marc Andreessen, they're not going to figure it out. Right. And then you're going to see the same thing we've seen for a long time, which is swing backs, swings back to the other party. Right. And that's the broader point here. It's not just about the cfpb, it's about about can you accept governance. Right.
Matt Stoller
That's fair.
Kyle Kulinski
Interesting rebuttal. Thank you.
Matt Stoller
Appreciate you, Matt. Always great to see you. Thank you.
Crystal Ball
Yeah, thanks for having me.
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Crystal Ball
So you had Bernie Sanders tweeting on Monday, if the Democratic Party is to become a Democratic party, the first job of new DNC chair is to get the super PAC money out of Democratic primaries. AIPAC and other billionaire funded super pacs cannot be allowed to select Democratic candidates. They typically don't. They're not going to put their money into a DNC chairman's race. So again, for me, as the former head of a party, as county chairman and a state chairman, that to me is short sighted thinking about where the landscape is.
Kyle Kulinski
One thing that has very little to.
Crystal Ball
Do with the other super PACs and all those guys play in elections and campaigns. That's a different conversation than running for chairman and telling the people who are going to write checks, we don't want you writing checks.
Kyle Kulinski
Yeah, you're absolutely right. With all due respect to Senator Sanders, you know, you might want to join the party if you want to have some.
Crystal Ball
Well, there is that.
Kyle Kulinski
So you know, just on its face, that's a little problematic for me. Now in terms of the money. Look, that's not the DNC's issue. You're exactly right, Mr. Chairman, that these kind of, that kind of money is in local races and state races and the laws vary by state. So for the DNC to spend its time and energy on what state A says versus what state B says versus what C candidacy just doesn't make any sense to me. There's so much work for the next chair to do that would not be in the top 10 of things that I'd focus on 11 or 12.
Matt Stoller
Wow. These people are so accustomed to swimming in the waters of big money, political corruption and donor domination that they cannot even conceive of doing things a different way, as MSNBC has always done towards Bernie's incredibly common sense approach they can do little of other than scoff and sneer deriding him for not officially being a member of their little club. It's worth taking note, by the way, of who these three actually are. You've got Michael Steele, a former Republican Party chair who is considered, apparently to be a more worthy ally and advisor than Bernie Sanders. Leah Daughtry is a former chief of staff to the DNC chair. She was prominently featured in a New York Times article in 2019 about panicked Democratic Inc. Insiders who were organizing an internal effort to stop Sanders. Let me give you a little taste of that article so you can get a sense of her politics. Quote from canopy filled fundraisers on the coast to the cloakrooms of Washington, mainstream Democrats are increasingly worried that their effort to defeat President Trump in 2020 could be complicated by Mr. Sanders in a political scenario all too reminiscent of how Mr. Trump himself sees the Republican nomination in 2020 16. Because God forbid the guy with an actual organic populist following represent this decrepit party. And then rounding out the trio, you've got Alicia Menendez, who happens to be the daughter of the guy who was convicted of selling his Senate influence for gold bars and other goodies. Gee, can't imagine why MSNBC has lost half of their viewership. In fact, while I and others have said plenty and written plenty about how Democrats need to embrace a populist class war frame, the obvious first and essential battle in this fight is the one that Bernie Sanders identifies getting money out of politics. Ironically, since Trump just won while raising vastly less money than Kamala did, the old excuse the Democrats can't unilaterally disarm lest they be electorally destroyed. That is now totally bunk. They have got no plausible excuse left to keep orienting their party around the needs of their donors instead of the needs of workers. In a new op ed, Ro Khanna and Larry Lessig lay out some specific ideas for how to begin this fight. One battle is demanding, as Bernie did, that the next DNC chair ban super PAC money in Dem primaries. But the other front is in the courts. In fact, the corruption case against MSNBC host Alicia Menendez's dad provides a roadmap forward because it proved that super PAC giving could in fact constitute a quid pro quo quo. That was something the courts had previously said was impossible. Now they use that flawed rationale to strike down all limits on super PAC giving. That's why billionaires can give $100 million to Super PAC, but individuals can only contribute a few thousand dollars directly to a campaign. But plainly, if Menendez can be convicted for accepting super PAC contributions in exchange for political favors, then super PACs can be part of a quid pro quo and and thus subject to contribution limits. That alone would represent an absolute sea change in the campaign finance landscape. For example, Marianne Adelson just effectively reportedly bought our foreign policy with a $100 million contribution to a Trump super PAC. That's why evangelical end time Zionist psychos like Mike Huckabee are now in key positions of power. If she could only kick in say five or $10,000, we might have gotten a little bit more sane foreign policy team out Trump. And that is obviously just one example Trump's political project. It's largely not that antagonistic towards billionaires, which is why so many have backed him. They get their tax cuts and their government goodies. All they have to do is to stay on Trump's good side. His villains are immigrants and cultural elites like Hollywood and academia, so he can fully pursue his political project while sucking up hundreds of millions in billionaire cash with little conflict. For Democrats to answer Trumpism, however, they need to go full class war. And you ain't waging capital class war as long as your entire party apparatus and leadership class is designed to cater to billionaires. In their op ed, Khanna and Lessig say that this dynamic results in what they call golden handcuffs. The treasure the Democrats raise from the billionaire class then locks them in to a status quo friendly orientation. And you can actually see those golden handcuffs snap into place in real time over the course of the Harris campaign. My friend Branko Marcitic over at Jacobin ran the data and I have yet to see anything more compelling in terms of understanding Kamala's momentum, stall and eventual loss. So if you look at this chart, the blue line you see here tracks quote, democracy rhetoric over the course of the campaign. That would include the use of words like authoritarian, checks and balances, insurrection and the like. The red line tracks, quote, anti elite rhetoric over the course of the campaign. So that would be words like elites, billionaires, corporate greed, things like that. You can see as the campaign went on, Kamala's brother in law and uber exec Tony west got his way. The campaign backed away from their price gouging corporate grade rhetoric. They put Tim Walls on the shelf and they leaned into the Liz Cheney strategy. It was a disaster. Now we've covered here the research from the center for Working Class Politics that found democracy rhetoric was the least effective of all messages for working class swing voters. Conversely, a populist economics pitch was the most effective. Effective and yet the most powerful ad that the Kamala campaign cut, which focused on price gouging and greedy landlords never even saw the light of day. That makes no electoral sense. It only makes sense once you understand that the campaign's first goal was not to win, but to keep their big money backers happy to not rock the boat. Now, if you don't change that dynamic, this party is never going to change. But of course, no one should be under any illusions of the difficulty of accomplishing this shift. Because not only are messages and issues selected to put donors at ease, candidates are as well have you ever wondered why so many politicians, both left and right, are bland, talentless, well, credentialed hacks? The reason is they were not selected for their deep insights or rhetorical skills or leadership prowess. They are selected because they are either themselves wealthy self funders or because they are skilled at separating rich people from their money. That was the secret to Conlo's success. And it's the reason why so many of the Democrats in leadership are from New York and California, because that's where the money is. So if raising money is your primary skill and the key to your political power, you are probably not going to be too eager to shift to a model that might actually prioritize not being repellent to voters. Now, of all the questions facing Democrats as they consider a new chair, this one is not non negotiable. Will they ban big money from party primaries? That answer will tell you whether Dems are serious at all about change or, as Bernie and I unfortunately suspect, just interested in keeping their lucrative racket. I know this is a little bit of a weedsy debate, but it's an absolute.
Kyle Kulinski
And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today@breakingpoints.com.
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Podcast Summary: Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar Episode: December 2, 2024: Zelensky Caves On Territory, Syrian Rebels Take Aleppo, Stoller Debunks Andreessen On Debanking, MSNBC Scoffs At Bernie In DNC War
Timestamp: 01:54 - 03:36
Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti delve into a significant development in the Ukraine conflict: President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent concession to potentially cede some Russian-controlled territory in exchange for NATO membership. This marks Zelensky's first public statement indicating flexibility on Ukraine's territorial integrity to secure broader international support.
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Timestamp: 02:23 - 08:50
The hosts critique the Trump administration's approach to the Ukraine war, focusing on the appointment of General Keith Kellogg as the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. They discuss how Kellogg’s hawkish stance differs from traditional U.S. diplomacy and speculate on its effectiveness in negotiating a peace deal.
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Timestamp: 18:38 - 25:00
The podcast shifts focus to the Syrian civil war, reporting on the unexpected retaking of Aleppo by Syrian rebel forces, identified as an Al Qaeda offshoot. The hosts analyze the broader implications of this shift, considering the diminished role of traditional backers like Hezbollah and the defunct Wagner paramilitary group.
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Timestamp: 25:00 - 45:21
The discussion transitions to the contentious issue of "debanking," sparked by comments from venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. Matt Stoller analyzes Andreessen's conflation of legitimate financial regulations with political discrimination, arguing that Andreessen misrepresents the role of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).
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Timestamp: 46:54 - 58:20
Bernie Sanders's critique of Super PACs within the Democratic Party is examined, alongside MSNBC's dismissive response. Sanders advocates for eliminating Super PAC influence to restore grassroots democracy, a stance that faces ridicule from mainstream media and party elites.
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Timestamp: 58:20 - End
Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti conclude by emphasizing the importance of addressing financial and political corruption within the Democratic Party to align more closely with voter interests and reduce the influence of wealthy donors.
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Summary: In this episode, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti tackle multiple high-stakes international and domestic issues. They critically analyze Zelensky's tentative negotiations with NATO, critique the Trump administration's hawkish Ukraine policies, and highlight the alarming resurgence of extremist factions in Syria. Domestically, the conversation shifts to the debanking debate, debunking claims of political censorship while underscoring the importance of consumer protection agencies like the CFPB. The episode culminates in a robust discussion on Bernie Sanders's call to eliminate Super PAC influence in the Democratic Party, advocating for systemic reforms to prioritize grassroots democracy over wealthy donor interests. Through incisive analysis and notable quotes, the hosts provide a comprehensive overview of the episode's key discussions and insights.