← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
1/26/26: Gov Shutdown Imminent, Revolt After ICE Shooting, Chinese General Purged
00:44:23
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Podcast Host (Ad Read)
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Ryan Grim
Hey guys, it's Adam Blake and honors home from this Is Important. This Is Important is presented by Heineken 00. It's funny. People turn into full on detectives the second we show up with a Heineken 00. Suddenly we're getting all the questions dry. January, are you training? Doing some big new wellness thing, bro. And half the time I'm like chill dude, relax, there's no headline. Sometimes you just want to Enjoy a nice Heineken 00 and it doesn't have to be any fuss about it. Yes, it's true. We just like having a great tasting, alcohol free option that fits wherever we are. Weekday dinners, office hangs, backyard nights, or those quick gatherings that somehow turn into hours. Sometimes it's as simple as I just want something that tastes great. Zero alcohol. Great taste. Now you can available at your local Heineken retailer or for delivery at heineken.com, must be 21/plus to purchase.
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Ryan Grim
Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
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Breaking Points Host
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Ryan Grim
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Ryan Grim
We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you@breaking points.com.
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Ryan Saavedra
Funding for the federal government runs out on Friday. And the killing in Minneapolis has shaken up what looked to be a glide path to likely avoiding a shutdown into what is now a wall that the Senate is going to crash into. We can put up this first element from Chuck Schumer. So Chuck Schumer has met with his Senate colleagues and in the wake of the killing of Alex Preddy, rank and file Democrats have been livid and saying that they're drawing a red line here, that they have no intention of, of supporting government funding if it includes money for the dhs. And so Sagar, what's, what's going on here? So last week the House passed a bunch of different spending packages and then left. So credit to Speaker Mike Johnson, we could say, I think this is one of the first times that the House has actually passed the normal appropriations bills the way you're supposed to do it in like decades, practically. Like the Congress has been completely broken. They put it together and Democrats did this too clever by half move. This is before the killing. I think it was on Thursday night that it passed through the House. What they did is they, they gave Democratic support for these Republican measures that were not related to dhs. And it allowed them, allowed Republicans to then separate out the DHS spending package. Democrats then all, except for like six of them or so voted against that. But leadership knew that the strategy that the two parties were taking was going to move federal money for all agencies through, but it allowed Democrats not to have their fingerprints on the ice money. So that's kind of where the politics were leading up to Thursday. The Democrats didn't want to be associated with DHS spending but were willing to play games in Washington that would allow that, allow us to avoid a government shutdown.
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Ryan Grim
Right.
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Ryan Saavedra
That, that all changed because the shooting. So now what Schumer is demanding and he has, as according to my sources in the Senate, unified support among the caucus for a strategy that says we will fund all of the government except for dhs.
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Ryan Grim
Yep.
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Ryan Saavedra
So we don't want to shut the government down. We want to do what we did over in the House, pass all these bills separately, keep everything open. FEMA especially because we're in the midst of this horrific storm with, you know, thousands out of power, millions affected. But we're not funding DHS until there are reforms. So what that does is it they think at least that it puts then Republicans in the position of saying, no, we're going to shut the government down unless you give us money for ICE and CBP without any reforms whatsoever. And that feels kind of untenable given the public position that, no, this needs to be reined in.
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Ryan Grim
Yeah. Let's put the tear sheet next up on the screen. And the most significant part of this, as Ryan is saying, it's not the Progressive Caucus, it's that senators like Cortez Masto, Jackie Rosen Angus, independent, Maine. Tim Kane.
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Ryan Saavedra
Right.
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Ryan Grim
Mark Warner, Mark Kelly Martin, Ryan Schatz Martin. These are people who probably don't even.
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Ryan Saavedra
Know for good reason. Right.
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Ryan Grim
Unless they're literally your own senator. And even then, you probably don't really know who they are when those people vote. No, it's a big deal because what it means is we'll have at the very least a partial government shutdown. It is a bit complicated. Ryan, as I've been understanding ending is apparently ICE actually does have the money to continue operating because of the one big beautiful bill back in 2025. However, this would effectively create a DHS shutdown. And I mean, it's basically just about inflicting pain. And they're like, look, we won't fund any of it, by the way. I mean, don't underestimate, like tsa, all these other agencies would likely start to go without. They would go without potential paychecks and all that. But this one could actually go on for a much longer time because it's only the DHS funding being held up. And I don't really see how they could possibly give in without significant concessions by the government here, which are not forthcoming.
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Ryan Saavedra
Right.
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Ryan Grim
While you and I have been talking. Go ahead, go ahead.
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Ryan Saavedra
No, and you tell me, but my sense of the Republican Party is that, and Senate Republicans is that they're not going to agree to pass the other spending bills unless they also get dhs, which means you would get a full government shutdown. What's, what's your sense of whether. Because then if they do, I think they would argue if we do that Democrats are just never going to give us dhs.
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Ryan Grim
I've been so focused on the shooting, I haven't worked my phones on that one. I will. And Try to have an update for everybody. My general sense is they're going to take the order from the White House and the White House is going to have to decide whether they want a partial government shutdown or whether they want to have to go through another total government shutdown. My sense, this is my general reaction. If I'm the White House, the last thing I want is a total government shutdown over ICE funding. That's a disaster because the entire public will be like, yeah, that whenever it comes to. They're like, listen, you know, whatever. And by the way, we just went through the longest government shutdown in US History. Wasn't that bad, right? Everybody kind of got through it. It really was barely even a news story. Yes, it could have been bad whenever it came to the airlines, but this time around, you know, the Dems really have a much stronger thing to stand on considering the events just happened. So if you're the White House, you actually don't want the country to really be paying a total amount of attention to a total government shutdown because the pressure will start to come on you to actually do something about ice, which most people are saying is completely out of control. So you may want a more partial government shutdown. Now, I could be wrong here. There could be some chicken and all of that going, going around. So don't, don't rule that out. But I think the democrats are on 10 times stronger ground this time around than they were last time around. I also think that they're starting some cracks, beginning to show the Republican side. Let's put the next one up here on the screen. And again, Ryan, this is the stuff where it's funny trying to explain Washington to people. Let's put D3 guys, please. Is the chairman, Representative Garberino, Andrew Garbarino has formally requested testimony from ICBP USCIS leaders at a full committee hearing. Quote, congress has an important responsibility to ensure the safety of law enforcement and the people they serve and protect. So when the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, a guy, again, you've never heard of, when these people do.
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Ryan Saavedra
Have power for it, that he's a member of Congress and the chairman of.
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Ryan Grim
Committee, yeah, that's a chairman of a powerful committee. But when committee chairman who have immense power but almost never use it, almost never break from the administration in the more modern era, when those people start being like, yeah, no, you're coming before Congress and you're going to have to start asking, by the way, this was not requested by the White House. They do not want this. The Very last thing they want is for their people to be in front of a House committee under oath. I mean, Ryan, why don't you explain again, for people who don't watch? Like this means every Democrat on the committee gets five minutes to question you on the right. It's a disaster. It's not good whenever you're in power.
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Ryan Saavedra
That's right. And if, and if anybody thinks that, oh, well, maybe this is just routine and it's a coincidence, you're not sending a letter like this out on a Saturday.
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Ryan Grim
Exactly.
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Ryan Saavedra
And it begins by, you know, they sort of try to suggest that there's some routine nature to it. The letter begins on January 15th. You know, you know, committee staff invited you to testify now. Then he said, but then he says, today I am formally memorializing the previous invitation. And to drop that on a Saturday right after the killing is sending a very clear message. And it's. And it's. Yes. So to your point, what this. And he's saying. And they, you know, he gives them a bunch of different dates, the latest one being March 18th. So he's kind of allowing them to at least, you know, push it out, you know, a significant amount of time, but that March 18th is going to be here before you know it, and God only knows what's going to happen in cities between now and then. And you're right. This, this gives, you know, every member of that committee, Democrat and Republican, and Republicans, I think, are feeling the pressure, too, that you're gonna. I think you'll see some adversarial questions from Republicans by then. And then that creates viral clips and midterms.
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Ryan Grim
All of. Remember, all these people are going to have to go back to their district pretty soon. And, you know, they have to do those mandatory meetings. It's not going to be good, folks. I mean, I'm telling you right now, it is not going to be good. Every Republican on Capitol Hill, Ryan, as you and I know, even when they're in session, they're all going to have mics stuck in their face. What do you think about what happened here? And ever. And even a single misstep. You're going viral. Congratulations. Next one. This one. This seems very significant. I'd like for you to explain it to me. So this is the ranking committee chairman, Benny Thompson. Sorry, ranking Democrat on the committee, guys. Let's put D4 up on the screen. He is saying that the Senate must vote against funding. So that's already there. But he also says the House must take immediate steps to impeach Kirsty Noem. So again, Benny Thompson, not a household name, not really somebody who we would all know is, is the top Democrat on the committee is like, no, we're going to impeach Kirsty. No. Remember, they impeached mayorkas. The Republicans did under the Trump, under the Biden administration. I could easily see this become a rallying cry if Democrats were to take control of the midterm. So could you explain the significance of this?
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Ryan Saavedra
Yeah, well, respected veteran Democrat, somebody that the party establishment, you know, is a member, you know, you know, in good standing of the party establishment. This is not somebody who's like some, some rock thrower from the sidelines. And the reporting that we're seeing this morning is that, you know, Trump himself is, is quite upset with the way that DHS has handled this and in particular own goals like Kristi Noem going out and saying, this is a guy who was trying to massacre people, he's a domestic terrorist, he brandished his, his weapon when everybody can see that none of that happened. And so it, it goes to the, the credibility of the, of the administration, the seriousness of it and puts then this would then put Republicans in the position of defending her when, if anybody's, and also she's also been an advocate, her, and she and her ally, Corey Lewandowski, an advocate for this, you know, very aggressive kind of public show of force, not just in Minneapolis but elsewhere where they've, where they've tried to deploy it, that their argument has been this is, you know, let, let's, let's bring a very loud hammer to make the point against some of the administration, the reporting, as Tom Holman and others have said, no, let's, let's go, let's go after people that we know have criminal records. Let's do targeted enforcements because we need to maintain public support for this mandate that we have to do mass deportations. If we don't, we're going to lose the mandate and you're not going to get what you want out of that. So the idea and the execution both seem to be falling apart. And so Nome could end up being the fall woman for this. Do you think that she is vulnerable or is she protected by Trump's belief that second term, you, you don't let you don't you, you give zero scalps, give no ground.
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Ryan Grim
Yeah. I mean, literally, as you and I are speaking, you may have missed this. Donald Trump just sent out this truth quote. I'm sure Crystal and I will have more to say about it tomorrow. I am sending Tom home into Minnesota tonight. He has not been involved in that area, but knows and likes many of the people there. Tom is tough but fair and will report directly to me. And so what is actually even more significant than that is that the press secretary put out a tweet that this morning, Tom Homan will be managing ICE operations on the ground in Minnesota to continue arresting the worst of the worst. In addition, Tom will coordinate those investigations into the massive, widespread fraud that's resulted in billions of taxpayer dollars. So, basically, Tom's taking over completely. There's been a lot of reporting here.
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Ryan Saavedra
Cbp. What, like ICE keeps catching these strays for.
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Ryan Grim
Yeah, no, you're right. And that is kind of the funny thing is that this was entirely Border Patrol, which also Bevino is literally the head, you know, of cbp. Right. And so this is where it gets confusing. America, talk about ice, but it's not just ice, really. And in fact, there appears to be some conflict. A lot of ICE officers are pissed off at CBP because they're saying they're the ones who do all of this clownish behavior. There is a theory inside the administration, I don't know how much credence to give this, that Beno and Bavino, Kircino and Corey Lewandowski have all been major proponents of kind of this flood the zone inside the ST street strategy, like, for example, in Chicago or prior to that in Los Angeles. Whereas Tom Homan, who is a veteran, you know, working in I, in ICE and immigration enforcement, is like, no, I only want to target criminals. We'll see. Okay. We really have no idea exactly how all of that is going to look, but it's very clear that she is the fall woman in the interim, at least in Trump's eyes. But it's just not going to be enough, in my opinion. I mean, yeah, this will not end.
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Ryan Saavedra
Yeah. Homan shocked people right after the shooting of Renee Nicole Good. By giving an interview where he said, I think we. I'm. I can't. I can't weigh in on this. I. We need to await an impartial and independent investigation, and then I can have more of a comment.
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Ryan Grim
Right.
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Ryan Saavedra
And the reporter said, well, Kristi Noem has said this. You know, Stephen Miller has said this. JD Vance has said this. He's like, well, they can speak for themselves. I'd like to see an investigation. And it was. It was very jarring for people like me, you know, who've been very critical of Homan over the years, to be like, oh, that's. That's like what you want from a government official in a moment like that, it's a cop.
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Ryan Grim
Yeah. At the end of the day, you.
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Ryan Saavedra
Can hate the investigation.
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Ryan Grim
Right?
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Ryan Saavedra
Right. Yeah, yeah.
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Ryan Grim
It's like normal cops are like, I don't, you know, that's not the way that we do. I mean, by the way, you know, this is a retcon. But like, if you follow Tom Holman, I followed him for many years is what was his. Always critiques. He'd be talking about enforcing the law. Right. Like, he was a big proponent of law enforcement. He was massively critical of the Biden administration for not enforcing immigration or border law and allowing tens of millions of people to come here illegally. Like, that was fundamentally like him. He had much more of a different view. And he also always. And I remember this because he would talk about it during the Obama administration too, a laser focus on criminal enforcement. Right. Which was some of the selling point originally around ice. And at this point, I mean, we're so far from that to achieve. We can say it's about immigration. Sure. But like he. The rhetoric coming for the administration has always been like worse of the worst criminals and all that are the only ones being deported. And that is just simply, obviously it's not the case. We've talked about that here. But I think most importantly for what the future looks like, we'll have to keep laser focus on the ground. Because, look, I mean, at this very same time, there are internecine civil wars inside the government. All of this kind of belies the point that there's going to be a shutdown here. And I think it's going to go on for a long time. I'm curious for your view. I do not see how they could possibly break.
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Ryan Saavedra
And the key, the key, key detail here is what the democratic demands are going to be when it comes to the reform of, of DHS and reforms within ICE and cbp. Obviously they're not. They can't demand at this moment to abolish ice. They need to take power if they're going to abolish ICE or reform cbp. But they can, they can get reforms now through this moment that they have leverage. And the thing that I'm hearing is they're going to be demanding will be. And I think the most important thing they're demanding is get it, get rid of these daily quotas. It is this quota that Stephen Miller has insisted on putting on the federal government, both DHS and cbp, for X number of deportations every day. And if you know how a bureaucracy works if there is a kind of accountability in that bureaucracy for a, for a number like you have to hit this number or you're not getting your promotions, you're going to be, you're going to be fired. That bureaucracy will then push aside all of its other rules like protecting civil liberties and making sure you're, you know, only targeting, you know, people who are not citizens, for instance, and instead will just start sweeping up as many as they possibly can and then deal with the fallout of that later because they've got a number to hit. And so Democrats are saying, get that number out. Just go after violent criminals. Forget the numbers. They're also going to demand that they no longer be masked up. And I think some of the other demands are still being worked out among the caucus about what they think is a combination of achievable and also to the public feels reasonable to put Republicans in a position of saying, no, we're shutting the government down to make sure that these guys can still wear masks and that they have to hit their quotas.
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Ryan Grim
Right? Yeah. I mean, honestly, that'd be smart. Masks alone would be a massive victory if they could even extract that. And I, I could see a world. Look, Trump, here's the thing, here's the funniest thing about Trump. Trump yesterday did a Wall Street Journal interview. He didn't even defend the ice Age, the cbc. He was like, I don't know, I don't like this. He goes, we'll see. You know, there'll be an investigation. So like he is the one most out of step with his own government, which is of course like part of the madness of the entire thing. But just to show everybody, like, he may be willing to cut a deal very different than some of the other people in the administration might be willing and able to. So we'll see. I think this is going to be a long.
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Ryan Saavedra
His opening bid. His opening bid seems to be, he wants, as you were mentioning earlier, he wants sanctuary laws banned.
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Ryan Grim
Right, Fine. You can do that through Congress. Chris, go ahead.
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Ryan Saavedra
Yeah, Kristi Noem had some, sent some weird letter to Minnesota where she said, I'll leave if you give me voter access to voter roll.
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Ryan Grim
Pam Bondi. Oh, yeah, that was a very strange letter. I did read through. It was like a three ring thing, was like, end sanctuary policies, cooperate with us. And also something about like, we need to evaluate your voter database to ensure there hasn't been election fraud. Yeah, yeah, okay. Democrats are like, yeah, yeah, well, that's not happening, obviously. And so that is, I don't know, I'm curious, I'm really curious to see how the administration so far already they're showing signs of weakness. Tom Homan being sent over. I mean, clearly it's like a message of like, okay, we're sending somebody new. So that's interesting in and of itself. But with the shutdown, they have to make an explicit choice over they want the entire government to shut down over ICE at a moment of incredible public outrage. And whether they'll be able to stomach, you know, supposedly standing up against the Democrats on something like that for a prolonged period of time, I suspect that they would lose that battle. Personally.
- [22:15]
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Ryan Saavedra
So we're starting to see cracks in the foundation of maga's support for some of these mass deportations from people in that world or adjacent to it. Whether we got Tim Dillon, Marjorie Taylor Greene or Dave Smith and some others who go through some of these. Marjorie Taylor Greene I have to check myself because I'm constantly seeing things from Marjorie Taylor Greene that I, I don't just like not disagree with, but I'm like, that was extremely well said. Where, where is this coming from? Geez.
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Ryan Grim
Yeah, there's a meme. We're calling it strange new respect from Arjewelry Green.
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Ryan Saavedra
Strange new respect. Banger after banger. And so, so here is now now former congresswoman and she, she asks people to go through an exercise, a mental exercise to try to figure out how they would feel if the pictures were reversed. She says maga, consider it like this. We lost our minds when we watched Biden's FBI track down and tracked track down. Sorry, jumped around a little bit there. But basically she's saying imagine if Biden's FBI, which was rounding up people who participated in January, January 6th. Imagine if you have conservative either protesters or independent media figures who are outside the home of somebody where the Biden's f. Biden's FBI is like smashing the door in and they're filming. What they see is tyrannical overreach from Biden's doj. Biden's FBI agents then throw two women down onto the ground for no discernible reason whatsoever. Just because they're, they're filming and, and the agents can't can do it. The, the MAGA guy who's filming then gets in between the two women and the FBI agent. FBI agent then bear sprays all of them, throws them to the ground and within a matter of seconds has shot the MAGA guy in the back repeatedly. Then steps back and empties the clip into them. And then instead of providing, and I'll add this, instead of providing medical care, they start go counting bullet holes that they put into the MAGA person. She's like, try to put yourself in that position. And then once you have an ethical foundation, then respond how you would politically. Where is mtg? Now I see the Marjorie Trader Greene, like, is, has she gone? Has she hit him too many times to still be able to pack a punch? Or is the fact that she's standing up on principle allowing her to maintain some of that credibility? Because it's.
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Ryan Grim
I don't. Yeah, I don't know Marjorie's game. I really have no idea. She's rich, she's got a fiance. I think she's probably just going to live a good life in Georgia and she'll keep posting through it. I'm not really sure if she has any bigger ambitions. It'd be interesting to see if she did. The important point beyond it is to give look, this is kind of the point of this block. There needs to be a permission structure for people who are like, I'm not liberal, but I'm really, really upset, you know, about this. That is the gateway, I think, for Marjorie Taylor Greene and for a few others, you know, that we're about to cover. And I think that's actually the most important part of watching this is to see the fish, like the fissures start to break and to also see some juxtapositioning and positioning for where things may end up. Our producer Griffin, thinks that this is the most important one. So we're going to put this one up here on the screen. E3. And you know, I've been thinking about. I think he might be right. Let's put E3. Megyn Kelly's tweet up here. She says real Donald Trump should pull ICE out of Minnesota and announce that there will be no more immigration enforcement in Minnesota at all. All illegals in the US Are encouraged to move there. If any illegal is found outside of Minnesota gets deported, they can never apply for reentry. Moreover, every single asylum seeker should be told no application will be considered unless the person is living in Minneapolis St. Paul. So basically doing the equivalent of Texas and all of them busing illegals to blue states. One of the most brilliant political moves that the Republicans pulled throughout the Biden years because it created immigration chaos across the nation and it made it a salient issue and kind of spread and showed and highlighted what was going on. This is the own, this is the solution that I see has the most likelihood of happening. Because it's a sneaky way of saying, okay, we're done, we give up. We clearly lost. Let's pivot to this type of situation. And I've seen it now echoed by Katie Pavlich, another conservative commentator. I really think that this, these are sneaky ways for them to try to declare victory, and this is very Trumpian way to try and do it while trying to accomplish your point of, you know, drawing attention to Sanctuary City while at the same time tacitly having to admit this shit is not working and it's a disaster.
- [29:48]
Ryan Saavedra
Right? This is the, you can't fire me because I quit move. And it, and it's, it's perfect. It's like, oh, you want to be a hellhole? Fine. We're. We're too good. We're too good for you anyway. Like, we were just trying to help, but clearly you don't want our help and so you don't deserve our help. And so, you know, we have open borders within the United States. So I don't exactly know how they would enforce this policy. Like, you sense if you say you have to live in Minnesota, like there's an open border between.
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Ryan Grim
It's a no go zone.
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Ryan Saavedra
Minnesota and its surrounding states, you can just drive right across it. I don't know if anybody's ever driven around the United States. We have open borders. Drive from Maryland right into Pennsylvania. No. Yeah, no border.
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Ryan Grim
I could just.
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Ryan Saavedra
Border guards.
- [30:30]
Ryan Grim
I could see that. I, I think Griffin is right. I think that sneakily might be exactly the way that this entire thing ends up. Let's move now to Tim Dillon. People have complained that we play 2 Tim. Too many Tim Dillon clips. But, sorry, I mean, he's, he's very entertaining. And of course, he is also a, you know, he's a lodestar, if you will, of this demographic of, you know, look, he's a cultural kind of libertarian, anti dei, left and ridicule and all of that. And I think what he also signifies, this is the most important thing I've been thinking about. It was transgressive to be pro Trump and. Or right wing in 2024. Right. The dominant culture was pro Biden or pro Kamala. It was genuinely transgressive, especially on the Internet, you know, to be like, no, I hate the left for X, Y and z reason. Now. I think it's genuinely transgressive in a moment of, you know, federal governments trampling on second amendment rights and, and ICE and all of this other stuff to actually just be like, A left wing lib. And so to watch, you know, to be tip to see Tim. What I see, I'm not saying he's calculating or anything like that. What I see is very clear, clearly, with the, you know, with these statements, which again is somebody who is fundamentally, you know, suspicious of like establishment and or bigger powers, is looking and locking in on the Trump administration and kind of using that for purposes, not just for comedy, but also for political rhetoric. Here's what he had to say.
- [31:58]
Tim Dillon
Everything is a scripted reality show. I criticize ice. People get mad at me. They're like, well, how do you think people should be deported? Da, da, da, da. Number one, you could pass legislation which they haven't done. All of the stuff they've done on immigration is through executive orders, a lot of it. It will be reversed immediately by Democratic president. That's number one. Number two, if you pass legislation and then attach enforcement to that, you pass laws, you then have laws by which the country is governed that will prevent illegal immigration. If you do a reality show spectacle where you're grabbing people here and there, left and right, and it revs everybody up and you then have protests everywhere and you have violence and you have ICE responding to that with deadly force, you're, you don't have a long term solution. What you do is you're stirring the pot and creating like mini civil wars all over the country that people are watching on television. But you don't have like the enforcement of laws. And you're not going after employers that are employing illegal labor. You're not going after Steve Wynn, you're not going after the big hotel magnets that, you know, employ illegal labor. You're not going after big agricultural.
- [33:40]
Ryan Grim
Firms.
- [33:40]
Tim Dillon
That do the same thing. Now, agriculture, why is a lot of illegal labor using agriculture? Well, then the food should be cheap, right? Well, no, the food's not cheap. It's the most expensive it's ever been. Well, what about the houses? They're the most expensive they've ever been.
- [33:58]
Ryan Grim
Huh?
- [34:00]
Tim Dillon
What about staying at hotels and eating out at restaurants? I mean, all of this has come down surely because of all the illegal labor. No, that's more expensive than it's ever been.
- [34:11]
Ryan Saavedra
Right?
- [34:12]
Ryan Grim
Right. Yeah. I mean, I think that explicitly proves the point. He's talking about housing, how it's most expensive. Everything is very expensive. It doesn't seem like things are getting better. He's talked about how Alex Jones warned for years in the past about mass agents in the streets. He's like, that's what's literally happening. Right now. I mean, you're watching all of this all take place. And then in that same context, I do want to give a shout out to my good friend Dave smith. Let's put E4 up here on the screen again. Look, I think Dave was a very, very influential prominent person in the podcast discourse in a lead up to the 2024 election, subsequently, on foreign policy and more. And here's what he says. Quote, I'm an immigration restrictionist. I believe we have the right to remove any and all people who enter our country illegally. Also, ICE is out of control. A bunch of drunk on power going around intentionally escalating violent interactions, intimidating US Citizens. They create these tragic situations. And after this gigantic show of force, they won't deport a fraction of the illegals who entered under Biden. This is simply not worth it. And I do think that, you know, this. This sentiment is very common amongst a lot of people. I. It includes me. I think this sentiment is very, very common. Again, for a lot of people who are deeply concerned, upset about the chaos at the border under Biden, about, look, and do fundamentally have a very different view of immigration than others. And while it may be true that some 250,000 people have been deported, let's say, and look at it as a fraction of the tens of millions of people who entered the country illegally under Biden and or were present in the country. And then, though, you have to ask the question about not just the tactics, but now the two subsequent deaths in Minnesota and then this latest one, which is as egregious as it possibly gets. And to say, yeah, no, no, this, this is not the correct response, as Tim lays out very clearly, and he's correct, is that the biggest beneficiaries of illegal labor are big corporations, hotel chains, and all these other people. Fine, use the RRS. You can find all of them. 250,000. I can guarantee you, if you start finding and arresting people who employ illegal labor, you don't even need to verify it will be over tomorrow. You could end remittances. You could end all remittances. Put 100% tax on remittances, let's say, sent by Wells Fargo. It would collapse the economy of Mexico overnight as well as a lot of these other Latin American countries. And a lot of people would just leave. All of that makes it so that you don't need a single ICE agent in the street. If you did something like, nope, can't do that. Why? Because of big donors. So that is the egregious part of all of this, not only could it have been avoided, I think it's politically set back the cause of immigration restriction for decades, most likely as a result of this bullshit. But most importantly, what you're all watching, these canaries, Tim, Marjorie, Taylor Greene, Dave, all of these others who speak out on this, what you should notice is not just that they're willing to speak out, but that those are popular positions. Those are people who are starting to, you know, make ground. Independent voters. Others, people who potentially may have voted for Trump. That is fundamentally the demographic Ryan, that really helped Donald Trump dominate the culture and win the White House in 2024.
- [37:14]
Ryan Saavedra
Yeah, and, yeah, exactly. And I think that's why it's important to hear from people like Tim Dillon and Dave Smith on these questions. Because, because of who they are, they're not, their brains have not been soaking in this like partisan soup. And so they're, they, they care about issues like they like, which is a crazy way for like, people to think. Wait, you can actually. It's not about, it's not a team sport. You actually have an issue you care about and you vote on that issue. And one of the issues for these folks was immigration restriction. What they're saying is if you do it this way, you're not accomplishing your own agenda. Now what I think there is an opportunity for the Trump administration here to say, to declare some foreign victory because, okay, let's say there's only been 250,000 deportations. I would suspect we don't have the numbers yet. The number of self deportations because of the fear that is about a million ripping through immigrant communities. Yeah. Is a lot. If they then transition, say, okay, you know, we're going after violent criminals.
- [38:15]
Ryan Grim
And.
- [38:15]
Ryan Saavedra
We'Re not going to go through Home Depot parking lots and ask every brown person that we see for their papers. We're going to kind of passively investigate and look for violent criminals. And when we find them, we're going to deport them and we're going to make sure the border is secure. Within a period of time, they would be back to probably having a mandate again for that position. What they don't have a mandate for is this like, like whatever, whatever they're doing. This is like violent crackdown on the American public and killing, you know, two American citizens within three weeks and shooting three people within three weeks. And I think we're at seven deaths in ICE or cbp, DHS custody in January alone. And the, you know, the month isn't over yet. Like, that's, that's more than the public is willing to bear.
- [39:06]
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And look at a certain, especially in the wake of the shooting, like, yeah, they shouldn't bear it. Like, no, you can't. And that's where public opinion and watching these signifiers, like in again, like, for not just influencers and others, by the way, even Tim Pool, you know, who has been very supportive of the administration. Yeah. He was like, guys, I don't think.
- [39:26]
Ryan Saavedra
It'S a good shoot.
- [39:27]
Ryan Grim
He says, what did he say? He was just like, trump ain't winning this one or something like that. I was like, yeah, obviously he's right. You know, by the way, Tim also is somebody who's very pro gun. You remotely be somebody who's pro the Second Amendment. And then look, not again, not just the shooting, but the government, their narrative, the standards they're trying to be set. And then you put all that stuff together and if you're like, look, if this is what they're willing to do, then. No, no, no. Right. Then that's something that's going to be a real break point, I think, for the culture in all this. But, you know, we'll see. I could be wrong, but maybe we'll be right back to Trump domination. I can only speak for myself and to look at, you know, people like my friends Dave and just say, wow, you know, first of all, credit to Dave. It's not exactly. It's easy to put that out on Twitter and inevitably get piled on by some of the low IQ commentary. But it is, you know, courageous for him to be able to say something like that, especially considering the positions he took before 2024. And it's also, again, though, you know, I think the fact that his popularity in the interim, when he's been on our show and denounced Trump over Iran and now this. These are important, important, important things. Okay, let's get to China looking for.
- [40:37]
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- [43:21]
Ryan Grim
All right, last thing here that I just had to get it here in the show again. Enormously consequential. Huge shakeup at the top of the ccp. Let's put this up here on the screen from the Wall Street Journal. China's top general accused of giving nuclear secrets to the US Bribery allegations have leveled against General Zhang. I'm not going to try and say it, I apologize. I'm just going to call him General Zhang. Whose downfall carries implications for the country's military readiness. I mean, this is literally his senior, most senior, most general. So the equivalent of like, kind of like the Vice President or the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who is being accused by Xi Jinping of selling nuclear weapons secrets to the US of accepting bribes for official act for including the promotion of an officer to defense minister is shocking. Shocking because it is part of an ongoing kind of military purge at the very top level by the ccp. Let's look. There's a lot of various theories kind of behind all of this. Why don't we start first with the coup rumors? Let's put F4 up here on the screen. No one is taking seriously the idea that he actually leaked nuclear secrets. It was more that they're willing to accuse him, Ryan, of leaking military secrets. So here's. Here's what he says. So the best compilation of coup rumors circulating amongst the Chinese diaspora. Again, these are rumors not confirmed, but there's no leaks that come out of China. That's part of the difficulty of dealing with all this. He says Democracy activists post on social media revealing a conversation from inside the Great Firewall where they disclose that they had planned to move against Xi Jinping and capture him on the evening of January 18, Beijing time, when he was set to stay at a hotel in Beijing. Beijing. Now, for the past few years, quote, he has been homeless, changing locations every few days. Details of the Capture Xi operation, citing sources originally planned to strike on that evening. However, two hours before the operation, they were betrayed by an informant and Xi Jinping immediately evacuated and set up an ambush or a counter capture. And allegedly he's even claiming that there was some sort of gunfight. Now, this is, again, this is something from beyond the firewall, but it was elevated by some China, like some China watchers whom I respect. It would be absolutely extraordinary. Right? Exactly. Literally, like serious people who take.
- [45:36]
Ryan Saavedra
But they weren't saying it's true that. But. But it is a. It's a story that's being told.
- [45:41]
Ryan Grim
It is a story that's being told, you know, in the activist community and others. Our other friend, Arnaud Bertrand, who you contacted, Ryan, has shot that down. I do want to make sure that we put his up here on the screen if we can. Yep, here we go. Yeah, I've got it. Available one.
- [46:00]
Ryan Saavedra
He's saying the idea that he actually sold or. Or gave nuclear secrets to the US Is pretty preposterous because in order to do that, this general would have had to. Vice chairman, second most powerful person in China would have to, like, somehow do it. Like, and how you do that under the mass surveillance. You know, you have mass surveillance, but you also have very specific surveillance of everybody who's at the very upper echelons, not just for, you know, controlling them, but looking for foreign. Foreign adversarial efforts to, you know, penetrate and surveil those officials. Like, so they are. The idea that they'd be able to, like, get some burner phone and, like, get to the nuclear center and like, download the data and then somehow exfiltrated is like, like something out of, like a Jason Bourne, like, type of situation that isn't, like, remotely believable. The. The idea that there was that Chairman Xi doesn't have a place to stay in Beijing. Arno also argued was kind of preposterous.
- [47:14]
Ryan Grim
Right.
- [47:14]
Ryan Saavedra
And so dismissed the, the coup rumors. All you can do is say the fact that these are now, these investigations have been announced, bad news for the people being investigated. Very rarely do you get these investigations announced. And there's, oh, we cleared them. What's going on here is that this is some type of power struggle. The. For whatever reason she is moving against these figures. There's appears to be some corruption angle to it. She has made, like, rooting out corruption kind of a centerpiece of his. His. His attempt, you know, his, his effort here. And so 2012, you know, 2012 on, he's going after enormous amounts of corruption within the party and within, you know, the economy writ large. Whether. And, you know, the. These folks, you know, have power bases that go back many, many decades. The vice chairman goes back to the, you know, his father was like a hero in the, you know, the People's Liberation army, like the founding of it. That means they have their networks. And if those networks have been engaging in some sort of soft graft, either he found that out or he didn't think he was cracking down enough, or it's just a straight up power play as he's, you know, continuing to concentrate power and put loyalists underneath him. So that's our. No Bertrands.
- [48:43]
Ryan Grim
Right? I mean, look, both, both. Both perspectives very important. And I, I think his, his main point of we have no idea is potentially the most important. I think, though, what we do know is extraordinary enough to remove the top general is just. Is crazy. I mean, again, like it. You. I can't even think of an American parallel of just coming in and, and arresting the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Arnaud even noted that the language that they use in the arrest or in the charging statement was that he trampled on like the, he trampled on like directives from the chairman, which he was saying is just like, I mean, very, very extraordinary language. More than they've used in even other prior corruption investigations and departures. We have multiple members now of this military committee over the last few years who have now been purged and or are either in jail or been removed. By the way, my favorite Wall Street Journal euphemism is could not be reached for comment. When talking about have been purged, I'm like, yeah, that's one way of putting it. Certainly true. We have no idea, you know, where it could be. In prison, could be dead. Exactly what it all looks like. But let's all keep an eye on it. The world is still very unstable. Who knows? Yeah, this could have implications for Taiwan. Right? This could have implications internally who we have. No, whether it was a coup or not, I tend to lean against coup just because it doesn't even seem possible at this point.
- [50:10]
Ryan Saavedra
Right.
- [50:10]
Ryan Grim
How do you even pull that off?
- [50:12]
Ryan Saavedra
Like, that's not how the System XI.
- [50:14]
Ryan Grim
Is so overwhelmingly powerful. Like the time for a coup would have been years ago, wouldn't be now, when he's has a ironclad control over not just the country, but over the ccp. Obviously, though, I could be totally wrong. There could be competing power centers and there always have been within their power structure. But look, this is a nuclear armed potential, almost superpower here in Asia, undeniably the great power that even remotely rivals the United States. And so it's not just political turmoil what ends up happening as a result of this and what the potential implications behind it might be for their military, for their posture, for how and what they're thinking about. I tend not to think it is a accident. Accusing him of nuclear secrets, which could mean that it could lead to some change in their nuclear posture. Right. Or some sort of command and control change over that. So because they say that it's been compromised by the U.S. all of that, that very, very significant. So we need to pay attention to all of this. Just want to make sure that we mentioned it because it could have, you know, major, major implications. Ryan, thank you so much for, for today, for being here with me, man. Value you more than ever, especially in such an insane time. Value the show, Crystal, Emily, the ability for all of us to work together. And thank you to the audience for everybody. We're probably going to be remote tomorrow. Guys, I was just looking. I don't even think my roads or any of that are even gonna get plowed. We're not yet high on the priority list, so very likely another remote show. Also, we have a crew. We have to worry about their safety and all of that as well. So we'll see you all tomorrow.
- [51:44]
Ryan Saavedra
You know, hard for them to get into, but.
- [51:46]
Ryan Grim
Right.
- [51:46]
Ryan Saavedra
See you some. One. One way or another. We'll see you.
- [52:02]
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- [52:38]
Ryan Saavedra
Janice Torres here, and I'm Austin Hankwitz. We host the podcast Mind the Small Business Success Stories, produced by Ruby Studio in partnership with Intuit QuickBooks.
- [52:47]
CVS Advertiser
We're back for season four to talk to some incredible small business owners.
- [52:51]
Ryan Saavedra
The big thing about working at tech is that it's ever evolving, ever changing. Everyone's a rookie.
- [52:55]
Ryan Grim
That's how fast the industry is changing. So what I'm really excited about is.
- [52:58]
Ryan Saavedra
To be part of that change.
- [53:00]
Ryan Grim
So listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple.
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Ryan Saavedra
Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [53:07]
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