1/7/26: Trump Seizes Russian Vessel, China Salivates Over Taiwan, Trump Seizes Millions Of Venezuela Oil Barrels

Summary

Podcast Summary: Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: January 7, 2026: Trump Seizes Russian Vessel, China Salivates Over Taiwan, Trump Seizes Millions Of Venezuela Oil Barrels
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti
Producer: iHeartPodcasts
Air Date: January 7, 2026
Summary Prepared by Podcast Summarizer

---

Overview of Episode Theme

This episode of Breaking Points dives into a whirlwind of fast-moving, high-stakes geopolitical events. The United States has just seized a Russian-flagged oil vessel in the North Atlantic, escalating tensions with Moscow amid ongoing turmoil in Venezuela after the extraordinary rendition (capture) of Nicolás Maduro. The implications of US intervention are explored, particularly its impact on China's ambitions toward Taiwan and the broader question of American power projection, overextension, and imperial strategy. The episode also scrutinizes US sanctions policy, the Monroe Doctrine's legacy, and the practical and symbolic outcomes of these bold actions on global affairs.

---

Key Discussion Points and Insights

---

1. Breaking News: US Seizes Russian Vessel

• Segment: [02:27]–[15:00]
• The US Coast Guard and military board and seize an oil tanker, formerly known as Bella One (now Marinara), in the North Atlantic. This vessel had shifted registration to a Russian flag just days after the US captured Maduro.
• Russia reacts by dispatching naval assets and a submarine to intercept and escort the ship—a potential "major geopolitical tension" moment.
• Multiple Venezuelan oil tankers have recently switched to Russian registration to evade US sanctions, and at least one ("Bella One"/"Marinara") has now vanished from tracking, escalating the stakes.
• Saagar connects the dots: these maneuvers are about enforcing US unilateral sanctions and signaling power just as Russia, India, and China circumvent Western control of global oil flows.

Quote:
“This is now, you know, a geopolitical, geostrategic thing beyond just the Western Hemisphere. … This is the wet dream of Lindsey Graham and of much of the pro-Ukraine caucus. Russian oil has been the lifeblood of the Russian economy … and a US interdiction and now a US boarding, which is officially now happened… This is truly now an extraordinary event.”
— Krystal Ball [11:40]

---

2. America's Sanctions Addiction and Global Pushback

• Segment: [12:00]–[15:00]
• The US is widely seen as weaponizing its control over the dollar and SWIFT system to enforce global compliance via sanctions. The hosts argue this creates a fractured global economic system, incentivizing others to evade, create "ghost operations" and alternative banks.
• Saagar and Krystal joke that America is effectively enforcing “felony oil possession.”
• Krystal raises the possibility that the US may be motivated by suspicion that these intercepted ships contain more than just oil—possibly military or strategic materials for Venezuela.

Quote:
“We are saying to the world, you know, how dare you attempt to do commerce in energy. And what this is going to do is put a spotlight for the world on our sanctions policy and our unilateral sanctions policy.”
— Saagar Enjeti [12:15]

---

3. Overextension and Imperial Hubris

• Segment: [19:00]–[29:59]
• The US continues to overextend itself—managing Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and now Venezuela all at once.
• The Monroe Doctrine’s original intent—limiting European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere—has been contorted into a justification for US intervention and regime change, according to Krystal.
• The hosts critique overstretched US capabilities, recalling recent US shortages in munitions, missile stockpiles, and supply chains, noting that an efficient empire should focus on “the actual most important thing.”

Quote:
“This is imperial. … We are an empire, but the point of being an efficiently managed empire is to say, look at the balance sheet and say, what’s the actual most important thing?... Instead, this is actually keeping the complete overextension…”
— Saagar Enjeti [22:16]

---

4. China’s Response and Spheres of Influence

• Segment: [32:39]–[45:30]
• China, long Venezuela’s top oil customer, is unamused by US attempts to forcibly sever its ties.
• Video evidence from Venezuela’s new US-aligned regime shows clear attempts to keep channels open with Chinese and Russian diplomats—this, per Krystal, is a telegraphed signal Beijing will not be easily ousted.
• The hosts highlight that Chinese analysts see US actions as affirmation of spheres of influence—a doctrine China is happy to appropriate for its own claims over Taiwan.
• American hypocrisy over ‘norms’ and ‘international law’ gives other great powers rhetorical and practical cover.
• There’s division among Chinese strategists: some ponder copying the US playbook on Taiwan, while others dismiss the comparison, insisting that for China, Taiwan "is ours." The debate underscores reality that China studies US moves closely for precedent.

Quote:
“If you are headed toward a world where great powers can use force ruthlessly in their own neighborhoods, that precedent is not a bad one from China’s perspective. It fits exactly with the way Beijing would like to behave…”
— Krystal Ball (citing Hal Brands) [41:38]

Quote:
“I’ve never seen it as more likely that [China] will just be able to do whatever… if the US appears erratic and unstable, then they can't bank on the status quo.”
— Saagar Enjeti [55:41]

---

5. Venezuela Oil Seizure and Domestic Reactions

• Segment: [59:24]–[66:02]
• Trump’s administration announces the seizure of 30–50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil—selling it at market price and (purportedly) allocating profits for both the US and Venezuela's people.
• The hosts mock the notion of “imperial booty” and the revival of “the British Empire, the American Venezuelan Oil Company.”
• Despite the loud rhetoric, Saagar points out that the deal may paradoxically be helpful for Venezuela, as it unclogs dock storage and lets oil finally reach market. The net effect is similar to sanctions waivers earlier revoked due to US politics.
• Krystal and Saagar question whether the move will be popular inside Venezuela, wrestling with the symbolic insult to sovereignty versus the possibility of restoring industry and improving living standards.
• The discussion turns to internal Venezuelan politics, specifically the legitimacy of opposition leader María Machado, the farce of Western-imposed “legitimate” leaders, and recent Nobel Peace Prize snubs.

Quote:
“We now have not only imperial booty, but we also have an imperial fund. So we are watching the recreation of the British Empire … be created in real time.”
— Krystal Ball [59:40]

---

6. Ripple Effects: Cuba, Mexico, and American Myopia

• Segment: [48:39]–[53:51]
• US efforts to strangle Cuba by cutting off Venezuelan oil push Havana to alternative suppliers, namely Mexico.
• Marco Rubio’s ideological fixation with Cuba is mocked, with Krystal arguing that US policy should prioritize real bilateral interests (trade, security, drugs) over punishing Havana for symbolic reasons.
• Mexico, under President Sheinbaum, continues to supply oil to Cuba, defying US pressure and risking a bilateral dispute.

Quote:
“Why would you base your relations with a nation which controls 40% of your bilateral trade on an island of Cuba which is off the coast of Florida? For purely ideological purposes.”
— Krystal Ball [52:05]

---

7. Meta-Reflection: The Peril of Great Power Politics

• The hosts reflect on the explicit return to ‘sphere of influence’ logic in US foreign policy, warning that such arbitrariness and overextension make global instability more likely and empower rival empires to accelerate their own ambitions.
• Krystal recalls the Soviet Union’s pivot to hard power after watching the US dominate its “outer empire,” leading ultimately to the Afghan debacle.
• The episode ends with a satirical nod to the personal pettiness and theater of US interventionism, as illustrated by Trump’s supposed slight from Maria Machado's Nobel Peace Prize and the viral “Maduro dancing” meme.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Sanctions & Oil Seizure:
  "We are saying to the world, you know, how dare you attempt to do commerce in energy. …This is truly now an extraordinary event."
  — Krystal Ball [12:00–11:40]

• On Empire & Competence:
  “We are an empire, but the point of being an efficiently managed empire is to say, look at the balance sheet and say, what's the actual most important thing?”
  — Saagar Enjeti [22:16]

• On China & Hypocrisy:
  "There’s nothing that they [the Chinese and Russians] love more than pointing this out… norms like Iraq, right?”
  — Krystal Ball [40:14]

• On Domestic Political Absurdity:
  “Now we just have a bunch of porn models who are now US O-1 visa recipients. …instead it’s literally going to onlyfans whores.”
  — Krystal Ball [05:46]

• Satirical Moment:
  “I just love the idea of... are you upset that you didn’t get [the Nobel Peace Prize]?…The true man of peace is president.”
  — Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti [68:48–69:14]

---

Key Timestamps for Critical Sections

• Seizure of Russian Oil Tanker: [02:27]–[15:00]
• US Sanctions Regime & Global Pushback: [12:00]–[15:00]
• Historical Context: Monroe Doctrine & Spheres of Influence: [19:00]–[22:00]
• Discussion on US Overreach & Military Capability Limits: [22:00]–[29:59]
• China’s Calculations Post-Maduro: [32:39]–[45:30]
• Cuba, Mexico & Friction with US Policy: [48:39]–[53:51]
• Venezuela Oil Seizure & Domestic Implications: [59:24]–[66:02]

---

Concluding Tone & Analysis

This episode showcases Breaking Points’ trademark fusion of blunt realism, skepticism toward official narratives, historical depth, and acerbic humor. Krystal and Saagar are relentless in scrutinizing the contradictions and hubris of American foreign policy—especially the shift toward overt, transactional projection of power, indifference to international norms, and obliviousness to blowback. Their analysis highlights how moves meant to assert US dominance often inadvertently fortify the rationale and playbooks of rival powers, and the discussion is underscored by satire and skepticism regarding the media’s portrayal of US largesse or strategic genius.

---

End of Summary

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Guaranteed Human hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. Flu season is here and the in store pharmacy has you covered with a free flu shot with most insurance plans. And as a thank you, get up to $20 off your grocery purchase. Plus it's cough and cold season. Stock up on all the season's essentials and get ready for relief with discounts on items like Mucinex, Children's Multi Symptom Cold Medicine, Zara B's Children's Cough Syrup and Emergen C. Offer ends January 27th. Restrictions apply and offers may vary by location. Visit Albertsons or Safeway.com for more details.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Did you know that parents rank teaching financial literacy as the toughest life skill?

[Krystal Ball]

That's where Greenlight comes in, the debit card and money app made for families.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

With Greenlight, you can send money to kids quickly, set up chores automate allowance, and track spending with real time notifications. Kick kids learn how to earn, save and spend responsibly while parents have peace of mind knowing smart money habits are.

[Krystal Ball]

Being built with guardrails in place.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Try Greenlight Risk free [e-mail] TryGreenlight that's greenlight.com TryGreenlight hi, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wali.

[Hari Kondabolu]

And I'm Hari Kundabolu.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

It's a new year and on the podcast Health Stuff, we're resetting the way we talk about our health, which means.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Being honest about what we know, what we don't know, and how messy it can all be. I like to sleep in late and sleep early. Is there a chronotype for that or am I just depressed? Health Stuff is about learning, laughing and feeling a little less alone.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Krystal Ball]

Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Krystal Ball]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see [e-mail] Good morning everybody. Happy Wednesday.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Wednesday, yeah. Wednesday.

[Krystal Ball]

Wednesday Pro show. Good to see you Ryan, thank you very much for having me. I really appreciate all the flexibility with the schedule. As you know, Ryan, children are constantly sick. Who knew?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Who knew?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it turns out that they're constantly.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Sick and they get you sick too. Look forward to that.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes. Apparently we have a stomach plague sweeping through our household as we speak. So it's just. It's just grandeur in the injured household. That's right. Don't worry. I've officially have not been yet. Yet afflicted with the plague. But thank you very much for having me, Ryan. We've got a great show for everybody today. Literally breaking news, reforming everything at the top, which we're going to lead with the United States currently boarding a US Or a Russian flagged oil vessel in the North Atlantic. This is a very interesting situation. Was previously unflagged sanctioned US Vessel which officially reflagged. The Russian navy actually sent a submarine which has on its way to trying to intercept and to escort it to Russia. There are multiple other Russian flagged vessels now that have been reflagged. This is potentially sparting some major geopolitical tension with Russia over this new oil gambit in Venezuela. We're also gonna talk about China. There's been a lot of talk in China, particularly after the US Decapitation of Madur. I can't say the Maduro regime, but at least going in the extraordinary rendition. There's been a lot of geopolitical rethinking inside of China. I think that that obviously is potentially the most influential conflict on all of our lives. Ten times more important than Ukraine, than Venezuela, even than Israel and Iran to what will happen geopolitically, the most tense region in the globe. But then of course, we're gonna have to return to Venezuela because Ryan, we're getting an announcement from the President. Some 30 to 50 million barrel oil by the current regime will be turned over to the United States.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We're all rich. Congratulations.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, we're not yet sure about that because it's actually going to be sold at a market price. I have a lot to say about it. It's actually kind of interesting from a general oil perspective, but it actually does show you what the designs of all of this are really about. And Ryan's actually going to give us an update about Venezuela as well. Just kind of what's going on in the ground. Some more dynamics that you and your team have been able to to bring us Greenland. We're gonna talk about Greenland. Stephen Miller saying that the United States is gonna take Greenland. Some leaked reporting behind the Scenes that Rubio said, look, we're not gonna invade Greenland, but we do wanna buy Greenland. And that's part of the reason that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We'Re saying maybe we'll trade that oil tanker for it.

[Krystal Ball]

I wouldn't mind. That'd be a good deal.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

What do you think? Yeah. We're already there, right? Yeah. Okay, we can take Greenland. And I will be reading for you from Seward's report on Greenland from 1868. One of my favorite documents.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Sewer folly.

[Krystal Ball]

Actually, his real folly was not getting real. And I could talk a little bit about. I could talk a little bit about the stupidity of the US Virgin Islands Greenland deal that we made back in the 1800s. And we're gonna talk about visas. So I have said here before, I do often feel personally attacked by the Trump administration. From marijuana to gambling. Like, there's so much stuff. But this one might actually take the cake. The US 01 extraordinary talent visa is now overwhelmingly going to content creators, and particularly fans, models.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So who also vape weed.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Who often are. Yeah. I mean, there's a strong. As you way. Well know, as a libertine yourself, the connection between degenerate pornography and degenerate marijuana is one and the same. And in fact, that is why I'm at war with all. So, yeah, we have a bunch of.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Only fit only fans.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. So now we just have a bunch of porn. Porn models who are now US 01 visa recipients. So that's great. Remember, this is the extraordinary talent visa for those of you are not familiar. Like, this is the type of visa that's supposed to go to, like, one of those coders who's like, I created a company with 50 million or 50 employees and worth all of us, and instead it's literally going to onlyfans whores.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So, yeah, the story I broke back in, like, 2007 was Anthony Weiner. Yeah.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Created.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He was an old one guy to carve out more model visas.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Did he really?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Which I think this is what they're pushing that through. This is Anthony Wein's legacy.

[Krystal Ball]

So it turns out there were signs there when Anthony made her work there.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Still, one of it was for New York.

[Krystal Ball]

He said, one of the best stories in Washington history. I will truly never forget it. And then, Ryan, a couple of your friends are gonna stop by, because I just dropped in. I don't know as much about it. Why don't you tell the audience?

[Saagar Enjeti]

This will be a fun.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Emily listened to a season of Blowback to prepare for this I feel so bad episode. I Think she liked it?

[Krystal Ball]

She's scared to switch with me.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think she really liked it. So we're going to have Brennan James and Noah Colwyn of Blowback because their latest season is on Angola. But in that season, there turns out to be. They drew the same connection to Epstein and Ira and Contra as we did. Angola is actually the kind of unspoken. An unspoken critical leg of Iran Contra that got a little bit of coverage at the time, but never made it kind of into the. Into the headline scandal news. So we're gonna talk about what another look at that history tells us about both Cuba, because I think there's actually a connection to what's going on now. And also what was Jeffrey Epperstein doing? Where did he make his money? How did he get his start?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, this is why we need Ryan here because I confess, it's only a few paragraphs in a couple Cold War books about Angola.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, and you can stand in for the viewer here.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay, good. I'll do my best.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Also, they don't teach much angol.

[Krystal Ball]

Thank you to everybody who has been signing up supporting our show, breakingpoints.com I mean, in insane times like this, I couldn't be more thankful for the entire team and especially Ryan and Emily, you know, just not only our ability to just be able to have five days of shows, especially in crazy times like this, but everybody's, you know, various different knowledge and all of that, and that's enabled by all of our premium subscribers. So breakingpoints.com if you're able to help us out. If you are watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. And if you're listening to this as a podcast or please share an episode with a friend. It really helps other people find the show. But let's turn now to the very fast moving situation here between the United States and Russia blowing up over Venezuela, of all things. Let's go and put this up here on the screen. This is a video that all of you are watching. Keep in mind, all of this video is coming from rt. That's because it's Russian propaganda and it's a Russian vessel. Okay? So not that we're only choosing to bring it and that may actually cause us content problems with YouTube, but we will see. You know, it is the news after all, Ryan. So what you guys can see in front of you is video that has been released by RT. This is from the tanker previously known as Bella 1. This was an unflagged oil vessel which was sanctioned by the United States in connection with Iranian Oil. The United States now have a Coast Guard and US Military vessel in the North Atlantic which has been chasing the Bela One, which has now been reflagged as a Russian vessel. Russia has dispatched a submarine and other Russian navy naval assets to actually intercept the previously known Bella One and escort it into Russian territorial waters. The United States has been in a fast and aggressive pursuit of this ever since it actually broke the Sanction blockade, wanting to seize much of the oil on board. So what has obviously escalated this now, massively. It is now officially a Russian flagged oil vessel which comes with all kinds of superpower nuclear armed confrontations. Let's go with the next element that we can go and put here up on the screen. This was the news that as of this week, immediately after the decapitation rendition of Maduro, that the Bella One adopted the Russian flag along with another tanker operating in Venezuela, now known as the Hyperion, which made a similar change. At least three additional tankers that operated in Venezuelan waters have now switched to Russian flags. According to the Russian vessel registry extending this pattern. Earlier this week, one of those three actually disappeared. That's the Bella One now. Currently, despite the US Blockade, all five are now subject to US Sanctions for previously shipping Iranian or Russian oil, altering their flags and declaring home ports in the Russian cities of Sochi or Taganrog. I apologize if I say that incorrectly. The reason why I think this is the most important, Ryan, is that this is now, you know, a geopolitical, geostrategic thing beyond just the Western Hemisphere. It's being said under that guise. But actually this is the wet dream of Lindsey Graham and of much of the pro Ukraine caucus. Russian oil has been the lifeblood of the Russian economy, not only to India and to China, but its ability, because of its own Navy, Russian submarines and others, has prevented the United States and even the European powers from really effectively actually stopping the flow of Russian oil. And a US Interdiction and now a US Boarding, which is officially now happened. We have image actually of that M3 while you talk, Ryan, that people can see. These are the first images released from RT which show US Military, US Coast Guard assets aborting the. What is it now called the marinara, previously known as the Bella One, which has now been seized officially by the United states, according to U.S. reports, been boarded by the United States Coast Guard personnel as of literally 5 minutes ago when we started recording all of this. So this is a crude oil tanker, Russian flagged, boarded by the US Taken. You could all see that in those images. So this is truly now an extraordinary event.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And people often say that if you want the real news, you go to some place like the Onion. The Onion had a headline the other day that it said, maduro indicted in New York for felony oil possession. And it's like, aha, that's funny because, like, that's really what he is under indictment for. But there's no such thing as felony oil possession. That wouldn't be a thing that the United States would do. No, literally. We are currently trying to board these ships for what is a version of felony oil possession. We are saying to the world, you know, how dare you attempt to do commerce in energy. And what this is going to do is put a spotlight for the world on our sanctions policy and our unilateral sanctions policy. There is a sanctions regime that exists in the world that the world accepts, and that is through the United Nations. You go to the un, you go to the Security Council, you say, this country's doing a genocide or this country's doing this. And we believe these companies and these people should be sanctioned and the General assembly can actually take action on that. And then as a globe, the countries then police that. The U.S. has said, good idea, we're just going to do it on our own because we control the dollar and we control swift. And money has to run through here, so do whatever you want. But if you want it to happen in dollars or in swift, then you're going to have to follow our rules. So then a bunch of these ships, they're like, okay, well, we're not following any of your rules at all.

[Krystal Ball]

That's what happened after the Russian world.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And they'll create basically entire ghost operations and use other banking systems, which is.

[Krystal Ball]

What'S been happening for the last four years.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And we're like, we're still going to enforce it. And at some point, the world has to be like, wait a minute. This is utterly insane. You're chasing an oil tanker. So this oil tanker came to a Venezuela and it couldn't get through. It tried, apparently a bunch of different times to get through the little armada that we had out there. And eventually it gave up and fled and then flipped to a Russian flag. It was probably already a Russian ship. But what they do is they.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, they unflag it for these purposes.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We do that. All these ships are flagged in like, you know, the Mariana Islands or whatever.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, just to explain even more, kind of, as I understand it, there is actually current speculation not only around the oil, but potentially there might have been something else. On that ship, you know, going back to the Cuban Missile Crisis or something that potentially was dispatched to try and help Nicolas Maduro and the Venezuelan regime, then necessarily the Russians didn't want us to get our hands on. So we don't know exactly. Okay.

[Saagar Enjeti]

There is some speculation.

[Krystal Ball]

Don't know yet that for sure. But I mean, it is crazy. That's a Russian flagship.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That speculation comes from rational Americans being like, there's no way our government would be so crazy as to just be chasing an oil tanker like this.

[Krystal Ball]

I think, I think what it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

There must be something else on it. It's like if there isn't something else, you have to adjust your priors and be like, oh, actually, we are that crazy.

[Krystal Ball]

No, see, I think. I think we are that quote, crazy. Because what has happened has been this. And I'll explain this, which is, you know, you talk there about the UN and Internet, and this is like my main divide, I think, with the global.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You don't like that either?

[Krystal Ball]

No, it's not that I don't like it. It's just fake, right? It's like, it's like if the US Dollar and if the US Dollar is the prime currency of the world, then, yes, US Sanctions are actually the only thing that matters. And I remember saying this during Ukraine. I'm like, yeah, you can throw your, you know, blow your financial wad, if you will, all over Ukraine. I wouldn't do it because it's not important to the US at all. I would maybe save all of this for the only conflict in the world that in my opinion, really matters at all, which is China and is Taiwan, because that's the one that's going to affect my life the most. At the end of the day, who controls Donbas or frankly, even all of Ukraine does not affect any person in this world, in America's life at all. But the chips in our computers and the flow through, you know the type through the sea in Taiwan, the South China Sea, that affects everybody, including take on your battery. That's what I've said it. I've said. I've said, literally, if there's a war with Taiwan, all of us are turning our laptops in. The government's going to strip out the chips. All of us are going to be on eBay buying 2006. You think I'm kidding? I'm not. Your Xbox, all that stuff, it's all getting turned in. It's going to. It's all literally going to be sanctioned and taken by the US Government because they need it to operate, especially if it's a prolonged conflict. And that's part of the reason we should do everything in our power to avoid that and to keep some of.

[LifeLock Advertiser]

Our power the New Year means new health goals not just for your body, but for your finances too. But did you know financial health is directly related to identity protection? You need Lifelock because your personal info is in endless places that are outside of your control. It only takes one mistake, and not even your mistake to expose you to identity theft and lost funds. LifeLock monitors hundreds of millions of data points per second and alerts you to threats you could miss on your own. If your identity is stolen, LifeLock's US based restoration specialist will fix it, backed by the million dollar protection package. In fact, restoration is guaranteed or your subscription money back. Don't face drained accounts, fraudulent loans or other financial losses from identity theft alone. Resolve to make identity health and we part of your New year's goals with LifeLock. Visit LifeLock.com iHeart and save up to 40% your first year. That's 40% [e-mail] iHeart terms apply.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this new year. Don't forget about the little ones in the family. Now through January 27th. Shop in store and online and save $10 when you buy two or more of your favorite baby care items. Shop for items like Happy Baby Formula, Pampers Pure Diapers, Pampers Baby Wipes, Pampers Swaddler's Diapers, Pampers Cruisers Diapers and Similac Powder formulas. And save $10 when you buy two participating products. Offer ends January 27th. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Hi, I'm Dr. Priyankiwale.

[Hari Kondabolu]

And I'm Harikundabolu.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

It's a new year and on the podcast Health Stuff, we're resetting the way we talk about our health, which means.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Being honest about what we know, what we don't know, and how messy it can all be. I like to sleep in late and sleep early. Is there a chronotype for that or am I just depressed?

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We talk to experts who share real experiences and insight.

[Krystal Ball]

You just really need to find where it is that you can have an impact in your own life and just start doing that.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We break down the topics you want.

[Krystal Ball]

To know more about sleep, stress, mental.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Health and how the world around us affects our overall health.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We talk about all the ways to keep your body and mind inside and out healthy. We human beings, all we want is Connection. We just want to connect with each other.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Health stuff is about learning, laughing and feeling a little less alone.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Krystal Ball]

This is exactly kind of people drunk with power over this idea of the Monroe Doctrine. Now again, the Monroe Doctrine, I think was good policy. The Monroe doctri was invented at a time of European intervention into the Western Hemisphere. And the declaration from the Monroe Doctrine, which was primarily authored and ideated by John Quincy Adams, was that as a power we recognize spheres of influence. The Western hemisphere is a sphere of influence for the United States. And we will not allow European great powers to come in here since transmuted into we can do whatever we want. We can depose any, you know, president or any of that. That's how we operate, often actually to bad effect in Latin America.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Latin American countries initially read it to say, oh good, you're basically, you're saying that we should have sovereignty and independence just like you, the United States.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, this has always been the primary tension with US policy in Latin America, especially during the Spanish American times. Right, Because Spain was literally an empire which colonized them. And many of them, Bolivar, for example, was a great admirer of George Washington and of the American statue of Revolution. There's a statue of us of him here. I know the Bolivarian. If you've ever been to Colombia or any, they take that very seriously. And you know, it's very, it's, it's inspiring in some ways the idea of self determination. But the, you know, the, the, the conflict has always also been at the heart of America for, let's say quite literally, you know, turning republics into banana republics or having explicit and coups and inspiring the breakaway of Panama so we could do the Panama Canal. And I understand that that's like we have to be a real nation, we have to be an idealistic nation. But in this particular case, you really just have to ask why is enforcing this on Russia now an important, so important to this Venezuela dream where we have now overthrown Maduro or we have captured Maduro, we have captured the vast majority of his people in power. We are trying to strike this kind of oil deal and we're going to get to some of the details of that in a minute. Where they have to kick out China and Russia and all that, which I'm skeptical that that will actually happen without actual full blown regime change. The question is, is like, when you do things that are truly extraordinary, should it not be for things that are of your absolute vital national security interest. And in this case, you overthrow Maduro. You are now sparking, I wouldn't say conflict with Russia, but tension with Russia on the high seas in the North Atlantic over a crude oil vessel. When the United States is a net exporter of oil and the price of oil remains at an all. This is not 1972. Right. This is not the OPEC gas prices. There are not gas lines. Oil is cheap. In fact, one of the problems the administration has is that because the price of oil is so low, they've created. Well, which is fine. I'm fine with that. I think every. Cool.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Your buddies in Texas are not fine with it.

[Krystal Ball]

I know that. Yeah, Everybody down in Midland is like, yo, we need the price of oil to go up, okay? They're like, I need to buy some more Ford F150s. And you know the car dealers of Midland. I weep tears for that. Jokes aside, the point around this is if you were to say we're gonna have imperial retrenchment, let's say from a security guarantee with Russia, literally happened yesterday, or, sorry, with Ukraine, happened yesterday. We didn't have as much time to put it in the show that happened yesterday. The United States was now gonna provide a security guarantee for Ukrainian sovereignty. At the same time, the United States is providing a security umbrella over one of the most rogue states in Middle east history, Israel. All right? Which is currently happening with Gaza, the West Bank. We're diplomatically providing cover there. We're also trying to project power in Japan, Taiwan, and to prevent a Chinese takeover of that. This is imperial. And then we're like, oh, and we're going to start running Venezuela. We're not capable of that. This has always been kind of the theory behind retrenchment. And yes, of course, we are an empire, but the point of being an efficiently managed empire is to say, look at the balance sheet and say, what's the actual most important thing? Where do we focus all of our resources? And instead, this is actually keeping the complete overextension of NATO, of Ukraine, of the Middle east policy, and the obsessions of the neocons also with these ideological, quasi Monroe Doctrine policy here of Venezuela. And you put it all together and you actually just see the potential for conflagration now everywhere, like with Russia. And that is the problem, is, do you trust that these are competent people in power now currently, after the evidence of the last year that are capable of managing all of those conflicts and the ability to make sure that the second order effect, which will usually pops up somewhere on the other side of the globe, especially after something like this that could, let's say it, nukes a Ukraine peace deal. This is why you don't get involved in the first place. And if you do, you need great plans. There needs to be well considered. And that's, that's. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And what I don't understand genuinely is why the US seems to be antagonizing and instigating a global conflict when we have not reshored our supply chains effectively such that our entire defense, or, sorry, war industrial base. We don't say defense anymore. Our war industrial base, the supply chain leads through Taiwan and China. So you would think if you were a rational warmonger, you would at least wait 10 years until you've built your semiconductor plants and you've gotten your rare earths lined up and you feel like if hostilities broke out that you could produce the types of things that you need to not only continue the war effort, but continue having the economy that we have. Because the economy that we have, like when, when, when chips were like stalled for like six weeks, people couldn't buy dishwashers, people couldn't buy laundry machines.

[Krystal Ball]

Like this happened in 2020.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The auto industry shut. Yes, it collapsed 2020. Auto industry just paused.

[Krystal Ball]

People were literally buying Fords, Ryan, with no computers inside of them, with the promise that we'll install it later. And that's the reality.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's why used vehicles back in 2020 like doubled in price. That's just from a little tiny pause during the pandemic. If China's just like, okay, you're, you're doing war all over the place. Okay, fine.

[Krystal Ball]

Before we go to China, and I.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Know this is flows into the next.

[Krystal Ball]

One, we need to get this out soon. So I'll just keep like wrapped here. But like that is the per. The perfect point is let's say you're somebody like. I believe in spheres of influence. You know, I'm somebody who largely. I think international law is fake. I think all, everything is. But that doesn't mean that you should just do whatever you want.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Want.

[Krystal Ball]

You can do whatever you want. There's never been a true limiting principle on power. What has always been a check against power, There's Ottoman power. Right. And so not only that, if you look, let's say at the most competent realpolitik statesman, people like Bismarck, you know, people like Eisenhower, the genuine managers of empire, they always recognize checks, balances, vital security interests, the ability to, to be very cogent and even in terms of potential overextension, to never do so and to maintain some sort of balance, what we're acting like right now is completely drunk with power that we don't have. So that's the final word I want to make here, is that during the 12 day war, the United States spent 25% of its THAAD. 25% of THAAD interceptor. Entire stockpile was depleted in 12 days. In a war that we were not even involved in. Whenever it comes to shells, no offense.

[Saagar Enjeti]

To Iran, third, fourth rate power, sixth rate power.

[Krystal Ball]

Whenever it comes to something that we're dealing with right here, whenever, you know, we think about artillery, munitions, we don't even have enough to supply all of Ukraine, okay, we had to overthrow Imran Caucus. We literally stand more of them and blackmail South Korea to send all of their shells. We have nothing for an actually prolonged conflict. That is. Why do you think I've been freaking out about Ukraine and Israel? Because we are blowing hundreds of millions of dollars. Let me tell you an inside story about Midnight Hammer and I have this confirmed. Is that the actual op plan for centcom was a 35 day bombing campaign against Iran.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's the Israeli attack on the.

[Hari Kondabolu]

No, no, no.

[Krystal Ball]

This was Midnight Hammer. Was our attack on the Iranian nuclear.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Facilities, the one that came after Israel.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. The op plan for the United States. 35 days of bombing. You know why we couldn't do that? We don't have any munitions, we don't have stores. Bare 35 day bombing campaign. There is also a story I was told about Midnight Hammer where just midnight hammer1b2 bombing raid required so much logistical headache and stretched them to the brim that it almost broke in terms of having to resupply, having forward deployment like all of that. Not to mention what just happened here with Maduro. So can we do extraordinary one time limited operations? Of course. This is America. We are the best at that. We're like a high precision tooled F1 race car sprinter. That is not one. That is not what wins wars. What wins wars is, is. I mean the Nazis are a good example. They had plenty. I mean they literally the first jet aircraft in World War II. Doesn't matter because we can just roll B17s as many as we possibly want. You want the Ford factory that just cranks out, you know, fine enough stuff compared to this high precision stuff which has been nuked currently the defense industrial complex because that's what's really super expensive. F35 is another good example. So put all of that in the context of what we're dealing with.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Kurilla's air campaign against the Houthis is also a good example. That was supposed to last like three or four months, and it ended up lasting just a couple weeks because they're like, oh, this isn't doing the damage we thought it was and we're running.

[Krystal Ball]

Out of stuff and we ran out of stockpiles. And that was against the Houthis. A non state actor. Now we're screwing.

[Saagar Enjeti]

They're knocking our ships off Russia. I mean, knocking our planes off the plane.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right. We lost two separate aircraft in incidents.

[Saagar Enjeti]

$75 million each.

[Krystal Ball]

People look at Midnight Hammer and the Maduro thing and they're like, oh, America, America's back. No, it's the opposite, guys. That's all we can do now. That's part of the problem. So long winded. I apologize. But I mean, I do think this is a very, very, very significant event. And who knows how the Kremlin will react. I'm not predicting war or any of that. But, you know, at the very same time, they're trying to do some deal in Ukraine. I mean, why would you make a deal whenever? This is the BS that you would have to deal with. So we'll see. All right, let's get on to China.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. Flu season is here and the in store pharmacy has you covered with flu shot with most insurance plans. And as a thank you, get up to $20 off your grocery purchase. Plus it's cough and cold season. Stock up on all the season's essentials and get ready for relief with discounts on items like Mucinex, Children's multisymptom cold medicine, Zara B's children's cough syrup and emergency offer ends January 27th. Restrictions apply and offers may vary by location. Visit Albertsons or Safeway.com for more details.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Hi, I'm Dr. Priyanka Walley.

[Hari Kondabolu]

And I'm Hari Kondabolu.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

It's a new year, and on the podcast Health Stuff, we're resetting the way.

[Hari Kondabolu]

We talk about our being honest, about what we know, what we don't know, and how messy it can all be. I like to sleep in late and sleep early. Is there a chronotype for that or am I just depressed?

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We talk to experts who share real experiences and insight.

[Krystal Ball]

You just really need to find where it is that you can have an impact in your own life and just start doing that.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We break down the topics. You want to know more about sleep.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Sleep, stress, mental health, and how the world around us affects our overall health.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We talk about all the ways to keep your body and mind inside and out healthy. We human beings, all we want is connection. We just want to connect with each other.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Health stuff is about learning, laughing and feeling a little less alone.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Ed Zitron]

I'm Ed Zitron of the Better Offline Podcast and I want you to join me at this year's Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, Nevada. Starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026, we're doing 10 radio style podcast episodes about the world's biggest tech conference and we're going to dig into the latest and weirdest gadgets, gizmos and horrible AI gear that the tech industry is desperate to sell you all while covering the biggest stories in Silicon Valley as the AI bubble threatens to burst. I'll be joined by David Roth, Chloe Radcliffe, Adam Conover, Cory Doctorow, Edongueso junior, Robert Evans, and an incredible cast of the greatest talent in the tech media with over 18 hours of interviews, commentary and bizarre stories all told from the Better Offline Pop up studio connected to its own open bar.

[Krystal Ball]

Today I did five hours of back to back panels on artificial intelligence.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It included a number of great moments.

[Krystal Ball]

Including an entire room full of people.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Laughing about people losing their jobs due to artificial intelligence.

[Ed Zitron]

Will we make it out Alive? There's only one way to find out. Tune in starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026 and listen to the literal best tech podcast ever recorded. Listen to Better offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you happen to get your podcasts.

[Krystal Ball]

Turning now to China. You know, I do think that this is genuinely the most important after effect and question of the post Maduro world is how are Russia, China going to react? What will the world take away, let's say, from this US action of extraordinarily renditioning Nicolas Maduro and inside of Venezuela. Obviously this is a country, Ryan, maybe you can tell us more, but had deep ties with Cuba, had deep ties with Russia, had deep ties with China, largely with China. It wasn't ideological. China was like look, we don't care who governs you, we'll take the oil, we'll come in, we'll buy as much as we possibly want. And that's why everybody's eyes kind of went wide here when Delsey Rodriguez, the so called new pro American or like you know, American puppet I guess, if you want to stay down in Venezuela at her swearing in. Guys, let's go and Play this video just openly starts to embrace the Chinese ambassador, the Russian ambassador, and then following the Iranian ambassador. And I mean, clearly, I think it was a telegraphed signal from Venezuela, from the Rodriguez regime. I guess we should call, call it now. But in and of itself, it does show you the Chinese are not gonna take this just lying down. I'm not saying they're gonna start a war or anything like that, but they're gonna start planning for the future. There was actually a Chinese delegation inside of Venezuela that met with Maduro hours before he was actually kidnapped. And so you put it all together and their takeaway from this geopolitical is going to be the most important one. So Russia's bogged down in Ukraine. They're more of a second rate power, but the first rate power here has to be looking around and just going, okay, what do we do now? And I mean, I want your analysis, but we'll also show everybody inside Beijing they're having a lot of very interesting debates about what this all means.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, and this goes back to our sanctions policy, which Trump heavily ramped up. He tried to do his coup, tried to coup Maduro in his first term. Didn't happen. So they deeply ramped up the sanctions, which produced two things, well, three things, and they led to each other misery among the people of Venezuela, which then led to an outflow of migration. That's why we have so many Venezuelans pouring into the country from the time of Trump's sanctions up until fairly recently. And then it also led to tightening relationships between Venezuela and Russia, Iran and China, because those countries can then come in and get basically heavily discounted oil, because now, because you're blocked from selling it to lots of other places. So we created all of the conditions that we're now complaining about, both the migration crisis and also the tight relationship between, between Venezuela and these countries that we consider our adversaries, which we're now saying we're gonna go in and solve just with violence. Put up this next element up on the screen because this is that image that you saw is now in direct conflict with Trump's order to Rodriguez. So this is the Trump administration told Venezuela's interim president the regime must meet several conditions before being allowed to pump more oil. And the demands are the country must kick out China, Russia, Iran and Cuba and sever economic ties. Venezuela must agree to partner exclusively with the US on oil production and favor America when selling heavy crude oil. And so we can talk about Cuba in a second, because that's very, that's a rubio element here, but, like, who cares about Cuba? Oh, Rubio cares about Cuban. And they think that this is the way that they're going to.

[Krystal Ball]

To.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Destroy that government as well. But it's like, this is. And this goes to your point about spheres of influence and everything else. Like, wait, kick them out. We kick them out. So what if.

[Krystal Ball]

What if China. We can. To what end? Right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

So can China say, all right, you know what? I want the US out of South Korea.

[Krystal Ball]

Bingo.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The Philippines, Japan, Malaysia. Japan, like, get out.

[Krystal Ball]

You can say that. Yeah, exactly. And this is what I'm trying to say is everyone's like, I got a lot of income in. They were like, this is the world that you want to live in. Spheres of influence. And I said, yeah, I believe strongly in spheres of influence. I also believe, though, that other countries have spheres of influence where we also want a lot of influence. And part of the reason why you should tread lightly is to always make sure that, let's say we're acting. You know, the west people said, you can't allow Chinese and Russian domination of Venezuela. To say that is absurd. Did China and Russia buy oil from Venezuela? Yeah. Was Venezuela a Chinese puppet regime? Preposterous. I literally looked at the amount of oil that they were getting. It's like 5% total. Right. In terms of China's overall oil at all, it's really not that important to China. I mean, look, 5% is not nothing, but it's not exactly gonna kill you either. Same with the Russians. I mean, the Kremlin had these quasi ties to Maduro. They would kind of meet, you know, every once in a while, but it was not even close to some sort of puppet regime. It's mostly an alliance of convenience. One of the reasons why that I supported the deal with Maduro is that I was like, hey, the deal on the table is probably better for America because they effectively did it anyway. You keep the security apparatus. You try not to have the country descend into chaos. You let them sell us a ton of oil, and then basically, you can allow US Companies to go in there and then sell it to the world. That's what Trump even said. Trump said, we're gonna sell China a ton of oil. He literally said that. It's just that as long as the US Companies are the ones who are going to drill it, I mean, okay, that we could have had that deal under Maduro, too. So I'm like, I don't really care. But the thing here is, if you're China again and you're watching this Explicit embrace of spheres of influence, then yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

They can say, put up the third element here.

[Krystal Ball]

Same thing.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's what Sagar's talking about here. Put up this Washington Post and a lot of other news outlets reporting China studying US strike for lessons and opportunities. And there's a funny pro American slant to this coverage which is saying that the evil, greedy and self interested and selfish Chinese who love to do this sort of thing are now very excited because the US doing it is giving them a green light. What that misses is that we've been doing this kind of thing for 100 plus years. This is not new. But for those hundred plus years, 200 years, we have been a shining city on a hill and we've had these ideals, right?

[Krystal Ball]

And sometimes, sometimes, yeah, we like to think so. We've stated the idea, we tell the.

[Saagar Enjeti]

People that while we tell the people that. Whereas now we're just raw, like, yeah, we're just taking the oil. So China's like, it's so. But I don't. Anyway, go ahead. So how do you think China's responding to this?

[Krystal Ball]

I think that this is the best. I have always advocated for honesty in international relations. That's why I think sometimes that's why I mean the whole, the actual neocon dream of like Maria Machado and all that, I'm like, it's ridiculous. If we're gonna do anything with Venezuela, it's gonna be over oil. And that's, you know, and to Trump, at least he said it out loud. Cause at least we can speak honestly about oil, about power projection and about whether this is, is good idea, bad idea. That's how I think that everything should really be looked at. Well, with China, what they love more than anything, if you talk to the Chinese or the Russians. But I had this once from a friend who actually negotiated directly with the Chinese and specifically talked with them sometimes about the Taiwan question. And what they would always point to is we would try to lecture them about norms. They're like, oh, norms like Iraq, right? And they would just, every time, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. I knew somebody who sat across the table from Kim Jong Un and I spoke with them a little bit about it. And every single time, denuclearization, he's like, oh, like Gaddafi, right. You know, I mean there's nothing that they love more than pointing this out. Putin even famously said that he was asked by a US journalist about democracy and he said, you mean the democracy that you bring into Iraq. He's like, we do not want that here in Russia. You know, can't blame him. It's kind of a good point. Right. And so. So what I see inside of this is that it has always driven them crazy is the hypocrisy about norms and respect for international law. And all of this, which the Chinese and the Russians correctly say is the architecture of the U.S. empire after World War II, which was built to make it flourish. That's all very true, even though I do want everything to be dealt with honestly. We should also say nobody cares if China takes over Taiwan because of international law. We care about the chips. That's it. Okay. If it was a military dictatorship and it had tsmc, would we really be talking about, like. No, I don't. And I'll be honest, too. I don't care if Taiwan is a democracy or not. It has. It wasn't, you know, when it originally was founded.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's an interesting poll.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Yeah, it would be. It's ridiculous, right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Is Taiwan.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, we have to defend it. Cause it's a democracy. Who cares? Sorry. It's all about whether we get the chips or not. That's it. Period. Now, the story, though, from Beijing is they're looking at this exact story with Venezuela, and they're like, yes, we agree. Great powers have interests in their spheres of influence. Taiwan is. This isn't. They don't even talk about it as an external policy. They said, this is the internal policy of China, period. You will not interfere in our country's affairs. They believe in. They always call it mutual respect for each other's. For each country. And what they mean by that is they're like, this is part of our country. And so inside of China, what they're studying. And Hal Brands, who I love, he's a very interesting guy, he wrote this quote, if you are headed toward a world where great powers can use force and use powers ruthlessly in their own neighborhoods, that precedent is not a bad one from China's perspective. He says it fits exactly with the way Beijing would like to behave in the places like the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. And what they've done inside of China not only is look at this operation, but what I love, too, is over there, they're a little bit puzzled. So let's put the next one up there on the screen. On their social media, there have been wild debates with kind of their version of influencers. One camp said, we should immediately do this to Taiwan. I mean, anyone can indict anybody, especially.

[Saagar Enjeti]

In China, except go further, obviously. Right?

[Krystal Ball]

But the debate by the smarter Chinese, they go, yeah, there's only one problem. Taiwan is ours. So we wouldn't keep the regime. They're like, in a lot of ways, it's very stupid from the US Perspective because they just took away Maduro, but they kept the rest of the apparatus. If we were to do this, we would arrest the Taiwanese president and the entire cabinet and run the security forces and invade or strike some sort of capitulation deal which would actually entail Beijing running this entire thing. So the Chinese are looking at this with both. I wouldn't say awe per se, because everybody knew the US could do this, but the Chinese are looking at this with, oh, okay, so we get to do this type of stuff in our own backyard and you can't say anything about it. But they're also looking at it with the same critical eye that we are. Ryan of well, yeah, you might have taken out Maduro, but you still kept the entire apparatus. And a lot of people who are anti American or pro Russian, pro Chinese, they're like, you don't have nearly enough control. If anything, you didn't go far enough. But the precedent, at the very least in China, they're loving it. This is the best possible thing that has happened for them in a long time. I'm not saying it's gonna make Taiwan more likely or not. It makes it, if it happens, that the playbook of the way that they would message it, the way they would deal with the administration, the way they would deal with Europe, and I wanna talk a lot about European hypocrisy too, because they all support this too. With Venezuela, it's like, yeah, good luck with that one. Talking about, I mean, you have Zelensky out there openly celebrating it, saying, oh, the US should go do this to Putin. Now I'm like, oh, yeah, that's definitely not gonna work against you. Smaller power in the sphere of influence of another greater power, let's say, than you. So the hypocrisy that's been exposed in all of this and also the explicit affirmation of sphere of influence doctrine is one that the Chinese, again, I don't think it'll make it more likely or less whenever it comes to Taiwan. If they're going to do it, they're going to do it. But it makes the eventual way that they do and are able to maintain relations around its own in Asia and also with Europe, it makes that very, very different, which is much, much to their benefit, I think, as a result of this action.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And the one thing I'd push back on is that I think There's a little bit of projection from these American analysts who are saying that China wants to be a bully like this and is excited about now the possibility that they can do that. I think that's. We love to be a bully, but Chinese approach to these two smaller countries, I don't think they love the way that China deals with them necessarily. It's never fun to deal with a much more powerful partner. But China and the US Criticizes China for this. China always respects the sovereignty and the internal politics of the country that they're doing business with. They don't come in and complain about human rights violations. Like they don't. They're not like, you need to do this, you need to do that, or you need to take this position. Even when it comes to the United States. They're like, you want to work with the United States, Work with the United States. We have a deal that we want to do here. We want to help build you some infrastructure. And in exchange for that, we're going to make loans and the loans are going to be repaid in the case of Venezuela, in oil. Like that's what they want to do. They don't actually want to come in and arrest people and tell them that they have to live the way that the Chinese think they want to live. So I think that the US Confuses.

[Krystal Ball]

Itself a little bit because in the case of Taiwan, they literally do. Right. They. They actually do care whether Taiwan. I mean, that depends a little bit different.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. Or I would also Taiwan is part of China.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. According to the US you're talking about like the outer empire. Let's. If there is such thing.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Or Africa.

[Krystal Ball]

No, but I do think they care about Japan, for example, which I, I can just go and put this up on the screen. Let's go ahead and put. Where do I have it here with China, or at least I did. The Chinese very recently, I think just yesterday actually did a bunch of export controls against Japan because they said something marginally supportive of Taiwan, though they do care actually, when the people in their backyard have their policy towards the United States and, or to Taiwan. But I will say this, and I saw a great piece of analysis. I wish I knew who it was. Is that the current way that this is happening is that the Chinese are kind of like the Soviets in the 1950s, where there were tremendous military power in their backyard. As in, like they had control of the ussr, they crushed, you know, Hungary, they had control there, but they were watching leftist aligned regimes, let's say in the outer empire places like in South America or others get Africa get which our guests we're going to talk about get bullied around by the United States. And what the Soviet Union did is explicitly then made a choice to go all in on militarization because they said we can't allow that. And so, so that if anything is likely to change because the Chinese are gonna say, well, we can't win with soft power if the other side's gonna be using hard power. And they might just fully embrace a US Style policy and say that this clearly is not working necessarily to our benefit. They kind of have a 2 fork in the road way and I could easily see that them kind of switching gears.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Although a lot of those socialist countries or insurgent movements would complain that actually the Soviet Union did not go all in and they wish they had gone in more because China had split with the Soviet Union then they were actually often siding with or just not involved at all. We'll talk about that in our Angola segment later. But real quickly, speaking of those, let's talk about Cuba for a second. So Rubio thinks that this is his path to regime change in Cuba. Like that. He's made that quite explicit. He even said it out loud, put up a four here. So he's going to successfully cut oil off to the island. Now, when it comes to immiserating the population. And so this headline here, China's support helping Cuba advance towards Energy Sovereignty and sustainability. It's in a pro China publication. So the question here, there are two questions here. Can they cut off energy? Yes, it does seem like they're going to be able to cut off oil going to Cuba. What will that do to daily life in Cuba, but also what will it do when it comes to access to energy? So the problem that Rubio has when it comes to access to energy is that yet the US has so thoroughly annihilated the island that a significant percentage of the population has no electricity all day long already. And a lot of the island has like two hours of electricity. So they are used to suffering. So they have created so much suffering that they can only marginally increase it, you know, by this tiny bit. Now the problem is Cuba was using a lot of the oil that they were getting from Venezuela and then reselling it internationally and then using the currency that they were getting to keep their economy alive amid these sanctions and other blockades and obstacles the US put in front of them. So even though you can barely, only you can barely reduce the amount of power that Cubans have access to, what you can do is strip the island of currency entirely and just like, basically shut things down and create almost starvation like conditions. There are starvation, like conditions actually underway in Cuba. Now. Those will ramp up, but to the point of how little there is left to take away. You can put up a five here. This is a chart from the Financial Times. Venezuela is no longer even the largest supplier of oil to Cuba. That is actually now Mexico. And Mexico has slightly increased its exports to Cuba, which has put it above Venezuela, whose exports have completely collapsed. And that's because of the sanctions, because Venezuela just doesn't have the amount to export anymore. Now, Sheinbaum has said that she's sticking with Cuba, and Trump has been very frustrated at Sheinbaum for this. So this is going to be another serious moment of confrontation between Mexico and the United States because Sheinbaum views it as, I think, a matter of principle. And also she sees the walls closing in. Like right wing governments are taking over all over the entire hemisphere.

[Krystal Ball]

Also. It's a sovereign country. They're like, look, we're gonna sell oil to everyone, right?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Who are you?

[Krystal Ball]

They are a buyer. We'll sell it. Right, Exactly.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Who are you?

[Krystal Ball]

And see, let me. This is a perfect example of why all these idiots chanting Monroe Doctrine or realism or any of that. Why would you base your relations with a nation which controls 40% of your bilateral trade on an island of Cuba which is off the coast of Florida? For purely ideological purposes. I said this about India. I was like, okay, so we are going to subjugate all of our relations with one of the world's largest countries, the largest by population, one of the largest economies in the world, based on Russia and on Ukraine. It's like, clearly the bilateralism should be purely on, like, okay, what's good for us, like right here, not what's going on in some tertiary style conflict. That's kind of like neoconservatism or neoliberalism at its height. Is that because Rubio's father didn't like Cuba? We're going to subjugate our relations here with Claudia Sheinbaum and with Mexico. I mean, what are our primary problems with Mexico? Let's say drugs, cartels and trade. That's it. Everything should be completely on that basis. And, you know, on the drug front, she's done okay. I mean, enough, right?

[Ryan Seacrest]

Doing what?

[Krystal Ball]

She can send 10,000 troops to the border shot shut, didn't complain when the border got completely shut down. I mean, has pretty significantly worked with the administration when it comes to immigration, maintained her own support domestically you know, being seen as somebody who's willing to play ball but also willing to stand up. I mean, what else could you ask.

[Saagar Enjeti]

For, especially for a country who is just south of the most voracious drug users on the planet? We want to get high really bad and we have a lot of money to do it. And then we complain that people are selling it to us.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, we actually, yes, some of much of it is supply driven, but we can, we can save that argument, I think, for another day. I think at the very least, what we can show everybody here is that with the China situation, and with, with China in particular, they are. This was more important of a moment than I think I originally thought at the time, because at first I said, okay, we do all this stuff, stuff every day, overthrowing countries in Latin America. If anything, it's an old return to U.S. policy. But in the current environment, I think what I did underestimate from the Chinese perspective, was the explicit embrace of sphere of influence doctrine, especially when we're so overextended. I mean, if you look from China's perspective, they see now a boondoggle. Who knows what's going to happen, happen in Venezuela. Could go, it could go good, it could go probably bad. I would bet on bad over the long run. You look at Israel, I mean, Israel's asking us to bomb Iran again yesterday.

[Saagar Enjeti]

They want to, they want to go back to.

[Krystal Ball]

They want to go back to. Yeah, they're literally bombing Lebanon right now, right? So something can pop off there. You got the Houthi situation, the streets of Hormuz, and now we've got a literal security guarantee for Ukraine. All right? So you look at all of that, you look at the US military overextension, and just like nobody can pay attention even one thing here in Washington, let alone four that I just named. And that's, I mean, the meme about Marco Rubio, how much is he supposed to run and to pay attention to? There's literally only so many hours in a day that embrace. And also combined with the fact that China has been studying these Russian sanctions now for four years and has explicitly created all of these alternate financial systems to make sure that they are sanction proof from the US economy, I've never really thought, I've never seen it as more likely that they'll just be able.

[Saagar Enjeti]

To do whatever, right? And China is cautious and prefers to work within the status quo. But if the US appears to be erratic and unstable, then they can't bank on the status quo. So we're taking away from them their preferred option, which is just to, like, sit back and wait and continue to grow and amass power and do their thing and believe that, like the next week and the week after that, things are going to be mostly the same, except their position will get a little bit better. But if the giant power over there is like, we're going to create Somaliland, we're going to take Venezuela, we're going to war with Iran again, we're going to take Greenland, then China has to be like, okay, well, then we got to make some moves.

[Krystal Ball]

That's what I was talking about. The Soviet comparison is that they went from a point of view of like, like we have control of our internal policy. Do we have to be able to project?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, it ended up being their downfall with Afghanistan. But you know, it. There was a strategic logic behind all of it. I think it's dangerous because that's what led to Afghanistan. That was a disaster for them and for us eventually, in terms of the blowback.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. Flu season is here and the in store pharmacy has you covered with a free flu shot with most insurance plans. And as a thank you, get up to $20 off your grocery purchase. Plus it's cough and cold season. Stock up on all the season's essentials and get ready for relief with discounts on items like Mucinex Children's multi symptom cold medicine, Zara B's children's cough syrup and Emergen C. Offer ends January 27th. Restrictions apply and offers may vary by location. Visit Albertsons or Safeway.com for more details.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Hi, I'm Dr. Priyanka Walley.

[Hari Kondabolu]

And I'm Hari Kondabolu.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

It's a new year and on the podcast Health Stuff, we're resetting the way we talk about our health, which means.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Being honest about what we know, what we don't know, and how messy it can all be. I like to sleep in late and sleep early. Is there a chronotype for that or am I just depressed?

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We talk to experts who share real experiences and insight.

[Krystal Ball]

You just really need to find where it is that you can have an impact in your own life and just start doing that.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We break down the topics you want.

[Krystal Ball]

To know more about sleep, stress, mental.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Health and how the world, world around us affects our overall health.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

We talk about all the ways to keep your body and mind inside and out healthy. We human beings, all we want is connection. We just want to connect with each other.

[Hari Kondabolu]

Health stuff is about learning, laughing and feeling a little less alone.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Ed Zitron]

I'm Ed Zitron of the Better Offline Podcast and I want you to join me at this year's Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, Nevada. Starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026, we're doing 10 radio style podcast episodes about the world's biggest tech conference. And we're going to dig into the latest and weirdest gadgets, gizmos and horrible AI gear that the tech industry is desperate to sell you all while covering the biggest stories in Silicon Valley as the AI bubble threatens to burst. I'll be joined by David Roth, Chloe Radcliffe, Adam Conover, Cory Doctorow, Ed Ongueso Jr, Robert Evans, and an incredible of the greatest talent in the tech media with over 18 hours of interviews, commentary and bizarre stories all told from the Better Offline Pop up studio connected to its own open bar.

[Krystal Ball]

Today I did five hours of back to back panels on artificial intelligence.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It included a number of great moments.

[Krystal Ball]

Including an entire room full of people.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Laughing about people losing their jobs due to artificial intelligence.

[Ed Zitron]

Will we make it out Alive? There's only one way to find out. Tune in starting January 6th through January 10th, 2026 and listen to the literal best tech podcast ever recorded. Listen to Better offline on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you happen to get your podcasts.

[Krystal Ball]

Turning now to Venezuela and to oil. Let's go and put this up here on the screen. Trump administration now saying, quote, I am pleased to announce the interim authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 million barrels of high quality sanctioned oil amongst oil enthusiasts. By the way, that was the most offensive term was calling Venezuelan oil high quality. This oil will be sold at its market price. That money will be controlled by me as President of the United States to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States. So we now have not only imperial booty, but we also have an imperial fund. So we are watching the recreation of the British Empire, the American Venezuelan oil company, kind of like the Dutch East Indies company of the 1600-00s be created in real time. But Ryan, this is combat. This is at the very same time this is happening. Just to explain this, 30 to 50 million, it is all likely. I was reading some oil analysts this morning that was the oil stockpiled at the docks because we're sanctioning. Because sanctioning is not being let out. So it's actually taking up a lot of space. It was making it unable for them to have more oil come to the docks. And it was kind of a gesture that was made here by the United States. But combined, I think, with the demand that you talked about earlier, this is kind of an explicit, you have to transfer this oil to us now immediately, with the combination of you kick Russia out of the country, kick China, kick Iran, all of these people have to be kicked out of the country. So a complete kind of takeover, at least for potentially right now, of the oil industry inside of Venezuela. But that's also going to run up against reality. Right? And inside the country could not be. This may not go over that well.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You know, what's interesting about this particular announcement is that typically what the United States does is it claims it is doing a good thing that is for the benefit of everybody. But in fact, the details are a lot grayer and it's really for the benefit of the United States and, and some oil companies and everybody else is going to get screwed. In this case, they're doing the reverse. He's publicly saying that this is for the benefit of the United States and in particular some oil companies, and screw you, we're doing whatever we want. But if you look at the details, it's actually kind of ironically helpful to the Venezuelan government and to pdbsa. So to your point, all this oil because of our sanctions, and we underline that, again, like, we created the problem that they now have, so all their storage capacity is mostly full, so they need somewhere to sell this stuff to. Previously we revoked their license to be able to sell it. The conditions that he's actually allowing this oil to move out under are very similar to the conditions of being licensed to just move it. That's right. The percentages that are getting shared in different ways are all similar to what the licensing structure was. The South Florida lobby in Rubio demanded that that license be stripped. So he stripped the license and now he's allowing them to do the thing that he was licensing them to do. But calling it imperialism, it's comical. It's like, what do you. It's like he's trying to satisfy the. The South Florida Gusanos with this bloodlust, but not giving them the actual thing.

[Krystal Ball]

In reality, it's like, actually it's not a horrible deal, you know, for the Venezuelans. They're going to do a profit. It's going to be sold at the market price, spot price. Right. So you'll be able to actually clear a decent amount of money on it, you know, in Terms of the. I mean, that's another part of the issue, is that oil is a literal global market. So the idea that this is just immediately going to flow into US Gas pump. Not exactly true. As you said, it frees up some of the dock space over there. But what I want to know is your theory on how this holds up in Venezuela. Because if we put the next one on the screen, Ryan, you can break it down. Some of the marches in the streets that are pro Maduro right now. I mean, what do you think, like, for these people, and if they're going to read this headline, they don't know the details of oil like you and I, or, I mean, the real industry, we're just reading kind of from them. I mean, it's not exactly something that I think will be a popular move inside of the country.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What cuts, what makes it more complicated is that. And we interviewed Carlos Roan, former deputy Foreign Minister of Venezuela, yesterday on our job site show, and he was making the point that there's so little. And I don't want to actually, let me just say it in my own, in my own words, not put it in his. But there's so little export going on right now that there's very little revenue that's being shared from that export with the Venezuelan people. Like the Bolivaran Revolution was based on this idea that we're going to use the proceeds from our vast oil reserves, which at the time, oil's getting up to $100 a barrel, and that's $100 at that, at that time. Not today's money. Maybe that's 150. So oil's like three, four times as valuable at the time. And then he's spreading, spreading, and Shabazz is spreading the wealth around. And by 2012, it was the Norway model. That was the dream thing. Yeah. Things were really, like, living conditions in, say, 2012. Thirteen had never been better.

[Krystal Ball]

Wow, interesting.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And then 2014, the bottom falls out. Shabaz died. And then the bottom falls out on the oil industry. And they hadn't consolidated the economy to a place where it was diversified enough to withstand this collapse in energy prices. And they've been struggling ever since then. You throw the sanctions on top. Here we are. But so the point would be that Venezuelans may be like, well, there's really no, there's nothing to be upset about in the sense that other than the dignity and the insult to our sovereignty. But, like, we're not getting anything from this oil anyway. Like, the thing is destroyed. Like, it's Effectively wrecked. So if they can actually start exporting some of this and start hiring people and building the industry back up, then. And if Rodriguez can message it, which he seems to be effectively doing, saying, like, okay, this is what Trump is saying. But look, look, we're still in control, still our oil, then I think that the Venezuelan people would be actually okay with it, because what they want is living conditions to improve, obviously.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. And what they don't want, though, is Maria Machado, who is currently still making a bid for leadership, who supposedly won.

[Saagar Enjeti]

With her proxy, won with 80% of the vote, like a year and a half ago, and now has no support in the country, according to Trump. No, I mean, I mean, this is.

[Krystal Ball]

One of those where it's when, when somebody is like, the legitimate leader. I'm like, maybe, you know, it's one of the. I, I think I've done a lot of study.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think Maduro did some serious fraud in that election.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah. I'm not discounting that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm saying, though, when the west is like, constantly like the literature, like, did she win?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Did her guy win with 70, 80 of the vote? No way. Get out of here. Look, and where did.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm glad. My suspicion.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Where did that go? Where'd the 70, 80% go?

[Krystal Ball]

Point. Yeah, good point.

[Saagar Enjeti]

If she's Nelson Mandela, like, people would be, like, in the streets demanding that she return.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. So maybe she did lie, actually. Or maybe the west lied to us about what happened here. Wouldn't be the first time. But by the way, in her current bid for power, she is now offering to share her Nobel Peace Prize with Donald Trump. Reportedly, he was very upset that she got the Nobel and he didn't. Let's take a listen.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Did you at any point offer to give him the Nobel Peace Prize? Did that actually happen? I had read that somewhere. I wasn't sure if it was true.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Well, it hasn't happened yet, but I.

[Krystal Ball]

Certainly would love to be able to personally tell him that we believe the Venezuelan people, because this is a price.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Other Venezuelan people certainly want to give.

[Krystal Ball]

It to him and share it with him.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

What has happened, that's what he has done, as I said, is historic.

[Krystal Ball]

It's a huge step towards a democratic transition. We want to share the.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Why don't they just send in the Delta Force and take it from her?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, they could, Ryan. You don't even need that, dude. She's in Russia, she's in Europe. She's not even in. She's not even in Venezuela. And she said that she's going to return. I mean, I wonder about that. Right? Because, I mean, they don't want her. Her over there. At the same time, they can't do anything to her because. Or at least they shouldn't, because that means that the U.S. south Florida people would go absolutely crazy. By the way, Lindsey Graham said yesterday that we will eventually, at such time, it is appropriate, there will be a democratic transition in Venice.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We'll get to that.

[Krystal Ball]

Just like we heard about Iraq.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Krystal Ball]

People will be holding up their fingers with the thing on it again. We'll all celebrate. I'm sure it'll just be totally fine. Above board. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I just love the idea of just. So Trump was asked about this, actually. They said, like, are you upset with her? Did you not make her president? As if he could make her president. But did that have something to do with you not backing her because you didn't think she deserved the Nobel Peace Prize?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And you're upset that you didn't get it. And Trump said, well, I don't think she deserved it. So he admitted. He's like, but no, of course not. That is.

[Krystal Ball]

That wouldn't be.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That wouldn't be. Why?

[Krystal Ball]

The truth. We will.

[Saagar Enjeti]

She did dedicate it to him at the ceremony, but that wasn't enough. She should have just said, no.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Saagar Enjeti]

How dare you. The true man of peace.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. Is president.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And everything Trump has done since that day has proven that he is a.

[Krystal Ball]

Recipient of the FIFA.

[Saagar Enjeti]

A true man of peace. Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

Okay. Finally, though, confirming some reporting. We'll end this block. Trump basically admitting Maduro's dancing did send him over the edge. Let's take a listen.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And he's a violent guy. He gets up there and he tries to imitate my dance a little bit.

[Krystal Ball]

But he's a violent guy. He imitates.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

I don't know if it was your dance.

[Krystal Ball]

You know, you gotta say Maduro. He wasn't a horrible. He wasn't a horrible dancer.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He's got his own dance, actually.

[Krystal Ball]

He was good. I thought he was good. You know, I've had people in Venezuela sending me stuff now for months since we started covering this story. His imagined rendition. It's not horrible in Spanish. Yeah, it's really not that bad. And especially while wearing this sombrero. Somebody sent me that literally the day before he was taken out. He had this hilarious New Year's message where he was just driving around and talking about all of the various streets of Washington, D.C. he's a constitution Avenue. Amazing.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He said Bolivar.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Bolivar. Yeah. He's right there.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, so.

[Krystal Ball]

Because he drove, apparently, while he was here. Live, CBS Sunday, Hollywood's biggest party is now bigger than ever.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Perfect.

[Krystal Ball]

No, no.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The Golden Globes. With more stars, more glamour, more chaos and more host Nikki Glazer.

[Krystal Ball]

We're gonna laugh at the celebrities that.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Can take it and completely ignore the ones who can't. I'm just kidding. They're not safe, either.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The Golden Globes.

[Krystal Ball]

Live CBS Sunday, 8 Eastern, 5 Pacific.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And streaming on Paramount.

[LifeLock Advertiser]

Plus, the new year brings new health goals and wealth goals. Protecting your identity is an important step. Your info is in endless places that could expose you to identity theft leading to lost funds. LifeLock monitors millions of data points per second. If your identity is stolen, Lifelock's restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed, or your money back. Resolve to make identity, health and wealth part of your New year's goals with LifeLock. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com iheart Terms apply.

[Dr. Priyanka Wali]

Ever feel like your bedroom's shrinking? Don't worry. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space with Ikea Bedroom Storage Solutions. Think dressers, wardrobes, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can keep it all. Your vintage band tees safe, those limited edition sneakers, plenty of room. And yes, your childhood teddy bear gets a spot, too. Don't sell what you love. Store it instead with Ikea Bedroom Storage Solutions. Shop now@IKEA US bedroom storage.

[Krystal Ball]

This is an Iheart podcast. Guaranteed human.