3/10/26: Trump Threatens 'Fury' On Iran, Israel Panics, Iran Rejects Ceasefire

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — Episode Summary

Episode Date: March 10, 2026
Main Focus: Trump Threatens 'Fury' on Iran, Israel Panics, Iran Rejects Ceasefire

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the rapidly escalating Iran war, examining President Trump’s contradictory messaging and threats, Israel’s apparent nervousness and possible shift toward a ceasefire, and Iran’s hardened stance with no indication of backing down. Hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti dissect the tangled strategic, political, and economic dimensions of the conflict, analyze the implications for global energy markets, and discuss the shifting calculus of regional and global powers. The episode features sharp skepticism of the official narratives and highlights the human, political, and military costs of the ongoing war.

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Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Trump’s Chaotic Messaging and “Fire and Fury” Threats

• Contradictory Announcements Affecting Markets
  • Trump tells a CBS reporter the war “will be over very soon,” sparking a spike in the S&P 500 and lower oil prices. Minutes later, at the press conference, he walks the statement back with aggressive rhetoric.
  • Quote (Saagar, 04:10):

    "He said that the war will be over very soon. Immediately The S&P 500 shot up. Oil prices rocketed down. Everybody was so excited... And then he took to the Stage and. Yeah, that's not really what we got at all."

• Escalation in Language
  • The president warns that if Iran disrupts oil in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will inflict devastation: “Death, fire and fury will rain upon them. But I hope and pray it does not happen.”
  • Quote (Trump, read by Saagar, 06:08):

    "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far... Death, fire and fury will rain upon them."

• Political and Economic Pressure
  • Trump’s actions are interpreted as efforts to buy time amid volatile markets and adviser leaks advocating for an “off-ramp.”
  • Quote (Krystal, 09:23):

    “Trump’s actions yesterday were obviously just some good old-fashioned market manipulation... He’s trapped, because if he declares mission accomplished and tries to walk away, the Iranians have been very consistent in saying, ‘We’re not done.’”

Timestamps:

• [02:12] Topic introduction & rundown
• [04:10] Market and press conference analysis
• [06:08] “Fire and Fury” threat breakdown
• [09:23] Political calculation and entrapment

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2. Escalation and Retaliation: A War Without an Off-Ramp

• Regional Impact and Active War Zones
  • Explosions reported in Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and further Iranian and Lebanese casualties—underscoring the war’s spread ([11:39]).
  • Quote (Saagar, 11:39):

    "Just the last 35 minutes... Explosion following sirens in northern Tel Aviv... Fire broke out in the roe's industrial complex... explosions in Doha, Qatar as well as the UAE."

• Iran's Endurance and Resolve
  • Iranian leadership personally invested in revenge after the killing of family members.
  • Quote (Krystal, 12:07):

    “Their leader now is the dude whose mom, dad, wife and son you just murdered... You think he's ready to shake hands and say, okay, well, let's, you know, let's go back to the negotiating table? I don't think so.”

• U.S. Military Risks and Potential Quagmire
  • Discusses possibility of a risky special operation to seize Iranian nuclear material, comparing to Afghanistan and Vietnam.
  • Quote (Saagar, 15:34):

    "You can't just send in small team of Delta Force. They know you're coming. That's why the 82nd Airborne has currently been put on notice and is awaiting orders..."

  • Quote (Krystal, 16:22):

    “To say it would be risky is really to undersell it... The logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive. Meaning that this isn’t just risky. This is practically a death wish.”

Timestamps:

• [11:39] Regional war updates
• [12:07] Iranian leadership’s motivation
• [16:22] U.S. military strategy and risks

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3. Oil, Economic Fallout & Global Chaos

• Energy Markets in Turmoil
  • Volatile oil prices; G7 considering releasing strategic reserves; confusion and panic in markets.
  • Quote (Saagar, 08:08):

    “While oil... it’s trading around $90 a barrel. It was all the way up to like 120 yesterday. Extremely volatile.”

• Russia’s Gains Amid the Chaos
  • Trump-Putin call, speculation about sanction relief. War drives up Kremlin revenue from oil sales.
  • Quote (Saagar, 19:28):

    “It's all good. We can even move towards a peace settlement in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kremlin war coffers are going up like this.”

Timestamps:

• [08:08] Market and oil price volatility
• [18:48] Russian leverage and Trump-Putin call

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4. Scandal: Civilian Casualties and Accountability

• Strikes on Civilian Targets; Official Denials
  • U.S. Tomahawk missile strikes a girls' school in Iran (over 168 girls, 12+ teachers killed). Trump claims Iran or someone else could have fired the missile—a claim debunked in real time.
  • Quote (Saagar, 24:02):

    “Super generic missile. Only the United States, Britain and Australia have.”

  • Quote (Krystal, 24:30):

    “Trump backpedals to like, ‘well, there’s an investigation.’ I mean, just unbelievable bullshit that even Pete Hegseth is... has enough shame that he won’t go along with.”

• Erosion of Accountability
  • Reflection on past military scandals and lack of repercussions, with references to the Collateral Murder video and the “Israeli playbook.”
  • Quote (Krystal, 29:29):

    “What has happened here is with all of us watching the Gaza genocide happen... they do think that they can just get away with anything.”

Timestamps:

• [23:27] Girls' school strike and dodgy official responses
• [29:29] Declining standards for military accountability

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5. Israeli Calculus: Panicking and Leaking for an Exit?

• Israel Wary of Prolonged Conflict
  • Senior Israeli officials leak concerns about “open-ended attack” and hint at prefering a ceasefire.
  • Quote (Krystal, 39:23):

    "A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating open ended attack on Iran and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war..."

• "Mow the Lawn" Strategy
  • Israel may seek periodic, limited devastation of adversaries rather than full-scale regime change—a tactic known from Gaza.
  • Quote (Krystal, 41:48):

    "Probably be happy adopting effectively like a mow the lawn strategy... once the price gets too much to bear... okay, then we'll stop for now and then we'll go back in at a future time."

• Strains with Gulf Allies
  • UAE and Saudi Arabia distance themselves, denying involvement, and publicly criticize the conflict’s expansion.
  • Quote (Saagar, 49:10):

    "You can also see how in the Gulf, we are dramatically losing a lot of our allies..."

Timestamps:

• [39:23] Israeli officials leak worries
• [41:48] Israel’s strategic logic
• [49:10] Gulf state dynamics

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6. Regional Quake: Middle Eastern Allies Recalculate

• Gulf Allies Fearful, Publicly Dissenting
  • UAE and Saudi Arabia seek to avoid getting dragged further in; regional business elites openly blame U.S. for conflict’s spread. Expats and businesses flee Dubai as military and civilian infrastructure comes under attack.
  • Quote (Krystal, 53:13):

    “You’re not, you’re not the President… You're now freelancing, offering defense agreements to various countries.”

• U.S. Military Overstretched
  • THAAD and Patriot interceptors removed from Asia-Pacific to replenish Middle East stockpiles. Munitions and readiness crisis just days into conflict.
  • Quote (Saagar, 56:19):

    “We have burned through 5.6 billion in munitions in two days… It's been only been 10 days and we already have to do this.”

Timestamps:

• [49:10] Shifting Gulf state alliances
• [56:19] U.S. readiness crisis and munitions depletion

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7. Iran's Perspective: Existential War, No Trust in “Ceasefires”

• Iran Unwilling to Enter Talks or Accept Ceasefire
  • Top Ayatollah adviser interviewed by CNN dismisses dialogue. States war is existential, motivated wholly by survival, and that Iran is self-sufficient in arms:
    • Quote (Ayatollah Adviser, 61:04):

      “Iranian military is quite strong... we are not dependent on any other country for weapons…”

    • Quote (Ayatollah Adviser, 61:48):

      “It is an existential threat to the Islamic Republic and therefore we have to stay with full might…”

    • Quote (Ayatollah Adviser, 62:04):

      “I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore because Donald Trump had been deceiving others and not keeping with his promises...”

• War of Attrition Favored by Tehran
  • The Iranian logic: survive, maximize pain for U.S. and Israel, impose heavy political and economic costs, especially with an eye on U.S. midterms.
  • Quote (Dropsite via Saagar, 72:26):

    “Iran will not accept any ceasefire at this stage because what is pursuing is not a mere end to hostilities... but a deterrence restoring outcome that creates the conditions for lasting, enforceable settlement.”

• Hosts’ Analysis
  • Krystal and Saagar argue that U.S. and Israeli strategists fell for their own propaganda, underestimated Iranian learning and resolve, and now face a determined, entrenched adversary.
  • Quote (Saagar, 64:24):

    “It's a fight of survival versus a fight basically of choice, of convenience. It's like a side quest...”

  • Quote (Krystal, 68:30):

    “The internal view of the Iranians is that they are not stupid, that they are an adversary that is capable of learning and strategic thought... What is sold to the American people is that they're just crazy, you know, theocratic mad men.”

Timestamps:

• [60:40] Iran’s strategic perspective
• [64:24] Survival versus convenience
• [68:30] U.S. underestimates Iranian resolve

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the futility of escalation:
  • "Once you get into this escalatory cycle, it's not so easy as just putting up the Mission Accomplished banner and saying, we're going to walk away." — Krystal (09:23)
• On marketplace manipulation:
  • “Trump’s actions yesterday were obviously just some good old-fashioned market manipulation” – Krystal (09:23)
• On the war’s existential stakes:
  • “For Iran, winning this war just means survival... The bigger aspirational goal would be to push the US out of some of these countries in the region.” — Krystal (53:13)
• On the media’s failures:
  • "So the only adversarial the journalism that we occasionally get is a reporter being like, but if you end it, wouldn't that stop helping the Iranian people?" — Saagar (13:55)

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Segment Timestamps

• [02:12] Headlines and episode scope
• [04:10] Trump’s press conference and market effects
• [06:08] “Fire and Fury” and the administration’s internal divide
• [11:39] Active conflict: visuals, regional strikes, Israeli and U.S. military problems
• [16:22] Dangers and logistics of potential U.S. ground operation in Iran
• [23:18] Civilian casualties and attempts at deflection
• [39:23] Leaks from Israel and shift in strategy
• [49:10] Gulf allies' repositioning, regional economic fallout
• [56:19] U.S. military readiness crisis
• [60:40] Iran’s own perspective: existential, no appetite for a ceasefire

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Conclusion: Escalation Trap and the Road Ahead

Krystal and Saagar warn that all actors—Trump, Israel, and Iran—are now locked in an “escalation trap” with unclear off-ramps. Iran appears unwavering in pursuit of a protracted struggle, the U.S. is already embroiled in a conflict with spiraling costs and unclear objectives, and Israel faces the direct blowback of the very escalation it once encouraged. The costs—human, economic, strategic—are mounting, and the prospects for a negotiated end seem ever more remote.

Final Word (Krystal, 36:08):

“It looks like we are in an escalation trap. Looks like this thing is only expanding, only going to get more deadly, only going to grind on further into, you know, what may end up being a sort of war of attrition…”

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For Further Insight

• Dr. Mohammad Marandi (Iran perspective, [30:31])
• Dr. Trita Parsi (analysis quoted by Krystal, [34:24])
• Dropsite reporting (Iranian official, [72:26])

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This summary captures the critical arguments, tone, and primary content threads of the episode, excluding intros/outros and advertisements.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

This is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human.

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Next Monday, our 2026 iHeart podcast awards are happening live at south by Southwest.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is the biggest night in podcasting.

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We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry.

[Krystal Ball]

And the winner is.

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Creativity, knowledge and Passion will all be on full display.

[Joe Winterstein]

Thank you so much iheartradio.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Thank you to all the other nominees.

[Joe Winterstein]

You guys are awesome.

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Watch live next Monday at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific [e-mail] or the Veeps app.

[Krystal Ball]

Aigo Wodom is your host for the 2026 iHeart Podcast Awards live at south by Southwest.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Hello? Is anybody there?

[Krystal Ball]

Raised by a single mom, Aego may

[Saagar Enjeti]

have a few father related issues. Are we supposed to talk about your dad?

[Krystal Ball]

Her podcast, thanks dad is full of funny, heartfelt conversations with actors including fellow

[Saagar Enjeti]

SNL alums, comedians, musicians and more about

[Krystal Ball]

life and their wonderfully complicated relationships with their fathers.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think and hope that's a good thing.

[Krystal Ball]

Get to know Aygo follow Thanks dad with aygowodom and start listen on the free iHeartRadio app today.

[Jay Shetty]

Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast. My latest episode is with Hilary Duff, singer, actress and multi platinum artist.

[Stephanie Young]

You desire in family like this picture and that's not reality. My sister and I don't speak. It's definitely a very painful part of my life and I hope it's not forever, but it's for right now.

[Jay Shetty]

Listen to On Purpose with Jay Shetty on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.

[Krystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today.

[Krystal Ball]

What do we have? First of all, we do Trump gave a very head scratching press conference yesterday. We'll break that down for you. Also, Israel is leaking that maybe they've had enough. Maybe they'd like a ceasefire, at least for now. Iran, though, is signaling they want to keep going at least until the midterm. So we'll talk about everybody's strategy and where everybody is in this war at this point. Brandon Weikart is also gonna join us to break down the interceptor math and the damage that has been done to US Radars and the significance of that. As the war grinds on. Trump is urging oil tanker pilots to risk their lives to traverse the Strait of Hormuz as oil concerns continue to escalate and sort of dominate this conflict. We also have one non Iran block here, although I would argue they continue to be linked. Some new Epstein revelations, including new details about a potential cover up. Apparently guards were discussing a cover. There were some interesting Google searches, some interesting money transfers to one of these prison guards. And also those secret interviews of a Trump accuser that were hidden have now been made public. And one journalist was able to verify some of the details, corroborate some of the personal details that were offered in one of those interviews. These are obviously shocking revelations. So we will break that down for you as well.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that's right. Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing to the show breakingpoints.com this is the last week, I think it's over on Friday for our free trial we can put that promo graphic on the screen. You can use the code BP FREE26 to sign up for a free month trial. We would love to have you. Cost you nothing. You can cancel at any time. Of course you get access to all of our premium benefits and support all of our work here. If you cannot afford it, or I guess if you don't want to. No worries, just hit subscribe to our YouTube channel please and if you're listening to this as a podcast, please share an episode with a friend. Biggest week already in the history of breaking points. We're really, really pleased to have so many people join and trust us at such a critical time like this. As Crystal said, let's go ahead and start here with the Trump press conference. So Trump made a major announcement just to set the stage for everybody. Yesterday oil prices had gone sky high. They had come down a bit. The markets were down right around 3pm right before the markets closed. Trump calls or was called by a CBS News reporter and he said that the war will be over very soon. Immediately The S&P 500 shot up. Oil prices rocketed down. Everybody was so excited. The taco is coming. And then he took to the Stage and. Yeah, that's not really what we got at all. Let's take a listen.

[Jay Shetty]

They were separate, but everybody said the same thing. Make sure you win. We will. We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough. Yeah, please.

[Krystal Ball]

Thank you. Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your Defense Secretary

[Saagar Enjeti]

says this is just the beginning.

[Krystal Ball]

So which is it and how long should Americans be?

[Jay Shetty]

Well, I think you could say it both. The beginning. It's the beginning of building a new country. But they certainly. They have no navy, they have no air force, they have no antiaircraft equipment. It's all been blown up. They have no radar, they have no telecommunications, and they have no leadership. It's all gone. So, you know, you could look at that statement. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here. I could call it. Or we could go further. And we're going to go further. But. But, you know, they've said this about a lot of things no other president could do. Some of this shit I'm doing.

[Krystal Ball]

That's not true.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, certainly true. Definitely not a compliment. Let's go ahead and put a 2B, please, Eric, up on the screen just to show people again how any idea of some sort of taco. Trump always chickens out, as originally coined by Senator Chuck Schumer, now become a Wall Street Journal and or trader term has completely been dispelled. So late last night, Trump issues this missive. If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be buil as a nation again. Death, fire and fury will rain upon them. But I hope and pray it does not happen. This is a gift from the United States of America to China and all those nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait. Hopefully it is a gesture. We greatly appreciate it. Thank you for your attention to this matter. So, Fire and Fury Watchers, it's back. Fire and Fury, of course, originally coined in 2017. In that exchange between Trump and. What did he call Kim Jong Un? Rocket man.

[Krystal Ball]

Little rocket man. Little rocket man. Oh, wow.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Nine years since all of that happened. Feels like yesterday. But just to give people context, this is all indicative of a panicking administration over these rising energy prices. So while oil, as of this morning, it's trading around $90 a barrel. It was all the way up to like 120 yesterday. Extremely volatile. Everybody, of course, hanging on every word of the President. But regardless, it's still up some 30, 40% from when the war began. Just some last week. They are trying to find some sort of off ramp. Let's go ahead and put a 2 up there or sorry, a 1B up here on the screen. This is a Wall Street Journal story breaking late last night. What it says, as you guys can see in front of you, is that some of Trump's advisors in recent days have encouraged him to articulate a plan to extract the US from the war with Iran, make the case that the military had largely achieved its objectives. While many in the President's conservative base still support the operation, some of his advisors have privately expressed concerns that a longer war could deplete that support. So they're talking about political backlash, which again, I actually think at this point is the least of their problems. Because just this morning we hear from the United Arab Emirates that one of the largest refineries in the entire country, in the entire Middle east is now on fire. And they're like, hey, everybody, please stop circulating rumor. But yes, we are trying to contain a far a fire. I love the vague nature which they released it. Like when Saudi Arabia said incoming missiles into Dharan, please don't panic. And I was like, dharan is where Saudi Aramco is, so maybe we should panic. Same here with the uae. We know multiple targets were struck overnight all across both Iran, which we're gonna show you in a little bit. And this morning we're already waking up to the news that more significant oil infrastructure has been hit. So the war continues to widen. I think what the advisors are pointing to is that they can see gas prices. Look, maybe not 120, even 90. I mean, it's high, it's very high. And the only reason I think that it's Currently trading around 90 right now is that. And we'll get to this in a little bit, is that the G7 nations have decided to that basically that they will. They're open to releasing probably 30% of what's already been lost of the entire Strategic Petroleum Reserve from all across the world out into the open market to try and allay those fears. Same the S&P 500 as far as I know how.

[Krystal Ball]

So far it's down a little bit, futures down a little bit, but not

[Saagar Enjeti]

all the way back to where it was. But the point is, is that they saw this indication as Trump is open to some sort of offering. But traders have no idea. So you could see extreme volatility happen. I mean, if you ask me, fire and fury, that's a sell signal. That's just me.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, what it's. I mean, Trump's actions yesterday were obviously just some good old fashioned market manipulation. He saw things going south in terms of the stock market, he saw things going north in terms of the oil prices. It's like, I got to do something about this because I got to buy myself some time here, as much time as I can. So he, you know, calls up this reporter, says, oh, we're pretty much done. Schedules a press conference for after the markets close to be like, well, you could say that we're done, but also we're just beginning. It's kind of both at the same time somehow. My read of the situation is he actually would like to taco and listen to the aides and find some sort of way out of this, but he's trapped. Because if he now, like, declares mission accomplished and tries to walk away, the Iranians have been very consistent in saying, we're not done. Oh, no, you don't get to say when this is over, because we know we learned our lesson from the 12 Day War. We're not doing a ceasefire with you now until you have felt the pain. And we're gonna talk more about some of the specifics of what the Iranians are saying when we get to that portion. But. So he knows if he tries to walk away, there is a very, very strong likelihood, his intelligence reports are probably telling him this too, that the Iranians continue to strike. And so then you just look incredibly weak. So, you know, I think his aides are. It's incredible that they're already leaking to the press like, this is not going well. We want to find a way out of this thing. I think that also was probably a signal to the markets, you know, that they're trying to put out there of like, oh, we're trying to get out of this, guys. But this is what we have been talking about. This is the, this is the prediction we've been making from the beginning of this, that once you get into this escalatory cycle, it's not so easy as just putting up the Mission Accomplished banner and saying, we're going to walk away. So that's my read of what is going on here. And I think also, obviously they're putting out all kinds of bluster. You hear Trump there, oh, my God, they have no more Navy, they have no more Air Force, they have no more leaders, et cetera, et cetera. They're basically defeated. We've effectively declared victory here, even though we're gonna keep going. But this leak from his aide shows that behind the scenes, the picture is far less rosy. And there are great concerns both in terms of the economic fallout, the military damage and the political fallout.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Let me give you headlines from just the last 35 minutes. Al Jazeera Correspondent Explosion following sirens in northern Tel Aviv. Al AKBAR Correspondent, Lebanese army soldier killed in the conflict with Israel Abu Dhabi authorities. Fire broke out in the roe's industrial complex. And then another Lebanese army soldier was killed. And explosions in Doha, Qatar as well as the uae. So there you go. I mean, this is all just in the last 30, 45 minutes.

[Krystal Ball]

You ready for this one?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Before we even done the show, a

[Krystal Ball]

top Iranian Iranian security official tells Trump, be careful not to get eliminated yourself. So this is the kind of rhetoric that you know is coming from the Iranians. Does that sound like people who wanna back down? Their leader now is the dude whose mom, dad, wife and son you just murdered. So you think you're right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I missed a few relatives in there too.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, there's other. Yeah. Children, relatives, whatever. They, yeah, all mass murdered. You think he's in a conciliatory mood? You think he's ready to shake hands and say, okay, well let's, you know, let's go back to the negotiating table? I don't think so. And by the way, with this sort of rhetoric, which is extreme, can you really complain when you just assassinated their head of state and are openly threatening the new one? I mean, Trump got asked about. I don't think we pulled the clip, but Trump got asked, hey, are you thinking of killing the new supreme Leader? He's like, yeah, maybe if he doesn't comply. Yeah, we may do that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yep. He kept that open. And you can already see how that is working now. Again, we just wanna stick to show you the American press. Part of the reason we're so happy about the people who watch this show. So I'm watching this press conference yesterday. My wife's mad at me cause I'm not being able to help out with the baby. It's late at night, aka like 6pm And I'm like, okay, you know, let's get some good questions in here. And this is the shit that I hear. You hear some reporter out there who goes, wait, but if you do Taco, then aren't you letting down the Iranian people? Let's take a listen.

[Krystal Ball]

You promised the Iranian people you would help them, but it sounds like you're Willing to end this fight after your military objectives have wrapped up. Is that, Isn't that a betrayal of.

[Jay Shetty]

Will I help them? I'd like to if they can behave. But they've been very menacing. You know, they're great people. They have an amazing population. It's amazing. Smart, brilliant, energetic. They have a great. I'd love to help them, but they have to be in a system that allows them to be helped.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. So the only adversarial the journalism that we occasionally get is a reporter being like, but if you end it, wouldn't that stop helping the Iranian people? You want to see how we're helping out the Iranians? Iranian people. Let's go to a 3. Let's show some of this stuff from last night. By the way, the President, in the middle of his speech is talking about how, oh, if Iran doesn't capitulate, we're gonna go after their energy grid. Meanwhile, in the video that you all just saw, that was a strike in the middle of Tehran, where you see that massive flash which analysts are indicating is a power transformer, which caused a massive blackout across the entire city. I mean, look at this. It's out of a movie. It's like it's literally out of a movie in 4K video where all of us just get to see what is happening with some of these explosions. So that's apparently how we're helping the Iranian people, the great people of Iran who are just going to rally around the American flag and greet us and the Israelis as liberators. Meanwhile, by the way, as all indications go forward, a 5. Put this up here on the screen. More confirmation of everything that we warned you about yesterday. Capturing Iran's highly enriched uranium would require a large U.S. ground force, sources say. So the President continues to weigh that special operation which would go in and capture all of this nuclear material. And it would make sense. Right, Crystal? Cause that's an easy mission accomplished. Well, what did we tell you all yesterday? You can't just send in small team of Delta Force. They know you're coming. That's why the 82nd Airborne has currently been put on notice and is awaiting orders. And they can deploy anywhere in the world in like 72 hours. This is the exact reason is that to be able to do so it would require, yes, the Delta guys to go in it, but somebody's gotta protect them. So you're gonna need all these air assets. You need large ground force around. The Iranians know that you're coming. They've turned it into a complete death trap. If they have any IQ left in their leadership and in their military. So that's why it would require more. And then who knows how many people are gonna get killed in that type of mission? And it would be some sort of. I think that would be their way of saying mission accomplish is that they would knock it over. But it would have to end on the same note, if this is the way that it's gonna go down the way that Afghanistan did. And look, you know, you and I were supportive of the decision to get out of Afghanistan, but you can't deny it was an abject disaster, Right, and that yet 13 Marines were blown up by some ISIS bomber who were right there at the end. And it sunk a decent part of Trump's presidency. It looked like. Or, sorry, Biden's presidency. It looked like a quagmire and a disaster. And that's pretty much how this is looking right now, for the plan to have all of these forces on the ground.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and not only would it require all of these forces, I mean, to say it would be risky is really to undersell it. One of the analysts that they interviewed here said the logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive. Meaning that this isn't just risky. This is practically a death wish. You're talking about an operation that would require, you know, require air cover, require security, require these guys on the ground, and then you have to find where this material even is. They have some idea. The thought is that it's still buried, you know, at Isfahan, and that you'd have to be able to access it through these tunnels. I mean, and that's why I think they haven't gone forward with this yet, because it's just such an insanely risky, difficult mission. You're begging for scores of US Service members to either be captured or killed. So, you know, the quote, unquote, easy mission accomplished moment is not going to be easy whatsoever and could only further deepen and entrench this conflict, not to mention kill a bunch of Americans. So that is the landscape that they're ultimately looking at here. There's another development. I'm curious what you think of this saga. This is a little hard to parse. This comes from Barack Ravid. We could put this up on the screen. Trump apparently spoke with Putin. This is a six. Claiming that they discussed an end to the Iran war. In a phone call, the Kremlin says that the Russian president presented a proposal. You know, it was the Russians who originally, you know, leaked the fact that this phone call happened. And then clearly The White House gave some details to Barack Ravid, but this comes amidst reports that Russia has been helping Iran quite a bit with intelligence, which is crucial. I mean, we've been doing the same thing with Ukraine in terms of years. Yeah, yeah, for years. And, you know, certainly in the context of the. Of, you know, after Russia invaded Ukraine. And that has been incredibly important for the Ukrainians and their ability to sustain, you know, the lines, the battle lines that they've been able to sustain, their ability to target, including targeting within Russia, that has all been enabled by us. And Russia reportedly is doing the same for Iran, which is why, you know, there have been a bunch of reports, including from our friends at Dropsite, that the US Was shocked by some of the targeting, including the ability to know where service members were, which hotel rooms our service members were staying in and other personnel were staying in. So, you know, that's the backstory here. So to have this conversation happening right now is, you know, it's an interesting development.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, there was another piece of the press conference where Trump did not get specific, but he said, we'll be removing sanctions from some countries for oil. It's obviously, you know, it's right after a call with Putin. Now, listen, I'm not for the oil sanctions, so I don't care. But if you're one of those neocons who's been beating their chest for Ukraine and you want to cut off Russian oil, how much of an idiot do you look like right now?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, India already got their waiver.

[Saagar Enjeti]

India got their waiver from Russia, I

[Krystal Ball]

mean, which is insane that they need such thing, but whatever. I couldn't.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Couldn't agree.

[Krystal Ball]

Sort of pathetic on their bar side,

[Saagar Enjeti]

but all right, so let's put that to the side. So now Trump and Putin are in a long phone call, and Putin, I mean, what, you think he's not going to sweep? He's like, hey, you want to bring the price of oil down, I'll help you. Just take some of these sanctions off.

[Krystal Ball]

No worries.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's all good. We can even move towards a peace settlement in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kremlin war coffers are going up like this. If you follow, there's one of his advisors, Putin's advisors, he's on Twitter. You guys should really go and follow them. His name is Kirill Something, I forget. He's out. He's very open about it. He's like, thank you, United States, $100 per barrel. This is the best thing that's ever happened to us. Over at the Kremlin, we can use this to our advantage. You've just taken out a significant chunk of the global supply. He's like, oh, we're gonna use all this money to kill the Ukrainian Nazis. That's how they talk, right? So they're open. You just massively empowered the Russians.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Next Monday, our 2026 iHeart Podcast Awards are happening live at south by Southwest.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is the biggest night in podcasting.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry.

[Krystal Ball]

And the winner is.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Creativity, knowledge and passion will all be on full display.

[Joe Winterstein]

Thank you so much, iheartradio.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Thank you to all the other nominees.

[Joe Winterstein]

You guys are awesome.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Watch live next Monday at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific [e-mail] or the Veeps app.

[Joe Winterstein]

Hi, this is Joe Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter podcast where we talk about astrology, natal charts and how to step into your most vibrant life. And I just sat down with a mini driver.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The Irish traveler said when I was 16. You're going to have a terrible time with men.

[Joe Winterstein]

Actor, storyteller and unapologetic Aquarian visionary. Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives and I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are Misunderstood a Sun and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house spark her unconventional approach to partnership.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He really has taught me to embrace people sleeping in different rooms, on different houses, in different places, but just an

[Joe Winterstein]

embracing of the isness of it all. If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chart side view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity and real life, this episode is a must. Listen Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to your podcast.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm Clayton eckerd, and in 2022, I

[Saagar Enjeti]

was the lead of ABC's the Bachelor.

[Stephanie Young]

Unfortunately, it didn't go according to plan. He became the first Bachelor to ever have his final rose rejected. The Internet turned on him.

[Jay Shetty]

If I could press a button and

[Krystal Ball]

rewind it all, I would.

[Stephanie Young]

But what happened to Clayton after the show made even bigger headlines. It began as a one night stand and ended in a courtroom with Clayton at the center of a very strange paternity scandal.

[Krystal Ball]

The media is here. This case has gone viral.

[Jay Shetty]

The Dating Contract Agree to date me,

[Krystal Ball]

but I'm also suing you.

[Jay Shetty]

Please.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Search warrant this is unlike anything I've ever seen before.

[Stephanie Young]

I'm Stephanie Young. This Is Love Trapped this season, an epic battle of he said, she said and the search for accountability in a sea of lies.

[Krystal Ball]

I have done nothing except get pregnant by the Bachelor.

[Stephanie Young]

Listen to Love trapped on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Another huge piece of news about South Korea. I'll save that for our talk with Brandon. It's literally breaking right now. It's absolutely shocking. But the last thing I did want, of course, to note is about this strike on the girls school, the elementary school where Trump, again, I could not believe that this was actually happening. Where a reporter, I think it was Manu Raju over at cnn, he's pretty good reporter, and he's like, hey, so what happened with this Tomahawk missile? A video, and it shows hitting a girl school. And Trump goes, well, a lot of people have Tomahawk missiles, including Iran. I'm not joking. That's what he said. Let's take a listen.

[Jay Shetty]

There's a footage that shows that American missile strike and a Tomahawk missile likely destroyed that Iranian girls school.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So will the Americans, will the US Accept any responsibility?

[Jay Shetty]

Well, I haven't seen it. And I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, is sold and used by other countries. You know that. And whether it's Iran, who also has some Tomahawks, I wish they had more. But whether it's Iran or somebody else, the fact that a Tomahawk, a Tomahawk is very generic. It's sold to other countries, but that's being investigated right now.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Super generic missile. Only the United States, Britain and Australia have.

[Krystal Ball]

Even Israel does not have these things.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right? So, I mean, it's like, I mean, I'm not, I'm laughing, but I'm not laughing. I'm like, that's an insane thing to say. And actually, a reporter confronted him later on. It was great. Sean McCrea, shout out over at the New York Times, been a fan of his for a long time. And he was like, why are you the only person in your government saying that Iran has a Tomahawk missile? It's like, not even your own secretary of defense says that. And he goes, well, we're investigating it, and I'll live with whatever the report was. So even he walked it back in the immediate term.

[Krystal Ball]

McCree was like, you're saying that Iran somehow got a Tomahawk missile and bombed their own school. No one else is saying that. Why are you the only person that's saying that and then Trump backpedals to like, well, there's an investigation. I mean, just unbelievable bullshit that even Pete Hegseth is, you know, has enough shame that he won't go along with. So they default to like, oh, it's an investigation. And you know, this has been like, it should be. And it is a massive scandal. It should be an even bigger scandal. But I've seen even, you know, Laura Ingraham is like, there needs to be answers to this, like how did this happen? Because the other piece, you know, best case scenario, it's just a horrific mistake. But then you're like, why was it a double tap strike? Then how did that happen? And then the other question obviously is was this an AI generated target? You know, is that why this occurred? Because there was another instance where they bombed something called Police Park. Now this may have been the Israelis, cuz it's been largely the Israelis who have been bombing the, you know, the police stations, just trying to completely break down any sort of civil order and create the, you know, fomo, the conditions for this, you know, imaginary uprising. Same thing that they did in Gaza, by the way, when they were trying to get the people to rise up against Hamas. Obviously that never happened either. But in any case, in the context of bombing all these police stations, they bombed something called Police park, which is literally just a park. So what seemed to indicate potentially AI was just generating like anything that says police, let's just bomb that. There was no intensive human review to find out you're literally bombing like a playground and a soccer field or something like that. And so they go forward with that, like how did this happen? Because bombing in an elementary school where you have 168 girls who are now murdered and more than a dozen of their teachers who are now murdered on the very first day of the world of the war is a moral atrocity. And it also, you know, we're gonna show you some of the hardening of nationalist sentiment within the country. Like when you see your little children being murdered at the hands of this enemy government that attacked you, illegally attacked you out of the blue and killed your leader, et cetera. How do you think that's gonna make people feel? It's gonna make them much more committed to want to fight and die for the cause of their country. So just disgusting for Trump to lie. And honestly, it's so disrespectful to the people of the world and the people of this country to think we're just gonna buy this bullshit. You know, I'm sure his Cult members will. But the rest of the country is gonna look at this and be like that is utter and complete garbage.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You should be horrified by it. I also think that it's a massive disservice to the military. It's one of those where we had a culture originally. Again, you can say a lot of bad things about Iraq and Afghanistan, but generally there was a culture and I covered many of these. When you did something like this, you were gonna pay.

[Krystal Ball]

It was a scandal, there was gonna be a real investigation, there were likely to be some kind of consequences.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And the thing is, is that, and think about this too now. You've who probably fired the Tomahawk. They've gotta live with this forever. The only way that they should be able to live with it is to know that there's accountability up the chain of command. Cause again, the individual sailors or any of the other people who fire these, they don't know. They're just programming things. You know, from the Pentagon. Who in the Pentagon created the strike package? What was the process where the strike package happened? Remember My Lai? I mean we did a whole after action thing on the My Lai massacre or any of the atrocities, the Kunduz hospital. I read the whole report. You can google it, you can go and read it for yourself. You want to know the step by step process. It used to be one where we would take this stuff very seriously. Now everyone's oh, it was Iran. I mean again, the way that, you know that it wasn't because I even saw some cope, not even cope. But somebody said, you know, one alternative which is even more horrifying is that whenever we struck Iran previously that they were able to acquire a dud Tomahawk missile. And I was like, I'm pretty sure that that didn't happen. There would and, but if it did, that would be a as much of a scandal, you know, at the same time. But beyond like all of this.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it's so far fetched to be preposterous.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It has to be fired and create. You know, it's like it's not so simple as just like getting a Tomahawk missile. But the whole point around for our military culture is one where you don't want to encourage, cover up or you know, or make it so that you don't acknowledge these types of incidents. Because we know from our long history that that would only encourage and institutionalize a bad process. And that's not what we want. It's counter to our strategic aims, our tactical aims, obviously and also 168 people are 168 little girls are literally dead. It's insane. Not to mention what, seven U.S. soldiers. I just saw the news. You know, one of those guys who they're claiming, one of those guys you were claiming had a hell died of a medical incident. He's NYPD cop, father of six children, you know, coming back and in a coffin, like it's, it's the worst possible thing for all of these people who are involved. Last.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, I was just gonna say to your point about, look, obviously I have long term critiques of the U.S. military and the lack of care for civilians and all of that, but yeah, I mean, the first big video that WikiLeaks published was the Collateral Murder video which showed an Apache helicopter targeting journalists and civilians. And that was a massive scandal. And so, yeah, I think partly too, what has happened here is with all of us watching the Gaza genocide happen on our timelines, they do think that they can just get away with anything. And now you see the US directly copying the Israeli tactics of, okay, if we spark a little public outrage, we'll just say, we don't know, maybe it was them. Maybe first we'll try, oh, maybe it was actually the Iranians who bombed their own elementary school. See if people will buy that. And if they won't, then you say there'll be an investigation and then you just let the news cycle move on. And that's where we are.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. Last thing we wanted to show you was this report from inside of Iran. Dr. Mohammad Mehrand. Now again, he joined John Kirikow. We always give the caveat, he's very pro regime. He has sources though. So we try to show you all sides of the conflict. He says that Iran wants to wait until the midterms are over in order to keep this war going as long as possible. Let's take a listen.

[Jay Shetty]

I've been informed today by a significant political figure that Iran plans to continue this war until the midterms in the United States. And they will. They are planning to make the United force the United States to leave. And the more this war escalates, the darker it becomes for US allies across the region, for the Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf, this, if it continues for much longer, they won't survive. Remember, these are all dictatorships, family dictatorships. And the passport holders in these small entities are sometimes 10, 15% of the whole population. So in the emirates you have 1.4 million people who are Emirati, is the rest 10 million or so. I guess they're they're, they're there. But if the state collapses, those slaves and in indentured servants and the underclass they had, they may have something to say about the future of the Emirates or Qatar or Kuwait.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So you can see there the strategic calculus from inside. And here's the thing, you don't even really need to trust him. I think you just need to look at their public statements. We're not going to surrender. They're going after President Trump in retaliation for some sort of fire and fury. I also think everyone should really pay attention to all of our interviews with Dr. Trita Parsi because he was dead on before the war and he's been dead on since. And he's like, look, if they end the war right now, they're gonna be very weak. And they believe in their hearts that the 12 Day War ending was a disaster. Cuz it gave the Israelis and the US time to rearm before they hit them again. How could they possibly have any assurance that they won't get hit again after we bomb them twice? Twice that we've launched wars with them after, you know, and under the COVID of diplomacy, you would never trust that ever again. The only way to make any sort of trust is to inflict maximum damage for as long as possible. Try and destroy the global economy. Like, like that's their one chance at being able to survive. You've got the new Ayatollah who's, I mean, I can't even give you the list of how many relatives this guy is dead. I read a profile of him yesterday. We really don't know much about him. We only heard his voice once, apparently in public in 2024. But the only propaganda video of him released is cleaning his gun during the Iran Iraq war. Not great. Also somebody who had apparently long fostered relations with the IRGC and tried to put down or bolster some of the hardline factions during protests in 09. So you've got the ideological component, the fact that his father has been killed, his wife, his daughter, or sorry, his son, one of his children, who was killed in this strike. And you're like, man, we're dealing with somebody. If anything, this is the guy who's gonna repeal a fatwa on nuclear weapons. You could understand from a psychological, personal perspective and an ideological. You fuse those two things together, what would you do?

[Krystal Ball]

And a tactical perspective this is. And from their own strategic perspective, they should have pursued a nuke that would have been a deterrent. I mean, so you know, and there have been many hardliners who have, you know, pushed in that direction, but it has not happened, I think predominantly because of the fatwa that was issued by the now dead ayatollah. And so, yeah, you could easily see and think of the insanity of that. Think of the insanity of that. So one of the many stated goals of this whole war is to prevent them from getting. From acquiring a nuclear weapon. And there is a very strong possibility you have just made it more likely that they will pursue a nuclear weapon, not less. Last thing to your point about Trita Parsi, I just wanted to read his analysis. He posted about the Trump press conference, which was, as we said, all over the place. He said, trump's all over the place. Presser appears to have had two key objectives. A, calm the markets by signaling the conflict may soon be over because it had been so, quote, unquote, successful, and B, prepare the ground for Trump. Ending the war through a unilateral declaration of victory, though ending a war that never should have started in the first place, rather than fighting endlessly in the pursuit of an illusory victory, as the US did in Afghanistan, is the right move. It will not be as easy as Trump appears to think. Tehran also has a vote, and there is little to suggest that it will agree that the war is over. And then he goes on to talk more about the Iranian perspective. But that is really the bottom line here. Even if Trump wants to taco, and there are some indications here that he and his advisors are trying to look for a way to taco, which would be great even if he does, that he may be already in a trap. The Iranians do not seem to be in any mood to back down. So that is the lay of the land as of today. It is, you know, looks like we are in an escalation trap. Looks like this thing is only expanding, only going to get more deadly, only going to grind on further into, you know, what may end up being sort of war of attrition, where, you know, that's why we're gonna talk to Brandon Weicker later on. You know, what lasts longer? Our interceptors or their drones, which they're able, by the way, to continuously manufacture. Which one is willing to bear more pain? The Iranians, for whom this is literally existential in terms of both their lives and their country, or the Americans who do not even want this war and are not interested in paying any sort of price for it. I think most Americans probably sort of like the idea of, oh, the Iranians are bad, like, let's overthrow their regime, but they do not support this and they're not willing to bear much of any cost in order to accomplish the ever shifting goals articulated by the Trump regime.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yep, that's right.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Next Monday, our 2026 iHeart Podcast Awards are happening live at south by Southwest.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is the biggest night in podcasting.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry.

[Krystal Ball]

And the winner is.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Creativity, Knowledge and Passion will all be on full display.

[Joe Winterstein]

Thank you so much iheartradio. Thank you to all the other nominees. You guys are awesome.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Watch Live next Monday at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific [e-mail] or the Veeps app.

[Joe Winterstein]

Hi, this is Joe Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter Podcast where we talk about astrology, natal charts and how to step into your most vibrant life life and I just sat down with a

[Saagar Enjeti]

mini driver, the Irish traveler said when I was 16. You're going to have a terrible time with men.

[Joe Winterstein]

Actor, storyteller and unapologetic Aquarian visionary. Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives and I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are Misunderstood a Sun and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house Spark her uncle unconventional approach to partnership.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He really has taught me to embrace people sleeping in different rooms on different houses in different places, but just an

[Joe Winterstein]

embracing of the isness of it all. If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chart side view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity and real life, this episode is a must. Listen Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to your podcast.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm Clayton ECKERD and in 2022 I

[Saagar Enjeti]

was the lead of ABC's the Bachelor.

[Stephanie Young]

Unfortunately, it didn't go according to plan. He became the first Bachelor to ever have his final rose rejected. The Internet turned on him.

[Jay Shetty]

If I could press a button and

[Krystal Ball]

rewind it all, I would.

[Stephanie Young]

But what happened to Clayton after the show made even bigger headlines. It began as a one night stand and ended in a courtroom with Clayton at the center of a very strange paternity scandal.

[Krystal Ball]

The media is here. This case has gone viral.

[Jay Shetty]

The Dating Contract Agree to date me,

[Krystal Ball]

but I'm also suing you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Police Search Warrant this is unlike anything I've ever seen before.

[Stephanie Young]

I'm Stephanie Young. This is Love Trapped this season, an epic battle of he said, she said and the search for accountability in a sea of lies.

[Krystal Ball]

I have done nothing except get pregnant by the Bachelor.

[Stephanie Young]

Listen to Love trapped on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Let's move on to Israel.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, so we've got, you know, sort of a parallel story here going on from the Israelis where we just talked about how some of Trump's aides are leaking to the press. Like, oh, we're trying to figure out how to get out of this thing. Well, the Israelis are apparently leaking to David Ignatius, who's known to be very like, tied in with the deep state over at the Washington Post that they are also concerned. So this is worth taking note of with interest. Put this up on the screen. So the headline is, Israeli officials are growing concerned a bombing campaign nearing its military goals in Iran leaves the hardest questions unanswered. A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating open ended attack on Iran and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy. Talk of an endgame is early and a decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with President Donald Trump. That's not what he said, by the way, in any case, who continues to seek all out victory. But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war discussed alternatives to Trump's call for unconditional surrender. Official requested anonymity. So that is kind of the line coming out from these Israeli officials is, look, our bases are taking, you know, direct hits. We're going to talk later about the radars that have been damaged. You know, our Gulf allies are really unhappy in a variety of ways. We'll talk about that as well. But the Israelis are taking active fire in their country and we really don't have a clear view of just how much damage has been done. But they have to be looking at the same interceptor math that we've been talking about in the context of this war, that we talked about in the context of the 12 day war and going, I'm not sure how much we are able or willing to sustain. So they may be reportedly, after the 12 day war, it was really the Israelis who were the ones who said, let's call this quits for now. Let's come to some sort of a ceasefire. Let's end these hostilities for now over precisely some of these same concerns. And I think Sager, they would probably be happy adopting effectively like a mow the lawn strategy, like what they've done in Gaza for years and years where you go in, destabilize, blow a bunch of shit up, make it impossible for the country of Iran to grow and thrive and succeed, create a bunch of chaos and then once the price gets too much to bear for you or public sentiment starts to turn, global sentiment, I should be clear, the Israeli public is very much on board with this war. But once global sentiment starts to turn, okay, then we'll stop for now and then we'll go back in at a future time. That seems to be what they're aiming for. But of course this is subject to the same problem that the Trumpian logic of if Trump wants to taco is subject to as well, which is that there is another party to this. And the Iranians seem to have learned a lesson from the 12 Day War. They seem to regret having agreed to that ceasefire then, which just allowed the Israelis and the Americans to rebuild and re equip so that they could come back in with an even more aggressive illegal war.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, and you know what I see in terms of the Israeli strategy is more of an acknowledgement of the widening of the conflict where I really do. It does seem to me that the Israelis in the US actually believed a lot of their own BS that they wouldn't strike elements of the Gulf. They just thought that this is a nightmare scenario. Same with the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. It was one of those like tail end risks, but not something that was really from what they were thinking would happen. I mean, Ignatius even writes that the bombing campaign was nearing the point of achieving its military objectives. But what they find is that of course we wish to topple the regime. But that's not the only end game. This is the Israeli. Once the major military targets have been eliminated, Israel would have achieved its goal. Iran won't surrender, but it can send messages to accept a ceasefire within US conditions. But what that ignores is how the Iranians are going to respond. Number one, and they've already gone for the max strategy. But two, I think what they're also saying from the Israeli perspective is they're like, oh man, now we're tied at the hip here with the United States, with Trump, we're tied at the hip obviously with them. They wanna declare this some sort of regime change, but they're also learning, as we continue to see, there's strikes all over Israel. I mean, look, the war has already widened. Israeli soldiers have even been killed. Now with Hezbollah, they're having to expand into Lebanon. And what they like, as you said, is having the boogeyman exist. But if they actually go forward, then what are they gonna do? They can't rile up their whole population every few years and say, oh, well, we have to go bomb them because of their nuclear threat. If they actually did replace the regime, then they would have to. First of all, we'd have to live with their consequences. And people could see how much of a nightmare that it's all become. But I think more than anything, this is probably more about munitions math, and it's about defense readiness and the reality of a long war and what it's all gonna look like.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, well, and there were also some indications before Trump kicked off this war that it was the Israelis. Again, this was some reporting that came out. You know, Netanyahu come to visit Trump in December, and it looks like that's when they made the decision like, okay, we're gonna go to war. And all the. In my opinion, all the negotiations were totally fake, as evidenced by the. That fact that they sent two guys who really didn't know what they were talking about in order to lead these alleged negotiations. And of course, while you're in the midst of these negotiations and the Iranians have just given up more concessions than they have ever have, that's the moment when you choose to actually start the war. But in any case, there was reporting that it was actually the Israelis that were like, wait, wait, wait, we're not ready to start yet. And the US Moved even more firepower into the region, moved another carrier strike group into the region. And so the alleged diplomacy was to kind of run out the clock Iraq, so that the war could start at a time when we would be somewhat more prepared. Just imagine how disastrous this would have been if it started even earlier, when we were even less prepared, given what a disaster it already is. So, yeah, I mean, the Israelis are the ones taking the direct hits in their country. And so they've now realized that. I don't know if they ever believe. They probably didn't. That if they decapitated the regime that the whole thing would collapse. But once that has not come to fruition, there's no signs that you're going to have some sort of regime change. The Kurds are like, we're not getting involved here. You're not looking at civil war conditions at this point. Then the next best option for Israel is to say, okay, well, we blew up a bunch of shit. Iran has paid a price. We'll back off for now, and then we'll come back later, we'll do the same thing. We got Trump in office for a few more years. We can later on, we'll talk him into this again. We'll will once again threaten to strike Iran if he doesn't. We'll once again talk about how they're rebuilding their nuclear program. By the way, that might be true now given the logic that we have created. It gives them every incentive to go in that direction. So I think that's some of the calculus there. At the same time, we wanted to take a look at our friend Lindsey Graham, who we covered yesterday reporting about. We already knew he was very influential in terms of pushing for this war. This is a near lifelong dream at this point. There is no one happier, I think, on the plan right now than this bloodthirsty ghoul. And so he was, you know, making the rounds over on Fox News yesterday, just talking about how much he is committed to Israel, how much he loves Israel, etc. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All the anti Semites to all the isolationists. I don't forget it. I'm not with you. I'm with Israel. I will be with Israel to our dying day. They're the best ally we could hope for. So we have a commander in chief and President Trump who I think is Ronald Reagan plus plus plus God bless Israel. We should move all our stuff to Israel. Thank you.

[Krystal Ball]

God bless Israel. Should move all our stuff to Israel. I'll be with Israel to my dying day. I mean, this is a United States senator, him and Ted Cruz both out there just openly admitting that this is their number one priority. Calling Trump Ronald Reagan plus is also really something. And it's important to play these comments and understand this man's mindset because he has been very influential. He had a plan to push Trump in this direction. Again, Trump's a big boy. This is his fault ultimately. And the reporting is that he ended up being pretty enthusiastic about going in this direction. But Lindsey Graham has been there making the case routinely, religiously for years now at this point. And so in a lot of ways, he is driving this trainer. At least he is incredibly important in terms of why we ended up in this whole debate.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's funny magazine like President Trump, please keep Lindsey Graham off the air. He's hurting your case. I'm like, no, no, no, no, no. He's the only fucker who's telling us all the truth, okay? He said he's in here with a blood relationship where they've got some like Angelina Jolie, Billy Bob Thornton wearing each other's blood around their necks like some satanic ritual that's going on between the two of them. I don't, you know, we'll only speculate, but that's what's really going on with old Lindsay and Israel. But that's the truth. You know, yesterday Laura Ingraham even had Ted Cruz on her show. And she's like, you don't think it's a little weird that Lindsey Graham is going over to Israel and coordinating with their intelligence agencies on how to pressure the President? Well, he loves America. That's what Ted Cruz goes, he loves America. No, he doesn't. He even said at one point in the interview, he's like, I'm going back to South Carolina to convince them to send their sons and daughters to the Mideast.

[Krystal Ball]

I am just like, oh my God, good luck.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And look, people of South Carolina, at this point, you guys had plenty of chances. I don't know what the hell you guys are doing down there, but, you know, the real point that remains is that we are in some suicidal blood pact with this country. A significant part of our electorate is either compromised or ideological. For him, I do think it's ideological 100% because he's been saying from column

[Krystal Ball]

a little from column B. Yeah, I don't know.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, who knows, right? But I mean, he's been saying it for 20, 30 years, like this is his entire worldview. But it does demonstrate the, you know, what, what we're all into. And the Israelis may say to David Ignatius that they're a little worried, but their calculus is always escalate, escalate, escalate, escalate. And you can also see how in the Gulf, we are dramatically losing a lot of our allies. Like, let's go and put to the next one, please, B3, good example. So you have the UAE, which says that the Emirates reaffirms their commitment not to allow their airspace, territory waters to be used for any military actions against Iran. Now that's not even true. Right, because you can already see that there has obviously been a lot of launchers and other things, who knows, even with their own base. But what they're trying to do is signal to Iran that they have nothing to do with this. You've also had multiple instances now where the UAE is upset with Israel because they're saying, oh, hey, Israelis, stop trying to leak that we are responsible for some attack on a desalination platform plant. And even the Iranians are responding. Recently the Pentagon posted a picture of some missile batteries that were in the desert and the Iranian foreign minister was like, thank you for confirming that you have these weapons on their soil, which is the exact reason that we are striking you. But the point.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, Trump and his presser yesterday said that Gulf states had launched attacks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right? I mean, who knows if that's true or not? Probably true, if you ask me. But let's go to the next part because this is very interesting. This was passed around everywhere. I referenced it a little bit in our show is this UAE billionaire who has been accusing the US of dragging the region into the war and rejecting calls from the Gulf states to join. He gave this long missive, I'm sure you saw it criticized Trump, who authorized you to drag our region into war. And as I explained yesterday, there's no such thing as like an independent billionaire in these countries. Like, you only speak and you do it twice. Especially if the government is like, yeah, man, go ahead. All of your, you know, it's like China, like, business is part of the state. That's literally how they wield all of their power. It's all inter, it's intertwined for their own national interests. He is giving, you know, these long, like Bill Ackman style essays about how bad America's decision is, how dangerous it is, how they've weakened their country, how they have to question their alliances, how they're not going to join, you know, the Gulf, the rest of the Gulf states in being dragged in. It's a last. All they want is for this conflict to end. And you can see why. I mean, look at this map. Let's go to the next one, guys, just to show you all. I mean, look at, I mean, to describe this as not a regional, global war at this point is preposterous. If you're watching our show, look at the arrows of all of the different countries that have either been attacked or been backed by, or, sorry, attacked by, by the United States, Israel, whether they've been bombed, whether Iran has bombed them, the type of rockets, the number of strikes, and we're talking about thousands at this point, of munitions that have all crossed all of these different borders. Just in the span of what, like 10 days that we've gone now so far. I believe that the number is now 20 different countries that are now directly or indirectly involved in this conflict. It's completely, I mean, it's gone literally global. Cyprus, obviously the French, the entire French navy is on its way right now down to the Middle East. It's literally a catastrophe. And it's only been 10 days.

[Krystal Ball]

It's crazy. Well, and to Go back to our friend Lindsey Graham. I don't know who this man thinks he is, but he's out there directly like threatening Saudi Arabia and offering them certain defense agreements if they go along and fully participate in the bombing campaign. This is B2. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Finally, to my friends in Saudi Arabia, I've been your biggest champion. I think the Crown Prince has taken Saudi Arabia in a completely different direction in a good way. But here's what I want to say to Saudi Arabia tonight. I'm willing to do a mutual defense agreement with your country to give you protection in perpetuity under the agreement I've been pushing and I hope we can continue to talk about. If you're attacked by Iran, we would go to war for you.

[Krystal Ball]

Who are you?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Who said that?

[Krystal Ball]

You're not, you're not the President, you're not in the cabinet, you're not the Secretary of War, you're not the Secretary of State. You're now freelancing, offering defense agreements to various countries. And, and I think the Saudi piece though is really important. I understand why he's so upset about it because there was some reporting that Saudi was low key or high key, interested in this war, supportive of this war. I don't know whether that's true or not. The Saudis denied it. It could have been sort of a planted story. But in any case, they have a long term rivalry with Iran. So they also stand to benefit if Iran, and if the Iranian government is weakened. But at the same respect, they are feeling very exposed. They don't want their country to continue to be attacked. And so even Saudi Arabia, which of course has been a very solid longtime ally of the US probably one of our biggest allies in the region, our biggest outside of Israel, if they're even doing the calculus of like, I don't know if we really want to be involved with this. That shows you the thinking here. And for Iran, you know, winning this war for Iran just means survival, right? That's the ultimate goal is just, just surviving the onslaught and being able to continue with this particular governmental regime. That's what winning looks like. But the bigger aspirational goal would be to push the US out of some of these countries in the region. And it seems far fetched at this point. But if you're Saudi, if you're UAE in particular, and you're looking at the fact that you thought you were getting protection from the US and instead it's made you a target, well, that is going to change your Calculus that is going to change how you're thinking about your relationship with this country and what you're getting out of it. There was. That wasn't a Saudi analyst that went on Al Jazeera and was like, they're not protecting us, they're protecting the Israelis. That's their number one priority. And again, that wouldn't have been said if it was not sort of permitted in, greenlit it by the government. So they're feeling very exposed. They're begging to be able to buy more interceptors. We're, like, not in. We've like ghosted them. Not answering their phone calls. Sorry, we don't have any available to sell you. And if we did, we would prioritize Israel over you. And they are feeling like we, instead of getting protection from the U.S. we have been destroyed. And for, you know, for UAE, Dubai, these places are not going to recover. All these, these influencers who brought in all these wealthy expats, they are all fleeing, leaving their dogs behind, by the way, which is disgusting to, you know, tying them to, just like dropping them off at shelters that are overfill and tying them to lampposts and whatever and just abandoning them there. But in any case, they're all fleeing, the brand damage that Dubai and these other locales are sustaining is going to be irreparable. I mean, you're talking about generations before that goes back to the image that it had previously. So, yeah, I understand why he's upset because this is not the reaction that he wanted from these Gulf states as they recalculate exactly what they're doing with their US Defense partnerships.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It is scary. One of the things I've been holding this. We're about to talk about this with Brandon Weickert, but just to give you some more global picture, just this morning, South Korea and the United States confirming that significant parts of their thaad batteries, those interceptors, will be taken from the South Korean peninsula for the Middle east, in addition to Patriot interceptors all across the Indo Pacific region. So we have burned through 5.6 billion in munitions in two days. The first two days of the war. $5.6 billion. The munitions disaster, we will never know the full picture because they're just going to classify it to hell. Look at the actions. When you start pulling stuff out of South Korea, that means you've burned through the stockpile to the point where you think it's going to be critical and you're going to have to use it one more week. It's been only been 10 days and we already have to do this.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

How are we going to. We're going to fight a war with China. I mean, that's the, that's the, like the joke of this entire thing.

[Krystal Ball]

Forget about it. I mean, and that also underscores that we've been talking about, okay, roughly a billion dollars a day to fund this.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's not even true.

[Krystal Ball]

Definitely.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What is that?

[Krystal Ball]

If you're talking about just 5.6 billion in just munitions? I mean, God only knows what the

[Saagar Enjeti]

oil cost during the war in Afghanistan. The estimate was that for every soldier downrange, it was $1 million in order to keep them. And we had 100,000 or some people. So you can do the math on how that works out. But it is such a nightmare for defense readiness for all of these allies. This is going to seriously rewrite the entire way. A lot of countries, countries look at us. And it was all preventable. That's the craziest part about it.

[Krystal Ball]

It was all by choice, literally preventable.

[Saagar Enjeti]

All right, let's get to Iran.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Next Monday, our 2026 iHeart Podcast Awards are happening live at south by Southwest.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is the biggest night in podcasting.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry.

[Krystal Ball]

And the winner is.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Creativity, knowledge and passion will all be on full display.

[Joe Winterstein]

Thank you so much, iheartradio.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Thank you to all the other nominees.

[Joe Winterstein]

You guys are awesome.

[iHeart Podcast Announcer]

Watch live next Monday at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific [e-mail] or the Veeps app.

[Joe Winterstein]

Hi, this is Jo Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter podcast where we talk about astrology, natal charts and how to step into your most vibrant life. And I just sat down with mini

[Saagar Enjeti]

driver, the Irish traveler said when I was 16, you're gonna have a terrible time with men.

[Joe Winterstein]

Actor, storyteller and unapologetic Aquarian visionary. Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives. And I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are Misunderstood a son and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house Spark her unconventional approach to partnership.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He really has taught me to embrace people's sleeping in different rooms, on different houses, in different places, but just an

[Joe Winterstein]

embracing of the isness of it all. If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chart side view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity and real life, this episode is a must. Listen. Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcast.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm Clayton eckerd, and in 2022, I

[Saagar Enjeti]

was the lead of ABC's the Bachelor.

[Stephanie Young]

Unfortunately, it didn't go according to plan. He became the first bachelor to ever have his final rose rejected. The Internet turned on him.

[Jay Shetty]

If I could press a button and

[Krystal Ball]

rewind it all, I would.

[Stephanie Young]

But what happened to Clayton? After the show made even bigger headlines. It began as a one night stand and ended in a courtroom with Clayton at the center of a very strange paternity scam scandal.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The media is here.

[Krystal Ball]

This case has gone viral.

[Jay Shetty]

The dating contract.

[Krystal Ball]

Agree to date me, but I'm also suing you.

[Jay Shetty]

Please.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Search warrant. This is unlike anything I've ever seen before.

[Stephanie Young]

I'm Stephanie Young. This is Love Trapped this season, an epic battle of he said, she said and the search for accountability in a sea of lies.

[Krystal Ball]

I have done nothing except get pregnant

[Saagar Enjeti]

by like a bachelor.

[Stephanie Young]

Listen to Love trapped on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, so we've covered the Americans, cover the Israelis. Let's talk about how the Iranians are thinking about this war right now. CNN has a reporter on the ground who was able to interview a top foreign policy advisor to the ayatollah about their war aims and how they're looking at things at this point.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Point.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's take a listen to that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The United States says it's drastically degraded the Iranian military, the capabilities as far as missiles is concerned, drones is concerned. How much longer can you do this?

[Jay Shetty]

That is one of the false narratives that the United States government is producing. Iranian military is quite strong, as you see, because they have the motivation, they have the arms that they need, which are produced in Iran. As a matter of fact, we are not dependent on any other country for weapons and arms.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So your side is ready for a long war if the United States and Israel choose that. Do you consider this an existential threat to the Islamic Republic?

[Jay Shetty]

It is an extension threat to the Islamic Republic and therefore we have to stay with full might, as we are doing now.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Is your side seeking or will you seek a ceasefire with the United States at this point in time and with Israel?

[Jay Shetty]

I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore because Donald Trump had been deceiving others and not keeping with his promises. And we experienced it in two times of negotiations that while we were engaged

[Krystal Ball]

in negotiation, I mean, that last part there is just incontrovertible fact that we have repeatedly used the promise of diplomacy as A ruse and a cover to actually commit acts of war. So, you know, it's not surprising that's the way they're thinking about it. And of course, the Iranians, you know, they want to project strength, they want to project stability. That is all in their interest. And of course, you should take any government official, whether it's ours, the Israeli Israelis or the Iranians with a million grains of salt. But I think that the logic is pretty straightforward. They just need to survive. They understand they cannot allow Israel and the US to walk away now having sustained some blow, but nothing really significant. You know, American consumers are not super feeling the pain at the pump quite yet. The markets are volatile, but they're just sort of roiling right now. You haven't had a huge collapse. You have not had enough pain to deter either the US Or America from doing this. Sorry, the US or Israel, they're one in the same at this point, I guess, from doing the same thing again. And so I believe them when they say, look, we are locked in for a long war. This is what we are planning. And so listen, they have surely sustained significant blows, right? I think the Navy has been significantly degraded. I think we have hit a lot of the visible missile launching sites. I think we've all seen the images of Tehran, these apocalyptic images, you know, effectively carpet bombing the number of sites, thousands of targets hit, et cetera. So I'm not saying they haven't been hit hard, but they are fighting an asymmetric war where what we have to do is. I mean, the goals are shifting on a daily basis. We got a new list of supposed goals this morning in this press conference. But what we have to do requires extraordinary acts, including very likely putting ground troops inside of Iran in order to grab the loose nuclear material or foment some sort of regime change or whatever. And all they have to do is hold on and make the price unbearably high for us and for the Israelis,

[Saagar Enjeti]

yeah, it's a fight of survival versus a fight basically of choice, of convenience. It's like a side quest, basically.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

At this point, I mean, and that's why Trump's legacy. Trump's legacy.

[Krystal Ball]

See, Israel's existentialism, biblical fantasies.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Israel's like Third Temple fantasies, but for us, I mean, for me, seven killed too many for them. They've lost over a thousand people. They're barely even blinking an eye. I mean, we remember, if you roll the tape, we were like, look, guys, they are prepared to take 90% casualties at the top. They are Ready to fight to the death. I do not think that we understand. We haven't fought an enemy like that well actually recently with the Taliban, but like really at a large industrial scale since Vietnam, to like really understand what it means. Remember, we won the tactical war in Vietnam. Every time I make the joke about Mac V Tehran, the joke is that it's called Military Assistance Command Vietnam. And this what they would do in the Vietnam wars, they'd be like, Today we killed 250 VC in the firm. And we dropped X amount of bombs, the same amount of bombs that we dropped on Dresden some 20 years ago. And America was like, wow. Yeah, look, we killed 250. See, statistics are all fake. But the point was like, did it work? No. I mean, we ended up losing the war in Vietnam. We dropped X amount of munitions in Operation Rolling Thunder, then the entire Second World War. And everyone was like, wow, look at us taking the fight to North Vietnam. And the North Vietnamese were like, we don't care. We'll take a million casualties and we're just gonna keep fighting. They're like, this is a war of colonialism to the death. And whatever it takes, no matter what, we will outlast you until our d, you know, their leader literally died. And they kept the war going forever. They won that war. That's all you have to do. Survive, survive. And ultimately that's how you're able to beat, you know, the empire. Same with Afghanistan. Not just us, Soviet Union. How did the Soviet Union. I wouldn't say it broke their back, but it really hurt them with their 10 year long engagement. They blew the shit out of that country. And you know, if you think Israel is unrestrained. The Soviets fought that way in Afghanistan. They didn't care at all. They murdered women and children. Bombing campaigns, helicopter raids. Brutal, brutal stuff. They still lost, right? And that was just the Taliban, that was just generic mujahideen funded by the United States. So you can see the storybook for all of this over the years, which is why, for them, that's another thing. Why do we not give credit to our enemies? Like, we look at them as barbarian idiots or one of the all the stuff. I grew up in the mid 2000s hearing about these people. The current Ayatollah, he speaks fluent English, if you're wondering. Do you hear that guy too? These people are very well educated. They're not, you know, stupid. They've studied us for a long time. 47 years that we're always talking about. Well, that's 47 years of us studying them. And 47 years of them studying us. These are highly educated people who have thought a lot about their collective defense. Now listen, I'm not gonna defend every decision they make. I think they made a lot of screw up along the way. But we are where we are. Like, you have to respect your enemy and the people who you are fighting. And it is very clear after only 10 days that this has not gone the way that we thought it would and that they have operated not just militarily but strategically. Their ability to draw the whole region into a conflict, to plunge things into global chaos was exactly what you would do. If you're trying to fight asymmetric war, even the drone program, you have to give credit where it's due. They studied the environment and they go, okay, we don't have a lot of money. What's their, you know, critical, where can we strike them in an asymmetric fashion? Billion dollar thaad system. Ah, we'll create these drones and then we'll battle test them in Ukraine with our Russian friends and we'll get years and years of targeting data and see how they can get shot down and refine the process and all that. I mean that's a smart military strategy. That's what you do when you're expecting a conflict, conflict with the West. And obviously that has been the number one problem that we face now on the battlefield. So you have to respect these people because if you don't, you're gonna fall into some propaganda effort or whatever and that's how you end up with tons of casualties.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and I do wanna emphasize the military top brass knew that this would be a problem. Right. They understood that there were incredible vulnerabilities here for the US they at least had some sense seemingly. I mean they were leaking to a number of newspapers exactly some of the problems that we have in fact encountered. But I think because you have Trump who has this messianic view of himself and who feels like all the experts told me that I couldn't do X and Y and Z and I did it anyway and I was proven right, he just was not. He did not wanna hear it and he wouldn't hear it. He thought, oh well, I had all these people warning that it'd be a disaster in Venezuela and it went so well and all these people war, all these panicans warning before the 12 day war in Iran and look at what a glorious success that was and how I got to have my mission accomplished moment. So I'm just gonna go back in and by the way, my friend Bibi is telling me that this is gonna go great, so we're gonna do it all over again. And I think, to your point, the internal view of the Iranians is that they are not stupid, that they are an adversary that is capable of learning and strategic thought, et cetera. What is sold to the American people is that they're just crazy, you know, theocratic mad men. And so they're totally irrational and you can't deal with them. And I think Trump, because he's a stupid and uneducated person, basically bought the public story about what the Iranian government was, and again, I'm sure is being fed that by Lindsey Graham and by Bibi Netanyahu, et cetera. And so he comes in like a bull in a china shop and now has found himself in a trap that he cannot figure out how to get out of it. And, you know, one of I think the probably tactical mistakes from the Americans and the Israelis was assassinating the Ayatollah. We could put C2 up on the screen. There were gigantic celebrations in the street in Tehran celebrating the, you know, the naming of the new ayatollah, of course, the son of the previous ayatollah. And so quite contrary to the idea that there was gonna be some uprising against the government and that this government would fall. In fact, you've had the predictable opposite impact, which is a hardening of nationalist sentiment. Now, that doesn't mean there aren't still plenty of people in Iran who are not happy with the Islamic theocratic regime, who would like ultimately some sort of different form of government. But right now, you and your family and your country are under attack. Of course there's going to be a rally around the flag effect. Of course that is gonna happen. And that's much more of what we're seeing at least manifesting visibly the streets is a hardening and a support for the existing government. Trump floated, hey, maybe we'll assassinate this new guy as well if he doesn't play ball with us, which of course he's not going to. They could well do that. They could well accomplish that. You think that that's gonna be the end of this particular Iranian regime? No, of course not. They would just appoint a new one. And, you know, this is the case because you see how they operated with Hamas. The number of times that they killed all the senior leadership, whether they were political leadership or milit military leadership. Did that destroy Hamas? No. And the Iranians are much better funded and are much more sort of deeply entrenched, frankly, than Hamas is. You can see with Hezbollah as well. They thought Hezbollah was dead and gone. I think the Israeli public thought basically Hezbollah after the whole beeper attack, that that was it, end of story. Hezbollah is able to fight back against the Israeli incursion into Lebanon right now. And the Israelis, the IDF on the ground are sustaining some significant blood blows at the hands of Hezbollah right now. So were they set back? Absolutely. Was there a time period where they were extremely weakened? Absolutely. Are they as strong as they were before? Probably not. Are they still able to exist as a coherent organization and strike some blows against you? Yeah, absolutely. And the Iranians are much better equipped to sustain these blows than either of those organizations.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's all very, very true. Last thing I think C4, let's put this up there on the screen from Dropsite the they spoke with Iranian officials, senior official there saying it is unlikely Iran would accept any temporary deal that leaves open the possibility that another war could be launched in the near future. Iran will not accept any ceasefire at this stage because what is pursuing is not a mere end to hostilities which can and will be easily broken by Israel and the US but a deterrence restoring outcome that creates the conditions for lasting, enforceable settlement. The strategic logic is that holding out national despite the cost is the precondition for an agreement that actually holds. So look, I mean we boxed them in to a single corner and when you do that, you can't. You just have to sit there and take the pain for as long as possible and hope that the other side gives out. And I don't think it's coming.

[Krystal Ball]

And they want to give us a taste of our own medicine in terms of the economic warfare that we've been waging against them for decades. They know that they have control over this incredibly important strategic choke point. Now this is going to be very damaging to their economy as well. But again, for them, it's existential. For us, we don't even want to be doing this. So yeah, they're like, look, $200 a barrel per oil. You want that? Let's keep going, keep doing. Let's continue in this direction because we are going to make you pay. And I just will remind that we played earlier that Saad of a professor who has some contacts within the Iranian government who was based in Tehran said saying we want to be in this at least until the midterms. They want there to be an economic price, devastating economic price that all of us, by the way, all of you out there are going to pay and the entire world frankly, is going to pay. They want there to be a devastating economic price and a devastating political price for this president and his party. So that's what they're committed to.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that's right. All right, let's get to Brandon Weickert. He's a great military analyst. He's gonna break down every everything that's happening with Iran. Let's get to it.

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