← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/10/26: US Scrambles On Depleting Munitions, Trump Begs Ships To Cross Strait Of Hormuz, Epstein Prison Guard Cash Deposit
00:47:48
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human.
- [00:05]
Saagar Enjeti
Next Monday, our 2026 iHeart podcast awards are happening live at south by Southwest. This is the biggest night in podcasting. We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry.
- [00:18]
Krystal Ball
And the winner is.
- [00:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Creativity, knowledge and Passion will all be on full display.
- [00:24]
Krystal Ball
Thank you so much iheartradio.
- [00:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you to all the other nominees.
- [00:28]
Krystal Ball
You guys are awesome.
- [00:28]
Saagar Enjeti
Watch live next Monday at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific free@veeps.com or the Veeps app. Aigo Wodom is your host for the
- [00:37]
Krystal Ball
2026 iHeart Podcast Awards live at south by Southwest.
- [00:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Hello?
- [00:42]
Brandon Weichert
Is anybody there?
- [00:42]
Saagar Enjeti
Raised by a single mom, Aego may have a few father related issues. Are we supposed to talk about your dad? Her podcast, thanks dad is full of
- [00:50]
Krystal Ball
funny, heartfelt conversations with actors including fellow
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Saagar Enjeti
SNL alums, comedians, musicians and more about
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Krystal Ball
life and their wonderfully complicated relationships with their fathers.
- [00:59]
Saagar Enjeti
I think and hope that's a good thing.
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Krystal Ball
Get to know Aygo follow Thanks dad
- [01:02]
Saagar Enjeti
with aygowodom and start listen on the
- [01:04]
Krystal Ball
free iHeartRadio app today.
- [01:06]
Saagar Enjeti
Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast. My latest episode is with Hilary Duff,
- [01:11]
Brandon Weichert
singer, actress and multi platinum artist.
- [01:15]
Krystal Ball
You desire in family like this picture and that's not reality. My sister and I don't speak. It's definitely a very painful part of my life and I hope it's not forever, but it's for right now.
- [01:29]
Saagar Enjeti
Listen to On Purpose with Jay Shetty on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.
- [01:38]
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:45]
Saagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [01:51]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:02]
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com very excited now to be joined by Brandon Weickert. He's a longtime friend of mine and he is the senior national security editor@1945.com. Brandon, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate It.
- [02:20]
Brandon Weichert
Thank you for having me. It's good to be here.
- [02:22]
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely. So Brandon, you've been a longtime expert really here looking at munitions, U.S. defense readiness and we have a lot of things to talk to you about. First is some major breaking news guys. We can go ahead and put it up here on the screen. We are getting reports now from the United States is going to be moving parts of Thaad anti missile systems from South Korea to the Middle east in addition to multiple Patriot interceptors from across the Indo Pacific. So Brandon, this is something you and I had predicted at the very outbreak of the war. We're only about 10 days or so into this already cannibalizing stockpiles for a much more geopolitically important part of the US interest. But more importantly, what does this say about US Defense stockpiles, readiness and how the war is going with Iran right now?
- [03:07]
Brandon Weichert
Well, it certainly puts to bed the claim by Hegseth and runs counter to it that we have total control over the situation and we're doing so much American amazing, you know, rah rah blowing up things. Well, ultimately we've blown through our critical stockpiles in centcom. The report before the war began was that CENTCOM had for a high tempo war about eight days worth of, of of these weapons that we needed before we would need to start cannibalizing it. So we're at day 10, so we got a couple of days out of it. But this is an indicator that the war is not going well and certainly not winning anything. And in fact now we are starting to weaken our standing in the Indo Pacific. And I just want to point out that when these reports started surfacing around day four, the South Korean, there was a South Korean leader that the South Korean government feels like they've been quote betrayed by the United States. And so this again repeats the Kissinger line that to be an enemy of America is dangerous but to be a friend of America is fatal.
- [04:19]
Krystal Ball
I wanted to get your reaction to a post I saw this morning from Professor Robert Pape. He says Iran wore strategic results of 10 days of bombing attack. Iran leads to regional war, leads to global impact. War spread to 14 countries. Oil crisis Iran retains 50% plus missiles. Iran retains enrich uranium regime hardening not collapsing US gas prices up about 20%. I mean do you agree more or less with that assessment?
- [04:43]
Brandon Weichert
Yeah, I think Pape has been on the money with a lot of what he's been saying too. Yeah. So basically yesterday we saw President Trump, you know, try to I think goose the markets A little bit using the presidential pulpit to say, hey, no, I might, I might end this thing. But he has no intention of ending it. I've said since January we're going to war. And the President is deeply, for whatever reason, is deeply committed to this particular conflict. And I don't believe for a second he has any intention of ending it until he achieves what he said he wanted to achieve, which was regime change, which as cigar I'm sure you know as well this is, that's not gonna happen. With our current force posture and certainly with our current armaments, we are not in a position to do World War 3, which is what this is becoming. And one other thing, be watching the Horn of Africa as well as the Houthis get involved. There is a possibility the Ethiopians will mobilize to hit Eritrea's coastline to allow for the US and possibly Israelis to mount land based missile launchers there to better attack the Houthis. So this could spread into the Horn of Africa over the coming weeks as well.
- [05:49]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, good flag there. We also wanted to get some of your expertise in terms of the damage. So let's put D1 up here on the screen. For example, here you found apparent damage from Iranian strikes to several Thaad sites at US and allied bases. The US had moved more of exactly what we're talking about considering relocating this battery from South Korea. Brandon, can you describe for the audience like the level of intelligence and targeting that it takes to actually be able to hit and to cripple some of these things. And then also talk about the asymmetry in terms of the drone and or missile cost as opposed to the actual cost of some of these batteries.
- [06:22]
Brandon Weichert
Well, let's start with that last part first because that's the easiest thing to explain. You're basically trying to hit a $100,000 at best drone for, with with a missile that's a couple million dollars. And we, as I noted, we don't have a lot of those anyway. So what the Iranians have done very deftly, and this is part of their strategy, has been to get us to expend critical munitions in, you know, against these cheaper drones so that when it's time for the Iranians to go ham with their much more advanced missiles, which they haven't even really started popping off yet, but when it's time for that to occur, there will be less of a chance that we can shoot them down. You've also noticed the Iranians attacking high end radar systems throughout the region. This is to create a channel with which they can send these higher end missiles through when the time is right. The level of intelligence involved is significant because they have to have people on the ground at all times, basically keeping an eye out on what the Americans are up to. I also don't discount the presence of Russian and Chinese assistance in the form of intelligence assistance. We know the Chinese are helping the Iranians range targets with their higher end satellite constellations in orbit. So the fact of the matter is, is that we are basically laying supine in the region while the Iranians, you know, pick at us like the Lilliputians did to Gulliver.
- [07:54]
Krystal Ball
I mean, the whole thing seems so insane because it is. I'm no military expert, but I mean, foremost, if you tell me war in the Middle east, the first thing I'm gonna think of is oil. Second of all, we've watched the way that these drones have been deployed to great effect in Ukraine. So that seemed. We've been talking here about this interceptor math for, at this point, years, three years. And I know that top military officials were aware of the danger of this landscape because before Trump launched this war, they were leaking to every outlet they possibly could that this was a bad idea and that there were all sorts of vulnerabilities here. So what in your mind accounts for this? Just total strategic failure and failure to plan on even the most basic level?
- [08:40]
Brandon Weichert
Well, if you remember, Vice Admiral Kocher, on the eve of the war was relieved of his post with the Joint Chair with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs because he actually leaked the very contentious meeting that General Kaine, the chairman, had with President Trump because Trump wasn't listening to the generals about how dangerous this could be. So that's how significant, significantly opposed to this conflict the upper echelon of the uniform leadership has been. In fact, I think Kocher, my theory is Kocher actually did that at the request of Kaine, which is why Kocher has not been fired fully. He has been simply removed from the Pentagon and he's now working in another capacity, a lesser capacity. The fact of the matter is the President is deeply committed to this war. And I think this probably has something to do with his relationship with Netanyahu. I think this probably has to do also with the deal that was struck between himself and Miriam Adelson in June of 2024 to get the endorsement and the backing of the Zionist element of the Republican Party. Remember, a lot of the Zionists had turned on Trump after 2020. In fact, remember, Trump and Bibby hated each other after 2020 because Trump blamed Bibby for calling up Biden and congratulating him, you know, one of the first leaders. So it's a sort of a weird friendship now. And that was nursed by Miriam Adelson. And I think they were sort of feathering that particular bed with all of these deals the Trump family has been creating with a lot of Israeli. I think there's a telecommunications firm, there's a lot of Israeli business ties now between the Trump family. And I think that Trump just is enmeshed in this sort of Israeli worldview, and he thinks, hey, we gotta protect Israel. And, you know, there might be something else with the Epstein files. Who knows? But there's definitely. I think the president is being pulled by his nose by Netanyahu and the Likudniks in Israel.
- [10:35]
Saagar Enjeti
Just so people who are watching this. Brandon's not a liberal. He's at all. Yeah, you know, Brandon and I met because he's a Steve Bannon war room guy. Just so everybody understands in case that they're, you know, confused about some of your analysis. Which makes you more courageous, by the way, for actually saying, yeah, I've got.
- [10:51]
Brandon Weichert
You should see the hate mail I've gotten from certain people at Mar a Lago.
- [10:53]
Saagar Enjeti
Right there with you, brother. But here's the thing I've got. I've seen significant amount of pushback on you, Brandon. And they say, brandon, you're an idiot. The idea that Iran is achieving its war aims is preposterous. And in fact, we've seen a dramatic lessening in the number of missiles and drones. Secretary Hegseth was at the podium today, General Kaine saying the same thing. We have D4. If we want, we can put that on the screen. This was a graphic that was going around which actually shows the amount of munitions being fired by everybody. So, you know, you could say Israeli strikes are down, but, you know, US Strikes also kind of down as well. So what's your counter to that? You know, Iranian missiles have been. What is It Trump said 90% have been eliminated. Only a few drones. Is there any truth to it from your independent analysis?
- [11:35]
Brandon Weichert
Like I said to Steve the other day, we have degraded certain capabilities in Iran. The Iranians knew this was coming. So what they spent several years doing was decentralizing their command and control capability. So they had basically field commanders with a lot of missiles and drones. They were given final orders. If a certain event like the killing of Kymani were to happen, you are to basically initiate a prearranged orders in a sequence, and it will basically ensure that we are combat effective. And what I would say also is it's an interesting fact. I looked this up the other day. The US Air Force flew 5.29 million sorties in Vietnam. Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia. And that was with a full massive army on the ground fighting for a decade, and we still lost Vietnam. Why? Because our strategy did not comport with the realities on the ground and it did not comport with ends, ways, means. The Iranian strategy is very simple. Survive. That's all the regime has to do. And it has done that. Whereas the Americans are sort of flittering about saying, well, we want regime change, but then we also want denuclearization. But then we want to get rid of the ballistic missiles too. And, oh, we want to degrade the navy and get rid of the navy. And in the meanwhile, we're running out of stockpiles. The Iranians are fully aware that our stockpiles are depleting. Thank you, Mr. Zelensky. They are very well aware of that and they have calculated that into their plans. What's more, we have learned after fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq for 25 years ineffectively, you don't have to have a centralized force anymore for that force to be highly combat effective. Just ask the Taliban. So this is sort of a larger, you know, iteration of that with now long range missiles. And the reason the decline has happened, frankly, is because the Iranians have basically started shifting their munitions from the older systems that were built 2011, 2012, 2013, and they're now moving up the escalation chain. Why? Because they know that the Israeli interceptors are depleted and that the Arab interceptors are depleted. So now they don't have to use as many to still get hits in. And don't forget, they have around at least 88,000 drones. But I was told the other day by an expert, actually the Iranians have so many and they've spread them so far around the country, they actually don't know how many they have. It could be 100,000 drones that they have and they're ready to roll. And we have not destroyed those missile cities. We have hit some, but we don't actually know how many there are. So all the numbers of sorties we're flying, it's sort of random, out of context numbers to make everybody feel good about themselves.
- [14:20]
Krystal Ball
And they're able to continue manufacturing those drones as well, correct?
- [14:23]
Brandon Weichert
They are, yes. In fact, you know, Trump, I think, or Hegset this morning was talking about, hey, we've got, you know, we've, we've Taken out their missile capability, production capability. We've taken out what we can see. I mean, this is the key thing. They're underground. This is like Mao during the, you know, the Chinese Civil War. They're all underground. So we, we don't know. And ask anybody who served at tora bora in 2001, all the daisy cutters and bunker busting bombs in the world are not necessarily gonna collapse hardened facilities in the mountainside. So, you know, we don't have any idea exactly what we're destroying or how much we've destroyed. And clearly the Iranians are still combat effective.
- [15:02]
Saagar Enjeti
And so, Brandon, everything you're saying points to. So Secretary Hag's death today. Today will be the. He said today. This will be the largest day of bombing already. You know, it's like Mac v. Tehran basically in the way that they're talking. Yeah, like you said. But I mean, everything is pointing towards some sort of ground force having to enter maybe for a mission accomplished victory. Right. So they go in and they take the nuclear material. But what we're learning is that what people are saying is that yeah, you could send Delta Force in, but you're gonna have to send a lot of people around to protect them, a lot of air cover and everything that potentially could involve thousands of U.S. ground troops. How do you see any sort of even limited ground operation going now that the Iranians know that they might be coming prepared? That could create a death trap.
- [15:47]
Brandon Weichert
Well, that's exactly what's going to happen. I think we're walking into oblivion if we, if we do this. The, the newest idea out of Lindsey Graham, which he probably got while polishing Netanyahu's shoes, is that we're going to take Kharg Island. Well, Carg island, okay, that's a very hardened facility. It's going to require a lot of forces to take and hold. There's going to be a significant battle. The environmental damage if we blow things up there because it's a massive oil production center, could be worse than what we saw in Tehran that affect the region for decades. So yay America. And then also there's the talk about sending in U.S. special forces, which we might already be there. I don't know now, but I think we might already be there. But sending U.S. special forces into Iran to link up with organized resistance groups such as the Mujahedini, call me K. To replicate what we did in Afghanistan 01, when we basically sent a bunch of special forces, A teams and CIA paramilitaries augmented by US Air Power to, to basically serve as force multipliers for the locals to overthrow the government. But ultimately, the MEK is highly unpopular in Iran itself. Furthermore, they don't have anywhere near the combat effectiveness that the Northern alliance in Afghanistan did at the height of its power in 01. And also, it's a totally different kind of territory and topography. And again, you can't take a country that, with 96 million people, with a handful of Special Forces teams, it's just gonna get a lot of people killed and it's gonna further enmesh the United States. And if I can just add here, this is why I believe, and if you look at the damage in Israel, I believe the Israelis are getting ready to pop off a nuke. I really do. And I think this is a very dire moment in the history of our country because we are highly tethered to this, this insane policy. It's not our own policy. We're not writing it. This is the Israelis writing it for us.
- [17:42]
Krystal Ball
But yet, I mean, to your point, Trump seems very committed to it. So if they persuade him or not, you know, he's all in. And some of the reporting is that, you know, he was really pushing in this direction over. Yeah.
- [17:53]
Brandon Weichert
In January. He was definitely, in fact, in January. My understanding is on January 15, he had to be talked out of hitting them in Iran, both by Mohammed bin Salman and Netanyahu. So he's deeply committed.
- [18:07]
Krystal Ball
Well, I want to ask you more, though, about, you know, it's pretty provocative comment you just made that you're worried that Israel is going to pop off, you know, maybe a tactical nuclear weapon. Yeah.
- [18:17]
Brandon Weichert
Low yield.
- [18:17]
Krystal Ball
What, what makes you, you know, what gives you that concern? What makes you think that they could be heading in that direction?
- [18:24]
Brandon Weichert
The situation in Israel is dire. It is, it is not being adequately reported. I hope that I'm wrong on that. I used to think that was crazy talk, but if you look at what's going on and how the Israelis are responding with the censorship and the threats online, the threats that I've received, you know, I mean, I'm, I'm nobody, you know, but yet they're taking the time to send very interesting notes to me and hack my Gmail and anyway, but so clearly there's, there's more to the story. And they just tried, it sounds like, to kill someone close to Netanyahu, his brother. I don't know if they did manage to do that. But ultimately, the situation in Israel is dire and we know that the Israelis do have that Samson option, that if, if all is lost, they will start cooking off nukes against their perceived foes. And the Iranians are their number one perceived foe. And they're very annoyed with us because we're not, in their eyes, hitting hard enough, which is absolutely insane. I mean, we've thrown every, literally everything now at the Iranians, and they're still, they're still pushing along.
- [19:29]
Krystal Ball
Do you worry about the US Deploying nuclear weapons? Because Trump has sort of boxed himself into a corner now, where even if he wants to taco, the Iranians are like, nope, we're in this thing. You wanted this war. We're gonna be here until you sustain enough pain that you do not do this to us again. So is there a logical sequence that leads to us also?
- [19:54]
Brandon Weichert
Tucker asked me about this, and as I said to him, if you had asked me a year ago, I would have said, nah, it's not. We are not gonna do that. But looking at the odd way that Trump is married to Netanyahu's worldview,
- [20:10]
Krystal Ball
I
- [20:10]
Brandon Weichert
wouldn't put it past the man because he keeps talking about how we're going to go so big. We're going to. It's going to be the biggest thing ever. We're going to break them. Well, they're not breaking and killing the last leader and his small grandchildren. And now having his son take over probably is not the best way to get a deal. It's kind of putting the counterparty in an impossible, you know, mindset. They're not going to negotiate. Why would they? So the only way out of this then becomes escalation. And the ultimate escalation would be nuclear. Nuclear weapons. And it's not. It's not in the realm of impossibility. We saw this play out in the India Pakistan war last year, where basically the Indians started attacking the Kerna Hills nuclear weapons facility in Pakistan because the Pakistan's Pakistanis were resisting better than what they had anticipated. And that's when Trump had to get involved. So we've seen world leaders start to tease and look at, well, maybe the nuclear option is, is somehow palatable. And my hope is that somebody stops Trump if he is thinking about this.
- [21:13]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, the other thing that was flagged to me, Brennan, was not just a nuclear weapon, but potentially an atmospheric test, which would be similarly unfathomable. But a message that could be sent. I actually could see that easily. I could, too, I think, is the most realistic option in the immediate.
- [21:30]
Brandon Weichert
Yeah, that could be. And, you know, Cigar. They love to talk about how, you know, all these tests for nukes are Pre planned months in advance and blah, blah, blah. The President can cancel it the minute before it goes off if it was really just a pre planned thing, you know, so that's going to always be the excuse. But ultimately I really do think we are. We are in a very dangerous point in terms of releasing the nuclear genie from its bottle.
- [21:57]
Krystal Ball
Terrifying.
- [21:57]
Saagar Enjeti
Last thing we wanted to ask you about is casualties. Guys, can we go ahead and put D5 up there on the screen? So right now, this is from reporting from the Wall Street Journal. In addition to the seven US Military personnel killed in the war confirmed so far, eight have been seriously wounded. Those numbers do not include all American servicemen who have been hurt. We are hearing at least some reports that the current number is classified. Secretary Hegseth declined to actually give the total number. Do you think that they're hiding casualties? What do you think?
- [22:28]
Brandon Weichert
I hate to say it because I have a lot of people I know in the military and I don't like to think that we are hiding these things, but I believe this is Ukraine all over again where we were hiding real casualty figures. I think the casualty figures are significantly worse. Look at what happened to Bahrain. Look at the Fifth Fleet's headquarters. Just look at that. That's our primary logistics hub in the region. It's a moonscape. It looks like Gaza now, you know, so I can imagine there were people still on station there because you can't fully abandon it. I know we reduced our footprint as best we could, but I believe our casualties are probably significantly higher. And what will happen, I think, is they will eventually release them, but they will do it at a slower pace so that it doesn't shock the world news markets. And so that's where I think we are. And I think it is a tragedy. And honestly, this is the President's fault. I mean, the President chose to do this. And I do believe that we're going to need to have a reckoning politically because this is not what MAGA wanted. This is not what we voted for. This isn't certainly what I dedicated a decade of my life to support. It was supposed to be no new Middle east wars. And we are now at the cusp, I think, of World War Three.
- [23:38]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, well, he says MAGA is whatever he says it is, so.
- [23:41]
Brandon Weichert
Well, then that's a cult.
- [23:42]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, Agreed. Agreed.
- [23:44]
Saagar Enjeti
Maybe it was the whole time.
- [23:45]
Krystal Ball
Brandon, I really appreciate it. It's really just great to get your analysis. So insightful. Thanks for having me. Thank you so much for joining us.
- [23:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you, Brandon. Always appreciate it.
- [23:52]
Brandon Weichert
I'd Love to be back. Yeah.
- [23:53]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. See you, dude.
- [23:55]
Brandon Weichert
See ya.
- [23:58]
Saagar Enjeti
Next Monday, our 2026 iHeart Podcast Awards are happening live at south by South. This is the biggest night in podcasting. We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry.
- [24:11]
Krystal Ball
And the winner is.
- [24:13]
Saagar Enjeti
Creativity, knowledge and passion will all be on full display.
- [24:17]
Krystal Ball
Thank you so much, iheartradio.
- [24:19]
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you to all the other nominees.
- [24:20]
Krystal Ball
You guys are awesome.
- [24:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Watch live next Monday at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific free@veeps.com or the Veeps app.
- [24:29]
Krystal Ball
Hi, this is Jo Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter podcast where we talk about astrology, natal charts and how to step into your most vibrant life. And I just sat down with a mini driver.
- [24:40]
Saagar Enjeti
The Irish traveler said when I was 16. You're gonna have a terrible time with men.
- [24:45]
Krystal Ball
Actor, storyteller and unapologetic Aquarian visionary. Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives. And I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are Misunderstood a Sun and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house spark her unconventional approach to partnership.
- [25:05]
Saagar Enjeti
He really has taught me to embrace people sleeping in different rooms, on different
- [25:09]
Krystal Ball
houses, in different places, but just an embracing of the isness of it all. If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chart side view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity and real life, this episode is a must. Listen. Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to your podcast.
- [25:34]
Brandon Weichert
I'm Clayton ECKERD and in 2022, I was the lead of ABC's the Bachelor.
- [25:40]
Krystal Ball
Unfortunately, it didn't go according to plan. He became the first bachelor to ever have his final rose rejected. The Internet turned on him.
- [25:48]
Brandon Weichert
If I could press a button and rewind it all, I would.
- [25:51]
Krystal Ball
But what happened to Clayton after the show made even bigger headlines. It began as a one night stand and ended in a courtroom with Clayton at the center of a very strange paternity scandal. The media is here. This case has gone viral.
- [26:06]
Saagar Enjeti
The dating contract.
- [26:08]
Krystal Ball
Agree to date me, but I'm also suing you. Please.
- [26:11]
Saagar Enjeti
Search warrant.
- [26:12]
Brandon Weichert
This is unlike anything I've ever seen before.
- [26:15]
Krystal Ball
I'm Stephanie Young. This is Love Trapped this season, an epic battle of he said, she said and the search for accountability in a sea of lies. I have done nothing except get pregnant by the Bachelor. Listen to Love trapped on the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [26:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Turning now to the oil markets. Yesterday was literally one of the most historic days in the history of the oil market. Massive swings past dollar a barrel all the way down to some 80, $89 per barrel at the time that we are recording this. But what it is acknowledgement of is this administration is panicking over the price of oil. They're floating a lot of different things we showed you earlier. Trump says he may take over the entire Straits of Hormuz. As of this morning, it appears the United States Navy is spending significant amount of time going after Iranian mining assets all throughout the Straits of Hormuz. But Trump has also floated a different option, telling Fox News that some of these maritime pilots, they need to just have some guts and run the strait. Take a listen. Here's exactly what he said.
- [27:24]
Brandon Weichert
These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts.
- [27:28]
Saagar Enjeti
There's nothing to be afraid of.
- [27:29]
Brandon Weichert
They have no navy.
- [27:30]
Saagar Enjeti
We sunk all their ships. He went on to say.
- [27:32]
Brandon Weichert
He said, look, yeah, there's risk in the region.
- [27:35]
Saagar Enjeti
The region's volatile. Have some guts. There's nothing to be afraid of out there except for missiles, except for fire. Also, did you notice like the video that they're playing of Tehran oil apartment?
- [27:46]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, apocalyptic.
- [27:46]
Saagar Enjeti
And they're like, yeah, have some guts and just go through that. By the way, they'll have plenty of guts. If oil's at $200 a barrel. Sure they'll go at the current price. No, they're not doing it, especially with all of the insurance stuff that's going on right now. I also did wanted to make sure that Fox News, which you'll remember, was very concerned about gas prices, as was I. I think all Americans should have been under Biden. Now they're saying, look, pull up your trousers, all right? Pull your pants up and get ready for war. Boys and girls, it's your patriotic duty to pay more at the gas price pump. Take a listen until people can wrap
- [28:18]
Krystal Ball
their heads around that. I just think about every time this happens and people start the gas prices, my dad pulls out the ration coupon book from World War II and tells me how my granddaddy Chevy dealership just went poof overnight. Didn't get it back, lost his business. It just went goodbye because all of the auto manufacturing was redirected toward wartime manufacturing. So let's pull our trousers up, shall we?
- [28:54]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, it sounds like your dad is a reasonable guy, right? It's like he kind of should be worried about gas prices and Telling some of those stories in the past. That's what I think about too.
- [29:02]
Krystal Ball
Every time we get is this a World War II? We all need to come together. No, people do not want this war. I mean it is very likely to make the world a more dangerous place. It is already putting Americans at greater risk. They are unlikely to accomplish any of their objectives. The end state of this is much more likely that Iran is going to acquire a nuclear weapon. And then your cavalier leaf from your air conditioned studio with your multimillion dollar salary there in Manhattan telling Americans to pull up their trousers and sacrifice for a war that they did not want. I mean, it's so disgusting and preposterous to me. And you're right to point out the hypocrisy too, of course, because I'm sure when it was Biden and it was Ukraine, there was all kinds of concern for ordinary Americans and you know what they would be paying at the pump.
- [29:50]
Saagar Enjeti
Right? Exactly. You know, right now as we're speaking, I was just checking the AAA353 a gallon. It's gonna be 354 roughly a gallon and a increase from one week ago where it was $3.10. One month ago it was $2.92 cents.
- [30:06]
Krystal Ball
Oh, and we're just, we're just getting started, baby. We are just getting started here.
- [30:10]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. I mean, what a disaster. And then diesel also remains, you know, way on its, on its, it's remains on its way to some four or five dollars per gallon. So you all know how that's going to work out. Let's go and put the price of oil up there. As I explained yesterday, literally one of the most historic days in the history of the oil market. We took this literally right as we are filming. So keep that in mind as things all swing around. You have no idea where things are going to end up. Don't forget though that even where it is right now, so it's 88, 40 gallon in the live market in the last month. That means that oil is still up some 38% in terms of its price. And obviously that's going to impact, that's going to impact what happens at the gas pump. But the main reason why the price of oil appears to have gone down, let's put E4 up here on the screen. Is because we are now turning and quote, standing ready to release emergency oil reserves. So finance ministers from the entire G7 are pledging necessary measures to tackle surging crude prices. Prices but stop short of an immediate deal. So they said they won't immediately release it. But they said they want to address the impact of the Iran war, stand ready to take necessary measures included to support global supply of energy, such as stockpile releases. However, that would only be about 90 days or so worth of supply that they'd be able to release into the market. And if things did continue to go on, then obviously you have the whole Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is going to take a hit, but you also have the war, which they would need to wrap up at that time. So this is currently like the biggest indication. But I do think it's already worth noting things are already going crazy all across the world. So Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries in the world, they're already reporting power outages. Pakistan is reporting grid problems in Bangalore. Actually, let's put E6 up there on the screen. The story was going around. Bangalore hotel will now face shutdown from March 10 due to commercial gas supply. So cooking gas, if you've never been to India, there's a lot of cooking gas. That's the way that they cook everything. Bangalore, by the way, is one of the most developed cities in all of India, if you've ever been. That's where all the Silicon Valley people go. I'm pretty sure there's a direct flight from San Francisco to Bangalore. So imagine these Meta executives sitting in the Four Seasons and they're like, whoa, hold on a second. Where's my breakfast, man? And they're like, yeah, sorry, we can't cook anything because of a gas construction. So you could seriously begin to see some of this stuff ripple across the entire world. And remember what Rory Johnson said on our show yesterday? He's like, we will see significant demand destruction across the entire third World. Like, you will see the third World supplies there will just dry up. People won't even be able to drive the rest of the developed world. We'll just pay $5 a gallon. But that's the nightmare scenario for where we are right now.
- [32:50]
Krystal Ball
No, what he said was crazy. He was like, remember back to when everything was shut down in Covid and the level of demand destruction that entailed, meaning that people are not going anywhere because was just locked in their houses. He's like, that's what we're talking about here. That's the level of demand destruction that you're going to need in order to be able to equalize these markets if this persists for any significant amount of time. So that's where we are. I mean, you look at the markets and they are betting on Otago. They're betting that Trump is going to end the war, that it'll just be a little blip, that, you know, the oil markets will be a little bit. You know, there'll be some challenges in the short term, but they'll be able to recover. And all the oil fields will continue operating, and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and things will get back to normal in the immediate or, like, very near term. And look, maybe that's possible. It's possible Trump finds some way to declare a mission accomplished and that the Iranians, having been thoroughly battered in a lot of ways, are like, okay, fine, we'll walk away as well. That's possible, but it's not looking likely just given the. I think the Trump taco part would be a reasonable bet. But on the Iranian side, it's certainly not what they're projecting, and it would not be logical for them strategically to, at this point, say, okay, we're gonna allow you to recoup and regroup when clearly you are sustaining damage. We're gonna allow you to rebuild, for example, your radar satellite systems in the region so you can better track our missiles. We're gonna allow you to recover and to spend more time manufacturing interceptors so you're more ready the next time around. Why would that make any strategic sense for the Iranians? And the other thing, just going back to the point I was making before, they are engaged as much in economic warfare as they are in military warfare. You know, their goal is to crash our stock market, to crash our economy, to, you know, squeeze us in terms of gas prices. That is their goal. And so, as, you know, as the markets are betting that things are just going to go back to normal, that is the polar opposite of the strategy that is being deployed here by the Iranians. I guess the other possibility is that we truly have degraded their capacity to the point that they can't keep up the blockade and the Strait of Hormuz, which, by the way, isn't even really a blockade. They've just scared people enough that, you know, and screwed with the insurance industry enough that tankers are like, okay, we're not going to do this right now, but perhaps we've degraded them enough that they can't launch more missiles, that, you know, their leadership is taken out enough that they can't continue to drone strike, you know, various facilities in the region or pose any sort of threat to vessels that are trying to pass through the Strait. That would be the other bet. But again, given that they have this decentralized leadership, given the Fact, you see no indications of massive rifts within the regime or any sort of public uprising. Given that they have significant domestic manufacturing capacity for the drones that they're able to create in a very low cost way, it seems very unlikely to me that that is going to be the direction that we ultimately go in. And last thing I'll say is, look, we have been covering this long before this war. Our economy is a house of cards, right? The whole thing, I mean the job creation already last month was negative. The only sectors that added any jobs throughout all of 2025 were basically like health care and social services. The only real growth industry are these fricking data centers. Well, guess what? That's based on the economics of that is based on access to cheap energy. So the whole thing is built on this access to cheap energy. That's the whole bet, you know, the AI bet that's been placed in our economy. That is all being threatened right now by the Iranians. And they're smart enough to understand that. There's no doubt about it.
- [36:42]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, don't forget some of the ripple effects. So for example, the Gulf states, the Gulf states, if they have contractions in their economy, what are they going to do? Who wants to tell me who is financing a ton of these data centers deals? The Gulf, Emiratis, the uae, all of these people. Who wants to tell me who's financing Paramount and their current purchase of. You know, not going to cry about that one, but I'm just saying, like Paramount and their takeover of wbd, Saudis, a bunch of the Gulf states, if this Gulf state money dries up, I mean who, God only knows what the hell they are. Flow uber is, you know, massively invested. Google, Twitter, I mean all these places, like you have no idea the tentacles.
- [37:21]
Krystal Ball
They got their hands in a lot of pot.
- [37:22]
Saagar Enjeti
It's in everything. And if they have to start exiting their positions or sell, I mean, God help us in terms of the US economy, I'm talking about shopping mall closure. I remember when I was growing up in Texas, all the nicest malls are all owned by like the Kuwaiti royal family. You have no idea where all of this cash has been. That's their whole strategy is about coming like this with the US with the assumption is we'll defend them. Now what? Right? And if they really get hit. Yeah, now they're a target. They're mad, they might pull their cash. That's what that billionaire was saying. He's like, hey, you know, you know the whole point of this whole thing was we get something in exchange. But if this deal is going to dry up, we might fundamentally rethink a whole lot of assumptions and cause a lot of problems for you, too. And that's probably what I'm the most afraid of. So it's ordinary Americans, our whole capital markets, venture capital, depression. I mean, that's, that's how the 1970s played out. So it's, it's really bad.
- [38:17]
Krystal Ball
All right, let's get to Epstein. Since this is potentially part of the reason why we're in this war, nobody really knows, although I think a majority of Americans probably believe that this has something to do with why Trump felt the need to launch this insane war. We have some new very significant developments on two fronts. So one directly does involve Trump. We've been talking about how some of the interviews with one of, with his most credible accuser in terms of, you know, in the context of Epstein, how those interviews were not available. Well, under pressure, they have now been revealed. So put that to the side. We'll talk about that in just a second. The other piece, though, has to do with a potential cover up of what really happened on the day that Epstein died. Let's put this up on the screen. This is pretty bombshell reporting here from the Miami Herald and also from the New York Post. The headline here is, and this is, of course, Julie K. Brown. Prison guards discussed cover up of Epstein's death. An inmate tells the FBI I'll read you from the story. An inmate house at the Metropolitan Correctional center in New York told the FBI he overheard guards talking about covering up Jeffrey Epstein's death on the morning he died. The federal government's online Epstein Library contains a five page handwritten report of an FBI interview with an inmate who awoke the morning of August 10, 2019, to the loud commotion in the special housing unit or or shoe where he and Epstein were jailed. Breathe, Breathe. He recalled officers shouting about 6:30am Then he said he heard an officer say, dudes, you killed that dude. A female guard replied, if he is dead, we're going to cover it up and he's going to have an alibi, my officers. The FBI notes. The, the FBI notes said the inmate claimed the whole thing. Whole wing overheard the exchange. Later, after learning Epstein had died, he said inmates Ms. Noel killed Jeffrey. He identified the female guard as Tova Noel, one of two correctional officers who were later charged with falsifying reports. So it appeared from their records they had made their rounds that night when they had not. The charges against her and the other officer, Michael Thomas, were later dropped. But both were fired. So that is one of the pieces here. We get another piece from the New York Post which adds to the story of this one guard, Ms. Noel. So this Epstein prison guard googled him minutes before his body was found and also made mysterious deposits before his quote, unquote, suicide. One of Jeffrey Epstein's prison guards, this very same one that the inmate said was involved, she had googled Epstein minutes before he was found dead. So supposedly no one knew he was dead. And she's there googling Jeffrey Epstein in prison. She also made a mysterious $5,000 cash deposit 10 days before the predators jail cell suicide. New Department of Justice documents reveal she was one of two Metro Correctional center workers accused of falsifying records. So you know, she's the one who was supposed to be there watching him. She's allegedly falls asleep and they falsify the records. That was the story. The guards were fired, but criminal charges against both were later dropped. Specifically what she googled at 5:42am and then again at 5:52am 40 minutes before her colleague found Epstein dead in his cell. What she googled was quote, latest on Epstein in jail. So she googled latest on EPSTEIN in jail 40 minutes before anyone found his body. Allegedly. And then the other piece is this, this money that, you know, mysteriously turned up in her account. Apparently she was shopping for furniture online. Apparently she was driving a fancy vehicle as well. You know, I'm not sure that that's easy to come by when you're earning the salary of a prison guard. So some pretty significant questions here, Sagar, about, okay, was this investigated, what was determined? Did anyone ever look into where this cash came from? You know, what the hell happened here? Because these are some pretty wild claims being made.
- [42:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, the defense is, well, she googled a bunch of the inmates. So I'm like, okay, what about the cash? Also, that's a little weird. And then there was the COVID up and then there was all the cameras and so look, I mean, oh, body double. Remember that? The body double and then the press release draft that came out the day where it was drafted, the day before. None of this stuff adds up. The autopsy and you put it all together. I just think it's so obvious that this is. I think it's so obvious that something much bigger happened here. Well, I don't believe the official story. That's it.
- [42:52]
Krystal Ball
Period. And let me give you just a couple more details here about Ms. Doel. Apparently her bank record showed seven different cash deposits totaling $11,880 in the weeks leading up to, and then immediately after Epstein's debt. The largest one was that $5,000 deposit she was driving a $62,000 Land Rover range Rover, brand new. And she was not, apparently, asked about the catch cash during her DOJ interview. An internal FBI briefing, also release files reveals the agency thought Noel was likely the mysterious orange shape spotted in a blurry surveillance video near Epstein's cell around 10:40pm that night. So, mysterious cash driving a fancy car, shopping for furniture, Googling Epstein before he's known to be dead. You know, theorized to be that mysterious orange shape that they initially lied about and pretended didn't exist and then said, must have been an incident inmate. And so, yeah, I don't know. That's.
- [43:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Draw your own conclusions.
- [43:55]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, draw your own conclusions, indeed. Okay, let's get to the Trump aspect of this story. So, as we've been covering, the Trump accuser who had called into the FBI originally as an anonymous tip, but they found to be credible enough to have interviewed her four times. This was a woman who claimed in the 80s when she was roughly 13 years old, that Trump sexually assaulted her and that this, you know, it was Epstein that introduced her to Trump and enabled this abuse. And she also alleges that Epstein abused, sexually abused her as well as one other wealthy man from the Hilton Head, South Carolina area. And we'll get to that in a moment. So, under pressure, the Justice Department has now released all of these interviews. We previously had access to only one. Now we have access to all of these interviews. We can put this up on the screen. Justice Department releases missing Epstein documents with Trump allegations. On Thursday, they publicly posted these records. The agency said the files, which include details from FBI interviews with a woman who told authorities she had been sexually assaulted by Trump and Epstein, had not been previously released because they were incorrectly determined to be duplicates of other records. Oh, oops, we just happened to withhold these ones. Sorry, guys, made a mistake. Anyway, here they are. Justice Department's posted millions of pages of Epstein related records online. The woman who was interviewed by The FBI in 2019 accused Trump of sexually assaulting her decades earlier when she was a minor. No evidence has emerged publicly to corroborate that accusation. The White House has, of course, called the allegations against Trump, quote, completely baseless accusations backed by no credible evidence. However, listen. And that is all true, right? We don't have any confirmation that this claim was actually true, that this is something that really happened. However, there are a few things to note here. Number one, the FBI did consider her Credible enough that they interviewed her four separate times. Okay. That indicates that they took the claim seriously. Also, in addition to her reports and interviews with the FBI, one of her friends also actually called into the FBI to say, hey, this happened to my friend. Trump and Epstein sexually abused my friend. So you have not only her, but you have a friend as well who also separately called in to the FBI's anonymous tip line. Then you also have this. Let's put this next piece up on the screen. This is from the Post and Courier based in Charleston, South Carolina. And so they dug into some of this timeline because she made accusations that a lot of this abuse, not the Trump abuse actually, but the Epstein and another wealthy man abuse happened in Hilton Held, South Carolina. So they say here fuzzy memories and hard facts and SC accusers claims against Epstein and Trump examined. And what they found using archived government records and news except accounts was that the woman did provide verifiable details to agents about her family background and its illegal entanglement. She offered the name of an Epstein business associate on Hilton Head island who became a central figure in the drama with specifics that are reflected in public records. So this is a horrifying situation. Allegedly her mother rented out a number of properties. Hilton Head island, you guys probably know, is like big resort area. And one of the houses she rented to was to Jeffrey Epps Epstein. Separately, she advertised that her daughter, who was 13 at the time, was available as a babysitter. And lo and behold, who again allegedly hires her is Jeffrey Epstein, who then proceeds to abuse her, proceeds to have a wealthy friend, business owner in Hilton Head, South Carolina also abuse her. And then when her mother discovers that Epstein had nude photos of her, Epstein, Epstein allegedly again extorts this woman's this then girl's mother and says, I'm going to release these photos if you don't pay me this money. So she goes to her boss, who is the wealthy business owner who is also abusing her daughter and arranges to get this money to pay off Jeffrey Epstein who is now extorting her. And this is all like she ultimately ends up being sued by this company for this money. It's. So there is a paper trail of all of these details which seem to match up with what the allegations ultimately say. And then the last part of this that is just so incredibly sad is that this allegedly pushes her mother into drinking. Her life falls apart, of course. This young girl, 13 years old, her whole life falls apart. And she's in and out of relationships after that and struggling with addiction and all of those sorts of things. One of her husbands said that she had told him that the reason she was so traumatized and her life was such a mess was because of this abuse from Jeffrey Epstein. So again, we don't know about the Trump part of this story. Obviously he denies it, et cetera. But the other details she offered in the context of this overall allegation and story do line up with the timeline, the places, the people, people, even the, you know, the court records, et cetera.
- [49:05]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I think the biographical detail confirmation is important. I will say on the Trump stuff it is. I've looked into this one. It's very hard to believe. So Mark Epstein, the brother says Epstein never had a property in South Carolina. Also, the year doesn't make any sense. So Epstein was only 30 years old in 1984. 1984 is long before he had any real money. This even predates his initial relationship with Wexner. There's no reason he would have known Donald Trump was already a billionaire at this time. Time actually 1984 is right around the time whenever he's fired from Bear Stearns and then he goes and starts the J. Epstein Company. The so called. Like this is when I think he was involved in a lot of these deep intelligence activities. Now the skeevy behavior part with Epstein may actually, I mean, could be true. You know, we don't really know for sure. A lot of that portion of his life is extremely unknown. So it is possible, we do know that he had the sketchy behavior with young girls at the Dalton School. And obviously this is something you've been fetishizing and obsessed with, you know, for a long time. But the Trump part of this one really doesn't make a lot of sense because there's just no reason that they would have known each other back in 84. And there's no public reporting around that at the time. Now she could be getting the date wrong. I could be, you know, it could be wrong. But that's the. She specifically says 1984. And everything I know about his life, it doesn't make any sense.
- [50:21]
Krystal Ball
So he. The Bear Stearns fallout happened in 81. And so in 84 he was operating this company he founded in New York that was allegedly providing jfc. Yeah, right. Providing advice to wealthy clients, et cetera. So he has not fully established himself as the.
- [50:40]
Saagar Enjeti
This is when I think he was an economic hitman, like he was doing the Hoffenberg, the Ponzi scheme. 84 is in the. It's before he's really rich. Right. He didn't become actually rich until the early 1990s 90s. So this is the time whenever he's working with Douglas Leese and Adnan Khashoggi. I think this is really when he got a lot of his intelligence. Bonafide also remember 80 in the early 1980s. That's right. When he's working with Iran Contra. I wouldn't put it past him. Some of the behavior necessarily. I hadn't heard, you know, specifically though, anything about extortion. I mean, who knows though? This is part of the problem. A lot of the early 1980s, we really don't know a lot about him. But the Trump part on this one, I'm not buying it yet. At least, least that's from what I've seen so far. And I'm just saying I call it like I see it. If I'd seen more, if I'd seen some stuff from the 1990s or any of that, I would definitely have believed. I will say it's sketchy, you know, not releasing it. That's. Yeah, that part I think we can definitely agree on. Just want to make sure we give all that context. Okay, guys, thank you so much for watching. We appreciate it. Do not forget about our promo going on right now for a free month trial BP free 26. You can sign up@breakingpoints.com Ryan and Emily will be on tomorrow. Tomorrow? I'm pretty sure they've already got a full, full show by the time we've unwrapped this one. So that's how the news is going right now. But we'll see you later.
- [52:07]
Krystal Ball
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