3/11/26: Jake Tapper Crashes Out On Ryan, Americans Says War Is For Epstein & Israel, Bill Maher Praises Iran War

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode Date: March 11, 2026
Episode Title: Jake Tapper Crashes Out On Ryan, Americans Says War Is For Epstein & Israel, Bill Maher Praises Iran War

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Episode Overview

This episode of Breaking Points dives deeply into a series of intersecting controversies: the media storm around New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani due to his wife's social media activity, corporate media's framing of the Iran War and its motivations, revealing new polling data about American attitudes on the war, and the ways in which major media and popular commentators (such as Jake Tapper and Bill Maher) are shaping narratives about war, extremism, and public opinion.

Throughout, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti dissect the establishment and legacy media's tactics, highlight anti-establishment polling and perspectives, and react to the notable takes of other major media figures.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Controversy Surrounding Mayor Zoran Mamdani and Instagram Likes

[02:01–09:11]

• Situation: Media outlets (CNN, New York Times, Jewish Insider) are targeting NYC Mayor Zoran Mamdani because his wife “liked” Instagram posts connected to the October 7th, 2023, Gaza attacks.
• Narrative and Spin:
  • Posts are being characterized as “anti-Israel” or “anti-Semitic” when, upon inspection, they represent more general anti-occupation or anti-apartheid sentiments, and are in line with positions taken by human rights groups (Bet Salem).
  • Krystal notes, “We’re talking about years-old Instagram likes at this point. The man was democratically elected the mayor of New York City." ([06:44])
• Mainstream Media Tactics:
  • CNN and Jake Tapper intended a debate segment (with, e.g., Olivia Reingold and Sam Seder) on “the mayor’s wife’s Instagram likes;” it was preempted by Trump’s press conference. ([09:13])
  • Olivia Reingold (on CNN): “Who you decide to marry is one of the most important decisions you can make... it says a thing or two about you. That is why this is a story.” ([10:42])
  • Tapper’s eventual coverage is, as Saagar says, “just three of them trashing the mayor, his wife, and Mahmoud Khalil.” ([13:11])
• Framing Critique: Krystal and Saagar argue this is a campaign to gin up distraction and generate animosity, especially as public opposition to the Iran War grows.
• Notable Quote:
  • Saagar: “All they can do is, like, find some group that’s affiliated with a group that he [Mahmoud Khalil] was affiliated with that at one point said something on Instagram... That’s all they’ve got him.” ([14:43])

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2. Media Coverage of Mahmoud Khalil & Claims of Terror Apologia

[11:11–18:47]

• Smearing of Khalil:
  • CNN panelists and the NYT have painted Khalil, a Palestinian activist and former mediator at Columbia, as an apologist for terrorism.
  • Saagar: “At one point, Jonah Goldberg called him an outright apologist for terrorism—just not true about Mahmoud Khalil.” ([16:28])
• Conflation with Extremism:
  • Discussed a NYT reporter who, during a press conference, asked Mayor Mamdani what message he’d send to “potential ISIS terrorists,” highlighting the media’s tendency to conflate Muslim public figures with extremism. ([23:13–25:20])
  • Krystal: “The predicate of the question is so weird and ... reflects this very legacy media, corporate media, cartoonish understanding of how extremism works.” ([25:20])

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3. Critique of Media War Coverage & Pro-War Narratives

[26:24–32:00]

• Jake Tapper’s Coverage of Iran War:
  • Tapper brings on an Israeli analyst tied to Israeli intelligence, who claims “Iranians on the ground ... are very happy that regime targets [are] being hit.” ([27:27])
  • Saagar draws the parallel: “Can you imagine if Iranian state TV brought on an Iranian analyst ... to say Israelis love getting bombed? ... I think Iranian state TV would not even think to run a segment like that.” ([29:06])
• Bill Maher’s Rhetoric (Previewed, expanded later):
  • Bill Maher “praises” the liberation narrative for bombing Iran, echoing the early 2000s Iraq War justifications.

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4. Polling: American Attitudes on Iran War, Epstein Conspiracies, and Israel

[41:13–63:31]

• New Dropsite/Zatteo/Data for Progress Poll:

  • Iran War Motivation: 52% agreed Trump attacked Iran, at least in part, to distract from Jeffrey Epstein (vs 40% disagreed); Republicans least likely, Democrats most likely to believe this. ([42:41])
  • Public Opposition:
    • 92% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and nearly 20% of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s military action in Iran. ([48:13])
    • When asked if they’d be more/less likely to support a 2028 candidate who supports war with Iran, 83% of Democratic primary voters said “less likely”, independents 61% “less likely.” ([51:21])
    • Only 19% of Republicans said the same—showing significant partisan split.
  • Perceived Motivations (America vs Israel):
    • 50% of Americans say war is for “American interests”, 41% for “Israeli interests”; however, 50% of independents suspect it’s Israeli interests. ([53:27])
    • When Netanyahu is specifically named, only 47% say Trump prioritizes American interests, 46% say Netanyahu’s. ([63:31])
  • Ballistic Missiles:
    • 83% think it’s important Iran be prevented from possessing ballistic missiles, but majority remain opposed to current war—“shows consistency among people who are responding to the questions.” ([62:30])
  • School Attacks & Knowledge of Events:
    • Most respondents (across parties) had heard about the attack on an Iranian girls’ school; however, a significant minority had not. ([56:18])
    • On responsibility, Republicans divided (45% say Iran did it, 45% say US/Israel), but most others blame the US or Israel.

• On Polling and Narrative Formation:

  • Krystal: “Polling is one of the biggest ... news gathering where ... pretense of neutrality creates conventional wisdom... if you don’t ask other questions, you don’t get answers.” ([59:39])

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5. Sexual Assault Claims from October 7th: Evidence and Mainstream Narrative

[33:12–39:07]

• Lack of Conclusive Evidence:
  • Media, especially CNN, continues to cite claims of widespread sexual violence; Saagar and Krystal stress the absence of concrete, verifiable evidence (“no victims who have said it happened to them ... all claims of forensic evidence and photos ... never materialized”). ([35:18])
  • Krystal: “There is this giant strawman ... you are denying any possibility that any of this happened, and it’s just never been true." ([37:59])
  • They compare this to the “lab leak” COVID narrative—a mainstream narrative widely disputed by independent researchers and large segments of the public.

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6. Media Critique: NYT's Obsession with “Instagram Likes” and Search Optimizations

[18:47–21:37]

• Example of “SEO journalism”:
  • NYT’s coverage critiqued for shoehorning Mamdani's wife’s name and “Instagram likes” into headlines and articles to ride the wave of search interest.
  • Krystal: “That's my conspiracy theory… when you put her name in you can get in the SEO... then they can click on the New York Times story.” ([20:32])

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7. Perspectives in Podcast/Media Space: Rogan & Maher on the Iran War

[67:31–77:00]

• Joe Rogan and Michael Shellenberger:
  • Dissection of Rogan's position: Rogan expresses skepticism over Trump’s motivations (“He ran on no more wars ... and then we have one we can’t even really clearly define why we did it.” [68:00]) but asserts Trump is “his own man,” acting independently, not at Israel or anyone's behest.
  • Krystal: “You really think it's that simple? Trump's doing what he wants to do?” ([69:26])
• Bill Maher Segment:
  • Maher praises the bombing of Iran as “liberation,” dismissing the idea that liberals should oppose it unless “boots on the ground.”
  • Notable Quotes:
    • Maher: “You cannot name one horrible thing that has happened in the Middle East in the last 50 years and not connected to this fascist theocracy. ... Iranians all over the world are doing the Trump dance.” ([72:47])
    • Maher: “For now, I just don't get what liberals don't get about liberation. I see so much happiness.” ([73:31])
  • Krystal and Saagar dissect the change in Maher’s stance from his 9/11 and Iraq War era positions to now, noting his “red line” is boots on the ground, not airstrikes.
  • Saagar: “He hates religion, he hates Islam in particular... Caesar going after Iran is like fulfilling that itch that he's got.” ([74:42])
• Reflection on Media Influence:
  • Krystal: "It's crazy how the same playbook just gets reused over and over again ... it has real consequences." ([30:29])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Krystal, on media priorities: “Controversy, as ever, is swirling ... and CNN is apparently fueling some of this or covering it. Seriously, people are very upset at you. And drops it.” ([02:01])
• Saagar, on media smears: “The New York Times and CNN have, yes, absolutely, completely and totally lost their minds.” ([02:53])
• Olivia Rheingold (via Krystal): “Who you decide to marry is one of the most important decisions you can make ... it says a thing or two about you. That is why this is a story.” ([10:42])
• Saagar, on polling: "There has never in American history been a war of any size where ... 41% of the public thinks he [the president] did it for a foreign country." ([54:57])
• Krystal, on polling and media silos: “No matter what media silo you were in, on average, you had heard about this [Iran girls' school attack]... it probably gets to why Senator John Kennedy on Fox News yesterday came out and said it was horrible.” ([56:42])
• Saagar, on Bill Maher: "Didn't Bill Maher lose his show for criticizing the invasion of Iraq?" ([73:54])
• Krystal, on patterns in persuasion: “Polling ... is about the manufacturing of conventional wisdom … if you don’t ask other questions, you don’t get answers.” ([59:39])

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [02:01] — Segment begins: Media stirs controversy over Mayor Mamdani and Instagram likes.
• [09:13] — CNN’s planned debate, Olivia Rheingold statement.
• [13:11] — Tapper, Goldberg & Finney panel: smearing Mamdani, Khalil.
• [16:28] — “Apologist for terrorism” critique.
• [23:13] — NYT reporter’s press conference question connects Mamdani to ISIS.
• [27:17] — Jake Tapper’s war coverage, Israeli analyst.
• [33:12] — Sexual assault claims and evidence (lab leak analogy).
• [41:13] — Polling data on Iran war, Epstein, Israeli interests.
• [53:27] — Polling: American vs. Israeli interests as reason for war.
• [67:31] — Media focus group: Joe Rogan, Bill Maher respond to Iran War.
• [72:47] — Bill Maher “liberation” monologue.
• [76:44–77:40] — Reflection on Maher’s history, post-9/11 commentary, and how the discourse has changed.

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Summary & Takeaways

• Establishment Media Tactics: Krystal and Saagar consistently call out the legacy press for distraction, misrepresentation, personal targeting (Instagram like scandals), and the amplification of pro-war narratives.
• Public Dissonance: New polling underscores that large portions of the public reject both the war itself and the establishment narrative, with many suspecting ulterior motives (e.g., Epstein distraction, Israeli influence).
• Commentator Divide: While popular media personalities like Joe Rogan and Bill Maher offer dissenting or even pro-war takes, both reflect and shape broader public confusion and debate about war motives, presidential independence, and what counts as “liberation.”
• Meta-lesson: The importance of independent, anti-establishment journalism and polling emerges as a recurring motif—namely, only by asking “unwanted” questions do you get at the real divides and opinions shaping the American political public on issues of war and foreign policy.

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Further Reading/Viewing

• Dropsite and Zatteo polling results (as referenced in the episode)
• Jake Tapper segments on CNN (especially Tapper's panels on the Mamdani controversy)
• Rewind: Bill Maher post-9/11 commentary vs. today
• Recent NYT and CNN coverage on Iran and the Iran War
• Mahmoud Khalil’s Columbia activism and ICE detention

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Support Independent Media:
As Krystal and Saagar note, consider supporting outlets that provide independent polling and reporting to keep stories honest, broad-ranging, and connected to public sentiment.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Controversy, as ever, is swirling around New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani and actually also a little bit around as ever, Ryan Grim, the folks over at Drop site who are at the center of this controversy. Ryan Zora Momdani hosted Mahmoud Khalil Zora Mamdani's wife is now having an Instagram autopsy conducted of her likes. And CNN is apparently fueling some of this or covering it. Seriously, people are very upset at you. And drops it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

People are always upset at me.

[Krystal Ball]

That's true.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

And not always without reason. Mostly without reason. Not always without reason.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The haters are swirling. The New York Times and CNN have, yes, absolutely, completely and totally lost their minds. My theory, and we're going to talk about why this, I think, matters, because it's reshaping the way that kind of news is delivered. My theory on what's going on here is that Marco Rubio, I think, drove some people completely insane when he said out loud that the reason we attacked Iran right now is because Israel was going to attack.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, well, and Mike Johnson.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And Mike Johnson said the same thing. And then Tom Cotton went on and he said the same thing. So all of these people have said that Israel is the reason that we went to war when we did. And the public is against this war by 20 plus point margins. Doesn't understand. Thinks it will make their lives worse. Doesn't understand why we're doing it. Thinks it's in Israeli interests and not ours. And so I think you gotta gin up a little bit of distractive hatred towards Muslims if you can. And who better to go after than Zoran Mamdani? So all of. So this, this kicked off. And if you can throw in Mahmoud Khalil. Oh, boy. So this kicked off with a quiet story March 6, published in Jewish Insider, which we can put up here. I follow their reporting very closely because if you follow it, I'm sure you do, you're going to know what's coming in the days ahead.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And also their coverage of primary campaigns is very good, too. Like if when they start flagging a particular candidate as a bad person.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, interesting.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That is, they always use the word alarmed.

[Krystal Ball]

Yep.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It'll say like a pack donor is alarmed at so and so. And then within weeks, like, there's. There are fake APAC super PACs spending money against this person. So it's like a very. An early warning sign about, like, where. What's going on? So this was an early warning sign, like, oh, for some reason, Ramadiwaji Zoran Mamdani's wife is going to be the target of a campaign coming forward. And sure enough, so their headline was, Zorhan Mamdani's wife liked social media posts celebrating Oct. 7 attacks. And you squint and you're like, wait a minute. Because, you know, in this world, the algorithms are constantly serving us very old stories. And you don't want to be one of those unks that, like, shares something that's like a year and a half old, right?

[Krystal Ball]

Did you say unks? Yes, proving that you're not an unknown.

[Saagar Enjeti]

They're like, unk, this story's 18 months old. Why are you sharing this?

[Krystal Ball]

And you're like, oh, God, One of those Unks. A memoir by Ryan Graham.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Such a boomer. So you squint, you're like, oh, no. Yes. This is about October 2023, but they are writing it today. It is like the date ON this is March 6, 2026. And we can put some of the actual Instagram posts up towards the end, but they do this thing where they euphemistically or just kind of generally describe them as anti Israel or anti Semitic even. And you look at the actual posts, and they're like, entirely defensible things that, like, broad swaths of the public would agree with that, like torture prisons. Like, for instance, like, they talk about a torture camp, which was written about by Bet Salem, the Israeli human rights group, which, you know, they, they. They kind of referred to as like a. An Israeli version of a concentration camp. And they call that Holocaust inversion. Like, how dare you use any of the language that is derived from the Holocaust to describe what Israel is doing to people. People inside Palestinians, inside of Israel. Whereas when you look at what they're actually doing, it's like, well, a lot of people think that torture, like, routine, daily torture is bad.

[Krystal Ball]

There are a couple of these posts I think are.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What's the worst one you hear?

[Krystal Ball]

We're talking about Instagram likes. It's already. But a couple of the posts. There's one where you see a bulldozer breaking down the wall on October 7, and it says, breaking the walls of apartheid and military occupation. October 7, 2023. Systemic change for collective liberation. There's another one where it's like IDF vehicle, and it says punished for wanting. It's referring to Palestinians. It says punished for wanting freedom from apartheid. I understand people might disagree with me on this, and I think it's, you know, again, we're talking about years old Instagram likes at this point. The man was democratically elected the mayor of New York City. A couple of them, I think when you're on October 7th, like, one of these Instagram posts was literally on October 7th. Two of them, actually, the ones that I just mentioned were on October 7th. I think that reflects some poor judgment, but, you know, that's an argument that we could have.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Mamdani, in a statement To Jewish insider said his spokesperson, Mayor Mamdani has been clear and consistent. Hamas is a terrorist organization. October 7th was a horrific war crime. And he has condemned that violence unequivocally. There you go. And so to be clear, like, what she's doing is different there. What she's saying is that she sees this as resistance to occupation and to apartheid.

[Krystal Ball]

I just think it's, to me, it feels like it's very close to celebrating violence, which I would not do if it's the United States in Iran. Right. Or Israel in Iran.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right. But if you did, you would not be condemned.

[Krystal Ball]

Absolutely. I completely agree with that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So anyway, so let's even say just for the sake of this argument, that these are terrible, problematic posts. I don't necessarily think they are, but let's just say for the sake of, of this segment that they are. So how did CNN and the New York Times kind of respond to this? Well, you start seeing the free press pick up. Olivia Rheingold starts doing. She went through and I guess found more Instagram likes that she found problematic. So Jake Tapper then decides that he's going to do a segment and he's going to bring on. We now know Sam Seder talked about that it was going to be Olivia Rheingold and Sam Seder discussing the mayor's wife's Instagram likes.

[Krystal Ball]

Now, I would watch that segment.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think that's good for YouTube. I think it's embarrassing for news. So D3, here's Olivia talking about the it getting bumped and I think basically by Trump because he talked. He did like a long press conference and kind of preempted the show. Here's Olivia Reingold.

[Krystal Ball]

I was supposed to go on CNN tonight to debate my latest reporting on the Instagram likes of Ramadawaji, that is the wife of Mayor Zoran Mandani. The debate got canceled. But these are the points I was going to make. One, I wanted to just get into the extreme nature of the posts that his wife was liking. These were not your average pro Palestine post. These were way more anti Israel than they were pro Palestine. There was a post celebrating October 7th. There was another one doubting whether women had really been raped on October 7th. And there was even one that showed Holocaust inversion. The next thing I wanted to address was Mamdani's response that his wife is a, quote, private person or private citizen, if that is a standard. I've never heard of that before because does anyone remember when Justice Alito's wife hung the flag upside down and there were A zillion articles about that. What about Melania, when she wore that jacket that said, I don't really care, do you? That was news, right? Who you decide to marry is one of the most important decisions you can make. Your husband or your wife is the first person that you see in the morning and then the last person you see in the day. So it's fair to say that it says a thing or two about you. That is why this is a story. That is what makes the Instagram likes of Ramadiwaji newsworthy is not because of her, it's because of who she's married to. And so that was my main question is just, does the mayor agree with these sentiments? And he still hasn't answered that well,

[Saagar Enjeti]

so who agreed with that? None other than Jake Tapper at cnn. So even though his segment was canceled between Olivia and Sam Cedar, he brought it back together the next day. And so his, it seems like his justification for it was the mayor invited Mahmoud Khalil for an iftar dinner at Gracie Mansion, saying, Mahmoud Khalil is a New Yorker, he belongs in New York. Put on an Instagram picture and you know, it marked a year since he'd been detained as the mediator between. He was the mediator between Columbia University and the protesters and spent a long time in prison. Trump trying to deport him. In the photo was Mamdani's wife. It's like, aha, she eats dinner at the mansion right there. Gotcha. Now we can do a segment on you. So let's. It was. So I have. Nobody should be surprised at kind of basement level expectations for cnn. I was shocked at this segment, like genuinely appalled, like, wow, let's roll a little bit of this. Jake Tapper. It's Jake Tapper, Jonah Goldberg and Karen Finney because they gave up on the idea of having somebody like Sam Seder come on and actually put, put up the opposing side. It's just three of them just trashing the mayor, his wife and Mahmoud Khalil. Let's roll a little bit of it with a high profile Palestinian activist detained and released by ice. The mayor writes, quote, we marked the one year anniversary of detention. Rama and I were honored to welcome Mahmoud, meaning Mahmoud Khalil Noor and their son Dean to Gracie Mansion to break our fast together. It is Ramadan. Mahmoud is a New Yorker and he belongs in New York City, unquote. Now you might remember Mahmoud Khalil as the anti Israel protester from Columbia University, to say the least. I get the talking point part of my Problem is that we live in a culture now that the second you're discriminated against or face state action because you're doing because of your First Amendment right exercises, that makes you a martyr, makes you kind of a hero. This guy's not a hero. He's a putz. The organization that he was part of just got into trouble at the beginning of this war by tweeting out Death to America. The organization was pro Hamas. He and the organization defended the 10, 7 attacks in pretty explicit terms. And this comes on the heel of this other controversy of Zoram Dami's wife being revealed to have liked a whole bunch of social media posts saying that the mass rapes were all a hoax and that Hamas was justified and all that kind of stuff. The Klan marching in Skokie weren't heroes. We didn't treat them as heroes for doing that. You're right.

[Krystal Ball]

I don't disagree. We're there.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Mayor Mamdani is a very smart guy. And he had to have known that having Mahmoud Khalil, not because of the First Amendment issue, which I think we all probably agree with, like, you know, people have the First Amendment rights in this country, but the other issue of what he and his group did at Columbia University, what they stand for now, he had to have known it would upset people.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and I think this is the other piece, just speaking politically, again, given that you're exactly right and it plays into the fears that people had before he was elected.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And there you have it. He had to have known it would upset people. Like, that is Jake Tapper's objection here.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, listen, that's what a protest is. At least I was under that impression.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He invited Mahmoud Khalil to dinner even though he knew it would upset Jake Tapper. That, like, also. So the smears against Mahmoud Khalil in there, he's like the sweetest, most nonviolent guy. He's not affiliated with this group anymore. And whatever affiliation he had that he's saying, like, sent death to America or whatever, he's not affiliated with that group. All they can do is, like, find some group that's affiliated with a group that he was affiliated with that at one point said something on Instagram that was like, right, some leftist over the top thing. Right? Like, that's all they. That's all they've got him. The reason that he was chosen as the mediator is that he's the kind of guy that everybody respects and that there are a lot of people that are much more further to his Left.

[Krystal Ball]

And the Trump administration was making a very different argument from what Jonah Goldberg and Jake Tapper were making in that segment. The Trump administration was making the argument that he's not a US Citizen and if you have a visa to study in the United States, they were making this argument you are undermining. I mean, it's a ridiculous argument, but you're undermining U.S. foreign policy as a noncitizen by agitating against, in an academic setting, against US Foreign policy. They were making a more charitable version of that argument as well, which would be, if you're coming in the US On a visa and what you're spending your time doing, this is how Marco Rubio would describe it, is protesting against the United States. Bad, deported. They're making a different argument, though. They're making an argument that it's not just as though he must be deported because he's undermining US Foreign policy by being anti American. They're making this argument that Mahmoud Khalil is a hate figure. And that's actually different from what the Trump. I mean, of course there was overlap.

[Saagar Enjeti]

At one point, Jonah Goldberg called him an outright apologist for terrorism. Just like. Just not like that is not true about Mahmoud Khalil.

[Krystal Ball]

Unless you have a very broad definition of what counts as being an apologist for terrorism.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right. They keep getting mad at him because I think on Ezra Klein, he said that something like October 7th was bound to happen if you continue to oppress people for many decades. And somehow that is considered to be a beyond a pale thing to say, even though it's just a basic statement about the fundamental nature of humanity and the drive for liberation and opposition to oppression. It's like that shouldn't be remotely surprising. And so the New York Times, of course, has to get in on this action. So let's start with D6 here, actually, because this is absolutely, completely insane. So an article by Dana Rubenstein here, who covers the mayor. She writes this is the lead of the article. In the days after a homemade bomb laced with metal was hurled into a highly charged protest near his official residence in Manhattan, Mayor Zoran Mamdani did not turn to his typical means of communication. There were no short form videos posted to social media about the attacks in front of Gracie Mansion, where Mr. Mamdani lives with his wife, Ramadi. There were no impassioned speeches. Mr. Mamdani chose an alternative path, two deliberate written statements. So the criticism here is that Mamdani, after people saw this news, after there was an IED thrown in front of Gracie Manchin at a protest by two like ISIS inspired terrorists. Yeah, he did not do a TikTok that he didn't do a short form flashy video like he used to do for the campaign. Since he's become mayor, I think he's done three of those videos total. Because he is a normal human being. When something tragic happens, he's not going to do a flashy TikTok about it. Now I had to read that a couple times before I thought his response kind of sucked.

[Krystal Ball]

But it was, you know, should he

[Saagar Enjeti]

have done a TikTok?

[Krystal Ball]

No, he shouldn't have done a TikTok.

[Saagar Enjeti]

But I had to read that a couple times. You notice you can put it back up again real quickly if you, if you have it. Notice that in the second sentence, notice who they mention here in front of Gracie mansion where Mr. Mamdani lives with his wife, Rama Duaji. This is the New York Times desperately wanting a piece that is weird of the story. We don't need you to tell us that he lives with his wife. Yeah, we know he lives with his wife. Secondly, what does it matter what her name is? Even let's say that the normal New York Times reader is so stupid that they don't know that a husband lives with their wife in the same home. Let's say they don't know that and they need to be told that in the second freaking sentence of the article. But they also need to know what her name is. Clearly what's happening here is this is the New York Times. They want a piece of this Instagram likes action. But they know it would debase the paper too much to put Instagram likes in a headline like Jewish Insider Free Press. They don't mind putting the phrase Instagram likes in a headline. Breaking points. We have no pride. We'll do it. But like the New York Times, they have some like some version of self respect.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, you know what this is? I mean, here's inside Baseball. When you're. I'm sure they have some type of version of WordPress that is the New York Times backend. And it will SEO optimize. Like the AI will SEO optimize.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's funny. Well, that was it though.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, because you guys use substack, so you probably don't use WordPress, but it will automatically do it.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Like how do we hook this into the story?

[Krystal Ball]

There's like a red light, yellow light, green light. And so if you know that people are Googling Ramadhuaji or even if you don't, the AI knows it and so you can like keep adding keywords and stuff to and if you put her name in you can get in the SEO. When Google News is aggregating and people are googling Ramadiwaji because people are googling and seeing it on Instagram, then they can click on the New York Times story. That's my conspiracy theory.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, for sure. They clearly want to get in that stream. Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 flexible online master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace, steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu Steady through every mission let's talk personal style. Are you a classic jeans and tee minimalist? A Louis Vuitton lover, or do you like a little bit of both? Depending on the vibe?

[Krystal Ball]

Whatever your fashion mood, you can find what feels like you on Poshmark.

[Saagar Enjeti]

With millions of new and pre loved pieces, Poshmark is your one stop style destination. From everyday wardrobe staples to vintage gems and luxury labels.

[Krystal Ball]

Inter Reformation?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Got it. Carhartt Got that too. From designer bags to streetwear, it's all there. Men's? Yes. Women's, absolutely. Kids?

[Krystal Ball]

You bet.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And the best part? You're shopping real closets from real people with real style. It's like braiding your most fashionable friend's wardrobe if you had thousands of fashionable friends. Plus, every item over $500 goes through Poshmark's authentication process so you can shop high end with total confidence. Ready to refresh your Closet? Head to poshmark.com, sign up with code podcast10 and get $10 off your first purchase. Go ahead, find your next favorite thing.

[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

now, you might disagree about this, but I'm curious. So we'll see. So this same reporter then shows up at a press conference and asks Mamdani what his message is to potential ISIS terrorists. Let's roll D5 here.

[Krystal Ball]

Hi. Hi.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So given that both of the alleged attackers at Gracie were said they were

[Krystal Ball]

inspired by isis, and given New York City's sort of perennial status as a

[Saagar Enjeti]

soft target, I was wondering if you had any words of advice to any young people who might find themselves being

[Krystal Ball]

drawn to that particular ideology.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think, first and foremost, just to make it clear to everyone that extremism and hatred of any kind will not be tolerated in our city. And

[Krystal Ball]

that is, regardless of whatever ideology

[Saagar Enjeti]

motivates any person to commit an act

[Krystal Ball]

of violence, there is no tolerance for it here.

[Saagar Enjeti]

What we want to deliver to New Yorkers is a city that is safe, is a city that believes in, in

[Krystal Ball]

the values where everyone who calls it

[Saagar Enjeti]

home is considered to be a part of it. There is no tolerance for any kind of violence within that vision of our city or the way in which we lead this city. All right, Emily, to me, that New York Times, same New York Times reporter that did that piece saying, why didn't he do a TikTok? Implying that, like, I don't know what she's trying to imply, saying, what are your words of advice for young men attracted to isis? Like, to me, that's like, what, like you think that a young man who is attracted to isis? I, I don't know how to tell her. This is not a. Is not listening to Mamdani at that point. No, they are so far gone. No, from that they think Mamdani is heretic at that point, of course, you have, like, the only way you can, from my perspective, have that view is that, oh, well, ISIS is Muslim, Mamdani's Muslim. It's all basically the same.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, no, they do it with like. I'm sure I would have to go back and look, but they do it with like, right quote, unquote, white right wing, like white nationalist, extremist, Christian, whatever, all the time too. And it's the media trying to shoehorn some type of story into like tying someone together to the big story of the day. And no, I think it's stupid. It's completely stupid. Like the idea that those radical, apparently ISIS followers who are throwing explosive devices outside Gracie Mansion at what seemed to be like fringe right wing protesters were doing it on behalf of Zahra Mamdani is bizarre. The predicate of the question is so weird and I think you're right. Reflects this very legacy media, corporate media, cartoonish understanding of how extremism works. Yeah, no, I agree with you.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And so Jake Tapper.

[Krystal Ball]

So back to Tapper.

[Saagar Enjeti]

There is a war on. Like the US And Israel are at war with Iran right now. So he dedicated one segment to Mahmoud Khalil having dinner and the wife's Instagram posts. He then did a separate segment. This is the same day that he decided to call share a post calling dropsite news, propaganda and fake news. He invited on an Israeli analyst who proudly talks about her links to Israeli intelligence to ask them, you know what, I don't want to spoil it for you here. Let's roll a little bit of D8 here. Emily, you've been talking to Iranians on the ground about the strikes and about Iranian leadership going forward. How do the Iranians you're talking to, how do they see the future unfolding in Iran? Of course, there's a lot of uncertainty and there's a lot of problems with

[Krystal Ball]

the Internet still being shut off, although there is some limited use with Starlink and limited other options. But by and large, the responses from Iranians that I've spoken to has been

[Saagar Enjeti]

overwhelmingly in favor of the United States and Israeli action on the ground. They're very happy that regime targets many

[Krystal Ball]

of them the centers of suppression of the Iranian people.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Many of these basieged IRGC bases and forces are in fact being targeted.

[Krystal Ball]

So they're happy about that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The main complaint that I'm hearing right

[Krystal Ball]

now on the ground is that they're

[Saagar Enjeti]

witnessing personally witnessing IRGC troops moving into schools and mosques.

[Krystal Ball]

I've received a plethora of photos from Iranians on the ground of exactly that,

[Saagar Enjeti]

moving both the force, the manpower and weapons and equipment into school areas. So this is something very concerning.

[Krystal Ball]

It's not new. It is a tactic of the Islamic regime and their proxy forces.

[Saagar Enjeti]

But it's definitely concerning for the future. And of course, there is some questioning about what President Trump does intend for the leadership. The united call from the Iranian people

[Krystal Ball]

on the ground is that they want the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to lead

[Saagar Enjeti]

a transition government after that go to

[Krystal Ball]

a national referendum where they will choose the system of government. But it's not clear yet where Trump

[Saagar Enjeti]

stands on that issue.

[Krystal Ball]

And we heard it in his press conference as well.

[Saagar Enjeti]

He prefers someone inside. The problem is it isn't Venezuela. It's not the same system.

[Krystal Ball]

And you have to deconstruct that system,

[Saagar Enjeti]

the irgc, in order to have genuine change and stability. Interesting stuff. So, Emily, can you imagine if Iranian state TV brought on an Iranian analyst who said he had ties to Iranian intelligence? And they asked him, how are the Israelis feeling about the Iranian bombing campaign on Israel? First of all, you'd be like, okay, this, this is, this is amazing. I'm just going to watch to see what the guy says at this point. And let's say the guy says, all the Israelis that I'm talking to, they're so grateful for the Iranian bombing. They hate Netanyahu, they hate Likud, they look forward to liberation. And they have told us that the IDF is now hiding in synagogues and in schools and in hospitals. So if you start to see news that the Iranians are bombing the civilian infrastructure, just know that our sources in Israel have told us that the IDF is hiding in the schools and synagogues and the hospitals. And so because that's what they do, they hide among the civilian population. They have their, as we know, we have their headquarters in Tel Aviv, well underground. Can you imagine, like a state like, I don't, I think Iranian state TV would not even think to run a segment like that. I don't know, to have an Iranian spy say that the Israelis love getting bombed. Maybe they would, you could get creative. Maybe they would try that.

[Krystal Ball]

It is creative. You have to give them that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So, yeah, so according to this Israeli intel linked analyst, the Iranians are very happy.

[Krystal Ball]

It's crazy how the same playbook just gets reused over and over again. I mean, we don't like, this is what was happening in the lead up to the Iraq war. It was over a longer period of time, but it was like. And it has real consequences because when you talk to people on the right now, specifically on the right, how many times you hear people citing information like that as one of the reasons that makes them more comfortable.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right, right. Like it's so grateful for it.

[Krystal Ball]

Very real world. Very real world consequences. And it's kind of gross too because in a sense it's exploiting the goodwill of a lot of Americans who, whatever you think of, you know, the leaders decisions, the decisions leaders have made over the last 20 or so years, there are a lot of normal Americans who do want to be like, quote, liberators, who have a good reason for wanting to see people free, whatever, whatever. Again, you and I look at that much more cynically than a lot of normal people do and do just want to see like people around the world be free and happy and whatever. You and I are cynical about that for Good reasons. Many people are cynical about that for good reasons. But it makes it even grosser to me because it feels exploitive of this, like, instinct among normal Americans to see people be freed from oppression. Yeah, it's gross.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, by the way, the New York Times responded. You put up D7. Speaking of debasing themselves, they were in my replies here on. On Twitter saying, they said, this is in response to the Dana Rubenstein article criticizing Mamdani for not doing a TikTok. The Times report, quote, the Times reporting covered the mayor's comments and their careful, measured nature fairly and accurately, including the departure of. From his more direct and engaged messaging strategy during his election campaign. To which I'd say, like, okay, do you think that a election campaign and a terrorist attack are the same thing? Do you think campaigning and governing are the same thing? If you think that those. If you think campaigning and a terrorist attack are different things, why would it be notable for a politician to have different responses to different things? I think the Times is very, very confused. So anyway, that's. And. And this kind of all kicked off. And we don't need to really get into this. Tapper was coming after us because Tapper

[Krystal Ball]

and lots of others.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Tapper and lots of it was a pile on. Yeah. Saying be over the October 7th sexual assault stuff.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Which it is starting to feel like kind of a lab leak moment in some quarters. And what I mean by that is that the mainstream media has never basically acknowledged that Covid came out of the Wuhan lab. There have been some articles that have gotten kind of close to it, but in general, the kind of mainstream medias they've left it at. It's probably. Probably that the bat soup that they were slinging in that wet market.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. The pangolins.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, whatever. It was some kind of weird animals that those, you know, crazy hicks out in Wuhan eat. So yet if you do a survey, huge majorities say, no, no, it came out of the Wuhan coronavirus lab. Like, we're not stupid. Like, that's where we think it came out of. I feel like this is becoming a similar thing now. There are huge swaths of the public that don't have that have not studied this question and have not looked closely at it, and they're going to believe, oh, the Guardian and the New York Times have said there was systemic sexual assault. So there was. But a massive number of people have actually looked at it, have read the actual reports and have noticed that there are not any victims who have said that it happened to them. That all of the claims that there was forensic evidence and video evidence and photographs that were made at the beginning, Those never materialized, none of that actually has emerged. And you're left with this United Nations Pramila patent report that says that there are, quote, reasonable grounds to believe that it happened. And that's true, which you've agreed with.

[Krystal Ball]

Of course. I've been here next to you for years. You have always agreed with that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Chaos and violence, of course, that alone is reasonable grounds to believe that something may have happened that is different than saying this happened. Now, what people will say is, well, it's conflict. And like people, some people, some of the victims were killed, perhaps so they

[Krystal Ball]

can't testify, and Jewish burial customs and the like.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yes. Point to that. Real challenges, which is. Which conflicts with the earlier claims that there was, you know, forensic evidence collected.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

But if you, if you look at all of the other conflicts where there has been systemic sexual assault, whether it's Rwanda or Myanmar or Sudan, there are so many named victims and so much evidence, this would be the first case of systemic sexual assault carried out in a conflict zone that left no evidence to support it. I mean, I guess there can always be a first, but this would be the only time that's ever happened. Every time it has happened before, there are people who credibly witnessed it, and there are people who were survivors of it, who talk about it and whose names you can find and who speak to human rights groups, et cetera. We don't have that here. And so they also point to this thing called the DINA Project Report, which is jointly a UK and Israel project. Go look at the DINA Project Report. It spends most of its time arguing that the previous evidentiary standards that have been applied to these types of situations should be thrown out in this case, and that eyewitness testimony, forensic evidence, et cetera, shouldn't be needed. And instead, I know this is hard to believe, but go read the report because people link to it all the time. Look at the Dana Project Report. This makes our case. Go look at the actual Dana Project Report. What they argue is that you should be able to use deduction and circumstantial evidence to make your case. So according to the Dana Project Report, which is the thing constantly being cited by people to establish that it definitively happened, they're basing their claims on deduction and circumstantial evidence. Maybe they're correct. That is different than what they're claiming. So that's, that's the point,

[Krystal Ball]

people. I mean, again, there's this giant strawman that's out there. You are denying any possibility that any of this happened and it's just never been true at all. You've been patiently going through the evidence as it was presented.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Just want some evidence.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So and so the public is not, I think the public that has paid attention to this, I think at this point gets it that that massive claims were made that were not supported at the time and haven't been supported since. And those claims were used to launch a campaign of violence that killed at least 70,000 people and has immiserated, you know, population of 2 million in pursuit of genocide and ethnic cleansing. Like that's, that's what happened.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, on this point about the public and what people believe, how they've reacted the last several years, you all at dropsite and have partnered with Zateo to produce new polling information that should give us some insight into how people are reacting in the first couple of weeks of this war with Iran.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, this is really interesting. Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 flexible online master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace, steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu Steady through every mission let's talk personal style. Are you a classic jeans and tea minimalist?

[Krystal Ball]

A Louis Vuitton lover?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Or do you like a little bit of both? Depending on the vibe, whatever your fashion

[Krystal Ball]

mood, you can find what feels like you on Poshmark.

[Saagar Enjeti]

With millions of new and pre loved pieces, Poshmark is your one style destination. From everyday wardrobe staples to vintage gems and luxury labels. Inter Reformation? Got it. Carhartt? Got that too. From designer bags to streetwear, it's all there. Men's? Yes. Women's?

[Krystal Ball]

Absolutely.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Kids?

[Krystal Ball]

You bet.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And the best part? You're shopping real closets from real people with real style. It's like braiding your most fashionable friend's wardrobe if you had thousands of fashionable friends. Plus every item over $500 goes through Poshmark's authentication process so you can shop high end with total confidence. Ready to refresh your Closet? Head to poshmark.com, sign up with code podcast10 and get $10 off your first purchase. Go ahead, find your next favorite thing. Did you know that parents rank teaching financial literacy as the toughest life skill. That's where Green Light comes in, the debit card and money app made for families. With greenlight, you can send money to kids quickly, set up chores, automate allowance and track spending with real time notifications. Kids learn how to earn, save and spend responsibly while parents have peace of

[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

Try Greenlight Risk free [e-mail] iheartra that's

[Saagar Enjeti]

greenlight.com iheart so, yeah, let's get to some of that polling. So Dropsight and Zatteo sponsored a poll that was done for data for progress. So it was out in the field from March 6 to March 8, and it interviewed more than 1,200 likely voters. So, you know, just standard, normal poll that the mainstream media likes to conduct. The difference is we ask some of the same questions that the mainstream media asks, like, you know, do you support or oppose the war in Iran? But then we also kind of went deeper into, you know, how people think about Trump's motivations for the war, what role Israel played, but also what role Epstein might have played. So we asked. So the question we asked was, when it comes to US Military action against Iran, which of the following statements regarding President Trump's personal motivations come close to closer to your view? If neither is right? So let's put up E5. And so basically the question is, was Trump motivated at least in part to attack Iran to distract from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal? Overall, by a 52 to 40 margin, the American people said yes. Epstein was at least in part motivating Trump to attack Iran. Now, independence mirrored that precisely.

[Krystal Ball]

There's a question nobody else is going to ask.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's right. Nobody else is going to ask that question. But it turns out a majority of the public agrees with it. And pollsters would never have asked this if we hadn't asked them to. So independents completely mirrored the public. So by 52 to 40 margin, independents who really swung the election for Trump, they believe that Trump was motivated at least in part to attack Iran to distract from Epstein. Now, Republicans, as you'll see in this chart here, were the least likely to believe that. That's not surprising. But still, a quarter of Republicans said, yeah, okay, I'll acknowledge that it had something to do with Epstein. For Democrats, it's basically an article of faith. So, yeah, well, of course, Democrats are 81% of the 14% believe that Epstein at least in part, played a role in driving his decision making. Emily, how would you have answered that question. And are you surprised that a solid majority, 52 to 40, that's. We're a pretty divided country. There's still division there, but at least among independents and Democrats, there's not. Like people are like, yeah, it was. Epstein played a role.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm not surprised at all. But I also would have. I'm like one of the few people that just doesn't think this had anything to do with it. Because I think the administration really wanted to attack Iran. I think they really wanted to do it. I think Israel gave them a kind of predicate or a precipitating moment, like a kick that allowed them to do it. But, yes, I think maybe not JD Vance and Tulsi Gabbard, but I do think Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and others in the administration, even though they were getting counseled by Dan Cain, maybe not a good idea. But there are people for whom this is a generational project. And Israel saying they're going to make a move. I just think that gave Republicans an easy excuse, and that's what had everything to do with it. It's like this culmination of a generational project since 1979 to get back at Iran. So that's where I'm skeptical of it. That said, it's possible that there are layers of blackmail we won't learn about for decades that had something to do with it. That actually Trump really didn't want to do it. He knew that it was against what he had said about not starting new wars. Dan Kaine was telling him it's a bad idea. So it's possible. It's possible. There is some mystery to why it happened now. But my strong inclination is that many people have wanted to do this for a long, long time and they got an excuse via Israel. So that's how I would have answered. But it's a great question.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think the lack of any coherent rationale.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, I agree.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I think fuels people's willingness to believe anything else.

[Krystal Ball]

Yep.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Because, like, give me something and I'll believe it, but if you don't give me anything, I'm gonna go looking for answers. I think you're probably right that absent Epstein, that Trump does this anyway.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

But I also think that in his mind, as he was thinking about whether or not to do it or when to do it, I bet part of it was like, well, it sure will be nice to not have to think about Epstein anymore, every single day, all day long, whether or not that drove the decision making. So that's why I Think, like, at least in part, like, yeah, okay, at least in part. Now, according to the Washington Post and the Anti Defamation League, this is an anti Semitic view. We can put up the first element from this segment. It says the conflict has also sparked a sharp rise in anti Semitic content, according to researchers from the adl, a Jewish civil rights organization. Some of it seeking to link Epstein, who was Jewish, to the conflict, reports the Washington Post. And then they quote, Oren Siegel, who's the ADL's, quote, senior vice President of Counter Extremism and Intelligence, saying, quote, pretty quickly after the conflict began, this conspiratorial rebranding of Operation Epic Fury into Operation Epstein Fury started circulating on social media platforms. Max Blumenthal, by the way, has said that he was the first to float that I don't have any evidence to the contrary.

[Krystal Ball]

All right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And then the Washington Post writes an ADL report found that the phrase, quote, Epstein Fury was mentioned more than 90,000 times by some 60,000 different accounts on X within the conflict's first three days. The same Post article says that Iran has been pushing this and that the people who believe this are kind of victims of an Iranian mis or disinformation campaign. I don't know which one it is. Iranian psyop. If that's the case.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, the Iranians have been intentionally, in their propaganda pushing this line over and over again that it's what did the Epstein class. Yeah. And the ayatollah was talking about the island before he was killed. The Ayatoll was like, ah, more will be exposed.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This disgusting island or pedophile island or whatever he called it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. And it is like a lot of the abstain emails that Dropsite has been reporting on were likely linked to an Iranian hacking operation. It is definitely part of the Iranian propaganda strip strategy to. And hey, we gave them that one on a silver platter.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yep. Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

People of the United States.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yes. The hacker outfit Handala, which is said to be linked to Iran. We can't confirm it, but we suspect that that's the case is the one that released Ehud Barak's emails, which kicked off a lot of this stuff. So that's an actual thing. So let's run through some more of the. Of the polling here. So let's do E2. Do you approve of the Trump administration's military action in Iran? Disapprove. Democrats? Shockingly not. You know, 92 to 6 against. Super divided here. Republicans 79. 19 support. Independents against it, 60 to 36. So 19% of Republicans, I think

[Krystal Ball]

People

[Saagar Enjeti]

hopeful for a kind of unified cross party opposition to war or sad to see just 19%. What do you make of that?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, I'm glad that it's not less.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's true. 19 is not nothing.

[Krystal Ball]

1 out of 5% less. Right. But among independents, that's a brutal number for the administration. 60% disapproval.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And one of the beginning of the war too.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Saagar Enjeti]

This is when you're supposed to be a riding high.

[Krystal Ball]

Great point. And one of the big questions is whether how much people care. Right. Is this something that animates people politically at least to go to the polls or to be pissed at Trump? Is it something they're like, eh, I think this is pretty clearly the. Like this is something that people will care about. Absolutely. The other thing that jumps out to me is that number of Democrats only 6% approval. I wish we could do a poll of Senate Democrats. I always wish we could do that. Yes.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Anonymous.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, a secret poll of Senate Democrats. It's the same thing with Senate Republicans in Ukraine. Right. Like if you could pull Republican voters and then pull Republican senators. If you could pull Democratic voters and then pull Democratic senators, I would love to see the discrepancy.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Other than Fetterman, they won't admit it.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

But yes. So let's do E3. This is the punishment that candidates would take if they supported it. So are you more or less likely to vote for a 2028 presidential candidate who supports war with Iran? If your Democratic primary voter said 83% less likely, independents said 61% less likely to vote for somebody who supports the war with Iran, whereas Republicans 59% more likely. Now Democrats, there basically aren't any that are other than Fetterman and like four goons over in the House who are publicly supporting the war. But it's a spectrum, you know, there's a lot of, a lot of Democrats are like they're leading with Iran, can never have a nuclear program. And then they're saying, and we need hearings to be, to have the rationale like explained to us and we need to investigate all of these things. It's like, well wait a minute, let's end the war first.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Like there aren't a whole lot of Democrats who are just like, it's time to end the war, like immediately the war's bad, stop it. We can do hearings and investigations later. That's great. But for now we need to stop the killing and stop the disruption of the entire global economy. How's that going to affect the Republican primaries?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, so that's A really good question to ask in the poll because it does get to what we were just talking about. How much does this matter? Right. Is it one of those things where it's like, I disagree with Trump or I disagree with the Republican Party, but I don't really. It's not at the high of high end of my priority list. And I think this shows that for a lot of people, it does actually affect voting patterns. 20% for Republicans. So similar to the 19% in the prior question about disagreeing or disagreeing, Trump, what we've seen, has record high levels of support from Republican voters, but they're down from his previous records. So hemorrhaging some, like, I think is around 10%. Harry Anton has gone through these numbers over the last year. That's actually interesting because that's a question of whether the MAGA core of strong, strong supporters, enthusiastic supporters, are disappointed by the president. And that gets to whether people are in the county Republican office, phone banking, putting up signs, small dollar donors, these types of things. So the 20% number actually really isn't nothing.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Makes you feel a little better.

[Krystal Ball]

It's a clear majority, as is the case with most of what Trump does, but it's not nothing in terms of the political ramifications. I bet if you ask that question among Republicans about George W. Bush In April 2003, wherever this would have been higher support among Republicans, I bet that number wouldn't have been 20%. I bet it would have been like Democrats against E4.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

So not nothing, but a good gauge of how much this matters for independents and Democrats.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Now, E4 is a very interesting question. When it comes to US military action against Iran, which of the following statements regarding President Trump's personal motivations comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right. So we asked, is Trump pursuing this war more for American interests or Israeli interests? I guess it looks like we don't have the overall on there, but the overall was 50% said American interests, 41% said Israeli interests. So a majority, we'll give them that now. Among independents, 50% said it was Israeli interests, and just 44% said American interest. So two points of this. We'll give them this. A majority of the public thinks that Trump went to war for American interests, but just 50%. There has never in American history been a war of any size, let alone this size, that a president went into. And 41% of the public thinks he did it for a foreign country. That has never happened. Like, never. Like not even close. Iraq war, people thought that Was for oil companies.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Maybe you could get 40% saying oil.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, like five years in people or two years in is probably more accurate.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Krystal Ball]

It was becoming hot on.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, exactly. Vietnam, American interests rolling back communism, like for or against the war. You didn't think that we were doing it for, like, Sri Lanka.

[Krystal Ball]

No, we were the country that was pushing proxies into these types of wars.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And so which, by the way, this

[Krystal Ball]

is my position, like, I actually, again, on this question, would have disagreed with the line that it was primarily Israeli interest. Because my point is there are a

[Saagar Enjeti]

lot of people, their own interests. Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

And there are a lot of people in the American government who are saying Israeli interests and American interests are absolutely intertwined. It's the Lindsey Graham line. And the Lindsey Grahams won this argument. The Mike Huckabees won this argument that the American and Israeli interests are one and the same. Or they'll say it's American interest vis China. And they really convinced themselves, they really believe that at the end of the day, they just wanted to bomb Iran. That's what they wanted to do.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So we put up E5. This is a related question. I was curious how much people were hearing about the attack on the Iran girls school that happened at the very early hours of the war.

[Krystal Ball]

So the question here is, have you read, seen, or heard about the attacks on a girls school in Iran last weekend? Democrats came in at 77% yes. Republicans, 60% yes. Independents, 66% yes. So across the board, most people in those three cohorts have heard about the attack on the girls school in Iran last weekend only.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

So only a quarter of Democrats hadn't. 40% of Republicans, 34% of independents. This was a super smart question to ask Ryan because it gets to the media silos that people are in. And no matter what media silo you were in, on average, you had heard about this. It probably gets to why Senator John Kennedy on Fox News yesterday came out and said it was horrible and the right thing to do is, if it was the United States, say it was horrible.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You know, I think that this poll wrapped up on Sunday night and there's been a lot more news.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday on this strike. So the number might go up. But 32% did say they'd heard nothing at all about it. So that's. So at least one in three people. And then if you combine nothing at all or little, then that got you to 55%. So then we asked. And so again, this is through Sunday night. This is before a Lot of the reporting emerged that has basically definitively concluded that it was the United States that did this. We asked if you have heard about it, who do you think was responsible for this? Either the U.S. the U.S. and Israel combined. Israel or was it Iran? And 24% of people thought it was Iran. The rest basically said it was either the US And Israel together or Israel or the United States by itself. Republicans were the only ones kind of divided on this question. So 45% of Republicans said it was Iran that attacked its own girls school, which is an idea that has been pushed kind of without evidence. But at least it. When I see stuff like that, I'm like, well, at least they're not defending attacking the girls school. They're at least saying somebody that it wasn't already false. Yeah, you know, they're lying about it, but. And I think some people honestly believe it. So 45% said it was Iran. Another 45% said it was the US and or Israel. And then 10% of Republicans said they didn't know. Everybody else, by an overwhelming majority thinks it was the US and or Israel. And that's before we got footage of the Tomahawk missile, like, hitting an IRGC base next to it. And you can see the school smoking. So, like, to see that footage, you'd have to believe that Iran hit the school and then moments later, a US Tomahawk missile hit the base right next to it, and then the school was hit again. Completely implausible. Also, if you look at the timeline, this is immediately as the war started and Iran took a little while to respond. So Iran wasn't even shooting yet. So just on a just logical basis, it's like, who hit it? Well, the people who were shooting.

[Krystal Ball]

It's a great question to ask. I mean, this is why independent media is important. Polling is one of those. Polling is one of the biggest, I think, places in news gathering where just having this idea of neutrality that is actually a bias in one direction or the other, or having the pretense of neutrality creates conventional wisdom. It's about the manufacturing of conventional wisdom. Polling so often just builds and builds in one direction. And if you don't ask other questions, you don't get answers to those types of questions. You don't test, you don't gauge the public on conversations the public may be having that you're not having in your newsroom or that you think are crazy and not worth asking about. So this was a great, great poll.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And there's one other that we could talk about because this didn't all, this wasn't all designed just to, like flatter my own preconceived notions. You know, we're generally curious about this stuff. And so we asked a question about ballistic missiles because ballistic Iran's ballistic missile stockpile has become like the new rationale that we're, that the US And Israel are using for why this war needs to be carried on. Now, I think I messed up the wording of this a little bit and I'll tell you why. So they say, how important is it to you that Iran be prevented from possessing ballistic missiles which are long range missiles capable of reaching countries like Israel? So that's how we phrase the question. I think prevented was the wrong word to use there. I should have said, how important is it to you that the US And Israel dismantle Iran's missile program? But because of the way we word it, you get just a kind of neutral perspective from the American people about whether or not they want Iran to be able to possess ballistic missiles. And they absolutely do not. And so for 54% of all Americans, it's very important that Iran be prevented from having ballistic missiles.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Which maybe Trump, if you're watching this, just say you blew up the ballistic missile program and call it a day.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Another 29% say it's somewhat important. So that means by an 83 to 13 margin, the American people think it's important that Iran be prevented from possessing ballistic missiles. Now, because I get to write the poll, I put in a question that said Iran should be allowed to have ballistic missiles because countries have a right to defend themselves, give people that option. Only 13% picked that.

[Krystal Ball]

This is.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So that's 14% said it's not a concern of the United States. Two thirds in the separate question said they should be prevented.

[Krystal Ball]

That's really, really, really interesting because it shows consistency among the people who are responding to the questions and it shows that Trump had or should have some built in consistency or built in sympathy here among the public if he made a coherent, logical, honest case for war or for a deal that disarmed Iran. I'm not saying that's possible, but you don't only have to disarm people of their ballistic missiles through military action. Hypothetically, of course, I think that would probably 100% be the case with Iran. You have to do it by force. That shows, though Trump has friendly sentiments among a big chunk of the public that still overall is unhappy with what's happened over the last 10 days. So that's a, I think it's a very. For the administration's purposes, for the political purposes, and for the moral purposes of people making these decisions. That's a very, I think, interesting contrast between the question of people agreeing with what's happened and people wanting Iran to have ballistic missiles.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. One other interesting detail, when we added in Netanyahu, the numbers got even worse for Trump rather than just saying Israel. So we said, when it comes to US Military action against Iran, which of the following statements regarding Trump's personal motivations comes closer to your view? One, Trump is more responsive to the interests of the American people than any foreign interests like those of Israel, or two, President Trump is more responsive to the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than the interests of the American people. That completely split public. So Whereas it was 50:41 on the earlier one that we were talking about, this was 47, 46. So 46% of the public said Trump is more responsive to Netanyahu than to the American people. Whereas 47% said, no, no, no, Trump's more America first than he is Netanyahu. 17% of Republicans said he's more responsive to Netanyahu. Independence, it was 50:44. So among independents, which swung the election for Trump, they feel like he's more responsive to Netanyahu than he is to the American public.

[Krystal Ball]

Fascinating.

[Saagar Enjeti]

It's crazy.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Get yourself together, guys.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Oh my gosh. Well, great poll. That's such a good idea. Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

And yeah, I love it when indie outlets do polling.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And Breaking Point should do some of that if you want, you know, become a premium subscriber. So we got the money to do it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Polling is shockingly focus groups, but we can put some polls out in the field too. BP Free 26 breakingpoints.com is the one month free if you want to support the show. And so that we can put our own polls out there. And also you can also then suggest questions like if you have any questions that we should poll, put them down in the comment section and we're looking for ideas. Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 flexible online master's program programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime. With an education built to keep pace, steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu Steady through every mission. Let's talk Personal style. Are you a classic jeans and tee minimalist, A Louis Vuitton lover? Or do you like a little bit of both? Depending on the vibe. Whatever your fashion mood, you can find

[Krystal Ball]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Krystal Ball]

Let's move on to the focus group in podcast space or media space because of course, Bill Maher and Joe Rogan have weighed in. So let's get to it. Ryan. Let's start now with this clip of Joe Rogan on a recent show. He was actually with Michael Shellenberger in conversation. This just dropped yesterday, reacting to the war in Iran F1, which just seems so insane based on what he ran on.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right?

[Krystal Ball]

He ran on no more wars and these stupid senseless wars. And then we have one that we

[Saagar Enjeti]

can't even really clearly define why we did it. Well, but he said he's against endless wars. Well, they're going against endless.

[Krystal Ball]

Listen, man, they're all endless. Well, have you ever heard Rumsfeld talk about Iraq when it first happened?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Tell me.

[Krystal Ball]

They were talking about like six weeks. Six weeks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Six weeks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, but they put. That was ground force. And I know that they've not ruled that out for me. That would be. They have. They have not. My understanding is that they have not. I thought you said. And now have now this guy is just acting. You know, he says he's not getting where they want to get in the negotiations with the Iranians. So he says, we have some leverage over you and we're going to use it.

[Krystal Ball]

So clearly, Israel wanted this.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Israel has its own motivations, I think. Yeah, but I think it's not quite accurate to say that. I just don't think. I think all the evidence shows that Trump is his own man and he is the president. And, like, literally, he couldn't even give back. He couldn't even give Elon the battery subsidy that he wanted. You know what I mean?

[Krystal Ball]

It's like, I get that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I've never seen a politician. I mean, I've never seen a politician act that independently.

[Krystal Ball]

That's.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, a president act that independently. So I'm skeptical of. I mean, I think that. I think that Rubio was sort of like, well, they were going to attack, and so we had to. You know, there's some of that. But I just think Trump is doing what he wants to do, and we should.

[Krystal Ball]

You really think it's that simple? Trump's doing what he wants to do?

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's it? Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

You don't think people are influencing him

[Saagar Enjeti]

because there's a lot of war hawks around him. Right. There's a lot of people that want

[Krystal Ball]

for a long time.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, Netanyahu's in there, but then Tucker was in there a bunch. But do you think Tucker has the

[Krystal Ball]

kind of influence that Netanyahu has?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, I mean, I guess if you just base it on the outcome, then the answer is no. But that's what I'm saying. I just think he listens to everybody, but I just don't think it's. Russians aren't behind him. Israelis. I mean, Trump is. Look what he's been through.

[Krystal Ball]

For the record, Tucker has said in his conversations with Trump. I think he said this in his recent episode with Sager, that he believes Trump did not want to do this, or, I mean, the alternative to that. Tucker knows Donald Trump much better than I do, but it's possible Trump, when he's in conversations with people, is one of those guys who's seeing it. I mean, he's a business dude. He's a pragmatist more than he's an ideologue, and he sort of makes you feel like he agrees with you. So there are different ways to.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's not the impression I get.

[Krystal Ball]

I don't believe it. I don't believe that Trump was worried about bombing Iran. I mean, I believe that Tucker is accurately representing their conversations that he, Trump, was indicating he did not want to be dragged into the war. But I don't know that I necessarily agree that he was hesitant to strike.

[Saagar Enjeti]

We, as we talked about in the last segment, the public disagrees with that. That idea. The public thinks that he is heavily influenced by Israel and particularly by Netanyahu. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe he's just doing whatever he wants to do. Rogan, correct me if I'm wrong, because I don't follow this space just closely as some people do. He's kind of held on to Trump a little longer than the rest of the podcast Bros. Is that right or no?

[Krystal Ball]

I don't think so. I feel like he was pretty early to. But he's friendly with Elon, so the Doge stuff didn't dissuade him. But around summertime, I think he was pretty openly starting to question the immigration stuff.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, that's right. Yeah. Cause he was like, what? Like, this is not how I envisioned this happening.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, right. And he's friendly with Bobby Kennedy. So he's been. I think Kenny was just back on a show. Elon was. They've both been on the show in the last couple of months. So I guess he's hung onto it in that sense. I'm sure back in June he was critical of what happened in Iran, too. So I think he's clung on maybe with some things or he's hung on some things for a while. But overall, he's definitely been willing to be a bit critical from probably the. I don't know, last summer starting on would be my guess. But, you know, he's going to. I'm sure he's going to support Kennedy for the most part. And, you know, some of those other agenda items in the administration. Bill Maher is a guy who's apparently on the left. Not even like in the pod bro world. He's all in. That doesn't really surprise anyone, I bet. But let's roll F2 here also this week.

[Saagar Enjeti]

War. Did you hear about that thing we bombed Iran. And it's going on now. Have you expected me to say I hate it? I don't. Sorry. When he puts boots on the ground. Yeah, then I'll hate it. Now I know. Too many happy Iranian Americans.

[Krystal Ball]

Sorry.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And you cannot name one horrible thing that has happened in the Middle east in the last 50 years and not connected to this fascist theocracy. They're like six degrees of. They don't eat bacon. And it's popular. I mean, Iranians all over the World are doing the Trump dance. Have you seen that, though? I just want to reiterate what I said in the monologue. I'm cautiously optimistic. Unless he puts boots on the ground, then he's going to lose me. We'll see. For now, I just don't get what liberals don't get about liberation. I see so much happiness. I see it in Venezuela. I see it here in Iran. Could we skip the part where we

[Krystal Ball]

talk about, oh, they had so many

[Saagar Enjeti]

different reasons for going to war, Regime change, and we gotta get rid of the nukes and they were supporters of terrorism. It's all of it.

[Krystal Ball]

How about this?

[Saagar Enjeti]

This was a fascist theocracy, and nothing in the Middle east was ever going to get better while they were still there fucking everything up.

[Krystal Ball]

The liberation from Mossadegh. What do liberals not get about that, Ryan?

[Saagar Enjeti]

Didn't Bill Maher lose his show for criticizing the invasion of Iraq?

[Krystal Ball]

Politically, whatever he called at the time, I thought so. Yeah, that's my impression.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So what did he not get about liberation then? Like, what is. What's going on with this guy?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, he's saying ground troops, I guess, is his red line.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So. Okay, so what he was saying is George W. Bush should have just done shock and awe for months and bombed the hell out of Iraq, and then he would have been fine with it. And then Hussein and then like Uday Hussein or Kusay Hussein, I guess, whichever one rises at the top, becomes president of Iraq and he's cool with that.

[Krystal Ball]

You just keep mowing the lawn and then.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, as they did in the 90s

[Krystal Ball]

and as they're talking about maybe the strategy going forward with Iran now. I don't know which guy, clearly.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, the guy just. He hates religion. He hates Islam in particular. Hates all religion, but Islam in particular. And he sees them as a way to. Caesar going after Iran is like fulfilling that itch that he's got.

[Krystal Ball]

So this was the Marr comment. This was in. Looks like September 2001.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Oh, that's right.

[Krystal Ball]

Six days after he said, quote, we have been the cowards. Lobbing cruise missiles. This was to Dinesta D' Souza lobbing cruise missiles from 2,000 miles away. That's cowardly. Staying in the airplane when it hits the building. Say what you want about it. It's not cowardly. That is one of the most famous moments in Phil Mars career. As my memories.

[Saagar Enjeti]

That's what he got fired for. That's right.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, it was canceled like months later. And he assumed that it was pegged to that incident, which Probably a fair assessment.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I remember that it was a. It's hard to describe the what the what the, like, feeling in the air was at the time, at that time in 2000, late 2001, early 2002, that you could not say anything like that. Even though you look back now, you're like, well, that's just a. That's just a normal. That's a logical thing to say. Like, you can disagree with what they did, but when it comes to physical courage, like, duh, obviously it takes physical courage to carry out any physical attack.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, you can say that, but you don't.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Also, people have. Yeah. And I think people confuse the word courage with valor and morality. That if you say something is courageous, that it's necessarily good, but you can be courageous and terrible too.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. I think he would have gotten canceled no matter what, but I don't think he necessarily needed to say that the US was cowardly six days after 9 11. That probably is not. You can say it's courageous for terrorists, physically courageous. To your point, Ryan. But if you couple that with the US is cowardly, that's six days after 9 11, where there was an enormous amount of bravery on.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Right. But he's talking about the people that send Cruise missiles from 2,000 miles away.

[Krystal Ball]

I know, but it's tonally. That's difficult for people who are grieving.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Maybe he wasn't reading the room.

[Krystal Ball]

Really wasn't reading the room.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Room was very, very rough at that moment.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Yeah. And again, like, we probably disagree on this. I don't think that's necessarily unreasonable. When you had American bravery on full display.

[Saagar Enjeti]

3,000 people killed.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. And American bravery on full display in New York City. And you know the Flight 93 around the country. Yeah. So anyway, that's Bill Maher Now, 2026. Bill Maher saying, I'm seeing too many happy Iranians feeling liberated. And I don't understand why the left doesn't support that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

The Shahs of Sunset are very excited.

[Krystal Ball]

Yes, we discussed this. You haven't watched Shahs of Sunset in years. Nor have I. But they are. I did see Reza from Shahs of Sunset was excited.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Least shocking thing ever.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that'll do it for us. Today's edition. Of course, we're ending on a bravo note. I don't know what else we would do. Today's edition of Breaking Points. Remember this year, last week, to get on. Get in on that free trial promo code BP free 26. That is a free month of the show. You get the show the way that we think it's really meant to be watched, which is in one fell swoop, one chunk, no commercial breaks right in your inbox. Nice and early. The clips come out, of course, later, but you also get the second half of the Friday show every week that is totally paywalled. That's where we do AMAs and do get access to more AMAs and the like. So please do go ahead, support the journalism that we're doing here at Breaking Points. Get a free month trial if you like it, stick around. We're so excited to have so many new folks because this is an important time for independent media.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yep. Yes indeed. All right, we'll see you soon.

[Krystal Ball]

Sounds good. Foreign

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[Krystal Ball]

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