3/11/26: Trump Freaks Over Strait Of Hormuz, Mearsheimer Says US Losing War, Iran To Hit Israel Hard

Summary

---

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode Date: March 11, 2026
Title: Trump Freaks Over Strait Of Hormuz, Mearsheimer Says US Losing War, Iran To Hit Israel Hard

---

Episode Overview

In this dynamic episode of Breaking Points, hosts Krystal Ball and Ryan Grim delve into the intense escalation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on U.S.-Iran tensions, the strategic chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, and mounting domestic political confusion. They pull in exclusive polling, expert analysis (notably from John Mearsheimer and Jeremy Scahill), and firsthand reporting to question whether the U.S. and its allies have any coherent strategy—and what the deeper implications could be for global stability, energy markets, and the fate of the Trump administration. Themes of mission-drift, the true costs of war, and media distortion run throughout.

---

Key Segments and Insights

---

1. Strait of Hormuz Crisis & Trump Administration’s Response

[08:00 - 14:50]

• Report of Potential Iranian Mining:

  • U.S. intelligence indicates Iran may be deploying naval mines. Estimates of Iranian mine stock: 2,000–6,000.
  • Krystal: “Not helpful when there’s muddled information about what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz.” [07:29]
  • Trump issues a severe warning, promising unprecedented “military consequences” if any mines are confirmed.

• Markets and Misinformation:

  • Dramatic moment as U.S. Energy Secretary mistakenly claims a U.S. naval escort of a tanker, prompting wild market swings, only to retract the statement minutes later.
  • Ryan: “Many millions of dollars changed hands, and the U.S. lost whatever little, tiny credibility it had left.” [13:48]

• Senator Chris Murphy’s Frustration:

  • Murphy publicly criticizes administration’s utter lack of planning, warning of long-term oil price spikes:
  • “Right now they don’t know how to get it safely back open, which is unforgivable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.” [10:33, quoting Murphy]

• Tactical Realities:

  • Oil and fertilizer supply at risk. About 35% of normal oil traffic still transits the strait, but much through alternative risky routes (pipelines, untracked tankers).
  • Ryan explains: “If the Houthis said no, actually, you’re not doing this anymore... you might be able, and they don’t hit these pipelines, you may be able to trickle through enough oil to keep prices at a place the global population can continue to stomach... Maybe.” [21:34]

---

2. Domestic Political Backlash & War Objectives Unclear

[03:41 - 07:12, 25:15 - 33:25]

• Partisan Theatre:

  • Republicans (e.g., Tom Cotton) float “declare victory and exit” rhetoric as oil/gas prices rise and the U.S. lacks a clear exit plan.
  • Democrats critical but passive: “Democrats... are very critical of the war, but don’t seem to be doing anything to stop it. Now they’re talking about, ‘We need to have hearings about the purpose of the war.’... How about we end the war and then we could talk about it?” – Ryan [04:10]
  • Representative Thomas Massie’s idea: force a declaration of war vote to get Congress on record.

• Objective Confusion and Mearsheimer’s Analysis:

  • John Mearsheimer argues the U.S. is “not winning” and can’t find an off-ramp.
  • “If we had decisively defeated Iran... then you can say the war is over with. We are the winner, and we’re going to impose terms on the loser. But that’s not what’s happened here.” – Mearsheimer, via Jeremy Scahill [25:15]
  • The administration can’t articulate actual objectives: sometimes surrender, sometimes regime change, sometimes missile or nuclear programs. Ryan: “The messaging has been all over the place, but saying... we’re at an inflection point where either the administration decides to cut bait and define down what the objectives were, what victory looks like, or put, as Blumenthal said, troops on the ground in Iran.” [29:16]
  • Chris Murphy: in classified briefings, planners contradicted Trump, denying regime change or nuclear objectives.

---

3. Economic & Strategic Fallout

[09:21 - 21:55, 33:31 - 36:11]

• Infrastructure Vulnerabilities:

  • U.S. minesweepers are out of commission (“decommissioned because they were too old”), putting any operation at further risk [09:21].
  • Oil pipelines now critical, but vulnerable: “You can hit a pipeline... If the Houthis [join in], which they haven’t yet, then you’re talking about a whole different ballgame.” – Ryan [21:19]

• Market Instability:

  • Energy Secretary’s false statement about tanker escort causes significant oil price swings—participants “refreshed the tweet” only to see it was deleted and markets reversed.

• Western Strategy Critiqued:

  • Krystal: “If they’re trying to come up with some type of deal about the future, what is the long term prospect of holding Oil Island?... None of it makes sense.” – on Fox & Friends’ floated plans to seize strategic islands [16:30]
  • The “strategy”—if any—appears to be lawn-mowing: attack, destroy, leave; repeat. “We’re just going to do nation destruction... endless war.” – Ryan [32:07]

---

4. Iranian Perspective & The Mearsheimer-Scahill Segment

[41:13 - 60:52]

• Iran’s Will & Strategy:

  • Jeremy Scahill shares exclusive conversations with Iranian officials.
  • Iran rejects ceasefire on U.S. terms, aiming for a “second phase” to the war.
  • “Iran wants to keep fighting so that the entire world, including the United States, understands that if you think you can do this to Iran every four months... you have another thing coming.” [42:11]
  • Iran’s “Mosaic Defense”: delegation, redundancy, and preparedness for decapitation strikes.
  • After leadership assassinations, the Iranian military and government were able to function on “autopilot,” launching pre-designated strikes, and now continue with adaptive strategy [46:00].

• Regional and Global Implications:

  • Iran feels it’s shifted focus from Gulf states to Israel, softening U.S. positions and sending warnings.
  • Gulf states “were totally and completely shocked by what happened” and are quietly seeking to distance themselves from U.S. military action as public sentiment turns against them [52:34].

• Hezbollah & Israel:

  • Hezbollah’s entry exposes Israeli miscalculations; their capacity remains “intact,” causing evacuations from Israel’s north. Iran threatens further escalation if U.S. and Israel continue targeting civilian infrastructure.

• War of Attrition, not Decisive Win:

  • “If the war drags on and Iran continues to show that it's not just... propaganda, their claims about their enduring capacity, it’s gonna tilt very heavily in favor of the smaller side. It's ultimately what caused the U.S. to withdraw from Afghanistan... militarily lost the Vietnam War... Iraq...” – Jeremy Scahill [56:57]
  • Iranian officials now discussing potential Security Council involvement, but only if real guarantees are possible. Their ultimate aim: inflict so much pain that the U.S./Israel cannot repeat a strike easily.

---

5. Notable Quotes

• John Mearsheimer (via Scahill):

  • “The war is not going well for the United States and President Trump...can't find an off ramp. Nobody can tell a plausible story about how this war ends.” [25:15]

• Ryan Grim:

  • “Many, many, many millions of dollars changed hands, and the US lost whatever little, tiny credibility it had left.” [13:48]

• Jeremy Scahill:

  • “They [U.S. and Israel] dramatically underestimated Iran's will to fight, overestimated the potential for a domestic uprising, and dramatically underestimated Iran’s weapons capacity.” [44:52]

• Chris Murphy (paraphrased):

  • “Planners say the war goals do not involve destroying Iran's nuclear program... regime change is also not on the list... So what are the goals? Destroying lots of missiles and boats and drone factories... but when you stop bombing, they restart production—endless war.” [30:20]

• Krystal Ball:

  • “It's not the priority of the American people...[to] be bogged down in a never-ending conflict because of a policy choice.” [33:08]

---

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Strait of Hormuz coverage & Trump reactions: [07:29 – 14:50]
• Mearsheimer & war objectives discussion: [25:15 – 33:25]
• Jeremy Scahill analysis & Iranian perspective: [41:13 – 60:52]
• Hezbollah and Israel quagmire: [54:21 – 56:38]

---

Memorable Moments

• The Energy Secretary’s market-moving Twitter blunder [13:06 – 14:20]
• Fox & Friends’ suggestion the U.S. “take” an Iranian oil island met with incredulity [15:21 – 16:30]
• Jeremy Scahill: Iran’s “Mosaic Defense” plan allowed for uninterrupted retaliatory strikes, even after decapitation attempts [46:00]

---

Episode Conclusion

This episode underscores the utter incoherence and lack of transparency guiding U.S. strategy in the escalating Middle East conflict. With clear expert consensus (Mearsheimer, Scahill) that the war is unwinnable on Trump’s terms, mounting economic and political risks at home, and Iran and its allies demonstrating resilience and adaptability, the show raises hard questions about how, and if, this war can end on favorable terms for Washington. The hosts’ sharp analysis, peppered with dry humor and a healthy skepticism of both mainstream media and official narratives, provides listeners the analytical toolkit to cut through the chaos and propaganda.

For further reporting, visit jobsitenews.com and breakingpoints.com.

---

Transcript

[Host/Announcer]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human There's a difference between liking a house and actually getting it. Redfin is built to make up that difference and close the gap between finding and owning the home for you. Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents, so when you find a home you love, you're not a step behind when it comes to making an offer. That means less watching great homes disappear and more focus on the one you'll call home. Redfin helps turn saved listings into real addresses. The get [e-mail] own the dream military

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 flexible online master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu steady

[Host/Announcer]

through every mission when your schedule sounds like this. Are you kidding me? An oil change is the last thing you have time for. So drive into Take five and let our techs change your oil. Check your tires, top off your fluids and have you back on the road pit stop fast. All while you stay in your car. No putting your entire schedule on hold. No upsells, no problem. So you can get back to your to do list or not. Find your nearest [e-mail] take5 the stay in your car 10 minute oil change

[Krystal Ball]

hey guys, Sager and Crystal here.

[Host/Announcer]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Krystal Ball]

This is the only place where you

[Ryan Grim]

can find honest perspectives from the left

[Krystal Ball]

and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Host/Announcer]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we

[Jeremy Scahill]

hope to see [e-mail] all right, good

[Ryan Grim]

Wednesday morning and welcome to Breaking Points. If you're new here, I'm not Crystal, she's not Sagar. We mix it up a little bit

[Krystal Ball]

and you're not Sagar.

[Ryan Grim]

I'm definitely not Sagar.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm not Krystal.

[Ryan Grim]

Okay, Done. We've got that covered. So if you're if you know anybody that you think might like this show. We're doing one month free. Mm. It's BP free 26. Go to breakingpoints.com, put in that promo code, and you can get the premium version free. Now, everything we do, basically, except for a little, you know, a few things on the side, is free to the public anyway. But you get it earlier, you get it ad free, you get it all in kind of one, you know, alert in your inbox so that you don't have to keep, you know, fighting with YouTube about what they're gonna recommend that you watch after.

[Krystal Ball]

It's really. It's the way the show's meant to be watched. We got some flow going. So, yeah, if you don't like a

[Ryan Grim]

segment, you just skip right past it.

[Krystal Ball]

This is the last.

[Ryan Grim]

Going on a little long.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. You could just scrub.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

But this is the last week to claim the trial, so BP free 26 free. The BP 26, we don't know who they are, but BP free 26. Make sure you go over there this week, claim that we appreciate everyone being here. Second half the Friday shows, those are for premium subs only. Welcome. Really welcome. We're so happy to see so many new faces, and we have a lot to talk about today. So we're going to start with updates from Iran and the broader Middle East. Just basically, Secretary Hagzhow said yesterday, this is going to be the most intense day of the war. And that proved, unsurprisingly, to be true.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, from both sides. My job site colleague, Jeremy Scahill will be joining us to talk about some of the reporting that. That he's done. He was supposed to be here. Last week. He bumped us for an interview he was doing with the deputy foreign minister. Luckily, we had two people scheduled, so it was. Okay, fine, Jeremy, we'll let you go this time. I think if you've been following Jeremy's reporting, you have known ahead of time, sometimes by weeks, where this is going. So we're going to talk to him about what he's been seeing the last few days and what he sees coming over the next few days, particularly as in Washington, you're starting to see Republicans suggest that we declare victory and wrap this up. Tom Cotton said that yesterday, whereas Democrats, kind of fitting with the reporting that we've been doing previously, are very critical of the war, but don't seem to be doing anything to stop it. Now they're talking about, we need to have hearings about the purpose of the war. What that should do it. How about we end the war and then we could talk about it. But like, it feels like they, they like the fact that it's hurting Republicans so much.

[Krystal Ball]

They love it. They love it. I liked the idea that Thomas Massie had to actually just put a declaration of war on the floor that he would vote against to see who would vote at the end of the day for it or against it.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. Anybody feel like voting on this?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, it's just a thought. Lots going on in that, in that region, obviously, that we're going to get to some new sound bites from John Mearsheimer that are really worth thinking about, taking some time to pause. And you know, we're almost what are we to a week and a half into this thing right now. And it's true, as Ryan said, it's the chatter is now should we from Republicans just declare victory? Trump is certainly talking that way. And you see perception, history being written in real time. So important to kind of stop on that point. We're going to talk about some of the tactical questions too, Ryan.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes. And then CNN and the New York Times, we're calling this block Tapper, have absolutely lost their minds over a combination of the way that they're approaching this war and the fact that Zoran Mamdani, I guess, refuses to resign. Like, I don't know exactly what their, what their problem is, but they have gone so far overboard, it's utterly insane to the point where we actually, I think, have to talk about it. Also, we did some our own polling. We put a poll out into the field. Drop site Zatteo, drop site Zetteo put this into the field. We're going to have some exclusive results from that. As you can imagine, we did not ask the kinds of polling questions that the mainstream media would have asked. One of them we asked was, do you believe that Donald Trump was motivated, at least in part to, to go to war with Iran to cover up the Jeffrey Epstein scandal? If you're watching this program, you won't be, you might be pleasantly surprised that you are in the majority of the country in believing that. Yes, he did. So it's not just people who watch this program, like the average American believes that that's the case. We'll unpack that, get into the precise numbers and a lot of other interesting questions that we asked too.

[Krystal Ball]

You guys asked on a scale of 10 to 10, how much do you love this war? I thought that was a creative one.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. Have you exercised your right to the BP free 26 breakingpoints.com premium subscription and the results not enough Americans yet have.

[Krystal Ball]

Stay tuned.

[Ryan Grim]

Make sure you do that. Then we're gonna talk about some of the podcasters for whom this is a breaking point. Like cheese, like they cannot abide anymore.

[Krystal Ball]

Rogan among them for whom it is not a breaking point. Bill Maher.

[Ryan Grim]

Bill Maher. He's fine with this.

[Krystal Ball]

So we have some dueling clips of Rogan Mar and we're going to dive into all of it. So let's start now with we call it Straight Gate. Ryan, the Strait of Hormuz where there was some conflicting reports about what the hell is going on in the Straight of Hormuz yesterday. Ryan, critical question. Not helpful when there's muddled information about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz. So let's start with a one. We can put this up on the screen. A report from C News is Jennifer Jacobs, who said U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each. While Iran's mine stock isn't publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian made variants, according to Jim LaPorta at CBS News. Ryan, give me your reaction to this bit of info.

[Ryan Grim]

Well, first of all, can you imagine being the sailor tasked with this? Like, that's like. And Trump, Trump responded by saying if Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed immediately. If for any reason mines were placed and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction. President DONALD J. Trump so the US has been striking some boats which they say were laying mines. Problem for them, you know, once they lay their mines that, you know, their mission is accomplished. Even if most of the sailors who are sent out on that mission probably expect that the chances of them coming back is slim. There was also footage of our minesweepers. Did you see this?

[Krystal Ball]

No.

[Ryan Grim]

Pulling into the dock in Philadelphia because they were being decommissioned because they were too old. Like really? You gotta be kidding me.

[Krystal Ball]

That sounds right.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, sounds absolutely perfect. So this is just upping the cost of trying to move through the Strait of Hormones because Trump's strategy this week has been to basically chant the names of the captains like you can do this, guys. Come on. That's his strategy. Like Tom, Tom, Tom, Tom. You just barrel right through, man up, have the courage to do it. So what if the insurers are not there? We've got the Export Import Bank. They'll get you. Or the finance corporation, Development Finance Corporation. We got your back. Don't worry. When has the US Ever betrayed one of our commitments, you know, made hastily in a time of war? We got you covered. And so some ships are turning off their transponders and moving through. But now, and if the Iranians don't see them coming through, a lot of them, some of them are making it through. If you don't know where the mines are.

[Krystal Ball]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

It changes the calculation again.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and let's put this Chris Murphy post up on the screen. This is A2C Senator Murphy yesterday posted at night and on the Strait of Hormuz, they had no plan. Referring to the administration, I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the strait. But suffice it to say right now they don't know how to get it safely back open, which is unforgivable because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable. And Ryan, obviously, with the Strait of Hormuz, the oil prices are on the line. You have fertilizer, which a huge chunk of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz. So right now in Playbook this morning, I opened it up right before I got here. And of course, you have this internal debate within the administration about politically how long it is tenable for oil and gas prices to be going up like this, how long they think they could get away with three to four weeks.

[Ryan Grim]

Right.

[Krystal Ball]

And we're coming up on the end of week two here. Democrats are saying who thinks that that's

[Ryan Grim]

what the Trump administration, that's, that's what

[Krystal Ball]

the sources close the administration were telling Politico this morning. Also that one source told Politico they were surprised when they saw that $120 barrel spike that caught them off guard. So sort of goes to what Chris Murphy is saying here, which is that there wasn't quite a plan and there was a lack of understanding or diligence about understanding exactly what was going to happen in the Strait of Hormuz after the strikes initially.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And the, you know, we have some strategic petroleum reserve that we can release. The G7 have a, have their own emergency kind of global reserve that they're planning on releasing. And so there's that option the other option is for the US to start accompanying ships, protecting them as they move through the Strait of Hormuz. And you had an absolutely incredible moment yesterday in the financial markets where the US Energy Secretary. We can put up this next element. Chris Wright, he comes out and he announces that the U.S. navy has successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait. So if you knew that he was about to announce that, or if you knew that that had happened and you bought oil futures, you made an enormous amount of money over the next five minutes. Well, sorry, you lost an enormous amount of money if you owned oil. If you were short oil, you did great. Because the.

[Krystal Ball]

I thought you were going to say if you were, like, specific on Poly Market.

[Ryan Grim]

Right, But. Well, that too, but. So oil prices crashed because, like, oh, amazing. So the Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The cavalry has arrived. The battle is saved. The world oil supply is secured. Five minutes later, he deletes the tweet. Imagine being the traitor who's, like, refreshing that tweet. It's like this tweet has been deleted. You're like, oh, God. Because as it turns out, it was either a lie or it was untrue. We need to get to the bottom of this.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Many, many, many millions of dollars changed hands, and the US Lost whatever little, tiny credibility it had left. So Levitt, Carolyn Levitt was asked about this, and let's get her response.

[Krystal Ball]

I was made aware of this post. I haven't had a chance to talk to the Energy Secretary about it directly. However, I know the post was taken down pretty quickly, and I can confirm that the US Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time. Though, of course, that's an option the President has said he will absolutely utilize if and when necessary, at the appropriate time.

[Ryan Grim]

Okay, so never mind. That did not happen.

[Krystal Ball]

This is a Cabinet secretary.

[Ryan Grim]

This is a Cabinet. This is the Energy Secretary.

[Krystal Ball]

Energy Secretary.

[Ryan Grim]

It'd be one thing if the HUD secretary, like, heard a little gossip and tweeted that. Right, The Energy Secretary.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, that's. That's.

[Ryan Grim]

That's the guy who would know that.

[Krystal Ball]

Also the umbrella nuclear policy organization. So not looking great if you're just firing off tweets and deleting them about fragile geopolitical questions.

[Ryan Grim]

And we're going to talk later with Jeremy about the. Either the lack of a strategy or the way that the strategy is unfolding. But for a glimpse into how completely bankrupt the. The US Approach is right now, you've got Fox and Friends buddies just throwing Out Random, random plays. Let's take an island and then control the oil. Let's play a five here.

[Jeremy Scahill]

Love to see him take Carg island, that oil island.

[Ryan Grim]

He'd be just like Venezuela. We control their oil. 90% of their oil goes to this little island. The President talked about it in a 1988 interview and I think he should grab it. And I think that gets to the folly that was at the heart of this entire operation Epstein Fury to begin with, which was it's going to be like Venezuela. And so it went great. We went in, we got Maduro and then they just handed us the oil and it was amazing. And so they keep trying to reconfigure what is obviously a completely different situation into that. And I think they're looking for something that they can do and then declare victory.

[Krystal Ball]

But yeah, I think that's right.

[Ryan Grim]

But doing that is. Will be that. I mean, do you have any thoughts on that? That would be a bloodbath. Holding it would be like quite difficult. I don't think it's serious, but I haven't thought any of this was serious and they're. And they've tried to do it anyway.

[Krystal Ball]

So I thought I was totally serious. From Brian Kilmeade.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, he's being serious, like right.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, right. But that's to your point, like if you, if you don't think certain, it's hard to tell what's serious when it's being like tossed out. Between Fox and Friends and the President. We just put the President's tweet about the truth, social about the minds up on the screen. He's like, if for any reason the mind like you never know what he knows and what he's serious about, what he's not serious about. So you have no choice but to take it all seriously. And I think that's exactly what, what the right, the right position is. So. Oh, he's joking. Well, we're in war and people are dying. So take him seriously. I agree with you. I think that would be a nightmare. And the long term, what does that look like? If they're trying to come up with some type of deal about the future, what is the long term prospect of holding Oil Island? As Brian Kilmade put it, what is the plan for a year from now, for 10 years from now, if you're holding Oil island, how is that going to make things significantly better? How is it going to make the situation less tense? I mean it just. None of it makes sense.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, I just think that would be very difficult. For them to actually hold it, but.

[Krystal Ball]

Right, exactly.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And so going to the, to the question of.

[Krystal Ball]

Because this is, it's basically putting, since we're talking about mines, it's putting like a tripwire. Yeah. Right in the middle of the hole.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes, exactly. So the question really is, can Iran withstand the bombardment that they're taking and continue to fire their own ballistic missiles longer than the US can withstand the cracking of the foundations of the global economy? And that's the key question. And the question underneath that is, what happens to the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz? So we have some, some actual data that's emerging that sheds a little light on this, and I don't think would give comfort necessarily to either side, but it's important to have the facts here. So you can put up this drop site post from Twitter. The point they're making here is that about 35% of the oil that normally goes through the Strait of Hormuz is still going through. But let's break that down a little bit. So normally you were averaging about 15 million barrels per day. Now of that, 1.2 million was Iranian, and that is still getting through, and it's mostly going to China. So you're actually, what you're concerned about is about, you know, 13.8 million barrels per day. So what's going on with that? So According to that, 5.5 million is still moving. Now, you'd want to subtract the 1.2 from there to get what actually matters, because the oil that Iran is shipping to China is not foundational to the Western kind of capital markets. So that gets you down to what. So that's 3.3 million barrels a day still going through. So what's happening is that Saudi Arabia is trying to move a lot of their oil through a pipeline and then out the Red Sea. So they're saying more than 2 million barrels per day are currently moving toward, toward the Red Sea. So that's. So if they can't get it out through, through the Strait of Hormuz, they're going to move it that way. The UAE is, is trying to use the Fujairah pipeline to move about 1.8 million barrels per day. And then there's about 500,000 barrels per day from tankers that are turning off their trackers and kind of sneaking through. So 500,000, it's not much like, that's not, that's, that's not enough to service the global economy. But if, if they can move many millions through these pipelines, now the problem comes sets in. You can hit a pipeline. If, if we, if we go up the escalation ladder to those kinds of strikes, you can certainly hit a pipeline and take that right off line. And the Houthis have not really gotten involved yet. So if the Houthis said no, actually you're not doing this anymore, which is interesting because remember, again, we're telling you the truth here. We've told you from the beginning that the Houthis are supported by Iran, but are independent actors. They make their own decisions in the US The Western press say no, they're just the handmaidens of Iran. They do exactly what Iran tells them. Right this moment confirms it. Like, if they did exactly what Iran wants them to do, would they not be like launching tons of ballistic missiles at their allies and shutting the Red Sea down? And they're not yet. They're talking about. No, they're strategizing. We may see them enter the fray, but they haven't.

[Krystal Ball]

It's also though, interesting, because what is Iran right now? Like, what is the government of Iran? Is it acting in total concert? Is there. It's, it's, it's hard to know what would be getting telegraphed. But no, I mean, I see what you're saying. I just.

[Ryan Grim]

So if they come in and shut down the Red Sea, then, then you're talking about a whole different ball game. But if they don't, you might be able, and they don't hit these pipelines, you may be able to trickle through enough oil. Right, to keep prices at a place where the global population can continue to stomach the attack.

[Krystal Ball]

Maybe. Right. And I don't know, it's just with this Trump administration now talking about how they think they have a three to four week like landing strip, basically it does go to why we start hearing them chirp now about declaring mission accomplished and victory. They're obviously very, very, very nervous about this. And they should be because of everything that was just laid out.

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 flexible online master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime. With an education built to keep pace steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45 on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu. Steady through every mission.

[Host/Announcer]

Let's talk personal style. Are you a classic jeans and tee minimalist, A Louis Vuitton lover or do you like a little bit of both? Depending on the vibe. Whatever your fashion mood, you can find what feels like you on Poshmark. With millions of new and pre loved pieces, Poshmark is your one stop style destination. From everyday wardrobe staples to vintage gems and luxury labels into reformation. Got it. Carhartt got that too. From designer bags to streetwear, it's all there. Men's, yes. Women's, absolutely. Kids? You bet. And the best part? You're shopping real closets from real people with real style. It's like braiding your most fashionable friend's wardrobe if you had thousands of fashionable friends. Plus, every item over $500 goes through Poshmark's authentication process so you can shop high end with total confidence. Ready to refresh your Closet? Head to poshmark.com, sign up with code podcast10 and get $10 off your first purchase. Go ahead, find your next favorite thing.

[Krystal Ball]

Busy work weeks can leave you feeling drained. Prolon's five day fasting mimicking diet works at the cellular level to rejuvenate you from the inside out, providing real results that include fat focused, sustainable weight loss with no injection needed. Next Gen builds on the original prolon with 100% organic soups and teas, a richer taste and ready to eat meals. Developed at USC's Longevity Institute and backed by top medical centers, Prolon supports biological age reduction, metabolic health, skin appearance, fat loss and energy. Get 15% off plus a $40 bonus gift when you subscribe at prolonlife.com iheartra that's prolonlife.com iheart let's get some Mearsheimer.

[Ryan Grim]

Let's do it.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's talk about Professor John Mearsheimer's recent remarks about, as we were just saying, who's really winning? What does winning look like? Crystal flagged this moment for us. A bunch of senators, by the way, went into a briefing yesterday on the war. That's where Chris Murphy came out and put out the tweet that he referred to in the last block. We were discussing the Strait of Hormuz. We we have some audio video of Senator Blumenthal also emerging from that briefing. Before we get to it, let's take a listen here to John Mearsheimer to sort of set the table as to what's been accomplished, quote unquote accomplished so far.

[Jeremy Scahill]

B1 it's quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States and that President Trump, I think, would like to put an end to it. And the problem that he faces is he can't find an off ramp. I think nobody can tell a plausible story about how this war ends. If we had decisively defeated Iran the way we decisively defeated both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War II, then you can say the war is over with. We are the winner, and we're going to impose terms on the loser.

[Ryan Grim]

But that's not what's happened here.

[Jeremy Scahill]

They haven't won anything approximating a decisive victory. And in a very important way, the Iranians have an incentive to continue the war, to turn it into a protracted war of attrition, and they have the means to do that.

[Krystal Ball]

So obviously, definitions of what that means have been floating around from this administration itself. Last week, Caroline Levitt had to come out and enumerate the list of objectives that the administration had in Iran because so many different things were floating around from different members of the administration, which is normal enough on a day that ends in y, a lot more egregious when you are at war, obviously. So Donald Trump has said he wants unconditional surrender. Ryan, he said it's about missiles, it's about nukes. So some of the challenge here politically for the administration, but also just for a normal American trying to determine why seven lives have already been lost. We're looking at new numbers about how many people have been injured. Actually, why don't we just go ahead and roll B3 here? I'm going to jump ahead because we have some new information about this.

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

Reuters has reported that about 150 U.S. service members have been injured so far. Can you confirm that number and elaborate on that?

[Krystal Ball]

I can't confirm the exact number. I know it's within that ballpark. But I would defer you to the Pentagon for a specific number of wounded or injured thus far. So as people are trying to determine what the United States is doing, why, what is being sacrificed, why? Here is Richard Blumenthal, B2, talking about what he took from a briefing on Capitol Hill yesterday.

[Ryan Grim]

For senators, my questions have been unanswered and I will demand answers because the American people deserve to know. And I guess I am most concerned about the threat to American lives of potentially deploying our sons and daughters on the ground in Iran. We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here. And there is also, as disturbingly as anything else, the specter of active Russian aid to Iran putting in danger American lives, literally. Russia seems to be aiding our enemy actively and intensively with intelligence and perhaps with other means. And China also may be assisting Iran.

[Krystal Ball]

So Blumenthal's a Russia hawk. We'll get to that point in just a moment. But this is ran the multiple layers. You have the politics and the substance, and you have a senator coming out of briefing saying any of the potential objectives, not even able to zero in on like one of the administration's objectives, because we're overall objective, because the messaging has been all over the place, but saying, you know, here's my interpretation of it, Ryan. We're at an inflection point where either the administration decides to cut bait and define down what the objectives were, what victory looks like, or put, as Blumenthal said, troops on the ground in Iran to actually tackle substantively whether it's the nuclear question, the missile question. I mean, I was talking to Brian Dean Wright, he's a former CIA guy, on my show the other day, and he was like, well, you could put special forces on the ground to pull the nuclear material out of the dirt. Well, that's boots on the ground. That's boots on the ground. So it does feel like an inflection point right now.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes. And so Senator Chris Murphy also came out of that meeting and did a Twitter thread that would make him add some of this in post. And he said, he said that it's totally incoherent what they're hearing internally of what they're hearing in these classified briefings. And it contradicts and conflicts with the rationales that were given to the extent that any were given at all ahead of the war. So one of the things he said, the war goals do not involve destroying Iran's nuclear program. You're like, what he writes, this is surprising since Trump says over and over this is a key goal. So behind the scenes, planners are saying, no, it's not actually about the nuclear program. Second, he says they confirmed, quote, regime change is also not on the list. So that was the other thing that we were told explicitly was an objective here. So then he then the way he frames it was, so they're going to spend hundreds of billions of your taxpayer dollars, get a whole bunch of Americans killed, and a hard line regime, probably a more anti American, hardline regime, will still be in charge. Then he says, okay, so what are the goals? He says, it seems primarily destroying lots of missiles and boats and drone factories. But the question that stumped them, what happens when you stop bombing and they restart production? They hinted, this is the planners, they hinted at more bombing, which is, of course, as he says, endless war. And then on The Strait of Hormuz, as we talked about in the last segment, they had no plan. So that does actually fit with what we've been thinking about as the actual strategy in place here, which is not to liberate the Iranian people, has nothing to do with the nuclear program. We're not doing nation building anymore because the public has said we don't want to do nation building anymore, so we're just going to do nation destruction. We're going to nation unbuild this thing. We're going to try to cause as much damage as we possibly can, then we're going to stop. And the second that they try to start rebuilding anything, we're going to attack them again. That explains why the Iranians feel like they have to take a huge cost from us so that we don't think that that's actually an okay thing to do to another country, to just keep mowing the lawn, to just kill them whenever we feel like it for as long as we feel like it.

[Krystal Ball]

By the way, also not a strategy that is going to fly with the American people in the long term. I mean, well, it's not, let's say it may be electorally palatable because people are suffering at home and have a million different priorities, but it's not the priority of the American people.

[Ryan Grim]

It's so expensive too.

[Krystal Ball]

It's so expensive. But to be bogged down in a never ending conflict because of a policy choice. No.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

Most people would, if you explain that, most people would be like, why are we doing this? Why are we doing this after the last 20, 30 years, why are we doing this?

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And so Pete Hegseth, our war secretary, as he calls himself, again, much more accurate.

[Krystal Ball]

You heard it here first.

[Ryan Grim]

There you go. Not a declaration of war. He's our military operations secretary, I guess the Department of Military Operations, saying that we are only intensifying the attacks. Let's roll. Hegseth, for example, today will be yet

[Jeremy Scahill]

again our most intense day of strikes inside Ukraine.

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

Iran, the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes.

[Ryan Grim]

Intelligence more refined and better than ever. So that's on one hand.

[Jeremy Scahill]

On the other hand, the last 24

[Ryan Grim]

hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they've been capable of firing yet.

[Jeremy Scahill]

Just the bifurcation, just the trend lines that we talked about.

[Ryan Grim]

On our first briefing, Steve Witkoff was asked about the claims that Russia is helping Iran. Let's roll some Witkoff here. Yesterday on the call with the President, the Russians said that they have not been sharing.

[Jeremy Scahill]

That's that's what they said. So, you know, we can.

[Ryan Grim]

We can take them at their word.

[Jeremy Scahill]

But they did say that.

[Ryan Grim]

And yesterday morning. And yesterday morning, independently, Jared and I had a call with Ushakov, who reiterated the same. So I, you know, that's a better question for the intel people, but let's hope that they're not sharing.

[Krystal Ball]

So how do you see this ending this war?

[Ryan Grim]

I don't know, Sarah. I know this. That President Trump is the wrong guy to go up against. That's what I know. All right, we've got Jeremy Scahill standing by. And so let's ask him a little bit more about how the back and forth is going, because Tel Aviv is also getting absolutely hammered overnight. Last night.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, Hexath's prediction proved to be true, that it would be the most intense day. That's why, again, the transition from Secretary of Defense to Secretary of war, much more accurate, came at the perfect time. Because the entire lie of this being a defensive war, only this is exclusively about national defense, has been exposed in a pretty obvious flamboyant way. And if we're supplying the intel for the Ukrainian strikes on Russia, right now, we're just. Steve Witkoff is now having these conversations about whether Russia is cooperating with Iran and intelligence sharing. Its. The entire approach to this has been. I don't need to continue saying it, but it's so obviously a disaster.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes. And we didn't.

[Krystal Ball]

We didn't have seat of your pants.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes, totally. And we didn't have time to get into a full block on Sudan today. But I did want to update people, and if you've been following our coverage of it, you know that the rsf, which is the kind of. Which has been on a kind of genocidal rampage throughout Sudan, is backed to the hilt by the uae. And the US has been being pressured to put some pressure on the UAE to then withdraw its support from the RSF in order to bring this conflict to a final resolution. Instead, now that the US Is kind of deeply indebted to the Emiratis, we get the opposite. The US Put out a statement yesterday saying that they are designating the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood as a specially designated global terrorist group, which they have not done to the rsf. This is a huge boon to the rsf. So basically, you can imagine what happened. Mohammed bin Zayed is like, telling Trump, like, you want. You want my cooperation here? Like, what I need from you, I need your help in Sudan. Get off my back about the RSF. And in fact, I want you going after the RSF's enemies and Trump is like, what is he?

[Jeremy Scahill]

I don't care.

[Ryan Grim]

Fine, whatever. So we'll have more on that at a further date as the implications of the war kind of spill out into Sudan. But let's bring in next Jeremy Scahill

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 plus flexible online master's program programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace, steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu Steady

[Host/Announcer]

through every mission let's talk personal style. Are you a classic jeans and tee minimalist? A Louis Vuitton lover, or do you like a little bit of both types of Depending on the vibe, whatever your fashion mood, you can find what feels like you on Poshmark. With millions of new and pre loved pieces, Poshmark is your one stop style destination. From everyday wardrobe staples to vintage gems and luxury labels. Inter Reformation Got it. Carhartt Got that too. From designer bags to streetwear, it's all there. Men's? Yes. Women's? Absolutely. Kids? You bet. And the best part? You're shopping real closets from real people with real style. It's like braiding your most fashionable friend's wardrobe if you had thousands of fashionable friends. Plus, every item over $500 goes through Poshmark's authentication process so you can shop high end with total confidence. Ready to refresh your Closet? Head to poshmark.com, sign up with code podcast10 and get $10 off your first purchase. Go ahead, find your next favorite thing. Did you know that parents rank teaching financial literacy as the toughest life skill? That's where Greenlight comes in. The debit card and money app made for families. With Greenlight, you can send money to kids quickly, set up chores, automate allowance and track spending with real time notifications. Kids learn how to earn, save and spend responsibly while parents have peace of mind knowing smart money habits are being built with guardrails in place. Try Greenlight Risk free [e-mail] iheart that's greenlight.com iheart

[Ryan Grim]

Secretary of War Pete Hagseth said that last night would be the most ferocious attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. But on the other side, the Gulf States and Israel are facing increasingly difficult Nights as well, we're getting very little footage either from. Either from phones or from news broadcasts as Israel and the Gulf states are clamping down on the ability of the public or the media to share what's going on. But we did get an interesting kind of clip through Fox News. It kind of gives you an indication of both of those elements. Let's roll this one.

[Host/Announcer]

We have sirens in Tel Aviv.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's go back to correspondent Nate Foy, who is on the ground there. Hi, Nate.

[Ryan Grim]

Hey, Martha. So, yeah, as you can hear, the sirens are going off here in Tel

[Jeremy Scahill]

Aviv, something that we've seen several, several times throughout the entire day. And what we could see here momentarily

[Ryan Grim]

are interceptor missiles fired off.

[Jeremy Scahill]

We have seen it right over my shoulder several different times.

[Ryan Grim]

Again, Iran continues to show an offensive capability launching missiles at central Israel. We have one interceptor over my shoulder right now. We can't show you because we can't show landmarks, Martha. But something that has really changed here over the past couple days is the

[Jeremy Scahill]

use of these cluster munitions by Iran,

[Ryan Grim]

where the warhead breaks up into several different bomblets.

[Jeremy Scahill]

And that's really important because not only

[Ryan Grim]

does it spread the damage, but it makes it more difficult to defend against. Joining us now is my colleague over at drop site, Jeremy Scahill. Jeremy, thanks for being here.

[Jeremy Scahill]

Thanks for having me.

[Krystal Ball]

I'm going to play the role of Tim Dillon in this segment.

[Ryan Grim]

Yes, Jeremy and I were on Tim Dillon. Do not miss. Do not miss that. There are a lot of jokes we can make about that. We're just gonna skip those. So I wanna put up the article that you wrote with Maz yesterday. The headline here, Trump might want to end the war. Iran won't do it on his terms. So what are you guys hearing from Iranian officials about the overtures, whether they actually exist from the United States, and how Iranian officials are feeling about kind of re. Engaging them?

[Jeremy Scahill]

Well, I mean, first, on this issue of, you know, negotiations or talk of a ceasefire, my understanding from speaking to senior Iranian officials is that there have been periodic periods of outreach from third countries to Iran asking about the possibility of a resumption of negotiations. And the Iranians have rejected those. The United States, you know, Trump and other officials have said, oh, the Iranians are desperate to. To talk to us. They want this to end. Iran is saying that's a total lie and that, in fact, it seems to be the United States that through intermediaries is trying to gauge Iran's interest. You see what we're engaged in here or what we're Watching is asymmetric warfare. You have a much more powerful, larger attack force, the United States and Israel, and there's no doubt they have massive military superiority. And the so called War secretary Pete Hegseth loves to get up every day like a drinking buddy, bragging about his exploits from the last weekend and talk about everything that they're bombing and how they're decimating Iran. And they're trying to convince the public that just by showing cool stuff, blowing up, that somehow that means that the United States and Israel are decisively winning this war. But the reality is that for the less powerful military force to achieve quote, unquote victory, they don't have to win militarily. They have to elevate the costs to such a degree that the stronger attacking party decides that it's not worth it anymore. But it's not just that, and this is what we're hearing from Iranian officials, it's Iran doesn't just wanna stop the military onslaught by Israel and the United States. Iran wants to keep fighting so that the entire world, including the United States, understands that if you think you can do this to Iran every four months, pretend you're negotiating and then do, you know, surprise attacks, that you have another thing coming. And so that's why the Iranians now, in response to Trump making threats about the Strait of Hormuz, have started to be more aggressive. IRGC naval vessels, Trump said that their entire navy was wiped out. Well, we now understand that the IRGC navy is giving warnings to ships and if they don't heed them, they're stopping or attacking those ships. So what we're seeing here is that the Iranians are not just trying to inflict damage or continue to strike in Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel, or to continue to strike U.S. military bases in the region. They're also saying, we're not interested in a ceasefire on Trump's terms. And we think that they dramatically underestimated Iran's will to fight, overestimated the potential for a domestic uprising, and dramatically underestimated Iran's weapons capacity. The Iranians are going into what they call a second phase of this war. They feel they have softened U.S. defenses in the region so they don't need to fire as many rockets and that they can continue to do damage with more powerful ballistic missiles, but with less frequent or less intense attacks.

[Krystal Ball]

And obviously, the calculus of sharing intelligence that led to the killing of Khomeini with Israel was that you would decimate the command structure. I mean, we've heard people talking about this in the government right now and thus create a mess and a power vacuum that's easier for the Kurds or whomever else to reciple, to step into and change the regime or alter the regime, as they discovered they could do with Dulcie Rodriguez in Venezuela. So, Jeremy, what is the command structure like right now in terms of you're having these conversations with officials about how they see their strategy? Did the United States severely hamper their ability to organize as the IRGC or as the Iranian government? What does that look like right now? What is the sort of coherence organization strategically look like of the Iranian government as they are fighting back against the United States?

[Jeremy Scahill]

Well, you know, the United States has not fought a modern nation state since really the end of World War II or the Korean War. And so I think there was a radical underestimation of how solid Iran's bureaucratic structure is, both on a civilian level and a military level. I mean, this is a government that has been building horizontal institutions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. And in fact, we reported even before the bombs started hitting on February 28, for weeks ahead of this, we were saying that the Iranians were very clear that they expected decapitation strikes, they attempt. They expected that there would be an attempt that was likely to succeed in assassinating the supreme leader and the rest of the country's official top leadership. And so they created what they called the Mosaic defense system. So in advance of the United States attacking Emily, what Iran did was they started to delegate further down the chain of command authority to launch attacks. And they had a predetermined bank of targets throughout the Persian Gulf and in Israel that if the United States and Israel attacked, they would be activated. And so what I'm told by Iranian officials who have access to the planning process in Iran is that in those first 72 hours or so after the US and Israel began attacking, things were essentially on autopilot when it came to the IRGC's aerospace division, which is overseeing the launching of ballistic missiles and attack drones, of which Iran has many, because they have their own domestic industry. And then once there was a sort of clearing of the dust, that the reality was a full scale existential war was on. That's how Iran saw it. They started to then return to a more centralized, strategic operation. And that allowed them to sort of call audibles, I guess you could say. They would assess the damage that was being done in places like Kuwait, in Qatar, in, in the United Arab Emirates, in Saudi Arabia. They, they knocked out a very expensive, vital piece of radar equipment in Jordan, another one in the Persian Gulf that quite significantly damaged the ability of the United States to have early warning detection. They took out two of the most important radars that are essentially the kind of artery of the defensive operations for the United States in the region. And by incapacitating those, you started to see more successful hits that set in. On a political level, I think that the United States messaging on this has evolved. Trump has gone from saying, rise up, dear Iranian people, to saying, yeah, I would take a religious leader. I mean, it could be somebody who's internal and eternal was the phrase that he used the other day. And so I think a little bit of reality pie is being served right now to the United States. That's not to say that they're not doing massive damage to Iran on a military level and on a civilian level, but it does seem like their calculations were way, way off.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. One thing that has struck me about this is that despite the fact that the US Spends billions upon billions of dollars on intelligence and analysis, and also that the US Has, I would assume, the most well funded kind of media apparatus in the world, it's certainly in the Western world, they seemed to have been caught off guard by almost everything that has come along, even though Emily wasn't. For instance, like, you know, you knew that even Emily, like Emily, does not have a multi billion dollar intelligence and analysis operation. But you knew that Iran's plan was to turn this into a regional war and was to close the Strait of Hormuz, because they said so publicly. And Jeremy reported that repeatedly. To the question of the Gulf states, I want to ask you about your other piece that you had recently. We can put up what is a C2, because this goes to the question too. So you're reporting publicly and the US Government is welcome to read the article or not, if they want to have any idea what's going on, is that Iran waives tactical shift in Persian Gulf strikes while intensifying attacks on Israel. So you reported here that the Iranian assessment was that they had done that. In some ways, I don't want to put words in their mouth. Mission was accomplished in a lot of these Gulf states that they had sufficiently deterred and degraded the US Capacity there, but that there were two countries, two Gulf countries where that assessment was not met and they were going to continue hitting them, but otherwise they were going to back off some of these Gulf countries and focus more on kind of pummeling, pummeling Israel and on, you know, restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since you've reported that, what have you seen kind of unfold? And is there anything you can add to that from your sources since then?

[Jeremy Scahill]

You know, the other day also, the Iranian foreign minister retweeted CENTCOM picture showing missiles being launched from the desert of one of those countries. And he said, thank you for confirming that you are using the territory of some of these countries that claim that they weren't going to allow their territory to be used. We've seen a pretty substantial decrease, though, in the number and volume of strikes that have been unleashed against the Persian Gulf. Yes, they're still happening, particularly in Bahrain, which I had guessed was one of the countries that the Iranians were referring to when they told me that it's the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet and is, you know, one of the main countries whose infrastructure is being used to launch these attacks from both its coastal waters and its territory. And you do still see some strikes happening. But, you know, my sense from speaking to Iranian officials is that they feel that they've sent a message that they've softened it, that they're going to require the US to replenish its interceptors. In fact, we saw images yesterday of the US Actually moving some of its defensive missile capacity away from South Korea to try to transfer it to the Middle east to try to make up for the damage that the Iranians had done. I think also there is a propaganda component to this in the information war, which is that I think that these Gulf states that have cozied up to Trump, that have lucrative business deals with the Trump family, including Jared Kushner, I think they were totally and completely shocked by what happened. I think they knew there were going to be attacks. I think that they had dramatically underestimated the capacity of Iran to just cause panic and terror to rip through their societies.

[Ryan Grim]

And.

[Jeremy Scahill]

And they're watching as the United States has effectively just allowed it to happen while pouring an emergency, rushing as many interceptors and other defensive missile capacity to Israel as possible. There is, I understand, backdoor diplomacy going on between these Gulf countries and Iran. You know, Pete Hegseth said something yesterday that I've heard from officials in some of these Gulf countries just caused, you know, fury, which is. He said that Gulf countries, far from running away from this, are now going on the offensive. And he said, and they're giving us access rights and overflight rights. This was from the beginning, even before February 28th and the start of this. All these countries were yelling to anyone who would listen, no access rights, no use of our territory. No overflight, no use of our airspace. And then Pete Hegseth yesterday is boasting and he says, oh no, no, no, no, no. Iran's actions in the region have caused them to go to our side. This is the total opposite of the messaging coming from the Gulf. Yes, the Gulf states are portraying Iran as the aggressor and they're saying almost nothing whatsoever critical of the United States or Israel. That's becoming a problem among their domestic population. And so by if Iran is basically able to say to those countries, look, we understand that there was some civilian stuff that was hit and we apologize for that. But overwhelmingly we've been attacking the US military infrastructure in your country. I think the Iranians are calculating that the public relations component of this, the killing of civilians, the idea that you're serving Zionism by supporting this in Arab Muslim countries, that they're going to sort of be able to drive the wedge that the US and Israel thought they were succeeding in driving at the beginning of this. That's what I think is the strategy in part.

[Krystal Ball]

I want to get your reaction to some updates here. Jeremy, we can put this next piece of video up on the screen. This is C3IDF says it eliminated Hezbollah commander in an airstrike on the town of in southern Lebanon and he had already taken command after his predecessor was killed in 2024. According to the military. This is what open source intel posted on X. Also we have video here that dropsite posted. This is from the Iranian side. This is our next element we can put up on the screen. This is video released by Iranian media of missiles being launched during the 36th wave of Operation True Promise 4 drop site writes Iran once again warned that US and Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure and civilians quote will not go unanswered. Now their days and nights are limited to siren sounds, fleeing and shelters. We will not let them go. So Jeremy, all of this in what Roughly the last 24 hours, what does this tell us about as we're starting to see chatter from Republicans about just going on the ship doing the Mission Accomplished banner? More like an Arrested Development sketch actually. But they're ready to do it. What does that all tell us about the plausibility or their ability to sell that to the public?

[Jeremy Scahill]

Yeah, I mean this is quite rapidly becoming a quagmire for Trump on multiple fronts. But also Emily, remember Israel assassinated the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. They did the pager bomb plot. Since the November 2024 so called ceasefire, Israel has just continued to bomb Lebanon and claiming that they're even further degrading Hezbollah's capacity. I mean, Israel and the United States basically said that Hezbollah was largely incapacitated and massively damaged. When Hezbollah, you know, last week entered this war, Israel was completely caught off guard by how ferocious the attacks were and how intact Hezbollah's military capacity actually seems to be. In some ways, you know, Hezbollah's entry into this poses is the wild card because they have the high ground. They've already inflicted casualties on the Israelis. They are repelling attempted Israeli invasions. Right now. It's becoming a very serious problem. Israel has had to evacuate settlers and other Israelis from the northern border with Lebanon. It's becoming a very real problem. And Iran saying, we have 10 times the targets. What Iran has said from the beginning is that they're going to respond proportionately, meaning that if their civilian infrastructure starts to get targeted by the US And Israel, then they're going to go after the similar infrastructure in the region. There's been talk of them also going after tech companies that are servicing this war, like Google and others, and some of their outposts in the, in the region. And so, you know, we've seen desalination plants hit in Iranian territory. The Iranians then responding in kind. You could see a massive expansion of this. And if the war drags on and Iran continues to show that it's not just, you know, sort of propaganda, their claims about their enduring capacity, it's gonna tilt very heavily in favor of the smaller side. It's ultimately what caused the US to withdraw from Afghanistan. It's why the United States militarily lost the Vietnam War. It's also to an extent why the US had to leave Iraq, which is that if you're fighting insurgents in a guerrilla war and it goes on, it becomes a war of attrition and your own population starts to see body bags and tin coffins coming home. And economic impact starts hitting ordinary Americans at the pump, at the grocery store. And then all of your friends, and in the case of Trump, including those that are linked up with your son in law's business and other family business stuff, if they start saying you are ruining the entire project, they're in big trouble. And so then that's why the Iranians say this doesn't end on Trump's terms, it ends on ours. And the Iranians are obsessed with this idea. We will not allow them to think that they can end this without a clear guarantee that they don't believe they can keep doing this every four months. And the only way the Iranians believe They can do that is by sending a message to the region and to Americans, ordinary Americans, that when you do this, everything becomes miserable and more expensive for you.

[Ryan Grim]

So from your conversations with them, have they made any attempts to kind of define what that looks like or is it more of a we'll know it when we see it? Like, how do they, how do Iranian officials assess that Israel and the US Governments have paid a sufficient cost such that they will not want to pay it easily again?

[Jeremy Scahill]

You know, it's interesting because I have talked about this and you know, at the very beginning of it, there was a lot of disdain for the role of the United nations and they pointed to, this is Iranian officials and they pointed to what happened with Trump's so called Board of Peace in Gaza and saying that, you know, there is no actual international guarantor of all of this. In recent days I've been starting to hear Iranian officials talk more about a United Nations Security Council process and other international guarantees. You know, China also doesn't like this. Trump's gonna, is scheduled to go to China soon. Russia, of course, is certainly assisting Iran with intelligence and maybe in other ways as well. I think the Iranians don't wanna replay what they saw as the Gaza scenario where Trump creates this sort of fictitious path and it allows a colonial agenda to remain in place. So I don't think that there's any reasonable guarantee in a world where the US is acting as it is under Trump, where the Iranians can say this agreement is worth something. I think what they're more looking at is inflicting enough pain and damage so that that is the motivating factor to any political framework that they will want to also include long term guarantees and a long term established internationally certified agreement. But they're not going to accept the ceasefire like they did in the so called 12 Day War in June, which by the way, US and Israel asked for, not Iran.

[Ryan Grim]

All right, well, interesting stuff. And again, Jeremy, her reporting has been so helpful throughout this. If you really wanted to know what Iranian officials were thinking, which you would think if you're an American war planner, you would want to know that you'd be wrong, but it'd be a fair assumption that you'd want to know what the other side is thinking, your reporting would be the place to find it. Jobsitenews.com is where you can find the latest piece. Thanks so much for joining us.

[Jeremy Scahill]

Thank you guys.

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 plus flexible online master's programs. You can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu Steady through Every Mission it's football season and now you can get anything you need

[Jeremy Scahill]

for game day delivered with Uber Eats. Well, almost. Almost anything. You can't get a running back, but baby back ribs. Yes, Uber Eats official on demand food delivery partner of the NFL.

[Host/Announcer]

We all have different styles. I may be into Levi's and you may be into Fendi or Miu Miu, but we all should be into poshmark.com? right? Because we can all find exactly what we want to fit our style. Poshmark has millions of new and pre lived pieces. Vintage, luxury, men's, women's, children's, everything from Carhartt to Coach. Head to poshmark.com sign up with code podcast10 and get $10 off your first purchase.

[Krystal Ball]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Host/Announcer]

Guaranteed human.