3/12/26: New Ayatollah Breaks Silence, Trump Escalation Trap, Iron Dome Failures, California FBI Warning

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar – March 12, 2026

Episode Summary: New Ayatollah Breaks Silence, Trump Escalation Trap, Iron Dome Failures, California FBI Warning

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Overview

This episode dives into rapidly escalating Middle East tensions, following the new Ayatollah of Iran’s first public statement, the U.S.-Iran escalation after Trump-ordered bombings, a deep analysis of the "escalation trap" featuring expert Professor Robert Pape, unprecedented vulnerabilities exposed in Israel’s Iron Dome system, and a controversial FBI warning of a potential drone attack in California. The hosts, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti, emphasize how these cascading crises expose gaps in U.S. strategy, the limits of military power, and the rising risk of wider war, all while critiquing ongoing establishment narratives.

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Key Sections & Discussion Points

1. Breaking News: The New Ayatollah's First Statement

(02:32 - 08:23)

• Krystal details the new Ayatollah’s message—issued via social media—projecting uncompromising defiance and pledging continued resistance against the U.S., Israel, and their allies.
• The statement:
  • Vows ongoing “defense” and retaliation for martyrs.
  • Threatens to leverage the Strait of Hormuz, with explicit calls for its closure if war persists.
  • Encourages activation of new fronts against “vulnerable” enemies—direct references to Yemen (Houthis), Hezbollah, and Iraq's resistance.
  • Demands closure of U.S. bases in Gulf states, reparations, and threatens to seize or destroy enemy assets if demands not met.
• Krystal summarizes: “Perhaps most importantly, they're not backing down...we are nowhere near any sort of ceasefire. Very defiant message.” (07:07)
• The hosts note he hasn't been seen publicly, speculating on the Ayatollah’s health and the potential IRGC control.

Notable Quotes:

• "The leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used...studies have been conducted regarding the opening of additional fronts..." – Ayatollah (read by Krystal, 02:50)
• “He sounds exactly like his father.” – Krystal (08:09)
• “It’s a very different portrait [than] Trump is giving out…for them, it’s a war.” – Saagar (07:58)

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2. Trump’s Framing of the Conflict & Domestic Backdrop

(08:23 - 10:00)

• Krystal reads Trump’s latest statement: Trump touts U.S. oil profits from rising prices but insists his top priority is stopping Iran from acquiring nukes.
• Jokes arise about Texans thriving amid high oil prices: “Texas Tech nil money…Red Raiders…best team in the country.” (09:00)
• Saagar: “I don’t think their profits are going to help you fill your gas...”
• Sets up the disconnect between official rhetoric and ground realities.

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3. In-Depth Analysis: Professor Robert Pape on the 'Escalation Trap'

(12:18 - 36:50)

Background & Expertise

• Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago) joins to discuss his “Escalation Trap” substack and decades of research into air power and escalation, especially regarding Iran.
• “It has never, and I’m choosing my words carefully, never worked in over 100 years…when states try to use air power alone to topple regimes.” (14:05)

Escalation Spiral & Systemic Risk

• The targeting war is shifting from military to civilian & economic (including banking) targets—confirmation of the escalation trap.
• Both sides now use precision drone campaigns—two “precision air campaigns collide for the first time in history.”
• “We’ve lost control of escalation…Each time President Trump says he’s about to stop the war, nobody listens anymore, prices are going up…he’s losing control more and more to Iran and also more and more to the system shock.” (16:40)

Trump’s ‘Victory Narrative’ vs. Escalation Reality

• Saagar references Trump’s Axios quote: “Anytime I want it to end, it will end.”
• Prof. Pape rebuts: “That’s victory narrative, but it’s meeting escalation reality…Trump is one actor, but Iran is another actor actually driving escalation strongly.” (17:45)
• Challenges of shutting down escalation, coordination with Israel, Iran, Russia, and Gulf states.
• “Victory narrative is meeting escalation reality.” (19:29)

Multi-Layered Risks of the Current Crisis

• Pape outlines five risks:
  1. Energy shock (Strait of Hormuz disruption)
  2. Horizontal escalation (attacks on a variety of targets)
  3. Global infrastructure vulnerability
  4. Military/economic strain
  5. Strategic distraction (overwhelmed decision-makers)
• “...Disasters in the past have been more uni- or single-dimensional. This is multi-dimensional, like a layer cake intersecting in real time.” (20:22)

Next Levels: Nuclear Taboo & Uranium Dispersal

• Saagar: “What’s next?” Pape warns of dispersal of Iran’s enriched uranium, possible radiological weapon development, and global consequences.
• Krystal raises concern about breaking the nuclear taboo—atmospheric nuclear test a possibility.
• Pape: “Iran is pretty strategic…what you would do with nuclear weapons…very first thing is probably a test, not an attack. They want five or six bombs.” (25:57)

U.S.-Israel Divergence & Security Risks

• Saagar asks if Israel benefits from chaos
• Pape: “Israel’s security is getting worse with the passage of time, not better … the dispersal of nuclear material is a danger to Tel Aviv as well.” (31:00)

Historical Parallels—LBJ, Vietnam, and Kosovo

• Krystal: “You said this is close to the most disastrous campaign. What is the most disastrous?”
• Pape: Clinton’s 1999 bombing of Serbia led to massive civilian displacement—a warning for the present.
• “We really have touched off the escalation trap in a way...the biggest problem is President Trump just is losing control and he’s going to try to get the control back, but so too did Lyndon Johnson.” (34:49)
• “It’s the LBJ trap.” (Krystal, 34:53)

Notable Quotes:

• “[Victory narrative]...we all know that because the prices are going up...” – Prof. Pape (18:56)
• “Now is probably the worst disaster that’s unfolding here that’s been triggered by air power...in most of our lifetimes.” – Prof. Pape (21:36)
• “LBJ didn’t think he was going to lose…I guarantee you.” – Prof. Pape (34:56)

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4. Iron Dome Failures & The Expanding Lebanon Front

(36:55 - 45:43)

• Saagar and Krystal break news of a major Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel.
  • Iron Dome fails to intercept roughly half of 100 rockets (37:40).
  • Israeli media reports expose holes in the country’s early warning and missile defense systems.
  • Israeli retaliatory strikes hit across Lebanon. (38:45)
  • Ethnic cleansing rhetoric gains public traction: Israeli figures call for permanent depopulation of southern Lebanon (“advance to the Latani river…not a single resident returns,” citing Amit Seagal, 40:35).
• Krystal observes: “They’re using the opportunity in an attempt to further some of their greater regional goals…what they’re trying to use this war as cover to do.”
• Both hosts argue all this occurs only with U.S. support; Israel’s wars are increasingly multi-front (Hezbollah, Iran, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon).

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5. FBI “Drone Threat” Bulletin to California & Homeland Security Perceptions

(45:43 - 53:47)

• Krystal covers an ABC report: FBI warning police that Iran sought to attack California with drones—a claim law enforcement regards as not credible.
  • Even Fox News sources dismiss specific threats: “There is not a known credible drone threat…this may fall under the general 'Death to America' umbrella."
• The hosts analyze the implausibility of a drone assault (distance, logistics), labeling it a “gin up” scare tactic.
• Previous similar unproven cartel/drone stories cited.
• Krystal: “What you’ve done in the Middle East is just creating actually more risk and danger for Americans…” (50:44)
• Both hosts clarify: Iranian retaliation has always followed U.S./Israeli strikes—no precedent for out-of-the-blue attacks on the U.S. mainland.

Notable Quotes:

• “No, instead what you’re doing with these…fake bulletins is establishing that what you have done in the Middle East is just creating more danger for Americans…” – Krystal (50:44)
• “This particular thing: total and complete bullshit. Yeah, don’t worry about that one.” – Saagar (53:46)

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Memorable Moments & Tone

• The episode is urgent, skeptical of establishment narratives, and darkly humorous (“Texas Tech…best team in the country,” Krystal, 09:00).
• Provides deep historical and strategic framing. Prof. Pape’s discussion is dense with informed analysis, “multi-dimensional disaster,” and open warnings about global risks.
• Krystal and Saagar frequently stress how military overconfidence and escalation spiral out of leaders’ control, echoing parallels to Vietnam and Kosovo.
• Explicit coverage of “ethnic cleansing” language in current Israeli policy discussions.
• Hosts highlight the chasm between on-the-ground consequences versus official U.S. and Israeli talking points.

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Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |---------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | 02:32–08:23 | New Ayatollah's statement, regional escalation | | 08:23–10:00 | Trump message, U.S. oil profits discussion | | 12:18–36:50 | Prof. Robert Pape interview: escalation trap, theory, risks, nuclear fears | | 36:55–45:43 | Iron Dome failures, Hezbollah attack, Lebanon front | | 45:43–53:47 | FBI drone bulletin to California, homeland security, analysis | | 53:47–54:57 | Reflections on risk of domestic blowback and lone-wolf attacks |

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Final Thoughts

This episode of Breaking Points stands out for its clear-eyed critique of both U.S. and Israeli approaches to the rapidly escalating Middle East crisis, focusing on how illusions of control are shattered by real-world complexity. Professor Robert Pape’s “escalation trap” framework underscores how conflicts spiral when policymakers bank on quick victories with air power. The dangers of underestimating adversaries, the risk of nuclear proliferation, and the ever-widening humanitarian catastrophe all take center stage. The show ends challenging both security theater and the continued war logic that, they argue, increasingly endangers both Americans and global stability.

Transcript

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[Professor Robert Pape]

I'm Clayton Eckerd. In 2022, I was the lead of ABC's the Bachelor.

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rewind it all, I would.

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That's when his life took a disturbing turn. A one night stand would end in a courtroom.

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The media is here.

[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Saagar Enjeti]

Agree to date me, but I'm also suing you.

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[Saagar Enjeti]

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[Krystal Ball]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com hey guys, we had some scheduling difficulties. Giannis is actually probably going to join us sometime next week. There was a little bit of a mix up with the time, but we did have some breaking news we wanted to add to the show. The new Ayatollah of Iran has actually issued his very first statement. So let's go and put this up here on the screen and I'm going to read some of the translation which has come directly from his Twitter feed. So let's start first with this A defiant Message Dear fighter brothers, the desire of the masses is the continuation of the effective and regret inducing defense. Furthermore, the leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used. Studies have been conducted regarding the opening of additional fronts in areas where the enemy has negligible experience and will be highly vulnerable. Their activation will be carried out if the state of the war persists and in accordance with the observance of interests. Specifically, he mentions the resistance front and Yemen, obviously making a reference to the Houthis, he says, undoubtedly the companionship of the components of the resistance front with one another shortens the path to deliverance from the Zionist affliction. Brave and faithful Yemen has not yet ceased defending the oppressed people of Gaza. Hezbollah, the devoted has come to the aid of the Islamic Republic despite all obstacles, and the Iraqi resistance too has boldly pursued the the same path. He continues, I assure everyone we will not forego vengeance for the blood of our martyrs. The vengeance that we have in mind is not limited to the martyrdom of the Great Leader of the revolution. Rather, every member of the nation who was martyred by the enemy constitutes an independent subject in the file of vengeance. Only a limited amount of blood revenge for the martyrs has so far taken place, but until it is achieved, this case will remain on the top of all of the cases. The crime that the enemy has deliberately committed regarding the Minyab, Tiab Tree school and other cases holds a special status in the reckoning. We expect reparations from the enemy and if it refuses, we will continue from its assets as we deem necessary, and if that too proves impossible, we will destroy an equivalent portion of its assets. He continues, the enemy has gradually established bases in some neighboring countries over the years. In the recent offensive, some of those military bases were put to use. We naturally have targeted the attacks Precisely as we had issued explicit warnings without making encroachment on these countries themselves, solely striking those bases, the countries of the region must clarify their stance regarding the aggressors against our homeland and the killers of our people. I recommend they shut down those bases as soon as possible, for they must surely have realized by now that America's claim of establishing security and peace has been nothing but a lie. And HE FINISHES Leaders, we pledge to you we will strive with all our being to elevate this flag, the main flag in the front of truth, and to achieve the sacred goals of your Excellency. So he makes reference to his father, continues to say that the Straits of Hormuz, I think, incredibly noteworthy. It's the very first thing that he comes out, calls for a closure of American bases. Obviously very defiant, a reference to the girls school. And perhaps most importantly, they're not backing down. This is, I mean, and look, let's note this. The Ayatollah, this is his first written statement. We don't know his condition. They did acknowledge that he was injured, at least some respect. I think they said he had limited facial wounds and may have been minorly injured in the attack. We haven't seen his. Seen his face. We haven't heard his voice. There was at least some reporting that the IRGC pushed very hard for his election. So it is possible that he is some sort of a puppet figure for the irgc. Regardless, the terms themselves that have been set forth are now the terms ascribed to the leader of Iran. And if the IRGC is fully in control of the nation, this is their position about the Straits of Hormuz and continuation of the conflict. So we are in nowhere near any sort of ceasefire. Very defiant message. I will say it is almost ironic. A friend of mine said something like, took 20 years to replace the Taliban with. The Taliban only took eight days to replace Khamenei with Khamenei. And here we are. He sounds exactly like his father.

[Saagar Enjeti]

I mean, you know, and the reporting is he may be more belligerent. Certainly the state of mind after seeing your family members murdered and, you know, not only do they. Does he start with a. We're going to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. It's going to remain shut down. Also signaling, hey, we're going to, you know, we may open up new fronts that we are going to avenge, you know, the deaths of not only our leader, but obviously the little girls that you killed and all of the other, in their words, martyrs that have been taken. He also called for the Gulf Arab states to give up their US Bases, which was another noteworthy part of this speech and obviously part of their strategy has been to I think pretty effectively put a lot of pressure on, on those Gulf states and make them realize like you thought you were getting protection from the U.S. this has made you a target, you are now complicit. And if there are attacks coming from your, you know, from your airspace, we're going to consider that, you know, attack from you and we are going to respond in kind. So calling for that, also calling for reparations, which I don't think that are going to be forthcoming from the US There had previously been reports that, you know, their cease fire conditions included a payment of reparations for the damages that had been done to their country. And so, yeah, very contrary to the impression that Trump is giving out, that they're weak, they're hobbled, they're on their last legs that we could end this at any time, that this is just a little excursion, as Trump keeps putting it, a little excursion. But for them it's a war. I think this paints a very different portrait. Noteworthy like you said, that he has not yet been seen in public. This statement was read by a news anchor on Iranian state aligned media. And so continue to be questions about, you know, how severely he was injured, et cetera. But that's where we are.

[Krystal Ball]

Yep, that's right. And President Trump I think. Did we get this somewhere else in the segment? We're taping this a little bit out of order. I can just read this new message missive. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far. So when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. But our greatest, greater interest and importance to me as president is stopping. Stopping spelled wrong. And even Empire Iran from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle east and indeed the world. I won't let that happen. Thank you for your attention to this matter. So yeah, high gas prices are good for you. Actually have you seen the Texas Tech corollary to this entire discussion?

[Saagar Enjeti]

No.

[Krystal Ball]

There's a joke that the higher oil prices go that Texas Tech nil money that they will literally never lose a game again because the oil barons of the panhandle of Texas will donate, become so filthy rich they're going to give all their money to the Texas Tech nil fund and that the Red Raiders are going to be the best team in the country. So great. Apparently that's where things I don't think

[Saagar Enjeti]

that their profits are going to help you fill your gas oh, they're definitely.

[Krystal Ball]

I can tell you who's going to do well back. They're going to the car dealers of Midland, every Ford F150 dealer. There will be casinos and strippers who will all be flying to the Panhandle or any other of these places. Texas Tech. The rest of us are going to be playing about the current gases around, yeah, 90 something. 390 right now in terms of where, if he were to peg it to crude oil futures. So great. That's apparently the most winning message midterm message of all time. Insane. All right, let's get to Professor Robert Pape.

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[Professor Robert Pape]

What?

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[Krystal Ball]

And pivotal Joining us now is Professor Robert Pape. He is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, but he is also the author of the Escalation Trap, which is a substack where there will be a link down in the description. All of you should go and subscribe right now. Thank you very much for joining us, sir. We appreciate it.

[Professor Robert Pape]

Thank you for having me.

[Krystal Ball]

Absolutely. So, sir, you are an expert, particularly in air power and in what you call the escalation trap. You studied, I think, every what, every U.S. bombing campaign going back all the way to World War II. And you've talked about World War I.

[Professor Robert Pape]

World War I goes back to World War I. I've spent years teaching for the U.S. air Force conventional targeting strategy. In particular, I have spent 20 years modeling the bombing of Iran. So this is something I know quite a bit about. I also study economic sanctions, terrorism. So all of that is why I built the escalation trap. Because those frameworks I've been using for so long for chiefs of staff of the Air Force, for White Houses and so forth, I thought really time to bring them to everybody.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. Which is why you're such an important guest for us. And we do have some latest news. Before we get into some of your theory about the escalation trap, we want your reaction to. Guys, let's go and put D1 up there on the screen. We have now seen an expansion of Iran declaring that US And Israeli economic banking interests in the region are targets. We have seen this now repeatedly, sir, where we've moved from initial military targets to then the striking of either civilian infrastructure by the United States or Israel inside of Iran. Now an expansion to the banking sector. So it does appear as if your theory about escalation in air power continues to spiral as this war now enters what's its 13th day now so far. So your reaction to this particular piece?

[Professor Robert Pape]

Yeah, this is confirmation of what I've been saying. So when states try to use Air power alone to topple regimes. It has never, and I'm choosing my words carefully, never worked in over 100 years. And we've tried many, many times. I'm glad to go through the cases, but what you get is often this lash back effect that you're not prepared for because you're overconfident. You think you're going to win quick and decisively so you don't prepare for the worst cases. And now the worst cases are coming and so we're, we're always behind. Now what Iran is specifically doing in this lashing back is a horizontal escalation concept. It's actually a concept called parallel attack that we developed in the 1990s in the air Force to use with precision targeting. And so with precision targeting and they have precision drones. So we're effectively seeing two precision air campaigns collide for the first time in history. So their precision air campaign against us is parallel bombing at the same time, multiple nodes, not one at a time like we did in World War II. They're hitting multiple nodes in a network. They're treating their enemy as a system like we taught in the 90s to treat others as a system. You see, this is what their intel has been scooping up. They've been learning from us and studying how to do this. And now what they're doing is they're widening that horizontal escalation and those nodes because the more nodes you can attack at the same time in parallel, the more system shock you produce. So what you are seeing is Trump has triggered a lashing back that is now producing system level shock. This is one of the things I explained. And that system level shock is not just in Iran, it's not even just in the region, it's now going global. And so this is really probably going to go down as the most disastrous air campaign in history. Not quite there yet, but we're heading to major system shock and the panic that everybody's talking about with straight of horror moves. This is just the beginning here. You see, there's no control. The biggest thing I want to say, and then I'll stop, is that we've lost control of escalation. You see, one of the things I'm trying to explain in these writings is that there's the illusion the attacker has control. And now you see, each time President Trump says he's about to stop the war, nobody listens anymore, prices are going up, nobody's paying attention. Cuz we all now know, whether we say it or not, he's losing control more and more to Iran and also more and more to the system shock. You see, actors are going their own way and that's part of the system level shock that is occurring.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Well, let me get your reaction to some of what President Trump is specifically saying because he paints a very different portrait. I would say that what you're painting here for as professor put D2 up on the screen, he spoke with Axios. He told them in a phone interview yesterday the war with Iran will end soon because, quote, there is practically nothing left to target little this and that. Anytime I want it to end, it will end. He said during the five minute call. What is your reaction to his presentation of how this is all going?

[Professor Robert Pape]

Well, this is what I call the victory narrative, but it's meeting escalation reality. And the reality is that he's one actor in the system now, but Iran is another actor who's actually driving the escalation pretty strongly. So if he's want to shut this war down, he's got to shut down the attacks on Iran. Well, he's already tried to break Iran. That's not working. So what's he going to give Iran to get them to stop? You see, he had a deal on the table the Friday before he started the bombing. He can't, I'd be very surprised and go back to that deal now. And then on top of that, imagine he could even get the Iranians to come back to a third round of negotiators. Keeping in mind we've killed the previous negotiators twice now. But keep in mind, let's say he pulls that out of the how is he going to get Israel to stop killing the leaders the next time? You see. So is he going to slap sanctions on Israel and say you kill more Iranian leaders? So he's got, and these are just, and I haven't even talked about the Gulf states and others and Russia. My goodness gracious. So as this has become a system level problem, those actors multiply who have control and increasingly more control than the United States. So just imagine I just named Iran, Israel and Russia that he has to get to call this thing off. How's he going to do that? Exactly. What's the plan here? Again, this is victory narrative. We're in now the midst of escalation reality and that victory narrative, we're just going to find fewer and fewer people paying any attention. They may listen, Trump loyalists may say they verbalize it, but that's like as if you see it's not real and it's we all Know that because the prices are going up. And then when the price of the gas is going up, everybody's going to know. Victory narrative is meeting escalation reality.

[Krystal Ball]

Very, very true. So let's turn to some of your own points here about the risk. Guys, can we put his slideshow D4 up there on the scre? So you start with multiple risks that we are now seeing. Energy shock. About 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If that flow is disrupted even partially, the economic shock would hit obviously the entire globe energy markets watching that. Risk number two is horizontal escalation, which I believe you've just talked about. Risk three is global infrastructure vulnerability. Risk four is military and economic strain. And risk five is strategic distraction. Can you just break some of that stuff down for us so we can get into it?

[Professor Robert Pape]

Yeah, so. So what you are seeing is not this disaster that is unfolding is multi dimensional. Now we've had disasters in the past, but they have been more uni or single dimensional. The reason I'm laying this out in threads here is because the threads allow us to see the different dimensions of the risk. And there are dimensions like a layer cake that are intersecting in real time, you see, and it's becoming. And the point on, you've laid out the risks. And I'll just mention the point on the distraction. As the risks come together, they overload us. We get overwhelmed. Well, that's why I put out these frameworks in the escalation trap and then tie them to the events that are occurring. Occurring because as I have over the years, I started to develop these when I taught for the US Air Force because I saw that the in war, in crisis, people are overloaded. And that's when the frameworks, believe it or not, become the most important. Because they need those to make sense of this complex chaos. Otherwise they're just bouncing all around, you see. So what you're seeing with that distraction is one of the most difficult challenges right now. It's not just that we have a lot coming in our Twitter feeds, our X feeds. That's not quite it. It's that there's multi dimension. So let's break them apart, let's talk about them. Let's see how they're unfolding in stages. The post I'm about to put out on Substack pretty soon after this interview is going to help tie those together so people can see that and then help see where this thing is happening. Headache, you see, and what is really in front of us. Now is probably the worst disaster that's unfolding here. That's been triggered by air power certainly in most of our lifetimes. And we'll see how far this, this goes. But it's no longer just President Trump, as I'm saying. Oh yeah, he's just going to wake up. Well, he can try it. He can announce today, right now, this second. You know, Professor Pape, you're wrong. I announced today the war is over. See if it stops the next hour, you see, because it's got all those other actors here who are, you know, he had chances to stop this in June. He could have negotiated. He's now touched off the escalation trap. He's in it. It's not something that he controls.

[Saagar Enjeti]

And what does the next level of escalation look like? We already have a broadening of the war. Obviously the GCC countries have been hit pretty significantly. They seem quite upset. Israel is getting hit. They're saying they may set up some positions in the Horn of Africa. We have reported involvement of the Russians and the Chinese. What does the next level of escalation look like?

[Professor Robert Pape]

The next level is going to be about the dispersal of the enriched uranium that you're hearing quietly, these briefings on Capitol Hill, the senators coming out ashen faced and so forth. We have to keep in mind that for 25 years, not just Donald Trump, this whole crisis with militarized cris with Iran has been about Iran's enriching uranium. Well, they have 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium that was in Fordeaux, Natanz, Esfon, other places. And when Trump bombed that in June, he destroyed buildings and functioning of buildings. He didn't get that enriched uranium. And we have satellite photography of likely the dispersal of that material. And that's on my substack. So people can go and watch a video. They do have to subscribe, it's free, but you can see the actual satellite photography of this. And we also have more photography from satellites. And this is civilian satellites, by the way, in February in Estefan. So this is now happening, you see, and it's coming out. President Trump himself a couple days ago in one of his discussions mentions this dispersal happening. This is very worrisome. That material can be, yes, down the road fashioned into bombs, but it can radiological weapons. So imagine that sprinkled on those cones of some of those precision drones going into Doha. How, you know, we already, you know, when's the next time a billionaire is going to show up there? So you end up with, so there's a lot of real capability here that Iran has not used yet. And this image of Iran as a beaten down, you know, tiny little, you know, pipsqueak of a country with no capability that we've been hearing for years. This has never been true. Okay, so what's happening is Iran is a Fairly strong country, 92 million. It's, as you reported, exporting oil when the rest of the world can't get. Just think about this for a moment. So they have a lot of capability here yet to go. And this is where the real danger is down the road. We're only at the beginning of the dangerous part of the escalation trap.

[Krystal Ball]

Professor, I am very worried about the breaking of a nuclear taboo, not necessarily just in the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, but an atmospheric nuclear test. Where would that fit into your escalation line? Am I going to be writing?

[Professor Robert Pape]

Yeah. So I give lectures on this. So again, this is something. This is now going to come forward. I will put these as lectures and video online. So every two weeks for some part of my substack, I do these video briefings now and so we can talk about these serious issues. So what people have been saying is Iran is so radical, irrational that what they're gonna do is they're gonna fashion a bomb. And the very first thing they're gonna do is they're gonna drop one on Tel Aviv and maybe a second one on New York here. And then what this is, is an image of Iran. They're painting an image of an irrational state that spasmodically reacts without thinking. That's not what Iran has been doing for 25 years. So I'm not trying to paint them as 10ft tall. Yeah, but they've been pretty strategic. I would. I would say I'd give them at least a B plus, if not an A. So they've been pretty strategic in how they've behaved. And what you would do with nuclear weapons is the very first thing is you don't just set off when you have one. You want to follow the North Korea pattern, which is you want many nuclear weapons. Notice North Korea has got 60 plus nuclear weapons. And we're suddenly saying that, well, okay, we're not going to tickle that tiger. Well, that Iran saw that. So Iran is. Is what? That's why in their material that all that material, that thousand pounds and everything I'm describing, that's enough for between 10 and 16 bombs. So what Iran really wants, if they're going to go the nuclear route, is not one bomb. They Want five or six bombs. Because the very first use of that bomb is probably going to be, quote, a test. And then what are we going to say? We're going to say, oh, that's not good enough. They only had one. They only had one. So then they're going to have to do a second test, probably on their own territory. Once they do two, they're not going to need to do three or four and people are going to panic and then how, how. And then we're going to see the real consequences of what's occurring here, you see? So they, the way to understand this is the politics of strategy, the politics of escalation. That's my forte. So I taught the best pilots in the Air Force. Those folks weren't coming to me to learn how to put a bomb on a target. They want to know when they're generals and their four star generals and their chief of staff, what's going to happen here after the bombs hit the target, you see? And that's why quite a few folks, I've even received emails here from my former military students saying, my God, Professor Pape, you were teaching this 20 years ago here. You must be hitting your head about what's, what's occurring because it's unfolding just as you told us it was going to unfold in your frameworks.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Professor Robert Pape]

And they're appreciating now. Those frameworks are becoming more available so people can understand this. And that's why I think you saw the military being much more reluctant to get on this board with regime change. You saw that, right? There's a, there's a gap here. And the military, I, they're very professional, they're going to do what they are ordered to do. They will give advice. But if the President says that's all fine and good, but I'm going to ignore your advice, they, they will, they will do that because they are professionals. They are loyal to the Constitution as they see it here. But that's the real danger, sir. So I hope I explain that this is where the scariness here could get worse. And, and got, and, and we have big midterms coming up, so why wouldn't they time this around the midterms? I mean, that would really, just think about what that would do for Trump's. They really, the soft underbelly that we know and our enemies know is our politics. That's why they've gone the long war strategy. And what you're seeing is they're having all different dimensions of the long war and more and more, Trump is looking like Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam, where he just lost control.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Wow. And my last question for you is there's been a bunch of reporting about how Israeli interests and goals may diverge from U.S. interests and goals. I'm curious your thoughts on that. So while you see this as going catastrophically for the us, is it going catastrophically for Israel? Because it seems to me that just having Iran's capabilities degraded and the possibility of sort of chaos on the ground in Iran serves Israeli interests fairly well. And certainly it's been a goal of theirs for a long time to get us and the Gulf states, et cetera, embroiled directly in this war.

[Professor Robert Pape]

Yeah. So I wanna separate what Israel and Netanyahu may think their interests are, and I understand they the right to define their own interests from what I think is their actual security interests. And what I think is happening here is that Israel's security is getting worse with the passage of time, not better. And I think they too have been mesmerized by the hyper accuracy of precision weapons. They can bomb targets and so forth, and then they can actually destroy buildings with precision weapons. As you're seeing, they've learned in Gaza that you can actually mass coordinate those bombs and say you're not targeting civilians while you wreck the civilian infrastructure for anybody to live anywhere. So they're learning this. But the bottom line is that this is those things I'm talking about, like, let's just pick the nuclear. The dispersal of nuclear material. Trump's bombing of Fordeau did not contain the nuclear problem in Iran. It triggered the dispersal of nuclear material. And as that material disperses, that's a danger not just to America, that's not just a danger to, say, Basra, that's a danger to Tel Aviv as well. And what is Netanyahu exactly going to do here? You know, are they. Are they seriously going to put ground troops in? Are they seriously going to think about nuclear escalation? I mean, this is the kind of things you got to scratch your head and say, what are they actually thinking? Because this dispersal of this material, none of those options are guaranteed to protect. So this really is not, I would say, in Israel's interest. But they've got their stated views and they may disagree. And as they disagree, then the real divergence here is between their stated or thinking and the actual reality that they are facing. That's the real issue here.

[Krystal Ball]

Last question for you, sir. You said this is close to the most disastrous campaign. What is the most disastrous campaign?

[Professor Robert Pape]

Yeah, the most disastrous campaign was Probably Bill Clinton's campaign in March 1999 when he had a three day bombing campaign. He thought it would be three days to hit 51 regime targets in and around Belgrade, including Milosevic, the leader's home. Now the idea was to wreck the crony regime of Milosevic. We had this model of the cronyism in, in Serbia. And what happened was that triggered a lashing back where Milosevic sent 30,000 troops in a horizontal escalation way to cleanse a million near 980,000 Kosovar civilians from Kosovo. That's 50% of the population. Now what do we have here comparing that so far? We have 50,000Americans who've run away. So that's not a million who've run out of the region, but still that's 50,000. And as time goes on, the economic consequences here are going to meet, reach not just millions, but probably hundreds of millions of people. That's only at the beginning stages now. So that's why I say we're entering that. But if, you know, this goes on for three or four weeks, as it well could, and, and we're going to discover that putting out those oil reserves are one time, you use it once and it's gone. And then that's all going to start to get priced into everything. As those price surges continue to go up in by April, you're going to start to see the real pain come in and it's, and it's going to start to make Kosovo look like a small hill. So this is where we're really heading. And notice we haven't even talked about the movement scary stuff that we were just talking about before. So, so as you, as this thing unfolds, we need to understand that we're really, really have, have touched off the escalation trap in a way. And the biggest problem is that President Trump just is losing control and he's going to try to get the control back, but so too did Lyndon Johnson.

[Krystal Ball]

I was going to say that's the LBJ trap. We can call it that.

[Professor Robert Pape]

It's the LBJ trap. It's the same. This is the LBJ didn't think he was going to lose. I guarantee he didn't wake up one day and say, oh yeah, how can I actually become probably the worst president in history and then beg for other presidents to come in like Jimmy Carter and so forth to bail them out. I mean this is really, they don't wake up that way. I guarantee you what they're waking up is they're, I think mesmerized by this illusion of control, of escalation. And you even hear President Trump saying, when will Iran reach the breaking point? That was exactly the rhetoric of lbj. How can we break the back of the North Vietnamese? And that search for the breaking Point. There's actually articles with those titles. The Search for the Breaking Point, you see, and that language, I mean, I don't think Trump probably went back to the speeches of lbj. This is the reality of the frameworks. The frameworks were force this, you see, and so that's why those frameworks matter.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, well, he's out right now saying that oil, high oil price is actually good for the US So I think your point about how people are not going to be listening to him. They have their own interests when they see those prices.

[Professor Robert Pape]

Yeah, we're just. We're just enjoying eating. But, you know, we eat. You know, we're eating three meals a day, and most of us probably should just be having one. And, boy, that's going to be. No, this isn't going to work.

[Krystal Ball]

Great, Great tactic, sir. Thank you so much for joining us. Escalation trap substack link is down in the description. Also, I just ordered your book on Amazon while you were talking.

[Professor Robert Pape]

Oh, my gosh.

[Krystal Ball]

Bombing to Win. It's on my way to my house and I'll do a review here on the show.

[Professor Robert Pape]

Yeah, well, and I really appreciate what you're doing for the country here to kind of bring these frameworks out so they can see that there's some way to understand what's happening to us.

[Krystal Ball]

It's our honor.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. It's our privilege. And we hope you'll join us again.

[Professor Robert Pape]

Absolutely. Thank you very much. My pleasure.

[Saagar Enjeti]

So, guys, we're getting some new video out of Israel showing a significant Hezbollah attack on northern Israel. Can put these images up on the screen. These are fairly extraordinary. Of course, it's pretty rare to get any sort of video out of Israel because they have severe censorship. And you can see the significance of this attack. I mean, some of these are being intercepted, and some of them are clearly striking targets in the area. You know, this after the idea that had been projected. And I think that the Israelis maybe even believed that Hezbollah had been severely degraded after their top leadership had been taken down after the infamous beeper attack. And yet clearly here they are able to fully join this war in a way that is fairly sophisticated. And at the same time, it appears that the Iron Dome is failing to intercept a sizable number of the missiles at this point that are being fired towards Israel. We can put this next one up on the screen. This is pretty extraordinary. This reporter says that the Iron Dome could not stop about half of the 100 rockets that Hezbollah launched at Israel just a few hours ago. We can also put E3 up on the screen. Haaretz has some reporting about the quote, unquote, hole in Israel's early warning system and its missile defense batteries are at risk as well. And so basically what this article lays out in detail is that when you have these missile defense systems, they also have to be protected. And so that has created tremendous vulnerability. And obviously, Sagra, it has been a strategy of Iran to target these defense systems, and they've been pretty effective, at least at our batteries in the region in effectuating that targeting. That's why we had to pull the Thaad battery system from South Korea and bring it over, because some of the damage that had been incurred. And so their strategy was to take out those capabilities or degrade those capabilities early, and then that would enable them to be able to strike stronger blows using fewer rockets, missiles and drones, et cetera. And based on what we can see in terms of the degrading capability of the rocket interception here from the Iron Dome, that strategy seems to be working fairly successful.

[Krystal Ball]

Let's put E4 just to give you an example. This is from the Jerusalem Post. So, again, everything we're showing you is from Israeli media. After 11 days of fighting, Israel has received 9,000 missile damage claims, 6,500 buildings, 1044 contents and equipment, 1,485 vehicles. So that is just the private claims. Now, so far, that does not factor in the Hezbollah attack that just happened yesterday. Keep in mind also that this now means an opening of the front with Lebanon. Let's put E5 up there on the screen. I can talk a little bit over it. These are some of the strikes that were happening all across Lebanon in immediate retaliation, immediate reports out of Israel. At least some said that only about 50% or so of those rockets were even intercepted by the Iron Dome. Combine that with what Crystal just talked about in terms of the holes in the targeting system. So. So they are now being struck in a coordinated attack by Hezbollah and by Iran also. The fact is, is that clearly Hezbollah has much more strength than they let on. Remember the pager attack and the war and often bombing that they had launched. Now, what this shows is not only their strength, but the retaliation that Israel is now going for. And already they're basically doing the Israeli playbook, floating ethnic cleansing. It's right there on The. It's on the books.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah. Let's put E6 up on the screen. This is Amit Seagal, who is a regime propagandist in Israel closely tied to the government. And what he is saying is, quote, what needs to be done in Lebanon is very simple. Advance to Latani river and announce we will not leave until Hezbollah is disarmed. But this time, unlike the old security zone, not a single resident returns, AKA ethnic cleansing, and at the same time, a severe and devastating strike on Dahiya. So this is what is being floated and very much part of the Greater Israel Project. This would be accomplishing some of their additional goals. I think Sagar made the point earlier. Part of why we're getting that video out of Israel's being allowed out of the rocket attacks from Hezbollah is to try to justify exactly this type of military incursion and takeover. And ultimately, what's being floated here is an ethnic cleansing, removing all of the existing residents and not allowing them to return, and de facto taking over more territory in the region. That is what they're trying to use this war as cover to do. So they're taking damage, but they're also using the opportunity in an attempt to further some of their greater regional goals.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, exactly. And you actually, literally, as we were taping, I can read the latest from Amit Sehgal and the idf, the IDF spokesperson has now directed all residents of southern Lebanon to move beyond a border checkpoint, which is a river inside southern Lebanon. So, I mean, I don't know what the population is probably a lot. Right. And basically a evacuation order, aka a Gaza Level 1. And as he floated there, we're gonna tell them to leave and that you're never gonna come back until we dismantle all of Hezbollah. And. Oh, and actually that's basically an impossible task. And so that will mean that we'll just get to take over and annex, de facto annex in another part of another country. And this is all happening under our auspices. It also shows you this is something Professor Pape talked about, about their actual security interest. Now they're fighting a war with Iran. Now they're fighting a war with Hezbollah. They're fighting a war, or they technically have annexed, like, parts of Syria. They're literally on a seven front war. What is the eighth front? It's the United States, the propaganda war against people like us. You are watching them expand in territory at this very moment. But also, they can't do any of this without the explicit backing of the United States. And you already see holes in Their military interceptors. And the longer this goes on leads you to what Professor Pape talked about, the escalation trap. And what they may not have interceptors, but what do they have? Nuclear weapons. They have ground forces which could invade Lebanon. They can pressure the United States to continue going and, you know, all in with our entire military. That's the really scary part about watching this happen.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, no, that's absolutely the case. And I mean, with regard to Israel. Right. The whole raison d' etre is to be a safe haven for Jews.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Saagar Enjeti]

How safe is this haven right now? I mean, you know, Shyl has been talking about how many, how many people in Israel have been leaving the country, have been, you know, their level of outmigration is really significant because, yeah, you want to be in a bomb shelter every, you know, every other month you're having to huddle with your family in a bomb shelter and have sirens go off in Tel Aviv and worry about your apartment building being struck or your car being destroyed or, you know, or God forbid, you, you know, losing your life or your children being threatened, et cetera. So, of course, a lot of, A lot of normal people who are not down with the like, you know, hardcore religious end times and the Greater Israel Project and the whole bit, they're gonna say, okay, we're out of here. You know, we're gonna go to greener pastures. So I think that is absolutely the case. But there is. I also want to be really clear. The population of Israel is fully on board with this war. I mean, I said the polling here is, you know, overwhelming opposition in Israel. It's like 87% that are absolutely in favor of this war with Iran. Netanyahu is not an outlier. His government is not an outlier. They are representative of the wishes of the people of Israel. So, you know, so this is the direction they're going to continue to push in. And I think it once again demonstrates the divergence between the global goods or even the US Good and what the Israelis want. Yet they seem to be very effective at getting their way.

[Krystal Ball]

Yep. So don't let this go unnoticed. We got a full blown, you know, ethnic, possible ethnic cleansing watch right here. Happening again now in Lebanon. It's going to be crazy. It's going to tie them down, it's going to escalate stuff for us. They're going to lean even more heavily on us to give them more types of weapons or who knows, and unleash what else potentially on Iran is some sort of retaliation.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Really pay close attention and Hezbollah surprisingly fierce. Yeah, I think for. For everybody. I did not know that they continued to maintain this level of capacity. And so yet another factor that was not anticipated, because when you have Iran and Hezbollah striking inside Israel at the same time, that is going to overwhelm their.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, because the narrative was we already dealt with Hezbollah with the pager attack. We're finished, we're over, it's done. And so we don't have to wait out. We're just fighting with, oh, oops, all of a sudden, 100 rockets come over and you're like, okay, this is not good, you know, and turns out, not nearly as depleted as we thought. I also think Hezbollah's not stupid. They knew they were under immense pressure from the Lebanese government to not do anything like this. But for them, they're like, look, if Iran gets wiped out, then we're gonna get wiped out one way or the other. We're gonna lose our benefactor and. Or they're gonna come and they're gonna get us next. So it's existential. We gotta fight to the death. So we have multiple people now fighting to the death on this front. And, you know, don't underestimate them. Look at what they did in Syria. Real battle tested force. A lot of them are willing to die. So, yeah, just another front that's opened here in the war. Okay, let's get to California and the drone threat. Turning now to a very strange incident, we should have to keep you all updated. So there's this big piece of news from ABC that broke yesterday. Let's put it up here on the screen. What do we have? We have the FBI is warned that Iran aspired to attack California with drones in retaliation for the war. The warning came in a bulletin that was sent to police departments in recent days that Iran could retaliate for American attacks by launching drones at the West Coast. We recently acquired information, as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the US Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California in the event that the US Conducted strikes against Iran. We have no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack. Obviously, a lot of hackles were raised at that one. What exactly is going on here? Is it a way to try and, you know, inspire fear in the American public in order to try and support some of what's going on right now with the war and local police and others, including those briefed on the matter? Let's put F3 please, up on the screen, LAPD sources. This is from Fox News, by the way, just to show you how little credence that even these people are giving it. They say, I've talked to today say there is not a known credible drone threat. And this may fall under the general Death to America umbrella. So not really something that was worth, I think, a full blown bulletin to the lapd. Let's think about logistics here, Crystal. So the current range, I believe, of the drone would make it so that what is it like three to four times? Anything that is even in their theoretical maximal range for their longest range drone that they may have, they would have to put it on a unmanned aircraft carrier which would have to sail thousands of nautical miles off the coast of California, so via, you know, across various different sea channels and other things which are highly monitored, and then it would have to take off from said aircraft carrier, unmanned carrier, allegedly, and then come and hit a site in California. Just personally a little skeptical of that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I would say so. I would say so. There was another uncorroborated report, they say from 2025 that suggested unidentified Mexican cartel leaders had authorized attacks using drones carrying explosives against US Law enforcement. They said this type of attack against US personnel or interests inside the US Would be unprecedented, but exemplifies a plausible scenario. Although cartels typically avoid actions that would result in unwanted attention or responses from US authorities. Again, think of how nonsensical this is. You think the Mexican cartels want to start a war? Like you think that's gonna go well with them? You think that's an intelligent scenario? So they're clearly trying to gin up all of these frightful scenarios of what could unfold. And they've got the sequencing all wrong here. Soccer. You gotta manufacture the consent before the war starts. You gotta do the false flag before you get into this thing. You gotta generate all the fear and the anxiety and the, oh God, they're like terrible people who are coming to attack California. You gotta do that before you launch the war, guys. Cuz now it just reads as like, okay, well if there's all this risk, why are you doing this? Why are you creating more risk? How is this creating any sort of like sense of safety for the American people? No, instead what you're doing with these, you know, fake bulletins is establishing that what you have done in the Middle east is just creating actually more risk and more danger for Americans and here and abroad. I mean, I don't put any stock. There's all this like Iranian sleeper cell conversation now Too. I don't put any stock in that as well either. But it is true that we are making a lot of people around the world absolutely hate our guts. We just murdered 168 school children. How do you think that their parents feel about us now? How do you think that they're siblings who are gonna grow up? How do you think they're gonna feel about us now? How do you think all of the orphans in Gaza or the children who are amputees now? Largest amputee population in the world in Gaza. How do you think that they. So yes, we are creating more danger for our own population and our own service members and our own assets in the region. Do I believe this particular story about drone striking la? Absolutely not. And one other thing to keep in mind here is, you know, I mean what we've seen from Iran in terms of their attacks on any sort of US personnel or bases in the region, it has always been we or Israel attack them first. First. We have not seen them trying to come over here and drone strike as we have not seen them out of the blue attacking our assets in the region either. It has always been in retaliation for something that we started. So it does not fit their pattern of behavior whatsoever. And of course we already have law enforcement officials who are like, this is pretty cool.

[Krystal Ball]

The drone thing. I'm not worried about the sleeper cell thing. I'll put it to you this way. Do I think that there are intentionally designed terror sleeper cells? We didn't see any of that usually during the global war on terror. Although there were a few like Al Qaeda plots. You couldn't really call it sleeper cell. It would be ankai to sell, right? Like people who were inspired. There would be like a small set of teams. You have the London attacks that happened in 05. You had some, the Times Square plot, some of these other things that happened here in the United States. That's very unlikely. But what did we see? A lot of San Bernardino, a lot of these. What are they like? You know, these so called lone wolf, inspired. I'm actually pretty worried about that.

[Saagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that can definitely happen.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, listen, we know we have tens of millions of people here illegally. We have no idea who might most of these people are. We don't have no registry or any of that. Not to mention a massive Muslim population. It's like, yeah, that's scary. And it couldn't even just be them. It could also be, I mean, who knows, far left anarchists, far right people like you have no clue.

[Saagar Enjeti]

You also have an FBI that's very interested in creating false, like ginning up terror attack, radicalizing people themselves and then setting them off so that they can disrupt. Oh my God, we disrupted the terror attack. But no, I mean, listen, it's undocumented immigrants, that's one thing. But you also have plenty of Americans who are gonna be disgusted and radicalized by what's going on, who are looking at the atrocities abroad. And so it's a very volatile mix. Obviously we're a population that is chock full of guns and weapons and very violent society to begin with. We were just talking about the fact that a bunch of these white South Africans that came over here are going back home because they find our society to be too violent, dangerous and chaotic. So you know, that is the landscape. And then you add on top of that this disgusting illegal war of choice where innocent civilians are being slaughtered. And we can see not only the schoolgirls, we see what happened in Tehran when the Israelis reportedly bombed this oil depot and you had a massive ecological disaster, acid rain raining down from the sky, health effects that we can only scarcely imagine what the reverberations of that have been. Many civilians have been killed. And yeah, it's, it creates more risk for us is the bottom line. But this particular thing, total and complete bullshit. Yeah, don't worry about that one.

[Krystal Ball]

As I said, I'm not, I'm really not worried about some like state sponsored attack. I think that some sort of blowback style attack that could happen here in the. By the way, I didn't, I mentioned all these illegal. What about all these Iranians who are currently living here? We got like, you know how many massive Iranian populations. Polling which you've seen. Crystal, if you watch the media, you would think 90% of American Iranians are for the war. Not true. More recent poll just came out. They're 50, 50 on it. So like you just said, maybe there's some guy who's got some family over there. They get killed. You could see it happening. Are we excusing it? No, we're just living in reality. Like yeah, hope that there's no violence. But having lived through the entire global war on terror and seeing some of these attacks all happen in real time, you really, you know, you really have to be careful. Which is why it's a better idea. Just not get involved in the war in the first place. Okay, thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We'll have a great Friday show for everybody tomorrow. We'll see you all then.

[Stephanie Young]

This is an I heart podcast guaranteed human.