3/13/26: US Plane Crash In Iraq, Michigan Attack, Munitions Deplete, Brad Lander Joins & MORE!

Summary

Podcast Summary: Breaking Points with Krystal & Saagar

Episode: 3/13/26 – US Plane Crash In Iraq, Michigan Attack, Munitions Deplete, Brad Lander Joins & MORE!
Date: March 13, 2026
Hosts: Krystal Ball, Emily Jashinsky, Mac Call, Ryan Grim

---

Main Theme and Purpose

This episode centers on escalating military tensions in the Middle East, focusing on the U.S.-Iran war, a mysterious U.S. plane crash in Iraq, recent domestic attacks, and quickly depleting U.S munitions. In addition to the critical war coverage, the episode features an in-depth interview with New York City congressional candidate Brad Lander, addressing both foreign and domestic ripple effects, the spread of sectarian violence, and the role of big money in politics.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Escalating Iran War

• Escalation and U.S. Claims:
  • Repeated U.S. claims of having “the cards” and superiority in the conflict (03:22–04:09, Pete Hegseth: “President Trump holds the cards. He’ll determine the pace, the tempo and the timing of this conflict, his hand firmly on the wheel as well as on the throttle, setting America first, peace through strength in action.”)
  • Large-scale U.S. airstrikes continue, with both sides suffering losses and Iran’s missile capabilities largely unimpaired (24:13, Ryan Grim: “The number of Iranian missile launchers has held steady after a week of unrelenting airstrikes, according to Israeli and Western estimates.”)
• War Objectives Unclear:
  • Hosts describe goalpost-shifting and strategic ambiguity. Trump administration and Pentagon appear to lack clear, achievable goals.
    • Krystal Ball (12:06): “What even are your goals? Because they change every day.”
    • Emily Jashinsky (23:46): “We still don’t even know if our goal … has anything to do with missile capacity or if it has anything to do with the nuclear capacity.”
• Analysis of Iranian Strategy:
  • Iran adapts tactically, shifting focus to economic and asymmetric warfare, inflicting ongoing pain especially surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf assets (27:22).
  • Hosts stress the historical record: aerial bombardment alone rarely—if ever—topples regimes.
• Risk of Regional and Global Escalation:
  • Israel is seen as striving to seize a “generational opportunity” for regime change in Iran, with open disagreements surfacing between Israeli and U.S. leaders over “how far” to escalate—even the nuclear question is raised as within the realm of possibility under Israeli thinking (32:28–34:09).
  • Krystal suggests the more likely next step is U.S. ground forces if the stalemate continues: (38:50) “I think the US is going to be the ones to escalate the next level and put boots on the ground. I think that’s where this is almost inevitably going.”

Notable Quote

• Emily Jashinsky (34:09): “Is Israel seeing this as a historic generational opportunity to wholly topple an enemy? … That is exactly how these things spiral. First to boots on the ground and then the goalpost keeps moving and moving.”

---

2. U.S. Military Setbacks and Government Accountability

• Plane Crash in Iraq:
  • Another American aircraft lost; official claim says not hostile fire, but skepticism abounds due to secrecy and prior cover-ups (14:58, Krystal Ball).
  • Deaths and severe injuries among service members, with persistent underreporting (16:32, Emily Jashinsky).
• Infrastructure Woes:
  • U.S. carriers in the region face mishaps: a fire and repeated malfunctions paint a picture of operational stress and possible vulnerability (17:10, 17:54).
• Attrition as a Two-way Street:
  • Both U.S. and allied economies are feeling pain—Biden (and now Trump) under pressure as costs spiral, munitions run down much faster than anticipated (29:03, Krystal Ball).
• Transparency and Honesty:
  • The hosts highlight systematic government deception about the conflict and casualties, drawing a parallel to past wars.

---

3. Economic Fallout and the Depletion of U.S. Munitions

• Munitions Shortages:
  • Years of U.S. munitions stockpiles consumed in mere weeks.
    • Ryan Grim (29:03): “If you burn through years worth of munitions in mere days, that was not actually years worth of munitions.”
• Strategic & Economic Leverage:
  • Iran leverages ability to disrupt oil markets and strain the global economy.
• Dollar & Energy Hegemony at Risk:
  • Treasury gives temporary relief to Russian oil importers to stabilize markets—highlighting contradictions in U.S. policy (50:34+).
  • Hosts discuss the growing fragility of U.S. economic power—emphasizing how repeated foreign policy blunders threaten the economic system underpinning American military might.

Notable Moment

• Krystal Ball (55:14): “Our whole economy is just like a Ponzi scheme... the whole stock market’s built on this theoretical AI boom that’s really not proven in terms of its profitability that also, by the way, relies on access to cheap energy.”

---

4. Domestic Fallout: Attacks and Sectarian Violence

• Recent attacks on U.S. targets (synagogue in Michigan, Gracie Mansion incident, etc.) highlight the way violence and hate crimes escalate alongside foreign policy adventures.
• Brad Lander on Spreading Violence (62:13): “Violence gets more common. That never makes it okay… it is also true that in the wake of war, violence gets more common. That never makes it okay.”

Balancing Civil Liberties & Security

• Lander and hosts debate the need to fight bigotry (both antisemitism and Islamophobia), while fighting to preserve free speech and civil liberties in the climate of heightened fear and surveillance (67:42–70:39).

---

5. NY Congressional Race & Money in Politics (Brad Lander Interview, 58:45–85:43)

• Brad Lander:
  • Slams the Iran war as an illegal, reckless war of choice, emphasizing accountability.
  • Draws clear distinction between his stance and that of his AIPAC-backed opponent, Dan Goldman.
  • Pushes for end to U.S. support for Israeli escalation in the region; “time to end unconditional U.S. support for genocide.”
  • On domestic hate crimes: calls out both antisemitism and Islamophobia, stresses the responsibility of public figures to calm rhetoric, not incite division.
  • On money in politics: Lander passed the “Independent Expenditure Disclosure Act” in NYC, advocates for greater national transparency on super PAC funding and donor disclosure.
• Notable Exchange (79:57):
  • Ryan Grim: “She said, ‘I philosophically don’t have a problem with raising taxes on the wealthy.’ That is, is that a, is that a new, is that, is that hopeful for the Mamdani camp?”
  • Brad Lander: “It is. I agree. That’s the first time that I have heard Governor Hochul say something that indicates room for compromise with the legislature here.”

---

6. Broader Reflections: Decline of American Empire

• The hosts make historical parallels and critique U.S. behavior as repeating the “declining empire” syndrome—grow more violent externally and internally while projecting power to mask insecurity and weakness (48:05+).
• Krystal Ball (48:05): “It is a recorded historical fact that empires which are in decline become more violent, both externally and internally… the moment that illusion collapses, that is the moment that the empire actually ends.”

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ryan Grim (11:28): “It’d be like going in and like Iran killing the, like, governor of Mississippi and being like, we did regime change. Mississippi be like, no, the lieutenant governor is now the governor.”
• Krystal Ball (12:47): “You’ve convinced your Gulf Arab allies that having these US bases in their country has been a disaster for them and made them a target rather than providing them protection.”
• Emily Jashinsky (32:28): “It’s seen as like a generational opportunity by the Lindsey Grahams here in the United States. And so if Israel is viewing the opportunity to topple Iran completely, totally, wholly that way, then I don’t think it’s foolish… to escalate, escalate, escalate.”
• Krystal Ball (38:50): “I think the US is going to be the ones to escalate the next level and put boots on the ground. I think that’s where this is almost inevitably going.”
• Brad Lander (59:09): “The fact that American taxpayer dollars are being used to light the Middle east on fire…thousands of people are dead, including hundreds of kids at that school, including US service members… and for what? The American public is against it. Where is Congress being allowed her to stop it? Article 1 of the Constitution says Congress decides whether we declare war. It is outrageous, and I’m outraged.”
• Krystal Ball (78:06): “When you create that perception, then yes, that is going to create more, more danger and more risk for all sorts of Jewish people.”

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:22 – 06:04: Pete Hegseth defends U.S. strategy, “Peace through strength”
• 06:53 – 12:05: Debate over Iranian regime, leadership, misguided expectations for air campaigns
• 14:58 – 17:54: U.S. aircraft losses and suspicious incidents
• 23:46 – 26:15: Iranian missile capability, war of attrition, limitations of U.S./Israeli strategy
• 29:03 – 32:28: Munitions depletion, U.S. economic/strategic pressure points, domestic implications
• 32:28 – 40:14: Israeli strategy, nuclear risks, escalation fears
• 48:05 – 52:37: Historical parallels, declining U.S. empire
• 58:45 – 85:43: Brad Lander interview—war accountability, sectarian violence, big money in politics, NY tax/wealth debates

---

Tone and Style

The hosts maintain a critical, urgent, sometimes sarcastic tone—directed at U.S. government and military decisions, the political-media class, and the broader lack of honest, clear objectives in U.S. foreign policy. The language is candid, topical, and infused with both historical context and contemporary skepticism. Interview sections, particularly with Brad Lander, pivot to a more earnest, values-driven style, emphasizing empathy for victims of violence, the importance of civil liberties, and the urgent need for accountability—both foreign and domestic.

---

TL;DR

• The U.S. war with Iran is spiraling: airstrikes fail to degrade Iran’s capacity, U.S. munitions are depleted, casualties mount, and there’s no clear endgame.
• Israel is pushing for maximal escalation, with nuclear use not out of the question, while the U.S. establishment waivers, and the hosts warn of possible boots on the ground as the next phase.
• At home, anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish violence spikes in parallel with the war, stoked by political rhetoric; Brad Lander calls for robust civil liberties and real accountability.
• U.S. imperial credibility and economic hegemony are at serious risk; the “declining empire” syndrome rears its head as foreign and domestic crises multiply.
• Major political money from AIPAC/Israel lobby looms over key Democratic primaries, tested by insurgent, antiwar candidates like Brad Lander.

Transcript

[Krystal Ball]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Public Ad Read]

Guaranteed Human support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures [e-mail] when people turn to

[Ryan Grim]

telehealth for weight loss, they're looking for real support.

[Public Ad Read]

That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com orderly meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer.

[Ryan Grim]

That's orderlymeds.com podcast.

[Public Ad Read]

Individual results may vary. Not medical advice, eligibility required.

[Ryan Grim]

See site for details.

[Orderly Meds / Redfin Ad Read]

There's a difference between liking a house and actually getting it. Redfin is built to make up that difference and close the gap between finding and owning the home for you. Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents, so when you find a home you love, you're not a step behind when it comes to making an offer. That means less watching great homes disappear and more focus on the one you'll call home. Redfin helps turn saved listings into real addresses. Get [e-mail] own the dream hey guys,

[Emily Jashinsky]

Sager and Crystal here.

[Krystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Emily Jashinsky]

This is the only place where you

[Ryan Grim]

can find honest perspectives from the left

[Emily Jashinsky]

and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Krystal Ball]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Emily Jashinsky]

We need your help to build the

[Mac Call]

future of independent news media and we

[Krystal Ball]

hope to see you@breaking points.com Morning everybody. Happy Friday. How's everybody feeling this morning?

[Mac Call]

Doing good?

[Krystal Ball]

Excellent. Got a lot to get to. Hegseth was given a update this morning. We have another American plane that has crashed in mysterious circumstances and more service members as a result of that crash, killed in action. Brad Lander is going to join us for an update on his campaign. We've got an horrible update on those IDF soldiers who were caught on camera raping a Palestinian detainee. So lots to get to this morning. But Mac, if we could go ahead and start with some of the comments this AM from Pete Hegseth given an update on the Iran war and exactly how it's going. As in many ways, you know, from the outside, it appears to be going quite poorly and quite sideways. But let's go ahead and take a listen to this.

[Pete Hegseth]

Maximized and our capabilities still building. We're going up, they're going down. As I said from the start, President Trump holds the cards. He'll determine the pace, the tempo and the timing of this conflict, his hand firmly on the wheel as well as on the throttle, setting America first, peace through strength in action. From day one, as our nation expects and the president demands, our warriors have fought with lethality, precision and rapid innovation. In fact, today will be yet again the highest volume of strikes that America has put over the skies of Iran and Tehran. The number of sorties, number of bomber pulses, the highest yet. Ramping up and only up.

[Krystal Ball]

Ramping up and only up. And Mack, he also got asked if you could pull this up about the the Strait of Hormuz and why there hadn't been planning for this. In fact, there are reports now that the political leadership of the US at least really underplayed the prospect that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormu. The Navy has said we are not in a position to escort any of these oil tankers through Iran continues. We covered yesterday to, you know, be able to attack tankers that do come close. So let's go ahead and listen to how he responds to this.

[Brad Lander]

You have said that the US Military

[Ryan Grim]

has essentially aerial superiority, naval superiority over Iran, yet we're not escorting ships to

[Mac Call]

The Strait of Fort Muth. Why?

[Brad Lander]

How did you not plan for this?

[Pete Hegseth]

We plan for it. We recognize it. Because ultimately we want to do it sequentially in a way that makes the most sense for what we want to achieve and ensure that we're sending the right signals to the world when we do so. So when Chris Wright speaks or we speak, it's based on a full assessment of what we're up against, what we want to say to the world, how we want them to see and understand the conflict. It's like this whole idea of the war widening. That's what the press wants to make it look like. Like it's widening and chaos is ensuing. No, we're actually closing in on grabbing hold of and controlling what. What objectives we want to achieve and how we want to achieve them. Shape. It's called shaping operations and setting the conditions. But when you shape the environment, you don't always tell. I mean, foolish political leaders and foolish military leaders of the past will hang an exact deadline on it. Or here's exactly when we'll do what we're going to do, or here's how long it's going to take us. And then if you meet that, maybe you meet it. But if you don't, you fail. And if you're far beyond. We know exactly what we're shaping and why we're sending those signals. Working across the inner agency. The Strait of Hormuz is something we've paid attention to from the beginning. And the American people can rest assured we will ensure that our interests are advanced.

[Krystal Ball]

So you shouldn't go on aquarium plan, guys.

[Emily Jashinsky]

The straight of her moves is something we've paid attention to from the beginning.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

As a US Owned tanker is, you know, set ablaze. And he mentions there Chris Wright and of course you and Ryan. Emily covered the fact that he put out that tweet. Oh. The Navy escorted a ship through a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, then had to delete the tweet. So all. All going according to plan. According to.

[Mac Call]

It's definitely not a regional war, definitely not a world war going on here. Everything is fine. We're condensing it and bringing it all together.

[Krystal Ball]

That's right. Let's play one more from. From Mr. Hegset before we get to some of the additional updates here. He made a comment, the Iranian leaders saying that right now they are hiding like rats. Let's take a listen to that.

[Pete Hegseth]

Iran's leadership is in no better shape. Desperate and hiding. They've gone underground. Cowering. That's what rats do we know? The new so called, not so supreme leader is wounded and likely disfigured. He put out a statement yesterday, a weak one, actually, but there was no voice and there was no video. It was a written statement. He called for unity. Apparently killing tens of thousands of protesters is his kind of unity.

[Krystal Ball]

So he says they're, they're hiding underground like rats. Mack. Meanwhile, actually, in a show of pretty extreme courage and defiance, a number of top Iranian, both military and political leaders, including the President of Iran, were marching through the streets of Tehran during a pro government march. And no security detail, you know, as their country is, is being bombed. You know, especially when, when you think about, you know, you would never see Trump just marching through a crowd of Americans here without the country being bombed. It was a pretty, pretty extraordinary show of defiance there.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I would say they're probably resigned to the likelihood that their fate is in the balance at this moment. It reminds me of, Ryan, your debate with Corey Mills on Piers Morgan yesterday, where he said, he said the people are in the streets clamoring for Reza Pahlavi for the Shah to return. And clearly it's as though he has only seen the footage of the people in the streets clamoring for the Shah to return and not the footage of people in the streets backing the irgc, backing the Iranian regime, which is basically what we just saw in the images Mac put up on the screen. You really. What did you tell him, Ryan? It was like an elementary school foreign policy.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. He's like, we're gonna kill this bad guy. We're gonna kill that bad guy, and then we're gonna put Reza in and it's gonna be great. And he's gonna, then we're gonna transition to democracy. I don't know if you have it, Mac, but I think it's on Maz's Twitter feed. There's this, there's also this incredible footage of Israel bombing very close to this rally. So all these, all these people are out in the streets and you see this, you know, miniature mushroom cloud from an explosion in the, in the short distance, and the crowd just kind of cheers, you know, this, with this, like, you know, shout of defiance. So, yes, far from, I think, cowering like rats in a cave or whatever. Yeah, here it is. Yeah, there's a lot of people who

[Emily Jashinsky]

risk their lives for the regime. Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And I've talked about this before. In September, when Possesskian, the Iranian president, was in New York, he had a little press briefing that I was part of in Manhattan, and he Said then he kind of talked openly about the fact that he's probably going to get killed. And he said there was a lot he still wanted to do with his life. A lot he wanted to read, a lot he wanted to do. See, he wasn't at all looking forward to that. And it was kind of surreal to hear him talk about that in a way where he doesn't have a fatal cancer diagnosis, but is still talking about that he likelihood of him dying at any moment. There were a lot of rumors that he'd been killed in the first hours of the war. Those rumors were untrue. But he said that they had developed a succession plan that was six or seven people deep. And it really goes to the folly of that, of the Corey Mills approach to this. Like, so they could. If. If that. If that bombing that. That Mac just played had instead landed right on the crowd where Possesskin was and killed him. It doesn't end the regime remotely. In fact, IRGC doesn't really like Possesskian. They think he's far too liberal, far too much a reformist, and, like, pops off and says stuff that he then has to backtrack from. Because they have a political system with rivals, rival camps, rival factions. It's horizontal. It's deeply embedded in the country. It'd be like going in and like Iran killing the, like, governor of Mississippi and being like, we did regime change. Mississippi be like, no, the lieutenant governor is now the governor. Like, we have. We have a state house, We've got a state senate. We have all these, like, mayors. And in cities, like, you what they're like, no, we have a guy in Tehran.

[Krystal Ball]

You know, he's gonna come over. Yeah, he's really.

[Ryan Grim]

Bob. Governor. He's. We've been grooming him to be the king of Mississippi. And then there'll be a transition back to democracy.

[Krystal Ball]

People are gonna welcome him with open up. He'll be treated as a liberator.

[Mac Call]

People like what?

[Ryan Grim]

No, not.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, think about your example. Just to. To think about it from another perspective. You know, Hegseth is up there bragging of, oh, my God, we're bombing this, we're bombing that. We're showing no mercy. It's playing field. We never meant it for it to be a fair playing field. No one is under any illusion about the fact, yes, America can bomb the hell out of any place. Is that accomplishing your goals?

[Pete Hegseth]

Right?

[Krystal Ball]

What even are your goals? Because they change every day. So there's no way to even say if you're accomplishing any particular goal. But you know, by any objective, rational assessment right now, what you have is this situation where Iran is actually much more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon given the opportunity. You have a new Ayatollah in charge who is reportedly more hardline. You are destroying your own economy with the, you know, with the. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil prices going up. By the way, there's some speculation that treasury may actually be intervening to try to suppress oil prices. That's unconfirmed, but I think that is very much a shorting.

[Brad Lander]

They're shorting.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Right. You've convinced your Gulf Arab allies that having these U.S. bases in their country has been a disaster for them and made them a target rather than providing them protection. But in any case, you know, let's say you drop that bomb, like you said, Ryan, right, on the Iranian president there and a bunch of civilians get killed as well. Do you think that's going to lead the civilian population to then rise up against the Iranian government, or do you think that is going to further unite them against the US And Israel and the countries that are attacking them and murdering them? Because that's the other thing that you're seeing. And there's a piece in the Financial Times, and this is just basic logic and also, you know, reflects the history of a hundred years of these air campaigns where not a single time has it worked for just an air campaign to successfully effectuate regime change. And it didn't work in Gaza either, by the way. But in any case, yeah, people are much more likely to unify and rally around the flag and say, I may not like this government, but I do like, you know, being able to send my kids to school. I do like not having my country bombed by these, you know, by these foreign countries. And so the, you know, the idea that you were just gonna bomb the hell out of this place and be able to effectuate whatever ends that they thought they're gonna be able to effectuate is just utterly preposterous.

[Ryan Grim]

And did you see, by the way, Jim Cramer, too incredible not to make sure that there's nobody in the country who hasn't seen Jim Cramer's post? He said, they are taunting us with $200 oil. They do not have the cards. Our military must be unleashed. Time to do what we did to Hanoi to get them to the table. And then it's one of the best community notes in Twitter history. The US Lost the Vietnam War and had to withdraw.

[Krystal Ball]

FYI, in case you were

[Emily Jashinsky]

in Vietnam,

[Ryan Grim]

boys, yeah, we relentlessly bombed Hanoi we did like, we absolutely did like we can do that. We killed probably millions of Vietnamese. Like we have the capacity to do that. But.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And you'll lose a lot of Americans too. You'll lose a lot of Americans too.

[Krystal Ball]

And to that point, Emily, we have four more confirmed deceased in the loss of this refueling aircraft that went down yesterday in western Iraq. They say four of six crew members is of course the official statement from CENTCOM here. Four of six crew members on board the aircraft confirmed deceased as rescue efforts continue, meaning the other two crew members not accounted for. The circumstances of the incident are under investigation. However, the loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire. The identity of the service members are being withheld currently. And so this marks the fourth American aircraft that has crashed in strange or mysterious circumstances. And now we, you know, have a mounting death toll here. We also had Sagar and I covered yesterday that they had originally covered up the number of significant casualties coming out of that, that first day of, of strikes where you know a number of our service members were killed and several more succumbed to their wounds. They covered up the numbers there and now we have more details about additional casualties, you know flown out to receive care which is an indication of the you know, severity of the wounds that they suffered. So you know the government is lying to us about the, the casualty numbers. That much is proven at this point. And so I don't think it is conspiratorial to, to wonder if you're getting the straight story about all of these various American aircraft that keep randomly falling out of the sky but definitely have nothing to do with you know, with Iranian action.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well and we learned in the the Reuters follow up to the initial report of injuries in this was the base I believe it was also had traumatic effects on like traumatic brain injuries from service members like life altering injuries. Not you know the, the deaths are bad enough and then you add to it service members who have been maimed, their lives changed forever. And we didn't know about that until we got the follow up. So already I mean wreaking serious devastation on Americans serving abroad.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. And two weird incidents to involving our two different of our aircraft carriers. We've got this incident involving the USS Abraham Lincoln. They say an Iranian vessel sailed too closely. A use US Navy vessel attempted to fire on the Iranian vessel using its Mark 45 gun mounted to the forward deck but missed multiple times and ultimately a helicopter had to come in and hit it with hellfire missiles. So that's you know not a, not a great Sign that we were just repeatedly missing this Iranian vessel. And then you have this one, the Gerald Ford which I believe this is the one that had all of the bathroom toilet problems.

[Mac Call]

Yeah, the overflowing pee and poop on the ship.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, yeah. The, the, the pee and poop carrier. They experienced a fire now that originated they say in the ship's main laundry spaces. The cause of the fire was not combat related and is contained. No damage to the ship's propulsion plant. Aircraft carrier remains fully operational. Two sailors currently receiving medical treatment for non life threatening injuries are in stable condition. Additional info will be provided when available. Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group currently operating in the Red Sea in support of Operation Epstein Fury.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, you gotta, gotta clean out the lint sailors. Come on. What are you doing?

[Mac Call]

Especially I mean do you guys buy that, that line there or do you think there's something else going on here? I mean we've now had three fighter jets down to.

[Ryan Grim]

There is the reporting from Iraq is that it was an Iraqi militia that is linked to Iran that is taking responsibility for downing this well and it's

[Mac Call]

not like they're even giving a plausible explanation otherwise they're just saying one of them, one of the. The planes went down and the other one successfully managed to make its way back.

[Ryan Grim]

I mean I just understand why these refueling accidents don't happen more often. Like it's kind of insane.

[Mac Call]

It is a crazy operation.

[Ryan Grim]

As fast as they are, you know, 20, 30 yards away or whatever from each other that they are. However it doesn't. They. They're good, they're extremely good at this. But if you are getting fired at by a militia from the ground, you know, maybe they took some evasive maneuver, maybe that, maybe it's somewhere in the middle. Maybe they were getting fired at, they took some evasive maneuvers but because they were kind of locked into each other that caused them to crash. I don't, I don't know. And, and the, the militia made all might also have just seen the news and then rushed to take credit for it. But even though that's also possible, this

[Emily Jashinsky]

is for a war that has like 40% opposition in most polling. Somewhere around that which is we're. We're less than two weeks in and

[Ryan Grim]

in Iraq probably got more than that.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And one of the arguments that people have made for many years of why it's a really bad idea to attack Iran is that the Shia Iraqi population is pretty sympathetic to Iran. We have significant assets still in Iraq. We need Iraqi airspace. That it just adds one more tactical problem for the US There. So it's, you know, you got the green zone, you got the big mission there that can be shelled and attacked. All of these bases produce, you know, you can project power from them, but they're also, you know, spaces of vulnerability as well.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, well, and to that point, you know, Pete Hexat, the. The Secretary of War tells us this is not a widening conflict, this is a shrinking conflict. And yet you have the IRGC claiming that it's once again been able to strike the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. IRGC saying its navy launched two waves of missile and drone strikes early today targeting the headquarters of the US fifth Fleet. They claim the attack hit anti drone systems, drone storage depots, support equipment, fuel tanks, and areas where U. S. Personnel were gathered. Kamikaze drones. I don't know that we have confirmation on this, but this is the, the footage that is circulating that, you know, claims to be part of these attacks. We also have a French soldier who was killed after a French base in Iraq was hit. And then this, to me, guys, was one of the most important pieces of news that came out yesterday. You know, what we've been hearing from this administration is that, you know, we're, they're in a game of, it's a. Of war, of attrition effectively, and they are degrading the Iranian capability to be able to launch these missiles. And so, yes, you've got these pesky drones and we don't really know how to deal with that. But the more significant missiles were mostly intercepting them, and we are destroying their launchers so that they will no longer be able to launch these missiles at all. Well, yesterday we get this piece of news. According to Bloomberg here, Iran's missile launcher arsenal holds steady despite strikes. The number of Iranian missile launchers has held steady after a week of unrelenting airstrikes, according to Israeli and Western estimates. Indicating the difficulty of finding small mobile targets without having complete control of the skies. IDF officials said Thursday two thirds of the Islamic Republic's launchers had been destroyed. That's little change from the 60% reported last week to Western estimates on Thursday. Also put the number of destroyed at 60%, with one adding that as much of 80% of Iran's total offensive capability had been destroyed. They are, of course, key to Iran's ability to fire its large supply. And then you have an analyst who says it's likely the Iranians are adapting tactics. Quite possible they're just preserving launchers by slowing down operations and focusing more on shahids and this is kind of the whole ball game because you're, you know, from the military analysts that I've heard, you're basically in a race between, okay, are the interceptors going to run out so that they, you know, have to be rationed, etc, by the US and by Israel, or is the Iranian ability to launch these missiles going to be degraded? Which one of those things is going to happen first? And so this is a pretty dire sign for the, the U.S. and Israel. And again, it's not that we're, it's not that the US can't continue to bomb the hell out of Iran, but if you actually want to accomplish your goals, which certainly at this point, one of the goals has to be reopening the Strait of Hormuz, you are not going to be able to accomplish that through air power alone. And the Iranians are going to continue to be able to, you know, to strike some significant blows, both using ballistic missiles and the, the Shahid drones, which, you know, have proven to be fairly, fairly effective in causing problems and creating damage throughout the region.

[Mac Call]

Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I'm curious what you make of that. You guys make of that? The only thing I'll just add really quickly is we still don't even know if our goal of our quote, objective in the war is, has anything to do with missile capacity or if it has any to do with the nuclear capacity. So it's like, I don't even know by our own stated goal, our own ambition, because it's all over the place how significant this is or not. I mean, obviously for the tactical reasons crystal laid out, it's significant. But yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Chris Murphy, the Democratic senator who was briefed by, you know, top military officials and intelligence leaders, said that that seemed to be the thing that they were falling back on now as the actual kind of objective of the war was to degrade the missile and other productive capacity. And he said, he asked, well, what happens if they rebuild it or buy more from China? And they hinted, well, maybe then we'll bomb them again in six months, which then gets to mow the lawn. Yeah, it gets to Iran's strategy, which is they want to make this so painful for the US that we think twice about getting the lawnmower back out six months from now. And to give Jeremy Scale a little credit, I think it was Tuesday that he and Maz reported and got a lot of pushback at the time. They reported that the Iranian plan was to dial down the attacks on Gulf countries, zero in on two particular Gulf countries, but then focus most of their Fire on Israel for, you know, for the, you know, for the next phase of this war. And that was. They were like, no, that's, you know, there was a lot of pushback on that, but that was, that's precisely what unfolded to a T for the rest of the week. They're now even firing missiles from sea. Iran is so, you know, Hegseth is going around saying, you know, we're hitting all their launchers they can.

[Krystal Ball]

Destroyed. Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

You know, they start to move them and boom, we get them. It's like, well, they're shooting them out of the water at you, bro. Like, yeah, you need, you need another solution. Then we're just going to keep bombing them because they have an almost. And they talk about, you know, they had 2000, whatever ballistic missiles, 2500, and they've shot, you know, seven, 800 of them at this point. So the Americans are kind of sort of like, oh, if we can just get to that 2000, then they're out. But they have an almost unlimited number of the shorter range ones like that can't get to Israel necessarily, but can hit around the region. So they can't bomb them. They can't wait this out or bomb them into, you know, complete surrender.

[Mac Call]

Well, and to that point as well, it's not like the Iranians haven't already inflicted significant damage on US Assets, bases and radar systems and satellite systems in the Gulf countries as well as in Israel. We even saw Hezbollah reportedly struck a satellite system inside of northern Israel. So they've kind of already inflicted a significant amount of damage in terms of taking out the eyes and the ears of the US And Israel. And then you also have with the Strait of Hormuz, like, if Iran's broader strategy here is just to inflict maximum economic pain on the US and the global economy to make this something that we wouldn't consider doing in the future. It's not like they need to be firing dozens or hundreds of missiles into the Strait of Hormuz. They just need, like, you know, I think it's a 16 ships at this point that have been hit. You just need kind of one a day, maybe one every couple of days to reinforce the idea that the insurance companies are not going to back up these ships. The US at this point is still rejecting any sort of idea of a naval escort of some of these ships. You really don't need that much firepower in order to continue inflicting that economic pain on the US In a, in a protracted sort of war situation.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And they're still getting oil through the Strait. That, that was the argument for why the US didn't focus on the Strait of Hormuz. They're like, oh, we, we never thought they'd close it because they need it. They didn't think of the idea that, oh, they'll just keep sending their own ships through to China.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, it's, we've been monitoring it since the very beginning.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. Where they've been exporting more oil, increased the amount of oil that they are exporting since the beginning of this war. And military analysts say if you actually wanted to do this thing, that they floated of, you know, the Navy escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, in order to make that feasible, you would actually have to invade and occupy the coastline. That's what that would require. So that's why, you know, this hasn't been done. Because we, you know, as of yet, as far as we know, don't have boots on the ground in Iran. Although, you know, I think I saw somebody make a good point on Twitter, which is, listen, we have tens of thousands of service members throughout the the region, which is where this, you know, these battles are being waged throughout the region. So we do have boots on the ground, just not directly in the, the country of Iran. This is another, you know, key piece that we've been, we've been warning about even before this war and going back to, you know, our conversations about Ukraine, et cetera, they're saying US has burned through years of munitions since of the Iran war. Rapid depletion of stockpile, including Tomahawk missiles raises pressure on Trump over the cost of the conflict. Congress was brief that it's cost over $11 billion already. You know, as we're in just week two of this war. Ryan, I thought you had a good point about this though. If you burn through years worth of munitions in mere days, that was not actually years worth of munitions.

[Ryan Grim]

Might have taken you years to make, but it wasn't years of munitions, it was not yours. Years worth of food just in one sitting. That wasn't your food, guy.

[Krystal Ball]

I just took it down in one meal.

[Ryan Grim]

You didn't have as much food as you thought. You might have been told by, you know, Lockheed that that's what year's worth. Yeah.

[Public Ad Read]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thinking thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures when

[Krystal Ball]

people turn to healthcare for weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com

[Orderly Meds / Redfin Ad Read]

orderly meds connects you with real doctors

[Krystal Ball]

and access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzepatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice, eligibility required. See Cite for details.

[Orderly Meds / Redfin Ad Read]

Let's talk about modern home shopping. It's sort of become a fun side hobby, right? Scrolling listings at night, dreaming about kitchens you've never seen or backyards you haven't even stepped foot in. All from the comfort of pretty much anywhere. Redfin knows a lot of people like you want to own but are stuck in this browsing mode loop. That's where Redfin flips the script with listings that update within minutes and tours you can book right from the Redfin app. You can see your dream home the moment it appears. Now, liking a listing is easy, but actually landing it? That's where Redfin comes in. Redfin has over 2200 agents with local expertise, and Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents. That means they want to help you win, not just window shop. Redfin is built to help you go from just looking to wait. This could actually be home. So become the newest neighbor on the block. Visit redfin.com to start finding and start owning. That's redfin.com

[Mac Call]

well, I'm also curious what you guys think about. You know the potential for nuclear weapons being deployed by Israel specifically or potentially from the United States, because I think this might be the kind of moment where Israel feels like it's their last best chance to topple the Iranian government or to fragment Iran. That's already happened a few different states. But, like, do you, do you think that there's a legitimate likelihood that Israel could feel like, okay, maybe we're not going to get a couple months down the line a chance to do this again, there's not going to be as much of an appetite from the Americans, et cetera. Where do you guys stand on that right now?

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, this is reported. I mean, this is already leaking into reports about the tension between Israel, Netanyahu and Trump, being that Israel and Netanyahu want to push this pedal to the metal as the opportunity to totally defenestrate Iran, take care of Iran. And Trump doesn't, according to reports, isn't entirely on board with that. May he become on board with that, perhaps. But this is seen as like a generational opportunity. It's certainly seen as like a generational opportunity by the Lindsey Grahams here in the United States. And so if Israel is viewing the opportunity to topple Iran completely, totally, wholly that way, then I don't think it's foolish, especially because they've already pushed the United States beyond apparently what even members of the Trump administration, including Dan Cain, are entirely comfortable with, to escalate, escalate, escalate. So, you know, just even talking about that gets people treated as, as fear mongers and fools. But again, the pattern that we are seeing here is escalation. Escalation. Is Israel seeing this as a historic generational opportunity to wholly topple an enemy. And so, again, I don'. Think max question is silly or foolish at all. We should be completely vigilant. That is exactly how these things spiral. First to boots on the ground and then the goalpost keeps moving and moving. You're losing people. The United States wants to avenge. The American people start saying, well, we just, they just killed 10 of our guys. And it spirals and spirals. We've seen it before. So I don't think it's foolish at all, Mac, to even ask that question.

[Mac Call]

Well, and you also have, just as in addition to that, that to take it into, to take Iran's positioning into account in this, because it's categorically different than the June 2025 war that lasted for, for 12 days. Because at that point, Israel, the United States asked for a ceasefire. The Ayatollah was sort of, you know, pliant to that sort of idea. And then now you have two different instances at this point where the US and Iran have been in the middle of negotiations and Israel and the United States have launched, launched unilateral wars of aggression against them. So like, what motivation does Iran have at this point right now to even hypothetically consider stopping the war? Given that it seems like that might just give Israel and the United States a chance to restock over the course of a couple months and then come back and do it again. Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

And I, I asked Jeremy this question. What is, what does it look like to them to have extracted enough costs so that they feel comfortable? It could be some actual out loud promises from the US that they make in coordination with the, with Russia and China and the UN or it could just be a sense that, that this is going to be something that the American political system feels for two decades. But I don't know that it's, it's a very good question. I gotta run.

[Krystal Ball]

Professor. Yeah, Ryan, we'll let you go. Thank you so much for joining us. And we've got a few more Iran updates that we want to get to. And I also want to react to max question about, about nukes. But have a good weekend, Ryan.

[Ryan Grim]

We'll see you soon.

[Krystal Ball]

Great work. You know that Professor Mohammed Morandi, he says that the Iranian mindset is we're at least going to make this go till the midterms because, you know, they're keenly aware of the political situation here in the US they're keenly aware that Trump is, was already on thin ice with the population over the Epstein cover up. They talk a lot about the Epstein class. They're quite, you know, intelligently and strategically and you know, I think they want to make sure that he fully pays politically a massive political price for what's going on here. And that frankly the American people are gonna, you know, are gonna pay a massive economic price and that, you know, and extract that pain from, from all of us.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Crystal, I think you should, you should first apologize for just using an anti Semitic slur. I don't know if you did this on, on purpose, but you just referred to the Epstein class and I was

[Krystal Ball]

reliable to you only quoting the Iranians in there, you know, but Epstein class,

[Emily Jashinsky]

this is now, and I'm not like, I'm really not joking, this is actually now being called a dog whistle class, a dog whistle, anti Semitic slur.

[Krystal Ball]

So yeah, Ro Khan is getting all kinds of hatchet jobs, you know, written about him for coining the term and for daring to push for, for accountability. But I wanted to, to return to this question, Mac, that you asked about nukes. I do. I don't think it's a foolish question. I think there's definitely a possibility we get there. I don't personally think that we're there yet because, you know, true Trump. I, I think Trump probably wants to taco at this point. Tree to Parsi was saying that he's heard from the Gulf Arab partners is that Trump had told them this will take about four days. Obviously, that is not what worked out. I think that's what Trump believed. I think he did think he could do a Venezuela here, in and out quick, mission accomplished. Prove all the haters and the doubters and the losers wrong. Yeah. And move on to the next thing. Obviously that hasn't happened happen now. I think he would love to try to figure out some way out of this thing, but not at the expense of losing face like Trump. And the American empire cannot lose face here. So, you know, if we say, okay, we're done, you know, one benefit of not establishing any goals is you can, you know, then make up some goal after the, oh, we, we wanted to degrade their launcher capacity. We did it. So we're leaving. Mission accomplished. But the problem with that is that the Iranians, they get a say in this. And the Israelis apparently get a say in this too, because, you know, allegedly their commitment to attacking Iran is part of why we decided to jump into this thing. But the Iranians certainly get a say. And I don't think, to your point, Mag, I don't think there's any reason it would be foolish, frankly, for them at this point to back away when you have us in a lot of ways by the neck. You know, they've got our, their boot on the throat of our economy and, and they're able to inflict damage in Israel and they're able to extract pain from the, the Gulf allies that have allowed, you know, these attacks to, to originate from their, their soil. They'd be foolish to walk away from that. So, you know, the reason I don't think we're there yet in terms of, you know, potential Israel potentially using a quote, unquote tactical nuke is because I think the US Is going to be the ones to escalate the next level and put boots on the ground. I think that's where this is almost inevitably going. I mean, the Iranians have said they're targeting US And Israeli banks in the region City and HSBC and others have had to evacuate their personnel. They've said they're, they consider the tech companies to be complicit in this and for them to be targets as well. And then obviously we've talked, you know, at length about the straight of Horus and the oil markets, etc. There is simply no way, way that our country is going to allow them to threaten these centers of financial capital and not escalate to the next level. So I'm fairly convinced that we will likely end up with boots on the ground and that will be the next step up the escalation chain. Now, as we continue up that chain, does it then become more and more likely that, you know, either us or Israel frankly decides that there are only way out of this thing is to go World War II style and drop some sort of a bomb to send sort of a message. And then that is, God, that's a whole Pandora's box. But, you know, the nuclear taboo is strong enough that I feel like we aren't, we aren't there yet in terms of that being the next logical move now, you know, 10 steps down the road, do we get there? That I think is an open possibility, but at least I'm hoping we're not there yet.

[Mac Call]

Yeah. And to your point, Crystal, I think this is why we've seen Trump sort of bobbling back and forth between saying the war's all close to done and we've kind of already won the war and we've achie victory and then bouncing. But, you know, maybe we need to do a little bit more and it's not done yet. I think he is in some sense trying to lay the groundwork for a taco move or to, to pull out and claim victory, because he's already completely changed the definition of what victory would mean. I mean, we started out here with the US and the Israelis seemingly on the same page in regards to regime change, in regards to the complete destruction of their ballistic missile capacity and production capacity, destruction of their entire navy. You know, all of these different elements that it seems like, like Trump has sort of backed off of almost entirely at this point. So that's sort of the one hopium that I have at this point is that he will just change the definition of victory and say, okay, we won, we're done with this. But again, then you have the Israel angle, which is, you know, are they going to give up what they view as their potential last major chance? Because after this, you know, I, I would imagine you're going to have increased backing and reinforcements with, with Russia and China and their relationship with Iran, obviously, as you said, Iran will have, have more of a motivation than ever to go and actually pursue a nuclear weapon for defensive purposes or for deterrent purposes. They're going to rebuild their ballistic missile stockpiles. They're going, you know, like, this isn't going anywhere in the long term magically. And so if Israel genuinely feels like this is the one chance they, you know, they might feel like they, they, you know, they might take that opportunity. I guess so. It's, it's terrifying. But Trump, I guess chickening out is like the one thing that we can, we can hope for, I guess.

[Krystal Ball]

Well, and everyone. And like I said, I don't think that ends the war. You know, I don't think Trump chickening out ends the war. That's, that is, that is the way he has trapped himself. He has now trapped himself. He, the taco has in a sense, been taken off the table because the Iranian taco has been removed from the menu because the Iranian, the logic that we have ourselves created did for the Iranians is we have to fight to the death. We have to extract a massive amount of pain. And I don't think they feel like they have done nearly enough to deter us and the Israelis in the future from just going back and doing the same thing over and over and over again.

[Mac Call]

Well, and that's one of the ironic things about killing the Ayatollah is he was in some sense more of a restrained figure, counter to, you know, the idea pushed by Israel in the US that he's this totally irrational, suicidal, you know, on a mission to destroy the entire region or whatever else. Like.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, he may have been suicidal, but.

[Mac Call]

Yes, well, sure, in some sense, yeah, because it seems like he was, he was willing to allow himself to be martyred. But, you know, if you hadn't killed the Ayatollah, you probably would have been in a much better position to do a sort of short back and forth operation. And maybe there would have been some sort of a groundwork to pull out of this. But like you said, Crystal, I mean, now that the Ayatollah has been killed, the new Ayatollah, his entire core family unit was wiped out. I mean, we've, we've made this war existential for Iran. And so they're going to try to make it existential, at least in terms of, of US Presence in the region for us as well.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, we were, all of us anti interventionists were being told to take a massive L after midnight hammer, which by the way I was happy to do. But, but for the last several months, what have we been saying? We were against Midnight Hammer because of the escalatory spiral and just because it took another six months or whatever to get to this part of the escalatory spiral. It's, it's not invalidating of the point that everybody made at the time, which is that this is, is what happens. You keep moving the goalposts and moving the goalposts and moving the goalposts and it's much easier to start a war than it is to end a war. Everybody knows that. And Trump, I think what we're seeing is his branding exercise of him now trying to define what victory looks like while also publicly doing his art of the deal negotiation by saying, we could keep going, we don't want to, we're just about done, we've already won, but we could keep going. We could keep going. So what that actually looks like now, I think we just literally have no idea because I don't think he has any idea. And it's, it's happening on a daily basis. Like what this definition is actually going to look like is shifting on a daily basis right now.

[Krystal Ball]

Let me tell you one more thing that I am concerned about before. I'm concerned about a nuclear weapon being deployed, which is there was a rabbi either during or immediately after the 12 day war who floated this idea of, hey, you know what I would have done, I would have ourselves as an Israeli bombed Al Aqsa mosque and then blamed it on Iran and allowed all hell to break loose and you know, then have the, you know, the different Muslim led countries in the region fighting Iran as well. And by the way, this gives us our chance to, you know, pursue our, our like into our own end times direction and rebuild the temple there and, and whatever. And I think that is, I don't think we could rule that out as a possibility. You know, the Israelis are already being accused of various false flag attacks in the region to strike like a half

[Emily Jashinsky]

mile away from Al Aqsa.

[Krystal Ball]

Exactly right. And that's, that's why I'm nervous about it is because the Israelis were advertising that of, look at these Iranians, these struck so close to Al Aqsa mosque. You know, isn't this crazy? And you can only imagine what would happen. And so, so that is something else that I am concerned about as a possibility here is that Israel could, you know, themselves bomb the mosque, then blame Iran and you know, create open that Pandora's box which would lead to, you know, another level of escalation and chaos, which is ultimately what the Israelis want. The Israelis are agents of chaos. They want chaos for the Iranians, they want chaos for all of the Gulf Arab states in the region. They want chaos for us because ultimately they, they, you know, Netanyahu went out and said, hey, this, this war is making us not just a global regional power, it's making us a superpower. A global superpower. And guess who that comes at the expense of? That's about us. Because outside of Iran and then you know, they talk about wanting to go after Turkey next. The other challenge to them in the region is us. Right. We're the other constraint on what they can do in the region. And they see the writing on the wall, they know the way the politics have changed. They know they're not going to get another president like Trump who lets them do what want to do in the same way. That's not happening. That's not happening again. So, so in any case, you know, I think it's important for people to understand when we talk about the goals and interests of the US And Israel not being totally aligned in terms of the Iran war in one of the ways that they're not aligned is that even though technically we're allies right now, ultimately Israel would love to see us in our capacity, our, in the region and our ability to constrain them. Them, they would love to see us degraded in that way as well.

[Mac Call]

Yeah, which is, it's, it's wild to watch in real time like the decline of the US empire in large part you could say, you know, due to the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan, these decades long projects that we've wasted trillions of dollars on, destroyed our reputation on the world stage, etc, and now this, this war with Iran, depending on how it goes, like this could be the final stage of American power projection in the region. This could be the destruction of the American empire, all in service of propping up the sort of Israeli empire in the Middle East. I mean we're willingly sort of destroying our own power dynamics on behalf of a foreign country. It's, it's just wild to see happen in real time.

[Krystal Ball]

You know what it makes me think of is we all know that guy who is deeply insecure in his masculinity and he's taking testosterone and he's soccer when he's not, he's buying a big old pickup truck and you know, he's

[Emily Jashinsky]

buying a Tesla, going to the gym

[Krystal Ball]

and you know, it all comes from this place of insecurity. And they, you know, act like a bully and they're lashing out and acting like the big tough guy on the block. I mean, that's the same thing as what declining empire. It's the same type of behavior. And not just us, but if you look throughout history. And so it is a recorded historical fact that empires which are in decline become more violent, both externally and internally. And, yeah, I mean, Trump is a particular figure, like I think he is. I. I don't think if we have a different president. I don't think if Kamala Harris is president, I don't think we're in this war right now. So he, you know, has a lot to do with what's going on. But also, if you just zoom out from his. Him as a character here and look at the historical trends, it is not surprising that we're lashing out at the world in these ways, desperately trying to prove that we're still the tough guy on the block, desperately trying to project that power and to save face. And I think that that impetus to like, to save face at all cost, it seems ridiculous, and it seems like it comes just out of Trump's particular, like, narcissism and ego as well. But it also is essential to the empire, because the moment that you puncture the illusion that we are all powerful, that we can do whatever we want, wherever we want, whenever we want to whoever we want, the moment that illusion collapses, that is the moment that the empire actually ends. And so to your point, Mac, about how this could actually end the American empire, that would be the reason why. Because the, you know, the people we've been pushing around all around the world will look at this and go, you know what? They're not so tough. Like, they're not so invincible. And maybe if we, you know, collectively get together, like, we don't need to take all of this bullying and this obnoxious behavior from them. They, you know, they are a paper tiger, and we can make our own moves and make our own decisions in the world without always having to. To, you know, having to bend to their will.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, the power of the military and the power of the dollar. I think we have a besant clip on oil mech to, to get to, if I'm remembering correctly. But this is, to me, that's one of the big questions or question marks about what happens to the American empire, depending on how long this goes. And what it looks like is, is what it does to the dollar, how the Trump administration ends when it comes to the dollar. And then next couple of years because that's a obviously critical component of the empire. It is tied to military power and military strength. Here is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. This was just last night saying the president's taking decisive steps to promote stability in global energy markets and working to keep prices low as we address the threat and instability posed by the terrorist Iranian regime. To increase the global reach of existing supply, treasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This narrowly tailored short term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction. President Trump's pro energy policies have driven US Oil and gas production to record levels, contributing to lower fuel prices for hardworking Americans. The temporary increase in oil prices is a short term and temporary disruption that will result in a massive benefit to our nation and a godd economy in the long term. And hanging over that obviously is the Trump administration's moves in the crypto space, the Trump administration's move to potentially devalue the dollar. All kinds of stuff happening in the background of this exercise in Iran right now that leave things also the trade war, but that just basically leave us in such. I can't, I mean it feels like things have been unstable for years, at least since 911 of course, but, and certainly since the dawn of nuclear weapons. But this is as shaky of an economy as I can remember. Mac and Crystal.

[Mac Call]

Well, and to your point earlier, Crystal, like in terms of the US maintaining this facade that we can crush whoever we want whenever and however we want. Like now you have this situation where we, we've been spending years trying to destroy the Russian economy in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine.

[Emily Jashinsky]

We are still, still guiding targets on the Russian military in Ukraine right now as we speak.

[Mac Call]

And so we, we failed to crush the Russian economy. They're still able at the bare minimum to continue the war going as as they see fit. And now you have, you've come full circle to where we're basically telling countries, okay, you can kind of skirt around the rules here a little bit, maybe buy a little bit of Russian oil in order to hold yourselves over as we do this completely unnecessary illegal war of aggression against Iran. So it's like in, on multiple different fronts over the course of the last couple of years, years, the US Empire has seen massive fractures that are being exposed within it. I think that's, that's another example of it.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, well, and, and listen, like we well, first of all, it's funny for Besson now to be like, we're committed to keeping prices low, when literally yesterday, Trump put on a true social that was like, high oil prices are great for the US I don't know what you people are complaining about. So. But in any case, and there is speculation that potentially Charger is intervening directly in the market markets to lower the price of oil, which I, I do think is a possibility. And look, we are, you know, net energy exporting country. There are additional levers that the Trump administration could use. They could actually say, like, we're, you know, there is a lever they could pull that says, we're not exporting this oil is only being used in the United States of America and screw you, rest of the world. You know, now we've effectively cut off your supply of Middle Eastern oil oil. We've curtailed your ability to use Russian oil. Good luck. So there is no doubt that actually other countries, especially poor countries around the world, will be hurt more by this than US Consumers will be. But there's also no doubt that there will be severe pain here at a time when the economy is incredibly rickety, when people say. Have been saying for years that their highest priority is the economy, when Trump ran on promises of affordability. And, you know, it's. It's a pretty grim. It's a pretty grim picture, especially when you consider how much our stock market is. I mean, our whole economy is just like a Ponzi scheme, you know, I mean, the whole stock market's built on this, like, theoretical AI boom that's really not proven in terms of its profitability that also, by the way, relies on access to cheap energy. So the whole thing is just.

[Mac Call]

And also massive investments from the Gulf states. States.

[Krystal Ball]

That's. That's absolutely right as well. That's absolutely right as well.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Which is before we move to premium. That's. That's, I guess, an argument. If someone was here doing Devil's Advocate, that would be an argument for the empire, that we continue to suck in the world with our financial schemes, like the investment, the Middle Eastern investment in crypto and the like.

[Mac Call]

Oh, but we'll, you know, we'll see how long that lasts because they might be rethinking a lot of those investments now. So that's another angle there.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Kushner hardest hit.

[Mac Call]

Do we want to move on here to the next next story here, guys?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, let's go ahead and. And shift gears to. We've got Brad Lander standing by to talk to us about his campaign in a New York City congressional district. He's in a Democratic primary against Dan Goldman, who is significantly to his right, especially on questions. Frankly, War and Peace, none of our relationship to Israel. So let's go ahead and get to that.

[Public Ad Read]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Members FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures when people turn to telehealth for weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com orderly meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive example experience and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com podcast Individual results may vary. Not medical advice.

[Ryan Grim]

Eligibility required. See site for details.

[Orderly Meds / Redfin Ad Read]

Let's talk about modern home shopping. It's sort of become a fun side hobby, right? Scrolling listings at night, dreaming about kitchens you've never seen or backyards you haven't even stepped foot in. All from the comfort of pretty much anywhere. Redfin knows a lot of people like you want to own but are stuck in this browsing mode loop. That's where Redfin flips the script with listings that update within minutes and tours you can book right from the Redfin app. You can see your dream home the moment it appears. Now, liking a listing is Easy, but actually landing it, that's where Redfin comes in. Redfin has over 2200 agents with local expertise. And Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents. That means they want to help you win. Not just window shop. Redfin is built to help you go from just looking to wait. This could actually be home. So become the newest neighbor on the block. Visit redfin.com to start finding and start owning. That's redfin.com

[Krystal Ball]

all right, everybody. We are fortunate to be joined this morning by Brad Lander. He, of course, is former New York City comptroller, former mayoral candidate, and current congressional candidate in New York City. Great to see you, sir.

[Ryan Grim]

Great to be on with you.

[Krystal Ball]

Have a bunch of things we want to get to here. There's a lot going on in New York City, the country and the world at large. First, wanted to just get your reaction to the war of choice in Iran.

[Brad Lander]

I'm. I mean, the fact that American taxpayer dollars are being used to light the Middle east on fire, that thousands of people are dead, including hundreds of kids at that school, including US service members, that we've made millions of refugees, three quarters of a million in Lebanon, probably over 2 million in Iran, that we've shredded American credibility in the world and are doing irreparable damage to international law. And for what? The American public is against it. Where is Congress being allowed her to stop it? Article 1 of the Constitution says Congress decides whether we declare war. It is outrageous, and I'm outraged.

[Ryan Grim]

So your opponent, Representative Dan Goldman, he voted for the war powers resolution that would have restricted Trump's war. All but four Democrats in the House and one in the Senate. Senate, you know, voted for that. But there's been a very long and wide kind of spectrum about how people are talking about the war. Some lead with, well, I, we understand, you know, Iran can't have a nuclear weapon and cite a lot of justifications for it and then say, but, you know, I don't trust Trump to wage this. Others have just said the war needs to end today. It was illegal to begin with. What, where are you on that spectrum? And what's the, what would you describe as the difference between you and your opponent on your approach to it?

[Brad Lander]

Yeah, I mean, the war needs to end today. We shouldn't spend any more money on it. And I am opposed to it. I mean, of course, the Iranian regime has repressed and killed its own people. Of course, there needs to be attention to making sure that they don't get a nuclear weapon. But we know from Our own Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that they weren't getting closer and that this was simply a war of choice. I mean, Marco Rubio said out loud that Netanyahu essentially baited Trump into this war. I've been real loud about it. My opponent voted for the War Powers Resolution, but has not been loud about it. And supporters of my opponent, I mean, he gets a lot of funding from AIPAC donors. AIPAC is cheerleading this war. So I think there's a pretty strong distinction.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. If, if we can talk for a moment about the attack on the synagogue in Michigan yesterday. What was your. And also there was another, there was another attack in, in Virginia. What was your immediate reaction? What's your reaction as you've learned more about, about what has happened, we can add it.

[Emily Jashinsky]

This is all on the heels of what happened outside Gracie Mansion. Obviously last week. There was immediately after the war began, Austin, Texas saw in an act of apparently terrorism. So it does seem like these events are popping up in some frequency just over the last, the first two weeks of this war.

[Brad Lander]

Yeah. So one of the rabbis at Temple Israel in West Bloomfield was a cabin counselor with me at a Jewish summer camp outside of Indianapolis in summer of 1987 after I graduated from high school. Josh Bennett's his name and actually his older brother was my rabbi and still is my parents rabbi in St. Louis. So this stuff is hitting pretty close to home. So my first reaction yesterday was like, shit, that's my friend in that synagogue. And thankfully, very quickly that incident was resolved thanks to the first responders. And mostly what was going on in that synagogue at that time was preschool. And people shouldn't be afraid to go pray or send their kids to preschool in synagogues or any other house of worship. Anti Semitism is on the rise and we have to call it out and work together to say it'll never be normal, it's gotta be safe. What are the local strategies people are taking? And it is also true that in the wake of war, violence gets more common. That never makes it okay. Not okay for ISIS inspired terrorists to throw, you know, incendiary devices near Gracie Mansion. Not okay for someone to drive a vehicle into a synagogue and then try to start shooting it up. Not okay for Tommy Tuberville and Randy Fine to go on Islamophobic rants on social media. Social media, you know, the responsibility, if you value human life and you care about people, is to tone down rhetoric, to try to normalize understanding, to condemn acts of hate. But one more consequence of launching a reckless and illegal war in Addition to all the damage that it's doing to millions of people, there is that it has this sort of diffuse effect of spreading and normalizing violence more broadly. So some responsibilities on the hand the people who started it.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Oh, God.

[Krystal Ball]

I was just gonna. I have this quote from you reacting to Tommy Tuberville, who is a senator, saying the enemy is inside the gates and posting pictures of 911 alongside Mayor Momdani. And you, you reacted to this pretty strongly. Said, I can't even find the words to express how repugnant and despicable this post is. People who spew such Islamophobic bile don't belong in the United States Congress. Job of elected officials to combat hate, not fan. Shame on Senator Tuberville. Keep New York City out of your bigoted mouth. This Jewish New Yorker is proud we elected our first Muslim mayor. We've seen similar comments from Randy Fine. A distressingly large number of Republicans when confronted with these sorts of comments, Republican elected officials, I should clarify, unable to fully say that, you know, that this is bigotry and call it out directly. Here's Congressman Randy Fine saying we need more Islamophobia, not less. Fear of Islam is rational. So, first of all, just your reaction to the extremely overtly bigoted nature of these comments. And also I'm wondering, you know, if this is. If you're experiencing this in New York City, this rise in overt Islamophobia, or if this is more of a national politician direction.

[Brad Lander]

Sadly, it's right here in New York City as well. We've got a city council member, Vicki Palladino, whose comments are right up there with Randy Fine and Tommy Tuberville. And, you know, the normalizing like to say is we need more Islamophobia. I mean, it is true on the one hand that there have been more antisemitic incidents and hate crimes than Islamophobic ones over the last, you know, couple of years. But no one is saying antisemitism is okay. How do we combat it? What do we do about it? How do we confront it? What is it? Who's responsible for it? What's its definition? All of those are debates and questions, but no one. I've heard one person say it's acceptable. It's all right. Hatred of Jews is rational. You know, we at least have a consensus that we're against Jew hatred. We're against anti Semitism, and we're gonna work to stop it. And lo and behold, senators and Congress members and council members of Republicans are here saying we're gonna fan the flames of hatred of Muslims in a city of that, you know, we got about a million and a half Jews. We got about a million Muslims. We have our first Muslim mayor. And yes, I am proud as a Jewish New Yorker to have supported him and that we elected our first Muslim mayor. That's what this city is, is a place that welcomes people from all over the world and takes people with different religious and faith traditions and makes us into New Yorkers. That's what's supposed to be true about America as well. That's why we have to work harder to, like, defeat Donald Trump. Trump. This blood and soil conservatism that is being in this case weaponized against our Muslim neighbors during Ramadan is really frightening. And it unfortunately is likely to lead to. They're just doing it on Twitter with words. But we know how this works. Someone is going to be inspired by those words to do something violent. And we've got work to do not to let it happen.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Lawmakers in New York have a challenge on their hands. I have referenced your post about Gracie Manchin a couple of times this week because I thought you it was, it was really the right thing to do and it was so well said. You after saying vile displays of Islamophobia will never be tolerated in our city, you then followed up and said, I'm sorry for jumping to conclusions and posting too soon, but I'm not sorry for hating Islamophobia as much as I hate anti Semitism. And I just wanted to ask, I mean, there are already cameras, NYPD cameras that have been surveilling New Yorkers, much to the anger of civil liberty's advocates in the city for a long time. But people don't exactly feel safe right now with good reason. There are crazy things happening all around the country. How are we balancing or how do you think about balancing those civil liberty concerns with also the very real fears that people have of radical extremists taking measures into their own hands, throwing explosive devices on the Upper east side. How do you think about those?

[Brad Lander]

Well, these lines are pretty straightforward. I think sometimes people try to fudge them. It's permissible to protest and say things and say hateful things. Like I am for the freedom of those Islamophobic protesters who were outside Gracie Mansion to be able to say vile, despicable, bigoted things. And I'm for Tommy Tuberville and Randy Fines rights to say despicable, vile, hateful things on Twitter and stand for office doing so I'm gonna say I find them Vi and hateful and despicable, and that we're gonna work hard not to elect them and counter protesters calling it vile and hateful. And pointing out the Islamophobia also is important. And generally, I will say the nypd, in my experience in this work, do a decent job, do a pretty good job of separating protesters and saying, here's a place where you can protest, and here's a place where you can counter protest. And the line was crossed when people threw explosive devices. That's when it moves from speech to violence. And in that case also, I mean, the video of those NYPD officers running toward the devices to keep people safe like that is what we want from law enforcement. It's a dangerous job to keep people safe from violence because even the Islamophobes should not be exposed to bombs or violence. I mean, the mayor shouldn't and the counter protesters shouldn't. So that line, I think, is straightforward. And we have a responsibility to, like, make those distinctions. That's free speech. You've got a right to say it. You shouldn't face violence for it. I hate it. I find it despicable. I'm gonna make work to do everything I can to make sure you're not in office.

[Krystal Ball]

And.

[Brad Lander]

And violence by people who are saying things, whether I agree or disagree with them, is never acceptable, and there have to be consequences for it.

[Mac Call]

So one more question on this before we move on to the. The Hochul thing with the broader context of, obviously, the ongoing genocide in Gaza, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, now the war in Iran, obviously. What do you think the role of AIPAC is going to play or the Israel lobby, broadly, in your election, in your district, district specifically? Do you think there could be some element of, you know, getting support from the Israel lobby could backfire or could be seen as a negative? Where. Where do you think that's going to play out?

[Brad Lander]

Look, AIPAC knows that its support is being viewed negatively, and that's why in all these Illinois races, they're not spending money saying, here's our point of view, and it's opposed to this candidate's point of view. They're just throwing trash and dirt and whatever they can dig up at the candidates whose point of view view on Israel and Palestine, they oppose. So that's their playbook right now. I mean, and I suspect they'll do it here as well. You know, Dan Goldman, my opponent, is heavily supported by aipac, and I assume, therefore there already is super PAC spending for him and against me in this race. And I imagine there'll be a lot more of it. And yeah, I mean, I think as a Jewish New Yorker who is really proud of it is really clear about it. I think they like even less someone that says it's time to end unconditional US Support for genocide. And what I believe, though, is that the residents of New York's 10th congressional district feel that way as well. And they've seen the playbook too, and they know me. And I'm optimistic that that spending will not change the opportunity to have a real dialogue. But I wish we could do more about it. I mean, let me be clear. I passed here in New York something called the Independent Expenditure Disclosure act, boldest local law in the country, so that if you do an independent expenditure in New York City elections, the top three individual donors have to sign their name on the lit piece or on the ad. That's as far as you can go under Citizens United. But Congress could pass a law not waiting for Citizens United to require super PAC spending be disclosed not just generically on website, but on the lit or on the ads. And then maybe people would be less likely to throw millions of dollars after, you know, such scurrilous advertising.

[Ryan Grim]

I did one last one last question on this theme before Hoagland taxes, in case people missed it. Yesterday we reported that the, the name of the, the driver who drove his truck into the synagogue was Eamon Go Gazella. And it turns out, and this is, and I want to get your sense and your reaction to this because this is difficult stuff to even talk about and contextualize because it feels like you're justifying. But of course, we're all adults and we understand that want that explanations or motives are not necessarily justifications for violence. But we learned that Gazella's family in the Lebanon were four. Four members of them were killed in an airstrike last week. His, his little niece, little nephew Ali and Fatima, and then two of his brothers, Kassiman and Ibrahim. And he posted on his WhatsApp stories overnight their pictures. And then the next thing we know, the next day, he attacks this synagogue. You know, how did you respond? I assume you saw that reporting. If you did, how did you think through that?

[Brad Lander]

Yeah, I mean, thank you for the, for the reporting, however awful and horrific and challenging it is to think through. Look, violence doesn't justify violence in response. War crimes are not an excuse for a next war crime. And targeting civilians isn't a justification for acts of violence or harming other people's children. Obviously, the people of West Bloomfield, Michigan and Temple Israel are not responsible for the deaths of his family members or other kids in Lebanon. And blaming Jews generically for the actions of Israel is a form of antisemitism. So all those things are true. And also violence begets violence. Like when people, people's families are killed, they're enraged and they lose their ability in some cases to think rationally and you lower the bar on horrible things that people do. So I don't think, I mean, yeah, I guess it's a nuance, but it is the case that when Israel is at war, there are more acts of anti Semitic violence against Jews around, around the world. That doesn't justify them, but it is a fact. And this in particular, this reckless war of choice when there was not an immediate threat to anyone's safety. You know, I guess I think like that's maybe the way to say it here. There was not, you know, they're, they're not on the cusp of getting nuclear weapons. They weren't about to launch a war or strikes. They were not immediately threatening anyone, anyone with harm. And what Trump and Netanyahu have done is launched a war that's killed thousands of people. This made millions of people refugees. I guess I do want to underline this as well. They have a right wing politics based on fear of refugees and they've just made several million people refugees in a way that's going to reverberate. We might not feel that that'll be felt in Europe more than here, that people fleeing Lebanon and Iran and war start moving throughout the world. But the consequences of escalating violence are bad for everyone. Like this war is bad for everyone. It's bad for the people of Iran who were bravely protesting for their freedom just a few short weeks ago. They're not closer. It doesn't look to me like to freedom or stability. And many more are refugees and many more are dead. It's bad for the people of Lebanon, it's bad for Muslims here, it's bad for Jews here. I don't know who it's good for.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, if I could just add one thing to that, I think you're right when you say that, you know, you particularly drive entities like APAC crazy as a proud Jew and also someone who criticizes Israel because groups like AIPAC and adl, all the way up to Benjamin Netanyahu himself, love to conflate all Jews with the state of Israel. And I think what you also see, and you know, neo Nazis, by the way, do the same thing. The Nick Fuentes is of the world love to make that conflation as well. And I think what you see also with this attack is the way that that puts Jews at risk. Because if you're saying we're all responsible, we're all in on this horrific genocide and these horrific atrocities that are being committed and you create this sort of collective responsibility. And again, this is coming from groups like the adl, apac, Benjamin Netanyahu as well as the far right neo Nazis like Fuentes. When you create that perception, then yes, that is going to create more, more danger and more risk for all sorts of Jewish people.

[Ryan Grim]

Agreed. So Kathy Hle Mack, do you have the Kathy Hle? So Kathy Hle spoke yesterday. Brad, you could do a better job of I think setting the stage here. But effectively the New York City has a, and you're the former comptroller, nobody knows this better than you, has a balanced budget amendment which means you have to, to either have enough revenue to cover spending or you have to cut spending to match that. And or you have to if, or you can raise revenue and if you're going to match the spending. And so Zoran Mandani ran with your, you know, loud support on a very clear platform of covering that gap by taxing the rich. But the state has the power to allow him to do that. This I as I understand it, the state Senate and state assembly have both now passed bills that would raise taxes, that would allow for the raising of taxes on the super wealthy. They're slightly different so they'd have to be conferenced but in principle, the state legislature now. So you have voters of New York City agreeing that we need to tax the rich. You have the state legislature agreeing that you need to tax the rich. You've had Hochul saying we're not going to do that. You've had the New York City president saying New York City Council president saying we're not going to do that, which then pushes things over to property tax increases instead, which Mamdani has said I don't want to do do that. So she ends up Julie, what's her name? Julie Minan. Minan Menon City yeah. So she was pushing for cuts instead. Hokul though, it's this seems like the first break that we've seen from, from Hochul, potential opening to raise taxes. Let's play this clip and I'm going to get your response to it.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I feel softly don't have a problem. It is like I have to look

[Krystal Ball]

at the fact that we are in competition with other states who have less

[Emily Jashinsky]

of a Tax burden on their corporations and their individuals.

[Krystal Ball]

The Progressive Working Families Party.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, so she said, I philosophically don't have a problem with raising taxes on the wealthy. That is, is that a, is that a new, is that, is that hopeful for the Mamdani camp there?

[Brad Lander]

It is. I agree. That's the first time that I have heard Governor Hochul say something that indicates room for compromise with the legislature here. And look, there's a lot of choices. You know, a great. The state Senate finance chair, Liz Krueger was on the Senate floor a day before yesterday pointing out one of the things they've proposed is just eliminating a tax break on gold bullion. It turns out that if you hold gold bullion as a form of wealth in your basement or, I don't know, in your bank in New York, you get a tax break that was implemented a couple of decades ago and just a state on the books. $600 million is what the state is giving up every year by a tax break on gold bullion. So, like that's not even you tax on ultra millionaires or an increase in the corporate tax. There's, you know, Americans know that the ultra wealthy have found lots of loopholes and ways of shielding themselves from fair taxation. And it's overwhelmingly popular. And I think the fact that Governor Okul sees that the state Senate and the assembly have put these things in their bills and that we wanna be able to expand childcare without cutting our schools or maintenance in our parks is what we need to do. And yes, she's right that other governors are also going to face this choice. In a world where Donald Trump. As a result of sort of the inflationary pressures of the tariffs, as a result of so many cuts to federal policies, New York State is currently picking up food stamp costs that were being borne by the federal government. Government and the city and state together trying to deal with some big housing voucher cuts that Trump made. So this is a choice that governors and legislatures are gonna be facing. And the right answer is to modestly increase taxes on the wealthiest folks. And that's what Albany has the choice to do over the next couple of weeks. Modest increases, getting rid of that gold bullion tax, a modest increase in the corporate tax, a modest increase on New Yorkers who make over $25 million a year, who love city. They're not going to leave it as a result of a modest tax increase. We actually aren't talking about, I mean, billions of dollars is a significant amount of money. But what's necessary here to close the budget Gap for New York City and to allow us to get toward universal childcare without big cuts is a modest increase on the wealthiest New Yorkers. And I hope that, you know, Governor Hochul's comments yesterday indicate a willingness to reach a deal with the legislature to get there.

[Krystal Ball]

Listen, I used to make fun of the gold bugs, but I've been thinking lately maybe I need to acquire some gold bullion given the stability of the world right now. So I need to check here in Virginia if we've got any similar tax breaks on the books. One more thing from me. In any case, I wanted to get your reaction. Former Governor Cuomo had some had some thoughts on you, Brad, and so I wanted to get your reaction to this. You and also Zoran, of course. So let's take a.

[Pete Hegseth]

Now, look, there is no truth anymore. There is no accountability anymore. What Zoran knows is you say whatever is convenient to say, just put it out there on social media. Of course it's not true. He was shocked and surprised that there's a $12 billion budget. Mayor Adams lied.

[Brad Lander]

Everybody.

[Pete Hegseth]

He lied. Yeah, it turns out he's the liar. Brad Lander. I don't think he's got a genuine

[Brad Lander]

bone in his body.

[Pete Hegseth]

He's a pandering politician. The Democrat, far lefty. He wanted to patronize the far left and show that he was with them in his anti Israel views. That's all it is, pandering. Pure pandering.

[Krystal Ball]

This man is really one to talk about accountability. In any case, he's in his Rush Limbaugh era.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Let him. Let him cook.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, there you go. In any case, Brad, are you, are you patronizing me right now?

[Brad Lander]

What I responded with, I mean, first, it bears a second. I mean, Andrew Cuomo is a master of projection. Obviously he's never had a seriously held position other than whatever benefits Andrew Cuomo. And he can't stand understand anyone else believing the things they say. I think that's pretty straightforward. I responded with some letters I had written to my hometown Jewish newspaper in 1990 when I was a junior in college, when I expressed more or less the same point of view on Israel and Palestine that I have today. That newspaper had published some political cartoons making Palestinians look like rats. And I wrote the editor, who had been my teacher in Sunday school and said, please don't do this. We have to find a way to mutual recognition and peace. And I linked it on my Twitter. If people want to go read the back and forth, you can. But what I responded with is, yes, yes. I started my long con of faking my positions on Israel when I was 20 years old in 1990, just for the purpose of trolling and defeating Andrew Cuomo.

[Krystal Ball]

Diabolical.

[Brad Lander]

Every minute was worth it.

[Mac Call]

It's 5D chess.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, well, I'm sure you have a lot to get to today, and we're really grateful for your time. Brad, if you can let people know where they can go to find out more about your campaign or support it if they are so, so inclined.

[Brad Lander]

Thank you so much. Bradlander for Congress.com we've got canvases every day. We're building something really powerful together. Please come join us.

[Krystal Ball]

Amazing. Thanks. Great to see you.

[Brad Lander]

Thank you all.

[Krystal Ball]

All right, guys, so that was Brad Lander and we have a lot more that we want to get to in the premium portion. In particular, Tech Bros just being the most insane, diabolical, disturbing people you can possibly imagine. And also an update on those IDF soldiers who are were caught on camera gang raping a Palestinian detainee. Now, the charges against them have been dropped, so we'll discuss what's going on with that as well. If you want access to the premium show, guess what, guys? The month free trial is still going on through Sunday. What is it? BP Free 26.

[Mac Call]

That's right.

[Krystal Ball]

We want to free the BP 26.

[Emily Jashinsky]

We don't know who they are, but they're getting free.

[Krystal Ball]

Free. Yeah, we want them to be free. So anyway, BP free 26 to avail yourself of that offer for the free month trial. Thank you once again to all of the thousands of people who have already signed up. We are incredibly, incredibly grateful for your support. Enables us to do what we do here without having to worry about anything. Have to worry about censorship, have to worry about, you know, big tech. Have to worry about, you know, the, the risks that we take in terms of the stories that we cover in the journalism that we pursue. So thank you so much to you guys and we are going to move on now to that premium portion again. To get access to that, go and sign [e-mail] when people turn to telehealth

[Ryan Grim]

for weight loss, they're looking for real support.

[Public Ad Read]

That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com orderly meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience. And all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer.

[Ryan Grim]

That's orderlymeds.com.

[Public Ad Read]

individual results may vary.

[Ryan Grim]

Not medical advice.

[Public Ad Read]

Eligibility required.

[Ryan Grim]

See site for details.

[Mac Call]

Janice Torres here and I'm Austin Hankwitz.

[Ryan Grim]

We host the podcast Mind the Business

[Mac Call]

Small Business Success Stories, produced by Ruby Studio in partnership with Intuit QuickBooks.

[Krystal Ball]

We're back for season four to talk to some incredible small business owners.

[Mac Call]

The big thing about working at tech is that it's ever evolving, ever changing. Every one's a rookie. That's how fast the industry is changing. So what I'm really excited about is to be part of that change. So listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Krystal Ball]

In the heat of battle, your squad relies on you. Don't let them down. Unlock elite gaming [e-mail] dominate every match with next level speed, seamless streaming and performance that won't quit.

[Orderly Meds / Redfin Ad Read]

Push your gameplay beyond performance with Intel

[Krystal Ball]

Core Ultra processor for the next era of gaming. Upgrade to smooth high quality streaming with Intel Wi Fi 6e and maximize game performance with enhanced overclocking. Win the tech search power [e-mail] Lenovo

[Brad Lander]

Lenovo

[Krystal Ball]

this is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.