← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/14/26: BREAKING: TRUMP ATTACKS OIL ISLAND, MARINES CALLED IN, 5 US PLANES HIT
00:23:08
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Main Commentator
Had some significant developments in the war in Iran that I did not want to wait to bring to you. Until Monday. So let's go ahead and get to it. The most significant of those updates is this from President Trump. He posted this on True Social yesterday. Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle east and totally obliterated every military target in Iran's crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated the world has ever known. But for reasons of decency, I've chosen not to wipe out the oil infrastructure on the island. However, should Iran or anyone else do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my first term and currently, I rebuilt our military into the most lethal, powerful and effective force by far anywhere in the world. Iran has no ability to defend anything that we want to attack. There is nothing they can do about it. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle east, or for that matter, the world. Iran's military and all others involved with this terrorist regime would be wise to lay down their arms and save what's left of their country, which isn't much. Thank you for your attention to this matter. So a bunch of things to call your attention to here that are significant. So, first of all, I'll. I'll tell you a little bit more about Carg island in a moment. But it is incredibly important to Iran's oil exports. About 90% of their oil exports leave from that island. And so there's significant capacity there. Obviously, that's important. You'll note, though, that Trump specifically says that he did not target the oil infrastructure, only the military infrastructure. And we do have confirmation of that at this point. In fact, you know, people who track such things say already they've been able to load more oil from Carg Island. The Iranian government also says that the oil infrastructure was not impacted and they are continuing to operate. So that's number one. Number two, he says that while he's only targeting the military infrastructure on Kharg island right now, that if Iran continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and control the Strait of Hormuz and not allow any tankers from the US And Israel, in particular our allies, through the the Strait, that then he would consider targeting the oil infrastructure. Now, as you guys know, we already have a significant oil crisis. Oil prices have shot up. They shot up at one point to $120 a barrel. They have now. Now they're hovering right around $100 a barrel. The oil market is a global market. So even as you know, the entity that would be hurt the most if Carg Island's capacity was removed from the system would be Iran. The entire global market would suffer. And that would have implications for the US and it would have massive implications for countries around the world. The US Is somewhat insulated because of being a net energy exporter, but then we are also integrated into that world economy. So if you're taking those millions of barrels of oil off the market from car coming from Carg island, you're going to have some sort of price shock. So this is no doubt a significant escalatory step here from, from President Trump. And let me go ahead and share with you a little bit more information about Carg island so you can see, you know, some of the, the import here. This is from the Wall Street Journal and just has some facts about this. Why did Trump order an attack on Iran's Kharg Island? As I said before, the tiny spot of land in the northern Persian Gulf is the launch point for 90% of the country's oil exports. Trump said he spared oil facilities in the bombardment, which went after military targets only, but warned that he would reconsider that decision if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz. The US military said it targeted more than 90 military targets, including mine and missile stor sites and shared video of a strike on a Runway. In addition, it reiterates what I was saying about how the island is not actually shut down in terms of oil. They attack the army jetty and storages are okay, said a board member at the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Product Exporters Union. What will the attacks on Carg mean for oil prices? It says so far the attacks went after military targets only. If the island's oil infrastructure is damaged, that could force Iran to cut production at its oil fields, potentially taking another 1 million barrels of production away from global markets. That would be in addition to cuts implemented by Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain. So they're saying the oil industry is already impacted by this war, by attacks that have been ongoing. And now this would further reduce that if the oil infrastructure was hit. So that is some additional details there. I wanted to provide you with this analysis from Professor Robert Pape, who we had on the show last week. And I know a lot of people have been very interested in what he has to say. He's been talking about how Trump is trapped in. He's in this escalation trap. And this would be a perfect emblem of that escalation trap, because here, Trump is once again taking it to the next level, even though Iran continues to be able to respond and continues to be able to up the ante. So what Professor Pape says here is seizing CARG would block Iran oil exports, but means more oil off the global market, further increasing oil prices and inflation on US Consumers. It will not prevent Iran's drone from hitting tankers. Escalation continues to favor Iran and its long war strategy. So what has Iran done seemingly in response here? We've already got some indications of the direction they're going to go in, in particular. And this, you know, is very predictable given the attack on Kharg Island. Brian Krassenstein says here breaking in retaliation the Carg island attack, Iranian drones have just hit oil facilities at Fujairah Port in the uae. This is a very large and significant oil depot. He says, I'd be shocked if gas isn't $4 next week. I, you know, can opine on exactly what the impact will be on the markets or on gas prices at the pump. But this is the logic of escalation. So Carg island is hit. So what does Iran do in response? They hit oil infrastructure in the region. They up the ante so now, and they are showing no indication that they're going to open up the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, in kind of a brilliant, almost troll, they said, oh, we'll allow some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as long as it is not denominated in dollars, but in Chinese one. So, you know, trying to undermine the status of the dollar in the world, trying to use whatever asymmetric tools that they have here in order to squeeze the U.S. not just militarily, but from an economic perspective. And I think they really see that as being at the forefront of their strategy. Rory Johnston, who we also had on the show, who's an oil market analyst, says that Iranian tankers are already back to loading at CARG this morning, despite yesterday's US Strikes on the island, which currently stages the vast majority of Iranian exports. So that, again, underscores that the oil infrastructure was not actually hit. That threat remains. It's also worth noting here that Trump intentionally, intentionally made this move after markets closed, of course, because he wants the weekend for things to potentially shake out and lessen the blow of whatever's going to happen in our stock markets and with oil futures as well. I think that was a very intentional choice because he knows it's going to be Incredibly, it's, it's going to be very chaotic. It's going to cause even more turmoil oil than we've seen thus far. And we're just beginning to see the way that Iran is going to respond and the way that they're going to retaliate. But that is not the, the only piece of significant news that I wanted to bring you guys. This is also incredibly, incredibly important and significant. 5 Air Force Refueling planes were hit in an Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia. They were damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. According to two U.S. officials. They were hit during an Iranian missile strike on the Saudi base in recent. CENTCOM declined to comment. Tank tankers were damaged but not fully destroyed and are being repaired. One of the officials said no one was killed in the strike. So this comes on top of that very strange incident that we told you about where an air tanker, this same type of air tanker had some sort of accident involving another U. S. Plane. The other plane was able to land safely. That tanker crashed. We now know all six crew members that were on board were killed. We were told by the government that this was not friendly fire and it also was not Iranian fire. It was some sort of accident. There is an Iraqi militia, Iranian aligned Iraqi militia that is claiming credit. So we have no idea really what happened there. But in any case, we do know that now we have seven of these refueling tankers that are at least currently out of commission. That, you know, seems to be a strategic choice from the Iranians. You know, you can't fly these longer range missions without having access to these refueling tankers. So it limits what you're able to do. So, you know, in the same way that they have targeted the, the radar and the Thaad battery system, the Patriot missile systems, they also seem to have targeted these tankers. Unless this was just, you know, happened to be what was convenient or available for them to be able to strike. But obviously very interesting and very significant that you have those, the Iranians still able to conduct those sorts of strikes and exact that kind of damage on the United States military. Going back to the escalation front, this was some additional news that was breaking while we were doing the Friday show and we weren't able to get it in. But obviously this is incredibly, incredibly noteworthy. More Marines and warships head to the Middle east as Hormuz mission intensifies. The Pentagon is also sending more destroyers to escort tankers. Pentagon is moving additional marines and warships in the Middle east as Iran steps up its attack and the US Prepares to escort tankers through the waterway. Now, the military analysts that I've seen have said that, that it would be an impossible mission, that it would be far too dangerous unless you actively occupy the coastline there in Iran. So an, you know, avert ground invasion in order to be able to, you know, protect that space. Because otherwise, if you just have your tanker, if you're just escorting these tankers through, then you and the tankers are both going to be sitting ducks for Iranian attacks. So that's why, you know, when you see now, okay, they're sending these Marines from this amphibious ready group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East. You have to ask the question, what are they preparing for? So this is, I think, some 2500 Marines that are being sent in. They say the amphibious ready group is a fast response unit used to conduct sea based amphibious assaults, humanitarian aid missions, and special operations. The group's embarked Marine Expeditionary unit includes more than 2,000 Marines. In addition to the Marine unit, The Pentagon is also weighing centcom's request for two additional destroyers to help escort commercial ships through the strait. One of the officials said, and there's been a lot of speculation, including from myself, that they are going to inevitably end up with boots on the ground in Iran, some sort of invasion, because that is the logic of the escalation trap that Trump finds himself now in. Because you have to accomplish some sort of goal to even declare mission accomplished, you know, and, and try to claim that this has all been some grand success, this. But even if you do that, the Iranian strategy is we need to make these people pay a severe price so that we don't find ourselves back here again in another six months or in another year, there needs to be enough pain that the US And Israel think better of coming back and doing this to us again. So even if Trump, you know, at this point says, oh, I destroyed their military assets on Carg Island, I destroyed their missile launchers or whatever thing, he wants to go, I killed the Ayatollah and I did all these, you know, amazing military feats. And we're, we're good, you know, they're, they've been degraded, etc. And tried to walk away there, it would be illogical for the Iranians to walk away. And all the signals that they have sent is that they have no interest in doing so at this point. Now, I could be wrong. Many other people who are saying the same thing, who know a lot more about it than I do, could also be wrong. But it seems on its face to be fundamentally irrational for the Iranians to accept the US Declaring mission accomplished and walking away and, and, you know, fitness and to, to cease their attacks on their side. So that is the logic of the escalation trap. So if the Iranians are going to keep going, the U.S. is also going to keep going. The U.S. as the, the empire and the hegemon. And Trump in particular, given his narcissistic personality, you cannot lose face in this. You, it cannot be seen that you are retreating, cannot be seen that, you know, you're giving in to the Iranians. And so that means they continue up the escalation ladder. Which is why I find it incredibly likely that we are going to end up with ground forces. And it seems very possible that this, these Marine units which are being sent in are the first step in that direction. There are a lot of rumblings coming from, you know, people have sources within the Pentagon and within this administration that things are headed in that direction. So we'll see. I did also see people saying online, haven't double checked whether this is the case or not, but that this was also the, the way that the, the invasion in Vietnam began, the first boots on the ground with a similar deployment of very similar type of Marine force. So I guess history rhymes, especially when you have idiots who seem very interested in repeating the worst mistakes of the past. Let me just I' two more things here that I really wanted to bring you guys today. This was quite extraordinary comments from David Sachs who is in the administration. He is also a podcast host over at the All In Podcast. He is the White House crypto czar and he is really sounding the alarm here about the way that the Iran war could turn catastrophic and even raising the possibility that Israel could launch a nuclear weapon. Let me go ahead and play these comments for you.
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David Sachs (Trump Administration Insider)
You also have to, I think, consider the impacts on, on Israel. I mean, it's hard to know exactly how much damage Israel is taking right now. There's a social media blackout. But what you're starting to hear trickle out is that Israel is getting hit harder than they've ever been hit before in their history. And we're only two weeks into this. If this war continues for weeks or months, then Israel could just be destroyed. There are very large parts of it now. I think Israel is a harder target than the Gulf states. Their infrastructure is more hardened. Also they're further away. The Gulf states are vulnerable to drones and short range missiles, whereas Israel is mainly vulnerable to long range missiles. Nonetheless, at some point their air defenses could become exhausted if it hasn't happened already and Israel could get seriously destroyed. And then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon, which would truly be catastrophic. So there's a lot of scenarios here, a lot of really frightening scenarios about where escalation could lead. And even though the United States is a much more powerful country than Iran, they essentially have a dead man switch over the economic fate of the Gulf states and even potentially beyond that, the habitability of some of these countries. So I do tend to think that this is a good time to declare victory. I think, Brad, you're right that the president has never said that democracy promotion is one of his objectives. Yes, Jake, Al, obviously everyone would welcome if the people rose up and chose a new regime. But that's not something that we've said we have to accomplish.
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Main Commentator
So really quite significant comments there coming from a Trump administration insider. I mean, just think about this. This is not someone in the Pentagon, right. But this is someone who was part of the Trump administration and he's saying this could be catastrophic. He's saying that the Iranians have a, can basically kill the Gulf economies altogether if they want, that Israel is somewhat more hardened, but that they are also extremely vulnerable here as well if their defensive capabilities are exhausted. And that's an allusion to the, you know, the issue, the interceptors which are being fired off at a rapid pace right now and the Iranians meanwhile, have, you know, continue to have more missiles in reserve and continue to have vast, almost, I think, inexhaustible troves of these shahed drones which they not only have stockpile which are very inexpensive to produce. And I, you know, I don't know whether the US has been able to degrade their capacity to produce those drones. There's no indication that they have. And you're talking about that. I've seen estimates everywhere from the those drones cost only $7,000 to produce all the way up to, you know, something like $50,000. In any case, in military terms, that is absolutely nothing. They're extremely cheap given the amount of damage that they're able to inflict. And meanwhile, you're sending these, you know, million dollar interceptors at, you know, routinely at these sorts of, these sorts of challenges from Iran. So in any case, you've got him saying, yeah, they could kill the Gulf economies, they could ultimately inflict a lot of damage on Israel and that Israel, if they get backed into a corner like that, may well deploy a nuclear weapon and then all hell will break loose. So he's urging President Trump to declare mission accomplished. Look, he says, you've never talked about democracy promotion. We don't need a democracy. Like, let's just, just say we did a great job. Congratulations, everyone. Try to walk away. Of course, the problem with that is the question, you know, I raised earlier of what would Iran agree? Would they also walk away? Would they say we're done? I think that seems very unlikely. The other angle that's important here with regard to David Sacks, I said he's, you know, he's crypto czar. He's obviously heavily, like, involved and invested in AI development. These are the, his spheres of expertise. And AI development is also gravely threatened by which. Not something that I have in mind in particular, but in any case, this will be something that's top of mind for him. Gravely threatened by these developments, both because these data centers and the, you know, the AI growth is predicated on energy prices staying comparatively low. And then in addition, you have massive data centers in the Gulf Arab states. This has been a major push from them. Sachs, I think, has been, you know, involved in touting some of these deals and how significant they are for AI development. The Iranians have named these tech companies as direct targets. I know at least one, maybe two data centers have already been hit, either intentionally or by debris and caused damage. So that's a problem. You also have a lot of investments coming from these Gulf Arab states, which is what we talked about before, into, you know, the, the data center and the tech space. So I'm sure he's also has to be thinking about what that means for, for the future. And then the last thing that I wanted to bring to you guys here is an update from the Israeli, Israeli side of things. So they have announced they're planning to seize the entire area south of Lebanon's Litany river in a massive ground invasion. That's according to Israel and U.S. officials. They're talking to Axios, according. And Axio says this would be the largest Israeli ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006, dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran. Pete Hegseth tried to tell everybody on Friday that the war was not widening, the war was shrinking, the war was narrowing, that Iran was on its knees, that it was practically finished, that they had been obliterated. And meanwhile, you know, not only is that, that apparently not the case, given that Iran is still able to inflict damage, including to our, you know, refueling aircraft, including to. There was an Iraqi Embassy, the US Embassy in Iraq that was struck that oil field that I showed you earlier, or oil storage rather, that I showed you earlier. So they're continuing to be able to inflict damage. But in addition, you know, you, not only do you not have, you know, them on their knees, but Israel is very invested in continuing to widen this war and using this as an opportunity to go for their most maximalist goals. So they're going to invade and occupy and ethnically cleanse this part of Lebanon, significant part of Lebanon. So, you know, there's been already a lot of reporting about significant civilian death toll in that area. Hezbollah has been able to fire back, which I think is not something that the Israelis necessarily expected, that they still had that level of strength. It's certain something that I had expected and I think perhaps it was a bit of a wild card that yet another thing that military planners did not plan for. You also have the possibility of the Houthis becoming more engaged here, which would create even more problems in terms of the oil markets and the economic shock here, which again is a key goal of what the Iranians are doing. So in any case, you know, as the weekend proceeds, we continue to see them climbing up that escalation ladder and we continue to see Trump further and further enmeshed in that escalation trap. So that's where we are, guys. I will bring any additional significant updates to you as they unfold this weekend and Sagar and I will definitely see you on Monday.
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