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Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/19/26: Joe Kent Sounds Off On Tucker, Professor Pape On Incoming Iran Invasion
00:46:30
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
- [00:04]
Sophia
I became a millionaire overnight and lost everything that actually mattered.
- [00:08]
Sagar Enjeti
Hold on, Sophia. Did you just say they lost everything after becoming a millionaire?
- [00:12]
Sophia
That's right. And it gets worse. It's a narrating too much drama week on the OK Storytime Podcast. So we'll find out soon. This person writes, I just inherited a fortune after losing my mom, and now my girlfriend's entire family is coming out of nowhere with her hands out and my girlfriend is already giving my money away.
- [00:28]
Nick Dickenpole
So the girl he wants to marry
- [00:29]
Sagar Enjeti
is already sending money out the door.
- [00:31]
Sophia
Find out how it ends. Listen to the OK Storytime podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:39]
Nick Dickenpole
On paper, the three hosts of the Nick Dickenpole show are geniuses. We can explain how AI works, data centers, but there are certain things that we don't necessarily understand better version of
- [00:52]
Robert Pape
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Yes.
- [00:54]
Unknown Taylor Swift Commentator
Which, by the way, wasn't Taylor Swift who said that for the first time. I actually, I thought it was. I got that wrong.
- [00:59]
Nick Dickenpole
But hey, no one's perfect. We're pretty close, though. Listen to the Nick, Dick and Paul show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:08]
Krystal Ball
Then she says, have you seen a photo of my son? And I'm like, who is this person?
- [01:13]
Boys and Girls Podcast Host
Welcome to the boys and girls podcast. Arranged marriage is basically a reality show and you're auditioning for your soulmate. And who's judging? Only your entire family. I sacrificed myself to this ancient tradition hoping to find love the right way, and instead I found chaos, comedy and a lot of cringe. Listen to boys and Girls on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [01:39]
Sagar Enjeti
Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
- [01:41]
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:48]
Sagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [01:54]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:05]
Sagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com turning now to Tucker Carlson's interview with Joe Kent. So first we're going to start here with some news at the top. Let's put it up here on the screen. Breaking from semaphore last night. Joe Kent is now under FBI investigation for allegedly leaking classified information. I'm told the investigation predates his departure. I'm sure it does. I'm sure, sure, sure that it does.
- [02:36]
Krystal Ball
He called that one immediately thought somebody
- [02:39]
Sagar Enjeti
actually tweeted out a clip of our segment. And I checked the time. I think we recorded it eight minutes after he resigned. And I was like they're gonna indict him. And I know the playbook. You know why? Because it happened to Dan Caldwell. And what happened with Dan Caldwell? They accused him of being a leaker. He was fired. They drug his name through the mud. And just yesterday it was announced that he's been completely cleared of all wrongdoing and that the ODNI polygraph has restated his security clearance. It'll be allowed back into the government. So just so you're all aware about the last time they said somebody with some anti war sympathies and accused him of being a leaker. This is obviously complete bullshit. FBI, Keystone Cash and all of these other people claiming that this is some, you know. Oh, a leak. Listen, I knew it was coming. They cannot let this slide. Why? Because Joe is too important. He's too important. He's the biggest voice historically. No sub cabinet official, remember Senate confirmed has ever resigned in protest over a war. Like not in Vietnam, not in Iraq. I mean this is Daniel Ellsberg level of coming out and the courage to do so. I mean look, no, hate to Ellsberg who I love but he waited until the 1970s to come out. We're talking about in the mix said this is a nightmare, a disaster. And I cannot in good conscience.
- [03:54]
Krystal Ball
It reminds me of some of like the Watergate resignation, like that, that kind of parallel. I mean they, you know I don't believe this administration and I think you're probably right that the allegations are complete bullshit that he is a leaker. If he did leak though, I wouldn't blame him. I mean he was banging his head against the wall watching the. According to you know, what he said and what Marco Rubio and others have basically confirmed that watching the Israelis come in and lie to the president about what an imminent threat Iran is, blah blah blah. There was according to Kat. And we'll play these clips for you in a moment. You know there was a lot of debate leading up to the 12 day war leading up to this one. Anyone who would have been a dissenting voice was just completely and utterly shut out. So if he wanted to try to influence the President. His only path would have been to go to the press. So, again, I'm not saying he did that. I remain very skeptical of these claims, but if he did, I would see that as a patriotic act of him trying to prevent what he knew to be a disastrous war, trying to get around this wall that had been built. And Trump is responsible for the fact, by the way, that that wall is built and that he surrounded himself with complete sycophants who were just telling him what he wanted to hear about how great this war would be and how easy it would be and how the regime would topple immediately, et cetera, et cetera.
- [05:08]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, so let's get actually into some of the clips here from the interview. E2. Let's start with this declarative statement from a man with the highest security clearance in the United States government. National Counterterrorism Director. As of a couple of days ago, Iran was not an imminent threat to the United States. Let's take a listen.
- [05:25]
Interviewer
Was Iran on the verge of getting a nuclear weapon?
- [05:30]
Joe Kent
No, they weren't, you know, three weeks ago when this, this started. And they weren't in June either. I mean, the Iranians have had a religious ruling, a fatwa against actually developing a nuclear weapon since 2004. That's been in place since 2004. That's available in the public sphere. But then also, we had no intelligence to indicate that that fatwa was being disobeyed or it was on the cusp of being lifted. The Iranian strategy, it's actually pretty pragmatic. The Iranians are obviously aware of what's taking place in their region, and their strategy was to not completely abandon their nuclear program because they saw what happened to Muammar Gaddafi in Libya when he said, hey, I've got no more nukes. I'll do what you say. I'll give up my nukes.
- [06:11]
Interviewer
And we gave him the Nobel Peace Prize.
- [06:13]
Joe Kent
Yeah, we. We regime changed him. And he was, you know, executed by his own people in the most horrific.
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Interviewer
Oh, sodomized by a bayonet.
- [06:19]
Joe Kent
Right. The. The IR position, when viewed from the lens of the region, was actually fairly pragmatic. They were preventing, you know, themselves from developing a bomb, but they still wanted the ability. They wanted the ability to. To enrich. They wanted the ability to have some components so that they weren't completely stripped of it. And when we always assessed that they were either several months or a year, two years away from actually being able to develop a nuclear weapon. And that's not because the Iranians are stupid people. I think we can. We can tell right now that the Iranians are anything but stupid. They had the ability, I think, that the brain power to actually develop one, or they could have simply traded a ton of oil with Pakistan or someone else to actually get a nuclear weapon. They were not doing that. We had no indicate, no intelligence to indicate that they were.
- [07:04]
Sagar Enjeti
Does that sound like a bunch of religious fanatics who don't think, or what do they say? They're a theocracy. They want the end times. They hate us all very much. What do you hear from that? Highly, highly pragmatic. You have people who respond to circumstances, thought very deeply about the types of decisions they were making, but most importantly, no imminent threat. No imminent threat. Okay, so what they said is BS completely. And I know that might be obvious to the viewers of our show. In the hopes that this reaches many, many people, remember that the Pentagon, the White House, White House press secretary, the President of the United States, the Secretary of State, all of them have said that this is an imminent threat. And as Kent explains very clearly, the only imminent threat was Israel's imminent threat to the country of Iran, who was then going to attack Israel. And, yes, the United States of America bases, which protects Israel. And as a result, we had to go in and preemptively strike Israel's preemption. When you put it that way, it's a real different imminent threat, isn't it?
- [08:09]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [08:10]
Sagar Enjeti
And I think that. That, you know, coming out of the mouth of somebody who had access to the intelligence, who was in the room not for this one, but for the previous one on Midnight Hammer, and he went through some of that. I just have no other conclusion than, like, you have a president who is completely captured here by Israeli interests and logic, and for whatever reason, he refuses to, you know, to say no, as Kent says, is an option. And I'm not blaming Israel. Like, yeah, it's their fault, too. But I'm saying Trump is incapable of doing this. He is incapable, and he has now shown us that. And if you listen to this interview, and we're about to get to even some more shocking stuff around Charlie Kirk and all of that, like, I do not have another conclusion than that. That is the only conclusion I can draw. Well, he's terrified. He's either terrified or he agrees. I don't know what's worse.
- [09:01]
Krystal Ball
Right.
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Sagar Enjeti
I prefer terrified because at least maybe
- [09:02]
Krystal Ball
we can get out of that. We still see Trump parroting these insane Israeli talking points. It was deeply disturbing to me. When he said that the celibate, the pro government demonstrations in the street, that they were fake, that they were AI. And look, I don't know what he believes and what are lies or whatever. It seemed to me like he actually believed that, or at least he believed it had enough credibility to report, you know, repeat it to the American public. That comes directly from the Israelis. So there's no doubt, you know, the influence campaign that they successfully launched here. And I want to pair this, you know, Joe Kent's comments there about how no imminent threat, no, they were not developing a nuclear weapon. That is not what we assessed at all. With Tulsi Gabbard's testimony yesterday, where she was asked about this as well. Jon Ossoff pressed her on. Listen, you said last summer this nuclear threat was obliterated, that their nuclear program was obliterated. So what's going on here? This is D1. Let's listen to that.
- [10:02]
Jon Ossoff
That opening statement as submitted to the committee in advance of this hearing, stated that as a result of last summer's airstrikes, quote, Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated. End quote. Correct?
- [10:15]
Sagar Enjeti
That's right.
- [10:16]
Jon Ossoff
And is that in fact the assessment of the intelligence community?
- [10:18]
Sagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [10:19]
Jon Ossoff
So the assessment of the intelligence community is that Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated by last summer's airstrikes.
- [10:26]
Sagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [10:27]
Jon Ossoff
In the opening statement you submitted to the committee last night also stated, quote, there has been no effort since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability, end quote. Correct?
- [10:37]
Sagar Enjeti
That's right.
- [10:37]
Jon Ossoff
And that's the assessment of the intelligence community?
- [10:40]
Sagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [10:41]
Jon Ossoff
The White house stated on March 1st of this year that this war was launched and was, quote, a military campaign to eliminate the imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime, end quote. That's a statement from the White House, quote, the imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime. Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?
- [11:08]
Sagar Enjeti
The intelligence community assessed that Iran maintained the intention to rebuild and to continue to grow their nuclear enrichment capability.
- [11:16]
Jon Ossoff
Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was a, quote, imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?
- [11:22]
Sagar Enjeti
Yes or no, Senator, the only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president.
- [11:28]
Robert Pape
False.
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Krystal Ball
So she won't say it. She said, oh, well, that's. That's not really my job. That's up to the President.
- [11:34]
Sagar Enjeti
The only person who can determine imminent threat is the pre. No, not true.
- [11:37]
Krystal Ball
Literally, your job.
- [11:38]
Sagar Enjeti
Yes.
- [11:39]
Krystal Ball
That is your job is to determine which she knows she knows, but she's unwilling to just outright lie. So she dodges by saying, well, the President in all his brilliance and glory and magnificence, he's the one that we have to defer to. And only he can really, with his magical abilities, can really determine whether this was a threat to the United States. And I want to emphasize one other aspect of the testimony there. In the exchange with John Oskar off, he says, in your written testimony, you talked about how there had been no efforts since the nuclear instrument was supposedly obliterated to try to rebuild their enrichment capability. That was in the written testimony. She chose not to say that when she actually gave her opening statement, that was omitted because again, that's very uncomfortable for this administration in all of their many layered lies and rationales for why we're now in this disaster.
- [12:34]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, and she's actually literally testifying as you and I are talking. And she just continues to say she will. She's like, the ODNI is not my personal view. This is the view of the intelligence community. And the President is the one who can make the imminent threat decision. Now, to the point that I made earlier about Israeli capture, Joe went into great detail about what that looked like inside the information environment in the lead up to this war. Let's take a listen.
- [12:58]
Joe Kent
But I know how this works. I know the Israeli officials, some in intelligence, some in government, will come to US government officials and they will say all kinds of things that we, we know from our intelligence just simply isn't true. And they'll say, hey, I'm giving you a preview. It's not an intelligence channels yet, but here's what's going to happen. And that doesn't usually come to.
- [13:18]
Interviewer
Wait, wait a second. I mean, I thought that US Policymakers made their decisions on the basis of intelligence collected and, or vetted by our intelligence. That's why we have intelligence agencies that soak up hundreds of billions a year. But you're saying that Israeli officials short circuited the entire US Government just went right to American policymakers and said, it doesn't matter what your country says. Here's what we know. Is that what you're saying?
- [13:45]
Joe Kent
I mean, usually they're pretty slick and they'll say, hey, this isn't in intelligence channels yet because it's going to take some time to get there. And here on the cusp of building a bomb, you know, they're, they're going to, I don't know, you pick your topic. A lot of times they'll sample different things until they find what Sticks sample
- [14:03]
Sagar Enjeti
different things till they find what sticks. So it's not intelligence propaganda. He also talked about how he would hear things from the Israelis and then on the next day he would hear it on Mark Levin show or in the Wall Street Journal or by Mark Dubitz, anybody from the Israel lobby, I mean, literally out of the book from Professor John Mearsheimer, who we just talked to, this is the Israel lobby, the most sophisticated lobby in now, I would say, the history of mankind, the co option of a US Superpower. And that does not in any way absolve Donald Trump from allowing himself to be lobby controlled or whatever here by the Israelis. I want to make that very clear. But I think whenever we play this next one, honestly, this was the most shocking part. I plan on spending a decent amount of time on this. In our interview with Joe Kent, which is currently scheduled for tomorrow, is his discussion around the circumstances of Charlie Kirk's assassination and then connecting that to Butler and then connecting that to potentially why this war is happening the way that it is. E4. Let's take a listen.
- [14:56]
Joe Kent
Charlie Kirk is killed publicly in a very horrific way. And we're not really even allowed to look into that at all. And Charlie Kirk was one of President Trump's closest advisors and he also advocated heavily against a war with Iran. He was in the Oval Office in the lead up to the 12 day war. I wasn't particularly close with Charlie. He was very gracious to me when I was running for Congress. Very, very supportive. So we knew each other. And the last time I saw Charlie Kirk on this earth was in, in June, in, in the, in the West Wing, in the Stairway. And I said hi to him and he looked me in the eye and he said very loudly, and it's a small. You've been in the West Wing. It's, it's small, it's a tight space. And, and he said, joe, stop us from getting into a war with Iran, very loudly.
- [15:40]
Interviewer
He was single minded and he walked
- [15:41]
Joe Kent
off and he went, I believe, into the Oval. So when one of President Trump's closest advisors, who is vocally advocating for us to not go to war with Iran and for us to rethink at least our relationship with the Israelis, and then he's suddenly publicly assassinated and we're not allowed to ask any questions about that. It's a data point. It's a data point that we need to look into.
- [16:06]
Interviewer
What do you mean when you say we're not allowed to ask any questions about that?
- [16:11]
Joe Kent
We've, we've been told that this individual Robinson, he's a lone gunman and maybe he is, but the investigation that, that I was a part of, the National Counterterrorism center was a part of, we were stopped from continuing to investigate. And the FBI will say that they stopped that because they wanted to have every turn everything over to the Utah state authorities. Everything's going to trial. It's very, very sensitive. But there was still a lot for us to look into that I, I can't really get into. But there was still linkage for us to investigate that we needed to run down. And I'm not making any conclusions. I'm not saying no, I don't think you are, because, you know, because of this, this happened. I'm not, I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying there's unanswered questions. We know the pressure because of the text messages, text messages that have been made public that Charlie was under a lot of pressure from a lot of pro Israel donors. And again, we know Charlie was advocating to President Trump against this war with Iran.
- [17:04]
Sagar Enjeti
I'll be honest, that shocked me. That shocked me. As you and I know, we're not, we're not Charlie Kirk conspiracy. We're not Egyptian plains people over here. We covered that story at the time, the nctc, Joe Kent himself was blocked by Cash Patel, by the FBI. I don't know, man. You listen to that. What conclusion are you gonna draw? Well, what does he keep hinting at?
- [17:25]
Krystal Ball
You have to read, I mean, not read very much between the lines, but he's saying, look, this is what Charlie said to me. He said, keep us from going to war with Iran. We know that he was under all this pressure from pro Israel donors. There were some sorts of questions that I had based on, you know, tips or whatever, until he had access to, of a potential for Nexus and I was blocked from being able to continue the investigation. And they said, no, no, it's going to be just handled at the state level. And any of the queries that he made were just completely stonewalled. So, I mean, it's not, he's not just. He's heavily hinting at the possibility that he thinks, which is, I mean, this is truly, truly shocking stuff.
- [18:08]
Amy Robach
Hey there, folks. Amy Robach and T.J. holmes here.
- [18:11]
T.J. Holmes
And we know there is a lot of news coming at you these days, from the war with Iran to the ongoing Epstein fallout, government shutdowns, high profile trials, and what the hell is that Blake Lively thing about anyway?
- [18:23]
Amy Robach
We are on it every day, all day.
- [18:26]
T.J. Holmes
Follow us, Amy and tj. For news updates throughout the day, listen
- [18:30]
Amy Robach
to Amy and TJ on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [18:38]
Amber Grimes
It's the new me and it's the old them.
- [18:40]
Ana Navarro
Everybody's on their journey, and your journey
- [18:42]
Amber Grimes (continued)
is different to theirs.
- [18:43]
Amber Grimes
This Women's History Month. The podcast if youf Knew Better with Amber Grimes spotlights women who turn missteps into momentum and lessons into power.
- [18:51]
Amber Grimes (continued)
I think coming out of where I came from, I'm from the Bronx. I think I grew up really poor. I didn't know that then because I very much use my creativity to romanticize life. And I'm like, my mom did a really good job of, like, you step back and you're like, whoa. We. I don't know how we made it. So a lot of my life was, like, built out of, like, survival to get to the next place. Like, my drive, my, like, tunnel vision of, like, I gotta be better, I gotta achieve this was off the strengths of, like, I want to make a better life for us.
- [19:23]
Amber Grimes
If youf Knew Better brings real talk from women who've lived it, unpacking career pivots, relationship lessons, and the mindset shifts that changed everything. Listen to if youf Knew Better with Amber grimes on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [19:38]
Ana Navarro
I'm Anna Navarro, and on my new podcast, Bleep with Anna Navarro, I'm talking to the people closest to the biggest issues happening in your community and around the world. Because I know deep down inside right now, we are all cursing and asking what the BLEEP is going on. I'm talking to people like Julie K. Brown, who broke the explosive story on Jeffrey Epstein in 2018. These victims have been let down time and time again for decades and decades and decades by local law enforcement, by federal law enforcement, by administration after administration.
- [20:15]
Krystal Ball
The Justice Department through, I think we counted four presidential administrations, failed these victims.
- [20:23]
Ana Navarro
Listen to Bleep with Ana Navarro as part of the My Cultura Podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [20:38]
Krystal Ball
Shocking stuff. And look, it requires a lot of evidence.
- [20:40]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, no, let's be clear, right? The current evidence says what? Tyler Robinson shot Charlie Kerr.
- [20:45]
Krystal Ball
Okay?
- [20:46]
Sagar Enjeti
And that's probably the case. The case that he is alluding to is about some potential foreign. And again, I wanna be clear here. I would never make this statement without the evidence that we now have, which is an allegation made by the National Counterterrorism Director with the highest level of security clearance, who, as reported at the time by the New York Times, was blocked from any foreign connection investigation and is now bringing this up. Not just. I wanna be clear too. In his Tucker interview, he brought this up organically. He did not bring it up. After Tucker pressed him on the question. It was brought up in context of the Butler assassination attempt and this one. And in both cases, he said, we weren't allowed to fully investigate either of those. Connect. I mean, and then he said, I think that President Trump could feel under threat. He is drawing a conclusion in his mind. He is drawing that. Now, if I do that, I'm a crazy person, cuz I don't have inside information. I'm not in the Situation Room. I haven't seen all this stuff. He has, right?
- [21:45]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [21:45]
Sagar Enjeti
And so based on that, I mean, man, what are we drawing conclusions here for? I'm trying so hard not to go over the brink here, but this is. I mean, this is crazy. This is crazy.
- [21:58]
Krystal Ball
Well, and one of the things that has been speculated about how Trump, why Trump decided to get into this insane war was that he believed that the Iranians had been trying to assassinate him. And he said that he said something to the effect of, I got the Ayatollah before he could get me. So it does seem like, you know, he had some, some thought in that direction and that could be a potential motivation. This opens up another question. If he felt under threat from the Israelis, I mean, that is what Joe Kent is hinting at here, very heavily hinting at here, that the threat that Trump could have felt to himself and his family could have been that he was worried about what the Israelis would do. And again, it's wild to even say this stuff, but when you have someone who was at this high level of government with access to information that he had, who is suggesting this, you have to take it seriously. There are a number of other things that he said that were extremely interesting. He talked a lot about how there were people who were posting things online who seemed to have foreknowledge of the plot against Charlie and the ultimate murder of Charlie, and that that was something he wanted to pursue that also was not allowed to be pursued. So that was very interesting. He also made this comment about how one tactic of the government is that they will stop providing any information to the public about something that the public is obviously very interested in and about which there should be more information. The Butler assassination being one example, Charlie Kirk's assassination being another example. And he said this will be done Intentionally so that you get a lot of really crazy conspiracy theories. You know, the Egyptian plains and the French foreign leave, whatever, like, all that stuff. And then it sort of discredits other avenues that you might pursue outside of the official narrative, because then you look like, all right, well, the official narrative seems more credible than whatever these crazy people are on about over here. So he identifies that as a tactic in connection with these two events, in particular, Butler and then Charlie Kirk's assassination. And, yeah, I mean, the Butler thing is legitimately wild because here you have the guy who they tried was almost killed in Butler, Pennsylvania. You would think that there would be a fulsome. Look, okay, who is this guy and where did he come from? And what were his motivations? And that was also shut down. And they did very similar to the Epstein files. Like, no, we looked into it. Nothing to see here. We're all moving on.
- [24:28]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, exactly. And that's the point where. Look, again, I would not say any of this if he hadn't said it. I really wouldn't.
- [24:34]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, so we didn't do a lot of, like, you know, speculation or whatever.
- [24:39]
Sagar Enjeti
Seems believable. Crazy guy does research, wants to shoot Trump. I mean, okay, you know, makes sense. John Hinckley, right? You've seen it before.
- [24:46]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's not.
- [24:46]
Sagar Enjeti
Not a crazy situation.
- [24:47]
Krystal Ball
Country chock full of guns and mentally unstable people. One of them can get shot off.
- [24:51]
Sagar Enjeti
I mean, literally, look at the guy, all right, he's a loser. And so, all right, I believe it. But then the National Counterterrorism Director, or NCTC director, odni, highest security clearance in the world, exits the government and starts talking about it in the context of Trump's behavior vis a vis Israel. And you're like, holy shit, man. I mean, he is drawing a conclusion, which, look, he could be wrong, but he's got a lot more information than I do. And then he draws the Charlie Kirk situation into that as well, and he's like, maybe he feels like he's at threat, you know, another section, I don't know if you noticed, was him and Tucker talking about breaches in Trump's security. And so, you know, I hadn't thought about this. They talked about Code Pink, you know, being at a dinner, and we should actually ask. We should just call her and ask her, madea Benjamin, how's she going? How they ought to know, because they were like, look, to us, that seemed like a huge crack in the President's security.
- [25:39]
Krystal Ball
And just to remind people who may have forgotten, you know, Trump showed up to have dinner at a local restaurant. And code pink activists had gotten a heads up that he was gonna be going there. And they were inside of the restaurant
- [25:51]
Sagar Enjeti
and they had a reservation. They knew it was coming.
- [25:53]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. So this was, you know, this was preplanned. This wasn't just like, my God, there's the motorcade. Let's go. This was a pre planned protest, which is their right to do, but for the President's security. How that raises, obviously raises crazy questions about how did they get access to this information. And then he mentioned another time when there was someone who was apparently just like a fan, but who wanted a handshake and was able to get like, you know, to anticipate where Trump was going to be and be able to get right at him to get this handshake. Well, you know, it's a supporter, so, nope, there's no harm that was done. But again, this is a massive security breach. So he intentionally raises those two things as like, what is going on?
- [26:33]
Sagar Enjeti
I'm looking at this now. This is from 2015. NYPD suspends detective who snuck into the Ryder cup pretending to be on Trump's security detail. I'll be honest, I mean, both of these are crazy. I was part of the White House press corps and I had to go to restaurants when Trump would go dine. We didn't even know where he was going. They just said, Trump is on his way to a restaurant. We're like, okay, you know, I mean, we could assume, we thought, usually it's the Trump Steakhouse. So that's what we think, but we didn't know. So I was literally in the van behind the motorcade and I didn't know where I was going for context. So how do other people know where he's going? Who tipped him off? What they're point. I guess what they're saying is that in all of these, they're pointing to various different, like, warnings. And look, I get it, this sounds like something out of a novel, like some Tom Clancy level nonsense, but he seems to believe it's real. And if he does, then maybe I should and maybe all of you should. So, yeah. Wow. I just don't know. I mean, I will say for Joe, it's pretty clear he wants to. He is desperate to try and get a message to Trump that you're being controlled by the Israelis. And he's like begging him for and to try to get out of this. That seems to be his main goal in resigning. He said at the end, you hold the cards. But I do think it's like a desperate cry for help at the end. That letter saying at the end, you have the cards. He's trying to, like, shake, and he's like, you have the cards, like you're in control.
- [27:50]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's scary. Yeah, well, and the last thing I'll say about it is, you know, I raised this immediately and I said something similar about Tucker. Like, I understand. First of all, I just want to say I really appreciate that. I think it takes a lot of courage to resign and to speak out in this way. And his life is about to be upended, if it's not already. Sager immediately called it, and sure enough, he's under investigation, threatened with indictment. They're going to do what they can to destroy this man. I don't think there's any doubt about that. And so we should all be grateful to him for coming forward and making his concerns known. I think tactically he's decided. If you listen to this interview with Tucker, he is very, almost worshipful of Trump. Only Trump can get us on his negotiating skills, and he's the whole reason why we had her on at the table. And of course, I'm listening to this and going like, this is the same man who tore up the nuclear deal to come in with. So come on. Right. But in any case, clearly this is his tactic, that he thinks if he's just sufficiently praiseful of Trump and tries to word things properly so that his fragile ego isn't hurt and he gets the message in that he's being controlled and it's really not his fault and he could get that maybe that's the way to have influence. And I just, I think that ship has sailed. I think at this point, you know, your best weapon right now in this fight is the full unvarnished truth. And because there continues to be very clearly a level of a layer here of, I don't wanna say deception, cuz that's too strong of a word, but he's holding back that criticism of Trump because he's trying to play this game of persuading Trump, and it's not still sort of an inside game. It does take some away from the power of his testimony. Because if he's sort of choosing his words and being not fully forthcoming in that regard, then of course it naturally raises questions for people. Okay, well, if you're not being totally upfront about the guy who actually got us into this war, then how can we trust that you're being truly upfront about these other extraordinary claims that you're making in this interview. So that just would be, that would be my view is I understand you're trying to preserve Trump's ego so that maybe he'll hear this message. I understand potentially you wanna run for or you wanna maintain support and credibility with the Trump base and Trump is a God, their cult leader, whatever. So that's tricky to walk that line as well. But I think the most powerful thing you can do right now is just be fully, fully truthful. And yes, the Israelis have wanted this war. They have wanted this war for a long time. They've tried to manipulate a lot of presidents into this war. But this president is the one who said yes. And this president is the one who shut you out after the 12 day war and did not want to hear the other side anymore. This president is the one who took $150 million from Miriam Adelson. This president is the one who created a culture of slaves, sycophancy around him so that reportedly even General Kaine, who he handpicked, et cetera, didn't feel comfortable enough really telling him and sort of used these proxies or hinted at what trouble could come with the Iran war. Trump is responsible here. He is not some victim of happenstance. He is not some poor baby lamb who had no idea and just got walked into this thing and there was nothing he could do. He is the most powerful man on the planet. He is the president of a nuclear armed superpower. And ultimately, yes, the Israelis were doing what the Israelis have long been doing. The responsibility lies with him. And I think that until there's full candor on that point, it will somewhat diminish the power of the rest of the testimony here, which is so vitally important as we face down what exactly this war is going to be.
- [31:41]
Sagar Enjeti
That's fair. We'll see. I'll definitely ask him about some of this. As I said, currently scheduled to interview him tomorrow and premium subscribers, you can submit some questions and we'll maybe pick a few of them to ask Joe Kent again, it's tentative. Who knows, he literally could be indicted by the Trump administration, hit with a gag order. But for now, that's the current plan. Okay, we've got Robert Pape standing by. Professor Pape, let's get to it.
- [32:06]
Amy Robach
Hey there, folks. Amy Robach and T.J. holmes here.
- [32:09]
T.J. Holmes
And we know there is a lot of news coming at you these days from the war, the run to the ongoing Epstein fallout, government shutdowns, high profile trials, and what the hell is that Blake Lively thing about? Anyway?
- [32:22]
Amy Robach
We are on it every Day, all day.
- [32:24]
T.J. Holmes
Follow us Amy and TJ for news updates throughout the day.
- [32:28]
Amy Robach
Listen to Amy and TJ on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [32:36]
Amber Grimes
It's the new me and it's the old them.
- [32:39]
Ana Navarro
Everybody's on their journey, and your journey
- [32:41]
Sagar Enjeti
is different to theirs.
- [32:42]
Amber Grimes
This women's History Month. The podcast if you knew better with Amber Grimes spotlights women who turn missteps into momentum and lessons into power.
- [32:50]
Amber Grimes (continued)
I think coming out of where I came from, I'm from the Bronx. I think I grew up really poor. I didn't know that then because I very much use my creativity to romanticize life. And I'm like, my mom did a really good job of, like, you step back and you're like, whoa, We. I don't know how we made it. So a lot of my life, life was, like, built out of, like, survival to get to the next place. Like, my drive, my, like, tunnel vision of, like, I gotta be better, I gotta achieve this was off the strengths of, like, I want to make a better life for us.
- [33:21]
Amber Grimes
If you knew better brings real talk from women who've lived it, unpacking career pivots, relationship lessons, and the mindset shifts that changed everything. Listen to if you knew better with Amber grimes on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [33:36]
Ana Navarro
I'm Ana Navarro, and on my new podcast, BLEEP with Ana Navarro, I'm talking to the people closest to the biggest issues happening in your community and around the world. Because I know deep down inside right now we are all cursing and asking what the bleep is going on. I'm talking to people like Julie K. Brown, who broke the explosive story on Jeffrey Epstein in 2018. These victims have been let down time and time again for decades and decades and decades by local law enforcement, by federal law enforcement, by administration after administration.
- [34:13]
Krystal Ball
The Justice Department through, I think we counted four presidential administrations failed these victims.
- [34:21]
Ana Navarro
Listen to BLEEP with Ada Navarro as part of the my cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [34:37]
Krystal Ball
So for more on the escalation trap that Trump has gotten caught in in the Iran war, we are fortunate to be joined again by Professor Robert Pape, professor of Political Science at University of Chicago. Great to see you again, sir.
- [34:48]
Sagar Enjeti
Good to see you, sir.
- [34:49]
Robert Pape
Thanks for having me.
- [34:50]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, of course. So, before we jump in, I understand you're having a briefing on this phase of the escalation trap. Just Give people the details so that they can learn as much as possible about your framework.
- [35:00]
Robert Pape
Yes. My substack is called the Escalation Trap. I started it a week before the war to lay out all the stages of what was coming. And I'm sorry to say we are right on track. We're moving from stage one. We're now deep into stage two, and we'll be moving likely to stage three on Sunday. You can join my live briefing on substack. It will start at 4pm Central Time, 5pm Eastern. This will be an hour. You'll be able to put questions in the chat, I will be able to respond, and then I will send answers to selective questions the next day to everybody who joined. So this is a very good way to stay ahead. This isn't just reacting. We're explaining what to expect.
- [35:49]
Krystal Ball
Right. And we will make sure to put the link in our description here as well, so people can easily locate that. So we've been talking in the show about, you know, extraordinary level of escalation here with the Israelis seemingly with the U.S. s ascent striking the South Pars oil field in Iran. Iran, predictably in response, struck significant blows to oil infrastructure throughout the region. How do these actions fit into your framework, sir?
- [36:15]
Robert Pape
Well, they fit actually quite tightly. And our community, the listeners we had before, I understand a million views have been be able to follow things even before they happen. So the Escalation Trap starts with stage one, the smart bombs that hit targets, destroy targets, kill leaders, but don't achieve the strategic objectives. Number one, they did not weaken the regime, topple the regime. They didn't even move the regime to a dovish position. The regime is more hawkish, more dangerous now than ever because the new leaders are just desperate to attack more. And also the power of Iran has grown. So Iran in the last 19 days has grown from controlling 4% of the world's oil to now 20% of the world's oil. In fact, in the last 19 days, Iran has been shipping its oil out. It's made somewhere around a billion and a half dollars. So think about that. All that money to rebuild every everything. And it's in Chinese banks, so we can't get it out. And now we also have the fissile material, that nuclear material. Now we're in stage two, though, they've lashed back. I call that horizontal escalation. And this is what's been going on now for weeks. And it's not spasmodic. They're not running out of ammo. You see big blasts yesterday by Iran. And now the price of oil here is soaring. So we're in stage two very deeply. I've been explaining all this ahead of the time, all the way through, and we're in Iran. That horizontal escalation, it's economic warfare. It's going after the economic pillars of the Gulf states and the world, especially America, of course, and also the political pillars. And this is a long war strategy, an asymmetric strategy. They are not going toe to toe with us in conventional battles. That's why you can take the Iranian Navy off the table. It just doesn't matter. Okay. What's going on is they are. They are not losing. They are gaining power in stage two. And that is sucking us toward stage three. We're not there yet. That's the ground force options. The marines are about 7, 10 days away, but middle of next week, there's a good chance we'll be on the cusp of major decisions here to cross that Rubicon of stage three. That's what I'm going to talk about. Layout in detail on Sunday. This has really become an escalation trap that's become a strategic disaster for the United States, for the administration for sure, but also now for the world.
- [39:07]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, professor, let's go ahead. And guys, let's put F5 up there on the screen. Just again, fitting into your framework, they say Trump has not made up his mind on sending Americans into Iran to seize nuclear material. This also apparently applies to any sort of operation to control the Straits of Hormuz. Again, as I understand that that is stage three in your framework, you seem to think it's inevitable that some sort of ground force operation happens. Give us your reasoning as to why.
- [39:35]
Robert Pape
Yeah. So let me also be precise about estimates. So I don't have a crystal ball. I do risk assessment. I would say that when you. I would use the term inevitable, but what I mean is 75% likely. So I don't think it's quite 100% because we live in the real world. Something could change. But we are heading in this direction. And every step of the escalation trap has been 75% likely. And it has come to be. So this is now, these options here for President Trump. He needs time. The reason that he's talking. Well, I'm not quite sure here, or not quite sure there is, because he needs time to get those Marines there. He's basically killing time while he's waiting for the actual physical options to be available to him. There's probably also preparations happening, not just with the 2500 Marines that are moving from Japan. That takes about 18 days, three or so. That's why the timeframe we can be fairly precise. But also the 82nd Airborne is likely preparing as well because they canceled some of their training about 10 days ago. And that is likely because that's also an option. And what I'm going to be explaining with maps and all this and so forth on Sunday is what we're talking about. And I would describe this as limited territorial control control options. Also, to be precise, they're not probably going to be going to Tehran. That's probably not what we're talking about. And I've been saying even before the war started that stage three would be limited territorial control cars, coastal areas, Estefan. Well, we're going to go into all of that because we're now on the cusp of that. And by early next week, this is going to be front and center in front of President Trump. And I've advised every White House from 2001 to 2024. I realize everybody is trying to read President Trump's mind. This is just simply a mistake. And I realize Trump is mercurial. But it's not just that presidents don't decide until they decide. They really need to understand this, that but we're in the middle of a real war here. This is not some technical military operation that they've pre planned. And he's got preset dates for go codes. These are really, he's on the horns of some very, very major dilemmas here. And if he crosses this Rubicon, my goodness, we could be seeing when this is where the Vietnam analogy will kick in big time. So so far it's been Kosovo. You hear my analogies. Well, they're going to to start to change if we cross this Rubicon because we're going to be in a new set of escalation dynamics. And I'm also sorry to say so far I've only told the world about stage one, two and three. There is four and five if this keeps going, you see. So we're not. Just because we're at stage three doesn't mean we've topped out of the risk.
- [42:42]
Krystal Ball
So let's talk a little bit more specifically about the Strait of Hormuz, which of course has become a central question and aim frankly of this war. We can put F1 up on the screen. So reportedly the US used some of its new 5000 pound bunker buster bombs to hit Iranian anti ship missile sites right along the coast there. So that was significant. I also just wanted to put F3, if we can, up on the screen here, guys, pictures of what this area looks like. I'm told that in the military, the geography matters here a lot. So you can see these sort of sheer cliffs along the side of the Strait of Hormuz. And so I was wondering if you could break down for us, why is this such a difficult problem for the US to solve? And why is it that all of our allies, effectively, at this point, have said, listen, you got yourself into this mess, good luck getting out of it. We wish you well, but we're not gonna send our military assets into the region to directly assist.
- [43:40]
Robert Pape
Yeah, that was fantastic. Those pictures. My goodness, I'm so glad to be on with you. Very few other people are really taking this so seriously to explain to the world what's going on. And also, just so people know, just a few days ago on my substack, I put out the economic battlefield. And point one here is the Strait of Hormuz is becoming the center of gravity. In stage two, it is now the center of gravity because of all the leverage that Iran is gaining from controlling the Strait of Hormuz. And I've already explained that in detail. But the geography here, in order to take territory with ground forces, the offense has to reveal itself. The defense can stay behind cliffs and in nooks and crannies, but if the ground forces are going to take territory, they always have to reveal themselves and be exposed to enemy fire. And what. The more exposure, the more death, essentially. And what you are seeing with those pictures here is tremendous exposure. Now, I am sure I have taught for the US Air Force here for years. I've just talked to the US Army War College before the war kicked off a few days before. We have the best professionals in the world. They will do their best to find the best avenues of approach. The minimize exposure. That's the issue here. Exposure. And to rapidly try to get through the most exposed times. The bottom line, though, is you just showed those images. My goodness gracious. Here, this is going to be a challenge. And this is like saving Private Ryan territory. So they will try to minimize it, but the fact of the matter is, the bad guys are going to know what the best approaches are, too. Remember, this is their home turf, right? So this isn't just they have the home field advantage for three points in an NFL football game. They really know the best approaches. And they've. They've known that for decades. So the odds are there going to be booby traps, are there going to be land mines, are there Going to be X's and Y's here. Are there going to be surprises now? We may have some surprises of our own. I'm not saying we don't have things in our toolkit. I'm just pointing out that once we cross into phase three, this is now at the tactical level. So we've had the tactical. I'll be explaining this. We, we've had the tactical advantage on our side. Once we go to stage three, the tactical advantage is likely to start shifting to the bag, to Iran as well. And that is what we're talking about with the exposure and it's not because we're dum coughs. That's not the issue. We've got the best and the brightest here and nonetheless that's Saving Private Ryan is a good movie to watch this weekend. Just the opening 10 minutes or, or Gallipoli.
- [46:47]
Sagar Enjeti
Right.
- [46:48]
Robert Pape
I'm gonna. Exactly. I was trying to save that. You guys are. I'm telling you this is really unbelievable how well you have done this because you're getting to the depth. A lot of others want to just touch the concepts and others are using the concepts are spreading like wildfire by the way. But you're going and allowing to understand and I'm just so appreciative of this. This is what I started the substack to do. It's not just to have a word or viewers, it's to actually be able to educate because we're so hungry for understanding and we can actually do it.
- [47:25]
Sagar Enjeti
Well, it's because of people like you. We also wanted to put F1 please up there on the screen. Especially given your air power expertise. I'm curious for your reaction here. The United States used its new 5000 pound bunker buster bombs to hit these Iranian anti ship missile sites. This seems very consistent sir, with your framework about the smart bomb trap and the. I believe the intelligence around this would be, well if we remove this then we might have some sort of successful invasion, some sort of successful ability to move ships through the straits of Hormuz. But we've learned because of your work and your studying that it's almost impossible to destroy all enemy capabilities.
- [48:08]
Robert Pape
That's right. So what this tells me is several things. So number one, that 5,000 pound is a bunker buster bomb it's called. It is designed to blow up underground bunkers that are about 20, 30ft underground with concrete and it very likely did that in this, in this case. Number two though, they're going after anti ship missiles now. So far Iran has not fired as far as I know a single anti ship missile here and they have many hundreds of these. And these are our ships when they come forward on open water are essentially giant metal that absorb attack. Because they're out in the water, there's not much collateral, there's not much to confuse the targeting mechanisms and so forth. So what this tells me is we are getting ready to move ships here and our amphibious ships through the Straits of Hormuz. Number three, however, is the Iranians likely have known that any fixed bunker is something that we can find and kill. So the question here is, do we have any intel at all that there was any anti ship? The bunker was clearly there. But what about the actual anti ship missiles? This is. And then the fourth thing is the mountains. So one of the things that you could show on the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of Iran, on Iran side from Dubai is the large mountain range that's right across from UAE and Dubai, that goes on for many, many miles on the coast here. And what you will see is perfect terrain for crevices and so forth. So even if we know exactly where pinpointed it is, oh my goodness, knocking all of that out. And they only need to score one hit on one of our ships. So just think about it for a moment. We're going to have hundreds of folks, men and women on these ships, sitting ducks and they're going through the gauntlet and we may knock out 98% of what's coming at them, but they only need to have one, maybe two hits. And right away you've got dozens, if not hundreds dead and they're dead in the water. You see what I mean? There could be more coming at them there. And then how do you rescue them? So this really is. We may not have a tactical disaster. I can't predict that exactly, of course, but you're just up against the situation here where the other side only needs a handful of things to go right for them. They can have 95% of everything go wrong. And this looks like you're talking right, this looks like this World War I disaster called Gallipoli Tripoli, which just persuaded the world that there was. Anyway, so this, that was excellent though. You really set it up well.
- [51:03]
Sagar Enjeti
Well, thank you very much, sir, we really appreciate you. Anything else, Chris?
- [51:07]
Krystal Ball
Well, I was just gonna ask for a little bit of a preview. You mentioned, you know, you, you go on to stage four and stage five if you want to give us just a little bit of a glimpse of.
- [51:14]
Robert Pape
We're gonna wait on that. I'm Sorry to say, I think I've scared. I've been.
- [51:18]
Krystal Ball
You've given us enough.
- [51:19]
Robert Pape
I'm only doing it because I'm not doing it to just say the sky is falling. I'm doing this in advance of time, when the horizon is really there. So I really would. There is more to say, but we will unfold it in advance, a few weeks in advance here. We're going to keep up that idea, but we're not going to keep then running it so that we have all these nightmare scenarios and so forth and so on. Because again, I want to do it as risk assessment as we go forward. And I think that's really what I'm seeing. The, the audience is really valuing. That's what I'm, I'm getting in the feedback.
- [51:59]
Krystal Ball
And so yeah, well we, we hope that if unfortunately we end up in those phases that you will rejoin and I'll.
- [52:06]
Robert Pape
Oh my goodness gracious. I would be. You invite me one. We should do this once a week. I mean, my goodness, this is just absolutely Thursday this time. You got me. Just keep that in the invites.
- [52:17]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay. Thank you, Professor Pay. I so desperately wish I had a professor like you in college.
- [52:23]
Robert Pape
Well, that's really quite. You haven't been graded by me yet. Wait till you get to the grading part of the not so easy to get the A's necessarily would have been worth it.
- [52:35]
Sagar Enjeti
Thank you very much, sir. We appreciate it.
- [52:37]
Robert Pape
Thank you very much. Okay, bye bye.
- [52:39]
Sagar Enjeti
Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate you. As I said, we're going to have some of those questions you guys can submit if you want for the Jo Ken interview, which should be happening tomorrow. We'll see you all later. And there will still be a Friday show.
- [52:49]
Krystal Ball
Don't worry.
- [52:49]
Sagar Enjeti
So lots of content for everyone tomorrow. We'll see you later.
- [53:06]
Sophia
I became a millionaire overnight and lost everything that actually mattered.
- [53:10]
Sagar Enjeti
Hold on, Sophia, did you just say they lost everything after becoming a millionaire?
- [53:14]
Sophia
That's right. And it gets worse. It's inheriting too much drama week on the OK Storytime podcast, so we'll find out soon. This person writes, I just inherited a fortune after losing my mom and now my girlfriend's entire family is coming out of nowhere with her hands out and my girlfriend is already giving my money away.
- [53:29]
Sagar Enjeti
So the girl he wants to marry is already sending money out the door.
- [53:33]
Sophia
Find out how it ends. Listen to the OK Storytime podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [53:40]
Nick Dickenpole
On paper, the three hosts of the Nick Dickenpole show are geniuses. We can explain how AI works, data centers, but there are certain things that we don't necessarily understand.
- [53:52]
Robert Pape
Better version of Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Yes.
- [53:56]
Unknown Taylor Swift Commentator
Which, by the way, wasn't Taylor Swift who said that for the first time. I actually, I thought it was. I got that wrong.
- [54:00]
Nick Dickenpole
But hey, no one's perfect. We're pretty close, though. Listen to the Nick, Dick and Paul show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [54:10]
Bob Pittman
Hi, I'm Bob Pittman, chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia, and I'm kicking off a brand new season of my podcast, Math and Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing. Math and Magic takes you behind the scenes of the biggest businesses and industries while sharing insights from the smartest minds in marketing. Coming up this season on Math and Magic, CEO of Liquid Death, Mike Cesario.
- [54:30]
Robert Pape
People think that creative ideas are like these light bulb moments that happen when you're in the shower where it's really
- [54:36]
Sagar Enjeti
like a stone sculpture you're constantly just
- [54:39]
Robert Pape
chipping away and refining.
- [54:40]
Bob Pittman
Take two Interactive CEO Straus and our own Chief Business Officer, Lisa Coffey. Listen to Math and magic on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [54:51]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.