← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/23/26: Iran Rejects Trump Ceasefire Claim, Lindsey Graham Demands Boots On Ground, Massive Damage In Israel
00:53:04
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- [00:00]
Saagar Enjeti
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Ryan Seacrest
Guaranteed Human hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway is Stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Hunts, Nerds, Pillsbury, Lowry's, Breyers, Quaker and Culture Pop. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.
- [00:35]
American Military University Announcer
Military life isn't predictable, but earning your Master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 flexible online master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU APUS. Edu steady through every mission.
- [01:06]
Public Investing Announcer
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosure is available@public.com Disclosures hey guys,
- [02:07]
Saagar Enjeti
Sager and Crystal here.
- [02:08]
Krystal Ball
Independent Media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [02:15]
Saagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [02:21]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you. Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:32]
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
- [02:44]
Krystal Ball
Indeed we do. We've got a taco alert from Trump this morning. And as you know, we are pro taco on this show.
- [02:49]
Saagar Enjeti
Very pro taco.
- [02:50]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. So Trump is trying to back down from some of his threats against Iran. The Iranians though are displayed disputing some of the claims that he is making. There is a lot to dig into there. Tritiparsi is going to join us to help to make sense of what the hell is going on this morning. At the same time, Lindsey Graham, of course, pushing for a ground invasion and making a jaw dropping comparison to what it could be like. There have been dueling strikes near nuclear facilities. That seems like a troubling development. The US Is rolling back sanctions on Iranian oil as prices at the pump continue to go up. Bibi claims Iran is targeting near Al Aqsa mosque in a very ominous development there. And really excited to have this morning Lawrence Wilkerson joining us. I don't know if you guys know who he is, but very, very important figure both currently but also throughout history. He was the chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell. He became a prominent Iraq war critic and is incredibly knowledgeable and very insightful about military affairs, about foreign affairs. So really looking forward to getting to speak with him.
- [03:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean Wilkerson was like the Joe Kent really of his time. One of the earliest people who was in the administration after Colin Powell, I guess left office after W was elected right in 05 when it was not easy to speak out against Iraq, he came forward. I remember reading and listening to so many of his interviews. So it was a real honor to be able to speak.
- [04:12]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Someone I very much admire. So looking forward to getting to speak.
- [04:14]
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you to everybody who's been supporting the show. We really appreciate it. We had that big interview with Joe Kent over the weekend. We used a lot of our premium subscriber questions. So seriously, thank you. You guys submitted so many, so many important questions which I used a ton of. So thank you all seriously, very much. BreakingPoints.com if you want to be able to support our and we of course doing our AMA live later on today. But with that, let's get to the taco.
- [04:34]
Krystal Ball
I'm a little bit biased, but I thought your interview was the best of the two.
- [04:37]
Saagar Enjeti
It is very kind of you. I'm much harder on myself. If one of our premiums had done it, I think they would have done a good job. It made some news and I guess that's all you can do. So I'm glad we were able to do that.
- [04:47]
Krystal Ball
It was very important and trustworthy. And I think you pressed him also in the right point.
- [04:50]
Saagar Enjeti
Tried my best. Joe will, I believe he's going to be on the Sean Ryan show today, so maybe something interesting will come out from there. But yeah, taco.
- [04:56]
Krystal Ball
All right, let's get to the taco. Let's put this up on the screen from Trump over on Truth Social. He says, I am pleased to report the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which a spelled it like a witch, like on Halloween. But anyway, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention in this matter. President Donald J. Trump all right, let's go ahead and put a 0B up on the screen if we have that. So Iran already coming out and saying bullshit, we are not talking to him whatsoever. He said this says from Iran now a high ranking source in the Iranian Foreign Ministry to Iran now we deny what US President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Islamic Republic of Iran adheres firmly to its position, rejecting any type of negotiations before achieving Iran's goals from the war. Trump's statements represent a retreat a from his previous threats. But the Islamic Republic of Iran remains steadfast in all its declared positions. Iran's position on the street of Hormuz has not changed and the strait will remain closed to aggressors against the Islamic Republic and its people. So let's back up for a second and talk about how we got here. So Trump had previously threatened that Iran had 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or else Trump was going to attack their electrical grid. This is a war crime. Not that anyone apparently cares about such things but it is pretty wild to see a President of the United States just like openly announcing their intention to commit war crimes. But in any case that occurred, you then had Iran saying, all right, well, if you do that in response, we are going to attack infrastructure throughout the region. Obviously, the Gulf Arab states are very vulnerable both to attacks on their electrical grid. Israel is actually quite vulnerable to attacks on its electrical grid, not to mention if desalination plants get involved. That is a whole other level of escalation. So mutual threats were made, the clock was ticking, and now you have. Oh, and one more piece. Iran also said, hey, by the way, any financial institutions that are holding U.S. treasuries, we consider them to be targets as well. Market Sagar, of course, were looking very dire. Oil prices were going up, bond yields were going up. That might even be more of a threat to the US Economy and the US Government than the oil prices. The market was crashing, the futures were down. And so between all of these combination of things, Trump felt the need to come out and say, nah, well, let's give it a few days. Yes, let's hold back.
- [07:52]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, let's look at the timing of it. The timing of it was very important. 7:00am Eastern Time on a Monday morning, which means what? The S and P futures are rocketing. Oil was down some 10% or so on the initial news. We have no idea. It's gone up a little bit more after the Iranians rejected the idea that there were any sort of direct talks. But this five day stretch, which conveniently is the entire time that the entire market is open, is gonna be one where he's trying to calm the waters initially, spot prices on gasoline. The way that things work is that when oil prices come down, that means in about two to three days, we should also begin to see some of the gas prices go down. He is looking for that billboard flashing all across America. He wants to see people see a reduction in the gas price. However, a couple things before we bring in Treat to Parsi, which are very important to note. The word Israel was not mentioned once in the entire Trump taco truth. Right. Israel may continue to do strikes. We have no idea what Bibi Netanyahu and others have agreed to. Who knows whether, you know, they've decided what strike packages they're gonna move on forward. Don't forget, we're gonna spend a significant time on this on the show. They took a beating over the last 72 hours. Their interceptors are failing, their nuclear strikes, where our nuclear facilities were struck. They had a mass casualty event in southern Israel. Israel is not doing well right now so far in this war. Also, there are thousands of US Forces that are still converging on the Persian Gulf and in the Middle East. So all of the current signs, remember, none of that has yet been called off. All of the current roads still lead to a widening of the war. And then last and most importantly, before we get to Tretaparsi, which people really need to remember, and I've spoken and now confirmed this with multiple security forces or security sources. What the Iranians believe more than anything is that the Ayatollah made a grave mistake by agreeing to that ceasefire in the 12 Day War. He was a very cautious, doddering old man. He's dead. We killed him. Right. With the Israelis, the new Ayatollah and the existing security establishment, remember, the vast majority of their long existing heads, they're all dead. Everybody now is like, no, this is a fight to the death. We have to make sure that we survive. Most importantly, we will not give Israel and the United States time to rearm. We are not going to engage in fake diplomacy after you've bombed us twice in the middle of negotiations. We are not gonna allow these US Forces to converge here while just allowing the US off the hook in the interim. So diplomatic negotiations are going to have to be taken with a massive grain of salt inside of the country of Iran. We have to actually convince their security establishment that this time is different, which is why it was such a folly to bomb them twice under the COVID of diplomatic negotiation in the. So all of those caveats, I think, are so, so important here at the top. This is in no way over. I really don't know why the Iranians would agree to it. I mean, let's be. Listen, I hope they do. I really do. For all of our sakes, for their sakes, and for the world. I just don't see the strategic logic. And this is where Robert Papes and all of the escalation ladder analysis, like, at a certain point, you're locked in a system of incentives which you created. And without that, I mean, you know, absent a serious. A serious backdown and effective surrender from the President.
- [11:10]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
- [11:10]
Saagar Enjeti
And then control over Israel, I don't see how this can end yet.
- [11:14]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean, that's the thing we've been flagging for a while, is that Trump probably wants to taco at this point. He's probably looking for an off ramp, thinking, like, I don't know about this. The midterms are coming up, the gas prices are going up. This is not going great. He thought this would be over in four days. Genuinely thought that the Iranian people would rise up. And after he took out the Ayatollah, that would basically be it. That's what he was telling our allies. And I do think that is what he actually believed. So now he's lost and he doesn't know where to go. I have no doubt that he would look for an off ramp and some way to taco in a way that will save some kind of face and declare mission accomplished. The Iranians get a say in that, and the Israelis, apparently, because we give them a say, they also get a say in it. And so the last thing that I'll note before we get to Trita is that overnight, actually, the Israelis struck in Tehran and there were electrical outages. Now there were blackouts reported. Now, we don't know whether they directly struck intentionally, the electrical infrastructure, or if the blackouts were just a side effect of strikes on other targets. But when I saw that this morning, I thought, oh, boy, this could really be on from Iran. And then the news that came in right after that was the Trump taco. So one possibility here, too, is that Trump is sending Israel out like our little attack dog to go out and do our dirty work, and then he can, oh, no, we want a ceasefire, we want to lessen the tensions here, we want to have productive negotiations, et cetera. So that could be part of what's going on here. But to Sagra's point, the Iranians, they are not going to trust this president ever. All of the outreach that they were trying to do, according to drop site reaching out via Witkoff, you know, and him not having his text messages or his calls or whatever returned. There's an obvious reason for that. There's two reasons. Number one, because the diplomacy has always been a ruse and, you know, given cover for future attacks, which I also think is something that could be going on here with this attempted taco, too, to buy them some time and turn down the temperature until whatever the next phase is, which could potentially be a ground invasion, there's a lot of signals pointing in that direction. So in any case, it could be a ruse. And in the second point here is that the Iranians feel they must exact a lot of pain to make sure they do not end up here again. And I don't think that they feel they're anywhere close to getting the amount of pain in the American public and the global economy that would make them feel comfortable that it would be an effective deterrent in the future.
- [13:39]
Saagar Enjeti
All right, we have Treatise Parsi standing by when we get to it.
- [13:42]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals that earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Hunts, Nerds, Pillsbury, Lowry's, Breyers, Quaker and Culture Pop. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.
- [14:13]
American Military University Announcer
Military life isn't predictable, but earning your Master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 plus flexible online master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace, steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU APUS. Edu steady through every mission.
- [14:44]
Public Investing Announcer
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comdisclosures
- [15:46]
Krystal Ball
all right guys, joining us now for more we have Trita Parsi is Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Great to see. Good to see you Trita.
- [15:54]
Saagar Enjeti
Good to see you sir.
- [15:55]
Trita Parsi
Good to see you as well.
- [15:56]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, of course. So let's go ahead and put a zero up on the screen. This is the big news this morning. A taco, or at least an attempted taco here from Trump. He says, I'm pleased to report the U.S. the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. He then goes on to say that he is going to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period. What is your reaction to the President's truth here? What do you think is going on behind the scenes?
- [16:34]
Trita Parsi
Look, this is a sign of someone who lost control over this war already two and a half weeks ago. You know, a lot of folks are saying, and I think quite correctly, that he realizes that this is a terrible thing for the markets. Yet he should have known that on Friday when he first issued that threat of bombing the Iranian power grids. I mean, if he's doing these things thinking the Iranians are going to back down, then he's learned absolutely nothing in the last three weeks. I've said it on this show before. Part of the reason why we're in this war is because he completely underestimated the resilience of the Islamic Republic and he believed that just a small push would cause them to either collapse or to surrender. None of those things have happened. None of those things are likely to happen. Yet he keeps on issuing various kinds of threats and then backing down, either fully or in a halfway. So for instance, at Harg island he struck the military installations, but not the oil. Reflecting again how clearly he signals that he is extremely sensitive to what happens in the markets and why the Iranians then have such leverage over him because of the manner in which they can completely collapse all energy markets if he further escalates. He is someone who doesn't have any good escalatory options, but he's not willing yet to go down the path of truly exploring what some good off ramps would be. And I hope that he does so very soon because I fear that we will end up in a situation perhaps in two weeks, perhaps in three weeks, in which those de escalatory options will no longer be available to him. Because for him to be able to de escalate, he needs to form a narrative that still claims that he won and that his base then believes that he's won. But if he goes on for too long and it becomes absolutely clear that this is a freaking disaster, then his ability to convince his base that he actually walked out of this with the victory will start to vain. And at that point, unfortunately, his incentives to exit may actually decline compared to the incentives or the cost benefit analysis of just continuing the war or actually escalating. So there's a very short window here in which he has to find that exit ramp. And that means that he's going to have to be willing not to just say that he talked to the Iranians, but actually put things on the table. And I think Joe Kent was absolutely right in saying there needs to be some sanctions relief in order to get out of this situation. And it can be done in a way that is actually quite good for the United States itself.
- [19:08]
Saagar Enjeti
Dr. Parsi, something you have hammered home here is that the Iranians truly believe they made a massive mistake at the 12 Day War, that they should have just kept firing, they never should have done a ceasefire. I see no reason why that logic doesn't remain today. The Ayatollah is now dead. He was one of the more cautious figures. Many of the so called moderates or people who are willing to talk are also all dead. So the remaining security establishment and perhaps the existing Ayatollah, they do not see this as a reasonable off ramp. You keep talking about a possible one, but to me it seems very unlikely because it would be effective. Surrender from a person who called for unconditional surrender. Sanctions relief at this point seems genuinely unfair, unthinkable from the Trump administration. But is that what it's actually going to take? What would it even look like?
- [19:56]
Trita Parsi
I think that is what it will take. Look at the things that the Iranians have said that they need in order to back down. And I think some of them are unlikely. So for instance, they're asking for all of the US bases in the region to be closed down. I don't think that's going to happen. I think we can see a situation in which some of them may not be rebuilt and some of them may be slowly commissioned out. And some of these states may change their security approach in the sense that they will no longer ask for US bases, but they will continue to buy a very large number of American weaponry. And that that may actually be a smarter way for them to deal with their security issues, rather than actually hosting bases that end up becoming targets and magnets for attacks. They've asked for reparations. I find that also extremely unlikely to happen. The thing that I think is not completely incorrect, conceivable, is actually that there will be a level of sanctions relief. Now, I think the administration itself has already opened the door for this by claiming that, you know, they're unsanctioned. The oil on the water. Now, we know that they've done it in a strange way, but nevertheless, that is opening up the pathway for entering into that territory. I do worry about another thing. And you pointed out that, you know, the Iranians think that they committed a mistake, that they ended the war after 12 days, agreed to a ceasefire when there were significant indications that the Israelis were running out of the arrow 3s and that the Iranian missiles were just getting through at a higher and higher rate, even though they were shooting less of them. The problem, though, is the Iranians may very well end up doing the very same, committing the very same mistake that the United States has committed, which is to overplay their hands in this war and not find the right moment to be able to strike a deal. And the objective has to be, from their standpoint, to create a new, stable situation that is acceptable to them, and it is acceptable to the GCC and ultimately to the United States as well. Just going on and on because you're winning without recognizing that you need to find an end state that is acceptable is not a smart strategy. And that's, frankly, what I believe the Trump administration is doing right now. So the Iranians have to find that moment as well. And again, as I said earlier on, that moment may be lost if they wait too long, because if Trump cannot declare victory convincingly to his own base and he can't form that narrative, then his ability to exit this is going to become very, very difficult.
- [22:27]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's a great point. I also wanted to get your reaction. So the Iranians are saying this is not true. There are no talks going on. We also have all these reports. We could put a 10 up on the screen. We've got more Marines being sent into the region, thousands more Marines being sent into the region. This was another report from an Israeli source that says senior American officials have told their counterparts in Israel and other countries in recent days there will probably be no choice. The US Will be forced to launch a ground operation to capture the Iranian island of Kharg. According to two sources familiar. We all know that at this point that 90% of the oil that's exported from Iran goes through Kharg Island. Of course, there have been all kinds of reports in the US Press about potentially that or potentially an operation inside of mainland Iran to seize loose nuclear material. Is it possible that what Trump is doing here is not only a very obvious attempt to calm the markets but is also another sort of ruse to get the Iranians to drop their guard while he prepares for this next phase of escalation.
- [23:30]
Trita Parsi
It may very well be that that is his intent. I don't see the Iranians lowering their guard in any way, shape or form under these circumstances. I think they have now been burned so many times that they're not going to trust anything this administration says. And again, this is actually why they're requesting sanctions relief. Let me just explain a part of this that I think is very important to understand why this, I think is going to end up being non negotiable from the Iranians as long as they have leverage. If they lose the leverage, different story. Obviously from their standpoint, it is crucial, absolutely imperative that this is the last war. This cannot end in a way in which the US attacks Iran together with Israel in another six to eight months. They're not going to accept or be able to survive if they end up becoming part of Israel's larger mowing the lawn strategy. The same thing they're doing against Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, but now on a much larger scale vis a vis Iran. Now how do you then get to a situation in which you have a degree of confidence that you're not going to get attacked again? Are promises from the United States going to be sufficient? Is a non aggression pact in and of itself going to be worth the paper that it is written on? I very much doubt that they will seek those different things, but that will not be sufficient in order for them to believe that they have managed to prevent future attacks. Rather, it's going to be two other things. One, they want this war to be as costly as possible so that it will simply be absolutely clear to the US and to Israel that it is not worth restarting this. It was a mistake starting it. It will be a mistake restarting it. That's point number one. Point number two is that they need that sanctions relief to rebuild themselves. And rebuilding themselves is going to be essential in order to have the deterrence against the US and Israel attacking against. If they don't have sanctions relief after this war, they will be in a state of continuous weakening. And it is precisely the perception of them being weak that created this false window of opportunity to attack Iran. So unless they get the sanctions relief so they can actually rebuild themselves and have a deterrence, they believe they will be attacked again. So I don't see them backing down from the point of asking for sanctions relief. It's not just because of economic reasons. It is because it is Part of the thing that gives a non aggression pact some actual bases and meat to it. And as a result, I just don't see them backing down from that point unless they lose their leverage.
- [26:05]
Saagar Enjeti
The other problem, sir, we have not talked about Israel once in this entire equation. And they are a huge, you know, they precipitate much of the violence that's actually even been happening. Some of the most egregious strikes. So how can the Iranians, frankly, how can even the Americans, at this point, the people, have any faith that our government would restrain belligerent Israeli action in any sort of a deal? Like, if you're Iran, you don't just have to worry about the United States bombing you, you have to worry about Israel. And for example, we have a list of some of the demands that were circulating this weekend. Can we put, what is it, a seven, please, up on the screen? So these are some of the demands that were going around this weekend of what? Some Iranian commitments. They would have to agree to no missile program for five years. I mean, that alone. Imagine you're in a war and somebody says, hey, to end the war, you have to give up all your bullets for five years. They're like, well, maybe I'd be better off just firing all my bullets. Number two, zero. Uranium enrichment, decommissioning of nuclear reactors, arms control treaties with regional countries, no financing for regional proxies, strict outside observation protocols around the creation and use of a centrifuge, notably no word of sanctions relief. I mean, do you see any world where this country whose only, like, reasonable deterrent is missiles, would be even willing to give up their missiles for five years? Like, what could we possibly give them
- [27:28]
Trita Parsi
to do that this is absolutely not gonna take place? And the intents behind these demands, I suspect that they actually originally come from Israel, is to make sure that there is no deal, just as much as zero enrichment. And all of those different demands coming from the Israeli side were designed to make sure that they sabotaged Trump's previous diplomacy and guaranteed war. This is a list of demands, at least the first three points, that are designed to make sure that there will be no ceasefire, there will be no end to the war, and the Israelis get what they are looking for, which is as prolonged war as possible in order to completely eliminate and destroy Iran's industrial base, ensure that the balance of power shifts dramatically in Israel's direction, and that Israel will not have to worry about Iran ever posing a challenge to Israel's designs for hegemony for the next three to four decades. And to have that achieved, regardless of what the cost is to the global economy, to the energy markets, to regional stability, and to Trump's presidency, that is the Israeli goal. And they will achieve that by putting forward demands that are completely non starters.
- [28:40]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly.
- [28:41]
Krystal Ball
I just wanted to ask you directly about this. So there's obviously two competing claims here this morning. Trump is saying, these talks are ongoing and they're very constructive. And the Iranians are saying, we have no idea what you're talking about. There are no talks. We don't want any talks. Do you have any insight or what would be your instinct of who is telling the truth there in that exchange?
- [29:03]
Trita Parsi
I know in previous instances in which the administration said that there were no talks and that there were talks and the Iranians said that there were no talks, that the administration was not being truthful there, that there were actually no. Now, the administration may have sent messages. They never got any responses. They may define talks as them talking, but reality is that they were responses from the Iranian side. And I don't believe that there have been any responses in this specific instance either. But I want to go back to what I said earlier on. I do worry, however, that the Iranians may also at some point overplay their hands and not recognize the moment in which they need to cash in on whatever leverage they think they have in order to try to get to some sort of a deal. I think it's very, very important to understand one thing. Neither side can pursue the humiliation of the other in this situation. If they do, they're just digging themselves deeper in a hole. Both sides need to be able to construct some sort of a narrative that allows them to exit this war in that sense, however unlikely or frankly, lunacy it may sound when I say this. But Iran and the United States are, in some ways in the same boat. They will either sink together or they will roll to shore together and pursuing some sort of humiliation of the other side, which was exactly what the US did in the beginning of this war and sought to surrender Iran was a huge mistake. It will be a mistake if the Iranians do the same thing. And I want to just say one thing. Remember that the Iranians humiliated the United States 47 years ago with a hostage crisis. That was a huge mistake. It led to 47 years of sanctions, tensions, and eventually war. It would be a huge, huge mistake at this point if they also overplay their hand and don't recognize the right moment to go to the table, but to negotiate an actual good deal. Not one of these things that are just aimed at calming down the markets and prepare the grounds for the next attack during the next weekend or something like that.
- [31:09]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I mean, that's why it's so difficult to see how you reach that Goldilocks moment where the US is not completely humiliated, Iran is not completely. Where both sides basically can declare mission accomplished in some way. Because I have to imagine the Iranians don't feel that they've come close to exacting enough pain to serve as a deterrence. And yet if they do that, then how is Trump going to convince a public that is already really opposed to this war that this was a grand adventure and that he came out on
- [31:38]
Trita Parsi
top and add one other element to it, which is even if you find a moment that looks right, you have to recognize that these talks are not gonna be like the 16 hour talks that it took or so to get to the ceasefire in June, because that was an unconditional ceasefire. This is going to be more complex. So the actual time that that diplomacy may require may be 10 to 14 days in the best case scenario. And during that period, the Goldilocks moment may be lost.
- [32:10]
Saagar Enjeti
Totally agree, sir. As always, thank you so much for your analysis.
- [32:14]
Trita Parsi
Thank you.
- [32:14]
Saagar Enjeti
I'm not sure I feel better. I'm not sure I feel better, but it's always better.
- [32:17]
Trita Parsi
No one has said that after speaking to me.
- [32:20]
Saagar Enjeti
Thank you, sir.
- [32:20]
Krystal Ball
Thanks. Trust me, you.
- [32:21]
Trita Parsi
Thank you.
- [32:23]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store wide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Lindor, Chips Ahoy, Gatorade, Host, Ziplock and Zoa. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.
- [32:54]
American Military University Announcer
Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 flexible online master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on Masters tuition tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu steady through every mission.
- [33:24]
Public Investing Announcer
Support for the show comes from public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
- [34:27]
Saagar Enjeti
meanwhile, while we're on Taco Watch, we have to continue of course to pay attention to the thousands of US Ground troops that continue to move to the Middle East. And we have Lindsey Graham trying to set expectations for everybody here, taking to Fox News Sunday and saying not only should the United States take Carg island, but comparing it to the battle of Iwo Jima. Let's take a listen. Here's what I tell President Trump. Keep it up for a few more weeks. Take Carg island where all of the resources they have to produce oil, control that island, let this regime down a vein.
- [34:58]
Krystal Ball
Is this going to though take Carg Island? Is it going to involve US Troops on the ground? Let me let me just read you something from the Atlantic. Doesn't it assessment on that. They say U.S. troops may well take Cargill and we believe their ability to do so, but only to endure ballistic missile strikes, drone attacks, petrochemical smoke, all without a reliable means of obtaining logistical support. The result could be a grinding war of attrition. They talk about how far away they would be from resupply.
- [35:21]
Saagar Enjeti
Sort of tired of all this armchair quarterback and this has been amazing military operation God Bless the fallen.
- [35:28]
Krystal Ball
But it's a difference when we talk about troops on the ground.
- [35:31]
Saagar Enjeti
I trust the Marines, not that guy. I trust dod. We got two Marine Expeditionary Units sailing to this island. We did Iwo Jima. We can do this. We did Iwo Jima. We can do this. Anybody want to tell me the Casualties on Iwo Jima, we got about 7,000 killed and 19,000 wounded. Was that a. Is that the similar stakes that are involved here in the middle of this expeditionary, you know, adventure chosen Excursion. Excursion, yeah. It's not even a war. It's an excursion. That's what. But Iwo Jima, I mean, it's being. Floyd, I think this is the perfect clip to show you how these individual Marines are just pawns on a chessboard to people in Washington that they use the mythology of the heroism of the past to whitewash all of the ways in the post World War II era that their lives have just been carelessly thrown into these wars of choice and adventurism, which accomplished nothing to the benefit of the United States, has bled us dry, blood and treasure. And meanwhile, the individual families who either lost somebody or have somebody wounded or whose family member was affected by ptsd, they have to deal with the wreckage. That's why this bothers me so much. Like this. Bravo, you know, bravado, chest thumping. Each one of those individual lives who was lost on Iwo Jima is not fodder for you to then claim some of their glory in order to advance your regime change. War of choice, which has now been a total and a complete disaster. And I think it demonstrates how all of these service members have been treated. Now, the 13 killed, the 200, 300, who knows how many who have been wounded now so far, the thousands that are already just being moved into the region for some sort of potential operation, but that's what they're now trying to prepare the American public for. And also, by the way, I should say this, you know, Iwo Jima had a huge backlash here in the United States. A lot of people don't remember that time period after there was. After clearly the war in Europe was either winding down or, you know, there had been the armistice or whatever had been signed. Well, the American public started asking some serious questions. They're like, wait, why are we taking tens of thousands of casualties out here? Like, we need to wrap this up very quickly. And the Pentagon or I guess the War Department or whatever at that time was having a lot of conversations. How do we prepare the public for an and ground invasion of Japan? So, like, even in the conflict with the most bought in US Public, whenever we were taking these level of casualties, they were like, whoa. We're like, we need to hold on. They're like, what's going on here? Are we sure this is necessary? The atomic bomb ends up happening, and so everybody conveniently forgets Iwo Jima's casualties and Okinawa, but it was not like that domestically. And that, again, was a war where probably 90% of the public were on
- [38:18]
Krystal Ball
board, bought in on that war.
- [38:20]
Saagar Enjeti
And he wants to try and recreate this disastrous type of circumstance. We talked with Professor Pape about the parallels Carg island or the Straits of Hormuz, and we're talking about Gallipoli. These are like global changing events. The Aussies still remember Gallipoli. I mean, you know, like one of my tour guides when I did a World War I battlefield tour. Like, 100 years later, the descendants still come to Gallipoli to see what their great, great grandfathers had to go through. I don't think we should be going about that. I think we should do everything in our power to avoid some sort of a nightmarish situation. And this is. This is the problem, is that they're so caught into this mythos. Everything is always World War II. That's why. What do they say about the Iranians? What does Mark Levin in the. Oh, they're Nazis. Right? Everybody's always a Nazi. It's always 1938. It's always either Munich and our enemies are always Nazis. There's no, you know, there's no in between. That's the only conflict that you're ever allowed to talk about.
- [39:13]
Krystal Ball
Reminds me of which Iranian official was it that posted online? Like. Like, Americans remember. Well, when General Westmoreland came and said
- [39:20]
Saagar Enjeti
things were going right, it was Arachi, the foreign minister. He said, americans, remember. Well, General Westmoreland, I'm like, sir, I wish we did.
- [39:28]
Krystal Ball
Vastly overestimating us, I'm sorry to say, sir.
- [39:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Sir, I wish that were the case. A lot more Americans should know General Westmoreland's name. One of the most villainous military figures in US History.
- [39:38]
Krystal Ball
There's a handful of historical events that you could count on, maybe most Americans remembering or having, like, learned about. That's definitely not one of them.
- [39:46]
Saagar Enjeti
They don't make Saving Private Ryan movies about General Westmoreland. Again, literally, one of the biggest liars in the US Military. The most villainous military.
- [39:53]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, we like to sweep that one under. Those don't get approved by the Pentagon script people who look at the scripts for Hollywood. Yeah. I mean, this is sick and it's disgusting. And it's also really important because this is not just some senator, unfortunately. This is a guy who was extremely influential in bringing us to this point of war. There was a. I believe Bloomberg did some digging into, like, how the hell did this happen? And you Know, the Mark Levins of the world, the Ted Cruz came out and also said he was really pushing in this direction. I don't know if that's true or not, how influential he was, but he's, like, wanting to take credit for this right now for some reason. So you had a handful of voices here in the US and then obviously the Israelis, very influential as well. You had these media personalities, too. And then, you know, you had Trump high in his own supply after Venezuela, and all those things came together to create this horrific, horrific set of circumstances. So when Lindsey Graham is out there talking, you know, he's saying these things directly to the President.
- [40:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly.
- [40:51]
Krystal Ball
The other thing that I'll say about, you know, the whole setup there is he's dismissing this analysis of like, oh, this is gonna be really bad. And he's like, I don't trust them. I trust the Marines. Well, and I trust the military. It's like, well, the military, the ones that tried to tell Trump that this was gonna be a disaster, I don't know how forcefully it was done, but. But they had war, gamed this out years ago, especially the straight of Hormuz part, and were like, this is not going to go well for us. They saw all of the peril on the horizon. But he thought he knew better and wanted to listen to Israeli intelligence instead of US Intelligence, wanted to listen to Israeli war planners instead of US War planners. And now here we are. The other thing I've been thinking a lot about Sager, is I really was resistant to this idea that you had of, like, we should actually have age limits. But I am coming around to it, because when you have these old men, childless old men, who. Not just childless, like, Trump is not childless. I'm talking about Bibi, I'm talking about Trump. I'm talking about the now the martyred Ayatollah. I'm talking about Lindsey Graham. They don't have to live in the world that they're authoring. And they're thinking about. I mean, Trump talks all the time about whether he's gonna get into heaven or not. Like, clearly he's thinking about his own mortality. I think Bibi is, too. Netanyahu is, too. And so they're willing to take extreme, extraordinary risks with the entire world, because their major concern is, like, I want to be viewed as this great man of history, as this historical figure. And I really think in Trump's case, I'm not sure he cares whether it's for good or for evil. He just wants to be remembered. He wants to leave his mark on the world. And he really doesn't have to give a shit what's gonna come after because this man is not gonna be on this planet for that much longer. It creates grave danger. It creates a risk landscape that is truly, truly unacceptable for all of the rest of us. So I do genuinely think it is a massive problem the way these old men are thinking about their legacy and how they wanna leave their mark versus like how do I make sure that we are considering risks appropriately and not ending up in some sort of an insane nuclear escalation.
- [42:53]
Saagar Enjeti
There's a lot to be said. When we were talking with Trita Parsi, he was talking, I mean, you could tell he is very concerned that the Iranians will make a similar mistake to the US and that we will not try for some de escalation, that they will not seize their moment which will lead to their inevitable destruction. To your point, I don't think it's an accident that the youngest president in American history is the person who got us onto a diplomatic off ramp which basically didn't exist during the Cuban Missile Crisis. And you know, sorry for the history lecture, but like, it is important to think this was a person who literally broke his back on PT109 and had to swim in the ocean carrying a wounded man, you know, his life jacket strapped in his teeth to try and save him. Now it was kind of his fault in the first place, but whatever. The point that remains is that while he's in the situation room, he was a guy who at that time was, you know, low level. I think he was like a lieutenant and he's sitting across from these generals who successfully fought in the Second World War. And he's like, they don't understand the stakes of like what it actually means to fight and to die in combat. And so for him it was so important to seek that diplomatic off ramp and to at least gamble and to try. In the Cuban Missile crisis, the famous responding to the first letter, not the second letter, and agreeing to some things which were anathema to the US security establishment. The removal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey, that is the most courageous act, I think, in the history of the American presidency. It saved the world from Armageddon. I don't really think it's an accident that you had a very young person who was willing to reject the, the 60, 70 year old security establishment of the people who are around him. And you can see now very clearly as it's repeated now all throughout history. Yes, these older men, people like Lindsey Graham, People who are like, Lindsey wants his legacy to be total regime change in the Middle East. He has no children and he's in his 70s. Like, this is it for him. He wants a Senate building named after him. By the way. Unfortunately, the Senate buildings, two of them, Rayburn and Russell, are named after childless old men who their entire life was, you know, the Senate. And that's fine. But, like, of course, they didn't have anything to live for. They didn't have to live necessarily in the world of their making and of their consequence. Like, this is really important to the Ayatollah as well. He's 86. Whenever he was killed, you know, and. Yeah, I mean, Jesus.
- [45:07]
Krystal Ball
Although out of all of them, he showed a lot more caution.
- [45:09]
Saagar Enjeti
He showed a lot of.
- [45:10]
Krystal Ball
And then his younger replacement is likely to not follow in those cases.
- [45:13]
Saagar Enjeti
See, that's the problem. His caution. He. He was too cautious to start a war and not cautious enough to avoid one. I actually think he was the worst of all wars. I mean, with old people, what do they do? They daughter. And they. They're in. You know, they're indecisive. And I think that's really, ultimately, I. I really don't think he's very blameless. I. I think he. He really made a lot of mistakes,
- [45:31]
Krystal Ball
especially they should have pursued a nuclear weapon. He wouldn't be in this right now. I mean, that's the reality is I. And as much as I hate to say that because I, you know, I bore nuclear weapons, I would love to. For proliferations to be rolled back. That's just not the reality we live in right now.
- [45:45]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly. Last thing I do want to show everybody too, is that before the taco, it's not like the American establishment wasn't sounding very, very bellicose. Let's put a nine here. Secretary Scott Bessen, who is somehow the war defender on television this weekend, saying, sometimes you gotta escalate to de escalate. Take a listen. We are taking out their missiles, their
- [46:06]
Public Investing Announcer
missile systems and the factories that build those missiles.
- [46:10]
Saagar Enjeti
And now General Kaine, Secretary Hegseth are leading a campaign to destroy all the fortifications along the Straits of Hormuz.
- [46:20]
Krystal Ball
Just to put a fine point on this, though, is the president in the process of winding down this war or escalating again?
- [46:26]
Saagar Enjeti
They're not mutually exclusive.
- [46:28]
Public Investing Announcer
Sometimes you have to escalate to de Escalate crew.
- [46:31]
Saagar Enjeti
Sometimes you got to escalate to de escalate. Do not forget, as they covered on The Friday show, a 10. Put that up there on the screen. That you just had American officials telling their counterparts in Israel there may be no choice in order to launch a ground operation to capture Kharg Island. There could be various other schemes and plots that are afoot. There's another 2,500 Marines, let's put that one up there on the screen, that are currently on their way. They're not even going to arrive for three weeks. So don't you know, this really could be a delaying action. You've got two of these Marines, expeditionary forces that are on their way to the Middle East. The one that's coming from Asia, they said it would take two to three weeks. That was about a week ago. So it's still on track. And this one, I think also has to sail from the west coast all the way to the Persian Gulf, which is going to take a little while. So we are in no way out of the woods here just yet. Want to make sure that we take that with a grain of salt. All right, let's get on to the nuclear section.
- [47:25]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tech bags to earn on eligible items from Lindor, Chips Ahoy, Gatorade, Host, Ziploc and Zoa. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.
- [47:56]
American Military University Announcer
Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be. With American Military University's 40 plus flexible online Master Master's programs, you can stay mission ready while you get market ready. Learn anywhere, anytime with an education built to keep pace, steady, reliable and always accessible. Plus, military service members, veterans and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition with AMU's special rates and grants. Learn more at AMU Apus Edu. Steady through every mission.
- [48:26]
Public Investing Announcer
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated Assets are like ETF with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures
- [49:29]
Saagar Enjeti
turning now to some very troubling escalatory things that were happening before the so called Trump Taco. Again, let's not forget that it may not be a real taco. Let's start with B1. Let's put this up here on the screen. A very strange situation with a alleged strike on Diego Garcia.
- [49:46]
Krystal Ball
Attempted strike?
- [49:47]
Saagar Enjeti
Attempted strike, yes, sorry. An attack on a base 2,500 miles away from Iran. The Wall Street Journal saying it signals more aggressive military posture for the regime. Iran brings Europe into range with missiles that were fired at Diego Garcia. We have a map just to show you all exactly how far away and the distance that it would be. It would be the longest IRBM that has happened so far in the war. A lot of people were using it as evidence of why we had to attack Iran in the first place because it's like, oh my God, look at these madmen. They have long range ballistic missiles. But there are still some very strange indications around the entire attack. Let's put B2 up there on the screen. From the NATO Secretary General. The NATO Secretary General Mark Rut says, quote, the alliance cannot confirm Israel's claim that missiles targeted Diego Garcia were Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles. The other thing to note is that you really are not exactly aware of the leak because you have Israel allegedly claiming the strike from Diego Garcia. The Brits have been very cagey about it. There's been some anonymous leakage that happened to Reuters and a few others and people are taking it as fact. Now you could take that explanation a variety of ways. It could be the Iranians don't want to acknowledge the strike on Diego Garcia because like they said it would show some of the powers that they not previously had said that, you know, had not previously indicated they have. Have. I'm not really sure why that would be. I would want a claim in if I were them, because it shows a credible amount of deterrence strength, ability to strike Europe if they wanted to, but maybe they don't want to yet. Open the box whenever it comes to that. The second part is somebody else did it. You can surmise who of who exactly would want the war and all that widening. And the third option is it wasn't a missile, it was a drone or some other sort of alleged attack. Or the fourth, I guess, is that absolutely nothing happened. Remember, there's still an information black. We have no satellite imagery. We basically know nothing in the last, like, five days or so, unless it came out of Israel or Iran in the Gulf and everywhere else. Even though there's still been attacks, the video has dried up to a trickle. They're threatening to prosecute people for tweeting out videos. So that Diego Garcia one, you might have heard it. Be very cautious with that claim. There is not any real evidence yet that has actually happened.
- [51:59]
Krystal Ball
So, yeah, that is really important to say. The only evidence we have is from the US Saying that this occurred. We have no other evidence. There was no strike that actually hit the base. You had one. This is their claim. One that allegedly, like, failed halfway and another one that was intercepted. The Iranians are saying this was not us. That's their claim. And the reason that there's good cause to be skeptical is because this has immediately given a propaganda talking point to proponents of the war who say, C, the Iranians were lying about the limited range of their ballistic missiles, C, Europe is at risk. Don't you see how we can't believe these people and we have to take them out because they pose a threat to all of the Western world. That's the. You know what? Bibi immediately began pushing all sorts of pro war influencers in the U.S. they all began pushing that talking point. And when you have this, you know, this NATO dude who is a total Trump sycophant, it even saying, like, well, we can't actually confirm that it came from Iran. That, to me, was the biggest red flag of, like, I don't know that this really even went down at all, let alone went down the way that they're claiming it went down. So in any case, possibly Iran has this longer missile range. That would be a very significant development. Or possibly this is all effectively a ruse to provide more justification for a war that is extremely unpopular and to help to cajole the European allies to get in the fight where they have been somewhat resistant thus far. So that's the reason to be really skeptical of these claims until we have any think, you know, more approaching definitive proof.
- [53:40]
Saagar Enjeti
And the reason why is that things are not going well for Israel right now. And there's every reason in the world to actually want to continue to justify the propaganda effort against Iran. Let's go and put the next one up here on the screen. Let's put B3, please. This was a very significant development that happened, happened over the weekend. Iran said that the US And Israel had attacked the Natanz nuclear facility. There actually have been a very limited amount of strikes, ironically, on the nuclear facilities across Iran. They said that the Natanz enrichment complex was targeted this morning. We don't yet know what any of the actual like, damage would be. They said, quote, there was no leakage of radioactive material that was reported and no radioactivity material was released previously had been targeted by Israel in the 12 day war. Now the reason why this is very significant is because immediately what followed were massive Iranian strikes in Dimona, where Israel's secret nuclear program is alleged to be. Let's go and put some of the video up here on the screen. I mean, this is shocking stuff, right? Like, not only do you see a ballistic missile just striking deep inside, you also can see multiple instances of interceptors that were failing. Not nearly the number of interceptors that originally are launched at some of these ballistic missiles. And you can see the direct strike that happened that was able to penetrate the missile defense systems in Israel. It was immediately followed up by. And let's go to B5 here where Trey Yingst over at Fox News reported a mass casualty event in the city of Arad in Israel where at least 100 people were injured. Let's take a listen right now. We're here in Arad where last night
- [55:26]
Public Investing Announcer
an Iranian ballistic missile slammed into a residential area.
- [55:31]
Saagar Enjeti
You can see the amount of destruction here. At least 100 people were injured, according to first responders. You can see the buildings here that were on fire. There is destruction for blocks. Right now. First responders are still combing through the debris, ensuring that there are no unexploded ordinances as Israeli officials arrive here at the scene to survey the damage. So there you go. That was the report there from Trey Youngst who was on the ground. I think the two of these things we could take. First of all, the missile that allegedly struck in Dimona. That missile appeared to show some evasive maneuver near the end. This was according to some independent analysis that I saw. That would be some of the more advanced weaponry that the Iranians continue to have. And so what can we take away from that? So they have the ability to target a secret nuclear facility. It's exactly tit for tat. You strike us, we strike you. We're able to penetrate your air defense. We're actually saving some of our more advanced missiles, which you claim 95% have all been wiped out. If you combine it with the alleged Diego Garcia attack, you actually would see a much stronger Iraq from where we are in the last, let's say, two weeks before, which would validate some of the analysis that we've heard here on the show about how they had sought to wipe out interceptor stockpiles and then reserve some of the drones and some of the ballistic missiles to target very selectively. And they have the ability to secret nuclear facilities, specific bases, Patriot missile batteries, thaad interceptors, like any of these places, which are very pinprick strikes, but designed to inflict, inflict maximum damage and to deliver a major strategic message. So that's why I think these are very important. Israel very clearly is in a hurt position right now. They do not want to be in a place where their nuclear facility or their cities are taking strikes, where they even had to issue an apology to the population in Iran being like, the interceptor didn't work. We're sorry. I mean, this is not what you saw in the opening days of the war. And it's clearly a sign of desperation. We know for them, I mean, the whole Genghis Khan quote, you know, from Bibi and all that, like, you only know which way that that's gonna go in terms of their own response. They're gonna say, okay, we have to have a total war. Try and drag the US Into a ground invasion.
- [57:39]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, that's exactly right. Which is why it's important to keep in mind, even if Trump does want to taco, it's not only Iran that gets a say in that, it's also apparently Israel. Let's go ahead and put B6 up on the screen. This underscores your point about the messaging coming from the Iranians. They're claiming. For the past three weeks, our operations were maneuvers to explore the weaknesses of Israeli air defenses. Today, we control Israeli airspace. No one can intercept Iran's missiles. I mean, I think that's, you know, obviously bluster and over the top, but it does appear that as their number of launches have kind of declined to a lower, steady state, they're able to inflict more damage. So more of their missiles are finding their targets now. Also important to underscore, they did not actually hit, hit the nuclear facility in Dimona. Was that intentional? Was it meant more to just send a message of, hey, this is something we could do if we want to look how close we're able to strike, or did it miss its target? That's open question. But the other thing that I think is really significant here in terms of the Israeli saga is there has been lockdown censorship in Israel about showing some of the damage and showing these missiles in the sky, et cetera. Now, you had Trey Yinx there on the ground. You had Netanyahu touring some of the damaged sites, talking openly about the level of casualties, et cetera. So there has been a shift in their propaganda approach, which I think is also really noteworthy. And you have to ask why. What made them decide that they're going to acknowledge some of the damage that has been inflicted and acknowledge some of the civilian casualties? And we'll get to this later. We'll hear more from Netanyahu later about, like, oh, my God. God, the civilians. Which is just to hear that man pretend to care about civilian life is just beyond disgusting. But I do think it's interesting to know some people are saying, well, what are they preparing for? What are they trying to prep the ground for by acknowledging these strikes that did, in fact, inflict civilian damage and inflict casualties on civilians there within Israel. So I think that's another important piece of this story.
- [59:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean, we're setting the stage here for our eventual conversation about BB Be later on in the show, because obviously he's making crazy claims. They're trying to widen the war. By the way, just came across the wire. Despite Trump's taco, the Israeli Air Force has begun a wave of airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure sites.
- [60:02]
Krystal Ball
Against Israeli infrastructure sites.
- [60:04]
Saagar Enjeti
Sorry, no. Israel has begun a wave of infrastructure targeting in Iran, literally after the Trump taco. So really, almost an hour later. Yeah. The Israeli Air Force Force is striking Iran.
- [60:15]
Krystal Ball
We know that because they had struck their infrastructure last night as well, and
- [60:19]
Saagar Enjeti
saying that they're continuing again this morning just to keep everybody sorry, the show, everything is moving, fluid.
- [60:24]
Krystal Ball
Well, and here's the thing. I mean, this is why Trump loves to play this game. And I do think it's the same game as what Biden would play with Israel, too. Of like, oh, I'm so mad at Bibi, blah, blah, blah. And over and over again, we get the same thing and Trump plays the same game. And so, you know, I look, it's possible Israel's freelancing, but I think it's more likely that there's a coordination here where Trump wants to keep his hands clean but still allow the damage to be inflicted on Iran to keep the, you know, to keep the pressure on and, you know, keep sort of manage the escalation by pretending that he's innocent of whatever the, you know, the bad Israelis are doing. And oh my gosh, I'm so mad at them for doing this. But you know, I would be surprised if they didn't have some sort of green light, or at least not a red light from the US in these type of attacks.
- [61:11]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, exactly. Who knows exactly what's going on? All right, let's get to oil.
- [61:15]
Ryan Seacrest
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- [62:46]
Saagar Enjeti
this is an iHeart podcast.
- [62:49]
Krystal Ball
Guaranteed Human.