← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/24/26: Trump Iran Negotiation Fantasy, Insider Trading On Iran War, Pentagon Preps Boots On The Ground
01:01:06
Loading summary
Transcript126 lines
- [00:00]
Sarah Spain
This is an I Heart Podcast.
- [00:02]
Vital Proteins Ad Voice
Guaranteed human when energy dips. Your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for vital proteins, collagen and protein Shake in chocolate with 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides. It helps support healthy hair, skin, nails and joints in a smooth, ready to drink shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital proteins stay vital. Visit vitalproteins.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.
- [00:36]
Lowe's Home Care Plus Ad Voice
Introducing Home Care Plus, a new subscription service from Lowe's that helps make life easier by giving members a hand with home maintenance. Let Lowe's tackle the tasks you keep meaning to do, like electric dryer, vent cleaning, replacing hard to reach light bulbs, and more. Subscribe to Home Care plus for just $99 a year and consider your to do list done. Members get more at Lowe's. Available in select zip codes only. Cancel anytime Non refundable fee Product purchase required Terms and service restrictions apply. Details@lowes.com Terms subject to check change Modern
- [01:06]
Comcast Business Ad Voice
enterprise has a lot of moving parts. Comcast Business helps you orchestrate it all with SD WAN working at scale to keep 150 hospital locations connected and working as one plus SASE and zero trust security protecting financial data across a bank's 2000 branches and AI powered networking that optimizes traffic across five continents. No one does business like Comcast Business.
- [01:34]
Krystal Ball
Hey guys, Sager and Krystal here.
- [01:36]
Saagar Enjeti
Independent Media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:43]
Krystal Ball
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [01:49]
Saagar Enjeti
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:00]
Krystal Ball
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today.
- [02:11]
Saagar Enjeti
Crystal Indeed we do. We've got some new reporting from Jeremy Scahill about what exactly is the truth behind these alleged negotiations that Trump touted between us and Iran. We'll break that down for you. Also treat to Parsi Digging into just how much money Iran is actually making off of this conflict might be surprising to a lot of people. Kind of reminds me a little bit of the Russian Ukraine war situation. So break that down. Revelations that apparently some people are getting very rich off of Trump's market timed announcement yesterday. So. And you know, enforcement apparently doesn't exist anymore. So that's a thing that's happening. Brandon Weikart is gonna join us again to talk about the troops that are being moved into the region and what they could be used for. Top Israeli politician is pushing for annexation in Lebanon as part of the Greater Israel project. This is all unfolding against a backdrop of mass pogroms in the west bank, horrifying scenes there, airport chaos as Trump blocks a TSA deal. And we're gonna take a look at the use of AI in the Iran war and also the just bizarro world where two of the three leaders, heads of state here, have been rumored to be dead and actually just be AI so you already can see this destabilization of reality that's happening in real time.
- [03:25]
Krystal Ball
That's exactly right. Thank you to everybody subscribing to the show. BreakingPoints.com if you're able to support us. We deeply appreciate it. Also, a call to all of our YouTube subscribers. We got like 50,000 to go to 2 million. All right, we can all sleep easy at 2 million. So 2 million subscribers. Let's just get it done. Let's get it done. You know, I just, it's one of those. I never thought it would happen. I really did it. And now here we are, we're on the Verge. So two, we're at 1.95 million. So let's get it done. Hit subscribe to the YouTube channel.
- [03:53]
Saagar Enjeti
Help me catch up with Kyle. Come on.
- [03:54]
Krystal Ball
All right, what's he at?
- [03:55]
Saagar Enjeti
My marital pride is on the line. He's at 2.2.
- [03:58]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, but he's had years.
- [03:59]
Saagar Enjeti
He's like a 60 year head start. So it's time for us to take the lead again, guys. Come on.
- [04:04]
Krystal Ball
Okay, it's time for us to take the lead. Hit the subscribe button on YouTube, please. Really helps us out. And if you're listening to this as a podcast, share an episode with a friend. Really helps other people find the show, as Krystal said, though, let's go ahead and start with these so called negotiations. Do they even really exist? Well, our friend Jeremy Scahill over at Dropsite News spent a lot of time speaking with the Iranians, doing some reporting. Here's what he had to say.
- [04:27]
Jeremy Scahill
The most breaking stuff I have for you is that Trump today posts on Truth Social that there's been this breakthrough that he's pausing his threat to bomb the Iranian electrical grid and other energy infrastructure because there have been these talks going on between the United States and Iran. And Trump implies that he has some secret squirrel that he's talking to in Iran and he doesn't wanna name who it is because he doesn't want that person to be killed. It's unclear does he mean by Israel or by, or by the Iranians, you know, but what I'm told is that there have been no negotiations, direct negotiations with the United States, and that what the Iranian officials are telling me is that every time a third country comes to Iran and they say the United States wants to talk, Iran says, let us explain to you our conditions. And in short, what the Iranians are saying is that they will not agree to the kind of ceasefire that took place last June after the so called 12 Day War, because the Iranians view that as having been a gimmick to buy the United States and Israel time to rearm, to reposition and then come back in with this full blown war that they launched on February 28th. So they're saying they won't go for just a ceasefire that doesn't have conditions attached to it. They also want any cessation of the war not only to apply to Iran, but to apply to two other fronts of battle, as the Iranians see it. Iraq as well as Lebanon, where the Israelis are increasingly engaged in ground operations, very heavy bombing. Hezbollah, which Israel had said was wiped out, has been launching dozens upon dozens of rockets every single day into Israel. So they want those two countries also to be party to this ceasefire deal. They're also saying that they want reparations paid by the United States and they want Israel to pay. But they don't want Israel to pay directly. They want that to happen through the United States because they don't want to take anything directly from Israel.
- [06:26]
Krystal Ball
Good update there from Jeremy on the negotiations and he's exactly right. From everything that we've been able to figure out. Let's go to the next one and put this up here on the screen. So basically, for the best we can tell, here's what happened the last couple of days. Two days prior, Sunday, very early morning our time, the Turks, the Egyptians and several other countries gathered in Egypt. Diplomats from those countries, they were able to make contact with the Iranians and obviously they're also speaking to the United States. The Pakistanis were party to these talks as well. The Turks in particular have a better relationship with the Iranians, they've been talking quite a bit to several of the people over there. They have been reaching out to them about what potential peace deal would actually look like. The Iranian line is very simple. A cessation of all hostilities, not now, but forever. As in, we need a total and a final piece to this conflict. Second, we will demand some reparation of some kind, either in payments or in sanctions relief as a result of this war. The United States line. The Egyptians and the Turks have been calling the United States. This is what eventually caused Trump to taco and to say that he was calling and extending his five day deadline off the United States line remains today. No ballistic missiles, no regional proxies, no nuclear program. Now remember, on the nuclear program, they've already said that they're not gonna pursue a nuclear program. But on the ballistic missile front, and especially on the regional proxy front, those two, it's a non starter. Regional proxy is already a nebulous term. It means nothing. But let's talk about the ballistic missile. I mean, really think about this. You are in a war and the other side says, well, we will stop shooting you if you just give up all your bullets. What are you gonna do? All right. And by the way, that's the only deterrent that you actually have, the only ability to extend and project power, have some deterrence, have to be able to extract some cost from the enemy and its allies. Would you give up your missile program? Five years of a new of a missile, basically giving up not only missiles but all of your production. Who would be stupid enough to sign up for that deal? Oh, and by the way, you've been bombed twice under the COVID of diplomacy. So this is where things now currently stand. Now a lot of things could change. So let's put a three up here on the screen. I do want to be clear. There are efforts right now by the Pakistanis. So here's some dropsite. Pakistan is emerging as the key back channel. They have positioned themselves as central intermediary between Washington and Tehran. Various outlets confirming active efforts to facilitate the conflict. The Financial Times said that senior Pakistani officials have been relaying messages between Tehran and Wyckoff with the Prime Minister speaking several times with the President of Iran as well. Reuters had said that the Vice President, Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner would expect to meet them in Islamabad potentially this week. But again, there's been no confirmation. There are people who are out there posting jets that are on their way. Totally wrong. I actually confirmed it. It had nothing to do with that. It Was a Pentagon official bridge Colby, he was on his way to India. He's not going to Pakistan. Pre scheduled trip already had been announced. Has nothing to do with, with these potential negotiations. So that's where we stand. As of right now, we are nowhere closer to any sort of a peace deal. And in fact, like, what you really see is a desperation on Trump's behalf, on Trump's side, to portray the reality of this while giving nothing on the back end. And that's why I think setting the stage for this while there's this kabuki going on to try and prop up market prices and crude oil futures while thousands of ground troops remain on their way to the region, which we'll talk about with Brandon. What have we learned now? Under Venezuela and under Iran, follow the carrier strike groups, follow the troops. That normally is the precursor to military action, no matter what nonsense that he's saying out there in public. So I just wanna be very clear, there does not appear to be any breakthrough whatsoever in these talks.
- [10:17]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, that's right. I mean, the Iranians are sending back here are what our demands are. And as much as you might think the Iranian demands sound delusional, things like reparations, their demands are actually much less delusional than the American demands are at this point. Because from the Iranian perspective, they're like, we're winning this war. Like, you just had to Taco, you threatened to blow up our entire electrical grid. We were like, all right, bet, then we'll blow up, you know, various assets in the region. And Trump just before the markets was open, was like, well, let's pillows press pause for five days. Now, I continue to be of the opinion, and I think Sager, based on his comments just now, is also of the opinion that a lot of this is just buying time for Trump to amass these additional forces in the region, once again using alleged diplomacy. This diplomacy doesn't even exist. It's fictional diplomacy as a ruse in order to pursue whatever next escalation he wants to pursue. And then meantime, by the way, the war is ongoing. It's not like Israel struck within Iran yesterday and then Iran struck back. There were blackouts reported in Kuwait. Wait, they were able to hit inside of Tel Aviv. So this war continues, you know, while this supposed cease five day ceasefire, once again, time for the markets to close on Friday. I think we've seen once again, you know, the thing that really does scare Trump is the bond markets. And that was a big problem, probably even a larger issue for him in the immediate term than the than the oil price of oil per barrel. So. So that's where we are. And here's the other piece. I go. I want to go ahead and put a nine up on the screen. This is from Trita Parsi, who did some digging into the war economy for Iran, and what he find may really surprise you. He says, energy industry insider in Iran tells me the following, and it is stunning. Before the war, Iran produced just shy of 1.1 million barrels of oil per day and sold it at $65 per barrel minus an $18 discount. So roughly $47. Today it produces 1.5 million barrels a day, so more, and sells it at $110 with only a two to four dollar discount. So they're producing more and they're selling it at a vastly elevated price. This, he says, does not include petrochemical sales that not only have increased, but are now being sold to a larger set of customers compared to before the war. Moreover, Iran is receiving payments through new mechanisms that bypass the uae, which were set up after the June war. In essence, and this is really important to understand, Trump and Israel's war has ended up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief. That means Iran is all the less incentivized to end the war unless the agreement provides Iran with formal sanctions relief. So far to the contrary of the idea that they were going to decimate Iran's economy and it's going to be a disaster and they're going to have all this economic pain, no, they're making more money, more money because of the war. And of course, obviously, they continue to control the Strait of Hormuz. And apparently, what was not anticipated, I mean, Trump didn't anticipate they would close the Strait of Hormuz at all. But certainly what was not gamed out and anticipated appears to be the fact that they'd say, no, no, we're not actually closing this Strait of Hormuz, we're just closing it for you. We're still gonna sell our oil. And if you wanna come through and you wanna pay our $2 million toll and you want this to be denominated in Chinese Yuan, come on down, we're happy to have your business. And so this has created a very unlikely dynamic here where, again, in terms of putting pressure on the Iranians to get them for some sort of concessions from them, we are in the total opposite land right now. The US Would have to make some serious concessions right now if they wanted to end this war. And I'm not even sure it's possible at this Point, Because I mean, number one, if Trump just like withdrawed in humiliation, it would basically be the end of the American empire. You know, total humiliation is certainly be the end of his presidency. But number two, Iran needs those guarantees that we're not gonna be back here again in the near future. And that part of how they get that guarantee is by exacting a severe price. So that not just Trump, but every future American president understands, oh, this is not a good pursuit.
- [14:24]
Krystal Ball
This is part of the problem. We're locked in a real battle of bad incentives. Cause what you could actually hear in Trita's voice yesterday, he's afraid that the Iranians think that they're riding too high right now, that they're gonna keep absolutely pressing. And let's be honest, they are riding high. So just this morning, India's Reliance confirmed one of the large. It's like one of the largest industrial conglomerates in India. They just purchased 5 million Indian barrels of Iranian formally sanctioned oil. A bunch of ships that just passed through the Straits of Hormuz straight on their way to New Delhi. All right? And so the Indians, you know, again, you know, look, it's not just my heritage. I just respect the way these people conduct business. They're like, look, we're not with America, we're not with Russia. We're in it for us. There's cheap oil on the market. We're gonna buy it. What did they do? They're not party to the war. They called the Iranians up. Modi's like, my dear friend, the President of Iran. Every leader is his dear friend. He calls him up and he's like, hey, I need my ships through. I need oil. They're like, okay, no worries.
- [15:19]
Saagar Enjeti
Although I think the US also gave them the green light.
- [15:22]
Krystal Ball
No, no, that too. But I'm saying if you put all this together, you can clearly very see here that other countries are exploiting and going end loops to the extent that they can around the United States. So what does Iran feel? They're in the pole position. They're able to command the strait. They're able to demand in some cases. There are reports of people paying $2 million for passage, which is approximately $1 per barrel, easy. They'll be able to reclaim that in an insurance surcharge later on down the line. They actually feel more emboldened. If you're the irgc, you've established some credible deterrence, you've gotten rid of this IDIOT supreme leader, 86 year old. He was always holding us back. Now we have our new guy who injured, whatever. Basically who's controlled.
- [16:07]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, the IRGC is running the show.
- [16:09]
Krystal Ball
Of course, if there's any doubt about it. Here's the other thing. What have the people been telling us now for years? The IRGC are corrupt goons while the rest of the country starves. They get rich as treated. They're getting richer. They're more rich than ever before. They're more in control of the company, of the country. They control all the political facets and they're getting filthy rich. Now off these oil sanctions. Would you surrender in that scenario? Now listen, they could be destroyed by a US ground invasion. But that's coming on later.
- [16:38]
Brian (United Healthcare Employee)
I'm Brian. I work at United Healthcare.
- [16:41]
Vital Proteins Ad Voice
So Brian, why do you care?
- [16:43]
Brian (United Healthcare Employee)
I care because I don't want to leave anybody behind. I oversee one of the biggest resource centers in United Healthcare. I see people walked in my office every day just like my parents. They have no idea about the health care. I feel like they are my uncles, aunties. I treated people like family. I'm Brian and I'm committed to care.
- [17:07]
Sarah Spain
This is Sarah Spain from Good Game with Sarah Spain, brought to you in part by Vital Farms. Let's talk eggs. Vital Farms Pasture raised eggs to be exact. My favorites. The only kind I've got in my fridge. No joke. And here's why. These aren't your average eggs. The hens live on open pastures with fresh air and sunshine all year long. They forage on local grasses and stretch their wings. They're living their best life. That care really shows in the taste. I love mine scrambled with a little butter or whipped up into a fancy frittata. And here's something most people don't know. You could trace your eggs back to the farm they came from. Seriously. Side of the carton, you'll find the farm name. Type it in@vitalfarms.com farm and you'll get a 360 degree peek at the pasture. Plus, VitalFarms is a certified B corporation, which means they're committed to improving the lives of people, animals and the planet through food. Eggs you could feel good about. So next time you're in the store, look for the black carton in the egg aisle and visit vitalfarms.com to learn more. Vital Good eggs. No shortcuts.
- [18:06]
IKEA Bedroom Storage Ad Voice
Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good you don't have to sell your favorite things to make space with Ikea bedroom storage solutions. Dressers, wardrobes, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can hold onto it all your vintage band tees. Keep em those limited edition sneakers they stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walk in closet? The Pax wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails and compartments so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Storklinta six drawer dresser is perfect for denim sweaters and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, Trofast storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and cleanup fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom storage today at IKEA US/ bedroom storage.
- [19:07]
Krystal Ball
And this just to show you all how like the control that they have. Let's put a four up here on the screen. So the speaker of the Iranian parliament. I'm not going to try and pronounce his name. I apologize. The Israelis and the US Were saying that he was the person they're negotiating with. Immediately after those reports break, here's what he puts out. Our people demand the complete humiliating punishment of the aggressors. All officials stand firmly behind their leader and people. Until this goal is achieved, no negotiations with America have taken place. Fake news is intended to manipulate financial oil markets to escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped. So it actually does appear as if they have, you know, look, maybe he took a phone call or not. We have no idea. Right? But what we do know is that he's at the very least pressured internally for him to actually come out and deny this. And you know why? We know some of this. Trump let it kind of slip. Trump was asked on the tarmac yesterday, who are you talking to? He says, a top person. And I can't tell you who it is. I don't want them to be killed. Let's put a six and let's take a listen.
- [20:14]
Steve Witkoff
Steve Witkoff speaking with Mr. President, a top person. Don't forget, we've wiped out the leadership. Phase one, phase, phase two, and largely phase three. But we're dealing with the man who I believe is the most respected and the leader. You know, it's a little tough. They've wiped out, we've wiped out everybody. No, not the supreme leader. Nobody wants to be that. Nobody wants that job right now. You know, nobody's exactly looking forward to being the head of that particular country, but perhaps we'll be able to solve that problem.
- [20:51]
Krystal Ball
So he says he can't tell you who it is. Cuz he doesn't want them to be killed. Now, they might be killed by the Iran. They also could be killed by the Israelis. Right?
- [20:57]
Saagar Enjeti
So let's clear there's a lot of
- [20:59]
Krystal Ball
people who might be killing him. The second thing is that he's obviously flailing on the Straits of Hormuz. So for example, somebody asked him, he said, who's gonna be in control of the Straits of Hormuz? Someone says it'll be. He says it'll be jointly controlled by who? He said, maybe me and the next Ayatollah. Take a listen to that.
- [21:18]
Sarah Spain
Who's going to be in control of it?
- [21:19]
Steve Witkoff
That'll be opened very soon. If this works, how soon and who's in control of it?
- [21:24]
Saagar Enjeti
Will Iran still be able to control
- [21:25]
Sarah Spain
the flow of oil?
- [21:27]
Steve Witkoff
Be jointly controlled by who? Maybe me. Maybe me and the Ayatollah. Whoever the Ayatollah is, whoever the next Ayatollah. Look, and there'll also be a form of. A very serious form of a regime change. Look at Venezuela, how well that's working out. We are doing so well in Venezuela with oil and with the relationship between the President elect and us. And maybe we find somebody like that in Iran.
- [22:00]
Krystal Ball
Still has Venezuela fantasies after the war continues to spiral, says Mimi, the next Ayatollah. So what does that. I don't. I don't acknowledge the current Ayatollah. So I might have to kill the current Ayatollah. These things can only be accomplished through massive ground force invasion, nuclear weapons. I mean, I hate to say all these things, but there's just no other option. Like if you have the. The only off ramp is basically surrender, which, I mean, as you said, his psyche. Not just his psyche. Think about it. Like something I've been thinking about a lot is what Joe Kent told me is one of the reasons he resigned to trying to put pressure is he said, I've been inside and I know how the CENTCOM machine gets rolling. And what he means by that is that there are not guys, the joint staff planning forces, they don't view themselves as political, but they have lived for this in a lot of ways. So when the President is like, I need all options on the table. They're like, we've been working on this for 40 years and we start pulling stuff off the shelf. 82nd Airborne Marine Expeditionary Force. And once that stuff starts to get into the system, the machinery, think about how hard it is to roll it back. Because now they're like, well, we've got to Finish the job. It's a military objective. Nobody ever sits back. This is the job of the President and his advisors to be like, is any of this a good idea? Should we be doing this at all? And that machine, as we see the carriers still on their way, the Marine expeditionary forces converging, 82nd Airborne planes that are all coming over. Once that stuff starts, it's very hard not to use it. Cause now it's in theater. Might as well be an option. You take, like I talked about Kennedy yesterday, a supreme act of courage and genuine intelligence to say, no, we're not doing any of this. This is madness. We don't see that right now in the Situation Room. So if you take that rhetoric and you take the stuff that's all on its way, what other conclusion can you draw? Same with the Iranians. They're so confident right now, it's scary. I mean, and I think, you know, don't take my words for it. Take treatise. Like, he is genuinely worried they're going to overplay their hands and it will lead to their total and complete annihilation. To their detriment and to ours. It'll be bad for everybody who's involved.
- [23:58]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, he just, in all his comments and in his decision making, he really has this, like, childlike understanding of the, you know, they leaked to Politico. I guess even Barack Ravid wasn't buying this bullshit that the golly boff, the guy who, you know, we put up his, his tweet earlier and that Trump was sort of alluding, like, oh, we've got a top guy that we're talking to. And of course, they're completely denying it. Anyway, somebody leaked a Politico, like, oh, he's a hot option right now. It's like, this is not Venezuela, number one. Number two, you're just completely full of shit. Number three, you think you're just gonna, like, swap out some characters in the entire country of Iran with some, like, 90. It's gonna be yours. I mean, it's so insane. And this has been apparently the thinking from the beginning of Trump of like, if we just murder the Ayatollah, then it'll all be ours and we can play him like puppets and do whatever we want. The military knew that was not going to be the case, but he didn't wanna listen to them because he had his own idea about, like, well, it worked in Venezuela and Bibi tells me it'll work here, so we're just gonna, gonna go for it. I mean, it truly is such a, like, Kindergarten level understanding of the world. And that comes out too, when he's like, oh, maybe me and the Ayatollah are gonna control the Strait of Hormuz together. The Iranians put out a meme. Did you see this? In response, Sagar? That was like, you know, it was like a car where you have the normal steering wheel and then you have the kid's steering wheel there. That obviously doesn't do anything where it's like, oh, he's pretending to drive the car, etc. I mean, just complete mockery of this man because the whole thing is so stupid and so insane. But the bottom line is today, you know, Trump is actually not really in a position to say when this war ends or how it ends. That is on Iran and it's on Israel. He has ceded so much control to the Israelis that, you know, if, even if he wants to end the war today, and I think it's possible he does want to end the war today, the Iranians get a say. And the Israelis, because of our weakness and our desire, our decision to cede so much of our foreign policy to them, they get a say as well. And that's why this thing is such an incredible, intractable mess heading towards Quack
- [26:08]
Krystal Ball
Iron and why we shouldn't have gotten into it in the first place. But up there on the screen, this was from the Prime Minister of Israel. He says, earlier today I spoke with President Trump believes there's an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements to achieve, to realize the goals of the war through an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests. But he continues, just a few days ago, we eliminated two more nuclear scientists. We are still active. We will safeguard our vital interests under all circumstances. At the same time, we are going to continue to strike in both Iran and Lebanon. We are smashing the missile program, the nuclear program. We continue to deal severe blows with Hezbollah. And as we'll show you all later, the strikes continue. Unabashed and completely so as of thing where things stand right now, the negotiations don't appear to be going anywhere. And if they do meet, the two sides are very, very far apart. I find it incredibly hard to believe that the Vice President would be in Islamabad sometime this week. Also on the Steve Witkoff front. Well, what do the Iranians say? Why would we trust you? We met with you twice. We got bombed both. I do not trust you, period. And as Jeremy and Ryan remember when Wyckoff and all them were trying to convey the message that their messages were being sent. Yeah. Just cause they're being sent doesn't mean that they're being replied to. They've never released any evidence that the Iranians actually responded to anything. If anything, this story is confirmation that the Iranians will not talk to the US because the Turks and the Egyptians and everybody else is starting to get involved. And I want to put this up here at the top. We're on the brink of actual regional conflict. So for example, the Saudis are leaking now to the Wall Street Journal. They said one more strike on critical infrastructure or water, we're getting in the war, we're going to start striking. The Gulf Arabs have all been leaking to all of these different outlets saying that they now agree with the idea of regime change because their fundamental security is threatened. Which means everybody's incentives is for longer, more protracted war. Do you wanna go to war? Do you wanna send Americans to die for the Dubai real estate market? Okay, for onlyfans girls to be able to live comfortable lives in high rises in Dubai or fitness influencers who are too much losers to make it in the United States to make it over there. I'm good, actually. All right. And that's what they want for us or the Dahran compound? No. Okay, we're good. But that's where the incentive structure is for every single person, including the Iranians. Which is why honestly I just think this is genuine, like nightmare.
- [28:34]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, well, I mean, UAE at this point, they almost have to get some sort of regime change.
- [28:39]
Krystal Ball
That's what I'm saying.
- [28:40]
Saagar Enjeti
They're screwed already. Their brand, Dubai's brand, Abu Dhabi's brand as like you know, the playgrounds for the rich and you know, almost like a little caravan from the rest of the tumult of the region. That's dead. It's over. We've all seen the videos of like your airport on fire and you know, bombs landing or drones hitting luxury high rise buildings. Who, who of our global elite is going to choose Dubai as their location now? And that's their whole thing like that is really where they've staked their claim. So unless they can, you know, completely overturn the, the government in Iran and have some, I don't know, Russell Lafi or some other puppet government that they feel totally comfortable with, it's not coming back. So. And again, this is part of Israel's goal in all of this is they knew this idea, it'll be a four day war and it'll be, they knew that was nonsense that they were selling to Trump, right? And he was dumb enough to buy it and foolish and arrogant and vain enough to surround himself with people who wouldn't tell him the hard truth and to shut down anyone who might have told him the hard truth, as evidenced by Joe Kent being completely, completely shut out of any of the conversations and the debates leading up to this war. So, you know, so now you've got this intractable conflict that just continues to grow and Israel is happy to have all of these countries in. That is exactly what they want. That's why it, you know, appears that they may have been involved in some false flag attacks to make those Gulf Arab states feel even more under threat. But I mean, make no doubt about it, Iran is striking within those countries as well because they're like, look, you're complicit, you're hosting these bases. Attacks are being launched from your soil towards us. So sorry, fair game. That's, you know, that's where we are. It really is. Every week that goes by inching more and more towards total and complete war. And this is also the Pandora's box that's been opened by Gaza and the barbarism that just is accepted now.
- [30:32]
Krystal Ball
Yep, it's so bad. Let's get to insider trading.
- [30:38]
Spencer (United Healthcare Employee)
I'm Spencer and I work at UnitedHealthcare.
- [30:41]
Vital Proteins Ad Voice
So Spencer, why do you care?
- [30:43]
Spencer (United Healthcare Employee)
I care because my daughter Adalynn has special needs. I am motivated by Adeline who inspires me every day. I am driven to help families like mine navigate the healthcare system. I'm so blessed to lead an amazing team at UnitedHealthcare, focusing on the member experience and making that better. I'm Spencer and I'm committed to care.
- [31:07]
Sarah Spain
This is Sarah Spain from Good Game with Sarah Spain, brought to you in part by Vital Farms. Lets talk eggs. Vital Farms pasture raised eggs to be exact. My favorites. The only kind I've got in my fridge. No joke. And here's these aren't your average eggs. The hens live on open pastures with fresh air and sunshine all year long. They forage on local grasses and stretch their wings. They're living their best life. That care really shows in the taste. I love mine scrambled with a little butter or whipped up into a fancy frittata. And here's something most people don't know. You could trace your eggs back to the farm they came from. Seriously Side of the carton you'll find the farm name. Type it in@vitalfarms.com farm and you'll get a 360 degree peek at the pasture. Plus, Vital Farms is a certified B corporation which means they're committed to improving the lives of people, animals and the planet through food eggs you could feel good about. So next time you're in the store, look for the black carton in the egg aisle and visit vitalfarms.com to learn more. Vital Good Eggs no shortcuts Ever feel
- [32:07]
IKEA Bedroom Storage Ad Voice
like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space with Ikea Bedroom Storage solutions. Dressers, wardrobes, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can hold onto it all your vintage band tees keep em those limited edition sneakers they stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walk in closet? The PAX wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails and compartments so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The storklinta six drawer dresser is perfect for denim sweaters and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, Trofast storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and cleanup fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters to most. Don't sell anything you love, store it instead. Shop Ikea Bedroom Storage today at Ikea US Bedroom Storage
- [33:08]
Krystal Ball
Turning now to insider trading, a very important story that we absolutely cannot just let slide. So we recall yesterday we talked a lot about Trump market manipulation. It turns out that market manipulation definitely worked out for several people, but we don't know any of their names. Let's start with the first one. Let's put it up here on the screen. Here we have from the financial times traders placed 580 million in oil bets ahead of Donald Trump's social media post on Iran talks. Is that normal? No. Apparently it's not. Fifteen minutes before the Trump post touting productive talks, 6200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts change hands between 6:49am and 6 6:50am New York time on Monday, a quarter of an hour ahead of the president's post. $580 million was the notional volume trading volumes left at the exact same time 27 seconds before 6:50am Futures tracking the S&P 500 jumped in price moments after the oil trade volumes rising significantly during that timeframe. Trump's announcement at 704 triggered a sharp selloff across the global energy markets and jumps in the S&P 500 stock index and European equities as investors dialed back bets on a prolonged conflict. The well timed trades echo the flurry of large, highly profitable bets made on polymarket for the timing of the US Attacks in recent months on Iran and Venezuela. The White House has denied that they had anything to do with this. The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration is doing what's best for the American people. Hmm. Well it just turns out though that again it's not just the Financial Times talking about this before the next one who CNBC confirming and actually were the first people to report this that the volume in the stock and oil feature surged right before the minutes of Trump's market turning post exactly at that 6:55am S&P 500E mini futures recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume. So we don't know the exact profit that these people have made. Some say it could be well over north of a billion dollars for what the eventual bet turned out. Of course the SEC has not responded for comment about whether they'll be initiating an investigation. The cftc. So these are the macro bets but there were hundreds of other bets made in poly market like in other prediction markets which were able to trace which show some level of insider knowledge traders at the individual level booking a million dollars or so and these people booking billions potentially. I mean and who knows, you know this is only what we know here in our equities markets around the world. We have no idea what those countries might be looking into.
- [35:56]
Saagar Enjeti
And this is just like the blatant obvious stuff too.
- [35:59]
Krystal Ball
These are the people who just, you know, did it obviously who knows what long term contracts and other people that have out there. And you know we can't let this go because I think that this demonstrates a couple of things. This is an undemocratic war. The Congress did not vote for it, the people do not support it. It continues to be advanced on behalf of Israel and then some people here in the United States government and at the very same time that they are explicitly timing many of their war. Can you imagine trying to schedule D day around when the s and P500 open?
- [36:30]
Sarah Spain
What are we do?
- [36:31]
Krystal Ball
And that's the point is that this is not a war that we're all bought into. It's a war which is being waged almost honestly directly against the interests of Americans. On my way here to work, every billboard, what am I looking at? 399 a gallon, 3.99 a gallon, 3.94 a gallon, 401 a gallon. I mean this stuff, it's brutal for everybody who is living this at the diesel level, what is it now? 550, something like that. You got people all over the country who's Getting broken in a single month. We were just looking this morning. 401 withdrawals are at an all time high. It's a disaster. Mortgage rates at 7, mortgage rates. I mean, it's like every, every level across the book, your pocketbook, things are being hurt by this war on top of our strategic position. Everything else and not, you know, that doesn't even bring in the lives of American service. There's 13 already who've been killed. It's a nightmare. And these people are getting filthy.
- [37:23]
Saagar Enjeti
And then to add insult to injury, you've got insiders who are making bank. And this is just routine at this point. I know. How many times has Trump come out with some market moving, truth, social that minutes before it comes out, someone's trading, you know, making big and unusual bets either on Polymarket or on the stock market that just happened to pan out, happen to come just before he makes the announcement. I mean, you'd be a fool not to see it at this point. It's utterly disgusting. The stock market is so beyond fake. It's just like a playground for insiders to siphon off even more wealth for themselves at the expense of literally everyone else. I mean, to your point, Zachary, I'm just looking at the national average now today, the national average for a tank of gas, regular, unleaded,398. And for diesel, we're looking at 535. And you know, as much as you directly feel that regular unleaded at the gas pump, that diesel is the part that really triggers, goes throughout the entire economy and very quickly, because obviously that's what all the, that's what all the truckers are having to pay and that's gonna get passed on. They're gonna get squeezed and then you're gonna get squeezed. So it's disgusting. And let me add this. The US SEC's ex enforcement chief clashed with bosses over Trump cases before leaving, according to sources. This is from Reuters. So I saw someone flag on Twitter that this enforcement chief over at the SEC had just resigned earlier this month, right before. This level of insider trading is clearly happening in conjunction with the war. And so Reuters was able to get the scoop about what was actually going on here. And lo and behold, it was over a lack of enforcement, especially with cases that have ties to Trump and the Trump family. So Reuters reports the US SEC's top enforcement official who left abruptly last week, had clashed with agency leaders over the direction of its enforcement program, including the handling of cases with ties to Trump and his family. According to three people familiar SEC Enforcement Division Director Margaret Ryan resigned last Monday after just over six months on the job. Reuters was first to report her resignation. Email seen by Reuters did not say why she was leaving and she declined to comment. Two of the people said Ryan wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct, including in cases that touched the President's circle, but faced resistance from SEC chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican political appointees. Of course they deny it. One case they say that sparked tension in particular involved cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun, a major backer of Trump's family's World Liberty Financial venture. That's their crypto grift. Another involved Tesla boss Elon Musk, big donor of course to Trump's campaign, who briefly served as the President's special advisor. So there you go. Top enforcement official wanted to actually attempt to do some portion of her job. The, you know, head of the SEC was like, no, we're not doing that. At least, certainly not where the Trump family or Trump donors are concerned. And she said, okay, I'm outta here. I mean this is the state of the country right now. This is the state or the lack of, of enforcement where, you know, white collar crime, especially if you are a Trump donor or Trump family member or Trump associate is just legal, it's just legal now. And then they wanna tell you all about, oh my God, the Somalian fraud, blah, blah, blah. The biggest fraudsters are in the White House. There's zero doubt about it, especially on a dollar for dollar basis.
- [40:39]
Krystal Ball
It would be a lot easier to talk about Somalian fraud if you weren't pardoning fraudsters at the very same time
- [40:44]
Saagar Enjeti
and, or protecting them and personally committing fraud at the same time.
- [40:48]
Krystal Ball
Who knows? Yeah, exactly. That's the problem also. Yeah, I just wanna say that you guys know SEC records, sir, can go have look back, period. Right. One day somebody's actually gonna look in this and I hope somebody goes to jail, I really do. Let's go for B3. Put this up here on the screen. The current market reaction for what we are seeing as of right now, what it currently looks like is that some of the S and P, again, remember we talk about this stuff early in the morning. S and P500 futures are pulling back after Monday's rally as oil prices are rebounding. The Iran conflict continues. If I look again just right now, the Brent futures hovering right around $100 per barrel and I think West Texas is roughly around 90. So it's going to be a little bit more manageable and you will likely see a pullback in gas price in midweek and potentially on Sunday. But of course, if there is some, I doubt it. Actual. Well, apparently the way this. I'm not talking about like forever, like
- [41:42]
Saagar Enjeti
for a couple of days.
- [41:42]
Krystal Ball
That's apparently the way that works. Again, not fully an oil genius or anything myself, but I've been trying to do some reading. Let's put B4 up there on the screen. This is from Chevron, and these are the stuff. This is the stuff where people should really freak out. Because when the Chevron CEO says Iran war impact not fully priced in and that traders have scant information, you should think, hey, doesn't he have more information? Cause he runs one of the world's largest energy companies. The CEO cautioned it will take time to restart production that has been dialed back and to repair damaged. Let me just read you directly what he said. There are very real physical manifestations of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz that are working their way around the world through the system that I do not think are fully priced into the futures curve on oil. What he talks about specifically is that the market is trading on scant information and perception. The physical supply of oil is tighter than the futures contracts suggest. We've got a lot of oil and gas now that is not flowing into the market. There really is a difference in terms of physical supply versus prior incidents. So he keeps saying. And every oil analyst that we listen to is like the market futures are totally pricing in some sort of taco, some sort of event that if you look at the physical market, doesn't add up. We talked, yes, I think a few, maybe last week, remember, about California barrels trading for like $140. We talked about how physical crude oil in dubai or in UAE that was coming out was trading at like 160. And that's way out of step with where the current futures prices are. And the reason for that is that's the physical oil that's actually there right now as opposed to what the future bet is on some sort of resumption of flow. But all of the people who are actually in the know don't seem to think that that's going to happen. Yeah, so for example, let's put United Airlines up here on the screen. This is Scott Kirby, the CEO of United. He put out a memo. This was last week. We plan for oil to hit $175 a barrel and staying above 100 next year as the industry faces the worst shock since COVID Obviously that matters for jet fuel. And by the way, when he says 175 barrel, he's not talking about jet fuel, he's talking about actual crude oil, which means jet fuel would be trading much higher than that. I mean 175 a barrel, that's like $6 a gallon. And staying at 100 over the next year. Even 100 is a lot. That's right now. So for the next year we're all signing up for $4 a gallon. I mean, come on, that's really tough. What I was looking at recently, just this morning, is that for every $10 increase in the price of oil for a barrel, it's roughly 0.3 to 0.4 in terms of its increase on inflation. So think, you know, think we've already had orders of magnitude more than 10, so we can be had 5% inflation. Yeah, literally 1970s energy shock level stuff.
- [44:38]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean in terms of, people are saying in terms of the like barrel production loss already, it's bigger than the 70s energy shocks. But you know, Rory Johnston, the analyst we've had on before, he made a good point. He's like, listen, so much of the world now can increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it. But not oil. At least not for long. Hormuz flow still has not resumed. Every day we're shedding more oil from the system. That'll catch up. Can't jawbone 10 to 15 million barrels per day stock draws. So he's making the point here like, yeah, a lot of our economy is fake and based on vibes, like Tesla's valuation as one example. But oil is an actual like thing that exists. It is a commodity, it is a fake physical good that exists. And you can't just like post your way through it, even though that's exactly what Trump is trying to do at this point and having some success. I mean, I think the Chevron CEO was like, you know, they're really not pricing in just how much disruption. I think he is correct, I think Rory is correct in saying essentially the same thing. This is going to hit at some point and it is going to get worse. You can't just true social your way out of the problem that you have
- [45:46]
Krystal Ball
created and think about all the downstream effects. So oil is high, which means demand destruction, pullback, high inflation, high interest rates, stagflation once again, high unemployment rate, high mortgage rates. I could go on for a long time. Pullback in AI, 10% correction in the stock market, 15% correction for the tech industry, mass layoffs across the US economy. I'm just giving you the whole 1970s playbook. And remember the only way they solved it was 19% interest rates, which I mean that scarred a generation forever in terms of how they think about finances and, and I mean banks, like literally the Federal Reserve, it changed the entire outlook for an entire people. Student debt would climb. Debt servicing.
- [46:37]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [46:37]
Krystal Ball
Education. I mean the downstream fertilizer. I haven't even talked about fertilizer. Helium, semiconductors, the global supply chain, potential famine, food crisis in the third world. Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh already having gas shortages because they all have cooking gas. I mean, you know this. And so like over here, our problems are just going to be economic in the rest of the world, like we're talking about life and death.
- [47:01]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [47:02]
Krystal Ball
Being. And if this extends, remember during COVID with Biden we would often talk about like there's a significant portion of the country, I think in the northeast or like way up north where they still use like heating oil or gas. And that spike like destroyed their heating bills and pocketbooks for a long time. So I mean, you know, I don't want to scare people. I'm just, I'm pointing out like why it's so imperative to pull the war back as soon as possible. But if these people are too believed, it doesn't even look like that's even possible. And then we're going to be in some $4 a gallon. Like it seems like the base case is 4 bucks a gallon now for over a year, which is, I mean really just devastating.
- [47:39]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, luckily the economy was really great before this. So people I'm sure have a lot of cushion. They're feeling very confident they'll be able to weather the storm.
- [47:46]
Brandon Weickert
Right?
- [47:46]
Krystal Ball
Very true. All right, let's move on.
- [47:50]
Brian (United Healthcare Employee)
I'm Brian, I work at United Healthcare.
- [47:52]
Vital Proteins Ad Voice
So Brian, why do you care?
- [47:55]
Brian (United Healthcare Employee)
I care because I don't want to leave anybody behind. I oversee one of the biggest resource center in United Healthcare. I see people walked in in my office every day just like my parents. They have no idea about the health care. I feel like they are my uncles, aunties. I treated people like family. I'm Brian and I'm committed to care.
- [48:18]
Sarah Spain
This is Sarah Spain from Good Game with Sarah Spain. Brought to you in part by Vital Farms. Let's talk eggs. Vital Farms pasture raised eggs to be exact. My favorites. The only kind I've got in my fridge. No joke. And here's why. These aren't your average eggs. The hens live on open pastures with fresh air and sunshine all year long. They forage on local grasses and stretch their wings. They're living their best life. That care really shows in the taste. I love mine scrambled with a little butter or whipped up into a fancy frittata. And here's something most people don't know. You can trace your eggs back to the farm they came from. Seriously. Side of the carton you'll find the farm name. Type it in@vitalfarms.com farm and you'll get a 360 degree peak at the pasture. Plus Vital Farms is a certified B corporation, which means they're committed to improving the lives of people, animals and the planet through food. Eggs you could feel good about. So next time you're in the store, look for the black carton in the egg aisle and visit vitalfarms.com to learn more. Vital Good Eggs no shortcuts Ever feel
- [49:19]
IKEA Bedroom Storage Ad Voice
like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space with IKEA Bedroom Storage solutions Dressers, wardrobes, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can hold onto it all your vintage band tees keep em those limited edition sneakers they stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walk in closet? The PAX wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails and compartments so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough of drawers. The storklinta six drawer dresser is perfect for denim sweaters and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, trofast storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and cleanup fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom storage today at Ikea US
- [50:19]
Krystal Ball
Joining us now is Brandon Weickert, great friend of the show and an excellent military analyst. Good to see you, sir.
- [50:24]
Brandon Weickert
Thanks for having me as always.
- [50:25]
Krystal Ball
All right, Brandon, let's jump right into it. All of us have been on ground troop deployment. Watch. Let's go and put this one up here on the screen. New York Times saying that the Pentagon is now weighing the deployment of airborne troops for the Iran war. They focus specifically on the 82nd Airborne whose training exercise had previously been canceled. Maybe you could break down for us some of the military speak here. It's currently it'd be about a brigade of 3,000 soldiers capable of deploying anywhere in the world for 18 hours. What would that type of operation look like? What should we look for? Are there movements that are already on the way. What's going on?
- [51:03]
Brandon Weickert
Well, clearly this is, if you contextualize this with the Marine, the Marine Expeditionary Units, I believe two are being deployed or have been deployed to the region. This, to me, looks like the administration's thinking is, well, we're going to have a small light and fast force that will break into one of the targets along the coastline and they will basically overrun whatever defenses are there, capture the land, and then be able to sort of establish a foothold there, and then they can flow in heavier forces. The forces. I don't think this would be a, I might be wrong about this, but I don't believe this is a prelude to invasion of the heart of Iran. I think this is an attempt to establish what's known as sea control. You know, basically they're gonna, they're gonna take one of these islands along the coast and then they think they'll be able to capture it and then build up missile presence there. And they'll be able to basically interdict any kind of Iranian attempts to intervene with the natural flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or into the Strait of Hormuz. And I just got to tell you, Saga, this, this whole thing is, is kooky talk. This is crazy town level stuff because 82nd Airborne is wonderful and I've, I've talked to those guys before, but this is not going to work the way they think it is. Nor will it work for the Marines, 2500 or 5000, whatever number they're throwing around now. It's sort of been changing off and on. This is not gonna work. You need to, you know, the Clausewitzian model, you need to mass a lot of force to just to take one of those islands. And oh, by the way, our Marines, our 82nd Airborne guys, as the Russians learned in the first few days of their war in Ukraine, they're not gonna be facing. It's not gonna be man on man, it's not even gonna be tank on man. It's gonna be man arrives on island, finds it kind of deserted. It's quiet. Oh, it's kind of nice. But, oh, guess what? There's 88,000 shahed drones coming your way. Missiles and then the hypersonics. This is not going to end well. This is going to be Gallipoli from World War I and it will end in us retreating, in humiliation. And I think that's when we start talking about nuclear weapons.
- [53:19]
Saagar Enjeti
Do you think there's a possibility? What you said is horrifying and terrifying. And I Want to acknowledge that. Do you think it's a possibility? There's a possibility. We're being sort of psyoped on this carg island idea. I'm just hearing too many leaks about it, too much in the press about it. It seems like we're signaling too hard that that's what we're intending to do there.
- [53:38]
Brandon Weickert
Yeah. And actually there was a YouTube account, I think it was called History Legends, which is this Ukrainian military guy, and he had a very interesting video a couple days ago breaking down the three possible locations. The one he thinks, and this is what I was thinking because it was one of our first targets we blew up in the air war is this naval base the Iranians have. It's sort of in the Gulf of Oman or off that coastline. So it's technically closer to where our navy is willing to go. And let's just think about this, Pollyanna. Pete Hegseth keeps telling us we're winning this thing so bigly it hurts. Well, we can't even get the navy within, you know, a thousand kilometers of the Strait of Hormuz, but somehow we're going to land Marines inside? I don't think so. And so there is a possibility or probability that the real target is something like. I think it's the Conor Ad Naval base, which is along that coastline of Oman. But. And that's near Baluchistan. And the argument is the CIA has been implanted into Baluchistan, which is a breakaway area of Iran, and, and where we have friendlies on the ground. And the friendlies will come in from the back door of the, of the naval base in Iran, and then we'll come in through the front door. It'll be happy, you know, happy times are here again. I don't think, again, this is how it's going to work out. And even if we did take that territory, by the way, it's not really near where we need to be. I mean, the Strait of Hormuz is the problem, not the Gulf of Oman, not yet. So, you know, this is all for show. This is, again, this is irresponsible and crazy talk from the administration, which we've become accustomed to. Now on this issue.
- [55:09]
Krystal Ball
Let's put C2 up there on the screen. The Israelis compiling some of the plans that we see right now. 2,500 marines, 2,000 sailors, three amphibious ships, 3,000 paratroopers. I want to throw another one at you, which we've talked a little bit about before. Let's say Trump needs a spectacular off ramp. What about the Nuclear mission. The Israelis just bombed the nuclear facility. Airborne troops can drop, right in. Some theory that I have seen now currently is you send airborne in, then you send in the one wave of Marines and you have another wave of marines that could come in. Everybody's recycling in and out of the country. Obviously though, that would be deep inside. How would something like that play out? Would it give the President the off ramp that he wants?
- [55:51]
Brandon Weickert
I don't think any of this is an off ramp. I don't. This is literally escalation. Now, maybe in Trump's mind, you know,
- [55:57]
Saagar Enjeti
this is escalate to de escalate, right, Brandon?
- [56:00]
Brandon Weickert
That's right.
- [56:00]
Saagar Enjeti
Scott Bessant told me that's what.
- [56:02]
Brandon Weickert
Scott Bess, yes, the military genius known as Scott Besson. You know, you know, maybe in Trump's mind that's how it works. But you know, remember, the Russians have had a escalate to de escalate doctrine for 15, 10 years now. And it hasn't worked for them. I mean, they're still in Ukraine. So, you know, they're, they're kind of winning in Ukraine. But the point is, it hasn't worked anywhere. It's tried. When you escalate and you're up against a rival like the Persians or the Iranians, they escalate along with you. In fact, they've demonstrated, I think I said this before, they demonstrated a remarkable capacity. So far, we go up one escalation run there they are waiting for us. They just go right with us. These are, this is a very wily group, group of adversaries we're up against. We've completely misread and underestimated them. So perhaps that's what the President is envisioning. It's not gonna go that way. And by the way, how is all those free flowing forces going to put up with contested airspace where air defense systems are still active? They've already hit an F35, they've already targeted, you know, these KC135s. So how are we going to do this without losing a bunch of guys needlessly? And of course, the political ramifications, you know, Trump is obsessed with having the markets look good. So he has good, good polling or whatever. I don't know how losing a bunch of troops in the heart of Iran to try to take over some nuclear facility or whatever, I mean, this just sounds really, this sounds like something from a Tom Clancy novel and not something from like a real war.
- [57:31]
Krystal Ball
But it might happen. The thing is, like, these are all actually might happen, like for real.
- [57:35]
Brandon Weickert
That one would be very difficult though, because he's going to have to penetrate deep hold. I mean, he might try it, but that thing could really go pear shaped fast.
- [57:43]
Krystal Ball
Wow.
- [57:44]
Saagar Enjeti
So one of our aircraft carriers in the region had to limp back to shore after an alleged laundry fire. What impact does that have on our abilities in the region? You know, I believe there's just one air, just one aircraft carrier in the area now. You know, how much does that matter?
- [58:04]
Brandon Weickert
Well, I believe the second aircraft is coming. I guess the third is the, was it the George H.W. bush left Virginia? So it's en route ultimately. Look, I've been a critic of the aircraft carrier for over a decade. I think it is, it is an obsolete weapon. I think that it is a sitting duck. As we're seeing these missiles are targeting. Whether they hit the Gerald R. Ford or not is the question. I know that the Houthis came very close to hitting a couple of those carriers a year or two ago and that's why we abandoned the fight with the Houthis. The Ford, they're claiming it was a laundry fire. I am not convinced. I personally have no evidence of this. This is speculation, but I do think that was probably, probably clipped by one of those Iranian ASBMs. That's an anti ship ballistic missile. And you know, they probably are retreating back to Virginia now to get repair and rest. The problem is we have one shipyard in the entire United States that can handle the kind of overhaul necessary for these carriers. It's backlogged. They're saying it'll be 14 months before the Ford is, is back in action. I would anticipate 24 to 28 months. You have to double that almost because, because the shipyards are so sclerotic here and they're already at, you know, at capacity. So this is a big problem. This is a loss of capabilities. It's a tool out of our toolbox. And we only have, I think right now, three operational out of 11 carriers. So, you know, this is, this is a nightmare scenario at the strategic level again, because as this is happening in the Middle east, the Chinese are not just going to leave it alone. You're seeing Russia and Ukraine again starting at it. So our, you know, our rivals are constantly figuring out how to, to use this to their advantage. And Uncle Sam is declining significantly, unfortunately.
- [59:55]
Krystal Ball
Brandon, let's talk about the combat effectiveness of the Iranian missiles now so far, far. So we, day after day, every time I wake up, I see a new hit inside of Israel that I didn't see two weeks ago. We saw Dimona, the nuclear facility area got hit. We saw, what was it? Arad, I think that's the name. Where? Southern Israel. Mass casualty this morning, Tel Aviv. Rubble everywhere. It looks like the blitz in the middle of London. This seems like a daily occurrence now. What does that tell us?
- [60:23]
Brandon Weickert
Well, it tells us that I just saw before I logged on. Daily Mail has an op ed they're saying the Iranians only have a thousand missiles left.
- [60:30]
Krystal Ball
Stuff.
- [60:30]
Brandon Weickert
And I'm reminded of, you know, the articles coming out of Ukraine in the beginning when, you know, the Russians are two weeks away from running out of missiles. They're using laundry machine. You know, this is, this is not, this is not realistic. I think a safer assessment is that the Iranians have probably an additional 18 to 24 months left of their missile stockpiles. We're not even talking about the drones. The drones are the real problem. The drones are actually what they're threatening to hit ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz with. They're not threatening to hit them with missiles necessarily. It's the drones, it's the Shaheds. So we're not even addressing the more than 88,000 drones that they have in their arsenal which haven't even been close to used. So in my opinion, these missile strikes are clearly demonstrating escalation dominance on the part of the Iranians. They clearly have a robust arsenal. Remember up until a week ago, they're using missiles that were 10 and 15 years old. These were the missiles from, from 10 years ago. Now they've started upgrading and they've switched munitions to the more advanced stuff and they're talking about the Koramshah and some of these other very sophisticated, very lethal missiles. So if you're sitting around listening to the White House and the Pentagon telling you, oh, this war is coming to a close soon, I think the Iranians unfortunately have another, have another message for you which is we've got plenty and we're going to keep coming up the escalation ladder with you. Yeah.
- [61:52]
Saagar Enjeti
So strait of hormones obviously has become a central question in this war, central objective in this war. Even though if we just hadn't started the war, everything would have been fine there. But in any case that, you know, they've abandoned it.
- [62:03]
Brandon Weickert
Well, it's not a war, it's a non war war.
- [62:05]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. It's an excursion or whatever the term of art is. Now in any case, you know, we've abandoned, and there was a Washington Post report about this, we've abandoned the idea of, you know, completely destroying their ability to produce a nuclear weapon. We've abandoned the idea of regime change. So now we're just trying to basically, like, undo some of the damage that was done. Trump, we played this earlier in the show, was like, maybe me and the Ayatollah are gonna control the Strait of Hormuz together. Okay, what would it actually take, though, to, you know, forcibly take control of the Strait of Hormuz and make it safe enough that shifts feel they can navigate that without getting, you know, clipped by a drone or whatever?
- [62:42]
Brandon Weickert
It's gonna require a force substantially larger than what we've deployed, and it's going to take a political willingness, and I'm not advocating for this at all, a political willingness to see very large numbers of casualties and, oh, by the way, the loss of some of these very expensive platforms, not just carriers, but destroyers as well. Remember, there was a Business Insider interview with a captain of a destroyer during the Houthi fight where he said that never in his career and not since World War II, the Pacific theater, had the U.S. navy encountered an enemy as serious as I'm paraphrasing, as the Houthis were. And, of course, we abandoned that fight. Remember, that was the big signal gate. That was part of that whole discussion with Jeffrey Goldberg. They abandoned that fight because it was too much. And now we're talking about going up against, you know, sort of the mother ship of terrorism in the region, and they're like a missile city, and we're going to somehow, you know, we're going to. With. With two carriers and a handful of destroyers that won't get anywhere near under current conditions. And the Strait of Hormuz, suddenly they're going to punch through land Marines, take out all. I mean, this is. This is the stuff of science fiction fantasy.
- [63:50]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [63:50]
Brandon Weickert
So it's. Yeah.
- [63:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, I would respectfully suggest that Israel is the mothership of terrorism in the region.
- [63:55]
Brandon Weickert
Well, sure, Yeah, I get your point.
- [63:57]
Saagar Enjeti
I know what you're. I know what you're saying.
- [63:59]
Krystal Ball
See, the. Brandon, this is. The difficulty of this, is that every day we hear 95% capacity has been wiped out. 95%. And the Israelis, I think, twice now have claimed that 300 missiles have been destroyed. And it's like. Well, I don't know if that's even.
- [64:14]
Brandon Weickert
The math, isn't mathing, as they say.
- [64:15]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it doesn't really work. But the thing is, is that with their drone production, with their oil enrichment, right now, the Iranians are in a better position, much more than they expected. Right. Initially. At this point, though, how can the United States, and, you know, you're political as well, what possible outcome could we see that actually leads to this ending from Donald Trump? I think it would take a sea change of mindset to say, okay, done, let's sign a fake deal, declare victory, and get out. But I just don't see it. And I wonder.
- [64:51]
Brandon Weickert
That's the Trump of the first. First year or two of the presidency in 2016. That's not the Trump of COVID That's not the Trump of. Of. Now we're getting the Trump of COVID Okay. This was. He was committed to lockdowns. He was committed to all that. So this is the worst patterns of Trump coming out, in my opinion. You know, here and now, there's nukes involved, so there's no off ramp. You know, he's. Whenever he says something about, oh, yeah, I've got. We're talking to people, I think he's talking to himself. I think he's talking to Netanyahu. And, you know, I think that they are conspiring to try to keep the markets calm long enough for them to get those Marines in place, and then they're going to do Gallipoli 2.0, and it's going to end in disaster. This whole thing's ending in disaster. So there is no off ramp. You're going to get a bunch of our people killed. And then that's probably going to lead, in my opinion, to Israel then saying, oh, we got to drop a nuke now. Because Netanyahu, Netanyahu is deeply committed, and his people, the Likud Party, they're deeply committed to this course of action. Utter annihilation of Iran, no matter what. So, you know, this is where it's headed, I think, in the coming weeks.
- [65:59]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, Brandon, I think an off ramp requires Trump's removal from office at this point. Because if you're the Iranians, why would you ever deal with this? Why would you ever negotiate?
- [66:07]
Brandon Weickert
Well, they've already said that.
- [66:08]
Saagar Enjeti
Administration. Yeah, they have already said that, and I believe them because multiple times, and not just with regard to the buildup to the 12 day war, but in other instances as well, we've used diplomacy as a ruse. They see what's going on here with Trump just now inventing fake diplomacy and once again trying to use it as a ruse for whatever his next escalatory plan is. So you have that, and then you also look at this man who is clearly a menace to the country and the world at this point. So, I mean, is there an off ramp as long as Donald Trump remains President of the United States, I would
- [66:40]
Brandon Weickert
have thought the institutions would have snapped back into place and unfortunately not even people like General Kaine ultimately stood up to him and said, this is not gonna work. Now the Navy, it's interesting, the Navy, you know, he's been telling them to go through the straits and the emeralds keep saying we're not doing it. So that's interesting that that's sort of not happened yet, thank God. But in terms of 25th Amendment, it requires a vice president who's willing to stand up to Trump. And I don't think Mr. Vance, for a variety of reasons is willing to do that. He was down in Austin recently with Lonsdale and Palantir guys. And I think the fact of the matter is, you know, that there's not going to be any movement toward actually reasserting some kind of constitutional control here because you had Wassam and some of these top Vance advisors are leaving en masse and they're going to be putting in, I was told to expect in the coming weeks multiple people close to Vance who were foreign policy, non interventionists are going to be leaving for the private sector. So I don't think there's any off ramp there either. I think that when November hits, the likelihood is Democrats win and Massie and Khanna do a impeachment, you know, scheme together. That's gonna be the hope, I think, for the left. But I don't think the Republicans are gonna let it happen either. The Republicans are gonna be rallying to their guy who's clearly way off on this one and gonna get a lot of people, I mean he's, Trump is gonna get a lot of people killed and he's gonna get a lot of people at home hurt with this economic stuff. This is a disaster. Yeah.
- [68:16]
Saagar Enjeti
Wow.
- [68:16]
Krystal Ball
Well, Brandon, last thing. Why are you so confident about the use of nuclear weapon? You're one of the only people I know who is like, it's going to, we're not going to happen. But it's what I'm at like 5%. You're like 50. Why are you so confident?
- [68:28]
Brandon Weickert
Well, because I think that once the land attack, it's so bad in Israel right now and basically Netanyahu is completely locked in. This is, this is all or nothing for Netanyahu. You know, he's, it's 1945 Berlin. He's trying to move troops around on that only, only exists on a map. So like this guy's not, he's not operating in the same reality that we are and so I think what happens is the heat. They're banking on one last Hail Mary being the US Marine landings, that's not going to work under current conditions. At that point, Trump's going to probably get cold feet and try to figure out a way to get out of this because he's going to realize this thing's a disaster. And then at that point, Netanyahu is going to say, nope, I'm going, this is it. The Americans are getting cold feet. They can't do it. I got to do it. I'm going to. The only thing I've got are nukes. And when all you have is a hammer, everything's a nail. And that's why I think this is. And I don't see any off ramp. I just don't. Even if Trump were to taco out today, it's like the Israelis don't have to and the Iranians don't have to. Like, you have to have, you know, engagement from the other two parties. And so far, the Iranians are very confident that they've got what they need. And the Israelis are very, very worried. And so they're going to keep doubling down to try to get out of this mess they've created. So that's where we are. And Trump's sort of a passive observer in this whole thing, which is really shocking to see an American president in that position.
- [69:48]
Saagar Enjeti
Extraordinary stuff. Brandon, it's always great to speak with you. We really appreciate it.
- [69:52]
Krystal Ball
Good to see you, man.
- [69:53]
Brandon Weickert
Thank you.
- [70:09]
Danielle Robay
Hi, this is Danielle Robay, the host of Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club, a podcast by hello Sunshine and I Heart podcasts. I'm partnering with Simple Mills and I've just found my new go to reading snack, Simple Mills almond flour crackers. Think of this as a quick book style review because these crackers deserve it. The premise? A snack that feels light, not heavy. Made with almond flour, sunflower seeds and flaxseeds. Nutrient dense ingredients your body can use. Not empty carbs. And the taste, Crunchy, classic flavors that leave you feeling energized. For a good plot twist, try Popums. Cheesy, airy, poppable crackers packed with veggies. Final verdict. These are a shelf staple. Find simple meals at your grocery store.
- [70:55]
Dr. Guy Winch
For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning signs. In season three of the Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare.
- [71:26]
Jay Shetty
This is Jay Shetty from On Purpose with Jay Shetty. Push it, Bend it, Flex it. Introducing the latest rule bending innovation from Brooks Running the new Glycerin Flex. Feel the freedom with a cushioned shoe made to move with you so that you can bend or flex the rules. Brooks new strategically segmented midsole works as an extension of your body, putting you in control of the run like never before. Want to feel the best parts of your run? Flex the rules in the new glycerin flex works. Let's run there. Shop now at Brooksrunning. Com.
- [71:59]
Sarah Spain
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [72:02]
Saagar Enjeti
Guaranteed human.