Saagar Enjeti (43:52)
I don't even know. Let's go to the next one. Let's put this up here on the screen. Big indication that something big is happening is that at least three congressional Republicans, including the chair of the House and the Senate Armed Services Committees are quote, hinting strongly that a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially be underway soon. All of them have voiced frustration with the lack of information that has been shared from the Pentagon. One of them also, Nancy Mace, Senate Armed Services Committee, of course is the committee responsible for appropriating funds for the Pentagon. They are due many of the leaks that we've gotten, for example, about the billions in damage, how much munitions, et cetera, has been fired. That comes from legal updates that the Pentagon must make to the Senate Armed Services Committee and especially why. Remember that they're gonna request some 200 billion in the future. This is the way that it's all going to play out. Now why do we need to do a ground invasion? Why does something need to change? It's very simple. Flagged on the show from day one, Interceptors. The math doesn't. Math. Let's put this up here on the screen. So this is from the Royal United Services Institute. It is one of the oldest, I believe it might be the oldest defense think tank in the world. It's a UK based think tank and very similar, let's say here to the United States, the csis, the what is it center for Strategic Institute studies something like that. But these are very respected defense think tank, usually very tied into the military industrial complex and almost always actually have a pro war bias. However, they're very good at what they do. They do a lot of analysis around interceptors math, they read budget proposals, they look at open source and they compile all the data together. So I want to be clear here, they don't have the exact data, but they have a very good track record. Now here is what they warn. Let's put my tweet please up here on the screen. So. So the Royal United Service Institute now estimates Israel is days away from running out of Arrow interceptors and that the United States has already burned about 40% of the available Thaad stockpile in the Iran war and only has about three weeks left. So let me linger here a little bit on all of the types of munitions, the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 munitions. These are the interceptors that come up hit the Iranian missiles. By the way, they haven't been working that well. Do you notice Crystal, the date on the Projected depletion date? March 27, 2026. The current date is March 26. Now they could be wrong. They could be wrong. This was based on the projections of the first 16 days of the conflict. And you know, one reason they might be wrong is they had to stop firing them. So they might extend the Runway a little bit, but that's not good. The second second allied Thaad interceptors partner operated uae, Jordan, right, et cetera. Other countries which have access. Projected run date is April 3, 2026. Israel. They have the Blue Sparrow air launched ballistic missile. Projected runout date April 5, 2026. David Sling Defensive April 6, 2026 Israel Rampage Supersonic missile April 9, 2026 US okay, April 12, April 2026 THAAD Israel operated April 11 and then THAAD US operated April 17, 2026. Only a couple of weeks. And then if you actually look at the percent of the total stockpile, arrow 3 in the first 16 days was already 80% depletion. US was at 40. And so just imagine at 40 and we'd already burned 25% of the existing stockpile in the 12 day war and we're already at 40 in the first 16 days. So the math is almost certainly correct. If you just look at how things worked in the 12 Day War to today. This means that the current way that things are going is impossible. We cannot keep this happening because all critical infrastructure, US bases, everything is now free. It's gonna be free game if things just Continue to operate as they do. Cuz we have been unable to take out all the drones or all the ballistic missile programs as we warned, you could take out 95% but even that 5%, if the interceptors are low, they can do a shit ton of damage. So here we are. Now we have to do something to change the strategic calculus because the status quo is not going to work. So you could either have diplomacy or you would have to have an invasion to go in and to secure and to change the status quo. And that is the problem. Also don't just take my word for it. Put B4 up there on the screen. Another piece of analysis, this is from the Jerusalem Post, who obviously would know Operation Epic Fury has drained one third of the bad supply. So their estimate's even higher or a little bit lower. And replenishment could take eight years. While the 90% hit rate is elite. Every launch against Iran depletes the readiness needed for potential conflict with China. And remember, we already stripped a decent amount out of South Korea of a lot of these interceptors and they take years to rebuild literally only for some Patriot. I think it's just like one facility, et cetera. The biggest problem now is okay, so ground troops to do what? Well as they said, for this final blow to take control of the Straits of Hormuz, I think that the nuclear facility option is the one that makes the most sense. And it's because for every one of these wartime leaders to change things, they need to do something big and especially trump spectacular and you can declare victory. So taking control of the Strait is basically a continuation of the war. Now I could see it as in I'll take control of the straight away from Iran, which means that they'll have to break cause they'll have no more money and that's their only real point of leverage. But that isn't something that's actually gonna wind up the war. The only way that I see that he could truly try to declare victory and say this is all over is to go in and actually take out their entire nuclear, their entire nuclear stockpile in terms of the material that could be enriched at some of their facilities, but that is fraught with risk. In the middle of mountains, they're going to turn it into a death trap. A lot of it is buried under rubble because we did that. And so it's not even that easy to go and get. There's no good options here. Like in terms of ground options, taking islands, you're sitting ducks for drones, for missiles. They want us to Invade. They've even said that they're like, we've been preparing for this and we want you to come and to try and take our territory. We're happy to try and to fight you. A lot of them will die, but it will actually probably mobilize their population more than ever. And of course, they want the American populace to turn against casualties. So for them, it might even be a good thing. Now, on the islands and the straits and all that stuff, the military logic would not necessarily be one that would truly break, you know, the negotiation power. I really think that the nuclear option is the only one or is the only one where he could potentially try and sell it as the end. Now, I don't even think it would be. I don't even think it would be the end. I think it would probably get us deeper into it. But in his mind, true. A true surrender is not on the table. You have to do something. That's all I can see them trying to do right now. Of course, it's just me. I could be wrong.