Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Episode: March 30, 2026 – "Oil Crisis Expands, Israel Blocks Palm Sunday, Scientists Go Missing, Larry Wilkerson On Iran War"

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the “rapidly escalating economic polycrisis” facing the world, focusing on four major stories:

1. The global oil crisis and its economic, AI, and geopolitical fallout
2. Israel’s restriction of Christian access to holy sites on Palm Sunday amidst rising sectarian tensions
3. A mysterious wave of missing and dead US scientists during wartime, and possible links to both foreign intelligence and UFO conspiracies
4. An extended interview with retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson about the US-Iran war, the plausibility of regime change, risks of nuclear escalation, and historical parallels with Vietnam.

The hosts maintain their trademark urgent and skeptical tone, drawing on expert guests and sharp exchanges to dissect complex crises impacting the US, Middle East, and globe.

1. The Oil Crisis: Mad Max & Polycrisis (01:39 – 15:08)

The Situation

• Guest: Saurabh Amari, editor of Unherd
• Hosts: Krystal Ball, Saagar Enjeti

Key Topics:

• Global oil prices: WTI at ~$101/barrel, Brent at ~$115—and could reach $200.
• "This is the biggest oil supply shock in history," says host (01:50), comparing it to the 1970s but arguing today’s situation is far structurally worse.
• The crisis is attributed to severe damage to oil infrastructure following Iranian and Israeli strikes.
• Middle East fields, particularly in Iraq and GCC states, are crippled; restoring outputs will take years.

Notable Insight – Structural Damage, Not Just Politics:

“In the 1970s…it was a matter of a political decision by the OPEC, the Arab OPEC members, to shut off or turn on the tap…In this case…there is damage to the entire ecosystem that makes possible the flow of oil…That’s all going to take a long time to get back online. And during that time, you’re going to see price spikes…ramifications are huge and legitimately like Mad Max level, terrifying.”
— Saurabh Amari (02:46–04:45)

Global Economic Fallout

• AI sector is uniquely imperiled: data centers and chipmakers are dependent on cheap oil and gas from the Gulf.
• “The whole AI revolution…is dependent on cheap energy. These AI companies are basically the backbone of the US stock market.”
  — Host (06:35)
• Middle East investors (Saudi, Qatar, UAE) are crucial to US AI tech investments; if oil revenue dries up, so do those funds.
• Semiconductor manufacturing in Korea/Taiwan is threatened due to disruptions in oil/LNG/chemical imports (07:40).

US Exceptionalism, Globalization, & Trump’s Miscalculation

• “Trump had said…‘I’m not worried about the oil because it’s really the Asian countries that are most dependent on Persian Gulf oil’…It reveals such profound ignorance of what a fungible commodity like oil is.”
  — Amari (09:12)
• US 'energy dominance’ can't shield from global price spikes; supply shocks are globalized.

Quote:

“That attitude of…‘it’s just going to be China’s or India’s problem if oil stops flowing’ is stupid and it’s arrogant, and I think we’re all going to pay the consequences for it.”
— Saurabh Amari (10:43)

Ripple Effects in Asia

• Rationing: South Korea (shorter showers), Thailand (caps on air conditioner use), India (disappearing butter chicken/dosa due to cooking gas rationing), Sri Lanka (work week reduction). (11:23–13:00)
• Asian supply shock hitting harder, but full global impacts imminent within weeks.

2. Israel Blocks Palm Sunday & Religious/Ethnic Tensions (23:47 – 36:56)

Story:

• Israeli police blocked Cardinal Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, from Palm Sunday services at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre—an unprecedented and symbolic denial.

Why It Matters

• First time in centuries the Latin Patriarch was refused access during Holy Week.
• Represents a rise in “sectarian chauvinism” in Jerusalem—Christian/Armenian businesses harassed, attempts to squeeze out minorities, spitting on Christian evangelizers; context of recent Catholic targets in Gaza/West Bank. (24:42–27:44)

Quote:

“It’s been centuries since the Latin Patriarch…has been unable to access the Church of the Holy Sepulcher…If this were a single incident…okay, it is what it is…but…it comes in this larger context of an Israeli society where this kind of sectarian chauvinism…has now become increasingly prevalent.”
— Saurabh Amari (24:42)

Broader Implications

• Raises alarms about ethno-supremacist ideology—if any group is targeted, all are endangered.
• Encourages broader Christian and right-of-center empathy for Palestinian civilians, not just for co-religionists.

Quote:

“The challenge is to see the other who is different from me also as belonging to God ultimately…being made in the image of God.”
— Saurabh Amari (28:33)

Lebanon Invasion and Ethnic Cleansing Discourse

• Israel expands invasion into southern Lebanon, potentially displacing 1 million people.
• Casual reference to potential ethnic cleansing in Israeli media; hosts compare the magnitude (land area) to Russian actions in Ukraine.

Quote:

"Of all people, the Jewish people should be uncomfortable with population transfers…if there's one of the lessons of the Jewish 20th century is not to move populations around in this way and just to openly talk about it." — Saurabh Amari (31:55)

Dangerous Religious Dynamics

• Netanyahu reports Iranian missile fragments near Christian, Jewish, and Islamic holy sites; tension over whether religious sites could be targeted or leveraged for further escalation/false flag operations.
• "This is a moment of extreme danger for the world... You layer on top of that the deep theological issues... it's just so irresponsible for the Trump administration to get into this, a war that basically every other predecessor had resisted."
  — Saurabh Amari (36:56)

3. Missing Scientists & Drone Intrusions: Espionage or UFOs? (41:22 – 50:06)

Story:

• Around five US scientists (NASA, Air Force research, etc.) are missing under mysterious circumstances; incidents include a retired general leaving his home on foot, vanishing without trace, and a NASA scientist who disappeared while hiking in a group.
• Simultaneously, multiple “waves” of unauthorized drones appeared over Barksdale Air Force Base (LA), a key site for US nuclear command.

Possible Explanations

• Links speculated to UAP (UFO) investigations, foreign espionage (Russia, China), or pure coincidence.
• Extensive search efforts (dogs, helicopters, volunteers) have found nothing.
• Former FBI Assistant Director Swecker: cases should be investigated in connection; not "just kookery." (45:57)

Hosts’ Colorful Commentary:

"As a UFO person… drone swarms over nuclear bases is like UFO—it goes back for decades."
— Co-host (43:00)

Literary Allusions

• Hosts reference the novel "Three Body Problem" (and Netflix adaptation), drawing parallels between fiction and the unsettling pattern of scientist disappearances.

4. Interview: Col. Lawrence Wilkerson – The US-Iran War, Nuclear Fears, and Vietnam Parallels (53:12 – 65:32)

Guest: Lawrence Wilkerson, retired Army colonel, Colin Powell’s former chief of staff, Vietnam veteran, Iraq war critic.

On Trump’s Iran War Strategy

• Trump boasts to the Financial Times about seizing Iranian oil ("my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran"), and claims Iran "has no real defense." (53:36)
• Wilkerson dismisses this as confusing “objectives” (bombing lots of targets) with actual mission success.

Quote:

"You can drop all the bombs in the world... if they aren't leading you to accomplishing your mission, it's nonsense. And that's what's happening here, partly because no one has articulated the mission."
— Wilkerson (54:30)

Regime Change Fantasies & Reality

• US military rumored/planning special ops missions to seize uranium from Iran ("fantastical" plan).
• Wilkerson skeptical of any chance of success ("less than 50%"), and warns Iran likely has advanced nuclear capabilities in hardened underground sites.

Economic and Strategic Risks

• Iran’s demonstrated missile reach and accuracy threaten devastation across the Gulf (Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain).
• If Iran enacts its "second target list," the global economy could tank into depression, regardless of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nuclear War Likelihood

• Wilkerson is most concerned about Israel using nuclear weapons, then possibly Iran. He believes even Trump would be unlikely to order nuclear use. (61:21)

Quote:

"I would put the order of probability in that order. Israel first, Iran possibly second... I don't even think Donald Trump would resort to nuclear weapons." — Wilkerson (61:21)

Historical Parallels: Vietnam

• Strong comparison to the Vietnam War: entering with “good intentions,” ignoring known limits, then compounding the error for domestic politics.
• “The major parallel I see is we went in, I think, with reasonably good intentions, and we ruined it all. And we didn’t recognize it for 59,000 plus casualties later… This is a similar situation and with a much different administration, which I don’t think even knows how to make national security decisions.”
  — Wilkerson (64:27)

Wilkerson’s Solution

• Suggests the US should “declare victory and quit” and end support for Netanyahu, but warns that an abandoned, desperate Israel might use nuclear weapons against Iran.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Oil/Trump’s Responsibility:
  "It's all a choice. It was a war of choice. It was Donald Trump and his coterie deciding to do this, not something that was imposed on the United States or the world..."
  — Saurabh Amari (04:45)

• On Religious Conflict:
  "The challenge is to see the other who is different from me also as belonging to God ultimately..."
  — Saurabh Amari (28:33)

• On Drone Swarms/Missing Scientists:
  "Everybody has an interest in killing scientists, right? Everybody has an interest in killing scientists."
  — Co-host (49:18)

• On War/Mission Creep:
  "You can bomb the hell out of the world and accomplish your objectives. So many bombs, so many targets, so many airplanes, and not be accomplishing your mission."
  — Wilkerson (54:30)

• On the Current State of the Republican Party:
  "I can’t forgive the Republican Party ever again… The fact that it could not prevent a president coming to power who would be this irresponsible needs to go away for a long time and meditate." — Saurabh Amari (36:56)

Key Timestamps

• Oil Crisis Analysis (w/ Saurabh Amari): 01:39–15:08
• Israel/Religious Access Blocked: 23:47–36:56
• Missing Scientists & Drone Swarms: 41:22–50:06
• Interview: Larry Wilkerson on Iran War: 53:12–65:32

Summary Takeaway

This urgent and wide-ranging episode captures a world at the edge: destabilized by energy wars, facing resurgent ethno-religious supremacism, haunted by unexplained disappearances, and governed (in the U.S.) by a feckless and dangerous executive. Both expert guests and hosts drive home the sense of foreboding and complex interconnections—economic, political, spiritual—defining the global moment.