← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/30/26: Oil Crisis Expands, Israel Blocks Palm Sunday, Scientists Go Missing, Larry Wilkerson On Iran War
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Erin Welsh
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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Alright, son, time to put out this campfire.
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Dad, we learned about this in school.
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Oh, did you now? Okay, what's first?
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Smokey Bear said to first drown it
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with a bucket of water, then stir it with a shovel.
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Wow, you sound just like him.
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Where can I learn all this?
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Wilmer Valderrama
Hey, I'm Wilmer Valderrama and this is Freddie Rodriguez. And we're back. Dos Amigos, Season two, baby. Last time we went deep on our careers, our lives, our art and everything in between. Our big breaks, our auditions, the near misses, the epiphanies, the moments that changed our lives forever. This season we're deepening our relationships, creating collaborations. And the door always stays open for a third amigo to pull up a chair. Listen to those Amig migos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Then she says, have you seen a photo of my son? And I'm like, who is this person?
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Host (Boys and Girls podcast)
Welcome to the boys and girls podcast. Arranged marriage is basically a reality show and you're auditioning for your soulmate. And who's judging? Only your entire family. I sacrificed myself to this ancient tradition hoping to find love the right way. And instead I found chaos, copy comedy and a lot of cringe. Listen to boys and Girls on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:39]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Joining us now to talk about the rapidly escalating economic poly crisis, we have Saurabh Amari, who is the editor of Unherd. Great to see you, Saurabh.
- [01:48]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Good to see you man.
- [01:49]
Saurabh Amari
Thank you. Thanks for having me.
- [01:50]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yeah, of course. So let's start with the picture with regards to oil, which is not looking great. We can put C4 up on the screen here. So as of this morning, right now in the markets I think WTI is at about $101. Brent is at what saga? Like 115 somewhere around there. But we have this Bloomberg analysis where a lot of analysts are saying this is going to get a lot worse, that reality has not completely sunk in. So what they say is the biggest oil supply shock in history has reached the one month mark. Prices have surged, growth forecasts are being cut worldwide. Shortages are emerging across Asia, Thailand to Pakistan. But the Energy industry is warning the crisis is only beginning and they float the possibility of oil going to $200 a barrel. So are you in agreement with this analysis that we have not even grappled yet with the reality of how bad things are currently, let alone how bad things are going to get?
- [02:47]
Saurabh Amari
Yeah, I tend to agree with the more gloomy analysts out there. The reason being that what's not taken into account is the difference between this Crisis and the 1970s oil crisis that followed the Yom Kippur War. In that case, it was a matter of a political decision by the opec, the Arab OPEC members, to shut off or turn on the tap. Right? That's all that there was involved. And once they decided politically to turn the tap back on, oil flowed again. In this case, the reason why this could be much more severe than the 1970s poly crises that are related to oil is the fact that even if the political decision were there, if the political will were there to turn the tap back on, there is damage to the entire ecosystem that makes possible the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz and into the global markets. You have severe damage to oil facilities in obviously the GCC states to varying degrees. Some Iranian strikes have hit those in response to, I should say to Israeli attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure. You have shut in fields in Iraq where a country that any given day you have like 4.3 million barrels, is now down to like 1.6 million barrels. And after a while, when fields are shut in for a long time, it takes a long time to turn them back on. So again, even if Iran tomorrow were to capitulate, which doesn't look likely at all, and were to reopen the Straits of Hormuz, the fundamental structural problem, the damage, the fact that in many of these cases, for example, now this is not oil, this has to do with lng. But the Qataris have called force majeure for three to five years. So that's all going to take a long time to get back online. And during that time, you're going to see price spikes. You're going to see right now I just read today in the New York Times that two Australian states, two of their provinces have made public transit free in response, you're going to see more and more of that. You're going to see fertilizer plants that rely on petrochemical products go offline. That affects farming. I mean, the ramifications are huge and legitimately like Mad Max level, terrifying. And the crazy thing is that it was All a choice. It was a war of choice. It was Donald Trump and his coterie deciding to do this, not something that was, was imposed on the United States or the world the way like the pandemic was where it was just this random freak event and okay, whom can you blame here? There is blame. It's like Bibi and Donald Trump.
- [05:34]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yeah, it's so crazy. Saurabh, let's put C2 up there on the screen actually to under basically to underscore what you're saying. This is from the Atlantic. Welcome to a multidimensional economic disaster. And what they specifically tie here is the AI boom to a lot of the cheap energy and of course the data center already build out and drain that all of these AI data centers were already having on our power grid. This does not at all reflect a situation where you're gonna have massive increases not only in energy cross globally, but they also talk about how the Gulf Arab states are basically the guarantors and investors of some 100 billions of dollars into these companies. These AI companies are basically the backbone of the US stock market. And Saurabh, you and I, you know, we've been deeply concerned about the US industrial base now, but for quite some time. So we could have a financial crisis, an energy shock and we're already going through effectively a reverse industrialization as a result already of nearly the last year of policy. Like what does that look like not just for Trump's agenda, but for all of us, as you're saying, in the health of our country.
- [06:36]
Saurabh Amari
Yeah. So the one spot, as you said, at least on equities markets was where all these AI companies and the whole AI revolution and the potential growth that was that it was driving even as it also threatened joblessness, I should say. But that was in two ways dependent on, on cheap energy. One was, of course you mentioned that, you know, the data centers take enormous energy to run. Okay, that's one. And second, it was also dependent on just oil flowing and therefore these Arab states having money that they can then invest in these projects. They're not going to invest if they're not making money. I mean it's very, it's as simple as that. So that's like a double blow to the US economy. Like one of the few bright spots in a US economy that otherwise was lagging in other ways that had been way too much focused on services and kind of low level services and high level financial services and so on. Okay, but now we're at the cutting edge of the AI revolution or we were until this war was launched.
- [07:40]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Well, I have my issues with the AI revolution, but there's no doubt that if the bubble pops, it's going to be extremely painful. And let me just read, because there's one other angle of the hit to AI here that was not immediately apparent to me that the Atlantic lays out in this piece. They say one of the clearest examples of the problems are advanced memory and training chips, which are among the most important or by far the most expensive components of training any AI model. Currently, most of these are produced by two companies in South Korea and one in Taiwan, is something all of us have focused a lot on. These countries, in turn get a large majority of their crude oil and much of their lng, which help fuel semiconductor manufacturing from the Persian Gulf. The chip companies also require helium sulfur and bromine, three key inputs to silicon wafers, largely sourced also from the region. In addition, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and other regional petro states have become key investors in the American AI firms that purchase most of those chips. And I think that's a really important example. But I also think saurabh that it just underscores, it's almost impossible to wrap your head around the disruptions here. I mean, the best analog we can look to is our recent past history with the combination of the Russia, Ukraine, war and Covid, obviously, which just screwed up supply chains in a million ways. Ways that even experts could not fully anticipate, how it would create problems and backlogs that would then go on to fuel inflation and have all of these residual both real economic and political effects.
- [09:13]
Saurabh Amari
Yeah, and it's so infuriating, dismaying, scary, terrifying. I don't know which adjective to pick, but I read in the Times also today that President Trump had said at one point, well, I'm not worried about the oil because it's really the Asian countries that are most dependent on Persian Gulf oil. And while that may be true, it reveals such profound ignorance of what a fungible commodity like oil is like. Right. If you pinch supply, it's in one corner of the world, prices rise everywhere else and just in general that you gum up the whole economy when you do that. So unless you're willing to impose domestic for the US export controls, where we keep our oil for ourselves, and that could also cause all sorts of problems unless we're willing to do that. The fact that this very important choke point in the global economy is being squeezed is also bad for the United States. And it was just part of this broader mentality where I think the, the American right. And the Trumpians got too high on their own supply. Yes, the US Is blessed in many, many ways. We have, we became the world's largest energy exporter in the world. We have these two oceans, you know, protecting us from any kind of immediate enemy or anything like that. So there's, there's these natural advantages, this natural bounty that the United States has, and all Americans should be grateful for it. But there are limits, right? We might want to de.
- [10:43]
Lawrence Wilkerson
Globalize.
- [10:44]
Saurabh Amari
And I've never been a fan of the kind of globalization that was that revealed its limits during COVID where suddenly realized that supply chains were way too far flung and at the imposition of the slightest stress, they would snap and we couldn't produce our own masks or protective equipment and so on. That was a problem and we should move toward maybe a less globalized world. I agree with that. But still, we are living in a globalized world to some extent. So that this attitude of, oh, well, beggar thy neighbor, it's just going to be China's or India's problem if oil stops flowing out of the Persian Gulf is, is, is stupid and it's arrogant, and I think we're all going to pay the consequences for it.
- [11:23]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
And to that point, actually, I think we have a good piece here. Let's put C6 up here on the screen. How the Iran war has already rippled across the world. Now, as you said, look, it might be China or India's problem, it might be South Korea's problem. South Korea, by the way, is, oh, I don't know, a top 10 trading partner. So is Japan, last time I checked. They're pointing out South Koreans are being told by their president to take shorter showers in Thailand, another actually vital ally in the region. They're saying you need to make sure that you're wearing short sleeves to work so that we can cap air conditioner use. I'm looking at news out of India, where this is personally tragic for me and for all the white tourists in New Delhi. Butter chicken has now disappeared from Indian menus because they don't have the cooking gas to be able to make it dosa. Apparently there's a huge shortage. I talked to my family recently. They're rationing cooking gas and they're looking at it. Sri Lanka is taking, you know, shortages. There is shortages and they're actually encouraging the work week to reduce. And C7, this is part of the point of what you're talking about, is that the Asian shortage has already hit because of the way the tankers move across the Globe. But what this map shows is that actually we're about two weeks away from some of the major impacts in closures simply because of length of the tankers. Now, the big question, as you said earlier, is about Donald Trump and his hubris by getting us into this situation. But solving a crisis like this, from what we saw during COVID not exactly his strong suit. So what do you think that the actual impact of this shortage will look like in terms of his administration, who are clearly scrambling, like, realistically, what can they do to get us out of this?
- [13:00]
Saurabh Amari
I really don't know. Because what it comes down to is. Is recognizing, strategically speaking, that Iran has this. Had always this potential to close the Straits of Hormuz, that they were able to always do that, and now they've exercised it, and there's no return, there's no easy return to the status quo ante. In other words, the Iranians will want, as part of any negotiated settlement, they will want some control over the state of Hormuz, and we should try to negotiate that. But the point is that that looks to the US like an enormous strategic blow, right? We expended all this energy, and at the end of the day, you have to grant the Iranians what they always possess, but now have decided to exercise in response to this war. So that's a blow to US Strategic prestige, a really incalculable blow. We can't even begin to measure the scale of it, otherwise you're going to be facing, obviously, a bloodbath in. In November, in the. In the elections. You're still gonna face that. It's only a question of how bloody the bloodbath will be. But if you think about it, there's a great tweet this morning. I saw someone said the objective of the war has become to restore the status quo ante before the war. Dumbest war ever. It really is like, what is the point of this operation now is to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before we went in, none of the other. The regime hasn't collapsed. Its will has hardened. It can still fire ballistic missiles as a front story in the New York Times today, basically saying. The US keeps saying, you know, 500% of Iran's capacity has been destroyed, and that very evening, you know, an Iranian missile will fall on some US Facility in Saudi Arabia and destroy a very kind of expensive command and control aircraft. So what's the point anymore? And again, I think the end point will be some capitulation, some recognition of Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. And that's like a Vietnam level debacle in terms of a blow to US Prestige, which hurts me as an American to think that we'd have to do
- [15:08]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
that when we didn't have to. Saurabh, I wanted to get your reaction to Trump's truth this morning, which obviously directly relates to the war, it also relates to the economic outlook. Appears to be yet another Trumpian blatant attempt at market manipulation here. He watches the treasury bond yields very closely. He watches obviously the oil market, the stock market very closely. And so this morning he tweeted out or truthed out. United States of America is in serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran. Great progress has been made. But if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately open for business, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells and carg island, and possibly all desalinization plants which we have purposely not yet touched. This is him pre announcing war crimes, by the way. This will be in retribution for our many soldiers and others that Iran has butchered and killed over the old regime's 47 year reign of terror. Thank you for your attention to this matter. I think people probably know you're not a fan of the Iranian regime. You are quite a vociferous critic of the current government in Iran. But what do you make of what Trump is claiming here about how there's a new, more moderate regime in place that he's totally working on a deal with?
- [16:31]
Saurabh Amari
I don't know where to begin. That's such a, like a kind of barrage of stupidities pile. The top stupidities. I don't know where to start. So first of all, I watch Iranian state TV 247 just to read the mood. There is no the regime is there. It's called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It's become more militarized. What's happened is all the restraining forces which, believe it or not, as much as a fan of I was not by him. He defined my life. The course of my life would have been completely different if he weren't around. But Ayatollah Khamenei was a restraining force relative to the kind of younger commanders that are in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These are the people who are in charge now. There is no indication. Yes, they're taking heavy, heavy blows, but they think that they have. I'M going to use a polite word for it instead of what comes to mind. They think that they have the United States in an economic and energy vice grip and they're going to squeeze and squeeze and until there is a kind of humiliating cry to uncle and again, yes, they're going to take enormous hits. But this is a huge, huge country of 90 million people, four times the size of Iraq. It's going to take a long time for it to wear down. Long before that Trump, the economic pain will be sort of too much for Trump. So that's the first thing is that his assertion that Iran is, you know, has the regime has changed. There's no sign of that. Second, the hitting of the desalination plans. Actually Iran relies very little on these kinds of plans. It's America's Gulf allies in Israel that are much more dependent on these sorts of facilities. And as Iran has proved, it can hit those and create calamitous effects for lots and lots of people who live in those in those countries. And again, same thing with the electricity infrastructure, the power plants, they can do that just as quickly. Except Iran's electricity system and the grid is far less centralized so that if you hit a single plant, it won't have the kind of effect that it would have. For example, if you do did an analogous thing, if they did the analogous thing to a country like Israel whose power system is much more centralized, you hit one node and boom, Israel goes into darkness. So I mean, these threats aren't everyone. This is not some secret intelligence. This is all in the public record. So just this stuff that he says, like it was funny when it was about Rosie o' Donnell a decade ago, this kind of bluster, it's really, really depressing and scary when it's, you know, the world, a world on the precipice of geopolitical and geo economic calamity.
- [19:09]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
And you don't detect as you're watching Iranian state tv, you don't detect any of their attempts to sort of like soften the line and create an opening to sell to the public. Some sort of, you don't see any
- [19:20]
Saurabh Amari
of that, not at all. Every night it's about revenge. The, the daughters of Minab, the school that got hit early in the operation, you know, and this is a culture that thrives on martyrdom, Shiite Islam. So every time you kill a commander, it creates like a mini, the only like the closest equivalent is a Catholic cult of the saints. Like it becomes some new basis or it'll be, you know, they killed some they hit a police station, the Israelis did, and they hit a street sweeper. Just a guy, like a random guy. So of course he becomes like this. You know, his coffin is laid out and people line up in huge numbers to touch the coffin and then rub it on their faces to get like a blessing from his act of martyrdom. That's the kind of people you're talking about. And again, so much of the perception about what Iran is or the kind of people is driven by this. You know, I'm part of it, this Iranian diaspora, very secular, very embittered. I understand the embitteredness about the regime, but they, they led us, I think they led U.S. policymakers for years to believe that that's how all Iranians are and forget that. No, it's a Shiite Muslim country. Lots and lots of people are not cynical about their religion. When you hear, when they talk about Imam Hussein and martyrdom and Karbala and all this sort of iconography of bloodied saints who give their lives for a greater cause, they really mean it. They mean it.
- [20:46]
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Kristin Davis
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- [23:47]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
That's a good transition to talk about what unfolded in Jerusalem and this international religious crisis. And we, we brought you in as the Catholic to explain some of these things to us. So in any case, Israeli police blocked on Palm Sunday Cardinal Pizzavala, who is the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulcher for Palm Sunday services. Now, because of the security situation, my understanding, Saurabh, is that he knew, you know, we're not going to be able to do our normal thing here, but we're going to come in, we're going to broadcast to, you know, to the world, to the global Catholic community. And he was blocked from doing that. You know, they expressed their outrage, we got a Huckabee statement, et cetera. So first, if you could just, if we could just start there. The Israelis have now sort of like backed down, apologize, et cetera. I'll get to that in a moment. But if you could just explain why this was such a significant thing for Catholics the world over.
- [24:43]
Saurabh Amari
Yeah, of course, it's Church of the Holy Sepulcher where not just Catholics but Christians believe, you know, Jesus's body was laid to rest after, after his death. And so that's very important. And Palm Sunday begins Holy Week, the most, the holiest week of the, of the Catholic and Christian liturgical calendar. And it's been centuries since the Latin Patriarch who represents the Catholic Church in the Holy Land has been unable to access, I mean through all the vicissitudes of the centuries, all these wars and things like that, he was still had been able to access the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. So that's a very, it's a very, very serious and grave thing. Now we can get into it. My understanding, to be fair to this, is it sounds like some middling kind of middle level policeman did something stupid. But the reason why I think it touched off this wider outrage is if this were a single incident on its own, you could sort of say, okay, well you know, it is what it is, but it's patched over. But it comes in this larger conte context of an Israeli society where this kind of sectarian chauvinism to which the Jews themselves had long been subjected, you know, elsewhere has now become increasingly prevalent. You know, the sort of, the youths who go around roughing up Catholic owned or Christian owned businesses, the attempts to squeeze out the Armenian quarter, the spitting on Christian evangelizers and this kind of stuff. So it comes within this wider context that's much more febrile in the Old City than it had been. It comes in a context in which the police forces, ultimately the domestic security forces in Israel are led by Minister Ben gvir, who is this convicted even by, you know, under Israel's own law, is a convicted felon and a kind of really nasty ethno chauvinist figure. He, he is basically kind of like an Israeli equivalent of a kind of Serbian, you know, national chauvinist. No, that's right from the 1990s. And it comes against the context of of course, that during the Gaza war, the shelling of the Holy Family Church, the Catholic parish in Gaza and the attacks on the west bank on All. By the way, I should say one of the things that bothers me as a Catholic is the way sometimes people speak up for people, for Palestinians in the west bank but only emphasize the Christians. It's like whatever horror is visited upon the Muslim Arabs, it's like, oh, well, you know, but don't do this to the Christian. And of course I have a degree of extra Solidarity as a Christian with fellow Christians. However, the rising kind of settler aggression in the west bank affects not just Christians but others as well. So sorry, that was a long answer. But the point is, against the backdrop of all of this, then that single incident of a policeman probably just doing something stupid stands out in a way that wouldn't have otherwise. Probably.
- [27:44]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Well, I appreciate you making that point, cuz I think it's a really important one about how I think we can all be honest. There's a lot of Islamophobia in this country in general and there's a lot of Islamophobia specifically within the Republican Party. I mean, you ask Laura Loomer, she'll tell you outright.
- [27:59]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Right?
- [28:00]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
She's not shy about it. And so to me, when you see an incident like this, I'm a secular person, but I believe everybody should be able to practice their faith. I believe in basic human rights being applied equally regardless of your faith or your color or your creed. And so to me, part of what you get from this is, oh, you think they're just going to attack or hate like the people you've otherized as like a bad guy? No, no, no, this applies across the board once you have this ethno supremacist ideology and culture.
- [28:33]
Saurabh Amari
Yeah, I mean, look, I think I became much more, I'll be honest, I became much more vocal about what was happening in Gaza in the wake of the Holy Family shelling. But I think I'm not alone in that. Lots of, lots of right of center Christians and Catholics then started to feel like, well, they can also, they should, they can and should speak up for civilians in Gaza generally rather than just merely our own co religionists. Because after all, the whole parable of the Good Samaritan is a reminder that the idea of who my neighbor is should be uncomfortable for Christians who should not be just merely my kin, that would be easy to count my own either blood kin or religious fellow kin as my neighbor. It's much more the Christian challenge to see the other who is different from me also as belonging to God ultimately as being made in the image of God.
- [29:37]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
And Sagar from, from what I can tell, this cardinal has exemplified that spirit of Christianity as well.
- [29:43]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yeah, I was talking to Krystal earlier. I mean, he offered himself, I know he was being attacked yesterday. Saurabh, you noted this, I think by Laura Loomer, for wearing a keffiyeh. He literally offered himself in exchange for an Israeli hostage and after many of those strikes took great aim. So actually I think he went to Gaza.
- [30:00]
Saurabh Amari
Right.
- [30:00]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
And actually in the ruins of this church, which was struck just to make sure that these people were religiously ministered to. So this is somebody who genuinely does live up to that. Now to your point, let's put D2 up there on the screen. The Israelis are now saying that the Israel temporarily asked worshipers from all faiths not to worship at the holy sites to protect them. They have since reversed that policy. Next one, guys. D3. Prime Minister Netanyahu saying that I have instructed the relevant authorities that he be granted full and immediate access. But to the point overall point of what you are making, from what I saw, nowhere at this time was any rabbi or Jewish worshiper told that they could not go to some of the holier sites in Jerusalem. And that kind of demonstrates the problems, like you said, with the police force and with many of the other people who are genuinely in charge and empowered in Israel, even including Ben Gvir Smotrich and some of these like full blown Serbian style ethno nationalists. Now, I guess, bigger picture and I think this is what matters more than anything. What I wanna continue on strategically is this invasion of Lebanon. Guys, let's put the next one up there on the screen. We have the Prime Minister just yesterday. This is basically nowhere in terms of its coverage in the US has ordered the military now to expand the invasion of southern Lebanon to include all the way up to a further border. That would put some 1 million people, 1 million people who will be displaced. And they're even saying internally in the country they can never be allowed to return. Krystal said earlier Saurabh, that this is actually larger square footage actually in terms of land than Russia did in its current invasion of Ukraine or occupation of elements of Ukraine. And yet there is silence actually not only from Western media, but really from Western governments around the globe. What do you think the lasting impacts of this occupation and probably annexation of Lebanon will be?
- [31:55]
Saurabh Amari
Yeah, I mean look, I think that that of all people, the Jewish people should be uncomfortable with population transfers. I mean, you know, look at Israel's founding. There was a massive, obviously population transfer that happened. The it's because the Arab states rejected Israel's creation and waged war and they lost that war. And in that time, in the aftermath of World War II, it was quite common to move populations around en masse in order to create new nation states. So therefore I don't actually, you guys might disagree, but I don't blame Israel uniquely as being. Because that happened when India and Pakistan were separated from each other. That happened of course, to lots of German speaking populations across Europe in the wake of World War II, it's why the city of Danzig, the German city of Danzig became the Polish city of Gdansk. So that is a. In, in the 1940s, as recently as the 1940s, the mid 20th century, it was still like a norm, a terrible, terrible norm. But we were supposed to have then, since then to have learned from that and think that moving populations around willy nilly and this kind of suffering that that imposes is not something we do because it, for one thing, for Israel's own security, it breeds another generation of Lebanese or Gazans who are on the move or have been forced into camps and so on and are extremely embittered. So tactically it's bad. But also morally, again, I think that if there's one of the lessons of the Jewish 20th century is not to move populations around in this way and just to openly talk about it. I mean, I saw an op ed in the Jerusalem Post. Again, it's not even the newspapers view, to be fair, it's just a single op ed, but it was like, well, you know, we really need to move people out of Gaza was basically the upshot. Again, like this kind of talk has become completely normalized, standard issue.
- [33:55]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yeah, yeah, I mean this, yeah, I saw that op ed that was just outright calling for ethnic cleansing. And they said, oh well, if we don't want to be the oppressors forever, then I guess we just have to get rid of the people. As if that's a whom we would oppress. Exactly. As if that's a moral or ethical approach. Last question I have for you, Sourabh, if we could actually just go back to the Netanyahu tweet here about him basically saying like, okay, we've changed our mind. But I wanted to linger on a piece of this. He says, over the past several days, Iran has repeatedly targeted the holy sites of all three monotheistic religions in Jerusalem with ballistic missiles. And one strike missile fragments crash meters from the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. I've heard him mentioned this a number of times. It makes me very uncomfortable. There was previously a rabbi who floated, hey, we could do a false flag, we could bomb Al Aqsa Mosque. And then we could, you know, use that as our excuse. First of all, then all the, you know, Muslim countries, all the Arabs are gonna fight against Iran. They're gonna be so mad that Iran did this. That'll help solve the problem. And then second of all, you know, that opens it up for their own sort of like, you know, views of rebuilding the temple, which important both to Christians and to Jews. But if you could just speak to how combustible this situation is. And, you know, it's something that I kind of have a hard time as a secular person, have a little bit of a hard time wrapping my head around. I feel like it's a bit of a blind spot for myself because you're right, like, people in Iran genuinely hold their faith, right? Christian evangelicals, they really mean the things that they believe. You know, the, you know, the especially more fanatical Jews in Israel, like, they have certain ideas about how they're gonna bring about their own end times fantasies. So could you speak a little bit to that piece as well?
- [35:36]
Saurabh Amari
Well, I think, look, does, does, does the Iranian regime fly some missiles, like, including ones with submunitions that are not always accurate and could, like a fragment could have hit the old city? Yes. And so that's like, I don't, I'm, I'm not inclined to think there's some, you know, BB Attempt to create a false flag. BB is, still has. Although he has nutters in his orbit, he himself, I think, has his head on straight enough to know to not to mess with things like that. That's my belief. However, I think to your, to your larger point, that, that this is a moment of extreme danger for the world, in part because of the energy and economic issues that we talked about. And then you layer on top of that, or maybe it's the fundament, the field, the deep theological issues, which is why I think it's just so irresponsible for the Trump administration to get into this, a war that basically every other predecessor had, had resisted. Right. Because again, you, you open up this whole world of potential consequences that are very. It's very hard to put, you know, these, in these, these, these, these creatures of Pandora's box back inside.
- [36:57]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yeah.
- [36:57]
Saurabh Amari
You have the economic dimension, you have the energy dimension, and then you have the religious mention of potential harm to holy sides. Whoever does it, however, does it, whether it's on purpose or accidental, just. This is why George W. Bush wasn't inclined to do this war. This is why Trump himself in his first term was disinclined to do this war. So the fact that this second time around, he sort of threw the dice and said, you only live once with the most sensitive region in the world, basically, is, is something from each. I can't forgive the Republican Party ever again. Like all the other issues in the world can go to hell, right. Compared to being responsible stewards of that region and and not like messing with the world in that way. Yeah, the Republican Party, the fact that it could not prevent a president coming to power who would be this irresponsible needs to go away for a long time and meditate. And that's what we will do. I mean, every poll seems to suggest that the midterms are going to be brutal. Probably 2028 is is going to be brutal. It's just the party is irreformably irresponsible.
- [38:12]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
All right, well appreciate Saurabh. Great to see you. Thank you so much. It's great to have your insights on all these issues.
- [38:18]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Thanks man.
- [38:19]
Saurabh Amari
Be well.
- [38:21]
Erin Welsh
Usually on this podcast We'll Kill youl, we talk about the diseases, infections, and biological threats that can make us really sick.
- [38:27]
Holly Frey
But right now we're doing something a little different.
- [38:29]
Erin Welsh
We're stepping back and looking at what the human body needs to keep going.
- [38:33]
Holly Frey
When you consider what we know about sleep in humans, there's one rule that comes out we are predictably unpredictable sleepers.
- [38:41]
Erin Welsh
We're talking about why sleep works the way it does, why our bodies don't follow neatly rules, and why modern life makes rest so hard to come by.
- [38:48]
Holly Frey
The second half of our series takes us to the digestive system with a multi part series on what happens after we eat. Okay, I just have to say that all of my favorite words apparently are digestive words.
- [38:59]
Erin Welsh
Sphincter, peristalsis, duodenum. It's fascinating, it's funny, and it matters so much more than you think.
- [39:06]
Holly Frey
Episodes of our new series run from January 20 through February 17, with new episodes every Tuesday on the Exactly Right Network.
- [39:13]
Erin Welsh
Listen to this podcast will kill you as part of the Exactly Right Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts on the
- [39:21]
Child (Smokey Bear ad)
Adventures of Curiosity Cove Podcast what if the Right Fit isn't what everyone expects? In the case of the Right Fit, Ella explores movement, confidence, and belonging and learns that not all strength looks the same. Tennis is powerful, fast, focused, and kind of fun. Strong swing, Ella this Women's History Month story introduces kids to women who change sports by trusting themselves and moving differently. A thoughtful episode about identity, courage, and helping kids discover where they truly belong. So it's okay if I'm not quite sure what my thing is yet. It's absolutely okay when and if you do find a sport you love, you may be the next Gertrude, Tony, or Venus at Curiosity Cove. Listen to Adventures at Curiosity Cove every Monday from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [40:20]
Kristin Davis
I'm Kristen Davis, host of the podcast Are youe a Charlotte? In 1998, my life was forever changed when I took on the role of Charlotte Yorke on a new show called Sex the. Now I get to sit down with some of my favorite people and relive all of the incredible moments this show brought us on and off the screen. Like when Sarah Jessica Parker shared that she forgot we filmed the pilot episode. You forgot about it in the very long time they took a bit about it.
- [40:48]
Holly Frey
And when the show was picked up, I panicked.
- [40:51]
Kristin Davis
And Cynthia Nixon reveals if she's a Miranda. We both feel confident about our brains, but that's. That's kind of where it ends. Plus, Sex and the City super fan Megan Thee stallion doesn't hold back on her opinions of the show.
- [41:06]
Dad (Smokey Bear ad)
Carrie will literally go set New York on fire and then come back and type about it at the end of the day, like. Like half of it wasn't her fault.
- [41:13]
Kristin Davis
Listen to Are you a Charlotte? On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts
- [41:22]
Saurabh Amari
now.
- [41:22]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
We also didn't want to keep our eye off of a very strange story that's happening here, here on US Soil. We have multiple missing scientists. We have mysterious drone swarms over U.S. bases. We have a few congressmen which are asking big questions about this. One of them is Representative Eric Burleson. And here is what he had to say.
- [41:39]
Representative Eric Burleson
General McCasland apparently walked out of his home, left all of his devices, and never came back. And Monica Reza, she was on a hike as well and mysteriously disappeared. And I've heard of others. We. We've already sent a letter. When I first came in, I heard of another gentleman, and I'll keep that name to my to sure. You know, out of respect, I sent a letter to the FBI investigating the suspicious suicide of another individual who had worked alongside, you know, other whistleblowers like David Grush and Jake Barber, who had come forward so their colleagues is mysteriously committed suicide. We've already sent the letter to the FBI to investigate that, and that is an ongoing investigation.
- [42:26]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
So to catch everybody up on top of this drone store, we have all these missing scientists. Right. And now let's put this one up here on the screen. This is E2. This was a married mother who vanished last year could potentially have actually been tied to these missing and dead US Scientists. This fills in some of the gaps that Representative Burleson was saying, big picture for those who haven't tuned into the story at all, we have about five missing scientists all across the nation. NASA engine major figures at the Air Force Research Laboratory. Many of them were actually overseeing like futuristic metal for rocket engines in terms of their projects. One of them obviously is this retired General William McClaskan. Now his disappearance is really strange because we had previous incidents involving Wright Patterson Air Force Base. And the tying of all these things together has had a lot of people in the UFO community really concerned about like, what exactly, exactly is happening here. We were talking, I mean, your mind immediately starts to go to like three body problem, if you've ever read that book. But I mean, look, I don't know how crazy that is because now we're also in a time of war. And in that time of war, what we've actually seen are all of these drones that have just been hovering apparently over US Air Force base. Can we skip ahead to E5 please? Because in the midst of this missing scientist wave, we have, quote, multiple waves of unauthorized drones recently spotted over a strategic U.S. air Force base. This was the U.S. air Force base at Barksdale in Louisiana. And it was, quote, under a shelter in place order on March 9th. So nine days after the US Iran war launch a report of unmanned aerial systems operating over the installations. This is the same Air Force base which houses those B52 bombers and plays a critical role in the command and control of the Air Force nuclear defense capabilities. I will note on this one, I could see it both ways. As a UFO person. Drone swarms over nuclear bases is like ufo, like it goes back for decades. This has happened multiple times in Strategic Air Command. Specifically, the nuclear arsenal seems to be monitored. But when you combine all these things together, the fact that we're in a time of war, you also have to ask the main reason why normal national security officials who are not UFO people at all ever got involved in the story. People like Rubio and others is people in the Air Force and in the army kept coming to them and go, no, you don't get it. Like there are drones hovering over our bases. There are things that are just monitoring what we're doing and they're like, oh my God, this could be Russia or China. Now, the more they dig, it's not Russia or China. This one, I actually could see a situation where this one is Russia or China specifically, also because they're the ones who are helping Iran. Remember the whole Chinese weather balloon situation. It's not like you would put this out of character for all of them. But if you put it all together, it's very mysterious and scary. And for those who think I'm a kook, it doesn't just have to be UFO related. Do you know how many nuclear scientists that we've killed in Iran with the Israelis, The Israelis are bragging about it right now, how they've killed two missing nuclear scientists already. Didn't I just read earlier in the A block we hit a specific part of Tehran University. What do you think that's for? It's for military related, nuclear related research. So this is a campaign which I mean is very Manhattan Project kind of Oppenheimer, where it could be UFO related. It also could be related here to the war with Iran. The scientists, though I should clarify, this has been a months long, if not a year long thing. So it's somewhat disconnected. But I do think the stories are linked.
- [45:57]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yeah, I mean, I think there's three obvious possibilities. One is the connection to the UFO stuff. And by the way, part of what really raised eyebrows is the one of these scientists who this one disappeared was the General, Major General William Casland. And his disappearance occurs shortly after Trump announces like, okay, we're gonna release all of this like UAP material and let you know what's going on there. Not that we have, I think a lot of hope about just how transparent that will be, but that was part of what raised eyebrows. And his is, first of all, the circumstances are very strange. He left Albuquerque on foot, like left his home on foot, didn't have his phone. There was clothing found, again coming right in proximity to this UAP directive coming out. He was actually in the Podesta, the 2016 Podesta. WikiLeaks emails. As someone who, quote, had firsthand knowledge of UAPs, he oversees this classified space weapons program at Wright Patterson Sagra. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's where the supposed New Mexico. Yes, that's the idea in the UFO conspiracy community is that the craft was taken to this Wright Patterson air base. It's the subject of a lot of the sort of the conspiracies in the space. So when he goes missing in this weird way, it's very eyebrow raised. And the other one that is the most eyebrow raising is Monica Jacinto Reza, who worked under him under his program. She's the one who was studying this very advanced nickel alloy. And again, the circumstances are really weird. She was hiking with a group of people. Not alone. Hiking with a group of people. Vanishes. She was some 30ft away from her companions. And then she's just gone. And they've found no sign of her whatsoever. Extensive search, volunteers, dogs, helicopters, the works. No sign of her whatsoever. So look, like I was saying, three possibilities. One is some sort of relation to the UAP program, perhaps wanting to silence them, et cetera. That's one possibility. The other is foreign intelligence. The other is just a coincidence. It's a violent country. Unfortunately, weird and bad things happen all the time. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that this is all just coincidences. So you've got those two and then you've got about three others. Some of them are more or less sort of tangentially related. Certainly some of them, I think it's probably like people trying to put pieces together that don't totally fit. But it's enough that a former assistant director of the FBI Swecker, who was interviewed by the New York Post, said, hey, these should really be investigated in connection with each other. Like these shouldn't be separate investigations. They should at least be be looked at. Which tells you it's not just Kukuri. There's at least enough here. And as Sagar said, it certainly wouldn't be the first time that high level scientists at like the bleeding edge of, you know, nuclear or, you know, physical sciences that they would be targeted. And so I think that's why it's at least significant enough to kind of flag here without fully hitting our tinfoil
- [49:04]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
hats on whether it's Russia. Well, my hat's on.
- [49:06]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
My hat's on.
- [49:08]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
The hat's.
- [49:09]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
I'm just saying, I don't think you need the tinfoil hat to look at this and be like this at least bears looking into whether it's flagging, looking into, et cetera, whether it's Russia, whether
- [49:19]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
it's China, whether it's Trisolarans. Everybody has an interest in killing scientists, right? Everybody has an interest in killing scientists.
- [49:27]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
I literally just read Three Body Problems. So yeah. So reading that and then seeing this, of course I instantly was like, oh, what's going on here?
- [49:35]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
The show is, you know, it's not, it's not the greatest thing ever made, but it was okay. It was okay.
- [49:40]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
We started watching it. I like it so far.
- [49:42]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
It's all right. It's.
- [49:43]
Representative Eric Burleson
Yeah.
- [49:44]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
You guys like the book is always better, right?
- [49:47]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Apparently there's a Chinese version.
- [49:50]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Oh, really?
- [49:50]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Did a. Well, in China, obviously Chinese book. So I think China did like a multi episode series where it's like akin to like a HBO style prestige show that's supposed to be good. So if anybody knows where I could watch it, I'll watch it. As long as it has subtitles, I'd be happy to watch.
- [50:06]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
That's cool. Yeah, I would check that out too.
- [50:08]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Okay, we've got Wilkerson standing by. Let's get to it.
- [50:11]
Child (Smokey Bear ad)
On the Adventures of Curiosity Cove Podcast, what if the right fit isn't what everyone expects? In the case of the Right Fit, Ella explores movement, confidence, and belonging and learns that not all strength looks the same. Tennis is powerful, fast, focused, and kind of fun. She strong swing Ella this Women's History Month story introduces kids to women who change sports by trusting themselves and moving differently. A thoughtful episode about identity, courage, and helping kids discover where they truly belong. So it's okay if I'm not quite sure what my thing is yet? It's absolutely okay. When and if you do find a sport you love, you may be the next Gertrude, Tony, or Venus at Curiosity. Listen to Adventures of Curiosity Cove every Monday from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [51:12]
Erin Welsh
Usually on this podcast, We'll Kill youl, we talk about the diseases, infections and biological threats that can make us really sick.
- [51:18]
Holly Frey
But right now we're doing something a little different.
- [51:20]
Erin Welsh
We're stepping back and looking at what the human body needs to keep going.
- [51:24]
Holly Frey
When you consider what we know about sleep in humans, there's one rule that comes out we are predictably unpredictable sleepers.
- [51:32]
Erin Welsh
We're talking about why sleep works the way it does, why our bodies don't follow neat rules, and why modern life makes rest so hard to come by.
- [51:39]
Holly Frey
The second half of our series takes us to the digestive system with a multi part series on what happens after we eat. Okay, I just have to say that all of my favorite words apparently are digestive words.
- [51:50]
Erin Welsh
Sphincter, peristalsis, duodenum. It's fascinating, it's funny, and it matters so much more than you think.
- [51:57]
Holly Frey
Episodes of our new series run from January 20 through February 17, with new episodes every Tuesday on the Exactly Right Network.
- [52:04]
Erin Welsh
Listen to this podcast Will Kill youl as part of the Exactly Right Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [52:11]
Kristin Davis
I'm Kristen Davis, host of the podcast Are youe a Charlotte? In 1998, my life was forever changed when I took on the role of Charlotte Yorke on a new called Sex and the City. Now I get to sit down with some of my favorite people and relive all of the incredible moments this show brought us on and off the screen. Like when Sarah Jessica Parker shared that she forgot we filmed the pilot episode. You forgot about it in the very long time they took. Forgot about it.
- [52:39]
Holly Frey
And when the show was picked up, I panicked.
- [52:41]
Kristin Davis
And Cynthia Nixon reveals if she's a Miranda. We both feel confident about our brains, but that's kind of where it ends. Plus, Sex and the City superfan Megan Thee stallion doesn't hold back on her opinions of the show.
- [52:57]
Dad (Smokey Bear ad)
Carrie will literally go set New York on fire and then come back and type about it at the end of the day like half of it wasn't her fault.
- [53:04]
Kristin Davis
Listen to Are you a Charlotte? On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [53:13]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
So for more on the Iran war, we're very fortunate to be joined this morning by Lawrence Wilkerson. He's a retired U.S. army colonel. He was former chief of staff, staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, Vietnam veteran and also former faculty member at the US Naval War College and was a prominent critic of the Iraq war. Genuinely one of my heroes. Certainly. Great to meet you, sir. And great to have you on.
- [53:34]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Good to see you, sir.
- [53:35]
Lawrence Wilkerson
Good. Good to be with you.
- [53:36]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yes, of course. So let's go ahead and start with some of the latest here recent interview that President Trump gave to Financial Times. We can put some the highlights, if you want to call them that, up on the screen here. He told the Financial Times he, quote, wants to seize Iran's oil, quote, to be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran, specifically considering taking Carg Island. He compares it to Venezuela, saying the US could control oil there indefinitely. Also claims Iran has no real defense, quote, I don't think they have any defense. We could take it very easily. Acknowledges that Carg island would require a lengthy occupation. He also says we've bombed 13,000 targets. We've got about 3,000 targets left. And claims that regime change has effectively already happened. So your reaction to some of what President Trump is claiming here in this interview?
- [54:30]
Lawrence Wilkerson
I think we're seeing Donald Trump do his best to create an aura around this decision to go to war in Iran that looks successful and he's having great difficulty doing it, whether marshaling forces to show the American people that he can do that or whether it's actually describing the situation in Iran. I bring it to my group's attention and most of them know what I'm talking about, that when I used to be on the game floor in some of the biggest simulations and war games the United States played Global, for example, at the Naval War College, where former Secretaries of Defense, or in one case, sitting Secretaries of Defense, would play the President in the game. These were very serious games. And one of the things I would always ask the people on the game floor is, how are you doing? Or some question like that. And if a Navy captain or an army colonel came back to me and said, we're accomplishing our. Our objectives, I'd take him in the corner and chew his butt out. And I would say, that's not what I asked you. Are you accomplishing your mission? You can bomb the hell out of the world and accomplish your objectives. So many bombs, so many targets, so many airplanes, and not be accomplishing your mission. And they would look back at me with some amazement. Oh, oh, is that right, sir? Okay, let me get back to. That's what I would say here. You can drop all the bombs in the world, you can be accomplishing your plans and all that, but if they aren't leading you to accomplishing your mission, it's nonsense. And that's what's happening here, partly because no one has articulated the mission.
- [56:21]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Sir, I'm actually really curious, considering your experience in the Bush administration. The current plan is now to go in, or at least one floated plan is to go in, use US ground troops to seize 1,000 pounds of uranium, somehow just be on the ground for days or weeks, be able to take that without taking any casualties or minimal casualties, potentially with the 82nd Airborne, that would be surrounding them from a military strategic level. Also, genuinely, as somebody who was engaged probably in similar conversations there at the time, I mean, how fantastical of a plan is that? What are the realities of being able to successfully be able to pull that off, not only just to extract the uranium, but also to make sure that there's minimal U.S. casualties?
- [57:04]
Lawrence Wilkerson
First of all, I don't think General Keane, and I don't know him that well, but I've seen a little bit of his activities and I know something of his objections to this entire process. They weren't heeded, of course, but I don't think anyone is going to give the real evidence or facts of what's going to happen. I see forces moving from Naha and Okinawa, the 15th MU, I believe the forward deployed. I see forces moving from Southern California, from Washington State, from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, from Ramstein. Of course, all manner of forces moving toward or supposedly toward some of them haven't even received a warning order yet, if you can believe that the area, what that means in terms of what's been Stated, I think is very difficult to ascertain, I hope, probably because the military is obfuscating it and doesn't want anybody, including the enemy, to know what we're going to do. But I think you're right. In terms of the array of forces being put down, it looks as if we're going to have some more or less conventional forces to protect as well they can, those special operators who are going in to try and find something that we want. And from what Dr. Ted Postall has told me up at emeritus professor at mit, the most serious thing is, and I think Ted's right on this, he thinks, as the North Koreans did and fooled us in 2002, I was there when they did it. They have the capability to match the enriched uranium to the warhead, to the Grumshaw or whatever missile and send a nuclear weapon at Israel. And they are fast perfecting that deep underground in a laboratory that they built especially for this purpose. If that's the case, I suspect that's principally what we're after. I don't know, but I would say that's probably the main target we're after. And I think we have less than a 50% chance of achieving success.
- [59:12]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
So you believe that decision may have already been made. And how does that change the game? Obviously, Iran has talked a lot about their goal in this war is to establish some level of deterrence so they're not constantly being threatened and bombed by the US and by Israelis. So how does the strategic calculus change for us if Iran has decided like, okay, well, I guess we're off to the races here.
- [59:36]
Lawrence Wilkerson
That's a very good question, one a group of us were pondering until the wee hours last night. And I think there's another dimension here that is crucial. We have seen devastating accuracy based on truly excellent intelligence all through the region by Iran, from Erbil in Kurdistan to our own embassy in Baghdad to the two aircraft that crashed over Iraq. By the way, one of those aircraft, we have it from good authority, was actually hit by a shoulder fired missile. It wasn't an accident. It actually was hit by a missile and went down to other things that they've done in countries like Bahrain, where they destroyed our entire 5th Fleet capability, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Now think of this for a moment. We know that Iran has a second set of targets in countries in the region. It is waiting to see which of those countries actually support, materially support these actions that are supposedly coming up by these ground forces from the United States and perhaps Britain. They are then going to Execute that second. And if they execute that second target list with the devastating effect that they did the first, the global economy is going to go into depression because it will take out almost all of the capacity. Whether it gets through the straight or not will be irrelevant because it will be destroyed. This is significant and we're not even paying any attention to it.
- [61:14]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Sir, how worried are you about the use of nuclear weapons by Israel, by Iran, by the United States, Very especially Israel.
- [61:22]
Lawrence Wilkerson
I would put the order of probability in that order. Israel first, Iran possibly second. If Ted's right. And I don't think, I don't even think Donald Trump, I hope I phrase that properly. I don't even think Donald Trump would resort to nuclear weapons.
- [61:38]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Tell us about that with Israel then. You've dealt with the Israelis. You've studied them for a long time. Why are you so worried about it?
- [61:43]
Lawrence Wilkerson
It, I remember in 73, if it hadn't been for the Soviets and us and Henry Kissinger to a certain extent, bringing the pressure that both capitals brought on Israel. Golda Meir at the time, I think they had already uploaded one or two bombs and were going to drop it on the Egyptian Third army, which was putting them in peril at that moment. What really solved that was the Israelis managed to flank that army and didn't need the nuclear weapon. But Golden Mer at the time, maybe it was for public consumption, told a BBC reporter, and it was on the, on the top front page above the foal of one of the London papers the next morning, that in response to his question, would you use a nuclear weapon? She didn't bat an eye.
- [62:31]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
She said, yes, you were telling us before the segment started, there were some headlines jumping out at you this morning in the Israeli press, in particular about JD Vance potentially looking for an off ramp and wanting to put Israel's interests to the side, which would be necessary in order to even begin to explore an off ramp. You know, do you put any credence in that reporting? And what off ramp exists for the US at this point?
- [62:54]
Lawrence Wilkerson
I think we should declare victory and quit. That's what I think. And Trump's a genius at lying about it. So I think with the MAGA base at least, although it's becoming even more fragmented than he thought probably by this time, I think still he'd have enough core there that would believe him no matter what fantastic lies he told about it. But declare victory and quit and tell Netanyahu he's on his own. The only problem with that is what we just discussed. Would Netanyahu being on his own, seeing the Jewish state of Israel disappearing under his feet to be credited to him in history, would he not use a nuclear weapon or two? And as a military professional, he wouldn't use one. He'd have to use quite a few to have any impact on a vast country like Iran. 93 million people the size of Western Europe, one nuclear weapon of the kilotonage that Israel has would not do very much. If he dropped it on Tehran, of course, it would be bloody, it would be terrible, be horrible. Hiroshima, Nagasaki. But I don't think he would do that. He'd drop it on these military targets that are significantly underground, and that's not going to do very much. So he'd have to use many of them. And then the genies is truly out of the bottle.
- [64:10]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Yeah. Last question for you, sir. You served in Vietnam. We were reading A quote from General Westmoreland this morning from 1965. He said there's no scenario where US Marines would ever engage with the Vietnamese in the very first weeks of the war. Do you see parallels here with some of these deployments? Tell us about it.
- [64:27]
Lawrence Wilkerson
The major parallel I see is we went in, I think, with reasonably good intentions, and we ruined it all. And we didn't recognize it it for 59,000 plus casualties later. Now, there were other reasons. Johnson committing that huge amount of troops. He did. I think President Johnson knew. He knew. George Ball had told him, this is a case study I taught at William Mary, that it wasn't going to do any good. And LBJ actually said, and I quote, oh, ho. Ain't going to be moved by no bombs, unquote. That's a direct quote from lbj. And he knew it. But he knew also that if he cut and ran from Vietnam, he would lose the election. And so he didn't. And some 30,000 added to that, 59,000 killed later, we finally left. This is a similar situation and with a much different administration, which I don't think even knows how to make national security decisions.
- [65:26]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Well, retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, thank you so much for your time this morning. We got a lot out of this. We hope you'll consider coming back.
- [65:31]
Erin Welsh
Back.
- [65:31]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Thank you, sir. We appreciate it.
- [65:33]
Lawrence Wilkerson
Thank you. Take care.
- [65:34]
Co-host or interviewer (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We'll have a great show for you all tomorrow. We'll see you then.
- [65:51]
Dad (Smokey Bear ad)
All right, son, time to put out this campfire.
- [65:53]
Child (Smokey Bear ad)
Dad, we learned about this in school.
- [65:55]
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Oh, did you now? Okay, what's first?
- [65:58]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Smokey Bear said to first drown it
- [66:00]
Child (Smokey Bear ad)
with the bucket of water, then stir it with a shovel.
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Wilmer Valderrama
Hey, I'm Wilmer Valderrama, and this is Freddy Rodriguez. And we're back. Dos amigos. Season two, baby. Last time, we went deep on our careers, our lives, our art, and everything in between. Our big breaks, our auditions, the near misses, the epiphanies, the moments that changed our lives forever. This season, we're deepening our relationships, creating collaborations, and the door always stays open for a third amigo to pull up a chair. Listen to those amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [66:51]
Host (The Hill or similar news/podcast host)
Then she says, have you seen a photo of my son? And I'm like, who is this person?
- [66:56]
Host (Boys and Girls podcast)
Welcome to the boys and girls podcast. Arranged marriage is basically a reality show, and you're auditioning for your soulmate. And who's judging? Only your entire family. I sacrificed myself to this ancient tradition, hoping to find love the right way. And instead, I found chaos, comedy, and a lot of kush. Listen to boys and Girls on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [67:22]
Erin Welsh
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.