3/5/25: Krystal and Saagar REACT To Trump State Of The Union

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar: Detailed Summary of Episode 3/5/25 - "Krystal and Saagar REACT To Trump State Of The Union"

Release Date: March 5, 2025

In this illuminating episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, hosts Krystal Ball and Sagar Enjeti provide a comprehensive and critical analysis of former President Donald Trump's recent State of the Union address. The episode delves deep into the nuances of Trump's speech, examining its policy implications, strategic messaging, and potential impact on the upcoming midterm elections. Below is a structured summary capturing all key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

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1. Introduction

Krystal and Sagar kick off the episode by emphasizing the significance of independent media in holding powerful figures accountable. They highlight the unique position of Breaking Points in providing balanced perspectives from both the left and the right.

2. Overview of Trump's State of the Union

The hosts begin by contextualizing Trump's address, noting its unprecedented length of approximately 1 hour and 43 minutes, surpassing President Clinton's 2000 speech by 15 minutes. They express a consensus that the speech was overly lengthy and could have benefited from editorial cuts.

Notable Quote:

[02:26] Sagar Enjeti: "It was long. It was long. So that's. So we're trying to call some of the best takeaways for all of you."

3. Analysis of Economic Policies

a. Social Security Cuts and Fraud Claims

A significant portion of the discussion centers around Trump's allegations of fraud within the Social Security program. Krystal criticizes Trump's narrative, suggesting it serves as a pretext to justify potential cuts to the program.

Notable Quote:

[05:26] Krystal Ball: "When you're setting up, and this is why it was significant that Trump brought it up, when you were bringing this up, you are creating a pretext to cut the program."

b. Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China

Trump announced a 25% across-the-board tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico while addressing past tariffs on China. Krystal and Krystal analyze the vagueness surrounding these tariffs, interpreting it as a signal that Trump might roll back existing measures.

Notable Quote:

[04:00] Krystal Ball: "...which I think probably indicates that the signaling that they might be rolled back could be the case because he certainly wasn't touting the Canada and Mexico 25% across the board."

4. Culture War Issues

The hosts dissect the extensive focus on cultural and identity issues within the speech. Topics such as DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion), transgender rights, and "trans crt" were prominently featured, aligning with traditional Republican culture war rhetoric.

Notable Quote:

[08:24] Krystal Ball: "It's very common to fixate on identity and cultural issues, similar to how Democrats have leaned into them when lacking substantive policy agendas."

5. Protests and Democratic Reactions

The episode covers the Democratic protest led by Congressman Al Green, who was escorted out of the chamber for disrupting the speech. The hosts critique the effectiveness of the protest, labeling some Democratic actions as "lame" and "meme fodder."

Notable Quote:

[37:52] Krystal Ball: "Got off to a raucous start and then became extremely lame."

Additionally, Krystal and Sagar remark on the Democrats' symbolic gestures, such as wearing pink and holding "bingo" sign protests, suggesting these actions may backfire by becoming easy targets for ridicule.

6. The Influence of Elon Musk and Doge

A standout topic is Trump's acknowledgment of Elon Musk and the mention of Doge (a reference to Musk's cryptocurrency endeavors). The hosts express surprise and concern over Musk's elevated role in the administration, questioning the implications of Musk heading the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (GoJ).

Notable Quote:

[20:37] Krystal Ball: "He's really tied his brand literally, to one of the most eccentric and polarizing people in the world."

The partnership between Trump and Musk is highlighted as unprecedented and potentially destabilizing, with Krystal questioning why Trump would cede significant control to Musk.

7. Implications for the Midterm Elections

Krystal and Sagar speculate on the potential repercussions of Trump's policies and messaging on the upcoming midterms. They argue that the focus on culture war issues may offer limited runway for Republicans, especially if economic conditions worsen due to policies like Social Security cuts and increased tariffs.

Notable Quote:

[34:13] Emily Jashinsky: "One of the big lessons for Democrats should be that if you are asked to choose between Trump and Republicans, red meat, culture warfare and Democrats, for many voters, Republicans still come out on top, even if they don't like the way that Donald Trump talks."

They further discuss the historical context of the Tea Party movement, drawing parallels to suggest that Republican enthusiasm may peak early but could decline if underlying economic issues persist.

8. Conclusion

In wrapping up, Krystal and Sagar reiterate their concerns about the Trump administration's focus on divisive cultural issues over substantive economic and policy reforms. They caution that while the current messaging might resonate with a segment of the electorate, long-term sustainability is questionable, especially if economic hardships intensify.

Notable Quote:

[50:02] Sagar Enjeti: "This State of the Union... showcase a ton of red meat... for us, like, when we look at the dangers of natural disaster, Social Security, economic problems and... those are all very, very dangerous places to be."

They conclude by emphasizing the importance of independent media in dissecting and exposing the intricacies of political maneuvers, urging listeners to stay informed and engaged.

---

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Economy and Tariffs:

  [04:00] Krystal Ball: "...he did not confirm any of those pieces."

• Social Security Concerns:

  [05:26] Krystal Ball: "He did not confirm any of those pieces."

• Protests:

  [37:52] Krystal Ball: "Got off to a raucous start and then became extremely lame."

• Influence of Elon Musk:

  [20:37] Krystal Ball: "He's really tied his brand literally, to one of the most eccentric and polarizing people in the world."

• Midterm Implications:

  [34:13] Emily Jashinsky: "...red meat, culture warfare and Democrats, for many voters, Republicans still come out on top..."

---

Final Thoughts

This episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar offers a critical lens on Trump's State of the Union address, highlighting the administration's strategic focus on culture war issues and the ambiguous stance on economic policies. The hosts effectively dissect the potential pitfalls of such an approach, especially in the context of upcoming elections and existing economic challenges. Their analysis underscores the importance of vigilance and informed discourse in navigating the complex landscape of American politics.

Transcript

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

So good.

[Ryan Grim]

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[Krystal Ball]

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[Emily Jashinsky]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Okay. Rock, paper scissors for it. Rock, paper, scissors. Shoot.

[Emily Jashinsky]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Empathy is our best policy. Hey guys. Sagar and Krystal here.

[Krystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

[Sagar Enjeti]

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

[Krystal Ball]

So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see [e-mail] hello everybody. We are officially done with the first joint address slash State of the Union. According to our research, if it was a State of the Union, which can we all agree it is, it would be the longest State of the Union ever delivered by an American president, beating significantly President Clinton's record in the year 2000, which was an hour and 28 minutes. This one by my Rough back of the napkin math is roughly around an hour and 43. And yeah, it was long. It was a long one.

[Krystal Ball]

Could have used an edit.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Could have used, you know, could have used a few more kind of reminded, remember? God, I'm trying to think of the first one of the first ones we covered here where Biden was just like literally a laundry list. I think we were all watching.

[Krystal Ball]

It's very common.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's very common. Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, let's not say like constituencies, they got to check the box on whatever. But yeah, it needed a good edit.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It was long. It was long. So that's. So we're trying to call some of the best takeaways for all of you. I would say the biggest one was no new policy announcement on Ukraine, but there were some significant domestic policy events that definitely bear registration. But the thing is, is that we should probably start with the Democratic protest by Congressman Al Green, who opened the remarks. There was some initial booing that was happening from the Democratic side. Congressman Green was standing for the duration of the first couple minutes before he was kicked out. Anyone want to say anything before we.

[Krystal Ball]

Play this, before we make people subject people to more clips from this very long speech that we just wanted? Let's just get some top of the top of mind thoughts. I mean, to me, the big takeaways were the actually lack of new policy specifics with regard to tariffs in Ukraine in particular, where I think, you know, that's certainly where we perked up and we're listening. Like, is he gonna say, are the tariffs on? Are the tariffs off? Still don't know. Which I think probably indicates that the signaling that they might be rolled back could be the case because he certainly wasn't touting the Canada and Mexico 25% across the board. He was focusing on, oh, we did this with China, with steel. Oh, we're looking at. We're doing these reciprocal tariffs April 2nd. April 2nd, down the road. He mentioned Canada and Mexico, but he did not specifically tout the tariffs that just went into effect. Which if I'm reading in between the lines, I feel like, okay, well, that's probably an indication that Lutnik was right. They are probably rolling back or diminish something. Ukraine, I kind of feel the same way. He talked about the letter that he got from Zelensky that we talked about earlier that is already public. He talked about the desire to make a deal and moving forward. So I think probably the reporting about them continuing to work on this rare earth mineral deal is also probably accurate. Seems like, based on what he's saying, but he did not confirm any of those pieces.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, it is actually kind of surprising that there was no new major initiative either on the tariffs on Ukraine, especially because they were hyping that from news level. A lot of the speech was basically messaging. So I was clocking the time. So statistically most people turn off around 10pm Just they watch the first, like, 30 to 45 minutes. Yeah, the first 30 to 45 minutes. And this was basically just campaign speech. It was like, we won the election. Historic landslide mandate. That's where the Al Green protest and all of that happened. There was a lot of culture war stuff there during that time period. A lot of DEI trans crt, basically all the greatest hits from Trump. We eventually then started to get to the economy, Doge and Social Security, and we're gonna play some of that for you. But any other thoughts? Why don't you guys give us your summary too, before we play on the.

[Ryan Grim]

Terrorist front, at least he described why he was going to do them, like, with, with the Canada and Mexico ones. He's just been telling us they've been ripping us off and we're. We subsidized Canada and that's ridiculous.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He was quite light on those, though.

[Ryan Grim]

He went back to the old school. We're gonna. If you're not a. If you don't have steel, you don't have a country. We're gonna make steel.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Ryan Grim]

And so we're gonna do these targeted tariffs on steel and like, aluminum or like, so at least, like, there was some, like, ethos behind it, like back to the. Oh, that's the thing about tariffs. You're trying to actually build up industry inside the country rather than. We've been suffering through this, like, fiction about these tariffs being fentanyl related.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, he did mention the fentanyl there, too, though.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, he did mention the fentanyl.

[Krystal Ball]

A miniscule amount of it.

[Ryan Grim]

So I can either agree with it or disagree with it.

[Krystal Ball]

Sorry, Ryan.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's gonna get it.

[Krystal Ball]

Sorry. You're gonna live in the ambiguity for.

[Sagar Enjeti]

A while now, Emily.

[Emily Jashinsky]

You know, I think we've spen almost a decade now, always potentially anticipating. I don't mean we so much. I mean the media more broadly. Some new version of Donald Trump, like, he doesn't have to run for reelection now. He felt like he was coasting on these high approval ratings as his administration started. He's got Elon Musk by his side. And what he did was give a very, like, classic Trump rambling riffing Very partisan. He ribbed Pocahontas in front of her face like Elizabeth Warren. He called her Pocahontas during this meeting?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. What did she do? She must have done something.

[Ryan Grim]

Something about the war, like.

[Sagar Enjeti]

No, but did she hold something up?

[Krystal Ball]

Like I'm saying, what was the only. I saw her, like, scrolling on her phone at one point, but I didn't even see her, like, participating in the protest or whatever. But, I mean, I don't know that she necessarily had to do any. He just has, like, animus. He just, you know, whatever. I thought it was funny.

[Emily Jashinsky]

He doesn't change.

[Krystal Ball]

He doesn't change. Yes and no. The style of the speech. Yes. Typical Trump, you know, going through his greatest hits in terms of his grand election victory and, you know, calling Democrats out to their. Like, you would never clap for me, no matter what. You know, putting them on blast like that.

[Ryan Grim]

It's so sad.

[Krystal Ball]

It's so sad. No matter how I did what I did, it wouldn't be enough for you people. And then, you know, at the end, of course, he's got a. He goes back to retell the story of the assassination attempt and how he was saved by God to save the country, which makes me very uncomfortable when people start putting themselves in those sort of messianic terms. But again, classic Trump, Ryan.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Stop that.

[Krystal Ball]

But on the economic policy front, as I'm just listening to the actual policies, this is a fricking Paul Ryan speech. We're talking about deregulation, we're talking about Social Security, we're talking about tax cuts. I mean, it was very. I was like, this is a Koch network policy agenda.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, but with 25% tariffs.

[Krystal Ball]

Now, he did that got. But again, that he's like. I mean, we're not even clear on what that is. But the piece that he frontloaded with was all the just like, standard conventional Republican stuff that he ran so hard against and positioned himself so hard against back in 2015. Now, we all know the record of the actual Trump administration the first time around where their biggest accomplishment was a giant tax cut for the rich. But to me, that combined with. He was trying to get applause lines on, oh, we're gonna get rid of the budget deficit. And then reading down the list of all the wasteful government programs.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Transgender mice.

[Krystal Ball]

Like, the transgender mice. You know, all of those things. Like, that's Fox. I used to do a lot of Fox News hits back in the post, like, 2011 timeframe.

[Emily Jashinsky]

That was the sweet spot.

[Krystal Ball]

And, yeah, it was every day. It was like, oh, my God, they spent $10 per muffin at this conference. Or lobster.

[Sagar Enjeti]

They're always having lobster dinners.

[Krystal Ball]

And so I'm like, this is such a throwback to the Paul Ryan talking points just delivered through a Trump, you know, Trumpian panache.

[Ryan Grim]

All that chaos and all we get is, like, different lies about Social Security. He's out there saying that, like, 160 year olds are getting Social Security.

[Krystal Ball]

And it's like, even Fox News actually debunks that talking point.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Okay, let's save that commentary. So do you want to just do the Social Security thing?

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, let's go ahead and queue up Social Security. Let me see what number.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Number five.

[Krystal Ball]

Number five, guys, if you can cue this up where he starts talking about Social Security and he's reiterating the lies that Elon spread about the people who are supposedly 300 years old or whatever and still getting Social Security. We know none of this is true, but doesn't matter. It's still in the president's speech. If we've got that, let's go ahead and roll it.

[Donald Trump]

We're also identifying shocking levels of incompetence and probable fraud in the Social Security program for our seniors and that our seniors and people that we love rely on. Believe it or not, government databases list 4.7 million Social Security members from people aged 100 to 109 years old.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, make no mistake, when you're setting up, and this is why it was significant that Trump brought it up, when you were bringing this up, you are creating a pretext to cut the program. And again, totally counter to the way Trump has always positioned himself. And he'll use these lies about alleged fraud to justify the cuts. And we already see Doge is gutting the Social Security administration. There's actually a warning from Martin O'Malley, who was previously Social Security administrator, that the system cannot handle that level of cuts and that people should start saving their money in anticipation that the program could face disruption just from not having enough staff. The hotline, people who answer the hotlines are being cut.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Shut the door.

[Krystal Ball]

Offices across the country are being cut. So to me, when the word Social Security came out of his mouth, in the context of, like, there's all this giant fraud, et cetera, et cetera, that is a huge indication of the direction.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That was the most important political moment of the speech to me. I think I said that to you guys at the time. I was like, that is very important. Not only is it Donald Trump endorsing the Elon strategy around that, but he's taking ownership of what is very likely to be extremely unpopular. And this gets to the way that this will all happen. So it's very unlikely to see a top line across the board cut of Social Security. Right. Passed by the Congress in the next tax bill, even in terms of entitlement reform or whatever. But there may be at least elements to, like, chip away at the program or at the very least, like, reduce its accessibility. Now, currently, regardless, I mean, you've got your hand basically right there on the rail of, like, the most potent political weapon. I mean, I remember being with the four of you guys talking when Biden had that moment where he's like, hey. He's like, okay, we are all agreeing we're not gonna cut Social Security. So the problem that they have is, even if they pursue no cuts, is that even tampering with the program is gonna have tremendous blowback from a lot of people. But last thing on this, they may be able to get around it because they also said during the speech, the no tax on Social Security, which we all won't know, will be extremely popular with a lot of seniors. I mean, how much? I'm thinking if you're 100% reliant on Social Security, like, that's what, probably, what, almost 10, 15, 25% of your income, that's going back to tax. I've said before, I think it's crazy. Like, why does the government give you money if just to take it back? It actually is very inefficient. It doesn't make sense.

[Ryan Grim]

It's the Reagan. The Reagan compromise brought that in.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Which is what? To have income tax on Social Security.

[Ryan Grim]

I didn't know it didn't used to be taxed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, it makes no sense. Like, why would you give you a lump sum of money and then take a portion of it back and expect you to file it, and then we'll take it back 45 days later. Ridiculous.

[Emily Jashinsky]

There's only one interesting thing, other than everything that you guys have said that I noticed on this point is his line about Social Security. As he started this conversation, he. This is slightly new framing from the old Republican talking point. He says, quote, we are also identifying shocking levels of incompetence and probable fraud in the Social Security program our seniors rely on. Which is interesting because Republicans used to just demonize Social Security. And in this, he's trying to frame it as saying, I'm saving our seniors from the fraud that is dragging down Social Security. To Ryan's point about, you're just dressing up the same old talking points about Social Security in different language. That's basically the best example of it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He's.

[Emily Jashinsky]

He's saying we're all of this Tea Party talking points, or all this Tea Party rhetoric, if you tweak it, to say we're doing this to save the program.

[Ryan Grim]

Paul Ryan, too, was saying he was going to save Social Security.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

By privatizing the idea.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He was like, we're going to raise retirement age. Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

But the idea is always. The way it's always framed is, oh, my God, this program is going, that I care so much about is going bankrupt and we have to save it. Like, that's the way it's always framed.

[Ryan Grim]

We've been trying to end since the 1930s.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Krystal Ball]

We really love so much, but we're just really interested in the best interest of this program. That's what these cuts are all about. So. But it is a little bit of a twist on that. But it's not that far from the way that it was portrayed in the Paul Ryan era.

[Sagar Enjeti]

But it's not.

[Emily Jashinsky]

It's not. Yeah, I think that's the thing. Like, overall, it did sound like 2012.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. Look at this point. Anyone who's surprised by that, like, I don't know what it was like, we had a whole first time, didn't we? Like, where all of this went through. He said he won't touch Social Security or Medicare. He probably won't at the top line in the way that Paul Ryan and all those other folks will. This chipping away and all of that. Like, I'm not yet sure how far they're gonna go or if they're really that stupid. Like, are you really so stupid that you would actually ax, what, 75% of the SSA offices or privatize it or whatever? It's like, good luck. See how it happened to George W.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Bush in 2005, a project led by two billionaires.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that's right. I mean, the optics of it would be insane, especially if it happened at the very same time that you passed a massive tax cut and extension for the rich, which they are all on record. They're going to do it. Like, the only question is if they also include the no tax on tips. I will say I do think that the tips and Social Security thing could potentially. I wouldn't say it save them, but make it more of a wash than the last time. 2017 was just so naked in terms of what the actual policy was. But the tips thing, I mean, we all know it's going to be very popular and they're Going to message the hell out of it. And same with the no tax on Social Security. I could see that being like some sort of countervailance and all that, but I mean, look, they're playing with fire. They're playing with the same fire they're playing with under Rick Scott. Like it just never ends.

[Krystal Ball]

I don't know why they're addicted to it. There's also no guarantees that those policies make it in. I mean, it's not spelled out in the Republican budget. And actually the.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, they don't want to do it.

[Krystal Ball]

The numbers as they exist, you know, and what they have said that they're working with in terms of the amount that they've allocated for tax cuts would not be sufficient to include no tax on tips and no tax on, we know, the $4 trillion tax cut. That part is locked in the rest of it. And then you also have to throw in there, the salt tax situation. Yeah, they gotta go to 20% for them as well. And that's. Yeah, that's expensive. So there's also just like no guarantee that any of that actually happens. And like I said, it was not actually in the Republican budget that passed the House that Trump had backed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The ideal is we all just stopped all this fakery on the debt and we just include all those things, you know, so I can actually put some of the good stuff in there at the very least.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

So we talked about Social Security. We should definitely talk about Doge. Yeah, so we've got number four guys, if you could cue that up. So Elon got a huge shout out from Donald Trump. Donald Trump may have slipped up a little bit here though, because in this acknowledgment, he not only acknowledges Elon, he actually says Elon is the head of Doge, which is the opposite of what his government is currently arguing in court. But nonetheless, it was important because was.

[Krystal Ball]

Amy Gleason there to get her round of applause?

[Sagar Enjeti]

She's in South America. She's in South America.

[Krystal Ball]

She's the one they're claiming is in charge of Joe.

[Ryan Grim]

She's 175 years old.

[Sagar Enjeti]

No, she's a 300. She's a 326 year old woman in South America. So Elon got a shout out. This was important. Just for, I mean, look like MAGA is now like equals. Elon. And you really see this where Trump acknowledges him. He gets the entire Republican Party. The optics of this are wild. Who are on the floor of the House of Representatives to look up and to clap at Elon as Elon stands. He did wear a suit though, so apparently the guy does owe one. Number four guys, let's take a listen.

[Donald Trump]

And to that end, I have created the brand new Department of Government Efficiency. GoJ, perhaps you've heard of it perhaps, which is headed by Elon Musk, who is in the gallery tonight.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So there you go. Not only a huge Elon shout out, but then subsequently talking about. There was a good. I would say, what do you guys think, like five, seven minute period of just listing Doge stuff. That's where the transmice thing comes from. So that I thought was pretty important just in terms of not only not backing away from Doge, openly endorsing it, making Elon a central part of the State of the Union. Talking here about the Social Security. So on the economic front, this is the one where they don't yet seem to sense what they perceive, that they perceive any danger. I think the only sign of it maybe is on the egg price line that he did deliver. Yeah, that's all.

[Krystal Ball]

I really saw how he kind of opened the economic piece. But yeah, I was just trying to look back up the tweet, but Portnoy had tweeted something about like Trump had a line that was, you know, we'll no longer be ruled by unelected bureaucrats. And Portnoy. Right. Really was like, well, that's kind of a tough thing to make.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Did he really?

[Krystal Ball]

When Elon is out there running the entire government as co president. So Dave Portnoy's that is ruled by unelected bureaucrats. Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Why Dave's mad is because there's a crypto recession right now. He's got shit coins he still needs to sell.

[Krystal Ball]

To the point he's working. He's working through some things. But still interesting to see the, the Portnoy response there.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's true.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, listen, it's. This is the most significant difference between Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0 is Elon. And you see it in the way that Trump has shifted his ideology, man. Always some of his populist rhetoric and approach was fakery, given the commitment to tax cuts for the rich. But the austerity framing, spending all of these minutes going through these wasteful programs which they frame as fraud. And that always irritates me because it's really just like spending that you don't like. Ryan Grim here is the one who has found the most fraud of anyone.

[Ryan Grim]

I did not get credit from the podium.

[Krystal Ball]

I thought it was outrageous.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I gave you credit.

[Krystal Ball]

We're referring to.

[Ryan Grim]

I wanted it from Trump.

[Krystal Ball]

Ryan, they're the ones that found the $400 million armored Tesla thing that actually was. It looks like they like cooked the books to be like, oh, we could slip this in and no One will notice. Wrong, Ryan Grimm will notice. So I think Jeremy Scahill called it the Department of Grimm Efficiency.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's pretty good. I like it.

[Krystal Ball]

I like that pretty well.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Department of Grim Fish.

[Krystal Ball]

Good.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I doubt that's a Doge I could get behind.

[Krystal Ball]

Absolutely.

[Ryan Grim]

He should have been like. And for $400 million armored Teslas. Who needs an armored Tesla over us? Keep up and lose an axle.

[Krystal Ball]

You could have just set electric vehicles.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

And then it would be like, you know, very limb coded.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I like that.

[Krystal Ball]

Get away with it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

All right, we have the egg price, guys. Number three. Can you cue that up? So this was an important line for Trump. It's kind of how it began, the economic section, but it was an acknowledgement of being elected with a mandate on inflation and trying to address it. So let's go ahead and put it up there on the screen and play it for everyone, just to give everyone a taste.

[Donald Trump]

Joe Biden especially let the price of eggs get out of control. The egg price is out of control and we're working hard to get it back down. Secretary, do a good job on that. You inherited a total mess from the previous administration. Do a.

[Sagar Enjeti]

All right, so you could also see some of the Democrats that were leaving there with the resist T shirts that were on.

[Krystal Ball]

I think that was. I think that was Jasmine Crockett.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, it was. Do we want to clown on some of the Democrats? What do you think?

[Krystal Ball]

Well, first clown. First let me clown. Let's clown on the egg thing. Okay. Well, it's just, I mean, hard to really make this case on a day when you announce 25% across the board tariffs with Canada and Mexico. And he has said that he does not really think that inflation is the reason that people voted for him. And that has certainly been reflect in the lack of any sort of an approach to dealing with inflation. And so to me, it was really noteworthy that this was kind of the first. He did a bunch of culture war stuff and a lot of, like, patting himself on the back for his election victory and trying to own the libs and of the Dems of whatever. And then the first economic piece he gets to is eggs. So it did indicate to me, like, okay, the administration, whoever wrote the speech and Trump himself, feel like they've got a bit of a problem here. And the polls have reflected that. If you ask people, do you feel like they are doing enough on prices? Pretty overwhelmingly, people are like, no, I do not feel like they're doing enough on prices. And that is one of the political challenges and warning signs for them also, as we played in that Harry Enton thought before we got into this, his economic numbers in terms of the approval of his handling of the economy are really low. And that's always been a strong suit for him. So I do feel like they were trying to play a little bit of cleanup on the egg crisis thing, blame it on Biden, say, well, I promise we're working really hard on it, et cetera. And that was noteworthy to me.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, it could work for now. Like I said, you know, you have a little bit of Runway, but after two, three months, like, you know, the Runway's gonna be over. Especially if they feel all this Doge stuff. This is my greatest. I mean, I still can't get away from this. It's almost 50 days in to the Trump administration, almost halfway of the first hundred days. The most consequential part and what it's just been Doge Elon, like there's been almost nothing else. I haven't even seen deportation take Matt, you know, like that was I saw, I think it was Joe Weisenthal said that he's like. The only thing that's really surprised me, other than Doge, is the fact that deportation has not taken such a center stage. Like they've had Tom Homan on. They've had a few like high profile.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, Christie's been out there in the jacket.

[Sagar Enjeti]

They're trying to, you know, I was watching Fox News at home. Not by choice. Cause the whole Ukraine thing, I was trying to watch it live and I got an ad from Kirsten telling illegal immigrants to go home. I'm like, are they watching Fox News? I was like, what is this for?

[Krystal Ball]

There's some waste that they can cut. They spend millions.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I was shocked by it. I was like, this is like the most inefficient use of money. These are a bunch of like 70 year old white boomers who are watching this right now during daytime Fox as well.

[Ryan Grim]

So anyway, he did the Guantanamo things because it's a spectacle.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. But he could get the numbers right.

[Ryan Grim]

So he needs a spectacle.

[Sagar Enjeti]

But that's my point on that, is that even with that, I mean, as far as I know, all of that hasn't been like a particularly large number. It had. They haven't necessarily been prioritizing criminals as opposed to like just whoever they happen to round up. There's never been any like transparency around it. They haven't released the daily figures the way that they have. Instead, they're trying to make these flash like spectacle things. Like you guys are Saying, but like empirically, I mean, you can just look at the number and you can say this is not impressive whatsoever. I mean, look, you know, give credit where due, I guess on the border crossings, but that's not the same thing as opposed to kind of what was promised. So if you look at, you know, on the inflation, on the immigration point, where the two things I would say is probably the most responsible for getting him elected, you have not seen the vast majority of the energy getting focused on that he is hoping. And this speech really did crystallize a lot of like the Trump victory to me is, look, I mean he, if you listen to the first 45 minutes of this, which statistically most people are watching, what was it? It was culture war all day long. Right.

[Krystal Ball]

Gulf mad.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He believes it wasn't just that it was.

[Krystal Ball]

But it was that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, it was that, but it was like trans. It was the greatest hit like of all the Republican culture world.

[Krystal Ball]

It was our country will be woke no longer.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There you go. Our country will be woke also.

[Krystal Ball]

Free speech is back on a day that he, you know, when they're announcing.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Their crackdown that requires people to actually read the news.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Interestingly, he went on vaccines as well. Like, this was a lot of culture war talking points. He was actually talking about how I can pull this up here.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The autism book. Yeah, well, he did it. He didn't say that.

[Krystal Ball]

Bobby Kennedy's looking into.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We're going to find out why and.

[Ryan Grim]

Bobby Kennedy's going to figure out.

[Krystal Ball]

Bobby Kennedy's looking into.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You should look into.

[Emily Jashinsky]

He said. This is the quote he said.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We said, not at the end, but that was much later on. But. Right.

[Emily Jashinsky]

But it's like the culture war thing. He said. Since 1975, rates of child cancer have increased more than 40%. Reversing this trend is one of the top priorities of our new presidential commission to make America healthy again, chaired by new secretary of HHS RFK Jr. Our goal is to get toxins out of our environment, poisons out of our food supply, and keep our children healthy and strong. As an example, not long ago, 1 in 10,000 children had autism. Now it's 1 in 36.

[Krystal Ball]

So the first part of that makes me so irritated because first of all, obviously they just cut a bunch of funding for research, including into, you know, cancer. And in addition, they have spent the first period in office rolling back some of the restrictions on chemicals like pfas. So yeah, it's just so, I don't know, to me, it's just so cynical.

[Emily Jashinsky]

He ended that section of his speech by saying something is wrong, and we're gonna find out what it is.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So, I mean, something is wrong.

[Ryan Grim]

Something's definitely wrong.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's true.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

The context of that is RFK Juniors looking into the vaccines.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I don't.

[Ryan Grim]

He has ideas.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I didn't. I mean, I. If you wanted that. If you want that, you could take that from it, But I don't know. I didn't see it necessarily.

[Ryan Grim]

That's good signaling.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I mean, he was obviously signaling it. If he. Like, for the people who want to hear that. But it's also, like, on an empirical basis, when people hear that, they'll go, oh, that's crazy. I'm not against that. Right.

[Emily Jashinsky]

But it's red meat.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I mean, my point around it all was, I was like, he believes that that cult is the most important reason why won. To me, there's no other reason why you would start 45 minutes of your speech off this way. It's obvious. So he thinks that this alone is gonna be enough to coast him. And by the way, I think he could be right. I mean, there's a huge. The whole MAGA universe online and all this, all the transgender. Like the woman who's standing up, who was hit by a woman by the volleyball thing like that. You know, that's what they live for. Right. Like, that's. That's the reason Ben Shapiro and Matt Walsh are in the audience.

[Emily Jashinsky]

But it's also to get a contrast with Democrats not applauding those lines. It's very intense.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I know. And that's like the big.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I think it's powerful with Peyton McNabb.

[Krystal Ball]

I read it a little different. You won't be surprised to hear. I mean, listen, it's the exact thing that Democrats do when they want to cover for their lack of a agenda that delivers for working class people. They fix it on identity and cultural issues. And it's. It's the same shit. It's just from Trump, because people aren't happy with how the economy is going. They feel that it's getting worse. And it already wasn't great. Obviously, today, the stock market fell off a cliff, and you've got, as we were saying before, the consumer sentiment, consumer spending down, and there's warnings in the manufacturing sector. You've got this warning from the Atlanta Fed. People are not satisfied with that direction. And he really isn't offering anything in the near term that you can point to. I mean, maybe no tax on tips, maybe. But. So instead, what do you do? You usher in an agenda that's been really good for people like Elon Musk and other oligarchs by saying, this is about dei. This is about Woke. Woke is over. Don't you feel great? So that's how I read the reason why it was front loaded with culture war. The same reason that Democrats who weren't delivering for working class people also would lean into culture war.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I'm not disagreeing with the word you're saying, but, I mean, I do think it's still obviously very politically powerful. Unfortunately, this is the hold that Trump has. Oh, yeah, guys, please remind me on a future show. A listener of our show who works for the DOD who voted for Trump, sent me a very long email about why he voted for Republicans, even though he works within the DOD and his reasoning. It reminds me of all this because it was for cultural reasons. Specifically talking about whenever, if you'll recall, I made that comment, I was like, I don't. I was like, anyone who voted for the federal voted for Trump and he worked for the federal government. I was like, I don't really know what to tell you. I was like, you're kind of an idiot if you didn't think that something like this was gonna happen to me. He sent me a very long justification for why he did it. I actually think it bears discussion with all of us, but that's a tease for the future.

[Krystal Ball]

Does he regret it or no? Are you still like, yeah, I did the right thing?

[Sagar Enjeti]

No, he does not regret it. He's voted for Trump for three times. He voted for Trump because Democrats could not define what a woman is. But he is upset about the Doge cuts. And in the logic of the email, it really hit home for me why I still think that this is very politically strong territory for Trump. Now, how long he can ride on it, I have no idea. Right. Well, because America, they'll give you the Runway and this will keep people feeling as if things are very different. It's still only a month or so into the new administration, but how long until it gets old? And that's when I think it starts to become a problem.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And this is what. I don't think Republicans are doing this on purpose, but I do think one of the big lessons for Democrats should be that if you are asked to choose between Trump and Republicans, red meat, culture warfare and Democrats, for many voters, Republicans still come out on top, even if they don't like the way that Donald Trump talks.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Sans abortion. 100%.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah. And. Yeah, exactly. And so that's where I know we're going to talk about Al Green. We teased it a little bit earlier and the like resist T shirt walkout. The paddle signs that looked like as some people were joking Fogo de Chao bring me my meat signs.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's the green, you know.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And so again for a lot of voters the Democrats are like, it's. I get it. Like Trump. Trump went for an hour and 40 minutes in extremely partisan speech and said some wild stuff and called the Senator Pocahontas to her face. But then they look at the Democrats, they're like, you guys deserve it.

[Krystal Ball]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Happy anniversary.

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[Sagar Enjeti]

So let's start with the Al Green thing. What is that, number one. So this was the first Democratic protest. I thought there were going to be a lot more. Actually. I was surprised that there won't.

[Krystal Ball]

Got off to a raucous start.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, they got off to a very raucous start and then became extremely lame. So Al Green here being escorted out of the House chamber. He was literally shaking his cane at Donald Trump. Not since Charles Sumner. Right, Ryan? Not since Charles Sumner has a cane so loudly been felt on the floor of the United States Congress. Let's take a listen. Finding that members continue to engage in willful and concerted disruption of proper decorum, the chair now directs the sergeant at.

[Ryan Grim]

Arms to restore order.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Remove this gentleman from the chamber. All right, so that was Al Green, Congressman, getting escorted out. He said he was shouting at him, you have no mandate to cut Medicaid. Let's also put number two.

[Krystal Ball]

Is that what he was saying?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Apparently that's what he claims. He checks out.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Apparently people only heard you have no mandate. Let's go to the number two, please. The screenshot. Can you guys put that up while I talk? This is the one that's going pretty viral when people are saying it's lame. Some of the. What are these, like, placards? What would you call it? They're being held up signs.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Bingo signs.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Small round bingo like signs being held up by Democrats. Include Musk steals. That's a lie. That's from Rashida Tlaib. She has a whiteboard. False. False. Musk steals. Save Medicaid. Musk steals. Some false. And that going.

[Emily Jashinsky]

They should have all said save Medicaid. Seriously.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I agree. I was like, save Medicaid. If that is probably the most powerful one. You Crystal sent this from the Daily Show. Fun fact. Democrats are wearing pink tonight as a symbolic protest against people who want them to do something meaningful. So that is pretty damn funny.

[Krystal Ball]

They were protesting me.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

It's so personal.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, clearly, like, they are getting the message that people want them to do more, but they just have no idea what that actually looks like. I will say, I thought Ro Khanna and Tim Walls had a really good idea, which is all these Republicans are like, oh, we're not gonna do town halls anymore? And they're like, okay, we'll come to your district, we'll do a town hall.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, that is smart deal.

[Krystal Ball]

You know, that's smart. And I think we'll play really well and, you know, put pressure on Republicans, like, oh, shit, this guy's doing a town hall in my district. I guess I need to show up or at least sit. It's sort of shameful to them to not show up. Bernie Sanders, obviously. He's also, I think, delivering a response along with Alyssa Slotkin.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, she's speaking right now. She's speaking right now. I'm monitoring the quotes.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, The Deep State is responding via Alyssa Slotin.

[Sagar Enjeti]

She currently says Reagan is rolling in his grave.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Is she wearing pink?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Affirmatively talking about Reagan. Let's see what else here.

[Krystal Ball]

But I also think, you know, the Bernie Sanders oligarchy tour, going to specifically swing Republican districts where, you know, the Republican House, they need every single vote to be able to do anything. And so he's recognized that as a pressure point. I think that's also very intelligent. But, yeah, I mean, these things just read as like, sort of the only.

[Ryan Grim]

Indication that Democrats would be getting the message would be if they'd have said, you know what, Bernie, you do the response. Yes, because that would at least be surprising to people.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So instead they picked a CIA spook from Michigan who actually says, no guardrails on what they do. We need more efficient government. You wanna cut waste, I'll help you do it. But change doesn't need to be chaotic or make us less safe.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, I mean, she also. She's one of the ones that. She's voted for a bunch of Trump picks. She voted for the Lake and Riley act. Like, you know, that's who she is. And it also speaks to. Okay. Not just would it indicate they're getting it from a sort of, like, policy perspective if they had Bernie Sanders respond. But people would actually watch, right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

Bernie is racking up and it would go viral. Tens of millions of views on everything he does. I mean, he is an absolute TikTok sensation. And these town halls were getting insane views. Like, everything he says and does is going viral. So why wouldn't you be like, maybe that guy should be the one. Or Roe, you know, Or Roe. Or listen, the whole thing about giving the Oversight Ranking Committee member to Gerry Connolly instead of aoc, like, what are you thinking? One of these people knows how to communicate and understands the attention economy and is on it and understands the online, like, attention ecosystem.

[Emily Jashinsky]

But the other one earned it. Crystal.

[Krystal Ball]

And the other one, he's been waiting for this.

[Emily Jashinsky]

You know, it's in line, follow the rules.

[Krystal Ball]

It's just total, total insanity.

[Sagar Enjeti]

If the Dems get a Tea Party. How big was a Tea party blowout in 2010? It was like 55.

[Krystal Ball]

They picked up like 60 something.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It was like it was genuine. If that happened to the Dems, would that happen like the Jerry Connolly stuff still happened? I mean, would Hakeem like get to keep his seat?

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, Hakeem is.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Oh, bro.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Wait. The Democrats, if they get a Republican style Tea Party blowout, win in the House of Representatives and Democrats, Democrats take control.

[Ryan Grim]

I mean, Hakeem is.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So you think he'll stay even though they don't like him? Oh yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I don't know.

[Krystal Ball]

Depends on the cause.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Remember the Tea Party got rid of baby.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. It depends on the kind of characters who win. And it depends on if that Dem Tea Party also consists of not just winning in Republican seats, but primarying. Oh, that's a really good people that they're discussed with.

[Emily Jashinsky]

That's true.

[Krystal Ball]

Oh, that's great. And I've mentioned this before, but I went back and looked at the Tea Party era polling for Republican based voters, how they felt about Republican congressional leaders and it is very similar to the way that Democratic voters feel right now about Democratic leaders. Democratic leaders are underwater by like nine points in the last poll that we saw. This is so different from 2016. You guys know Pelosi shift like they felt, oh, these people are doing the thing we want them to do. These are our heroes, et cetera. It is not like that anymore. And so, you know, if you had some of these people who have been the most disappointing getting primaried and you have a more sort of like forceful radical group that comes in that doesn't owe their seats to the party establishment, then you could end up with some different dynamics. And I think the other thing that opens up that possibility is that liberals are also completely disenchanted with their media outlets. And so that creates a really different dynamic as well. So there's a lot of ifs here about how this will all go down, but I will say I think the indications are very much in the direction of you're probably going to have a blowout year, blue wave year for Democrats. That's just if you look at history and backlash to parties that have complete power. If you look at we're so early and there's already this level of sentiment and Republicans who are hiding and worried And Elon is just doing his thing and they're going after Social Security and the economy is on the brink. I think you could be setting up quite a catastrophe for the Republican Party.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It could be peaking in terms, I mean, it could phase out. Cause the Tea party peaked in what, 09? Right around nine months in. That's when the Tea Party. That's when the Obamacare stuff was, really happened. And then it especially was right there at the tail of 09 into 10 and then going into the midterm election.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Well, I guess, I mean, I would say maybe, honestly, I would put it through the Senate. What did Obama call it? The route or whatever he said in 2014.

[Krystal Ball]

Shellacking.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, shellacking in 2014. I would extend it through that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. No, no, no, absolutely. I was just thinking in terms of timing. So if the Democratic, whatever, coffee party.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Oh, I see what you mean.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The coffee party peaks like, like 30 days in. It could still, you know, it could still, like, it could still actually phase out or, you know, who knows?

[Ryan Grim]

So much depends on what Trump's policies do to the economy. I think.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I think you're right.

[Ryan Grim]

Because he could back off. He could say, you know what, just kidding on these tariffs. Federal workers are allowed back in with his federal judge. And then he could say, we're gonna fire them all in September. And then he doesn't actually fire them in September because things are struggling then and you get a little downturn and then it comes back up. Or you could get this full on Trump thing where he's like, no, we're really, we're doing some major transition. Like in his speech tonight, he's alluding to real difficulties ahead.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, he said to the farmers, he said, there'll be a little bit of.

[Ryan Grim]

Adjustment, but we're okay with that.

[Krystal Ball]

Which, you know, Elon also promised like hardship, temporary hardship. He's trying to do on the campaign trail.

[Ryan Grim]

He's trying to do a thing that politicians have done many times over the generations. Bring people together in times of hardships that we collectively can then get to a better place. Except he also wants to do it while dismissing, attacking and calling the other half the country a bunch of traitors and losers. So FDR had 60 plus seats in the Senate and one massive mandate. So he could could say, all right.

[Krystal Ball]

We'Re all doing this together.

[Ryan Grim]

We're all doing this together. We're rowing together. And it's just the bankers that are against us. Trump's like, we're all in this together. Except like half the country, the Universities, the doctors, every federal government work, every federal government.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Someone's got to stand up for the.

[Ryan Grim]

University, all the teachers, the Capitol Police. But everyone else, yeah, we're in it. We're in it. I don't know how you do both of those things. Because. Because he wants to ask for shared sacrifice without sharing any common value or.

[Krystal Ball]

Sharing the sacrifice among people like Elon Musk, who are getting just handout after handout.

[Ryan Grim]

Musk wants to be joyful about what he's doing to people rather than read people in and say, this is why we're doing it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I think your point, though, about if they back off after a catastrophic three months, or not even catastrophic, bad three months. I mean, that's long enough time, that's almost, what, several months to go to the midterms. And so you could at least see some sort of change. The problem is, is that right now, we have no indication that that's going to happen.

[Ryan Grim]

He's going to get his.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Elon's getting his shout out of the State of the Union. Doge is getting, you know, lists getting read off. You've got the Social Security fraud thing, and we're going whole hog on the tariffs. So it's like, okay, well, that. That's all we can really go off right now. Yeah, the tax cut. That's the thing. The tax is in a separate category. That's going to happen. Happen. That's not changing at all.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Oh, I see.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The other stuff might change.

[Krystal Ball]

Likely Medicaid cuts, you know, and in.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The same way that Social Security actually.

[Ryan Grim]

Do flub some Social Security checks, like.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, people will lose it. I agree with you. Yeah. And they should lose it. That's, that's, that's. That's crazy.

[Krystal Ball]

They're flirting with that. I mean, flirting with that. They're flirting with another plane crash that really can be laid.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, I left that out. You're exactly right. Which is that if there's a major natural disaster, if there's a major hurricane, after they've been cutting all these NOAA things and they can't properly call a Category 4 or a Category 5, and some people die even if it's not their fault, doesn't matter, or they've gutted.

[Krystal Ball]

FEMA and they can't properly respond. Yeah, it's like, you know, responding to a natural disaster, even with the best of government funding levels, is difficult. You've got a potential shutdown coming up. I mean, there's just disaster around every corner and an economy that's already starting to turn South. So I think it would take a lot at this point to recover from the trajectory that they've already set things on and to see Elon there. This is the part that I could not have predicted is how much of the presidency he would see to Elon. I just could not have seen that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, nobody would have. The thing is, it goes against everything that we know about Donald Trump.

[Krystal Ball]

Exactly.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Why would he ever see. I still don't understand it. Why would you ever cede so much, not control? What does Trump care about? Attention, media. Every probably American at this point who's even tangentially aware of the Trump news could tell you about Elon. Could be a good thing, could be a bad thing. Why would you want that? Why would you want your presidency defined by this guy with 15 kids and all this other baggage and weird shit that he does all the time?

[Emily Jashinsky]

He's really tied his brand literally, to one of the most eccentric and polarizing people in the world.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Emily Jashinsky]

And he could be having. He could actually be having Russ vote, like, out there doing Doge.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. You know what I mean? It would not even be a headline. It would be. First of all, it would be done properly. Second of all, it would be done or at the very least, like, legally or, you know, in terms of. It would be. It would be much more within the line of, like, traditional Washington process. And they could fight it out and in the institutions and the norms, like. And I mean, it seems to be. That seems why Vivek ultimately left Dohs was really over a beef on something like this, his white people, Tweed aside. Yeah. Just putting it together. I mean, that's just the most shocking part about all of this is like, he's playing with fire. And I think that's a theme that I've really come away from. This State of the Union. I think there was a ton of red meat. If you're maga, you'll love it. Of course you're gonna love it. You're gonna love anything the guy says. There's lots of culture war stuff and all of that. But, you know, for us, like, when we look at the dangers of natural disaster, Social Security, economic problems and then just chaotic nature, people feeling as if things are not in control. Those are all very, very dangerous places to be.

[Krystal Ball]

I also think that the amount of gutting of, like, white collar police that they've done is a risk as like, gutting the CFPB and gutting the SEC enforcement. I mean, you've just got. It's such, like, outright corrupt. You guys see A story about people paying a million or $5 million to have.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, 5 million. $5 million to have a one on one dinner with Trump.

[Krystal Ball]

With Trump, yeah. Like just.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's another thing. He doesn't even need the money.

[Emily Jashinsky]

It's for a campaign fund. Not the meme coin.

[Sagar Enjeti]

No, but it's for. No, it's not personal. It's to a campaign fund. Why do you need $5 million for a campaign fund?

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, you've got that, you've got the crypto dude who gave him, you know, $75 million into his meme coin and then, oh, SEC drop enforcement. And so when you put all of these together, it's like this is just like Elon and his billionaire buddies, like they're just robbing and plundering the government. I mean, the picture adds up. It doesn't take a genius political messenger, even this lame ass Democratic Party can put those pieces together to say like, this administration is about the rich. But to go back to the Trump and Elon point, like even just to see the spotlight of his State of the Union address, I know, for standing ovation to Elon, I don't think any of us could have anticipated that. And it really does ask some questions about like, what the hell is going on here? Does he care? Is there some sort of a deal? What has made it so that he's just really ceded his previous ideological positioning to Elon and the most prominent, most public parts of his entire government administration to Elon?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

And to your point about immigration, like, I'm glad he's not making good on those particular promises.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. But it'd be nice.

[Krystal Ball]

Deportation levels are the same as Joe Biden are actually lower than Joe Biden golden visa. And that was the part that, you know, in terms of one of the promises to working class people, again, I don't. This isn't accurate in my view. And I don't think that a mass deportation would help. I think that would further hurt the economy. But that was like the pledge to working class people was that this is the thing that's really going to help you. And because it's not a priority of Elon, it's the part that's actually not really getting done. Again, I'm glad about that. But it is noteworthy to me that the part that has been so central to Trump but is not really particularly priority to Elon, outside of him currying favor with maga, that part is kind of fallen by the wayside.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right on top of the golden visa thing, which is like a Silicon Valley wet dream where they get to just buy their citizenship.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah. And H1B, which he sided with Elon.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And he even mentioned that in, in this. He's actually trying to fuse Golden Visa with. He's trying to fuse golden visa with the H1B program. If you heard there, it's like, at any of these universities, Facebook can pay $5 million for. It's like, yeah, Facebook can pay $5 million for a coder. Okay.

[Ryan Grim]

But the whole point is less or.

[Sagar Enjeti]

They'Ll keep the H1B census. That's like. That made you think meme.

[Krystal Ball]

Anyway.

[Sagar Enjeti]

All right, we've been talking for long enough. You guys got any last things you want to say?

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, actually, all I was going to say. And Democrats were sitting there with their stupid paddle signs. And so, I mean, I don't disagree with everything that we've all said. I just think the big takeaway, to the extent that Americans pay attention to this, I think Donald Trump successfully baited Democrats into a complete public relations disaster for themselves.

[Ryan Grim]

Disaster. They like.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah, they're not the center of the.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Show here waving a cane.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I wouldn't say it's a disaster. I don't know. I think I disagree on that.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Nicole Wallace is already saying, that little kid DJ was like the highlight. Human Republicans, Democrats, all find a good human story in every state of the union. This was the one from that he's already saying, Bush's spokesperson, Nicole Wallace. Yeah, Nicole Wallace. She's already out on the MSNBC airwave saying, I hope he has a long life as a law enforcement officer, but I hope he never has to defend the United States Capitol against Donald Trump supporters. And if he does, I hope he isn't one of the six who lose his life to suicide.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I don't know. I just, you know, it's like, I, I, I don't disagree that it's cringe, but I wouldn't call it a relationship.

[Krystal Ball]

They're not this, I mean, the memes are, they're not the center of the evening.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I think, like most, I mean.

[Krystal Ball]

I would say there is, I don't know.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I think it was so bad that those, I think those optics were so bad with them, with the paddle signs. They were just like perfect meme fodder. I think that was so, so bad. That idea was so rad.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I don't know.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Al Green waving the cane and the paddle signs. I think it was so bad that it will, A lot of people will see that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I think you could be right. I see a lot of right Wing like, oh, they didn't even clap for. This is not that I'm not concerned about. I'm like, are people really watching this? Clapping Like, I just don't think so. No. And also, it was a 100 minute speech. It's long. Yeah.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I didn't think any of this.

[Sagar Enjeti]

How many people are watching?

[Krystal Ball]

Here's one other thing that I would point to, Emily, as I was looking at the, some of the polling around this and the approval rating of like Democrats and the Democratic Party and congressional Democrats is in the tank.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Krystal Ball]

And yet when you ask people who do you prefer on a generic congressional ballot? Democrats, what's the Republican price range? The latest one was by five. Which is significant.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, which is significant.

[Krystal Ball]

I mean, listen, you take them with a grain of salt, whatever, right. But you shouldn't look at the fact that their approval, like when people are like, do you like these people? And they're like, no, but do you like them better than these other people? They're like, yeah, kind of.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

I think it's a big deal. And that is a natural ebb and flow to politics. But also Republicans are truly enacting an agenda and Trump in particular, that is really unpopular. I mean, the Greenland stuff is unpopular, Gaza is unpopular. Even the Gulf of America thing, which I thought people might eat up, even that's unpopular.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Krystal Ball]

It hasn't ended a lot of these pieces and Doge is unpopular and Elon's unpopular and cutting stone Social Security and cutting Medicaid and giving taxes, like all of these things are really, really unpopular. And so when you put that together and it's like, hey, do you want maybe a check on that? Even if these people are kind of lame, they're like, yeah, probably not to mention Democrats have the benefit now of the coalition that previously used to benefit Republicans in midterms, which is their people fricking show up.

[Emily Jashinsky]

Yeah, that's true.

[Krystal Ball]

In a midterm election, that matters a lot. So that's why I listen to lock and have between now and then, blah, blah, blah, caveat, et cetera. But I would, I think we're probably headed in the direction of a major political direction. Even if the Democrats continue to be.

[Ryan Grim]

Frickin lame, if Trump does blow things up, then people will remember, oh yeah, they shook the cane at him. They didn't like.

[Krystal Ball]

You know, what they were right about with those paddles. They were right. They were vindicated.

[Emily Jashinsky]

I genuinely think that state of the unions don't make a big difference. I should, I should have prefaced it with that anyway, in terms of, like, electoral outcomes.

[Krystal Ball]

They don't.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Although, again, I don't know why people love the State of the Union. Like, people watch it. It's always the only political event in the top 100 newscast or broadcast of.

[Krystal Ball]

The entire country, really, honestly. So it's boring. No.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

People like us who watch politics, like, the debates are way more important. You know, stuff like that. Like, the debates, they're fun.

[Krystal Ball]

And there's Spike.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, obviously they're fun.

[Krystal Ball]

There's even just a regular old Trump presser. Like, a lot more.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, yeah, there's way more shit.

[Krystal Ball]

A lot more Riz than that actually gonna happen.

[Sagar Enjeti]

People like the show.

[Ryan Grim]

So what? This being a country, Right?

[Krystal Ball]

That's true.

[Ryan Grim]

That's aspiration for this being a real country.

[Krystal Ball]

Like, this is a serious thing. I need to tune in and hear what my presentation.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You're right. I should take my scolding away. Everyone should keep watching if nonetheless, just because we always cover it. Rituals are always a fun thing that we enjoy doing here. It's an annual tradition. Ryan and I will be doing a special show for everybody tomorrow that will be dropping somewhere around midday. And then Chris and I will be back for a normal show on Thursday. So we will see you guys.

[Ryan Grim]

We're also gonna have, by the way, Adam Hamoway. Very briefly. He was Bonnie Watson, Coleman's guest at the State of the Union. She'll join as well. She's a Democrat from New Jersey. He's the doctor who saved Tammy Duckworth's life and was then stuck in Gaza twice. So he was in the audience to see what he thought about that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Awesome. All right.

[Krystal Ball]

Not a lot.

[Ryan Grim]

He's on before you get on.

[Krystal Ball]

Not a lot on the Middle east in the West. Looking forward to it, really.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Zero. Just the hostages.

[Krystal Ball]

He's tirelessly working.

[Ryan Grim]

Working tirelessly.

[Krystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Working, Working tirelessly. Working tirelessly. We need to retire that one from Washington. All right, we'll see you guys later.

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