← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
3/9/26: Oil Apocalypse, New Ayatollah Chosen, Jeff Sachs Dire Warning, Lindsey Graham Coached Bibi On Convincing Trump
01:06:21
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- [00:00]
Krystal Ball
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Saagar Enjeti
Guaranteed Human hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's Stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store wide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Oreo, Haagen, Dazs, Charmin, Tide, Sparkling Ice, Reese's and Special K. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pickup or delivery restrictions apply. See website for terms and conditions.
- [00:34]
Krystal Ball
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- [01:34]
Saagar Enjeti
hey guys, Sager and Crystal here.
- [01:36]
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:43]
Saagar Enjeti
This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
- [01:49]
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
- [02:00]
Saagar Enjeti
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com turning now to oil, we're going to be joined in a second by Rory Johnson. He's an excellent oil analyst, but we do have to show you some absolutely apocalyptic images coming out of Tehran. Let's go and put these up here on the screen. So we can show all of you. The first here is some of the destruction. This is an Iranian reporter standing in front of an oil flow facility in the middle of Tehran, one of the largest facilities which supplies the entire city. These are reportedly Israeli airstrikes which not only struck the facility, but these black clouds started coming all the way up into the sky. And authorities there in Tehran are now reporting risks of acid rain, black clouds and smoke across the entire city. So you can see that the entire thing was on fire. There were storm drains from which oil was actually flowing into civilian infrastructure that remained on fire. I mean, literally out of the scene of a movie. We also have this video from a CNN reporter who is on the ground in Tehran actually showing the raining oil on top of everything in the surrounding vicinity. Let's take a listen. I want to show you something else because it's also raining, but you can see that the rain, the rain water is actually black, also saturated, it appears, with oil. And then if we look over there, you can see that the water that's running down here also is black. So that's what's coming down this morning, this sort of oil filled rain that we have right now on the Iranian capital after the strikes took place, oil filled rain. And of course that was immediately responded to by the Iranians who are targeting a lot of oil facilities across the region. So to get into all of that, where the price of oil will go and where the markets stand. As of right now, we're going to welcome Roy Johnston. He is an independent oil analyst. He's going to join the show now. Joining us now, as I said, is Roy Johnston. He is the founder of CommodityContext.com and he's a longtime friend of the show. Rory, thanks for joining us.
- [04:07]
Rory Johnston
Thanks for having me.
- [04:08]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, not under the best circumstances, unfortunately. Been following your work quite a bit. Independent oil analyst and has really forecasted things with a very honest view. And so we want to start with Donald Trump's first truth social and reaction to crude oil futures going over $100 per barrel. Let's put it up here. He says short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay. Only fools would think differently. So Rory, are you amongst those fools who think differently here about the price of oil and where do you see things right now?
- [04:42]
Rory Johnston
I'm definitely among the fools on that one. I think, as I was saying at the time when the president truce, that it's kind of the worst thing he could say in the current moment. I think the important thing to keep in mind here is that the main thing the oil market is attempting to handicap is the duration of this disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and the broader attacks against infrastructure in the region. So when the President says don't worry, it's a short term thing, no biggie, I think the market's concern is that he actually believes that. Because if he actually believes that then, then this could, this could go on much longer than anyone had feared. I mean, going into this, I did not think there was any chance. I didn't ever thought I would see this in my career. This is the largest scale disruption of energy systems at least since the 1970s. And potentially if this goes on much longer, potentially the longest in history, you know, the largest in history. So if this continues going on and the President's statements make it seem like this is all under control. This is absolutely not under control. This is massive and prices are exploding and the longer this goes on, the worse it's going to get.
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Krystal Ball
How bad could it get?
- [05:53]
Rory Johnston
I mean, it's one of those, it's one of those shocks where the supply loss is so large that what you need to do is you need to incentivize demand destruction across a whole variety of sectors. Air travel, freight, consumer consumption, Everything needs to go. And you know, when we think about the way this would manifest, basically we have two sides of this. Either the prices rise and the incentives and shipping need to rise to such a level that people begin to risk making the transit through the Strait of Vermouth or the war ends and the strait reopens. Otherwise, if we still have this 20 million barrel a day loss of supply from the coal system. And just to put that in perspective, that is roughly the exact same size of disruption, the size of demand loss that we, that we kind of saw at the peak of COVID demand destruction in March and April of 2020. Yeah, during that period we were all locked in, you know, planes were not in the air. So what we're talking about is, is kind of what price would be needed to replicate the conditions of the bottom of COVID That's the kind of scary part about this. And the way this would play out is, you know, basically we in advanced kind of wealthy countries probably are just going to pay much, much higher prices, the pumpkin. Because those prices will be needed to incentivize those supplies of those fuels remaining in our economies, the rest of the developing world, where they can't afford these imports. This is going to manifest as outright shortages for them. So that's this way. You're already seeing gas lines, you're seeing everything else. This is something that we already, at this stage, we've already had such a massive kind of air bubble in the system of the loss of disruption and exports already. This is already kind of a historic crisis. If this goes on longer, there's no telling how high we could go $200 a barrel. It's very, very easy to just say numbers that are higher because there is no number high enough to incentivize the level of destruction that we would need to see.
- [07:41]
Saagar Enjeti
That's crazy. Let's put C6 up on the screen. This was your analysis. You say, as someone who routinely mocks perma bullish, clickbait oil forecasts, I want to be exceptionally clear. Crude will go to $200 per barrel en route higher unless traffic through the Strait resumes. Not clickbait, rather brutal physics and necessary economic. So to put it into perspective, you know, everybody, not everybody's a barrel expert. What does that mean? What does that mean in terms of, what does that mean in terms of gas prices at the pump? Last time we talked Russia, Ukraine, you thought, you know, potentially $6 a gallon, what does that look like? $200 a barrel.
- [08:18]
Rory Johnston
Yeah. So even as we stand right now today, the price of R Bob gasoline kind of futures are implying that we've already jumped back above $4 a gallon in the US and that is going to stick and continue going higher. So, yeah, five, six dollars a gallon, this is going to be, you know, again, we need to just do something to break the demand cycle and those are the prices it's going to take. What I should note is that while gasoline is going, you're going to mainly feel the loss of, or the oil price spike in that, in the gasoline price. What we're seeing is an even more acute disruption in middle distillate. So those would be your, you know, your diesels, your jet fuels, etc. And part of that is because the Middle east, in addition to being obviously the world's largest kind of single conduit of oil exports or crude oil exports, is also a major supplier of jet fuel, jet fuel to Asia and largely diesel to Europe. And the diesel to Europe replaced the banned imports from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine 2022, which is roughly the last time that the oil market was exploding. And we were talking, you know, the last time I first jumped on this show, and this is the kind of situation we're seeing again, even in the opening salv though of this, what we saw was jet fuel demand in Asia jumped to the equivalent of more than $200 a barrel already. And part of what's crazy here is that the refined products market, particularly in Asia, is going to front run the impact that we're seeing from crude. And that's because, you know, as of a week and a half ago, tankers were still flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. So it takes a month to two months for those tankers to get those their destinations. So it's going to be a month or two until we start to feel the loss of those crude supplies in those global refining systems. But what we are already seeing is that refineries, particularly in Asia, where depend on this feedstock, they're terrified. Their worst case scenario is shutting down. They don't like turning their facilities down. It's very complicated, very expensive, very tough to get them back up and running. So they have preemptively reduced operating levels, let's say from 90% to 65% in order to kind of extend their Runway. But what that's done is it's immediately cut supplies of diesel, jet fuel, etc. To the region. So, you know, this is why the, the products impact is front running what we're even going to see in crude.
- [10:29]
Krystal Ball
So we are obviously much more energy independent than we were in the 70s. Are there tools at the US government's disposal that they could use to help blunt the impact for consumers?
- [10:40]
Rory Johnston
Yeah, so I think the most important and obvious kind of tool in this toolkit is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And we actually saw, I just woke up and saw the, the news that the G7 with the United States is considering a release of strategic stocks through the IEA. Potentially upwards of 300 or 400 million barrels, which would. That's exactly what should be happening right now. It's actually shocking to me that up until this point the Trump administration has so kind of stubbornly refused to entertain the idea of an SPR release. And partly because they tied themselves in so many knots lambasting the Biden administration about the use of the SPR in 2022, which again at that time was a historic crisis. And then because, you know, even, even in the big beautiful bill last year, the Trump administration had attempted to get more money for the SPR to refill because the SPRO is effectively out of money now. The Biden administration had refilled, you know, 60, 70 million barrels, but then they ran out of cash because the rest of the cash had Been remitted to Congress. They need more money to get to fill the spr, and they, they weren't able to get, I think the actual appropriation request dropped from like 1.2 billion to like 118 million. Those are rough numbers. But you know, you had a massive cut in that volume of crude, which is $100 million for refilling crude in the escrow is basically nothing. And we needed a lot more than that. So I think that's the situation we're in right now.
- [12:01]
Saagar Enjeti
So, Rory, what we've seen right now is effective closure of the Straits of Hormuz. I know that there are other pipelines which are operating, however, the Iranians, there's been other, some reporting about potential strikes on those. If we do see shutdown with Aramco also lng, what does that look like for our global energy market? As you're saying, it's just demand destruction. People were just in the developed world. In Africa, it's like, stop driving, you're not going anywhere. Is that what it looks like?
- [12:25]
Rory Johnston
Basically, and I think so. There's important differentiation here. So when we talk about the closure of the Strait of Hermose, that's, you know, these numbers are all over the place. Let's say 20 million barrels, roughly 20% of global supplies travel through the Strait. When those were effectively shuttered, I think of it as like a kicked garden hose, right? So, you know, nothing's coming through. But if it only lasted a day or two, you could just unknown the hose and things just kind of flow back to normal. What we were seeing in the attacks against energy infrastructure in the region, that's even the larger tail risk than the straight, than the closure of the straight itself. You know, if this, the straight closure is like a kinked garden hose, these facility attacks are more like taking a shotgun and then blasting off the faucet to which the hose is attached. Everything in the oil market is repairable, but that's a far larger, longer kind of repair operation. The other thing we've seen beyond that is that the pressure from that, that, you know, kinked hoes has built back up. And the other issue is that a lot of the producers, most notably Iraq and Kuwait, don't have a lot of domestic storage for their, for their crude. So when they can't ship it out, they basically start shutting in production. And what we've already seen is as of yesterday, I haven't checked the numbers yet this morning, as of yesterday, a rocket already shut in forcibly because of the lack of export optionality. They'd already shut in more than 3 million barrels a day, which again, rewinding to 2022, when we would have last spoke, that was the feared loss from Russia was 3 million barrels that we never actually saw. And that feared loss was enough to push oil prices above $120 a barrel. We already have realized that loss in the first week of this crisis in the Gulf.
- [14:02]
Saagar Enjeti
We have a real loss. And I think the question is of what we expect expected loss in 2022, just to put it into context.
- [14:08]
Rory Johnston
Exactly. And we've already lost it. So that can be turned back on, but it can't be turned back on like, you know, flipping a switch. It's going to take weeks, potentially, you know, you know, days, or potentially weeks up to a month. And that is, again, these are massive volumes of crude and the system needs to open itself back up. And at this stage, the market and myself increasingly has no confidence that this, that this conflict is going to end again. I never thought we would get this far. What we'd seen from President Trump up to this stage had been a series ever since, you know, 2019, when he killed General Soleimani. It was quick, sharp. You had kind of almost a symbolic exchange of fire between US Forces and the Iranians. You know, the Iranians would, you know, this was also happened in June of last year, in 2025, during the 12 Day War between Israel and Iran. You would kind of get these kind of feigned attacks that, you know, they weren't the big deal, but, you know, Iran couldn't be seen to just roll over. So it was kind of like, we're going to hit you with a couple of missiles in a warehouse or, you know, a base. But, you know, it's not, it's not a massive thing. And they can kind of just like, okay, that's fine, and we'll, we'll pack up and go away. This time, however, they've gone full bore. You know, Trump has not let up as quickly. It's not been a flashy kind of cinematic event followed by a declaration, declaration of victory, which is, I still think, what he was hoping to achieve here. But the Iranians did not give him that opportunity. And therefore we are now stuck in this kind of prolonged conflict. And the White House very clearly does not have any kind of durable escape plan. And they did not plan for any of these energy contingencies. We hear about things like shipping traffic, war insurance coverage from the Treasury Department. This is stuff that if they were really planning this, they should have had this figured out months ago.
- [15:53]
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
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Rory Johnston
The fact that, the fact that we are just at this now, they're clearly reacting and they're flailing.
- [15:58]
Krystal Ball
I mean, that is part of what is so crazy to me. Like literally anyone, if you say war in the Middle east, the first thing they're going to think of is oil.
- [16:05]
Rory Johnston
Right.
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Krystal Ball
It's like the basic number one of what's going to be impacted if you have some sort of a war anywhere in the Middle East. My last question for you, because I know you got to run, we really appreciate your time, is how does this ripple? We're focused on oil, we're focused on gas pumps, but how does this ripple throughout the entire economy?
- [16:22]
Rory Johnston
Yeah. So I mean, you know, this is going to feel if this continues, much like the kind of supply chain disruptions that we experienced in Covid. We talked about this kind of bullwhip effect that when in Covid we lost all this demand. So supply contracted in and then demand recovered and supply wasn't able to keep up. This is basically we're starting on the second phase of that. We've lost the supply and it's such a large portion of supply that we can't really make it up easily. So you're going to start rationing throughout the economy that's going to force all of these kind of various industries and countries into kind of more zero sum competition where the system's not designed to work like that. So it's going to be really hard to predict the kind of knock on effects here. But if, and again, if the stage goes, all of this is contingent on traffic not resuming through the strait. But if that occurs. What we're talking about is not a global recession. We're talking about upwards of some kind of global depression level event if this occurs. Wow.
- [17:17]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, sobering words. Again, not. Not a alarmist person, a very straight minded independent analyst. We appreciate you as always, Rory. Thank you.
- [17:26]
Rory Johnston
Thanks for having me, guys.
- [17:28]
Saagar Enjeti
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn uneligible items from Activia, General Mills, Nature Valley, A and W, Monster Energy Coffee Mate and Pete's Coffee. Then click the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pickup or delivery restrictions apply. See website for terms and conditions.
- [17:59]
Krystal Ball
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- [18:11]
Rory Johnston
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- [18:11]
Krystal Ball
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- [19:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Good to see you.
- [19:44]
Trita Parsi
Good to be with you guys.
- [19:45]
Krystal Ball
So let's go ahead and put D1 up on the screen. As I mentioned, new Supreme Leader has been chosen. He is the son of the previous Supreme Leader. Tell us about the significance of this and how he may differ from his father.
- [19:58]
Trita Parsi
So let me first start off by saying that very few people on the outside really know much about what's going on in the assembly of expert Shore Hobregon who actually elects the Supreme Leader. And I definitely cannot claim to have any expertise, but from the outside analyzing this and you know, reading the tea leaves over the course of the last couple of years and months, I think it was quite clear that prior to all of this, Mushta Al Khamenei was not a leading candidate. His name was still in there, but there was a Lot of resistance to him, not only from the previous Supreme Leader, but also from others. It seems to me that the killing of his father by Israel, the killing of his mother, his wife and his child, really actually made him much more of a likely successor to the previous Supreme Leader. Particularly also mindful of the fact that Trump came out and said that Khamenei, that Moshe Bahomei would be unacceptable. It's exactly the type of endorsement that I think he needed. Because what the Iranians are trying to do right now with this choice is to signal total and absolute defiance. They chose someone who clearly mindful of the fact that his wife, child, father, mother were killed by Israel, is in no reconciliatory mood. And as a result, I think the signal is very clear. The Iranians are sticking to their guns. They're not going to back down. They're certainly not going to surrender. That's the message they want to get across with his choice. Even though I'm really strongly confident that he was not the leading candidate, had it not been for what just happened.
- [21:41]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, because his father even preached against a hereditary monarchy, because he was pointing out the degeneracy of the previous Shah regime. That's what made it even more shocking. But it's like you said, the fact that Donald Trump himself said that's not somebody we wanna deal with. It seems very clearly like that is the message intended. Foremost is wartime leader, somebody who himself has personally suffered. Father is a martyr in terms of not only religious authority, but in terms of national message to the populace and to the world that they're not backing down.
- [22:13]
Trita Parsi
Yeah. And look, there's not a lot of interviews with him at all, frankly. You know, he has a reputation of being more hardline than his father. I don't know if that's true or not. A lot remains to be seen. Mindful of the fact that he was almost never seen in public before. But if it is so that he is more hardline, and I think unfortunately the regime is going to go in a much more hardline direction now since they're in a war situation. It just further shows that these type of escalations, conflict, et cetera, is exactly the opposite of what you want, if your desire actually is to move Iran in a much more open minded and liberal direction. We're seeing the clear opposite taking place in front of our eyes, in which they just selected a person whose symbolism is to show defiance against the United States and anyone who wants to see reform take place inside of Iran.
- [23:06]
Krystal Ball
What does this selection mean for the likelihood that Iran would actually pursue a nuclear weapon.
- [23:11]
Trita Parsi
Well, we have a scenario in which the fatwa of the Supreme Leader is now essentially gone with this Supreme Leader. That is the main interpretation of these fatwas is that they only last as long as the supreme, the, the Ayatollah who issued them is alive, and then they need to be reissued by someone else. I mean, I don't think it will be particularly early in his agenda to reissue it, and there may be a tremendous amount of pressure on him not to do so because I think, you know, the shift in mood in Iran is very, very clear. There's a lot of argumentation that this was a mistake for them not to build it. I don't necessarily think that the capacity to do so without being detected, et cetera, et cetera, really was there. But I think there's a, there's a strong view in many quarters in Iran that the previous Supreme Leader simply wasn't decisive enough to go in either direction. He didn't build a bomb. And at the same time, he was not willing to do the kind of full scale engagement with the United States to get a deal done because he kept on refusing allowing any Iranian officials to directly speak to Trump, which I think was a mistake. That is now all extremely unlikely to happen. I fear very much that the selection of Khamenei son now means that any exit ramp that potentially was available is even more difficult to materialize. Now. Trump could potentially just choose to declare victory, walk away and say, look, I killed the Supreme Leader, I destroyed so much of their nuclear program, so much of their missile program. The country has been set back 10 years, he said, and just declare victory and leave it. I don't think it would end there because from the standpoint of the Iranians, if that were to happen, they would actually be in a much worse situation compared to the beginning of the war, because the country is destroyed. They can hardly export any oil, they can't get any cash, and no one's going to come in from the outside to rebuild the country. And their pathway towards sanctions relief is essentially blown up. So I don't think that's an acceptable situation for them. I suspect that they actually would continue the war even if Trump pulls out. They would continue to target GCC states, they would continue to target Israel. I think they're going to fight until they get an outcome that they believe also puts them not necessarily in a better position, but in one in which their prospects of getting to a better position is greater, meaning that there is some sort of an arrangement indirectly or directly with the United States when some sanctions relieve, the country can be built up again, they can sell their oil, et cetera, and that, you know, at this point, they've lost so much, they have nothing to lose. To go even further and try to make sure that they use their last resources in order to be able to turn the tables around, which is kind of the same situation Trump is in. I think he realizes that this was a huge mistake. He's lost, and he's now desperately trying to turn the tables, turn this failure into a victory before the market crashes and his own base turns against this war. His own base has not quite yet turned against the war, at least not in a very forceful way. So I think he thinks he still has some time and he's throwing everything at the Vonniers in the hope of turning this defeat into a victory.
- [26:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, very good point. Now, we did originally want to talk to you about some of this failed diplomacy and potential off ramps you're talking about. Let's put this up here on the screen. It all kicked off with a very interesting statement over the weekend where the Iranian Interim Leadership Council approved that neighboring countries would no longer be attacked unless an attack on Iran originated from them. This was seen as a potential off ramp where they said, look, you don't use bases to attack us, then we won't attack you. However, Trump immediately then came out and let's go to the next one, guys, where he said, Iran, which is being beat to hell, has apologized and surrendered to its Middle Eastern neighbors, promised it won't shoot at them anymore. The promise was made only because of an Israeli attack. Your analysis is that his immediate shoot down of that potential off ramp immediately actually re escalated the situation. Can you get into it?
- [27:19]
Trita Parsi
Yeah. So there was very sensitive negotiations taking place initiated by regional states. The Iranians had come to an agreement with them that there would be a movement towards not targeting them unless actually their soil was used for attacks. And in some cases they have been. This started off then with this video message by Pizzishkayan in which he actually went further than what had been agreed upon within the Iranian system. He issued a personal apology, which of course took all the headlines. This actually generated a tremendous amount of anger within the Iranian system against him. And he came out and kind of retracted it and said that he was misunderstood. And the next step was then for some of these GCC states to observe what happens. Will the Iranians actually implement that and then issue their own statement? It would take a couple of hours in between Trump comes with his truth social, and as you see there, he insults Iran, he humiliates Iran, and then he says that Iran will be hit very hard today. And only a short period after that, the United States hits the desalination plant in Rexim island, which is a major, major escalation. It is also a violation of Article 54 of the Geneva Convention's Protocol 1. So immediately after that, the Iranians started pounding GCC states as well as Israel, and this whole thing just fell apart. Now, it is not entirely clear to me, I've not been able to get to the bottom of this, as to whether Trump did this deliberately because he wanted to sabotage that mediation effort, or whether this was something that essentially further reflects that the US Government is somewhat of in disarray, that the GCC states had informed the US of this deal, informed them of the status of these negotiations. But Trump was not in the loop or didn't care, didn't understand that him coming out and issuing this tweet and going forward with this attack would completely destroy matters. But this is what happened, and the effect is that this diplomacy collapsed. Now, I do believe that there's some other efforts being made right now to resurrect it, but it tells you how delicate the situation is and how problematic it is if the United States is really just improvising this war at this point.
- [29:32]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. And then Israel, of course, directly interested in broadening this war as much as they possibly can and seeming to. We just talked about how they were blaming the UAE for this drone strike on the desalination plant in Iran. UAE saying that is not true at all, but you can see the incentives there of Israel. And we can put D4 up on the screen. This is one of the strikes that happened from Iran shortly after this, you know, attempted diplomacy fell apart. That is Dubai International Airport. That is. I mean, I'm sure all three of us have been there multiple times.
- [30:03]
Saagar Enjeti
That was a jet fuel hangar, too.
- [30:05]
Krystal Ball
And yeah, to see this is pretty astonishing. Busiest airport in the world, or at least it was. And meanwhile, on the escalation front, let's put D5 up on the screen. US is deploying yet another. So this will be the third one carrier strike group to the Middle East. Just an extraordinary amount of firepower being amassed in the region. So it looks like this thing is only going in one direction and it is not towards an off ramp.
- [30:30]
Trita Parsi
Certainly true. And I think what you said about their Israel's constant messaging, that this was done by Bahrain or by the UAE has infuriated These states, because it's so clear the Israelis want these GCC states to fully enter this war because not that that makes a huge military difference, but because it further ruins Iran GCC relations for decades to come. What the Iranians are doing already now, it's going to create a tremendous amount of problems between the GCC and Iran going forward. There's a lot of anger obviously against Iranians and the gcc, particularly amongst the states that went out of their way to make sure that this war was prevented and are still trying to stop it. But what the Israelis are doing is that they're trying to get everyone directly involved in this conflict in order to make sure that even once this is over, Iran's relations with these states are going to be in a terrible state for decades to come. We also have, if I could just add one thing.
- [31:28]
Rory Johnston
Go ahead.
- [31:28]
Trita Parsi
As much as we're talking about, like, look, this war is, you know, Trump is improvising it. He's lost control. I think we have to be clear that from the Israeli standpoint, this is a splendid success.
- [31:39]
Rory Johnston
Right?
- [31:39]
Trita Parsi
It doesn't matter to them if it's Moshtabbar or it's Hasan or whoever it is that becomes the next supreme leader. None of these things are important. What's important for them is that the country is being bombed to Smithers, that their power is being set back decades, that the balance is going to be shifting in Israel's direction at the end of this, regardless of exactly how it ends politically. The way it ends militarily is that Iran's resources are now really being drained and its military capabilities are. Even though they may, I don't think they will at all surrender. Even if that is not a surrender that it ends with. Militarily, their capabilities will be set back dramatically and that shifts the balance of power in Israel's direction, which is exactly what they're looking for. It just so happens to be that the United States is paying for all of it.
- [32:24]
Saagar Enjeti
Right. They don't care at all about a stable Iran. In fact, they don't want Iran to be stable. They don't even care about American gas prices. They don't care about American lives. They care least about the GCC countries. We're the only ones that have any interest. Oh, Asian markets are tumbling. Boo hoo. You know, they could care less. One of the things we've also seen though is the explosion of civil conflict in Iraq. Let's go ahead and put D6 up here on the screen where we've seen Iraqi resistance units who were in direct contact. This was a claim with US Forces hasn't been exactly confirmed. But we definitely know that there's a lot of stuff going on in and around Iraq where there's been significant consternation. What is the possibility? You've talked about this on the show before about resistance in Bahrain with the Shia population in Iraq, attacks potentially there, and a broadening of some sort of like Arab Spring Spring style uprising in the middle of all this conflict, if it continues to last.
- [33:17]
Trita Parsi
We don't know quite yet exactly how strong the Iranian intelligence capabilities are. I mean, clearly they have capabilities, but their ability to actually foment some unrest or support it in Saudi Arabia and the eastern provinces or in Bahrain. We've already seen some sporadic spontaneous protests, particularly in Bahrain early on. So that is an unknown. But we definitely know that in Iraq there are plenty of armed militias that are still quite loyal to Iran. They believe that, particularly if the Kurds were to go in, I think that definitely would have activated these other Iraqi militias against us and all of Iraq would once again be thrown into some form of a civil war. So, you know, the idea that this would be quick, that this would just entail Iran and all of that was disproven within the first 48 hours. But it can still get much, much worse than what we already have seen, particularly if those groups are activated. We've already seen that there's open fighting now between Hezbollah and Lebanon. And of course, the Houthis are still sitting tight. Whether they're sitting tight as a warning to Saudi Arabia not to enter the war and they would only go in if the Saudis go in, or whether they're waiting for a moment in which the choke point in the Strait of Hormuz is becoming really, really high. And then they add another problem to it by closing down the Red Sea again, which would really just be devastating to the entire global economy. It doesn't remain clear to me exactly what the strategy is. But I think it's very interesting that so far they've been sitting tight. But I don't think that that is because they don't have the capability or the willingness to get in. It seems to be a much more complex calculation that they have that is all about timing rather than willingness.
- [35:00]
Saagar Enjeti
I agree.
- [35:01]
Krystal Ball
Lastly, let's put this piece of news up on the screen. Saudi American diplomats in Saudi Arabia have been ordered to leave. State Department said to order diplomats to go. Ordered departure of U.S. employees in the Kingdom indicates senior diplomats are bracing for possible surge in violence in the war. With Iran. What do you make of this development?
- [35:19]
Trita Parsi
It shows that at this point, the Iranians are the ones that are determining the geography of this war. They have already been able to hit major CIA stations inside of some of the GCC states. They have also then later on identified where those CIA personnel moved and they hit those places. So their ability to strike, particularly with these drones that are not being picked up by the air defense systems in the same way, precisely because they're moving so slowly, if they were moving faster, they actually would have been detected, has given the Iranians a significant benefit. Saudi Arabia and the GC states are not asking Ukraine for help because Ukrainians have now four years of experience dealing with some of these drones that the Iranians are using. So we're seeing, I mean, this war is just expanding. It is providing a tremendous amount of cost. But I do think that the Trump administration has managed to keep the cost of this war rather hidden from the American public. Not just in terms of the tremendous amount of money that is being spent, but also the tremendous amount of facilities that are being destroyed. We're talking about some Thaad radar detectors that cost up to $1 billion that have been destroyed and will take years to rebuild. But also do note that the administration is not saying a word about the number of casualties. They have mentioned the number of dead, not the number of casualties.
- [36:47]
Rory Johnston
Yes.
- [36:47]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, great point. And I mean, not to mention even every day I read about some Pakistani laborer who got killed or hurt multiple people in Bahrain and Kuwait. I mean, there's a lot of civilians who've been caught up in not. I mean, and then the. In Tehran. God only knows the number of people who've been killed. Probably in the thousands at this point. Such a disaster. Thank you very much, sir. I'm sure we'll see you again.
- [37:12]
Trita Parsi
Thank you so much for having me.
- [37:15]
Saagar Enjeti
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Oreo, Haagen, Dazs, Charmin, Tide, Sparkling Ice, Reese's and Special K. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery restrictions apply. See website for terms and conditions.
- [37:45]
Krystal Ball
Let's talk personal style. Are you a classic jeans and tee minimalist, A Louis Vuitton lover or do you like a little bit of both? Depending on the vibe. Whatever your fashion mood, you can find what feels like you on Poshmark. With millions of new and pre loved pieces, Poshmark is your one stop style destination. From everyday wardrobe staples to vintage gems and luxury labels into reformation. Got it. Carhartt got that too. From designer bags to streetwear, it's all there. Men's? Yes. Women's? Absolutely. Kids Huevette. And the best part? You're shopping real closets from real people with real style. It's like braiding your most fashionable friend's wardrobe if you had thousands of fashionable friends. Plus, every item over $500 goes through Poshmark's authentication process so you can shop high end with total confidence. Ready to refresh your Closet? Head to poshmark.com, sign up with code podcast10 and get $10 off your first purchase. Go ahead, find your next favorite thing.
- [38:44]
Saagar Enjeti
Busy work weeks can leave you feeling drained.
- [38:47]
Krystal Ball
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- [39:47]
Trita Parsi
Israel is a crazy rogue state with
- [39:52]
Saagar Enjeti
the half its political leadership in the
- [39:56]
Trita Parsi
mindset of the 5th century BC reading some text from King Josiah and there Israel has just plunged the world into probably the third world War, but into a phenomenal economic crisis.
- [40:18]
Saagar Enjeti
This is the the timing, the instigation is Israel's. The fact that the US goes along with it is because it's completely coherent
- [40:28]
Trita Parsi
with the US hegemonic project. But this is Israel complete madness. And because of the hold of the
- [40:39]
Saagar Enjeti
Israel lobby in the United States, that madness isn't even examined.
- [40:45]
Krystal Ball
I don't want to be alarmist, but I also want to be clear eyed about where we are and where this could go. And already we have. We can put the next piece up on the screen. We have reports that Russia is providing Iran with intel which makes perfect sense about the locations and movements of American troop ships and aircraft, according to multiple people familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting on the issue. In the same way we viewed Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity. Hey, let's get involved, let's do a proxy war. Maybe we can hurt Russia, maybe we can degrade their capability. They are viewing this as a similar opportunity. In addition, US Also has intelligence suggesting, I'm reading from the CNN report that China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components. Three people familiar with the matter said. Though Beijing has stayed out of the war up until now, China relies heavily on Iranian oil and has reportedly been pressuring Tehran to allow safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. So we have directly impacted their interests in terms of their energy landscape. Although I don't want to overstate that because China, I think some 10 to 15% of their oil comes from Iran. So, you know, it's not great for them, but it's not a total and complete disaster the way that it has been portrayed. I mean, the people who are arguing, oh, this is all about hurting China, this is all about hurting China. The math doesn't really math when you consider that the country that is being, you know, one of the countries that is being hardest hit by this is us, their geopolitical rival. So when you look at that, when you look at the fact we're already in this proxy conflict in Ukraine with Russia, when you look at, you know, you've got a proxy conflict going on in Sudan as well, obviously we're in our own hemisphere. Venezuela kidnapping Maduro and quote unquote taking over there. Now we're belligerently threatening Cuba as well. It does have some of the ingredients and especially with the uncontrolled escalation spiral that we're already in, it does have some of the ingredients of a broader conflagration, especially when you add on the table the possibility of deployment of nuclear weapons, which I don't think either one of us can rule out.
- [42:47]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, I wouldn't put it at zero, which is scary enough. I don't know what five. What are you at? I'm at like 3%, which is, I mean, it's too high for what nukes
- [42:54]
Krystal Ball
are World War Three.
- [42:56]
Saagar Enjeti
Okay. But let's talk about the whole World War thing. So even when people say World War Three, the expectation of World War Three is. It's going to look like World War two. Well, World War two looks nothing like World War one.
- [43:06]
Rory Johnston
Okay?
- [43:06]
Saagar Enjeti
So the idea that the new frontier of battle is going to look exactly like some, you know, carbon copy of Something that happened 80 years ago is preposterous. It is going to look actually exactly like it does right now. You and I consider the Ukraine war to be a proxy conflict. Yes. Well, okay, that is a global conflict because all of NATO, the United States, sanctions, the entire economic system, all of these US institutions, which were designed post World War II, were leveraged against Russia. That literally, to me, is basically warfare. You could call it what you want. Whether US Boots are on the ground, if Russians are providing intelligence, it's the same thing. Also, who are we to complain? How many times do we do battle damage assessments? And we do more for the Ukrainians than the Russians have done for Tehran so far, and now we're complaining? Good luck selling that.
- [43:52]
Krystal Ball
I mean, I'm so close, right? No, literally, if you consider, you know, all of the weapons transfers and the support and the intelligence training that we've been doing for years and years in Ukraine.
- [44:03]
Saagar Enjeti
Exactly.
- [44:03]
Krystal Ball
So, I mean, the coup that we phone. How about that?
- [44:06]
Rory Johnston
Think about.
- [44:06]
Saagar Enjeti
I mean, yeah, exactly. Like, not to turn it into a Ukraine thing, but that already was a proxy conflict. This is a proxy conflict now, but it's got a long history. In the post World War II era. This is what global conflicts look like. Afghanistan became globalized. Vietnam became globalized. Syria, globalized. Libya became globalized. Every one of these interventions. The Iraq conflict, Right. The war in Iraq was not between the US And Saddam. That portion only lasted, like, three weeks. It was the US versus Iran versus all of these other, you know, during the Syrians, during Al Qaeda. Like, all of these people coming from all over the globe. Same in Syria. I mean, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Israel, Hezbollah from Lebanon. Like, all of these people were involved. So World War 3, if you will, is gonna look a lot more like this because of mutually assured destruction and nuclear weapons between the great superpowers. It will look a lot more like those conflicts that happened throughout the Cold War, that it is, you know, less destructive in terms of our overall human life. But, I mean, it could still be an abject disaster. Like, how many people died in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Americans, maybe 7,000. Right. I mean, there were more people killed in a single hour of combat in, like, some of the world wars in that. But that doesn't mean that the strategic implication was not an absolute nightmare for all of us. So I think that's why we need to recalibrate some of our expectations. I don't think Jeffrey Sachs is wrong. Really, what I'm the most worried about is the climb up the escalation ladder, which we talked about, from oil and to water. Cause there's no coming back from that. Like, once you start going after civilian infrastructure, it's a disaster because everyone has to fight to the death. There's a clip going around I was telling you earlier where Trump said unconditional surrender. I talked about that with Tucker, and Tucker made a comment, and he was like, unconditional surrender means that foreign troops get to rape your wife and daughter. Provocative. But, I mean, look at the history of unconditional surrender. That is unambiguously true. Randy Fine and Laura Loomer, all like Tucker says American troops are going to be. It's like, that's not the point, guys. The point is, is that when you're faced with that, as the Germans were with the Soviet Union, you want to know how many. I mean, you know, not a lot of people talk about it. It's something like 2.5 million rapes that occurred over the battle through the conquest of Germany. It's. It's dark. Like, it's really, really dark. Genghis Khan. That was unconditional surrender. And that's the point, is that when you impose that on a foreign populace, you have to do either what the United States or the Union army did to the south during the Civil War, is burn their civilian infrastructure to the ground, take away all their food in World War II, literally have to invade and go block by block. The Soviet union, they incurred 400,000 casualties in 1945, just in the last six months of the war. They have 400,000 casualties on the front line. Whenever in the battle of Berlin, think the United States. How did we get unconditional surrender in World War II? We had to drop two atomic bombs to force them.
- [47:01]
Krystal Ball
Well, and then. I didn't know that we had to, but anyway.
- [47:04]
Saagar Enjeti
Okay, well, it was either two atomic bombs, which, I mean, if you look at the decision matrix, it was either two atomic bombs or hundreds of thousands of American casualties. There was no other option. That was it. If you wanted unconditional surrender. And even then, we still had to revise our unconditional surrender to make it so that the Emperor could stay as some sort of figurehead, that's what it takes to achieve something like this. And that's effectively like, we're on the road now and it's only been eight days. Usually it doesn't even take. It usually takes much longer than this to get to some sort of disastrous position.
- [47:35]
Krystal Ball
Also, you have to think of this from the perspective of the rest of the world, right? It was one thing when Trump is like, okay, we're going to dominate our hemisphere, right? We're going to do the, you know, we're going to do whatever we want. We're gonna make sure we've installed these puppet regimes or we've kidnapped leaders and we've brought everybody to heal. We're gonna do that. And Russia and China, you've got your, you know, China in particular, you've got your spheres of influence. You do what you want over, okay? That's one thing.
- [48:01]
Rory Johnston
They love that.
- [48:01]
Krystal Ball
That's one thing.
- [48:02]
Saagar Enjeti
They're like, we believe. We're like, sure, Don Row doctrine, we're cool with that.
- [48:05]
Krystal Ball
Let's go.
- [48:05]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, but they're like, then we get Taiwan and Ukraine is ours, right?
- [48:09]
Krystal Ball
But now, especially when you consider we've, you know, Trump has not solves the Ukraine conflict. We are in endless war in Ukraine. We are locked in a proxy war with Russia and Ukraine, okay? And now you add to the mix, by the way, we're going to destroy Iran. We're going to do regime change or collapse the regime or whatever in that region. Well, that's not our hemisphere. It becomes clear that the point is to dominate the entire world. The point, the response from the Trump administration to the decline of our empire and the current decline of our superpower status as the sole global hegemon is not to say, all right, let's come to some sort of accommodation with the world. The response is no, we're going to have a $1.5 trillion defense budget and we are going to dominate the entire world. We're going to do whatever we want to whoever we want. No holds barred law of the jungle. And I have to think that if you're a China, if you're Russia, if you're any other significant power in the world, that is an unacceptable approach to you. So it is intentionally bringing us into direct conflict with these other countries. And again, this isn't theoretical. This is already happening now, especially with China considering, you know, involving themselves directly in our war in Iran. And you can understand why we're messing with their stuff, we're messing with their oil. And we are also asserting to the world that we are going to try to dominate the entire world. We're gonna blow up the UN and these other, you know, institutions of global cooperation. We're gonna put Trump at the head of the quote, unquote, Board of Peace and, you know, allow him to serve in perpetuity and get to appoint his successor. And you have to pay to get in. And ultimately he has veto power. That is the direction that they have clearly broadcast to the world. And so, yeah, the rest of the world at some point and already is going to have something to say about that. So that's one piece. The other piece here is the possibility of the deployment of nuclear weapons. Because now you have obviously Israel, also nuclear power and completely psychotic. And, you know, parts of it driven by these, you know, religious fanaticism, parts of our government driven by religious fanaticism, which makes this whole thing scary as well. Obviously, Iran is a literal theocracy. So you have religious fanaticism there as well. And you had these very ominous comments recently from Netanyahu. Let's put E6 up on the screen where he is promising some sort of a major surprise for Iran. He says that will completely destabilize the country. Netanyahu is asking Iranians to lay down their weapons and surrender or face death. He said, quote, the moment of truth is approaching and he will free Iran and make Iran and Israel allies. Okay, so we have that. So what does that major surprise. That's a little bit uncomfortable. And then this also just came out. We can put E7 up on the screen. You've got this guy who makes these, like, doomsday bunkers that are supposed to be, you know, to allow you to survive drone attacks, ballistic missile strikes, or even nuclear Armageddon. And he claims that two senior cabinet members in the Trump administration are among his clients. One of them texted me yesterday asking me, quote, when will my bunker be ready? So not exactly comforting when the people who are in charge here are preparing their doomsday bunkers and trying to rush delivery, concerned about how quickly they will have access to this anti Armageddon proof bunker for themselves.
- [51:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, I mean, I don't know if it's true or not, but it is crazy. And I do think to the whole World War point and actually what you were saying about how others will react, I'm very World War I brained. So to me, this, it's like everyone's like, oh, this is going to cause World War 3. And I'm like, no, I don't think so. If we were to have like a real massive thing. But what it does is it shatters the illusions and the understandings that we all have. So there was the Boer War, which a lot of people don't know about, but you know, it was between Britain and what it did is it pierced like this idea of splendid isolation. It really heightened the tensions between the Anglos and the Germans. It led to the Triple Entente. But more importantly, it normalized like a lot of the modern trench warfare. The concentration camp, that's where a lot of that stuff came from. But what it did is it set the stage for, well, wow, Britain is not nearly as invincible as we all thought, which means we need to rearm because, oh, it's a paper tiger maybe. And that's what leads to the great clash in 1914. Well, I could see this very similarly. It's like you have this. I mean, nobody could say that this was essential for US security, just like Iraq. So you have this foreign adventurous conflict. Some Americans will die, but not hundreds of thousands or anything like that. I'm not minimizing their deaths in any way. I'm saying domestically we can absorb that. If we could absorb 7,000 casualties from the global war on terror. Most people, how did the GWAT impact them? Well, we all knew somebody who maybe have deployed and came back with ptsd, but for the most people it was high gas prices, bad politics, et cetera. But it wasn't like an attack literally on our everyday civilization. This is very similar. Most people will be very upset, but it's not going to directly impact your life in the way that a real world war would. But China, Russia, any of these other countries, what they're watching for is any of the kinks in our armor. Interceptors, for example, the breakdown in the global order. The GCC countries, after this is all over, you really think they're going to be great friends with America. So we have to rebuild all these radar systems. You need permission. You have status of force agreements with every one of these countries. Are you re signing? I don't think so. I really don't. Or we're going to bribe the shit out of them with, with weapons we don't have. Or we'll have to take from somebody else.
- [53:51]
Krystal Ball
And how about this? Let's say China does take this as the opportunity to move on Taiwan.
- [53:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. What are we going to do?
- [53:56]
Krystal Ball
What then? We're not ready for that. Not militarily. I mean, I think, I personally think it would be insane to get in a fight with China over Taiwan ever, but especially at this point. But we're also not prepared domestically to we have not spun up the semiconductor capacity that we need. We're fucked. So, I mean, that's the reason that anyone cares about Taiwan, really. It's not about human rights and democracy, total and complete bullshit. It's the semiconductors. That's the whole thing. We aren't prepared for that. So what are we gonna do then? Then we're in a direct conflict with China. So I don't know. I mean, I do sort of agree with Jeffrey Sachs and also with your point that in a sense we are already in that conflict now. It doesn't look like World War I, it doesn't look like World War II. To your point, it's not going to. Especially in the nuclear age where you have not just us, but Israel and Russia and China, all these nuclear powers that are hopefully not itching to destroy the entire world. Hopefully. But in terms of the lines of conflict and being engaged in these various proxy fights, I mean, it's already on. And there's something else that I, I saw online that I thought was an intelligent point as well. You know, we talked a lot in the show about the possibility of boots on the ground. And we're talking about specifically, you know, probably special Forces to begin with, at least raid into Iran to try to recover this loose nuclear material, whatever. But in a broader sense, we already have boots on the ground. I mean, this is a regional war and we have a lot of American service members who are in the region, boots on the ground, getting killed in action right now and getting wounded. We don't know how many right now as part of this fight. So in a sense, it's a bit of a distinction without a difference because there is no doubt there are already American service member boots on the ground in the middle of this war, in the theater of combat where all of the action is happening.
- [55:43]
Saagar Enjeti
Of course, yeah, you're right. We have boots on the ground and forward deployed bases, which for what? To defend who? Israel? Well, no, they would say no, it's not to defend Israel, it's defend the Gulf countries. How's that working out? How's that working out for the Gulf country?
- [55:55]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, they're absolutely, you are feeling very defended right now.
- [55:58]
Saagar Enjeti
They are furious. On the timeline, Emirati billionaires with massive amounts of money invested here are all posting about how upset they are with the United States. Also, just so people know, the billionaires are the cutouts for the royal family. That's how it works over there. You don't have free speech. You don't put out long essays criticizing the US government without least tacit admission or without tacit permission from the monarchy and the people who are in charge. These are all messages which are intended for the United States. Again, not that anybody cares. Last point on this, cuz it really makes me upset. Our actual allies, like really good allies, South Korea and Japan. Their stock market, South Korea's stock market is down 14%. Japan is down like 8. It's a disaster. The vast majority of their oil comes from the Middle East. Their economies are getting hammered and we're losing. We're taking away possibly interceptors and others like those. I mean South Korea, Japan, these are not Israel, where we do 53 billion in bilateral trade. I'm talking about hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars for the global economy. And those people, I mean, it hung left out to dry by Washington and so disgraceful. All right, let's get to Lindsey Graham. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Bring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Oreo, Haagen, Dazs, Charmin, Tide, Sparkling Ice, Reese's and Special K. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pickup or delivery restrictions apply. See website for terms and conditions.
- [57:38]
Krystal Ball
Let's talk personal style. Are you a classic jeans and tea minimalist? A Louis Vuitton lover? Or do you like a little bit of both? Depending on the vibe, whatever your fashion mood, you can find what feels like you on Poshmark. With millions of new and pre loved pieces, Poshmark is your one stop style destination. From everyday wardrobe staples to vintage gems and luxury labels. Inter reformation? Got it. Carhartt? Got that too. From designer bags to streetwear, it's all there. Men's? Yes. Women's? Absolutely. Kids? You bet. And the best part? You're shopping real class from real people with real style. It's like braiding your most fashionable friend's wardrobe if you had thousands of fashionable friends. Plus, every item over $500 goes through Poshmark's authentication process so you can shop high end with total confidence. Ready to refresh your Closet? Head to poshmark.com, sign up with code podcast10 and get $10 off your first purchase. Go ahead, find your next favorite thing.
- [58:38]
Saagar Enjeti
Can you grab one more thing?
- [58:39]
Rory Johnston
I'll come back up for you.
- [58:41]
Krystal Ball
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- [58:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Really? Think I have another one.
- [58:58]
Krystal Ball
Ameca. Empathy is our best policy. Visit ameca.com come and get a quote today.
- [59:10]
Saagar Enjeti
Turning now to the person who should be having the most fun in this war. Lindsey Graham. He's at the height of his powers here in Washington. How did he get there? It turns out by colluding directly with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel and their own intelligence agencies using their tactics to lobby Donald Trump behind the scenes. And now openly bragging about war and death and all the money we're gonna make from this war, how we're even gonna free Cuba. On Fox News airwaves, it's beyond 2003 madness. Let's take a listen.
- [59:39]
Rory Johnston
This regime goes down. We're gonna have a new Mideast. We're gonna make a ton of money. Nobody will threaten the straits of hormones. And we're going to win Israel and the United States. You just wait to see what comes in the next two weeks.
- [59:54]
Krystal Ball
The next two weeks, meaning what?
- [59:58]
Rory Johnston
We're going to blow the hell out of these people. This regime is in a death row now. It is going to be on its knees. I'm not looking for a fair fight.
- [60:07]
Saagar Enjeti
If we get in a fight, I
- [60:08]
Rory Johnston
want to win it. I want to win it quick. I'm in Miami. You see this hat?
- [60:12]
Saagar Enjeti
Free Cuba. Stay tuned.
- [60:14]
Rory Johnston
The liberation of Cuba is upon us. It's just a matter of time now. You see this hat? Make Iran great. President Trump said the only way to make Iran great is for the people to take over.
- [60:25]
Saagar Enjeti
We're marching through the world.
- [60:26]
Rory Johnston
We're cleaning out the bad guys. We're going to have relationships with new people that will make us prosperous and safe. I've never seen anybody like it. This is Ronald Reagan. Plus, Donald Trump is resetting the world in a way nobody could have dreamed of a year ago. He is the greatest commander in chief of all time. Our military is the best of all time. Iran is going down and Cuba is next.
- [60:51]
Saagar Enjeti
Does he even have a hat that says America on it? You know, I mean, how many hats does this guy have? Of course. Foreign countries. It's crazy.
- [60:57]
Krystal Ball
I mean, do they hear him say, we're marching through the world? I mean, we're cleaning out all the bad guys. It's like, Jesus Christ. I mean, it's worse than 2005 rhetoric. Genuinely, we're marching through the world insanity. And yet he's getting a little nervous about the oil situation too. I'll read this. I don't think we have this as an element, but he says in this tweet, our allies in Israel have shown amazing capability when it comes to collapsing the murderous regime in Iran. America is most appreciative. Speak for yourself. However, there will be a day soon the Iranian people will be in charge of their own fate, not the murderous Ayatollah's regime. In that regard, please be cautious about what targets you select. Our goal is to liberate the Iranian people in a fashion that does not cripple their chance to start a new and better life. When this regime collapses, the oil economy of Iran will be essential to that endeavor. So when they were murdering schoolgirls, he didn't have any problem with that. He was, you know, on air again, static, we're marching through the world, blah, blah, blah. Now that the oil is threatened, home. That's. That's too far. That's a bridge too far saga. We can't have a attacking the, you know, any of the oil impacted. That would be a real problem for Lindsey.
- [62:06]
Saagar Enjeti
Well, but here's the reality, and the reason why is that, again, America has a interest in a stable Iran afterwards. Why? Because we want the price of oil. We're the global empire. Israel doesn't care. And yet for him to be chimping out over this, it's like, dude, this is what you signed us up for. And let's go and put F2 on the screen because this shit is so crazy. To help make the case on Iran, Graham traveled several times to Israel in recent weeks, meeting with members of the country's intelligence agency. Quote, they'll tell me things our own government won't tell me. He said he spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu, coaching him on how to lobby the President for action. I mean, you directly have a Senate, a senator, United States senator from South Carolina, who is traveling multiple times to the country of Israel, where he's bragging about it. He's meeting with them. He's being coached by them, coaching them. I mean, they talk about his long game, going all the way back to 2015, about him sucking up to Donald Trump after initially getting into it with on the campaign trail about how he historically would butter Trump up about comparing the Ayatollah to Hitler and saying that the only thing you have to fear is fear itself. Saying fdr, he's like you're gonna be one of the greats. Reminded Trump about ripping up Obama's nuclear deal at every turn, quote, White House aides even would call him the annoying crazy uncle because he would always be showing up at Trump's golf clubs, just sitting in his ear, talking, whispering sweet nothings about how good it is whenever it comes to Iran. And he's the proponent, not only as they point out, of Iran, but Lebanon. He wants to widen the war. He's fundamentally with Israeli interests. And look, I won't speculate to Senator Graham's personal reasons for supporting this, but look, here's one at least I think fair hit beyond any of the stuff about his own personal life. This guy doesn't have any children, he doesn't have any investments in the future of the country. He's in his 70s. This is all just a game for him, like at an intellectual exercise. He wants to be Richard Russell or any of these other senators and get their name on a building who had a great Senator Fulbright and get a scholarship named after him. That's what's driving him. Not any of our prosperity, any of our interests. And that's why it's so sickening.
- [64:25]
Krystal Ball
This is another reason why the old men in charge of this country where it's a problem because they start thinking about their legacy and start doing insane things, apparently is a problem that we're having right now. Cuz I think that's part of the calculus for Trump as well. He wants to leave his mark on the world. And I don't think he really, you know, gives a shit whether it's a good mark or a bad mark or.
- [64:43]
Saagar Enjeti
The ayatollah. He was 86, you know, he was super cerebral. That's what everybody said around him. He doesn't make any decisions. He's an old man. He just wants to die a martyr.
- [64:51]
Krystal Ball
He didn't care as much anymore.
- [64:52]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, we got it, Gave it to him.
- [64:53]
Krystal Ball
Congratulations. He accomplished his goal with our help. And just look at this next, the response from the Iranian Foreign Minister to these revelations about Lindsey Graham, which again, I just wanna sit on for a sec. Just think of how crazy this is. He is going to a foreign country, getting intelligence from them, coaching their leader about how to drag us into a war, how to convince our President to take us into a war, and apparently was successful. So he said here in response to this very article in Iran, an official could never travel to another country to collude with a foreign spy service on how to coach our own president into doing the bidding of foreigners. We would ask what the foreign country may have on that official and promptly charge him or her with high treason. And if we were functioning society, we'd be thinking in the same direction, that is how utterly insane this is. And with Lindsey Graham, you know, you guys may remember going back to, he was actually in that presidential primary as like, and also ran in the 2016 presidential election, fierce critic of Trump because he worried that Trump would not be excited about getting into these wars based on Trump's rhetoric at the time as being, you know, against the Iraq war, et cetera. Then he turns into Trump sycophant. Then, you know, he's very critical of Trump after January 6th. But very quickly he realizes, okay, the way to be able to manipulate this man. And again, this is not to absolve Trump at all. Trust me. I hate the man. And I think he is leading the country and the world into utter disaster. And it is 100% all on him. But to understand the forces around him, he thought that the best way to manipulate Trump would be to get back in his good graces as quickly as possible after January 6th. And so that's what he did. And we saw, you know, he was first to endorse him. He has been playing this game for a while now, all to effectuate exactly this outcome. And so when you see him on Fox News and he's the happiest man on the planet, watching bombs rain down and murder little schoolgirls and oil fall from the sky and all of the region in flames, and he's just happy as he could possibly be. Yeah, this is the fulfillment of a lifelong. And I do actually think it's just an ideological guide for him. Like, he has been very consistent in his neocon war mongering convictions over many, many years. And here he is, he finally found the guy who was willing to go where no president had been willing to go before. I don't know if you saw Tony Blinken talking about that. The Israelis actually tried to use the same approach with Obama where they were like, well, we're gonna bomb Iran no matter what. I know, so you better be with us. And Obama was like, no. And guess what? It didn't happen.
- [67:37]
Saagar Enjeti
You know where I learned about that?
- [67:38]
Krystal Ball
The idea that, oh, we had no choice because Israel's going and no, you had a choice. The choice would have been to say no to Israel. But nobody, you know, he seems completely incapable of doing that.
- [67:47]
Saagar Enjeti
The moment I came to love Dr. Parsi is when we were all in school and he did Two or three weeks on that exact decision, the decision point.
- [67:55]
Krystal Ball
Oh, really?
- [67:55]
Saagar Enjeti
In 2009, he made us read all the profiles and everything. And it's funny because all of the students were like hardcore neocons. And so this was like a shocking development to their minds about Israeli pressure. And I really came away from that class being like, man, he really remember, this was a long time ago for me. So I was in a very different phase of my understanding of the American empire. And I was like, yeah, maybe the Israelis aren't the good guys here. I was reading this and I was like, yeah, this is a real problem, man. And then he spent. Spent weeks actually making us study how the Israelis and the Iranians had actually fine enough relations beforehand, like in the 1980s and a clean break and the new strategy and how they devised it all around Iran. This blew my mind, actually. At the time, I guess it was like 23, 24 or something. But that's why it's so important to know that history is that many previous presidents, Obama included, actually had Israelis basically give them some sort of ultimatum. And enough of them were like, they're like, who do you think you are? I mean, Bill Clinton famously, who's the fucking superpower here? Whenever talking to them. So, yeah, it could be done. It's only Trump who is either weak, compromised. I mean, who the hell knows? Maybe just dumb enough. Is that usually the simplest explanation is the easiest one. But regardless of what it is, we're in it now. And now that we're in it, there's no off ramp. There's no off ramp. People like Lindsey Graham and all of them are in charge. And people should also notice this, is that all of these neocon people who hated Trump, as you said, are sucking up to him more than ever. They're the ones who are now declaring, like, what? True maga. And you know what? At this point, I'm like, what is useful to define MAGA or whatever? It's like, you can have it. If you want this to be it, take it. It's all go all in. I hope you are. But the only danger, and I worry about this, I wonder if you do too, is how can we make sure that this doesn't happen again? Because this was supposed to be the entire project post Iraq. And one of the lessons from that is that we allowed these people to be rehabilitated in society. Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith and I mean, all of these guys got jobs around Washington. Rumsfeld, Bush, Cheney. I mean, Bush is like a lib Icon now who? He's just a painter, grandpa. It's like, no, he's not.
- [70:08]
Krystal Ball
No, that's, I mean, that's, that is the lesson. People need to fucking go to jail. They need to go to jail. There needs to be professional consequences. It's unbelievable that we have some of the very same quote unquote journalists who cheerleaded the Iraq war, who are now still around to cheerlead the Iran war. It's crazy making. I mean, not only was there not accountability, but in many instances these people continue to fail upward because as long as you're wrong in a way that is regime and empire compliant, then you're good to go. That cannot continue to be the case if we wanna avoid this again in the future. And we need to be thinking about that right now. If we all survive this because the level of danger that has been created for a financial catastrophe, for a violent catastrophe, the potential blowback impacts. I mean, we already, already. What has been done is so consequential and so devastating and very hard to see how we walk away from this even blowback.
- [71:08]
Saagar Enjeti
We didn't even cover this. We would have. There's some crazy shit going down in New York. It's an ISIS inspired plot or something.
- [71:15]
Krystal Ball
Allegedly. Yeah.
- [71:16]
Saagar Enjeti
NYPD is saying it's ISIS inspired. Again, you take it for what it is. I want to see.
- [71:20]
Krystal Ball
Anyway, there was an id, There was something that's a story in New York City, right?
- [71:24]
Saagar Enjeti
Austin. I mean, all of these other arrests, look, you can say false 5. Regardless of whether what it is. I mean, it's important that all of this stuff is starting to heat up.
- [71:32]
Krystal Ball
I mean, people, look, whether those are legitimate or whatever. People around the world hate our guts, right? And are only gonna hate us more the more they watch our bombs fall on innocent schoolgirls and our president lie about it and us throw our weight around the world. You don't think that's gonna have consequences here at home? You don't think that. I mean, Trump got asked about this, he got asked about that and he was like, yeah, I guess that, yeah, that could happen. I mean, just completely blase about the potential consequences for a war that ain't minority. A minority of the population wants to fight at all. So yeah, Lindsey apparently is earning his place in history here, no doubt. He was extremely influential and he played his cards right. He knew how to manipulate Trump. Again, this all comes down to Trump. The buck stops with him. But he was one of the forces that was pushing in this direction and he got his wish.
- [72:28]
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, no I mean, his name will ring out, that's for sure. Knowing Washington, though, he'll get his name on a damn building, and then 50 years from now, they'll be like the Graham Senate Office Building. That's how the ship.
- [72:37]
Krystal Ball
You know, Kyle and I were talking about this. How are they gonna spin this thing like in the history books? How can you possibly spin this thing?
- [72:45]
Saagar Enjeti
They always do. I mean, I hate. Look, I hate to be a genuine doomer, but everyone said that about Vietnam. Guess what? All those people were fine. They were super rich. You know, all of it happened.
- [72:54]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, but it's still.
- [72:55]
Saagar Enjeti
Nothing happened.
- [72:55]
Krystal Ball
It still is seen as a catastrophe. It's like synonymous with an American military catastrophe. As is the Iraq war. Although they still try to spin it. If you go over museums, you can
- [73:05]
Saagar Enjeti
say Iraq was a disaster, but did anybody really pay a price? Every single one of those generals, filthy rich. None of them paid any price. Not just the generals, all of the political leaders. I knew some of these people, they're all still sitting here pretty in Washington. Dick Cheney, his obituary said what? He's basically a hero for democracy. George W. Bush's a painter. Like I said, Vietnam.
- [73:25]
Krystal Ball
Conde's back in the White House.
- [73:26]
Saagar Enjeti
Conde's back at the White House.
- [73:28]
Krystal Ball
George Bundy, Robert Madison era.
- [73:31]
Saagar Enjeti
These guys, they died fine. You know, nobody paid any price for that. 50,000 people were killed. Not to mention was a million or so Vietnamese, Cambodians, all these folks. Lbj, he died of a heart attack. It was like at the end of the day, like most of the time, it doesn't work out the way that we actually want it to. It's honestly, it's tragic.
- [73:50]
Krystal Ball
We have to fight for it to be different this time.
- [73:52]
Saagar Enjeti
Okay. All right, we'll see you guys tomorrow. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Bring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn uneligible items from Activia, General Mills, Nature Valley, A and W, Monster Energy, Coffee Mate and Pete's Coffee. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings. When you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pickup or delivery restrictions apply. See website for terms and conditions.
- [74:40]
Krystal Ball
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