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Jana Kramer
This is an I Heart podcast.
Krystal Ball
Guaranteed human.
Jana Kramer
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Professor John Mearsheimer
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Emily Jashinsky
Hey guys, Sager and Crystal here.
Krystal Ball
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show.
Emily Jashinsky
This is the only place where you
Ryan Grim
can find honest perspectives from the left
Emily Jashinsky
and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
Krystal Ball
So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
Emily Jashinsky
We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we
Saagar Enjeti
hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning, everyone. Happy Friday. How's everybody doing today?
Krystal Ball
So far so good.
Saagar Enjeti
All right, well, let's keep it good. We've got a big show. We've got some war updates surrounding the ceasefire or non ceasefire in Lebanon. And then we'll be joined by Professor John Mearsheimer to get his take on this next phase of the war. We've also got Milan Melania Trump coming out and talking about Jeffrey Epstein. We're going to be analyzing, theorizing why she chose this moment to talk about Epstein. And then finally, we've got a lot of updates around AIPAC Democrats. Alyssa Slotkin doing a town hall that got a little testy. And a little bit from our friends in the Free Press, who did a little bit of a reporting on Dr. Abdul El Sayed Hassan Piker in Michigan. I'll call it reporting. Crystal will call it something else. But first, let's get started with the latest. Crystal, we've got some new Trump truths here that I'll pull up on screen. Let's start with this first one here about the straight. Why don't you read this one out for us?
Krystal Ball
So we've got Trump here. He's been, I mean, as per usual, sort of crashing out on True Social. But anyway, he says Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable, some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have. President DONALD J. Trump this reminds me very much of when my son was three years old and he was playing Uno for the first time and he had his whole plan of like how he was going to finish it out and then someone screwed it up and he just completely crashed down, was like, that wasn't the plan.
Emily Jashinsky
So the agreement we had dishonorable, same
Krystal Ball
energy as my son when he was three years old. Anyway, the context here, of course, is that as part of the original sort of ceasefire understanding, the idea was Iran would allow some oil tankers through the Strait. And Ryan, you can speak to whether there was an understanding of is a toll going to be charged? Is it not going to be charged? It seems to me like those details were left sort of ambiguous. Iran certainly thought, we're going to keep charging this toll because of course we're going to. Meanwhile, what was very clear was the understanding from Iran and the US and the Pakistani government, which helped to facilitate this whole, you know, ceasefire so that these talks could occur, that Lebanon was including this deal. Well, Israel wanting to continue their mass murder and ethnic cleansing in Lebanon and Also wanting to undermine any potential deal, not only continued their invasion and bombardment in Lebanon, but they escalated it. So Iran understandably said that was not part of the deal. We've been very clear from the start that Lebanon would be included. And so, as a consequence, we are not opening the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, there was more traffic going through the strait prior to these talks than there is now. So that is the context here for Trump. You know, yelling over true social and thinking that, you know, berating the Iranians this time is going to effectuate some sort of an outcome rather than just being impotent as it has been the whole time.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. And my understanding is they allowed two Iraqi flagged ships to move through the strait in the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire, but then Israel carried out a series of massacres in Lebanon and they closed the strait again. But, yes, to your point, they were always clear. Well, they were ambiguous, but clear that they were going to charge a toll for the strait. What they were saying is that they were going to set up a legal mechanism in coordination with Oman to allow passage of ships through the strait. Anybody with any sense reading that is like, oh, so they're saying they're in control of it. They're probably going to put a toll on it as it's going through, since they were doing that already and they haven't said that they would lift the toll. But it's open, like a lot of other waterways, like the Suez Canal, it's open, you got to pay to get through. And they're like, that's how it's going to go for us. But, yes, the Pakistan situation is just comical because the US Asked Pakistan to be the mediators. The US Helped Pakistan craft the document. The document explicitly includes Lebanon. And then according to the reporting that we have now from CBS News, I think it is actually it was a call from Netanyahu to Trump where Trump was like, okay, go ahead, you can do Lebanon. So that's what happened. That doesn't change the deal. Like, they broke the deal. The deal as Trump understood it, as Iran understood it, as it was explained publicly, included Lebanon.
Krystal Ball
Well, let's look at, as the tweet drafted by the Americans stated for the Pakistani prime Minister, Lebanon is included. And Iran has always been very clear about that. And so, yeah, I mean, it's. Look, it's yet another example of perplexing behavior from this president, in particular of, why are you going to potentially blow up. We have new reporting from the Financial Times this morning that Trump has been seeking a Ceasefire for weeks at this point, been trying to back channel something to the Iranians. And the Iranians were very resistant and in fact, even up to this point that they were having trouble getting the IRGC on board with this. And that was part of the delay. And so they were finally able to kind of get the IRGC to go along with at least some sort of talks here. But in any case, Trump, you know, by letting Netanyahu continue to do whatever he wants to do in Lebanon, potentially from the jump, destroying his possibility of securing a deal. Now, I don't think that the possibilities are completely dead and gone. Obviously there are diplomatic talks happening in Islamabad this weekend. We'll see what's coming out, come out of that, what will come out of that. But it makes it much more difficult to envision them coming to some sort of terms in the near term and
Ryan Grim
not, I almost get tired of this, but Jeremy's reporting being validated again, that, that reporting that you're referring there. They're saying that, you know, in March they were desperately trying to reach out to get talks going to end this, end this war. Jeremy reported March 16, you know, that, that Witkoff was relentlessly texting him.
Krystal Ball
Being left on red, trying to get
Ryan Grim
them back to the table. Yeah, being left on read. And that had been going on for several days before Jeremy reported it. There were these furious denials. If you remember, Axios reported that, in fact, according to Israeli and American sources, it was the Iranians that were begging for the ceasefire and that it was actually Wyckoff that was not responding to them because, you know, we're winning now. The reporting is crystal clear that was a lie. The US Was begging for the ceasefire. Iran was ignoring them. Again, knowable things for Breaking Point viewers and drop site readers, but apparently not to anybody else.
Saagar Enjeti
And so, Emily, I'd like your reaction to this latest Netanyahu clip here where he talks about the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Professor John Mearsheimer
I want to tell you there is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with
Mac Callahan
force and we will not stop until
Saagar Enjeti
we restore your security.
Ryan Grim
He said there is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We will continue to strike Lebanon with maximum ferocity. Or some word like that. And he finishes, you know, until your security has been restored, which is an interesting phrase because what he's speaking in Hebrew to the Israeli public. What security? Like, what is the year during which he would point back since 1948 and say, this is the security. Like there has been war and occupation every day since 1948. So it's even a fantasy that there's some restoration of security. But what he's saying is, we're doing war, we're doing war. Don't worry about it. Like, we're not. Yes, we hear Trump, we hear Iran, Islamabad talks, we're doing war.
Emily Jashinsky
Well, it's actually sort of perfect that it was a Hebrew language message, because the English messages are the ones that should be more pro Trump, obviously. And in this case, there was clearly, clearly disagreement then. Trump was strong armed once again into accepting the Netanyahu line about what was going to happen during the ceasefire period. And I just think back to yesterday. Overnight, J.D. vance was in Europe, he was in Hungary, and he called it. Well, this wasn't yesterday, it must have been Tuesday. He called the ceasefire fragile. Like it was the first reaction, basically, we had from the administration because J.D. vance was in Hungary and he referred to it as a fragile deal. And not only was it fragile, it was unclear. Like it was. It was fragile because nobody actually knew. I can't think of a precedent for this. I was trying to think this morning, when this ever happened in modern history where you have modern technology and we're not sending carrier pigeons back and forth to try to make deals. And I can't think of a precedent for this. Maybe some, like Sagar out there is going to send me an obscure, nerdy example, but.
Ryan Grim
Well, actually, curiously or interestingly, the agreement with Hamas played out in a similar way.
Emily Jashinsky
Like if.
Ryan Grim
If you read what Hamas agreed to and you read the phase one, phase two, et cetera, and then you look at the way that Israel and the United States later described it and tried to implement it, it's night and day. So this is actually, it's par for
Emily Jashinsky
the course of the Trump administration.
Ryan Grim
And also you can look at Oslo where they're like, we're not going to do settlements. And then immediately they're doing settlements. Yeah, we didn't say we wouldn't do settlements. Really. That's what everybody understood. Oh, no, you're right. Like, we didn't actually say we won't do settlements. It was kind of implied. But clearly you're just going to do them.
Krystal Ball
The difference here, of course, versus the Hamas agreement is that Iran is vastly more powerful and has incredible leverage. I mean, I was talking to Murtaza yesterday, Ryan, and he was saying, you know, because we were speculating about will Iran now race to nuclear weapon, what is the logic there? He's like, you know, in a sense, they've demonstrated they already have a nuclear weapon with their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, which I thought was a fantastic point.
Ryan Grim
I totally agree with that.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, we've, that is their, you know, we think of nuclear weapon as like, okay, that will be deterrence. That is their deterrence that they have now established. And that is a game changer in terms of how every other country has to react to them. And basically, if there was some military option for us to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, we would be doing it. That didn't come at some catastrophic level of, of cost. And even at a catastrophic level of cost, it's not clear to me that you're going to be able to take it and be able to hold it. So that, that is, you know, a new reality that Iran has now established that they go into these negotiations with. And so, you know, you have a, A really, a landscape where everything for Trump is a terrible, a terrible choice, which is why it's hard to predict exactly how this is going to go and what the timeline is. But I think we, I, I think just one. Sorry, one thought, final thought here, Emily. I think, though, that we are getting a glimpse of not when this will. War will come to a close, but what it will look like, because we now have the outlines of the sorts of demands that Iran is able to make and able to command. So it's possible Trump decides he wants to go back and have some more pain and cause oil prices to go up and disrupt the global economy and cause a global depression and risk more American service members. That is certainly possible. The timeline is unclear, but in terms of the outlines of what our resolution is going to have to look like, I think we're starting to get clarity on what that is, and it involves a new status quo for the Strait of Hormuz.
Emily Jashinsky
I was actually just going to add exactly on that point that right now, reportedly Trump is saying this £900 of a rich enriched uranium, which he referred to as like the nuclear dust, that's what he wants to put on the table. But the Iranians now have the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump wants that to be some type of joint venture. I mean, it is utterly unacceptable for Trump to end the war in a place where the Strait of Hormuz is not the status quo that it was before the war. And instead you have the Iranians collecting tools that allow them to rebuild their weapons supply to race to a nuclear weapon. Even if, I mean, to your point, Crystal, to Maaz's point, even if they say they're not going to do that right now, have you incentivized them, of course, to raise some of them to want to demand quicker development of nuclear weapons capacity. And so none of the math, like the bartering math, makes sense for Trump. None of it.
Krystal Ball
But continuing the war also doesn't make sense for Trump.
Emily Jashinsky
Right.
Krystal Ball
And that's the, you know, that's the bind that he got himself into by deciding to pursue this. Absolutely. For the U.S. catastrophic war.
Saagar Enjeti
And speaking of bartering math, Mack, I wanted to throw this one to you. Apparently the White House has warned their aides about betting on this war. This is White House aides got an email last month telling them not to place bets on prediction markets. Multiple sources told CBS News press reports had raised concerns about government officials using non public info to place wagers on Kalshi and polymarket said the email the warning reminded staff that it's a criminal offense and is also prohibited by government ethics regulations. All White House employees are reminded the misuse of non public information by government employees for financial benefit is a very serious offense and will not be tolerated. So, Mac, do you have to shelve some of your bets, your insider info?
Emily Jashinsky
Yeah, Stolen valor. Wall Street Journal had this first.
Saagar Enjeti
Oh, sorry, cbs. We got to throw it. We got to give it up to big Phil here.
Emily Jashinsky
Yeah.
Mac Callahan
Anyway, yeah, I mean, it's just, it's wild. Like the, the levels of, just deep rot and corruption that have become baseline, especially when you're talking about, like, day trading on outcomes of war. And this is something we saw not just with Iran. I'm like, oh, is the US Going to use ground troops? But we've seen this in Ukraine on, like, the specific lines on the territorial gains that Russia or Ukraine might make. Like, it's a level of, like, disgust that I haven't felt in a long time. And this, these are, you know, not small wagers people are making. I'll see every couple of days, an account has dropped, like, hundreds of thousands of dollars in bets on, you know, whether or not we're going to use ground troops or there will be a ceasefire or Israel's going to bomb Lebanon today or whatever else. So I don't know. I mean, it's wild, but this is sort of the, the new normal that I feel like the Trump administration has, has set up for us.
Jana Kramer
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Krystal Ball
Two of the negotiators, Witkoff and Kushner, are deeply invested, like directly invested in the Middle east and stand to benefit from however, you know, this war is concluded and what that all looks like and they're just, you know, that's just the norm. And Kushner's not even part of the government technically, is he? Has he, has he gotten like some special government employee? No, he's just like a private citizen relative of Trump who has massive investments and has gotten, you know, already effectively like bought off by this, the Saudis through their intervention into his fund. The amounts of money here, the level of corruption is just astonishing. So I mean, in a sense I look at this and they're sending this email out to, like, low level staffers, top insider trading, you know, who's. So I guess only if you're at the very top, you get to.
Mac Callahan
It's only Kushner who can do it.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, Your business deals in public and cash in on your position. So, I mean, the rot is just, just so thorough throughout this entire administration. Everything is a grift.
Mac Callahan
It's also wild just looking at, like, from an Iranian perspective. These are the guys who you were expected to negotiate before this war started, like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. These, like, corrupt real estate guys who know nothing about, like, the particulars of nuclear enrichment or any of the other technical details of what Iran was conceding on in the days leading up to this war. Like, these are the two clowns who also, as you pointed out, Crystal, have billions and billions of dollars collectively tied up the Gulf countries. And they're both deeply, you know, proud Zionists and tied in with Israel as well. Like, the fact that we put these guys forward as some sort of serious negotiators is, Is a joke.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, Ryan, I did want to just tackle one last thing going on in terms of all the money, you know, money in the Middle east right now. There's an attack that drop site reported on, on a Saudi Arabian pipeline. I don't know if you saw this, but let me throw this up on the screen here. Confirmed strike on Saudi Arabia's east west pipeline has knocked out 700,000 barrels per day, about 10% of its 7 million bpd maximum capacity. Hitting the kingdom's only bypass to the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah. What is your reaction to this and what is Saudi Arabia's reaction, Ben?
Ryan Grim
Panic. I mean, they can, you know, you can fix a pipeline, but the east west pipeline is the vehicle that Saudi Arabia has been using to try to up its export capacity to make up for what can't get out through, through the Strait of Hormuz. And there's been, you know, there have been some oil analysts who've said, yeah, like, okay, this is, this is bad in general for Saudi Arabia in a lot of ways, but they're getting so much more per barrel that despite the fact that they're exporting less, they're actually coming out. Okay. That was before a lot of their infrastructure got wrecked and also before this 700,000 barrels were taken off, taken offline. So depends on how quickly they can get this, you know, back up and moving it also, you know, it also shows how kind of simple it is to sever These arteries.
Krystal Ball
Ryan, I wanted to ask you, obviously the last several diplomatic, alleged diplomatic efforts from the US Resulted in US using that diplomacy as a ruse to start wars and attack Iran. Is it possible that that is the same game that's being played here as well, that it's another, that it's another ruse to sort of distract them while some other operation unfolds because they, they have continued to rush more military assets to the region. Obviously the Iranians are concerned about this. They had to have Pakistani fighter jets escort their diplomats to this meeting. That's how concerned they were about the possibility of either the US Or Israel assassinating them when they're en route. So do you think that that's a possibility here that needs to be contemplated as well?
Ryan Grim
Yes. And what's new is that it is being very explicitly an outfront contemplated by the Iranians, like according to Jeremy's reporting, that is their running assumption, like their baseline assumption is that this is a ruse and that they should not and cannot trust it. But that because they mentioned the 10 point plan that they proposed as the basis for negotiations, they're willing to go through the motions and that if it turns out that the US Is serious, they're willing to reach a permanent deal. But their assumption is that it's a scam, it's a setup, they're going to try to kill the negotiators, kill the, kill the leadership and then, you know, relaunch a war. And I think they, some elements of the Iranian leadership kind of hope that's wrong. I think other elements of it hope that that's correct because there's a significant faction within the irgc, it appears, that wants this to continue because they think they haven't quite extracted enough pain to make this something that the west doesn't want to do again, you know, for decades. And I think Israel continuing to bomb Lebanon is kind of fortifying their position. Yeah, they're like, look, obviously we didn't, we didn't deter them from war in the future because we didn't even deter them from doing war on Wednesday.
Krystal Ball
And that will, and that will impact also what the negotiators, the Iranian negotiators are able to agree to because they know they have to be able to justify it not just to the irgc, but to a population that is going to have a much more sort of hard line logic at this point as well, since they've been able to achieve more with, you know, through overt warfare, aggressive warfare, than they ever were able to achieve through attempts at Diplomatic negotiations. And that's just the sad reality.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, yeah.
Mac Callahan
And, and to that same point, we had multiple Trump true social statements over the last couple of days that were keeping troops in the region. He's literally said they're restocking, they're resupplying. So, you know, if they are going to start this back up again, it could be under that same sort of pretense that we've seen. I'm also curious, Ryan, maybe you have some insight in terms of, from Iran's perspective, like what would have been the incentive for them to enter into these conversations or to continue them right now? Because the first truth social that we got from Donald Trump said the 10 point plan that we received from Iran is going to be the basis for negotiations moving forward. Then the next day we had Caroline Levitt come out and say, no, no, no, that plan was a complete joke. We threw it in the trash. So like, if you're Iran, are you viewing that as okay, this is maybe just Trump posturing. This is bluster. He wants to just look like he's succeeding. And we know what we're actually negotiating behind the scenes or like, why even entertain these negotiations if it, if the Trump administration is saying no, no, no. The thing we based the entirety of this plan on, we actually threw in the trash.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. What Jeremy's sources were telling him was that it was his mentioning of the ten point plan that, that got them to agree to it and that they, they understand as, as you said, that everything after that is just, is just flailing because they also recognize that this is the most powerful country maybe in the history of the world negotiating its defeat against a modest power. And that's going to require all sorts of gymnastics to, to kind of COVID up the obvious humiliation of it. And so they, they are, they're, you know, they're, they're smart cats. Like, they understand that they, they know that there's going to be contortions between now and. Because like, like Trump's contortions are going to be more kind of ridiculous than anybody else's. But think about it. Like, you just can't message that white is black or black is white without looking ridiculous. Right. And so it's gonna be, it's gonna be a challenge.
Emily Jashinsky
Ryan saying smart cats as Crystal's greatest
Krystal Ball
Salem makes an appearance, dramatic entrance.
Saagar Enjeti
Emily, we are about to get to
Ryan Grim
professor fans in for Iran in all these Chinese videos too.
Saagar Enjeti
Maybe an appearance in the next Lego video from Salem. But Emily, we have one last truth to get to before Professor John Mearsheimer here. I, of course, am speaking about Trump calling out Tucker, Megyn Kelly and Alex Jones.
Professor John Mearsheimer
This is a.
Saagar Enjeti
Sure. Yeah. The whole crew. This is way too long to read, so I'll just read a sentence or two here. But it says, I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact. For years. Especially by the fact that they think it's wonderful for Iran, the number one state sponsor of terror, to have a nuclear weapon because they have one thing in common, low IQs. They're stupid people. They know it, their families know it and everyone else knows it, too. Look at their past. Look at the record. They don't have what it takes and they never did. They've all been thrown off by television, lost their shows and aren't even invited on TV because nobody cares about them. They're nut jobs, troublemakers, and will say anything necessary for some free and cheap publicity. Your reaction, Em, so funny.
Emily Jashinsky
You missed the funniest part of it, which is that he corrects Candace Owens on Brigitte Macron, not only being a woman, but being a very beautiful woman.
Krystal Ball
More beautiful. A more beautiful woman than Candace.
Emily Jashinsky
Than Candace.
Krystal Ball
Full Trump. Trump Full woke on this one.
Emily Jashinsky
It's also so funny that his standard for what counts as legitimacy is always television. Like, whether you are invited on television. Like, just fantastic. I do think, like, on a serious note, it shows remind us that those are the obstacles people who break with the administration over this ridiculous war find themselves up against. And I mean, it's easy to laugh at it because this is exactly what you would expect from Donald Trump. But it's not just Trump. I'm sure it's like Trump allies. I know it's Trump allies who privately, publicly will try to shame anybody who breaks with them on this ridiculous war because they're insecure about it, they know it's unpopular, and the remixes have been absolute fire. If you haven't heard them, Everything I
Professor John Mearsheimer
need to know right there.
Saagar Enjeti
Stupid people, families know it.
Ryan Grim
I don't care.
Krystal Ball
We also got word that Tim Pool is still on the good list, though he apparently got a call from Trump before Trump posted this truth to tell him what a good friend he is. So.
Ryan Grim
But did you see what Tim Pool said afterwards?
Krystal Ball
No, what did.
Mac Callahan
He's trolling. He's trolling, though.
Ryan Grim
Who? Tim Pool? Yeah.
Mac Callahan
He's trying to farm engagement. So he's like pretending to be critical of Trump right now.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. Oh, he's not? No, no.
Saagar Enjeti
You can't trust his Twitter Feed.
Ryan Grim
So all he has left is Tim Pool, who you cannot trust to do anything other than just entertainment.
Krystal Ball
And.
Emily Jashinsky
And Mark Levin.
Ryan Grim
Well. Oh, I said this is trolling. Where he says that does it. I am done. This was the last straw. I'm so angry. Yeah, because it's crass and scene that he's responding to.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, he does this all the time.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. So, Emily, like literally though, other than Tim Pool, who, who, like, serious question, who does Trump have left?
Emily Jashinsky
Fox.
Krystal Ball
Shapiro.
Ryan Grim
So he's Fox and Shapiro. Newsmax.
Emily Jashinsky
Right, Fox News. I'm sure Newsmax has been pretty supportive of it, but. Yeah, that's the thing.
Ryan Grim
Walsh.
Saagar Enjeti
Walsh is out. No. Yeah, Walsh is out. He's arguing with his Daily Wire homies.
Mac Callahan
And then Shapiro is apparently bleeding tens of thousands of subscribers.
Ryan Grim
Shapiro, Fox News. And what purchases Fox News have left?
Krystal Ball
It's Trump and Trump with the boomers. Huge. Yeah, still huge.
Ryan Grim
So Trump and the boomers are now 75 plus.
Krystal Ball
But I mean, look, Gen X is actually the most pro Trump generation. Generation.
Ryan Grim
Unfortunately for him, we don't have power or we don't have any numbers either. Nobody cares. That's the worst sign for him yet. The last generation that's useful to you politically
Saagar Enjeti
is Professor John Mearsheimer. Is he Gen X or boomer?
Ryan Grim
He's a boomer.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, then we'll see. Well, let's. Why don't we bring him in right now and we'll see where he lands with all this stuff. Crystal, why don't you introduce the professor here when I bring him in.
Jana Kramer
This is Jana Kramer from Wind down with Jana Kramer. Every Mother's Day, I tell myself I'm going to be more thoughtful than flowers because flowers are beautiful. But they don't last. In my house, everyone always ends up in the kitchen. Friends, family, the kids. And I love having things around that spark, comfort, conversation and feel special. That's why I love the Lenox Spice Village. And your mom will too. It's a set of 24 hand painted little houses that are actually spice jars. And I swear people notice it the second they walk in. It's charming, it's nostalgic, and it somehow makes even everyday cooking feel a little more fun. And here's the best part. It actually gets used every day, whether you're starting the full set or helping her complete one she's loved for years. There's a whole world of Spice Village to explore this Mother's Day. Give her something she treasure long after the card is put away. Trust me, once you see it, you'll Want one, too? Find the full collection@lenox.com SpiceVillage you already take magnesium.
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Martha Stewart
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Krystal Ball
We are very fortunate to be joined this morning by Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. Great to see you again, sir.
Professor John Mearsheimer
Glad to be here.
Krystal Ball
So, just off the top, you know, what is your expectations for what might come out of these diplomatic meetings in Islamabad this weekend?
Professor John Mearsheimer
Well, I mean, it's important to realize that all we're trying to do at this point is get the ceasefire in place. And once that happens, then we'll have the serious negotiations. And the mere fact that we're having so much trouble getting the ceasefire in place makes one wonder where the negotiations are going to lead. Even if they're going to get started. It seems clear to me that the Iranians will not engage in serious negotiations regarding the ceasefire. They may, you know, talk, but they're not going to engage in serious negotiations regarding the ceasefire until Iran, excuse me, until Israel stops striking at Hezbollah. It's just that simple. And Israel has, or at least it thinks it has a vested interest in continuing to target Hezbollah, all for the purposes of undermining the ceasefire and in turn undermining negotiations. So I think the $64,000 question is whether the United States, which is desperate to end this war, will be so desperate that it will be willing to lean on Netanyahu in a really big way and get him to stop attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. But until that happens, this is Going nowhere.
Ryan Grim
Now, if the opposite happens and Netanyahu insists on continuing to attack Hezbollah and it brings the United States back into war, what are the consequences of that for the US Israel relationship? And as somebody who's studied the Israel lobby longer than probably most of us have even been alive, like, what would a breakup between the American people, the American public, and the idea of supporting Israel do to the US Israel relationship? What is there? Does that matter at all?
Professor John Mearsheimer
Sure. I mean, huge damage has already been done because it's very clear, in fact, it becomes clearer by the day that the Israelis bamboozled us into this war, that they led Trump to decide to attack on February 28th. And it's clearly a failed war. I mean, this was a catastrophic blunder on our part, and the Israelis are responsible for that. So what Trump is now trying to do is shut the war down. And what are the Israelis doing? The Israelis are doing everything they can to prevent us from shutting the war down and to make it go on. This is going to do further damage to Israel's reputation in the United States. And the problem that the Israelis face is that we have this alternative media sphere now. And of course, your show is a perfect example of that, where people talk about what Israel is up to and what the U. S. Israeli relationship has resulted in, in, and so forth and so on in ways that do enormous damage to Israel and the US Israeli relationship because people get to see the basic facts that didn't used to be the case before we had this alternative media sphere. So this is doing enormous damage to Israel's reputation in the United States. It's making the lobby's job in the United States much more difficult than it ever was. As I like to say, when Steve and I wrote the original article on the lobby in 2006 and then we wrote the book in 2007, I don't think either one of us ever imagined that we would be at the point we are now at today. The lobby has been so badly wounded, the US Israeli relationship is really in tatters, at least in the public mind. And I think moving forward, the situation only gets worse because Israel will behave in crazier and crazier ways, and more and more Americans will realize that, and they'll be well aware of what this escapade in Iran has led to.
Mac Callahan
I'm curious. Sorry, Emily, I'm curious what you make of the landscape of leverage going into these talks that, that the U.S. administration has Trump obviously claiming that Iran has been completely decimated, defeated, they have no military, etcetera you know, Iran in the meantime still retains the capacity to strike at Israel. US Assets in the region controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Who do you think has more leverage going into this? Where do you see these talks potentially going in terms of any sort of framework for a possible deal?
Professor John Mearsheimer
Yeah, that is an enormously important question that you just asked. And my view has long been that Iran has a vested interest in prolonging the war, or to put it in different terms, prolonging the closing of the strait. The fact is that what is happening here is that the situation in the international economy is getting worse and worse by the day. And as almost everybody knows, if you project out two or three months where the strait remains closed, the damage to the world economy will be enormous. This means that the longer the strait is closed, the more leverage the Iranians have over Donald Trump. Trump, on the other hand, has a profound interest in ending this war as quickly as possible to make sure that the damage is limited. And just to go back to what happened on Monday with Trump's two tweets, the one in the morning where he threatened to wipe Iran off the face of the earth and make it so that Iran could never come back from the dead. I mean, this is a genocidal threat of the first order. As almost everybody knows, the idea that an American president was making a threat, threat of that sort would have been unthinkable before the morning of April 6th. But anyway, that shows his desperation. Then what happens is at the end of the day, at the end of the working day, he issues another tweet and he says that we're going to not attack and we're going to start negotiations and there's going to be a cease file there. And what's truly remarkable about the second tweet that night is he says that we accept the Iranians ten point plan. You remember there are two plans on the table. One is the American plan, which is the 15 point plan, and that has all the maximalist demands of the United States and Israel. And then there's the ten point plan, which is the Iranian plan, which has their demands, which are maximal Iranian demands. And he says that it is the ten point plan. He says in the tweet that evening is a workable basis for negotiation. Not the 15 point plan, the 10 point plan. This is remarkable. And then he says furthermore in the tweet that almost all of the points of contention between the two sides have been worked out. If you think about what he said that morning, that's desperation. And then if you think about what he said that evening. The concessions that he's willing to make are really quite remarkable. And what's going on here is that behind closed doors, they're in deep panic mode. They understand full well that the international economy might go off a cliff if they don't shut this one down immediately and then begin to repair the damage and do everything possible to return to something approximating the status quo ante. They understand this. So we're desperate. But of course, if you flip back to the other side, the Iranians, this all tells you the Iranians are in the driver's seat and they have a vested interest in prolonging this. So if I were playing Iran's hand, I might sit down today in Islamabad. But I would say, listen, folks, we're not getting a ceasefire until Israel stops pounding Hezbollah. And it's up to you, the United States, to decide whether or not you want to take the international economy off a cliff or whether you want to appease Prime Minister Netanyahu. It's your choice, or whether that's where we are.
Emily Jashinsky
Do ground troops, because that's really the only other option. That's what I was going to ask, professor, is Donald Trump now talking about the nuclear dust, as he calls it, the hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium? And the Iranians have, as we were just discussing, leverage in the form of the Strait of Hormuz. So for Israel, as they pressure Trump over the negotiations, Iranians are reportedly considering whether to even show up as the Lebanon bombing continues. But let's say that happens. They do show up. What on earth would an off ramp for Trump look like? That also would involve getting Netanyahu on board with it. That doesn't involve either going back to war with ground troops or Iran operating a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz and dealing with the enriched uranium, quote, nuclear dust that he's talking about. I mean, it just, I can't conceive of what that might look like. And I think this is what you're speaking to. But if they to push on the hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium, what leverage exists possibly for them to barter?
Professor John Mearsheimer
Well, first of all, they have no leverage. We have no leverage. You raise the possibility of ground troops. We have 7,000 combat troops in the region. There's all this talk about 50,000 troops in the region. Almost all those troops are not combat troops. And you can't go to war on the ground against Iran with anything but combat troops. You've got 7,000 combat troops. 5,000 of them are on Giant ships that can't get close to the coast of Iran. How are you going to offload those troops and the 2000 paratroopers in the 82nd Airborne up against a million man army? This is not a serious operation option. There is no ground option. I mean, you want to think about where we are militarily in this situation. First of all, we have 13 bases, 13 major bases in the region. According to the New York Times, all 13 of those bases are either destroyed or badly damaged. We have a huge naval armada in the region. That naval armada cannot get close to the coast of Iran, much less the Strait of Hormuz. So it's parked way out in the ocean, far away from Iran. Then there's the Air force in this rescue mission that just took place where they got the second pilot. We lost more aircraft that day than we have lost, lost in any single day since the Vietnam War. This was just to rescue one downed pilot. We lost more aircraft that one day than we have lost any day since the Vietnam War. Then there's the whole business of our missile inventory. We're running out of defensive missiles, we're running out of high end munitions. We have interests all around the world, especially in East Asia. And we're using up this rather small inventory of boutique weapons that we have. Where does that leave us? And then there's the question of our allies. We can't protect our allies. In fact, we've turned our allies, these are the GCC states, the Gulf states, into giant magnets for Iranian drones and Iranian ballistic missiles. Our military performance here, here has been abysmal. The idea that we have a military option. So this gets to your question, what's the off ramp here? There's only one off ramp here, and that's surrender. And what the actual terms of the surrender are have to be worked out. But this is what President Trump said in his tweet on Monday night. He said, we accept, accept the ten point plan as a workable basis. Go read the ten point plan. It's all the maximalist demands. Furthermore, with regard to Netanyahu, Netanyahu doesn't want to let the ceasefire come into place and he certainly doesn't want to see an end to the war because this will be a catastrophic defeat for Israel. As big a defeat as it will be for is Donald Trump. He will be a far worse defeat for Israel and especially for Prime Minister Netanyahu. So he's working overtime to undermine the ceasefire and prevent negotiations. And the $64,000 question is whether or not Trump is willing to lean on Netanyahu to get a ceasefire. And then he's going to have to lean on Netanyahu and he's going to have to work against the lobby me to negotiate a settlement. You want to remember get it. Look at all the trouble we're having getting a ceasefire. You can imagine how much difficulty Trump is going to have trying to negotiate a settlement that reflects the fact that we lost this war. But that's where we are.
Jana Kramer
This is Jana Kramer from Wind down with Jana Kramer. Every Mother's Day I tell myself I'm going to be more thoughtful than flowers because flowers are beautiful. But but they don't last. In my house, everyone always ends up in the kitchen. Friends, family, the kids. And I love having things around that spark conversation and feel special. That's why I love the Lenox Spice Village. And your mom will too. It's a set of 24 hand painted little houses that are actually spice jars and I swear people notice it the second they walk in. It's charming, it's nostalgic, and it somehow makes even everyday cooking feel a little more fun. And here's the best part. It actually gets used every day.
Professor John Mearsheimer
Day.
Jana Kramer
Whether you're starting the full set or helping her complete one she's loved for years, there's a whole world of Spice Village to explore this Mother's Day. Give her something she'll treasure long after the card is put away. Trust me, once you see it, you'll want one too. Find the full collection@lennox.com SpiceVillage magnesium supplements.
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Martha Stewart
Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Effortless? Here's a secret when prepping for cooking and baking, get ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens Countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter so the paper grips. Lay it down and drips and spills stay on the paper, not on your counter. Cleanup is as simple as lifting it away to reveal clean counters. Effortless it is thanks to Reynolds Kitchen Countertop Prep Paper, wet it, set it, prep it, done. Available in the Reynolds wrap aisle at Walmart.
Ryan Grim
I wanted to add one point real quickly to your observation about the dwindling missile ballistic missile interceptors because I had a piece yesterday with my colleague Murtaz Hussein over at Dropsite yesterday. Ah, there it is. Griffin or whoever pulled that out. Can you scroll down a little bit because there's a really. Mac. Yeah, there's a really interesting line in here that I, I thought is relevant to the US Israeli relationship. So right there, right there. So the White House referred questions. So what we reported is that they are, according to a Trump administration official, the Israelis are down to double digit ballistic missile interceptors and are now relying almost exclusively on the Navy, U.S. navy to prevent ballistic missile attacks and are letting a lot more strikes go through just because they have to. But the White House referred questions about the dwindling stockpile to the Israeli military. Quote, refer you to the idf, said a White House spokesperson. Now so I went to the IDF and they said we're looking into it. And they kept for hours. We're looking into, we're looking at like, like they were going to go count them and come back to me and give me a number. They eventually didn't have a fulsome comment. If they provide one, we'll add it to the article. But I thought that was such an interesting dynamic to go to the White House and say, say, you know, we're told by an official at the White House that the Israelis are almost out of ballistic missile interceptors and they say go ask the IDF about that.
Professor John Mearsheimer
I don't know what to say. Yeah, it is just kind of hard to believe. But you know, just a couple points, Ryan, and you know this issue better than I do, but the Israelis say in their press that 80% of the ballistic missiles coming from Iran are getting threatened through. This is truly remarkable. 80% of the missiles are getting through and they are running out of defensive missiles. And this is hardly surprising. If we go back to last year, you remember the 12 Day War. That war ended in good part because Netanyahu asked Trump to stop it because the Israelis there were running out of defensive missiles. And this war has gone on know well beyond 12 days. And it's hardly surprising that they're running out of defensive missiles. And by the way, we are as well. And to make matters worse, we have pulled Thaad missiles and Patriot missiles, as you well know, out of East Asia. In fact, that Marine Expeditionary Unit, the first one to arrive in the Gulf, came out of Japan. What this means is that the United States, which has been trying to pivot to Asia, Asia to contain China as a result of this war, is pivoting away from Asia. Just think about that. We are pivoting away from Asia. Think about what that means for our allies. Furthermore, just think about Trump's behavior, you know, since this war started on February 28th. I guess one could argue his behavior even before the war started. But what does this signal to our allies in East Asia? If you're Taiwan, if you're South Korea, if you're Japan, can you depend on the United States anymore? I mean, it's not only the fact that they're pivoting away, it's just the basic judgment of the Trump administration. This looks like the gang that can't shoot straight. And that's not overstating the case. In fact, if anything, it's understating the case. It's just truly remarkable how incompetent these people are. And just to go back to Monday, here we are Monday morning threatening genocide against Iran and then at the end of the day, doing 180 degree turn and basically saying we'll accept most of Iran's demands. It's remarkable where we are.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, let's talk about the Asian allies for a second. I wanted to throw up from our other host who couldn't be here, Sagar, who had some thoughts on this. He says, meanwhile, actually important US Allies Japan and Australia warn of a security vacuum in the Indo Pacific after the Iran war. And then more. South Korea is dispatching a special envoy to Iran immediately to negotiate passage through Hormuz. Direct bilateral negotiations outside of US Channels equals more breakdown in the US as guarantor of the allied order. What is your reaction to that? And then more specifically to the Taiwan question. Does this sort of put the Taiwan question to bed? And are we going to see movement from China and Taiwan into some sort of reunification process as an outcome of this war?
Professor John Mearsheimer
Well, just start with South Korea. I was on South Korean public television the other day, and I spent a lot of time sort of preparing myself for that conversation. And if you look at the South Korean situation in a very important way, the fact that we're pivoting away from East Asia matters less than the economic damage that is being done and might be done to South Korea if this war is not shut down. It's very clear that South Korea is being hurt badly by this war. A huge amount of its imported oil, which it's heavily dependent on, doesn't have oil of its own. Comes through the Gulf and they're in desperate straits. And the agricultural consequences of this just not to be underestimated. So countries like South Korea and other countries in East Asia, India is another example, Indonesia is another example. The Philippines is another example. These are countries that feel like they're close to the precipice, not militarily, economically. And something has to be done to end this war. And again, this in part, maybe in good part, explains why President Trump is in deep panic mode, because he understands this as well, because he's certainly hearing from these countries. So let's just put aside the whole business of pivoting away from East Asia. The economic consequences of this are being felt in East Asia in a really profound way. Way. And that's what explains the South Koreans talking to the Iranians about getting permission to send ships headed for South Korea through the Strait. Then there's the military dimension. And this brings in places like Taiwan as well as South Korea and Japan. First of all, if you're South Korea and Japan, how do you think about getting nuclear weapons at this point in time? Isn't the main lesson of this whole war that you better have a nuclear deterrent of your own own, whether you're Iran, South Korea or Japan, certainly straight up.
Krystal Ball
Hormuz deterrent. Yeah, A waterway deterrent. Well, and I wanted to ask you, so you said earlier that effectively the only off ramp for Trump is surrender, and I agree with that. I don't see any other option. And so whether it's now or a month from now or two months from now or a year from now, we are very likely to end up with something like, like the Iranian 10 points becoming a new reality, including a new status quo. With regard to the Strait of Hormuz, how does that change the world? How does that change the US's standing in the world? How does that change the Israeli standing in the world? China, like, what does the world look like if we end up with Iran as this now emerging fourth power? Tremendously, frankly, wealthy from the tolls they'll be able to charge and having demonstrated this incredible deterrent ability through their control of the Strait of Horizons.
Emily Jashinsky
And I'd toss in Russia as well. Professor?
Professor John Mearsheimer
Well, the Russians have obviously benefited enormously from this, at least in terms of the war in Ukraine. I mean, the amount of weaponry that we can give to Ukraine is going to be much less as a result of this war. And furthermore, Putin has benefited in the short term economically. I would say that I think from China's point of view and from Russia's point of view. The short term effects of this war are all positive for sure. But neither one of those countries has any interest whatsoever in seeing the international economy go off a cliff. And I believe that this is the principal reason. The Chinese have been putting pressure on the Iranians to go to Islamabad and try to negotiate a settlement to this war. The Chinese do not want this war to go on and on, nor do the Russians, because it could crash the international economy, economy. We could have a worldwide depression that looks worse than what happened in the 1920s. That's what we're talking about here. So I think in the short term this is good for the Russians, good for the Chinese, but they understand in the long term that's not the case.
Ryan Grim
Now.
Professor John Mearsheimer
What was your question, Crystal?
Krystal Ball
I was asking about if we have a final settlement along the lines of the Iranian 10 points, including a new, new status quo in the Strait of Hormuz. How does that change the world?
Professor John Mearsheimer
Well, let me just say one thing. You do not want to talk about Iran as if it's going to emerge as a new great power from this conflict. We did enormous damage to the Iranian economy before February 28, and we have done enormous damage to Iran, to its infrastructure since February 28th. And it's going to take them many, many years and many billions of dollars to begin to recover. So this is a country that is in many ways in terrible shape. They have two great levers, though, that give them huge influence in the region and in the world. One is they control the Strait of Hormuz. And number two, they have a huge inventory of ballistic missiles, both, both short range and long range. They have a huge inventory of cruise missiles and an even bigger inventory of drones. And they can use those weapons very effectively. So there's no question that the Iranians are going to come out of this war having more leverage over politics in the region and around the world once the conflict ends. But it's very difficult to say at this point in time how the war will finally end. In other words, if you look at the 10 point plan and you look at the 10 demands that the Iranians have made, how many of those are the Americans going to accept? For example, the Iranians demand that the United States leave the region, that we get out of the region with our military forces. Are we going to do that? If we don't do that, how do we think about those 13 bases? Do we go back to those 13 bases and rebuild them? Will the Gulf states that hosted those bases allow us to do that? These are all open questions, and they have huge consequences for what the architecture, the security architecture in the region looks like. So I think one thing that is clear is that Iran will be more powerful for sure after February 28th than it was before. I think it's also clear that relations between the GCC countries and the United States will never be the same and we will not have a close alliance with them in the future the way we have had in the past. And I think as far as Israel is concerned, this is just another major defeat for Israel. One of, one of the most interesting aspects of how the mainstream media reports Israel's actions in these various wars is that they're always portrayed as great victories. Israel is always seen as doing very well. Their situation is seen to be constantly improving and so forth and so on. They're remaking the Middle East. I think this is fundamentally wrong. First of all, with regard to Hezbollah, they have not defeated Hezbollah. Hezbollah has beaten them up badly in southern Lebanon. They were talking about going all the way up to the Litany river and controlling all of southern Lebanon up to the Litany River. This is the Israelis. But the IDF has had a devil of a time fighting with Hezbollah and Hezbollah has actually been winning. And the Israelis have retreated, treated to a narrow buffer zone on the northern border of Israel. And in terms of the bombing, they can bomb Beirut, they can bomb Tehran, but it doesn't ever lead to anything positive. And I believe the principal reason that the Israelis are interested in negotiations now with the Lebanese government is they want the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah because they can't. The Israelis can't disarm Hezbollah. So in terms of the war against Hezbollah, they have not won against Iran, this is a colossal defeat for Israel. With regard to Gaza, they have not defeated Hamas. Hamas still is there, it is still fighting with regard to the Houthis, they're still there. And they'll grow more powerful over time. Time with regard to Iranian nuclear weapons or Iranian nuclear enrichment capability, that, you know, that's all still on the table. So the Israelis are in deep trouble. And furthermore, they've poisoned their relationship with the United States. Where this all ends up, as we were talking about at the beginning of the show, is hard to say. But there's no question that there has been a significant deterioration in U. S. Israeli relations. So I think that the idea that Israel is going to come out of this as the dominant force in the region is simply wrong. Israel has been badly damaged and it has no real strategy available for fixing the situation. So I don't know the specifics of how this plays itself out because I don't know what the end of the negotiation process will look like. But I think there's no question that our influence in the region is going to go down.
Emily Jashinsky
Down.
Professor John Mearsheimer
Israel's influence is going to go down and Iran's is going to go up. But again, I don't think you want to overestimate the position that Iran is in simply because of the huge amount of damage that we've done to that country.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, professor, this has been illuminating and I did just want to flag on your way out that the President in a recent truth, seems to agree with you. Recent Truth posted this morning. Morning. World's most powerful reset president, djt. So it seems like he agrees with you, Professor.
Professor John Mearsheimer
I don't know whether I should be happy about that or not.
Saagar Enjeti
Sign of the times, I guess.
Professor John Mearsheimer
Yeah, sign of the times.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, thank you so much, professor, for joining us. Any final words before you leave?
Professor John Mearsheimer
No, I just hope we get a ceasefire and then I hope they reach a quick conclusion to the negotiations so we can put this war behind us. I mean, when I think about all the damage that's being done around the world also, it would be really wonderful if somehow we could lean on the Israelis to stop running around the Middle east murdering people. It's truly amazing the number of people that the Israelis offers, often in cahoots with us, end up, you know, destroying huge chunks of countries like Lebanon and Iran and killing huge numbers of people. It would be really wonderful if we could put an end to all of this and create some sort of peace in the Middle east for the foreseeable future.
Saagar Enjeti
All right, well, on that note, thank you so much, Professor. I'm sure that we will be asking for more from you very soon. And until then, enjoy the rest of your weekend. Thank you.
Professor John Mearsheimer
You too as well. And thank you very much for having me on the show.
Krystal Ball
It's always our pleasure.
Mac Callahan
Thanks, Professor.
Jana Kramer
This is Jana Kramer from Wind down with Jana Kramer. Every Mother's Day, I tell myself I'm going to be more thoughtful than flowers, because flowers are beautiful. But they don't last in my house. Everyone always ends up in the kitchen. Friends, family, the kids. And I love having things around that spark conversation and feel special.
Emily Jashinsky
Special.
Jana Kramer
That's why I love the Lenox Spice Village and your mom will too. It's a set of 24 hand painted little houses that are actually spice jars. And I swear people notice it the second they walk in. It's charming. It's nostalgic and it somehow makes even everyday cooking feel a little more fun. And here's the best part. It actually gets used every day. Whether you're starting the full set or helping her complete one she's loved for years, there's a whole world of spice. Village Village to explore this Mother's Day. Give her something she'll treasure long after the card is put away. Trust me, once you see it, you'll want one too. Find the full collection@lenox.com SpiceVillage you already take magnesium.
Solaray Magnesium Ad Voice
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Martha Stewart
This is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret Getting ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper Just lightly wet the counter beforehand so the paper grips and stays in place. Then lay down the Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper so drips and spills stay on the paper, not all over your kitchen counter. You can roll out dough, prep a party spread, or cook alongside family. When you're done, cleanup is as simple as lifting the paper paper and revealing that clean counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking prep and even crafting, especially when you need extra working space. Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what matters. The food, the people, and the moment. It may look effortless, but now you know it's Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper. Take a tip from me. Wet it, set it, prep it. Done. Make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper, available now in the Reynolds wrap aisle in Walmart.
Saagar Enjeti
All right, welcome to the liberated second half of the Friday show that Ryan liberated. He stormed the Bastille and has set
Krystal Ball
free the second half of the Friday show.
Saagar Enjeti
Joe that's right.
Emily Jashinsky
So everyone Sagar sounded so Ryan posted this clip also on Instagram.
Ryan Grim
Ryan which was impressive, but Julian taught me how to do that.
Emily Jashinsky
Oh good.
Ryan Grim
Okay.
Emily Jashinsky
Sagar sounded like gritted teeth. He was announcing this through gritted teeth. Enjoy your Ryan runs this place now
Ryan Grim
Someone's got to make decisions around here.
Saagar Enjeti
And you, you know Sagar, if you want to make decisions on the Friday show, you're, you're welcome to join anytime.
Ryan Grim
Until then, you got the zoom link.
Krystal Ball
Y. I just like how I, I hadn't even been like read in on that this was a possibility before Ryan just announced it on you guys show.
Emily Jashinsky
I didn't know this was happening.
Mac Callahan
It was, it was floated on one of our production calls as a hypothetical and I was like, oh, Ryan already said that this morning. So it's, it's happening, it's done.
Emily Jashinsky
He's learned, he's learned he is like Benjamin Netanyahu. He has learned a dangerous lesson about how to negotiate with Crystal Sard on the ground.
Ryan Grim
Posting it's a TR. Truth.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, you just create facts on the ground and then it is, it is what it is. But anyway, we're grateful to be able to, glad to be able to share the entire Friday show with the whole world, so.
Saagar Enjeti
Absolutely. And on that note, why don't we get to a little bit of Crystal's best friend Alyssa Slotkin, who has been you know, doing town halls, potentially gearing up for a 2028 run. And there has been a tense town hall town hall between a few people and Alyssa. And I'm gonna play both of these videos back to back to get the, the full experience and then Crystal's reaction. So why don't we start with the first one here.
Mac Callahan
Going back to what was said over here. You have not taken money from AIPAC, but pro Israel lobbies and their donors have spent $4.5 million on your campaigns.
Professor John Mearsheimer
But I do have a question unrelated to that. I just wanted to ask add that
Mac Callahan
so I am curious why
Professor John Mearsheimer
left leaning media. Well, I guess mainstream media and establishment
Mac Callahan
Democrats are spending energy attacking
Ryan Grim
influencers like
Krystal Ball
Hasan Piker as has been in the news lately.
Mac Callahan
And why the Democratic establishment is just like immune to criticizing Democratic leadership like
Krystal Ball
Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer who are
Professor John Mearsheimer
some of the main drivers in the
Krystal Ball
reason that the Democratic Party is at its lowest approval rating in history.
Emily Jashinsky
Well, a couple of things. First, just to correct the record, I'm
Krystal Ball
not sure what you're referring to on not aipac but the Israel Lobby. If you're equating Israel Lobby to Jews, I got a problem with that. And that just like you wouldn't say, say the Iranian, that Iranians, whatever happens, the Iranian government does is what Iranian Americans believe.
Emily Jashinsky
I think it's really important especially now
Krystal Ball
to make a distinction between the Israeli government and the choices that they're making. And the average Jew. Okay. And Jewish.
Emily Jashinsky
You're the only one claiming there's not a distinction in that. Back and forth.
Krystal Ball
Yes.
Saagar Enjeti
So that's the first one. And now I'd like to present the follow up. This was a separate second questioner that came right, right after that gentleman there. Let's take a listen.
Emily Jashinsky
There was no indication that he was conflating those two. Just.
Krystal Ball
No, he. No, not at all. Quite the opposite.
Mac Callahan
First off, I wanted to say I found your response to the gentleman in front of me offensively. Bad faith to conflate support for Israel while they are committing genocide and while they just had a terror attack on Lebanon yesterday, killing almost 300 people. To conflate that with the Jewish identity. Identity. That is what anti Semitism looks like. But my question is, I am so tired of the Democratic Party villainizing the left, villainizing progressives. And we've seen it here where they've tried to push away progressive voices. How can we empower those progressive voices? Because you said you want to be a big tent, but right now it's not. You're not growing the tent, you're moving the tent away from its base.
Krystal Ball
Okay, let's start. I'll go around. Or maybe I'll start with you and come, come back. So what I take issue with is someone saying that I took $4.5 million from the pro Israel lobby. That's not APAC. I don't know what that is. But if that's counting Jewish donors and saying Jewish donors are somehow the same as pro Israel lobby, I got a problem with that. And not just as an elected official, as a Jew. So I have no problem standing by that same statement in terms of the progressive wing of the party. Look, I don't think there's anyone shoving anyone. Look at the election, like in New York City. Wow. I mean, all I can say is, good luck with your 2028 run, lady. Like, if you're already this fragile and lashing out like that at very basic and obvious questions, where the Democratic base at this point is overwhelmingly anti Israel, anti apac, they are going to be asking you about where you stand on these issues repeatedly. And if all you can do is immediately reach for insinuating that they're anti Semites for even asking about it, like, this is just. This is not going to work. This is not going to work for you whatsoever.
Emily Jashinsky
And in the most, like, theatrical, sanctimonious way that doesn't even give off a, like, ounce of Authenticity or sincerity that, like, it's, it's just going to the old talking points. Without ever appearing to have engaged in the recent discussion. You would think after her Breaking Points appearance, the senator would have tried to like, really understand in good faith where people were coming from on this. And it honestly, from that exchange looks like she's not familiar with the discourse and has just, just reflexively retreated to the old talking points.
Krystal Ball
No, I think she's familiar with the discourse. I mean, what's interesting to me is when she asked, she. She wanted to come on Breaking Points, right? She reached out to us. We're like, great, let's have you on. And we had that whole exchange. My impression in that exchange is she had realized that her lockstep pro Israel stance was now anathema to the base and she was trying to workshop some sort of a middle ground thing. And effectively there is no way, way to either you are, you know, supporting arms to a country that's funding a genocide, that's committing a genocide, or you're not. There's really not a middle ground that you can sort of carve out there. And so what I get from it, Ryan, is that she's sort of realized that and has decided, well, I'm gonna, I'm gonna be more hardline, pro Zionist. And I don't know how these 2028 contenders are so incredibly delusional to think that there's a lane for that that exists within the Democratic base, but there's just not, if you look at the numbers. And one other thing to add to this is there was a resolution being put forward at the DNC to, you know, to go AF directly go after APAC and condemn APAC and, you know, say we shouldn't take APAC money. And that got shut down. Reportedly, there were two 2028 contenders who intervened to make sure that that resolution was ultimately spiked. And as I went through the list of like, who could it be be, it is shocking to me how many. It's basically like almost any of them with, you know, except for like, Rokhanna and aoc, that would be potential suspects for getting involved despite the anti APAC resolution at the dnc.
Ryan Grim
So. So this figure seems to be coming from Track apac. And I, I've been going back and forth a bunch with track APAC about their, their methodology because now that they're becoming, you know, a significant part of the conversation, I've been telling them, like, you, you need to tighten up and, and be clear about what you're, what you're saying here and they act, they, they're telling me that they're actually, they're doing that. They're, they're working on that. And so they delineated some of the money here. So she's 21, 22, 14,000. Now California Jewish Democrats. This, they got dunked on because it's like this is her exact point. And $250. Is that, is that a typo? But California Jewish Democrats, Democrats. Isn't this her point that you're flagging Jewish Democrats and calling them apac? Turns out, no, this, this organization used to, used to be called something like California Jewish Democrats for AIPAC or for Israel and dropped, just dropped the name. But they should be clear about this knowing that they're under fire here. DMFI 4k joint action committees. So J street 280,000 pro Israel America is kind of to the right of APAC and nacpac. I think they're kind of a little bit more to the right of apac, but that's only a few hundred thousand here. To get to the 4 million, you need this one down here. Lobby donors. 4 million. So that's a key question. What do they mean by lobby donors? My understanding is they mean people who have donated to J Street or apac, which will include a lot of evangelical Christians but can also slot into Slotkins argument. So like, is it, if, if it's true that you're saying anybody who donated to J Street at any point is then forever going to be considered Israel Lobby. Like, you got to be clear about that and let people decide whether or not they want to factor that in. That's, that's, that's my view.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Well, in fairness though, I mean, Ryan, you can, you can tell me if I'm wrong about this, but one of the strategies that AIPAC has been using since they recognize they're so toxic now in Democratic primary races in particular, is rather than having people donate through aipac, they have people donate separately, individually who are known APAC donors. So I mean it is a tricky, it is tricky how to characterize that and how to get the right group here identified and there.
Ryan Grim
So there's a, and there's a super PAC that has been getting in to kind of fight against apac and what, what they've been trying to do is develop this algorithm to, to try to find those donors and the. Because some, some, somebody might just give to J Street and not be part of like a big kind of APAC conspiracy. But you're right, APAC does do that. And so what they've been trying to do is say, okay, if on the same day. And, and because of like, basically AI and Claude and others, like, it's. It's easier to start figuring this stuff out. Okay, on the. If. If you in the same cycle gave to like Steve Scalise, Alyssa Slock, you know, or like, you know, Haley Stevens or like any like these, these like, clear people that like AIPAC is directing money to isn't actually Slotkin. But let's. So let's say Haley, he gave to Haley Stevens, some other APAC candidate. And then also Scalise, it's like. And all of your donations are like all of these top APAC people. It's like, okay, we're tagging you as somebody who is clearly really like part of this network. Because you're right, APAC does this. They have these private links where they will send out an email to like thousands of people saying, here's a private link. We're not endorsing this person publicly, but we suggest that you do so you. That you give them the max donation. And for transparency, you want the public to know that this, that they're trying to evade public disclosure. Um, so you, so you now track AAPAC is like two people or three people or something. They don't have, they don't have that put together yet. But I, I think they can get there. But until they do, it's going to be, it's. It's going to leave some kind of gray area which then is going to allow Slotkin to be like, oh, you're just saying that I'm getting money from Jews.
Krystal Ball
Right, Right. But, you know, for her to say, like, if she was talking to the track APAC people and she had that respect response and disagreeing with them on their methodology, it's one thing you have multi. There were, I think, three different constituents here that asked her similar questions. And to take them in the most bad faith and assume that they are intentionally lumping in every Jewish person who's ever donated to her and making this blanket statement. I mean, not only is it, it's so. It's really, really gross to throw around claims of bigotry that are unfounded.
Emily Jashinsky
It.
Krystal Ball
That is a very aggressive thing to do. And so you're insinuating that, you know, these people who want to know about where you stand and why you stand there, to immediately hurl that accusation is just really gross. And also, you know, for her, from a political standpoint, I think it's a very bad look because she Just comes off super defensive and super fragile about again a question that she has to have anticipated receiving because, because she's a smart person. She's, you know, I definitely came, you know, away from that with, from my exchange with her. She's very intelligent person and she knows where the polls are, she knows what kind of question she's going to get and this is the best that you can come up with. You know, it's not, I don't think politically it looks very good for her.
Ryan Grim
Real quickly. Yeah, totally agree with that. And in track apex defense it is 100% track. True that AIPAC tries very hard to hide its involvement in supporting these candidates. Like that is a fact. And so that if, if you want to expose their involvement then you have to go figuring out how they're moving their money through and if they make, if they make one mistake on that, you can't say, oh, the entire thing is, you know, bigoted and, and can be dismissed. It's like AIPAC has set up this trap by being so secretive about its money. If AIPAC would just do what every other lobby does and say we, we support this person because they support our values and we're proud to endorse them. If they would just do that, we wouldn't need any of this.
Saagar Enjeti
Well, they do it after their candidate wins.
Ryan Grim
Actually this would be a decent place to talk about the polling if you want to.
Emily Jashinsky
Well, if you want to do that, want to make a quick point about,
Saagar Enjeti
I'll pull it up while you talk.
Emily Jashinsky
There's, there's something interesting in this that she's trying to be this third way type candidate on culture war issues where she's trying to kind of reject the peak woke Democratic Party.
Saagar Enjeti
It's time to be normal.
Emily Jashinsky
Yeah, right. But what's so interesting about that is one of the big lessons and like we talked about this during that time period, one of the big lessons is that it's very alienating and offensive when you use lump definition inflation terms of bigotry and assume that somebody who disagrees with you on a policy question is necessarily categorically a bigot. That was a huge problem for Democrats during the like 2020 era. It did alienate a lot of voters. Like there's polling on that. That's, that was a real thing. And now to see her try to be someone who rejects that framework of the binary. You're either with us or you're a bigot. She's doing it to her own voters once again because they don't agree with her. On a policy question.
Krystal Ball
Well, and the Hasan thing fits in that with that too, because she would have been one of the. I don't know if she specifically said this, but she would be the type to be. Kamala should have gone on Rogan, we need to meet people where they're at, blah, blah, blah. And then it's like, okay, Hasan piker. Absolutely not.
Mac Callahan
Yeah, yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
She said on Bill Maher, we need to be alpha again. We need male alpha energy again, but not Hasan.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Mac Callahan
Well, two quick things that I'll add on that before we get to the polling. Number one, it's incredible to hear from somebody like Alyssa Slotkin this, you know, attacking the conflation of the Jewish people with the state of Israel when the biggest perpetrator of that conflation has been the Israeli government and the US Government, by extension of some of the most hardcore pro Israel politicians in this country, constantly conflating the actions of the Israeli government with the Jewish people. As, you know, it's in its entirety. So, you know, I think there has been some element of an increase in anti Semitism because of this intentional effort to confuse people as to that. And ironically, it's the left, it is the most hardcore pro Palestine people, the most hardcore Israel critics who are constantly making an explicit effort to draw that distinction and say, no, no, no, we're not talking about Jewish people as, as a whole, we're talking about the Israeli government. So I found that to be incredible there. And then point number two that I think it's important for us to keep in mind is like the Israel lobby stuff is an important litmus test because I think people just get the feeling that if you're willing to openly take this money, you're kind of just admitting this baseline level of corruption that you're going to be engaging in as an elected representative. But the more important thing to me at least, is the policy. It's, are you going to cut off weapon shipments to Israel? Are you willing to sanction Israel? What? How do you view the US Israeli relationship moving forward? Because you may have some pro Israel Democrats who say, oh, I'm not taking AIPAC money, or I'm not taking any sort of pro Israel money. And then their position on Israel is still horrendous from any, you know, left wing perspectives. So we gotta, like, be specific about exactly what they're actually running on.
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Saagar Enjeti
So Ryan, we've got your polling here
Ryan Grim
that I'm going to pull up and Griffin let me, let me actually pull it up because I have a separate one that has the cross tabs with ages that I think you'll like. So to max point we actually, so we actually pulled this specific question question. So we Zateo and drop site went out into the field in Michigan with, with a poll and we did the top lines. I think it was. We'll look at it. We can look at it exactly. But I think it was 22, 2221 at that, you know, between the three candidates and with El Sayed like one point behind the other two or it was 23, 23 22. Either way it's like a dead heat.
Krystal Ball
Wow.
Ryan Grim
But to what we asked some interesting questions as, as we do. We asked about Hassan Piker. But hold, hold, hold that for one second. So to max point I asked this question because I wanted to get, I wanted to see where this is Democratic primary voters in Michigan and I, I wanted to test max proposition here. So we said so do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Statement. If a candidate is not willing to stand up to aipac, I am less likely to trust them to stand up for Michiganders on other issues and across the board. So if you look down here at agree at the bottom across the board the, the minimum is kind of plus 40 and that's moderates. So moderate Democrats vote likely voters in the in the primary by a 55 to 15 margin with the rest saying they don't know. Say that yes, it is a proxy to them for whether they will stand up for other things. Obviously under 45 people under 45, it's plus 54 overall the top line plus 49. So 62% of Democratic primary voters in Michigan. Michigan say that how you stand up when it comes to APAC determines for them whether or not you're going to fight for them on other issues. And this is the most interesting.
Krystal Ball
Sorry, real quick. The most interesting thing though from that cross tab to me though Ryan is where you have you ask people okay, you know, if it's the El Sayed voter, how do they feel about it versus McMurra versus Stevens. And I think people mostly know but El Sayed as the like Bernie left candidate, Morrow, you can kind of think of like Elizabeth Warren, she's trying to be the Goldilocks candidate and then Steve Stevens is like the Chuck Schumer picked backed candidate and you know McMurrow has been trying to again find this middle ground on Israel and use language that signals she's with the base, but not totally go in there. And she has thrown in on the side of Hassan Piker is aligned too far and kind of affiliated herself more with the Stevens Schumer side of the equation. And so if you look at these numbers here, you see for the EL Sayed graph, voters 91, it's plus 91 for. Yeah, no, if you are not going to stand up to APAC, like, I want nothing to do with you. And McMorrow and Stevens, interestingly are at the same level of only plus 33.
Ryan Grim
Right.
Krystal Ball
So you can see that already McMarrow is being more associated by the electorate with the, you know, more pro Israel, pro, more pro Zionist side, even though she's tried to kind of split the difference here. That's very interesting to see.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Mac Callahan
Well, one other thing I was just going to add on to that is I think it's, you know, incredible that people like, you know, Slotkin frame themselves as the moderates on this question when according to their own base of voters, they're actually the extremists on this question. They're in the minority when it comes to this.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, they're the fringe. Absolutely.
Ryan Grim
So here's a related question below are actions that a candidate could take for each, please say if the action would make you more, more or less likely to support. The candidate receives political donations from AIPAC and other pro Israel groups. And so you can just see the bloodbath at the bottom there with the, you know, more, more, more likely negative means they're less, you know, you, you see, so it's, it's weird like the way it phrases. But the negative means they don't, they don't like this. So if you, yeah, if you look at Steve Stevens, people are 26% less likely to support or 49% less likely. 26%. 49 to 23. You guys see it. People are less likely to support Stevens, Stevens voters by 49 to 23 if she takes AIPAC money. So that's Stevens own voters for McMorrow, it's 65 to 8. So if McMorrow starts to be seen, seen as the candidate who is taking APAC money or is supported by APAC aligned.
Krystal Ball
Yeah.
Ryan Grim
Then now for say it is 86 to one. I like the one.
Krystal Ball
I know. Exactly. Imagine being the person who's like, I love APAC and I'm voting for Abdul Al Sayed.
Ryan Grim
That person is not paying attention to the poll and is just like just going through it. Do you want. Let's now the Hasan. We gotta. We got some Hassan questions here. The, like, most people don't know who Hassan is. Like, that's, that's the, that's the takeaway from this. Now, when it comes to people under 45 years old, you've got only 18 here. Here we go. Under 45. New. New or we're like, most familiar with him, obviously. So the question, you know, they should. Should he do the event with Hassan Piker plus 10 is what it comes out to. 40% approve, 30% disapprove. The rest don't know. But when it comes to people under 45, it's a. It's plus 18. The only people who really don't like it are Stevens vote voters. So they disapproved by 27 points. Moderate destiny viewers. Yeah, moderate Destiny viewers. Moderates are 11 points underwater. McMorrow. Interestingly, who kicked this off?
Emily Jashinsky
Her.
Ryan Grim
People approve of it by a plus three margin. You guys will like this. And we asked people where they get their news. And actually people are still pretty heavily getting their news who are primary voters, like 40 from, like CNN. And doesn't surprise me, but look at, look at Breaking Point Sato Drop Site. We said. We. We asked them about independent news outlets like Sato Drop Site News and, and breaking points for people under 45. Where is that?
Mac Callahan
24%.
Ryan Grim
24%. So a quarter of.
Mac Callahan
Pretty good.
Krystal Ball
That's pretty good.
Ryan Grim
It's creeping up. So 13% overall of Democratic primary votes voters answered yes to independent news now.
Krystal Ball
And a third of El Sayed voters.
Ryan Grim
Yep. Which makes sense. And 3% of Stevens voters are watching this show. Wow.
Krystal Ball
Stevens.
Emily Jashinsky
Hey, ladies.
Ryan Grim
Sitting there seething. But now if you add in YouTube. YouTube is 27%. Interestingly tied with Facebook and podcasts. 22%. Instagram 19. Blue sky not doing so great down here at 6, 7.
Krystal Ball
And did you find that. Did you find Elad voters tended to be the youngest of the, you know, the three candidates.
Ryan Grim
Let's see.
Krystal Ball
That would also correlate with the, you know, more independent, Independent media watchers.
Ryan Grim
Yeah, let's see. Okay. Abdul Al said so favorable or unfavorable. So under 45, plus 41. So certainly his highest favorability rating is among those. Stevens is just plus four with people under 45. Let's see how much Moro's doing. Memorial is plus two with people under 45. Oh, here's Hassan.
Krystal Ball
Interesting.
Ryan Grim
Here's Hassan Piker. Haven't heard enough to say. Okay, yeah, here's the number. So for people under 45, 58% don't really have an opinion on Piker. So 42% do. Which is the highest number overall? 80% of primary voters are just like, I don't know, like.
Mac Callahan
So with all this focus on this, most people are basically like I don't even know who you're talking about right now.
Ryan Grim
Right. Yes. Even Google searches, 54% of El said voters are like what are you talking about?
Krystal Ball
Don't know.
Mac Callahan
So I think we can pull out of this, Ryan. But one final question that I had, I noticed on the far right with the initial undecideds on most of these questions, it seems like it's like very aggressively splitting in the. I don't want to vote for somebody who takes Israel lobby money. You know, with the election being as close as it is, where do you think it's going to go into the future? Do you think that'll have a major impact or it's a side thing or.
Ryan Grim
Yeah. Before I pull out last thing. So yeah, it's 22, 22. So Stevens 23, McMorrow 22. El Sayed 22 is what our polling is showing. But this is really interesting and don't tell Schumer this, but this is why Schumer is now signaling that he was wants Stevens to drop out. That's how I'm perceiving the signals coming out of DC. Who's your second choice? McMorrow is the second choice of 38% of people, whereas Elide is only the second choice of 13% and Stevens is 22. And so a head to head against Elide and McMoro. McMorrow was up eight points over El Said. And so you started to see Schumer and Schumer's so unpopular that he can't even say this publicly. But there's been, there's been like reporting that Schumer is okay with McMorrow now recognizing that Steven the only way El Sayed can win is if Steven stays in. That seems to be Schumer's view.
Krystal Ball
That's probably why McMarrow has decided to take this stance on Hasan Piker, et cetera, et cetera, to make herself palatable to the Chuck Schumer's of the world. So you know, sort of playing.
Ryan Grim
She has to knock Stevens out.
Krystal Ball
Stevens out.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Well let's, let's see a clip from this infamous Abdul El Sayed and Hassan Piker town hall meetup where one free press enterprising journalist known as Olivia Rheingold asked Abdul a question. Let's take a listen.
Krystal Ball
We're going to take two more questions. I'm sorry, we're going to have to
Emily Jashinsky
move on to the next person.
Krystal Ball
I'm sorry, Olivia.
Ryan Grim
Olivia.
Emily Jashinsky
As a Jewish state.
Krystal Ball
Olivia.
Ryan Grim
So I'd love to take the question.
Mac Callahan
I'd love to take a question, actually.
Martha Stewart
Thank you.
Emily Jashinsky
What do you mean by Jewish state?
Ryan Grim
I. I feel if you can't define
Mac Callahan
their question, I'm not going to answer your question.
Krystal Ball
We're going to move on to the next person.
Saagar Enjeti
All right. So that was the video that went around the world and then Olivia and then Olivia.
Ryan Grim
Boring video ever.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes. But then Olivia went on to do a ride write up of her experience there. She says Abdul El Sayed, who is Muslim, walks a fine line on the Jewish state. On Tuesday night, he told the crowd, as he does often, that his problem is not with Jews. So then later that night, in a makeshift spin room assembled by the campaign, he rebuffed my question on whether he believes in Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state. What do you mean by a Jewish state? He retorted, narrowing his eyes. If you can't answer that question, I'm not going to answer. Answer it. For someone who often waves around his respect for Judaism, he seemed unaware of something. Elementary Judaism is not only a religion, but a people with a long standing connection to Israel that runs through its prayers, traditions and histories. Which some people said was not the quote.
Krystal Ball
Well, okay, so first of all, it's not the quote. That's not what he said. I do think they ultimately, under pressure, corrected it to at least say the correct quote. But there were many zoom ins of Abdul's eyes at that moment where he narrowed them Muslimly. I think he may have blinked, but I don't. We don't typically call that narrowing of the eyes. But anyway, narrowing of the eyes stayed in. And I mean, can you imagine if someone wrote an article about Olivia Rheingold or. We started this segment, Olivia Rheingold, who is a Jew, blah, blah, blah.
Ryan Grim
I don't think she's happy.
Saagar Enjeti
No, she's in October 8th.
Krystal Ball
She's in October 8th.
Professor John Mearsheimer
Yes.
Ryan Grim
But did she actually convert or like, what's going on?
Saagar Enjeti
She's working on it. There's a lot of people, paperwork.
Krystal Ball
You get my point.
Ryan Grim
Know when the paperwork's in, you know,
Krystal Ball
like, so we can properly characterize your religions. And that's apparently an important part.
Ryan Grim
She's written, she's. That her dad was Jewish and her mom isn't. So she's not Jewish. Like, that's her.
Krystal Ball
Well, it's about, I mean, some Reform Congregations would say she is. Whatever. Anyway, in the process, yes, I believe she sees herself as Jewish, and I would like to honor that. But can you imagine the freak out if we started the segment by saying, you know, Olivia Reingold, a Jew, did X or Y or Z. It's very obviously racist. It's also weird. Imagine if someone talked about me and was like, Crystal Ball, who is agnostic, says, etc, Etc, like, why do we do it? Why do we need to know that?
Saagar Enjeti
A woman, Right?
Krystal Ball
But it's, I mean, it's very obvious what she's doing here. She wants to make him sound sinister. She wants to make him sound anti Semitic, even though he did nothing wrong. And in fact, that question that he asked her, that's a great question. What do you mean by a Jewish state? And she fumbles around, around before he said, okay, well, if you can't define it, then I'm not going to answer the question. It's very, it's giving very much tucker. When he was interviewed by, I think, the lady at the Economist, and she said, do you, you know, do you believe Israel has a right to exist? And he said, well, what do you mean by that? And she couldn't answer the question of what she meant by that. And the problem for someone like Olivia answering that question is that if you answer it honestly, what you're laying out as an ethno supremacist apartheid state, and it clashes very obviously with liberal values. This is why Zoran's answer of I support Israel as a state with equal rights is so brilliant and devastating. Because it shows, like, how can you object to that? If you object to that, you're rejecting, like, the most obvious basic principles of liberalism. So that's why it was such an intelligent question on his part. Okay, well, clarify. What do you mean by a Jewish state? Because if you just mean a state where, you know, Jewish people have the same race rights as Muslim people or anyone else, then sure, fine. But the problem is that's not what she means. And she has never explained what she actually means by that.
Emily Jashinsky
It's like if we were doing a segment on driving and identified Crystal as a woman. Crystal ball, a woman. No, but really like it. It's just like nobody. Yes, yes, but no, I agree. I think, like, that her response in the piece to what appears to be not even the accurate quote is so patronizing. And it's patronizing to the point where it's out of touch with the reality that, again, if you engaged in good faith with Abdul Said, you would obviously not Think that about him because he, he's. She even says in the piece he, like, what did she say? Hand waves about how he understands Judaism and respects Judaism. Obviously he understands all of that. So either you're not understanding his position or you're taking a cheap shot.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Mac Callahan
And Olivia also seems to be sort of like a Hassan Piker stalker, which is weird. And I think, like, in a broader sense, like they're making. And this goes for like Dana Bash on CNN and Jake Tapper and all these other people who have been doing relentless segments on Hasan recently. It's like, as Griffin pointed out, the Google searches for Hasan Piker are skyrocketing. He's probably gaining more subs now than he has in a long time. Like, they're making him to be a kingmaker when he really just like, wasn't before. Like maybe some influence with, you know, some degree of young people around the fringes. But I think at the end of the day, for a huge bulk of the Democratic Party that is critical of his Israel, that is, you know, against the Israel lobby and whatever else, it's like you're kind of just showing them, oh, hey, look, here's a political commentator over here. Here's a candidate who agrees with you on these questions. So they're just going to end up like it's going to backfire and they're just going to end up pushing more and more people, you know, towards these spaces they want them to avoid.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah. And Olivia, if she is desperate to find people running for office that are anti Semitic, there's plenty of options for her to find those people. One that I actually just searched her Twitter for James Fishback, running in Florida. I did a quick search on Olivia's Twitter to see what she said about James Fishback, and I was only able to find a few positive replies to James Fishback, including this one where she says, December 31, 2024.
Professor John Mearsheimer
4.
Saagar Enjeti
Ah, thank you for sharing. You're the incredible one.
Emily Jashinsky
That's. That's back before James Fishback had his transformation, which happened in like the last six months out of absolutely nowhere. He was a free contributor praising Barry.
Ryan Grim
Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes.
Krystal Ball
Before he realized he was being fed goy slop. That's.
Saagar Enjeti
That's right.
Krystal Ball
Prior to that, him realizing.
Saagar Enjeti
Yes. So anyways, I'd love an update or like a follow up on the Fishback campaign if we're rooting out anti Semitism in the candidates run.
Emily Jashinsky
I promise you that's, that is almost certainly coming.
Saagar Enjeti
All right, well, we got a big final segment that we have to get to that. Crossed all of our desks late afternoon yesterday. And of course I'm speaking about. About Melania Trump who came out to speak about Epstein. Why don't we take a listen?
Professor John Mearsheimer
The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today. The individuals lying about me are devoid of ethical standards, humility and respect.
Emily Jashinsky
I do not object to their ignorance,
Professor John Mearsheimer
but rather I reject their mean spirited attempts to defame my reputation. I never been friends with Epstein. Donald and I were invited to the same parties as Epstein from time to time since overlapping in in social circles is common in New York City and Palm Beach. To be clear, I never had a relationship with Epstein or his accomplice Maxwell.
Ryan Grim
My email reply to Maxwell cannot be
Professor John Mearsheimer
categorized as anything more than casual correspondence.
Emily Jashinsky
My polite reply to her email doesn't
Professor John Mearsheimer
amount to anything more than a tribal note.
Emily Jashinsky
I am not Epstein's victim.
Ryan Grim
Epstein did not introduce me to Donald Trump.
Emily Jashinsky
I met my husband by chance at the New York city party in 1980, 1998. It's the best part. This initial encounter with my husband is
Professor John Mearsheimer
documented in a detail in my book Melania.
Krystal Ball
Buy the book people, for which we
Ryan Grim
all have some copies of.
Emily Jashinsky
Also referring to your husband is Donald Trump. Like Crystal's like. You can read about my initial meeting with my husband Kyle Kalinsky in my book Crystal.
Jana Kramer
Crystal.
Krystal Ball
Yes. I mean it's really the. It's literally the meme where it's like no one, absolutely no one in the. Melania. I was not friends with Jeffrey Epstein. I barely knew the guy.
Emily Jashinsky
It's like, what can I say? My theory.
Krystal Ball
Yeah, tell me.
Emily Jashinsky
Okay, because they're, they're competing theories and I'm not like 100 sure of this, but Trump told Ms. Now that he did not know this was going to happen. So a debate whether or not that true. My theory is that Melania Trump spent January and February seething over the allegations that she. Because she is in emails with Ghislaine Maxwell, she has this. What she characterized as a reply appears to actually have been an email to Ghislaine Maxwell which I have pulled up here where she says something like looking forward to the. Yeah, here's the email. She says something to the extent of like G addresses her as G. It's almost certainly gain Maxwell. It's a. Someone based in New York named Galain says nice story about J E in NY Mag. You look great on the picture. I know you are very busy flying all over the world. How was Palm Beach? I cannot wait to go down. Give me A call when you are back in ny. Have a great time. Love, Melania. And then Maxwell replies, Sweet pea, thanks for your message. Actually, plans changed again and now I'm on my way back to ny. I leave again on Friday, so I still do not think I have time to see you, sadly. I will try and call though. The implication here is that they had a close enough relationship where Maxwell is referring to her Sweet pea, she's referring to Ghislaine as G. The dates do match that New York Mag story on Jeffrey Epstein and they are have a relationship where they call each other. So that's what was revealed. I think Melania spent January and February being upset because her reputation is getting dragged through the mud. But reasonably so, given these emails back and forth with Maxwell and then her husband launched a war before she could launch a response to Epstein. She was told, there's no way that you can address this when we're at war. But as soon as there's a ceasefire, you can can literally, like the next day she comes out out of nowhere and gets it done as quickly as possible in case the ceasefire falls apart. This is my theory.
Krystal Ball
It's just so weird because no one was thinking about her. Like, the Epstein coverage was successfully buried by the war. And then you just come out. I'll show you what the, the sort of dominant Internet theory is right now. So this requires a little bit of backstory. Of course, obviously Melania, you know, is from Eastern Europe. She was brought to the U.S. she came as a model. Model. And so. And this very close Trump friend who's a former modeling agent named Paolo Zampoli, is the guy who helped her secure her visa to be able to come and stay in the U.S. well, this guy is actually now in the administration and he asked ICE to arrest his former Brazilian girlfriend, who also was, you know, a model and potentially also underage, potentially when she was first in this whole network. But anyway, she's the father of their teenage son and he asked ICE to arrest her. Well, she is now, apparently she's out on Twitter. Like, I will just, I know everything about Donald and Melania. I'm going to spill. I'm going to ruin everything. I have nothing left to lose. And it just came out that she apparently recorded an interview with a Spanish language channel that is set to air this weekend. So maybe that's what is going on here because she certainly has been going out there and saying that she has the goods, that she's going to spill the tea, et cetera. Because of course, what people Think when they see this thing from Milani is like, what is she trying to get ahead of here? Because none of us were thinking about you or talking about you in this way at all, girl. So what is up with this? And you know, I mean that's the most obvious explanation is that there's some story or some development that's about to happen that she wanted to get out there and front of.
Emily Jashinsky
Pos.
Krystal Ball
I guess everyone agrees.
Emily Jashinsky
Yeah, it's just like nobody knows because it's out of absolutely left field.
Mac Callahan
I'm just loving this like circular, like little spiral that we're in of like distract from the Epstein files by going to war with Iran and then distract from the war with Iran with. By bringing back up the Epstein files. So we might, who knows where are we going to go to war more next.
Krystal Ball
But we're back with the run again. We always get back in that one. Any, any second that could happen, that could be happening right now as we're speaking. So I don't know. I mean, it does just remind, I guess too of what I mean, the Trump administration is just a mess. Trump is truly it's disaster on all fronts because even, okay, let's say that he agrees to the Iranian surrender conditions. I mean, that is a devastating. Well, he's going to have a very hard time selling that as victory to anyone, including his own base, let alone the world. So you've got that mess and then it frees everybody up, you know, Ryan and co to get back on the. The Epstein files reporting, which was already an utter disaster for him. And we just had numbers that came out this morning, a very hot inflation reading, so prices going back up, of course, gas prices are extremely high. The economy is very shaky. Shaky. The AI bubble seems on the verge of collapse and you know, midterm elections around the corner that are likely to deal a devastating blow. So little reminder of just how bad the whole landscape is for this administration at this, this point.
Mac Callahan
It's a golden age.
Krystal Ball
That's what it really feels like.
Saagar Enjeti
Do we want to play that video you sent me, Crystal? It's a little long. I'm not really sure that's okay.
Krystal Ball
I think it was. It was that guy Paolo, the modeling agent, saying that, you know, talking about that relationship and saying that he was the one who introduced Melania to Trump. Because, you know, I mean, the.
Emily Jashinsky
That's what I read in Melania.
Krystal Ball
Well, and here's the other thing is. That's right, exactly. And then, um, the, the other thing is there's allegations that have been made by Michael Wolf that Melania has threatened to sue him over, including that Epstein had had a relationship with Melania prior to Trump and that Trump and Melania, this again is his allegations and she threatened over it. So I am not saying that this is what happened, but he claims that they had sex for the first time on his plate plane and that there was obviously like deep entanglement there. And this whole modeling world is so incredibly disgusting and was rampantly used for human trafficking. And that's, that's well documented. And so the, you know, the Trump and Epstein and John Casablancas and this Paolo guy, like all in that cesspool of a world is, you know, is obviously very noteworthy as well.
Saagar Enjeti
Yep. Well, on that note, it's been a jam packed show, but I will not, not do some AMA questions here at the end. Let's hit a few right off the bat. Rapid fire here to take us out on this Friday. This one is to Emily from Nelso. Oh, sorry. This is For Emily from Sabas 101. For Emily. With the rise of Catholicism in younger generations and the growing dissatisfaction with the Iran war, will Zionist evangelicals denominations decline in membership and power in politics?
Emily Jashinsky
I mean, I think actually it's the, it's sort of the inverse in that what would be called dispensationalism. So this idea that biblical Israel and the modern nation state of Israel are interchangeable, that you have to read that into prophecies and scriptures, scripture, I think that's actually just declining among evangelical voters who previously had been attached to that and a very particular political Zionism because of it. I think, you know, it's just like younger people, Gen Z evangelicals have I think really moved away from it. So it's not so much that the denominations are declining. Catholicism is actually continuing to decline. There are more younger Catholics. Like there's obviously something going on, but it's, it's declining in the United States. So actually I think what's, what's really happening is it's not so much the denomination or it's not so much that the evangelical churches are losing members or anything like that so much as it is the members are less likely to be dispensationalists the younger they are.
Saagar Enjeti
Gotcha. All right, this next one is for crystal from Jacob RP273. Crystal, do you think if Israel does deploy a nuclear bomb that Trump will have the guts to do anything to about it? Do you think his need to protect himself from getting exposed will outweigh the ethical obligation to permanently restrain Israel.
Krystal Ball
I don't see any evidence of Trump reigning in Israel at this point. So not very, not very hopeful in that regard. I mean, but look, his, his options, you know, whether a nuclear weapon is deployed or not are all impossible for him. So, you know, it's hard to see him standing up to Israel. It's also hard for, to see him staying in a war that's destroying the entire economy and entire, entire global economy. It's hard to see him accepting the Iranian surrender demands. It's just all of these things are going to be very painful for him. So, you know, your guess is as good as mine. Which of the extremely painful for Donald Trump options he's going to choose at this point.
Saagar Enjeti
All right, this next one is for Ryan. More of a statement, but you can still react to it from, from Nick Strickland. You guys should start a new segment called Ryan's Message to the White House House where Ryan directly addresses Trump plus his admin and maybe offers advice. We will all pretend like it doesn't have an effect
Ryan Grim
stood. My services are already working. I, I'm, I'm here to serve the country. Yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Very nice, Very nice. And I'll throw this one to Mac, the final one today. This is from Hamster Wheel. AMA question. Are you aware either through your own analysis or via told top down, when a news story seems to be a limited hangout? Could the fine BP crew speak to the concept of limited hangout? Do all breaking stories go through this process or is it just Epstein?
Emily Jashinsky
Usually when I see the byline. Natasha Bertrand.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, Emily, you have takes on this, Mac. Do you have any? Do you?
Mac Callahan
Yeah, go for it, Emily.
Emily Jashinsky
No, no, no. I just often the byline and the sourcing. But that's probably what you were to going to say, Mac.
Mac Callahan
Yeah,
Ryan Grim
well, I just stole Matt's question. I mean, we got, you got to tell people what the concept is. If they don't know, everyone's at a different stage of their life's journey. Limited hangout means you're, you have an enormous amount of stuff that you're hiding and you put a tiny piece out of it to try to kind of settle the issue and get people to move on.
Krystal Ball
So like the Epstein file release is kind of the definition of a limited hangout and we know that it is because there's some millions more. We don't even know how much files that are being hidden, but they're like here public, here's a little drip. Drip files. Are we done?
Ryan Grim
We're done with it.
Krystal Ball
Stop Talking about it, that is like definitionally limited hangout. And. But that's, you know, a common technique that's used like information, you know, operation kind of.
Ryan Grim
And a feature of it is to put people in the wrong direction. Like, you put a little bit of it out that seems to implicate somebody over here when actually the real thing is over here. So you get some of the information, but you get everybody chasing the wrong laser.
Krystal Ball
Yeah. Or it's like you take a little bit of damage, but to avoid the more significant damage, something's going on. Yeah.
Ryan Grim
You're under too much pressure.
Krystal Ball
And that gives credibility to the idea people have gotten the truth when really the thing that would be more devastating is still being hit.
Ryan Grim
Right. Trump's attempt to be like, yeah, this was actually all just Bill Clinton and Democrats is. Is a good example, like, all right, fine, you got me. I'll give you the information on Epstein. It was the Democrats.
Saagar Enjeti
Okay.
Ryan Grim
I didn't want to share that, but you forced it out of me. Gotcha.
Saagar Enjeti
All right, Mac, maybe this will be a one that you have something more to say about. Patrick Mulligan says hello, everyone. It is good to be able to criticize friends and allies in that sp. What is your most serious criticism of Hasan? Do you have any Hasan piker criticisms?
Mac Callahan
I mean, yeah, I don't, I don't think we're like perfectly on in line on, on everything. I don't know, I mean, nothing crazy. I feel like he can have some cringe takes sometimes. I feel like he gets involved in some of the drama stuff and some of the sort of like slop stuff a lot more than I, I would personally. But, you know, maybe that's more his wheelhouse. Like he has a lot of people who find him through those kinds of avenues and he does a lot of content outside of just like strict news coverage or political commentary or whatever. But yeah.
Saagar Enjeti
Yeah, when you stream for eight hours a day, you're probably gonna say some things you regret.
Mac Callahan
Yeah.
Krystal Ball
And get into some. Delve into some drama and yeah, you got a lot of time in that eight hours to explore all facets of our E Universe.
Saagar Enjeti
We get in enough trouble in two hours, so I can't imagine eight. That's going to do it for us this Friday. Thank you, everyone. Welcome to the new rang, the Freedom Freedom Rings Freedom Free Friday show.
Mac Callahan
Comrade Ryan, welcome to all the Haley
Krystal Ball
Stevens voters who absolutely hated watching this but did it anyway.
Saagar Enjeti
We tip our hat to you and of course, if anything major breaking happens over the weekend. Weekend, we will be unlike Abdul Sayed, keeping our eyes wide open for anything that occurs over the weekend. And if not, we'll see you on Monday. Goodbye, everybody.
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Episode Summary - April 10, 2026
Title: Trump Trashes Tucker, Mearsheimer Calls For Trump Surrender, Slotkin Lashes Out, Melania Epstein
This episode dives into the escalating fallout from the Iran war, the fractured U.S.-Israel relationship, the plummeting power of establishment lobbies like AIPAC, and a swirl of media and political drama from the White House down to social media influencers. Analysis is bolstered by a long-form interview with Professor John Mearsheimer—a critical voice on U.S. foreign policy—who calls Trump’s current position a "surrender." The crew also breaks down town hall drama with Rep. Alyssa Slotkin, Melania Trump’s surprising Epstein statement, and the role of new media power players.
Timestamp: 02:20–16:00
Trump’s Social Media Rants:
Trump lashes out on True Social over Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blaming Iran for not adhering to “the agreement.”
Krystal Ball (03:28): “It reminds me very much of when my son was three years old and he was playing Uno for the first time ... and then someone screwed it up and he just completely crashed down, was like, that wasn’t the plan.”
Ryan Grim: Iran’s leverage is rooted in their control of the Strait and their willingness to charge tolls—nothing was ever clearly agreed to contrary.
Israel, Lebanon, and the Failed Ceasefire:
Ryan Grim (05:25): “The deal as Trump understood it, as Iran understood it, as it was explained publicly, included Lebanon.” But ongoing Israeli bombardment violated the deal, causing Iran to re-close the strait.
Diplomatic Deadlock and Leverage:
Iran’s ability to close the Strait functions as a “nuclear deterrent” short of actual nukes.
Krystal Ball (12:03): “They’ve demonstrated they already have a nuclear weapon with their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz...”
U.S. Desperation For a Ceasefire:
Ryan Grim (09:12): “The US was begging for the ceasefire. Iran was ignoring them.”
The administration is panicked about a global recession fueled by oil blockages.
Timestamp: 15:15–20:50
White House warns staff against betting on prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) relating to war outcomes.
Mac Callahan (16:10): “It's wild. The levels of just deep rot and corruption that have become baseline … day trading on outcomes of war.”
Involvement of Key Negotiators’ Financial Interests:
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, deeply financially entangled in the region, are negotiating on behalf of the U.S.—raising conflict of interest concerns.
Saagar Enjeti (20:50): “There's an attack … on a Saudi Arabian pipeline … kingdom’s only bypass to the Strait of Hormuz—700,000 barrels per day knocked out.”
Timestamp: 22:22–26:10
Timestamp: 27:29–31:11
Trump’s True Social Diatribe:
Trump publicly calls Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones “stupid people” for opposing his Iran policy.
Trump (read by Saagar Enjeti, 27:50): “…They have one thing in common, low IQs. They're stupid people. They know it, their families know it and everyone else knows it, too.”
Media Influence Dwindling:
Whittled down to Fox, Shapiro, and essentially Tim Pool.
Humor abounds at Pool’s flip-flopping and remaining relevance.
Timestamp: 33:54–66:52
Mearsheimer’s Opening Take:
Meaningful negotiations can’t start until Israel halts bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Mearsheimer (34:10): “It seems clear to me that the Iranians will not engage in serious negotiations... until Israel stops striking at Hezbollah. It’s just that simple.”
Damage to U.S.-Israel Relations:
Mearsheimer (36:18): “It becomes clearer by the day that the Israelis bamboozled us into this war... the Israelis are responsible for that.”
Iran Holds All the Cards:
U.S. is desperate due to economic catastrophe; Iran can prolong pain.
Trump’s boastful morning tweets compared to desperate concessions (“accept[ing] the Iranians ten point plan”) by sundown demonstrate panic.
No Viable U.S. Military Option:
Mearsheimer (44:32): “There is no ground option ... our military performance here has been abysmal. The idea that we have a military option. So this gets to your question—what's the off ramp here? There's only one off ramp here, and that's surrender.”
Asian Allies and Global Order:
Economic impact in Asia is severe; alliance credibility is in question.
South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan may pursue nuclear deterrents independently.
Mearsheimer (60:21): “Iran will be more powerful for sure after February 28th than it was before… relations between the GCC countries and the United States will never be the same.”
A New Power Balance:
Iran emerges with more leverage, but the immense damage it suffered will limit how much it can capitalize on this.
Mearsheimer (65:59): “Israel's influence is going to go down and Iran's is going to go up. But again, I don't think you want to overestimate the position that Iran is in simply because of the huge amount of damage that we've done…”
Memorable Conclusion:
Mearsheimer (66:52): “I hope they reach a quick conclusion … it would be really wonderful if we could put an end to all of this and create some sort of peace in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.”
Timestamp: 72:07–88:14
Slotkin Town Hall Meltdown:
Slotkin repeatedly conflates criticism about AIPAC influence with antisemitism, prompting sharp pushback from constituents.
Krystal Ball (76:56): “All I can say is, good luck with your 2028 run, lady. Like, if you’re already this fragile and lashing out like that… this is not going to work.”
Discussion of AIPAC Money and Transparency:
Ryan details how AIPAC uses veiled donation methods, complicating true accountability and public understanding.
Debate over whether tracking Jewish donors constitutes conflating support for Israel with Jewish identity—team argues it’s a transparent accountability question, not antisemitism.
Polling in Michigan:
New polling among Michigan Democratic voters shows overwhelming hostility to candidates not willing to stand up to AIPAC (62% say it's a proxy for trust). The “mainstream” Slotkin approach is revealed to be the outlier.
Ryan Grim (91:43): “Across the board … even moderates are skeptical of politicians who won’t challenge AIPAC.”
Timestamp: 97:55–99:17
Rising Power of Independent Media:
Among Democratic voters under 45, 24% get news from places like Breaking Points, DropSite, or similar—far more than older voters or mainstream TV.
Hasan Piker Panic:
Establishment Dems and media figures are treating political streamer Hasan Piker like a kingmaker, raising his profile among otherwise apathetic voters.
Timestamp: 109:29–118:26
Melania’s Statement:
Unsolicited, Melania Trump issues a sweeping denial of any connection to Jeffrey Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell; crew debates why now.
Speculation and Backstory:
Possible explanations include resurfacing of old emails and pressure from a former Trump associate threatening to spill damaging info.
Krystal Ball (113:53): “What is she trying to get ahead of here? Because none of us were thinking about you or talking about you in this way at all, girl. So what is up with this?”
“It reminds me very much of when my son was three years old and he was playing Uno for the first time ... and then someone screwed it up and he just completely crashed down, was like, that wasn’t the plan.”
—Krystal Ball on Trump’s diplomacy style (03:28)
“There is no ground option … our military performance here has been abysmal. The idea that we have a military option. So this gets to your question—what's the off ramp here? There's only one off ramp here, and that's surrender.”
—John Mearsheimer (44:32)
“The US was begging for the ceasefire. Iran was ignoring them. Again, knowable things for Breaking Point viewers and Dropsite readers, but apparently not to anybody else.”
—Ryan Grim (09:12)
“I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years … they have one thing in common, low IQs.”
—Donald Trump (read by Saagar, 27:50)
“If a candidate is not willing to stand up to AIPAC, I am less likely to trust them to stand up for Michiganders on other issues...”
—Ryan Grim (summarizing MI voters, 91:43)
“All I can say is, good luck with your 2028 run, lady. Like, if you’re already this fragile and lashing out like that … this is not going to work.”
—Krystal Ball on Alyssa Slotkin (76:56)
The hosts maintain their signature blend of clear-eyed skepticism, humor, and granular, inside-baseball knowledge. Krystal is biting and precise; Saagar is sardonic; Ryan delivers data-driven insight; Mac and Emily round out the panel with generational and media perspectives.
This episode captures Breaking Points’ anti-establishment, unvarnished ethos—highlighting the fumbled U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, the growing irrelevance of traditional political kingmakers, and the disruptive influence of independent media and online politics. With expert commentary from John Mearsheimer, memorable intra-party brawls, and some much-needed comedy breaks, it’s a comprehensive snapshot of the current American political crisis.