4/14/25: Israel Loses It Over Trump Iran Talks, Trump Says Wrongly Deported Man Not His Problem, PA Gov Mansion Arson Attack

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Episode: April 14, 2025
Title: Israel Loses It Over Trump Iran Talks, Trump Says Wrongly Deported Man Not His Problem, PA Gov Mansion Arson Attack

Release Date: April 14, 2025

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Overview

In this episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti delve into three significant and tumultuous events impacting U.S. foreign and domestic policies. The discussion spans the strained relations between Israel and the Trump administration over Iran negotiations, the controversy surrounding the Trump administration's handling of a wrongly deported man, and the alarming arson attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's mansion. Through insightful analysis and robust debate, Ball and Enjeti unpack the implications of these events on American politics and society.

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1. U.S.-Iran Negotiations and Israeli Reactions

Initiation of Talks:
The United States resumed direct negotiations with Iran in Oman, marking a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Steve Wyckoff, a key figure in these negotiations, outlined the U.S. position, emphasizing that the red line remains the weaponization of Iran's nuclear program. This stance aligns with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the Trump administration previously abandoned.

Israeli Concerns and "Libya Style Deal":
Israelian policymakers expressed vehement opposition to the negotiations, particularly criticizing any agreement that does not demand the complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear capabilities. They repeatedly referenced a "Libya style deal," evoking the fall of Gaddafi to underline their fears. Crystal Ball criticizes this rhetoric, stating:

“If you have a nuclear program and America's like, you should give up that nuclear program... They know that it's a non-starter.”
— Crystal Ball [04:46]

Impact on Pro-Israel Lobby:
The Israeli lobby is reportedly “freaking out” over the negotiations, perceiving them as a direct threat to their strategic goals. Wyckoff’s approach, which contrasts sharply with the lobby's demands, has incited significant backlash. Saagar Enjeti highlights:

“The pro Israel lobby's freaking out because they know that any engagement on terms with Iran that do not begin with the total dismantling is itself a threat...”
— Saagar Enjeti [07:00]

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2. Defense of Steve Wyckoff and Political Repercussions

Support from MAGA Figures:
Wyckoff has garnered support from various MAGA-aligned individuals, including Laura Loomer and Marco Rubio, who publicly defend his negotiating tactics. Elon Musk also voiced support, reinforcing Wyckoff's position within certain political circles.

“Elon... said Steve Wyckoff is a great guy. It shows there is confidence and they're trying...”
— Saagar Enjeti [09:06]

Challenges from Pro-Israel Forces:
Despite his support, Wyckoff faces relentless attacks from the pro-Israel lobby, who perceive his negotiation style as inadequate. The hosts discuss the delicate balance Wyckoff maintains amidst these pressures.

“Pro Israel lobby is currently out for blood. They've taken two massive Ls recently in the last week.”
— Crystal Ball [09:31]

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3. Deportation Controversies: Wrongful Deportations and Legal Implications

Case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia:
The Trump administration mistakenly deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland father and construction worker, to El Salvador instead of the intended country. This error has ignited debates over the administration's immigration policies and judicial oversight.

“The administration fired the DOJ attorney who admitted that they mistakenly sent him to El Salvador.”
— Saagar Enjeti [20:44]

Legal and Constitutional Concerns:
Ball and Enjeti critique the administration's defense, which claims sovereign custody by El Salvador absolves them of responsibility. They draw parallels to hypothetical scenarios to illustrate the absurdity of this stance.

“If you mistakenly deport somebody... and you house them in the custody of a foreign government... you don't have the power to do that.”
— Saagar Enjeti [22:11]

Impact on Foreign Students and Economy:
The hosts highlight the broader implications of such deportations, including the negative impact on the U.S. economy and the perception of America as a destination for international students.

“Foreign tourism is plummeting... taking a half point of GDP and just saying no thank you to it is huge.”
— Saagar Enjeti [33:02]

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4. Attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's Mansion

Incident Details:
An arsonist, Cody Bomber from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, attacked Governor Shapiro's mansion at 2 AM, setting the residence ablaze while the governor and his family were present. The attack caused extensive damage but resulted in no injuries.

“Suspect's name is Cody Bomber... charged with attempted murder and arson on the Pennsylvania governor's mansion.”
— Crystal Ball [40:03]

Suspect's Motive and Public Reaction:
During the investigation, Bomber expressed hatred towards Governor Shapiro without providing a clear motive. The episode discusses the broader societal issue of political violence and mental health.

“Anybody who participates in something like this, they've lost it. It is not okay and it has to stop.”
— Crystal Ball [43:00]

Governor Shapiro's Response:
Governor Shapiro condemned the act, emphasizing that political violence is unacceptable regardless of ideological leanings.

“This type of violence is not okay... We have a responsibility to all be better.”
— Governor Shapiro [43:00]

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Conclusion

In this episode, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti provide a critical examination of the Trump administration's foreign and domestic policies, highlighting the tensions between U.S.-Iran negotiations and Israeli lobbying efforts, as well as the repercussions of flawed immigration policies. The violent attack on Governor Shapiro underscores the escalating political unrest within the United States. Through their analysis, the hosts call for greater accountability and a reevaluation of current strategies to foster a more stable and just society.

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Notable Quotes:

• Crystal Ball [04:46]: “If you have a nuclear program and America's like, you should give up that nuclear program... They know that it's a non-starter.”

• Saagar Enjeti [09:06]: “Elon... said Steve Wyckoff is a great guy. It shows there is confidence and they're trying...”

• Saagar Enjeti [20:44]: “The administration fired the DOJ attorney who admitted that they mistakenly sent him to El Salvador.”

• Saagar Enjeti [33:02]: “Foreign tourism is plummeting... taking a half point of GDP and just saying no thank you to it is huge.”

• Governor Shapiro [43:00]: “This type of violence is not okay... We have a responsibility to all be better.”

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights presented by Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti in this episode of Breaking Points, providing listeners with an in-depth understanding of the pressing issues shaping current American discourse.

Transcript

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[Crystal Ball]

Over the weekend the US began direct negotiations with Iran in Oman. We can put this first element up on. The interview that Witkoff did with the Wall Street Journal has a bunch of people angry because he laid out what the US negotiating position is in these upcoming talks with Iran, which will now proceed to Rome next, which we'll talk about in a moment. And effectively what he said is that the red line for the US is weaponization of the nuclear program. And what that means is that the US would be comfortable with a civilian nuclear program, which is effectively the nuclear deal that Obama and the Europeans and Russia made with Iran back in 2015. The JCPOA, which Trump subsequently walked away from. So that has. We can put this next tweet up on the screen. This is from. And they scooped this, if you want to follow this closely. This is called Amwaj. It's Omwaj Media. They have very deep sources kind of within the Iranian government. So obviously you want to take anything you hear from any government officials with a grain of salt. But if you want to know how Iranian sources are receiving their end of the negotiations, Amwaj is really good at this. They were the first that I saw to report that Witkoff had come in with some level of humility and had not come in demanding, as the Iranians wondered if he would, the complete dismantlement of the entire.

[Craig Melvin]

Well, not just that entire program, said, quote, senior Iranian political sources said that Wyckoff's draft neither contained explicit threats of a military attack. Iran has strongly rejected any Libya style dismantling of its nuclear program and has urged Trump to stop threats. I mean, this is again, obvious. Let's just remember the history here is that anybody in the Middle east, anybody in the world, if you have a nuclear program and America's like, you should give up that nuclear program. Your obvious answer should be no. Look what you guys did to Gaddafi. You would be an idiot to give it up. It's the only security that you have. That's why the relations with the North Koreans continue to stall. We have this fantasy that once you develop an ICBM capable of destroying Los Angeles, you're gonna voluntarily give it up. Especially when you're the Kim regime and you still have total control over the entire country. It's not happening. You're like, this is the only guarantee of my entire security. Now, the Iranians obviously aren't there, but to give up the infrastructure for their security and legitimacy, it would be preposterous. And that's why. That's why the pro Israel lobby's freaking out. Because they know, they know that it's a non starter and they want that to be the only condition of negotiation between Steve Wyckoff, the United States and Iran.

[Crystal Ball]

And Israeli policymakers keep referring to what they want as a Libya style deal. No, they keep using the phrase Libya. And anybody who uses the phrase Libya style deal in these talks. Talks is very directly trying to blow up the talks. Because imagine you're on the receiving end of that offer and somebody says, what I'd like to offer you is a Libya style deal. And you use those words. What happened to Gaddafi? He gave up his nuclear weapons and subsequently was sodomized to death.

[Craig Melvin]

Literally. Literally on camera.

[Crystal Ball]

Literally on camera. Sodomized to death. That is a Libya style deal. And that is what people hear who are Iranian leadership or anywhere else, or North Korea. Anywhere else when you say that, because you're not even trying to sugarcoat it at all because there are a lot of different phrases you could use and Libya style is a choice. Tritipars. You can put up this next element. He's highlighting. He's highlighting this massive kind of bubbling up of a campaign that is very predictably now coming for Wyckoff. They got his man, Adam Boehler, who Jared Kushner's roommate. Because Boehler not only met directly with Hamas, that wasn't the problem because that was approved by Trump. He went on TV and said that.

[Craig Melvin]

He dared to say that the US Is not a client state, not a.

[Crystal Ball]

Client state of interest.

[Craig Melvin]

That was his great flaw and flub. You know, the only reason they can't screw Wyckoff is because Wyckoff has been Trump's friend for like 50 years. Yeah, and also Wyckoff, I mean, let's really ruminate in this too, because I think this is very important. It maybe relates to a certain debate.

[Crystal Ball]

While Sager's talking, you can roll a few more of these. Just roll a few more of these.

[Craig Melvin]

Roll more of these. Better out of D3, Steve Wyckoff, we just had a whole little debate on a certain platform with a certain person around expertise. And you know, Steve Wyckoff is a New York City real estate developer who built the Fontainebleau casino in Las Vegas and has already succeeded in more diplomatic achievement in 84 days of the Trump administration than Anthony Blinken did in four years, than Jake Sullivan did in 12 years in power, than so many career politicians did over a 20 year period, like Brett McGurk, who have all been working on all these. And it is solely because of his effectiveness that these pro Israel folks are all attacking. As you guys just saw, the Israel lobby is absolutely losing it. Specifically because they know that any engagement on terms with Iran that do not begin with the total dismantling is itself a threat to the stated goals of a Netanyahu government who believes that overthrow of the Iranian regime is not only an imperative for Israel, but that the United States must be the precipitating force to be able to do that for them, not that they themselves are obviously militarily even capable of it. And that is why the War is currently happening over our own politics right now. And let's not forget too, Wyckoff is not. He is not like he's done very well and he's not been fired or anything like that. However, the pro Israel forces can move in at any time. He successfully negotiated that ceasefire, Ryan. It actually looked like phase two. I wouldn't say it was likely. It was possible, let's say within the realm, 20%, 30%. Well, they successfully killed that Bibi and them. They got Trump to do this whole colonized Gaza thing. Bibi, currently, apparently behind the scenes, the Israelis are freaking out over these current deals. I would not put it past them. Anything is still possible for them to derail these talks, to do something to try and elevate the more Adelson and other friendly elements of administration. So for every one step that Steve Witkoff takes, they can always take five steps back.

[Crystal Ball]

Witkoff is getting a little bit of defense. We can put up D4 here.

[Craig Melvin]

This has become like a MAGA thing.

[Crystal Ball]

Laura Loomer came out and, you know, basically saying, look, Witkoff has gotten more done than any of these clown bureaucrats have in many years. And then Marco Rubio quote, tweeted Laura Loomer and with the 100, so did.

[Craig Melvin]

Elon, by the way. You know, Elon also supported Steve Wyckoff, which is, you know, these are all good things, at least for us right now.

[Crystal Ball]

But, yeah, like I just did, he lifted a Loomer tweet because they were beef.

[Craig Melvin]

I think he replied to Loomer. Yeah. Elon was like, Steve Wykoff is a. Is a great guy. I know this all sounds preposterous to say that, you know, Marco Rubio is, quote, tweeting Laura Loomer or any of that, but it does show that there is confidence and they're trying.

[Crystal Ball]

Also, she got a bunch of people fired recently. Marco Rubio's like she did. I'm with her.

[Craig Melvin]

You're exactly right. You're right. And what we know from all of this is that the pro Israel lobby is currently out for blood. They've taken two massive Ls recently in the last week. Number one, most important is this Iran negotiation. I would actually say the Douglas Murray thing is also a secondary one. Yes, Major L, that was their best advocate going forward on the biggest platform with an actual skeptic.

[Crystal Ball]

In a real debate, they dragged him to Gaza. If you're a Western journalist, you cannot get into Gaza. They put a fake press vest on him and allowed him to be escorted into Gaza where He sat down in like the chair where Sinwar was killed. So that's their guy. Yeah, they put their champion on the field.

[Craig Melvin]

They literally put. That is their champion. And so, you know, they've taken a huge hit in the propaganda war. They've taken a big hit here with the Trump administration. In some ways, Trump is the only person who could get away with this. Cuz he simultaneously is like deporting these pro Palestinian students, you know, and others. And so they're like beating their chest, going rabid over that. But at the same time they're taking a massive foreign policy loss. So I don't know, what do you.

[Crystal Ball]

Think the other l was?

[Craig Melvin]

Oh, I said the two L's was Iran deal and Douglas Murray. Those are the two big LIs.

[Crystal Ball]

Love that.

[Craig Melvin]

I mean it sounds funny, but I honestly don't think it is. That has been watched by millions of people or listened to by a lot that honestly, if you're average person, you don't have that much exposure to Israel, Palestine and you just clock in and that's what you get. I mean you think about it like that is the average Joe that is probably as close as they're gonna get to listening to a debate on the subject. And I don't think it went that well for him.

[Crystal Ball]

No, you would come out of that with a deep contempt for.

[Craig Melvin]

Contempt.

[Crystal Ball]

The people who have contempt for you.

[Craig Melvin]

Right, yeah, they do have contempt for you. That's actually true. Yeah. Oh, my expertise and yeah, literally ran about this. It's important to note just that on all fronts there is. There's a lot of confounding information around the Iran deal and any potentials. Just don't forget that while yes, I think all of this is working in the right direction, I absolutely want to commend the Trump administration for even attempting this. Something the Biden, let's remember the Biden administration never even got to this point right here, not even once. And in fact, what was Ryan wasn't the DNC platform. Didn't it repudiate the Iran deal in 2024? I'm recalling it had some. Yeah, there was some talk in the platform specifically about the overthrow or something of Iran.

[Crystal Ball]

Like they actually became more neoconstricted, they went back direction and then never. Yeah, they never made any serious effort to try to get back into the Iran deal. And yeah, yeah, here we are. And you put up D5 the final element here just to support my claim that Amwa just place to go if you want to get early news. They. So they were the first to report that the next talks would probably move to Europe. Subsequently, after this reporting, it's now been confirmed and Barack Ravid was the first to confirm it, that the next round of talks will be in Rome. One thing I heard is that this will that a piece of this is that it's shorter distance for Wyckoff to travel. He's a busy man. So having it in Europe rather than constantly over it somewhere in the Middle east makes it easier for the US negotiators, which is kind of silly on the one hand, but also suggests that they're pretty serious about like wanting this to happen pretty frequently.

[Craig Melvin]

That's right.

[Crystal Ball]

So that he can come. That he. So that he can come regularly to these talks and try to actually make progress and get this thing done. Because it actually is different and you've done a lot of travel, your week is much different if you go to Rome and back than if you go to Oman and back.

[Craig Melvin]

Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's right. By the way.

[Crystal Ball]

And if you're also trying to bring the ceasefire back to Gaza, like, but go ahead.

[Craig Melvin]

No, I was just going to say I think this is all good. We see development of more talks. Oman has always been a meeting point for the US and for Iran. The. What is it the Sultan? I think there has been.

[Crystal Ball]

UAE wanted to do it.

[Craig Melvin]

They're like, yeah, no, we're not doing that. And why would you, if you were the Iranians? I wouldn't want to fly. I wouldn't want to fly to the uae. Just broadly, I do think that the overall engagement here is good. You will all need to watch carefully. We can easily see a bowler style sidelining. Wyckoff is on the tightest balancing beam that there is in all of US politics. The pro Israel lobby is gunning for him more than any other figure in the Trump administration. And they have successfully sidelined every single other person who has dared to even suggest negotiation. And of course, they got their greatest victory in the ongoing continuing war with Gaza. So not a win yet. Things are currently in a good direction, but they could be derailed at any point.

[Crystal Ball]

Right. And still the complete blockade of humanitarian goods going into Gaza has gone now from March 2 to. It's now April 14, April 14. You can only begin to imagine, like what it's like when you have 2 million people who have not been resupplied for six weeks. And the level there are rumors going around Gaza that the crossings would open today or tomorrow. Who knows if those rumors are true. Let's hope that they are. Meanwhile, you've got the bombing campaign ratcheting up. You have people in Jerusalem reporting that the bombing is getting so fierce in Gaza that you can even hear it in Jerusalem. They attacked the Al Ahly Hospital, which has not just important material residents for the people who were relying on that hospital. There's all these images of people in hospital beds, getting the beds, leaving the hospital with nowhere to go. Just patients in hospital beds now out in the street. But importantly, symbolically, this was the hospital that in 2023, there was this giant international conversation about whether it was Israeli bombs or a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad explosive that had killed hundreds of people at the hospital. There was a resolution on the floor of the house that passed that censured Rashida Tlaib for not blaming Palestinian Islamic Jihad for that attack, for daring to say that Israel had attacked that hospital. She was literally censured in the house for that. And now Israel has attacked the hospital, admitted that they attacked the hospital, claim credit like a terror group.

[Craig Melvin]

Go Christian hospital, too.

[Crystal Ball]

Christian hospital on Palm Sunday. Yes, they've claimed credit for it. And it's just kind of a blip. So the thing that Rashida, Megachurchers will tell their.

[Craig Melvin]

Do you think they'll tell their congregation that on their next tour of Jerusalem, on an End Times tour?

[Crystal Ball]

I don't think they're gonna. I don't think they're gonna hear that. Interesting. Now, I think, you know, there's efforts to get the word out to these Christian communities, and some do hear about it. And I think it goes to your point that, like, the erosion of support for Israel is just.

[Craig Melvin]

Yeah, but I mean, I made that snide comment, but you're correct. That group. And that's.

[Crystal Ball]

They're harder core Zionists than anybody else.

[Craig Melvin]

Exactly. And you know, the funny thing is the Israel, it cultivates the shit out of them. Cause they think they're crazy. If you go over there and you talk to them, they're like, we can't even believe these idiots are so pro. They think they're a joke. They're like cosmopolitan Israeli elites who think that these rapture evangelical, apocalyptic people are genuinely nuts.

[Crystal Ball]

Because they are.

[Craig Melvin]

They look at them the way that, like, New York City elites look at, you know, evangelical Christians. And that's how they see. But they also recognize that they're deeply politically important. And that's why they support all of these, like Pastor Hagee, Cufi groups all across. They know where their bread is buttered politically and the center of gravity. I do wonder, you know, for these tours, if you've ever been to Israel, these people are everywhere. Like, if you're flying from America, guarantee you there's gonna be a bunch of evangelicals on your flight going to see the Holy Land. The thing is, though, with the proximity, especially when you're in Jerusalem, if you've ever been there, it's pretty close. You know, you can see Palestine literally with your own eyes.

[Crystal Ball]

The wall is there.

[Craig Melvin]

At a certain point, aren't you gonna be able to hear some of the war and that going on? I genuinely wonder about that.

[Crystal Ball]

So yeah. Yeah, for sure.

[Craig Melvin]

Maybe it'll change some attitudes. I don't think so.

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[Crystal Ball]

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[Crystal Ball]

Let'S move over to two two major developments on the deportation front. On the two two different wings of the kind of deportation, there's the political wing, which is rounding up students and others who are critical of Israel and detaining them and deporting them. And then there's the, the case of the Venezuelans sent down to Bukele's torture chamber down in El Salvador. So let's start with, let's start with that one. So put up this first element. E1. So the Trump administration has now responded to this, this judicial order from the Supreme Court that said the Trump administration had to, quote, facilitate the return of Abrego Garcia, which is Kilmar Abrego Garcia. This is the man that people hate. When you call him a Maryland father, I don't know what you want to call him. A construction worker who used to live in Maryland and has children.

[Craig Melvin]

The president in the United States, he had a deportation hold on him, saying it cannot be held. Sent to El Salvador. It was sent to El Salvador. The administration admitted they mistakenly sent him to El Salvador.

[Crystal Ball]

And then the administration fired the DOJ attorney who admitted that. And so now they are saying, and it's an interesting argument to grapple with because of the separation of powers question. So what they're saying is that he is now in the sovereign custody of Naya Bukele and El Salvador and that no judge can order the executive to make any engagement when it comes to foreign policy with any sovereign country. That, that is the sole discretion of the executive. It raises, of course, extremely uncomfortable questions just to go to the like, to take it to an absurd degree. If Trump picked up Sotomayor and sent her to Bukele's prison and the Supreme Court was like, you cannot pick up a Supreme Court justice and send them to a prison in El Salvador. You need to facilitate her return. The Trump administration would make the same argument. Well, look, it doesn't matter how, how they got there. You don't have the power to do that. So I don't, I don't, I don't.

[Craig Melvin]

Like, it's like this is currently being, this is currently being litigated to the district court. No, look, Brian, you're right.

[Crystal Ball]

All right?

[Craig Melvin]

And people, it's probably important for people to hear me even say it. If you mistakenly deport somebody and then you house them in the custody of a foreign government and you pay that foreign government to house that person and then you claim that they're in the sovereign custody of that other country. Yeah, okay. You said should not have deported him. So it's a little bit different than if he had been, let's say he had traveled to El Salvador by himself and the El Salvadorians put him in prison and he's an El Salvadorian. Citizen. Okay, whatever. Right? Not whatever, but for him. But what are you gonna do about it? All right, pretty different story. Facilitate his return. As you said, they are saying, yeah, if the El Salvadorians ever let him out, then sure, we'd allow him back in the United States. That's basically the crux of their argument at the current district court level. However, people should remember this does not just end right here. There will continue to work this way through the legal process for that definition of what facilitate means. And in fact I was speaking with a couple of friend court watchers and others on this and they are specifically saying that this payment notion, that that is the crux of the art, that's really the Achilles heel. The reason legally why the administration needs to fight so hard on this is that if you release one person, you actually show and admit that it's not in the custody of solely of the El Salvadorian government, that it is in the United States government. And that leads to more court challenges, ACLU challenges than others, let's say over that makeup artist, right, who we had previously seen. And it opens the legal ground to all of this.

[Crystal Ball]

Or the soccer player we've talked about.

[Craig Melvin]

Soccer player that you talked about.

[Crystal Ball]

Totally institute.

[Craig Melvin]

It's very obvious that the administrator, look, they are terrified of some. You raised this of somebody coming back. I think most what they're terrified of is admitting that they did something wrong. Because when you admit that you did something wrong, then I mean, look, there are a lot of people who still, they don't know about any of this case, right? And on its face, a lot of people who support mass deported, whatever are looking at this and be like, yeah, okay, this makes sense or whatever, worst of the worst. And they're taking the administration's word for it. The thing is now the administration, in the same way that they have on tariffs, is now showing this on immigration. So we previously saw that Ms. 13, East coast gang leader, right, who was allegedly this horrible human trafficker, drug, you know, drug paraphernalia, et cetera, they're dropped. They got a gun, slapped him with a gun charge and now they're just, okay, we're gonna deport him to El Salvador, fine. I mean, okay, you know, guy had a gun, illegally, definitely a crime. Why was the governor of Virginia there and the Secretary of Homeland Security? So what's that? Is he just a low level gang member? And you know, this entire thing is made up. Same with a lot of the case here we've seen around the tattoos, et cetera. I mean again, to be Totally honest. Never in my wildest dreams did I think that anybody could ever be so stupid as to use the process. Currently right now that's on me. So everyone can dunk on me if they want to. But that's just. You can see pretty clearly as more information has come out, not only in El Salvador, what. Let's continue. El Salvador, what we're about to get to, with the Mahmoud Khalil situation with this, this woman who is now. Yeah, go ahead, you can set it up. This is, this is an example of what I'm talking about. And you know, just to resurrect again, a Vietnam era term credibility gap. That was a term that became widespread during the Lyndon Johnson administration where very similarly, Americans trusted the government. They trusted the government about what they were saying around let's, in this case immigration at that time, about Vietnam. But the more lies got exposed, the more that the default assumption was, you are lying to me now became baked into the American crisis.

[Crystal Ball]

Right. And people who supported that general policy assumed there was some level of due diligence being put into this. And so that. And it appears that there's very little. So we can put up E2 on the screen. This is a big Washington Post scoop that came out last night where a memo leaked out of the State Department that said, okay, you asked us to look into Rumesa Azturk, who is a Tufts graduate student, to see whether or not she had done anything that would, that we can even remotely link to saying that she supported Hamas. And if you look at Mahmoud Khalil, who is. There's nothing out there where they have found, where he has said anything that could be construed as supporting Hamas. Like, it's just not out there yet. They're clinging to that because he participated in some of these protests where there were some signs at the protests that could be construed in that direction. So he was in the same vicinity.

[Craig Melvin]

So that's Kilpaiso.

[Crystal Ball]

Got him, got him there. Okay. So that's their bar. That's how low their bar is. They couldn't even clear that bar for her. The only thing that we have publicly seen and that they've been able to dig up because they've got Canary Mission and all these other Zionist organizations who have enormous amount of resources to spend investigating these students. If they tweeted anything in 2010 or 2011 and even in support of like a flotilla bringing aid into Gaza, like we would know this about Rumeza Ozturk. They have an op ed on which she was one of four co authors that was published in her student newspaper that was in support of a student senate resolution that passed. So, like, that means, like the entire student senate is supportive of Hamas. If these claims are true and if you read the actual op ed, there's a ton in it that Hamas would not agree with. Like, it's not a remotely Hamas supporting op ed. It's just, it's talking about equality in Israel and it's kind of critical of the way that Israel is conducting its genocide. I don't even know if they use. I don't even remember if they use the word genocide. And it's a very. It's a very.

[Craig Melvin]

You should go check it. Yeah. I'm curious.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, people can go look up Azturq's op ed. So that's the one. It turns out, according to the State Department, which looked closely at her case, that's all they had nothing else. And they told. They said there is no evidence that we can provide to Marco Rubio to justify a claim that she is encouraging anti Semitism, by which they mean, you know, significantly critical of Israel or that she is supportive of a terrorist organization. We don't. The goods are not there. That memo was in the custody of the State Department produced by State Department officials, and they went and grabbed her off the streets of Somerville, Massachusetts. Anyway, you've seen that. I guarantee you that You've seen clips of viral.

[Craig Melvin]

You and I together, we played that.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. This horrifying sub where you've got these plainclothes goons pulling up in the SUVs and dragging her away. That was a pretty long time ago. Time kind of blends together here. She has not been deported. Like, she is living in some deplorable conditions right now in immigration detention. And this is a person who, according to a State Department investigation, did nothing. And I don't want to say wrong, because it's not actually wrong to criticize Israel, but she didn't do anything. That even Marco Rubio's unconstitutional bar that he has set and unconstitutional. According to federal Judge Mary Trump, she didn't even do that. And currently she's deprived of her freedom. Currently is a political prisoner sitting behind bars in a detention center awaiting some sort of adjudication of this case that's been brought against her.

[Craig Melvin]

You know what's crazy is even quote, tufts Friends of Israel says we strongly oppose the content of the op ed that Ozturk co authored. But restricting freedom of speech is flat out undemocratic and un American. Freedom of speech in a democracy is sacred. It ensures that dissent is heard and that people can express themselves. That's the Tufts Friends of Israel argument. They did say genocide, by the way. I just looked at the.

[Crystal Ball]

Oh, it is a genocide. I mean, whatever.

[Craig Melvin]

You can say whatever you want. Okay. Even if. Whatever. It's not a verboten word. All right. Shall we? Yeah. I mean, even looking at this entire case and the background within it, you would assume, again, you could dunk on me if you want. You would assume. Let's say, if you were to deport somebody, Ryan, and you don't support this policy. Neither do I. But we were to deport foreign students who participated in anti Israel activism. Where do we start? We start with people who committed a crime. Right?

[Crystal Ball]

Right.

[Craig Melvin]

I would look at that Hamilton hall thing. Anybody who was charged with a crime. And this is. Again, I don't support this policy, but that's where I would start. Who could argue against that? Right? You could say, oh, it's not, you know, it doesn't rise to the bar, whatever.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, but you can't really. If you commit a crime on a student visa, you can be deformed.

[Craig Melvin]

You got dead to rights.

[Crystal Ball]

And that wouldn't even be surprising to people who are.

[Craig Melvin]

It would not be surprising to people. That's exactly right. But they start with Khalil. For what reason? I think at this point, we can only conclude, well, yeah, they thought he.

[Crystal Ball]

Was on a visa.

[Craig Melvin]

They thought he was on a visa. That's number one. But two is also, you start with somebody who, in a certain way, is much more unimpeachable than the Hamilton hall person as just a signal of, like, you shouldn't even be doing this. And actually, I mean, I know people may get upset about this. What I find the most objectionable is the government taking over the Columbia University Middle Eastern Studies department and Harvard and getting United States citizens expelled from a university because of something that they said. I mean, these are citizens of the United States of America who paid presumably good money to attend a private university and are then being expelled from that institution and having their education taken over by the government here, specifically on behalf of a foreign government to teach. What? I mean, what are the terms now that are banned at Columbia University? Oh, yeah. Like what Middle Eastern studies? What national interest do we have here that Americans sufficiently, you know, bow down to the state of Israel in private university Ivy League education? Or is it all a power play to show is like, hey, you should not be messing with. I mean, really, this is like Bill Ackman and the Zionist you know, pro Israel lobbies, like, this is their fever dream, this is their wet dream, like come to life, is literally taking over the institutions which they see as theirs and making them sufficiently pro Israel and making sure that there is no dissent there at all. And the fact that it's done on behalf of a foreign government just honestly makes it for me 10 times worse. You can even understand in the past, Vietnam censorship or World War II or any of that, that's totally, that is within the bounds not of acceptability, but of understanding about how a nation grappling with an internal crisis. But this is not even close to that.

[Crystal Ball]

And we can't afford this right now. Meanwhile, foreign tourism is plummeting. The bar is, the line is going straight down. It's like 30 down, 30, 40%. But it's no sign of what the bottom could actually be. I saw somebody saying, well, it's only 0.42% of GDP. It's like, bro, do you understand how big 0.42% of GDP is? If you shave that off, that could take you from GDP growth if you're close to flat to recession territory. And it's not just that. 0.42, yes, that's the direction result. But everybody who works in that industry, they pay rent. Some send their kids to private school, they go to the grocery store, they buy things. Now they're not paying their rent. Now the landlord is going to foreclose on that. There is a ripple effect throughout the economy. So taking a half point of GDP and just saying no thank you to it is huge. And that doesn't even count the foreign students who, and we've argued about this before, but the foreign students spend billions and billions of dollars in this country, propping up the economies of the neighborhoods.

[Craig Melvin]

I don't disagree. I've just said before, I think it's a bad financing system. While you're also relying on America. I mean, for example, I think there was like 45,000 graduate students who are foreign who were admitted to some of these. But you might say, oh, okay, that's great. And it's like, yeah, but they also have a 4% acceptance rate. And part of the reason why a lot of these people do get admitted is because they pay full free. I think that's actively discriminatory against U.S. citizens. I'll be happy to reform it with you, Ryan, about. But is this the solution? Yeah, I would say no, I don't think that this is the overall solution to this. So unfortunately, I mean, we are now in the clown show where what? Khalil has been greenlit for deportation. It's gonna happen, it looks like. Well, we'll see.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. So Friday, the immigration court judge ruled that he could be deported. He still has a habeas petition in front of the federal court. So his lawyers are very.

[Craig Melvin]

What country is he a citizen of?

[Crystal Ball]

So he's a. His parents or his mother is from Algeria. So he has Algerian citizenship. He also was born in Syria, but as a Palestinian refugee in a refugee camp. So he doesn't have Syrian citizenship. And what does that even mean in this Al Qaeda run state right now? And so. But his lawyers, who I talked to over the weekend, said that they expect he would be deported to one of those two countries, but one of those two countries have to accept him. And if they don't now, Algeria might, in order to kind of save him from getting sent to Syria, because Syria might be more willing to do it because, you know, it's run by Al Qaeda, which is our. We finance them and they're willing to do whatever to try to get sanctions released or whatever else. Then he would be at serious risk if he's in Syria, whereas the Algerians might say, all right, if he's getting deported, we'll take him and maybe we can protect him.

[Craig Melvin]

It is so funny to think about that, that he would be at serious risk in Syria, because what the administration and the pizza people are telling us is that he's some pro terrorist sympathizer. It's like, yeah, guys, those are actual terrorists. And anybody who's been palling around with Jews, Jewish students, and pro peace and all that, they're not so happy with you, an actual terrorist. They look at you and they. Yeah, exactly.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, there's that. Plus there's Israeli influence in Syria, so Algeria would be more. Would be more likely. But they're still fighting it, and the habeas case is still ongoing. Unless they just ignore it and say, you know what? Hey, screw you, we're just gonna. We're ship him out, and then once he's out, there's nothing you can do about it. Yeah, like that's. That's like exactly what they're saying with Abrego Garcia that we mentioned at the top.

[Savannah Guthrie]

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[Craig Melvin]

This is today. And no matter what the day holds.

[Savannah Guthrie]

We come to the TODAY show for all of it.

[Craig Melvin]

When things are tough, we talk about it.

[Crystal Ball]

When there's something to figure out, we dig into it.

[Craig Melvin]

And when there's joy, we celebrate it.

[Savannah Guthrie]

Because today is where it's all happening. We get the best start to every morning because we start it together.

[Crystal Ball]

Watch the Today show with Savannah Guthrie and Craig Melvin, weekdays at 7am on NBC.

[Savannah Guthrie]

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[Craig Melvin]

All right, let's get to the next part here, which is about Josh Shapiro. So as we guys said at the beginning, there was this terrible attack on Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania's mansion, overnight, where an arsonist set fire to the house while him and his family were sleeping there at 2am now, initially, the initial reports out of this did not make it seem like it was that serious, but the photos that have come out of this are devastating. Let's go and put these up there on the screen. You can see here inside of the governor's mansion where, you know, I mean, they're burned. I mean, completely too crisp. It basically went up in flames all the way to the roof. You can see there, like the dining room formerly, which was burned on several of the walls, wallpaper, the piano, et cetera, suffering quite a bit of damage. That was a leftover sign where they had just finished Passover dinner at the governor's mansions at Passover Crafts. And you can see that it's charred there by a lot of smoke. So here's what we know so far about the suspect. Let's go and put that up there on the screen, please, from the ap. Suspect's name is Cody Bomber, and Cody Bomber of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania now been arrested and charged with the attempted murder there and arson on the Pennsylvania governor's mansion. He allegedly told. Allegedly told investigators that if he had been able to, he would have beat the governor with a hammer. Don't know a lot about the guy. You know, don't want to say too much about his appearance.

[Crystal Ball]

You draw, I think he looks like a hipster.

[Craig Melvin]

Draw a conclusion from what you will about and be the light that you want to see in the world. Okay. I mean, look, but let's all just remember this may not even be.

[Crystal Ball]

I mean, lamatza Molotov cocktail. Like that's a lefty.

[Craig Melvin]

Yeah.

[Crystal Ball]

I mean, right wingers will throw a Molotov mocktail, but we'll see. He's delusional.

[Craig Melvin]

I was gonna say, as usual with these cases, like with the Paul Pelosi case, you know, people think it's politics.

[Crystal Ball]

They latch onto a politics, but ultimately they're mentally ill. Yeah, exactly.

[Craig Melvin]

Probably just schizophrenic crazy. And it's not an excuse. Still scary what we're watching, I'm saying in terms of trying to spin some grand political narrative. Anybody who participates in something like this, they've lost it. And so what we know from Cody Bomber right now is he was taken into custody. Said he would have beaten Shapiro with a small sledgehammer if he'd been able to. Quote, bomber had walked an hour from his home to the governor's residence. During the police interview, he admitted to harboring hatred towards Shapiro but did not explain why. Okay. Shapiro, his wife, his four children, two dogs and another family were celebrating Passover at the residence and were awakened by state troopers pounding on their door about 2am they fled as firefighters extinguished the fire. Luckily, nobody was injured. We don't know yet a whole lot about this. Authorities said that bomber is currently being transmitted or transported to prison. Did not say whether he had a lawyer. Currently, like I said, he'd been enlisted a residence in Harrisburg as recently as 2022. But if he walked an hour to the governor's mansion. So presumably within the Philadelphia area. Right.

[Crystal Ball]

I thought. Or, sorry, he was in Harrisburg. Right.

[Craig Melvin]

Wait, what am I thinking of the Governor's mansion? No, no, that's right. No, he is in Harrisburg.

[Crystal Ball]

Right.

[Craig Melvin]

This is where the governor's mansion is, correct?

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah.

[Craig Melvin]

So, yeah. Presumably manage remaining in the Harrisburg area. I guess that's all we know right now. I mean, it's just horrible to see not only the damage, but just to show you is much closer call than I think a lot of people initially thought. You know, it seems like Elsa was able to permeate security perimeter, jump the.

[Crystal Ball]

Fence and they said his security was like. He was like evading security as they were chasing him through the mansion.

[Craig Melvin]

How was he able to. I mean this reminds me of. You remember when Obama was president and that guy leaped the fence and actually made it through the front door. He made it pretty damn close. He made it decent far into the wall.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, that's right. That's right. He did get in there and people are finding his social media posts and finding he's sharing anarchist stuff. He has one joke on here where he says, I'm a registered socialist. So I had gotten about 27 mail in ballots. It's a funny joke. I got to vote for everyone twice and vote none of the above in person. Plus casting a vote for my favorite cartoons.

[Craig Melvin]

Let me know if there's any Illuminati on there. That's always a fun. That's always a fun.

[Crystal Ball]

Classic schizophrenic and he makes fun of MAGA and.

[Craig Melvin]

Oh really?

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. So he's got it.

[Craig Melvin]

All right, well look, as again, not everything has to be political.

[Crystal Ball]

It doesn't.

[Craig Melvin]

Maybe it's more just a garden variety Insanity does happen.

[Crystal Ball]

Do with it what you will.

[Craig Melvin]

We do have some comments here from the governor. Let's take a look. We don't know the person's specific motive yet, but we do know a few truths. First, this type of violence is not okay. This kind of violence is becoming far too common in our society and I don't give a damn if it's coming from one particular side or the other directed at one particular party or another or one particular person or another. It is not okay and it has to stop. We have to be better than this. We have a responsibility to all be better. Possibly our next president there, Ryan.

[Crystal Ball]

There you go.

[Craig Melvin]

Governor Shapiro don't know, as you said, we saw some of the Images there of Mr. Cody Palmer, but that's all we really know right now. The guy's been charged. Attempted homicide, arson, terrorism. I'm sure we'll see more from the investigation, etc. As you said, he'd written and said previously that he hated the Governor but did not say why. I don't know. I mean, maybe it could be a Matthew Crook situation where we just never really find out very much about the guy. We already know more. That's where things are. Yeah, that's true. We do know more about him than we do about Matthew Crooks. Still an insane thing that happened in our history but that's where things are obviously troubling. Very, very sad. And hopefully the governor pretty emotional there in his. In his comments. But, you know, glad everybody that survived and we'll see. All right, thank you guys so much for watching. Great bro show, Ryan. Always enjoy being with you, my friend.

[Crystal Ball]

Likewise.

[Craig Melvin]

Crystal will be here tomorrow. We will see you all then.

[Savannah Guthrie]

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[Craig Melvin]

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[Crystal Ball]

Off the field.

[Craig Melvin]

Off the field. Copy. All right.

[Savannah Guthrie]

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[Crystal Ball]

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[Crystal Ball]

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[Craig Melvin]

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[Crystal Ball]

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