4/21/25: SCOTUS Blocks El Salvador Deportations, Japan Rebukes Trump On Trade, Full Blown Pentagon Meltdown

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar – Episode Summary Release Date: April 21, 2025

In this episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti delve into a series of critical and timely issues impacting the United States and its global standing. The discussion spans from significant Supreme Court decisions affecting immigration policies to turbulent trade negotiations with Japan, culminating in a deep dive into the escalating chaos within the Pentagon. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of the episode's key segments:

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1. Supreme Court Blocks El Salvador Deportations Under the Alien Enemies Act

Key Points:

• The Supreme Court issued an extraordinary order halting deportations of foreign nationals under the Alien Enemies Act, effectively countering actions taken by the Trump administration.
• Guest Pisco, an immigration attorney, provided an in-depth analysis of the ruling, highlighting the court's stance on due process and the legality of the administration's deportation efforts.

Notable Quotes:

• Pisco (07:51): “The Supreme Court's order to pause deportations under the Alien Enemies Act was a definitive move to ensure that due process is upheld for all individuals, regardless of their alleged affiliations.”
• Ryan Grim (09:02): “Sam Alito writes, ‘The court issued unprecedented and legally questionable relief without giving the lower courts a chance to rule…’”

Discussion Highlights:

• Alito's Dissent: Justice Alito criticized the Supreme Court for issuing the order without ample justification, arguing that the administration should have followed the standard appellate process.
• Implications for Due Process: The ruling emphasizes the necessity of providing reasonable notice and the opportunity for habeas petitions, ensuring that individuals are not unjustly deported without adequate legal procedures.
• Case of Kilmar Gregory Garcia: The episode scrutinizes allegations against Garcia regarding his supposed membership in MS-13, questioning the validity of evidence such as tattoos used to deem him an "alien enemy."

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2. Debunking Gang Membership Allegations: The Case of Kilmar Gregory Garcia

Key Points:

• The Trump administration's claims that Kilmar Gregory Garcia is a confirmed member of MS-13 hinge on questionable evidence, primarily pertained to his tattoos.
• Legal experts and hosts critique the legitimacy of using tattoos as definitive proof of gang affiliation, pointing out inconsistencies and lack of concrete evidence.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Grim (15:35): “MS-13 gang members typically display their affiliation prominently, often across their faces or backs. However, Garcia's tattoos are vague and don't conform to recognized gang symbols.”
• Pisco (14:23): “There is no substantial evidence linking Garcia to MS-13 beyond hearsay and misinterpretation of his tattoos.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Tattoo Analysis: The episode highlights the flawed methodology in interpreting tattoos as gang identifiers, noting that many of Garcia's tattoos have benign meanings unrelated to any criminal organizations.
• Due Process Concerns: Emphasizing that even if suspected gang affiliations existed, Garcia is still entitled to due process protections under the law.
• Propaganda Tactics: The hosts argue that the administration is using Garcia's case to manipulate public perception and justify mass deportations without solid legal grounding.

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3. Trade Negotiations with Japan: A Strained Alliance

Key Points:

• The Trump administration's attempt to renegotiate bilateral trade agreements with Japan has met significant resistance, leading to a decline in diplomatic trust.
• Japanese Prime Minister's Response: Japan has firmly stated that it will not continue to concede to U.S. tariff demands, setting a challenging precedent among U.S. allies.

Notable Quotes:

• Sagar Enjeti (43:55): “The Japanese Prime Minister openly declaring independence from the U.S. in tariff talks is the worst possible outcome for a G7 nation and a core U.S. ally.”
• Ryan Grim (41:01): “The U.S. cannot expect productive negotiations when previous agreements have been abandoned without proper follow-through.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Unclear U.S. Objectives: The hosts critique the U.S. for lacking clear and consistent trade goals, making it difficult for allies like Japan and the EU to engage constructively.
• Economic Impact: Highlighting the broader implications for the global economy, including stock market fluctuations and reduced international travel due to escalating trade tensions.
• Comparison with China: Drawing parallels with how China effectively manages trade wars through strategic economic policies and domestic support, contrasting it with the U.S.'s faltering approach.

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4. Pentagon Meltdown: Leadership Crisis Under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

Key Points:

• A severe internal crisis is unfolding within the Pentagon, marked by the purge of top officials who opposed war with Iran and alleged leaks of sensitive information.
• Leaked Information: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is implicated in sharing classified details about strikes in Yemen via an encrypted group chat, raising serious security concerns.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Grim (56:28): “Hegseth's decision to share attack details in a group chat with his wife and brother is unprecedented and jeopardizes national security.”
• Sagar Enjeti (63:06): “This level of internal conflict and the removal of competent officials indicate a profound dysfunction within the Pentagon.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Firing of Loyal Officials: Former Pentagon officials who were against aggressive military actions are being forcibly removed, suggesting a crackdown on dissenting voices.
• Policy Implications: The chaos within the Pentagon hampers effective decision-making, particularly concerning potential military actions against Iran.
• Character and Leadership: The hosts express deep concerns about Hegseth's leadership capabilities, highlighting his inability to maintain cohesive and competent management within the Department of Defense.
• Impacts on Foreign Policy: With a weakened Pentagon, the U.S. faces increased risk of policy missteps and unreliable military strategies, undermining national security interests.

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5. Economic Ramifications of the Tariff Pause and Trade Policy Execution

Key Points:

• The Trump administration's maneuver to pause global tariffs has raised alarms about the overall strategy and its execution, potentially signaling instability in U.S. economic policies.
• Insider Trading Concerns: While the tariff pause could have implications for insider trading, the hosts argue that the lack of concrete information makes such allegations speculative.

Notable Quotes:

• Saagar Enjeti (32:41): “The administration's mishandling of tariff negotiations not only confuses international partners but also erodes confidence in the U.S. economic strategy.”
• Ryan Grim (33:09): “The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has left both domestic and international markets in a precarious state.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Market Confidence: The abrupt changes and lack of clarity in trade policies are causing volatility in financial markets, affecting everything from stock prices to consumer confidence.
• Impact on Small Businesses: Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly vulnerable, facing potential bankruptcies without adequate government support.
• Long-Term Economic Strategy: The episode critiques the administration's short-term tactics, advocating for a more sustainable and transparent approach to trade negotiations to stabilize the economy.

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6. Conclusion: The Dire State of U.S. Governance and International Relations

Key Points:

• The culmination of judicial overreach in immigration, failed trade negotiations, and internal Pentagon chaos reflects a broader crisis in U.S. governance and leadership.
• Call to Action: The hosts emphasize the need for informed and independent media to hold those in power accountable, urging listeners to support platforms like Breaking Points for unbiased perspectives.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal Ball (26:31): “The integrity of our government institutions is at stake. It's imperative that we demand accountability and competence from our leaders.”
• Saagar Enjeti (67:19): “A weakened Pentagon and erratic economic policies not only endanger national security but also the livelihoods of millions of Americans.”

Final Thoughts: Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti conclude the episode by reiterating the importance of independent media in addressing and exposing the systemic issues plaguing the U.S. They advocate for heightened public awareness and engagement to foster meaningful change and restore trust in governmental institutions.

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This episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar offers a critical examination of pivotal issues affecting the United States, highlighting the interplay between judicial decisions, trade policies, and military leadership. Through incisive analysis and expert insights, the hosts provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the challenges facing the nation.

Transcript

[Crystal Ball]

Every morning brings a fresh new energy.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And no matter what the day holds.

[Crystal Ball]

We come to the Today show for all of it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We get the best start to the day because we started together.

[Ryan Grim]

Watch the Today show weekdays at 7am on NBC.

[Crystal Ball]

Does this podcast make you happy? Of course it does. That's why you're here. But it only comes out once a week for happiness, every night. You need Adam and Eve.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Crystal Ball]

I'm talking about sex toys. It's cool. It's cool. You have earbuds in right. Adam and Eve, America's most trusted source for adult products, has been making people very happy for over 50 years with thousands of toys for both men and women. Just go to AdamAndEve.com now and enter code IHEART for 50% off. Almost any one item plus free discreet shipping. That's AdamAndEve.com code IHEART for 50% OFF.

[Sagar Enjeti]

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[Crystal Ball]

Independent media just played a truly massive.

[Ryan Grim]

Role in this election and we are.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So excited about what that means for the future of the show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important.

[Crystal Ball]

To you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com Become.

[Sagar Enjeti]

A member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad free and all put together for you every.

[Ryan Grim]

Morning in your inbox.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. Burrow show people live for the pound. Ryan Grim is here in the house and we have a packed show. All right, let's see what we've got here. Toughest part of the job, El Salvador. We're going to be having peace. Go on from. He's previously joined us. He's a lawyer. He's got a lot of expertise on immigration. He did a very good job of explaining and breaking stuff down. There's been so Many legal developments just over the last like 48 hours. The Supreme Court has gotten involved, basically blocked the entire Trump administration using the Alien Enemies Act. He's going to explain what that means, what the justification is and what the future looks like. We are going to talk about tariffs. There's been some major hang ups in the Trump administration's plan to negotiate bilateral trade agreements. The country of Japan has indicated that it's not going to cede to US demands. There's a lot of watch on Japan because it's the first major ally to actually negotiate with the Trump administration here. And there's some troubling signs as well as some peek behind the curtain of how we got our little 90 day pause. It's not exactly the best and the brightest. We're gonna talk about Pete Hagseth and Pete Hagseth. It seems there's just insane insanity going on right now at the Pentagon. There's a full scale purge, a literal purge of top officials, many of whom are very against war with Iran, were loyal to Pete Hegseth. They all appear to have been fired. And at the very same time, Hegseth now embroiled in a scandal where he allegedly like sent those same Yemen war plans to a group chat which included his wife and his brother. We are going to talk about a little story here that Ryan and I worked on together. I believe. Ryan. It's my first byline in six years. So it's good to be back. It's good to be back at drop site.

[Ryan Grim]

And for people who aren't in journalism, when two people write a story together, they call it a co byline.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's right.

[Ryan Grim]

We gotta go with Cobra line.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, Cobra Line. I like it a lot. I like it. It's good to be back. Ryan and I worked on this story together. An exclusive report that our subscribers will hear first. So if you want to get that, go ahead. BreakingPoints.com, not gonna give it away just yet. Israel, we're gonna talk about some updates there, of course, just Israel admitting that they killed those medics. They call it a mistake. They fired the brigade.

[Ryan Grim]

They said this is what accountability means. And they removed one guy from his job. That's it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And beyond that, Ryan, you're gonna get into how the TikTok of how they even got to an admission of guilt. A lot of it was because of you guys. A lot of it was because of journalists that were there on the ground reporting from behind the scenes. And it was specifically not because of the legacy media that forced this. We're gonna as well give some updates on the Iran on potential Iran deal. There is a full scale war and this relates very much to the story that Ryan and I are doing a full scale war inside the Trump administration itself over the feasibility of these continued negotiations with Iran. Negotiations do continue and there very positive signals, of course, it could fall apart at any time. And the neocon war on the individuals who are involved, people like Steve Witkoff, Adam Bowler and others continues. The Israel lobby is throwing everything they possibly can to kill these. We're gonna give everybody an update. And then finally, finally some interesting moments there on the Joe Rogan experience with Tim Dillon Rogan openly mocking Douglas Murray and Douglas Murray and Bill Maher teaming up to open link, go after Joe Rogan. Interesting. All former guests and friends apparently together. So there's a lot going on there.

[Ryan Grim]

He makes it too easy.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Have you been there? Have you been to.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I mean, it's too good. Listen, Douglas, you did it to yourself, brother. You make yourself look like an idiot. People are going to take a notice. All right, so before we get to that, just thank you to everybody who's been subscribing to BreakingPoints.com Ryan and Emily did a fantastic job on the Friday show, which of course we have extra premium content that they did for us on Friday available only to our premium subscribers. Tomorrow, Crystal and I will be doing our live Ask Me Anything and our continued expansions here. So if you can support us, breakingpoints.com Again, if you cannot, it's totally fine. Just make sure that you like and subscribe either to this video or any of the other videos that you're watching. And guys, if you are listening, just go ahead, take this podcast episode and send it to a friend. Leave it five star review. It's the best possible thing that you could do for the show.

[Ryan Grim]

But if you can do it now, you should do it now because thanks to Trump, you might not be able to do it soon because it might be laid off soon. Spend it while you've got it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, yes.

[Ryan Grim]

Support something that you care so that it can survive the coming tide.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There you go. All right. Well, thank you very much. Yes, of course. And I do, I would never advocate for anybody to go into credit card debt. So if that's true, just like I did like a share and subscribe to the video and send it to a friend. All right. No hard feelings. Also, we had some very sad news that broke overnight. Pope Francis officially died. He's 88 years old. Just met literally yesterday with the Vice President of the United States. He wasn't looking so good in that. But of course, there will be kickoff, the major conclave in all of the traditions surrounding the selection of the new Pope. So it is an end of an era. Certainly condolences to all the Catholics out there.

[Ryan Grim]

And we'll talk about this later in the program. And I promise I will not make fun of J.D. vance for killing.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Okay. I mean, you can. I mean, it's objectively funny, but I mean, you know, it's not a funny moment, of course, for, what is it, a billion Catholics? Something like that. He lived a good life around the world. Yeah, he had a very interesting life. So we'll talk a little bit about his legacy. We'll talk about it there at the end. But with that, let's go ahead and get to Pisco. He's waiting for us. Joining us now is Pisco. He is the host of Pisco's Hour. For our purposes. He's actually an attorney and he's got a lot of specialization in immigration. He's been doing a decent job. He joined us before. He did a great job breaking down those legal developments. And we have even more legal developments here, specifically involving the Supreme Court. So, guys, let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. This came over the weekend where it was extraordinary order from the United States Supreme Court, the Supreme Court, blocking the Trump administration from deporting foreign nationals under the Alien Enemies Act. So Pisco, go ahead, describe this order. How many justices were for, how many were against the timing of which it came out? Because there was a lot of legal analysis going over the entire breadth of the decision. Go ahead.

[Pisco]

Yeah, sure. So this is an extraordinary order. The ACLU went to the district court, went to the appellate court, the fifth Circuit, and then also to the Supreme Court almost concurrently, within hours of each other because there was news that the Trump administration was moving quickly to deport tons of alleged alien enemies. If you remember, the last time we spoke, there was that ruling and holding that even alleged alien enemies are entitled to due process and to have habeas petitions. Well, as I predicted, and as you know, we talked about they were going to interpret what reasonable notice meant. And According to the ACLU, that meant 24 hours and you had to sort of signal that you were going to file a habeas petition. And so in an extraordinary order, the supreme court at like 1 o'clock in the morning ordered, quote, the government to stop and pause any deportations under the Alien Enemies Act. It was right now there's only two noted dissents. We don't know for sure that all the other seven were in favor, but there were no other noted dissents. So people are assuming now that there was a 7:2 holding to pause all Alien Enemies act deportations in a certain part of Texas.

[Ryan Grim]

Okay, so let's, let's put up a 2. Speaking of these dissents, this is Sam Alito. He writes, in sum, literally in the middle of the night, the court issued unprecedented and legally questionable relief without giving the lower courts a chance to rule, without hearing from the opposing party within eight hours of receiving the application, with dubious factual support for its order and without providing any explanation for its order, refused to join the court's order because we had no good reason to think that under the circumstances, issuing an order at midnight was necessary or appropriate. Both the executive and the judiciary have an obligation to follow the law. Now, at the same time, you had a rather dramatic circuit court hearing with the judge there that the Trump administration kind of despises, where you had the attorneys for the migrants saying, we are hearing that people are being ordered to change clothes right now. Like, we can smell the fumes of the buses that are going to take these men to the airport. Please, sir. Please, you, Honor, you have to act now. And he refused to step in, saying that he didn't have the jurisdiction at the time to inject himself into that, into the controversy, but the Supreme Court did then just hours later. So can you talk about Alito's claim here that there actually is no urgency and that they shouldn't have done that? Where were the people in question at this moment?

[Pisco]

Yeah, by all accounts, the reporting is they were on buses ready to go to the airport and they were getting ready to take off. Now, I think you're referencing a hearing with Judge Boasberg. In that case, it's in a different jurisdiction. Boasberg is pretty much saying, my hands are tied. The Supreme Court said the right venue for these habeas petitions has to be in the place where the confinement was at the time the habeas petition was filed. And so I actually don't blame Boasberg at all. He is just holding onto that ruling from the court.

[Ryan Grim]

Is this applaud his people as well, because it covers all class of people under the Alien Enemies Act.

[Pisco]

It covers only people in Texas, the Supreme Court's order itself. But Boasberg is saying, listen, I don't have jurisdiction here. I have to listen Supreme Court. So that makes sense. As for Alito's concerns, in ordinary circumstances. Yeah, Alito would be right. You're supposed to go through the ordinary process of appeal. You're supposed to make sure that you're exhausting your remedies at the district court and then at the circuit court of appeals. Here's the problem. Nobody believes the government when they say, hey, we're not going to deport these people. Oftentimes, they're not even able to make those representations in court. Oftentimes they lie. They're already lying about the decision. They say that it was 90 in their favor, the previous decision for Kilmar Gregory Garcia. And so you can tell the Supreme Court they're a little spooked. I think that those, those seven justices, they don't trust the administration. And so when Alito says there's no factual basis to believe that these people are about to be deported, he's taken the government at their word. And what the government has shown is you shouldn't.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So I think that's actually the most interesting part about the late night decision is it was clearly the Supreme Court trying to assert its jurisdiction and its orders after watching Trump administration and the way they have handled a lot of the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case. Speaking of which, there have been some extraordinary developments on that over the weekend as well. We had a couple of instances, Ryan and Emily did a good job on Friday of breaking down the meeting between Senator Chris Van Hollen and Abrego Garcia that took place in El Salvador. But what actually came following that announcement was interesting as well, a continued claim from the Trump administration that Abrego Garcia was a confirmed member of Ms. 13. We have a little bit here from Abrego Garcia's lawyer being asked specifically about tattoos that allegedly show his MS.13 membership on his hands. And then I want to get your reaction afterwards. Let's take a listen to his lawyer. One thing that we've heard from the.

[Ryan Grim]

Legal team and again against this allegation from the White House is about his history.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I know that you've said he doesn't have a criminal history, that he had never been arrested for anything before.

[Ryan Grim]

People at the White House have pointed out to me, they say that doesn't mean that he wasn't a member of Ms. 13.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There's not always criminal activity on someone's record if they are in a gang.

[Ryan Grim]

And I want to show you something that the president posted tonight. It's a photo of what he says.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Is your client's left hand. You can see his knuckles there.

[Ryan Grim]

And the president is showing these tattoos.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That the White House Alleges break down what's going on there in terms of the claim. I know that you've looked and actually read a lot of the docket. There's a lot of conservative influencers. There'll be like a confirmed member of Ms. 13. Break it all down for the audience here.

[Pisco]

Yeah. So first of all, it's important to note that it doesn't matter even if you were an MS.13 member. Even the worst criminals in the country deserve due process. And none of the Supreme Court's holdings related to due process, you know, rely on whether or not you're a member of Ms. 13 or not. But to actually address the claim, they're basing it on a sort of police report that existed in 2019, where a cop who was later sort of suspended for behavior that's frankly, you know, I don't know if I would say corrupt, but certainly bad behavior where he was having sex with a prostitute that he was also feeding, you know, confidential information to. And this cop, on the basis of really just hearsay, someone said he's a member of Ms. 13 and he's wearing, like Chicago Bulls clothing. They allege that he was a member of MS.13. And so that claim got sort of funneled into the immigration court and alleged.

[Ryan Grim]

Here, say, like, do we even know that this person exists?

[Pisco]

We don't know who this person's name is. We don't know who they are.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, right.

[Pisco]

So the holdings of the immigration courts were with respect to a bond hearing. Okay. A bond hearing is a very different threshold than a finding of fact. And like, you know, if there's some issue, you know, some legal issue that needs to be fettered out by the court, Imagine it, right? Imagine if in a bond hearing you were accused of murder or something and the court found probable cause to hold you or just to hold you. Right? Just the amount of evidence it would take for them to keep you in a cage until there is the process. Right. You don't have any right to cross examine this person. There was no availability of this officer to be cross examined. And so it is the height, I think, of a propagandist to suggest that these rulings related to the bond hearing are actual findings of fact that he's a member of Ms. 13, and all the evidence is to the contrary, in my opinion. No criminal record here. No criminal record in El Salvador. You know, those tattoos, it's like the Glenn Beck. You guys ever see the Glenn Beck board where they're just like connecting dots and they're saying that the marijuana Leaf represents M, the smiley face represents S. And so they're just trying to make connections there.

[Ryan Grim]

I don't know how much you know about MS.13, but if people look up the tattoos that MS.13 gang members wear, they will write MS.13 like across their face. It's blaring and underlining it, circling it all across their back. Ms. 13, they are not a shy gang. Like, they're not the kind. They're not like a 14 year old who's, you know, trying to get like something past their parents or their teacher. Like, ha, ha ha, I got a little marijuana leaf. But it actually means The M in MS.13, like, they blare it out. You get kicked out of the gang if you're like, wait a minute, are you in Ms. 13 or not? Like, what is this?

[Sagar Enjeti]

We noted Ms. 13 expert, Ryan.

[Ryan Grim]

Exactly.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, go ahead. Peace. Go.

[Pisco]

No, no, no, but you read the, like, the tattoo analysis documents that they're giving to some of these ICE officers and they're, you know, there's one tattoo I remember I said, raal azala muerte, which means, you know, real Madrid until death. But people take that to be like a gang tattoo. It's just, you know, absurd, the lengths they'll go to. And even with some of these other cases that are not seen as much coverage, I think simply because this Kilima Abrego Garcia case is so preposterous and so unlawful. But there are other cases where we know like, it's an autism tattoo or it's a tattoo that says mom or dad. And so nobody trusts these tattoo experts. And when they actually go to court, some of these habeas petitions have been brought in court. In at least one instance, the court has asked the government, hey, what's your evidence that this person is a gang member, an alien enemy, and they have literally put up nothing. Zero. Like, not even just saying, like the bad evidence that they have here, the doctored photo or whatever, they have put up no evidence. And so this is really disturbing. And we shouldn't trust the government's representations as to Kilmar or as to any of these alleged alien enemies.

[Ryan Grim]

Just real quickly, I've seen real tattoo people say the most logical explanation for it would be weed makes me happy. So Sager would like to see him deported just for that. Weed makes me happy. You know, faith in the Lord till I die. Like lord till I die.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Or what if it's faith in weed, which is even worse? All right, let's get to make it serious.

[Ryan Grim]

All right, give me A second.

[Sagar Enjeti]

To make it serious. To make it serious, let's turn to Tom Homan.

[Ryan Grim]

You said we're going to be serious.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Ryan's still on his high from 4:20. That's what's going on here. All right, let's get to Tom Homan. He's the immigration czar and he asked specifically about this tattoo identification process. Let's take a listen.

[Ryan Grim]

But no one's removed just because of a tattoo. In other words, the alien enemy means you can grab somebody and you can.

[Pisco]

Deport them without an extended hearing because.

[Ryan Grim]

You have labeled them a terrorist. Because you, because you said you've determined.

[Walton Goggins]

That somebody is a member of the.

[Ryan Grim]

Gang and therefore they don't have to go through the extended process of the.

[Pisco]

Of the opportunity to have a full hearing. That's what you're saying. And let's just be clear.

[Ryan Grim]

I'm saying we're following the laws of this country and there's a different procedure of each one. We're doing things within the frame of the law. We're doing things legally. Okay, I stand by that. Now, again, I'm not a constitutional scholar. I'm not going to argue this in court. That's what the Department of Justice does. But I'm sitting here today, think we've done the right thing for this nation, found the laws in the Constitution of this country.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So what do you get from that about not only the defense of the Alien Enemies act, the tattoo justification and more. What do you think?

[Pisco]

Yeah, this guy's a depraved individual. He has no idea what the law is. And they're in open defiance of the Supreme Court. They're claiming that they only have to give 24 hours notice to people and that constitutes reasonable notice for some of these people who don't even speak English to file habeas petitions. They know they're flouting the Supreme Court. That's one ruling, right? That's the ruling related to the Alien Enemies act that you deserve a habeas petition. That's one ruling that they're violating. The second ruling that they're violating is they're still not facilitating the release from custody in El Salvador of Kilmar. And now apparently he's been moved around multiple times. So on the one hand, what I get from that is open defiance. And the people who's most in charge of the quote unquote border or enforcement doesn't even know the bare bones of their enforcement policy, isn't able to speak about it intelligently in a conversation. And in general, I think this entire endeavor has been characterized by unlawfulness and illegality. So his pretense that they've been doing everything to follow the law, I think is just absurd.

[Crystal Ball]

Does this podcast make you happy? Of course it does. That's why you're here. But it only comes out once a week for happiness, every night. You need Adam and Eve.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Crystal Ball]

I'm talking about sex toys. It's cool. It's cool. You have earbuds in, right? Adam and Eve, America's most trusted source for adult products, has been making people very happy for over 50 years with thousands of toys for both men and women. Just go to AdamAndEve.com now and enter code IHEART for 50% off. Almost any one item plus free discreet shipping. That's AdamAndEve.com code IHEART for 50% OFF. Every morning brings a fresh, new energy.

[Ryan Grim]

This is today.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And no matter what the day holds.

[Crystal Ball]

We come to the Today show for all of it.

[Ryan Grim]

When things are tough, we talk about it. When there's something to figure out, we dig into it.

[Walton Goggins]

And when there's joy, we celebrate it.

[Crystal Ball]

Because today is where it's all happening. We get the best start to every morning because we start it together.

[Ryan Grim]

Watch the Today show with Savannah Guthrie and Craig Melvin, weekdays at 7am on NBC.

[Walton Goggins]

So you want to start a business? You might think you need a team of people and fancy tech skills, but listen to me when I say you don't. You just need GoDaddy arrow. I'm Walton Goggins, an actor, and I like the sound of starting my own business. Walton Goggins goggle glasses. But I couldn't do this my own. GoDaddy Arrow uses AI to create everything you need to grow a business. It'll make you a unique logo, it'll create a custom website, it'll write social posts for you, and even set you up with a social media calendar. How cool is that? Well, listen to this. For a limited time, you can get Arrow all access for just a dollar a week for 12 weeks. We're talking all the AI power of GoDaddy Aero, plus a domain E commerce store, payments, professional email, a unified inbox. All for less money than I spend on deep tanning lotion while sunbathing off the Amalfi coast. You know what? That sounds like a plan. Get [e-mail] terms apply on the moving around part.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That was one where I was very confused as well. So Senator Chris Van Hollen, who met with Garcia, broke down some of the things he learned not only about Garcia. But also about the arrangement between the United States and El Salvador. Let's take a listen to that, and I want your reaction as well.

[Ryan Grim]

The Trump administration has promised to pay El Salvador $15 million to detain these prisoners, including the illegally abducted Kilmar. So you want to say something about.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The government of El Salvador. They are making a huge mistake.

[Ryan Grim]

You know, they want to brand themselves as a country for technology. You know, the president said, you know, bitcoin is legal tender. But now what they're branding themselves as, as the place for these huge prisons where people who are illegally deducted, excuse me, illegally abducted, it are warehoused. There may be states that decide, you know, they don't want any of their pension funds invested in companies that invest in a place like El Salvador.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So that was an interesting kind of breakdown. He talked about how there's a $9 million arrangement between the United States and El Salvador about this movement of prisons. What does that. So, I mean, beyond the interest in that, in his particular circumstances, what does that mean for this legal arrangement? That's what a lot of people are trying to get heads around, both in the facilitation, in terms of ever being able to bring him back, even if he were to be deported again. Can you, can you break some of that down for us?

[Pisco]

Yeah, I think legally, what is relevant about that is for purposes of the concern regarding the Article 2 encroachment of the court, so you'll remember and recall there was this big discussion about, well, what can the Article 2 district court, sorry, Article 3 district court order the administration to actually do, you know, does facilitate mean I get to order the Trump administration to invade El Salvador? Surely it can't mean that. And so for purposes of that analysis, I think the fact that there is a payment relationship there makes this much more like a contracting situation. And I think everyone would agree, right? Imagine that Guantanamo Bay were being outsourced, oversight over Guantanamo Bay were being outsourced to a private corporation or even like a foreign country operated in Guantanamo Bay, that the nature of the, the payment structure there sort of informs the court who actually has the authority, right. If, if he's in constructive custody of the United States, regardless of whether or not the prison guards themselves are Americans. That's a very different situation than Brittney Griner when she's imprisoned by the Russian Federation. And so I think those are all things that the court is going to take into consideration there. And I think it is legally relevant.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Okay, Ryan, you got anything else?

[Ryan Grim]

No. Covers it.

[Pisco]

I have a question for You, Sager?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Sure, Sager. But yeah, go ahead.

[Pisco]

Oh, my bad, Sagar. My apologies. Isn't this condemnable? Didn't the Trump administration do the wrong thing here?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, absolutely. I mean, I think that the way this has been handled has been really a disaster. And I think, you know, the interesting thing, and I've said this to Crystal also to Glenn as well. Like, my initial reaction, you know, to the entire case was a baseline trust in like, not even trust per se, but just in basic competence that I didn't expect that you could actually be in a world where you would be not only about Abrego Garcia Garcia, who may be mistakenly deported, but where the United States criminal justice system validates gang members in the Bureau of Prisons literally every day. So you would think that there is some baseline assumption around how to classify people as a gang member. Let's say you have 8 to 10 million illegals who enter the country under Biden. That's a conservative estimate. And it's like, okay, it's reasonably assumption. It's a reasonable assumption, I think, to say that a 250 or so they say that they're the worst of the worst. I actually approached that from position of like, yeah, sounds relatively reasonable. And then to see the way that these claims have all fallen apart in court and then the way that they have handled it now. Yeah, I just don't think that it falls both under any legal scrutiny. But I think also one of the things I didn't take seriously at the time was not only the due process position for any person in the United States, but it really does validate a lot of libertarian concerns about defending the principle, even whenever it's something that you matter the most. Because it's obvious here now that this is just the way that the administration conducts itself, both on an immigration level, but also really across the board, whenever it comes to tariffs, whenever it comes to so many of the different things, signal gate, the sheer stupidity, the incompetence, and then also just asking people to defend something of which they themselves are admitting fault in a court and then breaking it so that you have to completely debase yourself. So, yeah, I know. I'm sure you wanted your gotcha, but you got me. All right.

[Pisco]

Yeah, I appreciate it.

[Ryan Grim]

Saru's coming around on this end. And a very, very tiny part of me is mad at the Trump administration for what it did to its own supporters here because it took the faith that its supporters had that Trump was going to be diligent and honest about now. He didn't betray Me, cuz I never felt like he would do that, but they really believed that, okay, he's gonna go in and he's gonna find 300 of the worst of the worst and he's gonna get them out of here. And instead he swept up. You know, at least it looks like more than 100 people have no gang affiliation whatsoever. They're not even claiming they have gang affiliation. The country's focused on Abreu Garcia, but, you know, we reported on what's his name, Sergio Reyes, who was a goalkeeper from Venezuela who had a Real Madrid. Another Real Madrid victim had a Real Madrid tattoo and they lock him up for that. Another one had like a tattoo about autism awareness because he had an autistic brother. Then of course, there's the makeup artist who clearly is not an MS.13 member, but maybe he had a tattoo. I forget why he wound up there. Just mistake after mistake and using people's kind of earnest support for the Trump administration to marshal the Capitol to do that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, I think Ryan is exactly right. And politically, I mean, I still think immigration is the strongest ground that the Trump administration falls on. And I think a lot of people are deluding themselves and thinking that this is gonna be, like, dramatically unpopular. Most people don' watch the news or segments like this, and they're broadly just like, oh, he's a gang member. You know, there's still a lot of trust in the Trump administration from the people who voted for Donald Trump. But at a serious level, I mean, I think all the concerns not only about due process, but about the basic competence that an American can have in their government in executing a policy which I do think was validated at a large level by the American electorate on terms of mass deportation. There was at least an assumption about some basic levels of competence. One of the major hits on the Biden administration was these are the most incompetent people who've ever run the government. Look at the state of the country. We're gonna restore some sense of normalcy. And I just don't see that. You know, we've been somewhat. 90 days. 90 days now, right. In terms of the Trump administration, from the Doge cuts, which were supposed to be 2 trillion, now they're 1 trillion. It's like it really does become an all encompassing framework. And sure, you know, liberals can say I told you so, but, you know, it's not like there's a lot of people who trust them per se. So sometimes you do need to see things. You need to see things for yourself. And I encourage people to think for themselves and to listen to people like you and to others and other debates, et cetera. So thank you so much for joining us, man. We appreciate it.

[Pisco]

Thanks so much for having me, man.

[Crystal Ball]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Crystal Ball]

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[Sagar Enjeti]

This is today. And no matter what the day holds.

[Crystal Ball]

We come to the Today show for all of it.

[Ryan Grim]

When things are tough, we talk about it. When there's something to figure out, we dig into it.

[Walton Goggins]

And when there's joy, we celebrate it.

[Crystal Ball]

Because today is where it's all happening. We get the best start to every morning because we start it together.

[Ryan Grim]

Watch the Today show with Savannah Guthrie and Craig Melvin, weekdays at 7am on NBC.

[Walton Goggins]

So you want to start a business. You might think you need a team of people and fancy tech skills, but listen to me when I say you don't. You just need GoDaddy arrow. I'm Walton Goggins, an actor, and I like the sound of starting my own business. Walton Goggins goggle glasses. But I couldn't do this my own. GoDaddy Arrow uses AI to create everything you need to grow a business. It'll make you a unique logo, it'll create a custom website, it'll write social posts for you and even set you up with a social media calendar. How cool is that? Well, listen to this. For a limited time, you can get Arrow all access for just a dollar a week for 12 weeks. We're talking all the AI power of GoDaddy arrow, plus a domain E commerce store, payments, professional email, a unified inbox, all for less money than I spend on deep tanning lotion while sunbathing off the Amalfi coast. You know what? That sounds like a plan. Get [e-mail] terms app.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Let's get to the tariffs now. Man, there has been such a whirlwind around this. Let's put this up there on the screen. Just Actually, very relevant. Something we just discussed about process, about incompetence. This is basically straight out of the first term. So, quote, Trump advisors took advantage of Navarro's absence to push for a tariff pause. Peter Navarro, quote, had been a fixture on the President's side after Liberation Day. So the Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, and Secretary Bess, they wanted a 90 day pause on the global tariff plan. So what they did is they basically created a situation where somebody else in the White House complex invited Navarro to a meeting. Now, he invited them to a meeting which was across the street. Now, while Navarro is conveniently across the street and cannot argue against Secretary Besson and Secretary Lutnick, Secretary Bessen and Lutnick rush into the Oval Office, quote, to see Trump and propose a pause on these tariffs. Without Navarro there to argue or to push back. They knew they had only a very tight window. It was not on Trump's public schedule. The two men convinced him of the strategy to announce the pause and stayed with Trump until he tapped out his truth Social post, which surprised Navarro, who happened to be in a meeting. And then immediately, Secretary Besant walks out of the West Wing in front of the cameras to declare the policy. Ryan. So that is the level of care and attention of the steward of the global economy. It currently has over all of our fates, our business here at breaking points, and so much more.

[Ryan Grim]

The most important thing here is obviously the fate of the global economy and all the people. That's right. That rely on it. But underneath it, there's been this bubbling question of insider trading. This, in an interesting way, exonerates, from my perspective, the charges of insider trading. Because in order for you to insider trade, you have to have reliable information from the inside that you can then trade off nobody, including Navarro, including Trump.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, and the US Trade representative, including Latin, including Besant.

[Ryan Grim]

None of them knew that they would successfully persuade Trump they had a plan. But you can't trade off just a plan. Insider trading is supposed to be, you know for a fact, X thing is gonna. So they go in, it's just the three of them, and then he taps it out on his phone right there.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I'll give you a counter.

[Ryan Grim]

3,000 points up.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Here's my counter.

[Ryan Grim]

Let's say that this is all a lie.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So one of the reports from behind the scenes is that Secretary Besson, all week long, all he's doing is taking calls from these Wall street guys, being like, you need to stop, you need to stop, you need to stop. Let's say that he tells them, he goes Listen, I'm walking into the Oval soon and I'm gonna try and to change his mind. It's not a guarantee, right?

[Ryan Grim]

It's still a bet.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, but these guys make bets all the time, right? A tremendous amount of upside.

[Ryan Grim]

It's a stronger bet.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's a bet. You know, it's a little bit of information. Like, let's say if you can, it's more than you.

[Ryan Grim]

And I know.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Here's the thing. You know, I do a lot of reading about ways to beat the casino plot twist. It doesn't usually work. But the thing is, is that if you can even rule out, let's say, 1/5 of the roulette board, that changes the odds for everything else, right?

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You're not going to win, but in.

[Ryan Grim]

The long run, you'll win.

[Sagar Enjeti]

In the long run, you will win. So there you go. So that's just.

[Ryan Grim]

Even.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Just a little bit of information about what might not happen or might happen is enough to make a more of a structured bet which you might be able to take to the bank. And obviously it worked out for it.

[Ryan Grim]

Fair point. But like we said, the bigger point is we are all living and dying by this. And it does not give you much confidence in the overarching strategy here, which we can get into more. Because the US Is now dealing with the European Union. We can put this next element up on the screen here. We're seeing the US Put into this extraordinarily difficult position where we are going into these negotiations in a badly weakened place. The dollar's crashing, our stock market is crashing, the bond market is crashing. And you're seeing travel drop in a way that is utterly extraordinary. So it's partly. It's the trade war that's going on, but I think primarily, I think so the trade war is creating a lot of anger. But I think people don't make a lot of their individual travel decisions based on their political thoughts about the leadership of a country. People are nervous that they're going to wind up in detention centers for some violation in their visa. I'm curious how this lands on the right, on the left. We're like a. We love foreign travel because it's good for the economy and we don't do much else. Like, we are a service economy and we're a nice place.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So travel. I'm not gonna downplay it. I'm not gonna overstate it either. It's 9% of US GDP. That's a lot. There are rough.

[Ryan Grim]

I think it's only 0.3% 9% total. Yes.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So if we look, which is massive. No, I'm not. So again, not gonna downplay it. It's also not Nvidia, okay? It's not the S&P 500. Now, that's easy for me to say. And I'm not talking to what I'm trying to think Orlando. If you own a hotel in Orlando, God bless you. Okay? I feel bad for you. You know, you just got a massive hit. If you own anything in upstate New York or in Seattle, where a bunch of Canadians are always traveling to, apparently Canadians love Vegas. Vegas is taking an absolute beating right now. I have more ambivalence about that one. But in terms of letting them take a hit, my point is, is that there are a lot of people out there rely on this ring co. I'm not going to downplay that at all. At the same time, we are still talking about a 17% drop in travel. And, you know, that's not bad. That's not bad.

[Ryan Grim]

But the big numbers are just coming in, right? That's just what we've been able to measure so far. Like the direction of that arrow. It's like the Hamas carrot.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Look, I feel complicated about it in certain ways because this is the same GDP argument, right, that people make about foreign real estate. It's like, listen, you have to. We're the world's capital destination. I'm like, yeah, but that's bad for a lot of people who are here. One of the things I think that went most wrong with America and its global cities is that our cities, when I say global, they really are global. As in they are global playground for the world's rich. In the same way that Monaco or something is. Los Angeles is not for America, okay? It's for the richest people on Earth to all gather. Same thing with New York City, Manhattan real estate. It's a joke. Like, if you're a rich Chinese or rich Russian or rich whatever, you know, from some tiny African country, you're the one billionaire from there. You're hanging out in Manhattan. Everybody who lives or knows, they know that it's not only money laundering. Go to Miami. What is it, 26% or whatever of the real estate that there is. But I'm talking about real estate. But what I'm saying is that there is a downside to. Yes, but what I'm saying is that being the global destination for the world's elite, yes, it's good for GDP purposes, but you lose a lot whenever that happens as well, because you basically become this playground where we're like serving these like super rich, I don't know, Guinea Bissau ins, like in Miami. And you're like, well, what's going on here? Right. So I'm just, I want to give the caveat for why I don't think that it's as chalked up necessarily as it usually is.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. And I agree. I just wish that the US had the kind of political economy and the capacity to be able to say, okay, we're going to respond to this. This Guinea Bissau oligarch wants to park his $25 million that he stole here. Well, it's going to cost you 20%.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And we're going to talking about 20, 50, way more than. Let's negotiate 50, I would say 70 year period.

[Ryan Grim]

And with that, we're gonna fund our school system.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Sure, yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

Instead we don't do any of that. We just completely sell for nothing to the oligarchs. And if that is the system that we're going to have, then people are gonna burn it to the ground, and rightfully so. But then you're not then without replacing it with anything else, like, yeah, listen.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Not a lot of disagreement, just giving a little bit of a counter perspective, per se. You don't really want an economy, Right. That relies entirely on foreigners coming over here and spending a bunch of money.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. All those unoccupied.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Some bullshit they don't need. And then we don't need either.

[Ryan Grim]

All those unoccupied rental properties or condominiums or whatever that are just money laundering and people stashing money that drives up the price of rent.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You're exactly right.

[Ryan Grim]

For everybody else.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There you go. So maybe it'll be cheaper in Plattsburgh or in Maine. We'll see.

[Ryan Grim]

Everything is gonna get cheaper in a lot of ways.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Except.

[Ryan Grim]

Except for the problem that your 401 is gonna crash. The tariffs are gonna go up, the currency's weaker. But the good thing about a deep recession is that yes, rents are gonna go down.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's true. Yeah. I remember talking about that, about gas prices. I was like, well, you know, gas prices could go down, but it will be because of demand.

[Ryan Grim]

That's actually really bad because nobody can afford it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, exactly. Now, in terms of the. So one relief the market is looking for is some trade deals. They're like, give us trade deals, give us trade deals, give us trade deals. Let's see some progress.

[Ryan Grim]

Because they think that'll signal the end of the war.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Because that means it'll signal the end of the trade war. It means a 90 day pause will not actually go into effect after 90 days. It'll mean that the China trade war is actually going well, that there's negotiations and all of that happening. So everybody has been looking towards Japan. And Because Japan, top three US ally, G7 economy, one of the world's developed, slapped with a 25% tariff, Japan negotiated a trade agreement with Trump in 2019. Trump notoriously respects them. He loves Shinzo Abe, thinks that he looked out for his country. I love Japan as well as any watcher knows. But what's interesting is that the Japanese this time around are signaling much less optimism around any sort of trade negotiation. There's been a massive decline in trust on the Japanese side for how these are gonna go. And already just this morning I was looking at the future. They are down about 1% on the S&P 500, largely as a result of this negotiation. So what we have here is a very interesting video flagged by our friend Arnaud. This is a former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Chas Freeman, who actually seems to have gotten some inside information from the Japanese trade delegation. Let's take a listen to what he had to say.

[Ryan Grim]

The White House claims that there are direct talks going on somehow up with the Chinese. I don't believe it. I think what is happening is what I described earlier. The Chinese are maintaining contact with us, routine contact. There is no negotiation going on. The Japanese have just been in Washington. Their experience apparently was they went to talk to the American leadership on this matter and the American leadership said, said, what are you offering? And the Japanese said, well, what is it that you want? And the Americans could not explain what they wanted. This is a cockamamie approach to negotiation. And I think the Chinese, having observed the United States break virtually every agreement it has agreed to in recent years, including the replacement for NAFTA with proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico ago. You know, that was negotiated by Mr. Trump in his first term, and yet he felt free to abandon it and repudiate it. What's the incentive to negotiate with the United States when the United States has no stated objectives that make sense and no record of compliance with its own agreements? So I don't think there is. I think the Chinese have decided they will wait us out and see how Americans like Walmart and Amazon denude of products.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That was a really interesting perspective, obviously, but you know, it pairs with some of the reporting that's coming out now. Ryan, this is extraordinary to come from a Japanese prime minister. Can we go ahead and put B5, please, up on the screen. So the Japanese prime minister actually just spoke before Parliament Monday, his time, so several hours ago, and said, quote, if Japan concedes everything, we won't be able to secure our national interests. Saying, Japan will not keep conceding to the United States in tariff talks. And clearly they are just deeply confused. They don't know what we want. My personal favorite is the demand from the Trump administration of, why don't you buy more American rice? Why? We're trying to tell the Japanese to buy our rice.

[Ryan Grim]

Whoa, whoa.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's like telling the Chinese to buy T from, like, North. They're like, oh, what? Hold on a second here. Yeah, we got it. We solved that problem about 2,000 years ago.

[Ryan Grim]

And the other one he talked about was, you know, Trump is very fixated on the lack of American cars on the roads in Japan. And as he talked about. And you could. You were there recently and tell us about your on the ground reporting. The Prime Minister's like, look, man, the cars have the steering wheel on the wrong side. Like, we drive on the left side over here.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's true.

[Ryan Grim]

So go ahead, try to sell your cars. But I don't think a lot of people are gonna buy them because they're not designed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

But they do manufacture them with a different steering wheel from England. But they don't have as big of a production run on those cars. But I mean, look, this is a secondary thing because they're bad cars. Let's just all admit it.

[Ryan Grim]

And we're lobbying them to reduce their safety standards so that our cars can compete. It's like, how about we make better cars? And also, consumer choice matters.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Ryan Grim]

By driving the entire world economy into a recession in a tantrum style like Trump is doing, to try to pressure people to buy our products is going to backfire. Even if you. Let's say Japan is like, fine, we will even subsidize your Ford to come into Japan.

[Sagar Enjeti]

No, they shouldn't.

[Ryan Grim]

Japanese people still have to make the decision to buy a Ford. Americans don't even want to be seen in a Tesla right now. You think a Japanese consumer is going to want to be seen in a Chevy?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Dude, first of all, what is it? I think 10% of Tokyo residents even own a car.

[Ryan Grim]

Right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Over 90%.

[Ryan Grim]

Where are you going to park that thing?

[Sagar Enjeti]

So then, secondary, like, they're obviously better run. They're literally designed for them. People buy Toyotas in America. Okay, so why would you in. In Japan want to buy a ford or Ford F150 or let's say even a Smaller truck run from any of the U.S. manufacturers. You would be an idiot to buy that over a Toyota Hilux. You literally would be an idiot, a complete moron. And that's if you're an American. So now compare it to in Japan you get subsidized rate and it's domestically produced and oh, it's for your own market. By the way, I just looked it up. Japan produces 98% of their own rice domestically. What are we doing here? They only spend $700 million on rice. 50% of that is already from the United States. Who cares? They're basically self sufficient on rice.

[Ryan Grim]

They're an island.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's been a solved problem.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, they're also an island if you're not. And also the current Prime Minister's base is these farmers. So he's not going to sell his farmers out. But if you're telling an island country they need to, to like reduce the amount of food that they produce for themselves, what self respecting island nation would do that?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right?

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, well, didn't make it. I could tell it for it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's just one of the dumbest things about the demand for the Japanese. Like listen, if we want to talk about reciprocal tariffs, fine. We want to talk about trade imbalance, deficit, fine. Actually by the way, the Japanese are the best ally to work with on this. Toyota manufactures half those cars here in the United States of America.

[Ryan Grim]

The entrance are made.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So many of them are made. They have acceded to many of these demands and they still get slapped with a 25% tariff. Now if we want more tax credits and or threats of tariffs, I have no problem with that. If we go over there and we say, hey listen, you know, X percentage parts are still being manufactured in Japan. You guys are keeping a lot of the gold for yourself. Like in terms of the high value chain, which we don't blame you but we want to bring some of that over to make it more self sufficient. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. And some carrot and stick approach with the tax credit. But from the Japanese, they both are feeling threatened, which is at the worst time, right. We're in an alleged trade war with China, so what would we want? We want all the Asia Pacific to stand with us. Well, the South Koreans and the Japanese are like I'm not so sure about this. Right. They release a joint statement, the Japanese Prime Minister openly trying to declare independence from the United States here on a trade war in his parliament. That's the worst possible outcome again for a G7 nation, one of our closest allies, a manufacturing Powerhouse and one that we are deeply reliant on for a core segment, segment of our auto industry.

[Ryan Grim]

And real quickly, just to back up chaz Freeman, the EU's trade chief, Maril Stefkovich, met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Bloomberg and others report on this. Also met with United States Trade Representative Jameson Greer. And the reporting is this. It's just an incredible line. Sefkovich left the meeting with little clarity on the US Stance and struggling to determine the American side's aims. So they did the same thing as the Japanese. All right, America's like, cool, what are you going to give us? And then they're like, well, what do you want? Europeans are like, okay, what do you want? They're like, because what Trump. Trump wants US Manufacturing capacity to increase. What do Japan and European Union have anything to do with that? Like, it's like, all right, go ahead. Like, increase your manufacturing capacity. Go for it. We're not going to stop you.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Do it. The entire thing is preposterous, not only in its demands, in its execution, in the way that other countries have no idea what to do. And as I say, you can support tariffs and all this stuff in principle, and also look at the way that this is being implemented and say, this is a total disaster. I am for decoupling with China that we would all recognize is going to have a lot of pain. So how do you offset pain? With government subsidy, tax credits, a plan, confidence. That's what the Chinese are doing.

[Ryan Grim]

And allies.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And allies. And this is exactly. So what does Xi Jinping do whenever he faces a trade war? He pumps billions of dollars in the economy. He lowers the interest rate. He makes sure that Amazon E commerce sites are supporting their Chinese manufacturing base to make sure that nobody in the supply chain gets wiped out. From the small all the way to the big manufacturers. You continue to supply and make sure that you have an autonomous electric vehicle industry that stands completely alone from the United States and the Western markets. And then you go across the Asia Pacific and you cultivate allies like Vietnam. That's everything that he has done. Look then at the United States, we have small e commerce companies. You know Ryan Peterson, my friend who works at Flexport, we had him here on the show. People will remember. He predicts in 90 days, mass bankruptcy at a small EMA commerce level. They're dead. Dead at 145%. They're never coming back from this. In fact, he even flagged that there are already two companies who he knows, they just gave up. They sold to China, right, Because they were reliant on the factories there to produce their goods. They said, listen guys, we can't do business anymore. Your government is propping you up. We'll just sell you our business, our leads and everything. You can take over after they're happy. They've got the cash and the balance sheet. Our people have nothing. So that's the disastrous part of this. The big guys, Walmart, they'll be fine. Okay?

[Ryan Grim]

Ish.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, yeah, ish, sure. They'll take a 20% haircut on their stock. All of us will go work for Walmart as a greeter or whatever. They will survive. I think that's the one thing we could say with assurance. But many of the smaller products that go into a Walmart, many of the people who are E commerce folks or whatever, people who built big businesses, they have no Runway now, they have no product. I talked previously as a new expectant parent. Watching these stroller prices, it hurts, man, because you know what? Okay, yeah, I bought mine before all these tariff things. But if you go on Facebook, marketplace, the secondhand market and all that, the prices there is already gonna skyrocket. And people, you know, people feel a tremendous amount of anxiety about buying the proper car seat, the proper stroll. Of course, who doesn't wanna protect their child? And now they're getting charged for the privilege. And that just is unconscionable to me.

[Ryan Grim]

And the other thing that Xi Jinping is doing is targeted supports for people who are getting hit by the policy changes.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah.

[Ryan Grim]

So if you are a small business or a medium sized business that was reliant on exports to the United States, he is helping you find, he's doing all the things you said, helping you find a domestic audience. His diplomats are working to find you consumers in Europe or Africa or Japan or wherever else. And in the meantime, he's offering financial support to you so you survive this difficult time. The United States is not doing that. All of these, these companies that are facing the short term pain, as Trump supporters call it, are not getting any support. And so when the long term gain that's supposed to come rises, those people won't be around to reap that. It'll be the Chinese companies and others who. The Chinese companies and the oligarchs who are able to come in and buy for peanuts and buy for scraps, perhaps what's left of those companies. And then if there is any long term gain, it'll go to those.

[Sagar Enjeti]

You're right. It's just one of the dumbest possible things that we have seen. This all play out. If they don't back down soon, the damage is going to be immense. The price increases are already here. You can see it as the inventory starts to bleed. And the next time you want to go buy consumer electronics, iPhone and all that stuff, remember, Trump did give a pause, but he said that there is a separate, separate 232 sections. 232 style tariff coming on. Tariffs specifically for consumer electronic goods. Nvidia just got slapped with that export control. And by the way, you know, even on this front, just last tangent, and the CEO of Nvidia, the moment that we announced our export license on his chips to China, guess where he was. China. He flew to China to assure them that we will always do business in China. He said, quote, we have done business in China for 30 years and we have no plans to stop. Okay, that's a problem because we can see here he has no confidence that, first of all, he doesn't know whether these tariffs are gonna last or not. He has no idea. But second, he can see where his butter is. What is his bread is buttered. 50% or some revenue is over there. And he's not getting any help from the United States of America. I can guarantee you they probably threw everything in the book at Jensen Huang. And look, I mean, I think that's deeply unpatriotic and all that, but I'm realist. It's a capitalist. I mean, what are you gonna do?

[Ryan Grim]

Our companies are called multinational corporations for a reason. They are not American corporations, and we should stop believing that they are.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right?

[Crystal Ball]

Does this podcast make you happy? Of course it does. That's why you're here. But it only comes out once a week. For happiness, every night. You need Adam and Eve.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Crystal Ball]

I'm talking about sex toys. It's cool. It's cool. You have earbuds in, right? Adam and Eve, America's most trusted source for adult products, has been making people very happy for over 50 years with thousands of toys for both men and women. Just go to AdamAndEve.com now and enter code IHEART for 50% off. Almost any one item, plus free discrete shipping. That's AdamAndEve.com, code IHEART for 50% Off. Every morning brings a fresh new energy.

[Sagar Enjeti]

This is today. And no matter what the day holds.

[Crystal Ball]

We come to the Today show for all of it.

[Sagar Enjeti]

When things are tough, we talk about it.

[Ryan Grim]

When there's something to figure out, we dig into it.

[Walton Goggins]

And when there's joy, we celebrate it.

[Crystal Ball]

Because today is where it's all happening.

[Pisco]

We get the best start to every.

[Crystal Ball]

Morning because we start it together.

[Ryan Grim]

Watch the Today show with Savannah Guthrie and Craig Melvin, weekdays at 7am on NBC.

[Walton Goggins]

So you want to start a business. You might think you need a team of people and fancy tech skills, but listen to me when I say you don't. You just need GoDaddy arrow. I'm Walton Goggins, an actor, and I like the sound of starting my own business. Walton Goggins goggle glasses. But I couldn't do this my own. GoDaddy Arrow uses AI to create everything you need to grow a business. It'll make you a unique logo, it'll create a custom website, it'll write social posts for you, and even set you up with a social media calendar. How cool is that? Well, listen to this. For a limited time, you can get Arrow all access for just a dollar a week for 12 weeks. We're talking all the AI power of GoDaddy arrow plus a domain E commerce store, payments, professional email, a unified inbox. All for less money than I spend on deep tanning lotion while sunbathing off the Amalfi coast. You know what? That sounds like a plan. Get [e-mail] terms apply.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Let's turn now to Pete Hegseth. Man, there is a full scale meltdown happening at the Pentagon. It is just unbelievable. Let's go ahead and put C1 up there on the screen. This is just the latest quote. Hegseth to have shared a attack details in a second signal chat. The defense secretary sent sensitive information about strikes in Yemen to an encrypted group chat that included his wife and brother. His brother, to be fair, actually works for the Pentagon, but his wife. Yeah, not so much. It appears to have been a. It appears to have been a scheduling like area. So there's not exactly. It's not exactly clear why in the scheduling group chat that he was also sharing attack details. But. But beyond the signal thing because we've all covered that at this point. Beyond the signal.

[Ryan Grim]

This was his personal phone.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, which we already knew.

[Ryan Grim]

Which apparently the other one was on his regular. His work phone.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Wait, what? Oh, I thought it was his personal phone.

[Ryan Grim]

This one is on his. Is on his personal phone.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Okay, I thought maybe it's confirmed this time. This is the personal.

[Ryan Grim]

His wife probably does not have her phone in lockdown mode either.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right? There you go. That's a good point.

[Ryan Grim]

His wife's phone must be hacked. There's no like. Cause she's known.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, you'd be an idiot not to.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. Cause she's known to go to all these events and travel with him. So if you're any spy agency with Pegasus, which is like, all the big ones now, like, you've hacked her phone. You were in there.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. That's scary. All right, so they possibly had access to that, you know, but beyond this is the reason it's coming out right now, by the way. According to the Pentagon's own admission, they're like former disgruntled employees. The reason why all these leaks are happening is because of the insane purge that is happening right now over at the Pentagon. So not only are Pete Hexseth here back in the spotlight, he's gonna have to answer for this before Congress investigations, et cetera. But already the Trump administration has set the standard that, no, there was no classified information sent here. Bullshit. Obviously. And number two, we're not gonna hold anybody accountable for it, including Mike Waltz, the guy who literally is responsible for much of this and for any OPSEC concerns or whatever. But at the same time, they're firing a bunch of people who clearly knew about some of this stuff and are now out for revenge. They're out for blood, and we can see some of that right now. And there's deep policy implications. Let's put C2, please, up on the screen. This is a statement from three former Pentagon officials who were fired and unceremoniously marched out of the building. One of them, former senior advisor Dan Caldwell. We've covered him on the show before. He's America first appointee. Very against war with Iran.

[Ryan Grim]

Loyal ally.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Sent out of the Hagseth.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah, loyal ally.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Former employee of Hegseth for over a decade. You've got his former deputy chief of staff, Darren Selnick, and Colin Carroll, who was the deputy Defense Secretary's former chief of staff as well, all said in a joint statement that they had, quote, not been told what exactly we were investigated for, if there is still an ongoing investigation or if there was even a real investigation of leaks to begin with. You know, remember, in the original leaks around this, we were told that this was a result of a leak investigation that involved polygraphs. And I was like, oh, man, that's, like, very serious. Well, actually, it turns out none of them have been polygraphed. It was a complete, like, fake investigation from the first place. Where Pete Hegstad stands in all this is totally unclear. It's like, are you running your own department? I mean, these are guys not only loyal to you, but are much more, at least from what I know. Are Very against war with Iran. Some of the more like bad elements of the Trump administration's foreign policy and for them to be fired. Meanwhile, they're protecting Mike Waltz and many of these other people who obviously are very pro war. It's very troubling. Ryan. So he's got former disgruntled staff on his hands. They're blaming the leaks on them. I don't know if it's true or not. It's possible. But I think more important is that when these people are not in the building with Hegseth around him. Look, he's a sponge, let's be honest, right? Like he, whatever is around him. Well, if the only people that are left are the pro war with Iran goons, not so good. He was one of the only three people in the Oval to speak out against an attack on Iran that the Israelis wanted us to do.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And you see a lot of kind of Trump supporting bots responding to this by saying, hey, hex is getting rid of the deep state, right? It's like, bro, so Hegseth brought these people in. These are not people who have been there before Hegseth. And now he's cleaning house. He built the house and then burned it down immediately. You put up this next element on the screen. Speaking of people he brought in, this is John Ulliott, who was the top spokesperson for Pete Hegseth yesterday published an op ed in Politico. Absolutely. Ripping the Pentagon to shreds, saying that the thing is in complete meltdown. One of the things he goes after the new kind of spokesperson department for was Hegseth's first response to the signal chat. Oliad says, the thing you do is you get all the bad news out first. Instead, they tried to play semantic games with whether or not these were war plans or attack plans, which then prompted Jeffrey Goldberg to release all the attack plans and say, okay, call them whatever you want. Here they are. From Uliad's perspective, it's like, dude, what are you doing? Like 101pr is to be like, shame. Mike Waltz did that. We won't let it happen again. Instead he turned it into a multi week story that then focused on him rather than Mike. Walt faults Uliad, interestingly in this piece, says outright that he doesn't think that these guys that were fired for leaking were actually leaking and that some of them were told, according to Ulyat, that the investigation was about to wrap up and was going to exonerate them, and yet they were marched out anyway. Now we also know that Joe Casper, who is Pete Hagsett's chief of staff is the one who was assigned to lead the leak investigation. Now, he claims that he delegated this to other people. That's fine. That's what chiefs of staff do. They delegate those. But he himself has now been moved out of his job, according to Politico. There's some dispute. There's some dispute about that, which is insane. Like, okay, wait a minute. Are you chief of staff or you're not chief of staff? Staff.

[Sagar Enjeti]

The whole thing is preposterous. And we are watching these people now squabble in public. John Oliott, as you said, the former spokesperson. They're like, he was invited to be fired or whatever. It's like, well, he was employed there for. At least you hired him. And not only did you hire him, you've actually been working for the Trump administration of the campaign now for, like, some seven years. So you can't exactly say that. This is not somebody. This is a cooler.

[Ryan Grim]

Never knew the guy.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Never seen the guy. Yeah, exactly. And, yeah, I mean.

[Ryan Grim]

And he says, I'm still a Hexith friend.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I love the guy within all of this. Let's put the next one up on the screen, is you can see here how the entire, like, inner circle around Pete Hexath is now at war with one another and that all of the people who it seems were most loyal to him somehow have been fired. Now, I have a very difficult time seeing how you can be fired, marched out of the building, all the people who are allegedly so loyal to you without you having some say over it. I mean, can you really be fired at the Department of Defense without the say so of the. But, you know, the Secretary of Defense.

[Ryan Grim]

The person who's running the building, he must be read in on this, right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. So either you're read in or you're not read in. That's even scary. That means that the building is running without you. How does that work? Is this some deep state operation? That's what some people seem to be cleaning. I just have no clue. I just know this is a cluster, and this is not how you run the largest office building in the entire world. Right. And literally the world's preeminent superpowers, military. It's not even just about competence. Like I said, the policy implications of this are crazy important because the people around him had views. They had strong views. They'd been around him, they had trust. And in their trust, they were able to advocate for a view which is never held at the highest levels of the American government. It was one of the hopes I had for this administration, for this government. So then to watch them get unceremoniously forced out and then similarly, to see Mike Waltz and the idiots around him, him not only to be elevated, but to be entrenched in power at a critical decision time about war with Iran. Very scary, Ryan.

[Ryan Grim]

Very scary. And what's unfortunate for the quote unquote, America first side of the foreign policy argument is that Hegseth claimed to be and was kind of sold as somebody who had been on the kind of war hawk side of foreign policy, supported the Iraq war, et cetera, but through his lived experience, as the left would call it, and through his camaraderie with veterans and seeing the absolute failure of American foreign policy to achieve the outcomes that the young men and women were sent to achieve, many of them dying to achieve, and then seeing it just all turn to ash in their mouth that he turned into an America first guy. If that's true, he has not stood up to that. There's so much pressure kind of in the Pentagon and in a war machine to become. To push back to that Warhawk side. He doesn't seem like he's been able to withstand that pressure and instead has pushed aside all of the people that would help him stand up to that. One person I talked to who knows all of all of these people, including Hegseth, said that it's a question of character that Hegseth has betrayed everybody who's ever been close to him in his life. And you can run through his life. Ask his mother, actually.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, I'm not gonna go there, but.

[Ryan Grim]

You can go there now. It matters because this matters policy. And so now he has betrayed all of those people who are professionally and personally close to him that he served with, that he worked in Concerned Veterans of America with, and is sycophantically siding with the more like, bloodthirsty generals and others who are pushing him to stop saying, no, don't get in the way of this. Let's bomb these people and just see what happens. And the other knock on him, besides the personal stuff, was that you've never run a large organization before, and now you're being asked to run the largest organization in the history of the world. Are you going to be up for that? We now have the answer. No, you're not up for it. Now, on the one hand, as somebody who doesn't want the Defense Department to accomplish its objectives, I support it being complete chaos and meltdown, but I don't want it to be A flailing, I.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Was going to say.

[Ryan Grim]

Exactly.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Because what happens is it becomes power. Limit to that becomes a power vacuum. The building will just do whatever the White House or them tell them to do. A weak Pentagon is actually very bad for America because it means that the White House is not only totally in control, but also that they, like, you need war planners, you need advisors, you need people to game all of this stuff out. And if you have a vacuum there at the top, first of all, you're just gonna leave it to the career staff, who we should trust the least. But then also you're gonna leave it to the vacuum of the neocons who are running the National Security Council.

[Ryan Grim]

Right. And it often is throughout history. The men and women who've been through war and are now at the top echelons of the military, both in the United States and other militaries, who paradoxically are the ones in the room who are saying this might not be a good idea.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, absolutely.

[Ryan Grim]

Yeah. I mean, what Sherman said, nobody who. What did he say? Nobody who's been to war could think it's anything other than hell. War as hell. And anybody who says otherwise hasn't been involved in it. And they have the credibility to then put the brakes on the chicken hawk neocons who are just ready to just launch tomahawks for whatever reason they can think of. The best time to attack Iran is yesterday. Second best would be today. If not that, let's plan for tomorrow. And so without a Pentagon, without any steady leadership, you. Right. You could create a vacuum for people like that to creep in.

[Crystal Ball]

Does this podcast make you happy? Of course it does. That's why you're here. But it only comes out once a week. For happiness, every night you need Adam and Eve.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes.

[Crystal Ball]

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[Walton Goggins]

So you want to start a business? You might think you need a team of people and fancy tech skills, but listen to me when I say you don't. You just need GoDaddy arrow. I'm Walton Goggins, an actor, and I like the sound of starting my own business. Walton Goggins goggle glasses. But I couldn't do this my own. GoDaddy Arrow uses AI to create everything you need to grow a business. It'll make you a unique logo, it'll create a custom website, it'll write social posts for you, and even set you up with a social media calendar. How cool is that? Well, listen to this. For a limited time, you can get Arrow all access for just a dollar a week for 12 weeks. We're talking all the AI power of GoDaddy arrow, plus a domain E commerce store, payments, professional email, a unified inbox. All for less money than I spend on deep tanning lotion while sunbathing off the Amalfi coast. You know what? That sounds like a plan. Get started at GoDaddy. Com. Terms apply.