E (2:23)

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A (2:47)

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?

E (2:59)

Indeed we do. As we begin this morning, major questions about whether or not peace talks in Islamabad or are on. Jeremy Scala is going to join us to try to parse through the latest of what we know and what his latest reporting is. So very fortunate to be joined by him. We're gonna take a look at the economic fallout. Trump saying directly that his energy secretary is wrong about when gas prices will be coming back down. The UAE is asking the US For a potential bailout. We'll get the response there as well as other Gulf Arab state fallout that we're already seeing. Trump is having to go out and promise he is not controlled by Israel. This comes in the wake of very interesting Fox News appearance from Ro Khanna where he is fighting with Maria Br. So we will bring you that. We've got a round of discussions on antisemitism, including a college student who is being prosecuted for a joke about Netanyahu. And Palantir is out with a new very dystopian manifesto that we are going to dig into as well.

A (3:54)

Yeah, I don't know, it's been out for a while but took the Internet by storm. So that'll be excited to talk about that. Thank you to everyone subscribing BreakingPoints.com, become a Premium subscriber. We're doing our AMA later today where we'll enlighten anyone. I missed yesterday unfortunately due to some car trouble out of state. But perhaps you will find out how I feel about marijuana during the ama. You can pay for that privilege. Otherwise I will exclusively reveal how I feel about weed.

E (4:24)

We're all waiting with bated breath.

A (4:26)

Breaking points.com otherwise please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel and if you're listening to the podcast, please share an episode with a friend. Really helps other people find the show. But let's go ahead and start with all of these crazy updates, even just this morning breaking with this Iran cease fire negotiations.

E (4:42)

Yeah. So just to bring everybody up to speed as best I can, the negotiations have Been on and off. We're getting reports from mainstream outlets, mostly with Pakistani sourcing, that the Iranians are planning to attend negotiations in Islamabad. Yet we're getting a lot of tough signaling from the Iranians, this in the wake of that ship seizure, which was a real escalatory move and a lot of triumphalist talk from Trump that seems intended to humiliate them. Now, this morning, we've got a couple more things for you. Let's put this first part up on the screen here. We've got an announcement from the Department of War that US Forces just conducted a right of visit maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned Mount Tefani without incident in the Indo Pakom area of responsibility, as we've made clear, will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran anywhere that they operate. International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels of freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain. This consistent with the threat that the US Would expand the blockade basically globally to go after any ships that were planning that had any association with Iran. So again, in terms of whether or not these talks are even going to happen, this would be another bitter pill that Iran would have to swallow and really sort of a concession that they would have to make in order to go to the table. Because the understanding that they had Friday was, okay, we're going to say that the Strait of Hormuz is open. You are also going to remove your blockade. But Trump insisted. No, we're going to keep our blockade in place indefinitely. Some sort of deal is struck. We had the seizure of the ship yesterday. Today we have this news. So not a good sign.

A (6:35)

No. And actually the seizure of these ships is much more about Iran's war effort than it actually is in terms of oil. So, again, there is a lot of news that's been coming out about this blockade, a lot of fake news, actually, from the American and the Iranian side claiming multiple violations and people to go through. So Lloyds actually crunched some of the data. About 27 different ships were actually able to get through. Some of them were oil related. Now, this is where you need to, to pay quite a bit of attention is that this was, quote, without incident in the Indo Pacom area of responsibility. So we don't know exactly where and what, but you can take a couple of different clues. So in this ship and in a previous ship that was seized yesterday, I think it was. Yeah, yesterday that you Guys covered. Both of those were either en route from China and are suspected to have some sort of either military technology or assistance, and. Or there's a specific chemical I was reading about which is very helpful to the Iranian missile program. And so actually, what this blockade has been about now so far, in terms of the actual enforcement actions has been on trying to quell any of the military technology or military infrastructure needed to rearm for the war, not necessarily just for oil, which I think, again, you would only really do if this wasn't about economic pressure, but if you intended to restart the war. And this was kind of a message to the Iranian war machine, who is doing its best to dig itself out and to re up for any potential reigniting of hostility. So, again, it's very, very unclear the number of ships that have actually gone and haven't gone through, but it is a major escalation to be boarding Iranian ships at sea in the middle of a blockade. Also at a time where allegedly in some sort of a ceasefire, it definitely puts all of the talks at risk, but more so it just shows the mixed messages that are happening in Tehran. I also spoke to a couple of people, and one of the different. This is basically an open source as well. The biggest difficulty for talks with Iran are actually very similar to ours. Who does the vice president speak for? Does he speak for the president? Who does Jared Kushner and Steve Wyckoff, who do they really speak for?

E (8:37)

Right, yeah.

A (8:38)

Everything with the vice president, they have trust, but it's not really negotiating with him if he's calling back to Trump eight different times. Well, Golubov and those guys, they don't have total authority necessarily to make a deal. So they've gotta go through this byzantine network of IRGC couriers to get to the supreme leader. How alive and awake is he? Nobody has any idea. Right. And so on the Iranian side, that's why I think you saw with the foreign minister, when he's declared the strait open, and then the IRGC immediately said, close, guys, guess what? We killed the only person in the country had any respect. I know it feels like ancient history. The Ayatollah, he was the only guy who had basic control over everyone now

E (9:18)

whose word was final.

A (9:20)

Yeah, his word was law. Right. And he actually could give an order on a phone, this guy. I mean, you've got a foreign minister who's seen as more amenable. Golubov and those people, they definitely seem to want some sort of a talk. But then these newer IRGC commanders, I think we talked about it previously in one of our shows from the Financial Times, they're much more hardline and they're like, no, that's not going to happen. So internal warfare inside the system. The system was Byzantine, no matter what. It really relied on the Ayatollah as the total arbiter. It's not meant for this current system. That's why the IRGC was very effective in war, because they had immediate command and control, the ability to horizontally escalate. It makes it very difficult to have to sign some sort of a deal. So when Vance is sitting across the table, who's he really sitting across the table from?

E (9:59)

Right?

A (9:59)

It's the same question on both sides. Very, very difficult.

E (10:01)

Well, and there was all this, will he or won't he? With regard to JD Vance? one point yesterday, Trump said that Vance was already en route to Tehran when he was literally still in D.C. so, you know, we got a report during the show yesterday. We had to change what was being reported because things were shifting so much. And it is significant because, you know, I don't know that this respect is really deserved. But the Iranians have no use for Wyckoff and for Kushner whatsoever. And if the negotiations were just Wykoff and Kushner leading that delegation, I don't think we should even bother to really cover them. They would be going nowhere. They really insist on having J.D. vance there because they feel that he has been more opposed to war. They don't feel like he is as much a direct asset of Israel as Witkoff and Kushner are. So that's why it was significant, all this question of whether he's going or not. The latest understanding is that he is leaving today to go to Islamabad for these talks. We still have no idea whether or not the Iranians are going to go. Let's go ahead and put the latest Trump truth up on the street. This is a 0B, cuz again, this is not a great sign in terms of trying to extend calm the waters enough that Iran could feel that they could show up at these negotiations without it just be completely humiliating. Trump tweets this down or truths this down. Iran has violated the ceasefire numerous times. Now, of course, Iran is looking at the US and also looking at Israel, which continues to bombard Lebanon, albeit at a lower level than previously, and certainly feels like the ceasefire is being violated on the US and Israeli side as well. And so yesterday I put a one up on the screen first. We were getting all these reports. Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, are Saying, okay, the Iran. And like I said before, that information appeared to be coming from the Pakistanis. It appeared that the Iranians were telling the Pakistanis, or possibly it's hopium from the Pakistanis, that they were planning to attend. But then we started getting all of these very tough statements from Golubov, from Iraqi, from every significant player on the Iranian side here. Golubov says Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table, in his own imagination, into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. In the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield. That new cards on the battlefield piece that's consistent with the reporting that they've been aggressively trying to rebuild and recover from some of their losses as much as they can in this short window of the ceasefire. It does not outright say we aren't going to the talks, but obviously signaling that they are unhappy with what the US has been doing. And much more hardline rhetoric than where we were on Friday when you had Arachi saying the strait is basically open and signaling that they wanted to de escalate in order to get back to the table. So that's where things stand. And I'll say, Sagar, this is a truly very pivotal moment. The temporary ceasefire expires, depending on your counting of this, either today or tomorrow. Trump said tomorrow, so maybe he just sort of extended the deadline today, just

A (13:16)

unilaterally taking Islamabad time.

E (13:18)

Yeah, whatever. Anyway, it's set to expire very shortly and we've got a possibility of. Okay, does everybody come back to Islamabad and both sides have an interest in getting a deal? They do. The Iranians want sanctions relief. They want some sort of way out of this. This has been very devastating for them. Even as they have been able to assert control and strategically have a lot of victories here, it still has been very devastating for them. And they need that sanctions relief in order to be able to fully recover, rebuild and maintain their. Because economically, they were on very shaky ground with their own population. So that's very important for them. Obviously, Trump needs to get out of this thing because it's an absolute disaster for him. The, you know, gas prices are still very high. We're going to talk more in the show about this looming economic crisis, which draws closer every single day that this continues. So he has an incentive here, too. But the divide is possibly unbridgeable. So we really are kind of on a knife's edge right now about whether or not these Talks even continue. And if they don't continue, does Trump just sort of walk away and tell the Israelis, you're on your own, we're done here, or do we go back to the escalation trap that Robert Pape has talked about?

A (14:34)

I think on a long enough timeline, the escalation trap is inevitable. In interim Trump truly, I mean, look, all the reporting, I can only take it, you know, somewhat at its word is they he's very, he's over the war. He wants it to be over. He doesn't want to resume full blown combat hostilities. You saw how it didn't go well for us, didn't go well for the allies. I think this gray space is which what we're going to be living in now for quite some time in the same way that we lived in the gray space of the June to whatever the June to February 28th attack, where it was will they, won't they talks? No talks. I mean, in some ways, while the no war benefits the United States because oil prices are relatively stable, still much higher than where they were, but relatively stable, it benefits Iran too. They have, you know, they can rearm, they can reconsolidate command and control, they can relook at some of the targets, get some more satellite data, all of that. However, I do think what the Iranians are showing and look also for them, they can they in the same credible way that Trump wants to be like, see, I did everything I took to make a deal. Their population, we're not there. You and I have no idea. At the end of the day, like most people don't want to be bombed incessantly or at war. So maybe their population has to be made to feel that like we really did do everything we possibly could to avoid this before we enter some sort of a total war. If I had to bet, I wouldn't bet on a total war resumption like immediately. But you know, that's the risk is this is the tail. We were already after the straits were closed after two to three weeks. It was the worst case scenario economically that we could have ever foreseen. And that's don't just ask me, ask the war planners and everybody else in the government who's speaking honestly. So you're right. I mean the risk of it is incredibly, incredibly high. I don't know where things are going to go. If I had to bet sometime this week people will sit down. But as we've learned now, sitting down does not translate to real success. Not when you're dealing with an erratic person like Donald Trump, who is on again, off again, blockade, no blockade, seizure. They still, it's very Vietnamesque in that there's all these talks happening, but the end of the day, they believe that pressure itself is the only thing that will result in success. And that's just not correct. Now so far. The other side has to save face. They get a vote and it's very possible that very soon they may just say, we're fed up with this and they restart the war on their terms. And if that's the case, then we have very little that we can do.

E (16:53)

Yeah. And of course the Israelis, the whole way will be. And they will be bound and determined right, to get back into this war and do everything that they possibly can to effectuate that outcome. Because for them, the war ending or even pausing at this point is just wholly unacceptable. And for Netanyahu personally, in terms of, you know, all of his corruption issues and his political standing, et cetera, he finds it to be utterly unacceptable. So that's obviously the, you know, continued wildcard that hangs over all of this. So with all of that being said, let's go ahead and bring in Jeremy Scahill for his assessment of where things stand right now.

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E (19:59)

joining us now is great friend of the show and drops site news own Jeremy Scahill. Great to see you Jeremy.

A (20:04)

Good to see you man.

G (20:04)

Great to see both of you.

E (20:06)

So what is your latest sense of whether the Iranian delegation is going to show up in Islamabad or not?

G (20:13)

Well, you know, the entire vibe right now in Tehran has been that Iran believes that it has greater leverage now than it's had at any point. They were really reluctant to engage in this two week pause because they were concerned that the US And Israel would use it to try to rearm or reposition themselves to launch another attack. And the Iranians, I'm told, were more than willing to go forward and do another round of negotiations as long as it was led by JD Vance and not Witkoff and Kushner. And they, to their mind, had a breakthrough last Friday when Abbas Arachi, the Iranian foreign minister, posted that the Strait of Hormuz was going to be reopened. And there was, I'm told, a sort of backdoor understanding that Arachi would post that and then Trump would say what he wanted about the good news. And that is what happened. Initially, Trump said, thank you. In fact, he referred to it as the Strait of Iran rather than the Strait of Hormuz. But then whether he got called by the Israelis or, you know, Other people started influencing him or he was watching on social media. Trump then moments later, says, wait a minute. No, we're keeping our blockade in force. And so what that kicked into motion was a series of events where the Iranians said, wait a minute, we're not gonna move forward with another round of negotiations as long as Trump is engaged in this erratic, threatening messaging and that they have this blockade enforced. And then you had an incident where the US Navy actually shot at an Iranian ship and seized it and took custody of it. And what I'm told is that in the discussions that took place, that were mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad, that Ghaliba, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and other Iranian officials made clear to Vice President J.D. vance that in order for another round to occur, there couldn't be this kind of threatening rhetoric from the United States. So it wasn't just the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It was, in fact, Trump's rhetoric. And the Iranians weren't just saying, we don't like this. They were saying, we had a diplomatic understanding that this is not how things were going to go down. So that's what caused this situation where there were reports that, like, J.D. vance had his bags packed and was on the plane or his plane was imminently going to land. And once again, Trump's erratic behavior combined with the belligerence seems to have caused a problem moving forward. But the sense I get from the Iranians is that they are interested in reaching a deal, they are interested in talking, but they don't believe that they're walking into this as the weaker party. On a tactical level, they think Trump is in trouble.

A (22:41)

Yeah, Jeremy, it's very, very difficult to decipher. And let's be clear. We're recording this in the morning, about an hour before you came on, the United States took another Iranian ship. And so that's what happened about an hour ago. At the same time, all weekend, Trump is touting some sort of JCPOA 2.0. Let's put a 3 up here on the screen. Trump says the deal we are making with Iran will be far better than the jcpoa, commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. It was a guaranteed road to a nuclear weapon, et cetera, if I did not terminate that deal. He goes on to trash, but he says it will be something the entire world will be proud of, instead of the years of embarrassment and humiliation that we have been forced to suffer due to incompetent and cowardly leadership. So at the very same time, Jeremy, he's Belligerent. He's seizing ships, he's threatening attacks. This morning, he said Iran has violated a ceasefire numerous times. Just yesterday, he is saying, maybe we'll do JCPOA 2.0. We'll do some sort of Iran nuclear deal. How do the Iranians interpret these mixed signals?

G (23:42)

Yeah, I mean, this is whiplash diplomacy. And, in fact, Donald Trump, according to the Wall Street Journal profile about him recently, seems to think that by intentionally acting this way and, you know, making derogatory references about Islam, et cetera, that somehow that's a language that the Iranians are going to respect or it's going to move the needle. And I think, actually the opposite is true. I see no evidence whatsoever that this is having, you know, the impact that Trump thinks it is. In fact, as we've talked about repeatedly on this show, it's been the US that has been over and over asking for discussions or talks with Iran on the issue of this JCPOA thing. I think it's important to say something that I don't often see mentioned, and that is that the entire rationale for this war, the idea that he's gonna stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, the entire thing was based on an epic lie. And the terms that are on the table right now are in no meaningful way any different from what Iranian negotiators had put on the table in Geneva as of February 27, the day before the United States launched this war. I've been told by multiple Iranian officials and insiders that Iran is not going to agree to hand over to the United States its enriched uranium, that they are discussing a supervised dilution of it, a much more robust presence of international inspectors inside of Iran. Trump certainly could say that he's gotten some terms that extend beyond what the JCPOA provided for. I think that's true, but that was also true back in February. And the Iranians that I'm speaking to, officials that is, are speaking in a very derisive manner about Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. On the one hand, they're saying they had no technical know how they didn't understand the significance of what we were putting on the table. And on the other hand, Iranians told me that they have intelligence that Witkoff and Kushner, particularly Kushner, that they were getting information from the Israelis during the negotiations. In other words, they're saying that they have intelligence that indicates that Netanyahu was deeply involved and sticking himself in the middle of this negotiation or discussion process. So it's a combination of technical Ignorance and a total lack of understanding of the issues that, like, professional negotiators would be understanding. And then the fact that the Iranians are saying, we know that at various turns it seemed like we were making progress. And then Witkoff or Kushner start talking to Netanyahu and then things go south.

E (26:15)

How much unity is there on the Iranian side, though? Because it seems that there's been a bit of a divide in desired approach between the Iraqis and Golubovs of the world and the IRGC command. Is that also a challenge for them? If we get back to the negotiating table here in terms of having the authority to strike some sort of deal?

G (26:36)

You know, I think, and I'm basing this on talking to well informed Iranian sources, I think there's been a very robust debate inside of the echelons of power within Iran. I don't think that that is fictional at all. You definitely have people that are very concerned, if not angered, that this two week, you know, temporary ceasefire was. Was brokered. There were people pushing for Iran to keep fighting on, believing that they had the United States and Israel backed into a corner. With Israel's supply of interceptors dwindling, with Trump in chaos, with the global economy in shambles, with the Gulf Arab countries just absolutely livid that this war was extending on, with the prospect of if Trump and Netanyahu kept bombing that you were gonna have a great escalation of attacks against infrastructure in the GCC countries, that you could have started to see more American soldiers being killed. So clearly there were Iranians that were saying we should absolutely not have any kind of a pause. But I would also say that there's a political propaganda aspect to this psychological warfare where you have these narratives, largely promoted by anonymous US officials and Israelis, that there's sort of this massive split happening, that the IRGC is, you know, is angry with Arachi, the foreign minister, and Golubov is doing this. I think what we've really seen in a clear way is that Iran is a nation of institutions. Galiboff, one inside analyst, told me this morning, Galiba would not be leading this delegation or making these proclamations if he was not empowered by the Supreme National Security Council and it was signed off on by Mojtaba Khamenei and his office. So I think that that's true. I think there's a lot of exaggeration to that. There certainly are debates within Iranian society. One other thing that I think is important to point out is, and I spoke this morning to a very famous Iranian analyst Hassan Ahmadiyyan. And he said to me, can you name another instance that you can think of of a country whose political, religious, military, senior leadership was assassinated and then it turned around and was able to fight a world superpower to a total standstill where the president of the United States is the one who seems to be desperate for an off ramp. He was saying that in response to this question of isn't Iran in a sort of crumbling state, isn't it backed up against the wall? And he's saying, point out to me another example of something like this going down.

A (29:07)

It's really fascinating because like you said from the Trump side, let's put a five here on the screen all weekend. And this also seems to be very intentional, is Trump wants a deal. He's also saying I'm winning a war by a lot. He says that Iran is losing $500 million a day, that the blockade will not be taken off until there is a deal. It is, quote, absolutely destroying Iran. And so he simultaneously wants a deal. He's threatening action. There's also real action that's taking place on the high seas. Jeremy, you just discussed very eloquently the problems on potential problems on the Iranian side about factions. But it seems to be the same case here in the US From Saeed Morandi, who we spoke to here on the show. He was part of the Iranian delegation. There were major weird communication things happening on the US Side. Jeremy, Islamabad officials are leaking this morning. They do expect some talks to happen. But my question is about how much we should read even into talks. Like if talks do occur, how positive of a signal is that for some sort of extension of a ceasefire? And would Iran even want an extension of a ceasefire?

G (30:12)

I mean, think first of the incredible risks to Donald Trump if the United States does decide to resume this war. The Iranians are saying that they've spent the last two weeks replenishing their, their technology and their launch capacity. And you know, some of that may be exaggeration, but I'm certain that it's true. I mean, there's already satellite evidence to indicate that they've cleared out some of the mountain bases where they have launchers and other equipment, these, you know, so called missile cities. So there's, there is tremendous risk and the fact is that that US Military infrastructure has been damaged to a tremendous degree in the Persian Gulf.

E (30:48)

Gulf.

G (30:48)

Israel would certainly be hit very hard. It may well happen. Trump may decide to move forward and try to resume strikes, thinking that it will be, you know, in some form of A limited capacity. But what I was told by a senior Iranian official is that if Donald Trump does decide to do this, that Iran is gonna cut off indefinitely all diplomatic channels, meaning they are not going to just allow a few more days or another week of bombing and then come back to the table. Also, Iranian officials told me that they've been engaged in parallel discussions with their own strategic partners, including nuclear powers. By that, I take it to mean China primarily, but also likely Russia, about what it looks like to establish a different form of deterrence or restore what they perceive as regional balance. And so, you know, Iran is not just putting all of its eggs in the basket of making a deal with the United States. It believes that China and Russia are not going to want this to go on. And so part of what we're seeing is that the Iranians are telling the Chinese in particular, yes, in good faith, we're gonna try to make a deal with the United States. But if Trump, who's an erratic, unpredictable, whimsical character, decides to move forward and Israel wins the day and they try to go for completely smashing the Iranian state, then we have no alternative but to say to China and Russia, hey, what are you gonna do about this now? And I think that's gonna become a real story in the coming weeks.

A (32:07)

Interesting.

E (32:07)

Jeremy Tritiparsi has been saying he thinks the most likely outcome is that whether the talks happen or not, it's unlikely that because the two sides are so far apart, it's unlikely that an actual deal will be struck. But Trump may just walk away, leaving a sort of, you know, limbo state where there's no sanctions relief. Iran still has control of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's left to its own devices to do whatever, you know, things they're going to do. Do you think that's an acceptable state for Iran? Do you think that that is a sort of stable status quo, new status quo that could be reached out of all of this?

G (32:45)

I asked that exact question last night to a senior Iranian official because Joe Kent, who just left as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center a few days ago, actually posted that very concept on Twitter on X, saying that there's a third option, which is Trump could just sort of decide to end the war and walk away from it. I think there's a case to be made that Iran benefits on a strategic level by being attacked by the United States or by having the looming threat of war, because it can respond in an asymmetric way. And Iran has been able to win by preventing the United States and Israel from achieving their objectives. And there is an argument that I think is a compelling one from a purely American point of view, which is that if Trump were to say, listen, the Strait of Hormuz has to be dealt with by Europe, China, all these other countries that are the primary forces using it, we've already massively degraded Iran, okay, they don't want to make a. A deal. Let's ratchet up the sanctions. Let's try to continue with our covert and overt support for attempts at armed insurrection inside of Iran. Let's let their economy continue to crumble. Let's let them weaken it. We'll pull back, because actually, mission is already accomplished. So watch what's gonna happen to them. There's a case to be made that from an American perspective, that'll be the wisest move, where Trump just sort of walks away. What the Iranian official, though, said to me, he pushed back and said, the people that are promoting this, yes, it does seem like it would be strategically wise of Trump to a degree, but they're underestimating the strength of Iranian institutions, and they also are failing to look at other parts of history where we've been in much more dire economic straits. So what they're saying is that they're leaning into their alternative alliances, that they believe that much of the world now sees the US And Israel for what they are, and that the dynamics have shifted to such a degree that Iran believes that it could endure that scenario. And in fact, in fact, a senior official told me he thinks it's most likely that you're not going to have a comprehensive, detailed technical agreement, certainly not with the Trump administration. And the most likely scenario is a kind of vague backing away from this, perhaps in the context of a very limited sort of deal.

A (34:55)

Last question before we go. Why would they allow that? Cuz they think they can weather the storm with Chinese loans or Russian loans or.

G (35:01)

I mean, the Iranians. You mean?

A (35:02)

Yeah, the Iranians. Why would they want that? Why would they not restart the war?

G (35:05)

No, I don't think that they. I don't believe at all that that's what they want. I think that they very much want to have sanctions relief. I think that they very much want to have their tens of billions of dollars unfrozen. I think they believe that they're being reasonable on what they're offering on enriched uranium and the kind of oversight mechanisms that they would be willing to allow inside of Iran that may well extend beyond what Obama was able to get in 2015. I don't think they want that at all. I think more what the senior official was saying to me is we're realistic about who we're dealing with here. And if people think that Trump walking away in that manner is gonna mean that we crumble, fall apart, and the Islamic Republic ceases to exist, that they're underestimating us just as the world has underestimated us since February 28th, that's what it is. No, I think Iran wants to make a deal. I think they feel like they have the leverage to do it. The wild card is that they are dealing with a corrupt gangster, insider trading businessman masquerading as a head of state who is using the White House as sort of his personal business platform to enrich his cronies and family members.

E (36:11)

So, Jeremy, last question for you. If you had to say you had to put your money on one side or the other, do you think the Iranian delegation shows up in Islamabad this week?

G (36:20)

I think there is going to be another round of talks. I think the question is going to be how senior of a delegation the Iranians will send. I say that with the caveat that we could be watching this on record while we're also watching bombs hitting Tehran and other places, because that's been the pattern for the past two years. But I think there's a high likelihood that very soon there is going to be another round of talks.

E (36:41)

Yeah. Well, we're going to endeavor to get this segment posted as quickly as we possibly can since things are changing literally by the minute. Jeremy Scahill, always great to have your analysis. Really, really valuable. Thank you so much.

A (36:52)

Thank you, Jeremy.

G (36:53)

Thank you guys.

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A (39:59)

turning now to the economy and part of the reason that Donald Trump is desperate to wrap things up with Iran. Let's put this up here on the screen. I love this story. Trump says that the Energy secretary is quot totally wrong on gas prices not dropping to $3 a gallon until next year. President Trump spoke to the Hill on Monday and he disagreed with the Secretary of Energy Chris Wright's assessment that gas prices may not drop below $3 per gallon until next year. Quote no, I think he's wrong on that. Totally wrong. When asked if he believes gas prices will drop, he said, quote as soon as this ends. Wright had previously told CNN Sunday gas Prices may not drop below $3 a gallon until next year. Shipping restrictions in the Straits of Hormuz, I don't know. That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year, quote, but prices have likely peaked and they will start to go down. The Secretary added, certainly with the resolution of the conflict, you will see gas prices go down. Prices across the board on energy will continue to go down. So gas remains about $4.02 a gallon nationally, remains very high and stabilizing right around probably, I don't know, $3.90, 4 bucks a gallon. But the point of the below $3 gallon is where we all were on February 27th. On February 27th, the day before the war launched, gas was $2.90 a gallon. So the $1 or so increase, where there was likely to be some sort of stabilization, translates into tens of billions of dollars every single month that an American must spend, that America must spend on gas than it was not previously. And I think that is the most direct consequence. Diesel actually still remains one of those where if you're not a trucker, if you don't work in the industry or any of that, you don't have a full familiarity of the general impact that's having. The margin for many of these independent contracting truckers is getting destroyed. Many businesses already raising prices. If you, you know, I had a tow truck over the way, I was asking about it, and I was like, so what's, what's going on with diesel? And he showed me the receipt. It's 100 gallon tank, and it's only diesel for this tow truck, so $650. I was like, so wait, how long does this take? And he's like, well, man, this thing gets five to eight dollars a gallon. And so once a week, depending on the tow job. I was like, once a week, it's $650 per gap. I was like, oh, my God. I was like, this is insanity. And he was like, yeah, man. And before the war, you know, it was half of that or something. Like, I was like, good Lord. So that is a direct consequence I just gave you of a business where. What do you think he's gonna do? He's gonna sit there and take it or are they gonna raise the price? It's like, what do you think's gonna happen?

E (42:35)

It's a very inelastic sort of thing. You have to pay what they say you're gonna pay. So they're holding the car hostage, literally.

A (42:41)

You're so right. Yeah. When you're stuck on the side of the road, you will pay whatever you have to pay to get towed. That is exactly the problem, though. It's a general tax on the entire country. So when we start to think about all of these things, it's very obvious with the economic impact. The also thing that the Energy Secretary is trying to be honest about is what are we, six weeks, seven weeks, something like that, since hostilities started. That's six, seven weeks of no oil through the Straits of Hormuz or I don't know what 5% of the oil that used to come through. That's just not going to cut it. The demand destruction has already begun. The natural gas problem in Asia remains catastrophic. There's still so many like the shortages and all of those things. While there were some delay in the fear over that there has still, it's still happening. It's not like there's been a general resumption of oil flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Helium remains a huge problem. We're okay, apparently here in the US we're oversupplied. But the rest of the nation, big problem. Fertilizer is already sky high. We already know that we almost certainly will have higher food prices six months to come. And that's if everything ends today, even right now. So, you know, they're delusional whenever it comes to gas.

E (43:46)

Did you see the tweet, golly boff put out trolling where he, he was saying basically, I mean, his point was basically like you all are vibe trading, like, you know, speculation on oil, but there's an underlying reality, which is exactly what Rory Johnson Johnson's been telling us the whole time around, and he included in there the Bloomberg terminal code for looking up the Brent crude prices. So some real inside baseball knowledge there in terms of the financial system. But there's also increasing signs that Trump, as much as he blusters publicly and pretends like nothing bothers him and that he totally knows what he's doing and he's unfazed by all of this, that, that not just Republicans but Trump specifically knows he's got big problems here in terms of the economic landscape. We'll put B2 up on the screen. This is, you know, they're drawing on reporting here from Politico. You had a Republican analyst who said we're gonna get killed in the midterms if the gas prices do not come down. So you can understand why Trump is so sensitive that he goes out and directly says, no, my energy secretary is completely wrong on gas prices because he knows what a big problem this Is. And that was the other thing that really came through from that Wall Street Journal piece that Emily and I talked about yesterday. Sagre, I know you read as well where Trump was freaking out privately. Specifically after that one fighter jet was brought down and two airmen were missing. He went on this multi hour tirade that was so insane he had to be shut out of the room while his aides gathered and tried to figure out okay, what's the plan? So the commander in chief was so unhinged he had to be completely shut out of those conversations. And he also privately is asking people how they think this is going and worrying aloud about the comparison with Jimmy Carter and the way that the Iranian hostage crisis just completely nuked him. I mean his presence is already not going well in terms of reality and the public perception, but that the Iranian hostage crisis was just the death of him from a political perspective. And Trump is apparently talking about that privately to his aide. So he knows this is a major problem.

A (46:00)

He should be because it is very 70s esque and a lot look his very best. That's the book biography of Jimmy Carter. I recommend everybody go read it cuz all anybody really knows about Carter is what happened with Malaise and Iran. Yeah, it's a complicated long story. Allow me to tell you a little bit thing called the Panama Canal Treaty which everybody forgets now and people literally lost their Senate seats over. But the point is, is that for a multi year period there was hit after hit after hit. We've kind of accelerated that for a one year timeline. Trump was already dramatically unpopular before the war. This is kind of pushing things over the edge, but it is Carter esque in terms of that's what will become the defining legacy. But there were a lot of things that fed into the lack of trust from the country over these issues and with the war to make it so that when that does happen and you are massively unpopular and you know, again, look, people have accused people of pointing these things out as like crisis monger or fear mongering or any of that. I just think it's a responsibility to warn people like what I just talked about with the tow truck Ryan Diesel, that's happening. That is a thing. That's one month. How many months can somebody sit there and take it? Let's put the next one up here. Very interesting piece from Bloomberg. Accumulative global impact of the seven week war is beginning to emerge in the coming weeks. They specifically point to all of these different indexes which track inflation specifically for manufacturing. And you can already See that in many of them, that the composite pmi, manufacturing, PMI services, pmi, many of them are beginning to spike. And actually we saw some of the very beginnings of some of this for stagflation that happened just in the last month data. But really I think where you have to look is just at the OPEC number from last month. 27% reduction. Put before next on the screen please, because this just makes it very, very clear. The world is now in the biggest energy crisis in history. 600 million barrels of lost oil supply. The gas Prices are up 47% since December. Inflation is up 4%. A similar path to the 1970s. There you go. I mean it doesn't take a genius really to figure out where things are gonna go from here. The same oil shock in the 1970s is really what propelled the US economy into problems that lasted for forgetting when the recession ended in the 80s, maybe 82, 83. It took a long time, right, even with the resumption of Reagan after the whole hostage crisis and all that was solved. And the reason why is because the amount of dried up capital, the spreading effects of stagflation, interest rates, it really froze everybody. And it also scarred a generation forever. And I think our generation will be very similar to the 1970s generation who had to live through there's very high periods of inflation. It's not one to one obviously in terms of the numbers, but we've lived through it now for many years. We've had high inflation since 2021. Simultaneously though, somehow we've also had booming corporate profits and the rich getting phenomenally much richer. So it's much more of a generational conflict, very unique in its own way. But I think that the big economic story for me is just Asia. I don't think they will ever forgive us for what we have done to them them.

E (49:03)

Well, and Asia is also kind of a preview of where the rest of the world is going to be headed if this crisis is not ended. This Trump created crisis is not ended. They are hit hardest first. Then it's likely to spread, and Africa too by the way. Then it's likely to spread to Europe and then finally, you know, I mean, we're already seeing some impacts here, but in terms of the worst impacts, we do have some insulation which is kind of, you know, kind of gross, given that we're the ones that created the problem. But in any case, let's put this New York Times article up on the screen. This is B5 talking about how screwed Asia already is. They say the forces of scarcity hitting Asia may soon spread across the world. The Asia Pacific was hit hard and quick by the war in Iran. In its energy bottlenecks, scenes of crisis there indicate the problems are multiplying and spreading. You have one senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy center who's based in Sri Lanka who said the impacts are, are so rapid and deep, just from a magnitude perspective, this is really very, very, very large. They go in and document some of the specific problems starting with, you know, there's been already 92,000 flights canceled worldwide. That is double the pre war rate of cancellation. The largest spike in eliminated flights is linked to the Asia to Asia Pacific. And that is because of this issue of scarcity of jet fuel. We even have actually Air Canada had to cancel flights into New York City from I think it was Toronto to New York City because of this jet fuel shortage. So we are already seeing some of those effects here, not to mention airline prices. If you go and try to buy a ticket now, it's likely to be much more expensive than if you had bought it before the war. I'm seeing, you know, things on Twitter about people who are struggling to be able to afford to go to a funeral or a wedding or things that they had hoped to be able to attend. And that is amplified and magnified In Asia. You've also had halted production. They say many of Asia's most successful export industries require enormous amounts of energy and other ingredients from the Middle East. Seven weeks in stockpiles are running out. Cutbacks in manufacturing are now multiplying, revealing vulnerabilities rarely considered. Copper and nickel production, for example, rely on high heat from natural gas and also sulfur. Both are in short supply, forcing several Indonesian nickel processors to reduce output by at least 10%. And those are some of the knock on effects that as a layperson you don't necessarily see at the surface level. We all know that, you know, obviously energy is really critical to a whole lot of things. So so much of our imports come from Asia. You know, if they're cutting back, well, that is going to have knock on effects. Obviously it's huge effects for them directly, but knock on effects for us and for the rest of the world. So that impact is already here. And then you also have, you know, huge number of people that are at risk now of falling into poverty, they say. A UN report estimates 8.8 million people in Asia and the Pacific are at risk of falling into poverty because of the war, depending on how long hostilities last. And part of that problem too Sagrus, you were talking before is the issue with fertilizer, shortages in fertilizer coming at a critical time during planting season. And you've got, you know, people, vulnerable people around the world who are going to be facing prices that they simply cannot afford. Put B6 up on the screen because that speaks to the looming food crisis here. This is from the Financial Times. They say hunger and even famine are foreseeable consequences of the war in Iran. Now the world must act to shield the poorest from effects that will continue long after the fighting stops. So this is where we already are today.

A (52:44)

Here we go. In India, where industrial clusters have been shut down for weeks, workers are reversing urbanization, melting back to rural villages to thresh wheat. The cost of acetaminophen and antibiotics has already gone up, up because of production. For our purposes, TSMC says that they have enough helium on hand for production in the near term. But a prolonged crisis and then they're going to have real problems. Look, for our purposes, we have a ton of helium here in the US but again, as I've learned, shipping helium across the ocean is actually not that easy. It's got to be liquefied, it has to be cooled. It actually evaporates over a certain period of time. Getting it from here to Taiwan would be a serious, seriously costly endeavor. Potentially. There could even be shortages. There's all kinds of chemicals that are caught in the Persian Gulf, even like offshoots of the oil and gas industry. Urea is another example. I think the price of it is already at an all time high. I mean, none of this is a joke. And yes, Asia is a preview of our future, but also they are the closest allies in my opinion of the United States, especially economically. Just take a look at global GDP and global trade and like what we do, even with just Japan or South Korea, like their societies have been plunged into genuine chaos. Like their prime ministers, their presidents are. If you read their news every day, it's assuring the public about no shortages. And these crazy deals that they're having, they're going to Kazakhstan to buy oil and all. You know, they had the South Koreans in an envoy in Tehran and they were worried. They're like, is he gonna die? Because, you know, is Trump gonna restart the war? Cause he's trying to negotiate past issues on the very same day that the US does a blockade. I really don't think they will ever forgive us. Like, I think this will rewrite. This will fundamentally rewrite the US security relationship in East Asia at a time where we needed to do more to convince them that they should be on our side. And they were already pissed about the way that, the way the whole tariff situation went down. And they feel very burned about that. And now I think, you know, I don't know. I think this one will really be fun felt for a long time. And Beijing is salivating over it, despite whatever podcast person out there. What do they say? It's like 5D chess to beat China. It's like not even Trump thinks that. It's like they invent these ridiculous theorems about how great this is for the United States. I can't think of a single way that this has worked out better for anybody who lives in this country, except for, I don't know, a defense contractor. That's it. All right, let's get to the guy.

B (55:11)

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Ten minute oil change. Find your nearest shop@take5.com. All right, everybody. This was called Golf, but actually Donald Trump is doing a live interview with CNBC right now. So we've go ahead and culled some of the most important, newsworthy parts of the interview. We're gonna start with this, where Joe Kernan asks. You're saying that you need at least the prospect for a deal today or tomorrow, or else you will resume bombing. Here's what Trump had to say. You're saying that you need at least the prospects for a signed deal today and tomorrow, or else you would resume bombing Iran.

H (57:45)

Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's a better attitude to go in with. But, you know, we're ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible. You know, I built the military my first term. I'm using it now. The military, when I took it over from Barack Hussein Obama, they had just. It was so depleted, so sad. And I built it in my first term. You remember those big numbers? You talked to me about it once. That's a lot of money for military. I built it. We did a great job with our military, and we're using it now and rebuilding it, too. We've done a lot of rebuilding also in my first year.

A (58:21)

So there you go. Well, I expect to be bombing. The military is raring to go. Of course, could be bs, could be, of course, you know, all a negotiation tactic, but basically saying that the ceasefire will not be extended. All of this is nonsense and has been in the past. It very obviously could be extended. But at least that's the message that he wants going into Islamabad.

E (58:41)

Well, I'm just reflecting on what Jeremy told us, which is that, you know, the Iranians were upset not only about Trump saying we're gonna continue the blockade, but also about the continued threats that he insists on making. He made them yesterday saying he's gonna bomb Iran. Now here he is again threatening more bombing. So, you know, in terms of prospect of trying to get the Iranians to the table, this is profoundly unhelpful, obviously.

A (59:03)

Yeah, absolutely. There's more stuff that is coming out. Let's go to the next one. This actually confirms something I was saying. A little bit earlier about that ship that was headed to Iran. Trump is alleging that there was something on board that was a, quote, gift from China. Take a listen.

G (59:18)

Can you give us, I think it's

A (59:19)

on everyone's mind, the latest on where the Iran negotiations stand. We now know Tehran has publicly confirmed that it will send representatives to the meeting with Vice President Vance. What do you expect? What are you hearing at this point, sir?

H (59:38)

Well, as I said two days ago, when they said they won't send them, I said they'll be sending them. They have no choice but to send them them. What I think is that we're going to end up with a great deal. I think it's got, I think they have no choice. We've taken out their navy, we've taken out their air force, we've taken out their leaders, frankly, which does complicate things in one way. But these leaders are much more rational. It's a, it is regime change, no matter what you want to call it, which is not something I said I was going to do. But I've done it indirectly maybe, but I've done it. And I think we're in a very strong negotiating position to do what what other presidents should have done during a 47 year period. The blockade has been a tremendous success. They said two days ago we will open the strait. I said, no, we're not going to open the strait until we have a final deal. No, no, we want to open the strait. They said we're not opening. We totally control the strait. Just so you understand, for all the fake news out there, restocking, we caught a ship yesterday that had some things on it which wasn't very nice. A gift from China perhaps, I don't know, but I was a little surprised. But because I have a very good relationship and I thought I had an understanding with President Xi. But that's all right. That's the way war goes, right? But I will tell you that we have our military is incredible.

A (60:53)

That confirms something I said earlier. There were a lot of speculation on what that ship was, why they seized it. This basically confirms it. It was some sort of military equipment. And again, there's speculation there was a specific type of chemical necessary for manufacturing these ballistic missiles. But you take it a little bit earlier to what Donald Trump says there in the interview. It is more of the bellicosity of the wanting to strike about wanting they said that they're going to negotiate or they're going to show up to make a deal. I do think Jeremy's point here is very important. And Trito's been making this point as well. There is substantive movement in terms of the actual negotiation itself, but Trump. Trump consistently undermines it because the other side also has to present a win. And he is incapable of saying something other than they completely surrendered, and I got everything that I want. And maybe the Iranians could live with that if they got a lot of what they wanted, too, and they can project it to their domestic audience. But that's not where things are right now. They're under a literal naval blockade in a state of war against the United States. So all of this, I think it makes. I know that the talks are allegedly going to happen. I still think they probably will. Stuff like this does not make it more likely.

E (62:04)

Is what I would say the best thing Trump could do at this moment. Shut up, is shut the hell up. Right. That would be the. But of course, that is he is constitutionally incapable of shutting the hell up. So that was never gonna happen. And now you're at this place where it really is on a knife's edge. You have competing factions within Iran. You have a very strong faction that does not want these negotiations to go on at that did not think this was the right move to begin with. And every time Trump opens his dumb mouth and presents some false victory narrative, claiming there was regime change, claiming we have control of the strait, claiming that he's ready, in the words of Pete Hegsett, that we're reloaded, that we're ready to go back to bombing the military is raring to go, threatening new war crimes, which is what he did yesterday. Every time he does this, that makes the job of the Golubovs and the Rachis who would like to get back to the negotiating table, makes it much, much more difficult for them to be able to make the case to more hardliners who also have sway in power within the government, that this is an intelligent direction to go in. And it also can, let's say, they still decide to go. It also can impact their view of whether these negotiations are serious at all or whether they're just another delaying tactic so that the US can get back to bombing them and to warfare, because they have lots of good reasons to believe that that is really what's going on here, and that certainly is possible. So I find this all to be profoundly, profoundly unhelpful. And we know he's calling into CNBC now. He'll probably talk to four more reporters today and say 10 more contradictory things. And some of them will be indicating that he wants a deal. As we had all those true social screens yesterday, and then some of them will be probably new threats. This is the way that he operates. And I think it's very clear that his need to constantly fuel his own ego and project all this braggadocio to the world is deeply undermining his interest. His interest in getting to a deal and getting himself extricated from what is a completely disastrous conflict on every single level. I was listening to an interview with Trita actually this morning before he came in, and the way he put it is that both sides have to walk this careful balance of projecting a win to their population, but not doing so in such over the top terms that it ends up humiliating the other side and destroys the possibility of any sort of deal being made. And that is not, you know, delicacy and nuance is not an area that this President is particularly strongly suited for.

A (64:46)

Yeah, I mean, the more that I just keep looking at all of these comments, it's clear he's manic and he needs, needs to claim victory. And that's Trump is the same way he's always has believed that he is his best communications director. He doesn't believe anybody else can do it. That's why he constantly undermines, you know, sometimes it works tremendously to his benefit. His ability to dominate everything obviously has been his sole skill set of the last decade. However, in this particular case, I think he's finally met his match in terms of where he's dealing with an enemy that he dramatically underestimated. And now he's stuck in this vice grip where he needs victory, but he also has to get some sort of a concession. But he hasn't totally crushed them and doesn't really have that ability without a full scale invasion. So where things go from here, I don't know. All we can really say from looking at this is saying if he's gonna say, I'm ready to bomb and the ceasefire is not going to get extended. It's this funny thing, I remember it with the end civilization truth that he put out and all the MAGA people were like, ugh, you idiots. That's just how Trump talks. He always backs away. Well then what was the point? Cuz if, if you think that, then Iran is supposed to think, they're not supposed to take it seriously. But the madman theory means you're supposed to take it seriously, right? So shouldn't I take it seriously? I mean, it's like you preemptively are saying that it's unserious, but if that's the case, then it literally has no purpose in terms of a negotiating tactic or anything else. I just think this is the exact same way, where it's purely about his own decision to try and seek some sort of a victory narrative. But in the absence of the Iranians also not willing to play ball, I just think he's making things much more difficult.

E (66:26)

Yeah, absolutely. Because there's not only the question of do they get to the table, it's also a question of is there any room or possibility to hammer out what will be a very complex deal in a very short period of time. Remember, the JCPO negotiated over years, and that contained fewer issues than what would have to be negotiated here, because you'd basically need to renegotiate the entire scope of the JCPOA on nuclear enrichment and all of these complicated technical details. You also gotta deal with the strait. You also gotta deal with is the US Staying in the region. You've gotta deal with sanctions. You have all of these surrounding issues that have to be hammered out. There has to be some level of trust in order to be able to do this. So every time this president opens his mouth, he makes it more difficult not only for Iran. Iran to show up at all, but for there to be some sort of meaning of the minds, some sort of deal that both sides can live with. There was another interesting thing here on part of the topic we were gonna originally cover in the Gulf section of the show today, which is that the UAE has been asking effectively for a bailout because they are in trouble. They were being hit. They have their brand as this sort of, like, luxury resort country is being completely undermined. They understand they've got an issue. And so they asked for some sort of currency swap line or they asked if that was a possibility. They haven't directly said, we need this now, but they've said, hey, you know, in the future, if we need it. Is this a possibility? Trump was asked by Joe Kernan, is there some type of currency swap possible with UAE to help if they need it? And do you think there'd be backlash? Trump says it is. It's been a good country, a good ally of ours. It was shocking because we didn't think they'd get hit. I don't know why you didn't think that. I'm surprised because they are really rich. So in any case, he seems to be opening the possibility that there could be some sort of effectively Drac bailout, similar to what we did with Argentina for UAE because of the way our war has Screwed them. And if you look at the original report from the Wall Street Journal, the UAE came in pretty hard to the US and was like, look, you started this war and now we're having to live with the damage. So you need to help us out in this predicament work in a sense.

A (68:40)

I'm, you know, look, I, you know, no fan of the UAE or the Gulf. I am almost low key on their side because look, they have a ton of money invested in the United States. So if they declare force majeure, if they just stop paying any of it, we almost do need to bail them out if we want to profit.

E (69:00)

We did create this problem for them.

A (69:01)

We created the situation. Yeah, we destroyed the semblance of Dubai and the peace and, and the entire reason that the global super elite even all wanna live there. We have screwed up all of their oil shipments. Their banks are the way station for the global illicit capital which the entire world, which is very advantageous to us as to everybody else. And then they funnel many of their ill gotten gains back into our economy. Not saying it's a good system, but some of us do benefit from it. And so what do we do? I mean it's one of those. And they've committed hundreds of billions of dollars in US defense investments. They don't have a cards to play, but they have the economic one. Maybe they do need to be bailed out. And that's the problem. I think that they face the entire Gulf faces really already. You know, you can see a few of these things. Let's put Kuwait up there on the screen. This One is a C3. This is Kuwait declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products from the Straits of Hormuz and say they're unable to meet a customer's obligations. They can't bring vessels into the Persian Gulf. Get familiar with that term because that's not just about oil, that's also about investments. Remember I think we put the biology Srinivasan take up here very early in the days of the war. And he's like, if you're in venture capital and you have any sort of golf investment, you better familiarize yourself with that word because it's very likely that you'll be hearing it at some time in the future. Also some follow on effects. Can't say I'm very upset about this.

E (70:24)

This is my favorite C4.

A (70:25)

Yeah, let's put it up here. Luxury brands bet on the Middle East. War has damaged their plans. High end brands such as Louis Vuitton and Hermes are looking to other regions assail in the Persian Gulf nations plummet. I mean, will anybody think of Zegna clothing and Hermes and Louis Vuitton? I mean, it's a tragedy, it's a real tragedy that Bernard Arnault and his LVMH group is going to take such a horrible hit. I mean, I would say personally this would be a net benefit because golf taste has destroyed the entire luxury market now for like 25 years. Again, just my opinion, the gaudiness, the Trump style, the Saudi style, completely. When I lived in the Gulf, I remember these women be walking around in full niqab. So niqab is when I think niqab is everything with the eyes, right? And so they're full niqab and they still have diamonds crusted all around the eyes, like right here. And then the gold Cartier love bracelets when the sleeve would just so happen to roll up, you're like, oh, oh, there it is. And there these women are in full burqa, going to Dior stores in Prada for what you know, you're wearing underneath the burqa. But that's what it's all about. That's the culture over there. It's unbelievable. So, yeah, I don't know. You know, for me it's a real tragedy. The Louis Vuitton and Hermes and all of these.

E (71:48)

Well, but it speaks to a real issue for them. No, no, it's a huge one because again, this is. Their whole thing is attracting rich expats from the globe. The global elite. The whole thing is being the playground of the global elite. And so these luxury brands are already saying, you know, this guy who's the executive chairman of Zegna, which I've never even heard of before, but it's apparently a high end men's clothing store. Anyway, he says that merchandise has to go somewhere else. They're hoping, they're not hoping that the expats are going to come back to Bahrain and UAE and you know, and Dubai and Abu Dhabi. They're hoping that they're going to keep spending their money just in other cities for global elite. So they're moving their merchandise out of the region because they know that it's gonna be a long time, if ever, that Dubai and Abu Dhabi in particular re establish themselves as these sort of safe havens which are exempt from the tensions of the region. So, you know, this is a reality that is already there for uaw. So yeah, they're looking at this whole thing and they're like, y' all dragged us into this. You better help us out of it. And we also know there were a lot of complaints. There were like complaints from the Saudis that they didn't feel they were being protected in the way that Israel was being protected, which is fair. Yeah. And so, and you know, all of our bases in the region were hit. There was civilian infrastructure in these countries that was hit. So in any case, I guess Trump is open to giving UAE their lifeline. And, you know, I guess they've, they decided that if they signaled they were going to be the closest ally and they did the thing, you know, they took the UN resolution, they said that they would enter directly as combatants. There's some indications they have entered directly as combatants that Trump would repay their, you know, their allyship there. And I guess this is an indication that perhaps he will.

A (73:38)

Yeah, I mean, look, like I said, I'm loathe to advocate for a bailout, but in many ways I'm like, we did screw you. We really did screw them up. Also. Just so funny down here. Foot traffic to Brunello. Cucinelli stores known for their cashmere. Net worth has fallen 50% in the middle East. I'm like, oh, the tears. This is a place you're probably not familiar. This is where like Jeff Bezos will buy a T shirt for like $3,000 or, you know, these are the type of people, I think they have a hat. One of their most famous hats is like 600 bucks. It's literally a baseball hat made out of K cashmere. That's the type of brand that we're talking about. So, yeah, all right, maybe, you know, even if you have the money, this.

E (74:16)

What are you doing? Truly disgusting.

A (74:19)

You know, I love clothing. For that type of money, you could go out to the finest, like bespoke makers in the world and get something 10 times better. But for them, that's not what it's about. It's just about flexing in St. Barth or any of these other places to Lauren Sanchez's friends. So, yeah, maybe it's good thing. Maybe it's a good thing.

I (74:54)

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B (76:00)

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E (77:03)

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F (77:05)

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