Sagar Enjeti (2:05)

We're fermenting a coup today.

Craig Melvin (2:06)

Yeah, we're fermenting a coup here at Breaking Points. Emily is in for Crystal, who will be back tomorrow and on Thursday, so don't worry about that. But Emily, the people have cried out for an Emily and Saga show for a while. According to our records, it has been two years since the last Emily and Sagar show.

Sagar Enjeti (2:24)

What A gift to everyone in the audience.

Craig Melvin (2:26)

Yeah. So the. It is. It is a great gift that we do so people can't accuse us here of not giving in to our audience demands. Right. So the people demanded it, and the people are getting it by plebiscite. So there you go.

Sagar Enjeti (2:40)

I think the last time we did, by the way, there was a brick wall behind us.

Craig Melvin (2:43)

Yes, there was. Yeah, that's right. That was before the news set and everything. So. Yeah, look, you can see how far we've come.

Sagar Enjeti (2:48)

That's right.

Craig Melvin (2:48)

All right. What the hell are we covering today? This is the toughest part of the job, setting all this up. Tariffs. All right. Tariffs. We're gonna talk about tariffs. The a worst April for the Dow Jones since the Great Depression. Not exactly a great head there for the administration. We're going to talk about some of the movements in the stock market. Big dump yesterday of major stock indices, as well as some major movements by China warning other countries not to team up with the United States. We're going to continue the coverage of the Pete Hegseth saga. There is just insanity going on. Pete Hegseth knifing his own staff in the back who recently were fired from the Pentagon. We also have one of those former staffers, Dan Caldwell, speaking out on the Tucker Carlson show, really giving us some insight into the knife fights that are happening in the administration over war with Iran. We're gonna talk about Kirsty Noem. She apparently got her purse stolen despite having been surrounded by Secret Service agents. She had $3,000 in cash on her. Just some very weird stuff that's going on. And obviously also an insight into one of the top law enforcement officers in the United States. This is a topic I selected specifically because Emily is here with me. We're gonna talk about efforts to boost birth rates here in the United States focused specifically on motherhood. Tax breaks for new moms, medals for mothers that have more than several children. So we're gonna break some of that down. We're gonna talk about that fight with Harvard between the Trump administration and Harvard, a major escalating legal battle between the two. It stems from that, quote, antisemitism fight. But it's actually become much bigger than that. And then we're very excited to be joined by fire, the president of fire, who is going to break down some of the free speech attacks by the Trump administration. Fire Emily. Probably the single best organization that's been consistent and principled on these matters over the years, really. We always look to them for guidance. They've spoken up on very unpopular issues, popular issues. They don't care literally at all. So we're excited to speak with them. And then also, I guess people are also getting their wish here. An AMA with Emily and I for our premium subscribers. So don't forget, you can support us at break. You can participate in these live AMAs and more and also see Emily every Friday on the Emily show or on the Friday show. Sorry, I guess we call it.

Sagar Enjeti (5:06)

We should call it.

Craig Melvin (5:07)

Should we call it the Emily Show? Yeah. I like it. I like it. All right, don't forget, if you can't support us right now and all of the new expansions that we're doing here, it's totally fine. Just make sure that you like and subscribe to this video. And if you're listening to us on a podcast, just go ahead, give us a five star review and send, send the episode to a friend. That is the single best thing that you can do for us. You can even pick your favorite episode, Emily. You know what's fascinating in our podcast downloads is that there are hundreds of thousands of people who listen to these, like, at the end of the week. Like, they don't listen to them daily.

Sagar Enjeti (5:41)

That's really interesting.

Craig Melvin (5:41)

We have a huge spike in Fridays and Saturdays. I'll be honest, I don't get it. But I guess it kind of makes sense, like catching up on the news.

Sagar Enjeti (5:49)

In any particular episode. Like, is it Monday?

Craig Melvin (5:51)

No. Yeah, like the Monday episode will boom on like a Friday. I'm like, I just, I don't get it. YouTube is much more like regular, you know, like after 48 hours or so. Like, most of the people who watch something are going to watch it. There are a few evergreen topics. But yeah, these podcast listeners, man, I've been trying to understand these people for four years. I'll never get it. But it's okay.

Sagar Enjeti (6:10)

We love it.

Craig Melvin (6:11)

Yeah, we love you.

Sagar Enjeti (6:11)

Anyway, so if you're listening to this.

Craig Melvin (6:13)

Yeah. Four days from now. If you're listening to this four or five days from now, go ahead and follow your instructions. All right. All right, let's get to the tariffs. So massive sell off in the stock market yesterday. Not one particular thing that seems to have set things off, but, but just still real signs of danger. Here's CNBC right around the close. Let's take a listen.

Sagar Enjeti (6:33)

Look at the markets, which are very unwelcome on this Monday afternoon. The dow is down 1270 points right now. So we're at session lows. And if we close here, it will.

Craig Melvin (6:41)

Be the 11th,000 point drop in the.

Sagar Enjeti (6:43)

Dow's history and it's the fourth this month. Now the S and P broad market.

Savannah Guthrie (6:47)

Here'S what you need to know.

Sagar Enjeti (6:48)

Down 3% and down 16% from the 52 week high. We're about 200 points above the intraday low of 4910 on April 8th. Keep these in mind as people look for a retest. And is that an entry point? The Nasdaq is the worst of the major averages, led lower by Nvidia and Tesla. Tesla down 7% ahead of its earnings tomorrow. And of course check the yield on the 10 year because unlike many most previous stock sell offs where you at least get some cushion here. Nope, not getting it today for 40 this time Treasuries are being sold as investors sell stocks as well. Dollars down, yields are higher.

Craig Melvin (7:23)

Yeah. And actually the yield has spiked even more since then. We're going to get to that in a little bit. But let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. The Dow is currently headed for the worst April since 1932 as investors are sending no confidence signals, Quote, few think the administration's negotiation with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain. And Emily, that really seems to be a big thing that was dawned on the market yesterday and a lot of these investors is the fact that the Japanese talks went so badly and that the the Japanese prime minister and their team left Washington with no deal. And then honestly the worst signal was not just them leaving, it was the Japanese prime minister going to parliament and declaring we will not concede to all of the demands of the United States. They are actively countersignaling the Trump administration at home and by the way, to great popularity. Actually the Japanese people not very happy about the way that they have been treated throughout this process. There's been ongoing talks there with China and with South Korea. Something, you know, Trump has historically has made three countries which absolutely hate each other's guts to at least move in some solid direction as a result of the tariffs. And so I think as this begins to dawn on the investors and on the market, they're seeing that Japan, which was supposed to be the check mark, like that was supposed to be the easiest one to be done. And they're like holy cr. We have 70 more of these trade deals that are supposed to happen in 90 days. They're like this is just not gonna happen. Like this is not reality. And then no signal yet from the Trump administration around any sort of cave. The more that starts to set in, I mean you Know, everybody celebrated that stock market bump after the 90 day pause. We are just a few, maybe 2, 3% or something like that away from being right back to where we started Even before the 90 day pause where they initially wanted the bonds. Obviously we'll get to in a little bit. But this is, this is not a good sign.

Sagar Enjeti (9:17)

Yeah, I mean, this is maybe the worst sign because I would say it's the worst. There's a counterfactual here where Trump actually is signing an all of these really good deals. And that sounds a little bit ridiculous, but it's possible, right, that he could be coming away from this with actually some significant progress in these negotiations with Japan, with places like Vietnam. It's entirely within the realm of possibility. But it's also the predicate for his entire strategy. His strategy hinges on being able to seal these deals, to seal them quickly and to get good ones. And again, I think it's, you know, more likely than not. It's always been more likely than not. That wouldn't happen. But it was always a possibility.

Craig Melvin (10:00)

Look, it was theory.

Sagar Enjeti (10:00)

It was always a possibility.

Craig Melvin (10:02)

What's interesting too is Charles Gasparino over at Fox Business just said Today, quote, about 10 days ago, Scott Bessant was telling Wall street executives that he was making progress cutting trade deals with India, Japan, South Korea and Australia, some of the largest trading partners, quote, then nothing happened and the market tank. So there's been a combination of a couple of factors. It's not only the lack of trade deals. There's also been Trump's escalating attacks on the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. And look, I mean, I don't think Trump is empirically incorrect that we do need a rate cut, but it's really more about the signal that he himself would take like some of unitary executive power over the central bank, which would mean that there would be an escalating fight and most importantly, uncertainty. So it's not the fact that investors don't want a rate cut. They would be absolutely happy to do so. As we've already seen, the European Central bank has cut rates. There's been numerous other countries that have done so as well. The dollar right now, by the way, is a disaster. The dollar is down to, I believe, almost every currency except for the Turkish lira, all time highs, or not all time highs, but near all time highs with the euro, the Japanese yen and a few other currencies which traditionally actually were quite down. This is very difficult because even without tariffs, that means that these foreign goods are gonna be more expensive. For United States investors and importers that are able to afford this, that is not to even mention the other stuff that's happening right now in the markets. Let's put a 2 please up on the screen because this really actually underscores a lot of what I'm talking about here about the dollar weakness. Quote, Trump trade offensive threatens America's financial primacy and the rising volatility in the dollar weakness is raising fears for a financial realignment away from US shores. And so this is the big fear right now, the move away from the United States dollar as a reserve currency. Traditionally, as they were talking about on cnbc, you see bond yields start to go down, which obviously has major pressure in terms of interest rates, the Federal Reserve, but we don't see that. And so really what we're seeing is both a fleeing from US markets and from the US dollar. And so when you have massive uncertainty on those two things, as well as this massive pressure in the bond markets, you basically have financial uncertainty and pressure at all levels. At the consumer level, at the equities level, at the bond level, and now at a currency level. In fact, I was just reading today that one of the largest foreign exchange of traders like of currencies has been margin called and has to basically halt like all trading. And so there's, you know, I mean look, I'm not shedding tears here for forex traders who, oh boo hoo. But it's a signal obviously that the uncertainty and basically shock to the overall dollar is causing fundamental questions to be asked across the world. And I think it always just returns to why. It's like if that's a result of a war, if it's as a result of outside pressure, if that's a result of a hyper intentional policy for de dollarization across the world to make US goods more competitive for genuinely good trade deals, a lot of people will be fine with that. But the point is that within this vacuum of chaos where there seems to be no policy agenda, everything is basically at the whims of whether Peter Navarro is on the right building in the White House complex or not. That's when everybody is just like, yeah, I'm done. You know, I'm either hoarding cash if you're lucky enough to have some taking out debt, or if you're a company, I'm buying nothing for the next 90 days. And you know, the freight drop that's coming from China, it just still has not set in for people because you're not ready for like the price increase at Costco. You're not ready to go there and to see stuff that you normally would that's just not on the shelf. It takes a couple of months to see that happen. I mean, don't forget the peak of inflation in the COVID era was 2022, even though 2021 was marked by all of those increases. It was really after the invasion of Russia where we saw massive shock to the financial system, massive shock to the energy market, and basically a year of unchecked inflation that the government allowed to basically just happen. Where all of those things culminated, where people were like, I am done with Joe Biden and I'm really done with the overall U.S. economy. And they really never forgave him for that. And I think that they're really on track.

Sagar Enjeti (14:25)

You know this as well as I do. But a lot of people in the White House right now specifically are looking back to 1981 and they say Ronald Reagan weathered a temporary recession. The short term pain paid off for him. He was able to muster the. He was able to mobilize voters and have a very successful return to the presidency. This is very different from that in a couple of different ways. But just one important way that you alluded to. It's not about price. This is not just about price increases. This is about the availability of goods. This is about scarcity. This is about things changing. This is about the shelves changing, not just the prices going up. And I think to your point, not only is that not sunk in for consumers, I don't think that that has sunk in for the administration. And the uncertainty as leverage was always, again, if this deal were to. If this entire strategy were to play out successfully, that had to be very temporary.

Savannah Guthrie (15:20)

Yeah.

Sagar Enjeti (15:20)

And because it was good leverage.

Craig Melvin (15:21)

Yeah. But let's talk about the 1981 recession, because that's a very important point. But why did Reagan get forgiven for the 1981 recession? Because it was a hangover of Volcker monetary policy. And thus people forgave Reagan. Cause they didn't think it was his fault. And also, Reagan was a really good politician at the height of his. Literally probably at the height of his like rhetorical powers in 1981, where he's like, oh, you know, the happy optimism, the jelly beans and all that. And he's like, look, he's like, we're gonna get through this together. He was an excellent communicator and he was actually able to use that recession to eventually push a lot of major legislation. Now we can debate the effects and all of that, but that was a hyper Competent, in my opinion, team, regardless of whether you think that what they did was good or not. But most importantly, they were able to blame Carter and Volker for much of what transpired from 81 and in 82. The Trump administration does not have that luxury already. America is like Biden who? They're like, who is that? I don't know who you're talking about.

Sagar Enjeti (16:21)

They're also asking the public to significantly renegotiate its relationship with consumer goods, period.

Craig Melvin (16:27)

It's not just prices beyond consumer goods. I would say they're asking them to renegotiate, like, the very terms of which they understood their economic life. And, like, that is. Again, you know, you don't. They're America. If we look back, like, they're really only going to tolerate that in a time of war, and even then, people are gonna get pissed, which is also.

Sagar Enjeti (16:46)

Where Reagan was successful.

Craig Melvin (16:47)

Yeah, that's true.

Sagar Enjeti (16:48)

Because of the Cold War.

Craig Melvin (16:48)

Because we had the Cold War. Yeah, very good point. I was reading. I think there was a. In During World War II, there was, like, a national speed limit of, like, 35 miles per hour to conserve.

Sagar Enjeti (16:57)

People hate it.

Craig Melvin (16:58)

Hated it. But they were able to tolerate it because they're like, okay, you know, we're in the middle of a war, but basically, like, the moment that I think the Japanese surrendered, they're like, yeah, we're driving 50 miles an hour now. Okay. Like, the shit's over. Like, where's my goods? I need some. I need some serious return for four years of lack of food and of driving super slow, even though we didn't even have any highways or anything back in that time. So, you know, America's always kind of been that way.

Sagar Enjeti (17:22)

You're full of fun facts.

Craig Melvin (17:24)

Yeah, it's always fun times, you know, over here.

Savannah Guthrie (17:26)

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Craig Melvin (17:37)

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Craig Melvin (18:07)

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Savannah Guthrie (18:09)

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Craig Melvin (18:13)

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Savannah Guthrie (18:21)

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Craig Melvin (19:29)

All right, let's go to the next one, shall we? This is about the bond market. So to resurrect the Joe Weisenthal term, the bond market is the real deep state. A three please. And what you're watching there is that the long term bond yields are absolutely blowing out right now. And so look, obviously these things are variable, but as of this morning, we saw a 4.9 yield on bonds, which is like, like on the 30 year bond at 4.9. Again, let's remember why this is important, which is that this means that debt servicing, interest rates and all of that are going to be more expensive for the government. It also means that there is a either sell off or lack of demand for the United States dollar and for our bond. The very credibility of, of the United States financial system and of the United States, like I don't even really know how to describe it because it is so consequential. Remember, it's the bond market that took down Liz Truss as the Prime Minister. But it's important just to remember that when you see that happening, it is a direct contradiction of the stated goal of the Trump administration because one of the ways that Secretary Bessen was giving people a lot of cope is he was like yeah, the equities markets, they go up, they go down, et cetera if we're able to do that. Because traditionally that's usually what happens during a downturn. Well that will be overall more beneficial to U.S. consumers, to our financial system for the U.S. treasury. But instead they've had the exact opposite which definitely indicates foreign basically fleeing of the dollar and of lack of confidence in overall US markets. So that's what a lot of us.

Sagar Enjeti (21:10)

Are looking at again uncertainty and I think fluctuations we see yesterday were because of the. I mean I would argue that a lot of it was a reaction to the tripling down of the attacks on Powell.

Craig Melvin (21:22)

Just because it creates uncertainty of course. I mean and that's. I was talking with some people yesterday go why? Yes, because you know we saw like a 3 something percent drop in the S&P 500 and there was, I mean by the way that's the funny thing somebody said they were like we're so desensitized that a single 3% drop is like eh, whatever. I'm like no, that's actually a lot. If you look over the, you know, if you look over the traditional time horizon like this amount of complete like up and down, you know, in a single day without any market react, without like, like an announcement of bad earnings or a major policy announcement and everybody's kind of just collectively like this doesn't seem to be going that well. That's actually a really bad sign because it means that the slide can just continue. Keep in mind we're recording this earlier in the morning, so let me take a look at the futures. Yeah, S and P is up by like 0.7%. Great. It was like you know, still down obviously from where we were whenever we began, even on Monday. And actually you know, Joe Weisenthal again flagged something which I thought was absolutely harrowing for the private markets. Let's go ahead and put a four up there on the screen. He says quote, Blackstone is now down 40% from its November highs and is now right back at its post Liberation day lows. Remember this is probably the best run manager of private assets in the world. So just consider how your run of the mill private equity or VC shop is looking right now. You know why I found that so important is I'll never forget. So the very first person I ever spoke to who told me that there was going to be major economic problems was actually David Sachs. And it was an interview, I think I did it with him. Back in early 2022, before even the invasion of Ukraine. And I remember him telling me, he goes, you know, VC valuations are down massively. And because this is the bleeding edge of the financial system, when we're watching, like, lack of liquidity and overall, just like, you know, lack of investment and VC valuations and all this stuff start to go down, that's usually an indication where the private markets are for where the public markets will head soon. And I would say maybe within three or four months. Everything that he said ended up correct. And I was like, wow. So that gave me a lot of respect for some of the insight of where these private market entities can tell us about not only valuations, but also of what future behavior will look like. So, you know, if you're Blackstone, you're down 40%, you have to start selling stuff like, soon. You know, you're getting pretty close where if you're gonna half your value from November, like, you're gonna have some serious pressure from your investors and these people, unfortunately, again, I don't want it to be this way. They control a lot of stuff. And so if they offload, you know, single family houses, that could have a major impact if they offload, you know, I mean, they control so many major companies or stakes in companies or. And this is the worst possible outcome. What do these private equity goons always do whenever there is a downturn? They fire people.

Sagar Enjeti (24:14)

Cocaine?

Craig Melvin (24:15)

Yeah, well, yeah, that too, actually. No, they're not doing cocaine. Cause they can't afford it anymore. That's right. No. So what's legal cocaine now these days? I don't know. Celsius. They're drinking tons of Celsius. But the problem that we see for them is when they have to offload and then they come in and they just gut these companies. And again, you see tiny little signs of this Southwest getting rid of. Of seating, right. Jacking up its rates, trying to add first class. You see, already, you know, the airlines are always a classic example of recession indicators. We're going to see many other businesses, which Blackstone, again, unfortunately does control, along with a lot of kkr, all of these major shops, they run massive businesses that employ millions of people across America, or they own stakes in them. And as investors, they're going to put pressure on them to probably reduce headcount so that they increase their overall share price. So I actually thought that that was one of the more important ones. And also, you know, the indication there on venture capital and on private equity like that, when that stuff starts to dry up again, we saw major problems in our markets in 2022 and in 2023.

Sagar Enjeti (25:22)

Well, I just want to say, before we move on, that underscores. I mean, that's why I think, again, this question of certainty and strategy. And you've been making this point all along, but like, there was to your point about David Sacks having these insights literally years ago, there's a pretty optimistic. I think I was more optimistic than you when Lib was being teased and rolled out, because this is actually based on some, like, very accurate and unpopular, I think, understandings of the United States economy.

Craig Melvin (25:51)

Sure.

Sagar Enjeti (25:52)

And so there was a way that. With a strategy, with coherence and with a sense of purpose and certainty, everyone looks like they're walking in step. This would have actually done something pretty interesting. There definitely would have always been short term.

Craig Melvin (26:04)

Well, let me clarify. I was never not optimistic. I was. I had a baseline level of optimism until that chart came out. Yeah. And when I saw that chart, I was like, that's it. And I knew I'll never. I will never forget it. And I was like, holy shit. Looking at that, seeing what the 50%, whatever tariff on Vietnam, I was like, yeah, this is over. And I mean. And that's. And then learning about.

Sagar Enjeti (26:28)

They still could have recovered from that. Right? Like, they. I think they could have. They could have easily come out the next day and said, we talked to Vietnam overnight and came. But they.

Craig Melvin (26:37)

I think for me, it was that, you know, within hours, we learned the way that the trade. That the actual calculation happened. And then when you learned that that level of care went into the stewardship of the global economy, that's when I was like, sell. You know, it's like the biggest sell signal I've ever seen. I was like, nothing that these people do, really. They may stumble into something good, but intentionality or planning behind it. No, no, no, no. And I think that's really. I mean, that's why the market's tanked as well. You know, a 10% universal tariff. Again, I mean, I don't think it's a terrible policy. We could talk about it all day long. It's one of those where, if it had happened, there definitely would have been obviously a market correction of some kind. But I genuinely don't believe it would have been similar to today, where we have wild swings of up and down. And I can tell you this, 10% is still. Even if you think that that's crazy, that 10% is still much more certain than the bullshit that we're dealing with right now.

Sagar Enjeti (27:31)

Exactly.

Craig Melvin (27:32)

Yeah. And that's the problem where they face. We're watching this all play out. And I mean, really, the signal to me, it's not just about China, which we're about to talk about a lot, and the level of care that they're able to put into the stewardship of their economy. It's watching the other countries have to deal with this. The US Allies, the people that we genuinely do need, like the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Vietnamese, and to watch Xi Jinping get heralded on the streets of Vietnam. You know, again, a country which is basically in a conflict with China over the South China Sea, which doesn't necessarily, like, you know, they have complicated relations with them and complicated relations with us, but broadly a population of people which love the United States even though we destroyed their entire country. It's kind of amazing, actually. And then to see them immediately Ho Xi and Xi going to Vietnam and then giving a speech about aligning with China, and then watching same in Singapore and many of these other countries, which. These are very important to the future of the globe because 50% of global GDP will be there just in five years. And they feel deeply abandoned. I mean, from the Japanese. All the stories coming from the Japanese are insane. They show up here in Washington in good faith and they're like, so, what do you want? And they're like, well, what are you offering? They're like, but we literally don't know what. What you want. And not just even culturally for them, they're like, this is a clown show in Japan, in their business culture and all that, when we just think about respect and certainty and consensus and who to trust, they have very well and clear defined avenues through which decisions are made. They, along with us, have no idea if they can even trust Secretary Best or if they can trust this or the US Trade Representative. And then they watch the US Trade Representative learn about the 90 day pause when he's giving a testimony before Congress. So if that guy's sitting across from me, I go, you don't know anything. I'm not talking to you. I just wanna talk to Trump. And then Trump makes him wear a MAGA hat that he signs in the Oval Office and put it on for a photo opportunity. I don't know. I feel for them. I really do. And it's not a joke. Right. Because it's the future of their economy. It's the future of our economy.

Sagar Enjeti (29:48)

Well, I was gonna say that changes their own political calculations, which is already happening. Yeah. There's a decent argument being made by Eric Kaufman, Matt Continenty and others that what's happening is actually the undermining of global populism which Donald Trump has tried to fuel, has actually like sought to build up. And because people are now responsive to their own economic needs at home. Of course, Canada is a really good example of this. With Polyev, you have to come out swinging against Trump. And so it completely changes the incentive structure.

Craig Melvin (30:15)

That's a great point. I hadn't thought about that. But it's exactly right where, you know, you're actually empowering more establishment forces in the European Union, in Japan, in. I mean, even Javier Milei is countersignaling Trump on the tariffs. Like, you know, you've lost basically when you've lost Milei. Right? No, I mean, this guy is like what probably the most MAGA that there is in Latin America. All right, last part here. This is just, this is too much. At the very same time, this is all happening for us. Secretary Bessant, for some reason that will remain completely unknown to me, decided to put out a lecture on his Twitter account of financial literacy and savings for Americans. Let's take a listen. Everyone should care about financial literacy. Whether you are a student with a summer job or a part time job during school, whether you're in college, whether you're starting your career or whether you are at the end of your career. Making good financial choices creates economic security. And look, it's fun. You learn about the markets, you learn how to properly allocate resources, and there's.

Krystal Ball (31:28)

A big payoff over the long term.

Craig Melvin (31:31)

For something you can do early in your career. I couldn't believe that, you know, the tone deafness of this near billionaire secretary of the treasury at a time of financial stress, trying to tell people about savings and financial literacy. It's like, why don't we leave that to Dave Ramsey, okay? It's like, maybe that's your real beef.

Sagar Enjeti (31:50)

With it, is that they should have just had Dave Ramsey.

Craig Melvin (31:52)

Yeah, they should have just had Dave come in and get. Listen, at least guy's consistent. He's staying at all the time.

Sagar Enjeti (31:57)

Oh, Dave Ramsey's the best.

Craig Melvin (31:58)

Yeah, I mean, look, you know, Dave is the goat, as longtime watchers know, at least from my perspective. But I just thought it was unbelievable, like to put that out. And it's just this lecturing and this hectoring about savings. It's like, listen, he's not wrong about the benefit of saving or learning financial literacy or any of that, and I totally support it. But now is not the time to be putting out these types of public messages, basically trying to signal like, everything is for you. You need to learn public markets. Meanwhile, I'm one of the most powerful, you know, individuals in all of American finance, and I'm like screwing with the bond markets and all the nuking your 401k or your 529 plan.

Sagar Enjeti (32:40)

That's a good point. Sebastian's like, I can nuke your 401k with a single word.

Craig Melvin (32:45)

Yes.

Sagar Enjeti (32:45)

Meanwhile, you better get your financial literacy in shape, which is because, like, it's not wrong.

Craig Melvin (32:53)

He is right.

Sagar Enjeti (32:53)

Because our market is so convoluted and ridiculous built on this house of cards, then yes, you should absolutely be very. You should basically go full Ted Kaczynski and build a cabin in the woods because they can tank whatever you save for decades with a word.

Craig Melvin (33:10)

Bingo.

Sagar Enjeti (33:11)

But rather than fixing that structure, you should just board gold.

Craig Melvin (33:16)

In the words of Dave, debt is dumb and cash is king.

Savannah Guthrie (33:19)

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Craig Melvin (33:29)

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Craig Melvin (34:00)

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Savannah Guthrie (34:01)

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Craig Melvin (34:05)

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Savannah Guthrie (34:14)

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Craig Melvin (34:20)

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Sagar Enjeti (34:32)

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Sagar Enjeti (38:28)

Well, our strategy was based on this idea that we had so much leverage that people would just come to us. And we saw that explicitly expressed by members of the Trump administration. They articulated that that was basically their belief, people will come to us because we have so much leverage. Then, like Japan, they can tell us what they're thinking and we'll let them know if it's up or down, good or bad, like the gladiator thumb move. But. But China, on the other hand, I think, has handled this, and it pains me to say, with cohesion and strategy. And that's sort of the mirror image of the same noise, rather than them saying, because we have so much leverage, we're going to let the chips fall where they may, which is basically our strategy. And again, it's true, we do have a lot of leverage. And the uncertainty, to some extent at first at least, was, I think, a sort of clever use of the leverage. But China approached it with the exact opposite strategy, which is we're going to be extremely strategic and extremely cohesive in our approach to these different countries. And what they've seen, whether it's with Greenland, the eu, or your point about Asia, it's just obviously working.

Craig Melvin (39:35)

And, you know, even watching some of the things that they're doing right now. So, for example, I previously talked about the Joe Weisenthal piece on private equity. Well, let's go ahead and put a seven, please, up on the screen. Don't forget that the Chinese are major investors in US Markets now. Do I think that that should have been the case? No, but, you know, it is the case.

Sagar Enjeti (39:52)

They have like 20% our debt.

Craig Melvin (39:54)

Yeah. And so quote, China is now pulling back from US private equity investments. Industry executives report a change of approach as Beijing is bearing the brunt of Trump's tariffs. So Chinese state backed funds are quote cutting off all new investment in US private equity. And the latest salvo against Trump, state backed funds have been pulling back from investing in US private headquartered private capital firms in recent weeks. The moves come for pressure from the Chinese government. Some of the Chinese funds are also seeking to be excluded from private equity investments in any U S based company. Trump has imposed tariffs obviously of 145% on Chinese exports. Multiple buyout executives said that Chinese investors have changed their approach since the very beginning of the trade war and they will make no new commitments to US firms. China's investment corporation which is among the state backed firms that is pulling back said that they were ceasing all investment. Quote other Chinese funds have retreated. And this is the Chinese sovereign wealth fund, don't forget, which has massive shares of Blackstone, of TPG and of Carlyle Group which means that look, this is where the difficulty of stating this is that on the one hand, yeah, it's good, we don't really want these people to be investing in all of our private companies. Why should they have so much leverage, private equity firms and all these, clearly they've been a tool of the Chinese ministry and all of them for years. But if there's no commiserate, if there's no change from the US in terms of policy to make sure that all that capital that no longer coming to our markets doesn't cause immense pain, then what do you think that the net effect of all of this is going to be?

Sagar Enjeti (41:34)

Right. And this is again like what we were talking about earlier with the David Sachs observation back in 2022 when you interviewed him. I mean this entire strategy is based on I think really accurate and again unpopular understandings of the United States economy. The struct flaws in the US economy. And part of that is because so much of Wall street was beholden to China and intentionally set themselves up that way and the government sort of went along with it. Like American elites set the country up on this path. So it was always going to be painful to disentangle it. And so it's sort of for the average American a damned if you do, damned if you don't. Right? They're in this, they're caught in this catch 22 where a lead elites set up a system where at one point where it was going to come to a head with China. And because of that, you either have to stay completely entangled with China and completely beholden to China or disentangle a bit from China. It's pain for the consumer either way. And elites will probably still be fine. They'll probably lose a little bit, but they'll still be fine. Or maybe some of them will make lots of money, who knows? But it's such a shitty situation for the average consumer and it's not even being now that the disentangling is happening from people who are right that there needed to be a disentangling and the normal person's just getting completely screwed.

Craig Melvin (42:51)

Yeah. And you know, even right now, this just came across my radar. Maybe actually we can put it in post. I'll just go ahead and read from some of it. But Cambodia is, you know, I wouldn't say it's like a vital US ally, but we actually do produce a decent amount of textiles in Cambodia, literally just now. I mean, across the wire, Trump's tariffs quote, risk pushing Cambodia further into China's embrace. Quote, a massive canal highlights Beijing's now deep investment in Cambodia, just as the US is pulling back. So at the same time that Cambodia is getting hit with tariffs. And by the way, again, Vietnam and Cambodia were the destination for many textile manufacturers who were told in 2018 to get out of China. Did the Chinese take advantage of this and use it as trans shipping for control? Yes, let's be very clear. Yes, malfeasance, absolutely, across the board. But those governments are still a lot more friendly to the United States of America than the Chinese. And while they are, quote, controlled or they have some investment from China, it's not the same thing as literally being controlled by the Chinese directly like they were previously. Well, at the very same time that we're hitting them with tariffs, what are they doing? The Chinese are like, here, here's $1.2 billion, right. Here's a brand new canal that will go ahead and will build you. Basically trying to fill in the space from the United States. So anyway, just the last thing I.

Sagar Enjeti (44:09)

Want the OG canal builders too.

Craig Melvin (44:11)

Yeah, that's true. The OG can.

Sagar Enjeti (44:13)

Before we run Sagar, quick take on JD in India.

Craig Melvin (44:17)

Oh, I don't really have a take. I mean, to be honest. Look, first of all, he's the only. He's just the Vice President, which is like, I don't want to be too denigrated.

Sagar Enjeti (44:27)

No, no, you're right, it's true.

Craig Melvin (44:28)

He doesn't speak for the administration in the same way. And There was just mostly platitudes about working with India and the Prime Minister. Apparently they're going to talk about tariffs, but the Indians drive and this will not surprise anyone, a very hard bargain. This is one of the most protectionist global economy or large economies in the world. It's actually difficult for people to understand. They like take protection. They invented protectionism. They take it to a whole other level and for them they're not gonna be reducing a lot of non tariff barriers. The Indians are much smarter than us in some respects because what they do is they'll do things which they know will cost them foreign direct investment. They just don't care. They're like, fine, as long as we control and have a total say over our government and our technology. Literally what Trump wants, we'll just do it. Yeah, no, but guess what, they have a population which is okay with that and they at least have a financial system right now which because this is kind of baked in from the very beginning is not going to cause as much turmoil. I mean the TikTok thing in India is a perfect example. They were like, it's not a discussion, it's getting banned. Just ban it. And nobody really cared. They use alternatives now. I think YouTube short exports is big in the country. The idea that any Chinese like major global and manufacturer or something is going to have as much of a say over their affairs. They're like, it will never happen. Right. Well our own industrialists will run it. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of corruption and stuff like that behind it, but they have a much more autarkic model than basically any other major economy in the world. And they have the population to be able to sustain it. So look. Yeah. Is it nice? Sure, it's great. But JD and all that is over there. Do I think that Modi is going to immediately come out and say, sure, we're going to lower all these non terror. No, it will never happen. That's like foundational to their entire country and to their ethos economically. They will welcome some foreign investment, but like the Chinese, they demand control. Remember this is a country that banned bitcoin and crypto because they want control over their own financial system. Try doing business in India. It's not so easy if you're a US investor and that's why a lot of them don't do it. But like I said, the Indians just don't care. They have enough of a population.

Sagar Enjeti (46:34)

They're not as wealthy as consumer market.

Craig Melvin (46:35)

They're not as wealthy, but broadly you know, they see it as their fate to control and to really have a say over the industries in their country. I mean, you know, who can't help but respect that. So the speech, I was looking at it today. Yeah, it's good. But I mean, do I think it will usher in like a big change in US Relations? Like, not really. Really? That's are US and India relations? I don't think so. At least right now.

Savannah Guthrie (47:04)

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Craig Melvin (47:14)

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Craig Melvin (47:45)

This is today.

Savannah Guthrie (47:46)

And no matter what the day holds, we come to the Today show for all of it.

Craig Melvin (47:50)

When things are tough, we talk about it. When there's something to figure out, we dig into it. And when there's joy, we celebrate it.

Savannah Guthrie (47:59)

Because today is where it's all happening. We get the best start to every morning because we start it together.

Craig Melvin (48:05)

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Craig Melvin (49:04)

JLo glow at the same time, Emily, are now going to take a look at Pete Hegseth, where again, you know, there is a meltdown happening inside of the building. We've had a full scale purge of many of Hegseth's top advisors. There's now some floating out reports that maybe the White House is looking to replace some of the. So Pete Heg and some of the people around him, which would be an extraordinary move. Hegseth is trying to save his job. He's basically putting all the blame for the purge on the people who were fired themselves, even though many of them are literally some of the most loyal people who have been around him for years. So he was asked about it yesterday at the White House at the Easter Egg Roll. Let's take a listen.

Sagar Enjeti (49:43)

What you want to say, sir, about.

Craig Melvin (49:45)

The Signal Chat controversy.

Krystal Ball (49:47)

You know what a big surprise that a bunch of the few leakers get fired and suddenly a bunch of hit pieces come out from the same media that peddled the Russia hoax. Won't get back their Pulitzers. They got Pulitzers for a bunch of lies. Pulitzers for a bunch of lies. And on hoaxes time and time and time again. And as they peddle those lies, no one ever calls them on it. See, this is what the media does. They take anonymous sources from disgruntled former employees.

Craig Melvin (50:16)

Employees.

Krystal Ball (50:16)

And then they try to slash and burn people and ruin their reputations. Not going to work with me because we're changing the Defense Department. Putting the Pentagon back in the hands of war fighters. And anonymous smears from disgruntled former employees on old news. Doesn't matter. So I'm happy to be here at the Easter Egg Roll with my dad and my kids because, you know, this is what we're doing it for. These kids right here. This is why we're fighting the fake news media. This is why we're fighting slash and burn Democrats. This is why we're fighting hoaxers.

Craig Melvin (50:48)

Hoaxers. This group.

Krystal Ball (50:49)

No, no, this group right here. Full of hoaxers that pedal anonymous sources from leakers with axes to grind. And then you put it all together as if it's some news story. And what we know, we know exactly what it is. So I'm really proud of what we're doing for the president. Fighting hard across the board. And I'm gonna go roll some Easter eggs with my kids. Thank you very much.

Craig Melvin (51:15)

That's rough.

Sagar Enjeti (51:16)

That man needs to be on Broadway. The level of performance was he's like, I'm gonna go roll some Easter eggs.

Craig Melvin (51:23)

I don't Know, that sounds like an off Broadway performance to me. Yeah. Wow. There's a lot going on there. So, yeah, first of all, he's talking there as if it's a hoax. Whether he shared this information in a group chat with his wife or not. I mean, it's not a hoax. It's just a reality. It's a fact. It's something also that you previously had said. Oh, I never shared any classified information. Right. You know, long. Once upon a time, Signal gate was actually a story. But, you know, beyond that, what I find extraordinary about this is how he is just guns blazing against, again, top aides to him in the Defense Department department who were the most loyal to Pete Hegseth, who worked for him for probably for over a decade now at this point, previously, like, his actual close friends, and he fires these people on a dime. Now people are saying that, oh, then he must have caught them leaking or any of that. Look, there is no evidence to support that from the department itself. And also, even if you're gonna fire somebody based on a suspicion, you better have some damn good suspicion, or they could sue you for wrongful termination. All of the indication right now from the statement of those three, never polygraphed, never presented with any reason or story for why they were fired, unceremoniously marched out of the building. I think Hegseth is in some, like, bunker mentality. Like, clearly he believes that he's just, like, massively under attack, taking it out on some of the people most loyal to him. His own chief of staff, who I guess is leaving but is technically still gonna keep working for him, is a person he had never even met before, before all of this, who was, like, installed. Nobody even really knows by whom. Apparently, he's been causing a lot of drama in the office around all. But my point is, just like, this is not how the Defense Department can be run again. We're talking about the tariffs. How can the entire world look to the stewardship of the largest military force in the history of mankind and be like, yeah, this is exactly the way that this is all supposed to be happening right now? So, I mean, it's just chaos.

Sagar Enjeti (53:22)

Well, it's against the backdrop of tensions with Iran mounting. And so the question then becomes whether that had anything to do with Hegseth, his sort of professional divorce from people who have been loyal, who have been around him for years, going back to when he was at Concerned Vets. And that's, I think, where the fault line could be significant for Hegseth. I still don't really I mean, I could be proven wrong by Donald Trump at any moment of the day. But I still don't really think Hegseth is actually going to leave. I think, you know, Mike Waltz was able to keep his job after we heard report, after reporting that his departure was imminent, and that never happened. And he's less important to the administration than Pete Hegseth is, frankly. He's that head of the Pentagon, even though he is acting very heavily in the spokesperson role. He's the head of the Pentagon. So, yeah, I mean, at the same time, if his relationships with people who, for example, Donald Trump Jr. Is close with Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson just had Dan Caldwell. We're going to talk about this later in the show on his program for basically an emergency podcast to go over what the hell is happening at the Pentagon? And asked Dan, did you leak point blank? And Dan said no. So does that cause tensions that become a legitimate problem for Pete Hagseth as opposed to like a fake media story? That's why you saw him, I think, leaning very heavily into the idea that this was a fake media story when he was talking to reporters at the Easter Egg Roll yesterday. So the. That's messaging to Donald Trump, right? That's straight. Going straight to the president and signaling to him. Pete Hegseth knows this. He was on Fox and Friends Forever. He knows how to communicate through the TV with Donald Trump. And that's what he was trying to say, Mr. President, this is fake news.

Craig Melvin (55:03)

Right. And we actually got even more from Hegseth, where again, he's just going guns blazing against his own staff, people who worked for him, who are loyal to him, basically calling them liars. Let's take a listen. Over the last few days, your senior advisor, Dan Caldwell, Darren Selnick, Colin Carroll, who is chief of staff, deputy secretary of Defense. The other one, Darren, is now former.

Krystal Ball (55:25)

Deputy chief of staff, will let go.

Craig Melvin (55:27)

Did you let them go, Brian?

Krystal Ball (55:30)

It was a result of an investigation ongoing at the Pentagon where we identified there was sufficient evidence potentially, again, there's an investigation ongoing that will have to complete itself, sufficient evidence to believe that they or others near them were party to leaders. And then I have a statutory responsibility, Brian, if I believe that's the case, to ultimately ensure they no longer have access to that and that the investigation commences. There are a lot of ways to communicate in this building. I do it every day. I was just doing it this morning. Official channels by which we communicate classified information. If you want to do it and do it the right way, you should. If we Think you are leaking to the press. That's a very real problem. We take that very seriously at the Pentagon. I'm here to do one job, one job for the president and the American people. Secure the country. America first. Peace through strength. I don't have time for leakers. I don't have time for the hoax press that peddles old stories from disgruntled employees. We should be talking about the decimation of the Houthis, how we're pushing back the Chinese, how we have a new defense area at the southern border. Instead, disgruntled former employees are peddling things to try to save their ass.

Craig Melvin (56:37)

Did you.

Krystal Ball (56:37)

And ultimately, that's, that's. It's not gonna work.

Craig Melvin (56:40)

I mean, again, I mean, it's unhinged, to be honest, the way that he's reacting to this. But clearly there is some stuff going on inside of the White House right now. President Trump is standing behind Pete Hegseth, even though apparently he's not very happy about the latest signal story. Here was Caroline Levitt, the press secretary, talking about the secretary.

Sagar Enjeti (56:58)

The president stands strongly behind Secretary Hegseth, who is doing a phenomenal job leading the Pentagon. And this is what happens when the entire Pentagon is working against you and working against the monumental change that you are trying to implement. Secretary Hegseth was nominated for this position because he is standing up for the war fighter, the men and women in uniform who are putting their lives on the line to protect our country and our homeland. And unfortunately, there have been people at that building who don't like the change the secretary. Secretary is trying to bring. So they are leaking and they are lying to the mainstream media. We've seen this game played before. The secretary is doing a tremendous job and the president stands strongly behind him.

Craig Melvin (57:39)

President stands strongly behind him. And yet at the very same time. Let's go ahead and put B3, please, up on the screen. Emily, what do you make of this from npr? They're really the only story to report it so far. So, you know, you could take it only so far. The White House is looking to replace Pete Hex as the defense secretary. They don't have a ton of detail. It just says that there's something, the process of looking for a new leader at the Pentagon to replace him if they need to. The, quote, source said that Hegseth used signal messaging app on his personal smartphone. That's apparently what kind of set Trump off. But of course, Hegseth and the White House saying that that's completely fake news and that they're not trying to replace him. I'm just not so sure because when you see a complete collapse of your entire front office, you also find yourself mired in this controversy about not only sharing information, but I mean, just look at the way that he is speaking here publicly. This is not somebody who feels secure. Right. He feels as if you have to go on the offense, survivability, the people around him. Obviously he doesn't even have any real advisors or any of that point who he could probably trust. He seems to be a man on an island. And that's a good point. It's just a weird, weird thing to watch because not only is this the Secretary of Defense, but we're watching this at the height of tensions with Iran. And a lot of these people who were just fired are people who I think are being framed and who were trying at least to push the administration and develop options and policy which would not lead to a direct confrontation. And things genuinely seem to be sizzling to a boiling point where the pro Iran warlock again is more frothing at the mouth than I probably have ever seen them. I talked yesterday about Mark Levin demanding that Tulsi Gabbard Fix U.S. intelligence. Like that's crazy shit. Like that's. Again, that's Iraq level stuff going and doctoring intelligence reports to back up what you want so that you can bomb them. The purge here is happening. Ryan and I did our story yesterday about an Israeli Ministry of Defense official running the damn Israel and Iran portfolio on the nsc. I mean, it's just crazy. And Mike Waltz gets to stay, the guy who wants to push for Iran. So Hegseth, if he stays or goes. I don't even know what this guy believes, honestly, at this point, when you turn on the people around you. He was one of only three voices to speak up against a strike on Iran. Maybe that's one of three gone, right? Turns out pretty well for the Israelis.

Sagar Enjeti (60:06)

Well, and Dan and Tucker fleshed this out in his conversation with him. But Dan is deep skeptic of the Iran hawks. And so there actually is probably something legitimate to the. I guess the. There's probably something legitimate to the argument that Pete Hegseth is under enormous pressure and from people who want to go to a war with Iran who are upset that he brought people like Dan into the group. Remember, go back to Signalgate. Who did Pete Hegseth say should be the principal communicator brought in or the principal brought into the Signalgate chat he sent to Mike Waltz. The Signalgate chat was Created because Mike Waltz was asking all of these guys who should be the point person for your department. Pete Hegseth said Dan Caldwell and now Dan is out. So maybe there was some funny business going on. I mean I think there's a non implausible theory that Pete Hegseth was getting rid of these guys in order to protect them from an investigation that seems to have been blown up by Pete Heigseth's own account of what's happened. And Dan coming out point blank and saying no, I never leaked and going on Tucker Carlson show. That doesn't sound like a guy who's being protected by a friend. It looks like someone who genuinely feels burned by all of this. And the other thing, Donald Trump Jr. To go back to him, he posted. You remember when John Uliat got some headlines for being for resigning? Well, Don Jr. Remember he said this guy is not America first. I've been hearing for years that he works as a off to subvert my father's agenda. That ends today. He's officially exiled from our movement. Well, what does that say? He's not the only one in the Pentagon who is working to subvert, as Donald Trump puts it, my father's agenda, quote, my father's agenda. Those are other guys. He's one example. He's a high profile scalp. There are other guys still in the Pentagon who don't like the Dan Caldwell approach and don't want him to influence Pete Hegseth's decision making. And so you. Yes, they were probably doing from the moment the administration started. And Haggs has surrounded himself by guys from places like concern, Feds. They have probably been trying to catch those guys doing something wrong or set those guys up.

Craig Melvin (62:11)

Nobody knows.

Sagar Enjeti (62:11)

Yeah, for weeks they've probably been trying to do that. And so yes, I think it is likely that some of this stems from exactly that. But bad motivations don't mean that, that people are blameless, that people are pure and haven't done anything wrong. So those are not mutually exclusive.

Craig Melvin (62:29)

Yeah, that's true. Look, I mean is it theoretically possible you're leaking? Yeah, I guess. But I mean, you know, at the same time like half of you people are leakers anyway.

Sagar Enjeti (62:36)

Or that Hegseth did.

Craig Melvin (62:37)

So Pete Hegseth never leaked anything. Right.

Sagar Enjeti (62:38)

Or that Hegseth was, to your point, disloyal to his good friends. I mean the pressure is going to make him do things or could make him do things that are bad.

Craig Melvin (62:47)

Yeah, that's right.

Sagar Enjeti (62:47)

Whether or not he's inclined to do something actually anti Neocon and smart when it comes to these mounting tensions with the brain on. Donald Trump is resisting pressures from the neocons so far. We'll see how that goes. And his sending Steve Witkoff to continue these negotiations and the way that he's approaching it, which is freaking everybody out. I mean, it's freaking the Nikki Haley's of the world out beyond like your point, beyond where they thought they could go.

Craig Melvin (63:12)

Let's put B4 up there on the screen. So, you know, this is interesting. I rarely see this actually happen, but you have Representative Don Bacon here are actually calling for Hegseth to go. He said that he has concerns about him from the get go. Now tell me about Bacon. I don't know much about the guy, but I did. I didn't realize. I mean, this is a hask person. He's a first sitting GOP lawmaker to suggest that he should even fire Hegseth. Clearly he's got a little bit of an independent streak. Is this in his general mo? What's up with this?

Sagar Enjeti (63:39)

Yeah, I mean, so he's had a close. He's had close elections. He's been so. He. He won his last election 51% to 49% in Nebraska. Yeah. So he's like Omaha area. And it's basically like one of the. It's a tough race for him. And I'm sure there's also a lot of weapons, or I shouldn't say weapons manufacturing, but I'm sure there's a lot of Pentagon business that matters to Don Bacon in Nebraska. All right, well, lots of nuclear business. Oh, that's right.

Craig Melvin (64:11)

Oh, yeah. Stratcom. That's right. Stratcom is. I always forgot about.

Sagar Enjeti (64:14)

They're sort of economically tethered to the military industrial complex and in a district that is like a bit more urban and affluent.

Craig Melvin (64:24)

Yeah, that's. That Nebraska would be so reliant on the nuclear weapons.

Sagar Enjeti (64:27)

It is true. It's actually true. She like comes out and talks about how she's obsessed with nuclear weapons.

Craig Melvin (64:32)

Yes. Yeah, that's because. What is it? That's where the mountain is with the bunker and everything. I think Bush went there on 9 11.

Savannah Guthrie (64:38)

All right.

Craig Melvin (64:38)

Anyway, this is a whole separate podcast. Podcast.

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Senses aren't better, your TV is. Let's get over to Dan Caldwell appearance on Tucker Carlson. Dan Caldwell, as we said, was one of the individuals who was fired from the Trump administration, Pete Hegseth, his former boss, basically calling him a leaker. Even though Dan literally worked for Pete Hegseth and was one of the biggest supporters of his secretary becoming the secretary of Defense. Well, here's what Caldwell had to say. Ask point blank, did you ever leak any classified information like what is being alleged from the secretary and what is behind your firing? So let's take take a listen. It seems like the fastest way to derail the whole project. The Trump administration and the United States of America is a war with Iran. And that's why I've just been watching it as carefully as I can because I feel like again, if you hated Donald Trump and you hated what the administration is doing on immigration, trade, anti wokness, whatever, and you wanted to stop it, the first thing you would do is apply pressure to have the US Military engage in a war with Iran. I mean that that's my perspective on it anyway. I think that and also continuing to do what we've been doing previously in, in Russia, Ukraine for sure, for sure though it I don't know why. Well, I'M going to ask you all about this, but it feels like Wyckoff is, is helping a lot there. God bless. He's. I mean, I've already said he's a godsend. God bless Steve Wyckoff. I couldn't agree more. People knew that you weren't fully on board with the regime change program. Is that fair to say? Yeah, I was very open about it. I was very on the record about it. And most of the time when I was saying that we shouldn't do this, it was actually in support of, you know, the President's stated preferences. Like, the president clearly doesn't want this in the first term. There were people in his administration that wanted it. He didn't clearly. Clearly. He clearly didn't want it. And so it was supporting people who didn't want the war. And so I was essentially what Donald Trump had said, has said, and now his actions make perfectly clear he would strongly prefer a diplomatic solution. Correct. I don't want to speak for the president, but it's fairly obvious that that's what he wants. Well, he said it. I mean, he said it again and he ran on it. So, look, you can see that Caldwell is talking about Steve Wyckoff. He's talking about war with Iran, about the preference for Trump for a diplomatic sol. But look, we can all do the math. Who's the person who got fired here? Who's the person who's on the. Is it policy? I have no idea, to be honest. Basically, there's so much chaos that anybody can read so much of what we like. Anybody can read any intention into what's happening. But it just seems as if the collapse of the Pentagon front office, whether it is policy motivated or not, is one where Mike Walsh gets to keep his job, the neocons and the NSC get to keep their job. Steve Witkoff is basically safe for now. You have no idea if he'll make it or not anytime in the future. Because, like with the Gaza thing, he could be sidelined or he could be sent to Moscow or Putin tomorrow. We have no idea what the progress of those talks is going to look like. And the forces within the White House and the administration who want more war with Iran are now countersignaling to protect. Pete Hegseth, for example. Tom Cotton and others are some of his biggest defenders right now. So that's not a good sign. Not a good sign, me.

Sagar Enjeti (69:40)

But again, both of these things can be true, that this was driven, fueled by ideological differences, sharp ideological differences. And you have Neo Khan's foreign Policy blob coming hard after people like Dan. And then that pressure could have forced Hagseth to do something that probably was like, in response to it and not good. So I feel like both of them. I don't know. I think you're right. We genuinely don't know what's happening behind closed doors at the Pentagon right now. It sounds like Dan actually did not do anything wrong because I think you wouldn't go out aggressively in media and answer these questions point blank, talk to Tucker if that were the case. And I think maybe Pete Hegseth fired these guys to protect himself.

Craig Melvin (70:23)

Yes.

Sagar Enjeti (70:24)

These things don't have to be mutually exclusive.

Craig Melvin (70:26)

Yep. Yeah. Look, it's certainly possible. I just don't know. I do know, of course, though, that with the absence of people like this, that, you know, power, you know, fills a vacuum. And so we know where that's going to happen. He was also pressed specifically on leaking. Let's take a listen to that. So I just want to be totally direct with you. Did you leak classified information against the wishes of your superiors to media outlets? Absolutely not. Did you photograph klaf's classified material and then text pictures of that material to an NBC News reporter? Absolutely not. And I have not spoken to an NBC reporter while at the Pentagon on. Are you. Do you know what you've been accused of? No, I don't. Sitting here right now, myself and Darren Selnick and Colin Carroll, the other two individuals that were escorted out of the Pentagon initially placed on leave and then fired on Friday, we have not been told as of this recording, one, is there what we were being investigated for? Two, two, is there still an investigation? And three, was there even a real investigation? Because there's a lot of evidence that there is not a real investigation. So you could see specifically didn't leak classified information. And that wasn't it. People were like, oh, well, he didn't say. He didn't leak at all. It's like, well, Pete Hexseth just said you leave classified information. He said he didn't. I don't know. You know, maybe. But no polygraph test marks on ceremonially out of the building.

Sagar Enjeti (71:51)

Doesn't know if there's any investigation, no.

Craig Melvin (71:52)

Investigation, doesn't even know if there's an investigation, had been cleared of investigation, no result of investigation. You still just get walked out. I mean, he was talking about how up until the minute before he was told to leave the building that he had access to classified information, which is not the way that this all usually goes down and let's take it outside of Caldwell. Those other two. I've gotten to know some people who know them and they're saying it's preposterous that Darren Miller in particular would be leaky. He didn't even want to work at the Pentagon. Sorry. Apparently he didn't even be wanting to work at the Pentagon, did so out of loyalty to Pete Hegseth and now getting frog marched out of the building. So again, you can take that for what you will. But clearly the chaos inside of all of this, it's going to have a long standing effect. That's all I know.

Sagar Enjeti (72:37)

Yeah, and we're going to. I mean, whatever anybody thinks they know right now, we will probably find out that either it's much more nuanced or that it totally wasn't true because there's so much going on behind closed doors. But it does sound very clearly, at the very least, it sounds like these guys got burned by a friend. Not just a colleague, but a friend.

Craig Melvin (72:55)

That's exactly right.

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