← Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
4/28/25: FBI Arrests Judge, Bernie Claps Back At CIA Dem, India Pakistan On Brink Of War, Trump Saves Canadian Liberals
01:04:13
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- [00:01]
John O'Brien
Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24. 7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with.
- [00:25]
Sagar Enjeti
Your pets and year round peace of.
- [00:26]
Krystal Ball
Mind when it comes to their vet care.
- [00:31]
Sagar Enjeti
It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilbur's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.
- [00:47]
Krystal Ball
We were still in that place of like, what will this experience become? And you go, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.
- [00:55]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:00]
John O'Brien
70% of Americans are living from paycheck to paycheck. Not black people, not brown people, everybody. And whether you're white, black, red, brown or yellow, you want to see some more green. Can I get an amen? Hey, this is Financial Literacy Awareness Month. Tune in to Money and Wealth with John O'Brien, a podcast that breaks down financial freedom in a way that's real, relatable and rooted in empowerment. From rebuilding your credit to starting your wealth journey, I give you all the tools to rise. I'm going to break down how the modern economy works. This is what they never taught you in school. You're not dumb and you're not stupid. It's what you don't know that you don't know is killing you, but you think you know. To hear this and more practical wisdom, open your free iHeartradio app, search money and wealth with John O. Bryant and start listening today.
- [01:48]
Krystal Ball
Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.
- [01:50]
Sagar Enjeti
Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
- [01:57]
Krystal Ball
This is the only place where you.
- [01:58]
Sagar Enjeti
Can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist and anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breaking points.com Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows unedited ad, free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox we need your help to build the future of independent news media. And we hope to see you@breaking points.com. all right, let's go ahead and move over to some of the latest things that are happening with regard to immigration and deportations. We touched on, you know, the increasing unpopularity of what Trump is doing and how he really has already lost public trust with regard to his immigration agenda. Let's go ahead and put this latest event up on the screen. So a judge in Wisconsin was arrested by the FBI after she had allegedly directed an undocumented immigrant and out of a side door that is usually used for jury members. And she was upset that ICE agents had been coming to the courthouse, coming to her courtroom and waiting for immigrants to finish their hearings and then sweeping them up and arresting them. She was upset about that, reportedly. And so she directed this one immigrant and his lawyer to go out a side door. Now, the side door apparently led into a public hallway, and he was ultimately arrested anyway. But Ryan, they have now arrested her and charged her for their claiming that she obstructed their ability to arrest this particular immigrant.
- [03:32]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. And this happened to come, or I don't, I wouldn't say happened to come. It did come shortly after another judge in New Mexico was also arrested. And so it created this, this feeling of like, okay, there's a crackdown now on judges. The other one, though, was a, this utterly bizarre case. This is a magistrate judge who had actually stepped down because of this scandal that he ended up getting arrested for magistrate judge in the county means, like, you're handling like, very low level disorderly conduct cases and stuff like this. This is not somebody who has, you know, is out there like, stopping ICE buses from deporting people. So it's completely separate. This guy's judge, Jose Luis Canoe, and his bizarre case was he had three guys living in his guest house in New Mexico who were like, handymen. Like, he'd met him as handymen for his property. And in February, there was a raid and it was claimed that the three men, and they say they have lots of evidence beyond, like, oh, he was wearing a Chicago Bulls cap, like, actual evidence that they were Trende Aragua members. And so they arrest those and then they arrest the guy and his wife for hiding these men that Trump had declared a member of a group that are now Trump declared them a terror group while he's in office. So, like, after they kind of moved into his little guest house. So his defense was, I had no idea. Like, they're just handymen, Right. Like, okay, are they? And he even said, like, I've got grandkids who come over here and played with those guys. If I was told that they were gang members, I wouldn't have let my grandkids play with them. What they were arrested for was tampering with evidence. We don't know exactly what evidence they tampered with. Judges innocent until proven guilty. But in general, some people, when they find themselves in trouble, they quickly are deleting all of their text messages or something, and that's easy to see or whatever. Who knows what, if anything, they did. But they didn't even charge them, it seems like, with housing them. But anyway. And then the first case, since we don't have SAG or Emily here, when you normally have somebody trying to defend the case. Let me see if I can make the best case. The best argument for the fact that she committed a crime is that she was quite hostile with the ICE agents. Absolutely did not like them in her courthouse.
- [06:13]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [06:14]
Krystal Ball
And was, like, whispering in the courtroom, like, hey, come here, come here, come here. Like, go out this way. In a way that suggests, like, some consciousness of trying to, like, usher them out. Now, your point, like, that led to a public hallway anyway.
- [06:30]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [06:30]
Krystal Ball
Like, the argument would be, she was trying even if she didn't succeed. And there is a federal law. Whether that law should be constitutional or not, I think is open to question. I don't think it should be, because I think you should be able to. I think if, like, it's called, basically, it's like a harboring an immigration fugitive. And I guess on one level, if there's, like. If there's a murderer running around and you're, like, hiding the murderer, and you know they're a murderer, Okay. I guess that should be a crime. But there's another case. I don't think we have it in here. That's going on Tennessee. Did you see this one? Where? No. Maybe it was in Virginia, actually.
- [07:09]
Sagar Enjeti
Oh, in Charlottesville.
- [07:10]
Krystal Ball
Yes, yes, yes, yes. You wanna talk about that one where they're trying to prosecute, like, a couple activists who are like, yeah, put C4. Oh, yeah, we do have it.
- [07:16]
Sagar Enjeti
We do have it. C4 up on the screen.
- [07:17]
Krystal Ball
Because you've got these plainclothes kind of thugs who are just grabbing people. And you have a prosecutor and then you have a couple activists who are saying, let me see your warrant. Let me see some id. And they're standing in their way.
- [07:29]
Sagar Enjeti
Who are you? Show me your badge. Right. Because I wish we had grabbed the video, but we Showed it previously. We played it because it's quite chilling. I mean, there is no law that prevents ICE for making these arrests in courthouses. But it used to be like, you don't do that. Right, right. And now that has been explicitly, like, there was, I think, a memo that went out for the Trump administration, like, nope, you can go to the schools, you can go to the courthouses, you can go to the churches, et cetera. And so you see these plainclothes individuals, one of them completely masked, who come in and are kind of aggressively arresting this guy. And, yeah, I assume his lawyers and these activists are saying, where's your warrant? Where's your badge number? Who are you with? And they're just being stonewalled on nearly all of these questions. And so now they're charging these individuals who are just saying, hey, what is going on? Like, are you just kidnapping this? Like, what is happening here?
- [08:22]
Krystal Ball
Well, they haven't charged the activists yet, but they're investigating them or something.
- [08:25]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay, yeah, yeah. So in any case, or threatening to. This comes amid. Also, it's important, the context. You obviously have the Republicans constantly saying, we're going to impeach the judges. What was Stephen Miller, we got to get these communist judges out of here. Like Trump asserting that he is effectively the personal representative of the will of the people. And so if courts are disagreeing with his lawless actions, then they are thwarting the will of the people, and they are therefore illegitimate. We see this administration obviously, like, outright defying court orders, whether it's turning the planes around or refusing to facilitate Kilmar Abrego Garcia's return, even though the Supreme Court said you have to do that. So it's amidst that climate that you now see this. You know, look, I'm not a legal expert. I want to talk to Pisco or someone else about the strength of this case, but to my readings, very weak case leading to the arrest of this judge. And they also did it in a very provocative public way where, you know, I mean, no one thinks this judge is, like, a threat to public safety or whatever. You could have. If you wanted to charge her, you could have had her voluntarily surrender and not have the images of the handcuffs and all this sort of stuff. So it's. There's no doubt. I think there is no doubt that this is an intentional signal that is being sent to the judiciary, to anyone who may try to defend the rights of immigrants. I recall also Tom Homan going on TV and saying they might charge AOC because she had done one of These, like, know your rights type of seminars, which is something that other members of Congress have, you know, have done, which is just about educating people. Hey, literally, here are your rights, here's what you're, you can do, and here's what you can't do, et cetera. So I, and Ken Klippenstein has reported on how Seb Gorka, who is the counterterror czar, is a significant position within the administration, saying that he believes that people who protest the Trump deportation policy may be aiding and abetting, providing material support to a terrorist group, which would also indicate criminal potential charges against activists or others who would resist the direction the Trump administration has gone in.
- [10:39]
Krystal Ball
Yes, if you ever read any journalism or history about any authoritarian government throughout history, for hundreds of years, as soon as the idea of terrorism became a thing, authoritarian governments seized on terrorism as the reason that they were cracking down on their enemies and saying, okay, this is. And so here the case would be, okay, whether it's Trendrawagua or, let's say, Hamas, like, okay, you are protesting Israel's genocide in Gaza that is supportive of Hamas. Therefore, anybody involved in any of that can be surveilled. And by the way, the Democrats deserve an enormous amount of criticism for this, for expanding surveillance authorities, which allows the NSA to basically collect information and communications of people who are here on student visas or green card holders. And so they're basically able to surveil every WhatsApp group, every, you know, every, you know, assume they can get through whatever the encryption is onto your phone. And then if they're American citizens on there, then they're reading their stuff, too, and they're all. And they're doing it all in the name of fighting terrorism.
- [11:54]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [11:54]
Krystal Ball
And it's exactly what Steve Miller said. We're going to get these terrorists off your. Off your streets. When that's not actually how people understand immigration, even mass immigration or even mass deportation. I think people understand it as, these people came here illegally and we're gonna deport them like those, the supporters of Trump's immigration policy. They don't think they're terrorists.
- [12:19]
Sagar Enjeti
One of the innovations of the Trump 2.0 campaign is previously, even I would say Trump 1.0, there was a mixture of this, but Trump 2.0 was more of the pure embodiment. Previously, the conversation about immigration was like, they're taking your jobs, JD Van's retire, they're causing the cost of housing to go up, et cetera. Trump talks about immigrants almost exclusively as criminals. And so they really sought to betray this group, even though we all know the data that undocumented immigrants have a lower crime rate than the native born population and documented immigrants have an even lower crime rate than the native born population. But he really sought to portray every immigrant, and you see this in this administration very clearly as a criminal and a terrorist. And you know, that is, I think in real time, people are realizing that was not accurate, because if that was accurate, you wouldn't have trouble. You wouldn't be having to round up, you know, Andre, the gay makeup artist who had a mom and dad tattoo or the autism awareness guy, and throw them in an El Salvador dungeon, hoping that no one would be able to figure out who these people are and actually dig into the fact that they have no criminal records. They are not gang members. They're the only thing. And some of them actually had followed the government process and were in the midst of seeking asylum and had done everything right that they were supposed to be doing in that process. If there were, you know, if we were overrun with millions of criminal gang member terrorists, it wouldn't be so hard to find 200 of them to be able to ship off. And even though on a principle ground, you should still not support anyone, even if they did have criminal charges, being sentenced with no due process for life to this torture dungeon, I'm under no illusion that the public would really object too strenuously to that having been done. So I think it exposes the lie upon which they built this whole anti immigrant hysteria. And so in addition to your point about the way that this is being used to erode everyone's rights, and they really make no secret of this, especially with Trump making the connection to, hey, this is happening for immigrants now. Homegrowns, quote, unquote, are next. And the crackdown on universities that already directly impacts US Citizens their ability to pursue a degree through their ability to marry the people that they want to marry without having them shipped off or arrested and kidnapped in the middle of the night or in broad daylight with multiple ICE agents, et cetera, put C3 up on the screen. It is this administration's position that if an ICE agent believes that they are pursuing a quote, unquote, alien enemy, so doesn't require any sort of process or anything like that. If they believe they're pursuing an alien enemy, they can go in your house without a warrant to look for migrants. So that is an extra, I think. I mean, to me it's blatantly unconstitutional, but as we all know, it takes time for these challenges to make their way through the courts, et cetera. But if you don't think that this applies to everyone, then I would beg you to consider what we've already learned about the way that they have gone about this policy and the way that they will, they'll snatch up anyone. We've got US citizen kids who are being deported now with little to no due process, etc.
- [15:42]
Krystal Ball
C2, if you want to put that one.
- [15:43]
Sagar Enjeti
C2, we can put this up on the screen. One of them has cancer. Another one judge is already saying, I think with the, I think with it was the four year old. The judges, the four year old I think has cancer. The two year old I think is the one that dad was in the process of arguing, no, this child should stay here in the US not be deported alongside her Honduran mother and sister. So yeah, I mean this has implications not just for the immigrant population, which in my opinion you should care about, but certainly has implications for the entire population here.
- [16:16]
Krystal Ball
And I feel kind of just stupid like saying like, couldn't you do your far right wing policy without doing this? It's like, I guess you can't. It's kind of the cliche during Trump. One was the cruelty is the point. And it's like if you can't do this mass deportation policy. It's not even mass actually. It's just a spectacular deportation policy because mass would, you're not reaching anywhere near the numbers. You've got DHS celebrating if they get over a few dozen deportations. If you can't do it without deporting a four year old with cancer or. I don't, I don't know the details if it was the four year old or the mother or something like. But if you, but if you can't, if this, and if this makes up like a significant portion of your deportations.
- [17:15]
Sagar Enjeti
Right.
- [17:16]
Krystal Ball
Then yeah, you sold it wrong. And that's, and that's the key point. Like he sold it based on a lie, which is that these are all criminals.
- [17:23]
Sagar Enjeti
Right.
- [17:24]
Krystal Ball
Therefore you have to apply a kind of criminal justice standard.
- [17:29]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [17:30]
Krystal Ball
And it doesn't work. And so you have to then, you know, put cuffs on a four year old.
- [17:35]
Sagar Enjeti
Right. And. Yeah. And vanish them before anyone can have a chance to look into the veracity of your claims.
- [17:41]
Krystal Ball
Right.
- [17:42]
John O'Brien
Which is the real problem.
- [17:42]
Krystal Ball
Well, that's a shame. They're in Honduras now.
- [17:45]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, they're in. What can you do?
- [17:47]
Krystal Ball
It's not in our problem anymore.
- [17:48]
Sagar Enjeti
Just to reiterate your point about the use of terrorism designations to claim power in authoritarian regimes, I mean, we already see this with multiple groups, not just obviously immigrants. That's really clear cut with supporters of Palestine with the hands off protesters, according to Ken Klippenstein reporting. Also, they're looking at hands off protesters. So basically any resistance to Trump as being terrorists, domestic terrorists, anyone who would oppose the deportation policy, anyone who harbors ill feelings about Tesla, anyone who's out there, Luigi posting. These are all groups that this administration is beginning to view as domestic terrorists. And we also have seen the way that they have used basically emergency or national security powers to consolidate power in the Executive. Alien Enemies act, perfect example of that. You are supposed to be at war, right? It's only been used three times. All three were very clearly War of 1812, World War I, World War II. Those are the three times the alien Enemies act has been invoked prior to this.
- [18:57]
Krystal Ball
And we declared war then. Yes, Congress declared war.
- [19:00]
Sagar Enjeti
Yes. And they're making this preposterous claim that we're at war with Venezuela because they had Trenda Aragua invade us. I mean, I hope and expect that this will likely eventually be struck down by the courts. You never know with the Supreme Court stacked as it is, but I expect that will be the case. But not only that the tariff powers are also claimed through a national emergency. And I think this is the playbook for Trump 2.0, is that they use these supposed terrorism or national security or national emergency assertions, which courts have previously granted presidents broad discretion to be able to invoke. They're using these assertions to be able to circumvent due process, to be able to grab powers for the executive that are really clearly delegated in the case of terrorists to Congress and be able to sort of unilaterally effectuate their agenda. So that has been the playbook for Trump 2.0, and it goes far beyond what's happening with the immigration system. It's nostalgia overload, as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amig. Wilbur's friend and former that 70s show cast mate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.
- [20:23]
Krystal Ball
We were still in that place of like, what will this experience become? And you go, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.
- [20:31]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The big guests continue on Las Culturistas. This week. It's the Very funny, Amy Poehler.
- [20:42]
Krystal Ball
Don't overthink it.
- [20:43]
Sagar Enjeti
They talk water. We did not not drink water growing up. Water was not a thing. Parenting, you got teen boys.
- [20:49]
Krystal Ball
This is like the black diamond of parenting.
- [20:52]
Sagar Enjeti
And of course, I don't think so, honey.
- [20:54]
Krystal Ball
Horror movies.
- [20:55]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay, okay.
- [20:56]
John O'Brien
Amy Poehler is on Las Culta.
- [21:00]
Sagar Enjeti
The latest episode is out now. Listen to Las culturistas on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Camila Ramon Peloton's first Spanish speaking cycling and tread instructor. I'm an athlete, entrepreneur, and almost most importantly, a pareo enthusiast. And I'm Liz Ortiz, former pro soccer player and Olympian. And like, call me a parrello enthusiast. Come on, who is it? Our podcast, Hasta Vajo is where sports, music and fitness collide. And we cover it all, the Arriva Hasta sit downs, with real game changers in the sports world, like Miami Dolphins CMO Priscilla Shumate, who is redefining what it means to be a Latina leader.
- [21:41]
Krystal Ball
It all changed when I had this.
- [21:43]
Sagar Enjeti
Guy come to me. He said to me, you know, you're not Latina enough. First of all, what is that?
- [21:48]
Krystal Ball
My mouth is wide open.
- [21:49]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah. History makers like the Sucar family who became the first Peruvians to win a Grammy.
- [21:55]
David Dole
It was a very special moment for us.
- [21:58]
Krystal Ball
It's been 15 years for me in this career.
- [22:00]
David Dole
Finally, things are starting to shift into a different level.
- [22:04]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Astavajo on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner.
- [22:13]
John O'Brien
Of iHeart Women's Sports Network.
- [22:16]
Krystal Ball
Senator Alyssa Slotkin had told Bernie Sanders and AOC to stop using the word oligarchy because they're confusing our simple little American public. Bernie Sanders was asked about that on Meet the Press. Let's roll. His response?
- [22:29]
Sagar Enjeti
Democrats should stop using the term oligarchy because it's a phrase that doesn't resonate with all Americans. Are you missing a chance to, to speak to a wider audience, Senator?
- [22:42]
Krystal Ball
Well, Jeez, we had 36,000 people out in Los Angeles, 34,000 people in Colorado. We had 30,000 people in Folsom, California, which is kind of a rural area. I think the American people are not quite as dumb as Ms. Slotkin thinks they are. I think they understand very well when the top 1% owns more wealth than the bottom 90%, when big money interests are able to control both political parties, they are living in an oligarchy. And these are precisely the issues that have got to be talked about. Are you living in a democracy when Mr. Musk can spend $270 million to elect Trump and then becomes the most important person in government or AIPAC and other super PACs have enormous power over Democratic candidates? Those are issues that we have got to talk about. That is the reality of American society today. The very rich getting richer, working class people are struggling, 800,000 people sleeping out on the streets. If we don't address that issue, the American people will continue to turn their backs on democracy because they're looking around them and they're saying, does anybody understand what I am going through? AOC's response, we can put up D2 here, was simply to put up the dictionary definition of oligarchy for anybody who need it. Although surveys show that actually people don't need it. That people were asked if they could define it and they basically could. It's not that complicated a word. Like a bunch of billionaires running everything.
- [24:16]
Sagar Enjeti
Well, and Alissa Slotkin, many pointed out, had no problem using the word oligarchy when she was applying it to Russia. Oh yes, there are all sorts of posts to her talking about Russian oligarchs and oligarchy, whatever. It's only when it's being applied here at home that the former CIA spook has a problem with.
- [24:35]
Krystal Ball
You know, I'm always on the lookout for the left adopting some faculty lounge language that might be. That might be kind of off putting. I don't think that's what's happening here. But I'm curious for your take. But for me, it works in two different ways. Cause it works for independents who feel like the system is rigged and is controlled by billionaires. It works for people on the left who buy into the entire thing. But it also works with kind of resistance libs who have been really energized around defending democracy. And the left and some others kind of scoff at that. This whole like, oh, democracy, that's not real. It's a distraction from fighting for the working class and for improving people's material conditions. But oligarchy is a frame that covers that. If you are somebody who is worried about our democracy eroding.
- [25:33]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [25:33]
Krystal Ball
Who's the one doing. Who's the one eroding it? It's the oligarchs.
- [25:37]
Sagar Enjeti
Right.
- [25:37]
Krystal Ball
So you capture everybody under that umbrella.
- [25:41]
Sagar Enjeti
I think that's really well put. And the proof is in the pudding. Like we know who is turning up to those Bernie AOC rallies. It's not just quote unquote, you know, Bernie Bros from 2016 and 2020. It is a lot. And we talked to Dave Weigel about this. It is a lot of normie Democrats, which is why AOC is shooting up in the polls in terms of who is the leader of the Democratic Party. And so, yeah, I think it's an incredibly helpful frame. As you said when we were talking about this on Friday, I think voters actually appreciate being treated as adults who are capable of understanding concepts that like oligarchy, which I think we are all getting a rapid lesson in how that takes shape and what it means for all of us. So, you know, political consultants have been trying to come up with this like sort of focused grouped language about how do we connect the fight for democracy with like peoples, you know, with the price of eggs or whatever. And usually that ends up in a very tortured direction where you're not really making a good case either about the material circumstances or about the genuine threats to democracy. And I think the framing of oligarchy really does serve those ends incredibly effectively. Incredibly effectively. Like you can see no one else in the Democratic Party has the level, has garnered the level of energy, attention and excitement as AOC and Bernie have. I guess next I would put like Chris Van Hollen taking a genuinely, I would say, courageous action going down to El Salvador, like actually doing something out in the real world. I will say a lot of liberals are very excited about Cory Booker's speech. That one didn't speak to me personally as much, but I do want to say a lot of people were really excited about that because it at least showed some fights. But viewing what is happening in the Trump administration through this lens of oligarchy, I think really does unify the left, the liberals, and creates this sort of powerful coalition that is also somewhat oppositional to the think tank driven abundance conversation that Alyssa Slotkin. I don't know if she calls herself an abundance person, but she would be more in line with that. And the last thing I'll say about it is aoc and you could speak, speak to this better than anyone. She has really positioned herself previously as being wanting to work within the boundaries of the Democratic Party and not wanting to get too crosswise with leadership, et cetera. The fact that she and Bernie are both taking a much more directly adversarial position vis a vis Alissa Slotkin firing back, I think is also kind of a sign of the times and a sign they feel that the public is on their side.
- [28:14]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, because a lot of times in the past the party establishment or slot can types would fire at Bernie or AOC people in the squad. And they wouldn't even fire back.
- [28:26]
Sagar Enjeti
That's right.
- [28:26]
Krystal Ball
They would just take the arrows and be like, we're being part of a team. Not what kind of team is this that's just constantly shooting at you. But now they're feeling better, like they're feeling their oats, and they're ready to fire back. On that front, we have news out this morning that Justice Democrats is making its first endorsement, not just of the 2026 cycle, but even of the 2024 cycle. Well, not that they didn't endorse anybody in the 2024 cycle, but they didn't recruit anybody to challenge sitting incumbents because they put all of their energy into protecting the squad, four of whom they survived, two of whom, famously Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, after tens of millions were spent, did not. So this is the first time that they're going back on offense. And it's Donovan McKinney, who is a state rep in Detroit, who's running against Sri Thanadar, who we'll talk about in a moment and is quite a fun, fun guy to kind of.
- [29:31]
Sagar Enjeti
He's a character.
- [29:31]
Krystal Ball
He's quite, quite a character. So this would give you two Justice Democrats in Detroit, because Rashida Tlaib is there as well. He's a former climate activist, grew up working class in Detroit, and he talks about that in his biography, which. Let's roll his launch video, which is rolling out this morning, just to get a sense of where kind of the Justice Democrats left is in thinking about their positioning against an incumbent Democrat. So let's roll this opening ad. People across this country and even the world know Detroit, or they think they do. They know our music, our sports, our struggle. But what people always forget is none of this is possible without our people. This district is one of the poorest places in America, but the mighty 13th knows hard work better than anyone. It's the people who clock in generation after generation, shift after shift, that get forgotten first. Somewhere along the way, we got convinced we should settle for less from the people we elect to represent us. I'm running for Congress because we deserve better. We deserve a Democratic Party that leads the fight against the billionaires robbing us blinds, that stands up to corporate pacts. Our country and our children can afford nothing less. People like our congressman, Cherie Tanenau are the problem. A multimillionaire who spent millions to buy a seat of Cony, who has more in common with Donald Trump and Elon Musk than people like us. I was born next to smokestacks. We moved 13 times as a kid.
- [31:12]
John O'Brien
Sometimes it was an apartment.
- [31:13]
Krystal Ball
Sometimes it was a family member's house. Sometimes it was even our own car.
- [31:18]
Sagar Enjeti
But wherever it was, my mom and.
- [31:20]
Krystal Ball
Grandma made sure it felt like home. I spent my life trying to give back, to help the place and people I love. I've never forgotten my roots or the true purpose of why I serve. So always put the people first. When things are darkest, it's when you fight the hardest. I'm running for my wife, mother, and grandmother and all women who deserve a Congress that fights for their rights. I'm running for my baby boys. Because the block you live on should determine how far you'll go. I want it for you. Because like all of you, I know we deserve better. This is my home. This is our community. This is our future. And the choice is ours. I'm Donovan McKinney, and I'm running for Congress to take back this seat for us. Always with the people. So what do you make of that messaging? I mean, the touch, the vocabulary, Green New Deal, Medicare for All, like that type of stuff that was stock in 2018 wasn't really in there, but what'd you think of the messaging?
- [32:19]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, it's a class framing. This guy's out of touch. He's in there. He has more in touch with Donald Trump and Elon Musk than he does with you and me. I'm connected to this community, and I'm going to be the one who's there to actually fight for you.
- [32:30]
Krystal Ball
Now, the funny thing is who he's running against, you just can't make this guy up. So roll the next element. Zed Jelani busted this guy in absolutely hilarious fashion in 2018 when he was running for governor of Michigan. He was actually the front runner for governor ahead of Whitmer when Zed wrote this story. And the story was that he met with a bunch of consultants ahead of the race, both Republican and Democratic. And they asked him, like, tell us about yourself. If we're going to represent you, what. What party are you gonna run as? Like, are you a Republican? Democratic? He's like, you tell me.
- [33:15]
Sagar Enjeti
Oh, my God.
- [33:16]
Krystal Ball
It's like, I wanna be governor. Tell me what I need.
- [33:20]
Sagar Enjeti
What's the lane?
- [33:20]
Krystal Ball
What's the lane? And tell me what I need to say. He was confused. Like, wait a minute. I'm gonna tell you this. You're the consultant.
- [33:26]
Sagar Enjeti
Oh, my God.
- [33:26]
Krystal Ball
You tell me what I think. And the one thing that was consistent in his conversations with these consultants was that he had a visceral disdain for Bernie, but Bernie was hot then. So he ended up running as Bernie. He was gonna do Medicare for All for Michigan and like he did a whole Bernie campaign and was spending his own money and as a result was at the very top. And then this came out as like. And then other things, like he was just a complete mess. So then in 2022, so the Bernie.
- [33:57]
Sagar Enjeti
Branding initially actually was working.
- [33:58]
Krystal Ball
It was working. It was actually working for him. And then he faded and Whitmer wins. Then in 2022 he runs for Congress and spends millions of his own money as a leftist again. Oh, first he, I guess it was 2020. He runs like a state rep seat or something. So he buys a house in the legislature.
- [34:17]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay.
- [34:18]
Krystal Ball
Then he runs for Congress. When he was in the legislature, he signed onto resolutions that called Israel an apartheid state and said that it should not get any US funding. So it's common popular position in Detroit. He runs for Congress saying similar things. AIPAC spent like 4 or 5 million dollars in 2022 trying to beat him. And he overcame it because he spent so much of his own money. So he's then elected to Congress. After he's elected to Congress, AIPAC takes him and his family on a trip to Israel and he comes back, he's reformed, does a complete 180. So then in 2024, activists in Detroit recruit somebody to run against him and AIPAC spends millions defending Sri Thanadhar because now he's a full on pro Israel guy.
- [35:17]
Sagar Enjeti
That's so funny though that he had already defeated them and then capitulates like, you know, the move is to be John Fetterman and just be like, I don't want you in my race. Let me.
- [35:27]
Krystal Ball
So AIPAC has now, from the jump, they have now spent like $10 million on him. Half of it against him, half of it for him. His opponent, her name was Mary Waters, she raised only about $200,000. So she didn't really run. She was serious, but she didn't have the money to compete.
- [35:45]
Sagar Enjeti
Gotcha. So what you're telling me is Donovan is gonna be facing millions of dollars in.
- [35:50]
Krystal Ball
He's definitely gonna be facing millions, but he has already. The other thing that makes this a much different Justice Democrats race is that he already has the support of like a ton of like establishment Democrats.
- [36:01]
Sagar Enjeti
Interesting.
- [36:02]
Krystal Ball
Just because Sri Thaner is just a ridiculous figure.
- [36:05]
Sagar Enjeti
Interesting.
- [36:06]
Krystal Ball
It's so, it's so weird to them and it's just, it does not helpful to them to have a member of Congress who you. You can't. You can't trust. You don't know, like, what he's going to believe a week later. So even if you're just a machine politician, that's not helpful for you.
- [36:19]
Sagar Enjeti
He's almost like the George Santos of the left.
- [36:21]
Krystal Ball
He's. He's. Yes. Like it. And there are allegations of fraud, which you can find, like it's a real Santos of the left kind of situation. And so even regular Democrats, and I think sources in Detroit say that this could be the first JD candidate out of the gate to actually have, like organized labor support, which is like, that's the coalition that you need, that you need the kind of DSA or whatever you call it, plus organized labor to actually take over the party.
- [36:55]
Sagar Enjeti
So how much offense is Justice Democrats in a position to go on this cycle?
- [37:00]
Krystal Ball
Not a ton.
- [37:01]
Sagar Enjeti
They gotta pick their spots.
- [37:02]
Krystal Ball
And they've never really. The first year when they did AOC and Cori, Bush and Rashida Tlieb, Neil and Omar, all the others, they endorsed like 100 plus people. They've never done that since then because they couldn't. All they could do is endorse.
- [37:16]
Sagar Enjeti
Right.
- [37:16]
Krystal Ball
They could only really go in on a couple.
- [37:18]
Sagar Enjeti
Thank you.
- [37:19]
Krystal Ball
So we'll state now if they team up with our guy, what's his name, the DNC Vice President.
- [37:28]
Sagar Enjeti
Oh, David Hogg.
- [37:28]
Krystal Ball
Parkland. Yeah, David Hogg, who's talking about spending.
- [37:32]
Sagar Enjeti
Millions of dollars going after Bernie's recruiting candidates as well.
- [37:36]
Krystal Ball
Yeah. And if they're threatening to kick him out of the DNC for doing this, which he's gotta leave the dnc. Right. Like, if he capitulates and walks back from that, that's the end of him. Right.
- [37:47]
Sagar Enjeti
I mean, in my opinion, I guess it wouldn't be the end of him as, like, party functionary.
- [37:51]
Krystal Ball
You could be a party functionary the rest of your life. That doesn't seem to be what he wants to be.
- [37:55]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah. And he has enough of his own profile. He doesn't need the dnc.
- [38:00]
John O'Brien
Right.
- [38:00]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, that's what I would think as well.
- [38:01]
Krystal Ball
Dnc Vice President, vice chair. What is that? I doubt he even gets paid for that.
- [38:07]
Sagar Enjeti
I have no idea. Yeah, I have no idea. It gets you, like, you know, you get into the suites with the fancy corporate boxes and whatever.
- [38:13]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, I guess you get some boxes. Yeah. So Donovan McKinney taking on Sri Thanadar, it'd be interesting if he knocks him off, but in some ways it would not be like when AOC took out Joe Crowley. That was a blow to the structure of the Democratic Party. Now they replaced him as caucus chair with Hakeem Jeffries. So the structure restructured itself. But taking out Sri Thanadhar, nice.
- [38:38]
Sagar Enjeti
But it's like there's plenty of establishment Democrats who would be on board with that as well. Gotcha. Okay. All right. We wanted to make sure to cover what is unfolding in India and Pakistan because these are two nuclear powers always at odds with one another. But tension has ramped up significantly after a horrific terrorist attack last week. So let's go ahead and get to our guest. It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amig. Wilbur's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.
- [39:15]
Krystal Ball
We were still in that place of like, what will this experience become? And you go, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.
- [39:24]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The big guests continue on Las Culturistas. This week, it's the very funny Amy Poehler.
- [39:35]
Krystal Ball
Don't overthink it.
- [39:36]
Sagar Enjeti
They talk water. We did not drink growing up. Water was not a thing. Parenting, you got teen boys.
- [39:42]
Krystal Ball
This is like the black diamond of parenting.
- [39:45]
Sagar Enjeti
And of course, I don't think so, honey.
- [39:47]
Krystal Ball
Horror movies.
- [39:48]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay, okay.
- [39:49]
John O'Brien
Amy Poehler is on Las Culta.
- [39:53]
Sagar Enjeti
The latest episode is out now. Listen to Las culturistas on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Camila Ramon Peloton's first Spanish speaking cycling and tread instructor. I'm an athlete, entrepreneur, and almost most importantly, a parrero enthusiast. And I'm Liz Ortiz, former pro soccer player and Olympian. And like, call me a parrello enthusiast. Come on, who is it? Our podcast, Hasta Vajo is where sports, music and fitness collide and we cover it all the Arriva Hasta sit downs with real game changers in the sports world, like Miami Dolphins CMO Priscilla Shumate.
- [40:31]
Krystal Ball
Who is redefining what it means to.
- [40:33]
Sagar Enjeti
Be a Latina leader.
- [40:34]
Krystal Ball
It all changed when I had this.
- [40:36]
Sagar Enjeti
Guy come to me. He said to me, you know, you're not Latina enough. First of all, what is that?
- [40:41]
Krystal Ball
My mouth is wide open. Yeah.
- [40:43]
Sagar Enjeti
History makers like the Sucal family who became the first Peruvians to win a Grammy.
- [40:48]
David Dole
It was very special moment for us. It's been 15 years for me in this career. Finally, things are starting to shift into a different level.
- [40:57]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Astavajo on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner.
- [41:06]
John O'Brien
Of iHeart Women's Sports Network.
- [41:09]
Krystal Ball
India and Pakistan continue to be at the break of all out war, it feels like. And joining us to discuss it is Dropsite News South Asia correspondent Siddharthia Roy joining us from you in Delhi now, Sid?
- [41:24]
David Dole
Yep, I'm in Delhi.
- [41:25]
Krystal Ball
All right. Well, thank you so much for joining us. I want to start with this Donald Trump clip on Air Force One where he was asked about the rising tensions. Let's roll this. Any message for them? Are you going to be talking to their leaders? I'm very close to India and I'm very close to Pakistan, as you know. And they've had that fight for a thousand years in Kashmir. Kashmir has been going on for a thousand years, probably longer than that. And it was a bad one yesterday, though. That was a bad one.
- [41:56]
David Dole
Over 30 people.
- [41:57]
Krystal Ball
Are you concerned that there's now tensions.
- [41:59]
John O'Brien
On the border between them that you, how are you concerned? Are you about that?
- [42:03]
Krystal Ball
Well, there have been tensions on that border for 1,500 years. So, you know, the same as it's been. But they'll get it figured out one way or the other. I'm sure that. I know both leaders. There's great tension between Pakistan and India, but there always has been. So not sure about Trump's history lesson there, but the, the proximate cause of the tensions is a brutal terrorist attack that was carried out last week which killed, I believe, 25, 26, 26, almost all Hindu tourists. All Hindu tourists, All Hindu tourists. And the details of the attack are absolutely, absolutely chilling. The gunmen going person to person asking basically, are you Muslim, are you Hindu? And if they find Muslim, just executing them on the spot, including one Christian as well, who was killed after some mention of Gaza apparently as well. So just absolutely horrific. My understanding is in India they're talking about it as kind of our October 7th. And we know what happened in Israel after October 7th. So, Sid, from your understanding, are we going to get war here?
- [43:33]
David Dole
I hope not. I hope we're not. India and Pakistan decide better than to go into war with each other because these aren't, this is not an Israel Palestine conflict. This is a conflict between two nations who are pretty much armed to the table, teeth with nuclear stockpile. So a war, if it breaks out between these two countries, the Escalation will go to really bad places. But it's not just hope that I'm counting on. It's also history. It's also reality of today. Direct war doesn't really help either the ruling dispensation of India or that of Pakistan. These formats of attacks, you know, what they call proxy war in these parts, this has been happening for quite a while and usually we see a pattern that there is some terror attack, as they call it. Then the victim country, the leadership there starts making big statements that we are going to go to war, we are going to do this, we are going to do that. Completely diverts or deflects attention from the fact that there has been a massive intel failure, a massive security failure on their side. And then it goes through this dangerous game of brinkmanship and they start pulling out. They're piling up their forces and tanks and everything. But we haven't really seen a full on escalation. And may I mention here that India sent out its navy towards its big warship towards Pakistan day before yesterday, but that ship is now back in the docks. So, no, I don't think there is an immediate chance of escalation.
- [45:16]
Sagar Enjeti
Let's go ahead and put E3 up on the screen, guys. You wrote an incredibly prescient piece for Dropsite saying Modi's Hindu nationalist project in Jammu and Kashmir has become a nightmare for Hindus. Really sadly prescient, effectively predicting some sort of horrific terrorist attack as the one that we just witnessed last week. Perhaps you can explain a little bit of the recent. If you want the longer term, history can give President Trump here a little bit of an education on where the tensions actually originally stem from, not 1,000 or 1,500 years in the past, as he asserted there. But what is the different approach that Modi has taken with regard to this region and what have some of the consequences been? Why were you able to predict that we would see something as horrible as what we did just see?
- [46:06]
David Dole
Well, unlike Trump, or for that matter, Mr. Modi or General Asim Munir, some of us journalists actually spend time in Kashmir and trying to understand what's happening on the ground. That's why we are able to see certain patterns. The principal thing that Modi did was he scrapped a very important part of the Indian constitution which granted a very large amount of autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. When he scrapped that, he made a sweeping declaration that the scrapping of, as they call it, the abrogation of Article 370, it would usher in an era of absolute Peace and terrorism would finish once and for all, very much like what we keep hearing President Trump saying every once in a while. Instead, what happened is that the abrogation led to the suspension of the elected civilian government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, and it became completely controlled by New Delhi, which in turn meant that the intel networks, the ground level human intelligence networks, which actually worked to feed information, preemptive measures were taken. Basis that information, they died out slowly. Principle among them is it's not spoken about very widely, but one of the biggest sources of intelligence for the New Delhi government are the political parties who work on the ground in Kashmir. When you have suspended elections, when you have effectively debarred them, taken away their franchise, they do not want to cooperate. And that's what happened here. Last but not the least, we have to understand what sort of politics Mr. Modi espouses. It's one which is unbridled hatred against the Muslim population. Even if he may not say it in as many words anymore. His teams are out there abusing, demeaning, defaming Indian Muslims all the time. How does he expect the local population to cooperate and give him intelligence of these thoughts? That's what we spoke about in our story, in our investigation, and I wish it wasn't this way, but yes, we did tell the world so.
- [48:36]
Krystal Ball
And can you talk a little bit about the group that initially claimed credit for the attack, but then very oddly kind of backed off of that a few days later, and what is understood in India to be the, the backing of this attack?
- [48:57]
David Dole
So the group is called the Resistance Front. The Resistance Front appears to be, from all our sources, from all government records, nothing but a rebranding of the Lashkar e Taiba, one of the largest militant and terrorist organizations in the world, which is based out of Pakistan primarily and is focused on secessionist activities in Kashmir. What we saw, not only in this attack, even in the previous attack which we've mentioned in our report, Reassi, I think it was where the TRF claimed responsibility and then said, oh no, it wasn't us, but that doesn't really matter. That's not something we need to look into too much. Because if the TRF is merely the Lashkara Taiba, then they've been around for a while. The Indians, technically speaking, have not given any proof on the table showing direct involvement of Pakistan, but even a cursory history, look at history of how the LET operates. I mean, their chief is sitting and alive and under the protection of the Pakistani government, though he's under several International sanctions. This is the all roads kind of lead back to Pakistan. And the Indian population is quite convinced. And interestingly enough, even the most bitter Opponents of Mr. Modi across parties, they have voiced their anger and condemnation against Pakistan for enacting this attack and they've likened IT to the 2611 attacks in Mumbai.
- [50:35]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's an interesting dynamic because on the one hand, like you said, there's no evidence that's been presented that Pakistan had any direct role in this particular attack. But of course the fact that the organization exists, is armed and is so strong can't be separated from its relationship with Pakistan. So I asked Waqas Ahmed, who is drop side's kind of Pakistan correspondent, for his take from the Pakistani side on what the role of the Pakistan government was in this. And he had, I thought, a pretty nuanced and interesting response. And we recorded this as a pre interview. So let me roll a little bit of this and then get your response to his analysis.
- [51:21]
David Dole
So far India has not presented any official evidence that Pakistan may have backed this terror attack. But interestingly, the Pakistani Interior Minister called for a neutral inquiry into this attack and the Pakistani Defense Minister called on Russia, China or a western country to be a part of these investigations. And that's not normal. Pakistan had actually been trying to get closer to India for the past few years. Pakistan had been abiding by this ceasefire agreement brokered by General Bajwa in 2020. And as you also reported, that Pakistan had been looking the other way as Indian intelligence carried out a string of assassinations inside Pakistan targeting former Kashmiri militants and Sikh activists. So it seems unlikely that Pakistani military will break this ceasefire for nothing. That brings us to the more interesting question. Why is the Pakistani military the primary suspect whenever something happens in India? And that's the core of this issue. There's this dynamic that has existed in between Pakistan and India for a long time. India and Pakistan have used proxy war as a strategy against each other. So automatically, whenever there's an attack in one country, the other country is blamed. And this is a knee jerk reaction at this point. So every time this happens, there's a threat of escalation between these two countries. The problem with this particular conflict is that the escalation ladder goes as far up as nuclear. Hence the only way out of this issue, this threat, this danger to the world is this long standing unresolved dynamic between these two countries must be resolved. But with the far right, borderline fascist government in India with Prime Minister Modi and this totalitarian military regime in Pakistan. It seems impossible that either side has the will or the imagination to resolve this issue once and for all.
- [53:19]
Krystal Ball
So Sid, an interesting point there that on the one hand, Pakistan doesn't immediately it kind of clashes with Pakistan's more recent kind of conciliatory approach to India. Yet at the same time they have been funding these proxy funding and backing these proxy groups for many years. So of course they're the top suspect. What's your response to what you heard from Waqass there?
- [53:40]
David Dole
Waqas is absolutely on point and what he is saying is, and I agree that India has technically not put any evidence on the table, but if you note that the ministers from the Pakistan side of Kashmir, the Pakistani occupied side of Kashmir, they did a press conference right after the Palgam incident and in that you can hear the ministers are on record saying that you can't be funding anti Pakistan activities in Balochistan and then expect your civilians to be safe. For every civilian you kill here, we will make sure we kill Indian civilians. So this very well could be a tit for tat. And may I add here with due caution, because this is only preliminary inputs we are getting. Two of our sources in Pakistan have mentioned that this was, this attack was in retaliation of the Jafar Express hijacking that had happened recently, just a couple of weeks backs in Pakistan. So this is very much true that this proxy war or tit for tat was not a thing between India and Pakistan.
- [54:53]
Krystal Ball
Yeah, it's like they want to have it both ways. Sid Roy, thanks so much for joining us. I'd encourage everybody to go read his piece for dropsite news. Just Google dropsite news and kind of Kashmir. And I think his piece will come up and you'll have a good sense. And if you would have read it when it came out, you would not be surprised that this had just happened. So Sid, thanks so much for your reporting and for joining us.
- [55:13]
David Dole
Thank you.
- [55:16]
Sagar Enjeti
It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilmer's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.
- [55:31]
Krystal Ball
We were still in that place of like, what will this experience become? And you go, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.
- [55:40]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. The big guests continue On Las Culturistas this week, it's the very funny Amy Poehler.
- [55:51]
Krystal Ball
Don't overthink it.
- [55:52]
Sagar Enjeti
They talk water. We did not drink water growing up. Water was not a thing. Parenting, you got teen boys.
- [55:58]
Krystal Ball
This is like the black diamond of parenting.
- [56:00]
Sagar Enjeti
And of course, I don't think so, honey.
- [56:03]
Krystal Ball
Horror movies.
- [56:04]
Sagar Enjeti
Okay, okay. Amy Poehler is on Las Colt. The latest episode is out now listen to Las culturistas on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Camila Ramon, Peloton's first Spanish speaking cycling and tread instructor. I'm an athlete, entrepreneur, and almost most importantly, a pareo enthusiast. And I'm Liz Ortiz, former pro soccer player and Olympian. And like Kami, a parrero enthusiast. Come on. Who is it? Our podcast, Hasta Bajo is where sports, music and fitness collide and we cover it all, the arriba hasta sit downs with real game changers in the sports world like Miami Dolphins CMO Priscilla Shumate, who is redefining what it means to be a Latina leader.
- [56:50]
Krystal Ball
It all changed when I had this.
- [56:52]
Sagar Enjeti
Guy come to me. He said to me, you know, you're not Latina enough. First of all, what is that?
- [56:57]
Krystal Ball
My mouth is wide open.
- [56:58]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, history makers like the Sucard family, who became the first Peruvians to win a Grammy.
- [57:04]
David Dole
It was a very special moment for us.
- [57:07]
Krystal Ball
It's been 15 years for me in this career.
- [57:09]
David Dole
Finally, things are starting to shift into a different level.
- [57:13]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Astavajo on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner.
- [57:22]
John O'Brien
Of iHeart Women's Sports Network.
- [57:25]
Sagar Enjeti
Canadians are headed to the polls today in what has turned out to be an absolutely extraordinary election, which has a lot to do with our own president and his trade war and what's going on there. So to break it all down for. Very happy to be joined by David Dole, who is host of the rational national. His YouTube channel is absolutely blowing up. And it's great to see you, David. Thanks for joining us.
- [57:44]
John O'Brien
Great to be here. Thanks.
- [57:45]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, of course. So let's go ahead and throw this first element up on the screen that just shows the polling trends between the conservative and liberal party. Here you can see the liberals really were down and out. And then suddenly Trump launches this insane trade war and their fortunes changed significantly. So now they go into election day at least somewhat as the favorite here. Just break down for us the contours. Who's running? What are the Dynamics. What accounts for this dramatic shift?
- [58:13]
John O'Brien
Yeah, so the Liberals have been in power since 2015 under Trudeau's Liberals, overtaking a Conservative government at the time, came in with a majority government, have been in power for nine years. And then up until a couple years ago, polling really began to shift post Covid due to the affordability crisis, and I think largely as well, due to people just being tired of having the same people in power, seeing Trudeau every day. And then it got to a point where in December, it was like they were down and out. And Chrystia Freeland, essentially Trudeau's second in command, decided to come out against him and resign from her post as there was about to be a cabinet shuffle, and she didn't want to change her position. So that was sort of the first thing to drop. And then after the New year, Trudeau decided to step down and have a leadership race. So there was a race between Christian Freeland, Mark Carney and a few others. Carney ended up winning that. And ever since. So it was a combination of both Trudeau stepping down and people being tired of him, as well as Trump, and just the ongoing threats, the annex, the threats of annexation, the 51st state governor, Trudeau, all this garbage. So that combination led to this dramatic shift, which I'm reading analysis of the history of Canada and these sorts of elections. There has never been a shift like this this quickly in our history.
- [59:39]
Krystal Ball
And how much of this is the trade war, and how much of this is Trump's 51st state barbs, where at first you're like, ha, ha, that's kind of funny, right? You're, you're joking, right? This is a gag. And it's like, oh, wait, I'm not so sure this is a joke anymore, because if you look at that polling collapse, it predates him even being sworn in. It dates back to him making all of his 51st state jabs. So what's been the response there? And if you had to weight the two things, the tariffs and the trade war and the 51st States stuff, which is kind of more significant, and obviously they blend together in some ways, it's.
- [60:21]
John O'Brien
Really more of the 51st state stuff, the annexation stuff, that, like, the trade war is an issue, but I don't think people are really necessarily feeling it right now, essentially. I mean, you know, there's been so much back and forth on, on the tariffs that it's hard to even know where things currently stand with that. But it's the threats for sure, that where it was just like, you know, Even people that didn't already or didn't like Trump already were sort of surprised, myself included. Like, there wasn't a whole lot of talk of Canada in the U.S. election prior to Trump winning. And all of a sudden, you know, there was. I think there was a comment or two about potential tariffs, but there wasn't much about, you know, 51st state Governor Trudeau, any of this stuff. So that, I think really led to this sort of defense mechanism in Canadians where there's all this national pride that we didn't know we had before that has come out, and we're sort of banding together and deciding that, no, we don't want this and we want somebody in power who's going to be stable. You know, Pierre Poliev, the leader of the Conservative Party for the past two years, as he's been leader, he's been running essentially against Trudeau. And once Trudeau left, he was sort of left scrambling to try to apply his prior arguments against Mark Carney, who is a completely different person, isn't even currently an mp. And it's hard to make the same arguments against him when they. When Trudeau and Carney are different leaders. So Pierre Poliev's inability to really find a. A coherent message, in addition to the fact that he has. He is, you know, far right in terms of Canada, has been endorsed by people like Elon Musk. So when you have those sorts of connections to a Trump administration that is so deeply disliked, it's hasn't helped his case.
- [62:00]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, I'm sure you get the Elon Musk endorsement at this point. You're like, thanks, question mark. To that point, I pulled a Carney ad and I pulled a Poliev ad. Let's go ahead and start with the Puliev ad. And what was notable about this is that he actually doesn't appear in it. So I want to get your reaction to that and the way that he has had to quickly scramble and reorient himself and his campaign. This is F3, guys. Go ahead and play it.
- [62:27]
Krystal Ball
How's your son, David? Well, it's been a tough few years for him. He just can't seem to get ahead. Yeah, we had to pay for Sarah's down payment last year. Things are tough for her, too. You know what Mark Carney says. Come on. Do you really think that a fourth liberal term is going to change anything? You know, I've been thinking the same thing. Are we really going to give these clowns a fourth term? I'm voting Conservative. There you go.
- [62:51]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah.
- [62:52]
Krystal Ball
Through a change.
- [62:55]
Sagar Enjeti
Your reaction to that particular ad, they.
- [62:59]
John O'Brien
Have purposely taken Pierre Poliev out of their ads. So this is not often explored. But even while Trudeau was unpopular, even while the Liberals were really unpopular, if you look at Pierre Poliev's actual numbers, just the approval of him and how people felt about him, they were not, he was not doing well. He was still underwater. So the lack of Liberal support before Carney came in was largely really due to the combination of the affordability crisis and people being tired of Trudeau. It wasn't because people loved Pierre Poliev. So when that became even more clear during this election, essentially last week, last couple weeks of the election, the Conservatives have put out three new ads, all of them not featuring Pierre Poliev, either his face or his voice. So that's the one ad you saw there with the golfing. Another one is former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, you know, saying, I worked with both Carney and Pierre Poliev and I support Pierre Polyev, which of course he is, he's the former Prime Minister as a Conservative. So like the, and then another one's, you know, a few people discussing how, how, how terrible things are, but Pierre Poliev was so unliked that they had to completely remove him from their advertising. And it's just like it goes to how inauthentic Pierre Poliev is. This is another element that people often aren't attuned to is just the fact that Mark Carney is oddly authentic. Even, you know, he's former governor of the bank of Canada, he's a central banker, but he's authentic to that. He's not pretending to be anybody else.
- [64:31]
Sagar Enjeti
He's an authentic as like technocrat liberal banker.
- [64:35]
John O'Brien
He's running as a guy that, that led Canada through the 08 financial crisis and then went to the UK to help the UK through Brexit. He's running as that guy. Whereas Pierre Poliev has a 20 year record in parliament. He's been in parliament for 20 years, 20 year record of fighting against the working class, fighting against labor. And now he's coming out to pretend that he cares about the working class and he's going to make life more affordable. Like, where were you the past 20 years? Like it comes off as so fake that people, even if they don't realize what Pierre Poliev's record is, you can feel it in his speeches and the way he comes off that he's not an authentic individual, does golf, whereas Mark Carney is who he is, does golf.
- [65:12]
Sagar Enjeti
Code different in Canada. Like, I can't imagine a candidate who is trying to like, position themselves as pro working class being like, you know, where I need to go, the driving race.
- [65:20]
Krystal Ball
Even Trump, who loves golf, wouldn't put that in his ad.
- [65:23]
John O'Brien
Yeah, it is odd. Like I think that message there is they're afraid of losing the older vote, which they are. Like, what's kind of been surprising with this election is if you look at the breakdown by age 65 plus is well in support of the Liberals, like it's not even really close, whereas it's really under 35 that has that where the Conservatives have a slight edge. And again, that's really, I think due to the last 10 years of affordability and millennials and Gen Z really being hit by that and not really knowing where to put the blame there. But everybody over 35, big support for, for the Liberals. So the attempt there, I think was really to connect to older voters who have kids who are struggling and people that, you know, can relate to that and think that, yeah, we need change, but like good change or what sort of change are we talking about here? Because if we're looking at actual platforms, Mark Carney has the, I would argue the best housing platform out of all of the parties, even to the ndp, which, you know, are, have no chance at all of, of forming government. But Mark Carney has, has a plan to make or build 500,000 homes per year, essentially start a, a Crown Corp. To overlook all of the, the, the building of the housing and, and doing it in a way where he is focusing on both affordability and prefab housing to essentially be able to build houses at a faster rate. Also focusing on, you know, Canadian lumber and Canadian jobs. So there has been a real focus on investment from the Liberals which I think benefits them in terms of the NDP vote as the ndp. The floor has completely dropped out of the NDP and a lot of those voters have moved to the Liberals, seeing as both a rejection of the Conservatives but also a, you know, supporting what Mark Carney is arguing in addition to the fact that I think Mark Carney comes off as somebody who is a stable leader as opposed to here, polio.
- [67:19]
Krystal Ball
And it's an interesting point because if a central banker told me that he's got a plan to build 500,000 houses a year and he's going to do it, here's the labor supply, here's the wood supply. And he sketched it out like, okay, actually, I trust you could actually probably pull that off. You're not trying to do Something that out of the ordinary here. It's like you're just building houses and you should be able to do it. On the authenticity point, the funniest thing I think I saw in this race was Pierre Poliev getting out and having a press conference. Right after Trump started going after usaid. He held a, I don't know if you remember this, he held a press conference saying that he was going to end all of Canada's foreign aid. It's like, come on. Like the US Is barely doing anything when it comes to foreign aid relative to our spending. Canada stop.
- [68:09]
John O'Brien
And, and now it's half. I guess he's cut that to. Now we're going to cut half of us or half of aid, which is again, there's so many cues from Republicans that Pierre Polya has taken that, you know, have added up to the point where it doesn't, it hasn't benefited him. Like if, if nothing had changed in terms of the, in terms of the Liberal leadership and Trudeau was still running, I think it's very likely you'd be looking at still a conservative majority, maybe at worst a conservative minority. But you have a situation where Pierre Poliev has spent years aligning himself to MAGA and now the chickens are coming home to roost and you have a situation where people really do not want Trump style politics in Canada and he's the face of it. So it's not worked out well for him.
- [68:59]
Sagar Enjeti
Yeah, I would have to think at this point with the, the trade war being so important too, the fact that he's a central banker and has some deep understanding of the bond markets and their impact is affirmative benefit for him as well. But how do you handicap the race, David? I saw the polls have tightened some coming down the stretch, giving Conservatives some hope that they may be able to prevail. What do you think is going to play out or what are the odds of what's going to play out?
- [69:26]
John O'Brien
Based on everything I'm reading, it's really appearing to be a liberal majority. At worst a liberal minority. And it's important to note that, that even if the Conservatives had a slight lead in the overall vote in polling, they still likely would not be able to win a minority government. Just the way that the seats play out and how the Conservative vote tends to be concentrated. So the cons would really need, you know, several point advantage in polls to be able to be in a situation where they're going to form government and they're just not anywhere near that right now. Now, of course, we've seen polling be a little off in the past, but Canadian polling tends to be fairly accurate. So I'm really, it'll be curious to see how it holds up this time. As you know, you could argue maybe there's sort of this hidden Conservative vote that we've seen in the US and maybe that's going to come out this time in Canada. But the way things look right now, Liberals should be pretty confident that they're going to be able to form government.
- [70:21]
Krystal Ball
Let's finish with a Mark Carney ad to see kind of what his message is. Let's roll that here.
- [70:26]
John O'Brien
No.
- [70:27]
Krystal Ball
People are anxious right now. President Trump has created a crisis. Pressures react to the sweeping tariffs. Well, I've led people through crises my entire career. I've worked with prime ministers from both parties to solve big problems for Canadians. And right now, we're facing the biggest crisis of our lifetimes and we need serious leadership and a real plan. Is that pretty representative of what his approach has been throughout this short campaign?
- [70:57]
John O'Brien
Yeah, stability, leadership. And he's been benefited as well by people like Premier Doug Ford in Ontario, who is a Conservative. I mean, he's the head of the Progressive Conservatives. I know that's a confusing term for Americans to hear, but he is a Conservative. And countless scandals. I've been many videos about how terrible Doug Ford is. But he's somebody who is able to read the room and has been very forward in being very, you know, against Trump, has been on all, you know, US Networks discussing some of him here. Yeah, yeah. His approach. So, and he, he's not endorsed poiev. He's, he's kind of stayed out of the race. He's, he's somebody who, you know, him and Poliev don't really have much of a relationship. So the fact that Ontario is so important in the election and he doesn't have the support of Doug Ford in any capacity, I think has hurt him as well.
- [71:48]
Sagar Enjeti
Interesting. All right, David Dole, everybody. Go subscribe to David's channel. And I'm sure you'll be covering whatever happens with the Canadian elections today. So thanks so much for breaking it all down for us.
- [71:58]
John O'Brien
Thanks for having me.
- [71:59]
Sagar Enjeti
All right, guys, thank you so much for watching. We are going to do an AMA Live for premium subscribers. So if you want to be part of that, breakingpoints.com if you cannot subscribe and become a premium member right now, just make sure, like, share, subscribe, all those things really, really help us out a lot. Thank you guys so much for watching. We'll see you back here tomorrow. It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilmer's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.
- [72:45]
Krystal Ball
We were still in that place of like, what will this experience become? And you go, you're having the best time, but it was like such a perfect golden time.
- [72:53]
Sagar Enjeti
Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [72:59]
John O'Brien
If money is a taboo topic and nobody wants to talk about it, how.
- [73:02]
Krystal Ball
Can we be educated on something we're unwilling to talk about? April is Financial Literacy Month and Black.
- [73:07]
John O'Brien
Tech Green Money is where culture meets capital.
- [73:09]
Krystal Ball
Each week I sit down with black entrepreneurs and leaders to share their blueprint.
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John O'Brien
For building generational wealth through tech innovation and ownership.
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Krystal Ball
Once we know more, we can have more. One thing we tell our clients is.
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John O'Brien
The more that you learn, the more that you earn.
- [73:22]
Krystal Ball
But you have to be willing to learn to hear this and more game changing insight. Listen to Black Tech Green Money on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever.
- [73:30]
John O'Brien
You get your podcast. 70% of Americans are living from paycheck to paycheck. Not black people, not brown people, everybody. And whether you're black, red, brown or yellow, you want to see some more green. Can I get an amen? Hey, this is Financial Literacy Awareness Month. Tune in to Money and Wealth with John O'Brien, a podcast that breaks down financial freedom in a way that's real, relatable and rooted in empowerment. From rebuilding your credit to starting your wealth journey, I give you all the tools to rise. I'm going to break down how the modern economy works. This is what they never taught you in school. You're not dumb and you're not stupid. It's what you don't know that you don't know is killing you, but you think you know. To hear this in more practical wisdom, open your free iHeartRadio app, search money and wealth with John O'Brien and start listening today.