4/28/25: Trump 100 Day Approval Tanks, MAGA Cope Over Market Crash, Shein Prices Skyrocket

Summary

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Episode: "Trump 100 Day Approval Tanks, MAGA Cope Over Market Crash, Shein Prices Skyrocket"
Release Date: April 28, 2025

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Introduction

In this pivotal episode of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti delve deep into the tumultuous first 100 days of Donald Trump's administration. The discussion spans a broad spectrum of pressing issues, including Trump's declining approval ratings, the ramifications of the ongoing trade war, the surge in prices from retailers like Shein, and the alarming developments in immigration and international relations.

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Trump's 100-Day Approval Ratings

Key Points:

• Steady Decline: Multiple poll aggregations indicate a consistent downward trend in Trump's approval ratings over his first 100 days, reminiscent of his initial unpopular reception during his first term.
• Issue-Specific Disapproval: Immigration remains a significant Achilles' heel, with policies leading to wrongful deportations and human rights concerns further eroding support.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal (07:03): "The honeymoon is over. This looks very much like the Trump polling that we saw in his first term."
• Saagar (09:15): "People voted for this basket of issues, but when those policies start hurting their material well-being, their support wanes."

Insights:

• The administration's aggressive stance on tariffs and immigration, while initially garnering support, is now backfiring as the immediate economic and social repercussions become palpable to the average American.
• Comparisons to Ronald Reagan highlight potential paths forward, but current data suggests that Trump's approach may not yield the desired political resilience.

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Trade War and Economic Impact

Key Points:

• Tariffs and Supply Chain Disruptions: The imposition of steep tariffs has led to significant drops in shipping traffic, especially at west coast ports, causing widespread congestion and delays in the supply chain.
• Price Hikes: Retailers like Shein are responding to increased costs by hiking prices drastically—up to 377% on select items—leading to consumer frustration and decreased purchasing power.
• Bond Market Volatility: Treasury markets are experiencing unprecedented volatility, putting the U.S. dollar and its status as the global reserve currency at risk.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal (37:12): "How much do prices have to go up before you say, this is not that great."
• Saagar (66:27): "We are eroding that brand right now. It can take a very long time to remove the tarnish on a brand."

Insights:

• The administration's reliance on tariffs as a primary tool for economic strategy lacks a comprehensive plan, leading to cascading effects across various sectors.
• The disruption in supply chains not only affects consumer goods but also has long-term implications for manufacturing and employment in the U.S.
• The weakening of the American brand in global markets could have lasting detrimental effects on international trade relations and economic stability.

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Immigration Policies and Public Perception

Key Points:

• Deportation Practices: The administration's harsh immigration policies have led to the wrongful deportation of U.S. citizen children, including those with severe health conditions.
• Public Opinion Shift: A significant portion of the population, especially independents, are turning against the administration's immigration stance, viewing it as inhumane and unjust.
• Internal Criticism: Figures within Trump's circle, like Candace Owens, are beginning to express doubts about the administration's approach, signaling cracks in the once-unified support base.

Notable Quotes:

• Saagar (14:08): "Immigration was the top issue. His policies are inflationary and have significantly damaged his approval ratings."
• Krystal (56:17): "If you’re focusing on these cases where you actually made a mistake, the administration doubled down and public opinion is shifting."

Insights:

• The administration's inability to effectively manage immigration without causing collateral damage has alienated a broad swath of voters.
• The wrongful deportations serve as a catalyst for public backlash, challenging the narrative that strong immigration policies are inherently popular.
• Internal dissent within Trump’s ranks reflects a growing concern over the sustainability of current policies and their impact on the administration’s longevity.

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Foreign Policy Concerns

Key Points:

• Israel-Palestine Conflict: Netanyahu's refusal to accept an Iran nuclear deal unless Iran's civilian program is obliterated has exacerbated tensions, with mass casualties and humanitarian crises unfolding in Gaza.
• India-Pakistan Tensions: Rising tensions between these nuclear-armed neighbors could potentially escalate into war, posing a significant threat to global stability.
• U.S. Involvement: The administration's handling of international conflicts is under scrutiny, with critiques pointing to a lack of coherent strategy and overreliance on aggressive posturing.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal (06:43): "The food and aid remains blocked. The Trump administration does not appear to be applying any pressure to allow that food aid in."
• Saagar (47:53): "Trump can end wars with a tweet, but he chooses not to, causing ongoing conflicts and undermining his credibility."

Insights:

• The administration's foreign policy is marked by aggressive tactics that, rather than resolving conflicts, often deepen them and create humanitarian disasters.
• The potential for nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan remains a critical concern, highlighting the need for diplomatic interventions.
• Trump's inconsistent and reactive approach to international crises diminishes the U.S.'s role as a stabilizing global power.

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Market Crash and Consumer Impact

Key Points:

• Stock Market Volatility: The crash has led to significant losses in consumer portfolios, with many supporters remaining unfazed but increasingly skeptical as personal financial situations worsen.
• Retail Sector Struggles: Brands like Shein and major retailers are grappling with inventory shortages and soaring prices, directly impacting consumer purchasing behavior.
• Economic Confidence: A substantial majority of the population anticipates a recession, further eroding confidence in the administration's economic policies.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal (37:34): "Shein prices are starting to hit consumers hard, with some products seeing price hikes of over 300%."
• Saagar (43:51): "72% of people expect a recession, and the majority believe Trump is driving us into it."

Insights:

• The intertwined nature of trade policies and market dynamics has led to a precarious economic environment, where consumer trust is swiftly eroding.
• The administration's lack of proactive measures to stabilize the market is exacerbating fears of a prolonged recession.
• Retailers' inability to maintain inventory underscores the real-world consequences of aggressive trade tactics, highlighting the disconnect between policy and consumer well-being.

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Critique of Administration's Strategic Decisions

Key Points:

• Lack of Legislative Progress: Trump's focus on executive orders and unilateral actions has stymied meaningful legislative advancements, particularly concerning immigration and trade reforms.
• Insular Decision-Making: The administration operates within a tight ideological bubble, limiting internal criticism and external feedback, which hampers effective governance.
• Economic Mismanagement: The reckless implementation of tariffs without corresponding industrial policies has undermined efforts to rejuvenate American manufacturing sectors.

Notable Quotes:

• Krystal (30:03): "The administration is isolated from external feedback, making it difficult to adjust policies that are proving unpopular."
• Saagar (73:29): "We were actually rebuilding American manufacturing under Biden, and now Trump's trade war is undoing that progress."

Insights:

• The administration's insularity is a critical flaw, preventing adaptive strategies that could mitigate the adverse effects of their policies.
• The failure to collaborate with Congress limits the scope and effectiveness of policy implementation, leading to fragmented and counterproductive outcomes.
• The disregard for established economic principles in favor of ideological pursuits is causing significant setbacks in key sectors, threatening long-term economic resilience.

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International Repercussions

Key Points:

• Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Massive delays and congestion at ports have led to a backlog of shipping containers, further straining international trade relations.
• Competitive Disadvantages: Other countries are capitalizing on the U.S.'s supply chain woes by attracting businesses displaced by tariffs, potentially diminishing America's manufacturing dominance.
• Erosion of Global Trust: The weakening of the American brand is diminishing global trust in U.S. economic and political leadership, posing challenges for future international collaborations.

Notable Quotes:

• Saagar (60:28): "We are in for troubling times ahead as the supply chain remains severely disrupted."
• Krystal (66:27): "The American brand is at risk, and rebuilding it will take decades of consistent effort."

Insights:

• The administration's aggressive trade policies are not only disrupting domestic markets but also eroding the U.S.'s competitive edge on the global stage.
• The shift of manufacturing operations to other countries could result in a long-term decline in American industrial prowess.
• Restoring global trust requires a fundamental reevaluation of trade strategies and a commitment to sustainable economic policies.

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Conclusion

The first 100 days of Trump's administration have been marked by significant policy shifts that are having profound and often detrimental effects on the U.S. economy, international relations, and domestic social fabric. Declining approval ratings, aggressive trade wars, flawed immigration policies, and a fractured foreign policy approach underscore the challenges facing the administration. As the episode concludes, Krystal and Saagar emphasize the urgent need for coherent and humane policies that prioritize both economic stability and social justice, warning of the long-term consequences if current trajectories are maintained.

Final Quotes:

• Krystal (57:34): "These first 100 days have set a precedent that's difficult to reverse, but the American people deserve a leadership that listens and adapts."
• Saagar (75:44): "Without a solid plan, the administration's actions are not only harmful in the short term but will have lasting repercussions for generations to come."

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Notable Highlights with Timestamps

• 07:03 - Introduction to Trump's 100-day performance and initial polling data.
• 14:08 - Discussion on how Trump's inflationary policies are damaging his approval ratings.
• 37:12 - Highlighting Shein's drastic price hikes as a direct consequence of tariffs.
• 47:53 - Exploration of Trump's foreign policy missteps, particularly regarding Israel and Gaza.
• 56:17 - Public backlash against immigration policies solidifying, with high-profile dissenters emerging.
• 73:29 - Critique of administration's dismantling of Biden-era manufacturing advancements.

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This comprehensive analysis underscores the multifaceted challenges of Trump's early administration, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the current political and economic landscape.

Transcript

[Dutch Representative]

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[Wilmer Valderrama]

It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilbur's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.

[Topher Grace]

We were still in that place of.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Like, what will this experience become?

[Topher Grace]

And you go, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

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[Topher Grace]

Hey guys, Sagar and Krystal here.

[Sagar Enjeti]

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[Topher Grace]

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Hope to see [e-mail] Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have the incredible Ryan Grimm in this morning. First, Sagar and Jetty. Great to have you, Ryan.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Left wing Populist takeover.

[Sagar Enjeti]

That's right. Actually, we are going to have Emily join us though so that we can reflect on Trump 100 days and not have total left wing Trump derangement syndrome over here.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

So get our snark in now before Emily shows up.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, exactly. And for those of you who are wondering, baby is not coming yet that we know of at least this morning. But Sager is having to deal with a few things there. So he'll be in later this week, assuming that, you know, hold in place.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

A lot of appointments the last week or two.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Indeed. Yeah. Lot going on, so. Also a lot going on in the world. We are gonna dig into all of the polling that has come out with regards to where Trump is as he hits 100 days this week, both on the top line numbers, where he is economic, the way things have moved, even on issues like immigration, how his own supporters are thinking about the first hundred days. We're gonna take a look, of course, at the latest with the trade war. Sheehan prices are up and shipping traffic is way, way down. So, you know, Americans starting to feel the pain at places like Temu and Shein, see how that reaction goes. We wanted to cover some of the things that have happened with regard to immigration and deportations. That Wisconsin judge was arrested last week. There's also some additional things that we've learned. ICE having deported several US citizen children as young as 1, 2, 4 years old, one of them suffering from cancer. So we'll dig into that. We also have Bernie clapping back at Alissa Slotkin and Justice Democrats revealing their first candidate this cycle, something Ryan had sort of exclusive access to or early access to. So we'll talk a little bit about that. We also have a bit of an international flair in the show today. This is also partly because Ryan is here and he has done such incredible reporting in Pakistan. But also this is an incredibly important story for everyone. India and Pakistan inching closer to potentially a war. Both of them, of course, nuclear armed superpowers. That is certainly something we want to keep our eye in on. And Canadians going to the polls today as well. So we're going to have David Dole join us to break down the twists and turns in that race which has been really centered around our own president here, Trump.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yeah, and for the India Pakistan story, we'll have Siddhartha Roy, who wrote a really prescient investigative piece for us about Jamu and Kashmir a couple weeks ago at drop site. And we'll also have. I pre interviewed Waqa Sakmed, who a lot of you know, as our terrific Pakistani reporter who's here in exile in the United States just to talk about whether or not we're going to get a nuclear war out of this, but.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Before it seems like an important discussion.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yeah, I think that's rather important. Yeah. Before we start on that, because we won't have time to talk about the latest updates in Israel, Palestine over the weekend. The murder spree has just gotten out of control and people in Gaza are saying that, and it's easy to get cynical about this, but people in Gaza are saying that the amount of slaughter is at a scale unlike it's been previously. I think 53 people killed on Saturday, more than 50 killed on Sunday, just 17 killed overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile, Netanyahu gave a speech where he insisted that Israel will not accept an Iran nuclear deal unless there's a complete obliteration of Iran's civilian peaceful nuclear program. It's like this is a U. S. Iran nuclear deal.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

It's so like.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, we'd like to, we'd like to pretend it is anyway.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yes.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Who would like to imagine that it is?

[Freddie Rodriguez]

So, but the question is, can he actually bomb Iran without US Support? And according to Tulsi Gabbard and Michael Waltz and all these other intelligence officials, no, they can't successfully pull it off. So it actually isn't up to him.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, well, we were talking before the show, Shaile Ben Ephraim, who we've described as a liberal Zionist and had on this show, he has been slowly sort of evolving in his views and he even just now came out and said, listen, it's undeniable, it's a genocide. And basically what tipped him over, and personally, I think at this point, there's no real serious debate that you can have about whether or not it's a genocide. And what tipped him over in particular is here they are just outright starving. However many people are left in the Gaza Strip, you now have dozens of people who have already died of starvation. We know Abu Bakr was suffering malnutrition. I'm sure there are so many people in Gaza, potentially basically everyone.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Suffering from malnutrition at this point. You know, the food and the aid remains blocked. The Trump administration does not appear to be applying any pressure regardless of what their State Department spokesperson may say in order to allow that food aid in. And so, I mean, the clock is ticking on, you know, an escalated extermination campaign. And that's where we are right now.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yep.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So. All right. Well, with that grim update, no pun intended, out of the way, want to go ahead and get to the very latest with regards to where the Trump administration is at this morning. And as we said, we have a special guest joining us to help us understand what has happened in this first hundred days and how the public feels about it. And that is our own Emily Jasinski. All right, guys, the Trump administration officially hits 100 days this week. I think we have a fancy graphic we can put up on the screen there with the count, count up, I guess to 100 days. I think we're officially at what, 98 today or something like that. But all of the polling outfits, 99, 100 days. All of the polling outfits have done their official, you know, 100 days. Where's he at? Digging into the top line numbers also where he is on an issue by issue basis. So let's go ahead and put up on the screen this graphic that we made with all of the different outlets and where they see his approval at this point. Just a note, the one on the end there, that's the Harvard Kennedy school. That's just 18 to 29 year olds. So that's why the numbers there look a little different. But very noteworthy among that age demographic, which had been sold as really shifting to the right and of course voted for Trump in more significant numbers than young people had voted for previous Republican candidates in the past, including Donald Trump himself in 2016. But I mean, overall, the picture here is not a pretty one if you are the current president of the United States. I think the best ratings you've got there are about 11 points underwater. You've got him dipping into the 30s in at least one of these polls. All of them seem to be clustered around low 40s in terms of the approval rate really effectively. Emily, I think at this point you can say pretty officially the honeymoon is over. This looks very much like Trump polling that we saw in the first term. And he came into this office with, for him, fairly positive approval rating. It was roughly around 50, 50. Even had a little bit of an edge above water in some of the polls early in his term. Now, with a combination of tariffs and even things that had previously been strong points for him like immigration going sideways and receiving net negative approval ratings, he is left in a position of unpopularity which is one that he will be familiar with from the past.

[Topher Grace]

Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, first of all, that graphic is so helpful and incredible. I like that we're now aggregating the poll aggregation politics in New York Times. But what's particularly bad news for this administration is that those numbers are not like new dips. If you go and look at these charts, what they reflect is an X. It's almost. You could map the real clear politics aggregation onto New York Times aggregation. Somewhere around March 10th, 11th, Trump crosses the 48% approved disapprove sort of watermark and then keeps moving in the other direction. So he starts above water and is dipping and then he starts his, his disapproved start to go up as the approved start to go down. So this is, that sounds very obvious, but the point is this is a steady trend over the first 100 days of decline. And Crystal, before we got going, you sent a chart that was also really interesting which aggregated Trump's polling numbers on particular issues. Basically, the only one that he is remaining at a decent level on is immig and even that he is below water. Now, the only other thing I'll add is people in the administration are hearing a lot and we've talked about this on the show about Ronald Reagan in 1981, that Ronald Reagan was able, able to weather a recession and all of the political consequences that came with Paul Volcker and the shock and win re election by 1984, even though the economy hadn't arguably quote, unquote recovered. That is what this administration granted, Trump doesn't have to run again, although God knows he may, but he's the second term president so you expect to see a little bit more thicker skin to public reaction. But in this case, they're also really hoping that they're able to like land the plane at some point when it comes to the politics of public opinion that right now what they're doing is dramatic shock. They had the mandate and so they're shocking the country not just on tariffs, but on everything. But the numbers are not reflecting a positive, obviously political reaction to any of that.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Man, I'm really sorry to hear that because I was wondering too that whether or not they were starting to think of Reagan in his first term and think like, you know what, okay, yeah, we are actually going to drive the economy into recession, but that's okay because Reagan did it too. Now, of course, in 82, Democrats had this massive wave and then, yes, then there was a giant landslide that reelected Reagan in 1984. The difference, of course, is that Reagan was elected, you could argue, to do something about runaway stagflation and inflation. And in combination with Volcker, I don't think he was totally happy with everything Volcker was doing. But in combination with Volcker, that was aimed at addressing something that voters did say that they were upset about. Now, voters have said that they're upset about the collapse of manufacturing over the last 50 years and the hollowing out of the middle class. And we talk a lot on this show about how at least Trump was acknowledging that concern, and the proxy for that acknowledgement was him talking about tariffs. But then when he comes in and does it this way and drives the country into recession, it's not exactly what people were hoping was going to happen. And so a lot of the conversation seems to be like, did people vote for this or not? Like, is this what people had in mind? Let's put up Nate Silver. And this is one more chart that suggests no, like, this is not exactly how people felt like this was going to go. So how are people squaring that? Are they really saying to themselves, eh, all right, we can actually blow the economy up because Reagan did and Reagan was fine. And he was fine. That's right. If that's your model, you're like, yeah, you actually can survive.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And just to. Before you grab that question, Emily, one thing to add to that is it's the polar opposite. People voted. The number one thing they said is we want inflation to, you know, to come down.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yes.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And Trump's like, how about price increases? So, you know, I'm sure. I also think in some ways I find the question of, like, you know, is this what people voted for or not to be a little bit silly. Because, you know, voters, like, there's a whole basket of things that go into their vote. I think to think of it as like, you know, here's my checklist, and this is specifically the issues on which I am voting is just not a realistic assessment of how most voters go about casting their ballot. So I find the question itself to be a little bit silly. But to the extent that people were casting a ballot on one issue in particular, inflation was certainly among the top, if not the top, issue. And instead, not just on tariffs, but on, you know, on the immigration policy as well. These are inflationary policies that are almost certain to raise prices significantly, at least in the short term.

[Topher Grace]

The Ryan grim voter checklist is whether the Eagles will actually show up at the White House if they win the Super Bowl. No I think that's true. And the other thing I think could be happening here is because the tariffs were such a dramatic. I mean, this administration has been doing all kinds of like generational projects of the conservative movement that are dramatic. And you know, conservatives will quibble with the process even though Trump is sort of finally handing to them on a silver platter what they've been asking some Republican president to do for decades and decades. So a lot of this is dramatic, it is radical and people would say that, but the tariffs in particular, because the markets and the sort of material effects on people's conditions, they are going to be remembered as the thing that maybe changed the trajectory of public opinion on Trump. But actually what we've seen in these charts, and you can, you can see it if we put the last one back up again, the Nate Silver one, the thing that's an X and the X starts to happen before Liberation Day. It's right around like March 10th, March 11th. That's New York Times has it at March 10th. The Real Clear politics one has it around the same time. So that's before Liberation Day. This trend was happening for Trump very steadily before.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Look at Liberation Day. Yeah, yeah. And so April 1st line there, right?

[Topher Grace]

Yeah. The gap opens up definitely around Liberation Day. But the point I'm trying to make basically is that the group of people who are independents, who aren't hardcore core partisans, who showed up and voted for Donald Trump because of inflation or because of immigration, frankly, that's the group of people that probably is looking around and saying, I voted against Joe Biden. I thought Trump would make the economy better. I thought that he would be the only one who had the sort of political guts to take care of what they saw as a wildly out of control immigration system. And they're looking around now and they're like, okay, so those deportations don't seem to be going well. Whether you're from the left or the right, maybe you even want master deportations. And you're like, well that, that doesn't mean sending people to seekot. And on top of that, the market has been in flux. There's precarity, uncertainty, layoffs. So you can see how that one, two punch is catching up with Donald Trump, with that group of voters who's not the partisan left or the partisan anti Trump or the partisan pro Trump.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I think you make an important point, Emily, which is I do think the tariffs are the most unpopular and they're so dramatic and they directly impact people's material well being. And you have huge Numbers that say, my personal financial situation right now is getting worse. You have majorities who say, I expect it to get even worse over the coming years. People are expecting price hikes. I do think that probably in terms of the souring of public opinion is the most important thing. But I also do think the fact that he has taken on so much water on what had previously been his most popular issue, which is immigration, because there was so much conversation about these, the horrific deportations to Seekat and the just total erasure of any sort of due process, the revelations that they can't really produce evidence that any of these people, so far that we've learned about who were sent there were actual hardened gang members. And then specifically the conversation around Kilmar, Abrego, Garcia. And if you poll people on the handling there, I mean, it's a landslide in the direction of this should not have been done and this man should not be disappeared, and they should bring him back, et cetera. I do think that bringing him underwater on even his most popular issue has also been an important part of the acceleration in his favorability decline. And so we look at that like April 1st demarcation. That's liberation Day. But April is also when we start to really focus in on some of these stories around immigration that people are frankly horrified by.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Let's put up a five while Emily answers there.

[Topher Grace]

Yeah, this is quite an interesting chart to look at. And I think that's an important point because this administration is steeling themselves and they sort of know, and they went in, they had this totally contradictory narrative. On the one hand, they had a mandate. On the other hand, handling that mandate could be pretty unpopular. And Trump is having historically a shorter honeymoon than other presidents. So some of these trends we're talking about are totally normal. You know, they start pretty high and then steadily decline throughout your presidency. We're talking about a steady decline over the first 100 days, not the entire presidency. And so, to some extent, the Trump administration and people involved in this steeled themselves because they knew they were about to do some pretty dramatic policy changes. And on the other hand, I don't know that the public thought that the drama would go beyond, you know, these kind of common sense policies on immigration or common sense handling of the economy. And I'm saying that, you know, regardless of whatever particular policy, that Donald Trump is the alternative to Joe Biden, because he has this, like, in the minds of some voters, he's not the guy who was responsible or oversaw the inflation or oversaw the big immigration numbers. And so Trump will look around and say, I'm cleaning up Joe Biden's mess. But what happens now is Donald Trump and Republicans are just consistently betting on Democrats being even less popular than they are. This is a trend of the Trump era that Donald Trump is so polarizing that they just need basically like a second term Joe Biden or they need someone who is as uniquely unpopular as Hillary Clinton. That's their only path to the White House in the Trump era. As long as Trump dominates politics because he is so polarizing. And to some extent that becomes a bubble, right? Because you lose the will to recapture significant swaths of the public.

[Dutch Representative]

Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24. 7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilmer's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.

[Topher Grace]

We were still in that place of.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Like, what will this experience become?

[Topher Grace]

And you go, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The big guests continue on Las Culturistas. This week, it's the very funny Amy Poehler.

[Topher Grace]

Don't overthink it.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

They talk. Water. We did not drink water growing up. Water was not a thing. Parenting, you got teen boys. This is like the black diamond of parenting. And of course, I don't think so, honey. Horror movies. Okay, okay.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Amy Poehler is on Las Culture.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

The latest episode is out now. Listen to Las culturistas on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

I can understand why so much of the public didn't expect Trump to make these kinds of moves when it came to immigration because I think back to Emily. Remember that zero hedge debate that we hosted on immigration? It was Robbie Suave and like the libertarian presidential nominee on one side against what Jack Posobiek and some other.

[Topher Grace]

Brian Gredeski, Brian Gardesky.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

He's like far, far right dudes. And I remember being surprised myself at, like, how bonkers they were. They're like, we need to go to war with the cartels. We need to deploy the army in American cities. And I knew that those views were out there, but I'm like, oh, these are fairly influential people who will have the ear of even more influential people, like Stephen Miller if Trump wins. And so. So despite doing news shows basically every day, I hadn't quite absorbed how committed and how radical they were until, I think, until that debate. And so then seeing them actually execute it, it's not surprising that the public is recoiling. But I'm curious, as you talk to people in that universe, do they feel chastened at all, or are they more like Stephen Miller was over the weekend and giving. I don't know if you guys saw this rant he gave where he's like, we need to get these Communists off the court. And if you think that they're gonna stand in the way of President Trump getting the terrorists out of your neighborhood, you've got another thing coming. He was just full on maniacally. We're full steam ahead on this. So are they checking themselves at all based on these numbers, or is it. No, this is our shot to carry out a revolution, and we're gonna do it.

[Topher Grace]

The Stephen Miller clip is very representative. The one that you're just referencing is very representative. And Ryan, Well, I mean, so this. This hardened core absolutely is. I remember Ryan walking out of that debate and just, like, taking a deep breath and being like, holy shit, even.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

You were surprised by, like, yeah, it was a lot.

[Topher Grace]

It was a lot. But, you know, I think that's exactly what we're talking about here, is that the Trump administration felt it had the wind at its back with the public on immigration and on the economy, to the extent where they said this is generational opportunity to take dramatic steps, corrective steps, in their mind, that further the broader conservative politics, broader conservative project, which is pushing back on a century of, as they see, like, Wilsonian administrative sprawl. And so they right now feel as though, because the public gave them this permission, that this is exactly like that. And to some extent, this is going to be controversial. They're kind of right, right. Like, if the alternative, if the alternative is totally open borders, as people see it. As people see it, or Stephen Miller, some people are still going to be siding with Stephen Miller in the public, because the other policy is so awful. And that's what gives them this idea that they can keep digging further and further, pushing further and further. And that's obviously where you end up alienating the public because at some point the policies of the Democrats are not that bad compared to sending people to seekot. So they are like that because this is the hardened core who now feels like they have been vindicated. They are absolutely riding high. They are feeling like they should be dunking on reporters left and right every single day and they're ready to do battle. And I think that that may come back, I shouldn't say may, that will come back to bite them. Because the public, you have to be able to sort of absorb where the public is, if that's part of your goal.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Well, I mean, this relates to actually the other conversation we were having before the start, which is this revelation of these, you know, signal chat groups. Chatham House, Ben Smith did the reporting and you've got David Sachs and Tucker Carlson and all these right wing media figures and all these right wing tech billionaires all inside of this chat group. And basically David Sacks sort of threw a fit about some of them having, quote, unquote, Trump derangement syndrome and exited the chat. But to me, that's emblematic, first of all, of how captured right wing, quote unquote, independent media is that they're just propagating these narratives that are being fed to them directly by billionaires. But in addition, it's also emblematic to me of what a increasingly tight bubble they are keeping themselves in. So, and that has been kind of, you know, an intentional project of Trump 2.0 is if there's anyone out there that even may disagree on anything we're doing, we don't want anything to do with them. And you pointed that out, Emily, with regard to the trade agenda. You don't have Bob Lighthizer in there anymore. You've got Peter Navarro, right, Because Lighthizer is, you know, yes, he's a protectionist, but this is, you know, someone who has his own ideas about things and things and is intellectual and will go about this in like some sort of an intentional way potentially. And instead you have Navarro, who's fresh out of prison and who is an absolute ideologue, unmovable ideologue, driving the train with regard to tariffs alongside, you know, Trump himself. That seems to be the one part of the agenda that Trump himself is really taking ownership of. Meanwhile, I think the whole immigration portfolio and foreign policy apparently too, has been outsourced to Stephen Miller. So you have these and Then all the Doge piece, whatever that was of course outsourced to Elon Musk. So you have sort of these incredibly ideological off the rails type figures who are completely managing whatever their ideological hobby horse is. And as I said, the whole intent of Trump 2.0 is to make sure that there is no one in the room who's going to say, this is a bad idea, this is illegal, this is unconstitutional, I'm not gonna do this, I'm gonna resign. That has been a concerted effort to make sure that's the case. And so, yeah, they're in a complete and total bubble. And I think they also, they feel like, well, the pollsters were wrong about us before and the economists were wrong before. And so there's no external feedback that is going to really move us off of whatever our wild ideological project happens to be.

[Topher Grace]

I think that's a really good point. That because there's such limited trust in media feedback, perhaps reasonably so, on that point, and polling that people don't, they're like, well, what we're doing is popular. You know, this is exactly what everyone voted for. So yes, we are going to keep sending alleged Ms. 13 people to El Salvador. But on that point, this is, this is really interesting what you said, Crystal, because I think about even the fact that Peter Navarro was in prison and how that changed. This second Trump administration, after all of the investigations and escalations in the lawfare, it's like they are applying these litmus tests for loyalty that from just a pure, like, management standpoint, if this were not the United States of America, but some type of corporation, you would be like, okay, what you're doing here, maybe there's some management logic to it because the litmus test is saying you are not countersignaling. This is, you know, to the point that like they've executed or not executed, excluded, not executed yet, but excluded people from the circle that are critical, they see that as counter signaling. And their litmus test is total loyalty. Because if you don't pass that litmus test, you're a potential vulnerability in the ministry, the administration. You're a potential squeaky wheel. You're the potential, you know, Cassidy was Cassidy Hutchinson, who or whatever the other girl was who came out in the January six hearings. Liz Cheney, by the way, was someone who was really close with Trump Circles and Trump 1.0, you're the squeaky wheel that can get us in trouble down the road. And so because of that, they've really purged people who are willing to be internal critics because that's. You don't pass the litmus test. And when there's that genuine hesitation to criticize internally, even the trajectory, then you end up with a chilling effect, and you end up with everyone just hopping on the bandwagon of every idea that Stephen Miller has or that Donald Trump, frankly has.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

What I also found interesting about this first hundred days is what Trump didn't do, which is basically pass anything through Congress. He did the Lake and Riley act in the first couple of days, which is Democrats just gave him whatever they wanted when it came to immigration because they were really on their. On their heels. But since then, it's probably been the least productive kind of. It's definitely been the least productive first hundred days of any new president who controlled Congress in, like, modern, you know, in memory. Instead, he's focused on executive orders, and he's focused on kind of concentrating power in the executive by going after law firms, going after, you know, gutting, trying to gut universities, you know, rounding up students, the trade war, things that he can do on his own, and then having his. Having his top administration officials complain that the laws are such that they get in the way of him being able to do it legally. Like this J.D. vance saying, look, what do you want us to do? You know, all these people came in and now it's really cumbersome to get them out. Meanwhile, of course, though, there is progress being made legislatively. You know, the reconciliation package is moving, the budget continues to move. Are you impressed by what you've seen moving through Congress? And do you think he's going to be able to, like, in the longer run, get this reconciliation bill, the tax cut bill, through and divert, you know, he's trying to divert tens or maybe even hundreds of billions of dollars over to ICE. Their current budget is something like 9 billion. He wants to put that up somewhere between 300 and 500, which is silly. They don't have the capacity to spend that amount of money. The point is they would have more money, and money would be no object for what they're trying to accomplish. Do you think that they're sufficiently committed to that that they're going to get some of these things done?

[Topher Grace]

This is a really quiet source of tension on the right because a lot of people who are sort of architects of unitary executive theory, which is where this administration has spent the bulk of its first 100 days focus, meaning they're trying to retake power that they feel has been wrongly delegated to bureaucrats and the administrative agencies that people who support that also say that's going to require a lot of codification through Congress. You can't just do this. We've seen this come up in certain court cases time and again, that this has to be done through Congress. If you want to get rid of USAID or the Department of Education, you can't do it with an executive order. You can't just dismantle the agency. You can dismantle it in certain ways, but ultimately you have to to pass an act through Congress. And they're all pretty, I mean, everyone you talk to in Trump circles is pretty sure the midterms are not going to go well for them, that they're probably going to lose the House. And that's where it's sort of 2025 is such a different year than before Congress got sclerotic and did absolutely nothing. That's downstream of our politics. We could probably talk about Newt Gingrich for a long time and how that came to pass. But the point is, I mean, this should be a robust legislative agenda that they should be able to be whipping up bills and getting them Congress, not. They don't even have to be big like omnibus type bills. But they can't because they're stuck on these stupid budget battles and because so much of the energy right now is in taking power back from the executive branch that they can't even augment that with, you know, article one type of activity. So I think there's actually going to be a bigger tension in the next 100 days of the Trump administration because a whole lot of the people who are the policy architects here are going to want to see stuff go through Congress before the midterms.

[Dutch Representative]

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[Wilmer Valderrama]

It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilmer's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.

[Topher Grace]

We were still in that place of.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Like, what will this experience become and.

[Topher Grace]

You go, you're having the best time. But it was like such, such a perfect golden time.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The big guests continue on Las Culturistas this week, it's the very funny Amy Poehler.

[Topher Grace]

Don't overthink it.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

They talk water. We did not drink water growing up. Water was not a thing.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Parenting, you got teen boys.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

This is like the black diamond of parenting. And of course, I don't think so, honey. Horror movies.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Okay, okay, Amy Poehler is on las culture.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

The latest episod is out now listen to Las culturistas on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Go ahead and put a four up on the screen. This shows the historical context of Trump is the most unpopular. He's actually beat his own record for being the most Unpopular President at 100 Days in Modern history. Now, of course, our politics has changed like these Harry truman style. Almost 90% approval ratings are just not really on the table at this point in time. But even if you look at Joe Biden at this point, he was in the 50s. Barack Obama was extraordinarily popular in the first term. In the second term, we think of that as being a time when there was a huge backlash against Obama. He's still at 50% there. You see George W. Bush not doing too well there in the second term, but obviously very popular in the first term. So in any case, even modern equivalent standards, Trump is sort of uniquely unpopular. But I want to transition to we have this great clip from Frank Luntz, one of his focus groups, where he was speaking to Trump supporters and asked them specifically about the tariffs and their concerns about the economy, if they have any concerns about the economy. And this has been the consistent source of Trump's power. He's always been, compared to other presidents, relatively unpopular. But he has this group of voters who are ride or die and will never leave him no matter what. And that is certainly evident in this clip that you'll see where every single one of these Trump voter focus group participants is like, it's fine if my 401k goes down. I'm not worried about it. I support what he's doing. I think this is a masterclass, et cetera. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

[John O'Brien]

I need to ask you an issue that no one's brought up up and that has crashed your 401ks, most of you, your tariffs, stock market Is way down.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It needed a correction.

[John O'Brien]

Oh, so you support it?

[Wilmer Valderrama]

Yes, you bet.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yep.

[John O'Brien]

How many? And I have to tell you, how many?

[Ryan Grimm]

My 401k wasn't impacted at all.

[Sagar Enjeti]

How many?

[John O'Brien]

First off, how many of you did not lose any money over the drop over the crash of the stock market? One individual, two people.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So administration.

[Dutch Representative]

I lost more money than the Trump administration by far.

[John O'Brien]

2020. In 2022. Yeah.

[Topher Grace]

For the whole year.

[John O'Brien]

No one's upset over this? No, no, no, nobody. If people just get in and stay the course, they'll be just fine line.

[Topher Grace]

Yeah.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And I was about to say I'm not a day trader.

[Topher Grace]

I try not to look at it very often, which is I think a good thing. But I also, I also trust that Trump and all of his advisors that are involved with the tariff issue know what they're doing. So I'm just going to hang on. I know it'll correct at some point.

[John O'Brien]

How much do prices have to go up before you say, say this is not that great.

[Topher Grace]

I'd rather not buy from China.

[Dutch Representative]

I'd rather pay more money and buy American same.

[John O'Brien]

And prices only go up if, if demand is inelastic and if there's no alternative supplies. And they're doing a brilliant job, they're surrounding China with countries that want to manufacture stuff as well. And we do need to bring the stuff back, the strategic stuff for sure. But. But China is going to be in the soup if they don't knock it off.

[Topher Grace]

Every article of clothing I have on is probably made in China, Malaysia or somewhere else.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Okay, retailers, give me something made in America.

[Sagar Enjeti]

So, Emily, Trump has definitely lost ground with independent voters. I mean, the numbers there are pretty extraordinary. And he has lost some high profile supporters or at least not necessarily lost them. But some people are starting to express concern. Joe Rogan has done so. Candace Owens just came out and said, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm siding with Harvard over Donald Trump. So you have a little bit of cracks at the kind of elite level. There's no sign of that in the polling among Republican based voters who still very much trust Donald Trump and very much support whatever it is that he's going to do, whenever it is, he's going to do it well.

[Topher Grace]

And this has always been Trump math is that you have this base and it's actually not even a majority of the Republican Party. It never really has been a majority of the Republican party. It's about 30 to 40% of Republicans who are just, they will leave the Republican Party. If Trump leaves the Republican Party, they are just Trump first and then. Then the party, then conservatism. Trump is their sort of politics. He is the party. And so to the that. And so, yeah, that's the Trump math is always that group of people who will turn out to the polls, and then you have to put on top of that, some group of people that is just plainly voting against the other side. They just think the other side is so awful that they will swallow all of the sort of stylistic issues that they see with Donald Trump or any of the liabilities that they see with Donald Trump and say, all right, he's less bad. And that's not exactly what happened with Barack Obama. It's not exactly what happened with George Bush. You had a big group of people that were voting of independents who said, I am actually voting for this person, or swing voters who said, I'm actually voting for this person, not just against the other person. And that's how Trump has always been able to get through. It doesn't translate for Republicans after Trump. And that is what they have to reckon with when they see a Joe Rogan as a canary in the coal mine is that this guy gravitated towards Donald Trump. As soon as Donald Trump starts to, like, screw things up, that doesn't mean he's going to ever be around the Republican Party again. So how do you sort of be able to weather the storms of Donald Trump and come out like, does that mean you need to start speaking out against what's happening in the universities? And nobody's going to do that, but these are the thoughts that are going to start bubbling up in their heads in the next 100 days, for sure.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

And if we could put up a eight, that shows how deep in the minority these kind of hardcore Trump supporters are. 72% of people expect a recession. And the vast majority of them believe that Trump is doing this, that he's driving us into recession, that this is not some external shock to the economy. 34% approve of Trump's tariffs. In this country that is so divided by tribe, by party 40, it's very hard to get anything under, like, 45. Like, if your side supports it, then at least 45% of the country is gonna end up supporting it, even if it's the most idiotic thing ever, until it starts to have material bite. And I think that's the only thing that can kind of push through the partisan divide here. So you kind of wind up with Trump in this trap where. Where if he wants validation, which as we know, that is the thing that he lives on throughout the day, throughout his life. He can find that validation in that focus group from people like Frank Luntz was talking to there, who are like, yeah, this is all great. There's a plan. Trust the plan. Just don't look. It's all gonna be fine. So Trump can find that. So what could shake him out of this is it. And it sounds like the, the bond market. Apparently the bond market and also Wall street, the Target, Walmart and Home Depot. CEOs coming to tell him the shelves are going to be empty shook him out of it. And he's like, okay, fine, we're not doing 145%. And then everybody sighs and they're like, okay, somebody got through to Trump. This is all going to be okay. And then he's like, it's only gonna be 50 to 60%. And it's like, bruh, bro, that's the same. Once you're over like 10ish percent, you're shutting down global shipping, which is maybe fine if you have some plan B for what you're going to do when global shipping shuts down. But moving it from 145 to 60, it's like, oh, he didn't really get it, so he sort of absorbed it when he heard it from those CEOs. Now the shelves are actually potentially going to be empty. So will that resonate at all?

[Topher Grace]

I mean, it depends. Because if you've purged internal critics and people are walking on eggshells to say, hey, sir, your own supporters, your working class supporters who paid money to get to another state to go to a Trump rally, these are the types of people right now who are really unhappy. First of all, does anyone in the circle have the sort of courage to say that, to make that point without being blacklisted? I don't know. It seems like the people who did in that case were people outside of Trump's circle that were able to get through to Scott Bent, and then Scott Besant was able to take the message to Donald Trump or that he heard directly from these guys on Wall Street. I mean, Trump is here. If this is hopeful. Trump is a savvy politician to the extent that he knows people's material conditions are a big driver of their politics. And, you know, the whole thing we haven't talked about here, that's be the biggest elephant in the room is the fact that this guy might want to run for a third term. And I say run. I don't know what that means.

[Sagar Enjeti]

There are no, Trump 2028 hat over there.

[Topher Grace]

Now, Scott Ban. Steve Bannon has said, I don't know who Scott Bannon is. It's a combination of Steve Bannon and Scott Besant. That is an interesting hybrid in the Maga Zoo, but if you want to imagine that. But the. Steve Bannon has said there could be different avenues for that. And I just think that is a really important eleph elephant in the room right now. That changes everything we just talked about. And the way that they see this internally, too.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And previously, the right would have been, oh, you libs or Trump derangements. Of course, he's just joking about that. No one's saying that shit this time. No one is saying that this time. They're like, I guess he wants to run again. We'll see how that goes.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

We can't tell what's a joke or not anymore.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It's not. None of it's a joke. Clearly none of it is a joke.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

28 is more likely to be his approval rating, but still.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, true, true. So one thing I also wanted to not skip over and actually, can we go back to a 5 and put this up on the screen? Because there's a bunch that's really interesting and noteworthy in this New York Times Sienna poll of the different issues. First of all, immigration is his top issue. He's still underwater there. But then if you look at his worst issue, it's the case involving Kilmara Brego Garcia, which I think is vindication to people such as myself who have been saying, no, you should be talking about this case case, because that is going to pull down all of his numbers on immigration, which is his strongest issue. You want to go after his strength, et cetera. Putting that aside, look at what his next worst issues are. The war between Russia and Ukraine and foreign conflicts in general. And, Ryan, I don't want to skip over that, because I think when we did our focus groups and talked to those AOC Trump voters right after the election, almost all of them cited, hey, I think he's going to be better for peace. I think he's gonna be better for ending wars than Biden Harris. And now when Trump makes this outlandish promise, oh, I'm gonna resolve the Russia, Ukraine conflict in 24 hours. Always preposterous. But he says it with such. He repeated it so much that I think a lot of people did feel like, okay, maybe not 24 hours, but he's gonna be able to bring this thing to a close. Obviously, the Gaza ceasefire completely collapsed now. You're looking at just complete extermination campaign and starvation within Gaza. And so that was another piece that I think is really important as well. There was this preposterous framing of him, in my view, as being this anti war peace candidate that truly won over some chunk of independent voters. And that piece has also just completely crumbled. And he has really nothing to show for a foreign policy agenda at this point.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yeah, and Emily, before you answer that, Amir Thabon at Haaretz over the weekend had this really interesting column where he said there actually is a war that Trump can end with a tweet. And he's referencing this kind of really pathetic post on either Twitter or through social from Trump where he was like, vladimir, please stop. What are you doing?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Vladimir, stop.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

It was like just humiliating himself. If Trump did that for Netanyahu and said what Tabone wrote was beyond maybe stop, get the hostages out. Like, if he did that, the next day the bombing stops, the talks resume. Seriously. And within days, probably the hostages are out. Like, there actually is a war that he can end if he chooses to. Instead, he's not ending the one he's focused on and the one that he promised he would end, which is Israel's assault on Gaza. He ended it on the inauguration day. He got his little headline, and then six weeks, eight weeks later allowed Israel to start it up again. And he's also saying that Netanyahu needs to be kind to the people in Gaza. That was roughly his quote on Air Force One. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is not allowing any food in and hasn't since March 2nd, which if your stated preference as Trump is not the one that Netanyahu is following through on, doesn't that make you look weaker than Joe Biden? Like, Joe Biden, when he would tell them, you got to start letting aid in, they'd go from, like, you know, 300 trucks to 350 trucks. Like, he could at least move the needle, right? Trump is claiming that he wants food to get into Israel, and Netanyahu's telling him to f off. Like, is there any point at which this is embarrassing to him?

[Topher Grace]

It's because the people who are making the policy itself, who are executing the policy itself, are not. With Trump on those points of about how Israel needs to be kind to the people in Gaza, Trump, at the very least, I guess we could say, has, like, maybe more of a realist perspective than the Mike Huckabee. Huckabee, on his first night as ambassador, posted a picture with Netanyahu. I mean, Trump himself obviously posted on True Social a couple of weeks that they are on the same side of every issue. He and Netanyahu after they had a phone call. But, you know, this was everything we were talking about with Dan Caldwell being purged from the Pentagon, from Pete Hex's circles. Like, yes, yes, that sort of exasperation with the Israel hawks in the Republican Party is real in Trump circles, but it's not nearly as powerful as the sort of holdovers, the, you know, policy or the build up, the residue of decades and decades of GOP bear hug Israel, bear hugging of Israel at every turn. And so even if Trump, as you were saying that if Trump posted just BB stop in all caps like he did to Putin, I was imagining him being subverted. Like, what would happen immediately after he sent that True Social people would, people who are in the administration doing sort of like daily policy would immediately, if he even did that hypothetically, would immediately be trying to find ways to support Netanyahu that are like under the radar. So that's not conspiratorial. It's just that there's an internal war between people who thought, like, even people here in D.C. who look at Donald Trump and say, well, maybe this is the best chance to sort of end the dead foreign policy consensus in a good way. You know, they're constantly being, their efforts are constantly being like frustrated and thwarted by the majority of people in professional Washington foreign policy circles who have learned that they can continue to have jobs by saying nice things about Donald Trump. I'm thinking specifically of like a Mike Waltz here, by the way, and be in positions of power and then they can, all they had to do was like sort of take that pill, swallow the pill of, take the medicine of saying, oh, yeah, Donald Trump is great, America, great again. So, yeah, it does look weak. It absolutely looks weak. But it doesn't really get framed that way among its supporters.

[Sagar Enjeti]

It also imperils the negotiations with Iran as well. So, I mean, there's, you know, the coddling of Israel has reverberating impacts that don't just, just stay limited to, you know, the horrors that are unfolding in Gaza with our taxpayer dollars, which is increasingly, wildly unpopular with almost the entire population, with like the exception of boomer Republicans. Effectively, at this point, the whole nation has turned on this, you know, on this project of perpetual war crimes. I do want to touch on immigration again really quickly just because we have some really interesting numbers there that show people can evaluate how things are going and change their minds on the Democratic side. In particular, there seems to be this assumption that, like, well, if a poll says people think, think this, that's it, there's no changing their minds, it's over. We better just not talk about that topic, or we better totally adopt a different view on that topic, et cetera. And immigration is like the primary case in point. Take a look at a nine. So this is just on how people feel about whether or not immigrants benefit the population. And you can see this huge surge in the number of people who now say immigrants make the country better off and a dramatic decline in those who say that immigrants make the country worse off. And relatively flat on the ones that say it doesn't make much of a difference. If you go back and look at the numbers on immigration during Trump 1.0, you have almost never in history had a more pro immigrant population than we did at that time, because they were looking at what Trump was doing, and they were saying, I don't support this. I don't like this. And that's how you end up with Democrats, Democrats reading those polls and then doing their high school Spanish at the debates and positioning themselves in that way. So we're seeing a similar radical shift in terms of people's views on immigration. And go ahead and put a 10 up on the screen, you can see independents in particular, who have shifted quite dramatically. The 56% overall disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue. 62% of independents oppose remove foreign students. 52% opposed renditions to El Salvador. I would personally like that number to be a lot higher than that. But anyway. And only 21% went Kilmar abrego Garcia left in this prison. So to me, this was predictable, that in theory, people say, yeah, okay, Trump's saying, these people are all criminals. Yes, let's get the criminals down, et cetera. When you're actually met with the reality of, oh, these, these are human beings who, many times they are not the caricature that they've been made out to be. And then you also have the Trump administration engaging in these outrageous tactics, which they themselves clearly paint a picture of. Hey, today it's Kilmara Brego Garcia, tomorrow it can be you. We want to go after the homegrowns next. So immediately, they're helping to make the connection between the loss of rights for this immigrant population and the loss of rights for the entire population. You know, it's not surprising to me to see that immigration, even on the issue of immigration, he's now underwater. And independents are really flipping their Views in real time.

[Topher Grace]

No, not surprising. And gets to a point that you made earlier, which is that they don't even necessarily trust public opinion anymore because they saw that happen in the first term and then saw him get reelected several years later because the Biden administration's policies were so unpopular. And again, you can make the mistake of misreading that mandate as an embrace of your policy rather than a rejection of your predecessor's policy. And I think there's, there's some of that happening. And the other part of it is that because they feel they have the mandate, they are sort of isolating themselves or insulating themselves from even critics on the right who say you're going to hurt your ability to do, quote, unquote, mass deportations. If you're focusing on these cases where you actually made a mistake in doubling down. In the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, obviously the man who admitted the Trump administration made a mistake was fired, but the administration doubled down on it and didn't concede that there was any error whatsoever. Whatsoever. And it became a public spectacle that resulted in public opinion shifting, just as you showed crystal. And so, you know, it's sort of from both sides. There's this, this, this criticism that people, because of those litmus tests in the administration are basically insulated from and it will not make their policies more popular, that's for sure.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

I think it's Stephen Miller. I think the public sees Stephen Miller on TV and they're like, whatever that guy's for, I'm against.

[Sagar Enjeti]

He is a relatively repulsive figure and.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

He'S single handedly driving an entire country's views on immigration. He fades and people are like, yeah, I don't like immigrants anymore. He comes back in like, God, I love immigrants.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Like, if it's immigrants or this dude, I'm with the immigrants team Immigrant all day long. I mean, he just reads, he isn't extremist.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Trump thinks he's an extremist. There's that amazing anecdote where he's making fun of Miller for being a racist, saying that if it was up to you, Steven, everyone in this country would look exactly like you. Yeah, like two races for Trump.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I mean, which relates to racist.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Because he's happy to have him around, right?

[Sagar Enjeti]

Exactly. Yeah. I'm happy to give him control of the entire portfolio. And it relates to, they've been tracking the stock market performance when it's Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnick, whose name is mentioned more in the news, versus Scott Bessant. So, Ryan, you may be onto something there in terms of the spokespeople for the Trump policies. Em, thank you so much for joining us this morning. We appreciate you and great to have your views on this first, very, very consequential, very fast paced, momentous, we'll certainly say extraordinary first hundred days of this administration.

[Topher Grace]

Thanks for having me guys.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah, pleasure.

[Dutch Representative]

Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24,7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

It's nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilmer's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.

[Topher Grace]

We were still in that place of.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Like, what will this experience become?

[Topher Grace]

And you go, you, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. The big guests continue on Las Culturistas. This week it's the very funny Amy Poehler.

[Topher Grace]

Don't overthink it.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

They talk water. We did not drink water growing up. Water was not a thing.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Parenting, you got teen boys.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

This is like the black diamond of parenting. And of course, I don't think so, honey.

[Topher Grace]

Horror movies.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

Okay, okay.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Amy Poehler is on Las Cult.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

The latest episode is out now. Listen to Las culturistas on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Sagar Enjeti]

We now have the Trump trade war officially showing up in numbers in terms of shipping and news media starting to cover it. Let's take a listen to MSNBC Talking about a 50% year over year drop at west coast ports.

[Ryan Grimm]

You are looking at a 44% decrease in vessels year over year coming in. And what's really key here, Alex, are the people that move the containers. You need people to move trade. If you have 40% less containers coming in, that is going to impact the people that that are the truckers, the railroads, the warehousing. This is more than just us consuming and us bringing in orders. There's an entire supply chain here that is connected to jobs. And so the longer this goes, Alex, we're going to see some significant impact here in terms of employment. In fact, the Port of Oakland, which is a huge, huge port that relies on, on both imports and exports, are very, very balanced. They've got a 5050 split. They already started warning on, on Friday about the detriment when it comes to jobs and the exposure.

[Topher Grace]

With this, even if a deal is.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

Reached soon, are we in for at.

[Topher Grace]

Least some troubling times ahead?

[Ryan Grimm]

I believe we are. And the reason why is that trade takes time to move and you also have to order it. The fact that we've had a pause and in all of these manufacturing plants, I have had sources tell me in China that there are factories that have literally shut down because they're not making any products for the United States. So if you think about it, remember with COVID everything shut down and then everything ramped back up. And so what happens is, once you hit that unpause button, it's going to be that rush to make the materials and then get the product on the vessels and back here, which causes congestion and raises freight pressure crisis.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And the west coast ports are not only gigantic, they're also the first places where these massive disruptions would show up. I think we all got a real lesson in supply chain logistics during COVID and how, you know, once these things start to unravel, apparently not all of us, apparently not all of us, there are cascading effects that you cannot just snap your fingers and things go back to normal. Even if Trump today comes out and says, guess what? Trade war over. We're back to, you know, wherever the previous tariffs were with regard to China. If you could put B2 up on the screen, because I thought this was a remarkable visible representation of just how screwed the supply chain is at this point. So this is a map. You can see China on one side, you can see LA on the other side. And the blue dots are all of the ships. Now, normally, there should be roughly even distribution across this map. And you can see because so many companies in the US that were planning on importing goods from China said, I can't pay this 145% tariff. This is an impossibility. You have all of these ships in this cargo just stuck sitting in China right now. And that's the state of affairs that Walmart and Home Depot were warning Trump about that, hey, we are weeks away, days away from starting to have our Shelves be light, starting to have things that are just out of stock. And also many people have been taking note. Ryan, B1B guys, put this up on the screen. We are also now officially at the point where Shein, the low cost retailer that many Americans appreciate, is massively hiking their prices. So up to 377% price hikes. Over at Shein, not everything is at that level. But the thick kitchen cleaning towels have now gone up from $1.28, which is unbelievable. They cost that to $6.10. Blinds, air conditioning, gap brush, that's gone up 219%. The price hikes are starting to hit. I can tell you. I personally have seen prices jump at Amazon over the past couple of weeks as well. I know there were reports, Ryan, about Amazon sellers starting to take into account these price hikes.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Yeah. And the risk for the world is that all of those ships that you saw kind of hanging out off the Chinese coast, they got to go somewhere at some point. And so other countries are afraid that now there's going to be a bunch of Chinese dumping like, okay, well, we made this stuff. It's sitting the ship. Can't sell it to the United States because they're doing their thing. You know, who wants a towel for $2? And Colombia would be like, all right, we'll take a million towels for $2 or whatever, or a Colombian company. And then the company in Colombia that makes the towels, they go under. So, like, there's a risk. Everybody's kind of holding their breath over, like, how this is going to play out. Meanwhile, this Ken Griffith Griffin Trump supporting Ken Griffin, this answer that he gave at a recent conference, I thought kind of nailed the problem that the U.S. what would you call it, the U.S. political economy faces coming out of this. Because the thing that really nailed Biden, like you said, was inflation from when the supply chains restarted. Because you can't because of all of the bankruptcies and all of the clogging. It takes a very long time for that to start running smoothly again. Now, you've also implicated treasury bonds and the dollar. So what is that going to do if and when that starts flowing again? Let's roll. Griffin.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Markets are obviously not liking what they're hearing. Treasuries in have seen a lot of volatility and worries about dysfunction in the market. What is that doing to the American brand?

[H]

Well, okay, you actually picked exactly the right word. The American brand. Right. The United States was more than just a nation. It's a brand. It's a universal brand. Whether it's our culture, our financial strength, our military strength. America rose beyond just being. It was like an aspiration for most the world. And we're eroding that brand right now. And if you think of your behavior as a consumer, how many times do you buy a product with a brand on it because you trust that brand? You know, you could buy like a similar dress with no name for less money. But you want the dress that you think is going to not fall apart in two weeks. You want the handbag that you think is well made. You want the television vision that you know that when you turn it on it's going to work perfectly. You want the car that when you turn the engine on it's going to run. And when it comes to money management, for example, there are, there are many great American institutions whose the power of their brand that they will deliver a fair service at a fair price, that they'll do well by their investors and put their investors interest first. Whether it's a BlackRock or Fidelity. These are global brands of immense power.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Power.

[H]

But in the financial markets, no brand compared to the brand of the US Treasuries. US treasury market. The strength of the US dollar and the strength, the credit worthiness of US Treasuries, no brand came close. We put that brand at risk. And as you and I both know, it can take a very long time, very long time to remove the tarnish on a brand.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

And the US being the kind of reserve currency and this kind of global empire has a lot of downsides, also has upsides for Americans. You could imagine a world in which the strength that comes from that could be the basis for reform and revitalizing the country. Instead you're kind of getting rid of it without replacing it with anything else.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Right.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

And also destroying tourism like, like just which is, you know, 9 plus percent of GDP, which is just an absolutely huge number.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And much more significant for certain places, many red states like Florida and the Gulf Coast, Nevada.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Nevada's like reliving 2010 and 2011, which.

[Sagar Enjeti]

I'm seeing lots of tiktoks about that.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

And for no reason. Like the amount of pain that ripped through Vegas in the wake of the financial crisis is hard to bear. And to see it now happen, happening for no reason, just because is hard to watch.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And was part of a shift to the right in Nevada because of the carnage from COVID and the perception of democratic handling of that. And in spite of the fact that you have very strong union organization there, you still saw significant shift to the right in Nevada. As a consequence of the shutdowns and the COVID Covid fallout. So you can only imagine with this where the blame is 100% with Donald Trump, there's no argument otherwise what the fallout could be.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

That's a good point. They suffered through the COVID lockdowns. So first they suffered through financial crisis and real estate collapsed.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Oh, that was brutal.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Then a nice recovery for a while and then you got a couple good years and then whacked by Covid. Then everybody's coming back to Vegas and partying and things are looking good and they're. And boom.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yep, they shut down. You know, the Ken Griffin thing could require a longer exploration that maybe we don't wanna get into today. But as he's talking about America as a brand, I'm just thinking like many of the people on the Trump team that he supported and he backs Republicans to the tune of many millions of dollars, they don't agree with that. Like Stephen Miller sees America as blood and soil. Right. So they don't see America as a quote unquote brand. And I think there is something to, to be said for a critique of the America is a brand posture. But I also think that his comments about the way that that branding, and no one would understand this better than Donald Trump himself, the way that that branding impacts our status as the global reserve currency and the flight to safety, to treasury bonds, et cetera, it is quite paramount to the way that the financial system is structured right now. And so if you are going to disrupt that and move to something else, you better have a damn good plan. And there's one thing that we have definitely learned. There was no damn good plan here. There was barely a plan. I mean, they were crafting that chart using ChatGPT or however they decided to do it leading up to the hours before it's revealed and turns the entire global economic system utterly on its head. We got a couple more pieces here that just show the beginnings of the economic fallout. We've got B5 and Intel plant has now been delayed yet years and at the cost of quite a number of jobs now delayed until 2031. And in part the uncertainty over the tariffs is playing into this. We also something that Sager had brought up before is some of these specific parts of our economy are ultra, ultra dependent on China for new parents buying strollers. Basically every stroller is 98% or something made in China and many other goods that you sort of essentially have to buy when you are bringing a child into this world. And toys are disproportionately made in China as well. I can put B6 up on the screen. So these are impacts already on the US Toy industry. And you have to think like in our terms, Christmas is a long way off. If you are a toy importer, if you're a toy store store, you're thinking about this and you're planning for it. Now you already have some 80 to almost 90% of toy companies that are delaying orders. You got 64% of small toy companies and 80% of midsize toy companies canceling orders. And you have almost half that say, Ryan, they will go out of business in weeks or months. Yeah, weeks or months.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Right. And a lot of them are going out of business at as we speak. China, meanwhile, has announced that they're going to try to help their companies that, you know, these factories that are completely shut down, they're going to try to help those companies, help those workers to get through this because they can do that. They have like a unified system. Whereas, you know, we don't, you know, Donald Trump would have to go to Congress and doesn't, apparently doesn't feel any interest in doing that. Real quickly on that, on that intel point to preempt or a counterargument that you're going to hear from Trump supporters over this plant will say, well, this plant was, it was delayed previously. First it was supposed to be 2020, whatever, and then it was supposed to be 2030. Now it's 2031. And this is representative of the failures of the Chips act and of the underlying kind of capacity in the United States to build up our high tech manufacturing base. Okay, true. But if that's the case, and you already understand that, is that the foundation on which you would launch a trade war? Think about that. So according to you, and I'm talking to you Trump supporters who are going to make this exact point about this intel plant, that this had nothing to do with the tariffs, that we just simply are not able to build these manufacturing facilities in a competent way. If that's true. True. And it is, we have a lot of work to do when it comes to labor force and when it comes to cracking down on these multinational corporations who would much rather do stock buybacks than actual investments. That's true. We've got to get our house in order. If that's true, then why did you just take a wrecking ball to our ability to do that? Why not fix our own manufacturing capacity problems here in the United States first and then launch a trade war so that when market conditions are made better domestically by tariffs. We have the capacity to respond to those conditions and build manufacturing capacity. That would be how you could potentially successfully do that.

[Sagar Enjeti]

And the irony is we actually were doing some of that under Biden.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

The charts are like shooting straight up under Biden.

[Sagar Enjeti]

If you go and look at manufacturing investment and spending and jobs and, you know, these factories. Yeah, these factories were coming online. We were actually, you know, for the first time in a long time, the recovery out of COVID included more manufacturing spending. You know, the history of economic crises in modern American economic history has been that when you come out of the crisis, some of the manufacturing losses, they're just gone. They don't come back. And they were able to buck that trend through the Infrastructure act and through the CHIPS act in particular, and through the Inflation Reduction act, which is the dumbest ever name. But anyway.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

And some of Trump and Biden's tariffs.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yes, like targeted tariffs, putting all of those things together, you actually did have a positive trend in terms of rebuilding American manufacturing in some really key sectors for the future. And all of that that they're taking a sledgehammer to. And Trump thought all of that was stupid. Ryan, I mean, he said this, his view was you didn't have to do this industrial policy. You didn't have to give these subsidies and create these incentives for companies to build that. You could just do tariffs and force.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Them into it and jawbone them, call them up and yell at them.

[Sagar Enjeti]

Yeah. And you know what the jawboning like with a company here or there, that may work. But if you're trying to have a nationwide ride manufacturing renaissance in certain key sectors, you are not going to be able to jawbone your way into that. And you're certainly not going to be able to just tariff your way into that. And we know that because in Trump's first term, he did just tariffs, much more limited, but just tariffs without corresponding industrial policy. And it didn't work. Manufacturing continued to decline. Companies continue to offshore jobs. And the only way that we turned that away around was through the industrial policy that was, you know, inherent in the Biden administration that the Trump, Trump people and the Doge people are now completely like decimating, taking a wrecking ball, too.

[Dutch Representative]

Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24. 7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

It'S nostalgia overload as Wilmer Valderrama and Freddie Rodriguez welcome another amigo to their PIL podcast, Dos Amigos. Wilbur's friend and former that 70s show castmate Topher Grace stops by the speakeasy for a two part interview to discuss his career and reminisce about old times.

[Topher Grace]

We were still in that place of.

[Freddie Rodriguez]

Like, what will this experience become?

[Topher Grace]

And you go, you're having the best time. But it was like such a perfect golden time.

[Wilmer Valderrama]

Listen to Dos amigos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[John O'Brien]

70% of Americans are living from paycheck to paycheck. Not black people, not brown people, everybody. And whether you're white, black, red, brown or yellow, you want to see some more green? Can I get an amen? Hey, this is Financial Literacy Awareness Month. Tune in to Money and Wealth with John O'Brien, a podcast that breaks down financial freedom in a way that's real, relatable, and rooted in empowerment. From rebuilding your credit to starting your wealth journey, I give you all the tools to rise. I'm going to break down how the modern economy works. This is what they never taught you in school. You you're not dumb and you're not stupid. It's what you don't know that you don't know is killing you. But you think you know. To hear this and more practical wisdom, open your free iHeartRadio app, search money and wealth with John O'Brien and start listening today.