Ryan Grim (2:16)

can find honest perspectives from the left

Krystal Ball (2:18)

and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, Please go to BreakingPoints.com, become

Ad Voice (2:25)

a member today and you'll get access

Krystal Ball (2:27)

to our full shows, unedited ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breaking points.com. we're joined now by Branko March Teach. He is a staff writer at Jacobin. He's the author of Yesterday's man, the Case Against Joe Biden and is out with a truly fantastic deep dive, deep dive into Jeffrey Epstein's relationship with Peter Thiel in Jackman. Jacobin cannot recommend this piece highly enough. This is Dwin. We can put the tear sheet up on the screen. You absolutely must go check it out over at Jacobin. The headline line here Jeffrey Epstein encouraged Peter Thiel's political journey. So, Branko, let's just start with the highlights. After spending so much time piecing together these emails between Peter Thiel and Jeffrey Epstein, of which there are many, what can you tell us about how close the relationship was and why? Over what types of issues did they bond?

Branko Marcetic (3:27)

Yeah, well, thanks for having me. First of all, they were extremely close. There's some people that I've written about in the context of Epstein, billionaires who knew him, who, you know, they say, well, just because they were mentioned in emails by Epstein doesn't mean that they actually had any kind of relationship with them. You can safely say that is not the case with Thiel. Thiel is all over these emails. They are communicating very frequently over the course of years. They're having phone calls, they're having meetings face to face. Epstein is introducing him to, you know, people that he seems to think will be particularly useful or influential for Thiel to know. So, you know, Epstein is also showering him with all kinds of gifts. He's offering to fly him to his island in his helicopter. He's offering him at 1.500 to $100 million to invest. He's giving him tax advice. He's in turn soliciting investment advice from Thiel. Thiel at one point introduces Epstein to some of his Valor co founders and he suggests to put in 10 million to $20 million into a new fund. They' at one point, Epstein even suggests Thiel can use one of his top sleep doctors in New York. He says, I want you to stay alive. So it was a very close relationship and the kinds of things they bonded over, I mean, there's a variety of things that they talked about. But I think the most pertinent thing to me in looking through his emails is the way that Epstein seems to be very interested in Thiel's kind of budding involvement and interest in politics and geopolitics and how he seems to want to develop and encourage that by kind of introducing them to a wide variety of influential players around the world and in the context of the US What

Ryan Grim (5:22)

I think is so interesting about Epstein and who he was connected to, and also Thiel, aside from the obvious, is both of these guys were kind of on the pioneer of where the kind of Davos world was not even the more extreme, weird wing of the Davos world almost was headed, particularly when it comes to kind of eugenics, when it. When it comes to mass surveillance and deploying technologies like Palantir that Thiel was developing to usher in kind of new worlds. Also Bitcoin and AI, like Epstein, Thiel, like, they were both talking about that stuff so much earlier, you know, than, you know, either the public or even kind of other people in their set. So what do you make of that, that kind of ability that they had to see where. Where their kind of social set was heading and also to kind of drive it in that direction a little bit?

Branko Marcetic (6:27)

Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned cryptocurrency, because that is a big theme, I think, in Epstein's emails in general, but particularly with his relationship with Teal. Epstein kind of suggests in one early email when he's trying to get in touch with Teal, and by the way, he is really, before they become friends, he is really trying to meet Teal and to forge a connection with him. I think I counted something like 10 different times over the course of two years that he is emailing people, trying to set up some kind of meeting with him. He says that one of the things that is interesting him, that he hopes that he can connect with Thiel over, is this idea of creating a new financial system, an alternative financial system. Some of that sounds a bit silly. He envisions Facebook being the basis for a new financial system where you trade favors instead of currency. But when you read through the emails, it's clear that Epstein's interest in cryptocurrency was a big part of this. And I think he hoped to use the Teal connection to try and usher this new world into existence. I think there's another aspect where the fact that these guys are both incredibly wealthy and that they kind of feel themselves at a remove from the rest of humanity, I think both gives them the kind of impulse to embark on what might look to us like almost wacky schemes, but, you know, ones that they're very serious about and ones obviously have very far reaching implications, you know, in terms of the ideas of kind of extending lifespan and you know, kind of going beyond the limits of normal human existence. I would also point to this didn't make it into the piece, but there's a exchange that they have where it's very brief. Epstein asked Thiel, as he does many times, whether he's going to come to New York. And Teal responds with something like, you know, I don't have any interest in coming to the zoo this week or something. And Epstein replies, you know, well, sometimes it's fun to look at animals. There's a. I think that exchange kind of betrays a certain way that these guys look at the rest of the world. You know, they're so far removed from everyone else that I think they kind of view the world and the rest of humanity is almost kind of a petri dish for themselves to kind of play around in and reforge in the vision that they see fit.

Krystal Ball (9:05)

Yeah, a couple of other things that stood out to me, I mean there's a lot that stood out but a couple of other things they seem to be trying to or Epstein seems to try to be brokering relationships between Thiel and the intelligence community. Also people like ultra wealthy businessmen like Tom Barak, if I'm remembering correctly, who's what our current ambassador to the uae. He was uae. Now he's.

Ryan Grim (9:28)

Wasn't it Turkey, but Lebanon.

Krystal Ball (9:29)

Yeah, but he was Trump won uae, right, Ryan?

Ryan Grim (9:33)

No, he was doing illegal lobbying for UAE and he was indicted for it.

Krystal Ball (9:37)

Right. So he was sort of an ambassador in one sense or the other. But he's trying to. I can't tell if you. I'm curious if you read it this way as well, Branko, that he's almost trying to like Curry favor with Epstein by doing favors for him. It seems like he's going out of his way to try to help Thiel, that Epstein's going out of his way to try to help Thiel make all of these introductions and then he's advising him on his speech at the rnc. It just knowing how much Epstein hates Trump and communicates how much he hates Trump to others. His relationship with Steve Bannon is much kind of more frank about that. Whereas with Thiel it's almost like he's trying to imply to Thiel that he's fully on board with. With Trump. There's just some weird undercurrents.

Branko Marcetic (10:20)

I my sense from looking at probably at this point thousands of these emails is that Epstein did have this falling out with Trump, and he was very disdainful towards Trump. He did not think very highly of him. But I think he understood that Trump was obviously a very influential and increasingly

Krystal Ball (10:36)

powerful person and could be bought in some ways.

Branko Marcetic (10:39)

Yeah, yeah. And I think Epstein understood that it was probably in his interest to have some kind of in with Trump or at least his administration. And Thiel, I think, was. Wars has end. I mean, when Epstein finds out that Thiel is a Trump delegate, that's when he starts sending him these emails, trying to help him kind of increase his influence within Trump's circles, trying to advise him on how to not piss off Trump, basically, and get himself kind of kicked out of the inner circle. I mean, he tells him, hey, I heard that you met with Tom Barack. And he basically says to him, I can make that meeting happen. You should know him. If you can kind of have your advice listened to by him, you'll be able to increase your influence within Trump's world later on. Yeah. He brokers a meeting between them. He reads a buzzfeed article where Thiel is quoted saying some unflattering things about Trump. And he tells him, hey, be careful. You know, Trump is very vindictive. You don't want to anger him and kind of get kicked out of the clubhouse. And sure enough, from what I could see after that email is sent, Thiel does not say anything negative about Trump after. He's very careful to always say positive things. So I think there was a realization by Epstein similar to the interest he took in Steve Bannon, where he similarly tried to introduce him to many, many powerful and influential people. You gave him advice and so on and so forth. I think he realized these two guys are going to be important power players, they're going to be influential within the Trump presidency and whatever comes after it. And it's probably better for me to have a good relationship with them and to have a kind of in and, you know, the intelligence side of things. Some of the other people that he introduced him to, I think there's a similar thing going on. The names come up when Epstein was trying to introduce Thiel to people. Includes Bill Burns, who became the CIA director under Biden. At the time, he was a State Department official. They include Kathy Ruemler, who was the Obama White House counsel once upon a time. He says to her at one point, when he's trying to get her to meet Thiel, you should bring some of your spook friends. So Epstein seemed to have a particular interest in kind of connecting Thiel to the world of intelligence. And of course what has happened since then, Thiel is very much deep in the world of intelligence. Epstein introduced Thiel to Ehud Barak. Thiel now has this major partnership with the Israeli military. At the same time, Thiel also his companies have increasingly aligned themselves with this kind of interventionist, pro war side of the political spectrum in the United States. Whereas Teal used to be, you know, at the time that he was had first met Epstein, he was someone who described himself as a non interventionist and he was against the US Fighting all these wars. So you know, whether it's what role Epstein played in it, you know, we can, we can only speculate. But Epstein's desire to have it kind of have a Teal that's more politically involved and less averse to war I think has worked out for him even if he didn't live to see it happen.

Ryan Grim (14:16)

Branko, great reporting. Really appreciate you being here.

Branko Marcetic (14:21)

Yeah, thanks for having me.

Ryan Grim (14:22)

I encourage everybody to check out his piece. Branko Mastic of Jackaman Magazine if you're

Ad Voice (14:29)

feeling off fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal. You're not alone. Meet Oestra from Inner Balance, the first all in one prescription strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop, 10 seconds a day. Oester replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third party tested to ensure the highest quality. Visit innerbalance.com today to start feeling like yourself again.

Sponsor Voice (14:58)

That's innerbalance.com it never happens at a good time. The pipe bursts at midnight, the heater quits on the coldest night.

Robert Pape (15:06)

Suddenly you're overwhelmed.

Sponsor Voice (15:08)

That's when Homeserve is here.

Robert Pape (15:09)

For $4.99 a month, you're never alone.

Sponsor Voice (15:12)

Just call their 247 hotline and a local pro is on the way. Trusted by millions, HomeServ delivers peace of mind when you need it most. For plans Starting at just $4.99 a

Robert Pape (15:21)

month, go to homeserve.com that's homeserve.com not available everywhere.

Sponsor Voice (15:25)

Most plans range between $4.99 to $11.99 a month. Your first year terms apply on covered repairs. Support for the show comes from public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stock, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comdisclosures

Ryan Grim (16:32)

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin came to Capitol Hill yesterday, appeared before the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on the Environment, where he was grilled by AOC over glyphosate and exposing what is a kind of fascinating rift developing between Trump and the Maha movement. This is a longer exchange than we usually play from hearings like this, but I think after you watch it, you're going to agree that the entire thing was worth including. Let's roll that.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (16:59)

Now Secretary Kennedy was here a couple of weeks ago and when he was asked about glyphosate and the rollbacks against protections against toxic chemicals, he said that we would, quote, have to ask Lee Zeldin about that. So you're here before us today. Administrator Zeldin, have you ever participated in a meeting with Bayer where you discussed the legal or litigation issues that the company was facing?

Lee Zeldin (17:28)

No, I never did.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (17:29)

Okay, I have.

Lee Zeldin (17:30)

My meeting with them was very brief and that topic did not come up.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (17:34)

All right, I do. Are you aware of any outreach that they would have in your agency about this?

Lee Zeldin (17:40)

I could say that I directly had a brief meeting, but it was a brief meet and greet and that topic did not come up.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (17:47)

Thank you, Mr. Chair. I'd like to submit EPA visitor logs from July 7, 2025 to the committee

Krystal Ball (17:58)

without objection, so ordered.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (18:00)

And you're certain they didn't bring up anything regarding your work?

Lee Zeldin (18:05)

I'm telling you a hundred percent, absolutely. I, I, I. Maybe there was some brainstorming that was done beforehand of potential topics.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (18:13)

Are you aware of any that topic

Lee Zeldin (18:14)

was not brought up.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (18:14)

Are you aware of anything brought up to any members of your staff or your team, your senior team?

Lee Zeldin (18:21)

I am not aware of that.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (18:22)

Now in this internal email in Your epa. It says that Bayer was specifically seeking to and discussing Supreme Court action. They will want an update on EPA's regulatory review. And that, interestingly, Bayer will provide a small thanks for updating the glyphosate webpage from the EPA and work on maha. Do you have any idea what they might have been referring to in this email?

Lee Zeldin (18:51)

Well, first off, as I mentioned a few minutes ago, it's possible that the team was doing brainstorming of potential topics. As somebody who actually attended.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (18:59)

Thank you. I'm sorry, I just have 40 seconds. I'm not trying to be rude. This glyphosate update that they're referring to seems to be correlated to the EPA agency withdrawing its support for California's cancer warning on glyphosate. Now, this is important because five days after the EPO this year, Bayer filed their opening brief to the Supreme Court citing Trump's executive order and hinging their case on the EPA's warnings, or lack thereof, of glyphosate. So we have internal emails from your agency saying that Bayer wanted to thank you and your agency for removing support for California's warning because their case before the Supreme Court right now hinges on you not warning the American people and withdrawing your support on glyphosate. Do you understand the conflict of interest that is before the American people right now?

Krystal Ball (19:56)

Mr. Secretary, General, lady's time has.

Lee Zeldin (19:58)

Mind if I respond?

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (19:59)

Thank you.

Krystal Ball (20:00)

The gentleman may respond.

Lee Zeldin (20:02)

Okay. So right now, EPA is completing an assessment due in 2026. And I understand this is a very important topic for many people in this country. This review that the EPA is being conducted, my guidance to dedicated career staffers, and then we have people who've been there for 20, 30 years is that. I don't want to pre.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (20:27)

It's taking a while, Secretary Zeldin, because.

Lee Zeldin (20:29)

Let me answer.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (20:30)

The Supreme Court is going to be making decisions this week, and Congress is voting this week on legal immunity.

Lee Zeldin (20:35)

But you made your point. Now I'm asking, do you mind if I answer? This is an important part of this that I'm sure you also can.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (20:40)

And I think the timing is also very important.

Krystal Ball (20:43)

Secretary Zell, the general lady's time has expired.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (20:46)

Thank you.

Ryan Grim (20:47)

So before we break down that exchange, let's roll. Thomas Massie, Republican Congressman, giving the kind of MAHA angle on this. One of the things in the farm

Krystal Ball (20:57)

bill I'm still trying to get out

Ryan Grim (20:59)

of it was successful in getting this out of prior bills is immunity for

Krystal Ball (21:05)

a German company called Bayer that makes glyphosate.

Ryan Grim (21:08)

This is not to grant farmers immunity.

Krystal Ball (21:10)

This is to grant the corporation immunity. If they give farmers, if farmers contract

Ryan Grim (21:16)

a form of cancer or non Hodgkin's lymphoma from this chemical, if this makes

Krystal Ball (21:21)

it into the farm bill, it won't be able, you won't be able to sue for that. And I know they're dealing with some similar legislation at the state level.

Ryan Grim (21:29)

One of the things that I liked about that AOC Zelda exchange is that she's been a of part pretty loyal kind of Democratic Party figure fairly and hasn't done a huge amount of kind of reach out to particularly to say, Mago or Maha, even though there are a lot of positions that she has that can be very appealing to people in those coalitions. This is a perfect example of it. What did you make of the substance of the back and forth too?

Krystal Ball (22:03)

Yeah, I mean, this is Lee Zeldin in the. I mean, when he was picked for epa, it was obvious there was going to be significant tension between him and Maha because he's in the position of being a Trump loyalist. And Republicans are totally in the pocket of these big ag companies. Like in the. Both parties have their kind of big benefactors. For Republicans, yeah, they share a lot of them. But for Republicans, based on the states that they come from, of course, like, one of them is ag. It's a huge, huge lobby. And so Zeldin's in this position of being a loyalist to Trump. Trump has all of these rich friends. In fact, it's why people believe he's not doing a lot of workforce immigration enforcement. Is that ag guys call up and be like, I can't afford to lose all of these workers if you start implementing E Verify or the like. And they're very influential on Donald Trump and Trump doesn't need to get reelected again. But he does like to keep people that he knows happy and basically is responsive to people who pick up the phone. And Zeldin is a pretty normie Republican who also now because he's in epa, has to be a Trump loyalist. It actually might have been interesting to see Bobby Kennedy at EPA and not at hhs. I don't know. Obama considered Bobby Kennedy for EPA and ultimately decided he was kind of too radical at the time. Someone posted this, this fascinating magazine cover from the late 2000s. I want to say it was like Vanity Fair with Julia Roberts, George Clooney and Bobby Kennedy warning about climate change.

Ryan Grim (23:41)

It's just like, yeah, he was a leading environmental attorney for decades.

Krystal Ball (23:49)

A far cry from Lee Zeldin, basically yeah, exactly.

Ryan Grim (23:53)

The substance of it is, is truly incredible. So, effectively, Lee Zalden went and changed the EPA's public positioning when it came to Roundup. The fact that he changed that public positioning was then extremely useful to them as they move through the courts trying to fend off all of the various challenges from all the destruction that the Roundup is causing. They then meet with him to thank him for doing that, and he denies that it remotely came up. And AOC has him kind of caught red handed. And I was a little angry. I'm like, hold on.

Branko Marcetic (24:37)

This is.

Ryan Grim (24:37)

We're supposed to be doing the FOIAs and breaking this news.

Krystal Ball (24:40)

Excuse me.

Ryan Grim (24:41)

Excuse me.

Krystal Ball (24:43)

Actually, oversight is her job. That's the point of the committee.

Ryan Grim (24:46)

That's true. No. And also nothing stopping us from doing it. So it's on us. We failed. She got there first. Kudos for the scoop. You can put up E4. This is not remotely a Republican issue.

Krystal Ball (25:03)

This story's awesome.

Ryan Grim (25:04)

Yeah, Tell us about this one. I saw you sharing some of it yesterday.

Krystal Ball (25:08)

Yeah. Nate Halverson went out into a bunch of California wilderness and discovered just mass use of Roundup, you know, near, I think, also in national park space, because they're using the space essentially as tree farms. Right. You can log and grow trees faster if you use glyphosate. And just. I was going to say napalm. The National Park Service or National parkland with glyphosate. And that's essentially what's happening. So check out that story. There's a video that goes along with it. Also, a little note in the story. Gavin Newsom made it easier to do this in Glyphosate Gavin Glyphosate Gavin Sagar likes to call him Greasy Gavin, but I think Glyphosate Gavin maybe has a better punch to it.

Ryan Grim (25:59)

Yes. So another exchange that Zeldin had that was going viral on the right, I saw was with Rosa Deloro.

Krystal Ball (26:10)

Rosa came in hot.

Ryan Grim (26:12)

Who? She's 80 plus, I believe, at this point.

Krystal Ball (26:16)

Yeah. She's been around forever.

Ryan Grim (26:17)

Look that up. Let's play a little bit of. This is not on the same issue,

Krystal Ball (26:24)

but this is on the Clean Air Act. Yeah.

Ryan Grim (26:26)

So let's roll E3 following the law,

Lee Zeldin (26:29)

Section 202 of the Clean Air Act. Where does it say anything about fighting global climate change? Loper Bright, Supreme Court case. You're familiar with it?

Krystal Ball (26:38)

No, I. Maybe others are.

Ad Voice (26:40)

I'm not, but let me ask.

Lee Zeldin (26:41)

But that's really important as a member of Congress. Loper Bright says that we as as an agency don't have the authority to get Creative if section 202 of the Clean Air Act.

Krystal Ball (26:51)

No, no. But you don't have.

Ad Voice (26:52)

Excuse me.

Krystal Ball (26:53)

You do not have the right to say climate change does not exist, that it's a hoax, and that's where this administration is.

Lee Zeldin (26:59)

You're upset that you don't know what Loper Bright is. Do you know what the major policies doctrine is? You know what the major policies doctrine is?

Sponsor Voice (27:06)

You're a member of Congress.

Lee Zeldin (27:07)

You should know. You want me to tell you what the two biggest Supreme Court cases are of the last few years?

Krystal Ball (27:12)

This is what I want you to.

Lee Zeldin (27:13)

Michigan versus epa.

Krystal Ball (27:14)

Whoa.

Lee Zeldin (27:15)

West Virginia versus epa.

Krystal Ball (27:16)

You know you're here because you need money from us. So halt for the second and wait for the questions and answer the question.

Lee Zeldin (27:22)

I answered your question and you didn't like my answer because you don't know what Loper Bright is. Because you don't know what the major policies doctrine is.

Krystal Ball (27:28)

And what you want to do is to deny.

Ad Voice (27:30)

You want to.

Lee Zeldin (27:31)

No, I actually read the law. I do my homework.

Krystal Ball (27:33)

Really?

Lee Zeldin (27:34)

You're just somebody who likes to have the microphone on. You know what I have to do. I read the law. I read the Supreme Court cases. No, what you should do for your constituents is actually read statutes. Our folks at the EPA is that you wanted to fund us.

Krystal Ball (27:47)

Listen to this BS BS.

Lee Zeldin (27:50)

You think I made up these cases?

Ryan Grim (27:52)

DeLauro There kind of gave it away when she, when she acknowledged that she didn't know what that.

Krystal Ball (27:58)

I was surprised.

Ryan Grim (27:59)

But, you know, one, she's super old. But two, I'm sure she does. I'm sure she remembers it from the time that's the case that we covered here that got rid of the quote unquote Chevron doctrine, which the Chevron doctrine was. If federal law is somewhat ambiguous, we will defer in a common sense way to the administrative state, to the EPA or whoever is tasked with writing the rules. And as long as it's reasonable, then that's fine. Courts, the court, the Supreme Court, our right wing Supreme Court said, no, we're going to take that power. Like the judges are going to do that instead of. Instead of them. And then the other ones that he's referring to said, well, you basically, you can't have carbon. You know, they got rid of allowing carbon to apply under the Clean Air Act. The Clean Air act was very clear that, like we are. The Drug Control act did the same thing. Drug Control act said, these are the drugs that are illegal right now, but people are making new drugs constantly. You know, LSD will be tweaked. It'll become a new thing. And if the scientists that work for the DEA determined that that drug is very similar to lsd, then that one is also then banned under the Controlled Substances act as well. You don't have to go back to Congress and ban every little single variation of a new drug. The Clean Air act was the exact same way that they would say, we want clean air. We want to protect clean air from pollutants with these are the known pollutants at the time. As new pollutants emerge through the industrial process. We're not asking the executive to come back to Congress every single time just in coordination with the public and public comment periods and through your scientific expertise, just add new pollutants. And obviously, some things are pollutants. All pollutants basically are safe at some level for the climate and for the world and unsafe at higher levels. And so the epa, through its process, declared that it had the authority to regulate carbon, which was in place for many, many years. And then the Supreme Court came in and said, no, you don't have that authority. So what frustrated me about that clip is that he was trying to take what is really a political disagreement and refashion it as you just don't know what you're talking about.

Krystal Ball (30:36)

Yes. But I also think that because again, we covered this at the time. Loperbread is a really interesting case that gets to, I think, an issue the fisherman or something.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) (30:45)

Right.

Krystal Ball (30:45)

Lobsterman. If I'm remembering correctly, that it actually does get to an interesting issue that I think what? Rosa Dolores, Connecticut. So I assume her district is some coastline. I would assume so. Don't know that for sure. But it was a lot of lobster rolls. Yes. Bureaucrats in D.C. basically making rules that were controlling, like, minute details of what these guys were doing off the coast of. I want to think. I want to say it was Maine in Loperbright. So I also think that something that, like, first of all, Rosa Delor should be prepared to make the argument that the Clean Air act, which was at the center of Loper Bright, should be used differently. And, like, it absolutely needs to be guided by Washington for reasons X, Y and z. So, like, she should be. If I were a Connecticut voter, I'd be like, ma', am, like, get back. Like, let's go. Like, this is a very obvious talking point against Zeldin. But I remember at the time, Ryan, we were talking about how part of the problem with Chevron, for example, is that you get these lobbyists coming through or you get the revolving door where you have people who are then going to go lobby revolving through the door of the epa and then they're the ones that are empowered to make some of these decisions about minute things. And you could see somebody from, I mean, it's happened. You could see people from the industries working at epa, making decisions that benefit the industries, then getting nice big fat paychecks. It's really like my dispute with it is that I think it's anti Democratic in some ways. So that's to me an interesting thing for Democrats who are Democratic.

Ryan Grim (32:19)

Leaving it up to judges.

Krystal Ball (32:21)

No, I'm not saying that they are, but that's like, it's also not a solution to just have people who have worked at the EPA and then are going over to. Maybe it's Bayer. It's like we should actually look up and see how many people have worked at Bayer working at the EPA now or have. But it's, I don't think it's a good situation either way.

Ryan Grim (32:39)

Well, you got to, you have to have some mechanism to actually implement what Congress passes. And if, to me, if Congress says and all right, so let's. When Democrats, if they come back into power, fine, like maybe they need to in every single bill enumerate, say we explicitly allow. Yeah, but that has been the assumption from Congress because that's been the settled law for decades and the Supreme Court just got rid of it because they don't like it. So, okay, I guess if Democrats take control again, they can come back and say, okay, we want to be very clear here, carbon is included. Yeah, on and on.

Krystal Ball (33:28)

I think that's good, actually.

Ryan Grim (33:30)

But yeah, anyway, we thought it was useful to play both back to back because it Also, we looked DeLauro's 83. Oh, wow, AOC's what, 37. Good point. And so we like people who are fighting, you know, for the environment. You know, we need people at their best.

Krystal Ball (33:54)

Like, come on, that's a really good point. And also I think it was useful to play clips back to back because as much as we probably disagree with Zeldin on a number of issues, like he's slippery, he's a, an effective defender. This is where Trump, he's possibly one of the names for doj, successor to Pam Bondi. Because Trump really likes Lee Zeldin. Exactly. Over clips like that. So the other thing I wanted to mention, Ryan, is this was from Politico last month. They had a little blurb in their influence newsletter, which is a great window into Washington. Better than playbook, they wrote. Behind Bayer success. Biotech company Bayer scored a massive win last month when President Donald Trump signed an executive order boosting domestic production of the active ingredient in Roundup weed killer. That was for national security purposes. Keep that in mind. Back in February, in a new report, Politico writes, our colleagues Marsha Brown and Cheyenne Haslett will pull back the curtain on how the company made its case in Washington. Bayer CEO met with top White House officials last year and said the company could absorb billions of dollars in litigation costs from lawsuits alleging that glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup, caused cancer. I think They've already paid $12 billion in settlements over that point. This is in the Mother Jones article we talked about earlier. But 12 billion in settlements, they always settle. They never let it go through court. They settle. So take that for what you will. But it couldn't also face down the regulatory uncertainty and what executives saw as the prospect of a government ban. It might leave the US Market, Bayer told the White House, taking of the most bless you, widely used products on U.S. farmland, the U.S. the president ultimately sided with the agriculture industry, taking bears threat to leave seriously enough to sign an executive order. That caused us a lot of political heartburn, said a White House official. They know that their own voters are not happy with this. The official, however, insisted that the administration was concerned with protecting the supply chain for all kinds of critical minerals, irrespective of Bayer's lobbying. The arguments the company made, the official said, were already being made inside the admin well before Bayer made any demands. They have also spent a truly incredible amount of money lobbying. That's not, I'm sure that's not surprising to anybody, but here I have the numbers in front of me. During 2025, they spent more than $9 million lobbying the federal government. So that's what $9 million buys you

Ryan Grim (36:10)

here in Washington, D.C. up next, LeBean Mohammad, former TikTok official, joins us to talk about his several years of experience there dealing with congressional pressure trying to get TikTok to stop letting the American and global public know what was going on in Gaza.

Ad Voice (36:30)

If you're feeling off fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal. You're not alone. Meet Oestra from Inner Balance. The first all in one prescription strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop, 10 seconds a day. Oester replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third party tested to ensure the highest quality. Visit innerbalance.com today to start feeling like yourself again. That's innerbalance.com support for the show comes

Sponsor Voice (37:03)

from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor supply suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S P500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available@public.comDisclosures have you heard about Klarna?

Podcast Announcer (38:05)

Klarna is an app designed to make everyday spending simpler and more transparent. It gives you flexibility to decide how you want to pay, whether that's paying right away, paying later, or spreading payments over time, depending on what works best for you. Everything is managed in the Klarna app so you can keep track of purchases and stay organized. You can also discover deals and even earn cash back when you shop through the Klarna app with participating brands. It's all about flexibility and staying in control of how and when you pay. Download the Klarna app today or visit Klarna to learn more. Terms Apply California Resident Loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Finance Law License NMLS Number 1353190 Klarna Balance Account required to be eligible for cashback points. Limitations, terms and conditions apply.

Ryan Grim (39:05)

Over the weekend, in a surprising upset in Utah's 1st congressional district, the Democratic Party there endorsed Leben Muhammad, a kind of newcomer to the race for the party's endorsement. Doesn't mean the primary is over. It's kind of a weird system that they've got there. But interestingly, we had already booked Lieben to come on the show to talk about his previous experience serving on the Congressional affairs team over at TikTok which he quit in order to run for Congress. And apparently now a serious contender. Not just a serious contender, but maybe with Nate Bluein and. And Brian McAdams. Ben McAdams. Is it Brian or Ben McAdams? Ben McAdams, the former member of Congress. We got a serious race on our hands. So, Leben, thanks so much for joining us.

Leben Muhammad (39:54)

Thank you. This is one of my favorite shows. Congrats on getting 2 million subscribers. You're killing it. It's a testament to the great reporting work that you're all doing and highlighting the opinions that need to be heard.

Ryan Grim (40:10)

No, we appreciate it. We're going to have Robert Pape on next. He always loves to glaze our audience. And then our show, it's like a

Krystal Ball (40:21)

Trump Cabinet meeting here.

Ryan Grim (40:24)

It's a great way to start, no doubt about it. But first of all, if you would have told me when we were talking last week or the week before that, you're like, yeah, I think I'm going to actually win the Democratic Party endorsement. I would have been like, okay, this guy's kind of. This guy's kind of losing it a little bit. How did you pull this off? Did you come in with an organized support base, or do you think that you swayed a lot of people at the convention?

Leben Muhammad (40:50)

I think a little bit of both. We organized, but not in a typical way that politics is organized. We just organized with real community leaders who are on the ground, typically not in the political process, but are the true service providers doing the real implementation work, working with our homeless community, our displaced communities, working with our refugee communities. Something about the Salt Lake Valley in this district is the west side is basically an area that consolidates a lot of our marginalized groups and has been long underrepresented, not only on the federal level, but across our government. Positions in this new district flipped from from +20 points Republican to +24 percentage points Democrat. And it presents a new opportunity to have leadership that reflects their perspective as well, the progressive perspective, the working class's perspective. So there's a lot of excitement on the ground for our candidacy. And the way that we got this done ultimately is showing up with the message that they want to hear, which is fighting for affordability and showing a character that they can trust and believe.

Ryan Grim (42:02)

And so we'll cover this race more down the road for now. I wanted to get a little bit of your story on TikTok. And so October 7th happens, you and I were talking about this before. So October 7th happens, you were actually. So you're working for TikTok at the time in their kind of congressional affairs office. And you're in Mecca on a pilgrimage with Palestinian friends. So talk about what that experience was like while you're. I assume that TikTok was like, yeah, you need to check in too now, because, like, this is a major world shaping development. So what was that like? That's gotta be an experience that you're never gonna forget.

Leben Muhammad (42:48)

Yeah, absolutely. It was one of the most pivotal moments in my life and in my perspective. So quick background, context. My former role is I used to manage the businesses responses to congressional investigations and political investigations at large. What that means is anytime they want to send a letter, there's a briefing request, testimony request for an executive. I was the one either writing the responses, providing the responses, or preparing sent an executive for those engagements. So I just answered her questions all the time. And I was in this new position as some colleagues of my one on maternity leave, another one left the team. And it was just kind of me and I'm just learning. And after October 7th happened, I was with Palestinian family who have known since I was just a small child. And they were telling me in real time, as things are unfolding, their childhood home blown to pieces. It was a father and a son that I was with, particularly the son, his wife's entire family killed. And to experience something like that in real time as people that you love and care about are finding the news, it was. It was a moment that I truly internalized what the apartheid state of Israel really is, what they're capable of and what that means in the ordinary people's lives. I've always known what the issue is. I've always been pro Palestinian. But it's different when it becomes real and you see it. And in my job at TikTok, we're getting all these inquiries from different elected officials, pro Israeli or lobbying organizations. You know, I think ADL and all of those. And I'm the person that has to respond.

Ryan Grim (44:57)

How did they like that when you would show up at these meetings?

Krystal Ball (45:01)

Well, I was also gonna ask what just like help us understand, you know, from the position that you were in, how quickly. This was obviously a huge, maybe the biggest political challenge that TikTok faced in its entire existence after it happened. Probably no exaggeration to say that this is what led to ultimately the Trump administration selling TikTok to American companies. So talk to us about the pressure on the inside. And then Ryan's question of how people reacted when you shared, you know, your vantage point at some of these Meetings as well.

Leben Muhammad (45:31)

Well, great question. So the pressure was unbelievable. Words cannot describe the amount of pressure that existed. And it became the number one headwind for the company that could result in the lack of its existence in the largest consumer market in the entire world. We were getting inbound inquiries, and this is public information. You could see a lot of these letters online, I mean, every few days, every other day from pro Israeli lobbying organizations, from pro Israel perspective, legislators. And the company was just being inundated. But what's really interesting is the lack of questions and investigations and inquiries coming from the pro Palestinian perspective. And this experience actually made me understand exactly how this influence really works. It's more than money, it's persistence, it's the sophistication behind their lobbying efforts. And they make you feel like you're in a bubble, that their perspective is the only perspective that exists because of the volume that you're dealing with. And everybody knows in the company what it is, the pressure that exists. And you have to feel like you're walking on eggshells because you know at the end of the day that the ultimate purpose of this business, like any other business, is to make profit. And the biggest risk to risk profit at the current moment is the pro Israel perspective threatening to participate in the efforts to ban the platform. So it was very difficult, but it was a fulfilling experience because we were honestly fighting back for a long time, up until the bill passed and even for a little while after that, and not capitulating. And the reason we didn't capitulate is because of polarity. I think people underestimate the benefit polarity has in our geopolitical environments when it comes to tech. Yeah.

Ryan Grim (47:24)

Explain what you mean by that. That, I think is an interesting point. What do you mean by polarity?

Leben Muhammad (47:30)

Yes. So you have the United States of America, which is the largest consumer market in the world. And not only that, they also produce the most volume of content on the global scale. So the ability for the business to be able to generate profit even outside of the United States is reliant on the volume and quality of the content creators and the content that's being made here. At the same time, the parent company has a number of subsidiaries in China that are making immense amount of money and doing really well. So if the company capitulates to the US Perspective, well, they're going to risk their interest in China. And if they capitulate to the Chinese perspective, well, they're going to risk their interests in the US So the business for a long time was incentivized to do the only thing that was justifiable, which is the right thing. At the end of the day, they're not a nation state. And if a country is coming after you, it's quite difficult to defend yourself. And so for a while, I believe that's the reason why they were not capitulating. And the pro Palestinian movement and progressive causes were able to be really successful on the platform. But now that polarity has been stripped with the acquisition, and it's part of the reason why I decided to leave the company and run for Congress, because I just didn't feel comfortable anymore that the motives of the new ownership would be in the right place. Not because of any evidence specifically, but just the rhetoric and the intentions that seem to be clear.

Ryan Grim (49:03)

And so back to my earlier question. Let's say the ADL comes in for a meeting, or you get told you got to go visit the ADL or one of these other groups. What was your reaction? You know, I think, you know, they're ready to pressure TikTok into, you know, capitulating on whatever particular issue. What was the reaction when Lehman Mohamed walks into the room?

Leben Muhammad (49:26)

I think the last thing they would want is a person like myself to be the one answering the questions. At the end of the day, the policies are the policies, and I was answering things in an unbiased way. And ultimately the company was operating in an unbiased manner. The fundamental issue of their concern was the volume of content. And the volume of content has nothing to do with the business. It's a reflection of the people. TikTok and these other platforms. It's not only a TikTok issue. They're not putting a camera in front of your face saying, please make this a piece of content. But these people wanted to address that. And the only way to do that is throttling, and the company was not willing to do that.

Krystal Ball (50:07)

And Ryan, can you set up this situation of what we know about Ryan, Crystal and saga on TikTok?

Leben Muhammad (50:14)

Yeah.

Ryan Grim (50:15)

So let. This is kind. This is kind of interesting. It is interesting. I think it's legitimately and it's related a little bit to the way that the politics inside kind of TikTok are evolving. Crystal and I started and soccer too.

Krystal Ball (50:31)

Hunk got on TikTok.

Ryan Grim (50:32)

We started doing TikTok a little while ago. And then I in particular, there's several accounts that started, like, impersonating me. And I'm like, okay, whatever, that's fine. Like in person, just stripping the videos and like, doing an account that's like Very similar to me. There's one up there now. It's like RyanW Grim underscore. Like they throw an underscore at the end. And I started getting bothered when they started DMing people. You want to like, rip off my content, fine. Like what? Whatever. But they started DMing people pretending to be me. I'm like, oh, this is actually not good. Like, this could go in very dark direction fast if, like, somebody wanted to do something, you know, gross or something and claim it was me. So I reached out to TikTok. They're like, well, we can't do anything, you know, And a bunch of people were reporting this account. And they're like, well, you. They're not impersonating anybody because this person's a nobody, because they're not verified. So you can't impersonate nobody. I was like, oh, okay, so let me apply for verification. That's been like more than six month process now at this point where originally they're telling me that the articles that I was submitting about me were not from reputable news outlets, even though they were like the New York Times and the Washington Post. I'm like, okay, that's kind of funny. TikTok doesn't find them credible. I don't either. But who then is credible if you don't think the Times and Post are? So then, Levon, you had talked to some. Some colleagues internally and tried to help Crystal and me get going. Crystal, by the way, a former federal candidate for office. Like, there's a rule that basically any federal candidate is supposed to get verified. And they still are like, no, f you, we're not gonna verify you. So just imposters go. So like, as somebody who's been involved in this kind of verification process, like, why do they care? Why do they care so much? Like, it wasn't when I applied, it was like, not even a big deal. I'm just like trying to get these imposter accounts not to be doing these fake accounts. But it seems like it's much more important to them that Crystal and I not be verified than it is to us to get verified. I'm not even using the platform as much anymore. What is going on here? What's your sense of the politics internally?

Leben Muhammad (52:44)

Yeah, it's difficult for me to be able to speculate the rationale behind why you or Krystal were not verifying. I do believe that they're still reviewing your verification applications, and hopefully they go, well, I will say, in my opinion, it's quite obvious that you guys Both and Sagar included, far beyond me the threshold of requirements that are necessary to be able to receive a verification. And you are correct, there is a policy, the acronym is gpppa but under that, that there is a requirement for government and political accounts, including a federal congressional candidate, to be verified. However, there's a gray area that's unclear if that applies retroactively since she's no longer a candidate. So I'm unsure there, but we'll see. I will say though, as you're somebody that was nominated for what was it, a Pulitzer, Right? Yeah.

Ryan Grim (53:46)

Well, we used to be in the mix for those. Yeah.

Krystal Ball (53:49)

I'm sorry, we run. Won the actual iHeartradio award.

Leben Muhammad (53:52)

Yeah.

Krystal Ball (53:53)

Does that mean nothing?

Ryan Grim (53:54)

That's true. I heart iheartradio Best podcasts.

Leben Muhammad (53:58)

I'll say this, if any of my old colleagues who are watching this help them out, they deserve it. They're good people who are advocating for the right thing ultimately definitely meet all of the requirements that are necessary. So I encourage you to do that. And I'm quite confident that they haven't violated any community guidelines. And if they have, you should be able to demonstrate that to them. And ultimately what I really like to talk about as well is this campaign.

Ryan Grim (54:26)

Before you go, I wanted to ask you, I wanted to ask you one, one camp, kind of a strategic question about the campaign. So Nate Bluein is kind of. Well, there were two progressive candidates before you got in. One of them seems to have kind of torched her campaign over some like wild, like sexual, like me too stuff. I don't know if she's still a serious candidate anymore. But Nate Bluein has the. You're backed by Ilhan Omar and also I saw that the minority leader, the Democratic state minority leader was at the convention also endorsing you. So that gives you an interesting kind of stretch of endorsements. Nate Bluein's got Bernie Sanders endorsement. So one thing I wanted to ask you. There's so much splitting of the vote among kind of progressive candidates that, that it often leads to the more centrist kind of corporate backed candidate winning. So I'm curious, would you commit if within what should the threshold be two weeks of the mail in ballots dropping, if you're no longer kind of a seriously viable candidate. Sweet. I'd figure out how to decide that. Would you withdraw and endorse the kind of leading populist candidate candidate?

Leben Muhammad (55:40)

Yeah, my answer to that question is quite simple. I think. I believe I proved that I am the viable candidate that is able to consolidate the support and beat Ben McAdams. Ben McAdams is backed by APAC. He is a Citris at that I would say basically a Republican. And Nate Blumen didn't be Bam McAdams. Bambi Nick. Believe him be bent. So I think that is the answer to that question. There's some controversies around him. I'm not gonna ridicule him for that. I believe in forgiveness and trying to, you know, see a path forward for him to come back from this. He's been doing a lot of great work since then and I commend him on that. But what's also true is most voters are gonna get that ballot in the mailbox and they're gonna do their little 5 minute Google search and it would be a shame that in the most vote progressive open seat in the entire nation that we lose a working class movement because we can't pass that Google search test because of a scandal. We need a person with a track record of both integrity and results that's advocating for the right things and those are benchmarks that I believe I uniquely meet and I'm capable of doing even more than that, which is bringing new people into the process, which is going to be paramount to be able to be Ben McAdams. So the answer to your question is yes, I do believe in consolidation of the progressive ideology and movement, but I believe that it needs to be behind the person that can survive, you know, a negative ad campaign.

Ryan Grim (57:17)

And we'll ask, we'll end up, we'll ask Nate the same question if people are curious. I think the thing you're referring to is there some old comments of his bashing Mormons?

Leben Muhammad (57:26)

Well, more in the comments. Yeah. He admitted to a hate crime defecating on the place of worship of the predominant faith and our state and a number of other things, but I'm not going to.

Ryan Grim (57:40)

That's a tough one to overcome.

Leben Muhammad (57:42)

Yeah, I don't know if that's going to be able to survive the Google search test. Right. We need somebody that's going to make sure that we have healthcare as a human right, housing that for our unhoused and make sure that we can get that as a human right. Somebody that's going to fight to abolish ICE and, and build an immigration system that's rooted in our shared humanity. Somebody that's going to fight to stop funding endless wars and the genocide of our brothers and sisters and Gaza fundamentally. Somebody that's going to focus on American diplomacy abroad and our own dignity at home and that cannot be jeopardized simply because the character of the individual is not able to meet the mark to be elected. This is more than just a person them, it's about the movement and we need somebody that can create it and meet it.

Ryan Grim (58:30)

All right, well Leben, appreciate you coming on. We'll be following this race. This is a really interesting one. Thanks for joining us.

Leben Muhammad (58:39)

Thank you Ryan and thank you Emily. This is interesting conversation and I hope you guys get your verification.

Krystal Ball (58:46)

Not me, I'm not on TikTok. I'm one of the good ones. All right, thank you.

Leben Muhammad (58:50)

You take care.

Podcast Announcer (58:51)

Bye.

Ad Voice (58:52)

If you're feeling off fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal. You're not alone. Meet Oestra from Inner Balance, the first all in one prescription strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop 10 seconds a day. Oester replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third party tested to ensure the highest quality. Visit innerbalance.com today to start feeling like yourself again. That's innerbalance.com support for the show comes

Sponsor Voice (59:25)

from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductors suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S P500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures if you're looking

Podcast Announcer (60:25)

for more flexibility in how you pay for everyday purchases, meet Klarna. Klarna lets you decide whether to pay now, pay later, or spread payments over time. All managed right in the Klarna app. Download the Klarna app today or visit klarna.com to learn more Terms apply. California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Finance Law License NMLS Number 1353190 Klarna Balance Account required to be eligible for cashback points Limitations, terms and conditions apply.

Krystal Ball (60:56)

We're joined once again by Professor Robert Pape over at the University of Chicago, also the author of the Escalation Trip Trap substack is just escalationtrap.substack.com where he has been covering the Iraq war from his, the Iran war from his expert perspective, having spent years actually writing about a scenario such as this. So Professor Pape, welcome back to Breaking Points.

Robert Pape (61:20)

Thank you very much for having me. And have no fear, we're soon gonna forget about that minor thing called the Iraq war.

Krystal Ball (61:27)

Oh, it's so depressing. It's so very depressing to think about. Let's, so let's just start with the OPEC news. Big News yesterday. OPEC UAE out of OPEC by May 1. What did you make of that and does it fit into.

Robert Pape (61:41)

Well, yeah, absolutely. This is part of a larger picture that happened this week. This is the week that the United States has truly lost control of the Iran war. This has all happened. It's been building and I've been talking about this, but you can now see it this week. Iran is negotiating without the United States. So Iran's going to Pakistan, it's going to Russia, it's about to go to Oman. But it's not about meeting with the United States. Our allies, which least maybe our former allies, our allies say the German leader is publicly saying that America is humiliated on the world stage. Just think about that for a moment. And the global system, the region and the global system is essentially moving on without the United States. And that's where the UAE comes in that. So I, I definitely understand that. It's, it's, it's a data point and it's thought of as a soda straw. But it's much more than that. So what I have been explaining on your show on the substack for, for weeks now is that Iran is emerging as the fourth center of world power. In fact, you got the exclusive first even before the New York Times and, and that is going to have major consequences. And it doesn't unfold all at once. It'll unfolds over time now within the region. And I said this in print and on your show. What this is going to mean is that Iran, as it gets powerful and as America loses control here and everybody sees that this is going to fragment the GCC countries, this is not going. They're not going to all respond in a wave or in unison to these changes. What you're going to see is each of them increasingly is going to act on their own. Think of them as they were part of a group and they had group interests. Well, now that America's not there to serve as a real anchor and it's now all clear for everyone to see. America's just lost control. Not losing, but lost control, it's no surprise they're fragmenting. Earlier a few weeks ago, Iraq started to move toward positions of Iran and started to become increasingly critical of American presence in Iraq. This was the beginning of this fragmentation. Now what you're seeing is the uae, they're not moving toward Iran. That's not what they're. What they're doing because they're pretty terrified Iran's about to topple, going to want to topple their government. What they're doing is they're fragmenting. They're not going to let OPEC or Saudi Arabia, who really is the main driver in opec, just run them into the ground. So that's why they are moving away. And what they're doing is moving away from a concerted counterbalancing coalition that the United States has been trying to build for years now with the Abraham Accords counterbalancing Iran. Well, this is all now just fragmenting. It's falling apart. And this is, you're only seeing the beginning of the fragmentation. This is likely going to get worse and America can't stop it. Notice nobody's even bothering to consult President Trump here to say, well, do you think you could change the UAE's mind? What do you think about this? They don't care. And that's really devastating for America's interests, America's role in the world. And it's kind of hard, I think, for a lot of people to imagine, although I bet, saying to expect this. I think now the reality is just kind of hard to accept here that it really is the case that this is all tragic. But it was predictable. And you got basically the decisions of one guy in the world. President Trump has enormous power and he's used that power to devastatingly negative consequences for America, the region, much of the world's economy, and to the growing power of America's leading rivals.

Krystal Ball (66:23)

It puts those reports that the Saudis were pushing for the Iran war behind the scenes in interesting context, too.

Ryan Grim (66:28)

Yeah, indeed. So when we started this program, Brent crude prices were at, I think, $114 a barrel. They're now as we're kind of getting towards the end of the show, up to $117 a barrel. That's despite an enormous amount of, of American pressure to keep the prices down, both through kind of deliberate attempts at spreading nonsense about Iranians are headed to Islamabad. They're about to capitulate. They said they're collapsing.

Krystal Ball (67:00)

We won.

Ryan Grim (67:00)

They want to open this trade plus actual material manipulation, using the power of the US treasury to actually get into the markets and play with the numbers as you do your kind of forecasting. What does $117 a barrel oil do to those calculations and what does it say about what room Trump has to maneuver?

Robert Pape (67:30)

Well, what we are seeing, and we've talked about this before, is there is a trajectory here with the Strait of Hormuz being closed down and everybody now knows closed down 20% of the world's oil, 30% fertilizer. But the trajectory is in the first 45 days, we're now at day 60. The first 45 days, it was simply price rising and price rising notably. But in anticipation of stage two, which started about, actually two weeks ago, it's this middle stage where, where shortages, actual shortages are appearing. And that has been recorded here. You know, the worry about the jet fuel Europe. And this is just the beginning of all this. But that is what you are seeing now. And this is going to get worse because all the ships that were in transit over the last couple of months, it could possibly still have some oil in the them, They've all hit dry dock. They've all been there. The, the storage areas, the storage bins that are full here have now started to be sucked dry. So what you are getting now is the true shortage period starting. And it actually started about 10 days ago. And we've talked a bit about this and this is why now the price of oil is, it's not like prices just went up once and then they, they, once the shortage is actually hit, it's not a probability, it's a reality. And that's what you're seeing with the price of oil. And this is unfortunately something that's going to go on because as shortages occur, it's supply and demand. There's still demand for this, but there's less of it. So the price of what's left must go up. That's the only way to sort that out out. And so that's why the price is going to go up. And this was fully predictable. This is not a, you know, the markets may have tried to pretend, Donald Trump may have tried to Pretend. But you know, reality has a way of coming in and showing its ugly head. And that's what you are seeing. And unfortunately, May is going to be this period where the real shortage is and those effects are going to be start to be felt. And then by the middle of May, probably the end of May, you will see actual contraction occurring. You'll Lufthansa announced, for example a week ago it would lay off or not lay out. It would have 20,000 flights canceled, these short haul flights canceled. Well, this is probably then going to lead to in a month, a few weeks later layoff that is, you will start to see in the middle of May, end of May, you're going to start to see rising inflation. The prices going up equals inflation. And you'll see the beginning then side by side of rising unemployment. This is just though the beginning. This is the first 90 days. Now as we get into 120 days, these things will simply get worse. That's what happened in the 1970s. It was called the misery index. We haven't used that term since I was a kid. I was a kid. And that term was really quite common because it went on for years and it got worse well before it got better. It didn't just get better, it went on for years. Interest rates on homes went up to 16%. My grandparents had to pay to buy a home at one point. And so the what you're seeing is that's the trajectory we're on and it'll start to be called again, I suspect the misery index, maybe the Trump misery index.

Krystal Ball (71:18)

Well, and there were dueling reports in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal. They weren't really dueling. They're basically saying actually that what the rub is right now is Iran has said they will come to the table on the strait if Trump agrees to table the nuclear negotiations. Donald Trump just last night at the state dinner said we have defeated Iran militarily. So Professor Pape, we're all trying to do our best here to learn to speak fluent Trumpees and understand what exactly he's saying and projecting or attempting to project. So what do you make of where these negotiations are right now? Because I could see someone saying, Professor Pape, Iran is willing to come to the table and reopen the strait. Does this not undermine your argument that we are headed to a potential catastrophe worse than Iran?

Robert Pape (72:08)

We just need to peel the a little bit under that phrase, what does the word open mean? And by the way, I'm going to define it the way Secretary Rubio did just recently Yesterday where he explained that what Iran means by the word opening the strait is that ships can pass through the strait as long as they coordinate with the Iranian military in advance and as long as they pay the toll, which I believe is currently set, imagined to be about $2 million a ship. A ship to pass one time. So if you have, say, 100 ships, that's $200 million a day that Iran would be bringing in, that, that's $60 billion a year. That would be also over and above that much or more that Iran would make on selling its own oil. So this is why Secretary Rubio just said this is not really an open. This not open. So what Iran is doing is going through its 10 points that it delivered to Trump. Remember when we started the ceasefire, Trump agreed to the ten point plan as a basis for negotiation. All Iran is doing is literally going through the 10 points. And, and the first point is they get to keep the straight. That is, they will, they're going to keep a tight fist on the jugular of the world's economy and they will extort costs here from the world, which is $2 million a ship. And then also they want their own oil to be, to be sold. And so they're perfectly going to be happy at manipulating the price of oil. So what also that means just to be. Also what the implication here is is that if Iran wants to keep the price of oil at 100 bucks a barrel, they know how to do that. They can regulate what happens across the strait. They can optimize, in other words, their financial earnings from controlling the strait. Strait. Now, the second point is the nuclear negotiation. So notice that before this war kicked off on February 28, Iran and the United States were in negotiations on the nuclear material. That's what was being discussed. What Iran is simply saying is that's off the table now. They're just not interested in that now. They're not saying at all when that will come back. So what that tells me is Iran is not giving up this power of the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon. And Iran is probably starting to lay the groundwork for developing nuclear weapons over the next maybe year or so. And that would also dovetail with why they're talking with Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state that helped Iran with centrifuges to start its program in the first place place. And also Russia, another nuclear weapons state that's been a military ally of Iran. So if Iran is going to pursue this very aggressive agenda to truly emerge as the fourth center of world power with nuclear weapons, it needs allies and it looks like it's working with its allies, and it's certainly working with its allies better than we're working with ours.

Ryan Grim (75:38)

Well, I think what Iran is saying here is that they're not going to discuss the nuclear issue until the naval blockade of the Strait is lifted. But at that point, I think there is real willingness to discuss it now

Robert Pape (75:48)

whether, well, I would just be, I guess I, we maybe have a slight difference of view here. They say if they will not enter face to face negotiations with America at all unless America lifts the naval blockade. So I think that's my understanding of this. Now, you may be right. I want to not get into. But it is the case that they've said that now multiple times. And again, this, this issue of postponing the nuclear negotiations here, I guess I just have the view, I'm reading it, that they really are working with others along the trajectory of gaining power. And also I just want to point out that this is going to have, have global consequences even beyond the Iran war. So Russia here is going to want something from Iran and that may be tighter coordination as Russia tries to gain power over Europe, not just in the battle space of Ukraine. And Iran and Russia together control now 30% of the world's oil. So we need to keep our eye on that. And then also we need to look over at Asia. So we shouldn't forget that all the estimates now that are coming out of the Pentagon is we have spent 50% roughly of our Patriot arsenal, our Thaad arsenal, a number of our very important precision interceptor arsenals, and that means we're leaving Taiwan essentially naked here or virtually naked. And that opens all kinds of possibilities for President Xi to want some concessions either tacitly or explicitly vis a vis U.S. relations with Taiwan. So I just point out that this is a, when I say, Trump, the United States has lost control of the Iran war and it's having global implications. It actually has global implications even beyond the price of what's happening to the world economy and the price of gasoline here at home.

Ryan Grim (78:05)

Yeah. And on the nuclear point, the trip that Raji took to Russia could also, you could imagine a world in which, well, to back up, as you know, in 2015, Russia was part of the Iran nuclear deal and Iran, through that deal agreed to ship and did, in fact ship. And I don't think most people know this. 25,000 pounds of enriched uranium to Russia.

Robert Pape (78:33)

Let me talk if it's.

Ryan Grim (78:35)

And they now have less than 1,000.

Robert Pape (78:37)

But go ahead, let me talk if it's okay, just for a minute about the JCPOA and how it came about, because I'm pretty familiar with this and one of your listeners may not know that part of the other area I've been studying for 30 years is economic pressure, economic sanctions, blockades, et cetera. Well, one of the things that's important to know is that the Obama administration had economic sanctions on Iran and then we got the nuclear deal. Well, why did that economic pressure work? It worked because Russia and China, these are the military allies, allies of Iran joined in that America's coalition against Iran. In fact, Russia stopped selling their SA300s. To give you a very specific point, but then let's back it up a little further. Why did Russia do this out of the goodness of its heart? Well, in 2008, I was part of Obama's primaries teams and I had an idea and I was on one team and a guy by the name of Sean Kay was on the NATO team. And I said to Sean on a phone call, you know, the number one issue here that we should really worry about for the Middle east, because I was on the Middle east team, was really a nuclear weapon by Iran. It would set off all kinds of issues. But in order to stop it, we need Russia, because if you could get the military ally of Iran on board. But how do you do that? We should trade missile defense, US Missile defense in Eastern Europe to get Russia's concession to go along with Obama's plan to get a counterbalancing coalition against Iran. Well, that's exactly what Obama did. So Sean wrote that up. Send it up the chain on the NATO team and lo and behold, Obama wins. And what does he do? Do he trades directly with Putin. U.S. national missile defense to get Putin's work. I mean, agreement to be part of the coalition against Iran. And that's how you got the jcpoa. That's actually. Now, how would you recreate that? Well, that means the United States would have to really give major concessions here to Putin. What would those concessions look like? They would have to be much more than simply don't send aid to Ukraine, because that's already going way down. You're probably going to have to work to undermine European support for Ukraine in a direct way if you want Putin here to even think about the idea of joining the naval blockade. And what we would be talking about about would be Putin sending a Russian ship to join the US Naval blockade. Now, that would change things. But this is the level at which we're talking about. We're not talking about minor cosmetic issues. That's not what brought Russia in with Obama and that's not what's going to bring Russia in to help with this situation. They're simply not going to bail out the United States because Russia. Lavrov just gave this page big speech a few days ago where he explained that from Russia's perspective, they're at war against the West. Well, what do you do when you're at war? You want to crush your opposition and now you have Iran and Russia meeting. What are they talking about? I think they're talking about how to do things against their common enemy.

Ryan Grim (82:14)

Sounds right. Professor Pape, always a pleasure. Thank you so much.

Robert Pape (82:19)

And I'm sorry I don't give you very many ways out of the escalation trip trap.

Krystal Ball (82:23)

That's the point. Glad to. That's right. And the escalation trap is over on Substack. You can follow Professor Pape's work there. Thank you so much again, Professor.

Robert Pape (82:34)

Yeah, thank you very much. Always a pleasure. And very smart questions and interjections. Very smart.

Krystal Ball (82:40)

Ryan will take it.

Ryan Grim (82:41)

Right.

Krystal Ball (82:42)

Thank you.

Robert Pape (82:43)

Okay, bye. Bye.

Krystal Ball (82:45)

Ryan, I think what we've learned today is that you run guest segments like a Trump cabinet meeting.

Ryan Grim (82:52)

As long as you start with a lot of praise and continue the praise throughout it, then the interview is gonna go well.

Krystal Ball (82:57)

The praise is its own escalation trap.

Ryan Grim (83:00)

That's right.

Krystal Ball (83:00)

Once you start, it's gotta hype it up. Pleasing Ryan.

Ryan Grim (83:04)

That's right. Well, you were an incredible interviewer and brilliant question.

Krystal Ball (83:09)

Smart question. I mean, I have to agree, your questions are very smart. So.

Ryan Grim (83:14)

And we have the greatest comments. So our YouTube commenters, nobody's smarter.

Krystal Ball (83:21)

Greatest everything all around. Well, thank you everyone for tuning in today. As a reminder, Ryan's going to be live in a debate with Scott Jennings on the Afterparty Channel tonight. 9:00pm it's on. Yeah, it's an interesting one. The students had great questions. Actually, it would have been great if the students just asked you guys questions for like two hours. That would have been wild. But anyway, breakingpoints.com is where you can go to get a premium subscription. Otherwise, Krystal and Sagar will see you back here tomorrow. We'll see you Friday.

Ad Voice (84:04)

If you're feeling off fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal. You're not alone. Meet Oestra from Inner Balance, the first all in one prescription strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop, 10 seconds a day. Oester replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third party tested to ensure the highest quality. Visit innerbalance.com today to start feeling like yourself again. That's innerbalance.com if you're looking for more

Podcast Announcer (84:37)

flexibility in how you pay for everyday purchases, meet Klarna. Klarna lets you decide whether to pay now, pay later, or spread payments over time. All managed right in the Klarna app. Download the Klarna app today or visit klarna.com to learn more. Terms Apply California Resident Loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Finance Law License NMLS Number 1353190 Klarna Balance Account required to be eligible for cash back points. Limitations, terms and conditions apply.

Sponsor Voice (85:06)

Here's the truth. You could literally be adored by everyone and then come home and still get completely ignored by your own cash cat. It's classic cat behavior, but new Shiba Premium Puree is a lickable treat that changes all that. They're protein rich, made with bone broth and have the smooth, creamy texture cats go crazy for, especially when it's hand fed. Yeah, it's more than a treat, it's a fast pass to favorite human status. So feed your cat Sheba and go from totally ignored to truly adored in just 12 days guaranteed or your money back. Learn more@shiba.com com this is an iHeart podcast.

Podcast Announcer (85:42)

Guaranteed human.